September 3 Evening Review BTC has been hovering above 77000 all day today, currently around 77600, up +0.4% intraday. ETH at 2394 only rose 0.1%. SOL stands at the 100 round number, up +0.8%. In August, it rose by 44%. In short, there is a rebound, but it feels perfunctory. Today's main news is that Trump privately discussed with advisors about officially announcing the end of the US-Iran war. He personally tends to support it. Oil prices softened accordingly, with WTI dropping below 91. BTC responded with a rebound, which makes sense logically. War is a risk premium; when the premium disappears, money flows back from safe-haven assets to risk assets. Crypto stands at the very end of this chain, rising the most joyfully but also the easiest to be pushed back. But have you noticed this news has been hyped several times this year already? In March, the strike extension was paused; in April, a ceasefire; in June, statements; in August, another delay. Each time it pulls up a spike, but each spike is shorter than the last. It's like dating: the first time you say break up, the other cries all night; the second time, they start checking your chat records; by the fifth time, they just look up and ask what’s for dinner tonight. This phenomenon has a name: diminishing marginal utility. The market's sensitivity to the same narrative will decline. If you take today's rebound as the start of a trend, you will most likely be taught a lesson next week. The real factors deciding direction are one in front of us and one two weeks later. The near one is the non-farm payrolls, coming in these two days, the last employment data before the FOMC. The previous value unexpectedly decreased.

Last night I looked at two sets of data and felt like I was listening to two people speaking at the same time. One says it's time to save money, the other says orders are already booked through the year after next. First, about saving money: the probability of a Fed rate hike in September jumped from 40% to 66% within a week. Warsh is hawkish. The ECB on September 10, the BoJ on September 18—major central banks worldwide are almost lining up to tighten liquidity. Liquidity is not about sentiment, it's about the valve. Now about spending: Broadcom's Q3 AI semiconductor revenue was $16.7 billion, up 221% year-over-year and 54% quarter-over-quarter, with total revenue of $29.6 billion. Q4 guidance for AI is $21.7 billion. FY27 reiterates over $100 billion. The CEO said laser capacity has tripled but still can't keep up with demand. Neither side is lying, they're just on different timelines. It's like after a breakup, still paying installments on a sofa bought together. The relationship is over, but there are still eighteen payments left. You can't stop paying just because you don't love anymore. Macro says don't spend, industry says contracts are already signed. Crypto is stuck in the middle. This morning BTC is at $77,148, down 29% year-to-date; ETH at $2,384, down 37%; SOL at $99.72, down 40%; XRP at $1.35, down 47% year-to-date. This month it even fell below $1 for the first time. The above data is from the morning of September 3. When liquidity tightens, the first assets sold are never the worst ones.

Today BTC hovered around 77,000 all day, sliding down from just above 78,000 in the morning to 77,249 by evening, dropping 1.6% for the day. ETH is at 2,411, the total market cap is 2.7 trillion, down 1.4%. It looks pretty rough, but the fear and greed index is still at 63, firmly in the greed zone. This combination is quite interesting. Everyone verbally says they're scared, but no one has sold a single coin. It's a bit like the days before a breakup—both know it's over, but no one mentions it, just waiting for the other to speak first. The reason for the drop isn't complicated. After Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole, the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 35% to nearly 60%. Both CME and Kalshi have adjusted their odds upward. Before the speech, 70% of the market was betting on no change; now the script has completely reversed. His original meaning was that summer data looked good, but the underlying trend hasn't truly improved. In plain language, it means: "It's not that I don't like you, I just think we need more time, so don't get your hopes up yet." But the truly valuable information today isn't the rate hike, it's the on-chain reallocation. Yesterday, a whale sold 2,000 BTC, about $215 million, and at the same time bought 48,942 ETH, with the amounts almost exactly matching. This isn't liquidation; it's switching tracks. Meanwhile, another data set shows that addresses holding over 10,000 BTC have increased their holdings by 46,420 BTC in the past 60 days, while small addresses holding 0.1 to 1 BTC have a cumulative trend score of -0.982 during this 31% rally, meaning retail investors are distributing while big players are accumulating and whales are reallocating.