Post

Eve of Nonfarm Payrolls: 4 Numbers That Will Decide Your Fate on Friday Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls might be the final piece of the puzzle for a September rate hike decision. At this point, staying alive is more important than making money. Here are 4 numbers you must keep a close eye on 👇 Key Number One: 56.9% — CME's probability of a September rate hike A week ago, this number was 35.4%. After a few words from Waller at Jackson Hole, it shot up to 57%. The latest CME "FedWatch" data shows: a 43.1% chance of rates staying unchanged in September, and a 56.9% chance of a 25 basis point hike. Consensus shifted from rate cuts to rate hikes in just one Waller era. Key Number Two: 58,000 — Reuters' Nonfarm Payrolls forecast August Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to add 58,000 jobs. What does that mean? July Nonfarm Payrolls decreased by 23,000. From -23,000 to +58,000, the market expects a strong rebound. Deutsche Bank says 65,000, Wells Fargo says 80,000, ING also says 65,000. The lowest and highest forecasts differ by almost double. Key Number Three: 4.1% — Expected unemployment rate Unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.1%. But note a neglected detail: labor force participation is at a five-year low. Low participation rate + low unemployment rate = the job market isn’t as healthy as it appears. Key Number Four: $105.4k — Polymarket smart money's contrarian bet On Polymarket, 4 addresses have collectively staked $105,400 betting that the "rate cap remains unchanged after September." Their average buy-in probability is 58.9%, below the current market price of 63.5%. At the peak of rate hike expectations, someone is betting on no change. Three scenario simulations 👇 Scenario A: Nonfarm > 80,000 Rate hike probability soars above 70%. BTC may retrace to 75,000 or even 72,000. Scenario B: Nonfarm 30,000–60,000 Meets or slightly misses expectations. Market fluctuates with unclear direction. This is the most torturous. Scenario C: Nonfarm < 30,000 Rate hike probability plummets. BTC may violently rebound to above 82,000. Trading advice First, control leverage before Nonfarm; avoid heavy bets on direction. Second, watch implied volatility in the options market — huge swings are coming. Third, better to miss out than to make a wrong move. $BTC $XAU $ETH #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验