Everyone is asking Pharaoh, is the knife of a September rate hike really going to fall? CME FedWatch data shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September has reached 58.6%. Just a few days ago, when Waller was dovish, the probability was pushed down to around 50%, and Bitcoin surged from 76,200 directly to 81,780. But after the nonfarm payrolls came out at 162,000, the probability bounced back above 60%, now steady at 58.6%. The bulls and bears are battling more fiercely than Pharaoh wrestling camels in the desert. The data is strong, officials are more hawkish, a double squeeze. Cleveland Fed President Mester directly said: "It's time to take action." She was one of the three officials at the July FOMC meeting who opposed keeping rates unchanged, saying "monetary policy pressure on the economy is still insufficient." New York Fed President Williams also added a jab—he has no clear answer on whether current monetary policy is enough to bring inflation back to 2%. Waller is the only variable. He clearly said whether to hike in September depends on August CPI; if inflation data is hot, a rate hike will be considered, but he also expressed concerns about the risks of hiking during inflation decline. Within the hawkish camp, there is a dovish fallback. The impact on Bitcoin is direct. After the nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 far exceeded expectations, Bitcoin was hammered from 81,400 down to around 79,800, breaking below the 80,000 mark. The 2-year US Treasury yield surged 7.6 basis points, the US dollar index rose 0.3%, and the strong dollar increased the financing costs of crypto assets. Expectations of tightening macro liquidity are suppressing risk assets.