tvbee
✦数据分析+宏观+投研 ✦人肉码字、人肉图表、非AI内容 ✦100%文章原创、拒绝人云亦云🦅 ✦PANews、Foresightnews、AIcoin等媒体专栏作者 ✦也是韭菜，分析能力大于交易水平，不撸毛
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Strange! Why is BTC falling? The ADP nonfarm employment data has declined for three consecutive months, falling short of expectations for three months in a row.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
The ADP nonfarm data was weaker than expected, with a forecast of 48,000 but an actual figure of 38,000.
The ADP nonfarm data has declined for three consecutive months and has been below expectations for three consecutive months.
The ADP nonfarm data is compiled by the market data company ADP, not the Department of Labor, nor an agency under Trump, so its credibility is still quite high.
Moreover, the trend of the ADP nonfarm data aligns with the trend of the Department of Labor's nonfarm data.
This is a resistance to the Fed's rate hikes, which is actually somewhat positive news. I don't understand why the market still fell at 8:30 PM.
Maybe it's sentiment. Brother Feng sold ETH at 2450 yesterday, but there are orders near 2350, which haven't been filled yet...
Robinhood chain is going crazy, funds are flowing in rapidly
#Robinhood链上交易激增，币股Meme成主角
In the past 30 days, $12.585 million USD has net flowed into the Robinhood chain via deBridge, averaging a daily net inflow of $419,500.
In the past 7 days, $5.035 million USD has net flowed into the Robinhood chain through deBridge, averaging a daily net inflow of $719,300.
On August 31 alone, $1.688 million USD net flowed into the Robinhood chain via deBridge in just one day.
Funds are accelerating into Robinhood!
According to deBridge data, among the funds flowing into the Robinhood chain, the largest source is Solana, followed by Ethereum, Arbitrum, Base, and BSC chains.
During this ecological transition, deBridge is quite useful, allowing you to cross-chain buy tokens on the Robinhood chain with just one step using funds from other chains, for example . You don't even need to prepare Gas on the Robinhood chain in advance.
Recommended to bookmark! When a chain suddenly explodes, you can quickly cross-chain buy coins and avoid missing the buying opportunity.
The biggest misunderstanding in Web3 history — MicroStrategy "buying high and selling low"?
MicroStrategy is not a reason for "selling low," as thoroughly analyzed in the previous article. This one talks about how MicroStrategy does not "buy high."
You have to know, MicroStrategy is not using deposits to buy BTC; it issues $MSTR to finance buying BTC.
When BTC is expensive, MSTR is also expensive. The higher the BTC price, the higher the MSTR premium, so issuing MSTR to buy BTC is actually more cost-effective!
At a low point, issuing 10,000 MSTR can only buy 14 BTC. At a high point, issuing 10,000 MSTR can buy 40 to 60 BTC.
Obviously, issuing MSTR to buy BTC at a high point is more cost-effective.
No wonder Saylor is a genius; SBF might never catch up in this lifetime. What MicroStrategy really wants is not just on-paper profit.
◆ For the corporate entity: Because MicroStrategy does not sell BTC at high prices, there is no distributable profit, so no traditional corporate income tax is due.
◆ For preferred shareholders: Preferred shareholders like $STRC also do not have to pay dividend withholding tax.
◆ For common shareholders: Although the company has no distributable profit and MSTR shareholders receive no dividends, they can still make money as BTC rises.
The result is a win-win-win! The only loser might be the U.S. Treasury, which collects less tax.
tvbee
Brothers!! I finally understand why MicroStrategy sold BTC at the bottom!
Damn, it's really damn!
Here's the deal: Brother Feng bought $STRC, then received dividends, which were $5.64 in half a month.
He holds 11.27581758 shares, each with a par value of $100.
The annualized yield is 5.64 / (11.27581758 * 100) * 24 = 12%.
This is the STRC dividend yield, and surprisingly, it doesn't incur tax on preferred stock dividends.
Brother Feng did some research and found out that according to US regulations, if a listed company has no distributable profits, then preferred stock dividends are not taxed!
When MicroStrategy sells BTC below cost, it results in realized losses, so preferred shareholders don't have to pay taxes at that time.
Now BTC has exceeded MicroStrategy's cost price, but even if MicroStrategy sells BTC now, the profits must first cover previous losses; only the remainder might be distributable profits. So even if MicroStrategy is profitable, as long as it doesn't sell much BTC, STRC shareholders can still avoid taxes and directly receive a 12% annualized yield.
Saylor was actually fighting for the interests of STRC shareholders, and the source of this benefit is not paid by $MSTR holders, nor borne by BTC holders, but by the US Treasury losing tax revenue.
At the same time, this also means that after MicroStrategy becomes profitable, the amount of BTC it is willing to sell is very small.
Doesn't it suddenly feel like double happiness?
With the midterm elections approaching, the US military strikes Iran again. Who gave Trump the courage? Liang Jingru?
Of course not!
┈➤ The US and Venezuela reach an oil agreement
◆ August 28: Trump announced an oil agreement with Venezuela.
◆ August 29-30: Venezuela disclosed more details of the agreement.
◆ August 30-31: The US military attacked Iran again.
┈➤ A decent agreement
This cooperation is between the US government and Venezuela's private company NABEP, which does not own oil fields but only has development rights.
In terms of shareholding, the US holds 35%, Venezuela holds 65%.
The US can purchase 20% of the oil production at cost price with priority.
Overall, Venezuela holds a higher equity share at 65%, while the US side has a higher oil production allocation right at 55%.
Therefore, Venezuela still retains sovereignty and control over oil resources. The US gains future crude oil supply.
┈➤ In conclusion
It is precisely because of this agreement that Trump has confidence. After the reconstruction of Venezuela's oil industry, crude oil production can increase and be exported to the US, which will help lower US oil prices.
Of course, rebuilding Venezuela's oil infrastructure, which has been idle for many years, also takes time. So in the short term, it at most soothes market sentiment. Trump is unlikely to take large-scale action against Iran in the short term. At least not before the midterm elections.
Has this wave of BTC's market ended?
┈➤ Perspective 1: Daily RSI Divergence
The daily-level RSI indeed shows divergence. See Figure 1.
During the surge in May, after the daily RSI14 divergence, there was a pullback, then it surged again.
So for the daily-level divergence, we saw BTC pull back to around 77,000. But the current divergence in the May surge does not yet indicate the market has ended.
┈➤ Perspective 2: USDT Capital Flow
As shown in Figure 2, the USDT market cap has generally been on an upward trend over the past week. It dropped after Wash's speech but quickly recovered.
Also, as shown in Figure 3, USDT has been fluctuating near 1 USD in the past week, with about half the time at a positive premium. It dropped after Wash's speech but soon returned near 1 USD, currently at 0.9999 USD.
There is no sign of capital outflow, indicating this wave may not be over yet.
┈➤ Perspective 3: Wash's Speech
Wash is still somewhat hawkish, but it doesn't necessarily mean an immediate rate hike.
The Federal Reserve must create expectations for rate hikes; no further analysis needed—simply put, it's to suppress the "wage-inflation" spiral.
Although CME interest rate futures show a 59.7% probability of a rate hike in September and a 40.3% chance of no change.
However, PM predicts a 51% chance of no rate change in September, as shown in Figure 4. So a September hike is not certain; Brother Feng's analysis is that there will be no hike.
Overall, this wave of BTC's market may not be over yet.
Brothers!! I finally understand why MicroStrategy sold BTC at the bottom!
Damn, it's really damn!
Here's the deal: Brother Feng bought $STRC, then received dividends, which were $5.64 in half a month.
He holds 11.27581758 shares, each with a par value of $100.
The annualized yield is 5.64 / (11.27581758 * 100) * 24 = 12%.
This is the STRC dividend yield, and surprisingly, it doesn't incur tax on preferred stock dividends.
Brother Feng did some research and found out that according to US regulations, if a listed company has no distributable profits, then preferred stock dividends are not taxed!
When MicroStrategy sells BTC below cost, it results in realized losses, so preferred shareholders don't have to pay taxes at that time.
Now BTC has exceeded MicroStrategy's cost price, but even if MicroStrategy sells BTC now, the profits must first cover previous losses; only the remainder might be distributable profits. So even if MicroStrategy is profitable, as long as it doesn't sell much BTC, STRC shareholders can still avoid taxes and directly receive a 12% annualized yield.
Saylor was actually fighting for the interests of STRC shareholders, and the source of this benefit is not paid by $MSTR holders, nor borne by BTC holders, but by the US Treasury losing tax revenue.
At the same time, this also means that after MicroStrategy becomes profitable, the amount of BTC it is willing to sell is very small.
Doesn't it suddenly feel like double happiness?
Are people in the crypto circle too optimistic? Too smart? Or too foolish?
CME interest rate futures show a 57.5% chance of a rate hike in September, but on Polymarket it's only 51%.
Is there any tool to scrape the data of these two probabilities? Feels like there's a trading opportunity here.
Brother Feng, based on his own analysis, bought $10 on no rate change in September! Lost too much before, now just playing around with the remaining money for fun.
Wash's speech leans hawkish, but we still believe there will be no rate hike in September
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
┈➤ Several reasons for no rate hike
First, Uncle Mao's view: High interest rates have little impact on AI and tech markets, but significantly negatively affect financing for real estate, retail, and other real economy sectors.
Second, Brother Bee's view: U.S. Treasury yields are not low; if rates continue to rise, the Treasury's financing costs will increase. Although the Fed is independent, it should still be mindful of U.S. debt risks.
Third, employment data: Nonfarm employment has been revised downward, showing a continuous declining trend, and recent data are negative.
Fourth, GDP growth is slowing. Q2's annualized quarterly GDP growth rate is lower than Q1's.
Fifth, U.S. stock growth is slowing. The stock market growth is slowing, even showing a slight downward trend. You can't still say rate hikes are suppressing the AI bubble, right?
Sixth, Brother Bee's "Yinmao" theory: Previously, Fed Board member Lisa D. Cook shifted from dovish to hawkish, and Trump once tried to fire her. While causality can't be confirmed, Trump's personality is well known. Surely, more than half of officials wouldn't insist on a rate hike before the midterm elections, right?
┈➤ Why is Wash so contradictory?
To guide market expectations. When the market expects a rate hike, it reduces the desire to raise wages, thereby preventing wage increases from exacerbating inflation—that is, suppressing the "wage-inflation" spiral.
┈➤ In conclusion
Hawkish remarks do not mean an imminent acceleration. Expectation management also plays a role in curbing inflation.
Currently, although conditions for a rate cut are absent, there are also insufficient conditions for a rate hike.
Cato_KT
Reestablishing the interest rate hike threshold + refusing to give the market a hawkish commitment, this is the theme of Powell's speech tonight
Resetting the threshold for rate hikes + refusing to give hawkish promises to the market—this is the theme of Wash's speech tonight. Although Wash did not lock in the probability of a September rate hike, he clearly told the market that current rates are not restrictive enough for financial markets, opening up the possibility of a rate hike, especially with the strengthening of the 2% inflation target, which deeply plunged the market into concerns about a rate hike in September. After Wash's speech, the CME swap rate showed a 45.7% chance of a rate hike in September, while traders assessed the probability of a rate hike at 50%! Actually, the core of Wash's speech tonight was still to keep interest rates high in the market. Although the probability of a rate hike in September has increased, I still don't think it will actually happen, because current rates don't affect tech stocks' financing. But for real estate, retail, and other real economy companies, high financing costs are fatal. The current crisis can still be delayed, and if rates continue, these companies will inevitably have to pay a heavy price. So, as I said before, Wash's attempt to guide the market to keep rates high is not only because the data itself lacks sufficient evidence for rate cuts, but more so because Wash's task force needs time to set up a new data mix to support rate cuts. Before the Wash's working group releases data, unless inflation continues to decline, Washey may really have to maintain a hawkish stance and keep the market high in interest rates. Of course, aside from Walsh's own monetary policy, market expectations remain valid. To lower rate hike expectations, aside from August inflation, employment, and economic data, the most direct factor is that energy prices can quickly return to normal. #沃什今晚亮相杰
Really speechless.
Waller's speech was hawkish, as expected.
The problem is that while he says he wants to reduce "forward guidance," he is actually implementing the very "forward guidance" he opposes...
Following his speech, the probability of a rate hike in September has again surpassed the probability of rates remaining unchanged.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
Brother Feng first sold the ETH spot he bought at 2500, still holding the ones bought at 2450.
BTC is at 80700, and there is quite a lot of pressure around 80800 with many concentrated sell orders. On Coinbase, there are 622 BTC sell orders below 808.
If it goes above this position, the next resistance level is around 82000, but currently, there are not many sell orders. There are about 200+ sell orders between 80800 and 82000.
Above 82000, looking at the depth chart for now, there are no concentrated sell orders.
