#BTCOptionsExpiryTest

There’s one key BTC time point I’m watching closely today: 4 PM. ⏰ Around $6.4 billion in BTC options are set to expire at the same time. That’s a massive amount of positioning coming off the table and could bring some serious volatility. But there’s one thing I used to misunderstand about options expiry: #WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest #WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #IranOpensHormuzLane

$BTC $80K. Now What? After three long months, Bitcoin has finally kissed $80,000 again. ETFs have been on a buying spree — eight straight days, $2.6 billion poured in. Trump's pushing crypto legislation. The usual story: when the U.S. moves, the price follows. But don't pop the champagne just yet. Between $80K and $82K sits a mountain of supply — bag holders waiting to break even and bail. Add to that $6.4 billion in options expiring today

$BTC BTC $ETH Good morning brothers, currently BTC is steady at 80,000 Combining the market situation and on-chain data, a large portion of traders have not caught the first wave of the rally, and this part of off-exchange funds will form potential short-term buying pressure. So you will see that after BTC hits resistance, it hasn't pulled back significantly, nor has there been large-scale selling pressure#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest

BTC RALLIES THEN PULLS BACK — OPTIONS EXPIRY INTENSIFIES THE KEY LEVEL BATTLE ⚠️ Bitcoin pushed higher before retreating toward $80,360, while $ETH is around $2,495 and $SOL near $105.8. With a large concentration of options positions approaching expiry and major strike levels packed with liquidity, the market could see increased volatility #WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest

US Treasury bond buybacks fueled $1.92B in weekly ETF inflows, driving $BTC through $80K before settling near $77K. Real-time order data reveals:Leverage Collapse: Futures Open Interest (OI) plunged to a 5-month low (587k BTC), proving the rally was a forced short squeeze, not new overleveraged longs.Healthy Funding: Funding rates sit stable below 10%, signaling a spot-$BTC driven structure.Liquidity Pools: Heavy upside liquidation targets remain stacked around $82K–$83K. Avoid choppy intra-day.

🟠 $BTC FROM STRESS TO ABSORPTION Bitcoin's market structure appears to be moving into a different phase. After the recent recovery, a large portion of holders are back in profit. That's important because the market dynamics change when investors move from “I need to survive” to “I can finally take profit.” During the stress phase, selling is often driven by fear and forced decisions. Now, with more holders back in profit, forced selling pressure can decrease. But there's a trade-off. Profitable holders now have a reason to sell. Some investors who bought higher may use the recovery to exit at breakeven. Others may take partial profits after a strong move. That creates a potential supply overhang around current levels. 📊 THE NEXT TEST IS DEMAND This is where fresh capital becomes critical. If new demand continues entering the market and consistently absorbs the coins being sold by existing holders, Bitcoin can continue transitioning from absorption into expansion. But if profit-taking becomes stronger than new demand, the rally could lose momentum and enter another consolidation or correction. That's why I'm paying close attention to the relationship between: Holder profitability → potential selling ETF flows → fresh demand Price structure → confirmation The ETF side is particularly important because sustained institutional demand could provide the liquidity required to absorb profit-taking. 👀 WHAT I'M WATCHING A healthy market doesn't necessarily mean nobody is selling. In fact, strong bull markets often have plenty of sellers. The difference is that buyers are strong enough to absorb them. If BTC continues holding key support while demand remains consistent, profit-taking could simply become part of the market's normal rotation. But if price starts breaking important support while holder selling accelerates, the expansion thesis becomes weaker. So I'm not looking at profitable holders as purely bearish. Their selling can actually be a sign of a maturing market provided there is enough fresh demand waiting on the other side.

#$BTC surges then falls back, options expiration amplifies key level battles 6.4 billion in options expire this afternoon, 80,000 is the battleground for bulls and bears At 4 PM today, 81,700 Bitcoin options expire on Deribit, with a notional value of $6.44 billion.$#PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest

BTC has fully surpassed 80,000—how should we view the market in the new phase? This time, it was no longer a fake breakout; Bitcoin closed above the 80,000 mark, ending a prolonged grinding consolidation. This round of rally is driven by ETF capital inflows, improved macro liquidity expectations, and short covering. It no longer relies solely on contract leverage to rally; spot buying is truly entering the market, #PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest

PCE delivered numbers, not direction. Core inflation held at 3.3% YoY and rose 0.2% MoM, while headline PCE came in slightly hotter at 3.7%. Q2 GDP stayed at 1.5% annualized. Sticky inflation, resilient underlying demand, and no clean signal for the Fed. Rate pricing moved, then came back. September hike odds jumped from about 36% to 44% after the release before easing to 36-37%. Odds of at least one hike by year-end remain near 73%. The broader path barely changed. That shifts attention to Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chair, Friday at 10AM. The symposium's theme is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy." A $300B stablecoin market and the GENIUS Act sit in the backdrop, though the keynote's contents are not yet public. Treasury's decision to at least double the cap on long-end liquidity-support buybacks coincided with renewed demand for inflation and dollar-risk hedges. Through Aug 26, BTC was on track for its best August since 2017. The hedge trade is broadening: · August BTC ETF inflows have topped $3B, on track for the strongest month since October 2025 · Cumulative net inflows are near $54.4B, with net assets around $99B · GLD took in $3.4B in the week ended Aug 21, while GLD and IBIT re-entered the top 10 US ETFs by value traded This is not gold versus bitcoin. Both perceived hedges are being bid as investors reassess inflation, the fiscal outlook and dollar risk. Friday also brings a major BTC options expiry: · About 81,700 BTC options worth $6.44B expire at 08:00 UTC · 44,639 calls versus 37,061 puts; put/call ratio 0.83 · Max pain is near $68K · $75K holds about $236M in call OI, with another $157M at $80K Max pain is not a forecast. It misses hedging, entry costs, off-exchange positions and spot demand. But the expiry and Warsh's speech land six hours apart, with BTC near $79K after being rejected around its 50-week average near $81.1K. PCE is done. Friday is the real test. Which matters more for BTC: Warsh's policy tone or the options expiry? #PCEToJacksonHole #BTCOptionsExpiryTest #GoldVsBTCETFFlows

🚨 BTC JUST TRIGGERED A 7-YEAR LIQUIDATION EVENT — BUT HERE’S THE REAL BATTLE! Bitcoin just ripped 26% higher, fueled by one of the biggest short squeezes since 2019. 🔥 But don’t get too excited yet — liquidations can create the move, but they don’t necessarily sustain it. 🎯 The level I’m watching: $83,300 This is where the real fight begins. 🏦 Institutional demand: $2.23B in weekly ETF inflows is adding serious buying pressure, while exchange #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #DailyOrbit