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📊 $ETH Contract Liquidation Express (September 3)
Bears dominated all day, with leverage declining stepwise from 4.13x to 2.07x — direction clear but momentum continuously weakening, extremely high concentration shows most liquidations completed within a 12-hour window
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $36.0082M $7.0136M $28.9946M
4 hours $42.8365M $7.4434M $35.3931M
12 hours $51.0741M $13.1104M $37.9637M
24 hours $65.5669M $21.3259M $44.2410M
1-hour bears crushed with 4.13x leverage, volume $36M; 4-hour bears 4.75x, volume rose to $42.8M, bear momentum briefly strengthened; 12-hour bears 2.89x, volume rose to $51.07M; 24-hour bears closed at 2.07x, liquidation $44.24M vs longs $21.33M, cumulative liquidation $65.57M. 12-hour liquidation accounts for 77.9% of 24-hour total, extremely concentrated. Leverage trajectory: 4.13x → 4.75x → 2.89x → 2.07x, forming an inverted V then continuous decline. Leverage recommended to compress below 3x, direction clear but momentum greatly weakened, avoid blindly shorting.
🔥 Market Indicator | September 3
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Nonfarm payroll data is the last puzzle piece before September rate hike, AI earnings and on-chain revenue narratives provide new market pricing anchors.
📊 Nonfarm Vanguard: Inflation still the main act, employment just the "appetizer"
US August nonfarm payrolls released Friday 8:30 PM. BofA sees nonfarm as just the "appetizer" — CPI remains key to September rate hike decision. Waller clearly states summer CPI decline but "underlying inflation trend not improved." Without a major employment drop, Waller must hike in September or face credibility risk.
🖥️ Broadcom and Snowflake: AI hardware and software side by side, market reacts vastly differently
Broadcom Q3 revenue $29.591B, +86% YoY, AI semiconductors $16.7B, +221% YoY. FY2028 AI revenue target $230B, but Q4 guidance slightly below expectations, after-hours down over 6%. Snowflake revenue $1.547B, +35%, accelerating for three consecutive quarters, AI programming assistant CoCo has 9,100 customer accounts, after-hours surged over 23%.
⛓️ Robinhood Chain volume surge: ARB soars 30% in one day due to "platform tax" narrative
ARB up nearly 30% in one day, driver: Robinhood Chain daily on-chain transaction revenue exceeds $2M, with 10% net protocol revenue returned to Arbitrum ecosystem, annualized revenue about $73M. ARB shifts from L2 bet to actual income-linked asset.
💎 Summary
Nonfarm data is the last puzzle piece before September rate hike, but CPI is the true decider; Broadcom’s $29.5B revenue proves AI hardware is still booming, but market won’t tolerate 1% guidance miss; Snowflake’s three consecutive quarters of accelerating growth prove AI software is delivering returns; ARB’s 30% surge marks on-chain revenue narrative becoming a new dimension in crypto asset pricing. ETH, as the second largest core asset, had $65.57M liquidation volume second only to BTC, bear leverage declined from 4.75x peak to 2.07x close. 77.9% extremely high concentration indicates most liquidations completed within 12-hour window. Bears still control but momentum severely insufficient, shorting before nonfarm release has very low cost-effectiveness. The big direction depends on nonfarm outcome. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
#Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 ISM Services PMI Surpasses Expectations, Economic Signals
The US ISM Services PMI for August recorded 55.4
Market expectation was 54.3, July's previous value was 54.1, a month-on-month increase of 1.3, significantly exceeding expectations
The value stands above the 50 expansion-contraction line, reaching a new high since April, indicating a clear recovery in service sector expansion momentum, ending the sideways oscillation around 54 in June-July. The data sequence from April to August: 53.6→54.5→54.0→54.1→55.4
Note: This diffusion index is not exactly equivalent to actual economic output growth rate, but a rising reading represents a warming in business activity sentiment.
The core conflicting signal in the market: service sector strength contrasts with a clear weakening in employment data
1. ISM service data is impressive, showing a rebound in business activity, reflecting ongoing economic resilience
2. ADP private sector job additions were only 38,000, the lowest since January this year, far below market expectations
On one hand, the economy shows resilience; on the other, the labor market is cooling down, with these two data sets pulling in opposite directions. The current policy rate is 3.75%, and this ISM data directly dispels the market’s unilateral expectation of an immediate rate cut due to weakening employment.
Impact on the September FOMC meeting:
ISM has already signaled a relatively strong service sector. The Federal Reserve’s final judgment will heavily depend on this Friday’s nonfarm payroll data and will be combined with inflation data for a comprehensive assessment.
The strength and resilience of the service sector will limit the Fed’s room for a rapid shift to easing; however, if the nonfarm data weakens significantly, it could reopen speculation about policy loosening.I am Cige. The ISM Services PMI is 55.4, higher than the expected 54.3, marking the highest since April. The service sector is still expanding, with momentum stronger than in June and July.
This data directly impacts the market's original certainty of policy shift based on cooling employment. Since April, the ISM Services PMI has been stuck between 53.6 and 54.5, but in August it jumped to 55.4, breaking the narrow fluctuation pattern. Service sector business activity remains resilient, and the economy has not stalled.
However, ADP data shows only 38,000, the weakest since January, indicating employment is cooling. The simultaneous strengthening of the service sector and weakening employment means economic resilience and labor cooling coexist, with inconsistent data directions. The Federal Reserve cannot find a clear policy path from this data set. September policy decisions will rely more on Friday's nonfarm payrolls and subsequent inflation data.
Impact on BTC: the data divergence means the direction is undecided, with short-term pressure but limited downside. The ISM Services exceeding expectations has raised rate hike expectations; rising oil prices combined with US-Iran conflicts continue to pressure inflation and suppress risk assets. Expect continued volatility and consolidation before nonfarm payrolls; don't bet on direction, wait for Friday's data before making moves. Cige has finished speaking, savor it. $BTC $ETH $SOL #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $FIL This round is driven by the "supply shock" logic
On-chain data has quietly undergone a qualitative change—FVM locked amount has surpassed 3.2 million FIL, a month-on-month surge of 55%, effectively removing a significant portion from the circulating supply. More importantly, the 40% month-on-month increase in storage orders is just a catalyst; the market is truly pricing in the deflation expectation after the halving in October: after the block reward is halved, the daily sell pressure drops sharply from 180,000 to 90,000 FIL, cutting the annual inflation rate in half.
The 24-hour trading volume has soared to $21 million, 4.2 times the monthly average, clearly indicating new capital entering the market to speculate. But don't forget the historical burden: FIL has dropped 99.7% from its peak, with a mountain of trapped positions, making every rebound a window for selling.
In the short term, $0.785 forms new support, $0.845 is strong resistance; if volume breaks above $0.83, sentiment could push it near $0.9. Falling below $0.78 would return it to a downward channel.
Strategically, treat it only as an event-driven short-term asset, set strict stop-losses, and avoid stubborn holding. The AI storage narrative can be told, but don't fool yourself—this remains a high-volatility chip game.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Japan's 10-year government bond yield hits 3% for the first time in 30 years
Then falls back to 2.97%
Japanese bond rates have been maintained at low levels for the past 30 years. During the rate hike period in the past 2 years, funds engaged in arbitrage trading have been flowing back into Japan
On Wednesday, Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takata raised the possibility of increasing or consecutive rate hikes to curb rising inflationary pressures.
There are two points to watch
The prosperity of Japanese stocks brought by the inflow of funds back to Japan, focus on platforms for Japanese stock RWA
US bonds are being sold off, funds are fleeing, the US dollar continues to depreciate, and gold may still rise
Japanese government bonds are the world's third-largest bond market and have played a special role over the past 30 years: the world's lowest-cost financing currency.
Therefore, many institutions have long engaged in arbitrage trading by borrowing yen to purchase US bonds, obtaining nearly 3%-5% risk-free returns.Actually, BTC's anti-inflation characteristics need to be viewed from two types of inflation.
One is slow fiscal inflation.
Fiscal deficits, long-term currency depreciation, and sovereign credit dilution will strengthen BTC's narrative as a scarce asset, which is beneficial for medium- to long-term allocation of Bitcoin.
The other is rapid energy-driven inflation.
A sudden rise in oil prices will push up inflation expectations, policy interest rates, and US Treasury yields. At the trading level, BTC behaves more like a high-duration liquidity asset, so its valuation will be suppressed in the short term.
Therefore, the current situation is not contradictory:
Long-term currency depreciation logic supports BTC, while short-term high interest rate logic suppresses BTC.
These two forces offset each other, so the price naturally consolidates. Moreover, as long as the 10-year yield continues to approach 5%, the long-term narrative will hardly immediately translate into sustained buying pressure for BTC.Tonight the overall market rose collectively, with BTC and gold both turning green, while MU, Micron, and SNDK bucked the trend and went up, showing an alternative market pattern.
Micron is a US stock affected by earnings reports and institutional portfolio adjustments, so it does not fully follow the crypto market sentiment.
SNDK, as a popular new coin, has a large amount of profit-taking inside the market; the overall market rise actually becomes a window for big players to sell, with funds being diverted by BTC.
A broad market rise does not mean all assets benefit equally. Don’t assume that if the market rises, your own asset will definitely catch up; you need to distinguish the chip logic specific to it.#Apple Reveals Ternus's Target Compensation After Leadership Change
The leader has something to say
After Ternus took over as Apple's CEO, the salary details have been released. An annual salary of $3 million, with a $55 million equity award target for fiscal year 2027, 75% of which are performance-based restricted stocks tied to Apple's shareholder returns relative to the S&P 500.
The Cook era officially ends.
Ternus previously managed hardware engineering; iPad, AirPods, Apple Watch, and Vision Pro were all under his charge. Now with a hardware background leading the team, the market is watching how Apple's AI strategy will unfold.
The new compensation structure links management incentives with shareholder returns, which is even more noteworthy than the leadership change itself. Going forward, whether Ternus can provide a clear roadmap on AI features, hardware innovation, and supply chain management will be key to supporting AAPL's valuation.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
The above analysis is timely; positions must have stop-loss orders set. Good luck.Sharing a successful rolling position with $UB. This afternoon, I noticed it kept rising, so I stayed out of the market and observed until the evening. At 22:30, I saw it start to consolidate at a high level, so I added a small short position with a wide stop loss. It just happened to coincide with the start of a downtrend. Every time, I waited for the 2-minute candle to close, then waited for a new low breakout. After the new low breakout, when it pulled back once, I added to the position again. Each time I added, it was two-thirds of the initial position size. This ensures that I won't lose all profits due to heavy averaging down during a pullback. Then I set the stop loss at the high of the previous candle, which guarantees not giving back too much profit. After three rounds of adding to the position, a spike hit my stop loss, ending the rolling position. Profits were secured.#US Treasury yields rebound, can BTC's safe-haven logic hold?
Recently, US Treasury yields have risen again, bringing renewed macro pressure. Bitcoin has entered a sideways consolidation phase after stagnating at a high level.
A notable recent change: BTC's correlation with gold continues to rise, while its linkage with US stocks weakens, as capital is redefining its asset attributes.
Historical data shows that September is often a month when the market tends to weaken, but in the past three years, September has closed higher each time; seasonality is only a reference and cannot determine the final direction.
The biggest market divergence now: can Bitcoin continue the safe-haven logic like gold, or does it still belong to high-risk assets, continuously suppressed by interest rates?
In the short term, there is no need to rush frequent trading; closely watch the movements of US Treasuries and the dollar, as macro signals are the core determinants of the trend.
$BTC BTC's violent surge is essentially the early realization of expectations before the non-farm payrolls.
This rebound from 76,700 to nearly 80,000 is mainly driven by ADP's small non-farm payrolls missing expectations, which cooled down rate hike expectations, combined with concentrated short covering. This is a rehearsal market before the data release, not the start of a new trend.
The driving logic is clear: August ADP employment data was significantly below market expectations, causing the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September to drop from 68% to around 60%. US Treasury yields fell accordingly, the US dollar index weakened, and gold, US stocks, and cryptocurrencies collectively rebounded. The amplified gains are due to a large accumulation of short positions from previous declines; once the price broke key levels, it triggered a chain of stop-losses, pushing a 3,000-point surge within 15 minutes, with passive buying accelerating the rise.
From the chart perspective, there is a volume-increasing rebound on the 15-minute level, MACD quickly turning positive, and short-term bullish momentum dominating. However, the 80,000 resistance level above remains strong, with significant pressure from both trapped positions and profit-taking. Tomorrow's official non-farm payroll data is the ultimate test. If the data continues to weaken and rate hike expectations cool further, the rally may have continuity; if the data exceeds expectations, the current surge might instead be an early realization before the bad news is fully priced in.
In terms of trading, I won't chase the highs; I will continue holding my base positions and raise the take-profit line to lock in profits. The real entry point will be considered after the non-farm data is released. During this expectation game phase, don't mistake the rebound for a reversal.
What do you think about tomorrow's non-farm payroll data—will it be bearish or bullish?
$BTC $ETH This time, 21 banks have joined forces to launch a US dollar stablecoin, aiming to go live in the first half of 2027, and even a company has been established!
Yesterday, these 21 globally systemically important banks finalized the plan.
The approach is exactly the same as the TradFi beachhead we discussed before.
Strong lineup: Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citibank, Fidelity, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Mitsubishi UFJ are all included; 21 banks across five continents, basically covering global US dollar clearing flows. This is a settlement layer alliance, not a marketing stunt.
The timing is tight. Only 10 banks were exploring this in October last year, doubling in less than a year; behind this is Trump’s January 2025 executive order banning CBDCs and only supporting private US dollar stablecoins. This wave from banks is a policy-driven rush to grab payment licenses.
The target is directly USDC and USDT. The stablecoin market is $309.6 billion, with USDT accounting for $183.4 billion, but the bank coin is aimed at institutional settlement and corporate treasury. Circle was backstabbed in June by Visa/Mastercard/Stripe setting up Open USD, causing its stock to crash; now with 21 banks joining, Circle is the one truly worried.
However, the company name, blockchain, and custodian have not been decided yet, JPMorgan Chase is not in the group, and the real outcome will only be seen in 2027. The midgame has arrived, and the sacrifice of pieces is set in stone—Uber's CEO has executed a "Fool's Mate" that left Wall Street breathless. He personally cut nearly 3,300 pawns, slashed 20% of the officers, transforming the management from a densely fortified phalanx into a slender, swift flank line. This is not surrender; it's to give the long-prepared queen of "autonomous driving" the speed to advance on a cleared board.
In the eyes of a chess grandmaster, layoffs are always a "positional sacrifice." Giving up the static value of a few pawns now in exchange for more open lines and faster mobilization. Merging small teams and cutting overlapping command layers is like repositioning clustered pieces to more critical squares. Uber's formation resembles a sudden shift from the closed Caro-Kann Defense to the Sicilian Najdorf Variation—no longer crowded in the center, the wings now have sharp moves. The saved costs themselves are not worth clinging to; the real gain lies in regaining control of the game's tempo.
But professional players know well that tempo is illusory; control is real. Uber wants to invest every saved chip into preparing the opening for an "autonomous future," but this passed pawn is still on someone else's board. The dispatch platform cannot block opponents who hold the entire technology engine. Players like Waymo and Tesla hold the complete lineage of autonomy rights and have already calculated how to promote twenty moves ahead. Uber's global mobility network is a well-occupied stronghold, but without a core technology diagonal running through it, even vast territory is just a group of isolated pieces that cannot coordinate.
Looking at the entire electronic chessboard reflected by $xQQQ: the big pieces are those light pieces ready to support at any time, and the sentiment of tech stocks is like an open line that could be blocked at any moment. For the market to give Uber a lasting valuation reset, it needs a "checkmate," not a perpetual check. The money saved from layoffs is just a small net gain after exchange; if the rollout of autonomous taxis lags expectations, Uber, having lost the time advantage, will be ground down in the endgame. That 20% cut management layer could have served as a defensive fortress at the peak of the game; now it is equivalent to voluntarily removing the buffer pawn chain in front of the king's wing.
This position strongly resembles a typical "open game with mutual attacks": every sacrifice carries the intent of a long-range shot, but true initiative depends on who can first maneuver their rook onto that unobstructed straight line. Uber uses massive layoffs to obtain a lighter, more information-driven formation, showing the market it is willing to sacrifice today for the future. However, the trap professional players fear most is letting the opponent hesitate in the face of seemingly proactive sacrifices. Those with native autonomous driving capabilities don't rush to capture pieces; they can keep their forces centralized, patiently waiting for the overextension of the rear pawn chain.
Now, every move Uber makes tests whether it can elevate itself from a platform dispatcher to a true player. It must prove that what it lost were not rooks and bishops, but redundant pieces that could never enter the final endgame. If the implementation of autonomous driving is just a paper promotion, then this large-scale restructuring is merely a proactive repositioning that loses the king's wing protection.
One sacrifice, one invitation—Uber has not yet delivered check, but it has left its king on an open e-file. The person in the driver's seat: are they the player, or just a piece destined to be exchanged on the board? #uber10%cutsrobotaxibetServices ISM data supports Wash's hawkish policies, but Wash has started to guide market expectations. The market actually believes the latter? Strange! August services ISM data released shows overall strength, with detailed data showing strong new orders, weak employment, and payments prices higher than expected. This means tonight's portfolio is a mild stagflation combination: strong new orders + weak employment + high payment prices. This data suggests resilient U.S. economic growth, employment weakening but no risk of stalling, and inflationary pressures remain high. This is clearly a mild stagflation combination, and even more pronounced than Tuesday's manufacturing ISM. Originally, it was not supported to weaken the probability of a rate hike in September, but the CME currently shows the probability of a rate hike in September has dropped from 60.2% to 50.4%, which puzzles me. #FOMC前最后一组数据: This Friday's nonfarm payrolls. If the data itself hadn't affected market expectations, it would be Tonight's Waller speech. In his speech, Waller stated that the probability of a rate hike in September is not guaranteed, implying that Waller does not support a rate hike, which may be the main factor currently reducing the probability of a rate hike in September to the main point. However, if the market trusts Waller, then a contradiction arises. Under Walsh's policy, he repeatedly called for the Fed to reduce forward-looking guidance, especially for central bank policies, but Waller's speech clearly overturned his policy expectations. More importantly, the market believed Waller's guidance. Does this mean Walsh's so-called policy of reducing forward-looking guidance is a failure? The market does not accept such policiesAfter igniting long-lost enthusiasm on the quiet Robinhood Chain, Circle's chain Arc is also coming, with the mainnet launching on 9/16, just two weeks away.
With Robinhood plus Circle, can they create a wave of DeFi Summer momentum?
New chains bring new opportunities, as recently demonstrated by Robinhood Chain. It's still uncertain what phenomenal Meme will emerge on-chain, but the liquidity providers (trading platforms) will definitely benefit from the incremental dividends brought by the new chain: Uniswap benefited from Robinhood Chain deployment, rising from $2.8 to $6.3 in two months; Lighter benefited from Robinhood Chain deployment, rising from $2 to $4.
So, should we pay attention to platforms that will deploy simultaneously with the Arc mainnet? Currently, Uniswap, Aave, and edgeX are expected.
Everyone is familiar with Uniswap and Aave. As for edgeX, it is a Perp platform that will launch Arc's first 24/7 forex perpetual contracts on the first day of Arc mainnet launch, as well as over 150 perpetual contract markets covering crypto, US stocks, and commodities. $UNI $AAVE 🚨 BTC’S BIGGEST TEST THIS WEEK ISN’T WEDNESDAY — IT’S FRIDAY.
Forget the noise around Waller’s speech for a moment. The real market-moving event is coming: US Nonfarm Payrolls.
This could decide whether Bitcoin gets another shot at $80,000 — or faces more short-term pressure.
#DailyOrbit USELESS surges in the short term to surpass $190 million in market cap, up over 58% in 24 hours Solana ecosystem meme coin USELESS surpassed $190 million, up more than 58% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of about $20.6 million, continuing the strong momentum seen after KOL 'Bonk Guy' publicly expressed bullish sentiment on September 1. On September 3, according to GMGN data, Solana ecosystem meme coin USELESS surged in the short term, with a market cap surpassing $190 million, a 24-hour increase of over 58%, and a 24-hour trading volume of about $20.6 million, continuing its recent strong trend. Reviewing the event background: On September 1, trader 'Bonk Guy,' who became famous for early trading of BONK, publicly stated that his current bullish outlook on USELESS even surpasses the period when trading BONK in 2023. The core argument is that USELESS previously rose from about $4 million in market cap to $450 million in non-bull market conditions, an increase of over a hundredfold, indicating that the coin has independent market genes outside the broader market; He further deduced that if USELESS experiences a true bull market for the first time, it could see even greater gains. On the day this statement was made, USELESS surged over 50%, with its market cap surpassing $100 million. Mechanically, this is a typical KOL narrative-driven meme coin rally. USELESS lacks cash flow and real use case support; its pricing relies heavily on community consensus, attention flow, and the influence of top opinion leaders.Topping out the structure does not equal building completion; the real game changer is the row of cast-in-place piles beneath the bearing platform. Nvidia has transformed $3.5 billion into prestressed steel tendons, bypassing the common equity window and directly anchoring into MediaTek’s existing foundation. This is not just a facade replacement; it involves demolishing part of the load-bearing wall: MediaTek is being reclassified from a consumer electronics storefront structure into a high-speed network for intelligent computing system integration.
Let’s look at two construction diagrams. MediaTek’s original blueprint is a general atlas for low-power chip row houses—scattered usage scenarios, low load requirements, and nodes designed to save materials and labor. Nvidia’s NVLink Fusion beam grid system is inherently designed for rack-level data center profiles: large spans, high thermal density, and power redundancy that must run vertically. The height difference between the two cannot be leveled by simply adding two columns. To convert the brick-and-concrete row houses into a large-span hall, the transverse main walls must be removed, diagonal braces and transfer trusses installed, GPU interconnect pipelines embedded inside hollow-core beams, and the entire load path rebuilt.
Convertible bonds at this moment are neither debt nor equity; they are temporary progress payments for structural reinforcement. Designers understand: advance funding for site entry is normal, but converting advances into equity requires a critical strength inflection point. Nvidia places the risk of concrete curing on MediaTek—if MediaTek can turn samples into formal load-bearing components in custom chips, PC computing platforms, and in-vehicle cockpit systems, the advance converts into permanent shares; if orders, profits, and valuation floors are not met in time, the $3.5 billion is just an expensive polymer waterproof membrane that never enters the structural load-bearing system.
Now look at $XCH’s structural diagram: as a storage block on the old blueprint, it uses spatial-temporal proofing to create prefabricated masonry, with rows of hard drives stacked solidly and sturdily, but the shear walls are too dense. Once the intelligent computing elevated network passes overhead, the height difference between the new network and the old storage foundation becomes a transfer layer issue the structural engineer must address. If $XCH just waits for the wind in place, it will misalign with the data center’s ramps; to coordinate, tie beams must be added between capacity scheduling, latency, and heat dissipation, making distributed storage the core slab of the intelligent computing core tube. This won’t cause sudden price swings due to this news image, but after the foundation soil is disturbed by adjacent excavation, the load distribution has already been rewritten during the long settlement process.
All great projects ultimately fail at node detailing. After Nvidia’s funds enter the site, what matters is whether MediaTek can turn the cooperation drawings into a real construction organization design: whether the supply chain transport routes are sufficient, whether capillary cooling pipes avoid structural beams, and whether process maturity can meet rack-level load batch approvals. Once equipment pipeline clashes occur, the benefit targets on the drawings collapse. If it’s just a decorative partner in a consortium bid, the brighter the dawn, the more hollow the structure.
The NVLink Fusion steel beams have been hoisted to the designated elevation, but how wide should the settlement joint be between MediaTek’s pile foundation on the old site and $XCH’s old slab? The answer is not in the tower crane but in the load distribution diagrams in the detail engineer’s hands. I close the drawings, leaving only one verification note: a building that cannot withstand moment checks, the earlier the lights turn on, the more it proves there is no space worth visiting deep inside the main structure. #nvidiabacksmediatek $CORE officially announces the destruction of 150 million excess tokens. Is the CORE crisis really over?
A key development has emerged in the $CORE incident. Core DAO officially announced: the v1.0.26 hard fork is now live, and over 150 million excess CORE tokens have been destroyed and permanently removed from the supply. Staking rewards are expected to return to normal within 48 hours.
This means the market’s biggest concern—the risk of a massive amount of abnormal tokens impacting the circulating supply—has been substantially alleviated. The protocol-level vulnerability has been sealed, no new excess issuance will occur, and the ecosystem’s basic functions are gradually returning to normal.
However, whether the crisis is truly over remains uncertain, with several key questions still unanswered.
The official statement clearly says "no transactions were rolled back," so have all tokens that were transferred out from malicious validator addresses and entered the market been fully recovered and destroyed? The specific addresses covered by the destruction of 150 million tokens have not been fully disclosed.
A complete post-incident analysis report has yet to be released; the root cause of the vulnerability, its impact scope, and responsibility allocation remain unclear. Previous issues such as bad debts in lending markets and contract logic errors were not mentioned at all in this announcement.
The hard fork can fix the code, and destruction can remove abnormal tokens, but restoring community trust requires a complete, honest, and reproducible public report—not just a single announcement.
Staking rewards will return to normal after 48 hours, and on-chain data at that time will provide a more accurate answer.$BTC —$ETH —$SOL start pulling up again at night; recently, these three pieces of news are redefining the direction.
$BTC is hovering around 78,000, $ETH back to 2,420.
👇👇👇
Nonfarm payrolls are the biggest variable this week, the last set of data before the FOMC. But Bank of America said this is just an "appetizer"; the real decision on whether to raise rates in September depends on the CPI on September 11. ADP has weakened for three consecutive months, with only 38,000 added in August, but the probability of a rate hike remains above 60%, indicating the market has already priced it in. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
MSCI is pushing for digital asset treasury qualification review; Strategy and Metaplanet may be removed. $BTC, as a core reserve asset, will face short-term pressure if passive funds rebalance. However, if $BTC is allowed to be included as an operating asset in the future, it could actually increase institutional allocation willingness, making it a double-edged sword. #加密财库扩张面临指数资格考验
Broadcom's earnings exceeded expectations, Snowflake raised guidance, with AI hardware and software both outperforming. Although $BTC and $ETH did not directly follow the rally, the Nasdaq held steady, so crypto liquidity won't be drained too harshly. #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
These three directions converge: nonfarm payrolls give direction, index qualification puts pressure on $BTC, AI earnings support sentiment. The bias is bullish, but don't chase highs; wait for a pullback before acting. Reviewing the complete context of this market cycle, starting from the April low of $250, ZEC has steadily risen, reaching a peak of $880 on August 23, marking an eight-year high since 2018, with a maximum increase of over 230%. Its market capitalization once surpassed $13.8 billion, placing it among the top 11-12 in the crypto market. During the most frenzied phase, the 24-hour futures trading volume approached $10 billion, with open interest in contracts significantly rising, leveraged funds flooding in wildly, and the community widely speculating on a $1,000 target. The market treated the launch of the Grayscale spot ETF as a definitive signal for value revaluation.
From the chart structure perspective, ZEC's volatility is significantly higher than BTC's; its 30-day realized volatility far exceeds that of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Sharp rises and falls and two-way liquidations are the norm. It has a very strong Beta characteristic, making it difficult to move independently from the broader market. When overall market risk appetite improves, privacy-themed assets are easily speculated on by capital; once macro tightening occurs and the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations rise, ZEC's retracement tends to be greater than that of mainstream coins. In the short term, the ETF's positive impact has been fully priced in. Going forward, the market will no longer simply speculate on stories but will start focusing on several real indicators: ETF capital inflows and outflows, shielded pool proportion, shielded transaction activity, and whale unlocking and transfer behaviors. $ZEC #FOMC Last Data Set Before: This Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls
$BTC ——$ETH
The US ISM Services PMI for August rose to 55.4, higher than the expected 54.3, up 1.3 points from July's 54.1, exceeding expectations by 1.1 points. This index is 5.4 points above the 50 expansion-contraction line and marks the highest level since April, indicating that the service sector remains in expansion territory with momentum warming compared to June and July. For the market, this weakens the certainty of a policy shift based solely on cooling employment.
Since April, the ISM Services PMI readings were 53.6, 54.5, 54.0, 54.1, and 55.4 respectively; the August reading ended the narrow fluctuations around 54 since June. The improvement in the diffusion index cannot be converted into output growth rate, but the upward shift in points indicates that service sector business activity remains resilient.
Employment signals are inconsistent. According to ADP data, US private sector job additions in August were only 38,000, the weakest increase since January and below expectations. The strengthening of the Services PMI alongside slowing employment means the Federal Reserve continues to face a combination of growth resilience and labor market cooling at a 3.75% policy rate. The September policy decision may rely more on Friday's nonfarm payrolls and subsequent inflation data.The August ISM Services PMI rebounded beyond expectations, combined with the service price index hitting a four-year high. Essentially, this is a dual confirmation of the resilience of the U.S. economy and the stickiness of service inflation, directly correcting the market's previous overpricing of the "Fed's rapid pivot to rate cuts" expectation. The probability of a rate cut in September has significantly declined, and the policy wait-and-see period has further extended. $BTC $ETH $SOL #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
The US ISM Services PMI for August rose to 55.4, higher than the expected 54.3 and up 1.3 points from July's 54.1, exceeding expectations by 1.1 points. This index is 5.4 points above the 50 expansion-contraction line and marks the highest level since April, indicating that the service sector remains in expansion territory with momentum warming compared to June and July. For the market, this weakens the certainty of policy shifts based solely on cooling employment.
Since April, the ISM Services PMI readings were 53.6, 54.5, 54.0, 54.1, and 55.4 for August, with the August figure ending the narrow fluctuations around 54 since June. The improvement in the diffusion index cannot be directly translated into output growth, but the upward shift in points indicates that service sector business activity remains resilient.
Employment signals are inconsistent. According to ADP data, US private sector job additions in August were only 38,000, the weakest increase since January and below expectations. The coexistence of a strengthening Services PMI and slowing employment means the Federal Reserve, with a policy rate of 3.75%, continues to face a combination of growth resilience and labor market cooling. The September policy decision may rely more heavily on Friday's nonfarm payrolls and subsequent inflation data.Waller's Statement: Whether to Raise Rates in September Highly Depends on August CPI Data
On September 3, Federal Reserve Governor Waller sent a clear policy signal externally that whether the September FOMC meeting will initiate a rate hike largely depends on the upcoming August inflation CPI data to be released next week.
Waller stated that if inflation continues to steadily decline toward the 2% target, he is willing to support maintaining the current interest rates. However, if the August inflation data exceeds market expectations and the cooling trend of inflation reverses, he would consider supporting a rate hike, making a slight policy adjustment to ensure inflation returns to the target range.
He evaluated that the current monetary policy is slightly suppressing economic growth, and also mentioned that a slight uptick in inflation does not immediately lead to tightening policy; the key is whether the downward trend of inflation is disrupted. Although the current inflation level remains significantly above the 2% policy target, a series of recent economic data have already shown signs of inflation gradually cooling.
This statement means the Federal Reserve has handed over policy decision-making power to inflation data, and hawkish rhetoric no longer directly equals an actual rate hike. The market is now focused on the August CPI results: if inflation rebounds beyond expectations, the probability of a September rate hike will further increase; if inflation continues to decline, maintaining the current rate will become the mainstream choice.
For the risk asset market, this speech amplifies the uncertainty during the data window period. Before the CPI release, the market will remain in a wait-and-see state, with the market prone to wide fluctuations. Once the inflation data is released, the U.S. stock market, crypto market, and gold will face directional choices, and the quality of the data will directly determine the short-term trajectory of subsequent asset prices
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 The biggest mistake in a bull market is thinking every dip is a buying opportunity.
What really matters is layering, not rushing in just because you see green or catching every pullback. My framework is rather simple: the base layer holds BTC and ETH, with solid liquidity and narrative; the momentum layer includes SOL and SUI, as their ecosystems and capital interest remain strong; above that, I pick assets with real incremental growth like LINK and ONDO, focusing on RWA/oracle types that can clearly explain revenue or adoption; the tail positions go to high-volatility new chains/modular directions, such as TIA and SEI, with strict weight control.
The macro environment is not reassuring now—employment data, interest rate paths, the dollar, and US Treasuries all weigh on risk asset valuations, and altcoins are especially vulnerable to liquidity withdrawal. Not every correction is worth buying, nor does every popular tag have sustained buying pressure. Instead of trying to predict every spike, it’s better to predefine: where to add, what signals to reduce, and when to admit mistakes.
Positions must have exit logic; coins need narrative + liquidity + catalysts like listings/ecosystem/earnings-level events. Being prepared is more important than being right, and discipline always beats FOMO.
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 The US ISM Services PMI rose to 55.4 in August, higher than the expected 54.3 and up 1.3 points from July's 54.1, exceeding expectations by 1.1 points. The index is 5.4 points above the 50 expansion-contraction line and reached its highest level since April, indicating that the service sector remains in expansion territory with momentum warming compared to June and July. For the market, this weakens the certainty of a policy shift based solely on cooling employment.
Since April, the ISM Services PMI readings were 53.6, 54.5, 54.0, 54.1, and 55.4 respectively, with the August figure ending the narrow fluctuations around 54 since June. The improvement in the diffusion index cannot be directly translated into output growth rate, but the upward shift in points indicates that service sector business activity remains resilient.
Employment signals are inconsistent. According to ADP data, US private sector job additions in August were only 38,000, the weakest increase since January and below expectations. The strengthening of the Services PMI alongside slowing employment means the Federal Reserve continues to face a combination of growth resilience and labor market cooling at a 3.75% policy rate. The September policy decision may rely more on Friday's nonfarm payrolls and subsequent inflation data. #FOMC last data set before Friday's nonfarm payrolls #FOMC last set of data before: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday
This surge is really strong, will it reach 80,000 by tomorrow morning?
Just took a look, $BTC jumped directly from around 77,000 to over 79,700, this surge is indeed fierce. Nonfarm data hasn't come out yet, but the market has already started to run ahead.
During the day it was hovering around 77,000, now it's already close to 80,000. This wave is mainly funds running ahead of expectations—ADP was only 38,000, the data is indeed cooling down, some are betting that the nonfarm data will be lower than expected and are positioning early.
But I’m not confident about the 80,000 level, previous times it surged near 80,000 it was pushed back, there are indeed a lot of sell orders around 80,000. There are many trapped positions waiting to be freed at this level, whether it can break through is really uncertain.
Will it be 80,000 right when the market opens tomorrow? Hard to say. From a technical perspective, the daily RSI has already reached the overbought zone at 70.7, chasing at this level carries considerable risk. If it can leverage the momentum from the nonfarm data to firmly hold above 80,000, that would be a real breakout; if the data disappoints, it’s likely to be a classic surge and fall scenario. For now, just hold and watch, wait for the data to come out before making any moves.The Pentagon still lists Anthropic, valued at tens of billions, on its supply chain risk list, pouring cold water on the fervent AI capital.
Many people think that the big model giants can dominate global commercial orders just by securing tens of billions in investments from Amazon and Google, but the reality is that centralized AI is hitting the hardest political wall.
Under the magnifying glass of national security and military-political procurement, purely commercial technological advantages are insignificant. Even a hint of foreign capital background, equity entanglement, or code alignment black boxes behind a large model will instantly be labeled uncontrollable. This means that no matter how high the parameters of top-tier closed-source models are stacked, in the most profitable and sticky sovereign-level and critical infrastructure markets, they always face the risk of supply cutoffs by a single veto.
This also exposes the biggest vulnerability of centralized AI.
When the computing power and intelligence hubs of the entire society are locked in the hands of a few private Silicon Valley companies, users face not only technological dependence but also supply chain risks that could explode at any time. This is why, no matter how fast centralized models run, the open-source camp and on-chain decentralized computing power networks continue to push forward stubbornly, because no critical system can entrust its lifeline to a commercial entity that might be blacklisted.
Seeing clearly this camp-based division caused by geopolitical censorship, do you think the future AI ecosystem will continue toward oligopoly, or will it be forced toward open source and decentralization?
#Anthropic算力采购加码，IPO成本受关注 🚨 Tomorrow night could be a BIG moment for Bitcoin. Will $BTC pump or dump?
The final major labor-market test before the September FOMC meeting is here.
📅 September 4 — 8:30 PM Beijing time
🇺🇸 August Nonfarm Payrolls will be released.
But here’s the part many traders may overlook 👀
Don’t just watch the headline jobs number. Watch the revisions.
Last time, July employment was revised down by 23K, while May and June were collectively revised down by 103K.
#DailyOrbit #加密财库扩张面临指数资格考验
MSCI uses "operating assets" as a threshold, which on the surface is a financial classification, but essentially asks a more fundamental question—whether hoarding coins counts as a legitimate business. Index compilers are redefining "what is a company" through their rules.
MSCI is tightening up. On August 3, it launched a new consultation setting a two-stage screening for "non-operating companies." Only those with operating assets accounting for more than 50% of total assets pass the initial screening; those who fail will be evaluated based on five financial indicators.
Strategy formally opposed this on August 31, calling the method "discriminatory, arbitrary, and misleading." Saylor bluntly stated, "MSCI should be a mirror of the market, not a referee." However, 3.1% of the free float is held by funds tracking the MSCI index, equivalent to 60% of the 30-day average trading volume. Once removed, passive funds will be forced to exit about $2.8 billion.
Russell is opening the door. Multiple crypto treasury companies have been included in the Russell 3000 index. BitMine and Galaxy Digital directly entered the Russell 1000 due to meeting market cap requirements. Passive funds tracking Russell indexes amount to about $10.6 trillion; inclusion means forced buying.
Two sets of indexes, two sets of rules. Russell is accepting, MSCI is screening. Whether crypto treasuries can be included in mainstream indexes depends on the compilers' definition of "operating." Whether hoarding coins counts as operating is the question whose answer will determine the flow of tens of billions in passive funds. #日本长债收益率升至高位
The global bond market is undergoing a collective revaluation.
On September 1st, the yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds hit 3%, briefly reaching 3.01%, the highest since September 1996. The yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds also rose to 4.18%, near historical highs. This upward trend is not limited to Japan—during the same period, U.S. Treasury yields have been rising, and long-term bond yields in the UK and Germany are also hovering near multi-year highs.
It's not that Japan itself has problems; the global market is simultaneously re-evaluating inflation, fiscal deficits, and bond issuance pressures. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has stayed above 5% for 41 consecutive days, Japan's 10-year yield has surpassed 3%, and long-term bonds in the UK and Germany remain high. This is not a one-legged move; the entire system is repricing.
The impact on the crypto space centers on yen carry trades. Over the past decade, the yen has been the largest funding currency for global carry trades—institutions borrow yen at near-zero cost to buy high-yield assets, with cryptocurrencies being a significant destination. With Japan's 10-year yield rising above 3%, the cost of borrowing yen is rapidly increasing. If the Bank of Japan continues to raise rates, the chain of borrowing to speculate on crypto will be continuously compressed, and the unwinding of carry trades will force funds out of the crypto market, tightening liquidity conditions.
Bitcoin hopes to trigger a big rally based on rate cut expectations, but clear signals are not yet visible. However, high interest rates suppress valuations, not narratives. If the CLARITY Act passes on September 15th, the regulatory framework's positive effects will offset some of the macro headwinds.
$BTC 2026.9.3 Evening Market Analysis Summary
On Thursday, the market experienced a rebound recovery. The panic triggered by the escalation of the US-Iran conflict and soaring oil prices on Wednesday eased somewhat on Thursday—Trump is privately considering officially declaring the end of the US-Iran war, causing the geopolitical risk premium to loosen. Brent crude oil fell from around $96 on Wednesday to below $95. However, oil prices remain about 40% higher than the same period last year, and inflationary pressure has not truly eased.
$BTC is reported near $79,000 today, with a 24-hour increase of about 2.1%. Intraday, it once touched above $79,000, rebounding significantly from Wednesday's low of $76,400. Bitcoin's dominance remains high at 59.57%, with funds still tending to flow into BTC amid geopolitical risks. The altcoin season index is only 32, far below the threshold of 75.
$ETH is reported near $2,400 today, with a slight 24-hour increase of about 1%. The intraday range is approximately $2,356 to $2,429. The 4-hour chart shows a technical rebound pattern after breaking the M-top, with short-term direction still unclear. The ETH/BTC exchange rate remains under pressure.
$SOL is reported near $100 today, having once fallen below the key psychological level of $100 intraday. Its high beta characteristic causes it to lag behind Bitcoin in the rebound.
$XRP is reported near $1.36-$1.37 today, with a 24-hour increase of about 1.5%. XRP remains above the 200-day EMA ($1.350), and the relative strength index at 59 indicates moderate momentum.
$DOGE is reported near $0.0835 today, with a 24-hour increase of about 2.3%. It has fallen back to around $0.08 from the August rebound high, raising concerns about a "Red September."
$BNB is reported near $700 today, with a 24-hour increase of about 1.7%-1.9%, continuing the upward trend that started around $600 in August.
Regarding ETF data—Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $101 million yesterday, ending the net outflow trend of $236 million on Tuesday, with BlackRock's IBIT leading with a net inflow of $115 million. Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows.
Liquidation data—In the past 24 hours, the total network liquidations were about $248 million to $370 million. Notably, short liquidations were about $168 million, far exceeding long liquidations of $80.09 million, indicating a large number of shorts were liquidated during the rebound.
Summary: The fading geopolitical risk premium has driven the market rebound, but oil prices remain high, and the September rate hike expectation stays between 50%-65%, so macro headwinds persist. Bitcoin, with its "relative safety" attribute, has become a safe haven for funds and shows the strongest rebound. Altcoins have followed but with limited strength; this is not a full bull market start but a technical repair after panic. The altcoin season index is only 32, with funds still concentrating on Bitcoin.
On Thursday night, closely watch whether Trump officially announces a ceasefire, oil price trends, and the preview signals of Friday's nonfarm payroll data. High volatility remains the norm until geopolitical risks are fully resolved. Watch more, trade less, and protect principal.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
#Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 The US ISM Services PMI rose to 55.4 in August, higher than the expected 54.3 and up 1.3 points from July's 54.1, exceeding expectations by 1.1 points. The index is 5.4 points above the 50 expansion-contraction line and reached its highest level since April, indicating that the service sector remains in expansion territory with momentum warming compared to June and July. For the market, this weakens the certainty of a policy shift based solely on cooling employment.
Since April, the ISM Services PMI readings were 53.6, 54.5, 54.0, 54.1, and 55.4, with the August figure ending the narrow fluctuations around 54 since June. The improvement in the diffusion index cannot be directly translated into output growth, but the upward shift in points indicates that service sector business activity remains resilient.
Employment signals are inconsistent. According to ADP data, US private sector job additions in August were only 38,000, the weakest increase since January and below expectations. The strengthening of the Services PMI alongside slowing employment means the Federal Reserve continues to face a combination of growth resilience and labor market cooling at a 3.75% policy rate. The September policy decision may rely more heavily on Friday's nonfarm payrolls and subsequent inflation data.The US ISM Services PMI for August rose to 55.4, higher than the expected 54.3 and up 1.3 points from July's 54.1, exceeding expectations by 1.1 points. This index is 5.4 points above the 50-point expansion threshold and marks the highest level since April, indicating that the service sector remains in expansion territory with momentum warming compared to June and July. For the market, this weakens the certainty of a policy shift based solely on cooling employment.
Since April, the ISM Services PMI readings were 53.6, 54.5, 54.0, 54.1, and 55.4 respectively, with the August figure ending the narrow fluctuations around 54 since June. The improvement in the diffusion index cannot be directly translated into output growth rate, but the upward shift in points indicates that service sector business activity remains resilient.
Employment signals are inconsistent. According to ADP data, US private sector job additions in August were only 38,000, the weakest increase since January and below expectations. The strengthening of the Services PMI alongside slowing employment means the Federal Reserve continues to face a combination of growth resilience and labor market cooling at a 3.75% policy rate. The policy decision in September may rely more heavily on Friday's nonfarm payrolls and subsequent inflation data. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农The US ISM Services PMI for August rose to 55.4, higher than the expected 54.3 and up 1.3 points from July's 54.1, exceeding expectations by 1.1 points. This index is 5.4 points above the 50-point expansion threshold and marks the highest level since April, indicating that the service sector remains in expansion territory with momentum warming compared to June and July. For the market, this weakens the certainty of a policy shift based solely on cooling employment.
Since April, the ISM Services PMI readings were 53.6, 54.5, 54.0, 54.1, and 55.4 respectively, with the August figure ending the narrow fluctuations around 54 since June. The improvement in the diffusion index cannot be directly translated into output growth rate, but the upward shift in points indicates that service sector business activity remains resilient.
Employment signals are inconsistent. According to ADP data, US private sector job additions in August were only 38,000, the weakest increase since January and below expectations. The strengthening of the Services PMI alongside slowing employment means the Federal Reserve continues to face a combination of growth resilience and labor market cooling at a 3.75% policy rate. The policy decision in September may rely more heavily on Friday's nonfarm payrolls and subsequent inflation data. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农The US August ISM Services PMI rose to 55.4, above the expected 54.3, up 1.3 points from July's 54.1, and 1.1 points above the forecast. This index was 5.4 points above the expansion-contraction line of 50, marking the highest level since April, indicating that services remain in expansion territory and momentum is warming compared to June and July. For the market, this has weakened the certainty of policy shifts solely based on cooling employment.
Since April, the ISM Services PMI has been 53.6, 54.5, 54.0, 54.1, and 55.4, ending the narrow range around 54 since June. The improvement in the diffusion index cannot be translated into output growth, but the level has shifted upward, indicating that service sector business activity remains resilient.
Employment signals are inconsistent. According to ADP data, U.S. private sector employment added only 38,000 in August, the weakest increase since January and below expectations. A strong services PMI and slowing employment mean the Fed continues to face a combination of growth resilience and a cooling labor market at the 3.75% policy rate, making September policy decisions more dependent on Friday's nonfarm payrolls and subsequent inflation data. #FOMC前最后一组数据: This Friday's nonfarm payrollsThe first shovel hit, and instead of unearthing pottery shards, it struck the skeleton of a modern commercial giant. Uber slashed 10% of its own flesh and blood, roughly 3,300 "employee remains" scattered everywhere, with management bones directly cut by 20%. 🏛️ Having been in this industry for years, I can tell at a glance this is not a business crisis, but a voluntary sacrifice during a period of civilization transition.
Looking back at the history of human transportation, from coachmen to taxis, every capacity revolution has been a blood sacrifice. Uber's CEO is currently playing the role more like a priest at the end of a dynasty, trying to exchange the "slimming ritual" of streamlining bureaucracy for a ticket to the "New World" of autonomous driving. What he cuts is not people, but the redundant layers on the old map marked "Here be dragons."
I stare at the words "autonomous future," which resemble an oracle bone fragment just unearthed from the strata—obscure yet revealing a certain inevitable divination. The Robotaxi territory is expanding like the roads of ancient Rome, but Uber wants to be the sole "toll collector" at the checkpoint. This vision is grand, but history repeatedly warns us that road builders often die on the day the road is completed, because detours are laziness encoded in human genes.
From the long-term investor's archaeological perspective, this is a typical "strata squeeze" event. The fossil fuel of profits is drying up, and valuation wants to achieve a beautiful "sequence reset." Merely cutting expenses as a stopgap "strata reinforcement" is far from enough. If the Robotaxi carriage runs too slowly, then the margin saved now is just a few rusty copper coins picked up from the ruins, unable to support the magnificent imagination of a "mobility gateway."
What concerns me more personally is whether this small team merger move resembles historical monarchs attempting centralization? Cutting down vassal states, consolidating elite forces, all to concentrate power for great deeds. But the other side of history is that once a power vacuum appears, ambitious figures rise from the ruins. If Uber cannot always occupy the innermost lane in this marathon, then today's "layoff edict" may one day be engraved on the monument of failure.
The skeleton of this commercial giant is being reshaped, and what seeps from the bone cracks is not blood but capital anxiety. As for whether it can be reborn like an ancient Egyptian pharaoh, relying on a cost-compressing pyramid structure to gain eternal life in the realm of autonomous driving, the answer is only written in the strata of the future. And I am only responsible for recording this moment's tremor as a line of blood-stained inscription.
When the tide of profits recedes, who is swimming naked is clear at a glance. 🚗💨Clear out, clear out, all short positions in hand have been closed.
Friday's non-farm payroll is the last set of data before the FOMC. Bank of America says this is just an "appetizer," the real decision on whether to raise rates in September depends on the CPI on September 11. Walsh has redefined the rules of the game — as long as employment does not deteriorate significantly, inflation is the core variable. #FOMC last set of data: this Friday's non-farm payroll
ADP has weakened for three consecutive months, with only 38,000 added in August, but the probability of a rate hike remains above 60%. Employment is declining, interest rates are not coming down, and the market has mostly priced this in.
Look for higher points to continue buying; the direction needs to change.
$BTC is above 77,000, $ETH is around 2,390. Before the non-farm payroll, it is expected to fluctuate within a range, waiting for the data to land. If the non-farm payroll is significantly weak and the probability of a rate hike drops, $BTC and $ETH will bounce. Even if the non-farm payroll is okay, the CPI is the real main course; the current position has already priced in a lot of negative factors in advance. SOL retraces to the hundred-dollar mark, causing market sentiment to inevitably tighten, but what truly deserves attention might be the technical transformation at the end of the month 🌙. Influenced by the US-Iran tensions and oil prices breaking through $95, US Treasury yields rose to around 4.8%, leading to a rapid withdrawal of funds from high-volatility assets. SOL's single-day drop exceeded 3%, with volatility significantly greater than BTC, indicating the fragility of risk appetite under macro pressure.
However, around the $100 level, I tend to be a bit more calm. On September 28, Solana's Alpenglow upgrade plan will officially activate. This upgrade will restructure the consensus mechanism, significantly improving transaction finality speed, and is regarded as one of the most core technical iterations of the year. Meanwhile, Bitwise's SOL staking ETF product BSOL has surpassed $1 billion in assets under management, showing that long-term capital is quietly positioning.
The short-term direction is still dominated by BTC, but the real catalyst may be at the end of the month. Price pullbacks do not equal the end of the narrative; the dual advancement of technical upgrades and compliant products is the variable worth observing for SOL going forward. Risk warning: macro volatility and the actual effects of the upgrade carry uncertainties; please rationally assess your own risk tolerance. $SOLBTC is back to 76,000, but altcoins are playing a "battle royale"? Have you noticed that this market rally isn't a broad surge, but rather the market quietly picking winners? To start with the phase assessment, I think this is more like a "risk appetite ladder climbing" game—not a broad rally chasing highs, nor a panic-driven shakeout period, but a phase where smart money is selecting targets at its own pace. BTC is firmly holding as the "anchor" around 76,900, ETH is acting as a "transit station" near 2,390. What's really interesting is that money is starting to flow down the risk curve, seeking "elastic assets" that can deliver excess returns. Look at those with standout performance: CP up 147%, T up 48%, EGLD up 11.5%, KITE up 10.5%. Doesn't this look like someone is ticking off a checklist? Not all coins get selected; this is more like a "selective risk appetite" rather than the usual "altcoin season in full bloom." But what deserves more attention is the other side: ACE and ROBO are being mercilessly sold off by capital. This gives us an important hint: the current market is not a flood-like broad rally, but a phase that really tests coin selection skills and timing. My understanding is that capital is looking for targets with better "risk-adjusted returns," not just chasing price gains. Projects with clear narratives, actual ecosystem progress, or unique mechanism designs are more likely to be favored; whereas those thatSEC rewrites rules for the first time in 50 years, officially making blockchain Wall Street's "official ledger"
On September 1, the SEC dropped a bombshell—a 421-page proposal that comprehensively rewrites the transfer agent rules that have been in place since the 1970s.
The core message is simple: blockchain can become the "official record" of securities ownership.
Transfer agents are the backbone of the U.S. securities market, responsible for maintaining shareholder registers, handling stock transfers, and dividends. Previously based on paper and early digital systems, the SEC now officially incorporates blockchain, tokenized securities, and AI into the rules.
The SEC Chair put it plainly: "Let the rules reflect how transfer agents currently operate, including the use of blockchain technology."
Wall Street is accelerating its "integration" of blockchain. ICE, the parent company of the NYSE, is collaborating with tZERO to build tokenized securities infrastructure. Companies like Securitize and tZERO have registered as digital transfer agents. Traditional financial giants are proactively transforming blockchain into new tools rather than being disrupted by it.
The endgame signal is clear: blockchain speeds up processes and automates smart contracts, but ownership and compliance remain in the hands of traditional finance.
RWA and tokenization sectors are long-term beneficiaries, but implementation may only happen after a 60-day public comment period.
My judgment: this move is bigger than imagined. Wall Street hasn’t been disrupted; it has put blockchain in its own suit.
#SEC拟更新转让代理规则，证券上链受关注 #FOMC last set of data before: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday
BTC suddenly pulled back to 79,400, related to two things.
Just checked the market, BTC went straight from around 77,000 during the day to above 79,400. From the news perspective, mainly two things coincided.
The first is geopolitics. The US-Iran conflict escalated again, with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard claiming missile and drone strikes on multiple US military bases. Oil prices hit $95, and the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.8%. Normally, in such a macro environment, risk assets should be under pressure, but funds are buying $BTC as a "digital gold" safe-haven asset.
The second is institutions. Yesterday, spot $BTC ETFs had a net inflow of $217 million, and corporate treasuries like Strategy and Strive are continuously increasing their holdings. Besides geopolitical hedging, institutional allocation demand is also providing buying support. Moreover, BTC has strong chip support around 76,600, and when it briefly dropped there, it was bought back.
The real directional choice will be at 8:30 PM tomorrow with the nonfarm payrolls. Let's first see if it can hold above 79,000. Interest rate hike expectations are like a roller coaster, with the market repeatedly stirred by news. In the past few days, friends in the crypto circle should have clearly felt how ridiculously fast the market sentiment switches. The probability of a rate hike in September has played out like a roller coaster in just a few days. After the Jackson Hole speech, the probability of a rate hike surged directly; the ADP private payroll data came in cold, causing the probability to briefly drop; then the Middle East conflict pushed oil prices higher, and rate hike expectations rose again, pulling back and forth. Overall, the probability rose from 36% to around 66%, then fell back to about 60% after the ADP data, and rebounded again as oil prices strengthened, with no stable certainty. The root cause is two completely contradictory challenges facing the Federal Reserve right now. On one hand, employment data is starting to weaken. ADP added only 38,000 jobs, the lowest since January this year. Cooling employment theoretically means no need for further rate hikes, which is a signal leaning toward easing. But on the other hand, geopolitical conflicts are disrupting the energy market, with oil prices above $90. Rising oil prices mean inflationary pressure will return. Even if employment is weak, with inflation rising, the Fed still has the option to raise rates on the table. So an interesting phenomenon appears: a single economic data point or a geopolitical news item can quickly rewrite the market's bets on rate hikes. When rate hike expectations change, US Treasury yields fluctuate accordingly, and BTC market prices are shaken back and forth. This also explains why despite the ADP data being positive, BTC did not rally decisively. The positive impact from employment was quickly offset by inflation concerns brought by rising oil prices. Now all variables must wait until Friday night’s nonfarm payrolls.Today, Federal Reserve Governor Waller, who oversees corporate capital, stated that we are already seeing signs of inflation cooling, and he will vote to keep interest rates unchanged. As a result, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar fell together, while gold and U.S. stocks rose accordingly.
In my view, this basically preempted the potential positive impact of weaker employment data expected tomorrow.
On the contrary, since the DXY and U.S. Treasury yields have already dropped today, the market's expectations for tomorrow's employment data have been lowered significantly. As long as the data is not worse than expected, it is very likely to be interpreted by the market as "better than feared," which could then drive a rebound in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields.
Therefore, I believe there is a possibility that gold is forming a top head-and-shoulders pattern here. Considering that after the employment data there are still CPI and PPI reports, gold can be shorted from a high point today, but I probably won't do that because the funding cost for gold is ridiculously high.
Market observation
What I see currently is:
Hyperscalers are outperforming, while chip stocks are taking a hit.
We all know that for the index, chips are more important than anything else. So as long as chip stocks continue to fall, no matter how happily other tech sectors rise, the major indices will find it hard to truly strengthen.
I am now watching for a short opportunity on AMD.
AMD is about to break below a trendline. Once the break is confirmed, I believe it will continue downward to fill the next gap, with a target of roughly another -19% decline.US July CPI rose 0.1% month-on-month, in line with expectations
Although the current inflation level remains significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, the monthly inflation data for June and July have been moderate for two consecutive months. This indicates that the inflation surge driven by energy prices in the first half of the year is cooling down; however, prices still fluctuate, and changes in the Middle East situation will continue to bring uncertainty $BTC #Current price $105, don't chase. My judgment:
**The OKB logic is real, but position sizing must be correct.** 21 million tokens locked + contract removing the minting function, this is the toughest deflation model among platform tokens; but it fundamentally differs from BTC—BTC has no issuer or operator, OKB is backed by a single exchange, with regulation, operation, and X Layer ecosystem all tied to OKX alone. Also, if your core holdings already include BNB, buying OKB means double exposure to platform tokens, so be careful not to duplicate your risk exposure.
**If you really want to buy, treat it as a satellite position, not core ammunition:**
- First tier: $95-100, small position ¥500-1000 to test
- Second tier: $80-85, buy more if it dips
- Don't rush on timing, wait for the September 16-17 FOMC and BOJ shocks; when the market dips, OKB will likely follow down, making it more comfortable to buy then than now
- Keep total investment under ¥2000; your main ammunition of 34,000 U should be reserved for BTC ≤ $75,700, ETH ≤ $2,300, SOL ≤ $85—those three are the main course
After the burn last August, it rose from $46 to $258 then fell back to $105. The positive news has been priced in for a year; now is a valuation digestion period. There is no shortage of entry opportunities, but patience is needed. $OKB #FOMC last set of data before: Nonfarm Payrolls this Friday
Tomorrow, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August Nonfarm Payroll report at 8:30 AM Eastern Time on September 4 (Friday), corresponding to 8:30 PM Beijing Time on September 4 (Friday).
U.S. Stocks: Stronger-than-expected data may raise rate hike expectations, suppressing high-valuation tech stocks; another negative growth could trigger recession concerns.
Dollar: Stronger-than-expected data supports the dollar; significantly below 50,000 or turning negative would weaken rate hike bets and pressure the dollar.
Gold: Hot employment data suppresses gold prices (rate hike expectations + stronger dollar), while cold employment data provides room for a rebound.
This Friday's Nonfarm Payroll is the last employment data before the September FOMC (September 15-16), its importance is unquestionable. But unless there is an extreme downside surprise, this report is more likely to affect the marginal pricing of rate hike probabilities rather than directly deciding whether to hike rates in September. The real policy "verdict" will wait for the CPI data on September 11. #黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 $SNDK $SPCX $BTC $BTC’s rebound looks convincing on the surface, but derivatives data paints a more cautious picture. 🧐
After dipping below $77K, Bitcoin has recovered toward $79K. However, open interest fell roughly 3.8% from August 21–31, dropping from 331,100 BTC to 318,600 BTC, while long funding costs continued to rise.
Price is recovering, but leverage is being reduced. This doesn’t look like a rally driven by aggressive new positioning—it’s a more cautious move.
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops **Everyone talks about deflation, but first check if the money printer is still running**
Some ask, isn’t OKB also capped at 21 million? Yes, last August OKX burned 65.26 million tokens in one go, permanently locking the total supply at 21 million. Even more drastic, the contract upgrade removed the minting and burning functions entirely — the project team can’t change it anymore, and it’s verifiable on-chain. Now look at a certain teacher’s TRX, boasting annual burns totaling 7.1 billion tokens, a staggering number, but TRX has no total supply cap at all. The minting valve remains firmly in their hands, burning and printing simultaneously, so deflation is just talk. Remember one criterion: how much is burned doesn’t matter; what matters is whether new tokens can still be minted. Only when the money printer is smashed can it be called deflation; burning while printing is just marketing. $OKB