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On September 2, Bitcoin briefly fell below $77,000, hitting a low of $76,762. The global bond market is experiencing its fiercest sell-off in nearly two decades. Japan's 10-year government bond yield has touched 3% for the first time since 1996. The yield on the UK's 30-year government bond has hit its highest level since 1998. Germany's 30-year government bond yield has reached its highest level since 2011. The Bloomberg Global Sovereign Bond Index yield has climbed to its highest level in nearly twenty years. On the US side, the 30-year Treasury yield once again broke above 5.28%, returning to the level before Betcent's August 19 announcement to expand its repurchase. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.8%, the highest since January 2025. The 2-year yield rose to 4.4%. CME data shows that the market has priced in a 66.9% probability of a Fed rate hike in September. The market is trading one thing: higher and longer. Interest rate hikes. Bond sell-offs. Risk assets under pressure. But there is one thing that almost no one notices. In early August, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly called on the Federal Reserve, requesting an expansion of the size and limits of FIMA's repurchase tools. What is FIMA? In plain language: Foreign governments can mortgage their U.S. Treasury bonds to the Federal Reserve, lending dollars without selling them on the open market. Under current rules, the outstanding repayment limit for a single counterparty is $60 billion. Bescent said: This limit needs to be raised. Japan's Ministry of Finance also announced that it is working with the US to try to suppress the dollar-yen exchange rate. Why was this matter overlooked? Because everyone is watching rate hikes. No one cares about a "Fed's emergency tool during the pandemic era." But on August 11, Arthur Hayes published an article titled "Yen-quake," clarifying the issue. Hayes's logic is simple: First, the yen is one of the most severely undervalued currencies globally. The Bank of Japan will not raise interest rates—raising rates would trigger massive global carry trade unwindings, repeating the market crash of August 2024. Second, Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) and the Ministry of Finance hold over $1.37 trillion in U.S. Treasuries that can be used as collateral. Third, the most likely path is for Japan's Ministry of Finance to mortgage U.S. Treasuries to the Federal Reserve in exchange for dollars, then use those dollars to buy yen in the market. This approach does not sell assets or trigger market turmoil, but it does have a side effect—the Fed's balance sheet expands and dollar liquidity surges. Hayes's exact words were: "The more they print, the higher Bitcoin rises." ” He called FIMA the Federal Reserve's "disguised money printing." Note, this is not quantitative easing. FIMA buybacks are temporary and must be repaid. But temporary liquidity surges have the same effect on price-sensitive assets. Hayes himself revealed that Maelstrom has already gone long on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and ENA. But his "bullets" are not yet finished. What is he waiting for? Fed Chair Kevin Warsh convened a subcommittee to amend FIMA rules. The market is trading in a September rate hike—a 66.9% probability that is almost certain. Bitcoin is falling, bonds are falling, and risk assets are falling. But what is the savvy money planning? Planning for a "market not priced yet" outcome: the debt problem is unsustainable, and the ultimate solution must be monetization. Japan's 10-year government bond yield has broken below 3% for the first time in 30 years. The Japanese government has accumulated the world's largest sovereign debt and previously relied on an almost zero-cost funding environment. Now, this logic has completely collapsed. If Japan is forced to raise interest rates—global carry trades are closed and liquidity is instantly drained—Bitcoin could fall even harder. If Japan borrows dollars to buy yen through FIMA—the Fed's balance sheet expands, dollar liquidity will spill over, and Bitcoin, gold, and crypto assets will all rise. Two paths. One is what the market is trading. The other is what the market hasn't seen yet. On August 19, Goodent announced an expansion of U.S. Treasury repurchases, with effects lasting less than two days. The 30-year Treasury yield briefly fell before quickly returning to high levels. Pantera founder Dan Morehead said: "Bluffing only works if no one at the table knows you're bluffing." ” Becent's "powerful toolbox" is seen by the market as just a delaying tactic. The real toolbox isn't in the Treasury, but in the Federal Reserve. Short term: Rate hike expectations suppress risk assets. Bitcoin fluctuates between $76,000 and $82,000. By September 2, it had already fallen below $77,000. September was the weakest month in Bitcoin's history. Don't expect an easy breakout in the short term. Medium to long term: The ultimate solution to debt problems must be monetization. Whether it's FIMA, quantitative easing, or yield curve control—the outcome is the same: more dollars, higher BTC. Hayes's year-end target price is $125,000. Think that's ridiculous? When the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expanded from $4.2 trillion to $8.9 trillion in 2020, Bitcoin rose from below $10,000 to $69,000. History does not simply repeat itself, but the rhythm is always similar. The market is trading for a rate hike in September. But savvy money is laying the foundation for the ultimate monetization of debt. Bearish in the short term, bullish in the long term—which side are you on? Everyone is watching the same table. But the real cards are beneath the table. FIMA is that overlooked card. By the time it flips over, you may already be too late. $BTC $ETH $SOL #非农前数据分化, expectations for a rate hike in September are heating up