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Currently, $TRUMP is about $2.39, with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $560 million and a circulating market cap of approximately $627 million. The trading looks lively, but the price has retraced about 97% from the all-time high of $73.43 set in January 2025. What's more troublesome is that the supply pressure isn't over yet. On September 18, about 28.69 million TRUMP tokens will be unlocked, accounting for 2.9% of the total supply, valued at around $68 million, and all these tokens belong to insiders. Recently, the market has also been watching wallets related to the Trump team, with about $26.65 million worth of SOL already transferred. Coupled with the upcoming unlock, this has somewhat raised caution among investors. So $TRUMP is in a bit of an awkward position now: the trading volume is shockingly high, yet the price is still stuck below its historical peak; on one hand, it has Trump as the biggest traffic source, but on the other, it faces ongoing unlocks and team wallet movements. The biggest risk for this coin isn't that no one is trading it, but that everyone is waiting for someone else to take the last baton.After the US non-farm payrolls data was released last night, the US stock market showed a very divided performance.
August non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, while the market had originally only expected 56,000, nearly three times the forecast. Once the data came out, US Treasury bonds immediately reacted, with the 10-year yield surging back to 4.8%, and market expectations for a September rate hike also rose.
Normally, this environment is definitely unfavorable for tech stocks, so last night the S&P fell 0.38%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.29%, and the Dow Jones declined 0.51%. However, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose more than 3% last night, with the entire storage, semiconductor equipment, and AI hardware sectors strengthening against the trend. What has really been weighing on tech stocks these days are oil prices and US Treasury yields. Oil prices remain above $90, the 10-year Treasury yield has returned to 4.8%, and with such strong non-farm payrolls, the market naturally worries that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates.
Additionally, US markets were closed on Monday for Labor Day, so the next opening is Tuesday. Next week, the real focus will no longer be on non-farm payrolls, but on CPI and PPI. The key will be whether inflation provides the Federal Reserve with a reason to continue raising rates.🚨 Nonfarm Night! 162,000 vs Expected 55,000, Rate Hike Repricing
Beijing Time September 4, 20:30, US August Nonfarm triple market expectations:
📊 New jobs 162,000 (expected about 55,000), strongest since March
📊 Unemployment rate steady at 4.1%; hourly wages +0.3% month-over-month, +3.1% year-over-year
📊 June and July combined revised up by 55,000, "employment cooling" narrative overturned
🔁 Market immediately reprices: September rate hike probability rises from about 50% to 58.4%-60.2% (CME FedWatch, as of September 5); 2-year US Treasury yield +7.6bp, US dollar index +0.3%
💡 Transmission logic: strong employment → Fed focuses on inflation → financial conditions tighten → non-interest assets under pressure
👀 Next up: September 10 PPI, September 11 CPI, September 16 FOMC — CPI is the decisive variable
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
#Robinhood链上收入创高，资金却转为净流出 $CRDO US Stock AI Leader】CRDO crashed from $308 to $170, is it a golden opportunity or a bottomless pit?
Brothers, many have been asking about the stock (CRDO) recently. From the high of $308, it dropped all the way back to around $170, nearly a 40% pullback, which has trapped many who bought at the top. Today, I'll analyze it for you,
Outstanding performance, so why did the stock price plummet?
Revenue in the financial report grew over 114% year-over-year, and EPS also exceeded expectations, but this sell-off is essentially buying on expectations and selling on facts. Before the earnings report, the stock price had priced in too much expectation; after the good news was realized, funds took the opportunity to cash out. Coupled with recent hawkish macro interest rate expectations, high Beta tech stocks were the first to be squeezed out.
Is the core fundamental bad?
Not at all! CRDO is the absolute essential leader in high-speed interconnects for data centers (AEC active copper cables, optical chips). As Nvidia and major cloud giants continue to stack computing power, the communication transmission bottleneck between servers becomes even more prominent. Its industry prosperity and performance growth remain strong, and Wall Street institutions still anchor their target price around $280.
Operation advice: Avoid blindly leveraging on the left side: The first phase after a sharp drop usually comes with intense volatility, and blindly opening high-leverage long positions can easily get stopped out by intraday shakeouts.
Currently, focus on the support line around $158 - $160. If it can complete a low-volume consolidation or form a bullish divergence in this area, it will be a very cost-effective opportunity for phased buying For $BTC, this is the most important signal to watch in the past two months.
First, what is this? The red line is STH-MVRV, the short-term holders' unrealized profit multiple; 1 is the cost line, and 1.15 means an average profit of 15%. The blue line is its own 155-day moving average. When the red line is above the blue line, the area below is filled green; when reversed, it is filled red.
So this green area is not about valuation, it’s about momentum. It only answers one question: Is the situation of this batch of new money getting better or worse?
In June, STH-MVRV was 0.84, meaning new entrants were on average losing 16%, with no green area at all. Now the red line has crossed above the blue line, and the green area is the thickest this year.
I acknowledge this signal; directionally, it stands on my side, but two things must be said together.
First, the red line has now surged to around 1.15, and Glassnode’s old experience is that once this number exceeds 1.2 to 1.4, the risk of profit-taking rises significantly. The green is green, but it’s not far from the upper edge of the comfort zone.
Second, from August 18 to 28, the 30-day distribution volume of long-term holders rose from 174,500 to 281,900 coins, while LTH-MVRV increased from 1.31 to 1.64. New money is making profits, old money is selling, and the sellers are targeting this batch of new money.
The green area tells you "the trend is moving this way," not "buying at this price now won’t get you stuck."
The cost of confusion between these two things is usually paid by those who chase in.Waller's statement yesterday gave the market a strong boost.
On September 3rd, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that if inflation continues to cool down, he tends to keep interest rates unchanged in September.
The market immediately repriced, with the expectation of a rate hike in September falling from over 60% to nearly 50%. BTC surged from around $77,000 to $81,000–$82,000, hitting a new high since May. Gold also rose more than 2% that day.
This is actually more worth watching than just "BTC went up again."
Because recently, the market is trading on more than just risk appetite.
It's another logic:
Will the US dollar continue to weaken? Will its real purchasing power be diluted? Is capital searching again for assets that do not rely on a single fiat currency system?
Gold fits this logic.
BTC is increasingly fitting it too.
So this round of the market is quite interesting.
Previously, BTC was more like a tech stock: it rose with good liquidity and was the first to run when risk appeared.
Now it starts to trade the "currency depreciation" story together with gold.
Of course, don't rush to call it digital gold.
The real test will be when the next macro pressure comes: can BTC still stand with gold?
Or will it still be the first to be sold when the market tightens?
$BTC $ETH #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 As soon as Waller spoke yesterday, BTC surged directly.
On September 3rd, Waller stated that if inflation continues to decline, he leans towards no rate hike in September.
The market immediately changed its script.
Originally, more than 60% expected a rate hike, but this quickly dropped to about 50%. BTC surged from around $77,000 to $81,000, even touching $82,000 intraday. Gold also rose accordingly.
Looking at BTC now, it’s quite interesting.
People used to treat it as a risk asset.
When the Nasdaq rose, it followed.
When liquidity tightened, it got hit.
But now the market is starting to apply another logic to BTC:
What if the dollar depreciates?
What if debt keeps increasing?
What if purchasing power declines?
Gold is one of the answers.
BTC is also being included in this answer.
So this rally, on the surface, looks like Waller’s dovish signal.
But looking deeper, the market is trading on whether "money will become less valuable."
But don’t get too excited here.
Because after the stronger-than-expected US employment data was released on September 4th, the market raised rate hike expectations again, and BTC briefly fell back below $80,000.
This is the most realistic aspect of the macro market.
Yesterday you could trade rate cut expectations.
Today you can trade rate hike expectations.
So what’s really worth watching is never just one sentence from Waller.
It’s whether gold and BTC can continue to stand on the same macro logic.
$BTC $ETH $XAU #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 Nonfarm Payroll Night, Why Did Trump "Go Against the Trend" and Call for a Rate Cut?
On September 4th, August's nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, far exceeding expectations. The CME's rate hike probability jumped to 60%, with bond market dollar rising and gold falling. One and a half hours after the data release, Trump posted on Truth Social: first praising the data as "breaking expectations," then abruptly shifting tone—"Cut rates, or I will stop doing business with all countries that have a trade surplus with the U.S." He directly addressed Fed Chair Powell: "Be a patriot."
Economics 101 teaches us strong employment → inflation → rate hikes, but Trump's logic is: "A strong country means lower interest rates."
As a trader, I see two signals: First, politics openly challenging monetary independence—Powell just emphasized last week that "we should not yield to political pressure," and a week later the president is pressuring, with this timing 11 days before the FOMC suggesting a direct confrontation between the White House and the Fed. Second, the call reveals Trump's anxiety—the stronger the nonfarm data, the stronger the rate hike expectations, the greater the impact on the economy and stock market. He uses trade war threats against the Fed, essentially saying "No matter how good the data is, I want rate cuts."
For traders, the source of short-term volatility has shifted from "the data itself" to the "politics vs central bank" struggle. The rate hike card is in the Fed's hand, but Trump's trade war card could overturn the entire situation at any time. In the next 11 days, any new statement from either side could have a far greater impact than the nonfarm data itself. $BTC $SNDK #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 The mid-year report of Invesco Great Wall Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted ETF Link finally reveals why this fund is trading at a 24% premium and still being snapped up crazily?
Because it doesn't track the ordinary Nasdaq 100!
The Nasdaq 100 mixes in impure "tech stocks" like Amazon, Meta, and Tesla (they are classified under consumer and communication).
But this index only keeps hardcore tech: Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Broadcom, Micron — a pure AI computing power hub.
Single stock cap is 15%, and the top five total weight does not exceed 60%, preventing giants from crowding too much.
With no quota left for off-exchange, if you want to buy, you have to compete on-exchange, so the premium is driven sky-high. What you are buying is pure computing power. I wonder if any big players have made money with this fund.
The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
DYOR.When the non-farm payroll data came out last night, I was completely stunned.
The market had previously expected only 56,000, but the actual release soared directly to 162,000, the highest in three months! Moreover, July's data was revised upward by 44,000, pulled from negative to positive, contradicting expectations for two consecutive months. The job market shows no sign of cooling down.
The market reaction was lightning fast. Gold $XAU instantly dropped $70, silver followed with a $1.5 decline, and the US dollar index surged 34 points.
The worst hit was the crypto market, with $BTC plunging from 81,600 and $ETH falling below 2,450. Several of my friends who were long positions liquidated on the spot, causing a wave of distress.
My biggest concern now is the CPI on September 11. Waller recently said, "CPI decides everything," but the non-farm payrolls exploded first. If CPI also exceeds expectations, a rate hike in September is almost certain.
However, the RSI has already dropped to 12.5, indicating severe short-term overselling, so a technical rebound might occur.
But personally, I think before the CPI release, don't rush to chase any rebound; it might just be a bull trap. The job market is much stronger than we thought.
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
#OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 Trump has started ramping up pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again, threatening that if the Fed doesn't cut rates, he will cut off trade with countries that have a trade deficit with the U.S.
In fact, Trump and Powell want completely different things right now. Trump wants growth and cheap money; with lower interest rates, government borrowing is cheaper, corporate financing is cheaper, and the U.S. stock market and economy are more likely to rise. Powell wants to protect the purchasing power of the dollar and the Fed's credibility. The more aggressively Trump demands rate cuts, the less Powell can easily give in, otherwise the market will really start to doubt the Fed's independence.
The most awkward part is that while Trump is pushing for rate cuts, he is also waging a trade war and taking military action against Iran. Tariffs may push up commodity prices, and the war has kept oil prices above $90, which means Trump is verbally urging Powell to cut rates while his own actions are continuously making it harder for Powell to do so.
Therefore, the importance of the CPI on September 11 has been maximized. Bloomberg expects overall CPI year-over-year at 3.4%, and core CPI year-over-year at 2.4%. If core inflation continues to cool significantly, the Fed still has reason to treat high oil prices as a supply shock and wait in September; if CPI again exceeds expectations, combined with strong nonfarm payrolls and high oil prices, a rate hike in September becomes increasingly justified, and the market may even start trading a second rate hike in December directly.In August, the US added 162,000 non-farm jobs, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. After the data was released, BTC briefly fell below $80,000, and now it’s fluctuating around $79,600.
The screen clearly shows the same data, yet three different news stories quickly appeared in accounts.
The bulls say: Employment is so strong, the economy is fine, BTC can hold up.
The bears say: Employment is so strong, rate hike expectations are heating up, liquidity will tighten.
Those trapped say: Wait a bit longer, the market hasn’t understood my logic yet.
Many people aren’t interpreting the non-farm data; they’re asking the data to testify for their positions. The data is objective, but the interpretation is very considerate: whatever position you hold, it just so happens to support that direction.
The real danger isn’t getting it wrong once, but rewriting every new piece of news into a reason "not to stop loss." When positions are light, we study probabilities; when positions are heavy, we start hoping for miracles.
This non-farm data did indeed heat up the rate discussion, but it’s not the final verdict for the September decision. There’s still CPI on September 11, and the FOMC meeting on September 15-16. The market will first trade sentiment, then expectations, and finally the actual capital choices after policy implementation.
I only remind myself of three things:
First, one piece of data can only change probabilities, not declare the future.
Second, if new news only makes me want to add positions but doesn’t make me re-examine invalidation conditions, that’s not analysis, that’s looking for witnesses.
Third, if you miss the first move after data release, just miss it; don’t use the second trade to replace the first one While everyone is focused on the defense strength of USD/JPY at the 155 level, what I see is the Bank of Japan executing a deeply meaningful “Queen for Pawn” move in the midgame — they have abandoned the bluff at the front line and chosen to violently dismantle the most crowded carry trade camp in the global financial market. This is not a sudden ambush but a well-laid endgame trap set twenty moves earlier.
In chess theory, the most dangerous attacks often do not come from aggressive sacrifices but from the slow advance of the central pawn chain. The Bank of Japan officials’ preference for a 25 basis point rate hike to 1.25% in September is precisely this weighty “central pawn.” Service sector inflation is the powder keg, while the weak yen is the sacrificed knight luring the enemy in. If the market is seen as a scale, the drop of USD/JPY from 160.39 to 155 is the forced shutdown of the “weak yen” engine. Speculative funds running naked on low-interest currencies now face a “timeout loss” dilemma, forced to make extremely undignified stop-loss retreats in a very short time.
Immediately following, the short squeeze of 16 to 17 trillion yen warned by JPMorgan after the 155 break smells like a familiar “pawn structure collapse.” This 15-16 trillion yen carry trade is like an overstretched pawn chain. Initially, it created extreme visual pressure, pushing the exchange rate far from its core value center; but once the center is broken by this sudden rate hike expectation, all open lines from the low-interest era are forcibly invaded by the opponent’s rook. At this point, liquidation acts like a series of “forced responses,” not only pushing USD/JPY down to the next undefended pawn formation at 151-152 but also forcing global fund managers in panic to sell profitable risk assets to exchange for local currency liquidity — for Bitcoin and US stock tokens like XEWY, this is tantamount to having their rear supply lines completely cut off.
As the dollar interest rates and US Treasury yields on the board, they are now “pinned” pieces. On one hand, the yen’s appreciation directly lowers the expected US Treasury yields, causing the dollar index to weaken as if losing its two bishops; on the other hand, if the scale of carry trade liquidation creates a siphon effect, the scarcity of dollar cash will severely damage risk asset valuation models. Bitcoin’s liquidity is a piece easily sacrificed in this macro game because its pricing power is not on-chain but lies in the prudence of dollar-based capital. For XEWY, a highly correlated target, every rally by bulls currently faces systemic squeeze pressure brought by the yen’s “general,” essentially licking blood on the knife’s edge.
The endgame of exchange rates never requires heroism; it only counts who exhausts their forces first. The Bank of Japan has chosen to advance this decisive pawn at the most opportune moment, and the dollar’s position, like an unprotected A pawn on the board, will inevitably yield this victory under the pressure of time. Arbitrageurs can only try to find a barely survivable escape in this fierce offensive. #bojhikeoddsrise"Nonfarm Night, 5 Quick Reviews"
Quick Review 1: 162,000 vs 55,000 — This is not an upside surprise, this is a "death sentence"
August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000.
What was the expectation? 55,000.
Nearly three times.
July's data was revised from -23,000 to +21,000. June was also revised from 20,000 to 31,000.
The two months combined were revised upward by 55,000.
This is not a "slight beat". This is a "death sentence for rate cut expectations."
Quick Review 2: Gold drops $70 in 1 minute — All hard asset bulls liquidated simultaneously
After the data release, spot gold plunged over $70 in a short time, directly breaking below the $4400/oz level. Silver fell 2.11%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) surged 34 points to 99.32.
BTC dropped from 81,600, breaking below 80,000, hitting a low of 78,600.
The crypto market saw over $200 million liquidated in 1 hour, with longs overwhelmingly dominant. Total 24-hour liquidations across the network exceeded $750 million.
Gold, silver, Bitcoin — all "hard asset bulls" were collectively liquidated at the same moment.
The $200 million BTC liquidation is just a small chapter in this big story.
Quick Review 3: Rate hike probability jumps from 47.6% to 58% — But don’t think tonight is the final verdict
CME FedWatch shows the probability of holding rates steady in September quickly dropped to 42%, while the chance of a 25 basis point hike surged from 47.6% to 58%.
But Bank of America is right: Nonfarm is just the appetizer, CPI is the main course.
Under Chair Powell, the Fed has made it clear — reduce forward guidance and let the market rely entirely on hard data for decisions.
Nonfarm sets the tone for rate hikes; CPI will decide whether hikes actually happen.
Before the FOMC meeting on September 15-16, another CPI report will be released. That is the real "big test."
Quick Review 4: Below 80,000 — The "mass grave" of long leverage
BTC surged to 81,000 during the day, then within minutes after the nonfarm data release, it crashed below 80,000.
Below 80,000 lies the corpses of long leverage positions.
Just like June 5’s 61,000 and August 23’s 76,000 — the same script, just a different price.
Every time it’s "better-than-expected macro data → rising rate hike expectations → risk assets crash → long leverage gets cleaned out." The exact same process, the exact same outcome.
Quick Review 5: Before the next data release — reduce leverage below 2x or go flat
In Powell’s Fed era of no "answers," staying alive is more important than making money.
Before nonfarm, BTC rallied from 77K to 81K during the day, then crashed back to 78K right after the report. Those who chased longs during the day or couldn’t exit in time at night lost everything.
Before the next nonfarm and CPI releases — reduce leverage below 2x or go flat and wait.
This market owes no one money. But you owe yourself a position that keeps you alive.
$BTC $XAU $XAG #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 The foundation pit hasn't even been excavated yet, but the press conference has already preset "topping out in 2027"—put this on the review table, this is a competition of renderings, not construction drawings.
When I saw that 21 traditional financial giants including Bank of America, Citibank, Goldman Sachs, Fidelity, Deutsche Bank, UBS, and Wells Fargo are preparing to form a new company and plan to establish the entity the year after next and enter cross-border payments and digital asset settlement the year after that, my professional habit kicked in before excitement. The most honest disclosure in this plan is: "Nothing has been established; structure, reserves, and approvals have not been made public." No structure, no reserves, no approvals, yet the completion year is written in the press release—this is equivalent to deciding the tower height on a site without geological surveys. All structural aesthetics under the premise of missing foundation soil parameters are just suspended art installations.
Does the collective entry of traditional financial institutions mean the stablecoin building will be upgraded from a "wildly grown low warehouse" to a "compliant Grade A office building"? I will put on my safety helmet, lay the drawings flat on the scaffolding, and say: the real watershed has never been volume, but foundation selection. USDT and USDC have already formed a city complex connected by countless old streets, while newcomers bring the standard municipal pipelines of bank clearing systems. The pipelines are certainly more elegant, but architecture is not decided by the storefront logo. The moat of the crypto dollar has never been in the exterior decoration, but in those underground diaphragm walls that have been poured and are bearing soil pressure—the channel network, user habits, and 24/7 liquidity all convert into structural stiffness.
Reserves, custody, audits, and redemption stress tests are the raft foundation of this dollar tower. As long as these coefficients lack a signed geological survey report, all other discussions are invalid. The US "GENIUS Act" and the EU "MiCA Regulation" provide two sets of green certifications for the facade, but anyone who has done construction drawing reviews knows: green labels regulate operational energy consumption, not structural failure.
I also glanced at the adjacent foundation pit monitoring data on the bulletin board—$xLITE tower crane showed slight horizontal displacement. Some peers would put this into a hot-selling brochure, but I only record it in the settlement observation log according to regulations. An architect's daily routine is facing instruments: settlement has no emotions, only deviations from the design baseline.
The 21 giants sitting around the long table now look more like a closed-door scheme selection rather than a construction site. The timeline is clearly deduced from board calendars and regulatory schedules, not arranged by concrete curing periods. I've handled hundreds of projects, and there are too many cases without complete geological survey reports; those that eventually become landmarks can be counted on one hand. All groundbreaking ceremonies held before the structure is determined are essentially symbolic acts. Whether the building can stand depends not on how many clouds the glass reflects in the renderings, but on whether the raft foundation truly reaches the bearing layer. And at this moment, the soil layer thickness revealed by drilling is zero, yet someone is already discussing how to charge for the rooftop helipad.
According to the architect's delivery standards, this tower does not yet have coordinates available for measurement and staking. To really top out, first put the soil removal receipt from when the foundation pit bottom was reached on the review table. #tradfistablecoinalliance$BTC's recent rise is not driven by short covering at all,
CVD, spot CVD, and open interest all increased along with the price rise,
indicating that this rally is driven by demand from both sides of the market.
However, buying strength in the spot market far exceeds that in perpetual contracts, which is a good sign.
In a bear market, such demand is really not seen.
$DOGE has recently made a strong comeback with great momentum. From the macro structure and the higher lows here, DOGE seems poised for a large-scale rebound and continuation,
at least targeting a break above the ~$0.60 price area, achieving over 555% gains!
It may already be ready to launch from here. Wash's "Data Dependence" Trap: When the Fed Doesn't Give Answers, the Market Can Only Vote with Liquidations
Have you noticed that every nonfarm payroll in 2026 feels like a "big exam"?
June, July, August—each time replaying the same script: data release → violent fluctuations → liquidations.
On June 5, the U.S. stock market opened lower, triggering $160 million in liquidations.
On August 23, Bitcoin fell below $76,000, instantly vaporizing $91.27 million.
On September 4, nonfarm payroll data was released, and Bitcoin crashed through the $80,000 mark from $82,262 within minutes, with $225 million liquidated across the network in one hour, including $186 million in long position liquidations.
The same script, repeated over and over.
But have you ever wondered—why does the market panic as if seeing the data for the first time every time it is released?
The deep reason is simple: under Wash's leadership, the Fed no longer provides "answers."
On June 17, Wash's debut. The FOMC statement was only about 130 words—compared to over 300 words in April's statement. Many long-used phrases were removed, including the Fed's long-standing "forward guidance."
Wash said at the press conference: "Today's statement is shorter, more concise, and discards some old language. This statement only conveys facts we can confirm to the public."
"Forward guidance" is "not suitable for the current policy environment."
He even refused to submit his own dot plot forecast because "I don't think it helps policy implementation."
In plain language: the Fed no longer tells you in advance what it plans to do.
What is Wash's philosophy?
In his late August Jackson Hole speech, he made it very clear:
"Market participants will always try to predict the Fed's next move. But the Fed should not create a system where investors primarily rely on central bank signals to decide trading directions."
It's not Wash telling the market where rates should go; it's inflation and employment data telling Wash where rates should go.
He even specifically refuses to give the market a "reaction function"—how much inflation triggers a rate hike? How weak must employment be to pause? He doesn't provide that.
His logic is: the real economy is far more complex than simple models. Today's 3% inflation and 3% inflation in another environment do not necessarily mean the same policy.
Wash wants a "data-driven" market.
He got it—only every data release costs billions.
September 4 was a textbook demonstration.
August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs—market expected only 55,000, directly three times the expectation. June and July data were revised upward by a total of 55,000.
Once the data came out, CME's "FedWatch" showed the probability of a September rate hike soaring from 47.6% to 58%.
Then?
Gold dropped over $80 in the short term, breaking below $4,400/oz.
The dollar index rose briefly to 99.32.
Bitcoin crashed through $80,000 from $81,600 within minutes.
$225 million liquidated in one hour.
A "good news"—strong employment, improving economy—actually crashed the market.
Why? Because without forward guidance, without the Fed "pre-warning" in advance, the market can only violently reprice in an instant.
An Invesco analyst said: Wash is gradually removing the "road signs" the market relies on to judge policy direction.
Without road signs, every drive feels like speeding in fog.
This is not market "irrationality," but the Fed actively removing the "guardrails."
BNP Paribas' head of strategy said: "The market will be more prone to policy surprises in the future; the trading side needs to factor in higher rate hike risk premiums, and overall volatility levels will systematically rise."
JPMorgan Asset Management's CIO was more direct: "Reduced transparency offers no positive value; the market will only fall into more speculation and increased uncertainty."
But Wash doesn't care.
He believes dot plots and forward guidance constrain the Fed, causing the central bank to cling to old forecasts and amplify policy mistakes.
He wants "unpredictability" in policy.
Here comes the problem.
Until the Fed gives "guidance" again, every nonfarm payroll and CPI release is a squid game.
September 11 CPI release—this is the last card before the September FOMC meeting.
Nonfarm payrolls have already pushed the rate hike probability above 60%. If CPI beats expectations again, a September hike is basically certain.
If CPI is below expectations? The market will instantly violently reprice, liquidating positions in the opposite direction.
No matter how the data comes out, someone has to pay.
The only thing you can do is not put all your chips on the table.
Because the Fed now is no longer the Fed that tells you "what we're going to do" in advance.
Wash wants a "data-driven" market.
He got it. Only every data release costs billions.
$BTC $XAU $XAG #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 1. Macro Background: Interest Rate Easing, but Geopolitical Tensions Remain Unrelaxed The core macro variable this week comes from the Federal Reserve. Governor Christopher Waller hinted that if the August inflation data approaches the 2% target, he would support keeping interest rates unchanged. This directly alleviated market anxiety about further rate hikes, boosting risk asset appetite, and Bitcoin accordingly climbed above the $80,000 mark. But don’t celebrate too soon — geopolitical undercurrents are still turbulent. The U.S. military just completed a large-scale escort mission in the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump again signaled that "the U.S. might control the strait." If the Middle East situation fluctuates, the transmission chain of crude oil surging → inflation expectations heating up → rate hike expectations reigniting could be triggered at any time. Geopolitics is the biggest "black swan switch" in this market. In the past 24 hours, the total market liquidation scale reached $399 million, with long liquidations at $238 million, accounting for nearly 60%. What does this indicate? The longs chasing highs have already been washed out once. --- 2. Market Structure: Clear Capital Divergence Between BTC and ETH BTC is currently oscillating between $79,700 and $81,000. Last week's sharp rise was essentially a short squeeze — a large number of shorts were forcibly closed when breaking through $82,000, forced to buy back and push prices higher. After this "mechanical buying" subsides, the market needs to observe whether there is organic demand to support it. Notably, BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of about $101 million over the past 4 days, while ETH ETFs had a net outflow of $48.2 million during the same period. Institutional capitalThis looks more like a rates reset than a crypto-specific breakdown.
$BTC at $79.6K is falling with $ETH and $SOL as stronger payroll expectations reduce near-term easing hopes.
The key signal now is BTC vs gold. If BTC shows relative strength, it could confirm that broader macro demand remains intact.
Not financial advice, just analysis.
#DailyOrbit $ETH｜Complete Recap Summary of Yesterday's Nonfarm Payrolls
⚠️ Market recap only, not investment advice, contracts carry high risk
1. Core Nonfarm Data
August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, far exceeding the market expectation of only 55,000; unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, wages rose 3.1% year-over-year; July data was revised up from negative growth to +21,000, showing employment resilience far beyond market forecasts.
After the data release, the Fed's September rate hike expectations quickly rose, with the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields strengthening simultaneously, bearish for risk assets.
2. Market Capital Flow Reaction
At the moment of data release, the market collectively plunged: BTC fell below the 80,000 level, ETH directly lost the critical 2,500 support, with a short-term volume surge downward, triggering concentrated stop-losses on high-position longs; gold also plunged over $100, weakening the entire market.
The prior ADP nonfarm data was weak, and the market was originally betting on a dovish scenario, but this major nonfarm data directly reversed macro expectations, a typical case of a sell-off due to expectation deviation.
3. Market Logic Breakdown
1. Strong employment = delayed Fed rate cut expectations, even reopening the possibility of rate hikes, tightening liquidity expectations suppressing the crypto market.
2. The first sharp drop was a liquidity pulse, followed by minor oscillations and recovery, no immediate one-sided crash; the true direction awaits CPI data confirmation.
3. ETH has greater volatility elasticity than BTC, with stronger downside potential, forming a new resistance zone above in the short term. $ETH｜Complete Recap Summary of Yesterday's Nonfarm Payrolls
⚠️ Market recap only, not investment advice, high risk in contracts
1. Core Nonfarm Data
August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, far exceeding the market expectation of only 55,000; unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, wages rose 3.1% year-over-year; July data was revised up from negative growth to +21,000, showing employment resilience far beyond market expectations.
After the data release, the Fed's September rate hike expectations quickly rose, with the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields strengthening simultaneously, bearish for risk assets.
2. Market Capital Reaction
At the moment of data release, the market collectively plunged: BTC fell below the 80,000 mark, ETH directly broke the key 2,500 support, with a short-term volume surge downward, triggering concentrated stop-losses on high-position longs; gold also plunged over $100, weakening the entire market.
The prior small ADP nonfarm was weak, and the market was originally betting on a dovish scenario, but this large nonfarm data directly reversed macro expectations, a typical case of a sell-off due to expectation deviation.
3. Market Logic Breakdown
1. Strong employment = delayed Fed rate cut expectations, even reopening the possibility of rate hikes, tightening liquidity expectations suppressing the crypto market.
2. The first sharp drop was a liquidity pulse, followed by slight oscillation recovery, no immediate one-sided crash; the real direction awaits CPI data confirmation.
3. ETH has greater volatility elasticity than BTC, with stronger downside potential, forming a new resistance zone above in the short term. At the point of sentiment divergence, DOGE shows a bottoming signal
When market sentiment diverges, it is often more worth pondering than a one-sided trend. Currently, DOGE's bullish sentiment is only 40%, while bearish sentiment accounts for 60%, whereas BTC remains high and greed has not subsided—this contrast of "the overall market is still hot, but DOGE is already cold" is precisely a typical characteristic of DOGE's phase bottom.
The logic is not complicated. $DOGE holders are mainly retail investors, whose sentiment fluctuates more than $BTC. When retail investors collectively turn bearish, it indicates that the washing out of floating chips is nearing completion: those who want to sell have already sold, leaving mostly low-cost, stable-minded chips. Meanwhile, BTC maintaining greed indicates that the overall market liquidity and risk appetite have not deteriorated; funds are just rotating internally, not exiting. On one side, the overall market sentiment is healthy; on the other, the sentiment of an individual coin has bottomed. The gap between them is the space for recovery.
From past cycles, DOGE has repeatedly formed bottoms after diverging from BTC sentiment. It is highly elastic to sentiment changes; the more fully panic is released, the stronger the subsequent rebound momentum. Additionally, its price action often lags behind BTC. When BTC stabilizes first, funds will seek lower-risk gradients downward, and DOGE often becomes the recipient.
Of course, sentiment indicators measure the position of people's minds, not time. Divergence may last several days or extend to several weeks. The premise for a bottom-fishing signal to be valid is that BTC's sentiment does not weaken accordingly. Once BTC slides from greed into fear, the divergence is no longer an opportunity but the start of an overall correction. This looks more like a rates reset than a crypto-specific break. BTC at $79.6K is down alongside ETH and SOL as the stronger payroll narrative challenges near-term easing hopes. I would treat the next relative move in BTC versus gold as the cleaner signal: resilience there would suggest macro demand remains intact.
Not advice, just analysis.Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates in September???
Based on past data, the Federal Reserve tends to cooperate with the government near midterm elections or presidential elections. This is not complicated because it directly affects election outcomes, which politicians absolutely cannot tolerate.
A few days ago, Trump already said he wants Powell to "do the right thing," which means absolutely no rate hikes before the midterm elections. And if the Fed really raises rates in September or October, anyone can guess that Trump will definitely retaliate fiercely.
Although the Federal Reserve is independent from the U.S. government, political factors do influence monetary policy and cannot be ignored, especially now that the Trump administration has shown strong interference in Fed decisions, making political factors even more significant.
No matter how Trump retaliates, it’s definitely not good for the Fed. So theoretically, as long as the Fed governors are not out of their minds, they will accept not raising rates before the midterms. The reasons for turning dovish will depend on individual explanations.
Fed Governor Waller wants to turn dovish, citing cooling inflation as the reason. But anyone can see that current inflation data is still far from 2%, and with the prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict, oil prices are soaring higher and higher. So his reason simply doesn’t hold up.
Therefore, I believe the probability of a rate hike in September is low. $BTC is being pulled between two opposing forces.
Bitcoin ETF just attracted $730.9M — the largest daily inflow since January. But the US August NFP increased by 162K, far exceeding forecasts, raising the expectation of a Fed rate hike in September to nearly 60%. (The Block)
BTC therefore dropped below $80K after surpassing $82K.
Notably: institutions are still buying, but macro factors are working against crypto.
If ETFs continue to attract money, $80K could become a support zone. If the Fed turns more hawkish, BTC could face additional pressure.
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #ETFUS August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, while the market expected only 55,000 — directly three times the expectation. July data was sharply revised from "a decrease of 23,000" to "an increase of 21,000".
The probability of a Fed rate hike in September jumped from 50% to over 60%.
Gold plunged $70 in the short term, and the US Dollar Index DXY rebounded to 99.36.
Okay, the data is strong. But here’s the question — does an increase of 162,000 jobs justify a $200 million liquidation?
If the deviation is limited, such a drastic instantaneous reaction points more to the fragility of the leverage structure rather than a fundamental shift in macro logic.
Nonfarm payrolls are just the needle; the excessive leverage piled up below $80,000 is the balloon.
We have seen this script too many times.
On June 5, after nonfarm payrolls, $160 million was liquidated. On August 23, breaking below 76,000 triggered $91.27 million in liquidations.
The same formula, the same flavor — data release → sharp drop → cascading long liquidations → intensified decline.
Every time someone calls it a "black swan." Every time someone says "didn’t expect this."
But which time wasn’t it the high-leverage longs burying themselves?
When it surged to 81,600, the funding rate was only +0.0088%, showing this rally was not driven by leverage buildup. In other words — this rally itself was healthy.
But the $80,000 integer level was too tempting for the bulls. Too many took heavy positions and high leverage here, betting that "breaking 80,000 means the bull market restarts."
And the result? Once the data came, the needle pricked, and the balloon burst.
So what’s next?
Before the next nonfarm payroll and CPI releases — reduce leverage to below 2x, or even go flat and wait.
Don’t tell me "missing out is worse than liquidation." If you miss out, you can still survive; if liquidated, you don’t even get a chance to recover.
In this "data-driven crash" frequent market, high leverage is slow suicide. Not every time can you withstand a $2,400 instantaneous plunge.
$BTC $XAU $XAG #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 When Bitcoin starts to rise, all those miners who once pivoted to AI suddenly remember that they're mining companies.
Mining group stocks surged 40-67% in August, while CoreWeave only rose about 21%, Nebius 17%. Miners with more exposure to AI and HPC were practically flat or even declined. Just a 23% BTC increase, and the AI pivot story suddenly becomes far less appealing compared to simply holding coins.
Meanwhile, Strategy bought an additional 4,600 BTC, Strive boosted its holdings to over 23,000 BTC, Bitmine extended its $ETH buying streak to 65 consecutive weeks and now holds nearly 5% of the circulating supply despite unrealized losses exceeding $5 billion.
The most interesting news this week was the quietest one. 21 major financial institutions including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Citi are teaming up to develop a dollar stablecoin, slated for launch in the first half of 2027, compliant with both the GENIUS Act and MiCA. This isn't some small experiment—this is TradFi starting to build blockchain payment infrastructure in the most serious way yet.
This crypto season is being driven by institutions more than any cycle before.🐋 Whale Movements｜Some are still continuing to scoop up $HYPE
Just as Trump said he is pushing for Hyperliquid to enter the US market in a "fully compliant and legal" manner.
Right after, this mysterious whale 0x6436 started increasing their position again.
The latest purchase was 343,000 HYPE, about $29.09 million.
I casually checked the on-chain records and found this guy didn’t just suddenly jump in today.
Three months ago, they bought 1.28 million tokens near $70, and in the last 10 days, they continued to add near $82.
And from the on-chain records, in the past two days, they have been repeatedly:
Collecting HYPE → Consolidating → Transferring to a fixed address
Then collecting again → Transferring again
So far, they have accumulated about 3.24 million tokens, worth $252 million. According to Lookonchain monitoring, all these HYPE tokens were eventually staked.
So now it’s quite interesting:
On one side, the US is starting to explore how to legally allow Hyperliquid to enter the market
On the other side, a whale with $250 million level is still hoarding HYPE
One watches policy, the other watches real money.
$HYPE What exactly happened with the nonfarm payrolls tripling expectations?
At 8:30 PM last night, the U.S. Department of Labor released a set of data.
August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000.
What was the market expectation? 56,000.
Triple.
This is not a "slight beat," this is a crushing blow.
Don’t rush to scroll down yet, let me tell you what this means.
The 162,000 new jobs in August is the highest since March. And over the past 12 months, the monthly average increase was only 31,000.
Even more striking—the Labor Department significantly revised June and July data upward:
July was revised from a decrease of 23,000 to an increase of 21,000
June was revised from 20,000 to 31,000
A total upward revision of 55,000 over two months
A month ago, everyone was worried the job market was about to collapse. A month later, the data tells you: not only did it not collapse, it’s burning hotter than ever.
Market reaction? A textbook "data shock."
The probability of a Fed rate hike in September surged instantly from 47.6% before the data release to 65%.
Gold plunged $70 in the short term, breaking below the $4,400 level.
The dollar index shot straight up.
Bitcoin—within 5 minutes, it crashed from $81,600 through the $80,000 mark. Over $200 million liquidated across the network in one hour, with long positions liquidated at $186 million, accounting for over 90%.
All positions based on "rate cut trades" were completely repriced.
But here’s a more intriguing detail—
Three days before the data release, ADP "small nonfarm" showed only 38,000 new private sector jobs in August, the smallest increase since January.
The market was misled by ADP, betting that nonfarm payrolls would also be weak.
But the nonfarm came out at 162,000.
How big was the expectation gap? So big that all the shorts (those betting on weakness) were swept away.
But don’t jump to conclusions yet.
Bank of America said a big truth—the nonfarm is just the "appetizer."
The real verdict on the September rate hike will come with the CPI data on September 11.
Nonfarm covers the "employment" leg, CPI covers the "inflation" leg.
Fed Governor Waller has already stated—if data over the next two weeks continues to show inflation easing, the probability of a rate hike will quickly fall.
In other words:
Employment data opened the door for a rate hike, but inflation data will decide whether that door is fully opened or slammed shut.
This show has just begun.
$BTC $XAU $XAG #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 Last night the non-farm payroll data exploded, $BTC dropped from the highs, while storage stocks like $SNDK took off on the spot. Next, macro data will take the wheel.
The script for this week is very clear: interest rate hike expectations will fluctuate repeatedly, and the final verdict will come from next week's CPI/PPI. So as I said yesterday, I don't think this is a bull run #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温
1. BTC is digesting overbought conditions in the high range, altcoins like $ZEC are following the market. Yesterday's price is basically the short-term ceiling.
2. The storage sector collectively surged last night, xStocks will most likely have to catch up/repair discounts.
3. This pullback is not a bad thing; the rate hike is definitely going to happen, whether in September, October, or November. The sooner the risk is digested, the sooner the daily RSI can fall back from the overbought zone.
4. Institutions are also divided: net inflow was $101 million on the 2nd, but there were large outflows on the 1st and 3rd.
My thinking: 78,000 is short-term support; if the CPI data is bad, it might break below 75,000 🔥 US Treasury yields have surged again, will this fire spread to BTC?
What we really need to watch now is not just the non-farm payrolls, but the sustained high long-term interest rates. The 10-year Treasury yield once surged to around 4.81%, a multi-year high; the 30-year yield also surpassed 5%. Behind this are fiscal deficits, massive bond issuance, inflation, and AI company financing all competing for funds.
This is indeed unfavorable for BTC in the short term.
Yields ↑ → funding costs ↑ → risk asset valuations under pressure.
Interestingly, this time the market's concern is no longer just "the US economy is too strong," but that the US fiscal system itself needs to bear higher financing costs. After the US national debt exceeded $40 trillion, the pressure on the long-term bond market will become increasingly noteworthy.
So BTC should not be simply interpreted as "Treasury yields rise = BTC must fall."
📌 Short term watch interest rates, mid term watch liquidity, long term watch fiscal policy.
If the 10-year yield continues approaching 5%, both BTC and ETH need to guard against valuation compression; but if high yields eventually evolve into fiscal pressure, it could instead reinforce market demand for scarce assets.
⚠️ So the most important thing now is not to guess price direction, but to keep an eye on: Treasury yields, the US dollar, CPI, and whether BTC can hold key support levels.
Where this long bond fire truly burns is just beginning to be tested.
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 After the nonfarm payrolls hit, Bitcoin and gold both surprisingly dropped together
The ratio just touched about 18.17, meaning one BTC can exchange for about 18 ounces of gold, reaching a new high since January this year. Many regard this as a badge of relative strength for hard assets. However, the nonfarm payrolls came in at 162,000, crushing the expected 56,000—nearly three times the forecast. The rate hike bets rose from about 50% to around 60%. BTC dropped from around 81,000, and gold prices also fell. Both seemed to be treated like the same basket in US trading, repriced by interest rates and drained together.
Suddenly it makes sense: the ratio does not mean immunity to rate hikes. It only shows BTC is stronger relative to gold. Absolute prices still suffer from funding costs and dollar drain. Since most economies have debt-to-GDP ratios over 100%, the dilution narrative can lift both together. When employment is strong and discount rates tighten, both can be hammered simultaneously. Correlation and relative strength are two different things. Don’t mistake the ratio as a safe-haven switch.
Next, don’t just focus on the ratio number. Watch the CPI on the 11th and the FOMC on the 15th-16th to see if they can push back the 60% rate hike bets. Soft inflation might cause both to resonate again; hard inflation will truly split the basket. Whether the ratio can hold depends on the interest rate path, not just yesterday’s nonfarm bar. First watch the interest rate path, then the ratio. Don’t invert $BTC #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 📊 The non-farm payrolls have pushed back the "rate cut trade," but assets with real logic are actually easier to spot.
August non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, far exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. After the data release, US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthened simultaneously, and the expectation for a rate hike in September clearly intensified. The market is no longer trading on whether the data is good or bad, but on whether interest rates will rise again.
$BTC: Under short-term pressure, but ETF funds and institutional demand remain key. 80,000 is the first psychological barrier; whether it can hold above this level again is more important than just looking at a single bearish candle.
$ETH: More sensitive to liquidity than BTC, so it has greater elasticity after rate expectations reverse. When macro conditions loosen again, ETH often amplifies the market moves.
$XAU: Strong non-farm data suppresses gold, but the safe-haven logic remains; in the short term, it looks more like a tug-of-war between yields and safe-haven funds.
$SKHYNIX, $SNDK: The demand logic for AI computing power, HBM, and NAND has not been disrupted by the non-farm data for now; what really matters is whether orders and profits can continue to be realized.
⚠️ So don’t just focus on price moves now. Look at interest rates from a macro perspective, BTC for capital flows, AI for orders, and gold for safe-haven demand.
Next week’s CPI is the real second card.
Is this pullback a risk release or a trend weakening? I tend to wait for CPI to give the answer rather than betting on direction prematurely.
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 🔥 Is AI computing power still accelerating? I think it hasn't cooled down yet.
Let's look at the hardest data first: Dell's AI server backlog has reached $95 billion; Broadcom's Q3 AI semiconductor revenue is $16.7 billion, a year-on-year surge of 221%, and it expects AI revenue to reach $115 billion in 2027 and further surge to $230 billion in 2028.
So the question now is no longer "Is there demand for AI?" but rather—can the demand continue to exceed expectations?
Broadcom is the most typical example: strong performance and AI revenue, but because the market's future expectations are too high, even a slight guidance miss causes the stock price to be hammered. ⚠️
This is actually very similar to BTC right now.
The BTC to gold ratio has risen to 18.17, hitting a high since January, indicating BTC has recently regained strength relative to gold. But after this strength, the market also needs new incremental expectations to support it.
📌 So now I’m focusing on three things:
AI looks at orders, BTC looks at capital, altcoins look at sentiment.
A sound fundamental doesn’t mean prices won’t pull back; strong expectations don’t mean you can chase prices blindly.
What will truly decide the market next is whether earnings can continue to exceed expectations and whether capital can continue to take over.
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
Nonfarm payrolls at 162,000, directly crushing the expected 80,000, bulls got excited for nothing
Last night I was still wondering if 80,000 could hold, but when the nonfarm data came out, it completely stunned me.
The expectation was only 56,000, but the actual number was 162,000. I stared at that number for several seconds, thinking I had read it wrong. The June and July data were also significantly revised upward by 55,000, with July changing from a negative 23,000 to a positive 21,000. The average monthly number over the past year was only 31,000, so this is a fivefold increase.
During the day, Waller just came out and gave a dovish signal. He said if inflation data continues to improve, he tends to keep rates unchanged in September. The market immediately cheered, BTC surged to 82,000. But then the nonfarm data slapped back at night, pushing the rate hike probability from 50% to over 60%, and BTC dropped from 82,000 back to 79,000.
But don’t celebrate too early. In August, hourly wages only rose 3.1% year-over-year, so wage pressure hasn’t really increased. The core issue is next week’s CPI, which is the real key to deciding whether there will be a rate hike in September.
Right now, on Polymarket, the rate hike probability is split 50-50, no one dares to say for sure. BTC touched 82,000, then dropped back. Nonfarm won, but the war isn’t over yet, waiting for next week’s CPI
$BTC $ETH $ICX cold wallet suddenly surged🔥
The old coin, silent for more than half a year, unexpectedly triggered a wave of activity, and many people didn't react in time.
This is not just a random pump; the chain shutdown + token migration countdown for SODAX is catalyzing the market. The old ICON mainnet will shut down by the end of the year, and ICX can be swapped 1:1 for the new token SODA. The two-way exchange window will close by the end of September.
Some holders choose to lock their tokens for migration, passively tightening the circulating supply. Coupled with funds gathering on local Korean exchanges and the old project's community betting on a revival, buying pressure suddenly surged.
After breaking through key resistance, stop-loss orders were triggered, and short-term speculative funds followed in, pushing the 24-hour gain to over 40%.
Now the problem is quite real:
This surge is driven by migration expectations, not by new ecosystem achievements. The hype came fast, profit-taking is heavy, and indicators are already overbought.
There is huge selling pressure at round number levels, and once the positive news is realized, the rally could easily run out of steam.
You can keep an eye on the migration progress, but don't rush in at the top. This kind of old coin pulse comes fast and retreats even faster. #Pre-Nonfarm Observer: The 80,000 Level, Tonight Will Tell the Truth
BTC is stuck at 81,000, neither rising nor falling. Last night's rebound was driven by Waller's dovish tone; as US Treasury yields dropped, the price went up. But whether the 80,000 level can truly hold depends on tonight's Nonfarm data.
Market expectations are for an increase of 56,000 jobs, previous value -23,000, unemployment rate 4.1%. Three scenarios:
Hot data (100,000+ jobs, wage increase): US Treasury yields rise, rate hike expectations return, the 80,000 level faces pressure again, likely a false breakout
Moderate data (30,000-70,000 jobs, stable unemployment): the ideal scenario, employment cools gradually but the economy doesn't collapse, BTC has a chance to turn 80,000 from resistance into support
Data collapse (negative jobs, unemployment spikes): market starts pricing in recession, risk assets are indiscriminately sold off, BTC can't hold up
Many think worse employment is better for BTC, but that's a trap. When it gets bad enough, the market stops playing games with the Fed and directly seeks safe havens.
Tonight I won't bet on a single direction. Both bulls and bears hurt near 80,000; wait for the data to land, wait for the first candlestick to complete, wait for volume confirmation before making a move.
Either you explode or you make a killing — this is true, but the premise is not to get stopped out in the first candlestick.
#BTC #NonfarmData #80kLevel #CalculateYourPosition $BTC $ETH $SOL The non-farm payrolls pushed back the "rate cut trade," but some assets actually reveal who has the real logic!
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温
After the non-farm payrolls added 162,000, far exceeding expectations, $BTC came under renewed pressure. It's not that there's negative news within Crypto, but the market is re-trading high interest rates, with US Treasuries and the dollar strengthening together. Fortunately, ETF inflows remain strong, institutional demand hasn't disappeared, and the upcoming CPI is the key.
$ETH is more sensitive to liquidity than BTC, and pressure is more evident after the interest rate expectations reversed. However, ETFs, staking, and corporate holdings continue to absorb circulating supply. As long as these lines don't weaken significantly, ETH remains an asset that can easily amplify elasticity once macro conditions ease.
$SKHYNIX The real change in AI demand is competition. SK Hynix still holds the lead in HBM, but Samsung is rapidly catching up with HBM4. The market's next focus is no longer whether there is demand for HBM, but who can capture more profit in AI memory capacity expansion.
$XAU After strong non-farm data, gold is suppressed by high yields, but geopolitical risk aversion still supports it, maintaining a positive outlook on gold; $SNDK is strengthening against the trend, with funds continuing to trade the tight supply of NAND and enterprise SSDs driven by AI; $OKB's focus remains on X Layer. After RWAperp launched in 19 markets, the real test is whether new applications can continuously convert into trading volume and users.
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ Gold ETFs increased holdings by nearly 10 tons, with option volatility drawing attention
Gold is a bit conflicted here
ETFs added nearly ten tons in one go a couple of days ago
Then gave back about three tons the next day
XAUT is grinding around 4420
Resistance is seen near 4450
Support around 4400 still finds some buyers
The non-farm payrolls raised rate hike expectations
Both the dollar and real interest rates are relatively strong
So it's not easy for gold prices to rally unilaterally
Option volatility has been highlighted
Indicating big money is hedging directionally, not just sitting out
So my judgment is
Don't chase the fantasy of breaking 4500 in the near term
First watch who fails to hold the 4420-4450 range
Only if it holds can we talk about the next wave of risk premium $XAUT #黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温
The three major U.S. stock indexes all closed lower. But the storage chip sector exploded—SanDisk rose nearly 12%, SK Hynix rose over 8%, Micron and Western Digital rose over 6%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 3.4% against the trend.
The market is showing a clear signal: while rate hikes suppress valuations, the fundamental logic of AI hardware remains intact.
The stronger the non-farm payrolls, the higher the probability of rate hikes, theoretically putting tech stocks under pressure. But funds are actually flowing out of software stocks and rushing into hardware. On the same day, the iShares Software ETF fell about 2.4%, sharply contrasting with the semiconductor index.
In short, the market is repricing AI—after two years of hype around models and applications, it’s now clear that the real orders are going to the "shovel sellers" like GPUs, storage, and optical modules. SanDisk just signed a $93.9 billion five-year long-term agreement, and SK Hynix’s HBM capacity is locked until 2027. This is not speculation; these are real orders backed by real money.
My judgment: rate hikes change the cost of capital but cannot alter the rigid demand for AI computing power. The storage sector is a safe bet. $CORE Community Extreme Viewpoint Analysis: CORE Cross-Chain Bridge Controversy, Separating Rumors from Facts
This is a very radical bearish long article circulating in the community, widely spread online. It mixes real events, subjective speculation, and conspiracy theories, so objective facts and subjective guesses need to be separated.
📝 Objective facts that have occurred
1. Node reward logic BUG caused excessive minting of CORE tokens, breaking the original total supply narrative. The excess was later destroyed through a hard fork. This incident indeed shook part of the community's faith.
2. The early BTC Hashlock cross-chain bridge once experienced shutdowns and redemption restrictions. A large number of users' BTC were staked on-chain and could not be freely redeemed, which has been the community's biggest long-term pain point.
⚠️ Subjective conspiracy theories, not yet confirmed facts
1. "Deliberately shutting down the cross-chain bridge and freezing users' BTC to pump and dump and prepare for exit" is a logical deduction by netizens without official solid evidence.
2. "Opening the cross-chain bridge constitutes fraud and entails criminal liability" is a personal legal guess by netizens and cannot be taken as a definitive conclusion.
3. "The project team is preparing to declare technical failure and give up, permanently locking BTC"—currently, the official side has not released such signals.
Current real situation
1. The CORE node BUG incident has been resolved by a hard fork, and ordinary users' CORE staked assets have been returned to their wallets.
2. The BTC Hashlock staking channel still has redemption restrictions, which remains the community's biggest unresolved pain point. Many users' BTC staked assets face difficulties in the exit process, which is also the core attack point for bears.
3. SatPay and institutional products are still in testing and iteration, but as long as the cross-chain BTC redemption issue is not properly resolved, the community trust gap will be hard to repair.
Objective view: The BUG incident really happened; cross-chain bridge redemption difficulties are a real user pain point; however, "deliberate fraud and exit schemes" belong to unconfirmed conspiracy theories.
Whether bullish or bearish, the redemption risk of BTC staked assets is a risk point that every participant must seriously consider. Yesterday's pullback was actually quite healthy; it can't go straight up every day. It's now at 79,600, not far from the 82,000 high, nor from the 77,000 low—just stuck in the middle. If I were out of position, I wouldn't chase now; if you have a position, don't rush to sell. Volume is low over the weekend, so don't take the erratic moves seriously. The key focus for next week is just one thing: whether 79,000 can hold or not.
$BTC ENA back to 0.17, I’m actually not in a hurry to bottom-fish
ENA is currently around $0.166, down about 3.7% in 24 hours. More importantly, about 171.88 million ENA will be unlocked on September 5, accounting for about 1.1% of the total supply, including 93.75 million from core contributors and 78.13 million from investors.
At the same time, although the fee switch has been approved, the buyback has not truly started. The rule requires the 14-day average circulation of USDe to reach $7.5 billion first; on September 2, it was about $4.22 billion, still about 78% short.
So I’m only watching two things: whether tokens flow significantly to exchanges after unlocking, and whether USDe can continue to expand.
If 0.16 holds: continue to observe with a bullish bias.
If it falls below 0.15 and exchange inflows increase: switch to cautious.
The biggest mistake now is not misjudging ENA’s direction, but treating the "future buyback" as "today’s buying pressure" prematurely.The anonymous privacy coin $ZEC has finished its pump, and it should be $xMRVL's turn next. Previously, after ZEC's pump peaked, ZEN and $DASH put on a show, and finally, the true privacy coin XMR launched a major bull run, breaking its all-time high and entering the top ten by market cap.
Since XMR was delisted by major exchanges, it has maintained its own independent market trend. XMR's underlying protocol is designed with ring signatures, stealth addresses, and confidential transactions—not as "add-on features," but as integral parts of its core.
When you send a transaction with XMR, it is private by default, requiring no additional third-party tools. Even if the blockchain is fully public, others cannot see exactly how much you received or to whom you sent it. Some say Monero's liquidity is poor and it's not as mainstream as BTC. That's true; it's a drawback. But when it comes to real privacy, mixers are at best a "fig leaf," while Monero addresses the problem "at the source."
So I've always believed: mixers are a temporary compromise, but Monero is the true privacy coin. #NonfarmPayrollsExploded Observer: Expected 2.9 times, rate hike probability maxed out
At 8:30 tonight, once the data came out, the market was stunned.
US August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, expected only 56,000, hitting 2.9 times the expectation. Previous value was -23,000, this jump is huge.
CME rate hike probability jumped from about 50% directly to 62.3%, next stop 70%.
Market reaction was honest: BTC plunged from 80,500 to 79,200, gold plummeted over 70 dollars, US Treasury yields soared. Previously, the market logic was "cooling employment → rate hike probability down → risk assets rebound," but tonight this script was completely overturned.
But one detail is worth noting:
A single nonfarm payroll report cannot solely determine the direction of the September FOMC.
Next week's August CPI is the real final judge. If CPI also exceeds expectations → September rate hike is locked in; if CPI is moderate → there may still be a chance.
---
Three key milestones are set:
Tonight's nonfarm ✅ released, bearish impact settled
Next week's CPI → the real direction switch
September 15-16 FOMC → the finale
Before these are completed, the direction is still undecided.
Don't rush to bottom-fish or short tonight. The initial candlestick right after the data release is often swept by algorithms; wait for the market to digest before acting. My short positions remain, but no rush to add; wait for CPI to give the final signal.
#BTC #NonfarmData #RateHikeProbability #CPIIsTheRealJudge #CalculateYourOwnLeverage $BTC BTC.D is not a fixed value; it oscillates within a range. When BTC.D rises, funds flow into BTC, and altcoins generally come under pressure; when BTC.D slightly falls, altcoins get a chance to breathe.
Currently: BTC.D maintains a high-level range oscillation and has not continued to decline.
$SOL: Can receive capital support during the BTC.D oscillation and pullback window;
ZEC, ENA: Even at high BTC.D levels, they can experience short-term pulses based on narratives, but it's difficult to establish a large-scale trend;
$DOGE: The market is almost unaffected by small BTC.D fluctuations and is entirely sentiment-driven.
Do not expect altcoins to collectively enter a major bull market when BTC.D remains high. Only when BTC.D shows a sustained decline will the altcoin sector have an overall opportunity. During high-level oscillation phases, it is only suitable to capture local themes and leading projects.
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
#HOOD收涨创年内新高，链上收入居公链第一 Non-farm payrolls crash the market, but memory chips collectively surge! SanDisk joins the S&P 100, AI memory goes completely crazy
SanDisk surged 11.9% in a single day to $1740, Micron rose over 6% breaking the $1000 mark, SK Hynix rose over 4%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose over 3%.
Why?
AI's strong demand is supporting the market. Goldman Sachs expects DRAM and NAND supply-demand tightness to continue until 2027, with AI server DRAM usage 8 to 10 times that of traditional servers. Samsung's high-end AI memory capacity is sold out through the end of 2026.
SanDisk: Data center revenue surged 1298% year-over-year and doubled quarter-over-quarter. Even more impressive, it was officially included in the S&P 100 on September 21 — passive funds are immediately coming to lift the stock.
Micron: Plans to increase HBM monthly capacity to 100,000 wafers by year-end; the most advanced HBM is sold out for all of 2026. However, 80% of the Taiwan union supports a strike, so supply could be cut again at any time.
My judgment: The storage AI logic is not finished yet; short-term chasing of highs requires caution. SanDisk has passive funds to catch the stock, Micron has long-term benefits but union risks. The real direction depends on the CPI on September 11; if SanDisk's September 30 earnings report and guidance exceed expectations, it could rise another wave.
$SNDK $MU $SKHYNIX 美国8月非农新增16.2万人，路透调查预期只有5.6万人。实际值接近预期的三倍。 “远超预期”没有夸张。“加息押注升温”也属实。数据公布后，市场对美联储9月加息25个基点的定价从49.4%升至58.4%。两年期美债收益率一度升至4.38%附近。 华尔街的第一反应很标准：就业越强，美联储越有底气继续压通胀。利率上升，估值承压。 盘面却没有失控。 截至9月4日收盘，标普500指数下跌0.4%，纳斯达克下跌0.3%，罗素2000指数反而上涨0.2%。如果这份非农足以开启一轮持续紧缩，市场不该只跌这么一点。 我的判断很直接：这份数据对风险资产中期偏多。 它增加了9月加息的可能，却大幅削弱了经济滑向衰退的担忧。一次25个基点的加息可以计算，可以消化。企业利润进入下行周期，才会从根上破坏牛市。 此前市场担心，美国就业正在突然失速。 7月非农初值是减少2.3万人，一度引发衰退讨论。最新报告把7月修正为增加2.1万人，6月也被上修。两个月合计多出5.5万个岗位。 这个修正比8月单月的16.2万更有分量。 它说明夏季就业没有断崖式下滑。企业招聘放慢了，尚未转向普遍裁员。失业率维持在4.1%，劳动参与率升Another chain cut off!
Ondo's move is quite decisive
On September 8th, Aptos and Noble directly stopped minting USDY
Osmosis and Mantra using the IBC bridge also got hit
What I'm watching is the phrase "fully backed reserves"
Simply put, it's about fearing cross-chain issues
Better to take it back and manage it yourself for peace of mind
Whales holding over 1000 can still redeem at net asset value
The window is open until 2027
What about small holders?
They can only bridge to other networks themselves
It's a bit troublesome
But at least the money isn't locked
This wave isn't a bad thing
RWA projects are starting to contract their battle lines
Instead of spreading chains everywhere to look strong
Better to concentrate liquidity on a few main battlefields
I guess more projects will follow
Cross-chain arbitrage opportunities
Might be changing soon
Do you have USDY in your hands?
$APT $ONDO
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ On-chain fund rebalancing: Ethereum mainnet leads with a single-day net inflow of $46.47 million, Robinhood Chain leads L2 net outflow with $21.07 million Data from September 5 shows that in the past day, on-chain funds have clearly concentrated on the Ethereum mainnet and a few established public chains: Ethereum net inflow of $46.47 million, about 4.5 times that of second-place Solana; on the other hand, Robinhood Chain, Arbitrum, Hyperliquid, and others combined net outflow exceeded $100 million, with the four major L2s (including Robinhood Chain) totaling a net outflow of about $69.55 million. The market shows a rebalancing pattern of funds returning to Ethereum and withdrawing from L2s. Robinhood Chain became the largest net outflow party of the day, with a net outflow of $21.07 million. This broker-affiliated L2, launched in July 2026 and built on Arbitrum Orbit, ranked among the top in Meme coin and tokenized stock trading volume in the past two months. Its on-chain fees once surpassed Ethereum, Solana, and Base, making it one of the most watched emerging L2s this year. However, it took only a short time for the bridge funds to turn from net inflow to net outflow after leading in trading volume, indicating that high activity driven by hot trading does not necessarily translate into sustained capital retention. Meanwhile, Arbitrum, Base, and Polygon also turned to net outflows, with the four major L2s totaling about $69.55 million in outflows. The perpetual contract public chain Hyperliquid had a net outflow of 18