tvbee

tvbee

✦数据分析+宏观+投研 ✦人肉码字、人肉图表、非AI内容 ✦100%文章原创、拒绝人云亦云🦅 ✦PANews、Foresightnews、AIcoin等媒体专栏作者 ✦也是韭菜,分析能力大于交易水平,不撸毛

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Coinbase's order book, it feels like BTC is not optimistic right now. Brother Feng has also been continuously observing Coinbase's BTC market, especially after last night's non-farm payroll data release and the rise in rate hike expectations. Coinbase's buy orders are indeed stronger. But starting around the late night, the sell orders became a bit steep. There are about 411 BTC sell orders below 81,000. However, buy orders above 78,260 total about 270 BTC. Brother Feng has been continuously monitoring, and from late last night through this afternoon until evening, it has basically been this state.
tvbee
tvbee
Stay calm! Stay calm! Just take a look at the nonfarm payroll data! #8月非农16.2万远超预期,加息押注升温 August nonfarm payrolls far exceeded expectations, with a forecast of 55,000, previous value -23,000, actual 162,000. BTC dropped in response. Brother Feng just said that the U.S. is in a midterm election market, aiming to create prosperity. So nonfarm payrolls definitely can't be low. Don't forget the downward trend in ADP's small nonfarm data. The nonfarm data will likely be revised downward later. Unemployment rate unchanged, labor force participation increased. Same logic, all for the sake of "prosperity." On the contrary, wage data is not very favorable; the annual wage rate exceeded expectations, the monthly rate met expectations but was ahead of the previous value. This is not very good for CPI. But for "prosperity," it is guessed that August's CPI won't be bad either. The Fed will not raise rates just because of August's employment data. Don't forget, Waller's speech last night said that the decision to support a rate hike depends on August's CPI data, and he didn't mention nonfarm payrolls at all!
tvbee
tvbee
Why does it feel like the bear market isn't over yet? ┈➤ Let's start with some casual talk Logically, every bear market should teach us something. From the last one, we learned that altcoins were just a way to cut losses. But now, looking at it, it's still MEME, the narrative hasn't changed at all? Could it be that we haven't learned anything this round? ┈➤ Now for a serious point Another serious point to make is that we are currently in a wave of market activity brought on by the midterm elections. The US Congress is up for re-election: the entire House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate. Although both chambers are up for election, the Treasury, Labor, Commerce, and 15 other cabinet departments haven't changed leadership; Trump is still in charge. Although the Federal Reserve, SEC, and other committees are officially independent, most officials probably wouldn't want to undermine Trump at this particular time. The current majority party (Republicans) is working hard to create prosperity and leave voters with a good final impression to win the midterm elections. However, this prosperity is temporary and not a true reflection of the US economy's health. Of course, the midterm election campaign might just be getting started: Maybe new candidates have already begun their efforts, but current representatives will return to their states in late September to focus on election work. The Treasury's previously proposed accelerated long-term bond purchases will also only begin on September 9.
tvbee
tvbee
Why does it feel like the bear market isn't over yet? ┈➤ Let's start with some casual talk Logically, every bear market should teach us something. From the last one, we learned that altcoins were just a way to cut losses. But now, looking at it, it's still MEME, the narrative hasn't changed at all? Could it be that we haven't learned anything this round? ┈➤ Now for a serious point Another serious point to make is that we are currently in a wave of market activity brought on by the midterm elections. The US Congress is up for re-election: the entire House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate. Although both chambers are up for election, the Treasury, Labor, Commerce, and 15 other cabinet departments haven't changed leadership; Trump is still in charge. Although the Federal Reserve, SEC, and other committees are officially independent, most officials probably wouldn't want to undermine Trump at this particular time. The current majority party (Republicans) is working hard to create prosperity and leave voters with a good final impression to win the midterm elections. However, this prosperity is temporary and not a true reflection of the US economy's health. Of course, the midterm election campaign might just be getting started: Maybe new candidates have already begun their efforts, but current representatives will return to their states in late September to focus on election work. The Treasury's previously proposed accelerated long-term bond purchases will also only begin on September 9.
tvbee
tvbee
After the financial sector went live, what is Brother Feng's OKX prediction points strategy? #OKX预言家:9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 In the first season, since I really didn't understand sports and esports, I made 20 predictions daily, buying 1XP each time, then immediately selling. On one hand, it was not very interesting; on the other hand, the XP that could be accumulated was limited. In the second season, Brother Feng didn't play, but now that the financial sector is out, it's time to try it. Although the second season has been underway for half a month, Brother Feng might still catch up. Brother Feng firmly believes the Federal Reserve will not raise rates in September, so his strategy is: ◆ Check in daily to receive 10XP plus extra rewards. ◆ Make 20 predictions daily, buying 1XP each and selling immediately, with negligible loss. Total 600XP earned. ◆ Use any XP exceeding 99 each day to bet on the September rate remaining unchanged. This leaves less than 100XP daily, then claim the daily 100XP from the points refuel station. This way, you can earn an extra 100XP daily from refueling, and on the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting day, September 16, you will likely win some additional XP. This gives a chance to break into the top 10,000 and earn USDT rewards. Let's see if Brother Feng's strategy works after the second season ends.
tvbee
tvbee
Breaking: There may not be much time left for the Crypto "Clarity Act"! The situation really isn't looking good!! ┈➤ House of Representatives is pressed for time The House has canceled votes for the two weeks of September 21 and September 28. The House will start work on September 14, hold a 4-day session, then leave Washington to return to their states to campaign for the midterm elections, after all, House members can be re-elected indefinitely. ┈➤ Senate is wavering The problem is, the Crypto "Clarity Act" is currently stuck in the Senate, and the Senate's version is different from the House's. So at the earliest, it requires: Senate pre-vote (procedural vote) passage, Senate formal vote passage, and then the House voting again to approve the Senate's version. If the procedural vote passes, there may still be formal debates and possibly amendments. After the Senate vote passes, it is uncertain whether the House will make further changes. From September 15 to September 18, there are only 4 days left; the time left for the Crypto "Clarity Act" is really limited. ┈➤ An even bigger issue is the Democrats might retake both chambers An even bigger issue is that current media polls, including Polymarket's market, show the Democrats' support rate is higher than the Republicans'. If the Democrats retake both chambers, especially the Senate, then whether the Crypto "Clarity Act" can pass is really uncertain...
tvbee
tvbee
Strange! Why is BTC falling? The ADP nonfarm employment data has declined for three consecutive months, falling short of expectations for three months in a row. #非农前数据分化,9月加息预期升温 The ADP nonfarm data was weaker than expected, with a forecast of 48,000 but an actual figure of 38,000. The ADP nonfarm data has declined for three consecutive months and has been below expectations for three consecutive months. The ADP nonfarm data is compiled by the market data company ADP, not the Department of Labor, nor an agency under Trump, so its credibility is still quite high. Moreover, the trend of the ADP nonfarm data aligns with the trend of the Department of Labor's nonfarm data. This is a resistance to the Fed's rate hikes, which is actually somewhat positive news. I don't understand why the market still fell at 8:30 PM. Maybe it's sentiment. Brother Feng sold ETH at 2450 yesterday, but there are orders near 2350, which haven't been filled yet...
tvbee
tvbee
Robinhood chain is going crazy, funds are flowing in rapidly #Robinhood链上交易激增,币股Meme成主角 In the past 30 days, $12.585 million USD has net flowed into the Robinhood chain via deBridge, averaging a daily net inflow of $419,500. In the past 7 days, $5.035 million USD has net flowed into the Robinhood chain through deBridge, averaging a daily net inflow of $719,300. On August 31 alone, $1.688 million USD net flowed into the Robinhood chain via deBridge in just one day. Funds are accelerating into Robinhood! According to deBridge data, among the funds flowing into the Robinhood chain, the largest source is Solana, followed by Ethereum, Arbitrum, Base, and BSC chains. During this ecological transition, deBridge is quite useful, allowing you to cross-chain buy tokens on the Robinhood chain with just one step using funds from other chains, for example . You don't even need to prepare Gas on the Robinhood chain in advance. Recommended to bookmark! When a chain suddenly explodes, you can quickly cross-chain buy coins and avoid missing the buying opportunity.
tvbee
tvbee
The biggest misunderstanding in Web3 history — MicroStrategy "buying high and selling low"? MicroStrategy is not a reason for "selling low," as thoroughly analyzed in the previous article. This one talks about how MicroStrategy does not "buy high." You have to know, MicroStrategy is not using deposits to buy BTC; it issues $MSTR to finance buying BTC. When BTC is expensive, MSTR is also expensive. The higher the BTC price, the higher the MSTR premium, so issuing MSTR to buy BTC is actually more cost-effective! At a low point, issuing 10,000 MSTR can only buy 14 BTC. At a high point, issuing 10,000 MSTR can buy 40 to 60 BTC. Obviously, issuing MSTR to buy BTC at a high point is more cost-effective. No wonder Saylor is a genius; SBF might never catch up in this lifetime. What MicroStrategy really wants is not just on-paper profit. ◆ For the corporate entity: Because MicroStrategy does not sell BTC at high prices, there is no distributable profit, so no traditional corporate income tax is due. ◆ For preferred shareholders: Preferred shareholders like $STRC also do not have to pay dividend withholding tax. ◆ For common shareholders: Although the company has no distributable profit and MSTR shareholders receive no dividends, they can still make money as BTC rises. The result is a win-win-win! The only loser might be the U.S. Treasury, which collects less tax.
tvbee
tvbee
Brothers!! I finally understand why MicroStrategy sold BTC at the bottom! Damn, it's really damn! Here's the deal: Brother Feng bought $STRC, then received dividends, which were $5.64 in half a month. He holds 11.27581758 shares, each with a par value of $100. The annualized yield is 5.64 / (11.27581758 * 100) * 24 = 12%. This is the STRC dividend yield, and surprisingly, it doesn't incur tax on preferred stock dividends. Brother Feng did some research and found out that according to US regulations, if a listed company has no distributable profits, then preferred stock dividends are not taxed! When MicroStrategy sells BTC below cost, it results in realized losses, so preferred shareholders don't have to pay taxes at that time. Now BTC has exceeded MicroStrategy's cost price, but even if MicroStrategy sells BTC now, the profits must first cover previous losses; only the remainder might be distributable profits. So even if MicroStrategy is profitable, as long as it doesn't sell much BTC, STRC shareholders can still avoid taxes and directly receive a 12% annualized yield. Saylor was actually fighting for the interests of STRC shareholders, and the source of this benefit is not paid by $MSTR holders, nor borne by BTC holders, but by the US Treasury losing tax revenue. At the same time, this also means that after MicroStrategy becomes profitable, the amount of BTC it is willing to sell is very small. Doesn't it suddenly feel like double happiness?
tvbee
tvbee
With the midterm elections approaching, the US military strikes Iran again. Who gave Trump the courage? Liang Jingru? Of course not! ┈➤ The US and Venezuela reach an oil agreement ◆ August 28: Trump announced an oil agreement with Venezuela. ◆ August 29-30: Venezuela disclosed more details of the agreement. ◆ August 30-31: The US military attacked Iran again. ┈➤ A decent agreement This cooperation is between the US government and Venezuela's private company NABEP, which does not own oil fields but only has development rights. In terms of shareholding, the US holds 35%, Venezuela holds 65%. The US can purchase 20% of the oil production at cost price with priority. Overall, Venezuela holds a higher equity share at 65%, while the US side has a higher oil production allocation right at 55%. Therefore, Venezuela still retains sovereignty and control over oil resources. The US gains future crude oil supply. ┈➤ In conclusion It is precisely because of this agreement that Trump has confidence. After the reconstruction of Venezuela's oil industry, crude oil production can increase and be exported to the US, which will help lower US oil prices. Of course, rebuilding Venezuela's oil infrastructure, which has been idle for many years, also takes time. So in the short term, it at most soothes market sentiment. Trump is unlikely to take large-scale action against Iran in the short term. At least not before the midterm elections.
tvbee
tvbee
Has this wave of BTC's market ended? ┈➤ Perspective 1: Daily RSI Divergence The daily-level RSI indeed shows divergence. See Figure 1. During the surge in May, after the daily RSI14 divergence, there was a pullback, then it surged again. So for the daily-level divergence, we saw BTC pull back to around 77,000. But the current divergence in the May surge does not yet indicate the market has ended. ┈➤ Perspective 2: USDT Capital Flow As shown in Figure 2, the USDT market cap has generally been on an upward trend over the past week. It dropped after Wash's speech but quickly recovered. Also, as shown in Figure 3, USDT has been fluctuating near 1 USD in the past week, with about half the time at a positive premium. It dropped after Wash's speech but soon returned near 1 USD, currently at 0.9999 USD. There is no sign of capital outflow, indicating this wave may not be over yet. ┈➤ Perspective 3: Wash's Speech Wash is still somewhat hawkish, but it doesn't necessarily mean an immediate rate hike. The Federal Reserve must create expectations for rate hikes; no further analysis needed—simply put, it's to suppress the "wage-inflation" spiral. Although CME interest rate futures show a 59.7% probability of a rate hike in September and a 40.3% chance of no change. However, PM predicts a 51% chance of no rate change in September, as shown in Figure 4. So a September hike is not certain; Brother Feng's analysis is that there will be no hike. Overall, this wave of BTC's market may not be over yet.