夏木KRIS

夏木KRIS

聚焦超级个体 美股、加密货币、黄金、AI。

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夏木KRIS
夏木KRIS
The main theme of the 2027 bull market: Why I believe ZEC will reach $10,000 sooner or later
After $ZEC broke through $1000, I think it's necessary to seriously talk about this coin again. Many people see ZEC rising from tens of dollars to 1000, and their first reaction is: it has already risen so much, isn't it too expensive now? But I actually believe that one of the most important reasons the market chooses ZEC to speculate on is precisely because it still has enough room to grow. The targets that are truly easy to have super rallies in a bull market usually share a common point: the narrative is big enough, the chips are scarce enough, and the market has enough price imagination space. ZEC just happens to meet all three conditions. First, let's talk about Zcash itself. Zcash is not a new project that suddenly appeared in this bull market; it was launched in 2016, and its underlying currency model is very close to BTC. The total supply cap is also 21 million coins, it uses PoW mining, and also has a halving mechanism. The current circulating supply is about 16.8 million coins, meaning more than 80% of the final supply has already entered the market. But the biggest difference between it and BTC is privacy. BTC solves the problem of decentralized assets, but BTC's ledger is actually completely public. Addresses, fund flows, and balance changes can all be tracked long-term by on-chain analysis companies. Zcash aims to solve another problem: if in the future all assets are on-chain, will humans be willing to make all their financial activities permanently public? ZEC achieves Shielded Transactions through zero-knowledge proofs, which can verify the validity of transactions without disclosing the sender, receiver
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夏木KRIS
夏木KRIS
In the era of information transparency, is it really harder for financial crises to occur?
A major reason why financial crises were prone to brewing in the past was the slow spread of information. Underdeveloped communication and low market transparency mean information is often controlled by a few. Many risks can accumulate within the system for years, yet most market participants remain unaware. When the problem truly emerges, the market often has no time to react, panic spreads rapidly, and it eventually evolves into a systemic crisis. Today's environment is completely different. Smartphones, the internet, and real-time information enable information to be transmitted almost instantly worldwide. Macro data, policy changes, and market price fluctuations can all be captured by the market within seconds. Many local risks have not yet been amplified by the market in advance. From this perspective, traditional financial crises that rely on information lag and accumulate gradually have indeed become harder to form. But things are not that simple. More information does not mean more understanding. When information spreads extremely fast, the market is also more easily surrounded by noise. True and false news are mixed and emotions spread rapidly, often amplifying market reactions. Short-term panic, concentrated sell-offs, and instant liquidity contraction are actually more common in modern markets. The early days of the pandemic in 2020 were a typical example. The U.S. stock market triggered four circuit breakers in just one month. It's not that the economic fundamentals suddenly collapsed within weeks, but rather that the market quickly developed a panic of consolidation under the intense information shock. When everyone reacts in the same way, market volatility is amplified to the extreme. A deeper problem actually stems from the complexity of the financial system itself. 2008 Financial Crisis
夏木KRIS
夏木KRIS
A privacy coin with a market cap of just over 100 million might have the potential to replicate $ZEC's 100x opportunity Why did I start researching $ZEN after ZEC rose to $1000? Because in the latter half of a bull market, capital prefers to seek narratives that have already been validated, then speculate on smaller market cap, more elastic targets within them. ZEN currently has a market cap of about $134 million, with a total supply cap also at 21 million coins, and its price is still around $7. More importantly, it’s not just riding the privacy concept. Horizen has migrated to the Base ecosystem, with Horizen 2.0 positioned as a Privacy-first platform, and ZEN has shifted from an old PoW coin to the native asset of the entire privacy application ecosystem. So my current view on $ZEN is actually very simple: ZEC is responsible for establishing the privacy narrative, while ZEN offers greater upside potential. If privacy truly becomes the main theme of the bull market by 2027, once ZEN with a market cap of just over 100 million is chosen by capital, 10x might only be the first phase. When things get really crazy, I will look at whether it has the chance to replicate ZEC’s path. This could be a 100x level opportunity.
夏木KRIS
夏木KRIS
I believe $ZEC will at least rise to one-tenth of $BTC's price Why have I been heavily invested in ZEC this round? Because ZEC and BTC are actually more similar than many people think. Both have a 21 million coin cap, both use PoW mining, both have halving and scarce asset logic. The difference is BTC has taken the digital gold path to the extreme, while ZEC adds privacy on top of this monetary model. Now BTC is close to $80,000, while ZEC is only around $1,000, the price gap between the two is still nearly 80 times. So I have always believed that the market's revaluation of ZEC in this cycle is not over yet. If the market ultimately prices ZEC as the "privacy version of BTC," I think it should at least catch up to one-tenth of BTC's price. If BTC reaches $100,000 in the future, ZEC would correspond to $10,000. This is also why even after $ZEC rose to 1,000, I still think there is a lot of room to grow.
夏木KRIS
夏木KRIS
$BTC has already proven the value of 21 million coins Next up is $ZEC to catch up BTC and ZEC share the simplest and most easily understood common point by bull market funds: Both have a maximum supply of 21 million coins, and both are PoW. BTC solves decentralization and scarcity, while ZEC adds a layer of financial privacy on a similar monetary model. Previously, ZEC's biggest problem was that the privacy narrative was never truly priced by mainstream capital. But now the situation has changed. ZEC has broken through $1000, and ZCSH listed in the US currently holds over 440,000 ZEC, with assets exceeding $460 million. Traditional capital channels into ZEC have emerged. So now when I look at $ZEC, I don't think $1000 is too high. On the contrary, I think the huge valuation gap between it and BTC is starting to narrow. My judgment is simple: ZEC will sooner or later catch up to one-tenth of BTC's price. If BTC continues to hit new highs in 2027, then I still believe ZEC's $10,000 target is completely worth looking forward to.
夏木KRIS
夏木KRIS
After $ZEC surged crazily, I started paying attention to $ZEN Recently, ZEC has been breaking through $1000 continuously, and I have started to revisit an old coin I haven't followed for a long time: $ZEN. Many people might not know that Horizen originally forked from Zcash, sharing the same privacy genes, and ZEN also has a maximum supply of 21 million coins. Now the two paths have completely diverged: ZEC is more like a private digital cash, while ZEN has migrated to Base, beginning to develop towards privacy finance and application layers. But from a speculation logic perspective, this is actually quite interesting. After ZEC opened up the valuation of the entire privacy sector, the market is very likely to start looking for the next old coin with history, privacy narrative, and larger price and market cap potential. So this round, I will pay special attention to ZEN. $ZEC has already proven that the privacy narrative can be driven by capital speculation; next, it depends on whether capital will start to spread to the related $ZEN.