Orbit Post Sitemap
In the afternoon, someone asked if $LIT could reach a new high again. I checked the chip distribution; the top ten addresses hold about 70% of the circulating supply, which is typical for a small coin with high control. Such tokens usually do not experience a straightforward, decisive one-way trend but rather rally for a while, then pause, exchanging time for space, gradually raising the baseline. From recent performance, since the start, the price has increased by over 100 points, with almost no decent pullbacks in between. This structure means that once selling pressure appears, the retracement could be rapid. Just now, there was indeed a wave of small sell orders on the market, with some short-term positions closed accordingly, which is a relatively comfortable rhythm. The liquidity of small coins is always a hidden risk; when the market is favorable, entry and exit are smooth, but once it turns, insufficient order depth may make it difficult to exit. Therefore, it is best to think clearly about your exit strategy before participating. Currently, with the non-farm payroll data release approaching, macro sentiment may amplify market volatility. Although the earnings reports from Broadcom and Snowflake were impressive, their direct boost to small-cap coins is limited. Overall, controlled coins are more suitable for seeking short-term opportunities during pullbacks; chasing highs is not cost-effective, and patiently waiting for better positions might be safer. Risk reminder: The market is highly volatile; please manage your positions rationally. This article does not constitute investment advice.Misconception: Many people think that when negative news materializes, the market should follow the trend and plunge downward. But the market doesn't do that—it loves to suddenly surge when everyone is grouping to short the market. Have you ever wondered why, every time you think you understand the direction, the market always targets your positions? Today's market really has the psychology of leveraged players in their hands. Holding short positions in BTC and ETH, I was waiting for Friday's nonfarm payroll data and the Fed's hawkish stance to let the price slide down. But before the data was released, the market was already holding its head high and surging upward. Watching the unrealized losses in my account grow bit by bit, that heart-pounding feeling was more thrilling than a roller coaster. I stared at the market for a long time. This rebound isn't a sudden positive signal, but rather the market's early trading of expectations of "negative news taking effect." - Broadcom's earnings exceeded expectations, Snowflake raised its guidance, and AI narratives reignited sentiment in US tech stocks. This recovery in risk appetite will directly affect the crypto market, especially BTC and ETH, which are sensitive to dollar liquidity. - Saudi crude oil exports have fallen to a nine-year low, and inflation concerns from soaring oil prices theoretically suppress risk assets. But the market now chooses to ignore this negative factor, indicating that short-term pricing power is not in the hands of macro data, but in the liquidation logic of derivatives contracts. - Contract rates have been in extremely negative territory for several consecutive days, with professional players betting on a decline. This highly crowded trading direction is often the fuel for a market reversal. The denser the short sellers, the stronger the motivation for institutional pulling. Right now,SPCX is near a relative high point, you can short a small position! BTC will shake out in September and rally in October, storage continues to be absorbed.
After this BTC rally in September, it will at most oscillate for a month.
October and November are the two strongest months for BTC all year: since 2010, October averages about 29%, November about 38%. September is historically the weakest, averaging a drop of about 3.1%, after the shakeout comes the strongest phase, definitely buy more during the oscillation.
Be bold to buy storage on dips: TrendForce raised the Q3 PC DRAM price increase forecast to 18%–23%, servers 13%–18%, mobile 8%–13%.
Samsung has about 70% of its 2026–2031 capacity already locked in long-term contracts with Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google, spot HBM is still more expensive than long-term contracts.
Spot prices are still rising, what's there to fear about stocks?
$SKHY #SPCX #BTC $SNDK $MU $BTC This market rally is really fierce 😂 $BTC surged all the way up near $81,400, quickly rising from the lows and pulling market sentiment from panic back to euphoria in a short time. $ETH also reclaimed above $2,500, but compared to BTC, its strength is still somewhat weaker. After the key support was taken back earlier, the pressure from the bears has clearly started to release. 🔥 Even more dramatic is the liquidation wave — as BTC rapidly surged, the market saw massive short liquidations, with data showing over $400 million in short liquidations in the crypto market, further creating a chain reaction of "rising → short squeeze → continued rise." So why is it suddenly so strong? The core reason is the change in Fed expectations. Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s latest remarks were clearly dovish: if upcoming data shows inflation continues to cool, he tends to support keeping rates unchanged in September; but if inflation heats up again, he does not rule out supporting a rate hike. The market quickly repriced, with the September rate hike probability dropping from about 63% to around 50%. Risk assets then collectively rebounded, and BTC broke above $80,000 again. 📊 But it’s still too early to say the "rate cut rally is confirmed." The real test is today — the US August nonfarm payroll data. The market currently expects about 58,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate around 4.1%. If employment weakens significantly, the market may further bet on easing; conversely, if the data beats expectations, rate hike concerns may heat up again. So this wave Last night, Fed Governor Waller delivered a “cooling dose” to the market, lowering the probability of a Fed rate cut from 65% to 50% at the September 16 meeting. Meanwhile, the Yen Carry Trade continues to heat up as JPY rises nearly 2% against the USD. The probability of a BoJ rate hike hit 80%, causing about 824 billion yen of foreign bonds to be sold off to bring funds back to Japan. These two factors pulled US bond yields down, triggering gains across many assets: 🟢 BTC touched $82K, ETH returned to $2.5K 🟢 Gold regained $4.5K 🟢 US stocks all 📌Gold｜ETF increased holdings by nearly 10 tons, rationally view the positive news before Nonfarm Payrolls
SPDR increased holdings by 9.98 tons in a single day on the 9.2nd, accumulating nearly 50 tons since August, with institutions using gold as a base position.
⚠️This increase before Nonfarm Payrolls is buying on expectations; it is not advisable to chase the price higher directly. Options implied volatility inversion indicates funds are preemptively speculating on the data, beware of data overheating pushing up the dollar.
✅Mid-term logic remains unchanged: central bank gold purchases, US Treasury credit discount, and falling real interest rates provide triple support for gold prices.
$XAU: Above 4400 is not an ideal buying point; if Nonfarm suppresses gold prices, focus on support at 4320‑4350.
Operation: Wait for the 20:30 Nonfarm release, distinguish between true and false pullbacks before acting, do not use mid-term positions to bet on short-term data fluctuations.
Also, a reminder to closely watch $BTC at the key level of 79000.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
$ETH $BTC The second is still destined to be the second!
$ETH hasn't told its own story yet; when BTC rises, it just sips along, but when BTC falls, it falls even harder.
Currently, 2600 above is a resistance level tested repeatedly recently; only a breakthrough can target 2800; 2400 below is support, and breaking it will lead to 2200.
ETF net outflow is 48 million, institutions are withdrawing. This contrasts sharply with BTC ETF net inflow, indicating institutions currently favor BTC more.
4Pectra upgrade is postponed to 2027, no new narrative in the short term. Layer2 competition is intense, with Arbitrum, Base, and Optimism splitting traffic and funds, making ETH's "ultrasound money" narrative a bit awkward.
So my approach is still mainly to wait and see. The ETH/BTC exchange rate has been falling, indicating funds are moving from BTC to altcoins, and ETH is not the first choice. I'll wait until Pectra has a clear timeline or ETF net inflow resumes.BTC surged from the daily low of 77,000, strongly reclaiming 81,000 (peak 81,748, +5.3%), while ETH simultaneously rose above 2,500 (+4.8%). This rally is not a pure short squeeze but a genuine rebound triggered by macro factors:
① Fed's Waller stating "no change" is the core catalyst: as long as August inflation doesn't spike, the FOMC on September 15–16 tends not to raise rates. CME's rate hike probability dropped sharply from 63.2% to 50.4%.
② Initial jobless claims exceeded expectations, indicating a cooling labor market, further suppressing rate hike expectations.
③ The US Dollar Index fell 0.5% below 99, and the 10-year US Treasury yield retreated from 4.82% to 4.75% — lower rates + weaker dollar = zero-coupon high Beta assets directly benefit, with BTC, gold (+3.6%), and the Nasdaq (+1.4%) rising in sync.
④ Shorts were squeezed: about $510 million liquidated across the network in 24h, with shorts accounting for $416 million (over 81%), accelerating the short squeeze and bullish candle.
⑤ Funding: BTC spot ETFs saw a daily net inflow of $101 million (IBIT led with $115 million buying), but ETH ETFs still had a net outflow of $48.2 million — institutions prefer BTC for re-entry, with ETH lagging behind.
Should you enter? This is a rebound driven by macro expectation repair, not a reckless bull run. It's here! This wave of recovery really makes the market feel different.
Bitcoin has reclaimed the $80,000 level, even surging to 82,000 in the early hours, though it didn't hold, the momentum is back. ETH also bounced back above 2,500, pushing the total market cap close to 2.8 trillion — a seven-month high.
But what's truly worth noting this time isn't just BTC's rise, but the altcoins starting to follow. ZEC surged 17%, and familiar names like ADA, DOGE, and XRP all rallied together, with SOL returning above $100. You can clearly feel that capital is beginning to spread out from BTC, and the bold are charging into more volatile assets.
Honestly, how far this rebound can go depends largely on tonight's non-farm payroll data. This is also the last major employment report before the September FOMC.
If the data is weak, reinforcing rate cut expectations, risk assets will likely push higher, and altcoin rotation could get even more active. Conversely, if employment data surprises on the strong side, market sentiment could quickly turn sour — after all, this rebound is largely priced in on anticipated rate cuts, and once expectations are adjusted, the pullback could be swift.
In short, the atmosphere is warming up, but don't get too carried away; wait for tonight's data to land. The market is always like this: don't fear missing out when prices rise, but the real opportunities often become clear only after the data is released.
$BTC $ETH
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 83,000 marks a life-or-death watershed! $BTC is about to break out with volume, or is it the bulls' last trap?
$BTC has returned to $80,000, but the market has not formed a consensus expectation.
Jiang Zhuoer cleared his position at $82,050, believing that the short 13-day consolidation is insufficient to break through $83,000 to $84,000, and the next step may be a pullback to $70,000 to $72,000.
Yi Lihua sees $76,300 as support but also believes that $86,000 is the real resistance level.
Meanwhile, the whale "Set 10 big targets first" posted on platform X that the "last chance to get on board points to $100,000."
The funding situation is also contradictory.
A mysterious whale sold out 167,900 ETH in 5 days, cashing out about $408 million.
Strive, however, holds up to $1.4 billion in potential buying power and plans to continue accumulating BTC.
The US already has 174 crypto ETFs, with IBIT managing about $61 billion, accounting for 38%. Institutional channels are becoming more mature, but funds are also more concentrated.
Trading terminal single-day volume exceeded $1 billion, with Robinhood Chain suddenly contributing over 90% of GMGN trading volume, indicating risk appetite is recovering but mainly flowing into short-term trading.
Right now, it’s not a simple bull vs. bear battle, but a simultaneous occurrence of long-term buying and short-term profit-taking.
If BTC breaks and holds $83,000 to $86,000 with volume, $100,000 may really not be far away.
If ETF funds weaken later, $70,000 to $72,000 could be the next test. $BTC ️ September has historically been a "troublesome autumn" for the crypto market, and this year might be no exception. Do you think Friday's non-farm payroll data will be a bombshell?
Historical data shows that September is one of the worst-performing months for BTC (average return -2.95%).
With the current surge in the 10-year US Treasury yield, the market is even starting to price in the possibility of a rate hike in September. Friday's non-farm payroll data hangs like the Sword of Damocles overhead.
Before there is any substantial easing in macro liquidity, the high volatility of altcoins will also be amplified during downturns.
Downside protection in the options market is concentrated in the 68,000-75,000 range, indicating that smart money is also guarding against a short-term pullback.
At this point, managing position size and keeping enough cash flow is more important than blindly chasing highs. $ETH $SOL #AVGODipsSNOWPops, Snowflake raises guidance #RobinhoodChainRevenue Am I a pig??
No!
I'm not a pig!
I tripled my coins; if I don't dare to short, that's the real pig!
Brothers, I, the hunter, have shorted!
$ZEC surged from 475 all the way to 936, nearly doubling.
Grayscale ETF listing, Ironwood upgrade, Coinbase launching wrapped ZEC.
Good news one after another, the story is more complete than anyone else's.
Market sentiment is heating up, the comment section is full of "privacy coin value returning" and "$1000 is just the starting point."
But have you thought about who will take over coins that have doubled?
First, the whales are running.
A whale holding 230,100 ZEC at a cost of $59.8, with an unrealized profit of $180 million, has not cashed out yet.
Do you think it will hold forever without selling? Or will it slowly sell after you chase in?
Second, the EU ban is already set in stone.
From July 10, 2027, all licensed exchanges in the EU will not be allowed to offer trading of privacy coins like Zcash.
ZEC will disappear from mainstream European exchanges.
Third, Coinbase itself issued a risk warning, saying wrapped ZEC has custody and cross-chain risks.
They warned about their own coin first—what signal is that?
Fourth, what is the essence of Zcash's "ETF gilding"?
Grayscale's parent company DCG urgently needs a new story to support its IPO valuation; the ZEC ETF's high 2.5% fee rate has become an important source of income.
Wall Street is packaging not privacy technology, but a compliant product stripped of regulatory risks.
Technical signals are even more naked.
ZEC shows a neutral structure at $808.9 but faces massive whale sell-offs; the stop-loss hunter detector shows buyer liquidity is being locked, usually signaling a decline.
MACD underwater death cross, bearish momentum dominates.
From 475 to 936, profit-taking piles up like a mountain.
How cost-effective is chasing longs at this position?
If you don't dare to short at this position, how am I different from a pig?
Target first looks at 850, break that and look at 800.
Direction unchanged, position unchanged.
I tripled my coins; if I don't dare to short, that's the real pig.
This round, I am bearish to the end.
$BTC
$ETH
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 The $BTC price rebound is just an appearance; ETF fund data is the real indicator.
BTC is currently quoted at $81,320, but what is more noteworthy is the fund flow on September 3: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $301.66 million in a single day, and Ethereum ETFs also recorded a net inflow of $68.02 million. The simultaneous capital inflow into the two major mainstream ETFs indicates that institutional funds are returning to the crypto market, with a clear shift in risk appetite.
However, fund transmission has a sequence. At this stage, BTC is still the first to absorb liquidity, ETH follows closely to start benefiting, while altcoins have not yet shown clear signals of confirmed funds. Whether they can follow the rise later remains to be observed.
Therefore, the core contradiction in the current market is no longer "whether funds will come"—this question has been answered. What really needs to be considered is: which direction will these incremental funds choose next? Will they continue to settle in the two major mainstream coins, BTC and ETH, or will they gradually spread to altcoins? This shift in flow will directly determine the main theme and rhythm of the next market cycle.Friday night's nonfarm payrolls report is the last major data before the September rate-setting meeting, basically setting the short-term direction.
First, let's look at the current situation.
The previous ADP employment data has already worsened, with only 38,000 new jobs added, below expectations; the Fed's own Beige Book also mentioned that employment growth is slowing in most regions, clearly showing a cooling in the job market.
But here comes the contradiction: the market still assigns a 62.3% probability that the Fed will raise rates in September.
Why hasn't the rate hike expectation dropped despite weak employment? The root cause is inflation.
Core PCE inflation has been stuck at 3.3% and won't go down; currently, more than half of the price subcomponents have year-over-year increases exceeding 3%, showing strong inflation stickiness, so the Fed dares not ease up. Officials' statements are cautious, only saying they will continue to observe and not directly stating no rate hike.
The key focus is tonight's nonfarm payrolls:
1) If the nonfarm data continues to be poor: employment weakens consecutively, even if inflation remains stubborn, the market will think the Fed won't dare to aggressively raise rates, so rate hike expectations will drop, which is short-term positive for crypto prices;
2) If the nonfarm data rebounds and employment remains strong: with both employment and inflation pressures unrelenting, rate hike expectations will heat up again, and the short-term market is likely to face downward pressure.
Right now, it's a tug-of-war between weakening employment and stubborn inflation. Tonight's nonfarm payrolls are the key to breaking this balance; the quality of the data will directly determine the overall trend leading up to the rate-setting meeting. $ETH 🔥$BTC Don't treat “locking BTC for yield” like a bank deposit, there are three main personas: native, wrapped, and inscribed
Newcomers often confuse the Bitcoin ecosystem. First, native staking/BTCFi: Babylon keeps BTC on the mainnet, secures PoS chains, earns penalties and rewards, no cross-chain bridges or wrapping; TVL varies widely by statistics, projections for 2026 range from about 4.8 billion to 5.6 billion, with some higher peaks, overall still niche. sBTC/Stacks, tBTC, exSat represent the other camp of “bringing BTC into contracts/cross-chain.” The key is not “how high the APY is,” but “whether BTC moves, who holds the keys, and how penalties are enforced if something goes wrong.”
Second, wrapped BTC: WBTC has about 125,000 tokens custodied by BitGo-like services, cbBTC about 73,000 tokens; advantage is easy access to ETH/other chain DeFi, disadvantage is custody plus bridge risk; suitable for liquidity provision, not for “pure BTC self-custody.” Third, inscriptions/Runes/Ordinals are no longer the sole mainline: Ordinals initially drove block space demand, Runes save some UTXO, but after Magic Eden exited Bitcoin NFTs, the market fragmented, now it’s more like “collectibles plus fee contribution,” not the ecosystem’s main engine.
Avoid mysticism in the observation framework: payments look at Lightning capacity/channel activity; smart contracts watch BitVM mainnet progress, Citrea/Stacks actual TVL. $BTC BTC surged to 82,285 in the early morning before pulling back, currently oscillating around 81,100. Last night's violent rally was the market pricing in a weak non-farm payroll in advance.
Macro data continues to send cooling signals:
· ADP "small non-farm": only increased by 38,000 in August, the lowest since January this year, far below the expected 48,000.
· Initial jobless claims: rose to 206,000 last week, slightly above expectations, indicating the labor market is indeed loosening.
· Rate hike expectations: CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September remains around 62%, but the market is questioning whether this number is too high.
Tonight's non-farm payroll is the main event.
The market expects an increase of 58,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. Bank of America's view is straightforward — non-farm payroll is just an "appetizer," CPI is the key to deciding whether to hike rates in September. A significantly lower-than-expected non-farm payroll may reduce the probability of a rate hike, but CPI will ultimately set the tone. Some analysts also believe that if non-farm payroll is weak, it may push for no rate hike in September.
Three scenarios:
· Increase over 70,000: rate hike expectations return to over 70%, BTC may retest 78,000-79,000.
· Increase of 30,000-50,000: in line with expectations, the market continues to be indecisive, oscillating between 80,000-82,000 awaiting CPI.
· Increase below 30,000 or even negative: rate hike expectations cool significantly, BTC is expected to challenge 82,500-83,000.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #### BTC Practical Trading Plan
| **Trade Direction** | **Trend-following Long (Buy on Pullback)** High consolidation phase after breaking through $80,000, following the main upward trend |
| **Recommended Entry** | **$80,200 – $80,600** Gradually build positions relying on the $80,000 key level and 1H EMA20 support zone |
| **Stop Loss Protection (SL)** | **$79,400** | Strict stop loss. If it breaks below $79,500, it indicates the breakout's validity is weakened |
| **First Take Profit (TP1)** | **$81,800** | Previous high dense selling pressure zone, close 50% and move stop to breakeven |
| **Second Take Profit (TP2)** | **$82,800 – $83,500** | Trend extension target zone |
| **Risk-Reward Ratio (R:R)** | **About 1 : 2.4** | Risk about $900 to aim for $2,200+ potential space |
$BTC Multicoin Capital is suspected to have sold $112 million worth of HYPE since 07.28, with an estimated profit of $64.08 million, yielding a return rate of over 134%😲
This entity had built a position of 4.95 million HYPE from Galaxy Digital at an average price of $32.32 between January and July this year. As the price of $HYPE continued to rise, it is suspected to have taken profits in batches on exchanges.
The most recent deposit was 3 hours ago (about 150,000 tokens, valued at $12.78 million)$BTC challenges 200 RMB to reach 20,000 RMB
$BTC currently holds 350 RMB
Woke up completely stunned, it was still 79,000 before I went to sleep yesterday, firmly believing it wouldn't hit 82,000,
Many shorts are probably as stunned as I am
This wave isn't caused by the Fed directly cutting interest rates and flooding the market, but by officials' statements changing market expectations for the September rate meeting, acting as the trigger for the rally.
This time the Fed only gave a dovish expectation, igniting the rally; the real violent surge that crushed the shorts was the short squeeze in the futures market.
We are far from entering a big liquidity injection cycle; the Fed's hands are tied by inflation. Whether the subsequent rally can hold depends on two points: first, whether inflation data can continue to weaken, and second, whether spot funds can support the market after the short squeeze ends.
Hold on with low leverage; if you get through this wave, $BTC #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
Tonight's non-farm payrolls, I am bearish.
Stop believing the old script "weaker data means rate cuts are closer and the stock market rises," this time it's different.
The market has already priced in an 85% chance of a rate cut in September, which is equivalent to full expectations and an open card. At this point, no matter which way the non-farm payrolls go, it is bearish for the US stock market:
- Data exceeds expectations and strengthens: it directly shatters the rate cut fantasy, even pulling back rate hike expectations, US Treasury yields surge, and high-valuation tech stocks collapse first.
- Data continues to weaken: this is not good news either. July already saw a negative increase of 23,000 for the first time, August ADP hit a new low since January, corporate layoffs jumped 58% month-on-month, and hiring has not kept up at all. This is not "the Fed can ease," but a signal that the labor market is truly cooling and economic downward pressure has already reached the employment side.Shorts have been squeezed out: BTC breaks 81,000, the three brothers pop champagne together
BTC: In the early morning hour, $140 million worth of short positions were squeezed out
$BTC current price $80,800 (OKX perpetual 81,299), 24h +5.2%~5.5%, breaking through the 80,000 and 81,000 barriers in one go, marking the strongest close since May 14. One hour after the breakout, about $140 million in short positions were forcibly liquidated, with 96,000 liquidations across the network in 24h — this is not a pullback, it's a meat grinder. The culprit is just one statement: Waller said if inflation continues to cool in August, he supports no rate hike in September. CME's rate hike probability dropped from 63.2% to 50.4%, the US dollar index fell below 99, and gold followed suit, touching 4,500. August spot ETF net inflows reached $3.5 billion, the largest monthly inflow in over a year. 81,455 is the critical line (resistance on 8/25); holding above it targets 82,814, then 85,000–90,000. But with tonight's nonfarm payrolls and next week's CPI, anyone fully invested is handing money to the market makers.
ETH: The woman who left BTC behind
$ETH $2,500, 24h +5.2%, 30 days +33.7%, 90 days +60%. Why so strong? August spot ETFs have bought for 10 consecutive trading days, totaling $1.52 billion, the strongest month since ETH launched in 2024, with a single-day peak of $226 million, a ten-month high. BlackRock's ETHA alone accounts for 72%. On the supply side, even more aggressive: 42 million ETH locked in staking, exchange balances down 15% since June — the supply is getting thinner, so any new money can push through easily. 2,550 is the key hurdle; breaking it, the sister calls for 2,800; if it pulls back to 2,430 but holds, just buy with eyes closed.
- BTC: Support 80,000 → 78,000; Resistance 81,455 → 82,814 (May high) → 85,000–90,000
- ETH: Support 2,431 → 2,400 → 2,306 (on-chain average cost); Resistance 2,550 → 2,800
- SOL: Support 103 → 100 → 95; Resistance 109–110 → 120
Macro / Event calendar: Tonight 20:30 US August Nonfarm Payrolls | Next week CPI, PPI | 9/15–16 FOMC (rate hike priced about 50.4%) | 9/9 Solana Transaction V1 mainnet launch | October Alpenglow consensus upgrade
Risk warning: SOL ETF inflows of about 77%–80% are concentrated in a single fund (holding about 9.3 million SOL, 1.59% of circulating supply). If inflows slow, volatility will be amplified; this rally includes a large amount of short covering, if nonfarm exceeds expectations, the pullback will be swift.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Hidden liquidity risks in the market are becoming increasingly apparent — the narrowing of the USD/JPY interest rate differential is leading to the first phase of arbitrage position unwinding!
The yen appreciated again intraday to around 155, while the 2-year Japanese government bond yield remains high, and the 10- and 30-year JGB yields have clearly declined.
Market data expects that once the yen raises rates in September, the total rate hike over the next 12 months will reach 100 basis points; yen rate hikes have already entered a deep pricing phase.
At the same time, Federal Reserve Governor Waller’s speech weakened expectations for a September rate hike, accelerating the narrowing of the USD/JPY interest rate differential and triggering the first phase of arbitrage position unwinding — defensive unwinding.
Next, attention turns to Friday’s nonfarm payroll data. If the data weakens further, reducing the probability of a September rate hike from 50% to around 30%, it will further weaken future expectations for the USD/JPY interest rate differential, causing arbitrage trades to move from defensive unwinding to mechanical unwinding. This phase will directly bring liquidity pressure to risk markets.
The arbitrage unwinding caused by the narrowing USD/JPY interest rate differential and the resulting liquidity tightening is also a hidden risk in the market. This is another point of doubt I have about today’s market rise following Waller’s speech.
Friday night’s major nonfarm payroll data will mark the start of a long-short game. The data originally weakening September rate hike expectations is positive for risk markets, but if the yen continues to appreciate and breaks through 155, it means accelerated arbitrage unwinding, and liquidity will enter a suppressive phase for risk markets.
This Friday will not be easy! #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Tonight's Core Logic for Gold & BTC
Recently, many people are puzzled:
The probability of interest rate hikes is clearly rising, so why are gold, silver, and Bitcoin rising instead?
Let me explain the underlying logic:
1. The negative factors have already been fully priced in
The hawkish speeches at the end of August already caused a drop, so the negative factors are priced in early.
What the market is trading now is: the last rate hike and the logic of the rate hike's end.
2. The logic for gold has changed
Gold pricing now is not based on short-term rate hikes, but on:
US high debt, fiscal deficit, sticky inflation, credit hedging.
The more forced the rate hikes, the greater the fiscal pressure, the more valuable gold becomes.
3. BTC is moving in sync with the "digital gold" trend
Continuous net inflows into ETFs + market speculation on a macro easing turning point.
As long as the dollar is not strong and real interest rates do not surge, BTC will continue to resist declines and rebound.
Five, Tonight's Practical Mindset
1. Do not chase orders immediately after data release; be sure to observe 10–15 minutes of sustainability.
2. A spike followed by a drop = a bull trap, do not buy.
3. A drop without a new low and a stable rebound = a genuine bull.
4. Non-farm payrolls are highly volatile data; heavy positions and holding through are strictly prohibited.
Six, One-Sentence Ultimate Summary
Tonight the market is betting in advance on weaker employment and cooling rate hikes.
Weak data = a strong rally following the trend
Data meeting expectations = a spike and shakeout
Data exceeding expectations = a return to negative selling pressure
The real trend does not depend on the size of the data but on the synchronized confirmation of the dollar and interest rates.$BTC How far Bitcoin can go depends on its position in the global financial system.
In the hearts of Bitcoin believers, it has already gone further and further, with both benefits and drawbacks. For example, the pricing power is currently shifting from miners and offshore exchanges to Wall Street institutions.
CME Bitcoin futures have replaced Binance as the dominant force in price discovery. CME will launch 24/7 trading in May 2026, closing even the weekend windows that used to create extreme market moves.
Impact: Volatility convergence — Bitcoin cycle realized volatility has dropped from about 70% to 45%; bear market logic rewritten — even with price drops exceeding 50%, the usual panic selling has not occurred.
Capital concentration — institutions prefer assets with high liquidity and mature fundamentals; traditional macro factors have replaced the halving narrative as the core variables driving price.
But it also brings new risks — a Federal Reserve paper warns that institutions can manipulate the market through coordinated selling strategies such as ETFs. #21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币 DON’T FOMO AFTER BTC’S REBOUND
$BTC is back near $81K, but a rebound doesn’t confirm a new trend. After strong Bitcoin ETF demand in August, early-September flows are cooling, making risk management more important than chasing.
$BTC → hold support
$ETH → regain momentum
$SOL → watch breakout + flows
$XRP → strong relative strength
$HYPE → strong structure
$ZEC → needs real demand
Keep positions small. Scale in gradually. Don’t chase candles. Increase exposure only when price and flows confirmIn recent years, the blockchain industry has faced a lingering question: should you build the chain first and then find users, or have users and business first and then decide whether to build the chain? The development path in previous years was almost always the former. Launch a new chain, create an ecosystem fund, attract developers, issue incentives and airdrops, and then find ways to attract users. This model has become the industry standard over the past few years. But the problems have become increasingly apparent: a chain can exist without users, a bunch of projects can have no revenue, and no matter how impressive the technical parameters are, it doesn't mean people are willing to use it. There are too many such cases. However, recent moves by Robinhood offer a different approach. Robinhood is not a company building blockchain from scratch; it already has a large user base, a mature trading system, and real capital flows. On this basis, launching the RH chain is essentially not about building a chain for the sake of building a chain, but about gradually moving the existing trading and assets onto the chain. $HOOD Therefore, it does not follow the traditional public chain logic of progressing step-by-step from technical development to ecosystem project implementation and then attracting users. Instead, it reverses the process: first having users and trading demand, then adding the chain as new infrastructure. In other words, the chain here is not the starting point but the result. Similarly, stablecoin giant Circle's Arc is following a similar path. According to information released by Circle, Arc plans to launch its mainnet on September 16, positioning itself as an open network for financial markets, focusing on stablecoins, payments, settlements, and on-chainThe US ISM Services PMI rose to 55.4 in August, with business activity and new orders accelerating significantly, but price indicators also reached their highest level in nearly four years. The simultaneous strengthening of economic resilience and inflationary pressures has made market judgments on monetary policy more complex. However, the decline in US Treasury yields has temporarily eased valuation pressure on risk assets, the US tech sector has strengthened, and the crypto market has also completed a key breakthrough accordingly. $BTC has reclaimed $80,000, $ETH has surpassed $2,500, mainstream coin trading volumes have expanded simultaneously, and risk appetite has upgraded from localized probing to broader position replenishment. The issue is that after the rapid rise, the 4-hour momentum of BTC and most altcoins has begun to slow, with some high-level small coins showing obvious sharp rises followed by declines. Today, the market is no longer facing the question of "whether it can rebound," but rather "whether it can hold steady after the breakthrough." The US nonfarm payroll report to be released tonight will become the next test of the quality of this rally. BTC has broken through $80,000 and has entered a short-term pressure verification zone. BTC was trading around $80,900 this morning, up about 4.5% in 24 hours, with trading activity close to 1.8 times the recent average level. Unlike the previous repeated tests of $78,000, this rise was accompanied by a significant expansion in volume, improving the quality of the breakout. However, BTC once approached $82,300 intraday, then fell back below $81,000, with a slight decline in the last 4 hours. This indicates that $80,000 has been broken through, but the selling pressure above has not been fully absorbed. The short-term focus is first onHYPE broke through $88 in the early morning to hit a new all-time high, with a 30-day cumulative increase of over 57%. On September 4, according to HTX market data, Hyperliquid's platform token HYPE briefly broke through $88 in the early morning, setting a new all-time high, but has now fallen back to around $86.90, up 6.3% in 24 hours and with a cumulative increase of over 57% over the past 30 days. HYPE is the platform token of decentralized perpetual contract exchange Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid is built on a self-developed high-performance Layer 1 network, using on-chain order books and full-chain matching settlements. The trading experience is close to that of a centralized exchange, and it has grown into a leading platform in the on-chain derivatives sector, with perpetual contract trading volume consistently ranking among the top decentralized platforms. HYPE was issued through a large-scale airdrop in November 2024, and since then, based on a buyback mechanism based on real platform fee income, it has become one of the few exchange platform tokens directly linked to token price. This morning's rally continued its strong momentum from nearly a month: over the past 30 days, it rose over 57%, clearly outperforming the market over the same period. Behind the rally are multiple factors resonating: persistently high on-chain perpetual trading volume leading to ongoing fee buybacks, market revaluation of on-chain derivatives tracks, and capital shifting from pure meme narratives to assets backed by real income. HYPE, as one of the strongest platform coins in this cycle, continuously hitting new all-time highs and being regarded by the market as an important indicator of on-chain derivatives demand prosperity. It should be noted that【ETH Today's Strategy | Short-term Bullish, Buy on Dips】
ETHUSDT currently at ≈ 2,502
Strong rebound from 2,370+, technicals from 15min to 4H turned bullish (SuperTrend flipped bullish, MA support), daily chart shows a strong consolidation.
Driving Factors
• BTC simultaneously surging past 81k+
• Fed pause on rate hikes signals easing risk appetite
• ETH ETF inflows ended but institutional base remains
• High staking rate + network activity + Glamsterdam upgrade narrative support
Action Plan
Priority to buy on dips at 2,485-2,500, stop loss below 2,460
Add positions on break above 2,530, target 2,550-2,580
Light position, strict stop loss
Risk Warning
Resistance pullback, September FOMC uncertainty, geopolitical disturbances
Beijing 24h forecast for today
High 2,545-2,570 | Low 2,465-2,490
Personal opinion only, DYOR, strictly control risk!
#ETH #Cryptocurrency #TradingStrategyCrypto Morning Brief☀
BTC has retaken $81,000 in this wave, seemingly a rebound within the crypto circle itself.
But the real trigger actually comes from the Federal Reserve.
On September 3rd, Fed Governor Waller stated that if inflation continues to cool in August, he tends to keep interest rates unchanged in September. The market immediately lowered its expectations for a rate hike in September, U.S. Treasury yields fell, and BTC once surged near $81,400.
So this rise looks more like a sigh of relief on interest rate expectations.
Funds no longer have to worry so much about "higher rates," so risk assets naturally get a breather first.
But this cannot yet be understood as a trend reversal.
Waller’s premise is very clear: inflation must continue to cool.
If upcoming inflation data rises again, today’s easing expectations can just as easily be reversed.
Whether BTC can continue to rise next depends not on how good the story sounds, but on whether macro data can continue to cooperate.
$BTC $ETH $SOL BTC climbed back above 80,000 this morning, but I'm actually not that excited.
Last night, when it dropped to the 70,000 range, many said it would crash further before the non-farm payrolls; now $BTC is back around 80,900, and $ETH has retouched 2,500. It looks like a recovery, but I just don't dare to go long.
The 30-year US Treasury yield has stayed above 5% for 41 consecutive days, reaching 5.259% on September 2. In this environment, risk assets should be struggling, yet BTC is holding strong. The more this happens, the more we shouldn't preemptively bet on the non-farm payrolls at 8:30 PM tonight.
ADP private employment only increased by 38,000, below the expected 47,000. If the data remains soft, the market will interpret it as easing rate hike expectations, and shorts above 80,000 might suffer again; if the data reverses, this recent rebound was likely liquidity reserved for tonight.
Right now, I'm only watching two scenarios:
Whether $BTC can hold steadily above 80,000 after the data;
Whether $ETH can turn 2,500 back into support.
Only if both happen can it be considered a true recovery. If either turns down first, those chasing in today might feel worse than those who cut losses at the low point last night.
Tonight, do you think shorts will be squeezed first, or will the longs chasing be trapped first?
$BTC $ETH #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #OKX星球话题来啦 #星球日报 After Robinhood's on-chain volume surged, the ARB revenue narrative suddenly heated up, but this is where emotions are most easily misled.
On-chain revenue looks very attractive, and the activity on Robinhood Chain indeed brings new imagination to the Arbitrum ecosystem. The problem is, whose pockets is the revenue actually going into, how much returns to the DAO, and how much relates to ARB holders—these layers should not be mixed together in discussion.
The crypto community loves to directly translate “ecosystem making money” into “token should rise,” but often there are protocol revenue shares, governance rules, fee ownership, and market expectations in between.
What I think is truly worth watching about ARB this time is whether the L2 tech stack can make money by others launching chains. If it can, its business model will upgrade from “pulling users itself” to “renting out the financial infrastructure.”
#Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 LIT Continues Strong Momentum with Over 16% Gain in 24 Hours, Market Cap Surpasses $1.1 Billion
On September 4th, according to HTX market data, LIT rose more than 16% in 24 hours, priced at $4.41, with a market cap exceeding $1.1 billion. Over the past 30 days, it has gained 113.9%, continuing its multi-day upward trend.
This round of LIT's rise is not a single-day spike but a sustained increase over several days. The 24-hour gain exceeds 16%, currently priced at $4.41, and the market cap has officially crossed the $1.1 billion threshold. This scale means it has moved beyond being a micro-cap coin and entered the small to mid-cap altcoin range. More notably, its 30-day gain of 113.9% shows it has more than doubled in nearly one and a half months, indicating sustained buying interest rather than one-off speculation. From a market mechanism perspective, small-cap tokens often attract momentum funds and quantitative strategies after breaking key market cap thresholds, creating positive feedback. However, this also means there is significant profit-taking potential, and once momentum fades, the pullback could be equally severe. For the altcoin market, the continuous strength of certain small to mid-cap coins usually reflects some on-exchange funds rotating from mainstream coins to high-volatility assets. The persistence of such rotation can serve as a reference signal for observing market risk appetite. However, it is important to note that the performance of a single token heavily depends on its own capital structure and community enthusiasm, and its correlation with overall liquidity is not stable.Broadcom and Snowflake's earnings reports split AI trading into two types
Broadcom proves that the demand for underlying computing power and custom chips still exists, while Snowflake proves whether enterprises are willing to continue paying for data and AI software. One sells shovels, the other sells construction site management systems. Previously, the market got excited just by seeing the two letters AI, but now it asks in detail: can orders be realized, can gross margins be maintained, will customers continue to use it
I think the harshest point in the second half of AI is that revenue growth no longer automatically equals stock price rewards
Hardware companies fear customer concentration, software companies fear usage discontinuity. The companies that can truly survive this round of validation are not the ones best at talking about AI, but those best at turning AI into invoices
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 This non-farm payroll is like the last exam before the FOMC.
ADP has already poured cold water, showing a slowdown in private sector job growth, and initial claims haven't provided a particularly strong rebuttal either. Now the market isn't focused on a single employment figure, but on whether it will break through Wash's logic of "inflation hasn't been beaten yet, policy can't be loosened early."
BTC fears this kind of macro node the most. Not because it doesn't understand employment, but because traders will split the same data into two stories: weak employment bets on rate cuts; sticky wages bet on prolonged high interest rates. Both narratives can be told, making the market prone to volatility.
I think the real key this time is whether the market can still believe in the phrase "soft landing" after the data is released.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 🔥 $ETH got hit by macro pressure last night, but bounced back toward $2,490–$2,510 as softer jobs data and Powell’s comments eased rate concerns.
ETF flows remain mixed, showing rotation rather than broad accumulation.
Key levels:
🟢 $2,536 → first resistance
🟡 $2,459 → key support
🔴 Below $2,459 → $2,406/$2,355
For now, ETH is stuck around $2,450–$2,510. Don’t overreact to the bounce. CPI and the September FOMC remain the next major catalysts. 👀
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops While most traders focus on candlesticks and MACD, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has focused on a niche currency pair: EUR/JPY. He calls it the "North Star" for judging fiat currency liquidity. Currently, EURJPY is around 185, and Hayes expects it could drop to 140 or even lower by June next year. This is not just ordinary exchange rate fluctuations, but a transmission chain to the crypto market: a decline in EURJPY means a stronger yen, and Japanese and Asian funds are withdrawing from European assets, with the Bank of France bearing the brunt. As a participant in about 20% of the US repo market, if the Bank of France tightens its funding, it will push up U.S. Treasury financing costs, force hedge funds to deleverage, and ultimately force the New York Fed to expand repo operations, potentially expanding its balance sheet at nearly $10 billion per month. This is exactly what Hayes meant by "tighten first, then inject liquidity"—a falling exchange rate is a painful signal and a precursor to a flood of liquidity. On September 9, the U.S. Treasury's expanded Treasury bond repurchase will officially begin, with the single amount increasing from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, covering 10- to 30-year Treasuries, executed until November 4. Treasury Secretary Bessent further hinted at possibly using $935 billion of Treasury funds from the Federal Reserve's general account. Meanwhile, BTC fluctuated around $77,000, and the Fear and Greed Index fell back to 62, still in the greed range; ETF funds turned positive again after volatility in early September. Hayes's allocation strategy is: use Bitcoin as the benchmarkETH Latest Analysis: Price and Funding Interpretation After the Fed Turns Dovish
⚠️ This article is for market information purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency investment carries high risk; please make decisions cautiously.
1. Core Macro Signal: The Fed’s “Swing Hawk” Suddenly Turns Dovish
Fed Governor Waller’s statement on September 4 became a key market turning point:
1. He clearly stated that if August inflation data continues to slow, he would support keeping rates unchanged in September. This statement directly reduced the market’s probability of a September rate hike from 63% to 48.4%.
2. Waller, previously a hawkish official, was interpreted by the market as signaling that the Fed’s rate hike cycle is likely nearing its end. The US dollar index weakened accordingly, while gold, silver, and US tech stocks rose simultaneously.
3. The core impact of this signal on the crypto market is that funding pressure under a high interest rate environment is expected to marginally ease. ETH, as a highly elastic risk asset, is more sensitive to Fed policy than BTC.🔥 $BTC pumped hard, then pulled back from $81.38K. Don’t FOMO here.
BTC is around $80.7K after a sharp breakout, but volume surged near the highs while price stalled — a sign of profit-taking and late buyers getting trapped.
Key levels:
🟢 $81.0K–$81.38K → breakout zone
🟡 $80.4K → short-term support
🔴 $79.4K → key trend support
Holding $79.4K keeps the structure constructive. Losing it with volume could open $78.8K–$78.3K.
Trend intact, but chasing now carries risk.
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #Waller Cuts Hawkish Rate Hike Expectations in Half #BTC Violently Breaks 82,000
**Strong Rebound — Shorts Grounded, Macro Expectation Gap Triggers 24-Hour Short Squeeze Rally.**
---
**2️⃣ Core Logic Chain**
I judge today's market engine with one word: dovish.
What was the market originally betting on? A rate hike in September. CME FedWatch data showed that before Waller's speech, the probability of a 25bp hike in September surged from 37% a week ago to 62%-66%, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, BTC was repeatedly pressured between 77,000 and 78,000, ETFs saw net withdrawals exceeding $1.5 billion for seven consecutive days, and market sentiment was close to panic.
Then Federal Reserve Governor Waller said: if August inflation data shows cooling, he "leans toward supporting" holding rates steady. In one sentence, the rate hike probability was cut from 66% to around 50%. Coupled with initial jobless claims weakening more than expected that day, cracks appeared in the labor market — the market instantly realized: all previous rate hike bets were wrong.
Expectations were forcibly rewritten: from "definite rate hike in September" to "possibly no change in September." U.S. Treasury yields plunged, U.S. stocks, gold, and BTC all rose simultaneously. BTC broke through 80,000 from 77,000, reaching a high of 82,000. $450 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, with $366 million from short liquidations — shorts were collectively executed. This is not a fundamentals-driven bull market; this is a textbook short squeeze caused by expectation gaps.
---
**3️⃣ Mainstream Coin Stratification**
**BTC:** Absolute leader, up 6% intraday breaking 82,000, about 25% gain in August marking the strongest single month since November 2024. ETF net outflows of $1.5 billion over 7 days turned into a single-day net inflow of $115 million on Tuesday, signaling a potential turning point but not yet confirmed. On-chain data shows wallets holding 100-1000 BTC accumulating at the fastest pace since April by the end of August. Support at 78,000, resistance at 85,000. Can buy but don't chase above 82,000.
**ETH:** Followed with a 5% rise to 2494-2518 but clearly a supporting role — ETH ETF saw a net outflow of $53 million on Wednesday, with ETHA alone withdrawing $44.85 million. However, Abraxas Capital aggressively increased holdings by 16,554 ETH (~$41 million) within 12 hours, whales are bottom fishing. ETH/BTC ratio remains weak. For now, treat as a supporting player; don't expect independent strength.
**SOL:** Up 5.73% to around 105, elasticity moves in sync with BTC but with greater volatility. On-chain activity is average, mostly following BTC's beta rebound. Short-term elasticity is okay, but it also falls hardest on pullbacks. If you want to play elasticity, participate with a small position, avoid heavy exposure.
---
**4️⃣ Sector Quick Review**
**Strong:** GameFi sector up 8.87% in 24h, AKE single token surged 83% — oversold rebound plus thematic speculation, not a main theme; XRP leads mainstream coins up 3%, Ripple case funds replenishing payment narrative; crypto concept stocks collectively surged (Circle +13%, Strategy +12%, Coinbase +9%), U.S. stock funds show clear risk appetite recovery for crypto sector.
**Weak:** Meme sector fell 3.18% the previous day and only slightly recovered today, PUMP down 8.4%, TRUMP down 6.4% — speculative funds hurt by high volatility themes are reluctant to return; ETH ETF funds still outflowing, no incremental capital buying ETH ecosystem narrative.
Capital intention judgment: shifting from overall wait-and-see and risk aversion to attacking mainstream BTC, siphon effect obvious — money flows into BTC first, altcoins haven't gotten any soup yet. Style is "hold mainstream for risk aversion + quick rotation," not full-scale attack.
---
**5️⃣ Liquidations and Capital Flow**
$450 million liquidated across the network in 24h, over 96,000 people liquidated. Shorts liquidated $366 million, longs only $87.78 million — shorts were ground into the dirt. Network long-short ratio 48:52, short positions still slightly dominant, indicating short squeeze still has fuel but also means any pullback stampede could be fierce. Funding rates all turned positive but mild (Binance +0.0099%, Bybit +0.01%), far from overheating. Whale side: mid-to-large wallets accumulating at fastest pace since April, Abraxas aggressively increasing ETH holdings — big money voting with their feet.
Sentiment judgment: slightly greedy but not extreme. Funding rates not hot means chasing longs hasn't reached madness, but 6% single-day gain needs digestion.
---
**6️⃣ Tomorrow's Trading Tips**
① **Position Direction:** Mainly hold, add slightly on pullbacks to support, strictly no chasing above 82,000.
② **Leverage Advice:** Use low leverage, short squeeze rallies are easiest to be reversed at the end.
③ **Key Price Levels:** BTC support 78,000-79,000 / resistance 85,000; ETH support 2370 / resistance 2600; SOL support 95 / resistance 120.
④ **Key Events:** Friday U.S. August nonfarm payrolls — the most critical report before September FOMC. Strong employment means rate hike expectations heat up again; weak employment confirms dovish narrative. Also watch mid-September CPI and SUI/HYPE token unlocks.
⑤ **Core Risk:** Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly strong → rate hike probability back above 60% → this short squeeze rally instantly reverses, longs become cannon fodder.
⑥ **Closing Quote:** Waller's one sentence nailed shorts to the wall, but Friday's nonfarm is judgment day — don't mistake short squeeze for a trend, nor rebound for reversal.
---
⚠️ *This content is for market information and observation only, not investment or trading advice. Data updated: September 4, 2026, 08:00 (UTC+8). Sources: CoinGlass, Binance, OKX, CoinMarketCap, Gate, PANews, CLSA, etc.*⚠️$BTC's wild 24% surge is just the appetizer? The real big shock tonight might not be a rise!
$BTC has recently rebounded strongly, and the market is starting to revisit the "digital gold" narrative. On Thursday, BTC once broke through $80,000, with risk asset sentiment clearly warming up. (Barron’s)
But I actually think the biggest risk now is not how much BTC can still rise, but whether liquidity might suddenly turn hostile.
The macro narrative of gold and BTC is becoming increasingly similar; debt, rate cut expectations, and demand for safe-haven funds all reinforce this logic. However, the closer we get to previous highs, the more we cannot ignore the "ambush" of macro data.
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls are the first test. The market currently expects US August nonfarm payrolls to increase by only about 55,000, while July unexpectedly decreased by 23,000. (Investor’s Business Daily)
So chasing the rally at this point, in my view, has mediocre cost-effectiveness; waiting for a pullback confirmation feels more comfortable.
More interestingly, funds are not flooding into altcoins across the board but are searching for targets with real fundamental support:
🔹 $ARB: Revenue logic begins to materialize
Activity and trading volume on Robinhood Chain are rising, and the market is starting to reprice Arbitrum's ecosystem value. But with the short-term gains being too large and unlocking expectations, chasing highs still requires caution.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 The interesting part isn’t which one is moving fastest. It’s what is actually supporting the move. $UNI is the cleanest fundamental setup right now. Uniswap activity has surged, with daily swap count reportedly passing 7M while volume pushed above $1B. But the key question is whether that activity translates into sustainable value for UNI. $CP is the opposite: the catalyst is obvious. Cluster Protocol has just gone through a wave of major exchange listings, including OKX spot and perpetuals, $BTC BTC, $80,966, up 5%. It surged overnight from $76,310 to $82,278, with the $80,000 milestone right underfoot.
The catalyst is strong: Fed Governor Waller turned dovish, saying he supports no rate hike in September if inflation continues to cool. The previous probability of a rate hike was 62%, now completely reversed. The dollar plunged, US Treasury yields declined, and funds flooded into risk assets. Spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion in a single week, the largest since October 2025. CZ called for AI hot money to flow back into crypto. MicroStrategy shelled out another $370 million to buy more.
The Fear & Greed Index soared to 65, in the greed zone. But don’t panic—the futures open interest dropped from 645,760 BTC to 587,584 BTC. This isn’t a buildup of leveraged longs; it’s a short squeeze plus spot market push, making the structure healthier.
**Short-term bias is bullish, $80,966.** Support at $80,000→$78,000→$76,310→$74,000, resistance at $82,278→$85,000→$88,000→$90,000.
As long as the $80,000 pullback holds, it’s a buy-in point. The macro narrative has shifted; the debasement trade is back. $100K by year-end? Don’t rush, take it step by step.In the past 24 hours, the crypto market has finally moved beyond the "macro suppression + weak recovery" of the previous days, further shifting towards a clearer rebound in risk appetite. BTC has returned to $81,000, ETH rose more than 5% in a single day, and SOL recovered in sync; meanwhile, the US spot ETF has updated with some parts showing obvious net inflows again, rapidly heating up market sentiment. However, this rally has a very important characteristic: active capital inflows and forced short covering are happening simultaneously. Over $415 million in short positions were liquidated, meaning the strength of this rally cannot be entirely attributed to new spot buying. Therefore, what really needs to be judged today is not "how much it has risen," but whether this rebound can gradually transition from a short squeeze to a sustained capital-driven rally. Risk appetite has clearly recovered, and the rally is starting to spread. As of September 4, 09:03 HKT, BTC is at $81,006, up 5.10% in 24h; ETH is at $2,501.82, up 5.31%; SOL is at $103.59, up 4.13%. According to CoinGecko Charts, total crypto market capitalization has risen to about $2.816 trillion, up 4.41% in 24h, with BTC dominance around 57.79%. The biggest difference from the previous days is that today the recovery is no longer limited to BTC or a few high-beta assets alone. Among the top 30 non-stablecoin market caps, ZEC leads with a 16.59% increase, while the weakest performer, LEO, still rose 1.18%. In other words, in this statisticGood morning, crypto friends, this is Mouse's liquidation quick report
Below is the $SPCX 24-hour total network liquidation data.
The total liquidation amount for SPCX in 24 hours is: 5,760,400 USD.
Among them
The 24-hour long position liquidation amount is: 466,900 USD.
The 24-hour short position liquidation amount is: 5,293,500 USD. Tonight at 8:30 PM, the non-farm payroll data. BTC yesterday jumped directly from 77,000 to 81,000 because the market was already betting on weak data tonight.
The data itself: the market expects about 55,000 new jobs added in August, with the previous value at -23,000. The unemployment rate is expected to slightly rise from 4.1% to 4.2%. The real variable is how much it deviates from expectations, not the data quality itself.
Three scenarios:
· Data meets expectations (around 50,000): BTC has already risen 5.5% in advance, so the result will most likely be "good news already priced in," with a spike followed by a pullback and consolidation. $OKB will most likely follow BTC.
· Data far below expectations (below 30,000): The probability of a rate hike in September may fall below 50%, $BTC could have a chance to surge to 82,000-83,000. OKB, as a coin that follows the market, can ride this wave.
· Data exceeds expectations (above 80,000): ADP small non-farm was only 38,000, so if non-farm surges above 80,000, the contrast is too big, and rate hike expectations will quickly soar. BTC might crash directly from 80,000 back to 76,000 or even 73,500. OKB won’t outperform the market but will fall sharply; this scenario is the most dangerous for OKB. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 $ARB #Robinhood Chain volume surges, ARB revenue narrative heats up
$ARB has surged nearly 40% in two days. This time, it's not just pure speculation on the “L2 narrative”; Robinhood is really starting to send money to Arbitrum!
Robinhood Chain has seen a complete volume surge in the past two days. On September 1st, daily fees hit a new high of $3.75 million, with DEX trading volume exceeding $1.5 billion, even surpassing Ethereum mainnet and Base at one point. RC uses the Arbitrum tech stack, and according to the Expansion Program rules, 10% of net protocol revenue must be returned to the Arbitrum ecosystem.
More importantly, this money has already been received. In its first month online, RC contributed about $360,000 in authorization fees, accounting for 35% of Arbitrum DAO's monthly revenue; meanwhile, Arbitrum DAO's total revenue for the first half of this year was only $6.19 million.
So the market suddenly started to revalue $ARB in the past two days, with a 24-hour increase of over 12%.
However, it’s important to distinguish: the money currently goes into the DAO treasury, not directly distributed to ARB holders. Next, the focus is on whether Robinhood Chain’s trading volume can be sustained and whether the DAO will further link revenue to ARB’s value.
If these two things materialize, $ARB can truly transition from a “governance token” to an “asset supported by income.”
#Robinhood Chain volume surges, ARB revenue narrative heats up Why did Bitcoin suddenly surge from around 77,000 to 81,000 this time?
Many people's first reaction is to look for "what happened today," but I think the direction is wrong. The real accumulation for this rally actually happened before today.
In the past six days, BTC has been oscillating repeatedly around 77,000. The price seemed relatively stable, but capital and expectations were continuously building up. Today's rapid surge looks more like a concentrated release of the previously accumulated buy orders.
The capital flow had actually signaled this early on.
Since August 17, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen continuous capital inflows, totaling nearly 3 billion USD over nine trading days. In the last week of August alone, ETF net inflows reached about 1.92 billion USD, making it one of the strongest weeks this year. (Bitcoin News)
So this rally did not appear out of thin air.
There is also a market variable being traded in advance: September 15.
On that date, the U.S. Senate will hold a key vote on cryptocurrency regulation-related legislation, and the market has already started positioning ahead of this timeline. (Google)
Moreover, the policy direction itself is sending positive signals. The White House has publicly promoted the CLARITY Act, with the U.S. government aiming to maintain competitiveness in the crypto space. (Google)
The macro environment is also cooperating.
A weakening dollar and falling bond yields improve liquidity conditions for risk assets. BTC recently breaking above 80,000 happened against the backdrop of declining U.S. Treasury yields and improved risk asset sentiment. (Investopedia)
Looking at leverage.
If a rally is mainly driven by contract leverage, funding rates usually rise sharply. But currently, funding rates remain relatively moderate, indicating that, at least by this metric, the market is not experiencing an extremely crowded long trade.
More interestingly, the gains of risk assets like ETH and SOL have started to outpace BTC, showing that capital is not just returning to Bitcoin but that risk appetite across the entire crypto market is improving.
So I prefer to interpret this rally as:
Early capital inflows → Market expectation buildup → Macro environment improvement → Key resistance breakout → Further capital chasing prices.
What really deserves attention is not why BTC suddenly rose 4,000 USD today.
But what has happened in the past half month and what the market is trading ahead of.
September 15 is not far away now.
The market always prices in advance.
By the time news actually lands, the big move has often already happened.
This is why many people wait every day for "news confirmation," only to find out—
When they see the news, the price has already fully priced it in.
$BTC $ETH $CP #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 Good morning everyone, today is September 4th. Let's review the early gold market.
At 8:30 tonight, the focus will be on the non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data, which are the biggest events of the week. These will directly impact the Fed's rate hike expectations and determine the short-term trend of gold.
Currently, the market is under pressure at high levels and pulling back, with a clear weakening of upward momentum. The short-term trend is weak overall, entering a phase of consolidation and correction. Although the overnight ADP data was positive, its impact was limited and the bulls did not sustain.
Key resistance levels to watch during the day are 4495, 4515, and 4533, while support levels are at 4468 and 4445. A price pullback to support may trigger a short-term rebound, but after the rebound, there is still a chance of a decline testing 4424.
Tonight's non-farm data will cause significant volatility, with many stop hunts and false breakouts during the session. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the morning, avoid chasing gains or cutting losses aggressively, strictly control position size, and wait for the evening data release before trading with the trend! $XAU 400 million USD worth of ETH is being moved to exchanges, I won't buy at this level
The cost of this batch is 1700, current price 2430. Held for two years, up 43%, now starting to sell off in batches. It's not liquidation, not panic, it's active profit-taking.
In the past three days, this address has moved 109,800 ETH to exchanges at an average price of 2430, worth 266 million USD. There are still 58,000 ETH left, worth 140 million, planning to sell a total of 167,800 ETH, valued at 406 million USD.
At the same time, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw outflows of 236 million USD in one day, with BlackRock's IBIT alone outflowing 201 million. Two consecutive days of single-day outflows exceeding 200 million USD is the largest scale since July 31.
Some are selling, some are running, some are buying?
ETH is hovering around 2400, BTC is grinding near 77000. The US-Iran conflict is escalating, and the probability of a rate hike in September has surged to 66%. Funds are seeking safety, old money is taking profits, ETFs are flowing out.
My judgment is simple: this 400 million USD batch will most likely be fully sold.
Cost 1700, current price 2430, 43% profit. Selling off in batches at this level is not panic, it's reasonable profit-taking. I won't bottom-fish at this level, I'll wait until this 100,000 ETH batch is sold out.
$BTC $ETH