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SanDisk receives Rosenblatt buy rating with a target price of $2400, storage chip heat spillover, and more emotional linkage with small-cap coins like MMT. My judgment: short-term bullish, long-term pressure, increasing divergence.
The four-hour upward structure is intact, 37.46% from the low point, but the one-hour has already fallen back 2.79% from the high, showing a clear rhythm divergence, which is the core contradiction. Current price 0.171, 24-hour increase 2.5%, high and low points 0.1734 and 0.1635, turnover only 923,000. The top 10 buy-sell ratio is slightly biased to buy at 1.04, funding rate 0.0050% is low, open interest 9.385 million, bulls are not crowded, sentiment is cautious.
Strategy: buy on pullback at 0.1673, stop loss at 0.1621, target 0.1793; if volume breaks below 0.1621, then lightly short, target 0.1527. Position control within 5% of total funds, exit immediately on break, no holding through.
— For personal opinion only, not investment advice, wish you smooth trading. —
$MMT#闪迪获Rosenblatt买入评级，目标价2400美元
#闪迪获Rosenblatt买入评级，目标价2400美元 $MMT First, McDonald's stock price plummeted nearly 5% in one day, hitting a nearly four-year low during the session;
Then Starbucks announced it will close about 250 stores in North America this week.
Within 48 hours, two of the world's most representative "mass consumer" chain brands almost simultaneously sent the same signal.
McDonald's just finished its investor day, simultaneously pulling out $8.5 billion to support franchisees while admitting: as long as inflation remains high, industry traffic will likely stay flat. Same-store sales in the U.S. have been weakening continuously, and the return of low-income customers has not met expectations.
Starbucks is even more direct—closing stores that "fail to meet standards in both experience and financial performance," about 1% of North American stores, and will also incur $300 million in restructuring costs.
This is not a problem with individual companies' operations, but rather that people are going out less, ordering less, and budgeting more carefully.
Fast food and coffee, once considered "economic barometers," are now both contracting.
What exactly is happening with the economy? $MCD $SBUXThat’s the fort. Not the flashiest coin of the day, not the biggest percentage mover, but the one that keeps the structure intact while everything else digests. If BTC holds this zone and dominance stays firm, the next leg higher still has a foundation. If it cracks meaningfully, the rest of the market feels it first and hardest. Tonight, Xi and Trump met at the White House and even held a welcome banquet. Immediately, people in the comments shouted, "Sino-US easing, good for risk assets, $BTC is about to take off."
Those who play cards are most wary of this kind of "rush as soon as the news breaks." At the level of heads of state, what’s given is long-term sentiment, not tonight’s cash flow. The real factors pressing on the coin price remain unchanged: the 10-year US Treasury yield is still above 5%, oil prices have risen above 100, and the dollar remains firm at 101. These are the real accounts that determine the ceiling for risk assets; a dinner can’t change that.
So look at my current position—I’m not chasing this hot topic. There’s a whole reality of funding costs between positive news and positive price movement. It’s better to act when the cards are actually dealt than to rush in at the sound of the gong if you want to last longer.
What do you think about this meeting? Is it a real turning point or just a meal?$PONS now, in some ways, is like $UNI when it first launched in 2020.
Improved fundamentals do not necessarily mean the token price will rise in sync. Especially in the short term, the price is more influenced by market sentiment and capital competition.
When a project is newly born, the information available is very limited; the team's capability, business model, and risk resistance have not been fully tested. Even with careful research, it’s hard to clearly see its development over the next few years, as there are too many variables.
Truly great projects in history have all been tested by the market over a long time, building value through repeated downturns.
UNI is an example. In May 2021, UNI peaked at about $42.5. Today, Uniswap’s business, revenue, and buyback ability may be stronger than back then, but the price is far below its historical high.
Therefore, being optimistic about fundamentals and judging short-term price increases are two different things. The former requires time to verify, while the latter depends more on sentiment and capital judgment.
Personally, I remain optimistic about PONS and will continue to hold long-term. This isn’t chaos or a broken uptrend. It’s a pause after a fast advance, with institutional demand (spot ETF inflows) still providing a floor even as prices cool. Bitcoin remains the market’s anchor: when yields rise and risk appetite fades, capital doesn’t flee crypto entirely it rotates into the hardest asset in the space. Japan's 10-year government bond yield hits a 30-year high, global funding costs are rising, suppressing risk asset appetite. Although SLX has shown short-term resilience, it struggles to strengthen independently. I tend to reduce positions on rallies rather than chase higher. In the past 24 hours, the price slightly dropped 0.5% to 0.07151, with a turnover of 4.86 million indicating light trading. The 1-hour and 4-hour trends are upward but have pulled back 4.72% from the high. The buy-sell ratio of 0.86 indicates selling pressure dominance, and the funding rate of only 0.005% reflects mild bullish sentiment. Open interest at 29.06 million shows no panic exits.
For operations, prioritize risk control: on a rebound to 0.07235, lightly try shorting with a stop loss at 0.07318 and a target of 0.06905; if it pulls back to 0.06895 and stabilizes, reverse to long with a stop loss at 0.06812 and a target of 0.07155. Single position size should not exceed 5% of total capital; exit immediately if stop loss is triggered without holding the position.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you smooth trading. —
$SLX#US Treasury yields rise broadly, why are high rates hard to lower?
#日本10年期国债收益率创30年新高 $SLX Japan's 10-year government bond yield hits a 30-year high, global funding costs rise suppressing risk appetite, making it difficult for ETH to strengthen independently in the short term. I tend to adopt a defensive approach. The current price is 2687.06, up only 0.1% in 24 hours, with the high of 2706.45 failing to hold. Although the 4-hour chart shows an increase, the 1-hour chart has turned down and has retraced 3.45% from the high. The trading volume of 27.752 million is relatively light. The funding rate is negative at -0.0034%, indicating a slight advantage for shorts, with open interest at 593,000 coin-margined contracts. The top 10 bid-ask ratio of 2.89 indicates solid buy orders. 2626.07 is key support, and 2706.45 is resistance. Risk control priority: if it pulls back to 2638.5 and stabilizes, a light long position can be tried with a stop loss at 2608.3 and a target of 2695.7; if it rises to 2702.4 and is resisted, try shorting with a stop loss at 2728.6 and a target of 2635.2. Do not exceed 5% position size per trade, and exit immediately if stop loss is hit; do not hold losing positions.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$ETH#US Treasury yields rise broadly, why are high rates hard to reduce?
#日本10年期国债收益率创30年新高 $ETH About $ONE
All in all, I held it for a whole week
Actually, it was a bit more than 7 days
Today I finally closed my position!
Actually, the initial position wasn't heavy, very light
Every time it reached my psychological price, I added to the position
After two days, I looked at the profit and was stunned
The price didn't rise much but my “realized profit”
Lost nearly half of the position I opened!
When I carefully checked the funding rate, I found out
It charges once every hour!
Each time averaged around -0.5!
I was dumbfounded, thinking this kind of trash coin going down was inevitable
The position wasn't heavy, still acceptable, so I kept holding
Another two days passed, around the 23rd
Looking at the short position losing more than half
Made 4 or 5 short-term long trades
The last trade, greed overcame reason
Opened a larger long position to hedge
In the end, the market dumped on the afternoon of the 23rd on time
This really hurt
But I still didn't cut losses, thought it was a normal pullback
Only when it dropped to 0.0025 did I ruthlessly cut losses
At this time, I was much clearer
Then slowly looked for opportunities to open shorts at high levels for short-term trades
Sure enough, you have to respect the market
Learned the lesson from $ONE
In the future, I will firmly avoid altcoins with unreasonable funding rates!!!【100U Challenge to 10000U】Day 1
Date: 2026.09.25
Principal: 100U
Total Assets: 99.9969U (Available 90U + Strategy 10U)
Today's P&L: -0.0031U
Cumulative Profit: -0.0031U (-0.0031%)
Goal: 99.9969/10000U (about 1%), short 9900U
Operation: SOL/USDT 100x long grid. Invested 10U, range 100-120, current price 116.99, liquidation price 110.05. Grid profit 0, unmatched profit -0.003U, annualized -93.02%.
Review: SOL daily chart is bullish, but KDJ/RSI are overbought, a pullback to 106 is needed. Entry was a bit rushed. This 10U accounts for 10% of total funds, prepared for total loss.
Plan: Stop loss if it breaks below 112 or add margin. Use 90U base position to layout spot or low leverage between 106-110 on pullback.
⚠️ Personal challenge record, not investment advice. 100x leverage is very risky and can result in total loss of principal.
#100UChallengeTo10000U #Day1 #OKXStrategy #SOLGrid #TradingLog$ZEC Market Review: Cooling Off After the Frenzy
The market keeps drawing comparisons between ZEC and Ethereum in 2021, with institutional holding stories continuously fermenting. The huge expected supply has attracted a flood of capital rushing in, pushing the price from 758 into a vigorous rally, peaking near 1680. Countless traders were moved by the wealth effect, following the trend to speculate on the main upward movement.
Behind this round of surge, Grayscale's massive holdings are the biggest story in the market. The market fantasizes about institutions making large entries and continuous subsequent purchases, locking up supply, shrinking the circulating supply, and prices moving relentlessly upward. Supported by this positive narrative, daily moving averages all diverge upward, indicators keep rising, and candlesticks continuously climb higher. Every minor pullback sees bottom-fishing capital rushing in.
The biggest characteristic of this coin is that it is news-driven. The market largely ties its price action to the Grayscale holding narrative. As long as the story exists, funds are willing to speculate; once the market realizes institutions won't buy blindly and fears of large-scale redemptions emerge, concentrated selling pressure is likely to follow. Unlike Bitcoin or Ethereum, this coin has a smaller market cap and highly concentrated supply. Its upward bursts are explosive, but its declines can be equally fierce. Many only see the gains from the sharp rallies and overlook the damage caused during corrections. The hard-earned money from staying up late was all filled into the crude oil pit this morning! 🤡
Recently, Federal Reserve officials have been speaking intensively, U.S. Treasury yields keep soaring, and market funding costs are getting higher and higher. Crude oil, a commodity deeply influenced by both macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, is really acting wildly. 🌞
——————
Last night I was secretly pleased, but today I was immediately brought back to reality:
Look at last night’s performance (Figures 2 and 3):
$AAVE long position, average entry price 138.55, closed at 00:50 AM, pocketed +15.84%! (Earned $10.36)
$ZEC long position, closed at 23:42 last night, small profit +2.88%. (Earned $0.52)
Made almost $11 from last night’s trades, happily went to sleep.
But woke up this morning (Figure 1):
$CL crude oil short position, average price 90.9, was brutally pulled up to 93.94!
Unrealized loss expanded directly to -33.44%! (Lost $9.72) 😭
Good grief, the little money I painstakingly earned staying up late last night to watch the market was all poured into this bottomless pit of crude oil! Purely "one fierce trade like a tiger, but the profit just stands still."
——————
💡 Trading insight:
Why is it always like this?
Quickly run after making a few points on altcoins, but stubbornly hold onto a 33% deep loss on crude oil.
The root cause of being stuck is still wishful thinking, always feeling "it’s risen so much, it should pull back by now," only to be repeatedly taught by a one-sided market.
Shorting commodities when macro expectations are unclear is really too risky.
💬 Brothers, it’s Friday, I originally wanted to have a good weekend.
This -33% huge pit in crude oil, should I decisively cut losses and admit defeat today, or keep holding on, betting on a pullback?
Teach me in the comments, I’m listening! 👇
#原油CL #AAVE #ZEC #欧易 #交易心得 #加密货币
#美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ 66% increase, 36 million market value.
Looks impressive, right? But what I'm watching is another number: 2,000 NFT seats.
What are these 2,000 seats for? To form an AI work network, running contract development, research, testing, and oracle data.
Here’s the problem—who is verifying these tasks? How much is the output actually worth? From VIBE’s restructuring in May to IMD, how many real deals have been closed in these four months?
What I admire is their storytelling ability. AI Agent collaboration, Claude Code runtime environment, shared tasks—every buzzword is the hottest right now, not missing a single one.
But this 66% figure, is it buying something "already proven," or buying something that "sounds like it can work?"
I’ve seen too many projects like this. Once the hype dies down, those 2,000 seats become 2,000 hot potatoes no one wants to handle.
I buy the story. I don’t buy the money.
#AI模型集体降价，竞争转向成本
#特朗普改称超级智能，AI监管分歧升级 #AMD市值突破1万亿美元，芯片股集体大涨 $ZEC BTC current price is 84382, it just broke through 85,000 but with reduced volume. MACD death cross is downward, bullish momentum is weakening, the market is correcting from overbought conditions. ETF funds turned positive, and SEC's innovative exemptions gave this 5% rise confidence, but after 660 million short positions were liquidated, the liquidation density is very high between 84500 and 85200 above, while support between 83700 and 84000 is relatively weak. Short-term oscillation is weak, beware of a fake rally to trigger liquidation zones before pulling back.
Just heated up the half box of boxed meal left from last night in the security booth and took a couple of bites.
In terms of trading, do not chase highs. Buy on pullback between 83700 and 84000, set stop loss at 83300, take profit first at 84800, if broken then look at 85200. If it directly rallies near 85000 and stalls, go light short, stop loss at 85500, target 84000. The core advice is: wait for pullback to confirm support strength before acting, don’t enter halfway up the mountain.
At BTC’s current level, those chasing the rise are amateurs, those waiting for pullbacks are hunters.
$BTC
#美债收益率全面走高，高利率为何难降？
@OKX星球 The chess clock has been pressed, the opponent hasn't moved yet, but the killing intent on the board has already spread to the third row.
Costco is set to reveal its full Q4 earnings after the market closes on September 24, with net sales of $93.9 billion, up 11% year-over-year, and same-store sales up 9.4%. Excluding fuel and currency effects, the increase is 6.7%. This is not a simple pawn advance; it's White continuously pushing pawns in the center, forcing you to take a stance. The real focus isn't on those few sales figures, but on the three hidden lines: membership fees, renewal rates, and gross margin — these are the bishops and rooks in the endgame that determine whether the midgame can be breached. Once membership renewal rates loosen, it's like a crack in the pawn chain in front of the king, making all subsequent attacks rootless. The market is currently fixated on the resilience of consumption, but seasoned players know resilience is never about how many pieces the opponent has lost, but whether they're willing to keep paying to stay in the club.
Looking at Micron, after the market closes on September 30, it guides revenue around $50 billion plus or minus $1 billion, non-GAAP EPS around $3.1 plus or minus $0.1, and a gross margin of about 86%. This gross margin is not a normal situation; it's an offensive move where the opponent voluntarily sacrifices an entire rook — AI storage demand has pushed pricing power to an extreme. What does an 86% gross margin mean? It means this game has entered a forced, varied endgame where any slight demand-side delay turns the sacrifice into a pure loss. Micron's move with high-bandwidth storage is a key restraint in the entire computing power chessboard, supporting Nvidia's offense and holding the line on Korea's defense.
Meanwhile, the linkage of S&P tokenized assets is the invisible diagonal line off the board. Traditional earnings releases are slow-paced, with three months between each quarterly report; but tokenized assets are a fast game played 24/7, pulling the U.S. stock market's endgame thinking into the midgame skirmish of crypto. The fear and greed index is fluctuating, large swings are signaling that when extreme numbers like Micron's 86% gross margin are thrown into the linkage pool, volatility doesn't just amplify linearly — it triggers a chain check with leverage.
My judgment is simple: Costco is watching whether the pawn chain is stable; Micron is watching whether the sacrifice can be converted into a killing move. These two earnings reports are two moves under the same sky; whoever has less margin for error will be forced to cash in their pieces first. The renewal rate on the consumer side is the pawn in the endgame — seemingly insignificant, but its promotion moment decides life or death; the gross margin on the storage side is the rook that has crossed the river and cannot turn back.
Before delivering checkmate, first count how many pawns you still have. #CostcoQ4EarningsWatch September 25 Crypto News Flash: BTC funding rate turns negative, shorts "paying out of pocket" to fiercely defend the 84,500 sell wall
BTC is currently at 84,376, with today's funding rate turning to -0.00040%, entering a bearish sentiment zone (below 0.005% indicates the market is generally bearish). This means short sellers are paying fees to long holders, effectively "paying out of pocket" to maintain their positions.
Order book data confirms the short positioning:
From the screenshot, the sell orders between 84,500 and 85,300 are very thick, with 373.92 BTC at 84,500 and 125.33 BTC at 85,200, forming a heavy "sell wall." Shorts are paying fees in the futures market and pressing the spot order book, clearly applying pressure on two fronts.
⚔️ Two logical scenarios:
1️⃣ Bearish logic: Negative funding rate combined with a heavy sell wall means shorts control the short-term initiative. If BTC struggles to break up, it will likely consolidate between 84,000-84,500 to digest.
2️⃣ Short squeeze logic: Shorts willing to pay fees indicates they are "holding against the trend." Once the 84,500 sell wall is aggressively consumed, forced short covering could trigger a chain reaction of buy orders, potentially causing a sharp rally. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美债收益率全面走高，高利率为何难降？ Since July 15, wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC have collectively increased by 113,950 BTC. Among them, about 18,205 wallets currently hold 5,243,253 BTC, accounting for approximately 26.1% of the total circulating Bitcoin supply. This group has added another 222,756 BTC over the past year. They distributed around 77,800 BTC around July 19, then transferred again after the Coldcard incident at the end of July. These wallets are medium-sized; while this does not prove that these Bitcoins are held by institutions, it does indicate a significant inflow of funds into a group that already holds more than a quarter of the total Bitcoin supply.Morning Review | When stuck in a losing position, do you choose to reduce your holdings or hold on tough?
The morning market shows divergence, $HYPE slightly pulls back, $BICO rebounds, overall account floating losses narrow, but both positions are still full margin with high leverage, so the account's error tolerance remains very low.
HYPEUSDT | 20x full margin long position
Current price 92.16, down 1.77%, floating profit +2783.70 USDT, return rate +401.53%.
Smart money long-short ratio is 203.32%, with 928 traders holding long positions, average long entry at 81.98, most longs are in profit. Price slightly retraced, floating profit slightly pulled back. With 20x full margin leverage, profits look substantial, but if a rapid dump occurs, profits will quickly evaporate. A trailing stop must be maintained to secure most of the realized gains.
BICOUSDT | 8x full margin long position
Current price 0.0225, up 6.03%, floating loss -1255.38 USDT, return rate -441.87%.
Smart money shows 207 longs and 187 shorts; this morning saw a rebound reducing losses. But my entry price is 0.0349, much higher than the market average, still deeply stuck. This rebound is a corrective move, not a reversal. Full margin leverage means no blind position additions.
✅ Review Summary
HYPE floating profits continue to grow, but under high leverage, profits are just on paper; risk control cannot be relaxed;
BICO's rebound reduces losses, offering a breather; focus on rebound strength to find a window to reduce positions and exit;
Both full margin positions concentrate risk; any extreme one-sided market will cause huge impact; position management needs optimization going forward.
📌 Morning Operation Strategy
$HYPE: Continue raising trailing stop to lock in most profits and prevent sudden crashes from erasing gains;
$BICO: Monitor the sustainability of this rebound, no additional positions, look for opportunities to reduce risk on this stuck position.
💬 Interactive Question
I want to ask everyone: when a position is deeply stuck, do you reduce holdings during a rebound to exit, or hold on tough waiting for the market to recover?
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 The most interesting thing today is not that the market fell, but that with the same pullback, OKB, HYPE, and BICO have completely diverged into three different states: OKB is still holding above 118, HYPE has fallen back from a new high of 98 to around 92, and BICO has dropped back to the 0.021 range. A few days ago, it was about who rose fastest; today, it’s truly about whose chips are stronger.
#HighPositionPullbackVerification
#SmallCoinsReassessingStrength
$OKB is currently around 119, with 117.1–119 as the main range today. 117–118 is the first support; holding this and reclaiming 120 gives a chance to target 123–125 again. Falling below 117 indicates the recent breakout is clearly cooling off.
$HYPE is currently about 92.5, having just hit a historical high of 98.04 yesterday. Around 92 today, support has appeared continuously. The first resistance is 94–94.5; only after stabilizing above this can it challenge 96–98 again. Falling below 91.5 means profit-taking after the new high may continue.
$BICO is currently about 0.0216, with 0.0207–0.021 as the first defense. The first breakout target upward is 0.0223–0.0224; only after reclaiming 0.023 can the structure be considered clearly improved.
This lineup: OKB holds 117, HYPE holds 92, BICO waits for 0.0224. In a pullback market, what’s truly worth watching is not who falls the least, but who first reclaims their lost ground.The 10-year US Treasury yield has hit a new high again
At the same time, the Nasdaq just reached a new high
The stock market and bond market, which should be negatively correlated,
have both reached new highs simultaneously?
Do you know what this means?
Looking back at history, this has happened twice before,
but both times ended with the stock market crashing
The first time was during the 1998-2000 dot-com bubble
The 10-year US Treasury yield surged from 4.16% to 6.8%
The Nasdaq soared from under 2000 points to 5132 points
Then the internet bubble burst
The Nasdaq experienced a continuous decline for two and a half years
With a maximum drop of about 78%
The second time was on the eve of the 2006-2007 subprime crisis
The 10-year US Treasury yield rose from 4.7% to 5.12%
The Nasdaq rose from 2000 points to 2861 points
Then the real estate bubble burst
The subprime crisis broke out
The Nasdaq faced a continuous 17-month decline
With a maximum drop of about 56%
Actually, this time has some shadows of 1998
The AI industry wave corresponds to the internet revolution back then
The high-profit growth of leading tech stocks corresponds to the explosive performance of the dot-com era
The index's 20/80 split is also highly similar
If in the short term, within one or two years,
the stock market can rely on high growth narratives to suppress rising interest rates
But sustained high growth always has a marginal decline point
Once that bottleneck moment truly arrives
This time,
can it really be different?
$QQQ $SNDK $MU
#美债收益率全面走高，高利率为何难降？ $BTC rose from 82812 to 84431.9, pulling up another wave. Review: Last week I opened a long position at 83000, with a stop loss at 82800 and a target of 84500, and I have already taken profit. Since I opened a small position with 5000U and always use stop loss without holding the position, the profit is steady. In the past, I would definitely have held on to try to earn more, but the result might have been giving it back. Now BTC support is at 84116, resistance at 84931, leaning bearish. Operation plan: if 84116 breaks down, lightly short with stop loss at 84400, target 83500; if it holds, just watch. Review insight: Taking profit is not greed, it's securing gains. Making small profits is not scary; what's scary is making profits and then losing them again. $ #美股探索代币化与全天候交易 A common misconception in chasing gains and cutting losses is treating "already risen" as a reason for "still going up," rather than first calculating how much loss this position can afford. $LTC 24h +16.38%, current price 71.77, 30 K-line amplitude about 20.34%, this is a typical high volatility range, so position size must be deduced based on the worst-case scenario—if it pulls back near the Bollinger middle band, the floating loss could instantly consume more than half of the margin.
Structurally, MA5=71.484 is still above MA20=70.0025, so the trend is intact; but the MACD histogram = -0.1125 has turned bearish, RSI=64.5 is not yet overbought but starting to plateau, indicating marginal weakening of upward momentum. The upper Bollinger band at 74.8562 is short-term resistance, funding rate +0.0100% shows bullish sentiment is overheated, and the fear and greed index at 71 (greed) means the cost-effectiveness of chasing longs is declining.
Direction: short-term bullish, but only buy on pullbacks, do not chase highs. Entry reference 70.0–71.5 (close to MA20 and MA5 support zone); Take profit 1 at 74.8 (Bollinger upper band resistance); Take profit 2 at 78.5 (measured extension after breakout); Stop loss at 68.2 (effective break below MA20 and continued MACD bearish). If price breaks below 68.2 with volume or RSI falls back below 50, exit regardless of profit or loss—this is discipline, not judgment.CORE: Sub-second Pre-Confirmation ≠ Final Settlement
⚠️This article is solely an on-chain technical research review and does not constitute any investment advice.
Many in the BTCFi community promote CORE with claims of sub-second transactions and Bitcoin-level security. Many misunderstand this to mean that once a transaction is submitted, it is permanently finalized and irreversible within milliseconds.
But the core truth in one sentence: CORE's sub-second speed is only pre-confirmation; the truly irreversible final settlement requires about 6 seconds.
1. What exactly did the Hermes upgrade optimize?
CORE uses Satoshi Plus hybrid consensus: Bitcoin POW mining power secures the network's base layer, while 21 DPoS validator nodes handle transaction packaging and run EVM smart contracts.
The Hermes hard fork introduced the Fast Finality mechanism to achieve sub-second pre-confirmation:
Users send transactions, the network receives and broadcasts them within hundreds of milliseconds, and wallets immediately notify receipt, giving the experience of "instant execution."
However, at this point, the transaction is not yet permanently recorded in the ledger. To achieve irreversible finality, waiting for 2 blocks—about 6 seconds—is required.
✅ Technical Highlights
1. BTC mining power provides the security foundation combined with high-speed EVM processing, a unique combination in the BTCFi space. Bitcoin's native block time is 10 minutes, Ethereum's about 12 seconds, and CORE compresses final confirmation to 6 seconds, with a theoretical TPS up to 8500, supporting high-frequency on-chain activities like DEX and lending.
2. Full EVM compatibility allows Solidity code to be migrated directly, lowering the barrier for developers entering the Bitcoin ecosystem.
3. 21 validator nodes take turns producing blocks with stable block times, unlike pure POW chains that are affected by mining power fluctuations.
2. Three most easily overlooked cognitive traps
❌ Trap 1: Sub-second = Final confirmation
Sub-second only means the network has received and queued the transaction. At this stage, the transaction can still be rolled back and should not be considered settled. The promotion often omits the word "pre-confirmation," causing misunderstanding.
❌ Trap 2: Speed comes from Bitcoin mining power
BTC mining power only secures consensus voting, not transaction packaging. Transaction processing speed is entirely determined by the 21 DPoS validator nodes. The speedup is due to DPoS, not Bitcoin itself becoming faster.
❌ Trap 3: Having BTC mining power means full decentralization
Base layer security relies on Bitcoin mining power, but block production is done by only 21 validator nodes, a trade-off in decentralization.
3. No matter how strong the mining power, it cannot protect smart contracts
This is the most important point in the research: mining power protects the blockchain ledger but cannot protect the upper-layer smart contract code.
The August 31 reward contract vulnerability incident is a typical example: the underlying mining power and network were normal, but the reward contract code had a bug that minted 69 million ghost tokens out of thin air, causing long-term sell pressure.
The Hermes upgrade can only improve transaction speed; it cannot fix contract code bugs, so token risks objectively remain.
4. Summary
CORE's sub-second pre-confirmation is a genuine technical optimization, not a fabricated gimmick.
But sub-second pre-confirmation ≠ final settlement, a critical boundary all participants must understand.
Behind the speedup is a compromise in decentralization; mining power security cannot prevent smart contract vulnerabilities. There is innovation, but do not be overly dazzled by promotional rhetoric.
💬 Interactive question: In the BTCFi space, do you think transaction speed is more important, or is token cleanliness a higher priority?
#CryptoResearch #CORE #BTCFi #HermesUpgrade$BTC I'm making a bet: if 84116 doesn't hold, it will drop to 83000; if it holds, it will rebound to 85000. The current price is 84431.9, resistance at 84931, support at 84116, leaning bearish. I previously lost 200,000 U because I gambled on direction without setting stop-losses. Now I've learned: open a small position of 5000 U, never hold a position without a stop-loss. Operation plan: if it breaks below 84116, lightly short with stop-loss at 84400, target 83500-83000; if 84116 stabilizes, lightly try long with stop-loss at 83900, target 84900. Enter only if the risk-reward ratio is at least 2:1; if not, stay out and wait. Do you think 84116 can hold? $ #美债收益率全面走高，高利率为何难降？ Big players are just big players
Recently, the boss reviewed two short trades; the lessons learned are more valuable than the profits.
First trade: Shorted near 74500, stop loss at 77500. I placed the order impulsively right after waking up, before my mind was fully active. The impulse was real. At that time, I bet that the cost base of the micro strategy wouldn't be broken through all at once, but I got schooled.
Second trade: Saw a sharp 40% rise in 7 days, my first reaction was that it looked like a 2018 bear market trap, so I reversed to short. Later, the price broke through 83000, the trend had changed, so I decisively stopped loss—no reasoning with the market.
Originally planned to stop loss after a pullback following the 83000 breakout, but the liquidation wave pushed the price straight up, giving no chance. I struggled for a long time at night: hedge first or close all? Finally figured it out—after holding a short for a year, it’s time to end it. The main future track is a bull market, not a bear market mindset.
Rest assured, most of the short trade profits were hedged and locked in long ago. The millions in drawdown look scary but actually didn’t cause serious damage.
The most expensive tuition in trading isn’t losing money, it’s refusing to admit mistakes. $BTC $ETH Looking at this losing CORE trade, I’m completely broken.
8160 yuan, not a small amount, but it’s the last straw that broke the camel’s back.
This coin CORE really feels like a toxic woman. At midnight sharp, it pumps to lure bulls, and just when you’re excited to jump in, it crashes instantly, burying you at the peak. Every time I go long, it drops; every time I cut losses, it rises. It’s like the big holder installed surveillance on my phone, crushing me hard every time.
For the sake of "breaking even," I kept averaging down and holding on stubbornly, staring at those awful candlesticks every day, ruining my life. Now I realize that talking about value investing in a "pump-and-dump" coin controlled at will by the big holder is a huge joke.
I give up, no longer fighting the big holder. I’ll treat this 8160 yuan as a lesson, uninstall the app, and live a good life from now on. $BTC $CORE #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ I opened a short position at 1300. Over the past eight days, there were countless lower stop-loss points. Yesterday, at 1468, I decisively cut my losses and reopened positions: a long at 1466 and a short at 1518. This finally made up for the losses from the 1300 short. So, when the direction is wrong, don't hold onto the position.$PONS right now is somewhat like $UNI when it first launched in 2020.
Improved fundamentals do not necessarily mean the token price will rise in sync. Especially in the short term, the price is more influenced by market sentiment and capital competition.
When a project is newly born, the information available is very limited; the team's capability, business model, and risk resistance have not been fully tested. Even with extensive research, it’s hard to clearly see its development over the next few years, as there are too many variables.
Truly great projects in history have all been tested by the market over a long time, gradually building value through repeated difficulties and downturns.
UNI is an example. In May 2021, UNI peaked at about $42.5. Today, Uniswap’s business, revenue, and buyback ability may be stronger than back then, but the price is far below its historical high.
Therefore, being optimistic about fundamentals and judging short-term price increases are two different things. The former requires time to verify, while the latter relies more on sentiment and capital judgment. If you mainly make money from the latter, it is essentially closer to trading rather than traditional investing.
Personally, I still have a positive outlook on PONS and will continue to hold it long-term. 🐕 Without Musk, does Doge still have a future?
1.56 billion coins in circulation, market cap about $15 billion, down 87% from the peak of $0.73.
Even with less hype from Musk, it hasn’t fallen out of the top ranks.
Doge today is still the same Doge: the brand is there, the market is there, the community is there. What’s changed is that a single pump call no longer works.
Several related moves this year had very short pulses:
1 March AI version Dogefather, price barely moved
2 X payment news, surged then retraced
3 Today a "lol" comeback, there’s heat but no trend
Tesla’s US site also removed the note "some products accept DOGE," though the dedicated page remains, with no official announcement of discontinuation. The moon satellite has been delayed five years; Musk’s comment on "putting a physical Dogecoin on the moon" is: maybe next year.
The only pitfall: treating Musk’s hype as fundamentals.
No total supply cap, with about 5 billion new coins minted annually. The ETF is live but only has a scale of tens of millions of dollars. Payment and merchant tools are advancing but haven’t turned into sustained buying pressure.
Its survival relies on being the deepest brand and liquidity among meme coins.
It’s hard to replicate 2021 because scarcity and real demand haven’t kept up.
Can it still take off on hype alone?
#DOGE #Musk
$DOGE The advantage of wealthy people is really not just having more capital.
What truly widens the gap is how they amplify trend profits and how they handle losing positions.
First, look at this $BTC trade.
30x leverage, shorting 100 BTC directly, entering at an average price of 86576, exiting near 84558, firmly capturing nearly 2000 points of downside. The entire position lasted nearly 21 hours, and the mid-session fluctuations didn’t disrupt the rhythm, ultimately securing close to 200,000 U with a 69.21% return.
Next, look at $ETH, which is a completely different approach.
Also 30x leverage, but this time not chasing trends, focusing on short-term trades. Holding 2000 ETH, only for a bit over two hours, capturing a rebound from around 2665 to about 2671, pocketing over 9000 U, a 5.09% return, exiting as soon as the target was hit, no hesitation.
Of course, big players aren’t right every time.
This SNDK 10x full position long trade entered near 1819, stopped out at 1816 after a wrong judgment, holding for over two hours, losing over 3700 U, a 2.04% drawdown.
This is what really deserves attention with large capital:
Dare to take profits when right,
Cut losses immediately when wrong.
Not every trade has to win, but let winning trades run as much as possible and losing trades stay as small as possible.
Over the long term, this is how the gap gradually widens.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC remains above 82,800, but "take profits then wait for a pullback" does not equal trend confirmation. The public market prices are about $BTC 84,429, $ETH 2,691; within the window, some channels suggest taking profits on Bitcoin and Ethereum first, then considering after a pullback, while another trader admits recent perpetual swaps have performed poorly and has switched to waiting. These are original judgments, not publicly verifiable results.
The key decision point remains 82,800: only if the daily close holds above and then pulls back to support can we consider the dense trading area near 87,700 above; if the close falls back below it, the previous bullish conditions fail. I pay more attention to volume and whether $ETH is moving in sync, and I do not chase in the middle of the range.
Regarding opportunities, the "57% rise" of $ONDO and various copy trading and rebate contents in the window lack independent verification, so I do not include them. My approach is to wait for confirmation before acting: will you wait for a volume breakout, or wait for support to fail? $DOGE rose 3.85% in 24 hours, and this upward move is not over yet; the next step will be to test the intraday high of 0.09754. Breaking it down, the bears are retreating while the bulls' leverage is increasing. The funding rate has turned from negative to positive, indicating that the previously price-suppressing short positions have loosened, and now the bulls are willing to pay to hold positions. The newly added leverage stands with the bulls and has not been squeezed out. The trading volume far exceeds the $280 million position inventory, showing ample turnover, which means the chips have already been handed over during this rally, not just a few positions forcibly pushing the price up. The long-short ratio of both large and retail investors has slightly declined simultaneously, serving only as background: neither side has chased to overcrowding, so there is little risk of a sudden stampede above. After a 6.8% amplitude move, the price closed near the upper range, with buying support holding until the close. The condition for a bearish reversal: if the price falls back below 0.09137, it means this batch of newly added bullish leverage is trapped overall, and the upward judgment is invalidated. $BTC 🔥
Deribit has over $15.9 billion in BTC options expiring; don’t directly interpret the “max pain at 78,000” as “BTC will crash to 78,000.”
📊 【What exactly is max pain?】
BTC is currently around 84,000, about 6,000 away from max pain. Just looking at the number, it does seem like an early warning from the market.
But max pain is not a price prediction!
It simply means that if the settlement price stays at 78,000, option buyers as a whole lose the most. This is a settlement game, not a guaranteed price endpoint.
⚠️ 【$16 billion options ≠ $16 billion sell-off】
What really causes volatility is market makers adjusting hedge positions before expiration. The closer the price is to the concentrated positions, the more frequent contract trading may be.
Once settlement ends, this force withdraws, and the market may actually calm down.
🎯 Don’t see “$16 billion options expiring” as $16 billion BTC waiting to be dumped. Many options are insurance institutions buy for spot holdings, not bets on one-sided price moves.
(Source: OKX Planet 09/25 )
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 I have been watching the $SNDK SanDisk bearish candle for three days. I judged in the morning session that it wouldn't hold, and some in the comments disagreed. Now it has slipped from 1904 to 1786, down over 2% intraday; right or wrong is already written in the candlestick.
It's not that I'm not excited, but more so calm. The real sell-off may just be beginning.
Rosenblatt initiated coverage today with a target price of 2400, the report extremely optimistic; however, the chairman cashed out $53.27 million in 15 transactions on September 17. Insiders bought zero shares in the past year but sold 26.2 million. The research report is for the market, but executive trades are more real.
Michael Burry increased his short position on Micron, calling the storage chip valuation "absurd"; Acer's chairman also said "there is no shortage of memory." On one side, institutions are bullish, on another, executives are exiting, and on another, a big short seller is betting—aren't the signals clear enough?
My short position remains unchanged. This pullback looks less like an end and more like a beginning.
$BTC $ETH
#美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布
#波动雷达：币种异动观察
The above are personal views for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Beneath the thick volcanic ash of the ancient city of Pompeii, every skeleton frozen in a struggling pose believed, just a second before burial, that it was merely an ordinary geothermal eruption.
Looking at this batch of deeply buried $ETH positions in hand, I gently brush off the dust on the chart with a shovel. When I first entered, I vowed to make a quick short-term relief carving, but in the blink of an eye, the floating loss reached 20%. I told myself this was a mid-term stratigraphic exploration; when the retracement passed halfway, I simply classified it as a once-in-a-century Bronze Age cellar; now deeply trapped at the summit, I finally had an epiphany—I had passively been promoted to a lifelong civilization inheritor crossing millennia. It's not that I don't want to let go, but once this "mummy" is unearthed and exposed to light, the remaining flesh will instantly turn to ashes.
Carbon-14 dating tells us there is nothing new under the sun. Humans before Christ recorded debts on clay tablets; today, we inscribe anxieties on the blockchain. The greed for the peak and the luck for the abyss in human nature have not changed a single notch in the past three thousand years. The upper Bollinger Band at 2709 looks exactly like the unfinished ruins of the Tower of Babel, and every touch is a transgression against divine order; while the 1-hour RSI hovering at 53.7 is just a brief calm before the flood in the Mesopotamian basin. Ancient Roman denarii would depreciate, Sumerian wheat ears would rot, so since trapped in the fault zone of the strata, I calmly watch this geological structure slowly settle like an archaeologist.
- Target: $ETH 🔴
- Entry: 2685.00 - 2705.00
- TP1: 2650.00
- TP2: 2615.00
- SL: 2725.00
The sixteenth law of stratigraphy always applies: every layer of trapped sandstone serves as the foundation for the revival of the next era.
#StrategyPlaybook The market looks lively, but below is quietly closing the umbrella. Have you noticed this "stable on the surface, tight inside" rhythm recently? In today's adjustment, BTC is oscillating around 84.1K, with 87.2K becoming the short-term ceiling for suppression. Below 83.6K is the first buffer cushion, and 80K is the psychological dividing line. ETH is around 2.64K, touched 2.70K but then lost; the intraday low of 2.58K and 2.76K is the threshold for trend recovery. SOL near 112, 116 failed, 109 is the boundary between bulls and bears, and only by reclaiming 116 can there be a chance to touch 120. The weekly chart structure hasn't been broken yet; the daily chart is digesting. But what I want to say is not the price level, but risk appetite itself. On the surface, the three major mainstreams are just "pullbacks" and haven't crashed. But the underlying signal is: money chasing high has become cautious, leverage is shrinking, and positions are being reweighed. This is not a trend reversal, but pricing power gradually shifting from sentiment to risk control. The bullish path: as long as 80K is not lost, a recovery could happen at any time. First, watch the rebound strength and don't rush to short before breaking down. ETH holds at 2.58K, SOL holds at 109, so the sector still has a foundation for rotation, and the sentiment of the altcoins won't cool off overnight. Potential risk: 87.2K repeatedly fails to rise, indicating buyers are unwilling to pay a premium for a breakout. US Treasury yields are rising across the board, and high rates are hard to lower; this macro backdrop will continue to pressure risk asset valuations. US and Iran resume contact, theoretically risk premiumWhile the broader crypto market is taking a hit from the spike in U.S. Treasury yields (10-year hitting levels not seen in nearly two decades) and hotter than expected PMI data reigniting rate fears, BTC is the clear relative winner. It’s consolidating around the $84k area after a strong weekly run, with dominance still elevated near 58–59%. Alts are feeling more of the pressure ETH/BTC slipping, higher beta names getting hit harder which is classic “risk-off within crypto” behavior. Dow Jones 51350, down 162 points, down 0.3%. S&P 7704, down 2 points. Nasdaq 26939, up 3 points. Russell 2000 down 0.1%. S&P closed lower for the third consecutive day. So far this week, Nasdaq is still up 1.6%, S&P up 0.7%, Dow down 0.6%. Intraday swings both ways. The morning session was pressured by oil prices and long-term bonds, then pulled back in the afternoon due to news of US-Iran contacts, but the gains were given back by the close. Reuters reported that the two sides are discussing phased de-escalation: Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the US lifting economic sanctions. The news was enough to pull the index back from the lows to flat, but it did not change long-term interest rates. The 30-year US Treasury yield rose to about 5.43%, the highest since 2004. The 10-year remains around 5.1%. Oil prices are rising again. The structure remains the same: oil determines bonds, bonds determine stocks. The summit itself is more procedural. Bassett said the trade truce is extended for another two months, until January 10. AI, Iran, and critical minerals are left to the leaders. Tech CEOs attended the same evening. The market accepted the extension but did not compress risk premiums. Williams said one more rate hike this year is reasonable. Initial jobless claims at 197,000, labor force remains stable. The economy is not cooling, bonds remain firm. Individual stocks continue to move independently. Meta up about 4.5%, released a new handheld device compatible with Muse. Oracle down 3.5%, New Mexico data center project issued a force majeure notice.116 million liquidations in one hour, with long positions accounting for 97.66%. When BTC dropped below 83,000, it wiped out those chasing longs near the round number, not because the fundamentals changed. Now the price is around 84,400, after the spike it has come back.
Hyperliquid accounts for 34%, six major addresses exploded in a chain, and all the high-leverage longs are crowded in one pool; when volatility increases, this area gets liquidated first.
I tend to think this is a liquidity cleanse. Falsification condition: if BTC later breaks below 83,000 again with volume and long liquidations continue to exceed 100 million in one hour, then the lower boundary hasn't been found; if 83,000 holds and liquidations decrease, then this spike can be considered a completed cleanse.$320,000 in fees, 7 days.
FOMO ranks second in Builder integration on Hyperliquid, with only Phantom ahead.
Ignas specifically mentioned that he never promoted FOMO's referral link.
Seeing this makes me a bit frustrated.
It's not jealousy over others making money, but this money could have circulated to more people.
Retail investors using FOMO to rush into Hyperliquid pay a toll to the integrators with every transaction.
You think you're trading on your own, but you're even paying to enter the market.
$320,000 isn't huge, but that's the volume over 7 days, and it's still ranked second.
This shows many people are using it, and no one thinks there's a problem.
I used to be like this too; when a tool works smoothly, I don't look at how it makes money.
Looking back now, the most expensive thing is never the fees, but that you never realized you were paying them.
From now on, I'll watch one number: whether these fees continue to rise or drop within two weeks.
If they rise, it means retail investors are still rushing in. If they drop, it means this wave of hype was just a passing wind.
#美股探索代币化与全天候交易
#美元稳定币或加速出海 #CME拟推BCH与UNI期货 $ETH BTC blocks every ten minutes, CORE claims sub-second transactions! There's a conceptual trap hidden here
⚠️This article is only an on-chain technical research review and does not constitute any investment advice
Bitcoin's native network takes an average of 10 minutes to mine a block; slow transaction confirmation is a well-known pain point. After the Hermes hard fork upgrade, CORE promoted "sub-second transactions," attracting many with this huge contrast: Could CORE really achieve Bitcoin-level security while enabling millisecond-level settlement?
However, most promotional materials deliberately hide a key distinction: sub-second refers to pre-confirmation, not final confirmation. This is the core conceptual trap.
1. What exactly did the Hermes upgrade optimize?
CORE uses a Satoshi Plus hybrid consensus architecture: BTC's POW hash power secures the entire network's base layer, while 21 DPoS validator nodes handle transaction packaging and run EVM smart contracts.
The Hermes hard fork introduced the Fast Finality mechanism, adding sub-second pre-confirmation:
Users submit transactions, and the network receives and broadcasts them within a few hundred milliseconds; wallets instantly show the transaction as received, giving users the intuitive feeling of "instant settlement."
But for the transaction to be irreversible and truly finalized on the ledger, it requires about 6 seconds (2 blocks).
✅ Genuine technical highlights:
1. BTC hash power guarantees security + high-speed EVM transactions, a differentiated path in the BTCFi sector
Bitcoin blocks every 10 minutes; Ethereum blocks about every 12 seconds after the Merge. CORE relies on Bitcoin's massive hash power to secure the ledger and 21 validator nodes to quickly process transactions, with a theoretical TPS up to 8500, supporting high-frequency BTCFi services like DEXs, lending, and derivatives.
2. Full EVM compatibility
Developers can directly reuse Solidity code, lowering migration costs for DeFi projects and facilitating Bitcoin ecosystem application deployment.
3. Round-robin block production by nodes ensures stable block times
The 21 validator nodes produce blocks in rotation, avoiding the block time fluctuations caused by hash power variability in pure POW public chains.
2. Three common conceptual misunderstandings in the promotion
❌Misunderstanding 1: Sub-second = final transaction confirmation
Sub-second is only pre-confirmation perception, meaning the transaction is received and queued by the network, not permanently finalized on the ledger. During pre-confirmation, the transaction can still be rolled back; true irreversibility requires waiting for 6 seconds of block finalization. Many promotions omit the word "pre-confirmation," equating sub-second pre-confirmation with final settlement, which is typical marketing gloss.
❌Misunderstanding 2: Sub-second speed comes from Bitcoin hash power
BTC hash power is only used for consensus voting on the security layer and does not participate in transaction packaging. Transaction speed is determined by the 21 DPoS validator nodes. The speedup comes from DPoS nodes, not Bitcoin itself.
❌Misunderstanding 3: Having BTC hash power = full decentralization
Although the base layer benefits from Bitcoin hash power, only 21 validator nodes are responsible for block packaging, representing a clear trade-off in decentralization.
3. Hash power security cannot prevent smart contract vulnerabilities (key research point)
Hash power protects the blockchain's base ledger but cannot guard against vulnerabilities in upper-layer smart contract code.
The August 31 reward contract vulnerability incident is a prime example: the underlying hash power network remained intact, but a bug in the reward contract code caused an overflow, minting 69 million ghost tokens, creating long-term selling pressure.
Even though the Hermes upgrade greatly improved transaction speed, security risks at the smart contract layer objectively remain; speed cannot solve token risks caused by contract bugs.
4. Summary
CORE Hermes' sub-second pre-confirmation is not pure marketing hype; it is a real technical optimization. It combines Bitcoin hash power security with high-speed EVM transactions, carving a unique path in the BTCFi sector.
However, marketing deliberately blurs the difference between "pre-confirmation" and "final confirmation," creating the illusion of "sub-second permanent settlement," which is the conceptual trap mentioned in the article title. Behind the speedup is a decentralization compromise due to fewer validator nodes; and while hash power provides a safety net, it cannot eliminate smart contract code vulnerabilities. The technology has highlights but is far from as perfect as the promotion suggests.
💬 Interactive question: In the BTCFi sector, do you think transaction speed is more important, or is token cleanliness a higher priority?
#CryptoResearch #CORE #BTCFi #HermesUpgradeThe moment oil prices just broke 100, I stared at the screen for two seconds, and BTC and ETH almost simultaneously shrank 🫧 down. Did you notice that no one is really panicking during this round of decline? Let me share what I've seen. US Treasury yields are rising across the board, and the possibility of a rate hike at year-end or October is repeatedly mentioned. Oil prices have risen above 100 again today. Risk assets are all under pressure—BTC, 2BTC, and tech stocks—no one has escaped. But note, the market isn't trading 'will a rate hike happen,' but 'when will it be confirmed?' This expectation has already been partially priced in advance, which is why the price reaction is so restrained. For Bitcoin, I treat 83,000 as the first line of support—if it breaks, I'll look at 81,000; above 85,000, first see if it can hold, then 87,000. On the other hand, the second bing actually makes me feel more stable. ETF inflows are quite large, with support at 2,630, resistance at 2,705, and now at 2,760. I'm still holding a bearish position, but I'll adjust at any time according to ETF data and news. The logic for the bullish side is: the long-term trend in crypto hasn't changed, ETF funds are still supporting the bottom, and the structure of the second bing is more resilient than the big pie. The risk is: if rate hike expectations shift from 'possible' to 'certain' and oil prices remain high, risk appetite will be siphoned again, and knockoffs will be the first to collapse, causing crowd psychology to slide from hesitation to FOMO-like exit. What I care about more now is not the price level, but narrative fatigue. People talk about long-term optimism but are waiting for a definite signal before daring to move—this state is the easiest way to keep the market in the zoneEndured the whole day! The trend of $ZEC really made my heart uneasy and anxious, dropping from over 1500 to over 1400, but then it pulled back up again. The market makers are defending the price very tightly, with a very solid foundation. Be very careful when shorting; don't get stuck at the peak or halfway up the mountain.
Today ZEC dropped from 1650 to 1480, then pulled back to 1512—a typical shakeout. Trading volume was $1.98 billion, with a net capital outflow of $187 million, but it still managed to pull back, indicating that the market makers are fiercely defending the 1400-1480 range. The largest short whale, Garrett Jin, held for three months and finally closed his position with a $36.13 million loss, but he still holds 200,000 coins in spot, so he is not truly bearish.
Fundamentally, Grayscale ZCSH has had net inflows for 16 consecutive days, totaling over $500 million. The NU7 upgrade will activate on November 5, reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds while retaining the halving mechanism. On-chain hidden transaction volume has reached a new high since 2022.
Key levels: resistance above at 1585-1650, support below at 1488; if it breaks below, watch 1400, then 1300-1220. Always use stop-loss on short positions; don’t hold on stubbornly.
What do you think—Is ZEC undergoing a shakeout or has it peaked?
$BTC
$ETH #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ #AI模型集体降价，竞争转向成本 Is BTC unable to drop in the short term? But three risks have not yet been resolved!
BTC current price is around 84,400, with yesterday's low at 82,875. Two tests did not break below, volume increased to pull back to 84,418. There is data supporting the feeling that "it can't drop in the short term."
First, evidence supporting the inability to drop:
The 82,875 level was tested twice without breaking, forming a short-term double bottom pattern. On September 24, there was a volume surge during the drop, with buying support at the low. Open interest stabilized at 95,956. The order book buy/sell ratio is 1.22, with buying dominance.
But three potential downside risks have not been resolved.
First, the large holders' long-to-short position ratio remains between 1.92 and 2.01.
This number indicates that large holders' long positions are still crowded. As long as it does not drop below 1.9, the risk of a pullback is not fully eliminated. Crowded long positions mean that if the price falls again, the pressure from chained liquidations remains.
Second, the liquidation level at 82,103 has not yet been tested.
During the big drop on September 23, the lowest point only reached 82,875, still some distance from 82,103. This level gathers a large number of long liquidation positions.
If the market wants to "harvest" these positions, there may be another dip. Historical patterns show that liquidation clusters act like magnets; once the price approaches, it will be pulled in.
Third, today's Deribit 15 billion options expiration is a short-term key variable.
85,000 is the most concentrated call option strike price, and traders' hedging operations may suppress gains before settlement. Once options settle or roll over, the current range may be broken.A typical mistake in chasing gains and cutting losses is to treat "already risen" as "can still rise," while ignoring that after volatility increases, the position itself becomes the greatest risk exposure.
$FET current price 0.2296, 24h +18.05%, 30 K-line amplitude about 18%, this is not a low volatility environment. RSI 74.2 has entered the overbought zone, price is running close to the upper Bollinger band at 0.238029, MA5 0.22746 is above MA20 0.2118, MACD histogram +0.002079 is still bullish, the trend is not broken, but chasing highs has very low cost-effectiveness. Funding rate +0.0091%, longs pay, sentiment is overheated; Fear and Greed Index 71, greed zone. This means the worst case is not a slow pullback, but a rate reversal combined with profit-taking panic, with one K-line giving back most of the gains.
The direction is still bullish, but only trade on pullbacks, do not chase the current price. Entry reference 0.2200–0.2240, i.e., below MA5 to the previous high concentration area, stop loss at 0.2110, exit if it breaks below MA20 and MACD histogram contracts. Take profit 1 at 0.2380, corresponding to the upper Bollinger band; take profit 2 at 0.2480, an extended target after breaking the upper band. Position size recommended not to exceed 5% of total funds, leverage controlled within 3x.Early this morning (Beijing time), oil prices and BTC released the most counterintuitive data in this round of trading. First, oil prices surged violently. Latest data from Oil Price Inquiry Network: WTI crude hit an intraday high of 96.46 per barrel today (up more than 4 from yesterday's close at 92.16), and Brent crude hit a high of 102.32 per barrel (up more than 4 from yesterday's close at 98.06). Jintou Network confirmed that Brent crude contract 01 rose 3.68% to 95.51, and contract 02 rose 3.34% to 92.90. The driving force came from two directions: (1) US-Iran diplomacy at the UN General Assembly was completely deadlocked (analyzed in Section 95); (2) Rumors of a U.S. diesel export ban—although the White House denied it and Energy Secretary Wright said it "won't work," ultra-low sulfur diesel futures plunged 5% in a single day yesterday, indicating the market is pricing in an extreme scenario of a "diesel supply cutoff." EIA data shows U.S. distillate inventories have decreased by 428,000 barrels to 107.4 million barrels—diesel supply is tightening. Second, BTC has emerged from an "counterintuitive" independent rally. Latest data from Blockchain Library (Beijing time, September 25, 02:20): BTC is at 84,370 (+0.12%), with a 24-hour low of 82,888 and a high of $84,938. In other words: despite the "triple negative factor" of oil prices surging from 92 to 96, Williams' hawkish statements (Section 93), and US stock futures dropping more than 1%, BTC did not fall below $82,888—this price level happens to be the largest accumulation support zone on the UTXO price distribution chart (Today (Friday, September 25) at 4:00 PM Beijing time (08:00 UTC), the crypto market will witness the largest option expiration event of Q3 2026. First, Deribit CEO Luke Strijers personally published an article today analyzing the full scope of this expiration. Today's Toutiao reposted an in-depth report from FX168, revealing data far more detailed than in Part 90: Bitcoin options expired about $1.59 billion, Ethereum options about $210 million, totaling about $1.8 billion. This is not the previously rumored "$150 billion"—the actual nominal expiration value is $15.9 billion (including all contracts expiring on Deribit's platform today), with Bitcoin options accounting for the vast majority. Strijers confirmed: Bitcoin options expiring on September 25 will reduce Deribit's total open interest by about 37%, which currently stands at about $43.5 billion. This means: after 4 p.m. today, more than one-third of option positions will be "wiped out," and market makers' hedging needs will instantly disappear. Second, the position structure reveals that "the bulls have already won but have not cashed out." Strijes provided key data: (1) The call/put open interest ratio is 0.69 (bulls dominate) ;(2) Of approximately 9.4 billion bullish bets, **55% are at net value** (i.e., BTC's current price is above the strike price, meaning these options have "made money"); (3) Of the total 15.9 billion positions, about one-third are currently at net value; (4) Strike price $70.00Term Structure Radar
$BTC annualized basis at three expiration points is relatively flat: the near, mid, and far-term annualized basis are +4.63%/+4.91%/+4.71% respectively; the near-term contract's raw spread relative to the index is +$378.2. The annualized pricing differences across the three terms are small, with no obvious widening of the term premium.
$ETH annualized basis increases with expiration term: the near, mid, and far-term annualized basis are +3.80%/+3.87%/+4.34% respectively; the near-term contract's raw spread relative to the index is +$9.89. The far-term annualized basis is higher than the near-term, indicating higher annualized relative pricing with longer terms.
$SOL annualized pricing at the three expiration points is not unidirectional: the near, mid, and far-term annualized basis are +2.03%/+0.96%/+1.18% respectively; the near-term contract's raw spread relative to the index is +$0.23. The mid-term expiration breaks the monotonic order, and the difference between near and far terms is insufficient to describe the entire curve.
BTC, ETH, SOL: all three expiration points are in contango. Bitcoin stabilized at 84,000, Ethereum returned to around 2,700, and Solana rebounded to 117. When it dropped to 83,000 yesterday, many people said the bull was gone, but today it recovered half of that. That's how the market is—rumors are most rampant and panic is heaviest during a drop, but often that point is the short-term low. My first limit order at 82,500 didn't get filled, missing by less than a thousand dollars. It's not false to say I'm a bit regretful, but I don't regret it. The discipline of limit orders is like this: take it when it hits, wait if it doesn't, and don't change the price last minute to chase it. If this time it doesn't drop further and directly rallies, it means the bulls are stronger, and the positions held will still make money. Sideways consolidation is the most wearing but also the biggest test—can you avoid being shaken out, can you avoid acting rashly, can you stick to the plan. My choice is simple: no changes to orders, no changes to positions, no changes to mindset. Block has connected AI agents to the Lightning Network
In the future, machine-to-machine payments will be faster than human ones.
What is this: x402 embeds payments into HTTP, allowing AI agents to place orders and pay by themselves.
Why it will rise: Block says this system needs to handle tens of billions of microtransactions, and only the Lightning Network can support that.
What I did: In the last round, I thought the same, rushed in after seeing the narrative, and fully loaded my position.
Result: The narrative was true, but the price was false; I have held on until now.
The lesson is simple: a good story does not equal a good buying point.
This round will most likely hype the concept first; the real usage of $BTC's Lightning Network depends on actual transaction numbers.
I wait for data, not whitepapers.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 #CME拟推BCH与UNI期货 $BTC