陈桂林谈交易
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The crypto circle's sentiment still relies on memes and altcoins. Even though Bitcoin hasn't yet firmly held above 80,000, just look at the billions of messages daily in various groups and communities, and the atmosphere on X filled with stories of altcoins skyrocketing and making people rich; right now, it's definitely a bull market!
Warnings about trivial risks and advising caution are things the market needs to do, but the blogger doing this just annoys people! Now it's time to charge! Charge! Charge! LFGGGGGGGGGGO!
The biggest taboo for traders is setting a FLAG, like posting that they've shorted, then sticking to the short position no matter what, insisting they were right, that their view was correct, and that they're awesome.
Having 800 ideas and directions in a day is normal, so I hope that if I suddenly pull out a bunch of long or short positions from my pants, you won't be surprised 😂
陈桂林谈交易
Withdrawing money seems to become a bit addictive once it becomes a habit. Last time I said I wouldn’t withdraw for now and set up a separate account to hold USDT, but I haven’t done that yet. For now, let’s consider this the last withdrawal wave.
1. For me, this is more like a physical control tool for opening trades. I withdraw some, trick myself into thinking the money is lost, and then when I see less money, I become more cautious when opening trades—especially when the market switches between simple and difficult conditions. In simple markets, you can play and earn easily, but once the market rhythm changes, what was earning can easily turn into losses;
2. What if that’s still not enough? Then bring out the ultimate weapon: an anti-addiction system. Don’t be overconfident about your gambling addiction; you must have a physical self-control mechanism because trading doesn’t support refunds for minors.
Chen Guilin's Trading Notes:
September 5, 2026
I. About Positions
1. Spot holdings remain fully intact, no changes: $CRCL (under 80) > $ETH (under 1600) > bitcoin:native (under 65000), nothing else;
2. The stopped positions are the tactical contract accounts. Backtesting shows August 24 was the peak profit point for my contract accounts, since then it has been fluctuating. Yesterday, I took a 4-day ETH position that instantly got stopped out at the original price, not counting the many small altcoins I opened (luckily I closed some before the non-farm payroll).
II. Views
1. In my opinion, Bitcoin at 82-83k should not be the top of this small cycle; 85-86k is more reasonable, based on several calculation angles;
2. According to this calculation, ETH is very likely to outperform Bitcoin next, and some altcoins will have a surge. Only then will this small cycle see a meaningful correction;
3. The cautious bias is because I think this is just a tail-end market;
4. From a longer-term perspective, Bitcoin at 100k is not a big challenge. We’ll talk when it really gets there. In this world, even the US president can act erratically every day, playing both sides, let alone the market. We can only watch and adapt as we go.
III. Psychological Game
Bitcoin is now at 80k. If it rises to 85k, missing the tactical position means missing out on 5k USD, which is no big deal;
If it rises to 90k, that’s beyond expectations, missing out on 10k USD, a serious mistake.
At this point, remind yourself that the tactical positions were leveraged 3-5X, and have already multiplied several times, so it’s still no big deal.
Withdrawing money seems to become a bit addictive once it becomes a habit. Last time I said I wouldn’t withdraw for now and set up a separate account to hold USDT, but I haven’t done that yet. For now, let’s consider this the last withdrawal wave.
1. For me, this is more like a physical control tool for opening trades. I withdraw some, trick myself into thinking the money is lost, and then when I see less money, I become more cautious when opening trades—especially when the market switches between simple and difficult conditions. In simple markets, you can play and earn easily, but once the market rhythm changes, what was earning can easily turn into losses;
2. What if that’s still not enough? Then bring out the ultimate weapon: an anti-addiction system. Don’t be overconfident about your gambling addiction; you must have a physical self-control mechanism because trading doesn’t support refunds for minors.
陈桂林谈交易
Today I cashed out a bit again, so living expenses should be covered for now; to be honest, if it were just me spending, I probably wouldn’t even spend 5000 yuan a month, since I only have two meals a day now, and breakfast is still bread, eggs, and milk;
Next, when it’s time to cash out again, I’ll transfer it to another account and forget about it as a risk reserve.
The money in the exchange will continue to be dynamically balanced between the spot and futures positions;
What is dynamic balance adjustment? Simply put, when the market moves, the flexible position aggressively increases leverage to try to outperform the spot position significantly; when the market is bad or my condition isn’t good, the flexible position plays it safe, the spot position holds steady, and then proportionally, the excess from the flexible position is used to buy spot.
In the 26-28 season, I plan to keep a large proportion in the flexible position, unlike previous seasons where I basically went all in on spot, since trading opportunities in the market have become more diversified now.
Honestly, what I teach you guys is the most practical stuff: regular cashing out, position allocation, trading mindset; I’m really not afraid of you learning...
Record, September 4, 2026.
Most of the time, as experienced traders, we can roughly judge the high-probability direction of a market trend, but the details of how it will move and the extent of its extremes cannot be precisely predicted;
BUT, what we can control is when and how we adjust our actions. Please check back on this post in a month.
陈桂林谈交易
Prepare for the contract cooldown period!
The mobile position can't be moved anymore!
The first spike, even if it doesn't mark the end of the trend, is a signal—it's a sign that we're entering difficulty mode;
What does difficulty mode mean? It means that in the previous easy mode, you could earn 12 cents with 80% effort, but in difficulty mode, you might lose 8 cents even with 120% effort.
Prepare for the contract cooldown period!
The mobile position can't be moved anymore!
The first spike, even if it doesn't mark the end of the trend, is a signal—it's a sign that we're entering difficulty mode;
What does difficulty mode mean? It means that in the previous easy mode, you could earn 12 cents with 80% effort, but in difficulty mode, you might lose 8 cents even with 120% effort.
In the AI era, it really feels like if you’re not paying attention, you’ll easily get left behind!
My daily routine now is still: checking X little bells, reviewing PR data, scanning geopolitical news, looking at K-lines. This whole process, including browsing and thinking, might take 1-2 hours, and I still might not cover all the information;
If this task is handed over to AI, it might only take 2 minutes? One minute to scan all the data you need, and the next minute, based on the data, it gives you different analyses and plans.
Tell me, how many traders like me, the old-school type, are still around?
Time to start learning, beginning with the #OKX Agent Trade Kit.
Mercy_okx
There is only one non-farm payroll result, but there is more than one trading approach.
Tonight, the market is almost evenly split. Agent Trade Kit helps you check events, perform backtesting, and confirm signals.
Spot trading, dollar-cost averaging, grid trading, dual currency wins, supporting different trading strategies.
My understanding of the #OKX Stock Toolbox is that it leaves the complexity of traditional finance in the background and delivers a simple trading experience to users 🫡
I remember in the last bull market, it seemed to be said by Lao Xu @star_okx, roughly meaning: OKX is not just going to be an exchange, that would be too shallow; OKX aims to be the infrastructure of the WEB3 industry;
From what I see now, it is being fulfilled step by step. You can play on whichever chain you like, but overall, the experience is best with me.
The crypto industry still needs companies that do real work like this to drive development.
OKX中文
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No need to withdraw or cross-chain, trade the hottest Meme coins with USDT/USDC inside the exchange with one click, supporting limit orders, take profit, and stop loss, making trading more relaxed.
Experience it now👉
The market has improved, and all the experts' posts have started to become passionate again.
What I want to say is, even though the bitcoin:native bear market has ended, the crypto space has already shifted from bear to bull market. We are just at the beginning of the bull market, and next comes the roaring big bull market!
However, please remember, the most casualties are not in the bear market, but in the bull market.
In every bull market cycle, Bitcoin will experience countless corrections: small ones around 10%-15%, medium ones about 20%, and large ones just over 30%. But that's not the main point. The key is that when Bitcoin undergoes corrections, especially large ones, altcoins really tend to die off!
The upcoming crypto battlefield will definitely test technical skills; those with good techniques can navigate the bull market smoothly, while those with weaker skills are very likely to drown.
In a bull market, you shouldn't relax and lie flat; instead, you need to work harder and be more cautious than in a bear market. After all, in a bear market, working hard might not yield much return, but in a bull market, working hard and doing it right often results in outsized rewards!
陈桂林谈交易
1. After thinking about it all day today, I’m going to temporarily avoid the mobile warehouse and hardware sectors. Right now, the position can only be considered average. The pattern looks to me like a bearish continuation no matter how I look at it. Considering its volatility, maybe I’ll wait for a chaotic asymmetric risk-reward opportunity (similar to the end of July) to take a spot position or try a low leverage trade; (see Figure 1)
2. Bitcoin continues to carve out 2023 (see Figure 2). If it performs well, after the next wave of rally, there will be a relatively deeper pullback, which will be a good entry point for those who missed out. Note the prerequisite: "If it performs well, there will be a small rally first, then a deeper pullback, followed by a big rally." As for what happens after that, it’s a more distant issue that needs to be observed as it unfolds.
The asymmetric opportunity in point 2 lies in Bitcoin leading the overall crypto market recovery. Adding some leverage safely to play some altcoins casually can easily outperform the combined gains of two Bitcoin rallies.