The latest market data shows that as of August 31, the 90-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and gold reached +0.50, approaching the high levels seen during the 2020 pandemic phase. This is double the level from the beginning of this year. On the other hand, the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index has fallen back to -0.30, marking the lowest point in nearly a year. This set of data clearly reflects a shift in market logic. This round of rising correlation accelerated further after the U.S. Treasury raised the long-term bond repurchase limit. The market is increasingly treating Bitcoin as an asset similar to gold, used to hedge against risks from currency depreciation and fiscal expansion, rather than simply as a high-risk tech growth stock. For a long time, Bitcoin closely followed the ups and downs of U.S. tech stocks, collectively dropping when liquidity tightened. But now, their trends are beginning to decouple. Looking at the current macro environment, with ongoing geopolitical conflicts, increasing U.S. fiscal pressure, and repeated market speculation on interest rate cuts, capital is starting to seek assets that resist inflation and currency dilution. Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, continues to attract funds, while Bitcoin, with its digital scarcity, is being included by institutions in similar hedging baskets. The continuous inflow of ETF funds also indirectly confirms this trend. However, this correlation of +0.50 should be viewed rationally — it only represents a moderate positive correlation and does not mean Bitcoin will completely replicate gold's movements. Bitcoin still inherently has high volatility; during leverage liquidations or short-term capital flight, its price swings can be much greater than gold's. Once risk panic erupts sharply, in the short term, it will still be sold off as a risk asset.

ETF fund data for September 4 released: After the non-farm payroll data surged and triggered a price correction in cryptocurrencies, both Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs saw capital inflows. Leading institutions became the main buyers. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $174.6 million on the day, with funds highly concentrated. BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for a net inflow of $117.38 million, Fidelity's FBTC saw an inflow of $57.22 million, while other ETF products remained stable with no significant inflows or outflows, indicating that this round of buying mainly came from these two leading institutions. Ethereum ETFs also showed impressive capital attraction, with BlackRock's ETHA net inflow at $57.4479 million and Fidelity's FETH at $57.79 million, totaling over $115 million. However, internal divergence appeared as Bitwise's $ETHW recorded a net outflow of $48.3 million, while most other products remained flat. Morgan Stanley had a slight inflow of $53,000. A clear phenomenon can be observed: after the market plunge, institutions did not collectively panic and flee; instead, leading large institutions started accumulating at low levels, with funds concentrating into the largest ETFs like BlackRock and Fidelity. On the other hand, some products experienced capital outflows, and most others remained inactive, representing that small and medium institutions and ordinary participants are still cautious and observing. Overall, funds have not formed a comprehensive rush into the market. The interest rate hike concerns brought by the non-farm payroll data still hang over the market. This ETF data is a short-term positive but insufficient to directly reverse macro pressure. Institutions' willingness to buy at the correction level indicates medium- to long-term allocation intentions

After the non-farm payroll data significantly exceeded expectations, Trump publicly spoke out, praising the strong employment data while directly urging the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as soon as possible. His core logic is: the U.S. economy's fundamentals are strong, credit conditions have improved, so it should have lower interest rates. He even proposed that if rates are not cut, it would restrict trade with countries that have a trade deficit with the U.S. His words are very direct, hoping the Fed will abandon its anti-inflation goal and shift to easing stimulus. However, the market is not buying it. The employment data itself is very hot, implying inflation still has a risk of rebounding. From the Fed's institutional design perspective, monetary policy remains independent and will not directly follow administrative orders. Once the non-farm payroll data is released, the probability of a rate hike in September actually rises, U.S. Treasury yields go up, and risk assets like Bitcoin respond by falling. Here, an interesting divergence appears: politicians want rate cuts to boost the economy, but the Fed's primary goal is to suppress inflation. Even if Trump publicly pressures, as long as CPI, wages, and other inflation indicators remain high, the Fed is unlikely to rashly shift to easing. From the crypto market perspective, this is just a short-term episode. The real inflation data still determines the market trend, not the rhetoric. Politicians' rhetoric can cause emotional disturbances but is unlikely to immediately change the Fed's policy path. In the short term, the market still needs to focus on subsequent inflation reports and the duration of high interest rates, which are the key factors influencing Bitcoin's mid-term trend. As of 22:50 on September 4, nearly 1 hour of fund flow ranking: 1-hour fund outflow ranking: 1. $BTC, net outflow of 130 million 2. $ETH, net outflow of 33.11 million

Bitcoin breaks through the $80,000 mark and then pushes on to $82,000. Many well-known traders and institutions have started to take profits. Market bulls and bears are rapidly diverging. Trader Jiang Zhuoer publicly stated that he has fully liquidated his BTC position at $82,050 and has adjusted his strategy from being bullish on ETH to shorting BTC. In his view, this consolidation period is too short to support a breakout above the strong resistance at $83,000-$84,000. After the price closed above $82,000 with a long upper shadow, it signals a short-term exit. He is now focusing on waiting for the $70,000-$72,000 range to consider re-entering positions. On the other hand, investment firm Multicoin Capital is also gradually selling off HYPE tokens. Since July 28, the firm has sold about $112 million worth of HYPE, with total profits of $64.08 million, yielding a return of over 134%. The most recent large deposit and sale occurred just 3 hours ago. Not only these two transactions, recent on-chain data shows that a batch of institutions and whales who positioned at low levels earlier are taking profits during this rebound. The biggest variable in the current market is the U.S. August non-farm payroll data to be released tonight at 8:30 PM. It will directly affect expectations for a Fed rate hike in September. Possible market reactions to tonight's data: • 📊 New jobs added between 50,000-60,000, unemployment rate at 4.1%: in line with expectations, mild market reaction, focus shifts to next week's CPI • 📉 New jobs close to zero or negative growth, unemployment rate rising above 4.2%: signals weakening employment, significantly lowers probability of a September rate hike, bullish for gold