小乐行情速报
小乐行情速报
专业行情快报与分析
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#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
Brothers, tonight we're opening blind boxes again.
Once the September non-farm payrolls are released, the market will definitely swing back and forth. If employment is too strong, it means the economy can still hold up, giving the Federal Reserve one more reason to continue raising rates, and $BTC might get hit first; if the data cools down, rate hike expectations will drop, and Bitcoin and $ETH might even shoot up with a strong bullish candle.
But the most annoying thing now is that the data doesn’t necessarily follow the script. The market has already priced in too much in advance, so after the release, it might surge first then drop, or even if the data is clearly negative, the price might just rally instead. The crypto world loves to mess with those who are too confident first.
Personally, I’m still watching Bitcoin’s support. If after the non-farm release Bitcoin can hold steady, it means the bulls are really strong; if it breaks key levels with volume, don’t stubbornly say it’s just a shakeout. The same goes for Ethereum: if Bitcoin holds, Ethereum has a chance to catch up; if Bitcoin dives, Ethereum usually falls even faster.
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
Brothers, this time for Micron's earnings report, the market isn't focused on how much it made in the past, but whether AI can continue to sustain the storage industry.
Right now, Nvidia and cloud providers are crazily stacking computing power; with chips available, storage can't be lacking either. As long as demand for high-bandwidth memory and server memory keeps rising, Micron's performance and guidance won't look too bad. What really matters is what management says, how far orders can be booked, and whether next year's demand can be maintained.
But the problem is obvious: the AI concept is already overheated. Even if the earnings beat expectations, the stock price might not rise; as long as the guidance isn't strong enough or the market feels the good news has been priced in, it can still open high and close low.
$MU is now a typical expectation trade; everyone knows AI needs to buy storage, the key is whether Micron can deliver an answer more exaggerated than expected.
#US long-term Treasury yields continue to rise, financing pressure heats up
Brothers, theoretically, with the Fed restarting rate hikes, risk assets should take a hit first, but Bitcoin hasn't really crashed and can even hold at high levels, which is indeed a bit unexpected.
I think the reason isn't that complicated. First, the market had already priced in the rate hike expectations in advance, so when it actually happens, the negative impact isn't that big. Second, the funds buying Bitcoin now are different from before; with institutions and ETFs coming in, the market isn't so easily smashed by a single hawkish speech.
Another point is that people may have started to doubt how long the Fed can keep raising rates. Economic pressure, employment, and debt issues are all there. Short-term rate hikes are negative, but if the market thinks this is the end of tightening, it might start pricing in a future pivot early.
But don't rush to interpret this as "rate hikes are no longer a concern." Bitcoin's current resilience doesn't mean it can rise indefinitely. As long as inflation continues to exceed expectations or the Fed keeps making tough statements, Bitcoin will still pull back. Whether $ETH can keep up also depends on whether funds stay in the market.
My view is: Bitcoin is indeed strong now, but not strong enough to ignore macro factors. If it holds key levels, the market still has room to play; once it breaks down with volume, the previous optimism will instantly turn around. $BTC $ETH
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？
Brothers, logically speaking, with the Fed restarting rate hikes, risk assets should take a hit first, but Bitcoin hasn't really crashed and can even hold at high levels, which is indeed a bit unexpected.
I think the reason isn't that complicated. First, the market had already priced in the rate hike expectations in advance, so when it actually happens, the negative impact isn't that big. Second, the funds buying Bitcoin now are different from before; with institutions and ETFs coming in, the market isn't so easily shattered by a single hawkish speech.
Another point is that people may have started to doubt how long the Fed can keep raising rates. Economic pressure, employment, and debt issues are all there. Short-term rate hikes are negative, but if the market thinks this is the end of tightening, it might start pricing in a future pivot early.
But don't rush to interpret this as "rate hikes are no longer a concern." Bitcoin's current resilience doesn't mean it can rise indefinitely. As long as inflation continues to exceed expectations or the Fed keeps making tough statements, Bitcoin will still pull back. Whether Ethereum can keep up also depends on whether funds continue to stay in the market.
My view is: Bitcoin is indeed strong now, but not strong enough to ignore macro factors. Holding key levels means the market still has room to play; once volume-driven breakdowns occur, the previous optimism will instantly turn around. $BTC $ETH
#EarningsObserver: Costco Q4 Earnings Report Coming Soon
Brothers, tonight's Costco earnings report is not just about how much profit they made, but more about how much purchasing power consumers still have.
For a company like Costco, membership fee income and renewal rates are crucial. No matter how much stuff they sell, if memberships start to decline and renewal rates drop, the market will definitely put pressure on them first. On the surface, American consumers are still buying, but with high interest rates and living costs weighing down, whether people are spending normally or just trying to maintain their previous lifestyle might be revealed in the earnings report.
I will focus on three areas: whether revenue continues to grow, how the online business performs, and what management says about the next quarter. Data beating expectations doesn't necessarily mean an immediate rise; if guidance is conservative, the stock might open high but close lower; if the earnings are average but management is optimistic, the market might still give some credit.
$COST, as a large-cap blue chip, fears not poor performance but overly high expectations. Everyone thinks it's stable, so the stock price tends to price in good news early.
Don't rush to chase tonight; wait for the market to deliver the answer. Earnings season often likes to pump the stock first, then push back those chasing highs.