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This is not trading crypto, this is precise poverty alleviation for the exchange.
Looking at the position chart, I literally laughed until I did a Thomas spin on the spot.
For this ETH trade, I actually dared to go all-in long with 100x leverage! Opened at 2731, now down to 2650, floating loss of 55.75U, return rate negative 299%. 100x, brothers, if the market maker sneezes, my position will be cremated on the spot. The liquidation price is 2322; I'm not waiting for a miracle, I'm waiting for the Jade Emperor to descend and pump the price.
ZEC is even crazier, 50x all-in long, opened at 1602, now down to 1549, floating loss of 64.24U, negative 163%. It made me 85U before, I thought we were true love, but it turned around with a big trick, taking back all principal and interest. I treated it like an ATM, but it treated me like an ATM slave.
Two trades with a floating loss of over 100U, margin only about fifty-something U, maintenance margin rate 693%. I stare at the screen, feeling like I'm not watching trading but watching my wallet free-fall.
When I go long, it falls; when I cut losses, it rises. Did the market maker install surveillance on my phone? Almost feels like they want to come through the network cable and chop off my hands.
Once high leverage is on, my heart turns into a disco scene. When making money, I'm timid; when losing, I hit hard, add positions, and hold on to the death. Others trade crypto to achieve financial freedom; I trade crypto to achieve wealth evaporation, mainly giving money to the market and even paying fees. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 $BTC: After liquidation, don't guess the direction based on belief
Short-selling fuel exhaustion is often misread as "only upward movement left." In fact, covering shorts just clears a segment of resistance; it doesn't mean the price must continue to surge. After the upper liquidation zone is swept, the market will temporarily lose its anchor, and capital will look for the next volume area.
That is the real watershed. If spot buying, contract increments, and stablecoin inflows can take over, the price has the confidence to keep rising; if there is only liquidation pulses without real support, the pullback will become the main theme, and the 60K area will come back into view.
This is not to scare, but the market structure is speaking. The liquidation chart can tell you where it hurts, but not where you win. The direction is ultimately decided by capital voting: whether they are willing to buy at higher prices and bear overnight risk.
Belief can make people hold positions, but only capital can push prices. Sweeping the top does not mean the bull market continues. Watch if buying follows and if volume can take over. $BTC's next move is not in emotions but in liquidity. $ETH $ZEC
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 Today's Silk Road basically fulfilled
Did not reach the expected levels: $BTC did not stand above 845, $ETH did not stand above 2725, $ZEC did not stand above 1615
What a pity, all just one step short of perfection, then parted ways hand in hand～
How can the world have a perfect solution, neither betraying Buddha nor you.
Placing orders tonight is a bit risky, currently BTC is still hovering around 840, ETH around 2700, ZEC around 1530
Long sideways means a drop is inevitable, the shorting risk at this ZEC point is as high as 30 floors, BTC and ETH are a bit better, about 20 floors.
The bro on the grind today is already drooling, keep up the good work tomorrow
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 🔥 September 29 $ETH: 2,800 is the hurdle, failed to pass for the third time
OKEx currently reports $2,684, a slight 24h drop, -3% over 7 days, but still +10% over 30 days. Throughout September, it rebounded from above 3,500, approaching 2,800, but again "pulled back as soon as it touched"—three failed attempts to break through, bulls' confidence is being worn down bit by bit.
Why is it stuck? Hawkish speeches from Powell suppress risk appetite, and expectations for rate hikes in October are heating up; more importantly—this rally is largely supported by short covering, with insufficient new incremental funds, so selling pressure emerges at resistance levels. On the 1-hour chart, a surge to 2,526 was smashed down to 2,403 by a large bearish candle, and rebound volume remains thin, a typical weak recovery.
But don't rush to be bearish: spot ETFs have had net inflows for 10 consecutive days, with another 102 million absorbed yesterday, institutions are quietly buying; staking volume is rising, chips are consolidating.
Key levels (hourly basis)
Support: 2,699 → if broken, look at 2,632 / 2,562
Resistance: 2,743 / 2,807
In short: 2,699 is the short-term lifeline, if it can't hold, don't stubbornly hold long positions. ETH is more elastic than BTC, stop loss should be at least $100, wait for a pullback to 2,632 to stabilize before buying lower, don't chase at resistance levels.
$BTC $ZEC #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
Currently, the US spot BTC and ETF saw about $2.4 billion net inflow last week, with institutional funds continuing to accumulate, and Strategy also increasing BTC holdings again, indicating that long-term capital demand remains evident.
Another set of data shows the pressure from US Treasury yields and interest rate expectations. This week, PCE, employment, and non-farm payroll data will be released intensively. If the data is hotter than expected, BTC may still experience significant volatility.
If BTC declines but ETFs continue to have net inflows, it indicates that chips are shifting from short-term funds to long-term funds. If the price fluctuates, the direction of capital flow is often more worth watching.
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 $BTC $ETH $ZEC 🔥🔥 This correction is not caused by a single negative factor, but is the result of a combination of rising macro risks, increased geopolitical oil pressure, and the liquidation of leveraged long positions. $BTC and $ETH are mainly affected by macroeconomic and capital factors; $ZEC's movement is more due to its own ETF narrative and crowded leverage leading to a spike and subsequent pullback.
1. Geopolitics and Oil Prices: The Most Direct Emotional Trigger
After Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the market feared energy channel blockages, causing oil prices to rise again. Rising oil prices increase inflation expectations, and the 10-year US Treasury yield remains at a high level, which suppresses the appeal of both risk assets and zero-yield assets. Therefore, this decline is not a "crypto-only problem" but a simultaneous impact on risk appetite from US stock futures, US Treasuries, the US dollar, and crude oil.
2. Fed Rate Hike Expectations Repriced
The market is repricing the possibility of the Fed raising rates again in October, with the CME FedWatch tool showing nearly a 68% chance of rates reaching 400–425 basis points. This means the previous optimistic expectations for easing or pausing rate hikes have been revised. In a high interest rate environment, capital prefers to stay in assets like the US dollar and US Treasuries, reducing the relative attractiveness of assets like BTC and ETH.
3. US Treasury Yields and Strong Dollar Suppress Risk Appetite
The 10-year US Treasury yield remains near 5%, and the dollar is strong, which is a typical headwind for crypto assets. More importantly, BTC increasingly resembles a macro asset; it is no longer driven solely by ETF funds but is more sensitive to real yields, dollar liquidity, and risk appetite. So even if ETF funds flowed in earlier, prices are still easily pushed down when macro liquidity tightens.
4. The Previous Rebound Was Largely "Passive," and the Correction Has Technical Needs
Last week, BTC rebounded to around $87,000, driven by short squeeze, ETF fund inflows, and some arbitrage funds. This rise does not fully represent a return of long-term bullish consensus. After prices hit resistance, short-term longs take profits, and with the short squeeze ending and lack of sustained buying, a pullback naturally occurs.
5. Leverage Liquidations Amplify the Decline
About $330 million in liquidations occurred across the market within 24 hours, with long liquidations around $231 million. This indicates the market is not in full panic but that leveraged longs are being cleared. Sentiment indicators remain in the "greed" zone, but prices are falling, showing this is more a position structure issue than a collapse of fundamental confidence.
6. The Specifics of ZEC's Correction: ETF Narrative + Crowded Leverage
ZEC's earlier rise was mainly driven by Grayscale ZCSH ETF inflows, privacy narratives, and short squeezes. However, recent data shows that although ZCSH has a large asset size, a significant portion comes from existing position conversions rather than continuous new funds; recently, net inflows have slowed or even stalled. Meanwhile, ZEC futures open interest has risen rapidly, RSI once approached overbought levels, and prices repeatedly faced resistance near $1,670. Therefore, ZEC's correction this time looks more like leveraged longs being liquidated at key resistance levels, with volatility naturally higher than BTC and ETH. The rebound is meant for selling off, and whales understand this better than anyone.
Do you know how much ETH quietly changed hands in the past week?
I checked the on-chain data and almost couldn't sit still.
A whale holding ETH for three years transferred a total of 112,053 ETH to Bitfinex in the past week, worth $300 million, cashing out $72.83 million.
Another OTC whale directly transferred 42,000 ETH to Galaxy Digital on September 23, worth $112 million, a full liquidation; after selling, they have less than 10,000 ETH left.
Retail investors are shouting to buy the dip at 2700, while whales are rushing to cash out at 2700. Doesn't this scene look familiar?
Look at the calendar. This Friday, October 2, the US September nonfarm payroll report will be released as the finale.
On October 27-28, the Federal Reserve meeting will take place, and CME data shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike has surged to 69.7%.
Nonfarm payroll plus rate hike, two bombs dropping in a row.
Not to mention the ETF side is still bleeding; from September 14 to 18, the Ethereum spot ETF saw a net outflow of $140 million, institutions are simply not following.
Technically, the high point at 2806 was tested twice but failed to hold, and the right shoulder of the double top pattern is getting lower each time.
I opened a short at 2713.62, currently up 13.66%, with a stop loss above the previous high at 2806.
First target is 2600; if the nonfarm data bombs, next week we look directly at 2500.
Three signals resonate: whales are running, macro is suppressing, technicals are weak.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 📈 The core meaning of this passage
The author is saying: The major bull markets in BTC's history have not been a straight upward climb; there are often corrections of 20% or even over 30% in between.
He cites two historical phases:
* During the rise from $3.2K to $69K, there were 4 corrections exceeding 30%.
* During the rise from $15.6K to $126K, there were also 4 corrections exceeding 20%.
So the author wants to express:
Don't assume BTC will go straight up to $200K from now on; significant corrections along the way are normal.
🔄 What does "next leg up" mean?
It can be understood as:
Rise → Correction → Rise again → Correction → Rise again
In other words:
🚀 Rise → 📉 Correction → 🚀 Rise again → 📉 Correction → 🚀 Next wave of rise
The author believes these corrections may be adjustments before the next phase of upward movement.
⚠️ But there is a very important distinction here
Historical large corrections do not prove that after the next correction, the price will definitely continue to rise.
Moreover, the author says:
"dips are for buying"
This is the author's own trading view, not a confirmed fact.
A more objective understanding should be:
BTC's historical bull markets indeed often have deep corrections; if corrections occur in the future, they should not automatically be interpreted as the end of the bull market, nor should they automatically be considered buying opportunities. $BTC Based on the current market, BTC is not in a "one-way decline," but rather undergoing liquidity repricing after a rally: ETFs and corporate treasuries are buying, but U.S. Treasury yields and macro sentiment are weighing down, causing short-term bulls to be cleared out again.QNT current price is 235.93, with bulls' momentum clearly exhausted after a 300% surge in 24 hours. Macro risks combined with futures deleveraging caused the overall market to drop 1.78%, altcoins broadly declined, and QNT's rally was purely driven by tokenization news; once sentiment fades, it becomes risky.
MACD green bars are shortening, with heavy liquidation around 236.5, bulls are clearly under pressure. Miners are shifting computing power to AI, Bitcoin's 7-day average hash rate has fallen to a three-week low, and market risk appetite is contracting. QNT has support at 220 below, but selling pressure above is heavier.
Just registered a foreign car at the security booth, came back and saw this K-line, a row of liquidations piled up at 236.5, a typical bull trap structure.
Trading plan: short directly from 236.5 to 238, defend at 242, take profit first target at 225, second target at 220. If 220 breaks down with volume, continue shorting on rebounds targeting 210. Do not take long positions unless 220 stabilizes and closes with a long lower shadow, then consider a short-term rebound.
Chasing longs at this level is just giving money to the market makers; the probability of a bearish counterattack is much higher than a continued rally.
$QNT
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
@OKX星球 Long and Short Crowding List
$ALGO current rate differs from 24-hour cumulative rate: current rate -0.0192%, historical 7th percentile (100 settlements); price down 0.31%; total of 3 settled rates in past 24 hours +0.016%, currently paid by shorts.
$HBAR current rate differs from 24-hour cumulative rate: current rate -0.0158%, historical 0th percentile (100 settlements); price down 1.00%; total of 3 settled rates in past 24 hours +0.002%, currently paid by shorts.
$WLD price weakening, long side paying higher cost: current rate +0.0100%, historical 100th percentile (100 settlements); price down 0.12%.$BTC Today, BTC slightly weakened, maintaining a range-bound oscillation between $80,000 and $87,000. U.S. stock Bitcoin ETF funds showed divergence; leading products saw slight inflows, but other ETFs experienced redemptions, indicating institutional funds are taking profits at high levels. The bullish momentum is weakening, with multiple attempts to test the $87,000-$88,000 resistance zone failing to hold. The $80,000 level is the short-term core support line; if broken, high-leverage contracts in the market will trigger a chain liquidation, leading to a rapid decline.
$ETH Without incremental funds from spot ETFs, it is a highly elastic follow-up asset, fluctuating today between $2,600 and $2,800. During upward phases, its gains often surpass BTC, but during corrections, the declines can be deeper. $2,600 is the first support, and $2,800 is the short-term strong resistance.
The core variable in today's market remains the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and U.S. Treasury yield fluctuations. Macro data is the key to breaking the current range-bound market. In the short term, the market will likely continue to oscillate back and forth, harvesting leveraged positions.
There are two possible market directions: if BTC breaks out and holds above $87,000 with volume, it will drive ETH to challenge $2,800; if BTC fails to hold the $80,000 support, ETH will simultaneously break down, targeting around $2,480.
Potential risks include sudden negative news on U.S. crypto regulation, inflation data exceeding expectations, and market leverage liquidations; ETH also faces potential selling pressure from staking unlocks.First kill leverage, then talk about counterattack
Don't rush to go long now. There is a cluster of large whale long positions below, and the market will most likely dip down first to clear leverage before comfortable long positions come. The overall direction is still bullish, but the rhythm requires guarding against a sharp drop first.
ETH: Around $32.12 million long positions gathered between 2614—2632, with liquidation line concentrated near 2613. Short term target is 2630 first, then 2622 and 2614; if broken, 2550 may be tested. Futures open interest has dropped by about 500,000 coins in the past four days, leverage ratio back to March lows, more like active deleveraging rather than trend reversal. Wait for whales to be liquidated and price to stabilize above 2630 before adding longs more safely. Aggressive traders should only open light initial positions, keeping the rest of the funds for the dip.
ZEC: Market cap about $26.4 billion, supports at 1550, 1500; resistance at 1600, 1685. Trend is intact but volatility is high, not suitable for chasing the rally.
$SNDK: Supports at 1740, 1680; resistance at 1815, 1900. AI server NAND demand remains a long-term logic, but valuation is not cheap after consecutive rises, better to buy on pullbacks.
Summary: This round looks more like killing leverage first then pulling up the market. Initial positions can be tried, but don't use all your ammo at once. The truly comfortable long positions come after whales have been shaken out once. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 I’m not investing anymore; I’m performing a full-scale internet comedy show called: “If I don’t close the position, the loss is only theoretical.” 🤡 📉 A-SHARES: The screen is basically a sea of red. Semiconductor names are getting hammered, while the broader market is dealing with a serious risk-off mood. At this point, opening my stock app feels like buying a front-row ticket to a roller coaster I never asked for. And then I checked crypto… $ETH: around $2,690 After failing to stay above the One important clarification about Solana today:
You may see posts saying Alpenglow “launches” on September 28.
That's not confirmed.
Alpenglow is currently being tested on Solana's public networks.
The September 28 schedule item relates to resuming mainnet feature activation, not a confirmed Alpenglow mainnet launch.
Crypto moves fast.
So should our facts.
Always check the actual upgrade status.Brothers, don't ask me what I ate 5 jin of, no matter what it is, I definitely didn't eat it.
Look at this daily chart, it has completely turned down, and today it started falling again. Soon 0.25 won't hold, 0.2 is coming.
Whether from the market trend, the price movement, or the macro perspective, there is no upward momentum left.
At this point, I don't know why I wouldn't short, or why I would hold long.
First, look at the market. The 24-hour high was 0.30203, the low smashed down to 0.23923, now barely closing at 0.24716.
The MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages are all pressing down overhead; the short-term moving average system has completely broken down.
More importantly, TradingView's technical analysis has long warned that $USELESS faces a 50% correction risk, with a large amount of long liquidation liquidity gathering around 0.1483.
Once it breaks below the 0.23 support, the subsequent chain liquidations will smash the price straight through.
Now look at the macro side. The US nonfarm payroll data for October 2 is about to be released, followed by PCE and the Federal Reserve's October rate meeting.
Bitcoin can't hold on anymore. Today BTC dropped over 2%, hitting a new low since September 21.
The US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $799 million, and BlackRock's IBIT fled $119.7 million in a single day.
Institutions are retreating, the market is bleeding, what can altcoins rely on?
$BTC $ETH #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Please, stop rising, I can't hold my short positions much longer
$ETH short position floating loss is 8500 dollars, $SOL short position floating loss is 1200 dollars. Both are full positions, and the margin ratio has reached 1400%.
$ETH opening average price is 2668, the mark price is already 2696, liquidation price is 2883. Honestly, if it pushes up a bit more from here, my mentality will really explode.
$SOL is even worse, shorted at 118, now at 119.8, although it hasn't reached liquidation yet, watching it creep up is more painful than getting liquidated directly.
My logic for shorting this round is simple: it has risen too much and should correct. But the market is telling me with actions: what you think is high, institutions think is cheap.
Now I just have to hold on hard. Closing the position feels regretful, not closing it makes me afraid of a big bullish candle wiping me out.
Please, stop rising. Leave some room for the bears. $BTC $BTC: It's not that the trend is broken now, but rather that the "ETF buying" and "U.S. Treasury real yields" are in conflict, causing the price to be repeatedly shaken between $83,000 and $85,000.
🔥 Resistance above: $87,000–$87,300.
🔥 Support below: $83,000, with a break below targeting $82,500 / $80,875.
🔥 Sentiment: Still leaning towards "greed," indicating more of a leverage cleanup rather than a panic crash.
Don't view the current pullback as a crash, nor the rebound as a reversal.
The real direction is determined not by a single candlestick, but by whether capital flow can continue + whether U.S. Treasury real yields can fall back + whether $83,000 support can hold. The security budget of Dogecoin has never relied on transaction fees.
On-chain data shows that miners receive a fixed 10,000 DOGE for each block mined, with transaction fees accounting for less than 0.1% of miners' total income, even lower than the 2% commonly assumed. About 1,400 blocks are mined daily, generating 14 million new coins. At the current price of $0.09, this equates to a security budget of approximately $1.3 million.
This cost is not borne by users but shared among all coin holders through an annual inflation of about 3.4%, resulting in network transactions costing less than 4 cents each and confirmations within one minute. Miners' break-even point depends on electricity prices: efficient mining rigs paired with electricity costs below $0.07 per kWh can break even if $DOGE stays above $0.06; older rigs with higher electricity costs push the break-even point to around $0.13, and when prices approach this level, those rigs shut down first.
The security fallback is merged mining— the same batch of Scrypt miners simultaneously produces Litecoin, effectively doubling income for the same electricity cost. Low transaction fees are not a weakness but a design choice: using predictable moderate inflation to secure stable hash power and low transaction costs.Market down? This nonfarm payrolls dip is not its fault, don’t lose your head over the data
Many people see the market plunge and immediately think "the nonfarm payroll data bombed." But in fact, the September nonfarm payroll data won’t be released until this Friday (October 2). Today’s drop can’t be blamed on it at all.
The "face-slapping" market move everyone remembers was actually from the last August nonfarm payrolls. Back then, new jobs added were 162,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 56,000, which directly caused US Treasury yields to rise and the probability of a rate hike to jump. BTC was smashed from above 81,000 down below 80,000 that day. That shot has already been fired.
Today’s drop looks more like a "proactive position reduction before data week."
The current logic is actually very clear, mainly three points putting pressure:
1. The 10-year US Treasury yield remains above 5.1%, close to the highest level since 2007. With such a high risk-free rate, capital naturally doesn’t want to stay in non-yielding risky assets.
2. CME pricing shows about a 68% chance of another rate hike in October, with expectations for a second hike in December. The market is already preparing ahead after the September 16 hike.
3. August PCE will be released this Wednesday (September 30), and September nonfarm payrolls on Friday. Although the expectation is for new jobs to slow to 80,000–100,000 in September, as long as the data doesn’t collapse, it offers limited support for a "higher for longer" interest rate environment.
Additionally, in the past 24 hours, long liquidations were about $209 million, twice that of shorts. This is a typical case of leverage dying first.
So, don’t attribute every drop to "nonfarm payrolls missing" $BTC: The trend isn't broken now; rather, the "ETF buying" and "U.S. Treasury real yields" are conflicting, causing the price to oscillate repeatedly between $83,000 and $85,000.
🔥 Resistance above: $87,000–$87,300.
🔥 Support below: $83,000, with further targets at $82,500 / $80,875 if broken.
🔥 Sentiment: Still leaning toward "greed," indicating more of a leverage cleanup than a panic crash.
Don't interpret the current pullback as a crash, nor the rebound as a reversal.
What truly determines the direction is not a single candlestick, but whether $ETH capital flow can continue + whether U.S. Treasury real yields can decline + whether $83,000 support can hold. 9.28 Intelligence: $BTC closed above the May high, technically bullish, but less than 1% from the high, almost flat! Historically, after breaking above the 50-week moving average (like in 2019 and 2023), it usually rises 20%-30% within 1-2 weeks, but this round's increase is obviously weaker. The market worries about seasonal weakness and continuously rising yields. Previously, I predicted weakness in Q4, but BTC's continued strength makes me reconsider. Future analysis will reduce subjective bi9.28 Intelligence: $BTC closed above the May high, technically bullish, but less than 1% from the high, almost flat! Historically, after breaking above the 50-week moving average (like in 2019 and 2023), it usually rises 20%-30% within 1-2 weeks, but this round's increase is obviously weaker. The market worries about seasonal weakness and continuously rising yields. Previously, I predicted weakness in Q4, but BTC's continued strength makes me reconsider. Future analysis will reduce subjective bi"AKE from 0.16 to 0.028: I went long, small position, accepting the loss and fate"
$AKE dropped from 0.16 to 0.028, and I actually went long 😂
82% gone. At this level, would you dare to catch the fall? I dare.
Closed my previous short on BTC, but my hands got itchy, so I got back in. Not because I think it’s definitely bottomed, just that it’s fallen this far, I want to see if anyone else dares to reach out.
Small position, so small that even if it blows up, it won’t affect my sleep. No adding, no holding stubbornly, no fantasizing about a one-shot recovery. If AKE takes another hit, I accept it; if it suddenly rallies, that would be interesting 😂
I’m not betting on a reversal, but on the tiny odds at the emotional freezing point. It’s normal to be wrong, if right, consider it a lucky pick.
$AKE $BTC
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Whales are aggressively buying $90 million, is UNI an opportunity or a trap?
$UNI has been quite strong recently, the data is right there, really tempting.
On-chain capital data: in the past 30 days, large wallets have net bought $86.9 million, firmly holding the top spot among Ethereum altcoins, exceeding the second place LINK by a full $30 million. Whales are continuously accumulating during the pullback, a move more honest than any candlestick pattern.
The policy side also delivered a positive boost: SEC staff guidance clarified that buybacks of mature network tokens do not constitute securities issuance. The buyback and burn model of UNI has largely dispelled regulatory doubts. Although the guidance is not legally binding, the direction is clear.
However, don’t rush in just yet.
The RSI indicator is still stuck in the overbought zone, and the fear-greed index has just fallen from a high of 86 to 55, indicating short-term sentiment is still overheated. Entering now is likely to result in taking a pullback.
The launch of CME futures on October 19 is the next key milestone. Before that, any excessive rise carries risk.
For overbought tokens, patiently wait for a pullback. Don’t catch the last leg at the emotional peak. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 9.28 Market View: $BTC closed above the May high, keeping the technical structure bullish. But with price less than 1% away from the high, the market is basically moving sideways rather than pushing higher. Historically, after reclaiming the 50-week moving average, BTC has often delivered gains of roughly 20%–30% over the following 1–2 weeks, as seen in 2019 and 2023. This time, however, the follow-through has been noticeably weaker. Seasonal Q4 weakness and persistently rising Treasury yields rEveryone who chased $SNDK at 1800 will face a moment.
That moment is when they first see the news that the CEO cashed out 53.27 million.
After seeing it, do you pretend not to see and keep holding, or admit you were on the wrong side?
Most people choose the former.
Because admitting you were wrong hurts more than losing money.
But the data won’t disappear just because you don’t look.
On September 17, CEO Goeckeler cashed out 53.27 million at an average price of 1574.
Five days later, Rosenblatt covered the stock for the first time, setting a target price of 2400.
One person who knows this company best, and an analyst who read the financial report,
chose opposite directions on the same stock.
Who do you trust?
Looking at the macro environment, the 10-year US Treasury yield is 5.23%, the highest since 2007.
The Federal Reserve has a 64.8% chance of raising rates in October. Oil prices surged past $100, and inflation stickiness far exceeds expectations.
In this environment, high-valuation chip stocks propped up by AI narratives are the first to get drained.
On the daily chart, $SNDK pulled from 989 to 1800 and then consolidated continuously; the MACD red bars shrank to almost invisible, and all moving averages are pressing overhead.
No drop doesn’t mean a rise. The longer the consolidation, the greater the momentum once the direction is chosen.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Fear and Greed Index at 74, the market is in the greed zone, with a clear rise in risk appetite. $HBAR surged 37.38% in 24h, currently priced at 0.12981, with a trading volume of 166.0M USDT, representing a typical sector rotation catch-up rally. With no obvious pullback in BTC, small and mid-cap coins have received overflow funds, and HBAR has broken out with increased volume accordingly. MA5 (0.125964) has crossed above MA20 (0.109458), establishing a bullish alignment, and the MACD histogram +0.002239 continues to expand, indicating a bullish trend.
However, two risk signals need attention: RSI is as high as 88.6, severely overbought, with short-term profit-taking pressure; the funding rate is +0.0100%, indicating crowded longs, so if BTC weakens, HBAR’s pullback could be amplified. The upper Bollinger Band at 0.135349 forms the first resistance, and the current price is close to this upper band, so chasing the price higher carries significant risk.
Operationally, it is recommended to buy on dips rather than chase the rally. Entry reference is in the 0.1230–0.1260 range, which is close to MA5 and serves as a pullback confirmation after the breakout; take profit 1 is at 0.1350, corresponding to the upper Bollinger Band resistance; take profit 2 is at 0.1450, an extended target at a round number; stop loss is set below 0.1150, as breaking below MA5 and losing this level would damage the bullish structure.California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed legislation on Sept. 27 restricting state/local public officials from issuing meme coins; the law is broader than TRUMP specifically. $ZEC Someone is using 123 million U in unrealized profits to lure you on board
The redder the market, the calmer you need to be.
The 123 million U unrealized profits on the bulls' accounts look like a feast, but are actually more like bait. Veteran players with a base cost around 1087 have long built their safety cushions into walls. If the price drops a few hundred points, they just earn less; if you chase in now, every dip means real money flowing out.
The most dangerous illusion is thinking you're boarding with the trend, but in others' eyes, you're just liquidity. The old bulls aren't waiting for higher prices, they're waiting for someone to take away these hundreds of millions in profits. At any pullback, low-cost chips cash out at any time, and chasing the high market instantly turns unrealized profits into realized losses.
So I don't join the hype, I go heavy on short positions. It's not stubbornness, it's that the position isn't favorable: above are all profit-taking orders, below are all panic buyers who just got in. Taking long positions here has a ridiculously poor risk-reward ratio.
Don't be emotional fuel, don't be someone else's cash-out tool. In this $ZEC game, I stand with the bears. This is my personal operation and does not constitute advice.$BTC's recent pullback is not due to a single negative factor, but rather the result of a combination of rising macro risks, increased geopolitical oil pressure, and the liquidation of leveraged long positions. BTC and $ETH are mainly influenced by macroeconomic and capital factors; $ZEC's rise and fall is more due to its own ETF narrative and crowded leverage positions.$BTC OI just reset to the same floor we saw before the last major push.
Leverage is getting flushed while price holds $84K–$85K. The last time this happened, $BTC ran toward $87K.
I’m bullish here. This looks more like fuel being cleared for the next leg than a top being formed.🔴 Vitalik Buterin publishes his first novel for free and open source
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📰 The Ethereum founder announced the completion of his 32-chapter fantasy novel Snowmoon, which revolves around a conflict between two communities in a world governed by cryptography, decentralized governance, and zero-knowledge proofs. He said he wrote the text himself and only used AI for proofreading. The novel is licensed under GPL v3, and any cinematic adaptation must also be open source.
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⬡ LEGENDARY_007
$ETHwallets associated with the Trump memecoin team moved about 8.4 million TRUMP (~$18M at the time) to OKX between Sept. 18–21, following a scheduled unlock. That has increased concerns about potential selling pressure. Nearly $3 billion in net ETF inflows over six days, yet BTC is still stuck between 83K and 85K. Money has come in, so why won't prices rise further? This week, I hit the nonfarm payrolls and PCE again. Watching the market, I had a subtle feeling: buying clearly wasn't weak, but every time it approached the upper edge of the range, it felt like hitting a soft wall. Six consecutive days of net ETF subscriptions approaching 3 billion yuan—a scale that would normally trigger a wave of excitement, but BTC remained sideways. I tend to believe the market isn't doubting demand, but waiting for macro pressure to set a direction. Before the nonfarm payrolls and PCE are implemented, big money would rather buy time for space than push prices up first. This actually sends a signal: capital preference is shifting from chasing rallies to defensive allocation. ETF inflows resemble passive dollar-cost averaging and institutional rebalancing rather than emotional chasing of highs. The characteristic of this type of money is that it enters steadily but not urgently, so it can support the bottom but may not immediately break above it. In other words, the demand is real, but the catalyst hasn't arrived yet. ETH is even more obvious. The current price is fluctuating near 2680, with resistance above 2742 and support below at 2650. My short position at 2712 is still partially unclosed. Why dare to hold on? Because ETH currently lacks a narrative of its own; it follows BTC's rhythm but lacks independent momentum. If BTC continues to grind, ETH will most likely repeatedly wear down the bulls' patience within this box, and altcoins will hardly see any decent sector rotation. SOL is still leading, moving from 117 to 122, showing stronger momentum than the broader market. But here$BTC Damn it! The trading volume of Bitcoin has been stolen. All spot funds have fled to altcoins, with altcoin volume nearly 4 times that of Bitcoin. What signal is this? The funds no longer recognize you as the big boss. Even a shakeout would be polite; this is blatant bloodletting.
At 83956.7, I go short directly, cover a portion at 84500 on the rebound, stop loss at 85200, target first at 81200, and if broken, head to 79000.
Don't ask, just short. If you don't want to get buried, follow the downward move. Open the card below yourself; don't wait until it crashes to regret it.
Whether you follow or not, profits and losses are your own responsibility.
👇👇👇$BTC traders went from $8B underwater to $16B in unrealized profit in a matter of weeks.
That’s the biggest green spike this cycle.
And $BTC is still 30%+ below the highs.
Pain flipped into euphoria fast.
Now the question is whether these profits keep building or start getting taken off the table.This correction is not caused by a single negative factor, but is the result of a combination of rising macro risks, increased geopolitical oil pressure, and the liquidation of leveraged long positions. BTC and ETH are mainly affected by macroeconomic and capital factors; ZEC's movement is more due to its own ETF narrative and crowded leverage leading to a spike and subsequent pullback.
1. Geopolitics and oil prices: the most direct emotional trigger
After Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the market feared energy channel blockages, causing oil prices to rise again. Rising oil prices increase inflation expectations, and the 10-year US Treasury yield remains at a high level, which suppresses the appeal of both risk assets and zero-yield assets. Therefore, this decline is not a "crypto-only problem" but a simultaneous impact on risk appetite from US stock futures, US Treasuries, the dollar, and crude oil.
2. Fed rate hike expectations repriced
The market is repricing the possibility of another Fed rate hike in October, with the CME FedWatch showing a near 68% probability of rates reaching 400–425bp. This means the previous optimistic expectations of easing or pausing rate hikes have been revised. In a high interest rate environment, capital prefers to stay in assets like the dollar and US Treasuries, reducing the relative attractiveness of assets like BTC and ETH.
3. US Treasury yields and a strong dollar suppress risk appetite
The 10-year US Treasury yield remains near 5%, and the dollar is strong, which is a typical headwind for crypto assets. More importantly, BTC increasingly resembles a macro asset; it is no longer driven solely by ETF funds but is more sensitive to real yields, dollar liquidity, and risk appetite. So even if ETF funds flowed in earlier, prices are still easily pushed down when macro liquidity tightens.
4. The previous rebound was somewhat "passive," and the correction has technical demand
Last week, BTC rebounded to around $87,000, driven by short squeeze, ETF fund inflows, and some arbitrage funds. This rise does not fully represent a return of long-term bullish consensus. After the price hits resistance, short-term longs take profits, and after the short squeeze ends, the lack of sustained buying naturally leads to a pullback.
5. Leverage liquidations amplify the decline
About $330 million in liquidations occurred across the market within 24 hours, with long liquidations around $231 million. This indicates the market is not in full panic but that leveraged longs are being cleared. Sentiment indicators remain in the "greed" zone, but prices are falling, indicating more of a position structure issue rather than a collapse of fundamental confidence.
6. The particularity of ZEC's correction: ETF narrative + crowded leverage
ZEC's earlier rise was mainly driven by Grayscale ZCSH ETF inflows, privacy narratives, and short squeezes. However, recent data shows that although ZCSH has a large asset size, a significant portion comes from existing position conversions rather than continuous new funds; recently, net inflows have slowed or even stalled. Meanwhile, ZEC futures open interest has risen rapidly, RSI once approached overbought, and the price repeatedly faced resistance near $1,670. Therefore, ZEC's correction this time looks more like leveraged longs being cleared at a key resistance level, with volatility naturally higher than BTC and ETH.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $BTC is rallying, but volume is telling a different story.
Futures volume is lower than the August 20 rally, despite $BTC pushing higher.
Less volume behind the move means weaker market participation.
Price is rising, but appetite seems to be fading.$BTC Middle East geopolitical conflicts trigger widespread market deleveraging, compounded by macroeconomic pressure, with high leverage in contracts further amplifying this decline.
BTC has fallen from the intraday high of $84500 to around $82800, a 24-hour retracement of about 2%,
$ETH has dropped over 2%, currently priced at $2650
$SOL has fallen nearly 4%.
The total liquidations across the network in 24 hours amount to $192 million, with long positions liquidated at $96.38 million.
The US vetoed Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, signaling potential military action before the midterm elections. The market fears disruption in oil supply, with WTI crude oil breaking through $93, pushing inflation expectations higher again.
This decline is a short-term portfolio adjustment sparked by geopolitical events igniting macroeconomic bearishness, further amplified by crypto leverage. This week, the market will face two core data points: nonfarm payrolls and PCE inflation, which will directly reshape Federal Reserve policy expectations and determine the subsequent direction of risk assets.
BTC's short-term key support lies in the $83800–$84000 range; if it breaks below this effectively, the downside space will continue to open.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 For the first time since Bitcoin’s October 2025 ATH, we’re seeing multi-billion-dollar weekly ETF inflows again.
Around $2.1B flowed into the ETFs last week, signalling that this pool of investors has started taking notice of Bitcoin once again.
In our latest piece, examines the return of ETF demand and what the onchain, futures and ETF data tells us about the current Bitcoin market.this signal called the $BTC bottom every cycle but one.
2015: sharpe ratio climbed out of capitulation, fell back in, and price dropped from $294 to $228 before the real low. a 22% fake-out.
2019, 2022, now: clean exits.
we just left -1 again. worst case on record is one more 22% shakeout.. best case is what happened every other time.Seeing this series of forced liquidation notifications tonight really feels bittersweet.
50x, 75x, 100x...
I once thought leverage was a tool to amplify profits, but after experiencing it firsthand, I understand it can also magnify risks to the extreme.
When the market is favorable, you always think you understand it; when your account keeps rising, it's easy to forget how close the risk really is.
But the market never gives you time to react.
A single sharp drop candlestick can wipe out profits accumulated over days or even weeks in an instant; a seemingly ordinary pullback can also be the end for a high-leverage account.
The hardest part isn't actually losing money, but watching the principal you painstakingly built up disappear within minutes.
The biggest takeaway from tonight's market move is:
The market won't rise just because you believe it will; nor will it give you a chance just because you think you're close.
In the end, trading isn't about who dares to go all in, but who can stay at the table the longest.
Money lost can be earned again, and positions lost can be rebuilt.
But if the principal is gone, when opportunity comes, you can only watch from the sidelines.
May we all have less luck and more reverence.
Don't let one trade be your last trade.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 $SOON I won't touch coins with such low circulation anymore, do whatever you want with them #ThisWeekWelcomesKeyNonFarmAndPCEData #EarningsObserver: Micron's Earnings Are Approaching, AI Storage Demand Becomes the Focus #USAndIranContinueNegotiationsOnHormuzOpeningConditions
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 30, August PCE data will be released, and at 20:30 on October 2, the September non-farm payroll report will be published. Currently, the US economy still shows resilience, inflation is slowing down slowly, and after the Federal Reserve resumed rate hikes, US Treasury yields remain high. The market is highly sensitive to the magnitude of future rate hikes and the duration of high interest rates. Several Federal Reserve officials will appear intensively this week, among them Barr will discuss the economic outlook, and Jefferson will focus directly on the US economy and monetary policy.
$BTC fluctuates repeatedly between 82,000 and 84,500, like a meat grinder that won't stop. Those chasing longs just entered at 82,500 and got suppressed, while those waiting for a breakout at 84,800 hesitate to act. Neither side gains an advantage. Spot ETFs have seen net inflows for several consecutive days, institutional funds are clearly entering, yet the price seems nailed down.
$ETH is tugging back and forth around 2,620; at 2,670 some sell immediately, at 2,580 some buy in. My short position at 2,650 hasn't moved; I added a bit when it surged the day before yesterday, and reduced some when it pulled back today. The remaining position I just let swing with the wind. It's not that I don't want to exit, but until the range breaks, all the ups and downs are just tests; the bears haven't conceded, nor have the bulls given up. "The Well and the Sea"
The crypto world always loves soul-searching questions: A, an account always with 500U; B, a one-time handover of 150 million U.
I choose A. Not out of pride, but out of acceptance. 500U is like a small well, it won't make you rich overnight, nor will it swallow you whole. Withdrawing 500U each time, you’ll never run out in a lifetime, just thinking about it is reassuring. No matter how crazy the market gets, I’m just a spectator, but at least I don’t get woken up by liquidation alerts in the middle of the night.
Of course, 150 million U is awesome, with choice, voice, and no need to slowly grind from a small account. But the bigger the money, the bigger the inner demons. Traders with operational skills might choose B, as they can navigate the storms; someone like me who prefers to lie flat is only fit to pick shells by the shore.
Started losing money today, game over 😭. More certain now: I’m suited for that well.
⚠️ This does not constitute investment advice, contract risks are huge. $BTC $ETH $SOL
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 The Mayer Multiple, one of Bitcoin’s most widely followed valuation metrics, sits in the 59th percentile historically.
Almost perfectly middle-of-the-road. Neither cheap nor overheated.📊BTC SHORT UPDATE
Bitcoin dropped from $84,973 to $83,352, down about 1.18%, putting strong pressure on the market.
📉 RSI(6) is deeply oversold at 25.28, while $BTC broke below the lower Bollinger Band—raising the possibility of a short-term rebound.
My short position is finally approaching breakeven. I’m watching $83,300 closely and may reduce the position if momentum weakens, while $83K–$83.3K remains the key zone to watch. $ETH
In the game of public blockchains, it's no longer about scoring points, but about who can hold the best assets close. ETH's foundation remains solid, but SOL and BNB Chain are eyeing it fiercely from the sidelines. The moment I am most cautious is never when the leader stumbles, but when the neighbors run so fast that the leader looks like it's just taking a stroll 😂I’ve said this for a long time, but now we finally have enough data to see it clearly. Look at BlackRock’s IBIT: 🟢 Huge cluster of inflows at the cycle TOP 🔴 Huge cluster of outflows at the cycle BOTTOM That’s not forecasting price, that’s reacting to price. I think of ETF flows more like a tradfi Fear & Greed Index. They tell you how mainstream investors are feeling right now, not so much where Bitcoin is going next. So when you see people on here getting excited because ETF inflows are surgi