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#FOMC Last Set of Data Before: This Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls This Friday's nonfarm payrolls may determine the direction for September
The August nonfarm payrolls released on Friday are the last complete employment report before the September FOMC. The market expects an increase of about 50,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining around 4.1%-4.2%. More notably, ADP has already signaled weakness: private employment in August increased by only 38,000, below expectations, indicating that corporate hiring is continuing to cool down.
However, what the market is truly trading this time is not the "quality of employment," but whether the employment data can change the Fed's rate hike path.
If the nonfarm payrolls significantly exceed expectations and wage growth is strong, the market will reinforce expectations for a rate hike in September, and U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar may continue to pressure risk assets; conversely, if employment again approaches zero or turns negative, the deterioration in the labor market will limit the Fed's room to tighten further.
Therefore, the biggest risk on Friday is not simply bearish or bullish, but the expectation gap. What BTC really needs to watch now is how the 2-year Treasury yield and the dollar move after the data is released—they tell us more about what the market is actually trading than the nonfarm numbers themselves. $BTC $BTC
War has broken out, yet BTC has fallen below 77,000, and the safe-haven narrative has been once again disproven
The US military airstruck Iran, suddenly escalating geopolitical risks, crude oil surged, but BTC has fallen steadily from the intraday high, hitting a low of $76,700.
Many have long called BTC "digital gold," believing that when war and geopolitical conflicts escalate, funds will flow into Bitcoin as a safe haven.
But the reality is, when war comes, BTC actually fell.
Why?
Because for the crypto market, geopolitical events do not necessarily bring safe-haven funds; more often, they cause risk appetite to decline, liquidity to tighten, and market panic.
War → oil price rise → inflation expectations heat up → rate cut expectations cool down → risk assets under pressure.
So currently, BTC is more like a thermometer of global liquidity in the short term, rather than a traditional safe-haven asset.
As geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, market volatility will only further amplify.
How BTC moves next mainly depends on the war situation, dollar liquidity, and market risk appetite.At the far end of the chessboard, the king is not yet in check, but the 4.75% flame has already burned from the king's wing of the ten-year term to the flank—after twenty months, Black has finally decided not to avoid a long check.
Bessent's opening is a standard flank pawn sacrifice: gently sending the capital rule pawn into the small bank's territory, seemingly relaxing but actually to gain tempo. A grandmaster doesn't flinch over losing a pawn; what truly matters is control of the center—if the pawn chain of equipment, manufacturing, and technology can continuously advance along credit, the promotion path will open. But promotion is always a bluff unless you have calculated the next twenty moves in advance. Anyone who thinks loosening capital automatically brings prosperity is a third-rate player who declares victory after seeing only three squares of the board.
Walsh set up a rare king's wing defense on the other corner of the board: he refuses to move the king for inflation, as if nailing the black king to the baseline. Oil prices are like a furious pawn rushing past the center line, and long-term bond supply resembles a continuous exchange of pieces, each step reinforcing the high-interest pawn formation. The 4.75% is not a casual move but a forced response involving a full twenty-move calculation—it makes the market acknowledge that as long as the central bank does not actively change formation, yields will hold that one open straight line.
When the Treasury amplifies long bond repos, outsiders think White is offering a draw. My interpretation is exactly the opposite: it is withdrawing the two rooks from the rigid front line back to the baseline, allowing liquidity, the hidden piece, to reoccupy the connecting squares. Repos don't make anyone easier; they keep enough available moves on the board—without active pieces in the endgame, even grandmasters have only mechanical moves left, losing the sharpness to turn the game around.
The real outcome hides in where the credit pawns advance. Flowing to equipment, manufacturing, and technology is like a long-range bishop crossing the center pawns to provide support; flowing to consumption, real estate, and inflation assets is like opening the diagonal for Black to repeatedly check with high interest rates. As long as price pressure persists, high interest rates will stubbornly occupy key points like heavy pieces; the wider the credit, the more stable they remain on the formation.
Those who watch the game always calculate checks; those who win only calculate the endgame. The board does not change color just because someone says "capital relief"; the breadth of credit growth is the hidden piece that determines who can survive into the endgame. The easing of debt pressure and the rise in financing costs are two doors of the same endgame— which door you ultimately push open was already written the moment the credit pawns advanced. #bessentcapitalrelief#财报观察员: Broadcom's performance exceeds expectations, Snowflake raises guidance Two major AI company earnings reports overnight made the story quite dramatic. Broadcom delivered a solid and impressive report this quarter, with chip sales booming, AI-related revenue surging sharply, and all key metrics outperforming market expectations. However, when the earnings were first released, the short-term guidance for the next quarter was slightly weak, causing the stock to drop 6% in after-hours trading. But once the conference call started, they unveiled a super long-term plan, saying AI business revenue will multiply over the next two years, which pulled the stock back up sharply, like a roller coaster ride. Minor short-term flaws can't stop the long-term AI orders piling up; institutions are focused on the big cake ahead. On the other hand, Snowflake also surprised the market. Previously, there were concerns that with AI hardware booming, software companies might be marginalized. But their earnings and profits both beat expectations, and they directly raised their full-year performance targets, sending the stock up more than 20% in after-hours trading. This shows AI is not just about buying chips and computing power; enterprises are genuinely spending on data and software, not just hype. Putting the two earnings reports together, both hardware and software are strengthening, lifting sentiment in the US tech sector. $SNDK $MU But be clear-headed: after-hours trading volume is thin, and the big swings have a lot of noise; the gains may not fully hold at the next day's open. Mapping this to the crypto space, the warming sentiment in US tech stocks will give some emotional support to risk assets, but the impact is only short-term. $"The mining giant that made its fortune from Bitcoin mining is about to pull the plug: shutting down all mining machines and turning to AI as a landlord, collecting $17 billion in rent annually."
The mining giant that made its fortune from Bitcoin mining is about to pull the plug, preferring to shut down all mining machines and switch to being a landlord for large AI models.
Mining is completely dependent on luck, with output halving over four years while having to endure the rapidly increasing mining difficulty and computing power. Machines spin wildly but can't keep up with the heavy electricity costs.
Mining companies hold ready-made high-voltage power grid quotas, which ordinary large factories wait years to get for power substations. All of these have been repurposed into 2-gigawatt intelligent computing centers, collecting $17 billion in rent annually.
Now, three-year computing power long-term contracts have caused rent to skyrocket and double, allowing the cost of graphics cards to be fully recovered in two years. Tech giants line up to sign long-term contracts and deliver cash monthly.
Ready electricity has long become a scarce hard currency, and leading mining giants are collectively turning toward the new battlefield of computing power. $BTC 80% of the bull market phase is painful
April 2025 was the worst phase for Ethereum, with Bitcoin dropping 30%, while Ethereum fell directly 60% before completing its bottom formation
However, at the beginning of May, three big bullish candles pushed the price up to 2800, and after consolidating for two months, most people still thought it was just a rebound and held little hope
Especially near the end of the consolidation, there was a fake breakdown to 2100, that day really felt like the bear market was returning, very agonizing
Surprisingly, it then surged all the way to 3900, and even at that price, there was still disagreement
During the process, the rise was cautious, shorts kept opening positions, getting liquidated and opening again,
Especially those two bearish candles in early August that dropped to 3400, many thought the rally was over, and many exited during the consolidation range because in the past two times, ETH topped near 4000
Then ETH broke through 4200 with no resistance, and only then did confidence surge, unexpectedly reaching a new high for this cycle
From 4200 to 4800 took only 4 days, then entered top consolidation, meaning you could experience carefree joy but only had 4 days of upward movement
The remaining one or two months of joy had to be spent in consolidation, but at that time big money was offloading
Currently, Bitcoin has risen from 60,000 to 80,000 and entered a grinding consolidation, some are waiting for a big pullback, some for 60,000, and others for the four-year cycle bottom in October
If the K-line drops a bit more, panic starts, but don’t worry, this is exactly how a bull market should be
Without disagreement, the bull market cannot continue
Besides disagreement, the process is full of noise, making it easy for people to exit or trade in waves
At the top and bottom, at least everyone’s emotions and direction align, extreme signals help you judge whether it’s a bottom or top, but the middle process is extremely chaotic
Today you see the Strait throwing missiles at each other and think a big drop is inevitable, but 2 minutes later, good news will push the price up
Today you hear hawkish speeches from the Fed, tomorrow you see the Treasury releasing liquidity benefits
The key is, once the news is announced and the price fluctuates accordingly, that news becomes invalid, but every time you make a decision, you unconsciously use that news to justify your conclusion again
At the end of October 2023, macro interest rates were highest, balance sheet reduction was harshest, Treasury was issuing bonds to drain liquidity, rationally it was clearly not a bull market condition, so some started trading in waves, waiting for the last drop
But the bull market still started, ignoring logic and ethics, only known in hindsight
Expecting to buy back then means facing the contradiction of buying high and fake breakouts, the pain is comparable to missing out
And missing out is even more painful than being stuck
So, during this period, there’s nothing much to do, it’s suitable for lurking, reading, and controlling your impulses Brothers, before tonight's market opens, I have to be blunt: I’m not too confident chasing the ETH recovery rally; I’m actually more bearish.
Right now $ETH is hovering around 2398, stuck at the psychological 2400 mark. Short-term moving averages are starting to converge, but volume hasn’t noticeably increased. It looks more like a breather after a drop rather than a true reversal. $BTC C is also oscillating near 77,700, so it’s a bit tough for ETH to strengthen on its own.
Macro factors are the biggest pressure right now. The September rate hike expectations have clearly heated up recently, with the market repricing to around 60%–67%. Oil prices and inflation worries are also weighing on risk assets. Tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls are critical; weak employment could lower rate hike expectations, while strong data could continue to suppress BTC and ETH.
So my thinking is simple: if ETH can’t hold above 2400, I remain bearish; if it breaks below 2380, look for 2355 or even lower. Conversely, if the non-farm data is clearly weak, don’t force the short; ETH might see a rebound.
AI and Nvidia can still support US stock sentiment, but the market is already starting to focus on orders and capital expenditures—it’s not just a blind AI rally anymore.
To put it plainly, the bulls just climbed back from 2355 to 2400, and there’s a non-farm payrolls sword hanging over their heads 😂
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 The basement needs a new steel beam drawing—the transfer agent rule update submitted by the SEC on September 1 is not about tiling an old building, but about migrating the entire building’s utility shafts from paper blueprints to digital strata. Custody records, corporate actions, settlement nodes—these three load-bearing pillars are required to be cast into a hybrid structure of electronic files and blockchain. In the same week, the September 17 roundtable set up another construction site: 24-hour U.S. stock trading, with Robinhood, NYSE, BlackRock, Nasdaq, DTCC, and Citadel all present, sitting together like the client, general contractor, supervisor, and steel structure subcontractor, discussing whether the building can continue pile driving at night without disturbing the residents.
From my decades of structural engineering perspective, this is a "dual-track stress test"—on the left is the underlying ledger transformation for issuance and transfer, on the right is the continuous trading hours. On the surface, these are two separate matters, but in reality, they ask the same question: when load-bearing walls are pierced and floors become cantilevered, what guarantees the building won’t collapse? The answer is: records. Records are the building’s rebar diagrams. Digitization is not just scanning blueprints into a computer, but making the position of every rebar verifiable data flow before casting. Blockchain here is not a decorative curtain wall; it truly solves the permanent node marking of "who operated on which pillar, on which floor, and at what time."
Those who bet just by reading white papers are like standing in front of a rendering imagining the skyline. The real engineering logic is: a trading hall allowing 24-hour continuous trading equals turning the load originally applied during the day into all-weather cyclic stress. You might think extending business hours is just opening a few more windows? Wrong. This is effectively raising the building’s seismic rating by one intensity level. If the settlement hub DTCC still uses the old-fashioned "manual reconciliation and unified matching late at night," it’s like building a super high-rise with brick-and-concrete thinking—utility shafts, fire exits, backup power all need to be reconstructed. And the transfer agent rules landing on blockchain precisely pre-embed fiber optic pipelines for this new building. These are not two isolated hearings but the pile foundation and podium on the same master plan.
The interesting thing about the XSKHY project is not the candlestick chart but its construction progress. The market always watches how many floors the building has reached, but no one asks if the diaphragm wall of the foundation pit is solid. The SEC this time wrote "electronic records" and "blockchain in issuance and transfer" into the draft rules, which is like marking on the blueprint: "prefabricated components are allowed but must pass structural calculations." The agents who anchor historical data with on-chain fingerprints are the key support to keep 24-hour trading from falling into an accounting maze. The old paradigm of daytime trading and nighttime settlement is like a single-span frame structure relying only on fixed supports; now it must become a continuous beam, with each span bearing bending moments and sharing loads.
Some cheer "the night gets more exciting," others worry "the lights on make it impossible to see the stars." What I see is another layer: the fatigue resilience of the clearing and monitoring system. In an all-weather operating financial market, the monitor is no longer a person staring at a screen but an algorithm that, like a structural health monitoring system, reads the first crisp crack from floor vibrations. The "readiness" discussed by NYSE and Citadel is called "damping ratio" in my terminology—the structure’s ability to absorb energy and remain stable during resonance. That September 17 roundtable was a wind tunnel test, shaking the model in digital airflow for three minutes first.
Don’t rush to talk about market cap. The final height of a building is never decided by the tower crane but by the hundreds of invisible cast-in-place piles in the foundation. What the SEC is doing now is recalculating the old building’s pile foundation while approving new pile type changes. When records can be stamped like steel seals into the gene of every trading particle, the transfer agent upgrades from "archivist" to "structural engineer."
The rules are still in the comment period, the blueprints hanging on the wall waiting for annotations. Meanwhile, the real construction team has already started building the first load-bearing wall with blockchain mortar. As for the XSKHY building—I’ll just say this: no matter how shiny its facade is, it can’t fool the ground-penetrating radar beam hitting the sole of your foot late at night. #secmarketmodernizationOne Company Just Made a Very Clear Bet on Bitcoin
Japan-listed Remixpoint has sold its entire holdings of $ETH, $SOL, $XRP and $DOGE, leaving roughly 1,506 BTC as its only cryptocurrency holding. The company sold the altcoins for about ¥878.8M and booked a profit of roughly ¥117.8M.
I don't read this as proof that altcoins are finished.
I read it as a signal about where institutional conviction is strongest right now.
When a corporate treasury chooses to simplify its crypto exposure into $BTC, it is effectively prioritizing liquidity, market depth and the asset's established position within institutional portfolios.
That distinction matters.
$ETH may have stronger smart-contract exposure. $SOL has major on-chain activity. $XRP has growing institutional interest. But Bitcoin remains the asset many institutions are most comfortable holding through macro uncertainty.
My radar:
$BTC is still the primary benchmark. The next question is whether other institutions follow the same concentration strategy.
$ETH needs to prove that its institutional narrative can translate into sustained demand.
$SOL and $XRP are important because both have developed significant institutional narratives of their own.
$BNB, $SUI, $APT and $AVAX remain on my radar for ecosystem growth, but higher-beta assets need stronger liquidity conditions to outperform.
In DeFi, $AAVE, $UNI and $CRV can reveal whether capital is actually moving deeper into on-chain markets.
For infrastructure, $LINK remains critical to the broader tokenization thesis, while $ONDO represents one of the clearest RWA narratives.
AI-related assets such as $TAO, $RENDER and $FET remain useful gauges of speculative appetite.
And $ARB and $OP need to demonstrate that Layer 2 activity can attract capital even when investors become more selective.
The bigger signal is not that one Japanese company sold four altcoins.
It is why it chose to keep Bitcoin.
Institutional crypto adoption does not automatically mean every asset benefits equally.
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue $MU Micron at 950, even giving bonuses to retain people, orders are indeed many, capacity is indeed tight, and the stock price is still hovering around 950.
Micron is giving the highest performance bonuses in years to avoid worker strikes — indicating that orders are indeed many, capacity is indeed tight, and the demand for AI storage is indeed still there. HBM capacity is booked until 2026, and demand for DRAM and NAND is also recovering. But the stock price fell from 969 to 926, bounced back to 950, and is still treading water. Giving bonuses to keep workers, expanding production to meet demand, the demand is real, but the stock price is falling. The better the company, the lower the stock price; sometimes you have to admit that the market is out of sync for a while between short-term pricing and long-term value.
SAR=942 is below, EMA21=944, EMA55=941, price is above all moving averages. KDJ's J value is 96, RSI6=53. The structure is indeed strengthening, but there is obvious selling pressure at 959. If it can't break through 959, it will return to around 940.
At this position, do you think it's a shakeout or distribution?🫡I prefer to see this round of ARB's surge as a repricing of the old rules rather than a cash flow realization.
Official ArbitrumDAO data only confirms: Robinhood Chain returns 10% of protocol net revenue to the ecosystem, 8% goes to the DAO treasury, and 2% to the developer guild; this does not mean income is directly distributed to ARB holders. ARB rose 23.35% in 24 hours, and in 4 hours it has already moved far from the EMA20 at 0.1147, with immediate resistance at 0.14126.
Holding above 0.14126 indicates that capital is still willing to buy into this narrative; if it falls back to EMA20, I will treat this wave as an emotional pulse. What we should really wait for now is the actual revenue recorded in the DAO report, not the fee numbers from social posts.
$ARB #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温
For information organization and personal opinion only, not investment advice. Tomorrow night the Nonfarm Payrolls are coming, let's discuss several current market trend scenarios for $BTC
⚠️ The following is only my personal market logic analysis, not investment advice. The market always holds surprises, trade at your own risk.
With the Nonfarm Payrolls approaching tomorrow night, the market volatility has clearly narrowed in recent days, and BTC is grinding back and forth within a range.
It's obvious that big money is currently on the sidelines, unwilling to bet on a direction prematurely. Everyone is waiting for this employment report to provide a catalyst for short-term moves.
From a technical perspective, BTC has been trading in a long-term consolidation box. There is a concentrated selling pressure zone above, with multiple attempts failing to break out with volume; below, there is support, with several probes downward failing to break down effectively.
This "resistance above, support below" converging pattern generally means: the closer to the data release, the smaller the volatility; after the data lands, volatility is very likely to expand.
In other words, the Nonfarm Payrolls may not change the medium-to-long-term trend but are very likely to break the current frustrating sideways consolidation.
Here are my three personal predicted market scenarios after tomorrow night, objectively shared for discussion:
🟢 Scenario 1: Nonfarm Payrolls significantly weaker than expected (employment cooling but no crash)
Market's first reaction: betting on an earlier Fed rate cut, weakening USD and US Treasury yields, risk assets sentiment improves.
Market projection:
BTC has a chance to test the upper resistance level. If the rise is accompanied by increased volume, it may break the current consolidation range and open new upside space;
But there is a trap here: many times we have seen “good news triggers a spike, then quickly falls back.” This is the classic "buy the rumor, sell the fact". Even if the data is dovish, short-term spikes may be followed by profit-taking from bulls, pushing the price back into the box range.
Don't assume bad data means a one-way big rally.
🟡 Scenario 2: Nonfarm Payrolls meet expectations, neither good nor bad
This is the most frustrating scenario and one I personally think has a high probability.
Once the data is out, the market sees no major change in employment, and no obvious short-term Fed policy shift.
Without new macro guidance, BTC is very likely to: spike up to clear short positions above, then spike down to clear long positions below, shaking out leverage back and forth, continuing the consolidation.
This kind of market is a nightmare for futures traders. The direction jumps sideways, stop losses get hit on both sides, you work hard all night, and the price wakes up back at the starting point.
In this case, the best strategy is to lower expectations and not hope for a big one-sided move.
🔴 Scenario 3: Nonfarm Payrolls significantly exceed expectations, employment hot
Market interpretation: strong economic resilience, rate cuts will be delayed further. USD and US Treasury yields rise, risk assets under pressure.
Market projection:
BTC faces short-term correction pressure, testing lower support levels.
But there are two degrees:
1. Slightly better than expected: possibly just a short-term pullback, the lower boundary of the consolidation box can hold;
2. Data blows out significantly: rate cut expectations cool sharply, support may be broken, opening deeper correction space.
❗ There is also a hidden black swan scenario many overlook:
Nonfarm Payrolls are extremely poor, so bad that the market starts fearing a recession crisis.
Here the logic reverses: although everyone knows the Fed will likely cut rates, panic sentiment overwhelms everything, and everyone sells risk assets to seek safety.
Even a "rate cut good news" scenario could see BTC fall along with the broader market.
This is why you can't simply remember "bad data = rise, good data = fall." Market logic is not a fixed formula; sometimes market sentiment interpretation is more important than the data itself.
To summarize my current view:
The medium-to-long-term trend is hard to completely reverse based on a single Nonfarm Payrolls report. The Nonfarm mainly determines the short-term direction for the next week or two.
The current market consolidation shows bulls and bears are evenly matched, both waiting for an excuse to launch an attack.
For spot traders:
Don't go all-in or all-out based on one data release. Watch if the price can effectively break above or below key ranges after the data, then judge the short-term rhythm. Large positions should be based on long-term logic, not swayed by one night's news.
For futures traders:
Slippage and spikes on Nonfarm night are traditional skills. Whether you are bullish or bearish, don't heavily bet on a single outcome. Have your favored scenario in mind but prepare for the other two scenarios as well. Plan your position size and stop losses in advance. Don't turn one night's game into a gamble risking your entire capital.
There are countless market possibilities; no one can predict every move accurately. What we can do is prepare plans for each scenario so that whatever direction the market takes, we have a corresponding response.
After tomorrow night's data release, will BTC break upward, break downward, or continue grinding sideways?
Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments for rational discussion.
⚠️ Risk reminder: This article is only my personal market view for discussion and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile; please manage risk and participate rationally.
$BTC $ETH #Strategy终止逢低买币，Q2账面亏82亿 What’s most worth discussing about Robinhood Chain today isn’t which Meme rose again, but rather a Meme that skewed the “stock price.”
BONER uses tokenized HIMS as a trading pair, and after a large amount of HIMS was absorbed into the liquidity pool, the on-chain supply became increasingly scarce. As a result, during the US stock market’s closed hours, the HIMS stock token once surged to $132.64, while the real stock’s closing price was only $28.84.
The company didn’t suddenly quadruple in value; it’s just that the on-chain liquidity was too thin, and the arbitrage channels didn’t function in time.
This also shows: the chain can operate 24/7, but stock issuance, redemption, and arbitrage aren’t necessarily open 24/7. Robinhood’s Stock Token only provides price exposure and does not equal holding the actual stock.
RWA on-chain isn’t as simple as copying a stock ticker.
If liquidity and arbitrage mechanisms take breaks, the so-called 24-hour trading might just be 24-hour chaotic pricing. $80,000: An Impenetrable Wall! Bitcoin's Three Consecutive Attempts Rejected, Triple Forces Firmly Suppress the Market, What to Watch for the Next Breakout?
$80,000 is becoming an unbreakable wall in front of Bitcoin $BTC.
After three consecutive attempts, each time just touching the threshold, it was brutally pushed back. As of early today, the price is stuck around $77,800, unable to rise or fall, leaving the entire market in a deadlock.
This is not just a simple technical resistance. Behind the market are three solid forces jointly holding the price down.
First force: Ongoing Middle East conflicts tighten macro constraints
The US-Iran confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz is no longer just verbal deterrence but real armed conflict.
The US military airstrikes Iranian targets, and Iran retaliates directly with missiles and drones against US bases in Jordan and Kuwait, with Kuwait's air defense intercepting incoming targets throughout. The conflict has lasted for months with no sign of cooling down.
The Strait of Hormuz handles about one-fifth of global oil maritime transport, and the security of this route is precarious. Brent crude oil holds steady at $94, and the 10-year US Treasury yield surges to a high of 4.8%.
The full transmission chain is clear and harsh:
Oil price rises → Inflation expectations rebound → Rate hike expectations intensify → Risk assets collectively pressured
As long as the Gulf conflict continues and oil prices remain high, Bitcoin will struggle to break free from macro constraints and move independently in a single direction.
Second force: September rate hike probability soars to 66%, liquidity expectations turn decisively hawkish
After the Jackson Hole symposium, market bets on a Fed rate hike in September have surged, currently at 66% probability.
The essence of rate hikes is making money more expensive.
Bitcoin itself does not generate interest cash flow; in a high-interest environment, the opportunity cost of holding it rises continuously, and capital naturally tends to withdraw from high-volatility risk assets. It's not that Bitcoin's logic has changed, but that money in the market prioritizes safer returns.
This is the heaviest macro ceiling hanging over the $80,000 threshold.
Third force: 880,000 BTC locked above $80,000, the densest historical trapped zone
More tangible than macro factors is the real selling pressure.
On-chain data shows that in the $80,000–$82,000 range, about 8% of total Bitcoin supply is trapped, nearly 880,000 coins.
These are funds trapped from previous highs; every time the price rebounds to this range, concentrated unlocking and selling occur.
This is why every breakout attempt fails—the issue is not weak bulls but the dense sell orders above.
So, is this the start of a bear market?
Not necessarily.
The $76,350 level below is the average holding cost of active investors, an important psychological and capital support. As long as it is not effectively broken, the bullish structure remains intact.
Meanwhile, spot ETFs still see net inflows, and institutional funds like Strategy continue buying above $80,000. This indicates that large capital has not massively withdrawn but is waiting for a catalyst to break the deadlock.
Key factors for the next breakout:
1. Can the Strait of Hormuz situation cool down?
Oil price is the starting point of the entire macro chain. Without a drop in oil prices, inflation expectations won't ease, rate hike expectations won't retreat, and Bitcoin will struggle to rally unilaterally.
Every bit of easing in geopolitical tensions reduces market pressure.
2. Senate vote on the CLARITY Act on September 15
This is the biggest regulatory variable recently. If passed, crypto regulatory clarity will greatly improve, institutional entry barriers will be further removed, and incremental funds may break through the $80,000 trapped coins.
Regulatory implementation is the true key to breaking the deadlock.
Final thoughts
The current market is neither an accelerating bull market nor the start of a bear market; it is a typical stalemate waiting for direction.
Macro pressure, geopolitical disturbances, trapped coins blocking the way, but support remains, institutional funds remain.
Breaking the deadlock requires a catalyst—either geopolitical easing or regulatory implementation.
Before clear signals emerge, avoid blindly chasing highs to bet on a breakout, and don't easily turn bearish or call a bear market. Control position sizes, strictly defend support, and patiently wait—this is the safest trading strategy in a deadlock.
The biggest taboo in trading is forcing a directional bet in a directionless market. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 This week's nonfarm payrolls may be the last set of national employment data before the September rate-setting meeting. According to the current macro framework, the market needs risk-free and weakening employment data to reduce the probability of a rate hike in September.
While everyone is focused on tomorrow's employment data, tonight's non-manufacturing ISM PMI data is also one of the hidden key points and should not be overlooked.
Tuesday's manufacturing ISM data showed a combination of slowing growth + weakening employment + sticky price index, which only increases market concerns about the current U.S. economy. Tonight's services ISM is even more important.
As the pillar of the U.S. economy, if the services data continues to show slowing growth + weakening employment + stable and sticky price index, it will further increase expectations of mild stagflation. Especially since the current national crude oil price remains firmly above $95, forming an unfavorable combination of mild stagflation expectations + future inflation concerns, which will increase the probability of a September rate hike and suppress risk assets.
To reduce the probability of a September rate hike in the current high oil price environment, tonight's ISM index needs to show a combination of weak growth + weak employment + a significant drop in the price index, easing mild stagflation expectations and allowing the economy to return to a soft landing expectation, which can effectively reduce the probability of a September rate hike.
For the market, whether to trade mild stagflation depends on the bond market, especially the 2-year yield. Mild stagflation expectations will push up the probability of rate hikes, driving the 2-year yield higher. Next is a slight rise in the 10-year yield, while the 30-year yield remains relatively stable or even slightly weaker. Will $BTC $ETH $SOL crash at the key non-farm payroll node tomorrow night?
At 8:30 PM tomorrow night, the last set of core data before the FOMC meeting will be released—the August non-farm payroll report, which is currently the biggest key variable in the market.
The focus of this non-farm report is not on the number of new jobs added, but on the significant revision of the previous data.
Previously, U.S. employment data has been shrinking continuously: July saw a decrease of 23,000 jobs, and the combined revisions for May and June reduced 103,000 jobs, disproving the earlier employment heat.
This market situation is very confusing. Even if August’s new employment turns positive and the data appears strong on the surface, as long as the previous data is revised downward again, the core trend of cooling employment will not change.
The BTC market battle thus becomes complicated, with no absolute one-way benefit.
Weakening employment can ease the Federal Reserve’s rate hike expectations but will trigger market concerns about economic recession, leading to risk asset sell-offs for capital flight.
Short-term market volatility will intensify, with repeated tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Do not simply bet on a rise or fall; it is best to wait and see before the data is released.
Focus closely on the extent of the previous data revisions, as this is the core key that will dominate BTC’s short-term rise and fall and break the current consolidation pattern.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $BTC is holding steady between 76,500 and 79,500 without breaking, due to three layers of reasons:
Macro data: The probability of a rate hike in September is about 66%, so before Nonfarm Payrolls/CPI/FOMC, neither bulls nor bears dare to show their cards.
Lack of new capital: ETF inflows and outflows alternate (2.36 billion outflow on 9/1, 2.16 billion inflow on 8/31), stablecoin supply is stagnant, only leveraged funds are supporting the market.
Technical + seasonal factors: September is historically weak; 76,500 is the support zone based on active address cost, 79,500–82,000 is the resistance zone where trapped positions cap the price.
→ It's not that there is no direction, but the pricing power is handed over to the macro calendar. Daily close below 76,500 shifts to defense, 4-hour chart above 79,500 bulls take the lead.
This week’s Nonfarm, do you think it will first drop to 75k or first test 80k?In this earnings season, I only respect Snowflake, which surged from 304 to 379 in one day, up 23%.
Last night, after the earnings report came out, Snowflake raised its full-year guidance and was immediately bought up after hours.
Across the board, Broadcom's revenue and profit also exceeded expectations, with AI semiconductor revenue at $16.7 billion.
However, its Q4 guidance was a bit soft, and its stock price fell as much as 6% after hours before narrowing the loss.
I think this is not a broad rally; money is picking winners, only seriously turning AI into revenue.
Once the nonfarm payrolls come out tomorrow, sentiment will further diverge, and the crypto market will be the same.
I personally don’t chase highs, only watching reactions around 360 in pre-market pullbacks.
If it falls below 340, I’ll admit this wave is just an emotional pulse and go completely empty-handed.
Which side do you choose: chasing AI earnings stocks after nonfarm, or honestly holding BTC?
$xSNOW $AVGO $BTC
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 After three consecutive days of strong rebound, crude oil is consolidating at a high level. The short-term market has shifted from purely chasing gains due to geopolitical risk aversion to a balanced pattern waiting for new catalysts. The core logic of the current oil price game remains unchanged: Middle East geopolitical risks underpin prices, while weak global demand suppresses upward potential.
The main driver of this round of price increases is the rising geopolitical premium. The ongoing US-Iran conflict has raised market concerns about disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the crude oil supply chain. Risk-averse funds have concentrated in futures, pushing oil prices up rapidly and completing the first wave of event-driven market movement.
The subsequent stagnation and sideways movement are due to three pressures limiting further breakthroughs: first, high oil prices are suppressing demand, with weak domestic import data; sustained high prices will continue to weigh on global consumption and economic expectations; second, short-term longs are taking profits, and without new conflict escalation news, the market naturally enters a consolidation phase; third, OPEC+ supply adjustment expectations impose a certain ceiling on oil prices.
From a technical perspective, crude oil is currently at a critical dividing point. If geopolitical conflicts escalate again and prices break previous highs, risk premiums will continue to be released, and oil prices are expected to rise further; if there is no positive catalyst and fundamentals remain weak, the market will most likely oscillate downward.
Overall, the first round of increases driven by geopolitical factors has concluded. Going forward, the direction of oil prices will be redefined by US inventory data, employment data, and Federal Reserve policy expectations. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 Bitcoin Is Starting to Trade Like a Different Macro Asset
Something unusual is happening beneath the $BTC price action.
Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with gold reached its highest level since 2020 at the end of August, while its relationship with U.S. equities has weakened. The shift happened during a bond-market selloff, when investors were reassessing inflation, yields and monetary policy.
That matters because Bitcoin has historically traded more like a high-beta risk asset than a defensive macro asset.
Now the market is testing a different identity.
$BTC is holding around $78K after August's major rally, even as Treasury yields remain elevated and investors wait for Friday's U.S. payrolls report.
The important question is whether this divergence lasts.
My radar:
I want to see whether $BTC can remain resilient if yields rise again.
$ETH is already giving us a useful contrast. Despite strong ETF demand through much of August, it has struggled to maintain upside momentum.
$SOL, $XRP and $BNB will tell us whether this strength eventually spreads beyond Bitcoin.
For Layer 1s, $SUI, $APT, $AVAX and $NEAR are on my watchlist for signs of renewed risk appetite.
In DeFi, $AAVE, $UNI, $CRV and $PENDLE can show whether capital is moving back into on-chain activity.
For infrastructure and RWA, $LINK and $ONDO remain important because institutional adoption requires more than simply buying tokens.
Higher-beta sectors such as $TAO, $RENDER and $FET will be useful gauges of speculative appetite, while $ARB and $OP can reveal whether Layer 2 liquidity is returning.
The bigger signal is not simply Bitcoin's correlation with gold.
It is the possibility that market participants are beginning to view $BTC through a broader macro lens: liquidity, monetary debasement, sovereign debt and global capital flows.
But one month of correlation is not enough to declare a structural transformation. Similar divergences from equities have previously proved short-lived.
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue In 2026, the nuclear power industry witnessed a rare scene: the fastest customers driving new reactors began to shift from traditional utility companies to tech giants. In January, Oklo and Meta announced an agreement to develop up to 1.2 GW of advanced nuclear power in Ohio, USA, to supply electricity for future data centers. The International Energy Agency subsequently revealed that conditional power purchase agreements between data center operators and small modular reactor projects increased from 25 GW at the end of 2024 to 45 GW in 2026. Meanwhile, Ontario, Canada, is building four GE Hitachi BWRX-300 units at Darlington, with the first starting construction in May 2025 and aiming to be operational by 2030. AI computing power expansion is pushing nuclear energy from a national-level infrastructure to a strategic resource that enterprises can lock in long-term. The questions are also changing: what will truly be scarce in the future—reactor design, nuclear fuel, engineering capability, or the permit that allows the project to start? From "bigger and bigger" to factory replication Traditional large nuclear power plants usually have a single unit capacity of about 1 GW, requiring huge upfront capital, lengthy approvals, and complex on-site construction. Any delay causes financing costs to snowball. The 1979 Three Mile Island accident, the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, and the 2011 Fukushima accident have long cast regulatory, safety, and public acceptance challenges over the industry. SMRs attempt to adopt a different production logic. The International Atomic Energy Agency typically defines a single module's electric power as not exceeding 300Gold ETFs bought nearly 10 tons overnight! Safe-haven funds are quietly moving in, how much longer will $BTC (Bitcoin) keep pretending to sleep?
Brothers, don’t just focus on the crypto circle, something big is happening with gold—ETFs increased holdings by nearly 10 tons in a single day, this is no small amount, definitely safe-haven funds accelerating their entry. At the same time, the options market volatility is also drawing attention, indicating that big money is hedging against a sneaky CPI.
What does this mean for crypto? Short-term bearish. Gold rising means money is flowing to the safest place, so risk assets naturally get drained. $BTC (Bitcoin) claims to be digital gold, but when panic hits, funds buy real gold first, and Bitcoin just follows tech stocks’ swings.
Don’t expect much from $ETH (Ethereum) either, gas fees are ridiculously low, exchange rates can’t rise, it continues to be a follower of Bitcoin. $BNB (Binance Coin) has buybacks supporting it, making it relatively resistant to drops; $SOL (Solana) is weak without new hotspots. As for $ARB and $OP, these L2s’ revenue stories mean nothing in the face of risk-off sentiment.
The rising options volatility is a signal: smart money is buying protection, not betting on a surge. Before CPI is released, don’t fight gold for the steering wheel, watch lightly, and wait for $BTC (Bitcoin) to give a direction before making moves. Control your hands, don’t be cannon fodder.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
#Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 📊 CONTEXT:
As of September 3, BTC returned to around $77,600, briefly reclaiming multiple key moving averages; however, CoinDesk pointed out that the recent rebound has not been strongly supported by spot capital, with BTC ETFs recording a net outflow of about $236 million, and stablecoin supply temporarily stalled. Meanwhile, market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September have clearly intensified. 🧠 MY VIEW:
I tend to define the current situation as "price leads, capital confirmation lags." The technical structure has improved, but if stablecoins, ETFs, and spot trading cannot keep pace, the higher the breakout goes, the more caution is needed against the market trading on expectations rather than actual capital flows. ⚖️ OTHER SIDE:
On the other hand, BTC has recently broken through multiple medium- and long-term moving averages, and macro risk assets have also shown recovery. If capital is just temporarily waiting for employment data, spot demand could very well return after the breakout is confirmed. 👇 COMMUNITY:
If you could only choose one signal to judge the next phase of BTC's trend, which would you prioritize:
A｜ETF capital flow B｜Stablecoin supply C｜Price structure $BTC $ETH $SOL #LastNFPBeforeFOMC #RobinhoodChainRevenue Gold Funding Fee Arbitrage: An RWA Carry Opportunity Worth Watching
Concept: Long XAU SWAP + Short XAU PERP, offset directional volatility with position size, observe funding cost differences.
Case Parameters: SWAP financing cost about 5.67% APR; a certain platform's XAU PERP short funding fee is 0.0053%/4 hours, roughly 11.6% simple annualized, theoretical net carry about 5.9% APR.
These are data at a specific point in time, not fixed income. Also consider fee changes, spreads, margin, depth, slippage, and asynchronous hedging. I have opened a small observation position and will record updates later.At 19:35 on September 3rd, L2 funds and usage patterns are diverging. As of September 2nd, L2Beat shows Base's TVS at about $12.93 billion, Arbitrum One at about $11.49 billion; Base ranks first among Rollups. However, TVS measures assets secured by L2, which is not the same as TVL within DeFi protocols and cannot be directly equated to user stickiness.
DefiLlama's snapshot is even more interesting: Base's DeFi TVL is about $5.51 billion, with 24-hour DEX spot trading volume of $756 million, 275,000 active addresses, and 9.18 million transactions; Arbitrum's figures are approximately $1.39 billion, $102 million, 112,000 active addresses, and 1.94 million transactions respectively. Looking only at breadth and spot usage, Base clearly leads.
But derivatives tell a different story: Arbitrum's 24-hour perpetual contract volume is $1.526 billion, while Base's is only $185 million. This seems like two different paths: Base is building depth in assets, addresses, and spot trading, while Arbitrum maintains depth in derivatives. The high number of transactions may also be influenced by low costs or bots, which does not necessarily equate to high-quality users.
Would you value TVS and active addresses more, or the transaction structure that can continuously generate fees? If Base's spot volume declines while Arbitrum's perpetual volume holds steady, how should the L2 leader be defined? #Base #Arbitrum #OnChainDataNowadays, in the investment circle, talking about ESG feels like matchmaking based on family background. Back in the day with mining and PoW, the electricity bills were painful, GPUs were overheating, and environmental groups were constantly criticizing carbon emissions. When capital saw this public pressure, the money naturally shifted towards PoS, since staking a few $ETH could make you a validator node, cutting energy consumption by 99%, which sounds very respectable when told.
But don’t be naive, capital isn’t purely trying to save the planet. They’re calculating regulatory risks. If European funds hold high-pollution mining assets, their stock prices would definitely shake when disclosed. So you see new public chains boasting green consensus raise funds noticeably faster, even if performance is similar, institutions are willing to give higher valuations.
Retail investors following this logic should be cautious. Low energy consumption doesn’t mean stable profits; staking lockups on PoS chains can easily create liquidity black holes. My approach is to treat ESG as a bonus factor, not a decision factor. The real money looks at network activity and developer count. If two targets have similar returns, I’d prioritize the PoS one, at least it won’t suddenly get hammered by policy labels in the next few years. As for miners’ shutdown prices, just treat them as a bottom reference for now; the big trend still follows the shift in computing power.Tomorrow night at 8:30 PM, a critical moment, will $BTC surge?
#FOMC last set of data before the meeting: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday
On September 4th, at 8:30 PM Beijing time, the August nonfarm payrolls will be released. This time, rather than rushing to see how many new jobs were added, it might be more important to pay attention to the "previous value revisions" that follow.
In the last report, July employment decreased by 23,000, and May and June were collectively revised down by 103,000. In other words, some jobs that were originally thought to have been added turned out to be fewer after the data was updated. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
This is interesting because if tomorrow night’s new jobs number turns positive, it might look strong at first glance, but with the previous two months being significantly revised down, the overall employment trend may not have truly improved. Focusing only on the headline number might mean missing what the market is really trading on.
For BTC, this kind of result isn’t necessarily directly positive. Cooling employment might ease rate hike expectations, but if the market starts worrying about economic problems, funds might sell crypto first.
So this time, what matters more is whether the improvement in new jobs can withstand revisions and whether wage growth is also cooling down. Deciding whether to hike rates in September based on a single number is a bit hasty.
By the way, this is the last nonfarm payroll report before the rate decision, not the last economic data set; there’s still CPI on September 11th. Even if the direction is guessed right tomorrow night, it’s not yet time to hold positions blindly.My friend has three old houses at home that are empty, can't be sold, and can't be rented out at a high price. He wants to mortgage them for a loan, but the bank doesn't recognize it.
But if the property is split into 10,000 tokens on the blockchain, each corresponding to the income rights of one square meter, the threshold instantly drops from millions to just a few hundred.
This is the most powerful aspect of RWA (Real World Asset) tokenization — breaking up illiquid bulk assets into fragments affordable for ordinary people. Previously, if you wanted to invest in commercial real estate, you couldn't even get close without tens of millions; now you can become a mini landlord with just $500, collecting rent settled daily into your wallet.
Even more disruptive is the trust industry. Traditional trusts charge you a 2% annual management fee and only distribute dividends once every six months. Tokenized assets use smart contracts to automatically execute dividends with almost zero fees, crushing capital efficiency.
But don't rush in; there are many pitfalls. First, how do you put the legal ownership of the underlying asset on the chain? If you lose an off-chain lawsuit, the tokens on-chain are worthless. Second, if the oracle feeding prices is manipulated, your rental income might be converted at the wrong exchange rate.
I've seen a project tokenize US commercial real estate, but the property vacancy rate soared, token prices dropped by 60%, liquidity was poor, and you couldn't even exit.
So my view is: RWA lowers the investment threshold but does not lower the risk threshold.
Small funds can test the waters, but first check the audit reports, verify the custodian's background, and avoid those who hype "guaranteed profits with no losses." Real estate is still real estate, just with a digital skin; due diligence is still essential.Nonfarm August ADP employment increased by only 38,000, expected 48,000, marking the slowest growth since January. Despite such poor data, the US stock market closed higher across the board, ending a three-day losing streak. Is the market crazy? No, it’s just being brutally honest.
US August ADP private sector employment rose by 38,000, far below expectations, and July’s revised figure was only 46,000. The labor market is visibly cooling down. Normally, weak economic data would cause the stock market to fall, but the current script is: the worse the data, the lower the chance of rate hikes, and the higher the stock market rises. Bad news is good news—this logic played out vividly today.
Looking at the 10-year US Treasury yield, it surged intraday to 4.816%, the highest since the end of 2023, then fell back to 4.783% after the ADP data release. The bond market had been worried about the Fed continuing to tighten, pushing borrowing costs to a three-year high and suffocating the stock market. Now, with disappointing employment data, tightening expectations cool off, and the US stock market immediately rebounds strongly. The Dow rose 0.56%, the S&P 500 gained 0.46%, and the Nasdaq increased 0.45%, finally recovering after three days of losses.
The impact on the crypto space is even greater: the US dollar index fell back to 99.51, improving liquidity expectations, theoretically benefiting risk assets. However, BTC remained stagnant today, indicating that funds prefer to first capture the certainty of a rebound in US stocks.
This week’s main event: the nonfarm payroll report. ADP was just an appetizer. If nonfarm payrolls continue to disappoint, rate cut bets will ignite completely, and it would be hard to justify crypto remaining indifferent. $BTC A single day saw liquidations of $390 million and 90,000 retail traders wiped out, but institutions are quietly accumulating
In 24 hours, another 90,000 retail traders were wiped out and $390 million forcibly liquidated, but guess what, institutional ETFs are still seeing net inflows.
CoinGlass shows that in the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $390 million, with longs at $277 million and shorts at $115 million, over 90,000 traders liquidated. Just $ETH alone had a $1.199 billion position instantly liquidated at a neighboring exchange.
On the other hand, capital flows are quietly reversing: BTC spot ETFs had a net outflow of $237 million yesterday, but ETH ETFs +$10.95 million, XRP +$14.38 million, SOL +$10.19 million—institutions are moving into altcoins. The Fear & Greed Index is at 62, still in the "Greed" zone. What does this indicate? Retail traders are being washed out on high leverage, while smart money is buying quality assets at low prices.
My own approach: clear out high-leverage contracts, keep BTC+ETH+OKB spot base positions, and wait for the Nonfarm Payrolls and FOMC to release volatility. The bull market isn't over, but September's "volatility package" is enough for everyone to endure; preserving principal is more important than chasing an extra 30% gain. This week's sudden market risk-off, if Ajian were managing positions, I wouldn't suddenly sell everything off. Instead, I would first significantly reduce the impulse to "make the right judgment immediately," because it is clear that September will bring multiple key macro data and central bank meetings that will determine global asset pricing: September 4 Nonfarm Payrolls, September 10-11 US inflation data, September 15-16 FOMC, September 18 BOJ meeting
This is not a period suitable for going all-in betting on a single macro direction, so I would choose to keep positions, reduce leverage, and wait for the data to provide answers. I would rather earn less for a while than wipe out the entire quarter's risk budget due to one wrong judgment#UNI at $6, are you on the bus or under the bus?
First, look at the surface: positive news bombardment, price surges, retail investors frantically chasing highs.
Up 38% in the past 7 days, doubling directly from the August low near $3. On September 2, it briefly broke through $6.30, hitting an eight-month high. 24-hour trading volume exceeded $1 billion, market cap surged to $3.7 billion. All moving averages are below the price. It’s risen too much, time to take a break.
First thing: Robinhood Chain is the real driver behind this surge.
Launched in July, Robinhood Chain traded $17.99 billion in August, 26% more than July. On September 1 alone, $1.95 billion was traded, with $1.75 billion through Uniswap pools—almost every dollar on-chain is Uniswap’s fee.
Uniswap collected $9.24 million in fees on Robinhood Chain in 24 hours, accounting for the vast majority of all network fees.
Robinhood Chain now generates two-thirds of Uniswap’s total revenue.
Previously, Uniswap earned fees from DeFi players; now it’s earning fees from Wall Street’s RWA.
Second thing: Fee Switch turns UNI from a “voting token” into a “deflationary asset.”
The UNIfication proposal passed in December 2025, officially activating protocol fees. In January 2026, a one-time burn of 100 million UNI occurred, about 16% of total supply. Continuous burns followed—over $300,000 worth of UNI burned every ten days, with an annualized rate close to $160 million. Standard Chartered Bank estimates that at mid-August burn rates, the annualized burn equals about 4% of circulating supply.
On July 27, 2026, Fee Switch was officially activated on V4, daily revenue soared from $118,000 in early July to $318,000.
UNI now has a dual engine of cash flow plus deflation.
Third thing: Technicals are overheated, but what are the whales doing?
Daily RSI is between 78-81, severely overbought. MACD momentum is weakening. Price is far above all moving averages.
Whales are heavily selling—selling pressure at 71%, buying pressure only 20%. Exchange inflows are rising, holdings down 5.7%, capital is flowing out.
Funding rate is -1%, long-short ratio 0.56—shorts are paying longs, market extremely bearish.
Resistance above: 6.20-6.37 → 7.00 → 7.81 (200-week EMA)
Support below: 5.84-5.78 → 5.54-5.59 → 4.62 (EMA20)
Long vs short battle, you decide.
On one side:
Robinhood Chain brings real RWA trading volume, protocol revenue surges
Fee Switch continuously burns UNI, annual burn rate about 4% of circulating supply
Doubled from $3 to $6, trend established
Standard Chartered Bank targets $100 by 2030
On the other side:
Daily RSI 78-81, severely overbought
Whales 71% selling pressure, capital outflow
FOMC meeting on September 15-16, 66% chance of rate hike
If BTC pulls back, high-beta coins like UNI will be hit first
Short-term players:
Don’t chase highs. Wait for a pullback to 5.84-5.78 (preferably with low volume + hammer candlestick) before entering, stop loss at 5.54. Target 6.32-6.50 to take half profits, break 6.50 to aim for 7+.
Swing traders:
Wait for daily close above 6.0 before entering on the right side, stop loss 5.54, target 7-8. If it breaks below 5.78, exit and observe, don’t hold.
Long-term believers:
Dollar-cost average below 5.5. UNI’s fundamentals have changed—from governance token to deflationary asset + cash flow asset. Target 10+ by end of 2026, betting on sustained RWA growth + continued Fee Switch burns.
Short sellers:
If you really want to short, wait for resistance above 6.50 then try a light position, stop loss 6.60.
UNI’s current logic is now the same as BTC in 2023—
From “nobody cares” to “everyone wants it,” it just needs a fundamental turning point.
Fee Switch is that turning point.
UNI rose from 3 to 6, you hesitated for a month. When it really stabilizes at 10, will you still say “I knew it earlier”?
What’s your UNI cost?
At $6, do you dare to get on board?
$BTC $ETH $UNI #FOMC last data set before Friday’s nonfarm payrolls #Robinhood Chain volume surges, ARB revenue narrative heats up
A chain that has been online for only two months has even surpassed the Ethereum mainnet.
ARB took off directly.
It surged over 30% in two days, from 0.084 to around 0.12. After waiting for two years, ARB finally got its own story — the "rent-collecting stock."
Robinhood Chain has started paying the "platform tax."
In two months online, the accumulated fee revenue has reached $13.05 million. At this pace, Arbitrum has already received about $1.3 million in dividends, which annualized could yield $73 million in rent. An L2 ecosystem earning tens of millions annually from rent — who has heard such a story before? ARB has transformed from "governance air" into a "rent-collecting asset," and the market has directly given it a premium.
Of course, there are risks.
On September 16, 92.63 million ARB will be unlocked, worth roughly over $8 million at current prices. Robinhood Chain's current trading volume is still mainly supported by Meme; whether it can solidify into real demand is the key.
But a single-day revenue of $4.45 million, fee income ranks first among all protocols. These two big bullish candles for ARB are the reaction of retail investors seeing "real money finally coming in." ARB's narrative has shifted from "air governance token" to "L2 rent-collecting stock."
What do you think?
$ARB $BTC Saudi crude oil exports have fallen to a 9-year low, causing oil prices to soar
The core logic of the oil market recently is shifting from "how is demand" back to — can supply still come out normally.
Saudi crude oil exports have dropped to multi-year lows, coupled with the ongoing escalation of tensions in the Middle East, market concerns about actual supply disruptions have clearly intensified.
This is also why oil prices have suddenly accelerated recently.
In the latest trading, Brent crude has risen to around $97, marking the fourth consecutive trading day of gains; WTI is also approaching $93. Meanwhile, shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz has been significantly affected, with a sharp decline in the number of commercial vessels passing through the area. 
What is most noteworthy here:
The current rise in oil prices is not just because Saudi Arabia is exporting fewer barrels, but because the market is trading on the possibility of fewer barrels in the future.
If Saudi exports continue to be obstructed, combined with the shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz, the actual globally available crude oil supply will be impacted.
At this point, the market will show a typical feedback loop:
Supply reduction → Inventory expectations decline → Spot premium rises → Oil prices increase.
And rising oil prices bring another problem:
Inflation.
This is precisely what the financial markets are most worried about right now.
Because the Federal Reserve is currently choosing between "inflation not fully coming down" and "employment starting to cool."
If energy prices continue to rise rapidly, the market will worry:
Oil price increase → Inflation rebounds → Fed’s rate cut space shrinks, even expectations for rate hikes rise.
The market has already significantly raised expectations for a rate hike in September, with the latest pricing around 60%. 
So the current rise in oil prices may impact the financial markets far beyond just the energy sector.
It could further transmit through:
Crude oil → Inflation expectations → U.S. Treasury yields → U.S. dollar → Gold/BTC/U.S. stocks.
Of course, rising oil prices should not be simply understood as guaranteed to continue.
Because high oil prices themselves will suppress demand, and OPEC+ still holds some supply adjustment capability. Latest news shows OPEC+ expects to maintain the current October production policy at Sunday’s meeting. 
So what really needs to be observed next is whether geopolitical risks will shift from "emotional shocks" to "sustained supply disruptions."
If it’s just a short-term conflict, oil prices may still fall back after the spike.
But if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to be obstructed and Saudi exports keep declining, the risk premium on oil prices could further expand.
In short: the oil market is now trading not just demand, but supply security. Saudi export declines combined with Middle East shipping risks are causing oil prices to reprice the probability of "supply disruption." $BTC #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 In the next 30 days, I expect BTC to fluctuate widely, but I won't chase it near 80,000, nor will I go completely out of the market just because of a pullback. There was a rebound in August, and with the interest rate decision in September, it’s more reasonable for BTC to oscillate between 72,000 and 85,000.
The 1 million allocation plan: 55% spot (OKB 22, BTC 20, ETH 13), 10% dollar-cost averaging, 12% grid trading, 8% profit-taking coins, 3% contracts just for hedging, 3% options for protection, 4% dual currency to sell on highs, and 5% flexible. Try to hold spot as much as possible. After buying OKB, I will transfer some to an on-chain wallet; this is what I want to keep the most. BTC and ETH will stay on the exchange first for convenient grid trading and averaging down.
Add BTC and OKB near 76,000, reduce a bit at 82,000. If it falls below 72,000, stop grid trading and cut spot positions. If OKB drops to 92, halve the exchange portion but keep the on-chain base holdings untouched.
The only worry is a sudden liquidity withdrawal in September. No all-in, no high leverage.
#OKX Million Planner The night the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out the year before last, $BTC dropped 8% in half an hour, and my phone alarms drained the battery.
At that time, I was fully invested in spot, and my mind went blank. Later I understood that when a black swan event hits, liquidity evaporates instantly, and your stop-loss orders won’t execute at all—they just slide down to the floor price.
Since then, I set three iron rules for myself. First, always keep 20% stablecoins in any exchange account; when disaster strikes, this is your ammo for bottom-fishing or escaping.
Second, diversify asset storage: keep 60% in cold wallets, and 20% each in two different exchanges. If one platform suddenly cuts off or faces a run, you still have a fallback.
Third, preset emergency exit triggers. For example, if $ETH falls below the 200-day moving average and doesn’t recover within three days, unconditionally reduce your position by half. Don’t ask why—just discipline.
I simulated a regulatory negative scenario once: a policy document screenshot spread in the community, and within five minutes the market plunged deeply. My response was to immediately convert spot to stablecoins, then turn off the screen and go to sleep. The next day, after emotions settled, I reassessed.
Making decisions in panic is most likely wrong. Prepare an operation checklist in advance; if something really happens, just follow it and don’t fall into the trap of "waiting a bit longer."
Finally, remember, no single asset should exceed 30% of your total funds. Black swans are unpredictable, but vulnerabilities can be dismantled in advance. BTC is playing a "fake drop" near 77K or is it truly recovering. I think the most important thing now is not to guess the direction, but to confirm the rhythm. Is this market really chasing rallies, oscillations, washing stocks, or a game of gambling? My answer is: early trading is in a recovery phase, but not yet at the stage where you can close your eyes and go in with your eyes closed. $BTC held 77K and $ETH hovered at 2.4K, which seems like a bit of "unable to fall," but not falling doesn't mean it will rise; it just means selling pressure is weakening and buying hasn't truly gained momentum yet. Today, I want to look at the market from the perspective of volatility phases, not just talk about bulls and bears. Let's start with the signals I've seen. ETF data is indeed still flowing in, which shows traditional funds haven't withdrawn after a pullback—this support is quite solid. But on the other hand, on-chain activity hasn't significantly increased, and contract positions aren't extreme—a typical 'recovery but no confirmation' state. From my understanding, the market is trading expectations of a 'deep rebound,' not a 'trend reversal.' $BTC To truly change the landscape, you first need to recover 80K and increase volume. $ETH's problem isn't low prices or weak momentum; what it needs isn't to follow the rally, but to have reasons for independent strengthening. You need to look at the altcoins separately. $HYPE Still waiting for direction, at times like this, the biggest taboo is to exit early or gamble on a breakout. $ZEC's key is whether demand can keep up; supply stories alone won't last long. $TRUMP Still driven by news, with huge volatility, not suitable as a bottom-up position. $BICO These small-cap coins rise quickly but also fall quickly, so watch for profit-taking moves🚨 The non-farm payrolls report hasn't come out tonight, but the market is already starting to panic! The real danger might not be "whether employment is good or not," but that the data is too divergent!
[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
The main course of non-farm payrolls hasn't been served yet, but the appetizer has already stirred the market enough.
Hiring is cooling down, but job vacancies remain as stubborn as the pyramids; wages are still heating up, and layoffs haven't clearly spiraled out of control. The entire job market seems stuck in an awkward position—if you say it's strong, some data is worsening; if you say it's weak, there's not enough evidence of cooling.
Pharaoh gets straight to the point: the more the data conflicts, the harder it is for the Fed to find a clear reason to cut rates.
And if the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields keep surging, BTC, this "sentiment amplifier," will most likely take a couple of hits first.
So tonight, don't just focus on the new non-farm payroll numbers; the three things truly worth watching are:
#DailyOrbit Japanese listed company Remixpoint recently made a very thorough decision.
They sold all ETH, SOL, XRP, and DOGE in one go, cashing out approximately ¥879 million, ultimately retaining only about 1,506 BTC. The entire transaction yielded a profit of about ¥117.8 million, with only DOGE sold at a loss.
What’s truly worth noting here isn’t that the company is bullish on BTC.
It’s that they directly abandoned multi-asset allocation.
ETH, SOL, and XRP were all profitable, yet they sold them. Even ETH and SOL, which can generate staking rewards, were cleared out to switch to a more singular BTC strategy.
This actually reflects a very practical shift:
When institutions start managing their own balance sheets, they don’t consider which coin is the most attractive, but which asset is best suited for long-term holding.
The market likes narratives.
But what companies ultimately focus on are risk, liquidity, and capital efficiency.
$BTC $ETH $SOL This week, the market will welcome the US August nonfarm payroll report. Compared to the past few months, this time the importance of nonfarm payrolls is significantly higher because the market's pricing for a September rate hike is already close to 70%, and the employment data will directly determine whether this round of hawkish expectations can continue to strengthen.
Currently, the US labor market has a rather peculiar contradiction: new job additions have clearly slowed down, but the unemployment rate and layoff data remain stable. Over the past 12 months, the US has added an average of about 26,000 jobs per month, and in the last 3 months, only about 20,000, yet the unemployment rate still holds around 4.1%, and initial jobless claims remain low. Meanwhile, the latest ADP private employment data also...
Under normal circumstances, such employment growth would already be enough for the market to start worrying about a weakening labor market, but at Jackson Hole, Walsh actually preemptively changed the market's way of interpreting nonfarm payrolls. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $BTC $ETH $SOL $SPCX SpaceX's base expansion this time is not really about "how big" it is, but that it is paving the way for Starship's high-frequency launches in advance.
Once entering the high-frequency launch phase in the future, rockets, energy, fuel, satellites, communications, data centers, and other supporting facilities will all need to expand simultaneously.
This means commercial spaceflight is moving from "building rockets" toward **scaling up and industrialization.
Simply put: Starship is just the beginning; the aerospace industry chain behind it is the real space for imagination.
The rocket is about to take off～✈️
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 Twenty-one top global financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, UBS, and Mitsubishi UFG, recently announced plans to establish a joint venture in the second half of 2026, and to first issue a US dollar stablecoin in early 2027, followed by expansion to the euro and other G7 currencies. This layout targets cross-border payments, institutional clearing, and digital asset settlement scenarios, targeting both wholesale and retail 🌐 clients. The background of this move is worth a closer look. Currently, the total global stablecoin market capitalization is about $301 billion, with USDT accounting for about $183.3 billion and USDC about $73.3 billion. Banking giants are clearly not here to test the waters, but to carve out a share of this rapidly growing market pie. In terms of timing, the U.S. GENIUS Act was signed in July 2025 and will officially take effect in January 2027, with strict requirements for reserve assets and audit isolation. For pure crypto issuers, this is like putting on a tight shackle; But for banks with deposit licenses and clearing networks, it is a natural compliance barrier, effectively preventing their deposit business from being eaten away by foreign stablecoins. Another practical pressure is capital outflow. According to Standard Chartered estimates, stablecoins may absorb about $500 billion worth of US bank deposits. If banks do not proactively issue them, customers will use others' dollar instruments for cross-border transfers and on-chain payments. Going it alone is also not feasible; Société Générale previously issued only about $12.5 million in dollar stablecoin circulation, almost negligible. Because of this, the number expanded from 10 banks last OctoberNon-farm payrolls are coming soon
Can $BTC drop significantly again?
The bears are eagerly waiting
Non-farm data is expected to only raise rate hike expectations
The bulls are quickly surrendering
This position was opened at 78921
Now around 77800
Unrealized profit is already over 900 U
Friday's data is the real watershed
The probability of a rate hike in September is still above 60%
And the big coin's rebound has always lacked spot capital support
As long as employment data isn't ridiculously weak
Interest rate pressure will be hard to disappear
If 77000 is lost again
76000 will have to come out to catch the fall
$SPCX is quite strong though
Stock price pulled back near 140
Oppenheimer even raised the target to 280
Now it's not just rockets being hyped
AI computing power is the new story
I'm not in a hurry to be bearish on $SNDK either
It and Kioxia plan to invest over $31 billion in expansion by 2032
The AI storage demand line is still intact
So tonight I'll be watching $BTC
If non-farm doesn't favor the bulls
Shorts keep eating!
#EarningsObserver: Broadcom beats expectations, Snowflake raises guidance
#LastDataBeforeFOMC: This Friday's non-farm $BTC $ETH $SOL This week's non-farm payrolls may be the last set of national employment data before the September rate-setting meeting. According to the current macro framework, the market needs risk-free and weakening employment data to reduce the probability of a September rate hike.
While everyone is focused on tomorrow's employment data, tonight's non-manufacturing ISM PMI data is also one of the hidden key points and should not be overlooked.
Tuesday's manufacturing ISM data showed a combination of slowing growth, weakening employment, and sticky price indices, which only increases market concerns about the current U.S. economy. Tonight's services ISM data is even more important.
As the pillar of the U.S. economy, if the services data continues to show slowing growth, weakening employment, and stable and sticky price indices, it will further increase expectations of mild stagflation. Especially since the current national crude oil price has stabilized above $95, forming an unfavorable combination of mild stagflation expectations and future inflation concerns. This will increase the probability of a September rate hike and suppress risk assets.
To reduce the probability of a September rate hike in the current high oil price environment, tonight's ISM index needs to show a combination of weak growth, weak employment, and a significant drop in the price index. This would ease mild stagflation expectations and allow the economy to return to a soft landing expectation, effectively reducing the chance of a September rate hike.
For the market, whether to trade mild stagflation depends on the bond market, especially the 2-year yield. Mild stagflation expectations will push up the probability of rate hikes, driving the 2-year yield higher. Next, the 10-year yield will slightly follow, while the 30-year yield remains relatively stable or even slightly weak. On the eve of the non-farm payrolls, funds collectively lie flat and do nothing. Everyone's eyes are fixed on Friday night's non-farm data. After the ADP small non-farm data was released, the market immediately froze. BTC is hovering around 77000, unable to break upwards or fall deeply downwards. Many funds simply choose to stay put, unwilling to bet on size in advance. Currently, two opposing forces are at play in the market. First, the ADP employment data is very poor. New jobs added are only 38,000, the lowest since January this year. With employment cooling down, theoretically the Fed's motivation to raise interest rates weakens, which is good for the crypto space. But on the other hand, the Middle East situation has pushed oil prices above $90. With oil prices continuing to surge, inflationary pressure returns. Even if employment is weak, oil prices push inflation up, and the Fed may still choose to raise rates. One side brings good news, the other side brings bad news, and the two forces pull against each other. The upward momentum brought by the good news is directly offset by the negative impact of oil prices. This is also the real reason why BTC did not rise at all after the ADP data was released. Whether retail or institutional investors, no one wants to heavily bet on direction now. If Friday's non-farm data also weakens and rate hike expectations cool down, the market will have a chance to recover and rebound. If the non-farm data is strong and oil prices remain high, the probability of a rate hike in September will continue to rise, and the market will remain under pressure. Non-farm payrolls are always highly volatile, so there is no need to heavily bet in advance. It is much safer to patiently wait for the results to come out before making plans. 4h liquidation ranking (19:13 September 3) ⚠️ Information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice It can be made more impactful by explaining the transmission chain “Geopolitics → Oil Prices → Inflation → Interest Rate Hikes → BTC” more smoothly:
⚠️ Geopolitical conflicts are still escalating, and the pressure on $BTC actually comes from more than just “risk-off sentiment.”
Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports in August suddenly dropped to about 3 million barrels per day, the lowest since 2017. Oil prices rose accordingly, with Brent surpassing $95 and WTI approaching $91.
What’s truly worth watching is this chain:
🛢️ Rising oil prices
→ 🔥 Heating inflation expectations
→ 📈 Rising interest rate hike expectations
→ 💵 Dollar/U.S. Treasury yields pressuring risk assets
→ 🟠 $BTC’s upside potential being suppressed
So this round of geopolitical risk may impact BTC more directly not through “war = risk-off,” but through energy prices → inflation → monetary policy expectations.
If oil prices keep surging, how much longer can BTC hold? 👀 If you want, I can also compress this into a version that feels more like a popular, interactive short post on OKX.#OKX预言家：European giants clash, F1 Italian Grand Prix prediction underway #SEC拟更新转让代理规则，证券上链受关注
$BTC $ETH
Thirty years on the east side of the river, thirty years on the west side,
Fortunes turn like a waterwheel, never underestimate the youth in poverty.
Wealth is sought in risk, but also lost in risk.
Gain happens one-tenth of the time, loss nine-tenths.
One day in crypto is like a year in the human world.
Back to the main topic, how should we view the crypto market now? Not discussing specific prices, just what the market is experiencing.
What makes this cycle different from the past is that pricing power has shifted from retail sentiment to several types of institutional funds, but their logics are not unified. On the BTC side, buyers come from two independent channels: one is spot ETFs, whose pace has shifted from aggressive buying last year to data-driven dollar-cost averaging, with advancing one day and retreating the next being normal; the other is the treasuries of listed companies like Strategy and BitMine, which convert financing into on-chain holdings weekly, ignoring daily charts and support levels, focusing only on long-term balance sheet allocation. So BTC’s current market character is—short-term pricing driven by macro expectations, mid-term supported by a chip structure of "ETF repeated buying + treasury only accumulating," making it less like a high-volatility risk asset and more like a reserve asset slowly locked into allocation pools by institutions.
One day in crypto is like a year in the human world, but where the money comes from, where it gathers, who is locking it, who is withdrawing—these slow variables are the underlying logic that holds true year after year.
$SOL BTC rose by 15,000 points, but many people's accounts actually shrank. Who is this rally really rewarding? Have you noticed that from August 17 until now, BTC climbed from 62,000 yuan all the way to a high of 81,000 yuan, then fell back to around 77,000 yuan today? Half a month covers the path of the past half, with daily gains of 1,000 points, and the candlestick chart looks textbook-like. But fewer and fewer people post profitable orders in their social circles, while more and more people lament missing out. I flipped through my trading records and discovered a somewhat painful fact. In this rally, the real profits aren't those who shout daily orders, but those who treat position management as a belief. On the surface, it looks like a BTC frenzy, but at the bottom it's a brutal position elimination battle. The faster the rise, the faster leveraged accounts die, because once volatility amplifies, any pullback could cause you to exit early. What is the market trading? I believe it is pricing in "liquidity easing expectations" and "institutional year-end allocation demands" in advance. But there is a detail that has been overlooked: during BTC's fall from 81,000 to 77,000, the decline of altcoins was generally more than twice that of BTC. This indicates that funds are not spilling over to smaller coins but rather concentrated at the top tiers. The underlying tone of this rally is risk-averse buying, not a full return of risk appetite. The bullish path is clear: - As long as the Fed maintains a dovish stance and BTC holds the 75,000 support level, the next target is likely near previous highs. - On-chain data shows whale addresses showing signs of increasing holdings in the past 48 hours, indicating long-term capital is still accumulating. Bearish sentimentLong and Short Crowding List
The biggest fear in crowding is that costs continue to rise while prices stall; the misalignment between price and position is more important than the absolute rate.
$CP current rate -0.1144%, settled -0.218% in the past 24 hours, at the 20th percentile of recent samples. Expansion of positions during a decline, selling pressure is accompanied by new positions, but open interest alone cannot confirm the short position direction. The short side pays fees, price and open interest still trending down, crowding still responsive; the signal of change is when new positions fail to push to new lows. There are only 5 settlement points in the historical sample, so the percentile is only for reference.
$EDGE current rate -0.0142%, settled -0.016% in the past 24 hours, at the 1st percentile of recent samples. Price and open interest both increased over 15 minutes, market heat is transmitting to position expansion. Negative rates did not lead to a decline; instead, there was an increase in price and positions, showing visible short-side pressure.
$USELESS current rate -0.0142%, settled -0.163% in the past 24 hours, at the 12th percentile of recent samples. Price and positions increased over 15 minutes, leverage risk exposure is increasing during this upward movement. Price and open interest rise synchronously, while the rate remains negative, this misalignment is more sensitive to shorts.This version can be adjusted to sound more like a capital flow interpretation + market sentiment judgment, with a faster pace:
$BTC spot ETFs are still seeing inflows, but the momentum... is indeed a bit lukewarm.
Yesterday, the net inflow of spot BTC ETFs was about $101 million, with BlackRock continuing to lead, contributing over $100 million alone. Institutions are still buying, that hasn't changed.
But on the other hand, Grayscale's capital flow is a bit interesting:
Mini BTC is coming in, GBTC is going out.
One side is switching vehicles, the other is getting off.
So overall, ETF funds haven't clearly retreated yet, but the incremental amount isn't particularly strong.
What’s more worth noting is:
Money is still coming in, but BTC hasn't moved much.
This indicates that the current market selling pressure remains significant, with institutional buying digesting profit-taking and portfolio rotation funds.
So don't rush to be bullish just because of ETF net inflows.
The real signal is: sustained ETF capital inflow + BTC volume breakout.
Until then, keep holding on.
Friday's non-farm payrolls are the real big test coming up. 👀
$BTC
#LastDataBeforeFOMC #ThisFridayNonFarm #GoldETF #Broadcom #Snowflake