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Your long position is only 3,000 points apart from the 1.5 billion margin call
This afternoon, a number appeared on the market: 61456.
This isn't a support line drawn by anyone; it's a threshold calculated from the liquidation intensity. If BTC falls below this level, the cumulative liquidation strength of long positions on mainstream exchanges will reach $1.527 billion. To put it plainly, if you drop over 3,000 points from here, over $1.5 billion in long positions will be forcibly wiped out by the system, whether you like it or not.
I checked the current position: BTC is grinding between 64,000 and 65,000, touched 65,008 today, then dropped again, now just over 64,000. Just over 3,000 points from 61,456. It sounds distant, but if you look at the timeframe, there were several intraday fluctuations of 3,000 points in July.
Look to the other side. Above, 67341 has a short wall of 1.437 billion yuan, just over 2,000 points below the current price. The lower wall has 3,000 points, the upper wall has 2,000 points, and the upper wall is closer. This is why the market keeps pushing upward and then falling back down. Pushing upward means taking short positions, falling downward means taking long positions. Both sides have profit, and no one is willing to move first.
I care more about the direction of the money. In the past 24 hours, Binance saw a net inflow of 448 million USDT, showing that the money was indeed flowing into the exchange. But the money coming in isn't necessarily a buying bid; it could be used to pay margin, be ready to take stock, or be ready to dump. The same U was put into the exchange, and no one knew what it was for. This is the easiest place to deceive on-chain data—jumping to conclusions just by looking at inflows and outflows usually leads to failure.
By the way, here's a contrast. Coinbase's premium remains at -0.11, with 79 consecutive days of negative losses since May 19. The lower this number, the weaker the buying pressure in the U.S. domestic spot market. On one side, BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of 244 million yuan for three consecutive days; on the other, the premium has been underwater for nearly three months. Institutions are using their own channels, while retail investors haven't connected at all. When these two numbers compete, I trust premium more; it's the real money difference on the market and can't be faked.
How should the 1.527 billion yuan settlement be used? My view is not to treat it as a prediction; it's more like a map marking which floor is hollow. If the price really drops to around 61,456, that segment will move especially fast, because it's not the people selling but the system itself. If you want to buy in that range, first figure out if your leverage can withstand those few minutes of pin insertion.
The 200-week moving average is now at 63,657, which is the average cost line for all buyers over the past four years. BTC had just climbed up shortly after its volume. Standing on it without measuring is not much different from not standing at all.
In the short term, this kind of wall-like structure is most frustrating for frequent people coming and going, with fees and slippage being deducted daily. Looking at the longer term, the chip trading within this range is not a bad thing; the longer you grind, the less floating chips you have.
With your current position, can you still hold a drop of 3,000 points? Or are you already calculating the liquidation price?#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 $SKHY
存储这波集体下杀回到下跌通道
海力士1100附近开的空单还在拿着，现价已经来到1051附近
看今晚能不能跌破支撑持续下杀
前面说过，1070-1050是第一支撑区，现在价格已经跌到这一区间，说明反弹失败后的下跌结构还在继续兑现。
这波逻辑一直没变：
利好集中落地，但板块涨不动；下跌通道没突破，反而连支撑也开始失守。
✔ 1100附近开空
✔ 现价1056，已经走出44个点
✔ 原始止损1132
✔ 弱势延续，目标继续看1012附近
当前位置我不会再追空，只管理手里的仓位。浮盈扩大以后，也会逐步收紧保护，不让盈利单重新变成亏损。
我空的不是整个存储周期，而是利好出尽以后，这波反弹依然失败。
现在价格已经给出答案，剩下的就是按计划执行。SanDisk and Western Digital plunged sharply in after-hours trading after their earnings releases. Both posted slightly better-than-expected results for the period, but their guidance for next quarter fell short of expectations. Coupled with weaker growth compared to Seagate in Western Digital, the decline was triggered.
The overall fundamentals of the storage industry are positive, with AI driving strong demand and tight supply. This is a short-term correction with overly high expectations and only two minor risks. The long-term industry prosperity logic remains unchanged, and the outlook remains positiveADP employment cools, Fed policy divergence intensifies: the market is repricing the next phase of direction
The U.S. job market is sending out new signals.
The latest ADP employment data shows a significant slowdown in corporate hiring and new jobs falling short of market expectations. Although ADP data is not fully equivalent to the official non-farm payroll data, as an important indicator of U.S. companies' willingness to hire, it still influences the market's assessment of economic resilience.
In recent times, one of the biggest pillars of the U.S. economy has been the job market.
Consumption relies on employment, economic growth depends on consumption, and the Fed's important policy formulation references also come from employment and inflation.
Now that ADP employment is cooling down, market attention has once again returned to a core issue:
Is the U.S. economy on a "soft landing," or is it gradually entering a phase of growth pressure?
From the current situation, the slowdown in employment is a double-edged sword for the market.
On one hand, cooling employment means wage growth pressure may ease, which is conducive to further inflation decline, which will increase market expectations for future policy shifts.
On the other hand, if employment continues to deteriorate, it could mean economic momentum is declining, and the Fed needs to be more cautious in balancing inflation targets and economic pressures.
This is also why there has been a clear divergence within the Fed recently.
Some officials believe that inflation remains sticky and policy adjustments should not be made too soon, or prices may rebound again.
Others argue that as the job market cools, policies need to pay more attention to economic growth risks.
In short:
Hawks worry that "inflation is not over."
Dovish factions worry that "the economy is starting to slow down."
What the market is truly waiting for is the balance between the two.
For risk assets, the impact of ADP employment cooling is also quite complex.
If the market interprets this as "the economy is cooling but not in recession," then improved liquidity expectations could support tech stocks, growth assets, and the crypto market.
But if subsequent data continues to deteriorate—such as a significant rise in unemployment or increased layoffs—the market may begin trading in recession risks, and short-term volatility will increase.
For DaDing and Ethereum, the core logic still revolves around two directions:
First, look at US dollar liquidity expectations.
If employment continues to weaken, market expectations for a loose environment may strengthen, which would support risk assets.
Second, look at the risk appetite of the capital.
If investors believe the economy is cooling rather than recession, then funds may continue to seek high-growth directions.
But if the market starts worrying about a hard economic landing and risk-averse sentiment intensifies, short-term rallies are prone to fluctuation.
So what the market is truly trading now is not just a single ADP data, but how the U.S. economic cycle is changing.
My viewpoint:
The cooling employment does not mean the economy is facing immediate problems, but it reminds the market that the strongest pillar of the U.S. economy is gradually weakening.
Next, focus on three key points:
First, will nonfarm payroll data continue to weaken?
Second, whether inflation data will continue to decline.
Third, whether the Fed's policy path will become further diverged.
The market is never trading a single data sheet but trading future expectations.
For traders, it is crucial to control the pace at this stage and avoid chasing rises and selling losses based on a single piece of news.
True major market movements often arise from resonance between economic cycles and capital flows. The market is now waiting for the next certainty signal. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #ADP就业降温, Fed policy divergences have intensified 一份超预期的财报，最后却没换来上涨。
这恰恰说明，现在市场交易的重点已经变了。
SpaceX交出了上市后的首份财报，营收、AI业务增速、亏损收窄等核心数据都好于市场预期，但盘后股价却没有延续强势，反而出现回落。说明资金关注的，已经不只是业绩本身。
真正让市场犹豫的，是接下来的两个变量。
一个是AI投入。虽然AI业务表现亮眼，但公司同时表示未来仍会保持较高的资本开支，短期利润率难免受到影响，长期投资者看到的是成长空间，短线资金看到的却是成本压力。
另一个，也是更现实的压力——8月6日将迎来约9.115亿股股份解禁。 解禁并不意味着一定会抛售，但意味着潜在供给大幅增加，市场往往会提前反映这部分风险，所以即使财报超预期，也很难立刻推动股价继续上攻。
从交易的角度来看，我觉得现在已经不是在交易财报，而是在交易预期。
如果解禁之后实际卖压没有市场担心的那么大，很可能会上演一波”利空兑现”后的修复；但如果早期股东集中兑现收益，短期波动大概率还会继续放大。
业绩决定长期价值，资金面决定短期价格。
至少对现在的SpaceX来说，后者才是未来几天市场最关注的焦点。$SKHYNIX 韩国没给加密征税留后门，这次真的要收网了
8月5日，韩国国会正式通过决议——虚拟资产征税法案不延期，按原计划推进。$SNDK
2026年1月1日起，加密资产交易所得正式征税，税率22%，每年250万韩元免征额。此前业界预期会再次延期，毕竟从2022年到现在已经延了三次。这次不退让了。
短期情绪冲击，韩国散户可能减仓观望，盘面有压力但不至于崩盘。
中期合规加速，征税意味着加密资产被正式纳入金融监管体系，机构资金入口正在打开，短期阵痛长期利好。长期看，韩元稳定币和合规交易所可能加速落地。
短期看情绪，中期看合规，长期看格局。有浮盈的规划税务成本，有长期配置需求的等情绪释放完再动手。
看不懂就等着，结构会告诉你答案。
#Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ 🎯 Gold surges 3%, but BTC sleeps at 64,000: Is the "digital gold" narrative shattered?
This morning, gold and silver soared across the board.
Spot gold: surged to 4300 USD
Spot silver: broke through 62 USD
COMEX gold futures: hit a high of 4267 USD, up over 3% intraday
The catalyst is simple:
US July ADP employment added only 44,000 jobs (expected 65,000-75,000). The employment data was a major miss, directly suppressing rate hike expectations. As a result, both the dollar and US Treasury yields plunged, while gold and silver took off.
But what is BTC, the so-called "digital gold," doing?
It is consolidating around 64,000 USD, with an intraday gain of less than 1%, steady as a rock, showing no volatility.
📉 Data doesn't lie: correlation completely broken
Looking back at the data, you'll find the "digital gold" narrative no longer holds in 2026:
Short-term performance: gold surged 3% in a day, BTC barely reacted.
Long-term trend: gold has gained 9% this year, while BTC has dropped 11%.
Expert opinions: Deutsche Bank bluntly states BTC is "no longer digital gold"; Peter Schiff is even sharper, arguing the correlation never truly existed.
❓ While gold is soaring, what is BTC waiting for?
If it’s not following gold, what is BTC following?
Following US stocks? The S&P and Nasdaq are up, but BTC isn’t following.
Following capital flows? ETFs had a net inflow of 211.5 million USD on Tuesday, yet the price remained unchanged.
Following geopolitics? Progress in US-Iran talks caused no market reaction.
💡 Core conclusion: pricing logic has completely decoupled
It’s not that BTC is failing, but its underlying pricing logic has diverged from gold’s path.
Gold trades on: interest rate expectations, absolute safe haven demand, and traditional fiat credit hedging.
BTC trades on: crypto-specific liquidity, regulatory compliance progress, and its own halving cycle.
BTC’s current inability to fall or rise beyond 64,000 USD is because it’s waiting for its own "real catalyst" (such as an actual rate cut or substantial moves by major institutions).
Next time someone mindlessly claims "BTC is digital gold," just throw today’s candlestick chart in their face. Gold is partying, BTC is sleeping. This is the most truthful answer for 2026.
$BTC $ETH $XAU
#黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？ $CVX 日内7%的反弹难以掩盖事件抛压与仓位恶化的结构性风险。Convex TVL一周下挫24.3%至4.586亿美元，2026年迄今收入下降超80%，配合遗留的50万枚锁仓CVX解锁预期，显著抑制追高风险偏好。一旦抛盘触发跌破1.36-1.40美元支撑防线，价格大概率进一步探向1.18-1.20美元。多头逆转前提是日线有效站稳1.53-1.58美元阻力区且协议贿赂收入出现显著回暖。
#俄罗斯加密监管法9月生效，交易与支付边界明确 #CLARITY法案推进受阻，参议院分歧扩大 #意大利大行减IBIT普通股94%，加仓质押ETH1. Analysis of SanDisk's subsequent trends
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion, up 372% year-on-year, but its stock price plunged in after-hours trading, down 47% in July. The highest increase this year reached 858%, with the market fully pricing in the ultra-high expectations for AI storage—the current transaction is no longer "earnings delivered," but rather "consistently beating expectations." The company's median revenue guidance for next quarter is $10.55 billion, significantly below analysts' expectations of $11.16 billion. Any signal that falls short of expectations could trigger a sharp correction.
Core risks are concentrated in three points: First, the gross margin of 84.6% is near a historic high, with guidance for next quarter remaining flat, and two-thirds of revenue growth is driven by price increases rather than volume expansion, so the marginal dividends from price increases are diminishing; Second, consumer business plunged 32% month-on-month, with the company overly reliant on a few cloud providers, resulting in a high concentration of customers weakening bargaining power; Third, storage cycle risks remain unresolved. Every time a super #SanDisk financial report in history exceeds expectations, with a new $14 billion buyback that follows a downturn, and Yangtze Memory's global market share has climbed to about 13%, the competitive landscape continues to deteriorate.
The high growth in performance cannot hide multiple pressures such as expected overdraw, peak gross margins, cyclical turning points, and the rise of Chinese competitors. SanDisk remains a good company, but after its stock price surged this year, it has seriously drawn into its future, and the risk of valuation revaluation should not be underestimated.
#闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added
#财报观察员: Mixed results, lifting restrictions imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future?
#ADP就业降温, Fed policy divides have intensified $SNDK #内存卖方市场延续，韩股能否迎来反转？
有意思的行情，内存合约涨价周期还在往前走，但是韩股存储板块已经被按下来狠狠捶了一波，很多人搞不懂，明明基本面很硬，股价为什么跌得这么凶，后面到底能不能反转。
集邦的数据摆在台面上，三季度DRAM合约价环比预计继续涨13%-18%，NAND闪存环比涨10%-15%，已经连续五个季度上行，卖方市场格局没有改变。供给端三大厂商扩产非常克制，大规模新增产能要等到2027年年中才会释放；AI服务器持续吞噬企业级存储产能，厂商优先保障高利润的算力订单，消费级产能被不断挤压，供需缺口短期很难抹平。
业绩层面也实实在在兑现。三星二季度存储业务营收大幅走高，DRAM市占率重新回到39%，夺回全球第一的位置；SK海力士利润率创出历史新高，账面现金十分充裕。但财报落地之后股价反而杀跌，核心不是业绩崩了，是前期市场把预期打得太满，只要稍微不及一致预期，资金就会直接跑路。
这一轮韩股暴跌，很大一部分锅要算在本土杠杆资金头上。
之前韩国散户疯狂冲两倍杠杆ETF押注存储，杠杆规模快速膨胀，市场一半的波动都是融资盘堆出来的。监管抬高保证金门槛之后，杠杆ETF成交额直接暴跌九成，大量账户被动平仓，踩踏把三星、SK海力士砸出巨大回撤，属于典型杠杆出清带来的杀跌，不完全是基本面驱动。
另外两个现实隐患也一直在压制估值：
第一，HBM的垄断叙事被打破。SK海力士HBM份额从高点回落，三星下半年会向英伟达批量交付HBM4，市场担心超高利润会被分流；
第二，美股存储板块情绪拖累，闪迪业绩指引不及预期，带崩全球半导体板块，韩股权重集中，波动会被进一步放大。
那到底能不能走出反转行情？
看多的逻辑很清晰：存储涨价周期没有结束，下半年HBM4批量出货，企业级SSD需求继续爆发，三季度业绩还有上修空间；经过一轮猛烈去杠杆，板块估值已经回落到很低位置，不少机构已经提示修复机会，AI算力资本开支的大逻辑没有被破坏。
但千万不要直接闭眼抄底，风险同样不能忽视。
美联储加息预期反复摇摆，美元走强，外资重仓的韩股会持续受宏观流动性牵制；国产存储厂商持续扩产，虽然现阶段主攻中低端，但长期会慢慢挤压份额；还有消费电子需求持续疲软，如果后续AI资本开支不及预期，涨价周期有可能提前见顶。
放到币圈这边也要多留个心眼。AI算力的预期会跨市场传导，韩股存储代表全球AI硬件的情绪，如果这边持续走弱，BTC、ETH这类风险资产也容易被连带压制；如果存储板块修复回暖，对整个风险资产市场也是间接利好。
总结下来，内存卖方市场还在延续，但直接V型反转难度很大，大概率是大跌之后震荡磨底。真正的趋势机会，还是要看三季度业绩落地，还有HBM4实际出货数据来验证。
你们觉得韩股存储现在是跌出黄金坑，还是下跌才刚刚开始？ [In-depth Analysis] L1 + DEX + Infrastructure: Breakdown of ALD Ecosystem Layout and Node Mechanisms
Looking back at the development history of public blockchains, early network validators and ecosystem builders often played key roles in network scaling and consensus building. As Web3 architectures evolve toward diversification in 2026, single-function networks are facing challenges in ecosystem capacity, while integrated infrastructure is gradually becoming one of the market focal points.
ALD attempts to create a closed-loop ecosystem from underlying computing power to upper-layer application flow through a trinity architecture of "public chain + decentralized exchange (DEX) + Web3 infrastructure."
1. Core Ecosystem Logic
Three-dimensional collaboration: Deeply binds the underlying L1 scaling capabilities with native DEX liquidity pools, while relying on the infrastructure layer to lower the threshold for Web3 application development and improve on-chain interaction efficiency.
Node Network Staking: Unlike some leading public chains that require tens of thousands of USDT in staking thresholds, ALD launched its first batch of partner node solutions (with an entry threshold set at around 800 USDT) before mainnet launch, aiming to reduce the centralization of validator node distribution and attract a broader early community to participate in decentralized network construction.
2. Node ladder mechanism
According to the official community node expansion roadmap, the first batch of nodes is limited to 1,000 nodes, with a stepwise increment mechanism introduced in later phases. This design aims to prioritize incentives for early network builders, ensuring the stability and cohesion of early validator node distribution.
For creators and investors following the early development of public chain ecosystems, observing the progress of network construction and tokenomics design before the mainnet launch is a key indicator for evaluating its long-term value. Guys, CVX rose 7% today, with the veteran DeFi leader showing a technical rebound from the bottom. The protocol still controls about 52% of Curve's voting power, but TVL has clearly declined in the short term—governance dominance remains, but profitability is declining.
What is CVX?
Convex Finance is the "governance hub" of the Curve ecosystem. By locking vlCVX, CVX holders control about 52% of Curve's voting rights, with the direction of weekly CRV liquidity incentive allocation decisions made by CVX holders.
The maximum token supply is 100 million hard caps, with institutional and team ownership unlocking fully completed in 2025, with almost no new project selling pressure, and nearly 93% of market circulation remains in circulation. vlCVX is a user-actively locked token, not a token waiting to be unlocked by the project.
However, protocol fundamentals have clearly weakened: Phase slicing data shows Convex TVL fell 24.3% over the week to $458.6 million; Protocol revenue fell from $35.7 million in full-year 2025 to only $6.6 million so far in 2026, a decline of over 80%.
Hidden risk: Mochi whale positions left behind in 2021
In November 2021, Mochi Finance founder manipulated oracles, extracting about $46 million in liquidity and buying 1.05 million CVX locked in Convex.
On March 19, 2026, this address sold 550,000 CVX, directly plunging the price from 1.97 to 1.68. Currently, about 500,000 CVX are still locked in Convex, and future unlocks and selling will create potential selling pressure.
Key price points
Resistance levels: 1.53-1.58 (a breakout would target 1.74-1.80),
Support below: 1.36-1.40 (if it fails, 1.18-1.20).
1.53-1.58 is the key resistance zone, and 1.36 is the bullish defensive line. TVL fell 24% in one week, revenue shrank by 80%, and the sustained rebound requires fundamental support.
CVX has the scarce Curve governance moat, with a clean token unlock structure. However, TVL and protocol revenue continued to shrink, weakening fundamentals. The value of governance rights is real, but the ongoing decline in protocol profitability will further weaken this narrative.
Additionally, the 500,000 locked CVX left by Mochi's founder represents a potential selling pressure hanging overhead.
For CVX, tracking Curve's TVL and Convex protocol bribery fee income is far more valuable than tracking short-term candlesticks.
Personal market view analysis and market information compilation, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $CVX
#财报观察员: Mixed results, lifting restrictions imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future?
#闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added
#Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC experience new growth? 山寨币只做多不做空，做多最多一倍，做空乱余生，做空容易赚可以天天赚，遇到一个妖币基本废废……
举个例子吧，HEI如果在0.1买1000刀归零就亏1000刀，0.1做多1000刀0.5那就是赚5000刀，做多盈利无上限，做空盈利有限。
山寨币热度来了总会出现几个妖币，在币圈想屌丝逆袭其实不是不可能，毕竟在币圈做空的人远多于任意市场，大家都知道山寨币最终会归零，理论上只要资金足够大做空就能做多永赚，可你我都是屌丝何来的无限子弹呢。
大部分山寨币里面都潜伏的有庄家，你只需要观察持仓量就OK，小市值山寨币合约的壳子大概也就500万刀，这也就是很多山寨币只要没下架市值几乎都会买500万刀左右。
那么500万刀的市值，没热度没流动性为什么持仓有两三百万刀，双向持仓和市值持平，你说这样的山寨会不会有庄呢。
对于这种山寨币，你只需要埋伏，给他1000刀，你的成本比庄低，你的优势可以快进快出，庄家走不掉，船大难调头，如果持续跌庄家比你亏的多，所以不是路不平。
总之想要逆袭前期就是做多而做空短期确实可以挣钱遇到妖币那就洗洗睡，做空乱余生啊。
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 $SNDK $BTC The AI infrastructure boom faces new obstacles: Is the American community starting to say "no"?
Competition in the AI era is becoming increasingly fierce, but now a new question is emerging—where exactly should data centers be built?
On August 6, it was reported that U.S. Congressman Ro Kana plans to introduce a "Data Center Rights Bill," aiming to give local communities more decision-making power and allow residents to reject data center projects that do not align with local interests.
Why did this spark controversy?
Because behind AI lies not only code and algorithms, but also a large number of data centers to support it.
These massive AI infrastructures are consuming massive amounts of energy and water, and many residents are worried:
Will electricity prices go up?
Will local water pressure increase?
Will the original farmland and residential areas turn into large server bases?
Khanna said that during his recent visit to Pennsylvania, the most common feedback he received was opposition to the rapid expansion of data centers.
His point is clear:
AI development can be supported, but ordinary communities must not be forced to bear the costs.
Currently, the proposal includes several requirements, including:
Data center construction requires local community recognition;
Enhancing energy use transparency;
Prioritize the use of clean and reliable energy;
Limit pollution emissions.
In fact, some regions have already begun to take action, with some places, including New York State, restricting or even suspending new data center construction.
This reflects a bigger issue:
The AI wave is entering a "battle for infrastructure," but behind the rapid expansion lies challenges in energy, land, and social costs.
In the past, the market focused on:
Who has the strongest AI model;
Possible future attention includes:
Who can solve the energy problem behind computing power?
AI is not just a competition of technology, but also a competition of resources.
In short:
The future of AI is not just about computing power, but also about who can make computing power truly realized.火箭6日面临解禁，本周前期，整个商业航天板块氛围其实不差，中型火箭龙头Rocket Lab直接爆出重磅利好，接连拿下两笔美国太空军大额合同，两单加起来6.63亿美元，既有卫星组网建造订单，还有长期发射任务合约，直接锁定未来一年稳定营收。消息一出，资金立马进场布局，个股稳步上行，整周累计涨幅超11%，在大盘震荡、存储股大跌的环境里走出独立行情。
市场当时的逻辑很简单：军工航天订单确定性拉满，不会像消费闪存一样受周期波动影响，叠加卫星互联网、太空算力的长期故事，属于资金避险优选。不少交易者借着闪迪空头仓位，搭配火箭股做多做对冲，用来平衡板块波动风险。
但赛道龙头SpaceX直接给整个航天题材泼了一盆冷水。8月4日盘内走势还算平稳，市场原本期待上市首份财报能够彻底稳住估值。财报纸面数据其实十分能打，营收同比接近翻倍，利润增幅直接接近200%，星链业务盈利状况持续改善。
可资本市场从来不看过去的成绩，公司披露接下来会在太空AI算力、星舰研发上砸出巨额资本开支，意味着短期很难进入利润兑现阶段。资金瞬间失去耐心，盘后股价直接跳水7个多点，日内上涨全部回吐。
利空还没结束，紧接着市场开始发酵巨额解禁利空，8月6日迎来超9亿股原始股份解禁，早期投资人持仓成本极低，随时会出现集中抛售。恐慌情绪扩散之后，SpaceX盘中最大跌幅突破10%，上市以来高点直接腰斩，万亿市值灰飞烟灭，顺带拖累一众中小航天概念股冲高回落。很多媒体都在疯传"段永平大幅减持泡泡玛特，从 7.65% 降到了 5.55%"，说段永平要投降了，承认自己错误投资了泡泡玛特，真的是这样吗？
其实，这是一个极其经典的"不懂期权导致的新闻乌龙"。
这段话对没做过期权的人来说像天书，我用最通俗的大白话给你翻译一下：
港交所规定，大股东申报的持仓（好仓），不仅包括你真正买到手里的股票（正股），还包括你做多这只股票的期权。
段永平之前买泡泡玛特，用的不是直接在二级市场扫货，而是他最爱用的绝招——卖出看跌期权（Sell Put）。
Sell Put 的本质，就是开保险公司。段永平等于是在跟市场说："我承诺在未来某个日子，以 145 块钱的价格买入泡泡玛特。作为我给出这个承诺的代价，你们现在要先给我一笔权利金（保费）。"
如果在到期日那天，泡泡玛特的股价高于 145 块（比如涨到了 160），那别人肯定不愿意按 145 卖给他。这个时候，段永平的承诺作废，期权到期（put expired），他白赚了那笔权利金，但他并没有买到真实的股票。
但在港交所的系统里，一旦这个期权到期作废了，他申报的"好仓"数字就会自动下降。这就是媒体所谓的"大幅减持"。
实际上呢？他真正持有的泡泡玛特正股（真金白银买在手里的），只卖了不到 0.1%。而且他前几天才刚刚说过，泡泡玛特大概率会拿十年以上。
这件事说明了什么？
第一，永远不要看二手新闻炒股。媒体的小编大概率连期权账户都没开过，根本分不清"好仓下降"和"抛售正股"的区别。
第二，段永平这种级别的大佬，建仓成本和容错率比散户低得多。他可以通过 Sell Put 边收利息边等低价，你直接冲进去买正股，这就是为什么"抄作业"往往抄不到精髓。#闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added
SanDisk's financial report far exceeded expectations, so why did its stock price plunge? The market is not really trading performance
SanDisk's financial report this time would be considered impressive at any time
Quarterly revenue approached $9 billion, a significant year-on-year increase; Earnings per share exceeded $39, far exceeding market expectations; Gross margin has surpassed 84%, with profitability nearly reaching a historic high. Data center business continues to be the largest engine, with revenue growing several times and enterprise-level AI demand remaining strong; The company also successfully turned profitable for the full year, with cash flow continuously improving. At the same time, the company announced an additional $14 billion share repurchase authorization, further injecting management confidence into the market
According to traditional logic, such a performance should correspond to a major surge
However, the reality is completely the opposite
After the earnings report was released, SanDisk's stock price fell about 8% in after-hours trading, and sentiment across the entire storage sector cooled rapidly. Related companies such as Western Digital and SK Hynix were also dragged down
What truly disappointed the market was not the newly announced results, but the future
The company has provided revenue guidance for the next quarter of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion. While growth is still maintained, the median is slightly below Wall Street's previous upward expectations. At the same time, gross margins have begun to show signs of peaking and have not continued to reach new highs. With the market already pushing AI rally to its limit, any signal that falls short of expectations will be infinitely amplified by capital
Ultimately, the stock price has long priced in optimistic expectations for the coming years
When valuation is based on the principle that "surprises must be created every quarter," even if the company delivers excellent results, as long as it is not better than the market imagines, it is enough to justify capital realizing profits
Many investors on the X platform have expressed similar views. Some believe the market is trading expectations rather than earnings, and earnings are delivered as a result; Some joke that nowadays the capital market only accepts "continuously exceeding expectations," and even a slight slowdown in growth will be sold off
Additionally, some investors are concerned about the company's business structure
Currently, enterprise-level AI remains the main source of growth, while consumer-grade storage demand has limited recovery. If the industry's price upward cycle gradually ends and corporate business growth returns to normal, overall profitability may struggle to maintain the current high level, which is also a key reason why some funds choose to exit early
From a technical perspective, some traders have begun to focus on key support near 1200. If this level is later broken, it is possible the market will further seek a lower valuation range, which could lead to genuine value capital intervention
However, in the long run, the company's fundamentals have not fundamentally changed
Long-term supply agreements lock in demand for years to come, enterprise customers continue to expand, AI inference and data center construction continue to drive growth in the high-performance storage market, and the company's pricing power and profitability remain competitive
But now, the market's focus is no longer on "whether the company is good," but on "whether it can outperform already high expectations."
When expectations are too high, even the best financial reports can become positive outcomes; Only when emotions are fully released and valuations return to reasonable ranges will long-term investment value become apparent again
At this stage, rather than rushing to bottom-fish, it is better to patiently wait for the market to complete its emotional correction. When valuations and expectations rematch, those companies that can truly benefit from the AI storage wave may see more worthwhile opportunities
$SNDK A quick news flash, those who understand will get it. Changxin Storage directly rejected Apple's price reduction request, quoting prices in line with Samsung and Hynix — this is more worth pondering than the price increase itself. In the past, the terminal giant (Apple) called the shots, and suppliers could only be squeezed on price; now the storage manufacturer dares to say "no" to Apple, indicating that pricing power is shifting from buyers to sellers. Coupled with memory shortages expected until 2027 and production capacity sold out in advance, this is a solid supply-side narrative. The spillover logic to the crypto world is: the market is re-pricing "hard assets with real supply and demand support," while assets like $BTC , driven purely by narrative, are being neglected in the short term. Let's watch and see if this wave of money eventually flows back into crypto. 闪迪这周彻底坐了一趟过山车，做多做空都被来回收割。
这周玩闪迪的人，心态估计直接被磨麻了，前半段看着要触底起飞，后半段财报一出直接翻脸跳水，连带韩国海力士一起上演一日行情大变脸，整个存储板块情绪来回横跳。
前阵子闪迪从高点腰斩下来，价格卡在1200附近横盘很久，空头力量释放得差不多了。这周开局，韩国海力士突然暴力拉升，单日大涨五个多点，整个韩国半导体板块全线回暖。再加上闪迪刚官宣和海力士、谷歌合作推出AI闪存新品，市场一下子觉得存储周期回暖稳了。
加上美元小幅走弱，跨国科技公司汇兑利润有加持，短线资金一窝蜂冲进来抄底，闪迪直接单日大涨超10个点，价格直接摸到1400上方。那会儿圈子里全是看多的声音，都在赌财报炸裂，趁着行业景气再来一波主升浪。
所有人都在等财报落地敲定上涨趋势，可现实直接给多头浇冷水。财报本身数据其实很漂亮，营收、利润暴涨，公司还拿出百亿资金回购股票，实打实的利好。但资本市场从来不看已经落地的成绩，大家更看重后续预期。
公司给出下个季度的业绩指引比不上机构预想的那么乐观，就这一个小瑕疵，直接触发利好兑现出逃。盘后股价直线跳水，前期追高的短线资金疯狂止盈离场，存储板块集体崩盘。
利空顺着亚太开盘直接传到韩国，前一天大涨的海力士直接暴跌超10%，一天把涨幅全部吐回去，三星跟着大跌，韩国大盘直接被半导体权重带崩，外资疯狂抛售芯片股，形成美股砸盘、日韩跟跌的恶性循环。
回头看这周行情就能发现，闪迪压根没有独立走势，完全跟着海力士盘面、市场预期走。上半年股价翻好几倍，早就把AI存储的利好全部提前炒满了，只要业绩增速没办法持续超预期，稍微一点瑕疵就会引发筹码踩踏。
目前现货闪存价格依旧坚挺，AI服务器的存储需求也实实在在存在，长线基本面没有崩塌，但短线投机氛围已经碎了。靠着日韩板块情绪做短线博弈，风险实在太大，财报指引、现货报价才是决定后续走势的关键。
短期在利空压制下，大概率进入震荡磨底，想要再度强势反弹，必须要有新的行业利好或者大额订单消息刺激，单纯的情绪反弹很难持续。SpaceX stock flow: The key variable behind the superficial adjustment is the gap between the unloading schedule and the actual price. While the market interprets the drop from 130 to 110 as a technical correction, is the price already reflecting the August unloading volume? $SPCX is retesting the 110 resistance level. Based on the original text, it fell from 130 to 110, and clear break-even points have formed across each segment. The key variable is the first unwinding of circulating shares starting tomorrow and the schedule for additional releases on August 6. This is not just a simple positive event, but a structural change where actual soldable shares flow into the market. - Current price: Testing the 110 resistance level, about 15% down from 130 - Release schedule: First circulation starts tomorrow, large-scale additional unwinding planned for August 6 - Position characteristics: Average loss of about 20% for buying above 130, weakening short-term recovery expectations - Market perception: Demand expecting a rebound after correction shifted to a wait-and-see shift After confirming the release schedule. The essence of this decline is more about technical correction than technical adjustment.毫无疑问，黄金突破4200美元历史峰值而比特币未能跟涨，已明确宣告全球资本在“避险资产”定义上出现根本性撕裂。以下是对这一背离现象的量化拆解与后市推演。
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一、BTC为何缺席黄金盛宴？（三大确定性因素）
1. 资产属性已彻底切换：从“数字黄金”沦为“科技杠杆”
2026年的市场实证表明，BTC与纳斯达克100及AI硬件龙头（如$SNDK）的90日相关性已高达0.85，而与黄金的相关性仅剩0.12。当黄金因地缘主权风险冲上4200美元时，市场同步伴随流动性紧缩预期。在此环境下，BTC作为高贝塔风险资产，被机构优先视作“保证金提款机”，而非避险港湾——历史规律已被打破。
2. 央行买盘与ETF流入的动能错位
推动黄金站上4200的核心力量是全球央行（尤以南方国家为主）的物理级去美元化储备需求，这一买盘具有排他性和持续性。反观BTC ETF的增量资金，完全依附于硅谷和华尔街的风险偏好。今日科技板块（$SNDK等）出现大额调仓，直接抽离了科技领域的流动性，BTC自然失去上攻燃料。
3. 实际利率与衰退交易的双重压制
黄金在4200美元定价的是“深度衰退”或“恶性通胀”情景——资金涌入无主权风险的实物资产。而BTC的估值依赖网络扩张和杠杆循环，在衰退预期升温时，市场将其定性为“估值过高的实验性项目”，资金主动净流出成为必然。
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二、背离带来的确定性影响
· “数字黄金”叙事阶段性破产：BTC短期内丧失抗通胀的唯一解释权，宏观基金将被迫调减BTC头寸，转而增持实物黄金或PAXG等黄金代币，加剧BTC抛压。
· 加密内部资金加速涌向RWA板块：黄金强势将直接推高链上黄金代币（$PAXG、$XAUT）的溢价，资金从纯空气币撤离，向有实物支撑的真实资产协议集中。
· BTC新锚点锁定AI算力估值：既然无法再跟随黄金，BTC后续走势将紧盯$NVDA和$SNDK等科技股。只有AI硬件板块企稳反弹，BTC才能获得“科技溢价”而非“避险溢价”的支撑。
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三、后市关键节点与策略
核心观察区间：
· 黄金：若4200美元站稳且10年期美债收益率下行，而BTC依旧无动于衷，则可彻底确认BTC已被剔除出避险资产名单。
· BTC：重点盯防58,500-62,000美元筹码密集区。若有效跌破58,000，则意味着资金全面倒向黄金，中期下行风险打开。
实操策略：
· 多头：放弃一切“BTC补涨黄金”的幻想，严格以$SNDK等科技股走势为操作指引——唯有科技板块流动性回归，BTC方能重启升势。
· 套利：做多$PAXG（黄金代币）同时做空$BTC的配对交易，在8月6日当前环境下，是机构级高胜率策略，可果断执行。
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结论毋庸置疑：黄金重返4200是旧世界防御逻辑的胜利，而BTC的滞涨，恰恰是新科技基础设施在流动性收缩期必须承受的阵痛。此刻绝不应盲目抄底，唯一正确的选择是等待美股AI硬件板块的明确止跌信号。Bitcoin has been repeatedly tugging around the $64,000 level, a trend that has indeed made many holders anxious. Data from a certain institution shows that although long-term holders have migrated their shares, less than one-tenth actually flow into exchanges, indicating that the market has not experienced panic flight. On-chain chip cleanups are underway, but there is still about 30% room to the final bottom structure of historical bear markets, meaning the shakeout is not yet fully finished. US spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about 65,800 $BTC in June, marking the worst monthly record, and the buying power from corporate reserves clearly cannot fully cover this funding gap. With insufficient incremental capital, even if selling power gradually weakens, there is still a lack of fuel to quickly start the market. The volatility compression in the options market is quite noteworthy. Bullish implied volatility has slipped to a historic low of around 23%. Traders are neither betting on a surge nor frantically hedged the plunge. This extreme calm often brews a shift, but without demand-side support, the engine for an upward breakout won't ignite. Currently, the market is still stuck in the $64,000 central range. If volume increases and it holds above $65,000, it could extend toward $67,000 to $68,000. Conversely, if it falls below the $62,000–$63,000 cluster, the probability of pullback to $60,000 increases significantly. ETF capital flows, trading volume changes, and key price gains and losses are the core criteria for judging a true trend reversal, and none of these have given clear answers yet.#意大利大行减IBIT普通股94%，加仓质押ETH 意大利最大银行正在用仓位回答一个关键问题：机构级别的加密配置，已经从“买不买”进入“怎么买更划算”的阶段。
联合圣保罗银行二季度13F文件昨晚出炉，调仓动作非常清晰：IBIT普通股砍了93.7%，从64.68万股降至4.07万股；看涨期权对应股份从250万股缩至1.8万股，降幅99.3%，同时新开50万股看跌期权。
另一边，质押型以太坊ETF（ETHB）从11.62万股加至34.96万股，翻了3倍。Bitwise的Solana质押ETF几乎清仓，从2817股减至7股。
但这不代表它在撤离比特币。ARKB仍持有347万股，价值6760万美元，是其最大加密ETF持仓。XRP信托未动，同时新开了摩根士丹利比特币信托的小仓位。
与其说是“逃离比特币”，不如说是“重新分配”——减持IBIT，换了个更便宜的比特币敞口继续保留。
三个细节值得深挖：
第一，质押收益成为核心驱动力。 比特币ETF只有价格暴露，ETHB能同时吃币价涨幅和质押收益。欧元区利率下行、银行息差收窄的背景下，这点收益差足够让机构动手。
第二，看跌期权不直接等于做空信号。 13F文件不披露完整期权结构和空头敞口，50万股看跌期权可能是领口策略的一部分，也可能是更大波动率交易的一环。不能简单解读为“看空”。
第三，6月底的仓位可能已经变了。 13F最长可在季度结束后45天提交，当时比特币在3万美元以下徘徊，现在已站上6万美元，仓位可能已大幅调整过。
这笔调仓的真正信号在于：当一家管理上万亿资产的银行开始精算“持币生息”与“纯价格波动”之间的账，说明机构加密配置正在从“配不配”进入“怎么配更划算”的阶段。
$BTC $ETH 2026 8.6
山寨币整体行情推演
为何山寨沉默没有上涨情绪
你手里的山寨目前还在拿住吗
作为一名老韭菜我感觉现在市场最大变化：本轮不再是全面普涨的旧山寨季，是结构性分化行情，绝大多数小币很难吃到大行情，只有少数叙事赛道会脉冲走强。
一、山寨币底层运行规律
1. 完全依附大盘，没有独立大牛市
资金顺序：BTC → ETH →中大市值山寨 →小盘题材币（LPT等）→Meme币。
- BTC企稳横盘、ETH跑赢BTC之后，资金才会外溢到山寨；
- BTC一旦转跌，山寨跌幅会远大于主流币，小盘币杀跌最为凶猛；
- 现在BTC主导占比56%附近，还没到山寨大规模爆发的条件（一般要跌到55%以下）。
2. 现在是存量博弈市场
机构资金大多通过ETF配置BTC、ETH，很少流入小山寨；山寨上涨靠存量资金轮动，脉冲快、持续性差，利好落地经常兑现下跌。
3. 币种两极分化加剧
✅能获得资金：有真实业务收入、代币模型健康、赛道叙事强的中盘币种。
❌持续承压：通胀高、无落地、大户筹码集中、只有故事没有营收的小盘币（例如LPT这类DePIN），就算反弹也多是短期炒作，很难走出长期趋势行情。
二、三种情景推演
情景1：乐观情景（山寨局部小行情）
触发条件：BTC站稳65000上方，ETH持续走强，BTC市占率回落，市场增量资金小幅进场。
- 表现：不是全部山寨普涨，板块轮动炒作。RWA、DePIN、AI+区块链轮流脉冲；
- 小盘币特征：短线暴涨，但是上涨周期很短，上涨之后快速回落；
- LPT这类DePIN：会跟随板块出现反弹，但受制于代币通胀、商业化弱，反弹高度有限。
重点：就算乐观，也是结构性行情，大量山寨依旧跑输大盘。
情景2：中性震荡情景（当前最有可能）
BTC维持箱体震荡63000‑65000来回拉锯，没有大级别单边趋势。
- 山寨整体：板块快速轮动，一日游行情居多。今天DePIN涨、明天RWA涨，后天切换AI；
- 小盘山寨：反弹一波就回落，很难走出连续周线级别上涨；
- 操作特征：震荡市假突破极多，流动性差，插针频繁。
情景3：悲观情景（山寨集体承压）
触发条件：BTC有效跌破63000支撑，宏观数据恶化、监管利空。
- 资金避险，抛售顺序：Meme币 →小盘山寨（LPT等）→中盘币种 →ETH→BTC；
- 小盘山寨跌幅会远超BTC，很多币种创新低；
- DePIN、RWA衍生品同步大幅回调。
目前小山寨
1. DePIN（LPT）
赛道叙事还在，但项目商业化收入不足，代币持续通胀。
只有市场炒作AI算力题材的时候才有短线脉冲；大盘走弱的时候，跌幅会大于主流币，很难走出独立行情。
（SPCX、SNDK）
行情绑定美股，不是纯粹加密逻辑。
优点：现实资产叙事；风险：有溢价折价、对手风险，受美股财报、解禁消息冲击巨大，不属于传统山寨币，但波动和小盘币一样剧烈。
四、观察山寨行情的关键信号
1. BTC主导占比（BTC.D）：跌到55%以下，才代表资金开始流向山寨板块；
2. ETH/BTC汇率：ETH持续跑赢BTC，是山寨行情开启前置信号；
3. 成交量：山寨上涨必须放量，无量上涨基本都是诱多反弹；
4. 板块效应：单一币种上涨没用，需要整个赛道集体异动，持续性才会高。
仅个人观点分析 管理好仓位
大家有不同观点的可以交流探讨下
大家稳步前进 一起加油 兄弟们，RESOLV 今天涨了 8.17%，现价 0.01876 美元，从历史最低 0.01427 反弹了 30% 左右。这根阳线背后，是接近收尾的债务赔付，以及刚开启的 RWA 新业务线。 RESOLV 是什么 RESOLV 是 Resolv 协议原生代币。老产品 USR 是 ETH/BTC 超额抵押生息稳定币，依靠 Delta 中性策略赚取质押收益与资金费率；RLP 风险池充当保险层，承担协议风险换取更高收益。项目巅峰 TVL 突破 5 亿美元，拿到 Coinbase Ventures、Arrington Capital 机构投资。 3 月攻击留下的伤疤 2026‑03‑22 攻击者攻破 AWS KMS 基础设施，只用约 20 万 USDC 就铸造出 8000 万无抵押 USR，兑换约 2500 万美元 ETH 出逃，协议直接暂停，USR 大幅脱锚。 TVL 从 5 亿暴跌至不足 1470 万美元，最大回撤 97% RESOLV 从 ATH $0.4108跌到低点$0.01427，跌幅超 95% 协议依旧有约 7800 万美元资不抵债缺口，被盗 2500 万 ETH 至今未追回 恢The total stablecoin market capitalization has dropped to $300.38 billion from an all-time high (ATH) of $322 billion—a decline of 6.8%.
In the previous cycle, the total stablecoin market capitalization fell by 32%, dropping from $185 billion to $124 billion.
Could the stablecoin market cap see such a significant decline this time around? I don't think so; stablecoin adoption has made massive strides since 2023.
The current BTC price is lower than it was when the total stablecoin market capitalization stood at $185 billion.
P.S. DefiLlama shows a 30-day decline of 1.16%. Around this time in July 2023, the stablecoin market capitalization was $311 billion. The figures don't align; either the current market cap should be above $300 billion, or the rate of decline should be greater than 1.16%.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck Oil prices have already priced in the "agreement nearing completion," but BTC remains stuck below $65,000.
Iran and Oman are finalizing a temporary navigation arrangement for the Strait of Hormuz. The discussed plan includes dividing inbound and outbound shipping lanes, with both parties participating in management. The agreement has not yet been officially completed, and Iran has listed the lifting of the U.S. blockade on its ports as one of the conditions.
The market has already preemptively reduced the geopolitical risk premium.
Brent crude is currently around $79.5, and WTI is about $75.3. In the previous trading day, both fell by 5.3% and 5.7%, respectively. The return of oil prices near $80 does not directly impact the crypto space by making "energy cheaper," but rather by simultaneously easing inflationary pressures and reducing the necessity for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly touched around 4.75% this Monday but has since fallen back to about 4.61%, a drop of approximately 14 basis points; the dollar index has also returned to near 99.8. With yields and the dollar cooling off simultaneously, this should theoretically provide a more accommodative valuation environment for BTC.
BTC has indeed attracted capital inflows, but the price reaction remains restrained.
As of 18:18 Beijing time, BTC is around $64,540, with an intraday range of $63,887 to $64,931, less than 1% away from $65,000.
The U.S. spot BTC ETFs have seen net inflows of $170.1 million, $211.5 million, and $244.4 million over the last three trading days, totaling $626 million. At current prices, this equates to about 9,700 BTC, close to 21.5 days of new mining production.
Despite such significant capital inflows, BTC has not made a clear breakout, indicating that selling pressure during the same period is also strong. ETF inflows are currently supporting the price rather than directly triggering a new round of unilateral rally.
The reason is that the navigation agreement primarily improves expectations first; actual supply has not yet resumed. Oil exports from the Gulf region remain about 40% below pre-conflict levels. As long as actual shipping, insurance, and export volumes have not returned to normal, oil prices could reintroduce risk premiums at any negative news.
This also explains why BTC did not immediately take off following the oil price drop. The market is still waiting for the agreement to be signed, actual export recovery, and further confirmation of the interest rate path from U.S. employment data.
Going forward, three numbers can be watched for simultaneous occurrence: Brent consistently stabilizing below $80, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling below 4.6%, and BTC breaking above $65,000 amid continued ETF inflows.
The first two indicate improvements in the macro environment, while the third shows that new capital finally outweighs spot selling pressure.
#伊朗阿曼临时通航协议近落地 $SNDK Brothers, I woke up to find SanDisk plunging 12%. The pre-market article just said "expectations hit the ceiling with no room for error," and it turned out to be a prophecy. The earnings report didn't beat expectations, funds crashed directly, the storage sector collectively flopped, and Western Digital also plunged 12%. But interestingly, in the panic, smart money was quietly picking up chips. Is this hourly price movement a gold trap or a deadly trap? Let's talk a bit.
On the news front, the trigger was earnings guidance falling short of expectations, causing funds to panic and flee. But note, the stock price had already dropped 12.33% before the earnings report, meaning most of the negative news had been priced in. This kind of move is nothing new; if expectations are too high, a surge is triggered first, and waiting for negative news to materialize might actually be less scary. In the short term, oversold is obvious, and bearish sentiment is nearing its peak.
From a technical perspective, looking at the one-hour chart, the MA7 is near 1240 and the MA30 crosses at 1346, indicating short-term bearish alignment. Although the MACD still holds positive at 10.19, after a high death cross between DIF and DEA, it opened downward, showing a rebound with shrinking volume, indicating weak bullish willingness to counterattack. Strong support below is the chip-dense zone between 1200 and 1230, with the first resistance above at the 1300 round number.
Looking at the data, total holdings are 186 million USD, with a long-short ratio slightly higher than 61.37%, which is quite subtle. Among the profitable investors, 489 accounted for 77.91%, with an average opening price of 1329.4 USD. Currently, the unrealized profit is 8.6 million USD. These people are not retail investors, but winners of following the trend. The 576 losing investors have an average cost of 1268.97 USD, totaling only 1.81 million USD, indicating that the cutting losses have not yet been cleared, and there is still short-term selling pressure to digest.
My personal view: The news is negative, but smart money is more bullish and bearish than net money, indicating big money is accumulating shares through panic. However, poor earnings guidance is a major weakness, and short-term volatility is inevitable. At this level, I prefer mostly low bullish positions, but I will definitely not chase the rally. Wait until the pullback reaches the 1200-1230 support zone before considering it, no rush to act. I still hold long positions in options on Bitcoin and Ethereum. For this kind of individual stock gamble, I'll watch the show for now and wait until the gold pit is fully dug. #闪迪财报双超预期, $14 billion new buyback authorization #SanDisk's earnings both beat expectations, adding $14 billion buyback authorization #ADP就业降温, Fed policy divergence #黄金重返4200美元. Why hasn't BTC followed the rise? 【BTC 美盘前更新】非农倒计时：打勾清单 + 三档剧本
一、下午发生了什么（与早帖修正）
指标 早帖预测 实际（截至 18:00–20:00 UTC） 判断
BTC 价格 守 6.4 万 $64,530–64,887，日涨约 0.7–1.2% ✅ 守稳
65,000 阻力 成败看日收 亚盘冲高至 68,044、收于 66,627 一带，卖单墙压在 65,500 ⚠️ 未站稳 6.5 万日线
ETF 情绪 两日 +3.3 亿 8/5 再 +2.44 亿（连续第3日），IBIT 独揽 1.97 亿 ✅ 偏多
修正一句早帖：亚盘那波摸高不是“假突破”那么简单，4 小时内清算了 1.42 亿空单（价格从 64,200 推到 67,100），是空头回补 + 追多共振，量能 22% 高于 30 日均值，不算无量。但日线收口仍卡在 6.5 万，所以“非单边”定性不变。
二、非农前 4 小时「打勾清单」（收藏对照）
北京时间 8/6 20:30–8/7 20:30 之间，盯这 6 条：
• [ ] BTC 日线收稳 65,000 上方（当前第一道坎，没站稳就别谈反转）
• [ ] Coinbase 溢价保持正值（现 +0.015%，美机构是否在接盘的关键信号）
• [ ] 65,500 卖单墙是否被吃掉（破了才算真突破）
• [ ] 恐慌贪婪指数能否脱离 25–27 极端恐惧区（现仍 25–27，价格涨、人心没回）
• [ ] 非农读数：新增就业 + 失业率 + 时薪（核心，见下方三档）
• [ ] CME 加息概率变动（现 9 月加息 25bp 概率约 54–58%，数据后将重定价）
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三、非农三档剧本（提前写好，免得盘中上头）
北京时间 8/7 20:30 公布，预期新增约 8.3–9 万、失业率 4.2→4.3%
• 🟢 鸽派惊喜（新增 < 7 万 + 失业率升）→ 概率约 30%
加息预期降温、美元美债收益率回落 → BTC 大概率放量冲 67,000–70,000，这是早帖“站稳 6.52 万走单边”的触发条件。
• 🟡 基准落地（新增 8–10 万、失业 4.3%）→ 概率约 45%
符合预期、无大波动 → BTC 继续 6.4–6.5 万磨”，等下一份 CPI，最磨人。
• 🔴 鹰派意外（新增 > 10 万 + 时薪 > 0.3%）→ 概率约 25%
强化 9 月加息 → 美元走强、风险资产承压 → BTC 回踩 63,800→62,100（50 日线）。
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四、一个被忽视的暗线（评论区谈资）
• 巨鲸没在砸。8/3 那笔 16,400 BTC（10.4 亿）是冷钱包迁移，未进交易所，属机构换托管，偏多。
• 但币安鲸鱼流入比率飙到 0.52（4 月新高），交易所 5 日净存入 1.4 万 BTC，东方（币安/OKX）在送币、西方（Coinbase）在吸筹，东西方资金撕裂——这种撕裂往往先剧烈震荡、再选方向。
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我现在的立场：非农前不赌方向，65,000 是分水岭——上方站稳看多、下方回 6.4 万就等数据。今晚 20:30 我发一条「非农落地 5 分钟验证帖」，直接对照上面三档剧本判胜负。
评论区押非农读数：
A. 新增 < 7 万（鸽，我冲）
B. 8–10 万（横，我不动）
C. > 10 万（鹰，我减）
$BTC #非农倒计时 #ETF三连流入 #OKX星球 #65K分水岭
⚠️ 免责声明：以上为 8/6 公开盘面/链上/ETF/宏观数据整理与个人结构观察，非投资建议；非农为高波动事件，杠杆易爆仓，请谨慎！#意大利大行减IBIT普通股94%, increased staked ETH
Breaking news: Italy's largest bank, Intesa Sanpaolo, released its Q2 13F filing last night, with some impressive moves—IBIT common shares were cut 93.7%, from 646,800 shares straight to 40,700 shares. The options side was even more aggressive, shrinking the corresponding call option shares from 2.5 million to 18,000 shares, a 99.3% cut, and simultaneously opened a new 500,000 put option.
On the other side, the staking Ethereum ETF (ETHB) increased from 116,200 shares to 349,600 shares, more than tripling. Bitwise's Solana staking ETF was basically cleared out, dropping from 2,817 shares to just 7 shares.
But that doesn't mean it stops watching Bitcoin. ARKB still holds 3.47 million shares, worth $67.6 million, making it its largest crypto ETF position. The XRP Trust hasn't moved, and it even opened a small position in the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust. Rather than "fleeing Bitcoin," it's more like "reallocating"—reducing IBIT holdings while swapping for a cheaper Bitcoin exposure to keep it.
Several points are worth pondering.
First, staking returns are the core driver. Bitcoin ETFs can only profit from price fluctuations, while ETHB can profit from price increases while earning staking returns. In an environment where eurozone interest rates are falling and bank interest spreads are narrowing, this yield spread is indeed attractive.
Second, putting options do not mean you are short on Bitcoin. The 13F file does not disclose short exposure or the full option structure. A 500,000-share put option may be part of a collar strategy or part of a larger volatility trade. It cannot be simply understood as "short."
Third, the position at the end of June may have already changed. 13F can be submitted within up to 45 days after the quarter ends. At that time, Bitcoin hovered below $30,000 for a long time, and now it's over $60,000, so the position may have been adjusted long ago.
The greater significance of this is that traditional financial institutions are answering the question of "Bitcoin or Ethereum" with their actions. It's not a choice between the two, but a refined allocation among different products. When a bank managing trillions in assets starts calculating the balance between "holding coins for interest" and "pure price fluctuations," it shows that institutional-level crypto allocation is shifting from "whether to buy" to "how to buy more cost-effectively." $BTC $ETH 认识五年的顾问给他安排了一场完全虚假的融资
Dow Protocol 今天发了一份声明，把自己这段时间遇上的事摊开讲了一遍。他们说市面上传的那条 OKX Ventures 投资他们的消息，不属实。本周他们准备公布的投资方名单里，压根没有这家机构。
更离谱的在后面。按照团队自己的说法，这件事的起点是一个跟他们相识长达五年的财务顾问。五年，在这个行业里差不多够看完一整轮牛熊。这个人建了一个虚假的群聊，又安排人进来扮演 OKX Ventures 的团队成员。
接下来就是一整套流程。假的尽职调查一步一步走完，该问的问题问了，该给的资料也给了。伪造的投资协议签了字。然后以这笔投资的名义，向项目方收取财务顾问费。
你要是站在项目方的位置上把这个过程再走一遍，会发现每一环单独看都挺正常。介绍人是熟人，五年交情；群里坐着对方团队；尽调一板一眼；协议白纸黑字。这种局最狠的地方不是伪造得多逼真，而是它把你能用来验证的那几个锚点，一次性全换掉了。
这两年这类事其实不算少见。项目方最缺的是钱和背书，头部机构的名字既是钱也是背书，一旦挂上去，后面的估值、谈判、社区情绪全都跟着变。所以专门有人盯着这块做局，被冒充的对象往往就是那几家最有号召力的机构。
要说核验动作，其实一点都不复杂。机构对外的投资一般都有公开渠道，官网、官方账号、公开公告，随便一条都能对得上。真要谨慎点，通过对方公开的官方联系方式重新发起一次确认，成本也就几分钟。问题在于，当介绍人是认识五年的朋友时，你会觉得做这个动作像是在打人家的脸。
Dow Protocol 说他们已经保存了相关证据，也对涉事人员采取了行动。同时提醒其他项目方，哪怕相关人员是由长期合作伙伴介绍的，也应该通过官方渠道独立核验身份和投资信息。这句话看着像客套，其实是拿真金白银换来的。
我一直觉得这个行业里最难防的从来不是技术漏洞。代码可以审计，签名可以验证，多签可以加，硬件钱包可以换。但人情这一层没有审计工具。五年交情换来的信任，在流程上就是一个几乎不会被质疑的入口，谁都不好意思在那里踩一脚刹车。
所以我想问问你们，要是当时坐在那个群里的是你，会在哪一步开始觉得不对劲？还是说，压根就不会往那个方向想？#1/ Midweek Hyperliquid Report
2026-08-06
Hyperliquid's HIP-3 story has crossed from sideshow to main stage: the @tradexyz builder book turned over roughly $5.27Bn in the past 24h against about $3.14Bn across every native HL perp combined, so tokenised equities, memory-chips and commodities now trade more than crypto on the venue. $SNDK alone churned 432% of its $0.18Bn OI on the day, edging $ETH by volume, and the whole turnover leaderboard is @tradexyz names.
(i) Forced flow
(ii) Funding and the algo tape
(iii) HIP-3 builder markets#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck 惊呆了！黄金（Gold）突破$4,200历史高位而BTC未能跟涨，这一现象标志着全球资本在“避险定义”上的深度撕裂。
以下是针对这一背离现象的量化分析与影响展望：
一、 为什么 BTC 没跟涨？（三大核心原因）
1.资产属性的彻底切换：从“数字黄金”回归“科技杠杆”
在2026年的市场逻辑中，BTC与纳斯达克100及$SNDK等 AI 核心硬件的相关性已升至0.85，而与黄金的相关性降至0.12。当黄金因地缘政治风险或主权信用危机飙升至$4,200时，市场往往伴随着流动性收紧预期。作为“高贝塔（High-Beta）风险资产”，BTC在这种环境下会优先被机构当作“提款机”以补充保证金，而非避险港湾。
2.央行购买力与 ETF 动能的错配
推动黄金站上$4,200的主要力量是全球央行（尤其是“南方国家”）的去美元化储备需求，这种需求是物理级且排他性的。相比之下，BTC ETF的流入主要依赖硅谷和华尔街的风险偏好。今日$SNDK等科技股出现大额资金重新站队，导致科技板块流动性偏紧，抑制了BTC的上攻动能。
3.实际利率与“衰退交易”的压制
黄金在$4,200附近交易的是“深度衰退”或“恶性通胀”剧本。若市场预期经济衰退，资金会流向无违约风险的实物黄金；而BTC作为一个依赖网络扩张和资金杠杆的生态，在衰退预期下会被视为“估值过高的实验性资产”，从而出现资金净流出。
二、 这一背离带来的直接影响
1.“数字黄金”叙事的阶段性破产
BTC短期内将失去“抗通胀/避险”的唯一解释权。这会导致部分长线宏观基金（Macro Funds）将仓位从$BTC调回实物黄金或$PAXG（黄金稳定币），进一步压制BTC的价格表现。
2.加密内部资金流向 RWA 板块
由于黄金走势极强，资金会寻找链上的黄金替代品。你会看到$PAXG、$XAUT等黄金挂钩代币的溢价率上升。同时，资金会从纯空气币流向有实物支撑的RWA（真实世界资产）协议。
3.倒逼 BTC 寻找新的价值锚点
既然无法跟随黄金，BTC接下来将更加紧密地锚定AI 算力估值。如果$NVDA或$SNDK在回购刺激下企稳，BTC可能会跟随科技股反弹，形成“科技溢价”而非“避险溢价”。
三、 接下来该怎么走？
*关键观察位：
*黄金：若黄金站稳$4,200且10年期美债收益率下行，BTC仍不涨，则确认BTC已被踢出避险资产名单。
*BTC：关注$58,500 - $62,000区间的换手。如果跌破$58,000，则说明资金正在全面转向黄金。
*配置策略：
*多头：暂时放弃“跟随黄金起飞”的幻想，转而盯盘$SNDK的走势。只有科技股流动性回归，BTC才有机会。
*套利：做多$PAXG（黄金代币）/ 做空$BTC的配对交易在8月6日是胜率极高的机构级策略。
结论：黄金重返$4,200是“旧世界”的防御胜利，而BTC的滞涨是其作为“新世界科技基础设施”在流动性收缩期必然经历的阵痛。此时不应盲目抄底 BTC，而应等待美股 AI 硬件板块的止跌信号。
#黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？ #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？
槽！Circle刚交了份烂到家的财报，数字一塌糊涂，市场却像疯狗一样先舔后咬。
别再盯着那些狗屁营收利润了。总收入加储备金收入才7.01亿美元，同比增长7%，连华尔街预期的7.17亿都没摸到。调整后EBITDA 1.43亿，涨8%。
净利润4821万美元，去年同期亏了4.8亿，这点改善也就是从屎坑里爬出来半截身子。调整后EPS 0.18美元，勉强超预期0.16。USDC期末流通量733亿，同比涨19%，但环比一季度末直接缩了4.8%，市占率掉到27%。
平均流通量倒是创了765亿新高，储备回报率3.5%。链上交易量14.8万亿，同比爆涨151%。稳定币总市值过了3100亿，增速却集体趴窝。
利息收入还在硬撑利润，真正在链上滚的钱却在缩水。营收增长全靠利率环境续命，规模扩张？扯蛋。Circle Payments Network年化交易额147亿，环比涨76%，175家机构接入。Agent Stack付费项目超900个，99.3%的x402代理付款用USDC结算。这些都是边角料。
真正让华尔街重新定价的是Arc。9月16日公共主网上线，超100家机构和建设者已经在私有主网摸鱼。创始验证者名单直接开挂：BlackRock、DTCC、Galaxy、Global Payments、ICE、Mastercard、MoneyGram、SBI Group、渣打、住友商事、Visa。
贝莱德打算把BUIDL基金扔到Arc上，用原生USDC完成认购赎回部署。DTCC计划2027年下半年在这条链做托管资产代币化。全年其他收入指引从1.5-1.7亿直接拉到3.1-3.3亿，主要就靠ARC代币预售确认。联邦信托银行牌照也到手了，OCC和纽约州双许可，合规外壳更硬。
财报一出，股价先盘前疯涨超8%，开盘直接转跌近3%，甚至有人看到10%的砸盘。摩根士丹利直接“减持”，目标价38美元，理由是USDC萎缩和交易收入受压。TD Cowen却给“买入”，目标价82美元。分歧大到能把人脑子拧成麻花。
X上的交易员直接点破：Arc主网9月16日比表面看着猛多了。Circle已经有733亿流通、14.8万亿交易量、151%同比增长、7.01亿收入，现在把这套分发层变成专属金融基础设施。
验证者名单才是真正信号，不是又一条L1在加密推特上乞讨关注，而是有真实支付量、机构关系和监管定位的稳定币发行商，在为结算、代币化资产、FX、支付和代理商业搭桌子。大多数L1先发币再找需求，Arc先有USDC需求再围着它建结算层。
另一个声音更狠：95%的Q2收入来自USDC储备利息。这既是美，也是坑。旧Circle模型超简单——更多USDC等于更多储备等于更多利息。储备收益率同比掉了66个基点到3.5%，期末流通量从77亿缩到73.3亿，平均量还创纪录。依赖太明显了。
但新Circle在猛推四根柱子：Arc、支付网络、Agent Stack、受监管基础设施。ARC代币预售已经进了账，全年其他收入指引翻倍，其中约1.8亿来自预售。转型还没完成，旧业务还在付钱，方向却清楚得要命，从赚躺着的钱，变成赚整个金融网络流动的钱。
还有人骂市场短视：别再吵季度营收了，真正该看的是USDC用在哪。交易量、代币化资产、AI支付、受监管金融基础设施都在复利。稳定币正在变成数字金融的操作系统，不只是数字美元。
Arc上线意味着华尔街正式在链上搭了张新桌子，稳定币结算、代币化资产、机构金融基础设施三条线齐推。这对加密行业是长期利好，但别指望它立刻拯救闪迪这种纯硬件叙事。存储板块还是AI需求和供应紧缺的逻辑，Arc改的是结算层，不是算力层。短期基本面和长期叙事别混着交易，不然亏到哭都没人同情。
短期流通量下降是现实，Arc打开的赛道却比零售市场天花板高几个量级。Circle押的不是季度流通量，是华尔街底层清算系统。
USDC要从交易所散户玩具，变成机构间结算和代币化资产流转的基础货币。这才是真正的增长引擎。能不能兑现？看三个东西：USDC体量持续抬升、支付订阅收入扩大、利润率继续走高。
这几项同步向上，基本面才算真转折。否则就是一堆漂亮PPT和验证者名单，最后还是利息续命的老套路。🚨 EVERYONE IS CELEBRATING.
I'M WATCHING THE TRAP.
$SPCX just posted strong earnings.
Revenue: +92%
AI revenue: +247%
Double beat.
The stock exploded.
Exactly the reaction I expected.
But almost nobody is asking the only question that matters:
Why did it move so violently?
Here's the answer.
Right now, only ~5% of SpaceX shares are actually tradable.
The other 95% are locked.
That's why every wave of buying sends the price flying.
And that's also why this rally could be far more fragile than people think.
On August 6, everything changes.
Around 900 million shares become eligible for trading.
For comparison:
The current tradable float is only ~638 million shares.
Now add another piece of the puzzle.
34% of the float is sold short.
That's a huge reason this rally accelerated.
Shorts were fighting for a tiny supply of shares.
But once the unlock arrives...
That supply shortage starts disappearing.
Shorts suddenly have far more liquidity.
The dynamic that fueled this squeeze changes overnight.
Most people are chasing the earnings headline.
I'm watching what happens after the headlines fade.
That's usually where the real opportunity begins.
Bookmark this post.
Let's see where $SPCX is trading after the unlock.#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck Unitree is about to publicly issue shares and get listed, with the subscription date on August 10, 2026. Rumors online say that one lot can earn 200,000!
HIP-3 decentralized trading platform Trade has launched Unitree Technology (Unitree) pre-IPO perpetual contracts, currently priced at $69, corresponding to a post-listing market value of about $27.9 billion.
Additionally, HYPE has also launched Unitree Technology (Unitree) pre-IPO perpetual contracts, currently priced around $68.8.
The current contract price implies a market value of $27.9 billion, approximately ¥190.6 billion RMB. Unitree's IPO prospectus targets an issuance valuation of about ¥42 billion RMB (approximately $5.8-6.2 billion), expecting a 4.5x return on new shares after the opening.
Last time, Changxin's short selling attempt failed. This time, however, I noticed the shorting willingness is very strong, causing account funding fees to exceed contract losses. So, shorting this time must be done cautiously. Circulation is about 10%, with high control again, and retail investors will likely be forced to take the shares. It's still better to wait until before the large share unlock period to short.How to put it, brothers are adorable $SNDK
SanDisk's revenge tonight! Short it down to 1200!
Let it be arrogant and beat me back and forth yesterday!
Looking at this pre-market trend, it's impossible to break 1200 tonight
Moreover!
Tonight, it is highly likely to continue last night's decline
Some people are still complaining about performance, which has nothing to do with actual results
This is because next quarter's revenue guidance fell short of expectations
Gross margin guidance declined
Additionally, the departure of Google's tech executives directly boosted the sector
Although there is positive news about $14 billion in buybacks,
However, the overall sentiment in the storage sector is very negative and under heavy pressure
So the opening is upward, topping before continuing to fall......
Then you must short it below 1200!
Let me go first to the warehouse, then raise the price and add a round.
Wishing the Empty Sandiskers a bountiful tonight!
#闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added $SPCX
Tonight, $SPCX is experiencing the first wave of large-scale unbans
Early employees and pre-IPO investors can finally sell tonight
About 912 million shares will be unlocked tonight,
This is 1.4 times the approximately 639 million shares publicly outstanding at the time of the IPO.
The circulating market doubled overnight.
Is it possible that the stock price will fall below 100 tonight? On the 21st of this month, another 915 million shares will be unlocked.
If it falls below 100 tonight, plus another unlocking on the 21st, the market is very likely to experience panic sell-offs.
If it really drops, I'll consider selling puts.
If the stock price at expiration is higher than the strike price, the option becomes void and you can pocket the premium money.
If panic sell-offs occur, you can still collect chips with blood.Gold falls below the $5,600 altar: As US Treasury yields approach 4.7%, even the safe-haven aura must step aside
In January this year, gold prices surged to a historic peak of $5,600 per ounce amid various geopolitical conflicts, leading everyone to believe gold would become the ultimate safe haven in the era of fiat currency collapse. However, by early August, gold had already fallen amid volatility and was stuck in a narrow range between $4,000 and $4,100. Meanwhile, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note steadily rose at a high of 4.6% to 4.7%. These two seemingly unrelated price figures hide a cold financial common sense: when risk-free U.S. Treasuries can offer an annualized yield close to 4.7%, gold that generates no interest becomes extremely expensive at the opportunity cost of holding.
Gold's safe-haven nature is not an unconditional iron law; its core historical pricing logic is actually the reflection of "real interest rates."
Simply put, the real interest rate equals the nominal interest rate minus inflation expectations. Earlier this year, as concerns over high inflation and bets on global liquidity easing led to extremely low real interest rates, gold premiums were pushed higher. But in the second half of the year, the situation reversed: Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh made multiple hawkish remarks, and the market began pricing in expectations of possible rate hikes, pushing nominal U.S. Treasury yields to a high of 4.7%, while suppressing inflation expectations. Under this squeeze, real interest rates rose sharply, directly draining long liquidity from the gold market. For large funds, ignoring the 4.7% risk-free U.S. Treasury interest and holding onto high-priced, interest-free gold is irrational in asset allocation. I myself have fallen into similar traps in large-swing gold trading, rushing in blindly at the gunfire of geopolitics while ignoring the invisible giant of government bond yields. When yields rise, geopolitical risk aversion premiums evaporate instantly like water.
Of course, my current bearish logic of real interest rates suppressing gold may also fail due to some extreme variables.
If the geopolitical situation in the Middle East or Eurasia escalates uncontrollably and dramatically, or if in October the financial system exposes certain hidden bad debt issues, global central banks launch a new wave of gold buying at any cost, then risk aversion will once again overpower valuation models based on real interest rates, and gold will regain upward momentum. For the next two months, I will closely watch the battle to defend the $4,000 mark. If gold is broken through the $4,000 level with increased volume, I will firmly maintain the view of a medium-term correction for gold; If I can hold up here with reduced volume and then peak and retreat as U.S. Treasury yields peak, I will consider rebuilding long-term positions.闪迪财报炸裂，盘后却跌8%——又是“预期差”的锅
---
单看营收、利润、收益，任何一项拿出来都是炸裂级别。
但盘后一度跌了8%。
问题出在指引上。
闪迪给出的下季度营收指引是 103~108亿美元，中值105.5亿。而分析师预期是 111.6亿——差了整整6个亿。
又是“指引不及预期”的老剧本。前几天Palantir刚演过，闪迪又来一遍。
市场现在的逻辑很直白：当季数字只是入场券，指引才定价。你过去三个月赚了89亿不重要，重要的是你说接下来能赚多少。
业绩好是应该的，不够好就是你的错。闪迪没做错什么，只是市场预期跑得太快了。上一次财报把天花板顶得太高，这次哪怕只差一点点，也不认账。
那百亿级回购呢？市场也没当回事。
以前回购=利好，现在回购可能被解读成“公司也觉得股价不太行”。在“预期差主导一切”的环境里，再大的回购额度也扛不住一个“略低于预期”的指引。
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但长期逻辑没破：
· AI推理规模还在扩大，客户订单锁定未来四年
· HBF标准刚发布，闪迪是主导方之一
· 全球NAND市场预计2027年近5000亿美元
这些都是大趋势，不是一季财报能改变的。
---
说到底：
闪迪交了一份炸裂的财报，但市场想要的是一份更炸裂的指引。
股价跌了，是市场在说：“你很好，但我想听你说未来更好，你没说够。”
短期情绪消化完，该涨的还是会涨。
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你怎么看？是机会还是风险？评论区聊聊👇
#SNDK #闪迪 #财报解读 #AI存储 #美股
$SNDKU.S. stocks were mixed pre-market, with the S&P 500 +0.1% and Nasdaq -0.6% amid tech stock weakness, as investors awaited a U.S.-Iran peace deal and Friday’s jobs data. Brent crude rose 1% to $80/bbl; gold gained. Notable movers included $SKHY -6%, $MU -4%, and $SPCX +2% ahead of lockup expiration. $GOOG and $META have now recovered all of their earnings-related losses. Bloomberg has reported that President Trump has maintained unprecedented frequent contact with Fed Chair Warsh since his Senate confirmation. S&P 2026 EPS estimates have risen to $347 (+26% YoY), implying a 22.3x P/E, putting the S&P 500 forward earnings yield below the 10-yr treasury yield for the first time since early-2024 and before that the 2000 dot-com bubble. I remain cautious on Tesla due to declining earnings estimates, the likely commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and a seemingly excessive valuation. For more detail, see my daily pre-mkt summary for Subscribers.#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck #特朗普代币遭参议员要求调查
That Trump meme coin has run into trouble again.
Senators Warren and Blumenthal officially sent a letter to SEC Chairman Atkins on Monday, requesting an investigation into whether the TRUMP token involved fraud or unjust enrichment, directly labeling it as "potentially an illegal scam" and even using the term "Rug Pull."
According to Nansen data, as of the end of June, about 989,000 accounts holding TRUMP tokens were at a loss, accounting for two-thirds of all buyers, with a cumulative loss of $3.81 billion. The coin has dropped from a peak of $73.43 to $1.47 now, with its market cap shrinking from $9 billion to less than $400 million.
Trump's 2025 financial disclosures show he will earn about $636 million in revenue from this meme coin business. Of the 980,000 people, the total loss is $3.8 billion, and he alone made $636 million.
The impact of this incident on the crypto world can be divided into three layers.
First, regulatory risks in the meme coin sector have been reignited. The SEC just issued guidance in February this year stating that meme coins are generally not securities, and Warren's letter is challenging that boundary. If the SEC really files an investigation, the entire meme coin sector will be re-examined. If it drops without resolution, it means politicians can freely issue tokens to harvest retail investors, which is far more serious than the TRUMP token itself.
Second, the CLARITY bill is even more complex. Warren's timing is no coincidence; the bill negotiations are stuck on an ethical clause—banning senior government officials from directly participating in crypto projects. Trump is a meme coin that the Democrats use as bargaining chips. If the bill is delayed because of this, it would be a loss for the entire crypto industry.
The third layer is that politicians issuing coins will inevitably be liquidated sooner or later. This is either today or tomorrow. It's either the SEC or Congress. 980,000 people lost 3.8 billion; someone has to give an explanation.
My view is clear—the SEC will delay, but Congress will not.
The SEC currently declines to comment, and the White House has shifted the blame to the Trump Organization. The SEC is unlikely to step in proactively, but will wait until Congress is under sufficient pressure before making a decision. But Senate Democrats have already played their cards; this matter will not end here. After Trump leaves office, related investigations will only increase.
Trump himself responded in July, saying, "I don't get involved in personal finances, there are funds managing my money," then 636 million went into his pocket and then said, "I'm not sure." How long this statement can hold out remains to be seen. The letter itself won't immediately bring regulatory results, but it is a clear signal—the meme coin's unconventional tactics are running out.
$BICO $SNDK $BTC #SandiskBeatAndBuyback Sandisk beat expectations, announced another $14B buyback… and still fell after hours 😅
Q4 revenue hit $8.97B with adjusted EPS of $39.25, but softer Q1 guidance spoiled the party. Classic market behavior: yesterday’s beat matters less than tomorrow’s outlook 📉
AI storage demand clearly isn’t the problem anymore. Now it’s all about whether NAND pricing and high-bandwidth flash demand can justify the valuation.
Big buyback, cautious guidance — which signal are you trusting more? 👀#ADPCoolsFedSplit #ADPCoolsFedSplit #SandiskBeatAndBuyback SNDK | Perfect scores on financial reports, but stock prices ask: Are there any bonus questions?
Last night, SNDK delivered an impressive report card: quarterly revenue was about $8.97 billion, a year-over-year increase of 372%. But the stock price did not soar immediately after hours; instead, it was pulled back and forth. Before the financial report, I tried a small Duoluo transaction. At first, the floating profit was quite good, but I didn't take profits in time, and in the end, I only took the money of a cup of coffee. The market is clearly not satisfied with "good performance" but is asking whether it can continue to exceed expectations next quarter.
Fundamentally, AI servers are driving up NAND demand; SanDisk and SK Hynix have also released the HBF open standard, with a maximum capacity of 512GB and bandwidth up to 3TB/s, aiming to capture the new position between HBM and SSD. However, the stock price had risen significantly earlier; valuation, profit realization, and future guidance are the real battleground for bulls and bears today.
My strategy is to closely monitor the highs and lows after the earnings report: follow after breaking the high, exit if it breaks the low, and avoid repeatedly charging fees with the main players in the middle area. Do you think SNDK is selling off on positive news, or is it gearing up for the next AI storage rally? $SNDK $BTC
#SNDK #闪迪 #AI存储 #美股不构成投资建议.The market was very quiet today, so quiet it felt almost unreal. BTC kept hovering above 64,000, closing near 64,600. It rose slightly intraday, ETH stood above the 1900 level. Most mainstream stocks saw slight broad gains, no sharp rallies or plunge. It's that kind of calm sideways movement that makes people feel uneasy. Why is it so weak? Because everyone is waiting for Friday's nonfarm payrolls. The expectation is only 75,000 new USD, and the unemployment rate may rise to 4.3. At the last meeting, three Fed chairs directly advocated for rate hikes, the most hawkish since the 2022 round. To put it plainly, The money that was betting too much on rate cuts before has quietly started to take a hit this week. The market's sideways movement isn't without direction; it's because no one dares to speak before the data comes out. It's like sitting together on a blind date without ordering food for half a day, waiting for the other person to speak first. But one thing hasn't stopped: the infusion of funds from ETFs. On August 4, spot Bitcoin ETFs bought another $211 million, while BlackRock alone took 170 million. This is the first time since May that BTC has broken 200 million BTC in a single day. The steady 64,000 BTC is not due to buying hype, but because of the institutional blood supply So, today's market summary can be summed up in one sentence: sentiment is waiting, funds are entering the market, two forces are tug-of-war, neither has won. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the real test is Friday in the non-farm payrolls. If the data is unexpectedly strong and rate hike expectations heat up, crypto is a risk asset prone to short-term misexecution; if the data is weak, rate cut expectations return, and a rebound is imminent. This is a binary gamble—don't be clever and blindly bet on direction$BEAT 跌了很多啊。 这个币我很早之前就想写了，但是最近在忙着交易其他的币，就没有什么心思去分析这个了。 今天看它跌下去了，我在想能不能有机会去抄底。 但是令人可惜。 我翻来覆去看了好多遍，我觉得现在进去做多风险太大。 —————————————————— 我们看一下它的合约数据。 可以发现，从12点开始，它的合约持仓量就一直在上涨。 但是，它的合约多空比并不是这么变化的。 它的合约多空比呈现出一个先下降后上涨的过程。 而此时此刻，它的合约多空比是比一开始低的。 我个人推断，在目前的这个位置，有一部分多头进去抄底，还有一部分空头在止盈。 但是，这批抄底的多头并没有剩下的多头实力强。 也就是说，现在的反弹很有可能只是在半山腰处的诱多。 我现在不敢进去多它。 —————————————————— 对我来说，$BEAT 现在的方向是不明确的。 如果方向不明确就去做，那非常有可能被多空双杀。 我为什么这么讲呢？ 我不知道大家有没有这种经历。 做一个币，一开始认为是上涨，然后就去做多，结果它却下跌了很多，这时候开始怀疑自己，然后开始追空，结果它又拉上来了。 我以前常常会做出这种事情。 所以我#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
每天复盘亏损单第八天
🚨炸裂！闪迪财报双超预期🔥豪掷140亿美元回购，为何股价反而跳水？
📊核心财报数据📈
▪️Q4营收：89.7亿美元，同比暴涨372%✅
▪️毛利率：84.6%，创下历史新高💎
▪️新增回购授权：140亿美元，剩余总回购额度达155亿美元💰
▪️数据中心业务同比暴增1298%，AI存储成为增长引擎⚡
昨夜存储龙头闪迪交出一份远超华尔街预期的成绩单，营收、利润双双大幅跑赢市场预测，同时董事会大手一挥，新增140亿美元股票回购计划，用真金白银向市场传递信心。
回购意味着公司手握海量现金流，未来会在二级市场持续买回自家股票，减少流通股本，增厚每股收益，对中长期股价形成强力托底，上一个季度闪迪已经完成45亿美元的回购操作 。
而且公司手握8份长期供货协议，保底收入939亿美元，大半产能已经被云厂商提前锁单，极大削弱存储行业周期波动风险 。
但魔幻一幕上演：利好落地，盘后股价反而大跌接近8%📉。
核心矛盾不在已经落地的辉煌业绩，而在未来的增长指引。公司给出的下一季度营收、EPS指引略低于市场狂热的期待值。
资本市场买的是未来增速，哪怕过去业绩再炸裂，只要后续增长不及想象，资金就会选择获利了结，上演经典的“买预期，卖事实”行情 。
💡行情思考：
巨额回购属于中长期缓冲垫，可以抑制非理性暴跌，但无法强行扭转短期下跌趋势。AI存储大周期逻辑没有被破坏，但市场已经从无脑看多，进入高预期校验阶段。
短期要看资金情绪博弈，长期要看NAND芯片价格、AI服务器真实需求能不能持续超预期。
业绩爆表叠加百亿回购，你觉得闪迪这次是机会还是陷阱？$BTC 企稳64000美元上方，核心矛盾在于周线RSI在39.30附近的看涨背离与3月以来头肩顶右肩量能枯竭之间的博弈。
现货价格在60965美元至66885美元区间维持宽幅震荡，8月5日1.91%的涨幅确立了短期企稳态势。61900美元作为区间下沿支撑了防线，若失守则意味着震荡结构破坏，下行支撑位将下移至54000美元。
驱动力层面，8月4日现货ETF录得超1.7亿美元净流入，其中贝莱德IBIT贡献1.1143亿美元，缓解了现货抛压。然而参议院法案阻力、SpaceX解禁带来的美股波动态势，以及Coldcard黑客攻击导致的1755枚比特币失窃事件，共同构成了上行阻力。
多头剧本的触发条件是价格有效站稳64000美元并向66885美元推进。需要观察ETF净流入能否维持在亿级规模以上以弥补反弹量能萎缩。当价格跌破61900美元支撑位时，看涨推演宣告失效。
空头剧本的触发条件是美联储加息预期与美股波动溢出效应叠加，导致价格跌破61900美元。观察变量为自托管安全焦虑是否加速卖盘放量。若价格强行突破并站稳66885美元，空头剧本即刻失效。
震荡剧本维持在60965美元至66885美元箱体之内，反映出机构买盘与8月季节性疲弱效应的博弈平衡。在此区间内，周线RSI背离将持续提供企稳信号，但无法独立推动趋势性突破。
未来7天最关键的观察变量是现货ETF的日均净流入额能否维持，以及价格能否在61900美元关键支撑位上方完成筹码沉淀。
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #特朗普代币遭参议员要求调查 #内存卖方市场延续，韩股能否迎来反转？#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
K-line, K-line, K-line—I'll say this three times about important things.
It's a bullish candlestick with a long body, a short shadow, and a closing price holding high without falling down. I don't really believe in anything else. Anyone would say that once the Golden Fork or Death Fork emerged, it was all just speculation. Candlesticks are built with money, and you can't fool anyone.
What counts as good? Several points:
· The body is long, the shadow is short. This shows the bulls are genuine, not just a quick move and a run.
· The closing price held steady. Some bullish candles look fierce but are halfway down at the close; avoid those early on, as they will likely soften the next day.
· The position must be correct. After a few months of sideways trading, a single bullish candlestick directly kicks out the upper boundary—this is the kind I'm most willing to follow.
I used to have a common mistake—when a bullish candlestick appeared, I always felt like I was "waiting for a pullback to step in before entering," but as soon as I waited, I watched it keep pulling up, never coming back. Later, I changed my rule: when a big bullish candlestick breaks through a key level, get in first, and set stop-loss below the bullish candle; even if you lose, you won't lose much.
Of course, there were times when he got hit, but overall, the gains outweighed the losses, which was enough. What do you watch when you see trend starts? Share your thoughts in the comments. 👇 Circle利好消息：
刚刚官宣，贝莱德、万事达卡、Visa、渣打银行等一众传统金融机构正式加入它自家的Arc区块链，担任创始验证节点。
公共主网定在9月16日上线，定位很明确：专门为稳定币和代币化资产服务。
这不是普通的“又多几家机构站台”。验证节点直接参与网络安全和治理，等于这些巨头把自家信誉和运营能力押到了这条链上。
贝莱德还计划把BUIDL基金部署上去，用原生USDC完成申购赎回，尽量把机构资金的进出摩擦降到最低。
真正值得关注的，是$CRCL 在用“机构自己当验证者”的方式，把传统金融的合规和信任要求直接嵌进区块链底层。
过去很多公链靠匿名节点或单纯代币激励，机构总觉得不放心；
Arc这次把黑石、Visa、渣打这些名字拉进来一起守门，等于在降低机构入场的心理门槛。
稳定币和RWA的竞争，已经从“谁发币多”转向“谁能真正把传统大资金接进来”。
链本身只是基础设施，真正决定胜负的，是谁能让机构愿意把钱放上去、把业务流程搬上去。
短期炒作可能有，但长期看，能留下来的一定是那些真正降低了机构使用成本的网络。
一句话总结：机构愿意亲自当验证者，说明他们已经不只是旁观者，而是开始把这条链当成自己的结算层来用了。