Crypto_猫哥(BTC版）
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$BTC
$ETH
$SOL
Conclusion first
We are currently near the end of the bear market. Even to be cautious, you should build a position of 30%
Large funds prioritize BTC/ETH/SOL/OKB
If you don't have much capital, you can lay in some quality altcoins like ENA/AAVE/PUMP
Currently, I have opened a live contract trading on OK Planet, challenging to turn 10,000 into 100,000. Of course, I don't recommend everyone to trade contracts. My large positions are all spot. But without live trading, it's not as engaging. After all, talking is no match for actual operation
I hope brothers can help by following me, I will definitely follow back
Let's all get rich together
$BTC
$ETH
Review of $ETH's view from yesterday
Yesterday, resistance was given at 2437, overall bearish bias, waiting to test the support at 2353 before making further judgment
The market unfolded as expected: price encountered resistance and fell back at 2430, dipping to a low of 2356, which just fell within the defined support range
After the support held effectively, a rebound began, currently fluctuating around 2408
The 30-minute indicator completed a zero-axis crossover upwards, next to observe the strength in the evening
To confirm Ethereum's return to strength, it must firmly hold above 2453
$UNI
$ETH
Is $UNI fully circulating? Is there inflation? Is it deflationary? Let's clarify all at once!
1️⃣ Regarding whether it is fully circulating, we look at Binance app and CMC's web page, which give two different numbers
Binance app: Circulating 890 million, total 890 million
CMC web: Circulating 620 million, total 890 million
The difference is that CMC counts 270 million in the treasury as non-circulating because these are not circulating in the public market
Conclusion: The core issue is the definition of "circulating"; traders need to be clear about the difference in definitions
2️⃣ Is there inflation?
Currently, from public information, Uniswap has two inflation mechanisms
First, the treasury allocates 20 million tokens annually to Uniswap Labs to support ecosystem development, vested quarterly; this has already happened, but note this is not an increase in total supply, just a transfer from the treasury to the lab
Second, the total supply can increase by 20 million tokens annually, but this is only a proposal and has not been implemented yet, so it has not actually occurred
3️⃣ Is it deflationary?
Uniswap can burn tokens according to protocol revenue; this has happened. Currently, the total token supply is 890 million, while at TGE it was 1 billion
Conclusion: Whether it is fully circulating depends on the definition; the token has both inflation and deflation mechanisms, and whether it ends up deflationary or inflationary depends on the combined effect
$BTC
BTC Liquidation Heatmap Observation
The price is currently oscillating around 77000, caught between two major liquidation zones.
Above, there is a large accumulation of short liquidation positions at 78300‑78800. If it breaks upward, short covering will help push the market higher.
Below, there is a cluster of long liquidation positions at 76000‑76800. Once broken, long liquidation stampede will intensify the downward movement.
If you are the main force, would you trigger leverage liquidation upwards or downwards?
Mark it down
Next opportunity
鸟哥｜蓝鸟会
Brothers, the big one is coming. Circle's own @Arc mainnet is officially announced to launch on September 16. Get ready to welcome the next Robinhood!
Arc is a Layer 1 public chain, but its gas fees are not paid in ETH or anything else, they are paid directly in USDC. The next hundredfold or thousandfold opportunity is on this chain!
Arc hasn't officially opened yet. The mainnet was briefly open for a short time before, but Arc itself temporarily shut down the official RPC and Gateway to prevent unauthorized access. Note, only the front-end facade was closed; the chain itself never stopped and has been running continuously.
@fomo founder @seyong stated: They will support Arc on the first day of the mainnet launch.
Tools you need to prepare now:
GMGN: (the first trading tool to support the ARC chain early on)
fomo: (there will be many early buyers on launch day; you can follow the smart money to trade on fomo)
Now let's talk about some memes already running on the chain, each more abstract than the last:
1️⃣ Birdie, the dog owned by Chris Ries, named Birdie. The official Arc account even posted photos of it.
🔗
🔗
2️⃣ Architects, a name taken from the term "Architects" mentioned in the Arc House project.
🔗
3️⃣ ARCANINE, the first meme coin on the Arc chain, taking the lead.
🔗
4️⃣ Aros, from a dog photo Circle posted in 2015, then called "our client." This project first launched on the Robinhood chain and promised a 1:1 airdrop on Arc.
🔗
5️⃣ SLJ, full name Supreme Leader Jeremy, the most intense one. On April 16, 2026, an address called dprk.arc on Arc testnet minted a North Korea propaganda-themed NFT to Circle CEO @jerallaire's public address jerallaire.arc. The dprk.arc address was found to have received 80 million USDC bridged from the Drift Protocol hacker. SLJ is a meme coin mocking this incident.
🔗
Here's a simple rundown of the ecosystem so you won't be lost:
Market charts: @fomo, @gmgnai, @BasedBot, @ArcDEXScan
Cross-chain bridges: @lifiprotocol, @DYORSWAPDEX, @wormhole, @MaestroBots, and more
Popular tokens: 🔗
Launchpads: @Archemistdotfun, @actfunxyz, @warponarc, @DYORSWAPDEX
Block explorers: 🔗 and 🔗
TG trading bot: @BasedBot
DEX: @TowerExchange, @actfunxyz
Trading markets: @Orixaxyz
NFT projects: @ArcPunksNFT, @Arc_Punks, @KyneraOnArc
Faucet: 🔗
Also, here are some unofficial RPCs: 🔗
Arc hasn't officially launched yet. The previous temporary RPC shutdown shows the official team is controlling the pace. What will happen on September 16? What kind of commotion will these dogs and abstract memes on the chain cause? If you want to play, prepare your wallet and chain info in advance so you won't be caught off guard.
$UNI
Regarding $UNI, three key points to focus on
1. The narrative has shifted from a DEX to a blockchain liquidity operating system
2. Protocol revenue is used to burn $UNI, so the token's value is related to revenue, rather than being a governance token without real significance
3. Although 20 million new tokens are issued annually, based on the revenue from the past 30 days, it is deflationary (annualized burn exceeds 20 million)
Of course, currently the protocol revenue is highly correlated with the RH chain, so the main focus going forward is whether Uniswap's revenue can continue to grow
$BTC
Take a look at this small consolidation range; it might be forming a descending small wedge. So my judgment is that on the 4H chart, it can strongly break through this small structure, then consolidate with reduced volume near the recent previous high of 79.3K for a while, and continue to break out beyond 80K.
If it goes wrong here or 79K doesn't hold, it might test 75K again. Both scenarios have a 50% probability.
Of course, I hope it immediately breaks through 80K and heads to 90K, forming a wide range of over 10K points on the weekly chart, which would make trading much easier.
$BTC
$ETH
BTC closed with a lower shadow and a bearish real body this morning, marking two consecutive bearish daily candles.
Yesterday I said that BTC could lightly try going long when it retraces to the 7.68-7.65 support zone, which is a valid previous bottom support;
The market also formed a rebound after a wick, T1 long position took profit with 1000 points and exited, break-even stop loss for T2 with no pressure.
7.75 resistance turned support, the market returned to the range again, after breaking and stabilizing above 7.78 resistance, it rebounded with volume, follow the trend.
BTC touched around 7.65 forming a multiple bottom, will it form a W-shaped bottom rebound?
MACD shows bullish divergence and a golden cross, both are bullish signals! Follow the trend to go long and roll the position.
After BTC breaks and stabilizes above 7.78, roll the position accordingly, add T1 profits to the position and go long following the trend, targeting around 7.85 and 7.92 $BTC
$BTC
$ETH
When you feel the market is very boring,
it is often a sign of an upcoming reversal.
The BTC moving averages currently show a death cross,
with the short-term moving average crossing below the long-term moving average, indicating a bearish trend. The price is generally operating near the 1-hour middle band. Currently, 77582 is the short-term resistance level above, and the lower band near 76560 is the short-term support;
Although the price is fluctuating near the middle band, the Bollinger Bands middle band is starting to flatten, indicating a short-term phase of bulls and bears contesting. However, the overall recent market focus is shifting downward, with bears still dominant in the short term. If the price rebounds and breaks through the resistance level, the short-term bearish trend will be broken.
A rebound near the moving average can be used as a shorting opportunity.
$ETH's 1-hour chart movement is similar to BTC. After a pullback yesterday, the price rebounded, then faced resistance and fluctuated, but the price has always been below the middle band, indicating the middle band pressure is effective. The Bollinger Bands opening is continuously moving downward, suggesting the price has potential for another decline during the day.
Currently, the key resistance level above is near 2420. If the price breaks upward, it indicates bulls are gaining strength and the short-term trend may reverse. If the price still cannot break through the middle band, the price will continue to probe lower during the day.
$BTC
$ETH
Reviewing the last complete bull market cycle, the daily SMA 50 crossed above the SMA 200 a total of 4 times. Each golden cross of the moving averages acted as the starting gun for a major wave of price movement:
The first breakthrough (early 2023): Marked the clearing of the deep bear market and the establishment of the bull-bear transition, initiating the first phase of valuation recovery;
Mid-cycle continuation (late 2023 to 2025): The subsequent 3 crosses all occurred after the main upward wave's consolidation pullbacks, directly triggering several rounds of attempts to reach new all-time highs in the main bullish wave.
Now, the historical rhythm resonates again. After this round of deep correction, BTC spot price has strongly reclaimed above $76,000, driving the daily SMA 50 to quickly turn upward. Extending along the slope of the moving average, the SMA 50 is expected to complete its upward cross over the SMA 200 by the end of this month.
From a qualitative market perspective, this signal has dual significance:
Left-side bottom guessing turns to right-side confirmation: The golden cross of the moving averages completely ends the previous downtrend line suppression, completing the structural qualification from bear market defense to a bullish trend;
Chip accumulation support accelerates: Currently, the price continues to run above the two core moving averages, with the resistance line rapidly converting into a structurally strong support.
Although moving averages have lag, a golden cross in a large cycle is never noise; it is an objective mark that long-term capital has completed chip absorption and bullish momentum has fully returned.
The turning point has appeared; patiently await the unfolding of a new round of right-side price action.
$BTC
$ETH
How to confirm the end of the $BTC bear market? One indicator does it all:
When USDT Dominance (USDT.D) rose to a historical high of 9.488% on June 13, 2022, BTC's price was at 17567, already in the late stage of the bear market. Then, on November 7, 2022, USDT.D rose again to 9.422%, and at the same time, BTC's price dropped to 15512. Looking back now, when USDT.D rises above 9% again, that marks the bottom of the bear market.
Of course, history doesn't simply repeat itself, but I believe USDT.D provides a certain reference for judging BTC's movement rhythm. Perhaps in this bear market, we will also see a second peak in USDT.D, which would be the last chance to get in.
Will this time be different from 2022? Or is it always the same? I think we will get the answer in Q4.
Thought: Why was BTC priced at 17567 when USDT.D first rose to 9.488% in 2022, but on November 7, when USDT.D did not surpass 9.488%, BTC fell below 17567 to 15512?
