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#200 Yuan Challenge to 1 Million Phase 2 · Day 1
I'm back. In Phase 1, I went from 200 to 2335, then crashed from 680 down to 7.27 and got liquidated. After cooling off for a few days, Phase 2 officially starts today.
First, let me clearly explain why I got liquidated in Phase 1, no excuses: **I was blindly confident.** I thought no matter how much altcoins pumped, doubling or tripling was the limit, but it actually surged 130%, and a big bullish candle broke through my position. I never got the direction wrong — looking back today, those two coins had already dropped over 20% from their highs — but the market didn’t give me enough time to survive until then.
However, I realized one thing: **Having little capital is not an excuse for failure.** Which big player didn’t start with small funds? First, use small money to train your mindset, until you can handle profits and losses, then you’re qualified to talk about big positions. This fall was the tuition I had to pay.
For Phase 2, my new strategy is fully public:
1. Only short altcoins that have risen more than 40% that day; ignore those under 40%
2. Position size only 20% of total funds
3. The remaining 80% goes entirely into margin to extend the liquidation line
4. Leverage 2x
Clear rules for closing positions:
- If the next day the price drops 10% and there’s profit, close the position to take profit
- If no profit the next day, hold on until profitable
- If profit appears on the third day and the price also drops 10% that day, close the position as well
Today’s opening battle: $ONE topped the gain list with a 70% rise, so I entered a short position.
Honestly — I broke my own rule on this trade and **used 10x leverage directly**. For this opening battle, I want to start strong. I’m putting this out there clearly: **If this trade blows up today, I’ll top up 200 tomorrow and start over; if not, this trade marks the real start of Phase 2.** Win or lose, I’m transparent, fully live, no pretending.
In Phase 1, some were waiting to see me fail. To the commenter who said "If you succeed, I’ll eat shit," I remember you. Phase 2, here I come.
Wish me luck. And I wish you all great success in the crypto world. Let’s take Phase 2 slow and steady to the end 🤝
I only short altcoins, always use stop loss, manage position size, and disclose all holding funds. For reference only, not investment advice. #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #长端美债5%会成新常态吗？ I believe the reason zec has been reborn is actually almost unrelated to btc, privacy, or quantum.
These are indeed important features driving the store of value (SoV) narrative, but I think the bigger reason is that the market has realized that general-purpose L1 tokens will not be valued based on some "network value" or "Metcalfe's law" framework.
Two reasonable valuation frameworks are:
1) Cash flow
2) Store of value (SoV)
eth and sol are extremely overvalued relative to any cash flow, and this won't change unless they really achieve some crazy scale and usage. eth and sol are also hard to accept as pure stores of value, especially at their respective market cap levels.
Meanwhile, zec has a fixed supply, truly innovative privacy features, no systemic DeFi risk, and a smaller market cap. All this combined offers the remaining crypto participants a fairly attractive opportunity for real 10-20x growth with considerable scale. If the remaining participants all support zec as the "real" alternative store of value to btc, then early remaining participants will have a lot of money to make.
Yes, you could say this is a bit like a Ponzi scheme, but all stores of value are like that; they all require some kind of collective belief system.
zec's features do make it an attractive store of value, but I don't think it would be sought after if the L1 theory hadn't collapsed. The collapse of the L1 theory led to zec's pursuit, which has nothing to do with Bitcoin. $ZEC Okay, this version below has more of a Chinese crypto trader style, with a faster pace and more impact:
🚨 $CORE: It's not weakness, the selling pressure hasn't ended yet
🚨 $CORE: Don't rush to mistake the rebound for a reversal!
$CORE right now feels to me not like "quiet accumulation," but that selling pressure is still being released.
📉 It has retraced about 99.5% from the 2023 all-time high, and dropped nearly 8% in the past 7 days.
The most notable thing is: there hasn't been any shocking crash this time, but a continuous slow decline with repeated bottom testing. On top of that, validator-related vulnerabilities, emergency forks, and withdrawal impacts have piled up, naturally weighing on market confidence.
What's more troublesome is that monthly continuous unlocks still exist. The price has dropped this much, yet supply-side pressure hasn't completely disappeared; this is the biggest risk $CORE currently needs to watch out for.
🔥 So now, don't just focus on "has it dropped enough to buy the dip."
The real questions are:
When will buying return? When will the structure change?
Before these two signals appear, $CORE still needs time to re-prove market consensus.
#CORE #Crypto #BTC #Altcoins #FedRateHike #CryptoTax 加密圈这两天有点意思，一条路堵了，另外两条路反而通了。
CLARITY市场结构法案在参议院投票受阻没几天，众议院这边突然加速。筹款委员会以38票赞成、5票反对通过了《数字资产税收确定性法案》，专门给加密收入、资产转移、挖矿质押和经纪商申报定税务规则。同一天，金融服务委员会又以28票赞成、21票反对推进了《美国储备现代化法案》，计划把战略比特币储备写进联邦法律，政府手里的BTC至少保留20年，还要研究预算中性的增持方式。
这两个法案的意义比CLARITY更实在。税收规则一旦落地，困扰美国持币者多年的申报模糊地带就有了标准答案。战略储备法案更狠，如果通过，等于把比特币正式纳入国家储备资产框架，跟黄金放在同一个制度层面上。这不是喊口号，是制度层面的确认。
操作上，别把立法进展当短线催化剂。监管是慢变量，利率才是快变量。等情绪消化完，看盘面能不能在关键支撑企稳，再决定要不要进场。
你们觉得，战略比特币储备法案最终能过吗？评论区聊聊。$BTC $ETH $ZEC Nine million euros invested in a German real estate analysis company; the money hasn't entered the blockchain, but pricing power is shifting toward the data side.
Market makers look at cases like this and ask only one question: whoever controls granular data on land and real estate writes the script for the funds in advance. Amberra leading the investment and NRW.BANK following indicates that European public capital is willing to shift the valuation anchor from transaction matching to the analysis layer. There is still no direct evidence that this step will transmit to on-chain assets. A more likely path is that the due diligence cost of on-chain real assets is lowered by such platforms, narrowing the information asymmetry of counterparties in market making quotes.
Watch whether the due diligence disclosure cycle for European RWA projects shortens. If there is no change within half a year, this chain will remain confined within traditional finance.
#长端美债5%会成新常态吗？
#贝森特听证释放多重信号 #AI发展焦虑升温，监管讨论升级 $ZEC S&P Signs Agreement to Acquire OpenZeppelin: $37 Trillion Library Still Intact, Closing Not Yet Complete
S&P Global officially announced today: signed an agreement to acquire OpenZeppelin.
OZ has been operating since 2015, with its own Contracts library endorsing approximately $37 trillion in on-chain value flow, has completed over 900 security services, and identified more than 10,000 vulnerabilities in advance. After the acquisition, it will remain an independent business unit, with CEO Demian Brener staying on and reporting to S&P Ratings President Yann Le Pallec; they explicitly stated that the open-source library will continue to be free and permanently open source.
The deal is still pending: the amount was not disclosed, and closing conditions must still be met. The agreement ≠ the deal is fully completed. The open-source commitment in the press release also does not necessarily mean zero changes in client contracts or reporting lines going forward—if you want to keep an eye on it, wait until the closing is finalized to take another look.$PONS JUST TAUGHT ME A LESSON IN PATIENCE. Watched it rip from 0.5482 to a 0.6684 high, then fade back toward 0.6531 despite holding a +13.68% day.
Wicks like that separate patient traders from impulsive ones. Chasing the top would've hurt. Are you buying this dip or standing aside? Here are the insights I recorded from yesterday's operations. This is what I was thinking at the time:
Hold on until the eve of the interest rate decision announcement, then decide whether to close the short position. Ideally, close it just before that moment.
(I actually did this yesterday, closing the short position two minutes before the rate announcement, making a small profit of 20,000)
Why do this?
1. Betting that if the bulls can't withstand the pressure and collapse early, the price will drop ahead of time. Then I get to take a big profit.
2. If it's already very close to the announcement and the bulls still don't give up their chips, it means the negative impact of the rate hike has already been fully digested, and most of the downward momentum from the past few days' decline has been absorbed. Then closing the position early is also to prevent a sudden price surge.
What do you think?
The reason for holding until the last moment is to bet on whether the bulls will collapse early.
If they don't collapse, then we exit.#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
Recently, the community has been talking a lot about these two US crypto bills. I feel this is really worth pondering. The pressure of interest rate hikes is still looming, and now with new policies emerging, the industry's direction seems to be shifting.
The ARMA Bitcoin Reserve Act has passed the committee; seized BTC will be allocated to the national reserve, locked for at least 20 years, and cannot be casually sold off. In the long run, this reduces the risk of official dumping, but don't expect a direct surge—positive effects are likely priced in early, with a high chance of a peak followed by a pullback.
On the other hand, new tax regulations have also advanced, closing the loophole for deducting crypto losses. Small on-chain fees can be exempt from tax reporting, but high-frequency large transfers won't enjoy this benefit.
However, don't get overly excited—this is only committee approval, and there's still a long way before it becomes law. If the bill is ultimately enacted, US crypto will no longer be governed by temporary verbal rules but will become formal law, paving the way for institutional funds to enter. $BTC #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 Saudi Arabia has Oman come out to deliver a message, wanting to negotiate a two-week ceasefire with the Houthis—do you think the market moves are driven by technicals? No, it's all about the news hitting the market.
Everyone is tired of the mess in the Middle East by now; Saudi Arabia is annoyed, the Houthis don't want to keep burning money fighting every day, so "someone stepping down" is not surprising. What really made the market jump was the loosening of the Strait of Hormuz tension—recently the market feared incidents in the shipping lane every day, oil prices were like a firecracker with a fuse, ready to explode at any spark. Now that the words "talks are happening" came out, panic sellers withdrew first, bulls took advantage of the situation to exit gracefully, and prices shot up directly.
But let's not get carried away: it's only "talks happening" now, not "signed." Official announcements might come before the weekend, but in between there could be all kinds of shocks—talks breaking down, leaks, reversals, localized fighting again, all possible. That's how news-driven markets are, heaven in the morning and hell in the afternoon.
So don't chase the bullish candles:
- If you hold short positions, don't stubbornly hold through the news; look to reduce on rebounds or slip out on pullbacks, don't wait for "another drop back";
- If you want to short, don't go naked now; wait for the rebound to finish, or for fake breakouts before official announcements or after talks break down;
- Set stop losses, reduce your position size, don't get caught on the "news reversal" edge this week.
In short: the emotional tide receding ≠ risk disappearing. Until the ceasefire is finalized, it's all just on paper, not real peace. $BTC $ETH The Fed just raised rates by 25bp, but BTC hasn't fluctuated much. The earlier drop was probably a way to digest this news. As for VLongGame—I took a roller coaster ride a few days ago, and now I'm taking the escalator again. The pace isn't fast, but for now, we're on the right direction. Today's live trading | Day 23 Return: +1.54% Leading asset: 10,144.92 USDT 20 days profitable / 3 days losing Win rate: 86.96% Price-loss ratio: 1.90:1 What concerns me even more than the record high is that the P/P ratio has gradually improved from 0.41:1 after that drawdown to 1.90:1. In 7 days, I'll submit my first complete 30-day live trading report.#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
[100x Challenge: Day 53 — Live Trading Record]
It's absolutely right, everything turned green today.
Last night I bet on the dovish rate hike expectation, and now half of it has come true. Next, let's see how the recovery path of the US stock market develops.
Actually, Waller's speech was hawkish, but why did the US stock market and gold still rally today?
I think the market understood Waller's remarks as a forced rate hike, so the market returned to focusing on oil price fluctuations to determine the extent of the recovery.
If oil continues to fall tomorrow, US stocks keep recovering, and gold keeps rallying, it at least proves that the market is further betting on the logic that oil will decide whether there will be another rate hike. At the same time, oil is more concretely and firmly linked to inflation.
I will closely monitor oil prices going forward.
Oil price rise = pressure for a second rate hike
Oil price drop = easing inflation $DOGE in 24 hours +2.58% versus BTC +1.13% — difference +1.45 p.p.
With a position of 83% within the daily range, the question is simple: is this real relative strength or is the movement already fading? AI regulation will most likely ultimately focus on computing power thresholds, model evaluation, and licensing
Tech giants have lawyers, computing power, and policy teams, and can even participate in defining what safety means
Newcomers to the space tend to only focus on coin prices, but they should actually pay more attention to this line
Anthropic and OpenAI call for slowing down frontier development, while Jensen Huang says safety is an engineering issue and no new laws are needed
Both sides have different positions, but both understand that rules will come
Once compliance costs rise, open source teams and small companies are often the first to be blocked
Giants, on the other hand, gain an additional moat
What I’m paying attention to now is: in subsequent regulatory drafts, at what specific scale the computing power threshold will be set
That will be the watershed
#OpenAI拟IPO前融资，估值目标达1.2万亿美元
#AI发展焦虑升温，监管讨论升级 #AnthropicIPO争议延续
$ZEC Brothers, Washington's moves these past two days are really something.
The Senate just killed the CLARITY Market Structure Act, 49 to 50, not even a simple majority. Polymarket's probability of passage dropped sharply from 82% at the start of the year to 14%. Senator Lummis's post-match words hit hard — "Miss this Congress, the next window might not come until 2030." The entire crypto community is cursing.
But guess what? One road is blocked, but two others have suddenly opened up.
---
News: Two fires have been lit
First fire — the tax bill.
Less than 24 hours after the Senate vote failed, the House Ways and Means Committee passed the Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act with a crushing 38 to 5 vote. Note this vote count, 38 to 5, not along party lines, both parties voted yes. What does this mean? It means that the normalization of crypto taxation is already a consensus in Washington, not a partisan issue.
Key points of the bill: on-chain transactions under $10 are no longer taxable events, so buying a cup of coffee won't trigger taxes; wash sale rules officially extend to digital assets; qualifying USD stablecoins get exemptions. The long-standing reporting ambiguity troubling US holders finally has a standard answer. I really like what Committee Chair Smith said: "Without a de minimis threshold, buying a cup of coffee triggers an absurd compliance maze."
Second fire — the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act.
On the same day, the Financial Services Committee advanced the American Reserve Modernization Act 28 to 21, aiming to write the strategic Bitcoin reserve into federal law. The government's BTC must be locked for at least 20 years, cannot be sold, exchanged, or auctioned. This is not just rhetoric; it's a systemic confirmation — Bitcoin is officially moving into the framework of national reserve assets, standing on the same institutional level as gold.
But honestly, all 28 votes in favor came from Republicans, and all 21 against from Democrats, making it heavily partisan. Prediction platforms give it only about a 6% chance of passing.
---
Market: Don't treat legislative progress as a short-term catalyst
Back to the market. $BTC is hovering around $76,000 to $77,000, with a 24-hour gain of about 1%. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16, pushing rates to 3.75%–4%, the first hike since December 2025. After the hike, risk assets caught a breather, but it wasn't an easy one.
Technically? $75,000 is a strong recent support; buyers have defended it through several dips. Above, there's a dense liquidation cluster between $76,800 and $77,000, so rebounds to that level tend to be pushed back. The daily ADX remains above 43, so medium-term downward pressure hasn't eased.
The capital flow is interesting. BlackRock's IBIT has absorbed $1.08 billion in the past 20 days, holdings surged to 785,000 $BTC, while Grayscale's GBTC lost $255 million in the same period. US spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively hold over 1.28 million $BTC, more than 6% of total supply. This shows institutions haven't fled, just rotating positions.
In terms of strategy: regulation is a slow variable, interest rates are the fast variable. Legislative progress won't change funding costs in the short term. Wait for sentiment to digest, watch if $75,000 can hold, then decide whether to act.
---
Finally, a question I'm really thinking about: the tax bill is pushed forward by bipartisan consensus, but the reserve bill is pushed along party lines — one is industry infrastructure, the other a political signal. Do you think the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act will ultimately pass? Or is it destined to be just a card before the midterm elections?
Discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #OKX百万规划师 [Federal Reserve Raises Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points, The Real Test for Crypto Has Just Begun]
On September 17, the Federal Reserve unanimously approved a 25 basis point rate hike, raising the interest rate to 3.75%–4.00%. The probability before the meeting was over 92%, so the result was not surprising. BTC dipped to $75,355 before pulling back near $76,513, a typical "bad news fully priced in" scenario.
But don’t be fooled by the rebound. Dot plot: 12 of 18 officials expect more hikes this year, with none expecting a cut in 2023, and the median rate for 2027 was revised up to 4.1%. Fed Chair Powell bluntly stated that financial conditions are hardly restrictive.
This means market logic shifts from "when will rates be cut" back to "when will rates rise again." With risk-free rates climbing, the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield assets like BTC increases, and liquidity continues to be under pressure.
On-chain data is also not optimistic: exchange stablecoin reserves have evaporated by $16 billion from their peak to about $64 billion. Derivatives positions are light, so short-term liquidation risk is manageable, but spot market confidence is lacking.
My judgment: the rate hike itself has limited impact; what truly suppresses valuations is "higher for longer." The current situation resembles the first phase of the 2022 tightening template—rebound is normal but not necessarily the bottom.
Two points to watch going forward:
① If inflation remains persistently soft, expectations for a pause in hikes will come earlier, giving risk assets some breathing room;
② If stablecoin reserves rebound, off-exchange funds entering the market will be more critical than technical indicators.
Don’t mistake "bad news fully priced in" for a reversal. In a tightening cycle, rebounds are normal; the trend is the answer.
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 $BTC The fundamental logic should be divided into two layers: v4, Unichain, RWA/permissioned pools, etc., are expanding Uniswap's business boundaries; whether protocol fees, buyback, or burn mechanisms can be sustainably implemented ultimately determines if this growth can be converted into value capture for UNI. From the governance progress perspective, UNIfication and the activation of v4 protocol fees have been listed as executed proposals; UNIfication includes arrangements to retrospectively burn 100 million UNI from the treasury. This is the key reason the market is recently willing to reprice UNI, as the narrative shifts from "governance token" to "an asset potentially linked to protocol cash flow." However, it should be noted that proposal execution does not equate to the income scale, burn pace, and long-term valuation being fully realized; ongoing tracking of the actual scope of protocol fee activation and on-chain revenue is still required. (vote.uniswapfoundation.org) On the product side, Uniswap has recently been continuously advancing v4 dynamic fee hooks, Permissioned Pools, Robinhood Chain deployment, and product expansion around institutional/RWA liquidity. Their commonality is enhancing liquidity, trading volume, and the range of coverable assets; this is positive for the protocol fundamentals but cannot be directly equated to UNI immediately owning proportional cash flow. (blog.uniswap.org) Combining with the daily chart: the low point in mid-August was about 3.17, rising to the recent high From around $1,150 to nearly $1,400 in a single night… what kind of move is this? While $BTC and $ETH are struggling to find direction, $ZEC keeps pushing higher like the broader market doesn’t even exist. Forget the usual resistance lines for a moment — every time traders expect a pullback, another breakout appears. A lot of traders tried to short the rally after the sharp rise. The result? Short → squeeze → stop-loss → another squeeze. 📈 At this point, the biggest risk isn’t just volatility —We are currently using ChatGPT, and most of the logic is still:
A person asks a question → AI answers.
Huawei believes that in ten years, it might be completely different.
Its latest release, Intelligent World 2035, predicts:
By 2035,
Autonomous AI Agents will generate over 90% of global AI Token Traffic.
In other words, the biggest AI users in the future
might not be you and me.
But:
AI.
One Agent checks prices.
Another Agent does analysis.
A third Agent calls APIs.
A fourth Agent makes payments.
A fifth Agent audits.
They might communicate with each other 24/7, call models, and execute tasks nonstop.
This reminds me of a very interesting aspect of Crypto.
Humans already find traditional finance very convenient:
Visa, Alipay, bank accounts.
The real trouble is AI Agents.
AI has no ID card.
No credit card.
It’s hard for AI to open a bank account by itself.
But it can have:
Wallet + Stablecoin + Smart Contract.$ZEC SHORT UPDATE 📉
Entry: ~$1,165
Stop: ~$1,205
Risk: High
The last few trades have been stopped out, and this one is under pressure too.
I expected the previous high to hold as resistance, but price proved otherwise. BTC and ETH also aren’t confirming the bearish setup I was expecting.
At this point, protecting capital matters more than forcing another trade.
One more failed setup and I’m stepping back to reassess.
Trade smart. Protect your capital#FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 The recent move looks like a combination of AI narrative + protocol upgrades + capital rotation + real ecosystem activity, rather than just one headline. 1️⃣ AI is only part of the story NEAR is positioning itself around an emerging agentic economy: AI agents that can interact with blockchains, move assets and execute transactions. Its 2026 roadmap combines NEAR AI with NEAR Intents, while Chain Abstraction is designed to let applications and AI agents interact across different chains without usAfter rate hikes, risk assets rebound. Is rate hikes no longer a threat? It's a bit premature to say this! Core factors: The rebound after rate hikes is expected to be in line with boot realization, and last September, the probability of a rate hike had already stabilized at 90%. When the probability exceeds 80%, the market has already started pricing in. So when the rate hike materializes, it means the September rate hike is a thing of the past, and the market is trading new future expectations—when will the next rate hike happen? Walsh's post-rate hike speech can lead to a conclusion: monthly data is no longer the core factor influencing Fed policy changes, but the importance of data trends has increased. That is, the data for September is crucial in driving expectations for further rate hikes. As of now, the probability of a rate hike in October is 50.9%, and in December it is 49.6%, both around 50%. This means there is still insufficient evidence for further rate hikes, so the market naturally is no longer fearful. However, if the CPI in September comes after, PEC and related data show inflation continues to stay high or even rebound, increasing the probability of rate hikes in October and December. The market still needs to return to rate hike fears. Auxiliary factors #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 Currently, the key to breaking Fed rate hike expectations + high bond yields is energy prices. During the day, Brent WTI fell due to a temporary easing in the Middle East situation, causing long-term yields in the bond market to fall, easing pressure on the market and helping risk assets rebound. Have risk assets really gotten through the crisis? You can refer to my previous views on this; there have been a few recently$BSB $BSB /USDT current price around 0.0939, the market is quite interesting, outside it's very quiet, the order book is like dogs biting each other, buy and sell walls retreating back and forth, the candlesticks are making small steps upward, like the funds are testing the market. When it's this quiet, a strong pull-up or a sharp dump is mostly a dog trader shaking out the market; chasing highs is easy to get dumped on, and buying dips also requires stop-loss. I will watch with a small position myself, focusing on whether it can hold above 0.0939. What do you think, is this a real breakout or a fake move? Fellow traders, share your thoughts.
👇👇👇Will long-term interest rates remain high indefinitely?
A one-time rate hike can be absorbed by the market.
After the hike, if the economy weakens, rates can be lowered again in the future.
However, an increase in term premium means the market demands higher compensation for fiscal and inflation risks over the coming decades.
This pressure is more persistent.
It does not end after the central bank announces a single policy.
It will continuously weigh on corporate valuations, government financing costs, and the entire asset pricing system.
So, don’t just focus on the policy rate.
Pay attention to long-term government bond yields. But the bigger question isn't the 25bp itself. It's what the Fed signals about the next meeting. If policymakers keep emphasizing inflation risks and the possibility of additional tightening, liquidity could remain under pressure and risk assets such as $BTC and $ETH may stay volatile. If the message is more balanced, markets could interpret it as a sign that the tightening cycle is approaching its later stages. What I'm watching now 👇 🏦 Fed: 25bp hike already largely priced into expectations The rate hike boot landed, but instead of falling as planned, the market actually rose. This is quite interesting. Looking back at how BTC actually performed during historical rate hike cycles, it might be more useful than focusing on this candlestick in front of you. Let's start with the cycle from 2015 to 2018. At the end of 2015, the Fed raised rates for the first time in a decade, and BTC basically didn't react, as if it didn't hear it. Then from 2016 to 2017, BTC continued to hike, and BTC went from over $200 to nearly $20,000. The most intense bull market in history happened precisely during rate hike cycles. But later, in 2018, when the Fed raised rates, BTC dropped by nearly 70%. But that bull market was basically supported by narrative, ICO speculation, and the fact that absolute interest rates were still very low at the time, so its reference value isn't very high. Looking at the 2022-2023 cycle, this is the closest scenario to "mature markets meeting rapid rate hikes," and it's also the most instructive. In November 2021, BTC peaked at 69,000. When the first rate hike occurred in March 2022, it had already pulled back 40% from that high, hovering around 40,000. Interestingly, the market was still strong on the first rate hike day, then rebounded by about 18% over about twelve days, then turned into a deeper decline, falling 63%. The low was about 15,500, occurring in November 2022. The key point is, when the lows appeared, rate hikes hadn't stopped; if hikes continue in 2023, BTC will gradually climb out from the bottom. So looking ahead, if we really confirm entering a multi-round cycle,That massive $ZEC short position is starting to look seriously uncomfortable. 👀 The position reportedly entered around $690, while $ZEC has continued pushing higher instead of giving short sellers the pullback they were waiting for. The trader still has some breathing room, though. 📍 Entry: $690 🔥 Liquidation: $2,720 What makes it even more interesting is that the liquidation level was previously around $2,900, while the average entry has gradually moved higher from roughly $470 → $690. That Huang disclosed that Paradigm is an investor in ZEC and ZODL, while arguing that long-term funding for Zcash development remains important. He also raised concerns that governance based purely on token-holder voting could create unpredictability for Zcash as a monetary asset. That changes the conversation. The issue isn't simply bulls vs bears anymore. It's about how much influence large token holders should have over a privacy-focused network — and how Zcash balances decentralization with prediBefore the US stock market opens tonight, I still don't plan to chase the rally. $BTC and $ETH currently share a common point: short-term recovery has already taken place, but there is still resistance above. After the market opens, it is very likely to have a spike that will shake out those chasing the highs and lows.
For BTC, it has reclaimed above the short-term moving average on the 1-hour chart, MACD has turned positive, and RSI is around 63, indicating short-term buying is recovering; the 4-hour bearish momentum is also continuing to narrow, RSI has returned near 50, structurally representing a post-decline recovery.
However, resistance and liquidation positions are relatively dense around 77200–77900, so I won’t aggressively chase at high levels.
A pullback to 76450–76600 is a chance to lightly try going long; more conservatively, wait for 75950–76150, with targets first at 77200, then 77700–77900, and if strong, then 78400–78600.
If 75500 is effectively broken downward, abandon the bullish idea.
For ETH, it’s even clearer: the 1-hour MACD remains bullish, RSI has reached about 67, and the price is close to short-term resistance, so continuing to chase longs has a poor risk-reward ratio.
My approach is still to wait for a pullback to 2448–2455 to enter, more conservatively wait for 2415–2428, with targets near 2480, 2500, and 2530; if it breaks below 2395, exit immediately.
Tonight, I prefer to wait for the first wave of volatility after the US stock market opens before entering. Both sides currently have recovery but have not yet formed a strong one-sided structure. It’s better to wait for the spike and then see if it holds rather than chasing in directly.The Fed raised rates by 25bp, taking the target range to 3.75%–4.00%. Normally, tighter policy would be a major headwind for risk assets. But Bitcoin didn't simply follow stocks lower. Why? Because another major story arrived at almost the same time: U.S. crypto legislation continued moving forward on multiple fronts. 🇺🇸 Crypto tax bill: H.R. 10357, the Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act, cleared the House Ways and Means Committee 38–5. It includes provisions covering digital-asset taxation and a$XRP gave back the entire move and then some. That's the honest update.
I called the 1.3850 break. It worked, ran to 1.4919, then one candle on Sunday wiped 7% on the heaviest volume in weeks. Straight back to 1.29.
Here's the lesson in it. A level that breaks upward on real volume can still fail if the market turns. Being early to the right idea and late to the exit is the same as being wrong.
1.2480 is the floor now. 1.3183 caps it.
Still holding from higher?#FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 DOGE bad news: The 0.083 long-short line held for four days but broke the night before last.
It steadily declined to 0.079 before stopping, and the 0.08 whole number level is now being defended closely.
The good news is that last night's FOMC session did not continue the crash; the 0.079 low held with a slight rebound, indicating support below 0.08.
Technically, 0.08 shifted from support to resistance and back to support; if it fails, look down to 0.077; above, 0.083 (the original long-short line) becomes the first resistance, and 0.088 is the ticket for trend recovery.
DOGE purely follows sentiment; the failure of the CLARITY Act also suppresses sentiment in the meme sector.
Direction: Weak oscillation between 0.077-0.088, light positions above 0.08 to bet on a rebound with a stop loss at 0.077; reduce positions on a rebound between 0.083-0.085. Those without positions should continue watching; no right-side signals have emerged yet. 【Account Opening】My name is Jiang Yuechu, specializing in slaying demons in the crypto world.
First, let me share a number I uncovered myself and found surprising:
21 projects died on-chain, 19 of them died from the same cause — the contract had a minting switch left inside.
It’s not a hacker attack, nor bad market conditions.
It’s that the contract contains a mint function; whoever holds the owner privileges can create coins out of thin air,
then dump them into the pool, exchanging for real money.
The amount of coins in your hand doesn’t change, but the money in the pool is gone.
This isn’t called a "price drop," it’s called being drained.
A 30-second self-check, three steps:
1) Open the contract, search for mint
2) Check if there’s a cap or owner restrictions
3) Check if the owner privileges have been renounced
If step 1 is yes, and step 3 is no — this switch is still in someone else’s hands.
I won’t tell you what to buy or sell.
I only do one thing: tell you how the assets in your hands died.
If you have coins you can’t sleep over, drop the address in the comments, and I’ll catalog them one by one.$BTC is permission. Without a higher-timeframe hold, $ETH duration and $DOGE/$ZEC beta are just borrowed volatility.
Trade expansion only after BTC accepts a level, not after one wick. Acceptance beats prediction#FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve #LongYields5%NewNormal After climbing from around $1,100 to nearly $1,400, ZEC has entered a zone where volatility is becoming extreme. The rejection from roughly $1,395 is worth watching, but one pullback alone doesn't confirm a full trend reversal. For me, two things matter more than RSI or MACD right now: 1️⃣ Can the squeeze continue? The recent rally has been heavily influenced by momentum and short-position liquidations. If ZEC can't reclaim the $1,360–$1,390 region and selling pressure continues, the market coulI just finished reviewing the market and reorganized my short-term thoughts. Currently, my view is very clear: long positions can be temporarily held, and the short-term characterization is consolidation confirmation. The market is all watching to see if there will be a big drop after the rate hike, but what happened? It didn’t fall much, and the key 74K level was not broken. If it were going to fall, it hasn’t; the bears are not as strong as imagined. So for now, I won’t chase shorts or rush to expect a trend decline; I will continue to treat it as consolidation. Since it’s consolidation, the question is: there’s no meat below, so where is the meat? My first expectation is: the meat is above, at 82-84K. The logic is simple. Even a rate hike of this magnitude didn’t cause the market to crash beyond expectations, indicating there isn’t much liquidity to absorb below for now. If the main force wants to act, it’s more likely to push up first to test the resistance above and attract long positions. Once the price goes up, especially reaching the 82,000-84,000 range, a bearish divergence can easily form on the 4-hour or even daily chart. Once the bearish divergence is established, a pullback of over 6,000 points is expected afterward. This space is worth waiting for. The second expectation is the resonance of resistance above. The 79,400-80,000 range is not only a 4-hour level resistance but also the 0.618-0.666 Fibonacci retracement zone of this round of pullback. Technical resistance combined with Fibonacci resonance means I believe the pressure here will be relatively strong. So my trading plan for this week and this month is: BTC in the 79,400-80,000 range $OKB: The central bank's super week has held up
Monday 113, Tuesday 112, today 111, only a 2% drop in three days, which is quite resilient in an environment where altcoins are generally falling, once again verifying the defensive nature of platform tokens.
Technically, the 110 whole number level is still held by the bulls, 108.68 is the intraday low, and 106.4 is the weekly-level defense line;
The resistance at 113-115 remains a barrier that hasn't been truly overcome since 9/9.
Direction: oscillating between 108-115. Hold above 110, stop loss if it breaks 108; only look at 118-122 if it stabilizes above 115. After the interest rate decision settles, volatility will decrease. For OKB, this kind of low-volume bottoming is easier to trade—sell high and buy low, don't chase breakouts. $BTC is still setting the direction for overall crypto liquidity, while $ETH is becoming an important gauge for whether that liquidity is spreading beyond Bitcoin. The main thing I’m watching is confirmation between the two. If $BTC maintains its structure while $ETH starts gaining strength, it could signal that traders are becoming more comfortable taking broader market risk. But if Bitcoin stays firm while Ethereum continues to underperform, capital may remain heavily concentrated in $BTC rathFor the last decade, Bitcoin’s narrative was heavily tied to the halving cycle. The next decade could be shaped more by the global fiat and credit cycle. 📉 Bond markets are flashing a different kind of signal: 🇺🇸 U.S. 10Y yield → above 5% 🇯🇵 Japan 10Y yield → around 3% These are levels markets haven’t seen in many years. Higher sovereign yields can tighten financial conditions and put pressure on highly leveraged parts of the global system. That doesn’t automatically mean a Bitcoin rally. BBitcoin is hovering around $76.3K, after trading between roughly $75.2K–$76.7K today. The sell-off has cooled, but I’m not calling this a confirmed bullish reversal yet. 🎯 Levels I’m Watching 🔸 $76.8K–$77K → First resistance A strong rejection here could keep BTC range-bound. 🔸 $78.2K–$78.5K → Major resistance A convincing breakout would open the door toward the $80K area. 🔸 $75.2K–$75K → Key support Losing this zone could bring $74K back into focus. 🔸 $72.5K–$73K → Deeper support If $74K f$GENIUS's surge today is mainly driven by new news stimulation.
Genius just launched genius.fun, and it's not just a simple Launchpad.
Mainly tokenized stocks, on-chain issuance, and real listed company acquisitions can integrate tokenized assets like $ONDO and bSTOCKS, with plans to continue expanding.
So what the market is really hyping now is: RWA + US stock tokenization + BNB Chain + GENIUS narrative, which quickly took off.
Looking at the chart, it has risen more than 40% in 24 hours, and contract OI is also rising, indicating short-term funds are clearly starting to grab in.
With such a rapid rise, a shakeout is very likely to come next.
Currently, chasing is not recommended; focus on the pullback area of 0.38–0.36.
If it can hold steady there, then after volume shrinks and then expands again, it can be considered to buy in.
But if the price stays flat without rising while OI crazily increases!
Be cautious, as it can easily turn into contract longs being forced to take the losses.
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #CLARITY法案下一步怎么走？ $BEAT perpetual 10x short position, opened at 0.1396, 0.0836, floating profit +401.14%. Before opening the position, I monitored the order flow; active sell orders around 0.14 continuously consumed the buy side, and the long orders were thin.
I lightly tested a short at 0.1396 with a stop loss at 0.145. The buy side couldn't hold, and the price dropped sharply. Using 10x leverage with only 3% position size, I can hold it.
Now the profit is substantial, pushing the trailing stop to lock in profits. Order flow is the footprint of the main force; when sell orders dominate, follow the short. $ETH $BTC Focus on just three coins in the early session; today's market has already given signals
$BTC 76328
After last night's sharp drop, it started to recover. 75,000 remains the lifeline between bulls and bears.
Holding above 76,000, the first target is 78,000, then look towards 80,000.
If it falls below 75,000 again, be cautious that this rebound might be a bull trap.
$ETH 2421
The trend is clearly weaker than BTC.
2400 is the first line of defense; for the market to truly strengthen, it must hold above 2500 again.
Only by reclaiming 2500 can capital rotation have room to grow.
$ZEC 1338
The strongest performer in today's market. The overall market just recovered, with a 7% rise in 24 hours; interest in privacy coins remains strong.
1300 is the short-term dividing line between strength and weakness; holding above it means continuing to challenge previous highs; falling below 1300 means prioritizing caution against profit-taking selling pressure.
Three core sentences for today:
BTC looks at 75,000, ETH looks at 2500, ZEC looks at 1300.
BTC is responsible for stabilizing market sentiment, ETH reflects capital rotation, and ZEC provides elasticity.
Next, focus on one core change:
Will capital continue to spread from BTC to strong altcoins?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC The Federal Reserve has landed, yet BTC fell below 76,000. Who's to blame?
The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points, which the market had long anticipated; you can't create a pit with something so obvious. What really pushed BTC down was the Senate vote on September 15—the procedural vote on the CLARITY Act, with 49 in favor and 50 against, not even reaching the 60-vote threshold, falling short by 11 votes.
Many are still focused on what Walsh says, but the real pressure has shifted.
A clear transmission chain: rising regulatory uncertainty → declining institutional allocation willingness → crypto stocks fall first → BTC gets repriced accordingly.
Coinbase dropped over 10% intraday that day, becoming the biggest loser in the S&P 500. Circle also plunged 10% intraday. Bitcoin briefly fell below 75,000, marking the largest single-day drop since June, with over $300 million long positions liquidated in just 20 minutes.
Crypto stocks fall first, then BTC follows. This sequence speaks for itself.
Why regulation? Because banks, asset managers, and large enterprises aren't unwilling to enter the market; they need a set of rules that can be incorporated into risk control models before they dare to allocate real money. Without the bill passing, these rules remain uncertain. Uncertain matters scare away big money.
So if BTC continues to weaken, stop reflexively blaming the "Fed hawkishness." The rate decision has been made, and the market is already digesting the dot plot. The real new variable weighing overhead is regulatory expectations.
$ETH $BTC 九月的 $BTC 喊分批建仓，喊到破 60K 砸锅卖铁，三个月过去，价格还在原地磨。这种帖子点赞 9，浏览 4 万，说明看的人多，信的人少。
老韭菜的直觉是：越是把每个价位都写成加仓理由，越说明作者自己也没想清楚底在哪。日元、油价、加息、黑天鹅，全成了同一个动作的注脚。
现货分批本身没错，错在把“跌了加”包装成“任何情况都加”。真到 60K 以下，多数人手里那点子弹早打光了。
$MSTR 和 $CRCL 被顺手带过，没给仓位比例，也没说和 $BTC 的关系，这更像凑数。
我暂时不跟这种节奏。先看九月那批现货到底有没有人真拿满三个月。
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #沙特管道修复预期压低油价 $BTC $MSTR $ONE exploded today, jumping more than 60% and briefly touching 0.0012. The move caught my attention immediately. I opened a short around 0.001025, and the position is currently only slightly in profit. The size isn't important—the setup is. 📌 Why I’m Watching This Carefully $ONE has a history of sudden vertical rallies followed by sharp retracements. When a coin moves this quickly, FOMO can arrive fast. Traders start chasing momentum, while derivatives positioning can become increasingly crowdCLARITY failed, and the SEC immediately pulled out the "Innovation Exemption" — crypto regulation is also becoming a testing ground
On September 15, the CLARITY Act failed to advance in a Senate procedural vote with a 49:50 result.
But just two days later, the SEC launched the "Innovation Exemption," allowing qualified tokenized stocks to be traded on-chain. SEC Chair Atkins also made it clear that this is a move to continue progress using existing statutory authority after congressional legislation was blocked.
The two are not actually substitutes:
CLARITY = rewriting the rules of the game.
It addresses SEC/CFTC jurisdiction, digital asset classification, trading platforms, and other issues from a legal perspective, representing a long-term institutional framework.
Innovation Exemption = opening a pilot zone first.
Without waiting for Congress to complete the full set of rules, the SEC is creating space for new models like Tokenized Stocks and on-chain trading.
CLARITY is stuck, but the U.S. has not paused crypto financialization; instead, it has started running "legislation + regulatory agency self-promotion" in parallel.
In the short term, RWA, on-chain U.S. stocks, stablecoin settlements, and DeFi trading infrastructure may continue to gain policy space; in the long term, what truly determines the industry's ceiling remains formal legislation like CLARITY. $BTC $ZKP perpetual 20x short position, opened at 0.05396, 0.04295, floating profit +408.08%. 1-hour RSI surged above 85 into the overbought zone, price is inflated.
I lightly shorted at 0.05396, set stop loss at 0.056. Strong demand for indicator correction, indeed it surged then pulled back. Using only 3% position at 20x leverage, manageable.
Now profits are substantial, pushing the trailing stop to lock in gains. RSI overbought is a warning light, don’t chase longs when you see it, lightly hold with loss and reverse. $XRP $ARB #ETH震荡 after touching $2500 ETH rose again today, but I'm not as excited
Today when I checked the market, ETH had risen a bit more.
The price returned above $2400, with an intraday high close to $2470.
If it were me before, my first reaction might be:
Is it about to take off again?
Then I'd start looking for resistance and support levels, guessing how much it could rise next.
But now, I'm not that excited.
It's not that I don't have a positive view on ETH, but after experiencing several big market ups and downs, I increasingly feel:
A one-day rise doesn't tell you much.
What really matters is why it rose and whether it can hold that level going forward.
This recent rise is somewhat interesting.
ETH hasn't been smooth sailing lately.
A few days ago, it surged near $2600 but quickly pulled back, dropping as low as about $2360 before slowly recovering.
Today it’s back above $2400.
This pattern at least shows that at this level, the market hasn't completely lost interest despite the previous drop.
So now I prefer to observe:
Can ETH truly establish a relatively stable price zone around $2400?
Instead of rushing to guess its next target.
I'm increasingly disliking "price predictions."
The most intoxicating thing in crypto is predictions.
"This time it will definitely hit 3000."
"By year-end, definitely 5000."
"Next cycle, definitely 10000."
These sound great, but no one really knows.
ETH can rise today and fall tomorrow.
Even a seemingly solid logic can be wiped out by short-term market sentiment.
So if someone asks me now:
Can ETH still rise?
I might not answer immediately.
I'd rather ask first:
Why should it rise?
If it's just because it rose today, so you think it will rise tomorrow, that's just chasing price.
But if it's due to changes in the Ethereum ecosystem, on-chain activity, stablecoins, Layer 2, and market capital structure, then it's worth serious study.
There's another question I think is more important than price.
ETH is now roughly above $2400.
But what I really want to know is not:
When will ETH break $3000?
But:
How many people will truly use Ethereum years from now?
If on-chain payments, stablecoins, DeFi, and various applications become more widespread, and Ethereum remains a key infrastructure, then today's price might just be a small part of the whole story.
Conversely, if a more efficient alternative emerges and developers and capital gradually leave, then no matter how pretty the candlesticks look, it won't matter.
So now when I look at ETH, I've slowly shifted from:
"How much can it rise?"
to:
"Why does it deserve this price?"
I'm happy about today's rise, but not excited.
Because I know:
The market's gains can be taken back anytime.
What truly belongs to you is your understanding of this market.
A 2% rise today doesn't mean the bull market has restarted.
A 5% drop tomorrow doesn't mean ETH has lost its value.
I prefer to watch slowly.
Watch the price.
Watch the capital.
Watch the on-chain data.
Watch the Ethereum ecosystem.
And watch the overall macro environment.
Not going crazy when it rises, not panicking when it falls.
This might be something I've gradually learned in the market over the years.
As for where ETH will ultimately go?
I don't know.
And I don't want to pretend I do.
We’ll walk and watch.
This article only represents personal learning and thoughts, and does not constitute any investment advice.Brothers, I just finished running deliveries and came back. The rain was really heavy today.
Autumn has arrived, with continuous autumn rain. At night, you already need to wear a jacket when riding. After taking a shower, I opened the trading app, and ETH started moving again.
Last night $ETH once dropped to around 2356. I bought long positions around 2390, and now it has reached 2465, starting to show floating profits.
I prefer trading ETH because its volatility is greater than $BTC and it has stronger elasticity, but the risk is also considerable, so position size must be controlled.
Let's talk about gold. Why do central banks around the world keep buying gold? I think the core reason is to diversify reserve risks.
The US dollar remains the world's most core reserve currency, but there's no need to put all your eggs in one basket. Gold does not rely on the credit of a single country, and its supply growth is slow. High-grade mines are becoming harder to find. Personally, I am watching gold move long-term toward $8000, but that's just my personal view.
BTC actually has a similar logic. Gold is a scarce asset in traditional finance, and $BTC is a scarce asset in the digital world. So when I look at BTC and ETH, I don't just focus on short-term price fluctuations. The real big moves often emerge through repeated pullbacks.
Brothers, ETH dropped to 2356 last night. Did you buy in?
My long position at 2390 is already showing profits. Are you long or short now? Let's chat in the comments!
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进