#IEADieselShortageTo2027
About IEADieselShortageTo2027
IEA warned Oct 14 that diesel shortages may last into H2 2027, even if refinery output recovers by year-end. Sep diesel and gasoil exports fell ~700K bpd YoY amid Middle East and Russian disruptions. Ukraine resumed refinery attacks; Ryazan caught fire. Putin vowed a response; capacity losses are unclear. US-Russia diesel deals await deliveries despite eased curbs. IEA is pursuing reserve releases, including diesel. Can supply and reserves offset export risks and ease fuel prices and inflation?
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#Russia and the US advance diesel supply cooperation, but energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine still faces disagreements
On October 9, after a call between Trump and Putin, it was announced that Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 tons of diesel to the US and global markets, with an additional 500,000 tons in November and a further 1 million tons thereafter, plus a short-term delivery of 3 million barrels. The US Treasury simultaneously relaxed sanctions on Russian diesel trade
Progress toward direct Russia-US diesel contracts matters primarily as a logistics test: easing trade curbs and allowing sanctioned tankers to move unsanctioned products could reduce freight pressure if deliveries actually begin.
That does not yet establish a fuel-price or inflation outcome. Lawmaker and European opposition may still determine whether contractual progress becomes usable supply.
#USRussiaDieselContracts
Putin's envoy Dmitriev said that the agreement to supply Russian diesel to the U.S. "opens the door to new joint projects."
Moscow is already discussing other areas of economic cooperation with Washington, he said.
Anton Gerashchenko
President Trump:
"I have just concluded a highly successful discussion with President Vladimir Putin, of Russia, wherein it was agreed that Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel to the American and Global Marketplace, another 500,000 Tons during the month of November, and 1,000,000 Tons immediately thereafter.
Additionally, based on the condition of their Diesel Refineries, Russia will then deliver, within a short period of time, 3,000,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel. Between our TOTAL CONTROL of the Strait of Hormuz, and this great announcement on Russian Energy, Diesel Prices for Americans and, indeed, the World, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!
Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority. This is a very big and important announcement."
