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# Latest Updates
- Federal Reserve Governor Waller takes a dovish stance; if August CPI is as expected, the tendency is to maintain rates unchanged in September, with rate hike expectations dropping to about 50%. U.S. Treasury yields fall, and U.S. stocks and crypto markets rebound.
- OpenAI releases GPT-6 Astra, reducing single-task costs by 57%, with positive performance feedback, driving Oracle up 5.7%.
- Coinbase applies to the SEC to launch stock Perps in the U.S., allowing American investors to trade stocks with leverage around the clock.
- After Waller's dovish stance, the crypto market quickly rebounds: Circle and Hood rise 16%, Coinbase up 10%, BTC climbs to $81,300.
- U.S.-Iran outlook remains unclear; Vance downplays conflict scale, but Trump considers formally declaring war on Iran. Brent crude holds at $95.
# Trading Analysis
- Maintain previous conclusion: tactical rebound driven by repricing of rate hike expectations and AI sentiment recovery.
- Waller sets the stage for no rate hike in September; if August CPI is stable, no hike in November election month, with the next window delayed to December. ISM services prices rose 2.3 percentage points month-over-month, with oil price inflation transmitting to the service sector. Brent crude holds at $95, U.S. Treasury yields are easier to rise than fall.
- GPT-6 Astra reduces single-task costs by 57%, temporarily easing ROI validation concerns. The core conflict shifts from hardware shortages to ROI validation, with a divergence period expected to be volatile.From the daily level, BTC took out the 82000 liquidity and continued downward, realizing a false breakout of the previous high at 81500 and then falling back. On the hourly level, if it subsequently reaches 79500 and provides support, it can continue to go long; if not, BTC will still come down to 75000 to take out the long liquidity.✅ Midnight positioning secured profits, range forecast perfectly fulfilled 📈
All support points given at midnight were reached
Long position layout near BTC 79672, smoothly took profit and exited at 80760
Entered near ETH 2457, fully closed positions above 2500
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
#比特币再破80000美元 Scumbag Observation Episode 1 Update, 26.9.04 (UTC+8) 11:30
Chart 1 SNDK Daily K-Line
SanDisk closing price 1554.99, intraday high 1576.80, low 1511, up 0.10%
SanDisk is currently fluctuating in the 1450~1580 range, so our strategy is to wait for a breakout direction.
Chart 2 ETH Daily K-Line
Ethereum has once again risen above the upper boundary of the box with a big bullish candle, so our next target is around the annual line at 2600.When I first entered the market, I thought there was gold everywhere, just bending down to pick it up, but I ended up with a handful of dirt.
Later I understood, this industry isn’t about who makes the most money, but who survives the longest and stays steady.
My first investment was in $BTC; after buying, it dropped, and I cursed every day. Then I just stopped looking. A couple of years later, it had actually doubled.
Since then, I changed my approach, putting a little spare money in every month, just as a surprise gift for my future self.
In between, I got itchy and switched to $ETH, but after a few tries, I found the fees were more than the profits, so I honestly switched back.
Now I only hold onto this one $SOL, avoiding all other hot spots because I can’t hold onto them anyway.
The deepest lesson is not to borrow money to play, and don’t listen to others bragging; the numbers in your account only fool yourself.
If you make money, take it out and treat yourself to something nice; if you lose, just close the app and play games—the sun still rises the next day.
Over time, you’ll notice those who watch the market every day have less hair and no fatter wallets.
I now check prices once a week, don’t smile when it rises, don’t jump when it falls, my mindset is as steady as a rock.
Anyway, this thing is a marathon; running slow doesn’t matter, just don’t collapse halfway.
Life goes on, the coins stay put, people stay busy, just let it be.
#比特币再破80000美元
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
#原油供应扰动反复，油价高位波动 $SOL family, I really give up 🙄, SOL's trend is like squeezing toothpaste—neither the rise nor the fall is satisfying.
This morning it jumped from 99.72 to 105.93, I thought it was going to take off today, but after hitting 105.93 it immediately reversed, slowly dropping back to 103.82, down 1.28% in 24 hours 😅. I’m familiar with this move—classic pump and dump with sideways grinding, giving no room for bulls or bears.
Now it’s stuck in this lousy 103-105 range, with resistance at 104.62 above and support at 103.02 below, like a sandwich cookie 🍪. The MACD has turned green, the bulls’ strength is almost gone, but it’s not dropping deeply because there are buyers below, so it’s just dragging on.
Honestly, this kind of market is the worst 😮💨:
- For those holding long positions, watching profits shrink bit by bit, reluctant to sell but anxious to hold;
- For those holding shorts, frustrated that it won’t drop, afraid to close and see a drop, afraid to hold and see a pump;
- For those with no position, even more conflicted—enter and risk a fakeout, don’t enter and risk missing a breakout.
I think I get it now, SOL is holding back a big move—either it will burst out with a big bullish candle and fly up, or it can’t hold and will crash down. Until the direction is clear, I choose to lie low and watch 🛋️, no more messing around, the fees from all the trading are already a big loss.
To all the comrades still fighting inside, remember to set your stop losses, don’t fight the market, staying alive is the most important 💪.$RE The real value to watch is not the short-term price fluctuations, but that it brings traditional financial assets like reinsurance onto the blockchain! Its returns come from real insurance business, not entirely dependent on token subsidies, which gives RE RWA attributes. However, the expansion speed of reinsurance won't be as fast as DeFi, and it will face unlocking pressure later, so the core depends on whether the underwriting scale and asset management growth can outpace token release.
$BTC The biggest variable for Bitcoin now has become macro liquidity. In August, spot ETF net inflows were about $3.5 billion; after outflows at the beginning of September, it quickly turned positive again, indicating institutional allocation demand hasn't disappeared. Waller's dovish stance has cooled rate hike expectations, and the decline in the dollar and yields has directly given risk assets some breathing room. As long as employment and inflation continue to cool down, ETF funds and liquidity improvements have a chance to resonate.
$ETH Ethereum's logic has an additional layer of supply changes compared to BTC. Previously, ETFs had inflows for 12 consecutive trading days, while staking, ETFs, and corporate treasuries are all locking up ETH, continuously squeezing tradable market supply. But ETH can't rely on institutional buying forever; what truly determines mid-term strength is on-chain activity, stablecoins, RWA, and whether L2 can continuously create demand. If capital inflows recover and the on-chain economy grows synchronously, it will have the foundation to independently outperform BTC.
#比特币再破80000美元
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 Tonight we open the box on non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate, explaining why inflation is currently more important than interest rates.
The core focus of the Federal Reserve, represented by Waller, is to control inflation around 2%, and the current CPI is 3.7%. This gap may not seem large, but due to the power of compounding, a 2% CPI leads to a 21.9% price increase over 10 years, while a 3.7% baseline results in a 43.9% price increase over 10 years. The difference is nearly double.
Therefore, interest rates are the tool, inflation is the target, and employment is the constraint.
The Fed does not care about the absolute number of the interest rate itself. What it cares about is whether inflation can return to 2% and whether employment can remain stable. Interest rates are just the lever it uses to influence these two goals.
To put it simply: you take fever medicine not because the medicine itself is good or bad, but because you want to bring your body temperature down to 37 degrees Celsius. Interest rates are that fever medicine—the 3.63% federal funds rate is not the goal; the goal is to reduce 3.7% inflation down to 2%.
So when you see the market discussing "Will the Fed raise rates in September?", essentially it is discussing whether the "body temperature" of 3.7% inflation is high enough to require another "dose" of medicine. Employment data tells the doctor whether the patient's body can tolerate another dose.
Simply put: inflation is the illness, interest rates are the medicine, and employment is the patient's physical condition. If 3.7% inflation persists too long, it becomes a chronic illness—medicine efficacy diminishes, side effects accumulate. This is why the Fed is determined to push it back to 2%#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 **The secret behind Buffett's 26% annual return lies in his top three holdings**
The Oracle of Omaha's latest holdings: Apple 22%, American Express 17%, Coca-Cola 11%, with the top three accounting for half of the portfolio. 29 stocks earned 26% in one year, totaling $299.2 billion. Many people try to learn from Buffett every day but get it wrong—he doesn't rely on picking many stocks or frequent trading; he puts money into the best few assets and holds on. Retail investors switch 50 coins a year, chase 80 hot trends, pay a lot in fees, and end up with a scattered portfolio. Buffett says Bitcoin is rat poison, which is his circle of competence, no blame on him; but his method works the same in crypto: BTC, ETH, SOL are your Apple, Coca-Cola, American Express—heavy core positions, hold tight, and mess around with the small positions. A Ferrari is still a Ferrari when it ages, a core asset remains a core asset when it dips, and junk coins remain junk even if they rise. @辰宿列张001 BTC was around $80,977 this morning, up about 5.2% in the past day, with an intraday high close to $81,993.
This time is different from the previous hard cap at 80K.
Previously:
Yield↑ + USD↑ + BTC barely holding
Last night it changed to:
Fed rate hike expectations↓ + 10Y↓ + DXY↓ + BTC↑
This indicates that at least in the short term, BTC has regained macro tailwinds.
But I still wouldn’t directly define 80K as confirmed support.
What really needs to be watched is:
Whether BTC can stay continuously above 80K, rather than relying on a one-night rebound.
Reuters’ technical analysis also points out that the real strong resistance BTC needs to break recently is still around $82,793; if this area is effectively broken, it will be easier to open up space extending toward 90K.Panface verification morning idea, 4480-4500 rebound short, encountered resistance at 4487 and declined, landed at 4466, took down twenty typical break force leap.
Geopolitical rebound has limited momentum, no hammering, pressure level shorting is the main line. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 $BTC USDC net decrease of 44.21 million in three hours, at least 20 million clearly cross-chain burn
08:00—11:00, Ethereum USDC contract minted 79.1838 million tokens, burned 123.395 million tokens, net supply decreased by 44.2115 million tokens on-chain, total 710 transactions. Blocks 25900227—25901119.
The largest single burn was 50 million tokens at 08:09; minting of 34.399 million tokens at 09:23. Two burn transactions of about 10 million tokens each used the depositForBurn method, confirmed as cross-chain burns, and cannot be directly described as redemptions or fund withdrawals.
To determine fund outflows, verification of minting on the target chain, receiving addresses, and Circle's explanations is required. The zero address event only proves changes in Ethereum contract supply.
What additional on-chain evidence do you think is needed to define this 44.21 million as fund withdrawal?
Source: Circle official contract directory, Ethereum Blockscout; as of 11:00 (UTC+8). This does not constitute investment advice.
#USDC #OnChainDataIf BTC's return above $80,000 was just a bluff, then what exactly is this rebound trading? 🫧 When I saw BTC climb back above 80K and ETH slowly approaching 2.5K, my first reaction wasn't excitement, but a bit of caution. Sentiment is indeed warming, but what really caught my attention wasn't the price itself, but the subtle changes in the derivatives structure. First, here are the signals I've observed: the funding rates for perpetual contracts on the order book haven't shown extreme frenzy; instead, they're staying moderately positive. What does this mean? It means this rally isn't a bit of a hype built on leverage, but more like spot buying slowly supporting the bottom. In the options market, the implied volatility of put options is starting to fall, but tail demand for call options isn't particularly exaggerated. The market is recovering, but not overconfident. Actually, the most noteworthy thing at this level is whether capital preference has truly spread. BTC and ETH, as core assets, have relatively solid performance, which is fine. But the real recovery in risk appetite should mean sustained profit-making effects in mid-cap coins and altcoin sectors, rather than relying solely on pulse rallies from individual coins. Currently, growth assets like ZEC, SOL, XRP are showing some movement, but they seem more like beta recovery following the broader market rather than independent alpha rallies. High-risk assets like KAITO and BEAT have seen large volatility but have not formed sector resonance. From the perspective of derivatives structure, this rebound currently feels more like a short covering combined with moderate spot buying#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
CIPS surprisingly lifted the Big Four banks, which is somewhat unexpected in this trend.
The activity of the RMB Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) has increased. The Big Four banks, as core direct participants, directly undertake cross-border clearing business and gain incremental fees. This thematic sentiment has driven the banking sector to strengthen. However, this is more driven by thematic sentiment rather than a fundamental change, so its sustainability remains questionable.
#比特币再破80000美元
On the other hand, the overseas crypto market is booming, with $BTC retaking the $80,000 level. US crypto-related stocks show strong resilience. $xSTRC surged over 17%, Circle rose more than 16%, and Coinbase increased by over 10%. Overseas risk appetite is broadly recovering, but the internal and external logics cannot be simply equated.
It is important to distinguish that CIPS is a compliant cross-border RMB infrastructure, fundamentally different from crypto assets like Bitcoin, even though both are strengthening at the same time. #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 $ZEC family🤣 Who would have thought that the first half of the night was a wild celebration, and the second half suddenly turned into a tormenting grind!
ZEC violently surged from 813 straight up to 979.76 in a flash, the big bullish candle got everyone pumped, the whole screen felt like wealth was waving at me🚀!
We thought it would break through 1000 and keep soaring, but at the high point it was doused with a cold splash💦, bulls instantly lost steam, no longer pushing upward, just bouncing back and forth between 940‑970.
24-hour slight drop of -0.83%, current price 947.79, after the big rise it entered a high-level digestion phase, bulls and bears locked in a tough battle.
Right now, there are three types of people in the community, and their states are just too real👇
✅ Those holding long positions from low levels: sitting on big floating profits, agonizing daily over whether to sell or not, afraid of missing out but also afraid of giving back all profits, can’t even sleep well;
😵 Those chasing at high levels: can’t push higher, can’t fall deeply, stuck in a limbo with their positions, mentally tortured repeatedly;
👀 The sidelines watchers: watching the surge but afraid to act, scared of becoming the bag holder if they jump in, so they just sit back and watch the show.
The post-surge high-level consolidation hides many traps❗
Selling pressure could erupt anytime after the spike, don’t get overheated chasing highs, floating profits are not realized gains.
📌 One-hour chart entertainment reference points (for review only, not trading advice)
🔝 Upper resistance: 969.74
Only if volume supports a stable break here is there a chance to retest the 979.76 high and sprint toward the 1000 mark; repeated failure to break will keep the market grinding.
🛡️ Key support below: 918.44
This is the lifeline of this rally; holding here keeps the bullish structure intact; if broken decisively, profit-taking will trigger a significant pullback.
Technically📈, MACD has slightly turned green, short-term bullish momentum is weakening, price still holds in the upper half of the Bollinger Bands, overall trend is bullish, but the hourly chart is at a crossroads, it depends on whether support can withstand selling pressure.
💡 Honest reminder:
Volatility after a surge can be extremely wild, make sure to set take-profit and stop-loss properly, don’t hold heavy positions stubbornly, the crypto roller coaster can crash if you don’t ride it well!$CORE's repeated delays indicate poor technology; otherwise, after all the bragging, why hasn't a single promise been fulfilled? The ecosystem is running away, the technology is nonexistent, and after all these years of empty talk about technology, which one has actually been realized? It looks technologically strong on the surface, but in reality, it's worse than a local dog.BTC returns to $80,000, new variables emerge in September market
BTC today retook $80,000, once approaching $81,400, with market sentiment clearly warming.
The core variable of this rebound is the Federal Reserve expectations. Waller's latest speech leaned dovish, and the market's expectation for a September rate hike dropped from about 63% to 50%, easing pressure on the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, thus supporting risk assets.
But it is still too early to judge a new bull market.
Short-term key points:
$82,800: breaking through may open up greater space
$80,000: current key level between bulls and bears
$75,700: important pullback support
If BTC breaks through $82.8K with volume, market sentiment may strengthen further; conversely, if it falls back below $80K, beware of a pullback after a rally.
Next, focus on U.S. employment data and September Federal Reserve policy expectations.
$BTC $ETH $BNB
#BTC #ETH #Crypto #OKXFirst layer: This is not really about the crypto space. The trigger was Federal Reserve Governor Waller's statement that he might support keeping interest rates unchanged. Before this statement, the market priced in a 50-70% chance of a rate hike in September. Note, it was a hike, not a cut. Everyone was already prepared to take a hit, but suddenly it was said that the hike might not happen. This is the expectation gap—not how good the news is, but how big the gap is compared to the original expectation. Second layer: This reduces negative factors, not increases positive ones. Real positive news would be new money coming in, ETF inflows, institutional accumulation, or legislation passing. Reducing negative factors means those who were ready to exit no longer do, forcing short positions to close. This money was already in the market, just changing direction. A move from 77,100 to 82,100, a 5,000-point rise, largely pushed up by short covering. The problem with short-covering rallies is that once they're done, they're over. Shorts are limited; once covered, there’s no next batch. Third layer: The foundation of this positive news is fragile. Waller is one governor, not the entire committee. His stance doesn’t mean the meeting is decided. The fundamentals remain unchanged: oil is still $98, the 10-year Treasury yield is still 4.75%, inflation pressure persists. Waller’s statement didn’t change any fundamentals. Fourth layer: I have become more bullish on the direction. The market has indeed moved up, but this is an event-driven rally, not a trend. Event-driven moves come fast and go fast. The real payoff day is the September FOMC meeting. Until then, longs can be held, but don’t use leverage or treat it as a long-term position. Exit before the meeting day; don’t hold positions to gamble on the meeting outcome $BTC 日本财库公司Remixpoint持有1506枚BTC浮盈约1860万美元，已清仓ETH、SOL等仅保留比特币 日本比特币财库公司Remixpoint公告，截至9月4日共持有约1506.23枚BTC，成本均价约6.8万美元，账面成本约161.05亿日元（约1.03亿美元），时价约190.06亿日元（约1.22亿美元），评估收益约29.01亿日元（约1860万美元）。该公司此前已出售ETH、SOL、XRP、DOGE，目前财库仅保留比特币。 Remixpoint是一家将比特币纳入公司储备资产的日本上市公司，此次公告属于其财库持仓的例行披露。从数据看，其持仓成本均价约6.8万美元，当前浮盈约1860万美元，收益率约18%，说明其建仓位置相对合理，且在BTC近期价格上行中获得了可观的账面收益。更值得关注的是其资产配置动作：该公司此前已先后出售ETH、SOL、XRP、DOGE，将财库完全集中于比特币单一资产。这一单一化配置反映出部分日本上市公司在储备资产选择上的明确倾向——放弃多元化山寨币组合，只保留流动性最深、共识最强的比特币。近年来日本已出现多家采用比特币财库策略的上市公司，Remixpoin$BTC $ETH $SOL
Jiang Zhuoer: Sold all Bitcoin positions at $82,050, next focus on $70,000 to $72,000
On September 4, Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the Leibit mining pool (B.TOP), shared his recent trading operations, stating that he sold 100% of his BTC position when Bitcoin was around $82,050. Jiang Zhuoer said that the shift from previously "not shorting ETH" to shorting BTC was mainly because ETH's price movement was more volatile; meanwhile, after BTC ETF funds showed weakness and experienced outflows for the first time, BTC instead rose to near the upper boundary of the $81,500 box, creating a good selling opportunity. Additionally, he believes that this round of BTC consolidation lasted only about 13 days, which is insufficient time to break through the important resistance between $83,000 and $84,000, and the short-term upward wick pattern after breaking $82,000 is a good trading signal. Regarding the subsequent trend, Jiang Zhuoer’s scenario is: BTC will first fall back to the $70,000 to $72,000 range, regarded as the "last chance to get in"; then it may oscillate between $76,000 and $82,000 while looking for profit-taking points; if the price further rises to $83,000 to $84,000, then $82,300 will be used as a stop-loss reference.Bitcoin climbed back above $80,000. In 24 hours, it rose over 5%, and Ethereum followed with a 4.8% increase. Short positions were liquidated by $415 million, and 119,000 traders were liquidated. The market gave a consistent explanation: Waller was dovish, the probability of rate hikes plummeted, and risk assets rebounded. But if you look at the CME FedWatch curve for one more second, you'll notice a strange fact that has been overlooked: the probability of a rate hike dropped from 63.2% to 50.4%. Pay attention to this number. 50.4%。 This is not a "dovish turn." It is a tear down to the decimal place. Half people believe there will be a rate hike, and half believe it won't. The market has not reached a consensus; it has simply shifted from "hawkish hesitation" to "perfect split." And Bitcoin has risen 5% right in this split. Replace the subject with "that 12.8 percentage point crack." If the subject is "Waller," the story is a "dovish signal." If the subject is "Bitcoin," the story is "risk asset rebound." But if the subject is a 12.8 percentage point crack between 63.2% and 50.4% in rate hike probability, the whole narrative changes. This crack is not "shrinking"; it is turning into an abyss. At 63.2%, the market has at least one judgment: a rate hike is more likely. Traders can build positions around this judgment, with at least one tilted direction for long or bearish. But when the number drops to 50.4%, the market loses direction. This is not "more dovish," this is "unknown." And Bitcoin, on the other hand, happens to be in a state of "not knowing."Printing money to buy itself? That's ruthless!! I'm on the opposite side, hitting my thigh! 😭
$HYPE rose another 6.6% today to touch 88, right next to ZEC which is trending first, and it hasn't fallen behind.
The buyback engine is really running. After AQAv2 went live, 90% of the protocol's USDC reserves' earnings go directly into the Assistance Fund to buy + burn HYPE; plus 99% of trading fees also follow this path, cumulatively burning $1.3 billion and 46.89 million tokens. Hyperliquid and Pump.fun have covered 90% of the buybacks for the entire year of 2026, so this buying pressure doesn't rely on trading volume.
Good news is lining up. Hashdex's NCIQ ETF included HYPE (3.36% weighting), Hyperliquid Strategies expanded its equity financing quota from 1 billion to 2.5 billion, and a giant whale swept $11.8 million in 24 hours. US market entry is also in talks, leveraging Kraken's parent company Payward to run Bitnomial's CFTC-compliant perpetual contracts.
But September 6 is a hurdle. 9.92 million HYPE tokens (about $800 million, 2.37% of circulation) unlock after that day, and HyperLabs just unstaked 433,000 tokens also locked on the same day. Historically, HYPE's reaction to unlocks has been mild, but this time the volume is large enough.
RSI at 82.8 is overbought, resistance at 86.55; breaking it targets 90-95, failing to hold 80 means a pullback. Expect a surge before unlock, and the unlock day will be decisive based on the claim rate.What exactly can the new CORE v1.0.26 node version bring?
The hard fork has completed a full network upgrade, and the v1.0.26 node version is now online. Many only know about the burning of 150 million tokens but are unaware of all the changes brought by the new node version.
✅1. Fix of a critical reward minting vulnerability (the core issue)
The old node version had a logic flaw allowing malicious validator nodes to obtain excessive block rewards, causing token oversupply.
The new version completely blocks this vulnerability code, preventing excessive minting at the node's core level.
This is not a fix for wallet theft vulnerabilities but a fix for the protocol's inflation reward logic to prevent unlimited minting of CORE that would dilute all holders' assets.
✅2. Permanent burning of 150 million excess tokens, rewriting token supply
Under the new node rules, the already generated 150 million excess CORE tokens are permanently burned and removed from the total token supply.
- There will be no clawback of tokens already held by malicious nodes, and no on-chain transactions will be rolled back.
- Ordinary users’ staking, transfers, and DApp interaction histories are fully preserved; user assets remain unchanged.
From the node rule perspective, this eliminates the token dilution crisis caused by this incident.
✅3. Staking & BTC hash dual staking functions will restart soon
The official announcement states staking rewards will resume within 48 hours, effective only after all nodes upgrade to v1.0.26.
- CORE staking rewards will be produced again
- The BTC hash power staking module will resume operation, restoring BTC hash power participation in network security.
Nodes that do not upgrade will be disconnected from the mainnet and unable to produce blocks or earn rewards.
✅4. A lesson for public chain governance, constraining validator nodes
The new node version enhances validation of validator node behavior; abnormal excessive reward transactions will be directly intercepted by the protocol.
This constrains malicious nodes: attempts to exploit reward logic loopholes for profit will be blocked at the node level, no longer waiting for a hard fork fix after the fact.
⚠️ What the new node version cannot do (don’t expect these)
1. ❌ It will not directly raise the coin price. The node only fixes protocol code and does not create buy pressure out of thin air; market trends are still determined by capital, chip distribution, and macro factors.
2. ❌ It cannot erase the trust damage caused by this bug incident. The vulnerability is fixed, but developers’ and institutions’ trust in the project requires long-term operation and a complete incident report to gradually restore.
3. ❌ It cannot prevent users from unstaking and selling. After the fix, users can still freely unstake and sell on exchanges; selling pressure risk objectively remains.
4. ❌ It does not guarantee no new bugs will appear in the future. It only fixes this vulnerability; complex public chain code still carries unknown risks ahead.
📌 What this means for ordinary participants
1. Staking users: wait for all nodes to fully sync, staking rewards to resume, and continue mining profits; be sure your staking frontend connects to the new mainnet version.
2. Traders: node fix only “defuses a bomb,” it does not mean a bull market has started. The real test is when exchanges open deposits and withdrawals at 5 PM, revealing true chip competition.
3. Ecosystem developers: with stable underlying reward logic, DApps and contracts can continue safe deployment without worrying about black swan events of token oversupply.BTC is back above 80,000.
The market has actually been quite interesting these past couple of days. It was hovering around 77,000 earlier, then as soon as Waller spoke, risk assets immediately reacted.
But right now, I'm more interested in today's non-farm payrolls.
If the employment data shows a clear weakening, the market might continue to price in rate cuts or no hikes, which would definitely be a boost for BTC.
However, if the data is strong, then it's hard to say, especially since BTC is already near 80,000, which isn't a low level.
There's another detail I find worth watching:
BTC ETFs saw inflows again yesterday, but ETH ETFs' continuous net inflows have stopped.
So it doesn't look like "all funds rushing in together" anymore; it seems more like funds are starting to pick directions.
If BTC can truly turn 80,000 into support going forward, I'd be more optimistic.
If it rallies and then falls back again, then it looks like continued consolidation.
Watching the non-farm tonight feels way more interesting than guessing candlesticks 😂
What do you think? After the non-farm comes out, will BTC rally first or drop first?
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
#比特币再破80000美元
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 Waller speaks out: August inflation will decide whether to raise interest rates in September! The real test for BTC has arrived.
The core contradiction in the market is becoming increasingly clear:
Employment is cooling down, but inflation has not been fully resolved.
Waller's latest statement sends a very clear signal:
If August inflation continues to decline, he tends to support keeping interest rates unchanged in September; but if inflation heats up again, rate hikes remain an option.
What does this mean?
The September FOMC is no longer about who sounds more hawkish, but about which side the data ultimately supports.
This news is especially important for BTC.
Because the market may soon trade around a very clear transmission chain:
August CPI → September rate hike expectations → US Treasury yields → US dollar index → global risk appetite → BTC
If CPI continues to cool down:
CPI↓ → rate hike probability↓ → US Treasury yields↓ → USD↓ → liquidity expectations improve → BTC↑
This is the most comfortable macro environment for BTC.
But if CPI rises again:
CPI↑ → rate hike probability↑ → US Treasury yields↑ → USD↑ → risk appetite declines → BTC under pressure
And now there is a new variable—oil prices.
Recent Middle East tensions have caused crude oil prices to rise significantly. If high oil prices further transmit to transportation, energy, and commodity prices, the market's biggest concern will emerge:
Energy inflation resurges.
This is not good news for the Federal Reserve.
Because US employment is already showing signs of cooling, but if inflation rebounds, the Fed will be in a very awkward position:
Cutting rates risks inflation, maintaining high rates risks further employment deterioration.
So in the next two weeks, the market is likely to see very obvious data battles.
First hurdle: this Friday's nonfarm payrolls.
If nonfarm payrolls weaken significantly, unemployment rises, and wage growth slows, rate hike expectations will cool first.
BTC may react first.
Second hurdle: August CPI.
This is the key data that truly determines the direction of the September FOMC.
If CPI continues to cool, Waller's statement today will be further interpreted by the market as a dovish signal.
If CPI rises beyond expectations, Wash's previous hawkish logic may regain the upper hand.
Then the market will not be trading "whether to raise rates in September," but rather:
"Does the Fed need to raise rates again?"
These two expectations have completely different impacts on BTC.
So what BTC needs to watch most now is not just a technical breakout.
But whether macro liquidity has truly started to shift.
If the following occurs:
Weak nonfarm + cooling CPI + falling US Treasury yields + weakening USD + continued inflows into BTC ETFs
Then the high-level consolidation is very likely to gradually evolve into new upward momentum.
But if the following occurs:
Strong nonfarm + CPI rebound + rising US Treasury yields + strengthening USD
Then even if BTC surges short-term, caution is needed for a pullback or even retesting lower support.
So don't rush to judge bull or bear now.
What the market is really waiting for are these two cards: nonfarm and CPI.
Waller has made it very clear:
Whether to raise rates in September depends on data, not stories.
In short: nonfarm determines the first wave of expectations, CPI determines the final direction; and BTC's biggest trading mainline going forward is the "inflation → rate hikes → US Treasuries → USD → liquidity" chain. $BTC #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 Just now, $BTC has broken through $82,000 at its highest. If we only look at $BTC, today is a very beautiful breakout candlestick. But what really excites me is that this rise has started to spread to the altcoin market. $ETH has returned above $2,400, $BNB has risen to around $700, $XRP has directly surged above $1.4, and $SOL has climbed back above $100. This is just the first layer. Looking further down, capital has clearly begun to seek assets with higher Beta. $ZEC's increase today is very exaggerated, and it has become one of the strongest assets in the market again; $ENA has also shown a significant rally; $ARB is starting to catch up, and $ADA is also showing strong performance. This is what I have been waiting for: not just $BTC rising, but after $BTC rises, capital starts to feel that $BTC's rise is not fast enough. If this logic continues to spread, I will focus on a few groups next. The first group: $ETH, $SOL, $BNB, $XRP. This is the "thermometer" of the altcoin market. If $ETH can hold above $2,500, it is very significant; $SOL climbing back above $105 indicates that risk appetite continues to increase; if $BNB breaks through $720, there is a chance to open up more space; if $XRP holds above $1.45, short-term strength may continue further. The second group: $AAVE, $UNI, $CRV, $PENDLE, $ENA. This group is DeFi. If $ETH continues to rise, I insteadSeptember BTC Historical Performance
September has not had a good reputation in Bitcoin's history. In the 13 Septembers since 2013, 8 ended down, with an average decline of 3.08% and a median of -3.12%, making it one of the worst-performing months of the year. From 2017 to 2022, September closed negative for six consecutive years.
However, this pattern has failed in the last three years, with gains of 3.91% in 2023, 7.29% in 2024, and 5.16% in 2025.
This year, Bitcoin rose 24.95% in August, marking the largest single-month gain in 2026, with the price surging from the $60,000 range to above $80,000 at one point. Previously, it had fallen 22.2% in Q1 and 14.09% in Q2. As of early September, Bitcoin has been fluctuating between $75,000 and $78,000, still quite far from the all-time high of $126,000, with a market dominance of 59.16% and a total crypto market cap of $2.675 trillion. In the last week of August, crypto funds saw a net inflow of $3.2 billion, the largest weekly amount since October 2025.
At least from a capital flow perspective, the start of September is worth looking forward to. $BNB bulls are starting to weaken after the surge
BNB's short-term rebound has been strong, but the upward momentum is already fading.
Large cycle funds have not returned; this wave can only be considered a rebound.
Currently, on the eve of the non-farm payrolls, the market is very volatile, not suitable for aggressive chasing of gains.
Key levels to watch:
Upper resistance around 730.
Key support at 700, followed by 690.
Price must hold above resistance to have room to continue upward; if support breaks, the rebound structure will be destroyed.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 ⚠️ BTC short-term clearly "switching from short to long"
BTC quickly surged from about $77,000 on September 3 to a high of around $82,000, reclaiming the key resistance at $80,000. The short-term trend shifted from a rebound to a breakout structure.
Core reversal: Waller stated that if inflation cools down, the rate is likely to be maintained in September, with the probability of a rate hike dropping from about 63% to about 50%;
Regarding ETFs, on September 2, spot BTC ETF net inflow was +$101.1 million (IBIT +$115.4 million), a significant reversal from the large outflow the previous day.
Derivatives show massive short covering, with total market short liquidations exceeding about $443 million (BTC about $205 million).
Short-term bias is 8/10 bullish, stop shorting the rebound.
Trading plan:
• Go long on a pullback between $79,500–80,200 without breaking below, stop loss at $78,700, targets at $82,800 → $85,000 → $86,500.
• Secondary option: 1-hour candle close breakout above $82,800 + moderate increase in OI + Funding not extremely positive, go long on breakout, same targets as above.
Maximum risk: Today's non-farm payrolls. If data significantly exceeds expectations, pushing up rate hike expectations and 10Y yield back above 4.8%, this rally may quickly give back gains.
Invalidation line: $78,700. If it breaks below and OI increases, consider it a false breakout and cancel all long plans.
Current execution: No shorting, no chasing $81K; wait for pullback to confirm breakout.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 Supplement: This address added 323,125 UNI again 8 minutes ago, worth 2.08 million USD
Today, a total of 1 million $UNI has been accumulated, with a total value of 6.355 million USD, at an average price of about $6.35
Wallet address 0xc8686f611D59DeEe9c549bc844E4AD314e0F4972ETH这一夜涨得有点猛，24小时拉了5.01%，直接回到2505美元附近。BTC也重新站上8万，报80917美元，SOL、DOGE、ADA、XRP这些主流币全线走强，市场情绪明显回暖。 但先别急着高兴，这轮上涨的「发动机」是空头回补，不是增量资金追多。过去24小时全网爆仓约20.1亿美元，其中空头爆仓17亿美元，占比超过八成——说白了，这波拉升很大程度是被打爆的空头「抬」上去的。资金面上，BTC录得34.2亿美元净流入，ETH净流入9.9亿美元，确实有资金回流主流资产；但恐慌贪婪指数已经从65冲到74，一天之内进入贪婪区间，短线追涨情绪也在快速累积。 盘面上，ETH从2355附近一路反弹到2505，反弹幅度约6.3%，4小时MACD保持金叉，15分钟、1小时级别也都在修复，短线结构确实转强了。但注意，上方就是2534和2566两道压力——2534是这波回落的起跌点，2566是前高，这两个位置不突破，就只能算超跌反弹，不能算反转。下方反过来盯2400和2355，跌回去说明这波反弹只是插针。 更关键的是，今晚真正的考验才来。20:30美国公布8月非农就业数据，这份数据直接决定美联储下一步怎ETH Market Review: Officials' Statements and Subsequent Market and Capital Changes
⚠️This article is for market information purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency investment carries high risk; please make decisions cautiously.
1. Macro Expectation Reversal: Hawkish Officials Soften Stance, Market Reprices Interest Rate Path
Federal Reserve's Waller's public speech on September 3 marked a key short-term market turning point:
1. He clearly stated that if subsequent inflation data continues to decline, he tends to keep the current interest rate unchanged at the September meeting; this statement directly reduced the market's September rate hike probability from the previous 63% to 48.4%, releasing the previously fully priced-in rate hike risk.
2. As an official previously holding a relatively hawkish stance, this statement was interpreted by the market as a further convergence of the Fed's current rate hike cycle. U.S. Treasury yields surged then fell back, the dollar index weakened, and risk assets collectively began to recover, with U.S. growth stocks and precious metals strengthening simultaneously.
3. Transmission to the crypto market: liquidity pressure marginally eases. ETH, as a high-beta risk asset, is significantly more sensitive to Fed policy changes than BTC; when interest rate expectations change, ETH's volatility tends to be greater.
2. Current Market and Capital Status
After the news, the market quickly reacted, with ETH starting a rebound from previous lows, but this is only an expectation recovery; fundamentals have not materially changed. On-chain and derivatives capital show: short-term shorts concentratedly covered, funding rates rapidly rising from negative; however, incremental capital entering the spot market is limited, mostly internal leveraged funds speculating on expectations, with no large-scale sustained net inflows. BTC followed the rebound but with weaker gains than ETH, indicating capital rotation within the market towards ETH.
3. Key Points for Future Observation
The current market is only trading on expectation recovery from officials' statements; everything still awaits verification from non-farm payroll and inflation data.
If subsequent employment and inflation data continue to cool, rate hike expectations will further fade, and ETH's rebound potential will expand; if data again shows strength, the officials' softened stance will be disproved, and the market will face renewed pressure and correction.
At this stage, do not treat the statements directly as a trend reversal signal; expectations can change rapidly, data is the ultimate benchmark, and leveraged positions must be risk-controlled.
$ETH #比特币再破80000美元 BTC vs ETH: BULL MARKET SHOWDOWN 🔥
**Current Price Check - 7:29 AM**
**$BTC $80,671 (-0.68%)** 🟠
No.1 | Digital Gold | 30D: +24.82%
**$ETH $2,497 (-0.34%)** 🔵
No.2 | Infrastructure | 30D: +30.90%
### **Here's the story:**
BTC is the leader. When it moves, the entire market follows.
ETH is the engine. DeFi, L2s, NFTs all run on it.
**90 Day Performance Tells It All:**
ETH: **+59.22%** vs BTC: **+32.57%.
#DailyOrbit The crypto market entered September 4th with a completely different picture compared to the previous correction session. $BTC has returned above the 80,000 USD mark, while $ETH is approaching 2,500 USD, $XRP surpasses 1.45 USD, and $SOL remains above 103 USD. What is noteworthy is not only the increase of each coin but the reason behind it: expectations for US monetary policy are rapidly changing ahead of important employment data. This is a session where the market is reacting to changes in macroeconomic expectations, rather than just aMany AI models collectively predict that tonight's non-farm payroll data will most likely be lower than expected.
If employment data weakens, it will reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, suppressing the US dollar and US Treasury yields. Improved liquidity expectations theoretically directly benefit $BTC and $XAUT, both of which are assets highly sensitive to interest rates.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
But model predictions are not facts; non-farm payrolls often deviate significantly from expectations. We also need to watch the unemployment rate and wage growth simultaneously. If wages remain high, even if new employment falls short of expectations, the positive effect will be weakened.
#比特币再破80000美元
There is a high risk of spikes before and after the data release, so do not heavily speculate in advance. It is safer to wait for the complete data release and observe market support before making operational decisions. $XAU #原油供应扰动反复，油价高位波动 Why did the market suddenly rally collectively last night?
No beating around the bush, here are 5 quick comments straight to the point 👇
Quick Comment 1: Waller signals "pause on rate hikes," market cheers first
The biggest variable last night was still the Federal Reserve.
Waller's latest statement is very clear: if the inflation data in August continues to improve, he tends to support keeping the current interest rate unchanged in September; but if inflation heats up again, he does not rule out voting to raise rates.
More importantly, the three-month core inflation has already dropped from about 4.8% in February to about 3.1% as of July, showing a clear downward trend.
So the market's first reaction is simple:
Rate hike expectations cool down → US Treasury yields fall → US dollar weakens → Risk assets collectively recover.
But note, Waller is not unconditionally dovish; the meeting on September 15–16 will still be data-driven to decide the direction.
---
Quick Comment 2: Geopolitical risks have not worsened for now, risk appetite returns
The Middle East remains the biggest "bomb" in the market.
But last night the market was not trading on a full escalation, rather on eased concerns about the conflict spiraling further out of control.
However, we shouldn't be too optimistic—latest news shows there are still military actions between the US and Iran, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has not been truly resolved.
So more accurately:
Geopolitical risk premium has cooled down but has not disappeared.
As long as oil prices do not spiral out of control, the market has some breathing room. Recovery above the $80,000 mark! $BTC retakes the key range
Intraday price surged above $80,800. Compared to last week's dip to $76,000 triggered by macroeconomic comments, this rebound leans more towards a secondary confirmation of the market structure. Many voices previously declared the rally over and predicted a bearish drop to $60,000, but the capital flow did not follow the pessimistic expectations, proving solid support at the lower levels.
The source of buying support is very clear: spot ETFs provide the most direct confidence. Recent consecutive days of net capital inflows have stabilized market sentiment. The overall inflow scale in August has significantly increased compared to July, making it one of the strongest months for capital inflows recently. Institutional channels are not just for show; real money is entering the market.
Market signals resonate simultaneously: Coinbase's premium relative to Binance has turned from negative to positive, indicating a warming of buying demand in the U.S. market. After several months of weakening premiums, this reversal shows that compliant funds and institutional buying are returning.
However, with the market warming up, blind chasing of highs should be avoided. The $80,000–$81,000 range is a pressure zone from previous rallies and pullbacks. True confirmation of bullish strength requires a pullback to hold $78,000–$79,000, accompanied by sustained volume and ETF capital inflows. Upcoming employment data and interest rate expectations will still cause significant volatility, so leverage positions must be conservatively managed.
In the short term, regaining $80,000 merely reflects bullish sentiment; only a valid breakout and hold above $81,000 will fully open the upside. Regarding position strategy, holding a base position can be patiently maintained following the structure, and those planning to enter the market can consider doing so.$BTC — I’M MORE INTERESTED IN THE RETEST THAN THE BREAKOUT.
Bitcoin reclaiming $80K is definitely constructive, but I don't think the first move higher is where I want to make my biggest decision.
BTC is now approaching the $82K–$83K resistance zone, and after a sharp rally, volatility can easily increase.
We could see profit-taking.
We could see a liquidity sweep.
We could see BTC reject resistance and come back down to test the breakout.
And honestly, that wouldn't necessarily be bearish.
A healthy retest can give the market a chance to establish whether buyers are actually willing to defend the reclaimed levels.
That's what I'm waiting for.
I don't want to buy simply because Bitcoin is moving quickly.
I want to see:
Breakout → pullback → retest → liquidity → confirmation.
If BTC holds the retest and buyers step back in, that gives me a much cleaner setup to consider increasing exposure.
Until then, I'm keeping things controlled.
The ETF picture also reinforces the need for selectivity.
Bitcoin demand remains supportive, but altcoin flows aren't showing the same level of conviction.
So I'm separating my exposure by risk:
Core: $BTC, $ETH
Growth: $SOL, $XRP
High beta: $HYPE, $ZEC
Higher risk: $KAITO, $BEAT
Different assets require different risk management.
I'm bullish on opportunities, but that doesn't mean I need to chase every green candle.
The market will give us another entry if the trend is real.
For now, I'm watching $82K–$83K closely and waiting to see whether Bitcoin can turn that resistance into support.
Let the breakout prove itself. 🔥$ETH was pressured by macro factors last night, but this morning it pulled back to 2490 thanks to initial jobless claims and dovish comments from Waller.
This morning, ETH traded in the range of $2490‑2511, having followed BTC's synchronous drop last night.
Initial jobless claims data exceeded expectations combined with Waller's dovish remarks: as long as inflation falls in August, no rate hike will be considered in September. The market immediately lowered the probability of a September rate hike from 63.2% to 50.4%. The market quickly recovered, BTC rose back to 80,800, and ETH rebounded by 4.8%‑5.3%, surging to 2494‑2511. The market feels like it was pressured by a meeting on Monday and then soothed with a comforting drink on Tuesday; sentiment briefly warmed but has not fully recovered.
The capital flow is even more interesting. ETH ETFs are not uniformly flowing in or out but rather appear to be internal position adjustments within institutions.
On September 2, spot ETH ETFs had a net outflow of 48.08 million: ETHA outflowed 53.35 million, while ETHB actually inflowed 52.92 million.
On September 4 during the US Eastern session, there was another net outflow of about 167 million, with FETH outflowing 217 million and ETHA counter-trending inflowing 149 million.
The current total AUM is about 2.778 billion USD, with a historical cumulative net inflow of 13.17 billion USD.
BlackRock's staking products and traditional spot ETFs operate independently, with Fidelity choosing to reduce positions first. Institutions are no longer blindly dollar-cost averaging but are reallocating positions among products with different maturities.
⚠️This is only a summary of market information and does not constitute investment advice. The market is volatile; manage your positions and risk accordingly. A few days ago, the market was still discussing whether $BTC would continue to fall.
And now?
BTC has already climbed back above 80,000.
This is the most interesting part of the market — prices always move faster than sentiment.
Yesterday, BTC quickly surged from around 77K, once breaking through 82K, and the short-term structure has clearly improved.
But I won’t declare the bull market is back just because of one big bullish candle.
There is still one last hurdle:
82K–83K.
If it breaks through and holds here, it means the previous resistance is truly being digested, and we can continue to watch 85K, 88K, and 90K above.
If the breakout fails and it returns to around 80K, it doesn’t mean the trend is immediately over.
As long as around 78K can hold, this rebound structure still has observational value.
So the most important thing now is not to predict.
But to wait for confirmation.
If BTC breaks above 83K, I see room to grow; if BTC falls below 80K, I expect a pullback.
The rest, I leave to the candlesticks.Just looked at $AAOI, the AI data center optical module segment is really a love-hate relationship 😂
The stock price is now hovering around $100 (closed at about 100.38 on September 3, down 2.67%), but it has surged nearly 190% year-to-date, more than tripling in a year. However, it has already been cut in half from the May high of $233. Recently, they secured a huge order of over $200 million for 1.6T optical modules from a hyperscale customer. Q2 revenue hit a new high of about $192 million, non-GAAP turned positive, and Q3 guidance is still very strong.
However, at the end of August, they announced a maximum $600 million secondary offering plan, which caused dilution concerns and directly knocked the stock price down. Capacity expansion is also accelerating (Texas factory ramp-up), and people are still debating whether demand is enough to absorb these shares. Short-term volatility is real, but the long-term logic of following AI infrastructure remains.
What do you think? Is this a bottom-fishing opportunity or better to wait and see? #Lumentum营收翻倍，AI光通信需求延续 #星球日报 #OKX星球话题来啦 #WallerEyesAugCPI Waller’s latest comments make the September decision feel more conditional than the market was pricing a few days ago 👀
He said he favors holding if August inflation continues to improve, but could support a hike if the data comes in strong. Next week’s CPI and PPI will be central to that call, while he described the labor market as satisfactory.
Jobless claims came in at 206K, close to expectations and still within this year’s familiar range. Meanwhile, CME odds of a 25bp hike fell to 50.2% from above 70%, as Treasury yields slipped and the dollar weakened 📉
To me, that shift shows how little conviction the market currently has. Expectations are moving sharply even though the underlying data has changed only gradually.
Tonight’s payroll report should add another clue—but inflation still looks like the final test before the September meeting.速评一：沃勒态度松动，市场重新押注9月政策 昨晚真正点燃风险资产的，还是美联储预期。 沃勒释放出明显偏鸽的信号：如果通胀继续降温，他倾向于支持9月维持利率不变。 市场马上重新定价，9月政策转向的担忧明显下降。 说白了就是一句话： 通胀不继续恶化 → 美联储没必要急着收紧 → 流动性预期改善。 BTC、纳指和高贝塔资产自然第一时间反应。 速评二：特朗普讲话，让地缘风险暂时降温 特朗普昨晚继续释放缓和信号，表示中东军事行动不会无限期持续，同时霍尔木兹海峡相关风险预期有所缓解。 原本被市场计入油价的地缘政治溢价开始回吐。 油价压力减轻，市场最喜欢的剧本就出现了： 战争风险下降 + 能源价格降温 + 风险偏好回归。 资金自然开始从防御重新切向权益和加密资产。 速评三：美债收益率回落，美元走弱，黄金却继续强势 贝森特最新表态继续强调美国通胀整体处于可控状态。 随后美债收益率走低，美元指数同步回落。 但有意思的是，黄金依旧维持强势，重新站上 $4,500 附近。 这说明现在市场并不是单纯的“risk-on”，而是： 美元承压 + 降息预期升温 + 避险需求仍在。 所以黄金和BTC同时走强，并不矛盾Last night, Bitcoin surged to 82100, now it has pulled back to 80686. The nature of this rally is different from what everyone expected, and I'll explain it in four layers. First layer, this is not really about the crypto market.
The trigger was Federal Reserve Governor Waller's statement that he might support keeping interest rates unchanged. The key is to consider what the market was thinking before this statement. The derivatives market had priced in a 50% to 70% chance of a rate hike in September—note, a hike, not a cut—so everyone was already bracing for a hit.
Then suddenly, he said it might not happen.
This is a difference in expectations. It's not about how big the positive news is, but how big the gap is compared to the original expectations. Second layer, this is a reduction of negative factors, not an increase in positive factors—these two are completely different. Real positive news means new money coming in, like ETF inflows, institutional accumulation, or legislation passing. Reducing negatives means those who were planning to exit no longer do, shorts are forced to cover, and this money was already in the market, just changing direction.
A move from 77100 to 82100, a 5,000-point jump, largely driven by short covering.
The problem with rallies driven by short covering is that once it's done, it's over. Shorts are limited; once covered, there’s no next batch.
Third layer, the foundation of this positive news is fragile.
Waller is just one governor, not the entire committee; his stance doesn’t mean the meeting decision is set.
Other fundamentals remain unchanged: oil prices still at $98, 10-year Treasury yields still at 4.75, inflation pressure persists. Waller’s statement didn’t change any fundamentals.
Fourth layer, what should we do now?
I’ve changed my view to bullish; the market has indeed broken upwards, and this I won’t change $BTC $DOS is trading at $0.2452 (+1.57%), holding within its 24h range between $0.2283 and $0.2471.
Price is trading above MA5 ($0.2418), MA10 ($0.2405), and MA20 ($0.2367) on the 1H, bouncing off support at $0.2443.
Driven by $5.31M USDT in daily turnover and 21.65M $DOS in 24h volume, breaking $0.2471 resistance could pave the way for a test of $0.2543 resistance level.
#DailyOrbit Bitcoin's move back above $80,000 looks more like a credible risk reset than a fleeting headline spike. ETH is slightly stronger on the day, while SOL is lagging, which argues for selective participation rather than indiscriminate momentum chasing.
My stance is cautiously constructive. Holding the $80,000 area would strengthen the case that buyers are absorbing supply, but a fast loss of that level would turn this into another failed breakout.
Just my read, not advice.
#DailyOrbit The short position strategy on Bitcoin perfectly played out ✅
A bearish signal was given at midnight, setting up short positions at resistance levels. The first target of 80800‑80500 was reached as expected, with the price pulling back to 80719, locking in profits!
No chasing the rally at the top; recognizing the stagnation signal, playing the resistance level and waiting patiently for the pullback. The market moved as anticipated.A crypto treasury company compounds only while its stock trades above the coins it holds. Slip below and it reverses: no premium to issue equity against, so the choices narrow to selling the stack, getting acquired, or levering up to fake a yield. ETHZilla sold $40M of ETH for buybacks at a 30% discount; Metaplanet's mNAV sits at 0.99. My read: it's the structural cost of one reflexive asset carrying a whole equity story.
NFA — DYOR.
#CryptoTreasuryDurability 昨晚市场直接上演了一波“空头反杀”。 BTC 从 $7.7万附近一路拉升，最高逼近 $8.2万，单日涨幅一度超过6%。与此同时，$ETH、$XRP 等主流币也同步走强，整个加密市场风险偏好明显回暖。 这次上涨的核心催化剂，还是美联储。 美联储理事 Christopher Waller 最新释放明显偏鸽信号：如果接下来的8月通胀数据继续改善，他倾向于支持9月暂缓加息；但如果通胀重新升温，他仍会考虑加息。 市场马上给出了反应——9月加息预期从前一天约63%快速回落到50%左右，美债收益率和美元同步走弱，BTC 顺势突破 $8万。 但问题来了： $8万突破，是新一轮上涨的起点，还是短线情绪顶？ 我现在重点盯三个区域👇 📌 第一压力：$8.2万—$8.3万 这里是前期高点密集区，如果放量站稳，下一步才有机会继续打开上涨空间。 📌 第一支撑：$8万附近 突破之后能不能把 $8万从压力变成支撑，非常关键。 如果回踩 $8万附近能够稳住，多头结构依然完整；如果重新跌破，则要警惕回到 $7.7万—$7.8万区域寻找支撑。 📌 更重要的是宏观数据 9月11日公布美国8月CPI，这才是真正的“验证From the perspective of position structure, the account's current total leverage ratio is as high as 6.13x, and all three assets (PIPPIN, TRUMP, BONK) are in short (sell) positions. This one-sided positioning indicates that traders are extremely bearish on the current market sentiment or are concentrating their attacks on specific hot tokens (such as Meme coins). Regarding trading details, the strategy clearly shows a tendency of "heavy positions to seek small profits":
PIPPINUSDT: Using 3x leverage, holding 600 units, with a return rate of 12.05%, but the actual profit is only 0.48 USDT.
TRUMPUSDT: Using 5x leverage, return rate 13.70%, profit 0.56 USDT.
BONKUSDT: Using 5x leverage, holding a huge amount (12.8 million units), return rate 9.96%, profit 0.81 USDT.
Core risk analysis: Asymmetric profit and loss: the total profit of the three positions is less than 2 USDT, but each position uses 4-8 USDT margin and bears about 5x leverage risk for this small profit. If the market moves against the position by 15%-20%, the principal will face a huge drawdown risk.
Meme coin volatility risk: The selected assets are all highly volatile Meme or politically themed coins (TRUMP, BONK). These assets are prone to "spike" movements, and 5x leverage can easily trigger forced liquidation under extreme volatility. Although the current maintenance margin ratio seems very high (1000%+), this is calculated based on the current small profit state; if prices rebound, the safety buffer will quickly disappear.