#WalshPolicyFramework

🌃 Previzualizare Jackson Hole | Will Wash Hawk sau Dove? În această seară, la ora 20:30, datele PCE din SUA din iulie vor fi publicate primele; Vineri, Wash a urcat pe scenă. Semnalele de inflație și de politică politică ar putea afecta din nou acțiunile americane, piețele de aur și cripto. #杰克逊霍尔临近, poate Wash să-și clarifice direcția politică? Faceți clic pe subiect pentru a vedea mai multe știri conexe. Hai să discutăm: Judecați dacă Wash va trimite un semnal mai belic sau dovish? 📊 Vrei să ții pasul cu piața de capital din SUA? OKX este acum listat pe $SPY și $QQQ, ținând pasul cu fluctuațiile pieței americane și profitând de oportunitățile de tranzacționare aduse de discursurile băncilor centrale.

🚨 TONIGHT COULD BE A BIG REPRICING NIGHT FOR BTC Everyone is asking the same question: Will Walsh signal a September rate cut? I think that’s the wrong question. The bigger issue tonight is how the Fed defines the inflation problem — and how much room it really has to ease. #WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest

🔥 Jackson Hole Annual Meeting — Will Warsh’s Debut Ignite the Market? ⏰ Beijing Time: August 28, 22:00 Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is set to deliver his first keynote speech at Jackson Hole since taking office, putting his views on inflation, interest rates, and future monetary policy firmly in the spotlight. 📊 How the U.S. stock market reacted on previous Jackson Hole days: • 2018: +0.62% • 2019: -2.59% • 2020: +0.17% • 2021: +0.88% • 2022: -3.37% • 2023: +0.67% #WalshPolicyFramework

🚨 TONIGHT COULD BE A BIG REPRICING NIGHT FOR BTC Everyone is asking the same question: Will Walsh signal a September rate cut? I think that’s the wrong question. The bigger issue tonight is how the Fed defines the inflation problem — and how much room it really has to ease. #WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest

🚨 TONIGHT COULD BE A BIG REPRICING NIGHT FOR BTC Everyone is asking the same question: Will Walsh signal a September rate cut? I think that’s the wrong question. The bigger issue tonight is how the Fed defines the inflation problem — and how much room it really has to ease. #WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest #WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest

To be honest, I don’t expect Wash’s speech tonight to create much volatility across crypto or U.S. equities. The main focus of the Jackson Hole meeting is financial innovation, so it’s unlikely we’ll get any clear short-term guidance on whether the Fed will cut rates in September. The reason for holding rates steady is fairly straightforward. While U.S. inflation appears relatively manageable, #WalshPolicyFramework #OpenAIInferenceCostTest #AIShiftsToSoftware

In my view, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech tonight may be signaling that the worst of the negative news has already been priced in — the “boot has dropped.” From here, the market could potentially move through three stages. #WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest

PCE delivered numbers, not direction. Core inflation held at 3.3% YoY and rose 0.2% MoM, while headline PCE came in slightly hotter at 3.7%. Q2 GDP stayed at 1.5% annualized. Sticky inflation, resilient underlying demand, and no clean signal for the Fed. Rate pricing moved, then came back. September hike odds jumped from about 36% to 44% after the release before easing to 36-37%. Odds of at least one hike by year-end remain near 73%. The broader path barely changed. That shifts attention to Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chair, Friday at 10AM. The symposium's theme is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy." A $300B stablecoin market and the GENIUS Act sit in the backdrop, though the keynote's contents are not yet public. Treasury's decision to at least double the cap on long-end liquidity-support buybacks coincided with renewed demand for inflation and dollar-risk hedges. Through Aug 26, BTC was on track for its best August since 2017. The hedge trade is broadening: · August BTC ETF inflows have topped $3B, on track for the strongest month since October 2025 · Cumulative net inflows are near $54.4B, with net assets around $99B · GLD took in $3.4B in the week ended Aug 21, while GLD and IBIT re-entered the top 10 US ETFs by value traded This is not gold versus bitcoin. Both perceived hedges are being bid as investors reassess inflation, the fiscal outlook and dollar risk. Friday also brings a major BTC options expiry: · About 81,700 BTC options worth $6.44B expire at 08:00 UTC · 44,639 calls versus 37,061 puts; put/call ratio 0.83 · Max pain is near $68K · $75K holds about $236M in call OI, with another $157M at $80K Max pain is not a forecast. It misses hedging, entry costs, off-exchange positions and spot demand. But the expiry and Warsh's speech land six hours apart, with BTC near $79K after being rejected around its 50-week average near $81.1K. PCE is done. Friday is the real test. Which matters more for BTC: Warsh's policy tone or the options expiry? #PCEToJacksonHole #BTCOptionsExpiryTest #GoldVsBTCETFFlows

At 10 PM tonight, the global financial circle is all focused on one person Federal Reserve Chair Wash makes his debut as the boss at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. The current situation, to be honest, is quite tangled: · U.S. Treasury yields won't come down · Inflation is still sticky · The market can't figure out what Wash plans to do Everyone has one big question in mind: What exactly has he seen that makes him willing #WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest

#WalshPolicyFramework The Fed's biggest asset isn't lower rates. It's predictability. With inflation still above target and jobs holding up, Walsh has room to stay cautious. But if Jackson Hole fails to explain what actually triggers a policy change, markets will fill the gap themselves. That means every PCE print, jobs report and yield spike becomes a guessing game. A vague framework doesn't preserve flexibility for free. It transfers uncertainty into the dollar, bonds, gold and BTC.

Walsh's first Jackson Hole keynote arrives with the Fed's trade-off unusually exposed: core PCE remains above 2%, yet initial jobless claims have fallen to 203K. With Schmid and Hammack emphasizing inflation risks, the key signal is not a single policy preference but whether Walsh defines a repeatable reaction function. My read is that clarity on how inflation, employment and financial conditions alter policy would matter more than a hawkish or dovish label. A vague framework could leave markets repeatedly repricing the Fed-Treasury boundary on long yields, increasing volatility across the dollar, Treasuries, gold and BTC. Not advice, just analysis. #WalshPolicyFramework