$BTC and gold correlation has gone up, which should originally be a somewhat positive signal. But the interest rate hike expectations have also risen #Federal Reserve officials say rate hikes are needed, with a 58.6% probability in September This makes it interesting. On one hand, capital treats $BTC as $XAU #BTC and gold 90-day correlation rises to +0.50 On the other hand, the market is starting to trade liquidity tightening again. So my current attitude towards $BTC and $ETH is very simple: Don't chase the rally, and don't rush to bottom-fish. When it was rising before, the market was too hot, and any good news could be used to explain it. Now, instead, we need to see if, after the heat cools down a bit, $BTC and $ETH can still stand on their own. $ZEC has already given a very clear reminder: It rises the most fiercely when no one is discussing it, and when everyone starts discussing it, the pullback comes. There's no need to guess the market every day. Just wait for it to play out first.

This market is really a bit twisted right now 🤣 On one side, the correlation between $BTC and gold is getting higher #BTC与黄金90日相关性升至+0.50, and the market is starting to retell the "digital gold" story; on the other side, the expectation for a rate hike in September is rising again #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% Plus, with Oracle and Adobe earnings reports coming soon, the sentiment in the US tech sector is probably going to be tested #财报观察员：甲骨文与Adobe即将交卷 So now I'm actually a bit hesitant to be blindly bullish. When $BTC and $ETH were rising earlier, everyone was looking for positive news, but now that they've dipped a bit, we realize none of the macro variables have disappeared. $ZEC was the same just now—no one asked when it was rising, but as soon as everyone started shouting when it went up, someone immediately took the sell-off. I think the most comfortable approach now is not chasing the rise, but waiting. Watch $BTC and $ETH for rebounds, watch $ZEC for sentiment. It's not too late to call a bull market once the market has truly digested all these negative factors.

The 58.6% probability of a rate hike hangs overhead, Oracle and Adobe will report earnings after the market closes on Thursday, and $BTC is fluctuating around the 80,000 mark, waiting for these two events to unfold. The probability of a rate hike in September is 58.6%, with nonfarm payrolls at 162,000, close to three times the expectation, pushing the rate hike expectation from 49.4% directly up to 58.6%. #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% However, the Federal Reserve is not unified internally—Waller is hawkish, while Waller says the CPI on September 11 is the key. This number looks intimidating, but once the CPI is released, it could be instantly overturned. Oracle and Adobe will report earnings after the market closes on September 10. Oracle's cloud infrastructure revenue is critical; whether the $638 billion backlog can be realized will determine if the AI hardware narrative can hold up. #财报观察员：甲骨文与Adobe即将交卷 On Adobe's side, the focus is on whether AI features can get users to pay more subscription fees. AI's annual recurring revenue has already exceeded $500 million; whether it can continue to grow is the key. The impact on the crypto market is direct—if earnings exceed expectations, risk appetite will recover, and $BTC and $ETH will be led along; if below expectations, the AI narrative will be hit, and crypto will be dragged down. Coupled with the 58.6% rate hike probability weighing down, the market is caught between two forces. Earnings on September 10 and CPI on September 11 are two consecutive key points. Don't bet on direction before then; wait for the outcomes. 👊

$BTC is wavering around 80,000, $ETH is grinding at 2,500, and all the news is about $ARB, $ZEC, Oracle, and Adobe—there's no direct positive news for BTC and ETH. $ARB surged over 50% in two days, Robinhood Chain's single-day fees hit $3.75 million, and DEX trading volume broke $1.5 billion. #Robinhood链收入带动ARB两日涨超五成 The protocol mandates Robinhood Chain to return 10% of net revenue to the Arbitrum ecosystem, so $ARB has its first attributable stable cash flow. But with high funding rates, chasing the rally carries significant risk. $ZEC jumped straight into the top ten by market cap, surpassing DOGE, with a market cap of $19.64 billion. From the bottom, it's already unbearable to watch; shorts have been squeezed repeatedly. #ZEC升至加密货币市值第10位 However, RSI is severely overbought, making both long and short positions uncomfortable at this level. Oracle and Adobe will report earnings after market close on September 10. Wall Street expects Oracle revenue growth of 28.1% and Adobe 11.7%. #财报观察员：甲骨文与Adobe即将交卷 The AI narrative is the tightest link between US stocks and crypto; earnings beating expectations will boost risk appetite, while missing expectations will drag crypto down. All the stories are about other coins; $BTC and $ETH have no direct news at all. Sentiment has entered the "greed" zone, but the interest rate hike probability remains, and CPI is the ultimate judge.