#LongYields5%NewNormal
About LongYields5%NewNormal
Long-end Treasury yields held after the Fed's Sept 16 25bps hike. The 10-year dipped to around 4.95% then returned to near 5%, the 2-year to around 4.73%, the 30-year above 5%. Walsh attributed the long-end to stronger growth, AI-driven capex, and geopolitics, but did not address fiscal deficits. If the 2-year stabilizes while the 10-year and 30-year hold above 5%, long-end pricing may reflect structural capital demand, inflation risk, and term premium, lifting the floor for high-beta assets.
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Épinglé
Gestion d'actifs JPMorgan : Les bons du Trésor américain ont chuté jusqu'au "point de douleur maximal", il est temps d'acheter les obligations d'État à long terme.
Bob Michele, directeur des investissements chez JPMorgan Asset Management, a déclaré que son équipe avait commencé à acheter des obligations d'État à long terme des États-Unis, du Japon et de l'Australie, estimant que les prix actuels étaient "vraiment trop bas" et que le marché obligataire avait atteint un point critique de "douleur extrême".
Mercredi, lors d'une interview accordée à Bloomberg TV, Michele a indiqué que plusieurs facteurs positifs convergeaient : depuis la hausse des taux de la
#LongYields5%NewNormal The Fed hiked 25bps, but the long end barely blinked 👀
The 10-year briefly dipped toward 4.95% before returning near 5%, while the 30-year stayed above 5%.
What caught my attention is the curve. If short yields stabilize but long yields stay elevated, this may be structural, not just Fed policy.
AI capex, inflation risk and term premium are competing for capital.
For BTC and high-beta assets, 5% long yields could become the new hurdle.
🚨 THE 5% LINE JUST BROKE — AND BITCOIN IS FEELING IT.
The US 10Y Treasury yield has officially pushed above 5%, its highest level since 2007.
Why does this matter for crypto?
Because when risk-free US yields get this attractive, money has less reason to chase risky assets.
#DailyOrbit
92.4%! Markets are heavily pricing a 25bp September rate hike.
The bigger risk is what comes next: October expectations are also pointing toward further tightening, keeping pressure on liquidity and risk assets.
For $BTC and $ETH, the key isn’t just the hike—it’s the Fed’s guidance. A hawkish tone could add selling pressure, while a less-hawkish message may ease some of the pressure.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates
$BTC is hovering around the $76,000 level.
US stock futures are up ahead of today's FOMC meeting, while oil is down.
Pre-market stock trading insights:
▫️Nasdaq futures is up 0.54%
▫️S&P futures is up 0.34%#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates
-year US Treasury yield breaks 5%
Latest data
The 10-year US Treasury yield has surpassed the 5% threshold, reaching a recent high. The risk-free yield has risen, putting pressure on BTC simultaneously, with continuous outflows from spot ETFs.
币圈阿飞-OKB
#10年期美债收益率突破5%
最新数据
10年期美债收益率站上5%关口，创近年高位，无风险收益抬升，BTC同步承压，现货ETF资金持续流出。
市场共识
看空一方认为，美债收益吸引力变强，资金会从加密这类风险资产撤出；也有人觉得，主要是美国财政发债太多推高利率，短期脉冲冲击，未必会持续维持高位。
底层逻辑推敲
美债是全球资产定价锚，收益率破5%，持有BTC的机会成本变高。资金会优先选择确定性美债，风险偏好下降，币圈容易承压，后续重点看FOMC会议表态。
个人观点（仅个人观点，不构成投资建议）#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
$BTC $ZEC $XAU
the more critical time period tonight.
The market's core focus right now is still the FOMC; the expectation of a 25bp rate hike is already very high, close to 90%, so the simple fact of a "rate hike" has been largely priced in. What will truly determine the future direction of $BTC and $ETH is how hawkish Powell will be and whether further rate hikes will continue.
BTC is currently still weak, and ETH jointly suppr#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates
The Fed just did something it hadn’t done since 2023.
Rates: +25 bps → 3.75–4.00%.
Vote: 12–0.
Signal: policymakers still see another hike this year.
Yet BTC held near $75.7K immediately after the decision instead of producing the expected macro shock. The hike was priced in; the forward path is now the real trade.