wesley教授
wesley教授
Founder of Block Infinity, Poker player, Trader, Chinese whale, @drhashclub
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The tech world is buzzing tonight: Huawei Mate90 debuts with a sensor-equipped modular camera, and HarmonyOS devices have surpassed 90 million. Domestic substitution and hardware independence—each narrative grander than the last.
A reminder to friends using leverage: no matter how big the narrative, it’s not a reason to trade tonight. Stories like "domestic substitution" and the "AI revolution" span decades and have basically nothing to do with whether you should open a position now or go long or short.
The market only recognizes two things—interest rates and liquidity. The 30-year US Treasury at 5.6% is fixed there; no matter how sexy the story, it has to clear this hurdle first. $BTC is grinding with low volume—not because the future is doubted, but because money is too expensive right now.
Don’t use a telescope to do the work of a microscope.
A piece of news easily overlooked actually reveals the toughest lesson in trading: South Korea announced today that it will allow analysts to "anonymously" publish research reports with "sell" recommendations.
Got it? In one market, even shouting "sell" has to be done behind the veil of anonymity to dare to say it. Bullish views follow the crowd and get likes from everyone; bearish views go against human nature, attracting criticism and responsibility.
This is the hardest part of short selling — the difficulty is never the technique, but that you have to stand alone against the entire market sentiment. Bulls huddle together for warmth, while bears have to weigh their words even before speaking.
At a position like $BTC, short selling this dish is not something everyone can swallow. First ask yourself: can you withstand being criticized?
Tonight, global stock markets are "fighting," and traders should look up: Australia's ASX 200 fell 1.8%, hitting a new low since mid-June, while European Stoxx and Germany's DAX futures are all turning green; but South Korea's KOSPI reversed and broke through 6900, rising nearly 1%.
On the same night, some are crashing while others are thriving. This shows that risk is never a simple switch—it's not just "the whole world taking risks together" or "all avoiding risk together."
So stop using the crude approach of "US stocks up = crypto up" to watch the market. $BTC is quietly hovering around 83,400 tonight, neither crashing nor surging; it has its own ledger. Which one are you watching?
The bulk market was quite lively tonight: Chile's copper production dropped 13% month-on-month, coinciding with a copper mine strike, triggering supply alarms for Q4; spot silver broke through $61 in one go. The commodity sector is all echoing the same word — inflation is still sticky.
Don't rush to treat this as risk-on. Put it together with the 30-year US Treasury yield at 5.6% (the highest since 2002), and it's two sides of the same coin: inflation not retreating → interest rates tightening → leverage funding costs sky-high.
Commodities rise on their own, while crypto's $BTC is still grinding with low volume around 83,000. Same macro environment, two different expressions. Which face do you trust more?
Kashkari added another blow tonight: inflation is still stuck at 3%, and he expects another rate hike this year and next year, specifically pointing out that this rise in bond yields is global, not just a US issue.
Translated into trader terms: the price of money is still going up. In such a tight interest rate environment, the first thing I do is not to guess the direction but to reduce leverage to the floor.
You can tell from my current position, I’m almost completely out of perpetuals, only keeping the leg I’m most confident in. $BTC has been grinding with low volume these past two days; the more this kind of market drags on, the more you have to endure without going full position. Are you holding full positions and toughing it out, or like me, mostly out?
People in the crypto circle might not have paid much attention: Google launched Gemini 4 Argon last night, focusing on complex reasoning and AI programming, with software engineering test scores soaring to 77.9%; on the same night, Anthropic's IPO filing mentioned that the model might exhibit "self-protective behavior and resistance to shutdown."
On one side, capabilities are skyrocketing; on the other, risks are being laid bare. The AI track is, in my opinion, one of the few stories in this round with real demand anchors, not just hype driven by sentiment.
But a reminder for traders: don't rush to treat AI's big news as a catalyst for the crypto market. Narratives are narratives, but what’s currently suppressing crypto is the hand of interest rates, not a lack of AI imagination. Distinguish what is truly driving prices so you don’t chase the wrong trend. Do you trust the AI narrative more, or do you first look down at the bond market? $BTC
A detail in last night's US stock market worth watching: the Dow fell 0.86%, while the Nasdaq actually closed up 0.24%. Two indexes fighting in the same market.
To translate: the money hasn't all fled; it's clustering around a few big players — tech giants are supporting the Nasdaq, while traditional heavyweight stocks are being pushed down by interest rates. The 30-year US Treasury yield remains above 5.5%, a high level. The logic for capital is simple: money is so expensive that it only pays a premium for the most certain growth; everything else is discounted.
What does this divergence mean for $BTC? Risk appetite hasn't fully recovered; it's structurally concentrated in a few selected assets. Don't assume risk-on is back just because the Nasdaq closed up; that's the red of survivors. How long do you think this clustering can hold?