$SOL has bounced back above $100, with the current open interest around $6.5B and the funding rate about 0.0002%, which has clearly cooled down compared to the past few days. If SOL can hold $100, the structure looks pretty good; if it breaks below $98.44, first watch to see if it's a bull trap.

On September 3rd, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that if subsequent data confirms a weakening of inflationary pressures, he tends to maintain interest rates unchanged in September. This statement caused the probability of a rate hike in September to drop directly from 63.2% the previous day to 50.4%. The S&P 500 rose 1.06%, the Nasdaq rose 1.40%, and the Dow Jones rose 1.18%. This is a typical risk appetite recovery, but I do not believe this signals a rate cut or a dovish shift. The market has simply moved from a higher likelihood of a rate hike back to an even split between hiking or not hiking. This is a marginal change in macro trading, not a real policy change, but a shift in probability distribution. Additionally, yesterday's significant gains in various crypto stocks such as $MSTR, $COIN, and $HOOD, besides being driven by a rebound in $BTC, are also related to this improvement in risk appetite. These stocks inherently have higher beta, so amplified gains are not surprising and are not the same as on-chain real income, stablecoin settlements, or regulatory certainty. Friends, please do not confuse these.

$XAU continues to maintain strength today, indicating that the market is beginning to make room for an economic slowdown. This is one of the reasons Ajian has always favored gold. It is a particularly honest asset, unlike stocks which are easily influenced by emotions, and unlike Crypto which relies heavily on narratives. Many times, it simply uses its trend to tell you the real interest rate, comparable to the 10-year US Treasury bond

Yesterday, the US 10-year yield fell back to about 4.77%, but Ajian doesn't think this means the market suddenly stopped worrying about interest rates; it's just that no one wants to make big bets before the nonfarm payrolls. In the past two days, stocks have rebounded, gold has rebounded, crypto has rebounded, and the dollar is slightly weak—everything feels like the calm before the storm, waiting for the US August nonfarm payroll report to be released. The current market expectation is for about 55,000-60,000 new jobs, an unemployment rate of about 4.1%, and average hourly earnings year-over-year of about 3.7%-3.8%. Many people only look at new jobs, but tonight you must first look at hourly wages, because what the Fed really fears is that employment cools down but wages do not fall, while oil prices remain above $90. This would create the most uncomfortable combination of being stuck in the middle. Also, one more thing to understand: if the results are close to expectations, what the market will really care about is how yields move, not whether employment is good or not. Expectations are already on the table; only exceeding expectations will change pricing. Weak employment does not necessarily benefit $BTC, and if it is too weak, the market will switch from a rate cut trade to recession and deleveraging. #长端美债收益率维持高位，债务压力升温

This week's sudden market risk-off, if Ajian were managing positions, I wouldn't suddenly sell everything off. Instead, I would first significantly reduce the impulse to "make the right judgment immediately," because it is clear that September will bring multiple key macro data and central bank meetings that will determine global asset pricing: September 4 Nonfarm Payrolls, September 10-11 US inflation data, September 15-16 FOMC, September 18 BOJ meeting This is not a period suitable for going all-in betting on a single macro direction, so I would choose to keep positions, reduce leverage, and wait for the data to provide answers. I would rather earn less for a while than wipe out the entire quarter's risk budget due to one wrong judgment#

Figure, a blockchain-based consumer lending platform company, has just completed the $717M acquisition of Kiavi, the largest residential bridge loan institution in the U.S., which will add over $7B in annual mortgage loan business and AI asset platform capabilities. Ajian specifically mentioned this to inform everyone that besides the recently popular on-chain bonds, RWA is also beginning to enter mortgages, credit, and asset services. This acquisition will expand Figure's asset sources, but the risks in the credit business will also become more complex, with defaults, valuations, recoveries, and regulations all being transmitted on-chain. However, this is precisely the most attractive aspect of RWA's real-world attributes: the more stable the returns, the heavier the legal and credit risks.

Ajian observed that since August 30, an institutional address has transferred about 142,800 $ETH to multiple CEXs, valued at approximately $345M, and continued to transfer about 39,500 ETH in the past day at an average price of around $2,420. This supply far exceeds ordinary whale transfers and is enough to impact ETH short-term liquidity. Although transferring to exchanges does not necessarily mean selling, as it could be custody, financing, market making, or OTC settlement, the potential supply has been unleashed. Combined with the signal that the ETH spot ETF stopped net inflows for 12 consecutive trading days as of yesterday, the market is likely to respond accordingly.

$BTC retraced from last week's high of around $85K to the current approximately $77K, a drop of over 6% at one point, but Ajian observed that some whales increased their holdings by about 6,765 BTC during this period, worth around $521M. Price pullbacks and accumulation by large holders can happen simultaneously, but if these addresses are not exchanges, market makers, or project wallets, this signal leans more toward mid-term accumulation and does not indicate an immediate short-term rally. Given BTC's current contracting volume and volatility, it is advised that friends avoid making bets when the direction is unclear

The just-released ADP data shows that about 38,000 jobs were added in the US private sector in August, below market expectations. Employment is cooling down, but oil prices remain above $90. So the question arises: should the Fed prioritize employment or inflation? This is the real dilemma in September. If employment continues to deteriorate, expectations for rate cuts will rise; but if oil prices push inflation back up, it will be difficult for the Fed to quickly turn dovish. Therefore, tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls report is very important, because this time the data has a special aspect: the market doesn't need very good data, it just needs to confirm whether the economy is bad enough for the Fed to stop raising rates. Let's wait for tomorrow's results and see if the nonfarm payrolls variable can outweigh other factors to become the most important indicator

Still continuous net inflow, still the resilient Ethereum, in the last 5 settled trading days, ETH ETFs have had a combined inflow of about $616.5M, while BTC ETFs during the same period only about +$252.8M. Institutional funds are treating $BTC and $ETH differently. Although the ETF flow on the ETH side is relatively more stable, the price has still fallen back to around $2,400, indicating that the inflow can only temporarily offset selling pressure and has not fully driven a price breakout. However, such continuous net inflow is undeniably a positive and encouraging signal. Watch if it can retake $2,500; the funds have already given the opportunity, now it depends on whether the price can confirm it.