#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds

$BTC tonight at 8:30 is destined to be extraordinary! Because the non-farm payroll data will be released tonight, combined with Wash's recent remarks, the stance on whether to raise interest rates is ambiguous! Currently, 54% of the market believes a rate hike is possible! So this unresolved issue depends on tonight's non-farm data! $BTC has been fluctuating around 77,000 for 5 days, and whether it can continue to break through 82,000 depends on tonight's non-farm data!#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds

Friday's jobs report could reset the odds of a September Fed hike. The latest data set the stage. August ISM manufacturing PMI eased to 54.6 from 55.6, while July JOLTS openings came in at 7.27M. Factory growth is slowing, while price pressure remains elevated: prices paid held at 71.1, WTI closed above $90, and the 10-year Treasury yield touched 4.78%. Here's where things stand: · CME FedWatch puts September hike odds around two-thirds, up from roughly one-third before Jackson Hole · August NFP consensus is near +55K, though some estimates are closer to +65K, after July's -23K print · Unemployment is expected near 4.2%, with annual wage growth seen cooling toward 3.0% The headline alone will not settle it. The last report revised May and June payrolls down by a combined 103K, while July's lower unemployment rate coincided with 264K people leaving the labor force. Revisions and participation may matter as much as the print. Friday is only the first checkpoint. August CPI lands Sep 11, followed by the Sep 15-16 FOMC meeting and a fresh dot plot. Crypto is caught in the middle. BTC entered September near $78K after gaining about 25% in August and has held most of that rebound even as gold pulled back. ETF flows are split: · US spot BTC ETFs posted a $236.5M net outflow on Sep 1 · US spot Ether ETFs extended their inflow streak to 12 sessions, with the run totaling about $1.60B A strong jobs report would reinforce the case for a September hike. A weak one could pull the odds back, but CPI remains the final major checkpoint before the Fed decides. Which matters more for BTC over the next two weeks: jobs, inflation, or ETF flows? #NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds

$BTC SEPTEMBER STARTS WITH A MACRO TEST Bitcoin isn't struggling to find a direction because the market has forgotten how to move. It's because traders are waiting for answers. After the Jackson Hole remarks, expectations around September Fed policy shifted sharply. Now, this week's employment data could determine whether those expectations strengthen or begin to reverse. Several important releases are coming one after another: • JOLTS job openings • ADP employment • Initial jobless claims • Nonfarm payrolls Together, these numbers will give the market a clearer picture of whether the U.S. labor market remains resilient or is beginning to weaken. And that's where the real Bitcoin connection comes in. If employment remains stronger than expected, traders could interpret that as less urgency for easier monetary policy. That could mean: Stronger rate-hike expectations → higher Treasury yields → tighter financial conditions → more pressure on BTC and other risk assets. But if employment deteriorates meaningfully, the market could start pricing a softer Fed stance. The transmission could then move in the opposite direction: Weaker labor data → lower rate expectations → improving liquidity sentiment → potential recovery in risk assets. This is why I'm not putting too much weight on small intraday rebounds right now. A green candle before the data doesn't necessarily mean the market has turned bullish. A red candle doesn't necessarily mean the trend has collapsed. Both sides have a reason to remain cautious. Bulls don't want to chase into potentially hawkish data. Bears don't want to build oversized positions before a number that could completely change expectations. That creates the kind of environment where BTC can suddenly move hundreds or thousands of dollars without warning. And with leverage involved, those moves can become even more aggressive. For me, the priority right now is capital preservation. If you're working with limited capital, there is little benefit in going all in before a major macro catalyst.

US August ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 54.6 from 55.6 in July, still above 50. July JOLTS openings were 7.27M, below the 7.31M consensus but up from June's revised 7.18M. The data are mixed: factory momentum slowed, but labor demand has not collapsed. CME pricing puts the chance of a 25bp September hike near 66%-66.9%. August payrolls arrive Sep 4 at 12:30 UTC. For BTC and equities, the key is whether the report reprices the dollar, Treasury yields and risk appetite.#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds

August payrolls missed hard (38K), and hike odds went from 68-72% down to ~45% almost overnight. The NFP test I flagged actually broke the hawkish narrative, at least for now. Official BLS NFP still due Sept 4 that's the next real trigger. This is exactly why I don't call things settled before the data shows up.#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds

September Fed hike expectations have moved up quickly, but I don’t think the decision is settled yet. Right now, markets are pricing roughly a 70% chance of a September rate hike, after the Fed’s tone turned more hawkish around Jackson Hole. But we still have one very important piece of the puzzle coming: the August jobs report. This is where things get interesting for me. If NFP comes in stronger than expected and unemployment stays contained, it becomes much easier for the Fed to argue that the economy can handle another hike while inflation remains above target. But if hiring looks noticeably weaker, the conversation becomes more complicated fighting inflation is important, but the Fed also can’t completely ignore deterioration in the labor market. Personally, I think this NFP matters more than usual. I’m not only watching the headline jobs number; I’ll also be looking at unemployment and wage growth before deciding whether the report actually strengthens the hike case. #NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds $BTC

🚨 BTC ISN’T WAITING FOR THE NFP — THE MARKET IS ALREADY BRACING FOR THE FED’S NEXT MOVE. The panic is starting before the data even drops. Over the past few days, one thing has become clear: Traders aren’t really trading the Non-Farm Payrolls anymore. They’re trading their expectations of what the Fed will do after the numbers come out. #DailyOrbit

$BTC 9.1 Two nuclear-level bearish factors 1. The probability of a rate hike in September reaches 55%. Even if there is no hike in September, the probability of at least one rate hike this year is as high as 72%; 2. Even more bearish is the midterm election in November, with the Democrats having a 90% chance of taking the House of Representatives and a 50/50 chance in the Senate. At that time, crypto legislation will scrutiny.#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults

The closer to Nonfarm Payroll day, the greater the volatility $BTC repeatedly surged to 79000 $ETH is suppressed at 2500 Everything seems to be waiting for an outbreak Volatility has started to increase these past two days Firstly, the Middle East geopolitical issues, secondly Nonfarm Payroll and CPI The market believes that Walsh is "verbally tough, but dovish in action" It is highly likely that in September there#BroadcomDellAIResults #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation

WHAT THE DATA IS SAYING 👇 1. **Market Cap**: Rs 737.48T +1.85% Slow grind up. No euphoria yet. 2. **Turnover**: Rs 21.61T +20.99% Big jump. Means traders are active again after 2 weeks of chop. 3. **BTC Dominance**: 59.13% Alts still waiting. Capital concentrated in BTC. **Catalyst Watch:** US Non Farm Payrolls on Sep 4 Jobs data → Rate cut expectations → $BTC volatility Until NFP, expect range trading. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults