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Why do people who made big profits in one market cycle tend to lose more easily in the next?
When I first entered the crypto space, I thought those who made big money had more experience and would only earn more in the next cycle. Later, I realized that success in the previous cycle can sometimes be more dangerous than failure.
In a bull market, everything goes up, making it easy to mistake market gains for personal skill.
After the account multiplies several times, positions get larger, stop losses get farther, and even ordinary returns feel unworthy. Having made tenfold gains last cycle, a 30% rise next cycle feels too little.
I have also experienced this kind of inflation.
After hitting the main trend in a certain cycle, I mistakenly thought I understood the market, then tried to replicate the same method in another phase. But chasing gains works in a bull market, while in a sideways market it leads to repeated losses; diversifying holdings works when altcoins rise broadly, but after liquidity shrinks, you’re left with a bunch of tokens no one wants to buy.
The hardest thing to admit is: making money depends both on skill and the cycle’s favor.
When the market environment changes, previously correct experience can become the most costly obsession.
Before each market cycle starts, you should treat yourself as someone who needs to prove themselves again: re-examine liquidity, reassess position size, and accept that "this time it might not be so easy to make money."
Remember: the real danger is not having never made big money, but after making it, writing luck into your personal skill manual.Other coins are waiting for the Federal Reserve, $HYPE is抢券商的饭碗
HYPE, with a market cap of 20.6 billion, fell 2.35% yesterday, but what it does is unrelated to whether it falls or not. Hyperliquid is moving Nasdaq onto the blockchain.
On September 1st, Silhouette's RFQ block trading inquiry system went live on the Hyperliquid mainnet, with the first batch accepting xStocks tokenized stocks. The logic is: newly tokenized stock order books are thin, and no one dares to place large orders; RFQ turns it into a market maker competitive auction, where you submit demand, multiple parties compete for orders, settlement happens on-chain, 24/7 without closing, and assets with real trading volume then "graduate" to an independent order book. Behind this are Polychain and RockawayX.
The numbers for xStocks are not small: since launching in June last year, cumulative transaction volume has exceeded 40 billion USD, with 200,000 holders and nearly 20 billion settled on-chain. Payward also plans to tokenize the top 100 companies of the London Stock Exchange.
My view: projects that can claim to "seize traditional financial business" are few in this round, and HYPE is the most practical. Its 3.3 billion open contracts are not pure speculation; someone is using it for real trading. The $82 price is hit along with the market, but it is one of the few positions I am willing to add to during a decline. Brothers, the just-released US August ADP employment data is indeed a bit "disappointing"! Core data overview: Actual: Private sector new jobs 38,000 Expected: about 47,000 Previous: about 46,000 This is the weakest since January this year, clearly below expectations, confirming the cooling signal in the job market again. So what exactly is ADP? Why is the crypto community so focused on it? ADP (commonly called "small nonfarm") is a "leading indicator" of US private sector employment, released two days earlier than the official nonfarm payrolls (NFP). It directly influences market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates: Strong data → Overheated employment → Rate hikes / high rates maintained longer → Strong dollar, high yields → Bearish for BTC and other risk assets Weak data → Cooling employment → Rising expectations for rate cuts → Weak dollar, improved liquidity expectations → Bullish for crypto market Simply put: weak employment = potential "liquidity easing" signal, historically often providing short-term sentiment support for Bitcoin and others. Actual impact of today's data on the crypto market Short-term bullish sentiment: 38,000 is far below expectations, reinforcing the narrative of "continued labor market slowdown," helping to reduce the probability of a September rate hike and increasing the possibility of a rate cut or pause. This is "theoretically" positive for high-beta assets like BTC and ETH. Volatility remains: As the data just came out, the market may first experience deleveraging volatility (especially in the futures market), [only if rate cut expectations are further confirmed later will there be a real chance to gain momentum.] Key variablesToday's crypto market has actually told you a very important change: the market is temporarily unwilling to give risk assets higher valuations. BTC has dropped from above $81,000 all the way back to around $77,000, ETH has fallen to about $2,400, and SOL has even directly returned to around $100. But if you only look at the crypto circle, it's easy to interpret this as a normal correction. The real core is actually outside the crypto market. Now Brent crude oil has risen back above $95, the 10-year US Treasury yield is close to 4.8%, and market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September have clearly heated up. The simultaneous occurrence of these three things is far more damaging to BTC than a single bearish candle. Because in the past few months, the market traded on: rate cuts → liquidity improvement → risk asset valuation expansion → BTC rise. Now it suddenly becomes: oil price rise → inflation concerns → bond yield rise → rate hike expectations heating up → risk asset valuations being compressed. So you will find that today it's not just BTC that is falling. Stocks, bonds, and crypto assets are all starting to come under pressure. This is also why I am now reluctant to simply explain the market with the four words "bull market correction." What will truly decide BTC's direction next may not be whether some altcoin has positive news, but: whether oil prices can come down. If crude oil continues to approach $100, and US Treasury yields continue to near 5%, then even if BTC's fundamentals are not bad, it will still be affected by valuationThe "small non-farm" data just came out, and as Kai Ge expected, it was lower than anticipated, but the market hasn't shown much short-term volatility.
The reason is that it was only slightly below expectations, 38,000 people, which is 10,000 less than expected. This isn't a particularly sharp employment slowdown, so the market won't immediately adjust rate cut expectations drastically based on this data.
Moreover, ADP itself is not the official non-farm payroll; the market pays more attention to Friday's US non-farm employment data. Tonight's ADP is more of an early reference.
The market has already priced in cooling employment; everyone already knows US employment is weakening, so after the 38,000 figure was released, there wasn't a significant "expectation gap."
In the short term, if $BTC doesn't rally noticeably, it actually indicates the market is waiting for the real non-farm data on Friday. If Friday's non-farm data is also significantly below expectations, then it will be different—rate cut expectations may further heat up, and if the dollar and US Treasury yields weaken simultaneously, BTC will be more likely to experience a sustained rally.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 The London Stock Exchange is preparing to put stocks on the blockchain. It sounds like traditional finance is finally "surrendering" to the crypto world, but I think it's quite the opposite: it's more like the old exchange is incorporating the blockchain into its own rules. On September 1st, the LSE announced a partnership with Payward, the parent company of Kraken, to study the tokenization structure of UK stocks. The plan has two layers: one is to create xStocks backed 1:1 by existing stocks; the other is more ambitious, attempting to digitize the entire process from issuance, registration, transfer to settlement. If approved by regulators, xStocks are expected to enter LSE 24 trading in 2027. Many people's first reaction will focus on "24-hour trading." Extending trading hours from six and a half hours to twenty-four is just the most visible change, not the hardest one. The real challenge is: is the on-chain token merely a wrapper that tracks the stock price, or is it a true share with voting rights, dividends, corporate actions, and bankruptcy claims? Prices can be synchronized, but rights cannot be automatically synchronized by simply saying "1:1 backing." This is also why I think this cooperation is significant. The LSE repeatedly emphasizes "retaining shareholder rights," and includes digital securities custody, asset services, and commercial bank fund settlement all in the same framework. What it wants to solve is not just putting a new skin on stocks, but ensuring that after on-chain transfers, registration, clearing, and cash legs still reconcile. For RWA, this is far more important than adding another public chain. Of course, the announcement is still about "research" and " In the early stage of the last $BTC bull market, after the first wave of continuous rise, the market entered a consolidation period lasting 8 months.
Assuming a position of 1 BTC each time, backtesting the market from 2023-2-1 to 2023-10-1. Continuously selling 0.2 Delta 2 DTE (2 days to expiration) options, regardless of whether dynamic contract hedging is done, the final result can profit close to 0.2 BTC.
This corresponds to a current consolidation strategy similar to selling straddle options around the current price with a $1500 range.
Markets always rhyme; using backtesting as a reference, employ strategies with higher win rates to face the future.Evening Pre-Market Review: Bond Market Surges Sharply, Geopolitical Sudden Disturbances, Caution Needed Tonight
Multiple external news events landed simultaneously in the evening, causing divergence among stocks, bonds, and commodities, directly impacting BTC and ETH's overnight opening trends.
US stock futures showed mixed performance: Dow Jones and S&P closed slightly higher, Nasdaq dipped slightly; major European indices generally weakened, with Germany's DAX and UK's FTSE 100 both pulling back.
A sudden risk emerged in the Strait of Hormuz, where two oil tankers hit mines, exploded, and caught fire, escalating tensions in the Middle East again. However, oil prices did not rise as a safe haven; both WTI and Brent crude fell, indicating the market is not immediately pricing in energy inflation risk, and the geopolitical disturbance is more of a pulse event.
The real pressure comes from the global bond market. UK, German, and Italian government bond yields surged across the board. The US 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.816%, hitting a new high since the end of 2023. JPMorgan warned that September historically shows weak stock market performance, and rising bond yields pose significant downside risks to global risk assets.
At the individual stock level, there is a stark contrast: Dell surged 9.76% pre-market, driven by explosive AI server performance and raised full-year guidance, lifting HPE alongside it; SK Hynix fell over 2% pre-market, increasing divergence within the tech sector.
Reflecting on the crypto market, geopolitical news has limited impact; the continuous rise in US Treasury yields is the core factor suppressing valuations. Tonight, focus on whether US Treasury yields can stop rising and await the ADP private payroll data for market action. Before major data releases, avoid heavy chasing of gains and prioritize risk control. Unlike the positive accumulation attitude shown in on-chain behavior, the derivatives market remains mostly on the sidelines.
We know that short liquidations in Bitcoin are the direct source of OI shrinkage. However, when the price hovered between 77,000 and 80,000 for two weeks, the OI stayed around 440,000 to 455,000 contracts with no signs of replenishment.
The price rose 25%, theoretically making shorting more cost-effective; but those who dared to short at 62,000 are hesitant at 78,000. The reasonable explanation is that "shorts have been scared off."
Longs also did not chase. If this wave were a trend reversal, the normal reaction would be for OI to rise along with the price while funding rates remain positive.
Now with OI stagnant, it indicates most people still classify this wave as a short squeeze, not a trend reversal. They are either waiting for a pullback or simply not participating.
From the perspective of judging the cycle bottom, a rebound driven by leverage clearing and spot buying is indeed a common feature of bottom structures. But currently, neither longs nor shorts above are willing to move first, reflecting a cautious sentiment in the derivatives market: waiting and watching.
Additionally, the ELR (leverage ratio) has returned to around 0.26, a two-year low. This means there is little leverage left in the market to be liquidated.
The risk of a chain liquidation event in the short term is very low, and it is unlikely to see violent leverage-driven fluctuations either way.
Perhaps the market is waiting for guidance from the next macro event.BTC is currently undergoing a relatively concentrated macro stress test.
Oil prices are approaching $100, U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, the dollar is strengthening, and the probability of a rate hike in September has been pushed above 60%. Almost all factors unfavorable to risk assets have converged.
But BTC has only pulled back from above $80,000 to around $77,000 so far, without any uncontrolled decline.
Therefore, the $75,000–$78,000 range is very critical.
If BTC can still hold this area despite a strong dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields, it indicates that the funds that entered in August have not withdrawn easily, and market support still exists.
However, if it breaks below and fails to recover for a long time, we should be cautious that this is not just a short-term macro disturbance, but a concentrated realization of profits accumulated from the August rally.
There is no need to rush to guess the top now; first, let's see how long BTC can withstand in such a macro environment.
The above is only a personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR#Nonfarm data divergence before release, September rate hike expectations heat up 🤑 ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job openings, two major data releases back-to-back, left the market confused, with short-term direction still unclear. 😉😏 📊Let's break down the two data points: ✅ August ISM Manufacturing PMI is 54.6. Although still above the 50 expansion-contraction line, indicating manufacturing remains in expansion territory, it has declined from the previous 55.6 and the expected 55.2, showing a clear slowdown in expansion momentum. ✅ July JOLTS job openings at 7.27 million, slightly below the market estimate of 7.31 million; however, compared to the revised 7.18 million in June, job openings have slightly rebounded. Looking at these two data points alone, they neither firmly confirm that the Fed must hike rates nor prove that rate hikes can be paused. Interestingly, the market has already started to price in: the probability of a 25bp rate hike in September has surged to 66%–66.9%, with the 2-year Treasury yield steady around 4.36%. ISM hasn't sharply deteriorated, job openings haven't collapsed, and the labor market is only cooling slowly—far from a complete breakdown. This kind of in-between data is exactly the most frustrating for the market. 😏 ⚠️ Remember: this is just the warm-up! Friday's nonfarm payrolls will be the final judge. ☺️ Looking back last month: July nonfarm employment decreased by 23,000, and May and June data were collectively revised down by 103,000. Two major possibilities ahead: ▪️ If August nonfarm remains weak: the hot rate hike expectations will likely be doused by a bucketThe ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, as a leading indicator for the official nonfarm payrolls, will directly disturb the interest rate expectations for September. The previous ADP value was 44,000, with the market expecting 48,000. Let's analyze the short-term crypto market scenarios in three cases.
1. Reported value > 48,000 (higher than expected)
Employment data is strong, confirming the resilience of the US economy, cooling down rate cut expectations, strengthening the US dollar and US Treasury yields. BTC and ETH will face short-term pressure and test support levels; highly elastic altcoins like $SOL will experience larger declines and are prone to rapid sell-offs.
2. Reported value = 48,000 (as expected)
Data does not exceed expectations, and the market has no new pricing logic. BTC and ETH will maintain their existing range-bound oscillation, making it difficult to break out into a strong trend. Altcoin activity remains sluggish, fluctuating narrowly along with the broader market.
3. Reported value < 48,000 (lower than expected)
Employment recovery is weaker than expected, the market reconsiders rate cuts, and risk appetite rises. BTC and ETH will see a short-term rebound, testing resistance above; funds will flow short-term into small-cap altcoins, driving a wave of recovery.
In summary: the stronger the data, the short-term bearish impact on crypto prices; the weaker the data, the short-term bullish impact; if as expected, mostly sideways consolidation.
A reminder: ADP is only a preliminary reference and cannot fully represent the subsequent official nonfarm payrolls. News-driven moves are mostly pulse-like; do not rely solely on this data for heavy speculative bets. The market also needs to consider Middle East geopolitical factors and US Treasury yields comprehensively.$SPCX This rebound, don't rush to sell, there's potential!
After dropping from 143.5, many think it's going to crash? Don't panic! The price has quietly risen above the short-term moving average, and the MACD indicator has turned positive. This signals the bears are weakening and the bulls are about to take over.
The operation is simple:
Wait for it to pull back to around 141.8-142.1, if it doesn't break below, enter a long position. Set a stop loss at 141; if it breaks the previous low, accept the loss. The first target is 143.5, and if it breaks through, aim directly for 145!📦 Commerce Minister Lutnik made it clear: "Produce in the U.S., and you get tariff exemptions; don't produce in the U.S., and you pay tariffs."
On September 2, Lutnik publicly stated that the Trump administration is considering a new round of import tariffs on semiconductors, potentially increasing taxes on foreign chips further, but will offer tariff exemptions to companies investing in domestic U.S. production—similar to the approach previously taken with the pharmaceutical industry. Trump has already imposed a 25% tariff on some advanced semiconductors; this round could expand to products containing chips, targeting data center servers and consumer electronics.
🤝 The power of this move lies in using tariffs as a "carrot and stick"—want to sell in the U.S.? Build factories in the U.S. TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix are building factories in the U.S., but progress is seriously delayed; tariffs may be implemented much faster than factories can be completed.
💡 For the crypto space: if tariffs expand to data center servers, AI computing costs will directly rise—GPU servers and storage devices are within the scope. Rising costs → AI companies' profits under pressure → weakening the fundamental support for the AI narrative.
🔮 Factory construction cycles take three to five years, but tariffs could be implemented within months. This "effective" strategy means the short-term pain for the AI sector will come sooner than the long-term benefits.
👇 Join the discussion in the comments: do you think this round of tariffs will push up AI computing costs? The script has flipped again.
Last night, just after the US-Iran clash ended and the Washington hawks were still active, BTC hit a low of $76,762, and ETH dropped below $2,400. Then tonight, as soon as the ADP nonfarm data came out—August ADP added only 38,000 jobs, below the expected 48,000, marking the smallest increase since January—the market immediately reversed.
The 30-year US Treasury yield plunged sharply, US stock futures turned positive, BTC rebounded to around $77,200, ETH returned to $2,409, and the 24-hour declines narrowed to 1.9% and 2.6%, respectively. Sandisk (SNDK) also surged pre-market from a drop of over 2% to a rise of 2.5%.
Overnight, the market resumed trading on the logic that "the economy can't hold up, and rate hikes might stop." So, when you connect the dots over the past two days, it becomes clear: geopolitical conflicts push oil prices up → rate hike expectations rise → risk assets get hit; data softens → rate hike expectations cool down → risk assets catch a breather. This back-and-forth happens rapidly. $BTC $ETH $SNDK $CRV is showing solid bullish momentum on OKX after bouncing off its 0.1699 low, currently trading around 0.3618 with active volume, moving averages supporting the trend, and a green daily Supertrend indicator pointing upward.
#DailyOrbit @OKX中文 Still referring to one of this week's macro frameworks — whether employment data can become the key data to block the Fed's September rate hike. The US August small nonfarm payroll data was released, recording 38,000, significantly weaker than expected and the previous value. Moreover, the small nonfarm payroll data has shown a clear weakening trend in private sector employment, from 95,000 in June, to 46,000 in July, and then 38,000 in August. #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 At the same time, combined with yesterday's ISM manufacturing data and July job vacancies, the employment picture before the nonfarm data release is already very clear: the private sector is weakening hiring without large-scale layoffs, meaning companies' willingness to create new jobs is decreasing. This is a typical low employment and low layoff environment. As mentioned in this week's framework, for employment to become data that slows the probability of a September rate hike, employment must not show recession risk but should reasonably weaken. Tonight's small nonfarm data indeed meets this expectation: employment weakened without collapsing, and this data supports reducing the probability of a September rate hike. But is the market really trading according to this expectation? In the bond market, the 2-year US Treasury yield quickly dropped after the data release but then rebounded strongly, indicating that rate hike expectations have indeed weakened, but trading for a slowdown in rate hikes remains difficult. The CME September rate hike probability weakened from 66.8% before the data release to 66.2%, reducing the rate hike probability by 0.6%. From these two data perspectives, the small nonfarm data indeed weakens rate hike expectations, but obviously not enough. The main reasons come from two sides.Federal Reserve's Williams latest speech provides an official interpretation of the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields. He pointed out that bond yields are an important reference for assessing the economy. The current rise in yields is mainly due to the strong U.S. economy, optimistic outlook, and investment demand, while the Middle East conflict also brings some disturbance but is not driven by inflation expectations.
Regarding the current inflation situation, he mentioned tariffs and the Middle East conflict as two major external factors pushing up inflation, but no secondary inflation caused by tariffs has been observed; overall market inflation expectations are controllable, recent inflation data has warmed up somewhat, the overall downward trend remains unchanged, except that service sector inflation remains significantly high and is still a stubborn pain point.
The labor market currently remains robust. The Fed's primary goal is still to bring inflation back to 2%, which needs to be achieved within a foreseeable timeframe.
On the policy front, Williams clearly supports the July FOMC decision, recognizing the current interest rate level as appropriate, and the implementation of monetary policy is generally smooth. Before the next rate meeting, he will continue to collect and assess various economic indicators and will not lock in a policy direction prematurely.
Overall, the speech is neutral to cautious, without releasing clear signals of rate hikes or cuts. The rise in U.S. Treasuries prices more economic resilience rather than runaway inflation, but the presence of service sector inflation also rules out the possibility of rapid easing.
In terms of the market, BTC and ETH still have to endure constraints from the high interest rate environment, with the market highly awaiting key data releases such as non-farm payrolls, and geopolitical conflicts will continue to act as external variables disrupting the market. In handling this freezing case, our engine detected a direct deposit of 31,653.4 USDT to the case address, with the counterparty being an active address associated with HuionePay, and the path also showing Tether blacklist involvement. The client had no idea when such funds entered the chain; these guys really have some nerve. #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 $SNDK According to The New York Times, in May this year, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen and Japan's Finance Minister held a closed-door meeting, engaging in nearly two hours of intense discussions over the yen issue. On the surface, it appeared that the U.S. was stepping in to help stabilize the yen, but behind the scenes, the pressure actually came from the Trump administration.
The core dissatisfaction from the U.S. side stems from the continuous depreciation of the yen. From Trump's perspective, a weak yen gives Japanese exporters a huge price advantage, squeezing U.S. domestic manufacturing.
The U.S. does not want to forcibly prop up the yen through foreign exchange intervention; the real demand is to pressure the Bank of Japan to proactively raise interest rates. Japan's low interest rates combined with fiscal expansion drive massive capital outflows, creating a cycle of "low interest rates - fiscal expansion - yen depreciation."
Once Japan enters a phase of sustained rate hikes, the yen carry trade that has been running for years faces the risk of reversal. Large amounts of capital borrowed in yen and invested overseas will choose to flow back to Japan.
At that time, it will no longer be enough to focus only on the USD/JPY currency pair; the key is to track which markets the capital will withdraw from. BTC, ETH, U.S. stocks, gold — all assets will face repricing.
This is not a crisis that will erupt immediately in the short term; rate hikes and capital repatriation will happen gradually. Many traders focus closely on the Federal Reserve, non-farm payrolls, and U.S. bonds, but often overlook the liquidity variables on Japan's side.
Trump's focus is not just on the yen exchange rate; essentially, it is about leveraging the main gate controlling global capital flows. Going forward, every policy statement from the Bank of Japan deserves close attention.🌍 On the Impact of Global Situations on the Crypto Sphere — Senior Analyst Perspective | September 2, 2026
Currently, Bitcoin is oscillating between $76,800 and $77,500, having retraced from the August peak of about $81,000. The total crypto market cap is around $2.6–2.7 trillion. On the surface, this is a technical correction, but fundamentally it reflects a global situation repricing risk.
⚔️ 1. Geopolitical Conflicts: Short-term Risk Assets, Not Safe Havens
The US-Israel conflict with Iran has entered a "stop-and-go" phase. Navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is severely restricted, and Brent crude oil has climbed back above $90. US strikes on Revolutionary Guard targets and Iran's retaliations against US interests in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan have pushed oil prices and risk premiums higher simultaneously.
The immediate transmission to the crypto market is direct:
• Oil price ↑ → Inflation expectations rise
• Inflation stickiness ↑ → September Fed rate hike probability rises to about 66%–70%
• 10-year US Treasury yield hits this cycle's high around 4.78%
• Interest-free asset Bitcoin is reclassified as a high-beta risk asset and sold off
This explains why BTC fell below 78,000 today, even dipping near 76,000 intraday, rather than a sudden deterioration in on-chain fundamentals.
The Russia-Ukraine war enters its fifth year with repeated but slow peace talks. The market has partially "desensitized," but any substantive escalation will still compress risk appetite.
Conclusion: In the first 24–72 hours after conflict news, crypto often falls first. Treating it like gold to buy immediately risks short-term losses.
🛢️ 2. Energy Inflation vs. De-dollarization Narrative: Short-term Bearish, Mid-to-Long-term Bullish
The global situation's impact on crypto is "layered":
Short-term (weeks): Bearish
High oil prices reinforce "stagflation concerns," US Treasury sell-offs, dollar strength, and liquidity tightening. The roughly 25% rebound in August partly came from US Treasury repo expectations and short covering, not a full global risk retreat. Now, with geopolitical tensions reignited, that premium is being withdrawn.
Mid-to-long-term (seasons to years): Structurally bullish
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit coinciding with the G20 reflects order fragmentation: on one side, China, Russia, Iran, etc., pushing for an "equal and orderly multipolar world," and on the other, the US and Europe internally consumed by energy shocks and war costs. The denser sanction system makes on-chain settlements, stablecoin cross-border use, and non-dollar reserve assets increasingly necessary. Bitcoin's "digital gold + neutral settlement layer" narrative is not just rhetoric in a fragmented world but a hedging tool.
Note: This bullish logic will only materialize after oil prices retreat from highs and rate hike expectations cool down. Currently, the market is pricing in "conflict premiums," not "de-dollarization."
🇺🇸 3. US Political Clock: September More Critical Than the Battlefield
Two domestic events will determine Q4 momentum:
1 September 15–16 FOMC
New Chair Kevin Warsh personally understands crypto, but Jackson Hole statements prioritized "inflation suppression." Market rate hike bets are heating up, a near-term negative for BTC. Warsh will not ease for crypto.
2 November Midterm Elections + CLARITY Act Window
The crypto industry has invested about $189 million to influence elections, one of the largest corporate backers this cycle. Regulatory clarity is the true midterm catalyst; however, the bill's passage probability is low, and expectation gaps may move markets more than the bill itself.
In midterm election years, US stocks historically often hit phase lows around early September. Bitcoin is highly macro-driven and unlikely to be immune to this seasonality.
📈 4. Trend Judgment: Defend Positions First, Then Talk Breakouts
Asset
Key Levels
Logic
BTC
Support 75,000–76,000; Resistance 80,000–82,000
Holding 75,000 keeps August rebound structure intact; losing it targets the 70,000 psychological level
ETH/SOL and other high-beta
Weaker than BTC
First to be cut when risk appetite shrinks
OKB
Around $106, still about +23% in last 30 days
Platform token follows beta but with greater elasticity than BTC; short-term pullbacks with the market are normal
On-chain is not collapsing: some whales still accumulating between 100–1,000 and over 10,000 tokens. This looks more like "rebalancing under macro pressure," not a 2018 or 2022-style faith collapse.
Operational framework (not advice):
• Conflict escalation + oil price surge + rate hikes landing → control leverage, wait for volatility release
• Improved Hormuz navigation, oil price retreat, rate hike expectation cooling → pullbacks near 75,000 have "macro turning point" significance
• Altcoin season not confirmed yet; first watch if BTC can reclaim and hold above 81,000
🎯 5. Summary in One Sentence
The global situation's impact on crypto is not a fairy tale of "war means price rise," but:
Conflict raises oil prices and interest rates → short-term risk appetite withdrawal; order fragmentation and deepening sanctions → mid-to-long-term strategic value uplift for neutral assets.
We are currently in the first phase. A fisherman's wait: the fog hasn't cleared, so place hooks near support levels rather than chasing highs and lows amid news peaks.
#Bitcoin #GlobalSituation #CryptoMacro #USIranConflict #FederalReserve #MidtermElections #OKB #DigitalGold #Hormuz
— For research and discussion only, not investment advice. Markets carry risks; decisions require independence. The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds hit 3% on September 1st, the first time since 1996, with the 30-year yield approaching a historic high of 4.205%. This figure, regarded globally as a cornerstone of interest rates, is shifting. The root cause lies in yen carry trades, where institutions borrow low-interest yen to invest in dollars and high-yield assets. The Bank for International Settlements estimates the offshore scale could reach $500 billion, doubling since August 2024. At that time, a slight rate hike by the Bank of Japan triggered a chain of liquidations, causing Bitcoin to drop 24% in a single week. Now, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has publicly pressured Japan to raise rates at the G20, and the Japanese government has also signaled support. Overnight index swaps show a 92% probability of a rate hike on September 18th. The arbitrage spread has narrowed from 250 basis points to 225 basis points, and with each narrowing, the holding cost of leveraged positions becomes heavier. The yen-dollar exchange rate hovers around 160, near the intervention red line; if it quickly pulls back to 150, the chain reaction triggered by the 6% yen appreciation in 2024 could replay on a larger scale. Before September 18th, the market stands at a high-probability policy event betting table, and all assets relying on cheap yen support face repricing. Risk warning: Global liquidity tightening and exchange rate volatility may trigger severe asset shocks; please manage leveraged positions cautiously. $BTC $ETH $SOL📝 Main Text Brothers, today's market has some things going on. BTC fell below 77000, ETH lost 2400, SOL had a third consecutive day of red candles. The three major mainstream coins weakened simultaneously; it's not an issue with individual coins, but the entire market is under pressure. BTC's lowest in the past 24 hours dropped to 76420, a decline of over 2.46%. ETH retraced from a high of 2565 to the current price of 2384. SOL fell from 107 to 98, dropping more than 8% in three days. All three coins are falling, but the reasons and extent of the declines differ. This article will break down three questions: why the drop, how far it will go, and what to do next. --- First, the macro perspective: the core contradiction lies in US Treasury yields and rate hike expectations. The direct trigger for BTC falling below 77000 this morning was US Treasury yields soaring to 4.81%, a new high for the year. Rate hike expectations suddenly intensified—after Walsh's speech at Jackson Hole, the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 35% to 65%. The US also launched strikes on targets inside Iran, worsening geopolitical conflicts and sharply increasing risk-off sentiment. The double negative hit caused panic selling in the crypto market. The market now bets 66% on a 25 basis point rate hike in September. Everyone's eyes are on Friday's nonfarm payroll data. If nonfarm exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations will be confirmed, and the market may drop further; if employment is weak, rate hike expectations will cool, possibly leading to a rebound. The key divergence is—Walsh has already said "inflation is still too high," and as long as employment doesn't collapse, he has reason to continue suppressing inflation. This is#OpenAIAdsRevenue1B changes the OpenAI story. ChatGPT isn't just monetizing people who pay for subscriptions or APIs anymore. It's starting to monetize attention itself. That creates another engine to fund compute while making the IPO case look more diversified. But ad revenue only becomes truly valuable if users stay engaged and advertisers keep spending. The bigger question is whether ChatGPT becomes another place to advertise, or a new layer between consumers and the entiTrump is targeting chips, can the crypto world dodge this time? The tariff stick is coming again!
The market is unsettled today. Bitcoin $BTC dropped directly to around $76,500, and Ethereum also fell below 2400. The conflict between the US and Iran flared up again, and risk assets are all crashing.
But something harsher is coming. The Trump administration is brewing a new round of semiconductor tariffs. Commerce Secretary Lutnick said: if produced in the US, tariffs are waived; if not produced in the US, you pay. And this time it’s not just the chips themselves, but also chip-related products like servers and consumer electronics that will suffer.
Honestly, this matter is highly relevant to our crypto world. When tariffs increase, inflation can’t be controlled, and the Fed dares not cut interest rates. What does the crypto world fear most? It fears tightening liquidity and sustained high interest rates. Plus, mining machine costs may rise, miner profits get squeezed, and the hash rate market will also be turbulent.
Right now, both bulls and bears are betting. My judgment is, don’t rush to bottom-fish in the short term; wait until the tariff policy becomes clear. It’s better to miss out than to catch a falling knife at this position.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 #财报观察员：戴尔业绩超预期，博通雪花接棒 $ETH $BZ $SNDK Can SanDisk hold above 1500 this time? SNDK's gains this year have been very exaggerated, and market expectations for it are also very high. Analyst target prices remain optimistic; for example, an aggregation from one site shows an average target of about 2125 from 23 analysts, but the highest and lowest targets reach 3600 and 1000 respectively, showing huge divergence. Meanwhile, the biggest risk for US stocks today is not SNDK itself, but the macro environment: the US 10-year Treasury yield is already close to 4.8%, and oil prices are rising, which is not very friendly to high-valuation AI/semiconductor stocks. Currently, I still lean toward SNDK being able to hold 1500, but the "truly safe" level is not 1500, but regaining 1600. Holding 1500 = no damage; breaking through 1600 = turning strong; breaking below 1450 = caution; breaking below 1400 = short-term trend clearly deteriorates. $BTC $ETH #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 #财报观察员：戴尔业绩超预期，博通雪花接棒 Micron has issued the highest performance bonuses in years to appease employees and prevent strikes, indirectly confirming the industry's reality: AI storage orders are booming, capacity is highly strained, and real demand truly exists. HBM capacity orders are already booked through 2026, and DRAM and NAND prices and demand are recovering in sync. The company's fundamentals are on a strong cyclical upward trajectory. This logic also applies to the crypto market. Many projects show improving narratives, data, and ecosystems, yet their coin prices continue to decline; there are also many tokens without substantive business, relying solely on emotional speculation to keep surging.
A common mistake many traders make is equating "improving fundamentals" directly with "immediate price increase." Fundamentals determine the long-term outcome but cannot dictate the market movement in the next few days or weeks. Positive news ≠ instant rise, negative news ≠ immediate fall. Micron's case offers a lesson to all traders: do not simply use current fundamentals to predict short-term prices. Recognizing value is one thing; waiting for the market to complete pricing is another. Good companies also go through long valuation digestion periods, and similarly, quality crypto projects can experience phases where fundamentals improve but coin prices consolidate or pull back.#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
When risk rises and people immediately ask "reduce position or hedge," I think this question itself is a trap—those who choose one or the other usually end up getting hit from both sides.
My sequence is always three steps, survival first, then allocation:
Step one: Cut vulnerability first, not all positions
Close leverage first, reduce contract positions first. For altcoins with "story tokens" or those with shrinking daily volume, reduce immediately without waiting for a rebound. I keep the core BTC position but never hold full and tough it out. The market doesn’t fear a drop, it fears you getting liquidated at the worst time.
Step two: Put the reduced funds into "real hedges," not fake hedges
Many in crypto treat BTC as a hedge, but BTC has a 0.58 beta with the Nasdaq and gets hit during macro panic just the same. After reducing positions, I prioritize converting to USDC/USDT stablecoins (keeping ammo) plus a small portion of gold/tokenized gold for cross-asset hedging. Gold is also shaking under pressure from the dollar and real rates this round, but its negative correlation with crypto only shows during black swan events.
Step three: Keep trigger conditions, don’t guess the bottom
If key support breaks, move to stablecoins; if ETFs have continuous net inflows and volatility falls, then gradually convert stablecoins back to $BTC and $ETH. Cash (stablecoins) is not a viewpoint, it’s an option.
In short: When risk rises = first reduce vulnerable positions → convert to stablecoins + gold → wait for signals to replenish. Holding full and waiting for "gold to save you" or stubbornly not reducing is lazy logic.📊 FACT:
On September 2, BTC briefly dropped to about $76,400, then rebounded to around $77K; during the same period, WTI crude oil broke through $90, and the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 4.8%. More importantly, the market's pricing for a Fed rate hike in September rose from about 40% to 68% within a week. 🔎 WHY:
The issue is not just "war negatively impacting BTC." Rising oil prices → increased inflation expectations → higher long-term interest rates → pressure on high-risk asset valuations. In other words, BTC is now facing liquidity and interest rate dynamics, not just internal capital competition within the crypto market. 💡 INSIGHT:
I believe the market is shifting from "BTC rise driven by ETFs" to the stage of "whether macro conditions can sustain this rally." In August, the US spot BTC ETF net inflow was about $3.5 billion, so capital still provides support, but the $80K level is no longer just a psychological barrier; it is becoming a cross-validation zone for institutional capital costs and macro pressure. ⚠️ RISK:
If oil prices fall rapidly and employment data weakens, the current rate hike expectations may quickly reverse; conversely, if interest rates continue to rise, BTC could face pressure again. 💬 QUESTION:
Do you think BTC should focus more on ETF capital flows or US Treasury yields next? #BTCGoldCorrelationTest $BTC $ETH $SOL #NFPTestsSeptHikeOd LSE Teams Up with Kraken to Launch Tokenized Stocks: A True Asset Revolution or an Advanced Shadow Game?
The century-old London Stock Exchange (LSE) announced a partnership with Kraken's parent company to bring the 100 largest UK listed companies by market cap onto the blockchain, launching the first batch of xStocks in the coming weeks, with plans to enable 24/7 trading by 2027.
The direct involvement of a traditional exchange appears to be a milestone for Real World Assets (RWA) entering the core financial domain.
But before getting excited, one must recognize a key legal and technical boundary—currently, xStocks are essentially "synthetic price exposures" that track stock price performance 1:1; buying these tokens does not equate to actually holding the underlying original shares through a broker, nor does it grant statutory shareholder voting rights.
If tokenization merely "maps stock prices onto the blockchain," it is fundamentally no different from the Contracts for Difference (CFDs) that traditional finance has played with for decades. The core point of LSE's involvement is never about issuing a few more shadow vouchers tracking prices, but whether it can leverage its exchange license and clearing qualifications to truly embed regulated stock registration, instant settlement, and shareholder rights natively into smart contracts.
The first half of tokenized stocks revolves around off-exchange price mirroring; the second half will be the institutional restructuring that touches ownership and settlement systems.
#伦敦证券交易所与Payward拟推英股代币化 This is the biggest misconception in the market: equating "falling a lot" with "being wrongly sold off and waiting for a rebound." The rebound of SaaS is not simply driven by market sentiment warming up; it is the financial reports that truly rescue the logic. However, many cryptocurrencies only have sentiment, not financial reports.
Looking at the current market, BTC and ETH have institutional funds and spot ETFs as underlying support, providing a fundamental narrative; but the vast majority of small and mid-cap altcoins should not simply apply the story of "SaaS can recover to new highs after falling." After panic selling, whether they can recover depends on whether the project has real implementation, not just betting on market sentiment warming up.
The market will always create various doomsday narratives; some panic is just sentiment-driven wrong selling; some declines are the bursting of narrative bubbles. To distinguish between the two, you need to see if there is solid value support at the base.
What do you think about bottom-fishing after panic crashes? Let's discuss in the comments.The conflict between the US and Iran flares up again, why did $BTC first break below $76,500?
The crypto market suddenly changed after the US military attacked Iran again, oil prices rose, US Treasury yields briefly increased, and BTC immediately fell below $76,500.
This indicates that when local geopolitical conflicts occur, the capital market still regards Bitcoin as a high-volatility risk asset rather than a "digital gold" to buy.
War drives up oil prices, which also increases inflation and interest rate pressures.
To reduce risk, funds usually prioritize selling assets with good liquidity and high volatility, and BTC, which trades 24/7, naturally takes the brunt.
Subsequently, US Treasury yields across all maturities collectively fell, with the 30-year yield dropping to 5.25%, giving the market a temporary breather, but this level is still relatively high, and macro pressures remain unresolved.
On-chain funds are also diverging: the Bhutan government address transferred out 400 BTC, worth about $30.62 million, bringing potential selling pressure.
Strategy resumed buying coins and stated that net debt has dropped to zero, with long-term treasury demand still present.
The current market is a contest between macro fund withdrawal and long-term buying support.
If oil prices cool down and yields continue to fall, BTC is expected to return to $80,000.
If the conflict escalates, $70,000 may become the next support level, and altcoins will face greater pressure.
#BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验 🚨 The more chaotic Iran becomes, the more worth watching BTC? The real opportunity might be hidden in the panic.
Last night, as soon as the airstrike news broke, BTC directly dropped below 77,000, gold also retreated, the Dow Jones fell, and the market instantly panicked.
But I actually noticed a detail:
BTC fell from 81,000 to 76,930 in just one day, then rebounded to 78,500; on the second drop, it surprisingly stabilized around 77,000.
The lows are rising, but selling pressure hasn't continued to expand.
In the short term, geopolitical conflicts will certainly pressure risk assets; but if oil prices keep rising and inflation expectations heat up, whether funds will start looking for "hard assets" like BTC again is the more important point to watch.
So my thinking is simple:
Below 77,000, buy in batches, don’t chase the rally—
77,000 / 76,000 / 75,000
Buy if you can catch it, don’t chase if you can’t.
This game won’t end in a day; what’s really worth watching is where the chips flow after the panic.
Look back in two weeks, then you’ll know whether 77,000 now is danger or opportunity.
#DailyOrbit How hot has Robinhood Chain been these days? I'm not a professional dog-hitter and can't judge from a meme perspective, but from today's performance of $ARB and $UNI, it's already quite clear: Robinhood has generated about $13.05M in fees in two months since launch, of which about $1.3M was allocated to Arbitrum; Uniswap even processed over 7 million transactions yesterday, setting a new record.
With Robinhood's catalyst, L2 tokens finally have a more concrete income return path. Of course, we can't ignore the unlocking of about 139.2M ARB on September 23 despite ARB's surge, since network earnings don't mean circulating supply pressure is absent.
Uniswap's data also shows that DeFi users and trading activity are returning amid the enthusiasm brought by Robinhood. However, the old problem remains: high Uniswap fees do not equal UNI holders receiving equivalent income; these are two separate accounts.ADP data has been released, lower than expected, which theoretically should drive $BTC up because the small non-farm employment market shows cooling, indicating it could meet the Federal Reserve's expectations. However, Bitcoin's volatility is not significant, which I think precisely indicates that the correlation between Bitcoin and inflation outlook may be decreasing during this period. So, what is it related to?
The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds.
BlackRock positions Bitcoin as an alternative to currency. The rise in U.S. Treasury yields indicates a weakening of the U.S. dollar credit system, which theoretically favors Bitcoin's rise. But in the short term, it is bearish for Bitcoin because the rise in Treasury yields will drag down the economy.
The main driver of Bitcoin's rise now is liquidity, and the source of liquidity is ETFs and institutions, especially U.S. institutional buyers. In a bad macro environment where the economy might collapse, isn't it better for institutions to hold cash and gold? Why still hold Bitcoin, which still carries high risk?
Besides tracking U.S. inflation data (non-farm, CPI, PPI, etc.), ETF inflows, and Coinbase's Bitcoin premium index, it is also very important to pay attention to the situation of the U.S. 10-year and 20-year Treasury bonds, which is a key indicator the U.S. Treasury Secretary is currently focusing on.
My observation is that non-farm employment will not fall significantly below expectations; it will still decline and even reach a recent new high until September 9, when the U.S. Treasury officially begins balance sheet reduction. We will then look at the CPI situation afterward.$ETH August candle closed +32.5% at 2,468. Its 2,567 high cleared every monthly high of the last 6 months. First time since January.
5 times before in a bear market. 4 were higher a year later.
0:37 the monthly
1:23 the precedents
5:28 the levels
Not financial advice.#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds #RobinhoodChainRWAvsMemes #DellAIServerBeat #Hormuz risk heats up, energy inflation draws attention
The leader has something to say
Currently, I only hold a ZEC short position.
All BTC long positions have been closed. Geopolitical conflicts combined with Japanese government bonds breaking 3%—these two factors together have crushed the market. If the long positions can’t hold, just accept it.
The ZEC short position remains, currently in profit. Entered around 830, daily candles have consecutively closed bearish, and the short-term bullish structure is being eroded. After the ETF bullish effect was realized, there is a lack of new catalysts; the long-term structural issues in the privacy coin sector remain unchanged.
Operation plan: continue holding the short position, move stop loss up to 820, mainly to break even. Target range is 600 to 650. Control position size well, do not hold through heavy losses.
On the market front, oil prices remain above 90, diesel crack spreads are high, and energy inflation expectations are rising. Japanese 10-year government bonds broke 3%, and arbitrage trade closures act as a drainage effect on high-volatility assets. The macro environment is unfriendly to risk assets.
Before the direction becomes clear, I won’t easily take long positions. Wait for a real pullback before considering.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop losses on your trades. Good luck.There has always been a concern in the market: the continuous issuance of debt by the U.S. Treasury and the surge in government bond supply will squeeze market liquidity, disrupt the Fed's balance sheet reduction process, and even force the central bank to purchase bonds, undermining the independence of monetary policy. However, this statement indicates that, according to the Fed's assessment, the Treasury's debt issuance pace and debt maturity arrangements have not yet disrupted the functioning of the money market. Existing tools are sufficient to absorb the disturbances caused by government bond supply, and the Fed will not be forced to change interest rate and balance sheet reduction plans due to debt pressure. Combined with Williams' previous series of remarks: service sector inflation remains high, but inflation expectations are controllable, tariffs will not cause a second round of inflation shocks, and more data needs to be collected to make judgments for the next FOMC meeting. Taken together, the Fed's current core logic is very clear: external debt and fiscal factors are only secondary variables; the core anchor of monetary policy remains inflation, employment, and other real economy data, and it will not be hijacked by fluctuations in the U.S. Treasury market. Reflecting on the trading floor, long-term U.S. Treasury yields have recently fluctuated at high levels, and this statement slightly alleviates the market's short-term concerns about "fiscal pressure forcing the Fed to ease." For risk assets such as BTC and ETH, this means: as long as inflation data remains stubborn, even if the U.S. Treasury market fluctuates, the Fed will not easily turn to easing, and the high interest rate environment will continue. ETH at $2380, are you buying the dip or running away?
First, look at the surface: geopolitical conflicts, risk assets crashing together.
Today's main driver isn't a problem on the ETH chain, but the US and Iran clashing again. Oil prices surged to $95, US Treasury yields touched 4.81%, and risk assets all retreated. ETH fell along with BTC but dropped less than SOL — which is good news: it fell less than others.
The weekly chart still stands above the breakout level, while the daily chart has hit the lower edge of the flag pattern. Losing 2438, next watch if 2350 can hold.
First thing: today's drop isn't because ETH is weak, it's macro forces dumping.
Major funds pulled ETH from 1850 in August to 2550, nearly a 40% rise. Now it’s retraced to 2380, down less than 7%.
But what really worries the market are three words: more rate hikes.
On September 16 FOMC, the market’s pricing for a "rate hike" has risen to 35%-68%. Oil price rises heat inflation expectations, and the market quickly shifts from "no change in September" to "possible hike." Nonfarm payrolls, CPI, and FOMC all cluster in the first two weeks of September. ETH isn’t trading an upgrade now, it’s trading "will there be another rate hike?"
Second thing: staking is locked, whales are accumulating, retail is cutting losses.
Staking rate is 35%, with 2.07 million ETH queued to enter, waiting 36 days, and almost zero in the exit queue. People wanting to stake are still waiting, no large-scale exits.
ETF net assets are $15.2 billion, accounting for 5.2% of ETH market cap, with $1.85 billion inflow in August. BitMine keeps adding, with whales net increasing 430,000 ETH in August.
But staking yield is only 2.6%, below short-term US Treasuries, so it’s not "yield-driven," more like long-term funds locking chips.
Third thing: the candlesticks tell you — 2380 is a battlefield, not a decided victory or defeat.
Weekly structure: August’s big bullish candle broke through the downtrend line since the 2025 high, with a key retracement at 0.618 Fibonacci = 2438. Now 2380 is slightly below this level; this week’s close is very critical.
Daily structure: from 1850 to 2550 in August, then formed a flag between 2350-2550. Price repeatedly failed to break 2480-2550, and today broke the lower edge at 2380-2400.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
- Staking rate 35%, 36-day queue, locked in firmly
- ETF inflows for 12 consecutive days, institutions accumulating
- Whales net added 430,000 ETH in August
- Weekly breakout followed by pullback, mid-term structure intact
On the other side:
- Geopolitical conflict + oil at $95 + US Treasury yield 4.81%
- Whales moving 170,000 ETH to exchanges
- September FOMC rate hike expectations rising (35%-68%)
- 2380 is the lower edge of the flag; if lost, next support at 2220
Upside: 2438 (bull-bear boundary) → 2480-2550 (supply zone) → 2780 → 2920
Downside: 2350-2370 (first defense) → 2220 → 2050-2000 (mid-term lifeline)
Trading strategy
Scenario A: Hold 2350-2380
Wait for volume to pick up and stop falling, close with a lower shadow, then try a small long position with stop loss at 2345-2350, target 2420-2450 → 2480-2520.
Scenario B: Break below 2350 and fail to rebound
Reduce longs or stay out at 2360-2380 rebound. Next buy point at 2280-2220, worse case 2050-2000.
Scenario C: Reclaim 2438 and close daily above it
Add mid-term longs on pullback to 2438-2450, target 2550 → 2780 → 2920. Before holding above, treat 2550 as resistance, not breakout.
Before September 4 Nonfarm, September 11 CPI, and September 16 FOMC — reduce leverage one notch or keep only spot/low leverage. Watch oil prices and 10-year Treasury yields before ETH on-chain data.
ETH is now in the "mid-term breakout pullback confirmation" window —
99% of people see the drop and think "trend reversal, crash coming," but August’s big bullish candle tells you: the breakout is real, and the pullback is real too.
At 2380, do you choose fear or discipline?
The bull market won’t end because of one day’s drop, but your account can go to zero from betting full position on direction.
What is your ETH cost?
At 2380, do you buy the dip or wait and see?
$BTC $ETH $SOL The ADP employment data surprised on the downside, but Bitcoin briefly rebounded — the market doesn't trust the employment data
US August ADP employment increased by only 38,000, far below the expected 47,000, marking the smallest increase since January.
After the data release, $BTC saw a brief rebound, rising intraday from a low of $76,483 to around $77,600. $ETH also recovered in sync, slowly approaching around $2,430 in the afternoon.
However, the rebound volume narrowed, with BTC oscillating narrowly near the $77,600 resistance level without a decisive breakout. ETH then retreated to fluctuate near $2,420.
Why did the market reject the weak employment data?
CME FedWatch shows the probability of a rate hike in September has surged to 66.9%. The weak employment is interpreted as "economic slowdown but stubborn inflation," making the Fed more likely to continue raising rates. Coupled with escalating US-Iran conflicts pushing oil prices to $94, non-interest-bearing assets are the first to be hit in a high-interest-rate environment.
The ADP disappointment only provided a brief buffer; the rebound is an opportunity to reduce positions or set stop losses, not a signal to rush in and catch the falling knife. The real test will be Friday's nonfarm payrolls. Today the storage chip sector collectively took a hit, but the story is much more interesting than it appears on the surface.
First, let's talk about SanDisk $xSNDK, which closed at $1,536.87 on September 1, down 1.9%. It looks ordinary, but if you look at this year's range, it has risen 539% year-to-date, clearly a core beneficiary of the storage super cycle. The latest quarterly revenue was $8.965 billion, with a net profit of $6.9 billion—these results would be considered stellar in any sector.
As for SK Hynix $xSKHY, which only officially listed its ADR on Nasdaq on July 13, it closed at $160.78, down 2.31%, while the Korean main stock was even worse pre-market, plunging 3.6%. The logic is clear: it is the absolute leader in HBM, the lifeblood of AI server memory, but today it was hit hard by oil prices and US Treasury yields, and as growth stock sentiment weakened, it was the first to fall.
Micron $xMU also fell 2.6% overnight, with the entire storage chain dragged down by macro sentiment.
My understanding is that this storage pullback is emotional, not fundamental. The demand curves for HBM and NAND have not changed, and AI capital expenditure is still accelerating. SanDisk's surge has already reflected some expectations, so be cautious chasing highs, but SKHY, which just went public and has pulled back to around 160, is actually worth putting into the watchlist. In short, the industry is still prosperous; you just need to time it right and not sell gold for scrap in panic. The latest statement from Federal Reserve's Williams emphasized the need to gather more economic data to inform decision-making for the next FOMC meeting. Combining this with his previous remarks, it is clear that the Fed currently maintains an overall wait-and-see stance. Essentially, this statement is typical Fed official rhetoric, releasing no clear hawkish or dovish signals and refusing to pre-commit to a policy direction for the market. In other words, the final action at the September rate-setting meeting will entirely depend on the performance of core indicators such as nonfarm payrolls, wages, CPI, and PCE. After the news broke, U.S. Treasury bonds remained volatile, and the market was reluctant to heavily bet on a one-sided trend. Applied to the crypto market, specifically BTC and ETH, this means liquidity expectations will not change prematurely. Until key data is released, the market will remain in uncertainty, and high-volatility assets are more susceptible to being shaken by news-driven fluctuations.🚨 RISK-ON OR DEBASEMENT – WHAT STORY IS THE MARKET TELLING, AND COULD BTC BE MISUNDERSTOOD? There's a question I think will determine the direction of crypto in the near future: Is this rally RISK-ON... or is it just a DEBASEMENT TRADE? They sound similar because both can cause: ₿ BTC to rise. But in reality... these two stories are completely different. And if you confuse them... you might choose the wrong entire portfolio. This is what I'm observing. ⸻ 💣 WHAT IS RISK-ON? Risk-on means: Investors are willing Finally, let me share with you my views on the current market situation from the news perspective. The overall cryptocurrency market currently shows a divergence pattern of "institutions continuously entering, prices under short-term pressure." Bitcoin spot ETF capital flows have been fluctuating recently. Previously, there was a net inflow exceeding $2.7 billion over nine consecutive trading days. It once turned into a net outflow due to hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials, but after entering September, it quickly stabilized, with a single-day inflow exceeding $200 million again. BlackRock IBIT contributed the main funds, indicating that this pullback is more of a technical correction rather than a real capital withdrawal. Looking ahead, whether Bitcoin can firmly stand above $80,000 again depends on whether ETF capital flows can continue to be positive. As long as there is no continuous negative turn, this consolidation remains within a healthy range. Ethereum is currently the most stable performer. ETF capital inflows have extended for eleven consecutive trading days, accumulating over $1.6 billion, marking the second-longest continuous inflow record this year, with institutional allocation demand continuing to build up. Looking forward, as long as this capital momentum does not break, Ethereum has the chance to be the first among several mainstream coins to break out independently and challenge previous highs again. Solana's ETF capital inflow exceeded $170 million in August, marking the strongest single month this year. Bitwise's staking ETF has become the first product to surpass $1 billion in scale; however, after entering September, the speed of capital inflow slowed down, coupled with a previously overheated technical aspect, the short-term trend is weak and consolidating. The future market needs to observe the capitalFederal Reserve's Williams publicly stated clear support for the July FOMC Federal Open Market Committee meeting outcome. Combined with his previous remarks on elevated service sector inflation and controllable inflation expectations, this further outlines the Fed's current overall policy stance. Reflecting in the trading market, U.S. Treasury yields remain volatile. For BTC and ETH, the official's reiteration of existing policies means the short-term liquidity environment will not undergo sudden changes. As long as the stubborn state of service sector inflation remains unchanged, high interest rates will continue to suppress risk assets; only clear downward signals in employment and inflation will open the door to easing expectations. Additionally, Middle East geopolitical conflicts and oil price fluctuations remain external disturbance variables that will indirectly affect inflation prospects, which the Fed will also include in subsequent assessments. Do not rely on a single official statement to directly bet on the market; all Fed policy adjustments ultimately anchor on solid economic data.Small Nonfarm Payrolls Miss! Yet US Stock Futures Rise, Crypto Folks Don't Be Fooled
Tonight the small nonfarm payroll data came out: 38,000, expected 48,000, the worst since January. Logically, such poor employment should cause panic, but the three major US stock index futures all turned positive, with Nasdaq futures directly turning up. The 30-year US Treasury yield plunged 5 basis points from its high.
What does this mean? The market is betting the Fed won't dare to raise rates anymore, and might even cut rates early.
But our crypto world is suffering today, with the US-Iran conflict, Bitcoin dropped directly to around $76,500. Even Bitcoin can't hold up, altcoins are in complete chaos.
Tycoon’s judgment: With employment data this bad, the probability of a Fed rate hike in September is actually decreasing. Once rate hike expectations fade, it's very bullish for risk assets. This crypto downturn might be a golden pit.
What do you think? Let's chat in the comments. At this level, are you bottom-fishing or running away?
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 #财报观察员：戴尔业绩超预期，博通雪花接棒 $BTC $ETH $BZ $PUMP USDT 50x short, entry at 0.004495, mark at 0.004254, floating profit 268.07%. The chart shows a weak horizontal consolidation at a low after a downtrend, with a complete bearish structure. Current affairs: Pump.fun remains the largest launchpad on Solana, on 4/28 it conducted a one-time burn of about $370 worth (approximately 36% of circulation), and locked a one-year "50% net income buyback and burn" contract, with an annualized income of about 340 million, cumulative burn exceeding 400 million, and about 15% of total supply permanently removed — but the key turning point is the buyback ratio cut from 100% to 50%,
and this is a limited one-year contract, with a huge question mark on whether it will be renewed upon expiration; meanwhile, the 12-month cliff for the team + early investors' 330B tokens expired on 7/12, after which about 6.875B tokens will be released linearly each month until July 2029, and on 9/12 another 9.17 billion will unlock (accounting for 0.9% of total supply, market value about 1.3%, 60% held by insiders/investors). Price dimension: current price about 0.0042-0.0046, market cap about 1.8 billion, FDV about 4.5 billion, down more than 60% from ATH (0.0121),
although it rebounded recently due to income briefly surpassing Hyperliquid, Q2 income about 212 million is clearly weaker than Q1 about 295 million, with income highly dependent on Meme speculation cycles. Technical levels: around 0.00425, resistance at 0.00435-0.00450, support at 0.0040/0.0038; 50x trailing stop profit at 0.00435, reduce/exit at 0.00450, no position held over the 9/12 unlock date. $BTC $ETH #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 $BTC is hovering around $76.9K after another pullback.
The 4H chart still looks weak, with $76.4K as the key level to watch. Can $BTC hold here, or are we heading for another leg down?
100x leverage might look tempting 😅 but there’s almost zero room for mistakes.
High leverage = high risk.
Manage your position size, set your invalidation, and don’t let FOMO control your decisions.
Missing a trade is better than losing.
Sometimes, NOT trading is the best trade. 📉 #NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds Japanese listed company Remixpoint (stock code: 3825) did something quite extreme — sold all altcoins and will only hold Bitcoin from now on. On September 1st, Remixpoint liquidated all its altcoin holdings in a single transaction, involving ETH, SOL, XRP, and DOGE. What exactly was sold? · ETH: 901.45 coins, sold for 353.4 million yen, earning a profit of 60.2 million yen · SOL: 13,920 coins, sold for 227.9 million yen, earning a profit of 49.3 million yen · XRP: 1,191,200 coins, sold for 260.4 million yen, earning a profit of 11.52 million yen · DOGE: 2,802,300 coins, sold for 37.08 million yen, incurring a loss of 3.26 million yen Total sale amount: 878.8 million yen (approximately 5.5 million USD), total profit: 117.8 million yen (approximately 736,800 USD). After the liquidation, Remixpoint's crypto asset portfolio is 100% concentrated in Bitcoin, currently holding about 1,506 BTC. Why did the company do this? The announcement states it is to "promote portfolio selection and concentration." But looking closely at the data, there are a few points worth pondering: First, Bitcoin can generate stable passive income. From February to August 2026, Remixpoint earned 14.92 BTC in interest through its Bitcoin lending program, equivalent to about 164 million yen. Holding ontoNext week: This round of pullback may not be over yet; it depends on where support is found!
More noteworthy than the current daily-level retracement is that the previous driving forces of the rise—ETF inflows, short covering, and liquidity expectations—are all cooling down.
My judgment: The probability of a dip first and then recovery within a week is higher; overall, the market is oscillating weakly, and there are currently no conditions to directly restart the main upward trend.
Previously, $BTC surged into the $80,000 resistance zone; I do not recommend chasing the rally. Now the price has fallen about 6% from $81,500, retesting the $75,000–$76,000 range, indicating that the overhead positions and profit-taking are indeed heavy.
Technically, the market has shifted from offense to repair.
The daily MACD shows a high-level death cross with green bars, indicating a clear weakening of upward momentum, but the KDJ J value has already dropped below zero, so short-term selling pressure is releasing quickly. Continuing to short now is also not cost-effective.
From $57,800 to $81,500, the 38.2% retracement level is about $72,400, and the 50% retracement level is about $69,600.
Key levels to watch next:
$74,000–$75,500: Holding this range could lead to a rebound above $78,000
$72,000–$73,000: Quick recovery here is still considered normal correction
$69,000–$70,000: Losing this daily level indicates the strong rebound structure is broken
The external environment is temporarily bearish; U.S. Treasury yields are rising, the Nasdaq is falling, and the market is re-trading inflation and interest rate hike risks. ETF funds are also fluctuating; institutions have not clearly withdrawn, but the willingness to chase at highs is declining.
This pullback is the first pressure test after the rebound. The most important thing in the coming week is to observe whether ETFs, U.S. stocks, and spot buyers are willing to re-enter between $72,000 and $75,000.