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Hello everyone, I am your old friend.
Today, the overall account looks pretty good. I am still holding the two short positions on $DOGE and ETH, with comfortable profits. I just opened a long position on BTC, currently with a slight loss, but the overall account is still in profit.
$DOGE: Entry price 0.09984, current price 0.094571, full position 20X leverage, unrealized profit 692U, ROI 112%. This position has been held for several days, moving steadily downward without much adjustment. I continue to hold the short position, targeting 0.09 first, and will consider exiting once it reaches there.
$ETH: Entry price 2739.79, current price 2712.73, full position 20X leverage, unrealized profit 88U, ROI 19%. It was still underwater yesterday, but today it turned positive smoothly. I continue to hold, watching for 2600.
$BTC: Entry price 84407.31, current price 83973.45, full position 20X leverage, unrealized loss 70U, ROI -10%. This is a newly opened long position, just entered near the cost line. I will hold and observe for now. As long as BTC doesn't fall below 83000, there shouldn't be much problem. The upper target is 86000.
In summary: short positions are responsible for making money, long positions are for testing the waters, and the overall account is still in the green. Trading doesn't need to be too complicated; if the direction is right, just hold on. Don't panic with light positions even if they are underwater.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 Core reasons for the decline: geopolitical shocks + macroeconomic pressure
① Trump rejected Iran's seven-day ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz plan, and did not rule out further military action. Brent crude oil surged over 3%, briefly breaking $108. Oil prices → inflation expectations → US Treasury yields → risk assets under pressure, the chain is clear.
② The 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.27%, the highest since 2007, with the 2-year near 5%. Yield ↑ → US dollar assets become more attractive ↑ → high valuation, high volatility assets under pressure, BTC, Nasdaq, and gold all drained, with gold plunging 4% as a signal.
So this round is a double hit from geopolitical and macro factors. The short-term 85200 resistance has already gained 2600 points, take profit on half; do not catch a falling knife on a breakdown. Keep a close eye on oil prices, US Treasury yields, and Fed signals; as long as these three do not ease, any rebound is a bear trap. $BTC#This week features key Nonfarm and PCE data #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
$HYPE has finally started to pull back.
After several large unlocks in a row, the newly added $HYPE in the market has reached tens of billions of dollars. During the unlocking wave in September, 14.18 million HYPE flooded out, with insiders accounting for nearly half. On-chain data is even more direct: the team actually sold about $165 million, although the protocol buyback amount reached $364 million, with cumulative buybacks exceeding $1 billion. However, the buyback funds come from protocol fees, which heavily depend on the trading activity of trade.xyz alone. In other words, the bottom-supporting funding chain is essentially tied to a single deployer.
Whether the market can hold up doesn't depend on how large the unlock volume is, but on whether the source of buyback funds is stable. Now, ETF funds have shifted from continuous net inflows to continuous net outflows, institutional forced unpledging pressure is accumulating in the shadows, and the protocol income supporting buybacks is weakening. With pressure from both sides, the key support level of $50 is no longer a question of "likely to hold," but "what will hold it." I don't think the HYPE story is over, but betting on support at this level is not a bet on fundamentals, but on the patience of counterparties.
$ZEC is even more interesting.
Yesterday, "Green Hair" was still saying to buy below 1000, and I was waiting too. But when I checked my position this morning, he had already sold most of it.
What happened to the long-term hold?
$ZEC is now hovering around 1500. It surged from 953 in September to above 1650, with a market cap reaching 27.4 billion. Grayscale's privacy coin ETF has had 16 consecutive days of net inflows, absorbing over $500 million, and 21Shares has also launched a physical ETP in Europe. The narrative is indeed strong—AI surveillance is expanding, making privacy assets more macro-rational. But the technicals are already showing signs: MACD death cross, RSI dropping back to 49, analysts flip-flopping between target prices of 900 to 1000 and cup-and-handle pattern warnings. "Green Hair's" "long-term hold" is always for the livestream audience; what he actually executes is position management, not faith. Saying to buy below 1000 but taking profits first—this isn't betrayal, it's honesty, just honesty directed at his own account, not the audience.
This Wednesday is PCE, Friday is Nonfarm Payrolls. The Fed's October rate hike probability is already set at about 65%, Brent crude is approaching $100 again, and the 10-year US Treasury yield has risen above 5.2%. Risk assets shouldn't feel comfortable at this point.
HYPE faces a structural supply-side interrogation, while ZEC faces a rift between narrative and position. The two problems are different, but the answer may be the same: when price starts to ask you "why are you worth this money," the truly reliable things are often fewer than you think.
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% $LIT Review: Correct Direction, Lost on Entry
Today I tried three short trades on $LIT. The four-hour timeframe has already turned bearish, previous support was broken, and the downward momentum is visible to the naked eye, so the overall direction was not hard to judge. Unfortunately, when placing the actual orders, the entry points were not well chosen: chasing shorts feared a rebound, hesitated waiting for a pullback, and in the end got caught by the trend but didn’t take a big piece. The earlier long position setup also failed, meaning I read the script right but didn’t position myself well.
However, trading is not just about who makes more profit, but also who makes fewer mistakes. Although I missed the main drop phase this time, at least I caught a bit of the trend. The problem is clear: the direction judgment was fine, but the entry timing and position execution need refinement. Next time when encountering a downtrend after support breaks, I should wait for a pullback confirmation before entering, rather than chasing orders driven by emotion.
This week also has Nonfarm Payrolls and PCE data coming up, so volatility will only increase. In $LIT’s market conditions like this, position sometimes matters more than direction. Make a small improvement each day, remember today’s regrets, and if you make one less mistake tomorrow, that counts as a win.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
US Treasury yields have surged again, with the 10-year hitting 5.27% and the 30-year at 5.55%, both the highest since 2007. Gold has crashed, dropping over 4% intraday, and silver followed with nearly a 5% decline. The reason is simple: oil prices remain high, keeping inflation expectations elevated, and the market's bet on an October rate hike has reached 70%. Holding gold yields no interest, and with US Treasury yields so high, the opportunity cost is too great, so funds are flowing into the dollar and bonds, naturally putting pressure on gold prices.
BTC has also retreated. But there is a key difference to note. Gold's drop is due to its safe-haven status being suppressed by rising interest rates, while BTC's decline is due to risk assets losing liquidity. The logic is different. Gold's safe-haven attribute is temporarily ineffective against interest rates, whereas BTC, besides being a risk asset, also has a long-term logic as a hedge against fiat currency credit. In the short term, if US Treasury yields do not fall, BTC's rebound will be limited. Around 83,500 is short-term support; breaking below that points to 82,000. Resistance is at 85,000, with stronger pressure zones between 86,500 and 88,000.
This week also brings PCE and non-farm payroll data; don't bet on direction before the data is released. The market is already pricing in high interest rate expectations, so wait for the data to settle. If PCE cools and rate hike expectations ease, BTC will have a chance to catch its breath. For now, watch more and trade less; don't rush to bottom-fish. At this stage, watching the show is safer than jumping in. $BTC $ETH $XAUT So weak, Bitcoin is very close to a major correction threshold!!!
Gold plummeted 4%, US Treasury yields surged to 5.27%, what should BTC focus on next?
Yesterday, US Treasury yields rose sharply, with the 10-year hitting about 5.27%, the highest since 2007, and the 2-year nearing 5%. The Fed is still considering further rate hikes. The logic is straightforward: US Treasury yields ↑, attractiveness of dollar assets ↑, high valuation and high volatility assets under pressure, so BTC naturally takes a hit.
Technically weak as well, the 85200 resistance level was publicly given by the chief, currently up over 2600 points in profit, you can take half off the table first. For the rest, see if it breaks the key support, don’t be greedy, a rebound without volume is a bearish rhythm. Next, focus on US Treasury yields and Fed signals; if they don’t ease, BTC will struggle. $BTC#This week faces key Nonfarm and PCE data #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% A new address withdrew 11,600 $ETH in 5 hours, with an average price of 2667 USD, floating profit of 550,000.
Honestly, if this happened two years ago, I would be nervous, but now I'm more curious.
In the past, such large withdrawals would immediately make me think "someone is up to something." Now it looks more like outside funds are slowly testing the waters—not rushing to buy coins, just withdrawing and holding.
30.97 million USD is not a huge amount for veteran players.Something to consider deeply…
Next $BTC bear cycle, we may never trade below 100K again.
This cycle only deviated 16% below the prior ATH. If BTC tops at 160K-180K, even a similar deviation keeps the next bear-market low above 100K.
This could genuinely be the last cycle you ever get to buy BTC under 100K.$SOL
Today's market is really damn disgusting,
The support level held for several hours, but the first support point didn't hold,
It dropped straight from 124 to 116, watching the profits shrink again significantly, it's impossible not to curse inside. But despite the cursing, we have to figure out why it fell. I checked around, mainly the Middle East is causing trouble again, Trump is pressuring Iran, and oil prices surged directly to 107. When oil prices rise, inflation won't come down, and the Fed's rate cut expectations are completely dashed. Now US Treasury yields have broken 5.2%, keeping money in the bank earning interest is better than holding coins, so not only SOL, Bitcoin also fell below 83,000. This is a systemic risk in the market, not that the SOL ecosystem itself is rotten.
Looking at the technicals now, the 1-hour moving averages have all been broken down, MACD is still below the zero line. RSI is around 46, not yet extremely oversold, indicating there might still be room for a short-term dip. Now 116 is today's low, a key level. If it doesn't hold, the next support to watch is 110-112. Resistance above is at 118-120, if the rebound can't break through, it will be weak consolidation.
I didn't sell a single share today, and I don't plan to catch a falling knife at 116. I still have 20,000 yuan in bullets tightly held, waiting for it to really drop to 110-112 and stabilize, or break back above 120 with volume, then I'll consider acting.
A heartfelt word to brothers: this sharp drop, those with high-leverage contracts have probably gone to zero. For spot and low-leverage contracts, as long as your liquidation price is low enough, hold on calmly, don't be scared by this kind of news-driven panic.$BTC has a major liquidity cluster sitting around $82,000.
If Bitcoin pulls back short term, we could see this liquidity swept first before the next move higher.
But the majority of liquidity is still stacked above price around $85,000–$88,000.Opening the SOL hourly chart, I was startled. Isn't this another descending wedge? A descending wedge is a high-probability bullish signal, meaning the market could break upwards at any time! The reason I'm still holding short positions is to gamble on it continuing to pull back. Seeing this pattern, I currently don't plan to watch how deep the pullback goes; I'll close all positions at 145 to take profit. Then I'll look for opportunities to go long! In a bull market, holding long positions lets you sleep better than holding shorts, following the trend is steady, and there's a chance to make big gains. This is my current thinking. The same applies to ETH; I'm preparing to place breakout orders to go long! Whether you are long or short now, check my pinned posts.🔥$ETH $BTC volatile market, profits easily go on a roller coaster
ETH's 2720-2750 is a key resistance, similar to the previous 2530-2550, multiple tests met with pressure and pullback, prioritize reducing positions again when it rises to this level.
Not bearish, volatility naturally involves repeated shakeouts.
BTC held 82500 yesterday and rebounded to 84300, short-term focus on 85000. If it breaks through this level without volume, reduce some positions.
💰You don't have to sell at the highest point, just secure your profits steadily.
🚨Don't let the expectation of "it will rise again" turn your profits back into unrealized gains.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% $0G
After a volume breakout, can the hype around 0G turn into a sustained trend?
The AI data infrastructure narrative attracts capital, but the trend continuation still requires simultaneous growth in spot trading volume and ecosystem usage. If there is a pullback with reduced volume while holding the breakout zone, the structure remains relatively strong.
If there is high-volume stagnation at the top and rapid capital outflow, I would be cautious of a sentiment downturn. $BTC - hourly timeframes
Poor lows taken out ✅ Next magnet is weekly open imo. Good scalpable long.
Supported by range idea, local mmd, local SFP, TPO (taking out poor lows) and weekly open magnet above.
I took a scalp long. Won't share management too much, but idea is similar: trim halfway, close 60/70% by target (weekly open), invalidation upon local breakdown.
Managing tightly personally given my overall bearish bias of expecting 75k.
But between 86k entry and 75k target, there is some$ONE Damn, ONE has dropped back to 0.00225.
Isn't this exactly where I cut my losses last time? 😂
I got shaken out then,
and afterwards it really did rally for a while.
Now it’s dropped back again.
Alright,
I bought back in.
Sometimes this coin is really frustrating,
just as you leave it, it rallies,
just as you try to forget it,
it drops right back in front of you.
This time I’m starting with a small position.
Around 0.00225, let’s see if it’s truly weak or just stirring things up again. 😂
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 $BTC Chopping around but holding the $83K level so far. This is important because that level was the May high which marked the weekly market structure break.
$85K is the level to break for continuation. In that case I think we can start looking at $88K+.
But you need to keep seeing daily closes above $83K.What major positive developments are there in the crypto space in October?
1. Mt. Gox final repayment landing on October 31
This is one of the biggest on-chain events this year. After all the negative news, selling pressure might actually weaken; but there could also be short-term disturbances. The key depends on the actual flow of funds after the repayment.
2. Ethereum Hegota upgrade expectations heating up
In Q4, account abstraction may be advanced, allowing users to pay gas fees with stablecoins, social wallet recovery, and institutional-level permission control, all expected to improve the Ethereum experience. This won't be realized immediately, but October will likely see funds trading ahead of it.
3. Upgrade windows for Solana, Cardano, Polkadot, etc. approaching in Q4
Solana's Alpenglow, Cardano's Leios, and Polkadot's JAM are all progressing in the second half of the year into Q4. If testing goes smoothly, public chain performance narratives will regain attention.
4. Policy battles before the US midterm elections
The midterm elections on November 3 make October typically the most active period for policy expectations. Crypto political funding, regulatory statements, and lawmakers' campaigning could all catalyze sentiment.
5. Bitcoin spot ETF fund flows and the "Uptober" seasonality
Historically, Bitcoin performs well in October, but it has already rebounded significantly from lows this year, so seasonality should not be blindly trusted; what really matters is whether ETFs continue to see net inflows and if BTC can effectively break through.$LINK: Major collaboration between CCIP 2.0 + Swift, the core leader in rotating market trends, hitting a new high this year
LINK intraday range 13.55–15.23, price directly hitting a new high this year.
Two major core catalysts
1. Official release of CCIP 2.0: supports enterprises to independently add verification nodes, addressing the cross-chain security shortcoming. Background reference: In April, Kelp DAO suffered a Lazarus hacker theft of $292 million, the root cause was the LayerZero single validator architecture, CCIP 2.0 upgrade specifically solves this pain point.
2. Swift major implementation (Sibos 2026): Based on Chainlink Runtime Environment, financial institutions can access the Swift ledger to achieve tokenized deposit read/write and 7×24 cross-border payments. 17 banks are preparing pilots, including HSBC, Citi, UBS, and Wells Fargo. Swift connects over 11,500 institutions globally, covering 200+ markets, effectively securing the key entry point for blockchain adoption in the banking system.
Capital flow: LINK spot ETF has had net inflows for three consecutive weeks, with an additional $2.41 million inflow on Monday.
✅ First support: 14.52, a valid break below will retest 11.76
⚠️ Strong resistance: 16.60, a breakout with volume will open upward space, target 20.19 【Must-Read Analysis Article】A 300% Surge in One Week, What Exactly is QNT? How Much Growth Potential Does It Have Going Forward?
👉Quant's core product, Overledger, can be understood as a middleware connecting traditional financial systems with different blockchains. Quant aims for banks to integrate tokenized deposits, digital assets, and various distributed ledgers without having to rebuild their existing systems from scratch. Officially, Overledger is positioned as the bridge connecting digital currencies, assets, traditional payment rails, banking infrastructure, and blockchain networks.
News Sparks the Rally
The starting point of this QNT surge can be traced back to September 24, when Quant announced a partnership with the U.S. financial infrastructure institution The Clearing House (TCH).
The core of their collaboration is that TCH will select Quant to provide technical support for its On-Chain Money Initiative, aiming to build an interoperable payment network for financial institutions to clear and settle tokenized deposits.
💪This QNT rally is not without fundamental support. Whether it’s TCH’s on-chain money plan or related projects in markets like the UK and Japan, these all indicate that Quant is gaining real validation of its technical capabilities from traditional financial institutions. As tokenized deposits and digital asset settlements gradually move from concept to implementation, there is indeed room for further growth. 核心判断：BTC 的现货需求显著增强，但杠杆增长速度开始快于价格。 ETF 单周流入近24亿美元，推动 BTC 突破前期压力位；与此同时，TGA 补充令银行准备金周均减少836亿美元。当前偏多，但已不适合忽视杠杆和美元流动性风险。 1. Bitcoin 市场结构 已确认事实 美国现货 BTC ETF 连续五个交易日净流入，单周合计约 23.86亿美元： 资金分布于 IBIT、FBTC、ARKB、MSBT 等多只产品，并非单一基金贡献。Farside Investors BTC 七日区间约 8.09万–8.73万美元，截至本期截点约8.44万美元，已突破此前8.2万–8.3万美元压力区，但尚未站稳周内高点。CoinGecko 期货未平仓量由上周约347亿美元升至约 389.6亿美元，增幅约12%；但主要交易所年化资金费率仍处于 −0.32%至+3.65% 的温和区间。Newhedge Strategy 于9月21日披露买入 950 BTC，投入约7570万美元、均价79,670美元；总持仓升至846,000枚，综合成本约75,416美元。Strategy 本周未发现达到简报门槛的新增链上$BTC BTC 1-hour level: short-term stop of decline and stabilization, currently attempting to rebound upward.
Previously dropped sharply from 85,199 to 82,556, now has recovered and rebounded to 83,800. Short-term moving averages (MA5/10/20 around 83,460-83,818) have started to flatten and slightly turn upward, with the price standing above them, indicating signs of short-term stabilization. The lower super trend line at 82,725 is a newly established safety cushion.
Suggestion: There are signs of short-term stabilization, but don't rush to chase the highs. For those holding positions, focus on the support at 82,725 (super trend line); if it holds, you can hold on. For those looking to enter, wait for a volume-supported break and hold above 84,570 (resistance level) before considering entry, or lightly test on a pullback near 83,100 if it doesn't break down. This is the early stage of a rebound, with considerable resistance above, so manage your position size carefully. "In a Divergent Market, First Watch the Defense Line, Then the Story"
Chasing gains fears standing by, bottom fishing fears catching a falling knife; divergent markets test patience the most. At this moment, the market action is more trustworthy than the narrative.
$ZEC is near 1485, surging then pulling back, selling pressure still releasing. 1313.96 is the lower boundary of the bullish structure: holding it keeps the uptrend framework intact; a decisive break below opens further correction space. To regain strength, it must first reclaim 1576.96.
$DOGE is at 0.09361, sentiment-driven clearly, still oscillating within the range. 0.09221 is the short-term key level; losing it may lead to a drop toward 0.08397; only by holding above 0.10001 can a rebound be considered valid.
SKHYNIX is at 1301, pulling back to the 1281 support level. Breaking 1281 extends the downside; reclaiming 1351 will open upward potential.
When hot coins rise, the whole network talks about faith; during pullbacks, collective silence ensues. Stories can be heard, but positions must obey the market. Currently, small positions for trial and error with strict stop-losses are more suitable; if signals are unclear, staying out is also an option.
Will you trade with small positions or continue to watch?
Personal review only, not investment advice.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% #Bitcoin Weekly chart shows an interesting pattern — expanding triangle
The biggest feature of this pattern is that the oscillation range keeps getting larger, repeatedly stirring market sentiment back and forth.
Looking back at the 2022 trend, after the expanding triangle completed the chip turnover
At the position of the green arrow in the chart, it later broke through the previous historical highs.
Coming to 2026, the historical high ahead this time is around $120,000.
BTC is currently about $80,000.
If the historical pattern plays out again, 80k won’t be the highest point 👀
#BTCZEC finally hit breakeven after a month of waiting. Woke up to it around $1,380 after touching $1,690, while a whale reportedly closed a 20K+ coin long today.
That heavy sell-off may be adding to the panic—and could be an important warning sign for the current cycle.
#AMDWorldLabsAcquisition
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek
#USDieselExportCurbs The total market cap has dropped to 2.86 trillion, shrinking by 1.22%. Bitcoin is holding firm around 83,000, with the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations pressing down, and a $202 billion Treasury settlement hanging over until September 30, 2026. Geopolitical tensions combined with rapid deleveraging have clearly shaken market sentiment. WLD and DOT are falling badly, while XDC managed to rally against the trend through rotation. Just replaced a sound-activated light in corridor 3, now back to watching the market.
ETH current price is 2705.96. KDJ shows a golden cross, RSI is flat, and the liquidation map is straightforward: there is heavy long liquidation pressure around 2705, with the strong long liquidation zone between 2730 and 2750 above. The liquidation zone below can provide some support, but every step upward burns massive momentum, making the breakout extremely difficult.
In terms of trading, lightly buy on dips between 2685 and 2700, take profit at 2728, and set stop loss at 2672. Short directly on rebounds between 2730 and 2745, stop loss at 2760, target 2690. Avoid heavy positions until the range breaks; wait for the liquidation pressure to be absorbed before acting.
$ETH
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
@OKX星球 "$ZEC: Don't mistake someone else's unrealized gains for your own ticket"
That 123 million U unrealized gain in $ZEC is not a signal for you; it's a signboard hung by the old bulls. Their base position is at 1087, with hundreds of points of profit forming a moat, allowing them to attack or defend; if you chase the long now, you're just helping them carry the sedan chair. When the market shakes, you cut your principal, they cash out profits. So-called following the trend sometimes just means following someone else's selling rhythm. Don't be the bag holder, and don't be the cash-out tool. My move is simple: heavily short. Follow or not, it's up to you, but first see clearly who holds the chips. The market has risks; this is not investment advice.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 A wave of $XRP positive news is on the way: Evernorth's merger vote plan with Armada Acquisition Corp. II will take place on September 30, aiming to list XRP's treasury company on Nasdaq under the name XRPN. If all goes well, XRP could gain new stock financing and institutional exposure. Of course, passing the vote is just the first step; XRP won't immediately rise. We still need to watch four key points: the vote, listing, financing, and actual coin buying. $AAVE's recent momentum has clearly strengthened, with the price reaching around $168 at one point, and short-term funds continuously watching the breakout strength. Meanwhile, Aave V4's capital scale is rapidly growing; official risk assessment data from mid-September shows V4 deposits have risen to about $708M. Recently, V4 on Base has also advanced a market solution for tokenized US stocks as USDC loan collateral. 📍 Watch range: $158–$166 ⚡ First breakout level: $170 🚀 Confirmation level: $173–$175 🎯 Target 1: $178–$182 🎯 Target 2: $188–$192 🛡️ Pullback support: $150–$155 🛑 Risk defense: $138–$142 If the 4H chart can volume-wise hold steady at $173–$175, the short-term structure has a chance to extend beyond $180; but if the breakout fails and falls back below $158, caution is needed for a pullback after the rally. V4 expansion + capital growth + price breakout are making AAVE once again a key focus in the DeFi market.📊🔥 $AAVE #AAVE #DeFi #AaveV4 #Crypto #Altcoins$ICP, a veteran public chain undervalued area, is catching up with a rebound as funds withdraw from exchanges
ICP's gains are very impressive amid a market where most cryptocurrencies are declining.
Core market logic: sector rotation + capital digging into undervalued areas. It has risen 60.4% cumulatively over the past two months, outperforming BTC, ETH, and XRP over the last four weeks; current market cap is only $1.8 billion, making it a veteran infrastructure asset rediscovered by capital in this market cycle. Peers in the same sector: HBAR +27%, ALGO +14%, LINK +11%, showing collective sector rotation.
On-chain signals: Net outflows from exchanges have consistently exceeded inflows in recent weeks, indicating chips are moving from exchanges to on-chain wallets, with clear off-exchange accumulation characteristics.
Key price levels
✅ Support: psychological level at 3.0; 24h low at 2.90, a confirmed break below targets 2.6
⚠️ Resistance: current high at 3.32; a volume breakout above this points to 3.6–3.8. The market has started to fantasize about a $10 target in the long term, but the technical pattern shows a rising wedge, which inherently carries a risk of pullback, so blind optimism is unwarranted.
Trading strategy for this week
Overall market characterization: strong oscillation between 3.0 and 3.6
• Positioning strategy: can continue holding above 3.0; reduce positions if it falls below 2.90
• Breakout strategy: a volume-supported close above 3.32 targets 3.6The pot of water in the Middle East is boiling again. The US and Iran are conducting "remote negotiations" under Qatar's mediation, but Iran has issued a tough warning: if my oil can't get out, no one else can sell theirs. The Strait of Hormuz, a major artery for global oil transport, is hanging in the balance. Brent crude surged above $107, while US stocks and gold were hammered, with risk appetite clearly shrinking.
The most critical issue is the inflation chain: oil prices rise → inflation picks up → Fed rate hike expectations heat up, already priced in at 70%, and the Reserve Bank of Australia also directly raised rates by 25 basis points today. With money expected to become more expensive, risk assets are being drained.
In the crypto world, in one sentence: BTC is holding up. It has barely dropped around $83,034, but altcoins are suffering terribly—NEAR fell over 11% in one day, and SUI and ARB also retraced by eight or nine percent. What does this mean? Funds are not exiting the market; they are moving into BTC for shelter.
My judgment is clear: as long as the Hormuz powder keg doesn't cool down, risk-off sentiment will continue to suppress altcoins and support BTC. In the short term, don't catch the flying knives of altcoins; just focus on BTC, the anchor.
#原油供应扰动反复，油价高位波动
#美伊继续谈判，核问题与制裁成新焦点 $BTC $ETH $CL 🟢 $SUI: After a recent surge, volatility has clearly increased, and the latest round of pullbacks indicates rising risks of chasing highs. Given the significant prior gains, waiting for the price to stabilize again is more important than blindly chasing the rally. 🟡 $DASH: After a rapid rise, it has entered a cooling-off phase. In the short term, it is more important to observe whether the pullback can hold key support levels rather than directly chasing the next big bullish candle. Recently, volatility in the privacy coin sector has also noticeably increased. 🔵 $CRV: Compared to the first two, the trend is relatively stable, and the current area is attempting to establish support. As long as key support is not clearly broken, focus can be placed on volume and rebound strength. Meanwhile, $BTC remains an important directional indicator for the entire altcoin market. This week, the market will also pay attention to PCE, employment data, and $MU Micron earnings, as these macro and tech sector catalysts may further influence risk asset sentiment. ⚠️ Different charts, different rhythms, but the trading principle is consistent: Do not chase green candles, wait for pullback confirmation, and control position size and risk. #BTC #SUI #DASH #CRV #PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead #CryptoZEC dropped to 1400, why do I still dare to buy?
From 1683 to 1400, nearly 8% intraday, breaking MA5, MA10, and MA20, the market looks like it collapsed. The group chat is full of "ZEC is finished." But I think panic often pushes the price into the value zone.
1400 is a key level that was repeatedly held before. Whether it can hold today, no one can guarantee; but ZEC climbed from 300, and to sentence it to death just because of a sharp drop is too early.
The fundamentals haven't changed: Zcash ETF size broke $1 billion, with cumulative net inflows exceeding $300 million. On-chain, a whale spent $12.62 million buying 8,017 coins during the drop, averaging a position price of about 1622. Smart money acts during the dip, not just shouting slogans.
So while the whole network is bearish, I choose to be bearish but not short. It falls a bit, I buy a bit; falls again, I buy again. Bottom fishing is not about courage, it's a battle of position management and conviction.
I believe there is opportunity near 1400, but the market always carries risk. Not investment advice.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% "ZEC: Whale Trapped, Shorts Shouldn't Laugh Too Early"
A major ZEC whale holds 18,000 coins, opened at $1622, with a position worth about $28.77 million, currently floating at a loss of $1 million. This coin surged from $15 to four figures, driven by both faith and leveraged cliff-hanging.
Seeing the whale's situation, many have reversed to heavy short positions, causing a smooth short-term decline. But thinking calmly, everyone is watching the whale's losses—who can guarantee they won't be the next to have their position exposed?
The trend weakens, the narrative fades, and the $1622 cost may be trapped long-term; once funds counterattack, shorts will also be left hanging.
There's a saying in the futures market: "The bold survive, the timid starve." But there's a third outcome: first the bold survive, then starve. $ZEC
This week, focus on the Nonfarm Payrolls and Core PCE data.
Risk warning: Cryptocurrency trading is not legally protected, highly volatile, and this is only a market opinion, not investment advice. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #Anthropic招股书披露高增长与高亏损
Anthropic lost 42 billion last year, with 34 billion not spent.
▪️ Revenue in 2025 is projected at 4.6 billion, a 12-fold increase; operating loss expands from 2.98 billion to 8.06 billion
▪️ Of the 42 billion net loss, about 34 billion is non-cash accounting expense, from revaluation of convertible financing instruments
▪️ Computing power and infrastructure cost 7.33 billion, 1.6 times the revenue; in 2024 it is 6.6 times
▪️ Cloud and computing power purchase obligations for the coming years total 518 billion; cash plus short-term investments are 20.28 billion
The disagreement is not about how much it lost, but how much of the 42 billion actually flowed out of the books. Similar expenses for OpenAI last year were about 30 billion—each valuation increase results in a book loss. This is accounting, not operations.
What is truly locked in is the other end. The 34 billion ends up as shares, not cash, but the 518 billion purchase obligations must be paid regardless of revenue. And nearly a quarter of last year's revenue came from just two clients, with most major clients not signing long-term contracts.
Expenses are fixed, revenue is not.
Do you count this 34 billion as a loss, or as stock to be issued in the future?ETH is currently stuck in a narrow range between 2635–2721 waiting for direction, and this Wednesday's PCE and Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls happen to be the external triggers deciding which way it will break out. Transmission chain: long-term US Treasury yields → global liquidity marginal tightening or easing → risk appetite → high-beta assets like ETH. Its correlation with the Nasdaq is currently much higher than with gold, so don't consider it a safe-haven asset. Four scenarios and their implications for ETH: PCE cooling + moderate Nonfarm (no rush scenario): interest rate expectations ease, liquidity narrative returns, ETH is most likely to choose an upward direction at the 2,750 level, with greater elasticity than US stocks. PCE hot + strong Nonfarm (most hawkish scenario): high rates persist longer, risk assets first cut valuations, ETH's pullback depth could be the deepest, with 2,660 support needing close attention. PCE hot + weak Nonfarm (stagflation dilemma): the market is hardest to price, highest volatility but unclear direction—under this environment, sideways consolidation will likely continue, Bollinger Bands keep tightening, avoid opening positions in the middle range. PCE cold + weak Nonfarm (easing emergence): the most macro-friendly, but short-term beware of "sell the fact" style reverse volatility. Two practical reminders: price in Wednesday's PCE first, Friday's Nonfarm is a correction not a restart, don't treat the two events as independent gambles; the same data can trigger opposite reactions at different position levels, don't chase the first candlestick. The real independent variable for this ETH cycle is still the continuous inflow into spot ETFs + clearing of exchange-held tokens, macro is just an amplifier. So #美伊继续谈判，核问题与制裁成新焦点
$BTC $BZ $CL Recently, Qatar has led efforts to mediate a new round of indirect talks between the US and Iran. Market focus has gradually shifted from the earlier issue of Hormuz navigation to core points of contention such as Iran's nuclear program and adjustments to US sanctions, with the situation expected to fluctuate repeatedly.
Previously, there were market rumors that both sides might make concessions: the US might relax some sanctions depending on progress on Iran's nuclear issue, and Iran might adjust its uranium enrichment strategy. However, after the news surfaced, both US and Iranian officials quickly denied any compromise intentions, stating that no substantive terms have been agreed upon and significant differences remain.
Stimulated by rumors of easing tensions, international oil prices, which had surged over 4% earlier, quickly spiked and then fell back. WTI crude oil closed down 1.99%, Brent crude oil also retreated 1.27%, indicating a clear easing of commodity inflation pressures.
This is a rare macro positive for the crypto market. The core factors suppressing BTC's movement recently have been high oil prices and US Treasury yields—two major inflation shackles. Now that oil prices are loosening and inflation expectations are cooling, the urgency for the Federal Reserve to continue raising rates is greatly reduced, giving the pressured crypto sentiment some breathing room.
Currently, BTC is consolidating in the 83,500 range, with strong resistance around 85,000 in the short term and key support at 82,000. However, caution is needed as US-Iran talks remain full of uncertainties, with both sides' attitudes fluctuating unpredictably. The positive outlook is not stable, so blind chasing of highs should be avoided. Only if the talks yield substantive progress and oil prices continue to weaken will BTC have the momentum to break through the upper resistance level. BTC touched 84374 on Tuesday. After the deep dip to 82557 on Monday, this rebound's volume shrank by half, and the high point at 87399 wasn't even approached.
Yesterday's low was 82557, the high was 85000, and it closed at 83371. Today it opened around 83370, with a high of 84374 and a low of 82778. The current price is about 84106. Volume shrank from 589 million to between 246 and 256 million. There is some follow-through on the rebound, but no volume expansion.
The resistance above is still between 84374 and 85000, and only beyond that is 85200 to 87399. If 82778 breaks below, it’s likely to test 82557 first; if that level also fails, the short term may look for space down to 80588.
In the short term, watch if the current price around 84106 can hold. If it can’t, consider it as still digesting the drop from 87399 and don’t chase at this price. For those already holding, watch if the low of 82778 today can hold; if not, consider reducing positions. For those looking to buy the dip, wait to see if the rebound can surpass 84374 before considering, and don’t catch a falling knife mid-air. $BTC MVRV never dropped below 1 this cycle.
That matters.
$BTC built a major base without the usual capitulation signal.
The old bottom playbook failed.
The bottom is in.ETH touched 2735 on Tuesday, after the low of 2636 on Monday, the rebound volume is still there, but the high point at 2808 wasn't even touched.
Yesterday's low was 2636, the high was 2704, and it closed at 2678. Today it opened near 2678, reached a high of 2735, a low of 2652, and the current price is about 2712. Volume shrank from 458 million to between 197 and 211 million; the rebound has some followers but no expansion.
Resistance remains between 2735 and 2743 above; only above that is 2789 to 2808. If 2652 below breaks again, it’s easy to see 2636 first; if that level can't hold either, the short term will look for space around 2628.
In the short term, watch if the current price around 2712 can hold. If it can't hold, consider it as still digesting the drop from 2808, and don't chase at this price. For those already holding, watch if the low of 2652 today can hold; if not, reduce some positions. For those looking to buy the dip, wait to see if the rebound past 2735 fails before considering, don't catch a falling knife in mid-air. $ETH Any player still thinking about attacking on the seventy-first move has already lost on the timer.
The current $STRK board is a typical example of overextension. A 5.27% surge in 24 hours looks impressive but is actually a lone light piece deep in enemy territory, detached from the rear wing support. The short-term RSI has reached 71.0, clearly in the overbought zone; meanwhile, the long-term RSI is stuck at 57.0, indicating the overall structure hasn’t kept pace with this charge. The short-term heat is a false fire, and the mid-term structure has not shifted.
Looking at the Bollinger Bands: the short-term price position is at 94%, with only 0.2% space left to the upper band, meaning this piece has been pushed to the edge of the board. The mid-term is even more extreme, with the price position at 104%, while the upper band is at -0.3%—this means the price has pierced the upper band, a classic tactical boundary breach. Any piece that crosses the boundary will not continue pressing forward next; it will be forced to be exchanged.
My judgment: this is a textbook high-level rebound sell point.
Entry is set at 2.4% above the current price. Why not wait for a lower price? Because on the board, you want to give your opponent the illusion that they can advance further, and when they push their last pawn forward, that’s the moment to sacrifice and counterattack. This is the core logic of my order placement—not chasing shorts, but pulling back after a bull trap.
The first take-profit target is 5.9% below the current price, the second at 8.4% below, which is the necessary path back to the mid-term Bollinger middle band. The stop loss is set at 14.0% above the current price; if the price really rises to this level, it means the market has forced a strong upward change beyond my calculations, so I will decisively admit defeat and exit without hesitation.
📉 Short:
Entry: 0.03 (current price +2.4%)
Take Profit 1: 0.03 (-5.9%)
Take Profit 2: 0.03 (-8.4%)
Stop Loss: 0.04 (+14.0%)
What is the core of endgame thinking? It’s not winning every move, but keeping your exchange ratio positive. This time the risk-reward ratio is close to 1:1.7. Shorting an unconfirmed mid-term rebound in the overbought zone is a structure I have repeatedly verified on the board.
The bulls have pushed all their kingside pawns to the sixth rank; the next step is not a checkmate, but a collapse.SOL ground between 116 and 121 on Tuesday, then the rebound at 124.96 over the weekend was completely given back in two days.
Yesterday's low was 117.4, high 123.5, closing at 118.7. Today opened near 118.7, with a high of 120.8 and a low of 116.4, current price around 119.0. Volume shrank from 107 million to between 47 and 57 million, the rebound buying is not strong.
Resistance remains between 120.8 and 123.5, above that is 125.0 to 295.9. If 116.4 breaks below, it’s likely to first test 115.9; if that level also fails, short-term price may seek space down to 112.5.
Short-term focus is whether the current price around 119.0 can hold. If it can’t, treat it as still digesting the drop from 125, don’t chase at this price. Those already holding should watch if the low of 116.4 today can hold; if not, consider reducing positions. For those looking to buy on dips, wait to see if the pullback can break through 120.8 before considering, don’t catch a falling knife mid-air. $SOL "9.29: The Rebound Gives Way to the Bears"
On September 29, BTC fluctuated around 83000. After dropping from 85000 to 82600 on Monday, the Asian session only saw a narrow consolidation between 83100 and 83600. The resistance is not from a single candlestick but from the repeated failures to break through 85000 since the pullback from 87300, with bullish momentum continuously weakening. Coupled with high US Treasury yields, quarter-end, and data week, the cost-effectiveness of chasing longs is relatively low.
ETH is also weak, trading near 2680, with the 2636 low already tested in advance. Tonight's JOLTS and consumer confidence data, followed by tomorrow's PCE and GDP; if the data is hawkish, BTC may retest 82600 and open the 82000–81000 range.
Strategy: Short on rebounds, do not chase longs. BTC resistance at 84200–85000, target 82600–81000; ETH resistance at 2720–2780, target 2630–2550. If BTC breaks through 87300 with volume, exit short positions; do not stubbornly hold against the trend.
After tonight's data release, do you lean towards seeing 82000 first or directly challenging 85000? Personal record, not investment advice.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% "Waking Up to See Floating Losses Again"
The alarm rings, first I check my positions, and my heart sinks halfway. That short position on XDP turned out to be a mistake: I tried a 5U test position last night, it plunged 40% at the open, with a peak floating profit of 17U; I didn’t take profits and only exited when it retraced to 13U. At midnight, seeing it drop another 8%, I couldn’t resist shorting more, and now I’m at a 6U loss. I can only try to reduce costs bit by bit by day trading, and I hate myself for not sleeping.
I originally thought $ZEC’s bottom was 1530, but now it’s 1480. I added some this morning, waiting to break even. It’s a minor mainstream coin, so it shouldn’t collapse immediately.
SOON makes me want to bang my head. The short position is almost gone; yesterday it reversed against the trend with a V-shape rise, and fearing a new high, I almost fully closed out. If I had held on, it would be about 20U profit. When the market falls, SOON and ONE surge and then crash again, it’s so frustrating.
The only consolation is $XPL, which after adding shorts has a floating profit of 12U. I’ll watch for another day and exit if the trend looks wrong.
The market punishes the disobedient: when cautious, the moves are big; when greedy, the losses are deep. Today, I’ll control my impulses first.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 I really think this matter is quite controversial.
After Bitget was hacked, the hacker kept transferring the stolen assets.
Bitget later publicly called on THORChain, hoping they would block the hacker's address.
But THORChain refused.
Their reason was straightforward:
They can pause the system if there is a major problem across the entire network, but they don't want to create a "blacklist" just for one address.
What’s even more dramatic is that the hacker then used THORChain to swap about $6.3 million worth of ETH into BTC.
Both sides actually have valid points.
On one hand: knowing it's stolen money, why let it keep moving?
On the other hand: if today you can freeze assets just because "everyone thinks this address is suspicious," then who gets to decide this power in the future?
This might be the most troublesome part of decentralization.
Freedom and control are often truly a pair of contradictions.
If it were you, would you care more about "not freezing arbitrarily" or "being able to block stolen funds"?$AAVE counter-trend independent rally, funds flow directionally into DeFi sector amid widespread decline
Four major hardcore catalysts for AAVE, not just pure sentiment speculation
1. Aavenomics 3.0 deflation narrative upgrade: Founder signals that the new version will add a burn mechanism, combined with existing buyback and fee redirection, protocol revenue directly converts into token demand. The Aave Will Win proposal allocates 100% of accumulated protocol fees to AAVE holders.
2. Compliance risk relief: SEC-related guidelines clarify that buyback actions on operating networks do not constitute securities issuance, dispelling the market's biggest compliance concerns.
3. Whales continue accumulating: On-chain large holders' net buying volume reaches 16 times the normal level, continuously accumulating chips after breaking through the range.
4. RWA credit layer narrative takes shape: The protocol evolves towards tokenized asset credit infrastructure, deposit scale continues to expand, and GHO stablecoin business steadily grows.
Key price levels
✅ Intraday support: 145; this round trend starting low at 134.93
⚠️ Resistance points: Intraday high 150.27; 155.27 (September 23 high) is the core hurdle, after a volume breakout, look upwards to 160–165
This week's trading ideas
Overall weekly market characterization: 145–160 oscillation with a bullish bias
• Position strategy: Can continue holding above 145; if it effectively breaks below 145, prioritize reducing positions to avoid market drag
• Breakout strategy: Volume breakout above 155.27, target above is 165 $BTC before and after of both Price Action and Liquidations analyses since the Sunday update:
So far, it's going well. They took the stop-losses below the local support and we could be seeing the start of the new push to +$85k.
We can see more liquidations at $85.3k now 👀The facade of this building is still being tiled upwards, but the stress curve of the load-bearing wall has already triggered an alarm.
$STORJ has risen 3.08% in the past 24 hours, looking like it has added another layer, but as soon as you open the structural drawings, you will find: the long-term RSI is only 53.3, lying flat on the foundation elevation line without any movement; the short-term RSI has jumped to 67.5, approaching the overbought red line. This is a textbook case of "excessive self-weight of the upper structure without synchronous thickening of the foundation"—top-heavy and bottom-light, when wind load comes, this form cracks first.
The data from the Bollinger Bands is even more ruthless. The price is stuck dead against the inside of the short-term upper band, with only -0.1% margin left, position reading 105%; the mid-term is the same, only -0.3% away from the upper band, position reading 108%. This cantilever beam has already reached its limit, the anchorage end has no redundancy, while below to the lower Bollinger band there is still a +2.9% and +3.6% gap—that is not a safety cushion, that is a fall distance.
I never accept renderings; I only accept the foundation. The current 0.07 load-bearing surface is compressing every inch upwards with already exhausted tolerance, this is a typical case of late-stage additions crushing the original pile foundation. The cash flow did not reinforce the piles underneath, it only painted the exterior walls.
📉 Short:
Entry: $0.08 (current price +3.3%)
Take Profit 1: $0.07 (-6.2%)
Take Profit 2: $0.07 (-3.4%)
Stop Loss: $0.08 (+13.4%)
What structural engineers fear most is using decoration to cover up stress imbalance. The 3.08% increase over three days is just adding another coat of paint to a beam that is already overstressed.
A cantilever beam pushed to the upper band does not need anyone to push it; its own weight is its final dismantling plan. #storjchapter11BTC longs and shorts are undergoing a subtle shift.
What’s most notable today isn’t how much the price has dropped, but that positions are clearly shrinking.
In the past 24 hours, total open interest in BTC perpetual contracts fell by about 2.99%, down to approximately $35.04 billion. More importantly, among liquidations in the last 24 hours, longs accounted for 83%, about $31.5 million; shorts only about $6.58 million.
What does this indicate?
Simply put, longs are retreating more noticeably; both sides are deleveraging, but longs are under greater deleveraging pressure.
Interestingly, the market is not simply “shorts aggressively adding positions.” The total open interest itself is declining, showing funds are withdrawing from high-leverage speculation; yet the overall position structure still leans toward longs, with the latest long-to-short account ratio around 1.37:1. (Maketo)
Next, focus on two key levels.
On the upside, watch near $85,000. If the price approaches this again, observe whether longs add positions anew and whether shorts start covering.
On the downside, watch near $83,000, with further attention around $82,000. If the price touches these levels again and long positions continue to shrink rapidly, the market structure may shift again. (CryptoCompass)
What’s truly worth watching may not be whether BTC goes up or down next, but rather—when the price reaches these key levels again, which side moves their positions first? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $BTC Rising U.S. Treasury yields are adding pressure to risk assets, shifting attention from capital inflows toward macro conditions. ₿ $BTC : ~$83K, holding relatively firm. The $81.5K–$83K zone remains key. ♦️ $ETH : ~$2.67K, consolidating with selling pressure overhead. ☀️ $SOL : Down ~3%, with $115–$118 as an important zone. Below it, $100–$105 comes into focus. 🟢 $ZEC: Down sharply to ~$1,379 as leverage unwinds. With NFP and PCE data ahead, volatility could increase. Watch liquidity, yields anDOGE has been grinding between 0.092 and 0.095 on Tuesday, unable to reach 0.10 by the weekend, and no one even mentions the spike at 0.1059 anymore.
Yesterday's low was 0.0915, the high was 0.0978, and it closed at 0.0933. Today it opened around 0.0934, with a high of 0.0955 and a low of 0.0918, currently priced around 0.0947. Volume shrank from 62.91 million to between 18.75 and 21.35 million, showing weak rebound buying.
Resistance remains between 0.0955 and 0.0978, with further resistance at 0.1044 to 0.1059. If the price breaks below 0.0918, it’s likely to test 0.0915 first; if that level also fails, the short-term price may drop to 0.0856 to find support.
In the short term, watch if the current price around 0.0947 can hold. If it can’t, consider it as still digesting the drop from 0.1059 and avoid chasing at this price. For those already holding, watch if the low of 0.0918 today can hold; if not, consider reducing your position. For those looking to buy, wait to see if the price can break above 0.0955 before considering entry—don’t catch a falling knife in midair. $DOGE