Orbit Post Sitemap
Yesterday's trend met expectations, first with high-level oscillations, with Kong and Duo cutting 880 points and 560 points respectively. After the oscillation, the weakness continued, with two Dan Kong cutting 1300 points and 1200 points respectively. A short 600 points was cut at the low point in the early morning, and one Dan was already cut during the day. For those chasing Duo, it means completely ignoring the trend structure; the obvious posture is a downward shift in the high point, so chasing Duo at a high level can only be said to like chasing rises and killing falls. This is not suitable for oscillating range structures, but suitable for one-sided trends, but it has long been said here that there is no short-term one-sided trend, so what is the difference from giving away.
From the market perspective, after the fifth surge and fall last week, the weekend oscillated and consolidated to recover some of the losses, followed by box oscillations, but the high points have been moving downward, and the low points have also moved downward. The trend structure is weak, and the parallel bottom below has been broken. The Kong head has continuity and will retest the previous low point around 755. Once broken, there is still room to go down, with a depth estimated between 750 and 730. So the continued high Kong remains unchanged, and wait to Duo near the support level based on strength.
In the early morning, Kong near 772 to 775, first look at around 760 to 756. $BTC $ETH $SOL #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Green boards can lie. When DeFi primitives bounce on thin spot turnover, it rarely means fresh capital has arrived. Here is what the tape is actually showing beneath the surface: Price Action & Market Structure CRV (+8.44% at $0.3674) and CVX (+8.22% at $2.423) are leading the board, followed by W (+7.09%), SKY (+6.98%), and ENA (+5.46%). Structurally, most of these names are printing lower timeframe mean reversion bounces inside larger corrective downtrends. This is not expansionary momentum yeSince the opening in September 2026, Bitcoin has dropped 1%
Falling back below $78,000, traders are weighing a new wave of macroeconomic pressure against the momentum accumulated last month
The market widely predicts a 66% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike, hence "Rektember" dipping below $78,000
August was the strongest monthly performance for $BTC since November 2024, rising about 25%
Also the best August performance since 2017
According to relevant market strategists, from the calendar itself, this will be a resistance
Because since 2013, September has been the weakest month on average for $BTC, with an average loss of about 3%, and only five monthly gains
#美财长贝森特会谈日方，外汇与加息受关注 The hawkish signals released by Waller at Jackson Hole are still fermenting, and Federal Reserve Governor Barr has clearly stated that if inflation does not cool sufficiently, decisive rate hikes should be implemented. Two senior officials have consecutively sent signals, sharply increasing pressure for the September meeting. Tonight, let's discuss whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates: The hawkish voices within the Fed are further strengthening. Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said on Tuesday that if inflation does not show a sufficiently clear cooling, the Fed should decisively raise rates. This means that against the backdrop of inflation persistently above the 2% target, Barr has shifted from his previous stance supporting holding rates steady in July to being more open to future rate hikes. Barr pointed out that if data trends convince him that inflation is moving toward the 2% target, the Fed can "take a little more time" to assess policy stance; but if inflation does not cool at a sufficient pace, "decisive rate hikes should be implemented." This statement is especially noteworthy because Barr is a Fed Governor and a permanent voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). His change in stance is not only a personal view but also indicates that the internal Fed support for "only continuing to hold steady if inflation further improves" is expanding. Barr said that U.S. consumer spending remains resilient, but inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target for five consecutive years. Measured by the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the overall U.S. inflation rate rose 3.7% year-over-year, with core inflation excluding food and energy at 3.3%. Previously, the Fed's main$UNITREE I didn't expect to break even, but it directly brought me profits, this service is top-notch 🙏
In the early session when the price was just smashed, UNITREE dropped sharply, but the trading volume wasn't actually large, though the sell orders kept pressing down. I judged this wasn't the bottom, just the soil loosening at the start, so I followed the trend and shorted.
Now the short entered at 84.29, 84.29 is already in place, +262.14% pocketed. After enduring for so long, it wasn't in vain, today I can have a good meal 🍜
Profits without arrogance, drawdown without despair. First take 80% off the table, move the stop loss of the remaining 20% to the cost price, if it dips deeper let the profit run, and if it rebounds I won't be greedy for the last bit. The premise of compounding is survival; the shortcut to getting rich is often going to zero.
If you haven't gotten on board, don't rush, wait for the new structure to appear. The market isn't short of opportunities, it's patience that's lacking, the market happens every day, surviving means there's a next round.
$BTC $DOGE 【What should you really study when $BTC falls?】
Today the crypto market pulled back, and BTC dropped back below around $80,000.
Many people's first reaction to the drop is:
"Can it fall even further?"
But I focus more on another question:
Which projects' fundamentals have not deteriorated along with the price?
Because a price drop does not necessarily mean a decrease in value.
When researching a token, I separate:
Price Change
and
Fundamental Change
If the price drops 20%, but:
User growth
Transaction volume
Protocol revenue
TVL
Liquidity
are still growing,
then the price drop may just be a market re-pricing.
But if the price drop is accompanied by:
User decline
Transaction volume decline
Revenue decline
TVL decline
Capital outflow
then this is not just simple price volatility, but possibly a deterioration of fundamentals.
September requires special attention to:
Token Unlocks.
This month is expected to see a large amount of tokens entering the market, with about **$1.5B new supply in the first week alone, including about $797M of HYPE**.
So when researching small-cap tokens now, I especially calculate:
Unlock / Circulating Supply
and:
Demand Growth / Supply Growth
What really matters is not:
"Will the unlock crash the market?"
But rather:
> How much new supply is added?
>
> How much real demand is increasing?
>
> Who received these tokens?
>
> Does the market have enough liquidity to absorb it?
Meanwhile, regulation is continuing to become institutionalized.
The US SEC has proposed the Regulation Crypto Assets framework, providing clearer regulatory paths for some crypto asset financing and investment contracts.
This means future crypto competition may increasingly shift from:
Stories and sentiment
to:
Users + Capital + Transaction volume + Revenue + Compliance capability.
So now when I research a token, I pay more and more attention to a simple logic:
Price → Usage → Revenue → Value Capture
If the price falls but the latter four still grow,
I will continue researching.
If the price rises but the latter four continue to decline,
I will be more cautious.
Price tells you what the market thinks.
Data tells you why the market thinks so.
This is what I believe is the truly worthwhile crypto investment approach.
Don’t just watch the price.
Watch what is happening underneath it.
Personal market research and opinions only. Not financial advice.📊 $SUI Liquidation Flash Report (September 1)
An extreme short squeeze started the session, with longs violently reversing by 155x over 4 hours before steadily exhausting down to 4.5x — the short squeeze momentum collapsed from nuclear level to avalanche, and shorts clawed back by the close.
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $22,500 $22,500 $0
4 hours $256,700 $255,100 $1,641.06
12 hours $429,400 $370,200 $59,200
24 hours $572,700 $467,900 $104,800
From the SUI liquidation data, shorts monopolized all liquidations in the 1-hour window, with long liquidations at $22,500 and shorts at zero, indicating an extreme short squeeze start; the 4-hour direction completely reversed — **longs violently overtook by 155x**, surging to $256,700, igniting a nuclear-level short squeeze; at 12 hours, the long advantage sharply dropped to **6.25x**, with volume rising to $429,400, momentum collapsing like an avalanche; at 24 hours, the long advantage further declined to **4.46x** at close, with long liquidations at $467,900 versus shorts at $104,800, totaling $572,700 in liquidations. The long multiplier fell from 155x → 6.25x → 4.46x, showing a cliff-like continuous exhaustion trajectory. The 12-hour liquidations accounted for 75% of the 24-hour total, indicating a moderately high concentration. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x, and when direction is unclear, watch more and trade less.
🔥 Market Barometer | September 1
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Wash's hawkish stance is about to face the ultimate test from employment data; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under the "fiat credit revaluation"; and Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify the sustainability of AI hardware returns.
📊 Nonfarm Payrolls Friday Debut: Can Wash's "Hawk" Withstand the Data "Blade"?
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm payroll report will be released. Reuters surveys expect an increase of 58,000 jobs, with unemployment steady at 4.1%; ING economists expect about 65,000 new jobs. July nonfarm unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and May and June were revised down by a total of 103,000.
Last week, Fed Chair Wash delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, clearly stating that if inflation does not "fall clearly and fast enough" to the 2% target, the Fed "still has work to do." CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike surged from about 35% before the speech to 66.1%. Citi economists believe there was no consensus for a rate hike at the July FOMC, and cooling inflation and slowing hiring mean hikes are unlikely this year. If this week's data weakens again, the 66% hike expectation could quickly collapse.
₿ BTC High Volatility: Gold Linkage Hits Record High, $7 Billion Flows into ETFs
Bitcoin rose 28% in August, briefly surpassing $81,000, but fell under pressure after Wash's hawkish speech, currently oscillating between $77,000-$78,000.
The 90-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold hit a record high, with the 30-day indicator reaching a yearly peak of 0.8. This shift is driven by the "fiat credit revaluation" — US Treasury debt surpassing $40 trillion, investors no longer choosing between gold and Bitcoin but buying both "non-government credit assets" simultaneously. Over the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion inflow. SPDR Gold ETF attracted nearly $3.4 billion, and BlackRock Bitcoin ETF attracted $1.5 billion. Bitcoin is completing its role shift from "tech asset" to "digital gold."
🖥️ Broadcom and Dell Take Over: AI Hardware Returns Face New Test
Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of tests this week.
Dell led by releasing better-than-expected earnings after market close on September 1: Q2 revenue of $46.97 billion, far exceeding the expected $44.92 billion; AI-optimized server revenue of $16.4 billion, also beating expectations; the company significantly raised its full-year AI server sales forecast to $74 billion. Shares rose 5% after hours.
Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. Analysts expect revenue of $29.43 billion, up 84.5% year-over-year; EPS of $2.55, up 199.5%. Key market variables include whether the $16 billion AI semiconductor target can be met and whether Google's custom chip orders will be diverted due to Marvell's involvement.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: This Friday's nonfarm payrolls will test Wash's hawkish "still has work to do" stance — if employment weakens again, the 66% rate hike expectation may quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under the "fiat credit revaluation," with a record $7 billion ETF inflow and correlation hitting a record high; Dell has proven with better-than-expected earnings that AI server demand is still booming, and Broadcom will take over tonight for verification.
As employment data, macro narratives, and AI earnings converge in the same week — the market awaits the final answer on September 4. Meanwhile, SUI liquidation data sends a clear signal: after a 155x violent reversal, the multiplier collapsed to 4.5x, indicating the short squeeze was just an adrenaline shot with no sustained offensive ammunition. The big direction still depends on the nonfarm outcome. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 $UNI/USDT: 8.75% growth in 24 hours — impressive. But +0.0100% funding still pulls the market sideways. How much longer will new longs keep paying?
24h range 69% shows volatility. If the amplitude persists, who will pull harder: the bulls going into the red or the bears clinging to the peaks?Just saw a set of liquidation data; people who lost 100,000 U have trading habits exactly the same as that "Air Force Commander." Is someone imitating his trades, or is it simply the same human nature repeatedly making the same mistakes? At dawn, I came across a set of on-chain liquidation records: three short positions with a total loss exceeding 100,000 USD, all following an extremely uniform playstyle: large positions, high leverage, and stubbornly holding without stop-loss. The BTC short was opened at 74,574, forced liquidated at 77,265, 3.8 BTC, losing 17,000 U; ETH was even worse, entered at 2,384, liquidated at 2,483, over two hundred coins, 10x leverage, single loss of 41,000 U, with a drawdown of up to 41%; XRP short at 1.3943, liquidation price 1.4594, less than 7 points away, position of 300,000 coins, 40,000 U evaporated instantly. The interesting part is that the style of these three trades is almost copy-paste. All-in on full positions, adding to losing positions, never admitting defeat, with the catchphrase always being "short the whole world." But the most abnormal is the ETH trade, which was actively cut when losing 41%. This is not his character; he is always either liquidated or holding until dawn. This subtle deviation makes me think it’s more like a follower who treats him as a belief, gambling with his method. On the surface, this is a liquidation accident, but what’s worth pondering is the market sentiment signal behind it. When even the most determined short representatives start getting liquidated, it indicates that the current price has pushed the short-term bearish forces into a corner. Shorts being repeatedly slapped in the face often means the trend’s continuity remains, at least until newBrothers, we talked about $ETH Ethereum earlier, now let's talk about $BTC Bitcoin.
After this round of deep pullback, the bearish momentum has basically been mostly released, now it depends on whether the key support below can hold.
The major bullish trend is still intact and has not been broken. If the short-term can stop falling and stabilize, we can definitely play for a rebound recovery later.
Strategy idea:
Mainly buy the dip at low levels and follow the trend to catch the rebound. If there is no major one-sided market, treat it as a range-bound market and don't be greedy.
- Bitcoin: Buy near 76300-76800 on stabilization after pullback, short-term target is 78500-79000, if broken, continue to look near 80000. $SOL #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Have you noticed that $ZEC now looks a lot like it did at 700?
The good news has passed, the market isn't pulling up anymore, it's just sideways. It can't rise, it can't fall through, it's just hanging on by a thread.
Back when it was sideways at 700, many people shouted "the longer the sideways, the higher the vertical," but what happened?
The vertical did happen, but it went downwards. Now it's sideways again above 800, history won't simply repeat, but it's always strikingly similar.
I went back to check the news. Grayscale's ZCSH spot ETF officially launched on the NYSE on August 25. Before the launch, ZEC was pulled from 500 to 850, a 65% increase.
Those who were supposed to enter the market have already done so; the rest are just waiting to sell. $SNDK $DOGE $ZEC is really strong this time.
As of September 1st, ZEC has reached around $840, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $560 million. The recent surge peaked near $870, bringing the price back to the high range not seen since 2018.
There are several clear catalysts behind this rally.
Grayscale's Zcash ETF started trading on August 25th, with the fund's assets under management at about $304 million on the first day. Institutional funds now have a more direct channel to allocate ZEC, and the privacy sector's capital story has been brought back into the market spotlight.
There are also changes on-chain.
Currently, the Zcash Shielded Pool holds about 3.84 million ZEC, and the proportion of privacy transactions once reached a relatively high level, indicating that Zcash's core privacy features are still in use.
However, at this point, we can't just look at the price increase.
ZEC has risen a lot in a short time; futures trading volume once reached the $4.5 billion level, showing clear activity from leveraged funds. The higher the price goes, the more volatility tends to amplify.
So the key focus next is whether it can continue to break through around $870.
If it holds with strong volume, $1000 will naturally become the next key level for market discussion.
If high-level trading volume starts to shrink and the price falls back below $800, we need to watch out for concentrated profit-taking.
The story of $ZEC has now evolved from simply being a “privacy coin” to a market driven by ETFs, institutional funds, privacy demand, and supply structure together. All three long positions are green, yet the account shows a subtle sense of absurdity. A trader's real account record reveals that the $BICO 10x long position yield is 16.63%, with a profit of only 0.38U; the $0G 20x long position surged by 122.27%, but the actual gain was just 1.26U. The real profit driver is the $ETH 20x short position, earning 33.82U, but with a margin of 1231.58U, the actual yield is only 2.74%, totaling less than 36 dollars.
Leverage amplifies the multiples but fails to amplify the tangible cash-in feeling. The small coin yields seem explosive, but due to the tiny position size, the profits are razor-thin; mainstream coin positions are heavy, and the returns barely cover the mental fatigue of monitoring the market. This "high leverage, low position" combination essentially trades extremely high risk for nearly risk-free financial returns.
What’s more noteworthy is that contract profits are denominated in USDT, while most people judge success by yield percentage, and this mismatch easily creates the illusion of "making a lot." Traders jokingly say they work for free for exchanges, which is actually a true reflection of many ordinary players in the leverage game: the conversion between risk and reward often tests one’s mindset more than the candlestick charts. Closing small positions and returning to rational position management might be the best "palate cleanser" to go with this fried chicken.
Risk warning: Leveraged trading is highly volatile; profits and losses share the same source. Please carefully assess your own risk tolerance.Originally, I just wanted to grab a quick breakfast, but the market ended up giving me dumplings for half a year. Last night before bed, I was still hesitating whether to chase, but this morning when I opened the market, looking at the trend, I didn’t even need to think—the account was dancing on its own. When everyone was watching cautiously at midnight yesterday, I saw the support wasn’t broken and the bottom was consolidating steadily, so I shouted out, "Don’t panic." $LIT climbed from 2.9031 all the way to 3.6245, a return of +1242.29%. Although the gains came slowly, once you bite into it, it’s really satisfying, brothers. The position management was simple: first take profit on 75%, then move the stop loss on the remaining 25% to the cost price. If it keeps rising, let the profits run; if it falls back, don’t let the gains turn sour. The market is to be waited for, profits are to be held for. For friends who haven’t gotten on board yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush in; chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. There will be more opportunities later; wait for the next signal before making a move.
$BTC $DOGE $BTC reached $81K last week, the highest price in the past three months,
This slight pullback is mainly due to profit-taking,
Now, it looks like a tug-of-war between a bit of consolidation and the next rally.
The area just below $80K is the real battleground. If buyers can hold there, the next major resistance is around $82K–$83K.
If that area is convincingly broken, it could open a relatively clear path toward $90K and eventually $100K.
There is a reason $ETH is consolidating.
Large liquidity is stacked just above the $2.5K–$2.6K range.
This makes the upside look more attractive.
But I won’t get too excited until ETH truly breaks above $2.5K.
However, if it falls below $2.4K, it could trigger the opposite move.On the chessboard, this move is called the "Queen's Wing Pawn Sacrifice," but Wall Street's version is: you first see five moves ahead, and your opponent can only count cash among the pieces you sacrificed.
During those three days and nights at the end of August, Strategy seemed to be grinding down the opponent's king in the endgame—exchanging 4,603 bitcoins for $370 million in chips, at the cost of printing new shares to thicken its own castle walls. Now its pawn line has stacked up to 845,100 coins, each step forward compressing the short sellers' space to operate. But a true grandmaster would tell you: the middle game of this match has only just begun. The fiercer the exchanges, the more scattered the formation; while most eyes are on your knight's leg, your rook has already slid along the open file to the opponent's back rank.
BitMine is taking a different flank attack. With 53,500 Ethereum in the treasury and a total force of 5,901,100 coins, of which 5,067,300 are staked for solid defense, generating an annual interest of 335 million—that's like installing a logistics engine that never stops. One uses equity financing to charge the king's wing; the other forges an iron shield with staking yields. Essentially, both are betting on "on-paper asset inflation" to secure liquidity for the next twenty moves. But do you know? When all players think they are playing a grand game, the board itself is trembling.
Their king is not fully protected. Dilution is the opponent quietly moving your pawns; concentration is all your pieces crowded on the same diagonal; and volatility is the ticking clock moving relentlessly on your neural pathways. No matter how far you calculate, you can't withstand a "five-piece chain" exchange storm—each net asset value shattered into fragments within the stock price. When the market votes with price, even castling on the king's wing can be seen as a reckless rook sacrifice.
I've seen too many beautiful betas, as tempting as traps in the opening. But the real question mark is always hidden in the actual settlement of the endgame: when your chips are numbers exchanged for stocks, and your "king's safety" depends on whether others are willing to keep trading with you, who will fill the holes beneath the board?
So please look at this move—rear in front, rook behind, a triple pawn chain pressing over the center line. You think this is an attack? No, this is just letting your opponent see that after your calculated twenty moves, he has no choice. #CryptoTreasuryBuying The short squeeze in the crypto market over the past week has been brutal: Bitcoin surged straight from around $62,000 to break through $77,000, forcing the liquidation of $3 billion in leveraged shorts within three days, with over 170,000 traders liquidated and exiting the market. Amid the wails of short sellers being liquidated, a set of on-chain data stands out: Abraxas Capital, Fasanara Capital, and Wintermute collectively hold short positions of 138,569 ETH (approximately $338 million) and 3,425 BTC (approximately $265 million) on Hyperliquid, with a total scale exceeding $600 million. These positions are not only completely intact, but their liquidation prices are also far above the current market price.
Many on social media have jumped on the narrative of “whales collectively bearish, crash imminent,” but the truth is quite the opposite.
1. The truth about the $600 million “short” positions: not a directional bet, but hedging arbitrage
On-chain data quickly dispels the misunderstanding of “whales bearish.” Arkham Intelligence data shows that Abraxas Capital alone withdrew 73,872 ETH, worth about $173 million, from Binance within four days.
Building large short positions in the derivatives market while accumulating equivalent amounts in the spot market is clearly not a one-sided bearish operation,🔥 $BTC | THEY CAN PRINT MONEY. THEY CAN’T PRINT BTC.
Bitcoin’s supply stays capped at 21 million, regardless of how much liquidity enters the system.$BTC
The deeper thesis:
When money can be expanded, fixed supply becomes the scarce asset.
That’s where Bitcoin’s long-term value starts. 🔥$BTC
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation 📊 $SKHYNIX Contract Liquidation Express (September 1)
The bears started with extreme crushing pressure, the bulls violently reversed control within 4 hours and maintained dominance, with leverage dropping from 7.3x steadily down to 3.8x — the short squeeze momentum gradually declined, and bears began to claw back near the close.
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $216.63 $216.63 $0
4 hours $126,800 $111,500 $15,300
12 hours $198,200 $152,300 $45,900
24 hours $1,007,500 $798,100 $209,400
From SKHYNIX liquidation data, the 1-hour period was monopolized by shorts with all liquidations, longs liquidated $216.63 while shorts were zero, indicating an extreme crushing start to the short squeeze but with very small volume; at 4 hours the direction reversed — **bulls violently overtook with 7.3x leverage**, volume surged to $126,800; at 12 hours the bulls' advantage narrowed to **3.3x**, volume rose to $198,200, momentum clearly slowed; at 24 hours the bulls' advantage slightly rebounded to **3.8x** at close, with long liquidations at $798,100 versus shorts at $209,400, cumulative liquidations exceeded $1 million. Bull leverage went from 7.3x → 3.3x → 3.8x, showing a V-shaped reversal then stabilization, short squeeze momentum marginally weakened but slightly recovered near the close. The 12-hour liquidation accounted for only 19.7% of the 24-hour total, indicating very low concentration and that liquidation pressure was still being massively released near the close. Leverage is recommended to be compressed below 3x; when direction is unclear, watch more and trade less.
🔥 Market Barometer | September 1
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Wash's hawkish stance is about to face the ultimate test from employment data; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under the "fiat credit revaluation"; and Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify the sustainability of AI hardware returns.
📊 Nonfarm Payrolls Friday Debut: Can Wash's "Hawk" Withstand the Data "Blade"?
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm payroll report will be released. Reuters surveys expect an increase of 58,000 jobs, unemployment steady at 4.1%; ING economists expect about 65,000 new jobs. July nonfarm unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and May-June combined were revised down by 103,000.
Last week, Fed Chair Wash delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, clearly stating that if inflation does not "fall clearly and fast enough" to the 2% target, the Fed "still has work to do." CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike surged from about 35% before the speech to 66.1%. Citi economists believe there was no consensus for a July FOMC hike, and cooling inflation plus slowing hiring means hikes are unlikely this year. If this week's data weakens again, the 66% hike expectation could quickly collapse.
₿ BTC High-Level Volatility: Gold Linkage Hits Record High, $7 Billion Flows into ETFs
Bitcoin rose 28% in August, once breaking $81,000, but fell under pressure after Wash's hawkish speech, currently oscillating between $77,000-$78,000.
The 90-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold hit a record high, with the 30-day indicator reaching a yearly peak of 0.8. This shift is driven by "fiat credit revaluation" — US debt surpassing $40 trillion, investors no longer choosing between gold and Bitcoin but buying both "non-government credit assets" simultaneously. In the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion inflow. SPDR Gold ETF attracted nearly $3.4 billion, BlackRock Bitcoin ETF $1.5 billion. Bitcoin is completing its role shift from "tech asset" to "digital gold."
🖥️ Broadcom and Dell Take Over: AI Hardware Returns Face New Test
Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of tests this week.
Dell led with an earnings beat after market close on September 1: Q2 revenue $46.97 billion, far exceeding the expected $44.92 billion; AI-optimized server revenue $16.4 billion, also beating expectations; the company significantly raised full-year AI server sales forecast to $74 billion. Shares rose 5% after hours.
Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. Analysts expect revenue of $29.43 billion, up 84.5% year-over-year; EPS $2.55, up 199.5%. Key market variables include whether the $16 billion AI semiconductor target can be met and if Google’s custom chip orders will be diverted due to Marvell’s involvement.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: This Friday's nonfarm payrolls will test Wash's "still has work to do" hawkishness — if employment weakens again, the 66% hike expectation may quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation," with a record $7 billion ETF inflow and correlation hitting a record high; Dell has proven with an earnings beat that AI server demand is still booming, and Broadcom will take over the test tonight.
As employment data, macro narratives, and AI earnings converge in the same week — the market awaits the final answer on September 4. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 #BTC high-level volatility, stronger linkage with gold
In August, crypto stocks rose by 8.81%. It looks like a sector rebound, but actually two forces are driving it: liquidity expectations have eased, and regulatory pressure has slightly withdrawn.
The U.S. Treasury has been buying back long-term bonds, pushing money out of risk-free assets; meanwhile, the SEC and the White House haven't caused trouble recently, so the Damocles sword hanging over the industry has temporarily been pulled back. When capital sees that risk premiums have decreased, it is willing to come back and reprice crypto assets. So the first to benefit from this rally are those closely tied to $BTC. Strategy benefits from Bitcoin's upward momentum, Coinbase from trading activity and valuation, Robinhood from retail investor inflows. The profits are not from any company's unique logic but from the industry's overall beta money.
Simply put, this rally is a kind of expectation repair. If macro liquidity continues in September and regulators offer some incentives, August might just be the appetizer. My own account is still empty, but friends have kept some $ETH as a defensive position. In this market, I prefer to earn less rather than chase highs. I'll wait until Bitcoin stabilizes or dips to create opportunities before making moves. The market is not short of opportunities; it lacks patience.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Account Position Divergence Radar
The number of accounts indicates the side taken, while the position ratio indicates the weight; only when these two are inconsistent is it worth monitoring.
For $DOGE, the number of accounts has already leaned towards the long side, but the scale of top positions has not followed. The current divergence comes from quantity and weighting. When the price rises, OI increases simultaneously; this phase is not simply deleveraging, and position attribution still requires transaction verification. Next, watch whether the scale of top holdings turns bullish; otherwise, even if there are more long-biased accounts, it is only a numerical advantage.
For $XAU, the majority of accounts are already long, but the top position ratio is still below 1, showing a clear misalignment between side taken and position weight. Price rises while holdings shrink; this phase should be understood as a reduction rebound. If the price moves up but top holdings continue to be bearish, position measurement conflicts are still likely during pullbacks.
For $SUI, there is a misalignment between long and short ratios; the number of accounts, top accounts, and top positions cannot yet be combined into a single conclusion. Expansion of positions occurs alongside price increases, indicating new positions supporting the market, but OI alone cannot determine long or short attribution. The account structure is still in flux; price and OI will decide which side truly gains the advantage. From the four-hour perspective, after Ethereum fell back from above 2490, the bears have continuously exerted pressure, with the lowest point directly plunging to around 2381. This wave of decline has been quite rapid, and there is obvious support around 2380, so I am not inclined to continue shorting near 2410. Next, it is more likely to first have a rebound to repair and fill the gap caused by the previous sharp drop, with the rebound focus initially around 2450. However, the four-hour highs continue to move lower, and the trapped positions after the previous breakdown remain. Once the upper repair is in place, the probability of a second downward push is still greater. The key focus afterward is to retest around 2400, and if the weakness continues, there is still room to move further down. Looking at the one-hour chart, small-bodied candlesticks are continuously closing near 2410-2420, indicating that the pace of the sharp decline is slowing. At this position, a direct drop is more likely to first harvest short positions, so in the short term, I prefer to first pull up a fake rally, then continue to push down along the main four-hour structure.
Bitcoin short at 77500-77800, target: 76800, further target 75800.
Ethereum short at 2430-2450, target: 2400, further target 2380. $BTC $ETH #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 From 82% down to 13%, faith in the CLARITY Act has collapsed
Seeing it drop from 82% to 13%, honestly, it's a bit numbing.
Last February, the predicted chance of passage was 82%, today it's 13%. It's not that no one is betting, it's that no one dares to bet.
September 15th is the final hurdle.
60 votes are needed; Republicans hold 53 seats, 7 votes short.
The House passed it in July 2025, the Senate Banking Committee passed it in May 2026. Then it got stuck in the Senate, stalled for over a year.
Stuck on two issues: stablecoin interest (community banks fear deposit outflows) and the Trump family ethics clause (Democrats want to restrict the Trump family's involvement in crypto business). Neither side is yielding.
What if it doesn't pass by September 15th?
Basically no chance this year. Only 14 legislative days remain before the election recess.
Impact on the crypto space:
Short term: The market may first drop. Bernstein predicts Bitcoin will pull back 10%-25%, testing 55,000-60,000. Altcoins may fall 15%-30%.
Medium to long term: Regulation won't stop, it will just take a different form. The SEC and CFTC may push rules themselves, but institutions want laws, not guidance.
The bigger cost: time. Senator Cynthia Lummis said failure could push crypto legislation to 2030.
But the industry has been operating without clear rules for 17 years. The bill's failure won't kill the crypto industry.
Everyone knows what needs to be done, but no one can push it through.
$BTC $ETH Still looks healthy against $BTC.
It has been grinding higher over the months and has gained +24% on the ETH/BTC ratio since the June low.
This is definitely in an up trend and as long as it trades above 0.03 I think this looks healthy.📉 $BTC
$BTC sold off today and took out the weak low below us.
The move was backed by genuine bearish intent:
🔴 Aggressive shorts entered and were rewarded, while spot continued selling into the move.
The bounce afterwards was very different.
It was primarily driven by short liquidations, with no meaningful buying intent behind it. Spot also remained largely absent.
📍 Key Level Now
We're now retesting the major nPOC from below.#BTCGoldCorrelation 🔥Low-level stabilization signal, do you usually pay attention to it?
Does a pullback without a new low count as a reliable buy signal?
I noticed that during the $SNDK correction phase, multiple pullbacks to key support levels held firm, the four-hour candlestick stopped falling and closed bullish, volume gradually increased, low-level buying funds continued to enter, and selling pressure was basically absorbed. I then suggested positioning long orders in the group.
The market rose as expected, recommending partial position profit-taking, and be sure to set stop-losses on the base positions to guard against sudden pullbacks. $SOL $ETH #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 $ZEC In the past year, Zcash has experienced the collective departure of its core team and an unlimited issuance vulnerability that has existed for four years (this vulnerability might have served as the trigger for ZEC's collapse for a period of time), which has concentratedly exposed its shortcomings in underlying code security, internal governance structure, and decentralized concept. Especially the fatal vulnerability incident in mid-2026, although the team managed to hold its ground through subsequent technological upgrades (Ironwood) and the endorsement of Wall Street institutions (such as Grayscale's launch of the Zcash spot ETF), the trust rift of "privacy protecting counterfeits" has become an indelible mark in its development history.
In my personal opinion, the sudden surge in prices due to positive news at this stage is the final harvest for retail investors before the collapse!$UNI is really about to take off!
It's climbing from over 5U to 6U!
Many people ask: Didn't they say there was good news a while ago? Why is it only rising now?
The main reason is that Uniswap is no longer just a platform for swapping tokens; it has started using part of the trading fees to buy UNI and then directly burn it.
The fewer tokens burned, the more valuable the remaining ones become. This method was decided at the end of last year, but at first, the amount burned was small, so no one paid much attention.
The real change came with Robinhood's new chain. Many people are buying and selling stock tokens and real asset tokens there, and the trading volume has increased nearly tenfold in a month.
Most of these trades go through Uniswap, so the fees have increased, and the amount of UNI burned has also increased. The more people use it, the faster the tokens are burned, and this cycle has only recently truly started.
Additionally, people have started to look favorably again at the established decentralized finance projects. With a technical breakthrough happening at the same time, money has flowed in.
So it's not that good news suddenly increased, but that previously it was just talk; now the fees are really burning tokens, the accounts match up, and the price follows.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Last night, the candlestick chart of $SNDK gave many traders a taste of a "long-short double kill": first, a bullish candle pushed up to 1543, and those chasing longs were immediately hit by consecutive bearish candles breaking below 1451, triggering precise stop-losses; then a large bullish candle quickly pulled back to 1579, and the shorts were out before they could react. This kind of movement looks more like a planned fakeout rather than a simple technical pattern.
The news provided key context: SNDK was included in the MSCI index, with index funds concentrating their purchases during the closing session, creating natural buying pressure; Bernstein listed it as a preferred storage stock, with AI inference and KV cache expansion continuously driving demand for high-capacity SSDs. From a technical structure perspective, the lows at 1418, 1440, and 1451 are gradually rising, and after multiple tests, the 1450-1500 range has solid support, suggesting a possible "false breakout with real accumulation," where large funds might be collecting chips at low liquidity levels due to index inclusion.
However, the current RSI is close to 60, making chasing highs in the short term uncomfortable. A relatively prudent approach is to participate in batches on pullbacks to the 1480-1500 range, set stop-losses below 1450, and target 1550-1580. But note that fakeout moves are highly volatile, so position control and discipline are especially important. The above is only a market observation based on public information and does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset prices fluctuate greatly; please rationally assess your own risk tolerance. $SNDKLatest situation analysis
Look at $SNDK, fundamentals are strong: Q4 revenue $8.97 billion, up 372% year-over-year, full year $20.25 billion; data center revenue $5.15 billion, up 437% year-over-year, AI inference clearly driving NAND demand. Bernstein ranks it as the top storage pick, with long-term agreements providing downside protection. However, technically it is still in a downtrend channel, with the stock price having retraced nearly 40% from its high, and a valuation of about 20x PE already reflecting many expectations. Mid-term, wait for volume breakout above 1560-1600 before following up, do not chase index sentiment.
$BTC hovers around 79,000, this week's nonfarm employment data will test the hawkish stance of the Fed. If August nonfarm exceeds expectations, the probability of a rate hike may rise again, putting pressure on BTC; if it falls short, a rebound is possible. Recently, BTC's correlation with gold has strengthened, reflecting shared concerns about confidence in the dollar, but the direction remains unclear amid high-level volatility. Waiting for data release, short-term support at 77,200, resistance at 81,000.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Last night my hand trembled slightly when setting the stop loss, but this morning I realized it was an unnecessary act of filial piety.😅 $GALA Before going to bed last night, I was still watching the retracement level, seeing that someone was buying below and funds were quietly coming in, so I set a long position. When I opened the market this morning, the price went straight from my entry price of 0.001331 to 0.001779, a +1682.94% gain, and I took profits. I actually didn’t put in much effort this time; the market performed so well that I almost want to applaud it. This big profit tastes really good.
Risk control comes first—that’s called being rational; cutting losses after losing is called decisive action.
So I wasn’t greedy: I took 75% profit first, moved the stop loss to the cost price for the remaining 25%, letting the profit run. It feels great, but I can’t get arrogant. Being out of the market isn’t a sin; recklessly opening positions is the mistake. Remember, the market punishes all kinds of arrogance, especially those who think they are the smartest. Looking at a coin without confidence is being clear-headed; buying a hand is foolish.
Now is not the time to chase; GALA has already pulled up quite a bit, chasing high is easy to get stuck at the peak.
Wait for the next structural move, then I’ll give a prompt immediately. For friends who haven’t gotten on board yet, listen to me: the market doesn’t lack opportunities, it lacks patience. Wait quietly for good news, don’t rush.
$DOGE $XRP 📊 $SPCX Contract Liquidation Express (September 1)
The bears started with extreme crushing pressure, but the leverage ratio quickly collapsed to near equilibrium — the direction shifted from a nuclear-level one-sided move to a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. After the dog whales completed targeted clearing, they stopped.
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $280.15 $280.15 $0
4 hours $172,200 $107,300 $65,000
12 hours $756,300 $346,400 $409,900
24 hours $788,100 $364,900 $423,200
From the SPCX liquidation data, in the 1-hour window, shorts monopolized all liquidations, with long liquidations at $280.15 and shorts at zero, indicating a short squeeze with extreme crushing pressure but very small volume; in 4 hours, shorts controlled the market moderately with a 1.65x ratio, and volume surged to $172,200; in 12 hours, the direction reversed — bulls slightly overtook with a 1.18x ratio, volume rose to $756,300; in 24 hours, bulls closed with a slight advantage of 1.16x, long liquidations at $423,200 versus shorts at $364,900, totaling $788,100 in liquidations. The leverage trajectory went from extreme crushing → shorts 1.65x → bulls 1.18x → bulls 1.16x, showing cliff-like exhaustion before crossing equilibrium, with direction repeatedly switching late but with very weak strength. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 96% of the 24-hour total, indicating extremely high concentration — large-scale liquidations were almost entirely in the first 12 hours, with almost no increase late. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; when direction is unclear, watch more and trade less.
🔥 Market Weather Vane | September 1
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Wash's hawkish tone is about to face the ultimate test from employment data; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under the "fiat credit revaluation"; and Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify the sustainability of AI hardware returns.
📊 Nonfarm Friday Debut: Can Wash's "Hawk" Withstand the Data "Blade"?
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm payroll report will be released. Reuters surveys expect an increase of 58,000 jobs, with unemployment steady at 4.1%; ING economists expect about 65,000 new jobs. July nonfarm unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and May and June were revised down by a total of 103,000.
Last week, Fed Chair Wash delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, clearly stating that if inflation does not "fall clearly and fast enough" to the 2% target, the Fed "still has work to do." CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike surged from about 35% before the speech to 66.1%. Citi economists believe there was no consensus for a rate hike at the July FOMC; cooling inflation and slowing hiring mean a rate hike this year is unlikely. If this week's data weakens again, the 66% hike expectation could quickly collapse.
₿ BTC High Volatility: Gold Linkage Hits Record High, $7 Billion Flows into ETFs
Bitcoin rose 28% in August, once breaking above $81,000, but fell under pressure after Wash's hawkish speech, currently oscillating between $77,000-$78,000.
The 90-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold hit a record high, with the 30-day indicator reaching a yearly peak of 0.8. This shift is driven by "fiat credit revaluation" — US Treasury debt surpassing $40 trillion, investors no longer choosing between gold and Bitcoin but buying both "non-government credit assets" simultaneously. In the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion inflow. Among them, SPDR Gold ETF attracted nearly $3.4 billion, and BlackRock Bitcoin ETF attracted $1.5 billion. Bitcoin is completing its role transition from "tech asset" to "digital gold."
🖥️ Broadcom and Dell Take Over: AI Hardware Returns Face New Test
Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of tests this week.
Dell first reported after market close on September 1 with better-than-expected results: Q2 revenue of $46.97 billion, far exceeding the expected $44.92 billion; AI-optimized server revenue of $16.4 billion, also beating expectations; the company significantly raised its full-year AI server sales forecast to $74 billion. Shares rose 5% after hours.
Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. Analysts expect revenue of $29.43 billion, up 84.5% year-over-year; EPS of $2.55, up 199.5%. Key market variables include whether the $16 billion AI semiconductor target can be met and whether Google's custom chip orders will be diverted due to Marvell's involvement.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: This Friday's nonfarm payroll will test Wash's hawkish "still has work to do" stance — if employment weakens again, the 66% rate hike expectation may quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation," with a record $7 billion ETF inflow and record-high correlation; Dell has proven with better-than-expected earnings that AI server demand is still booming, and Broadcom will take over the test tonight.
As employment data, macro narratives, and AI earnings converge in the same week — the market awaits the final answer on September 4. SPCX liquidation data is a typical microcap snapshot before major events: after extreme clearing in 1 hour, leverage quickly exhausted to near equilibrium, with 96% concentration indicating leverage was cleared in the first 12 hours, leaving the rest as dead time. The big direction still depends on the nonfarm payroll outcome. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 BTC$BTC spiked down to 76300 early this morning, what's going on?🤔
Direct cause: A whale dumped 7,700 BTC (about $577 million) over 3 days, combined with a chain of high-leverage long liquidations, and thin liquidity at dawn directly pierced the liquidation pool.
Nature: After the spike, it quickly pulled back. ETFs are still flowing in. This is a leverage cleanup on the way up, not a trend reversal.
Outlook: Heavy selling pressure at 80,000, focus on the 76000-77000 support zone. If it holds, expect wide-range consolidation; if not, look down near 70,000.
$ETH $SOL
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 $SNDK SanDisk surged $100 in the last 45 minutes of trading, and many on the stock forum thought it was a major positive news, but it actually has nothing to do with the fundamentals — it’s just the MSCI quarterly rebalancing taking effect. SanDisk was officially included in the MSCI Global Standard Index, so all passive funds tracking this index must complete their positions before the close on August 31, causing a concentrated buying spree at the close that pushed the price up sharply.
This is not the market re-evaluating SanDisk’s fundamentals; it’s rule-driven passive buying.
What’s really worth watching is the NAND fundamentals themselves. According to Qianzhi Consulting data, storage prices continued to rise in Q3 but the growth rate has clearly slowed, with some storage chips’ month-on-month increases narrowing to within 10%. Enterprise demand is still supporting the market, but consumer PC customers’ acceptance of price hikes is declining.
There is also significant divergence among institutions. JPMorgan sees $2250, Citi sees $2500, while Raizs only gives $1350. The gap is nearly double.
The NAND narrative is shifting from “supply shortage” to “capacity expansion race” — Samsung and SK Hynix are accelerating their production lines in China, and SanDisk and Kioxia just announced a $31 billion capacity expansion. When everyone is expanding, the cycle turning point often comes faster than expected.No one can accurately count how many people were liquidated or got rich tonight—such data is not publicly available in real time, but the market already tells the whole story.
Closed at $1566.70, soaring 5.50%. In the last 45 minutes, the price surged straight from 1460 to close, with a daily trading volume of 23.38 million shares, more than 2.5 times the average volume of previous days, turnover about $36 billion, and a turnover rate of 15.97%.
The reason for the surge is very clear—
After the close on August 31, SanDisk was officially included in the MSCI World Index (MSCI World). The official MSCI announcement shows that SanDisk is one of the largest new constituents added to the MSCI World this time. All passive funds tracking this index must complete their positions before the close, and the concentrated buying at the close directly triggered the rally.
This is a typical "passive capital-driven" pulse—unrelated to the company's fundamentals, purely a capital event caused by index rebalancing. Arbitrageurs pre-positioned and then closed out collectively, passive funds were forced to buy, and the combined long and short forces amplified the volatility at the close. As for those traders who were short with high leverage or chasing highs, the outcome in this violent 45-minute surge or possible subsequent pullback is predictable.
In the short term, passive buying has already been realized; for the medium term, the direction still depends on the fundamentals of AI storage. #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 The crypto stocks rally in August has already yielded profits, but the real market trend may not be over yet.
In August, crypto-related stock indices rose by 8.81%. On the surface, it looks like a sector rebound, but in reality, two main forces are driving it simultaneously: improved macro liquidity expectations + reduced regulatory risk premium.
On one hand, the U.S. Treasury continues to buy back long-term bonds, easing market concerns about Treasury yields and liquidity. When the appeal of risk-free assets declines, capital naturally seeks assets with high elasticity and high risk-reward ratios.
On the other hand, the SEC and the White House keep sending relatively positive regulatory signals, reducing the long-standing policy uncertainty faced by the crypto industry. For the market, this means a lower risk premium and a reopening of valuation space.
So the first to benefit from this round are still the high-beta targets.
Strategy benefits from the asset elasticity brought by $BTC's rise; Coinbase benefits from increased trading volume, market activity, and industry valuation; Robinhood directly benefits from retail trading enthusiasm and digital asset business expansion.
So don’t simply interpret it as “crypto stocks all rising together.”
Essentially, this is a beta market driven jointly by improved macro liquidity expectations + reduced regulatory risk + BTC strengthening.
What’s being earned is not the independent logic of any single company, but the money from capital being willing to assign higher valuations to the entire crypto industry again.
What’s truly worth watching is that if liquidity continues to improve and regulation continues to release positive signals in September, August may only be the first phase of this crypto stock rally.Nonfarm payrolls are approaching, and market trading logic has changed; the "poor employment data means a big rally" no longer applies.
With the nonfarm employment data coming soon, the market trading logic has shifted and no longer simply equates employment shortfall with a big cryptocurrency rally.
Currently, the Federal Reserve is most concerned with two indicators: new job additions + average hourly wage inflation.
① Moderate cooling in employment with wages falling simultaneously: genuinely positive, rate cut expectations rise, US Treasury yields decline, ETH has higher beta and greater elasticity than BTC.
② Weak employment but wages remain high: inflation risks persist, rate cuts are further delayed, the market tends to spike then quickly fall back, a bull trap.
③ Employment data exceeds expectations strongly: rate hike expectations rise, risk assets come under pressure, ETH’s pullback is significantly larger than BTC’s.
④ Employment data deteriorates severely, the market begins to trade recession fears; even if rate cut expectations increase, risk assets will still be sold off.
Common institutional option market strategy: hold spot base positions while buying put options for downside protection, no large-scale naked shorting. This position structure makes it difficult to sustain a smooth one-sided move, with high risk of two-way spikes.
Coin differentiation: $BTC tends to be a digital reserve asset, showing stronger resilience in bearish environments; $ETH remains tied to global risk appetite, with greater price volatility.
On the eve of nonfarm payrolls, it is recommended to reduce leveraged positions, avoid heavy one-sided bets in advance, and wait for the data release before following the market.📊 $LAB Contract Liquidation Express (September 1)
Bears crushed the market all day long, with leverage continuously declining from an extremely high level to 57x — short squeeze momentum gradually faded, and bears started to show signs near the close.
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $4,356.86 $4,356.86 $0
4 hours $37,800 $37,600 $215.25
12 hours $46,900 $46,500 $382.51
24 hours $152,100 $149,600 $2,595.91
From LAB liquidation data, bears monopolized all liquidations in 1 hour, with long liquidations at $4,356.86 and shorts at 0, starting the short squeeze with extreme crushing pressure; at 4 hours, bears maintained an extreme 174x crushing pressure, with volume soaring to $37,800; at 12 hours, bear advantage narrowed to 121x, volume rose to $46,900, momentum marginally weakened; at 24 hours, bear advantage sharply dropped to 57x at close, with long liquidations at $149,600 versus shorts at $2,595.91, totaling $152,100 in liquidations. Bear leverage dropped from 174x → 121x → 57x, showing a continuous exhaustion trajectory, and short squeeze momentum gradually declined. The 12-hour liquidation accounted for only 30.8% of the 24-hour total, indicating low concentration and that liquidation pressure continued to release near the close — short liquidations jumped nearly 7 times from $382 to $2,595, indicating bears began targeted liquidations, but bulls still held a huge overall advantage. Leverage is recommended to be compressed below 3x; direction is clear but momentum is fading, so avoid blindly shorting.
🔥 Market Wind Vane | September 1
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Wash's hawkish tone is about to face the ultimate test from employment data; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation"; and Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify the sustainability of AI hardware returns.
📊 Nonfarm Payrolls Debut Friday: Can Wash's "Hawk" Withstand the Data "Blade"?
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm payroll report will be released. Reuters surveys expect an increase of 58,000 jobs, with unemployment steady at 4.1%; ING economists expect about 65,000 new jobs. July nonfarm unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and May and June were revised down by a total of 103,000.
Last week, Fed Chair Wash delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, clearly stating that if inflation does not "clearly and quickly" return to the 2% target, the Fed "still has work to do." CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike surged from about 35% before the speech to 66.1%. Citi economists believe there was no consensus for a rate hike at the July FOMC; cooling inflation and slowing hiring mean a rate hike this year is unlikely. If data weakens again this week, the 66% rate hike expectation could quickly collapse.
₿ BTC High Volatility: Gold Linkage Hits Record High, $7 Billion Flows into ETFs
Bitcoin rose 28% in August, once breaking $81,000, but fell under pressure after Wash's hawkish speech, currently oscillating between $77,000-$78,000.
The 90-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold hit a record high, with the 30-day indicator reaching a yearly peak of 0.8. This shift is driven by "fiat credit revaluation" — US Treasury debt surpassing $40 trillion, investors no longer choosing between gold and Bitcoin but buying both "non-government credit assets" simultaneously. In the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion inflow. SPDR Gold ETF attracted nearly $3.4 billion, BlackRock Bitcoin ETF attracted $1.5 billion. Bitcoin is completing its role shift from "tech asset" to "digital gold."
🖥️ Broadcom and Dell Take Over: AI Hardware Returns Under Further Test
Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of tests this week.
Dell first reported after market close on September 1, beating expectations: Q2 revenue $46.97 billion, well above the expected $44.92 billion; AI-optimized server revenue $16.4 billion, also exceeding expectations; the company significantly raised its full-year AI server sales forecast to $74 billion. Shares rose 5% after hours.
Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. Analysts expect revenue of $29.43 billion, up 84.5% year-over-year; EPS $2.55, up 199.5%. Key market variables include whether the $16 billion AI semiconductor target can be met and whether Google's custom chip orders will be diverted due to Marvell's involvement.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: This Friday's nonfarm payrolls will test Wash's hawkish "still has work to do" stance — if employment weakens again, the 66% rate hike expectation may quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation," with a record $7 billion ETF inflow and correlation hitting a record high; Dell has proven with its better-than-expected earnings that AI server demand is still booming, and Broadcom will take over the test tonight.
As employment data, macro narratives, and AI earnings converge in the same week — the market awaits the final answer on September 4. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 #Employment data densely released, Wash's policy stance under scrutiny
Short-term strategy follows the long-term strategy on $ETH
Still making 💰💰💰 today Empty empty empty
US August ISM Manufacturing PMI at 54.6, below expectations and previous value.
Still above the 50 expansion-contraction line, the economy is still expanding but momentum is weakening.
Not favorable for further rate hikes, nor supportive of immediate rate cuts, the Federal Reserve is waiting for inflation and employment data.
#Employment data densely released, Wash's policy stance under scrutiny @OKX星球 #OKX Prophet: CS2 Porto fierce battle. $ETH Weakness May Be More About Macro Than Fundamentals
$ETH has slipped into the $2.4K–$2.45K range as changing expectations around the Fed put pressure on risk assets.
What stands out, however, is the behavior of spot ETFs. Despite the recent decline, ETH ETFs have maintained a positive flow streak since mid-August, suggesting larger players haven’t been rushing for the exit.
$ETH ETH also continues to hold roughly 11% crypto market dominance, while overall market sentiment remains in Greed territory at 69.
For now, the setup looks less like an ETH-specific breakdown and more like a broader macro reset. If ETF demand continues holding up, this weakness could end up being viewed as accumulation rather than distribution.Soul-searching question: The tokens in your hand, on which “truly your own Chain” are they running? 🔍
Many people don’t realize that most projects in the market claiming to be “rising stars of some ecosystem” are essentially just small sidechains under someone else’s big tree, with lifelines in others’ hands, always facing risks of network disconnection, congestion, and rule changes.
Why has ACO insisted on building an independent mainnet from the start?
🔹 Owning its own independent Chain ID and native ledger, not relying on others;
🔹 Full autonomous control over transaction confirmation, smart contracts, and cross-chain assets, firmly holding security and sovereignty in its own hands;
🔹 Refusing to be anyone’s “secondary accessory,” supporting the entire ecosystem with a truly independent foundation.
Building a public chain is like building a house; the foundation must be laid by yourself to have enough confidence.
#ACO主网 #独立底层 #区块链安全 #公链叙事 #加密货币 I was just about to go to the forum to rant, but then I checked my balance and decided against it. The market is always right 😂 When everyone else was still hesitating, I noticed $ZRO. Every time it surged, it fell just short, and the volume couldn't keep up, so I knew there was a story behind this level. Many were waiting for a volume breakout, but I felt the risk here outweighed the opportunity.
The resistance level was locked down tight, and the rebound felt more like a chance for people to sell. Shorting at this level was easy to set stop-loss for, and the risk-reward ratio was comfortable. I went short directly at 1.2714 with a simple logic: a resistance level that can't be broken is a cash machine for bears.
Now at 0.9987, up +429.29%, the answer is clear, brothers. This short position was worth the wait.
Position management is crucial: first close 80%, keep 20% at cost price for protection. Don't fear the pullback; the stop-loss is there to support the bottom. If it continues to fall, let the profits run. When it's time to exit, do it cleanly without hesitation.
The market punishes all kinds of arrogance, especially those who think they're the smartest. For friends who haven't entered yet, listen to me: now is not the time to chase shorts. Wait for a new structure to form. The premise of compounding is survival; the shortcut to getting rich often leads to zero. More opportunities will come, so stay tuned.
$ETH $LAB $CRCLCIRCLE Today's Overview: I have to honestly say a few words about this position; both the premium and momentum are weakening. Let's go through the logic below.
📰 News: CRCLCIRCLE's underlying stock news is bearish, and the token premium is relatively high.
🔧 Technicals: Daily chart shows bearish divergence signs, and it has broken below the short-term moving average.
🌍 Macro: After U.S. stock market close, lacking support from the underlying stock.
🎯 Today's View: Bearish, with significant pressure for premium to revert.
📊 Token 89.12 (-6.21%) | Underlying Stock 89.48 (-6.35%) | Premium -0.40% | After U.S. market close
💎 Summary: Don't rush to buy before the premium reversion is complete; wait for sentiment to clear before reconsidering.
#USStocks
#TokenAnalysis $ETH is trading around $2,400–$2,450, down nearly 2% as the broader market reacts to changing Fed expectations.
Rate-hike odds have climbed sharply over the past week, putting more pressure on risk assets. But there’s an interesting contrast beneath the price action.
ETH spot ETFs have reportedly maintained an 11-day streak without a net outflow since mid-August, suggesting institutional demand has remained relatively resilient despite the recent weakness.
Ethereum still represents roughly 11% of total crypto market dominance, while overall market sentiment remains in Greed territory.
For me, the bigger picture looks more like macro-driven consolidation than an ETH-specific breakdown.
Price may be cooling, but the continued ETF flows are worth watching. If that demand holds, this pullback could prove more significant than the candle suggests.#BTC high-level volatility, stronger linkage with gold
The recent move by the Monetary Authority of Singapore looks like regulation but is actually about defining camps for stablecoins. The amendment starting September 1 upgrades stablecoins from guidelines to legal constraints: issuers must have 100% reserves, monitor market value daily, allow users to redeem at face value within five business days, and are prohibited from paying interest to holders. This aligns with the direction of the US GENIUS Act, raising compliance thresholds directly.
My focus is not on the text but on $USDT. Its market cap is 183 billion, yet it has not obtained the European MiCA license and is already losing ground in Europe. If Asian financial centers also tighten regulations simultaneously, structural pressure on USDT will truly arrive. Don’t underestimate this; stablecoins are the underlying pipelines of the crypto market. If the pipeline is blocked, liquidity will inevitably be affected.
On the other hand, $USDC has taken the lead, with Circle already obtaining the main payment institution license in Singapore. Going forward, institutional funds will likely choose compliant options first. The role of $BTC becomes clearer—stablecoins compete on compliance, while BTC serves as a store of value. Each goes its own way, which is good.
My own account is still empty; a friend has halved their $ETH holdings, clearly setting defensive lines. I treat this kind of news at most as talking points and won’t rush to open positions. The market is currently waiting for macro direction, not a regulatory news piece. I’ll keep watching calmly. What do you think about this round of stablecoin compliance reshuffling? Let’s discuss in the comments.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 This $TRUMP 50x short position was opened at 2.365, marked at 2.271, with an unrealized profit of 198.73%. Essentially, this is the result of realizing the risk-reward ratio.
Originally, this position wasn’t a top guess but a calculated decision that the downside space was enough to cover the upside risk. Now that it has reached this point, most of the risk-reward ratio has been realized, and further downside space needs to be reassessed.
For those who followed, close half to lock in profits, and move the stop loss to the opening price of 2.365. Even if stopped out later, it will be a no-loss exit.
For those who didn’t follow, don’t act as a bag holder or chase shorts at this position. Wait for the price to form the next structure on its own; the direction will align accordingly. Trading doesn’t require catching every candlestick; just fully capitalize on the parts you understand. $BTC $ETH To continue buying $SOL, DeFi Development Corp is willing to pay a financing cost of 13% upfront. This is the most direct contradiction this time: on one side is continuing to accumulate SOL, and on the other is high-cost capital starting at 13%. On August 31, DeFi Development Corp, led by Joseph Onorati, submitted a new preferred stock issuance plan, intending to issue 2.2 million shares of Series C perpetual preferred stock with an initial annualized dividend rate of 13%. The funds raised will be used to continue purchasing SOL and other crypto investments. 1. What is truly expensive this time is the money to buy SOL. So the focus is no longer "the company wants to buy SOL again," but how expensive it is willing to pay to buy it. A 13% cost of capital means that the asset returns and price appreciation brought by SOL, plus the company's own equity premium, must run fast enough over the long term for this calculation to make sense. 2. Crypto Treasury is entering a stage of "competing on cost of capital." Previously, the market preferred to see how many coins these companies had accumulated. But now, just looking at the size of holdings is no longer enough. Buying SOL with low-cost capital versus buying with 13% cost capital is a completely different risk. As long as asset returns and equity premium do not cover financing costs, financing to buy coins may shift from amplifying returns to becoming a continuous burden. 3. What the Treasury model truly tests is whether this calculation can hold in the long term. Joseph OnorThe current market is not weakening; it seems more like it is waiting for direction. Bitcoin remains sideways, Ethereum lacks independent upward momentum, and most altcoins are still watching where the funds go. The most common mistake at this stage is forcing trades out of a "must trade" mentality. Bitcoin's MACD shows signs of divergence, but divergence itself does not constitute a bottom signal. Without stronger volume support and a clear breakout above previous highs, the market is still in a confirmation phase. The previous single-day $216.7 million spot ETF inflow was encouraging, reversing the outflow from the previous day, but one positive performance cannot answer the core question: can institutional demand continue? This is the key. If ETF net inflows continue and Bitcoin holds the range, the buyers' case is stronger; if the flow reverses again, the market may remain stuck or retest lower support. Ethereum faces a similar situation, moving with the broader market but not yet showing enough independent strength to establish a trend. Until new funds or substantial catalysts appear, patience may be more valuable than prediction. Meanwhile, high-beta assets like DOGE and TRUMP remain highly sentiment-dependent, capable of rapid rallies when attention arrives and equally swift declines when liquidity fades. Therefore, it is unnecessary to chase every pulse-like surge; what matters more is the direction of real funds. The current tug-of-war essentially involves ETF demand versus profit-taking, liquidity versus macro uncertainty, and spot buying versus leveraged positions, with one side eventually prevailing. At this stage, Bitcoin remains the core market signal: if it breaks out with volume, the crypto market may see a long-awaited confirmation; if it loses support, altcoins will decline faster.The latest data on spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States reveals a deeper picture than just cautious risk avoidance; we are witnessing a smart redistribution of liquidity within the market rather than a mass withdrawal of funds. 📊 Analysis of the figures from August 24 to 28: During this period, institutions injected massive liquidity distributed as follows: 🟠 $BTC: attracted about $924 million. 🔵 $ETH: recorded inflows of $824 million. 🟣 $SOL: attracted $154 million. 🟢 $XRP: drew $110 million. ⚠️ August 28 session: the divergence that reveals the hidden was witnessed 📊 $KAITO Contract Liquidation Express (September 1)
Shorts have gone from extreme crushing to 32x full control, with short squeeze momentum continuing to strengthen. The direction is highly consistent but the scale is relatively small.
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $1,326.50 $1,326.50 $0
4 hours $25,800 $24,900 $951.56
12 hours $42,500 $41,200 $1,312.38
24 hours $50,500 $49,000 $1,518.16
From the KAITO liquidation data, shorts monopolized all liquidations in 1 hour, with long liquidations at $1,326.50 and shorts at 0, starting the short squeeze with extreme crushing but at a probing scale; in 4 hours shorts crushed at an extreme 26x, with scale rising to $25,800; in 12 hours shorts' advantage expanded to 31x, scale rose to $42,500; in 24 hours shorts' advantage expanded to 32x at close, with long liquidations at $49,000 versus shorts at $1,518.16, totaling $50,500 in liquidations. The short multiple rose from extreme crushing → 26x → 31x → 32x, showing a climbing and continuously strengthening trajectory, with short squeeze momentum increasing stepwise. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 84.2% of the 24-hour total, showing very high concentration. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; direction is clear but scale is small, avoid blindly chasing shorts.
🔥 Market Wind Vane | September 1
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Wash's hawkish tone is about to face the ultimate test from employment data; Bitcoin and gold deeply link under "fiat credit revaluation"; and Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify the sustainability of AI hardware returns.
📊 Nonfarm Friday Debut: Can Wash's "Hawk" Withstand the "Blade" of Data?
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm payroll report will be released. Reuters surveys expect an increase of 58,000 jobs, with unemployment steady at 4.1%; ING economists expect about 65,000 new jobs. July nonfarm unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and May and June combined were revised down by 103,000.
Last week, Fed Chair Wash delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, clearly stating that if inflation does not "clearly and quickly" fall back to the 2% target, the Fed "still has work to do." CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September surged from about 35% before the speech to 66.1%. Citi economists believe there was no consensus for a rate hike at the July FOMC; cooling inflation and slowing hiring mean a rate hike this year is unlikely. If this week's data weakens again, the 66% rate hike expectation could quickly collapse.
₿ BTC High Volatility: Gold Linkage Hits Record High, $7 Billion Flows into ETFs
Bitcoin rose 28% cumulatively in August, once breaking above $81,000, but fell under pressure after Wash's hawkish speech, currently oscillating between $77,000-$78,000.
The 90-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold hit a record high, with the 30-day indicator reaching a yearly high of 0.8. This shift is driven by "fiat credit revaluation"—US Treasury debt surpassing $40 trillion, investors no longer choosing between gold and Bitcoin but buying both "non-government credit assets" simultaneously. In the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion inflow. Among them, SPDR Gold ETF attracted nearly $3.4 billion, and BlackRock Bitcoin ETF attracted $1.5 billion. Bitcoin is completing its role shift from "tech asset" to "digital gold."
🖥️ Broadcom and Dell Take Over: AI Hardware Returns Under Further Test
Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of tests this week.
Dell first reported after market close on September 1 with better-than-expected results: Q2 revenue of $46.97 billion, far exceeding the expected $44.92 billion; AI-optimized server revenue of $16.4 billion, also exceeding expectations; the company significantly raised its full-year AI server sales forecast to $74 billion. Shares rose 5% after hours.
Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. Analysts expect revenue of $29.43 billion, up 84.5% year-over-year; EPS of $2.55, up 199.5% year-over-year. Key market variables include whether the $16 billion AI semiconductor target can be met and whether Google's custom chip orders will be diverted due to Marvell's involvement.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: This Friday's nonfarm will test Wash's "still has work to do" hawkish stance—if employment weakens again, the 66% rate hike expectation may quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold deeply link under "fiat credit revaluation," with a record $7 billion ETF inflow and correlation hitting a record high; Dell has proven with better-than-expected earnings that AI server demand is still booming, and Broadcom will take over the test tonight.
As employment data, macro narratives, and AI earnings converge in the same week—the market awaits the final answer on September 4. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验