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"BTC Investment Journal" Issue 9 | Weekly Report for September 5, 2026 — Focus: Bottom Range Position and Next Cycle Analysis
Statistics Date: September 5, 2026
BTC Price: Approximately $79,700–80,000
2025 High: Approximately $126,000
From Previous High: Approximately -36.7%
Most Important Change This Week: BTC has rapidly rebounded from around $63,000 in August to near $80,000. The bottom "price range" has not been broken, but the market has clearly moved out of the deepest panic zone. It now looks more like the "rebound confirmation phase after bottom formation" rather than a new round of deep bottom probing.
——
I. Core Conclusions This Week ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
1. Bottom Range: Still Valid, but the Focus Has Clearly Shifted Upward
Combining the 200-week moving average, MVRV, AHR999, SOPR, market sentiment, and historical cycle patterns:
- First Bottom Observation Zone: $62,000–68,000 → This is the most important long-term value area in this cycle.
- Second Bottom/Correction Support Zone: $68,000–74,000 → If further adjustments occur, this area is currently the most noteworthy support zone.
- Current $79,000–82,000: No longer an ideal "deep bottom buying zone," but rather a confirmation area after the bottom rebound.
The 200-week moving average is currently about $64,700, and BTC has risen approximately 23% above it, while historically the 200-week moving average has long served as an important bottom reference.The current AI U.S. stock market is in an "Autumn Volatility" phase — the industry fundamentals remain strong (earnings reports from Nvidia, Dell, etc. continue to exceed expectations, and AI capital expenditures are still expanding), but high valuations, crowded positions, rising interest rates, and midterm election uncertainties are suppressing the market.
The market's main theme is evolving from "sustained prosperity in computing power infrastructure" to a dual engine of "computing power + software application commercialization." Short-term trends depend on: ① the September FOMC interest rate statement;
② whether inflation and non-farm payroll data can create a resonance of "macro cooling + AI realization"; ③ the November midterm election results.
Most institutions believe the AI bull market is not over yet but has shifted from "broad rally" to a phase of "selecting individual stocks and focusing on earnings realization." $SNDK The biggest problem with Robinhood Chain right now has never been about not making money, but whether this money can be made sustainably. Let's first look at the most impressive data: on September 2, the chain's single-day revenue surged to $4.01 million, surpassing the combined total of Solana, Ethereum, BSC, and Base—14 times their total; on September 4, it even hit a new single-day revenue high of $6.12 million. The annualized revenue over the past seven days reached $1.1 billion. Having been online for only two months, its revenue has already crushed many established public chains. Sounds insanely impressive, right? But don't rush to praise it yet. Looking at the capital flow and user structure, it's a completely different picture: on September 4 alone, the chain saw a net outflow of over $21 million, with TVL only at $1.37 billion, down more than two-thirds from the peak of $4 billion in October last year; 92.9% of on-chain accounts have only interacted with Meme, and only 3.4% of users have used tokenized stocks. In other words, people come to this chain just to speculate on Meme, not to conduct serious financial business. What's even more concerning is that the Meme hype is clearly fading: as the Pons launchpad, which supports half of the chain's revenue, the token graduation rate dropped from 0.8% in July to 0.11% in early September. Out of 20,000 tokens issued in a single day, fewer than 20 survive, with most tokens going to zero upon launch; moreover, Robinhood Chain's 90-day full gas fee subsidy is set to expire at the end of September. The previously near-zero cost of issuing tokens that supported the issuance density is about to end Bitcoin and Ethereum pushed sharply higher ahead of the U.S. jobs report, with BTC briefly trading above $81K. Then the data hit. August NFP came in at 162K vs. roughly 56K expected, reigniting Fed rate-hike expectations and triggering a pullback below $80K. Now, I think the market has a higher probability of dipping further before attempting another sustained move higher. A $3K+ correction after BTC pushed toward $80K+ is not unusual. It can simply be a healthy reset after an aggressive move. FWeekend consolidation period, only coins with catalysts get attention, those without stories can only follow the market grind!
$BTC Strong non-farm payrolls pushed the rate hike probability back up, causing BTC to briefly drop below 80,000, but ETF funds have re-entered heavily, with recent single-day net inflows around $731 million. Macro factors are suppressing valuations while institutions are accumulating; BTC now looks like a tug-of-war between high interest rates and long-term allocation funds.
$RE Around 0.45 with shrinking volume, small-cap coins are easiest to be forgotten by funds during weekend low liquidity, with trading volume dropping from 7 million to 4 million indicating waning interest. Without continuous catalysts, such coins struggle to maintain heat; wait for the next news before considering, don’t chase now.
$SOL Still holding near $100, with a trading format upgrade on September 9 and Alpenglow at the end of the month as fundamental catalysts. On-chain activity has cooled but the developer ecosystem remains. Holding 98 is a strong consolidation; wait for BTC to stabilize before a second upward push.
ARB dropped 6% from 0.131 high, after a 49% weekly rise L2 needs to digest gains; Robinhood Chain narrative remains but short-term is overbought; BCH up 2.7% at 253, old coin catching up without new narrative; SNDK surged nearly 12% against the trend, AI is re-trading NAND and enterprise SSDs as scarce assets; MSTR weakened following BTC, essentially BTC with high leverage, it won’t rise without BTC stabilizing!
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% 📊 Data has already begun to diverge. On September 4, the US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net inflow of about $731 million, reaching a strong level for the year; meanwhile, the ETH spot ETF also recorded an inflow of about $141 million. But the issue is: capital entering Crypto does not mean it immediately flows into the entire Altcoin market. My view is that institutions are turning "buying Crypto" into a more granular asset allocation: BTC remains the core position, ETH and some major assets are starting to receive independent funding, while a large number of altcoins still lack sustained incremental capital. This is also why when BTC rises, many people wonder, "Why hasn't my altcoin moved yet?" — the market may be experiencing not a traditional full Altseason, but rather a layering of capital. Of course, this judgment could be wrong. If ETH, SOL, and other assets continue to see ETF net inflows while BTC's share begins to decline, capital diffusion is more likely to truly occur. So I want to discuss one question: Will the next phase of "Altseason" be a natural overflow of BTC funds, or must new institutional capital inflows appear first? #Crypto #Altcoin #OKXOrbit $BTC $ETH $SOL #HammackBacksHike #RobinhoodChainRevenue #BTCGoldRatioHigh decision. But please don't drag other people into the same hole. If you're going to defend a project, at least be honest and transparent about what you're defending. I've posted evidence and screenshots for the issues I've raised — including ecosystem projects disappearing, nodes leaving, exchange delistings, and concerns around project-side selling and exits. If all of these claims can be backed by actual records and on-chain or public evidence, then what exactly are the bulls still arguing abOKX ranks 84th, so why is ATS ranked 2nd?
If you only look at the OKX profit leaderboard, Valid-Launch-Monkey is not very prominent.
As of today's public data at 20:07:
OKX leaderboard rank: 84th
90-day cumulative profit: +5.26%
Public win rate: 61.11%
Public lead time: 553 days
But among the 100 public Lead Traders I track,
his ATS is 88.29, FORMAL, Confidence HIGH,
ranked 2nd in the official ATS.
The reason is not how much he earned in 90 days.
What I pay more attention to is:
The maximum drawdown in 90 days is only 2.22%.
Some make money through short-term bursts,
while others control drawdowns within a smaller range.
So I don’t just ask:
"How much did he earn?"
I want to ask:
"Is this profit stable?"
ATS is not a future profit prediction,
it just looks at profit, drawdown, duration, and data completeness together.
I don’t look for the person with the highest 90-day profit,
I want to track those who may last longer in the long term.
Data as of: 2026-09-05 20:10 (UTC+8)
Based solely on OKX public data, for research purposes only, not investment advice.Bitcoin and Ethereum pushed sharply higher ahead of the U.S. jobs report, with BTC briefly trading above $81K. Then the data hit. August NFP came in at 162K vs. roughly 56K expected, reigniting Fed rate-hike expectations and triggering a pullback below $80K. Now, I think the market has a higher probability of dipping further before attempting another sustained move higher. A $3K+ correction after BTC pushed toward $80K+ is not unusual. It can simply be a healthy reset after an aggressive move. F🔥 $BTC / $ETH / $SOL | WHAT ACTUALLY DRIVES THEM?
$BTC derives strength from monetary credibility.
$ETH derives strength from economic coordination — the more applications and assets use Ethereum, the more important its settlement layer becomes.
$SOL derives strength from execution — making high-frequency, low-cost on-chain activity practical at scale.
BTC is trusted.
ETH is utilized.
SOL is accelerated.
Different value engines. Same race: making blockchain useful beyond speculation. ⚡🧠 Trump wants to strike Iran while also aiming to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict— which should the crypto market listen to?
Trump has been busy lately, dropping two major moves in one day.
On September 4th, he declared at the White House: the US military "may soon" launch an attack on Iran's Fordow facility, "tracking all personnel movements and ready to act if things go wrong." Fordow is an underground nuclear site in Iran; if a strike happens, oil prices will surge directly, inflationary pressures will return, and expectations for rate hikes will intensify— a negative for crypto.
On the same day, he confirmed that envoy Whitaker and son-in-law Kushner will visit Moscow and Kyiv with a "peace plan" to end the war. If Russia and Ukraine truly cease fire, geopolitical risks will cool down, and risk appetite will rise— a positive for crypto.
One side ignites, the other extinguishes— which should the market heed?
My take: in the short term, watch Iran because oil prices are a real inflation variable; in the long term, watch Russia-Ukraine because peace expectations can boost overall risk appetite. But both are just disturbances; the core remains the Federal Reserve.
After nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations at 162,000, the probability of a September rate hike surged, and BTC fell from 82,000 to 79,000. At this level, bulls and bears are waiting for signals; geopolitical news will only amplify volatility, not change the direction.
Do you think Trump will really strike Iran or is it just talk? Place your bets in the comments. Tomorrow, I’ll track weekend capital flows— follow me to get the first updates.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC #Trump #IranSituation #RussiaUkrainePeace #MarketAnalysis
The above is market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. Every time I hear "Federal Reserve rate hike," two types of people appear online.
The first type:
"It's over! A global financial crisis is coming soon!"
The second type:
"Major opportunity! Hurry and buy the dip!"
These two voices are actually very eye-catching.
Because fear and sudden wealth are the two biggest traffic-driving emotions.
But reality is usually not so dramatic.
A Federal Reserve rate hike is not the end of the world.
A rate cut is not a wealth giveaway.
What it really changes is:
The price of money.
And after the price of money changes,
how stocks are valued,
how much houses are worth,
whether companies dare to borrow money,
whether investors are willing to take risks,
the direction of global capital flows,
all get recalculated accordingly.
So you will find:
Every time the Federal Reserve holds a meeting,
a dozen or so people sit in a conference room discussing a few decimal points,
the asset prices of billions of people worldwide tremble.
This is probably the most magical part of the modern financial world:
Some adjust by 0.25%, while some accounts fluctuate by 25%.
What ordinary people should really do is not panic when they see the words "rate hike," nor rush in to bet on the direction.
Instead, they should first figure out:
Where this 0.25% will actually make money flow.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% After the non-farm payrolls crushed liquidity expectations, real demand assets started moving independently!
$BTC is still fluctuating around 80,000 after a strong non-farm report. The macro pressure is real, but the spot ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $731 million, the largest since mid-January, indicating institutions are buying. Now, Bitcoin looks more like a tug-of-war between high interest rates and long-term allocation funds. Next week's CPI will be the real directional choice.
$RE is consolidating around 0.45. Small-cap coins are easiest to be controlled by funds when the market lacks direction. A volume of 7 million shows there is capital operating but it hasn't reached a breakout point yet. These coins lack fundamental support and rely purely on capital driving; they rise fast and fall fast, so don't treat short-term trades as long-term holds.
$ZEC broke through $1,000, making the privacy sector the strongest sub-sector in this cycle. ETF funds, spot demand, and short squeeze combined have exaggerated the speed of the rise. However, as derivatives volume and open interest grow simultaneously, it has moved from fundamental revaluation to a fundamental plus leverage phase, meaning volatility will only increase.
ETH remains a high-elasticity version of BTC, with ETF staking and corporate holdings continuously absorbing supply; when macro eases, elasticity expands. SOL is still holding near $100, with the September 9 trading format upgrade as a fundamental catalyst. MU rose 3.26%, with HBM core suppliers directly benefiting from AI server demand. AVGO is slightly up and stabilizing, supported by an AI revenue guidance of $58 billion!
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% My short got another lucky escape. Entry: $2,318 Current: ~$2,430 Unrealized loss: now around $110, down significantly from the worst point. But I’m not celebrating yet. Honestly, the position survived because macro gave me some breathing room — not because my short thesis was perfectly timed. The August U.S. jobs report changed the setup. Payrolls jumped 162K, well above expectations, while unemployment held at 4.1%. That pushed September Fed rate-hike expectations back toward roughly 60%, puttOne $BTC exchanges for 18 ounces of gold, BTC is outperforming gold
Just checked the data, the BTC to gold ratio has reached 18.17, a new high since January. One BTC can now be exchanged for 18 ounces of gold, with gold at $4430 per ounce, which converts to about $80,400 per BTC, roughly matching the current coin price.
Bitwise stated very clearly in their latest report: the correlation between BTC and gold has risen to a six-year high, while the correlation with the stock market has dropped to a one-year low. This is no coincidence. U.S. public debt has surpassed $40 trillion for the first time, the Treasury announced doubling the scale of bond buybacks, the dollar is weakening, and money is flowing directly into hard assets.
Interestingly, Jiang Zhuoer liquidated all his BTC around 82,000, saying he is looking for opportunities between 70,000 and 72,000. On one side, institutions treat BTC as "digital gold" for allocation, on the other, major miners are cashing out at high levels. Same price, different judgments.
BTC is transitioning from a risk asset to a hard asset, but at the 80,000 level, there is still significant disagreement between bulls and bears.
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ 🚨 $BTC TAKES A HIT AFTER NFP
Bitcoin briefly broke above $81K, but quickly reversed toward $79.2K after the U.S. jobs data.
August payrolls came in at 162K, far above the expected 56K.
The 10Y Treasury yield also jumped toward 4.80%, reviving concerns around higher rates in September.
The macro pressure is real. 📉
#HammackBacksHike #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC The market is starting to distinguish between "real logic" and "liquidity eating," with regulatory negative news directly crashing electric vehicles!
$BTC The strong non-farm payrolls pushed the rate hike probability back up, causing Bitcoin to briefly drop below 80,000, but ETF funds have re-entered in large amounts, with a recent single-day net inflow of about $731 million. This combination is very interesting: macro is suppressing valuations, but institutions are buying, so BTC now looks more like a tug-of-war between high interest rates and long-term allocation funds.
$RE Consolidating around 0.45, small-cap coins are easiest to be controlled by funds when the market has no direction. A volume of 7 million indicates funds are operating but it hasn't reached a breakout point yet. These coins lack fundamental support and rely purely on capital driving; they rise fast and fall fast, so don't treat short-term trades as long-term holds.
$XRP Down 1% to 1.40, regulatory positives remain but need short-term digestion. After falling from the 1.46 high, funds have withdrawn from the leading rally coins and shifted to low-position coins. This wave for XRP is a regulatory-driven independent rally; the mid-to-long-term logic remains intact but short-term consolidation is needed. Holding 1.35 means strong consolidation.
DOGE continues to drift down at 0.084, meme sentiment is fading with no new catalysts; ARB retraced from highs at 0.131, L2 gains were too fast and need digestion; SNDK rose nearly 12% against the trend, AI is re-trading NAND and enterprise SSDs as scarce assets; TSLA dropped 4.6% intraday to 359, autonomous driving faces regulatory scrutiny, Cybercab honeymoon period is over, don't rush to bottom-fish on regulatory negatives!
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% Now 1 BTC can already be exchanged for more than 18 ounces of gold.
And this is the highest level since January this year.
Gold is rising, BTC is also rising, but this time, BTC is starting to run faster than gold.
This is quite interesting.
Because in the past, the market viewed BTC as:
Liquidity comes, it rises.
Risk comes, it drops first.
But now more and more people are starting to price it with a different logic.
Debt is increasing.
Currency is becoming easier to dilute.
So how much is the money in hand really worth?
Gold's answer is: buy physical assets.
BTC's answer is: buy a digital asset with limited supply.
So you will find that the correlation between BTC and gold has also risen to the highest level since 2020 recently.
Of course, don't rush to call it "digital gold."
When prices rise, everyone likes to find grand narratives for BTC. The real test is whether it can hold up like gold when a crisis actually comes.
$BTC $XAU $XAU gold has really been on a roller coaster lately. First, Wash's hawkish speech pushed rate hike expectations down to 4288, then the Fed suddenly turned dovish and pulled it back above 4500. But once the non-farm payroll data came out, it got hammered back near 4365, and now it's hovering around 4435.
Basically, it's moving as predicted on Wednesday. The Friday non-farm data "exploding" was unexpected, so the price dropped nearly 100 points as soon as the data was released. I don't really trust this data; it feels like it was fabricated just to cause a drop. I bottom-fished a bit on Friday, but the risk was high, so I just played around and watched.
On the news front, the market is focused on two things: first, the CPI on September 11. If inflation doesn't come down, rate hike expectations will rise again, and gold will get hammered; second, the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran is supporting safe-haven demand, but rising oil prices are pushing inflation expectations higher, making gold's situation quite awkward.
Another news point to watch is the turning point in institutional funds. Deutsche Bank pointed out a turning point in gold spot funds, with hedge funds and asset management institutions accelerating their entry. This kind of major capital involvement usually provides strong mid-term support for gold prices.
From a technical perspective, 4300 is the short-term bottom line; breaking below that will trigger algorithmic selling and crash the market. On the upside, 4500 is a hurdle; only after surpassing it can we see 4700. The MACD is still below zero, so the bears haven't fully exited, but the downtrend is slowing.
Before the data release, it's likely to oscillate between 4300-4500, waiting for the CPI to set the direction.
The above is just my personal opinion for reference.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 Gold has been doing the “safe haven” job for generations. Bitcoin has only been around for a fraction of that time.
Yet the BTC to gold ratio moving higher again shows just how quickly that relationship is evolving.
Personally, I don’t see this as Bitcoin replacing gold. I actually think the two can play very different roles. Gold still makes more sense to me when investors want stability and lower volatility, while BTC attracts people willing to accept much bigger price swings for potentially higher upside.
What interests me more is where new capital chooses to go.
If investors become worried about debt, inflation or currency debasement and increasingly choose BTC alongside or instead of gold, that would be a much bigger signal than the ratio simply hitting another high.
My view right now? Gold still wins on stability, but Bitcoin is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore as an alternative scarce asset.
#BTCGoldRatioHigh $BTC $Last night, US stocks, gold, and Bitcoin all plunged together. The Dow dropped, gold fell below $4,400, and Bitcoin instantly crashed from $81,600 to below $80,000. Right after the data was released, Trump just posted a message praising the August nonfarm payrolls as "very outstanding"—an increase of 162,000, while the expectation was only 56,000, nearly triple the forecast. Logically, with such a strong economy, the stock market should rise. So what happened? S&P 500 futures fell, the US dollar index surged to 99.93, and the CME FedWatch showed the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 50% to over 60%. Better data → stronger rate hike expectations → stock market falls. Trump's chain of logic was publicly torn apart by the market. His anger is justified—in his world, this system is broken. He wrote a passage on Truth Social worth reading word by word: "How crazy is this? We just released fantastic employment data, and the market should have gone up. But, as has happened for the past 25 years, the stock market fell because we live in a false reality: if things are good, you have to 'kill it' out of 'fear' of inflation. It should be the opposite, and it was so before 25 years ago." Then he concluded in all caps: "GROWTH DOES NOT CAUSE INFLATION!" He also said that US GDP growth "should have reached 15% and 20%, not 2%, 3%, and 4%." But this is not an economic discussion; it is election rhetoric. There are still notSanDisk surged 11.9% in one day, the "dark line" in the storage sector is even stronger than AI
SanDisk ($xSNDK) surged 11.9% in a single day to $1740, leading the entire storage sector to soar — but 99% of people didn’t understand the connection with the crypto world.
On September 4, SNDK closed at 1740, up 11.9%, making it the strongest performer in the US storage stocks that day; during the same period, SK Hynix rose 8.14%, Micron rose 6.10%. SanDisk climbed from 1536 on September 1 to 1740, a 13% increase in four days, clearly showing capital is rushing in.
The logic is simple: AI servers’ storage demand is structural, with HBM, DRAM, and NAND all tight. DDR5 24Gb mainstream spot price is $48, 1Tb QLC flash memory is $26.5, prices remain firm. As the NAND leader, SanDisk directly benefits from this AI infrastructure dividend. And SNDK, as a "crypto stock" with both US stock identity and crypto narrative, has recently been treated by capital as a dual beta for AI+crypto.
Significance for the crypto world: The simultaneous rise of the three storage giants indicates that AI capital expenditure stories are still accelerating, and risk appetite has not collapsed. With the strength of NVDA, SNDK, and MU, BTC and AI concept coins have macro-level confidence.Bitcoin ETFs have attracted funds for three consecutive weeks, with a single-week net inflow close to 1 billion USD.
Institutions are genuinely quietly accumulating this time.
But don’t rush to call a bull market yet; the cumulative net outflow for the year is still about 1 billion USD, indicating the previous dip hasn’t been fully recovered.
On Friday, it was mainly IBIT and FBTC holding the ground, while other ETFs basically stayed flat.
$ETH and $XRP funds have clearly cooled down, and the market’s current attitude is simple:
Buy $BTC first, altcoins line up.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 Sometimes copying ETFs is pretty good.
KORU is a triple-leveraged ETF long on the South Korean stock market, with the largest weighted components being storage giants like Samsung and SK Hynix, effectively giving triple leverage to the Korean storage sector. It rose 9.7% in the past 24 hours, with over $40 million in trading volume, which is not small.
Last night, the three major US stock indexes all fell, but storage chips went against the trend, with Micron alone rising 6%. AI servers have completely consumed storage capacity, driving up prices for DRAM and NAND, and even phones are following the price increases.
During the day, I was focused on a few US storage stocks and forgot there was such a leveraged product in Korea. By the time KORU appeared, most of the gains had already happened, and I missed out again.
This product had a nearly 20% single-day drop a few months ago and also a 15% single-day rise. Triple leverage has this temperament: when it's good, it's really good, but if you hit a single-day drawdown, holders can't even eat. For someone like me who can't hold positions, it's just for watching. 😂
#美光加码AI存储，十年研发投入100亿美元 Federal Reserve officials say rate hikes are necessary, with the probability for September rising to 58.6%
Whether the Fed will raise rates in September has become a key topic in the market again:
Rate hikes.
In August, nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, far exceeding market expectations, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. The labor market performance was clearly stronger than previous market concerns. After the nonfarm data release, the probability of a rate hike in September quickly rose above 50%, recently reaching about 58.6%. 
More importantly, hawkish voices have returned.
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester clearly stated that the current labor market remains stable, and given persistent inflationary pressures, now is the time to raise rates. She was also one of the officials supporting a rate hike at the July FOMC. 
This has led the market to recalculate the chain:
Nonfarm exceeds expectations → Employment is resilient → Fed has no reason to worry the economy can't handle rate hikes → Inflation becomes a bigger problem → Probability of a September rate hike rises.
This change is very important for BTC.
Because previously the market traded on the logic:
Weak employment → Fed shifts to easing → Liquidity improves → BTC benefits.
Now the logic is reversing:
Strong employment → Rate hike expectations heat up → US Treasury yields rise → Dollar gains support → Risk assets come under pressure.
So a short-term BTC surge followed by a pullback is not surprising.
But do not interpret the "58.6% rate hike probability" as "a rate hike is certain in September."
It is still a roughly even split with a hawkish tilt.
Why?
Because one crucial card has yet to be played:
August CPI.
Fed Governor Waller has previously stated that if inflation continues to cool in August, he leans toward keeping rates steady in September; if inflation heats up again, a rate hike will need to be considered.
So the current macro game is very clear:
Scenario one: Strong nonfarm + strong CPI
This is the most hawkish combination.
Strong employment + high inflation → the necessity for rate hikes clearly rises.
US Treasury yields and the dollar may continue to strengthen, increasing short-term pressure on BTC and gold.
Scenario two: Strong nonfarm + cooling CPI
This combination is less pessimistic.
Employment shows economic resilience, CPI indicates inflation is declining.
The Fed could then believe:
"The economy can withstand high rates, but inflation is cooling on its own."
In this case, the probability of a September rate hike might actually decline again.
Therefore, what truly matters now is not the 58.6% figure itself.
But whether this probability will continue to approach 70% or 80%.
If CPI data causes the rate hike probability to rise further, BTC must be cautious of the dollar and US Treasury yields rising in tandem.
But if CPI is clearly below expectations and the rate hike probability falls back below 50%, the previously suppressed BTC risk appetite could quickly recover.
In short: The 162,000 nonfarm payrolls broke the "US economy is weak" narrative, hawkish officials are calling for rate hikes again, and the September probability has risen back to 58.6%; but the final direction for BTC depends on whether next week's CPI can truly confirm this wave of rate hike expectations. $BTC #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% Robinhood
Recently, a contradictory market phenomenon has emerged: on-chain revenue data has surged, while on-exchange funds are quietly withdrawing.
The core contradiction of this public Chain right now is not whether transaction fees can be earned, but whether this impressive revenue has the confidence for long-term sustainability.
On September 2, the chain's single-day revenue once surged to $4.01 million, a very impressive report card. But just two trading days later, the situation reversed. On September 4, on-chain funds began a large-scale exodus, with a single-day net outflow exceeding $21 million. At the same time, the hype around on-chain Meme tokens is rapidly cooling down, and the market's speculative sentiment bonus is quickly dissipating.
This raises a question worth pondering: Is Robinhood Chain's explosive revenue coming from genuine, stable on-chain business demand, or is it merely a short-term bubble bonus fueled by Meme token speculation?
Once the Meme hype completely fades and on-chain activity declines accordingly, the widely discussed story of $100 million annualized revenue will struggle to hold ground, and the current valuation logic will face challenges. What needs to be closely observed going forward is whether this public Chain can continue to generate stable cash flow without relying on thematic hype after the speculative frenzy subsides.
#Robinhood链上收入创高，资金却转为净流出 Frequent Movement of Bitcoin by Long-Term Holders: The Truth Behind On-Chain Anomalies
On-chain data shows a sharp increase in activity from Bitcoin addresses holding coins for over 5 years, with the 90-day average spent output rising to about 1,500 BTC, roughly double that of May this year. Despite the significant rise in old coin activity, Bitcoin's price remains stable near the $80,000 high range, without sharp surges or drops.
It must be noted that "spent" on-chain only indicates asset location changes on the blockchain and does not equate to selling behavior. Analyst Darkfost suggests that old coin movements may stem from large holders changing custodians, address consolidation, or security upgrades.
One main cause of this round of on-chain anomalies was the Coldcard hardware wallet vulnerability incident in August. To avoid mnemonic phrase leakage risks, many users transferred assets to newly generated secure addresses, combined with attackers moving stolen funds, directly boosting on-chain activity. Therefore, without observing large-scale asset inflows to exchanges, this anomaly should not be directly interpreted as market sell pressure. $BTC $ETH #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #全球最大主权基金拟减持800亿美元美债 Strong non-farm payrolls are weighing on the index, but storage giant SanDisk surged nearly 12%😍, capital has already started voting with its feet: real shortages are tougher than macro factors!
#闪迪纳入标普100，下周迎首次定价
$BTC dropped below 80,000 again over the weekend, but spot ETFs have still accumulated about $3.8 billion in inflows over the past three weeks. It's not that institutions have withdrawn now, but interest rate expectations suddenly worsened, and short-term buying is suppressed by macro factors. If next week's CPI remains hot, BTC will still have to digest high interest rate valuations.
$ETH's biggest highlight is still on the supply side, with over 2 million tokens staked in the queue, while ETF funds continue to accumulate. ETH is more sensitive to liquidity than BTC, so the key now is not how much it rebounds, but whether these long-term locked tokens can continue to hedge against macro sell-offs.
$BICO is currently around $0.023, with low-level elasticity still present, but the previous exchange expansion dividend has been digested. Now it needs to be re-priced, relying on account abstraction business to bring users and revenue again; otherwise, it remains a typical small-cap sentiment play.
$OKB continues to watch whether X Layer's 19 RWA markets can generate trading volume; $QQQ is suppressed by high interest rates, but chips are clearly bucking the trend; the most noteworthy is storage😍! $SNDK surged nearly 12% on Friday, AI storage shortage logic is outweighing macro factors; $SKHYNIX also rose sharply the same day, with capital trading still focused on HBM and memory market conditions, not just simple rate cuts.
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ BNB current price 741–757 (9/5), monthly increase 21%, quarterly burn 1.32 billion, Grayscale fund allocation 30.6%, CME included in index, VanEck filed ETF—fundamentals are the strongest among platform tokens. But today's rise is a short squeeze with BTC, BNB ETF had zero inflow on the day, purely beta, not an independent catalyst.
Conclusion: can allocate, do not chase.
Pullback to 678–700 (20-day moving average) with low volume to stabilize for a low long position, stop loss at 640; volume breakout with real body above 755–770 to target 955 on the right side.
Single position should not exceed 10% of total holdings.
If 9/11 CPI is hotter than expected, even 700 will be hard to hold; waiting for data release is safer than chasing bullish candles.
DOJ investigation on Binance remains a single black swan event.
In short: BNB is worth accumulating, but chasing at 750 = paying a bailout fee to short squeezers. $BNB Brothers, I don't know if you're panicking, but honestly, I'm not very panicked.
To be honest, although my ZEC is stuck, I'm really not worried.
Why am I not worried? Let me share a few reasons with you.
Right now, there are a lot of positive news for ZEC, and its momentum is very strong, but precisely this is its first downside; it's too perfect.
$ZEC has surged from over 300 dollars all the way above 1000 dollars, up 88% in 30 days, and 2300% in the past year.
Grayscale ETF listing, privacy narrative explosion, AI scandals igniting the market, positive news one after another.
The daily RSI has soared to 78, overbought, and the hourly RSI once reached 92.82, entering a severe overbought zone.
Price is far above EMA20 and EMA50, with a large deviation.
So perfect that even a grandma would think it will make money.
At this point, I probably don't need to say more. When even a grandma thinks it will make money, it means losing money is not far off.
Looking deeper.
The core driving force of this ZEC wave is "short squeeze + sentiment," not a healthy bull market rising slowly.
In the past 24 hours, $36.6 million in leveraged positions were liquidated, of which $34.5 million were shorts. Shorts were precisely squeezed out, and the longs were fueled.
But contract trading volume is more than ten times that of spot, indicating this wave is mainly driven by leveraged positions. Once sentiment reverses, the stampede will be brutal.
Now about the whales.
There is a whale holding 230,100 ZEC, with a cost of about 60 dollars, bought last December.
They cashed out $22.61 million along the way, and still hold 230,100 ZEC, with unrealized profits of $126 million.
Do you think they will hold forever without selling? Or wait until you chase in and then slowly sell?
More importantly, the EU will ban exchange-traded privacy coins like Zcash starting July 10, 2027.
This bomb is still hanging over our heads. The market chooses to ignore it now, but what must come will come.
This ZEC has risen from 475 to 1000, more than doubling.
Daily overbought, contract market dominance, whale selling, regulatory bans—all signals say the same thing: things that are too perfect are often traps.
My short position near 936 is still open. How good is the risk-reward ratio to chase longs at this level?
You do the math yourselves.
$BTC
$ETH
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #Fed officials say rate hikes are necessary, September probability rises to 58.6%
Fed rate hike expectations soar! Market bulls and bears completely split
Recently, hawkish Fed officials have clearly stated: current rates are insufficient to curb inflation, further hikes are needed. Coupled with August's nonfarm payrolls significantly exceeding expectations, the market quickly raised bets, with the probability of a September hike rising to 58.6%. Citibank even pushed the rate cut timing directly to 2027, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged high-rate battle.
On the surface, the economy shows strong resilience and hot employment, giving the Fed confidence to continue tightening. Inflation stickiness remains, making a short-term rate hike reasonable.
But my core view: rate hikes are not set in stone; current risks far outweigh benefits.
Key concerns have emerged: August wage growth sharply declined, and real wage growth turned negative. Employment data is lagging, while declining purchasing power is a real leading signal. The negative effects of sustained high rates are slowly transmitting; continuing to hike now risks over-tightening, directly draining the economy and triggering subsequent recession risks.
Additionally, political pressure is clearly rising, with voices demanding rate cuts during the election cycle continuously pressuring the Fed, further limiting aggressive rate hike space.
The market is currently at a critical juncture, all eyes on the August CPI data on September 11.
If inflation remains high, rate hike expectations will continue to rise; if inflation falls, the Fed will most likely choose to pause and wait. $ETH $BTC A lot of shorts are already under serious pressure. After such an aggressive run, fear and FOMO are both starting to appear. Let’s simplify the situation. ZEC’s market cap is now around $17B, putting it firmly into large-cap altcoin territory. The recent rally isn’t just random speculation either. One of the biggest catalysts is institutional access. The major update is that Grayscale’s Zcash ETF, $ZCSH, started trading on NYSE Arca on August 25. As of September 3, the fund had roughly $415M in SanDisk enters the S&P 100, a ticket to a "core asset" Just saw a piece of news: SanDisk has been officially included in the S&P 100 index, effective September 21. #闪迪纳入标普100, next week will see its first pricing S&P 100, not the S&P 500, but the S&P 100. Only the 100 largest and most representative companies by market capitalization in the US stock market can enter. Along with it, Palo Alto Networks, Arista Networks, and Dell were added. Along with it, Nike, Colgate, Simon Properties, and Honeywell Aerospace were kicked out. This is a ticket to "core assets." Passive funds and ETFs tracking the S&P 100 must allocate SanDisk stock according to the required weights. On the day of the announcement, SanDisk surged 11.9% in a single day, closing at $1,740, with trading volume expanding to 16.48 million shares—more than double the previous days. Hedge funds had already increased SanDisk's holdings from 114 to 128 in Q2, with total holdings rising from 11.3 billion to 25.6 billion—more than doubling. But what I want to say is something else—SanDisk started at $237 this year, surged to a peak of 2354, then pulled back to around 1400, and now has pulled back to 1740. That's a sixfold increase in a year, then a 36% pullback, and then rebounding again. This isn't speculation by retail investors; it's institutions repeatedly pricing in the same question: how much is AI storage really worth? Fundamentals are also supporting this. In Q2 2026, SanDisk's revenue reached $8.97 billion, up year-on-yearChasing shorts gets blown up, chasing longs gets dumped. In the current market, doing nothing is actually the smartest move.
The most frustrating thing isn't a single-day 20% crash or a 15% surge, but the extreme tug-of-war of "missing the mark by a hair"—one step forward misses the target, one step back misses it too. A slow, dull cut to the meat is more mentally exhausting than a direct crash; manipulative whales rely on this to drive people crazy.
Originally bearish on BTC and ETH, BTC dropped nearly 40% from 126,000 to 79,500, and ETH was halved from 4,950 to 2,450. It all looked like a bear market bottoming. But the past week has brought too many variables: ETH showed resilience and even an independent rally, rising 35% in the past month, surpassing BTC's 28%. The ETH/BTC ratio saw its first golden cross since last July. The 76,000-78,000 range is the average cost line, and 69,500 is a strong support at the 200-day moving average. Both dips were bought back, bulls haven't surrendered.
But this area is the biggest trap: shorts who just opened positions got blown up by ETF inflows and short covering, with 260 million short contracts forcibly liquidated last week; longs who just entered hit the "old player supply wall" at 83,000-86,000, where 1.05 million coins have been held for over 6 months, plus the largest bullish options position at 80,000. Gamma hedging selling pressure repeatedly suppresses prices.
Don't trade just for the sake of trading without clear signals. Mature trading means knowing when to hold still and wait for the answers to be handed to you before acting. $BTC $ETH $SOL 以后你可能会在三个 Crypto App 里，同时看到 AAPL。 价格都跟着 Apple 走，看起来好像都是“链上 Apple 股票”。 但你真正买到的东西，可能完全不同。 一种只是跟踪 Apple 股价的衍生品。 一种背后真的 1:1 托管着 Apple 股票，但你本人并不是 Apple 股东。 还有一种更激进：Token 本身就是证券，并拥有真正的股东权利。 同样叫 Stock Token，“股票”两个字的含金量可能完全不同。 01｜最近三件事，刚好把这个问题同时推到了台前 Coinbase 正在推进 Equity Perpetual（股票永续合约）。 Robinhood 的 Stock Token，则因为 AMC CEO 公开反对，再次引发“这到底算不算股票”的争议。 另一边，LSEG 与 Kraken 母公司 Payward 正在推进英国上市股票 Tokenization，并探索更进一步的 Native Equity Token（原生股票代币）。 表面看，它们都在做同一件事： 把股票搬上链。 但仔细拆开，你会发现它们其实可能是三种完全不同的金融产品。 02｜第一种：你买的是股#特斯拉无人出租车发布不及预期，股价跌近6%
The boss has something to say
Tesla's driverless taxi launch flopped. On September 3, the stock once surged over 7% intraday as the market bet in advance. However, the launch event was not live-streamed, Elon Musk himself did not attend, and there was no information on pricing, production pace, or regulatory approval. On September 4, the stock dropped nearly 6 points directly.
What's more troublesome is that the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has already initiated a certification review. This vehicle has no steering wheel, brake pedal, or rearview mirrors, and Tesla wants to pass by claiming some safety standards do not apply. Whether this will succeed, no one knows now.
This drop reflects the gap between overblown expectations and reality. The market wants a solid product roadmap, but Tesla delivered an empty launch. Whether this decline will continue depends on the certification review and whether subsequent detailed information can fill the gap.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop-loss orders must be set properly. Good luck.The US CPI on September 11 and the Fed interest rate decision on September 16 will be very important catalysts next.
Currently, I assess the market as: NEUTRAL → SLIGHTLY BEARISH in the short term. Although institutional money has not disappeared. BTC and ETH ETFs have attracted a total of about 1.2 billion USD this week [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
SanDisk has been rising for so long, why hasn't it topped out yet?
Pharaoh says directly, SanDisk's surge from $1000 to over $1700 means the market is repricing it as a core AI infrastructure asset. Now, S&P Dow Jones has officially announced that on September 21, SanDisk will be included in the S&P 100 index, joining tech giants like Dell and Palo Alto Networks.
The S&P 100 is different from the Nasdaq 100; the Nasdaq 100 is the tech stock stronghold, while the S&P 100 represents the "core 100 companies of the US economy." SanDisk just entered the Nasdaq 100 in April, and now in September it joins the S&P 100—rising two tiers within half a year, from a "tech rising star" straight into the "core circle of the US economy."
The most practical impact is that passive funds will start buying. The S&P 100 is the benchmark for trillions of dollars in passive funds and ETFs, so inclusion means massive index funds must buy enough SanDisk shares before the effective date!
But Pharaoh must emphasize: passive funds' "clocking in" is mechanical, not a value judgment. There will indeed be buying pressure around the September 21 effective date, but if no new active funds take over afterward, a rise followed by a fall is a common scenario.
SanDisk stepping onto the S&P 100 stage essentially means the market is saying: storage is no longer just a chip cycle stock; it is a core asset of AI infrastructure. Making money is not about rushing; choosing the right direction is more important than timing perfectly. Good trades are made by waiting. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #闪迪纳入标普100，下周迎首次定价 #The Fed just got a stronger case for a hike.
August payrolls came in at 162K, far above expectations, while unemployment held at 4.1%.
The September hike odds jumped back toward 60%.
But the story isn't over.
Wage growth is cooling, and next week's CPI could still change everything before the Sep. 15–16 FOMC.
**If CPI comes hot, does $BTC face another selloff?#HammackBacksHike #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC The most dangerous thing in the crypto market right now is never the panic of a single-day 20% plunge, nor the frenzy of a single-day 15% surge, but rather that extreme tug-of-war where "the direction is about to emerge, yet it just misses the final step"—you might step forward and fall into a trap, or step back and miss out. This dull-knife cutting flesh type of market wears down the mentality more than a direct crash. I originally predicted that $BTC and $ETH would continue to weaken. After all, from a cycle perspective, Bitcoin has dropped nearly 40% from its all-time high of $126,000 on October last year to around $79,500 now, and Ethereum has been halved from $4,950 to $2,450. This looks more like the bottoming phase of the first year of a bear market rather than a signal of bull market acceleration. But the market in the past week has not given strong enough bearish confirmation signals and has even shown many unexpected variables. The most obvious is ETH's resilience, which has even subtly decoupled from BTC to form an independent trend: ETH has gained nearly 35% in the past month, far exceeding BTC's 28% rise in the same period. The ETH/BTC exchange rate has seen its first golden cross since July 2025, the open interest in futures markets continues to rise, and the annualized premium on short-term contracts has even reached 25%. Signs of institutional capital inflow are very clear—last week, BlackRock and Fidelity's ETH ETFs attracted $137 million in a single day, almost accounting for the entire market's net inflow into ETH ETFs. In contrast, $BTC, although bears have been active around the $80,000 mark Today's Market Analysis
Core News Events
The US August non-farm payroll data significantly exceeded market expectations, with an increase of 162,000 jobs compared to the expected 55,000. Employment data for the previous two months were also revised upward, indicating a labor market much hotter than anticipated. After the data release, the market repriced the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, sharply increasing the probability of a rate hike in September. US Treasury yields rose, the dollar strengthened, and risk assets collectively came under pressure.
Next, focus closely on next week's CPI inflation data. The inflation outcome will directly determine the final direction of the September policy meeting. The derivatives market saw large-scale long position liquidations, with over $295 million in long positions liquidated in a short time, causing leveraged funds to flee en masse.
BTC Market Analysis
In August, BTC surged to a high above 81,000. After the non-farm payroll data release, it directly fell below the 80,000 psychological level, hitting a low of 78,660, then slightly rebounded, oscillating between 78,600 and 80,000.
Although short-term macroeconomic headwinds have suppressed the upward momentum, institutional spot ETF funds have not shown sustained outflows. Institutional spot buying remains, providing mid-term bottom support for BTC.
Short-term outlook: Macro headwinds limit upside potential, institutional spot buying supports the lower base, entering a high-level range-bound oscillation with long and short positions repeatedly triggering leverage washouts, making it difficult to form a one-sided trend. Strong resistance lies between 81,000 and 82,000, with key support at 78,500. A break below this support would open the door to a deeper correction. The listing of Yushu Technology has directly impacted the traditional industrial robot and industrial control automation industries.
A large number of people around me who are earnestly working on PLCs, industrial automation, sensors, and designing industrial robotic arms with the world's top one or two performance indicators, spend their days in the lab debugging, exhausted like crazy, just to improve performance by 30% or reduce error by 30%.
Despite this, profit margins are very low, and financing is unlikely; they have basically become honest manufacturing workers.
Yushu Technology and a dozen or so large smart remote-controlled toy companies in China have precisely absorbed the money from these manufacturing industries into the pockets of primary market PEVCs. One company alone raised a total of hundreds of billions in pre-IPO funding, with other companies waiting in line.
This is simply because Yushu Technology appeared on the Spring Festival Gala, trended on Douyin, was praised in various ways, attended the Central Entrepreneurs Symposium, and received green lights all the way from the financial regulatory bureau and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology regarding its listing, causing other PEVCs to swarm in, aiming to create 20 more Wang Xings and Yushu Technologies to collectively reap profits.
This situation is very frightening because after this round of bubble burst and collapse, it will have consumed all the capital of high-end manufacturing in the primary market, making it extremely difficult for other honest industrial automation and robotic arm companies to secure financing. It is estimated that many companies will face life-or-death challenges.The US August nonfarm payroll data released last night significantly exceeded market expectations, with 162,000 new jobs added, causing interest rate markets to rapidly ramp up rate hike bets. This macro variable directly triggered a sharp reaction in the crypto market, with $BTC noticeably retreating from its highs, while storage stocks like $SNDK bucked the trend and strengthened, showing an intriguing divergence in capital flows. 🌪️ At this stage, macro data has regained control over market trends. The market logic this week is relatively clear: rate hike expectations will fluctuate repeatedly with various economic indicators, but the true decisive factor will be the CPI and PPI data to be released next week. Before this key inflation data lands, the market is unlikely to develop a clear one-sided trend. From the chart details, Bitcoin is digesting overbought pressure at high levels, with yesterday's price basically forming a short-term top area, and mainstream altcoins like $ZEC are also entering an adjustment phase. Meanwhile, the storage sector collectively surged last night, and related US stock targets may have room for catch-up gains and discount recovery. This round of correction may not be a bad thing. The rate hike is almost a certainty; if not in September, it will happen in October or November. If risks can be released early, the daily RSI indicator can exit the overbought zone faster, building a more solid foundation for subsequent moves. Institutional funds also show divergence: on the 2nd, there was a net inflow of $101 million, but on the 1st and 3rd, there were obvious outflows, indicating very rapid sentiment shifts. In terms of short-term technical levels, $78,000 forms a key 24h Market-Wide Volume: $98.5B Bitcoin walked into Friday looking strong. It had just cleared the $82,000 resistance zone on rising volume and traders were eyeing $85,000 as the next logical target. The mood across the board was Greed sentiment gauges were flashing confidence and altcoins were riding $BTC coattails higher. Then the jobs report landed. Act Two: The Shock August payrolls came in at 162,000 roughly five times the average pace of the prior year. In a market that had been pricing in 🚨$BTC $ETH: Will this bear market really "rhyme" with history?
More and more people recently have started comparing the current market to 2013–2015 and 2018–2020.
If it really follows a similar script, BTC may still have to go through several months of repeated bottom building, rebounds, pullbacks, and rebounds again. The market won't end abruptly but will continuously test bulls' patience.
ETH's risk might be even greater. 📉
If we compare it to the structural adjustment of 2018–2020, ETH could even face an extreme scenario of further decline, with some in the market targeting the $528–700 range.
But I want to emphasize: historical cycles are references, not scripts.
Now BTC already has ETFs and institutional funds involved, so the market structure is completely different from 2013 and 2018. We can't simply apply past declines directly to today.
So what I really focus on is not "whether ETH can drop to 528," but whether BTC can hold key structures, whether ETH/BTC can stop falling, and whether altcoin funds continue to drain.
📌 If these signals keep worsening, the bear market could last longer than expected.
Which cycle does the market want to replicate?
No one knows yet, but the price will ultimately give the answer.
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 Gold at 4437 USD, do you dare to short it?
First look at the surface: big bearish news, but no crash.
On Friday, the US August nonfarm payrolls recorded +162,000, while the market expected only 56,000, exceeding expectations by 3 times! The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. As soon as the data was released, gold prices instantly dropped over 2%, hitting a low of 4365. Then what? It bounced back, closing near 4430.
First point: Nonfarm payrolls are fierce, but gold didn’t die.
On September 4, the US Department of Labor released August nonfarm payrolls: an increase of 162,000, expected only 56,000, and the previous value was significantly revised upward. This data pushed the probability of a September 15-16 FOMC rate hike from 50% to 60%.
Once the news came out, gold was instantly hammered down over 2%, bottoming at 4365. The US dollar index surged to a two-month high, and the 10-year US Treasury yield soared.
Then what? Gold did not continue to collapse; instead, it bounced back from 4365 to 4437, recovering more than half of the losses.
Second point: Central banks are buying, institutions are watching, retail investors are panicking.
When the market was hammered on Friday, did you ever wonder who was buying at 4365?
The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 18 consecutive months; Turkey, Poland, and India are also buying. Goldman Sachs’ year-end target price is 4900, and the global central banks’ de-dollarization steps have never stopped.
Retail investors panic thinking "rate hikes mean gold is finished," while central banks quietly accumulate. A familiar recipe, a familiar taste.
Third point: Next week’s CPI is the real "life or death verdict."
September 10 PPI, September 11 core CPI. The market expects core monthly rate at 0.2%.
If CPI is below 0.2%: rate hike expectations cool down, gold will take off directly, target 4480-4530.
If CPI is above 0.2%: rate hike expectations surge to over 70%, gold will be hammered again short-term to 4365 or even 4282.
Fourth point: Technicals say — the bullish structure is not dead.
Daily chart: rebounded about 10% from the low in August, reaching a high of 4697. This week formed a higher low at 4282, on Friday it was hammered to 4365 but immediately bounced back, closing at 4430. Overall, it remains within the large range of 4282-4697, which is a strong correction, not a trend reversal.
Resistance above: 4480-4500 → 4536 (200-day moving average) → 4697 (August high)
Support below: 4400-4410 → 4365 (Friday low) → 4282 (key structure, breaking it would be troublesome)
Bull vs. bear, you decide
On one side:
Central banks have bought gold for 18 consecutive months, the de-dollarization logic is rock solid
Bounced back from 4365 to 4437 on Friday, strong buying support below
Higher low structure at 4282 intact, medium-term bias still bullish
Goldman Sachs year-end target 4900, rarely wrong historically
On the other side:
Nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations by 3 times, rate hike probability surged to 60%
If next week’s CPI is hot, September rate hike is basically certain
US dollar and US Treasury yields both strengthen
Resistance at 4480-4500 right overhead
Trading strategy
Conservative:
Wait for CPI data before acting:
If CPI is weak (below 0.2%): go long after a pullback to 4400-4410 stabilizes, target 4480-4530, stop loss 4360
If CPI is hot (above 0.2%): short on resistance at 4480-4500, target 4365-4280, stop loss 4530
Short-term traders:
Long: don’t chase below 4430, wait for pullback to 4410-4400 to stabilize, try light long positions, tight stop loss at 4360
Short: try shorting on a rally to 4470-4500 if momentum stalls, stop loss 4530
Medium-term traders:
As long as 4282 holds, buy on dips, target 4500-4700. If 4282 breaks, wait and watch, next support at 4200-4150.
Nonfarm payrolls didn’t kill gold; next week’s CPI is the real test —
99% of people see the nonfarm beat and think "gold is finished," but they don’t see central banks buying, strong buying at 4365, or the intact higher low structure at 4282.
The day 4480 breaks out, you’ll realize:
It’s not that gold is weak, it’s that you always cut losses at the lowest point when data crushes the market.
What is your gold cost?
At 4437, do you dare to bottom-fish?
$BTC $XAU $XAUT Recently, the market was happily discussing "when the interest rate cuts would start," but as soon as the August non-farm payroll data came out, it shattered everyone's illusions. Cleveland Fed President Hammack openly posted a tough message: the current interest rates are far from tight enough, inflation is still too high, and now is the time to raise rates! Once the news broke, the CME interest rate futures showed the probability of a September rate hike soaring to 58.6%, and Citibank pushed back its forecast for the first rate cut all the way to June 2027. Sorting through this mess of data, essentially three forces are clashing: 1. The non-farm payroll data is too strong, providing "ammunition" for the hawks. In August, the US added 162,000 jobs, far exceeding the previously low expectations. For hawkish officials in the Federal Reserve, this is a reassuring sign—since the labor market is so resilient, it means the economy hasn't collapsed, so continuing to raise rates to fight inflation carries no worries. 2. Macro data is severely fragmented; ordinary people are actually experiencing a "hidden decline." The data looks good but is structurally very awkward. Allianz's data shows that the annualized wage growth in August dropped to a low of 3.09%, and after deducting price increases, real wage growth has turned negative. In other words, people's incomes are not keeping up with rising prices, and purchasing power is shrinking. This leads to an extremely awkward situation: Trump is calling on the Fed to cut rates to save livelihoods, but Fed officials only see that "inflation has not yet been suppressed" Capital Is Not Leaving Crypto. It Is Choosing Where to Sit.
The most interesting signal in crypto right now is not whether $BTC goes up or down.
It is where institutional capital is choosing to sit.
Recent ETF data shows how quickly that preference can change. Bitcoin ETFs attracted strong inflows earlier this week, while previous sessions saw $ETH, $SOL and $XRP products attracting capital even as Bitcoin funds recorded outflows. ([turn0search19]turn0search19) ([turn0search18]turn0search📌 Sandisk confirmed to be included in the S&P 100 Index, effective September 21!
Starting next week, index funds will gradually begin rebalancing and pricing. After the announcement, Sandisk's stock price surged nearly 12% at one point, and the company also announced a $14 billion stock buyback plan.
Looking at the market, $BTC is currently around $79,663, with the overall market still in a high-level consolidation phase. The AI storage sector sentiment continues to spill over, and some computing power-related stocks have also been somewhat boosted.
📊 Market Consensus
Bullish views believe:
Inclusion in the S&P 100 is expected to bring substantial passive ETF capital allocation demand, coupled with the continuously growing storage demand in the AI era, Sandisk's stock price still has room for further upside.
The cautious camp reminds:
The stock price has already experienced a significant rise, and the market may have priced in this expectation in advance. After the news is fully realized, a short-term "buy the rumor, sell the fact" correction cannot be ruled out.
🔍 Underlying Logic
The core impact of index inclusion is essentially forced rebalancing by passive funds, which is more driven by short-term capital flows and does not imply a fundamental change in the company.
From a longer-term perspective, the stock price ultimately still needs fundamental support, with key focus on NAND flash price trends, actual fulfillment of AI enterprise orders, and future growth potential.
As for the crypto market, it currently reflects more of an emotional linkage. The strength of AI storage, computing power, and other tech sectors can improve risk appetite The ETF flows on September 3rd brought some different signals to the market. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $730.8 million that day, while the Ethereum ETF recorded $141.4 million, totaling about $872 million in a single day. On the surface, this is just a sum of numbers, but if we look over a longer period, institutional funds have almost exclusively favored Bitcoin in recent months. Now, Ethereum is starting to receive synchronized buying interest, and this change alone is worth slowing down to appreciate. 🌊 This may not be the prelude to an altcoin season, but rather a sign that institutional crypto allocations are actively broadening their boundaries. What really needs to be watched is whether Ethereum can sustain this momentum, and whether SOL, XRP, and BNB will see stronger relative demand as a result. Once funds are willing to continue moving down the risk curve, public chain tokens like SUI, APT, AVAX, NEAR, and SEI will gradually come into view; if DeFi assets such as AAVE, UNI, CRV, and PENDLE also experience sustained rather than sporadic buying, it would mean liquidity is truly flowing back into the on-chain ecosystem, which is far more significant than isolated price pumps. The infrastructure and tokenization directions represented by LINK and ONDO, as well as highly elastic AI concepts like TAO, RENDER, and FET, may also become subsequent rotation hubs. Just don’t forget, institutional buying of Bitcoin and Ethereum does not equal institutional buying of the entire crypto market. A more substantial signal is whether this capital can be smoothly deployed across sectors. If leading ETFs continue to attract funds while other assets start outperforming the market, we may well be standing at the start of a new cycle