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$SNDK SNDK 财报后高开低走，从 1426 一路砸到 1167，现价 1268，一夜跌了 12%。 昨晚还在 1483 欢呼的人，今天直接懵了——财报这么好，为什么跌成这样？
你被套了吗？
昨晚闪迪 Q4 财报全面超预期——营收 91 亿美元（预期 84-89 亿）、毛利率 83%（预期 79-81%）、NAND 供应短缺持续到 2027 年、宣布 150 亿回购 计划。华尔街集体上调目标价，Susquehanna 从 3250 上调至 3500 美元，高盛重申买入，Evercore 重申 3100 美元。但股价就是跌了——利好出尽，短期获利盘集体兑现。 从 993 到 1483，两周反弹了 49%，底部的获利盘在借财报利好出货。再加上大盘整体风偏不高，BTC 还在 64000 趴着，SNDK 想独立走牛没那么容易。这种走势是典型的 sell the news，不是基本面反转。
技术面怎么看？
上方 1300-1324 是第一阻力，收回 1300 才算企稳；下方 1167 是当前低点，跌破看 1130-1150。RSI6 42.26，从 79 超买区回落到中性偏弱——短期回调接近尾声。日线级别财报后放量下跌，需要时间消化，方向依然向上。
操作建议：
有仓位的：防守放 1160 下方，等反弹 1300-1320 再考虑减仓。不要在恐慌时割肉。
没上车的：回踩 1180-1200 可以接，止损 1150，目标 1300-1320。或者等放量站上 1300 再右侧进场。
核心结论： 财报炸裂但股价跌——这是短期资金行为，不是基本面问题。方向依然向上，华尔街目标价 3000+。 回调就是机会，但别一把梭哈，分批建仓。
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 How much longer will this rally last?
My 50 $ETH short positions are really too much to hold.
Average opening price is 1783.
Currently, the price is still around 1900.
The unrealized loss is already close to 6,000 USD.
The hardest part this time wasn't the constant price increase, but that every time it seemed about to go down, it was suddenly pulled back.
—
Looking at the one-hour chart, ETH did not immediately drop after surging to 1921.
Although it has fallen back below the short-term moving average, the price is still holding above the MA60 and MA120.
$BTC indicates that the pace of the rise has slowed.
But the trend has not truly reversed.
The firm upward signal I see now is that within an hour, the physical price will break above 1921, pullback near 1908 and hold, and then continue to break through 1936.
These three conditions indicate that 1900 is not the top, but rather a bullish turnover.
The rise may continue toward 1950 or even higher.
A firm downward signal is also simple.
It first broke below 1890.
It rebounded to around 1905 and couldn't recover.
He then lost the city in 1877.
Only by breaking out of this structure can my short positions truly find a turning point.
Just inserting a lower shadow—I can hardly believe it.
—
The biggest problem right now is actually not direction.
It's because my position size is already very low.
Forced liquidation price 1973.61.
It is now only about $72, which is less than 4%.
For every $10 increase of 50 ETH, the unrealized loss increases by about 500U.
Pushing back to 1936 already means a lot of pressure.
Near 1950, the account will be more passive.
So if prices keep rising, I won't be reckless with margin deposits.
1921 effectively broke out and reduced positions first.
If 1936 can still hold firm, then keep decreasing.
If you misjudge the direction, you can redo it.
If I really get hit by a needle and get forced into a forced liquidation, no matter how much it falls afterward, it won't affect me anymore.
Tonight at 20:30 Taipei time, there will be U.S. nonfarm payroll data, and it's easy for rapid insertion and false breakouts to occur before and after the data release. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has confirmed that the July employment report will be released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on August 7.
Currently, the average ETH funding rate across the network is still close to neutral, with no extreme long crowding, so we can't just judge "too many bulls" to make a sudden crash.
I'm still carrying this order.
But being firmly bearish doesn't mean betting on your account.
Going up further means reducing your position.
Survive first, then wait for a real correction.
#闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added
#Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC experience new growth? Five attempts at 65,000 on the big bough, I'm holding a short position waiting for tonight's non-farm payroll
$ETH long positions were closed yesterday. 1,857 entered, 1,906 exited, +142 U, 255% return.
On paper, I am a long, but now I am short $BTC, entering the market at 64,307.
MACD death cross, DIFF crossing below DEA, green bars enlarged. Previous low at 64,144.
Today, I touched 65,000 three times in one day, totaling five times. Every time, it would touch and fall off.
Why can't they go up, nor can they fall?
Because short positions are accumulating at 65,000. Touching up, dropping, touching again, falling again—the market keeps feeding the bears candy.
When everyone thinks "it can't go up," every time it hits 65,000, they blindly short it. At that point, the Bitcoin market will break through directly, pulling a single line above 66,000 and blowing up all the short positions.
If you can't get up, it's because they don't want you to leave. If it can't fall, it's because they want you to add to your position.
OI 31,720, no reduction in holdings, both longs and bears holding back.
ETH is holding steadily at 1,900; as long as ETH doesn't crash, it's unlikely for Bitcoin to drop sharply on its own. US stocks have also stabilized. If tonight's non-farm payrolls fall short of expectations, rate cut expectations will follow, and 65,000 will be just a blank slate.
I hold short positions, but I'm also afraid. I'm afraid of being like those two ETH trades—looking in the right direction but exiting early, watching the candlestick continue, which feels worse than losing money.
But this time is different. The stop-loss was set at 65,000, which means the judgment was wrong. Admit it. If you don't get it, you'll get the results.
Either expose me, or I expose the short position. Tonight at 8:30, the data will be announced.The short-term impact of nonfarm payrolls on risk appetite essentially transmits through the Fed's interest rate expectations and the dollar index. Nonfarms beating expectations will push up U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index, increasing the opportunity cost of high-risk zero-interest assets; If the data shock triggers recession fears, funds will prioritize safe havens to U.S. Treasuries and dollar cash, undermining the loose logic of U.S. stocks and high-risk assets. When data is mild but falls short of expectations and wages cool, a decline in U.S. Treasury yields will boost short-term rebound liquidity. The key point to watch for market failure is whether, within 15 minutes after the release, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and the dollar index will simultaneously rise to break through the stage high.
#特朗普代币遭参议员要求调查 #Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC experience new growth?The US Nonfarm Payrolls Report (NFP) and Bitcoin are not simply "good data = BTC rising," but rather a chain of Fed rate expectations → risk appetite → USD/Treasuries. Here is the core conclusion:
Strong nonfarm payrolls (better than expected) → short-term negative for BTC; Weak nonfarm payrolls (below expectations and not in recession) → short-term positive for BTC.
1. Transmission Mechanism (Why Does It Affect BTC)
Nonfarm payrolls are the core employment indicator in the Fed's dual targets (employment + inflation), with the chain as follows:
1. Nonfarm payrolls beat expectations (high new additions, falling unemployment, high hourly wages)
→ Strong economic resilience and high stickiness of inflation
→ The market lowers expectations for rate cuts and even bets on rate hikes or maintaining high rates
→ US Treasury yields rose, and the US Dollar Index DXY rose
→ BTC, as a zero-interest, high-risk asset, the opportunity cost of holding is rising, capital outflows → short-term pressure
2. Nonfarm payrolls falling short of expectations (fewer new additions, rising unemployment rate, moderate hourly wages)
→ Economic cooling and easing inflationary pressures
→ The market is betting on the Fed cutting rates early or multiple times
→ US Treasury yields fell, the dollar fell, and liquidity expectations were loose
→ Capital flows back into risky assets, BTC receives buying → short-term rebound
3. Key Exception—Data "Shock" to Recession Level
If the nonfarm payrolls are extremely poor + unemployment soars, the market shifts from "betting on rate cuts" to "fearing recession," then BTC will be smashed along with US stocks, because funds first flow into US Treasuries and US dollars in cash, and the logic of rate cut benefits fails. The September 2025 scenario of "new additions far below expectations + unemployment hitting a stage high" is a mixed-signal leveraged market.
4. Hourly wage growth often outpaces the number of heads
Even if new jobs are slightly low, as long as average hourly wages are high year-on-year or month-on-month, it can be interpreted as a "wage-price spiral" risk, which is also a hawkish negative factor; Conversely, if new jobs are good but wages are cooling, some of the negative factors can be offset.
2. Historical Reaction Samples (Fluctuation Scale Reference)
• June 2024: Nonfarm payrolls increased by 272,000 (expected 185,000), hourly wages also high→ Rate cut expectations sharply declined, BTC fell from 71,900 to 68,600, down over 4.5% in a single day, with about 150,000 people liquidated across the network.
• January 2025: $256,000 (expected $160,000) → USD surged, BTC posted a 5-minute drop of about 1.4% before a partial rebound.
• A weak nonfarm payroll in 2025 (57,000 new USD, far below expectations) → Rate cut expectations heat up, BTC rose about 4% that day, approaching 62,000.
• Statistical pattern: In the past 12 months, during the 7 post-24 hours after the non-farm payrolls, BTC had an average absolute fluctuation of about 4.2% (about 2.5% on weekdays). The probability of a false breakout 5–15 minutes after announcement was 60–70%, making leveraged trading most likely to be swept away at this time.
3. How to Analyze Practical Skills (Three Points to Avoid Pitfalls)
• Looking at the "expectation gap" is not absolute value: an increase of 200,000 is not strong; if the expectation is 220,000, it is weak; if the expectation is only 50,000 and the expectation is only 80,000, it is actually strong. Trading the market is about expectation spread.
• Watch two synchronized indicators: As soon as the data comes out, look at the DXY and 10-year US Treasury yields. These two directions are basically the opposite direction of BTC.
• Only focus on the short-term window: Nonfarm payrolls mainly drive volatility and sentiment in the minutes~hours after the announcement. Extending to weekly/monthly moving averages, BTC is still dominated by ETF fund flows, halving cycles, CPI, Fed rate decisions, and the overall liquidity environment. Don't use a single nonfarm payroll as a long-term basis.
Brief note: strong nonfarm payrolls → strong US dollar→ short BTC; Nonfarm payrolls → slow rate cuts→ BTC short-term long; Nonfarm payrolls collapse → recession panic→ BTC follows the decline; Expected → oscillation and other macro events. Before we have the most definitive millisecond-level live trading points at the bottom, we won't play out of thin air by applying formulas. But setting aside the minor short-term fluctuations of a few hundred dollars, the underlying logic of on-chain and macro trading has long been fully solidified at the massive turnover at $63,000.
With the weekly chart nearing its end, focusing on the massive migration of macro liquidity and the decisive battle for massive chips, today's in-depth observations and tactical deployments are as follows:
[Today's Market Watch: Weekly Closing Showdown!] $63,000 Massive Chip Dam Lake, US and Korean Tech Stocks and BTC Liquidity Relay]
1. On-chain structure: $63,000 accumulated with 1.15 million BTC, a historic token on the eve of a market change
1.15 million BTC accumulated: Over 1.15 million BTC accumulated at a unit price of $63,000, with a concentration as high as 13.5%. Although the Coldcard vulnerability has led to some on-chain transfers, it is by no means the main cause. The real reason is the intense trading of institutional funds and on-exchange accumulated funds under low volatility.
Energy accumulates to a critical point: chip density cannot expand infinitely; here, a massive liquidity black hole has formed. After a short-baiting leveraged wash targeting $63,500, the long-bear game has reached a critical point. Once the weekly chart direction is established, it triggers a highly explosive one-sided, one-way market.
2. Macroeconomics and Federal Reserve Rates: The "Liquidity Redirection" on the Eve of Rate Cuts
The Fed's rate cuts are irreversible: The Fed's tone to end rate hikes has been set, and the entire market is repricing in the arrival of an easing cycle.
US/South Korea tech stocks enter a "bubble de-bubble and digestion phase": The high-level fluctuations in the US AI chain and Korean semiconductor weights are essentially liquidation and portfolio adjustments of high-valuation profit-taking positions. Tech stocks have shifted from steep main rises to a "wide oscillation and earnings validation period," with overflowing funds from tech stocks at high levels seeking a highly elastic support pool for a new round of easing cycles.
3. Gold vs BTC: The "Gategate Relay" Between Defense and Highly Resilient Assets
Gold locks in "credit hedging": Gold remains firm at high levels, absorbing the most conservative de-dollarized safe-haven funds to fully hedge against the risk of fiat currency depreciation in purchasing power.
BTC becomes a highly elastic liquidity siphon pool: After solidifying a massive turnover base at $63,000, BTC demonstrates dual attributes of combining "digital gold" and "high-beta risk assets," making it the best allocation target for tech stock overflow.
4. Friday Weekly Chart Closing Practical Tactical Guide
Spot strategy: Stamina deadlock, bullish on the right
We firmly supported the low core bottom position profits at 58,000–59,000 yuan, firmly holding spot positions firmly.
Relying on the massive 1.15 million tokens around the $63,000 level, spot traders ignored short-term shakeout noise and waited patiently for a liquidity surge after the weekly close.
Contract strategy: Use 63,500 as a defensive pivot, lock in the main upward wave on the right side of 65,000
Defensive setup: Since a false breakout pullback has already been completed, the tactical defensive pivot is re-locked at $63,500 (the maximum stop loss can be set at the lower boundary of the $63,000 chip cluster at $62,800).
Deal follow-up:
Bargain Testing: If there is a shrinking pullback around the $63,500–$63,800 range during the week, it remains a golden position for low-leverage and longish trends.
Right-side breakout: Focus on the $65,000 above (daily EMA 50 resistance level). As long as the weekly/daily charts strongly reclaim 65,000 with volume, it will directly clear the trapped resistance above and initiate a main rally toward the $66,500–$68,000 range. $BTC #伊朗阿曼临时通航协议近落地
Iran and Oman have been leaking intensively this week, saying that the temporary navigation agreement is close to finalization.
According to details disclosed so far, two existing channels in the strait will be closed, replaced by a new temporary route passing through Iranian territorial waters. Ships entering the Persian Gulf would use the northern route controlled by Iran, while those departing would go via the southern route coordinated by Oman. Oman and Iran jointly enforce the plan, tentatively for two to four months.
But note, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ghaliba Badi made a crucial statement—this agreement has nothing to do with "immediate opening of the straits." Whether the strait is open depends on whether the U.S. can correct its "violations" and lift the blockade on Iranian ports.
On the other hand, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent said "the outcome could be revealed within 48 hours," and Rubio also said the negotiations "made progress." The two sides have completely different accounts. Iran is saying, "This is just a temporary arrangement with Oman, the US shouldn't get involved," while the US says, "We are involved, and an agreement can be reached soon."
The market actually believed it outright. Oil prices fell for three consecutive days, with Brent dropping to around $79 and WTI around $75. But Iran has made it very clear: opening the straits does not depend on the agreement itself, but on the U.S. making concessions first.
The agreement is really about to be signed, but landing is another matter. This round of oil price declines feels more like trading an expectation that hasn't happened yet. $CL $BZ $SNDK 闪迪第四财季交出历史级成绩单——营收、调整后毛利率、调整后EPS三项均超预期并刷新单季纪录，但FY2027 Q1营收指引下修约5.5%：中值105.5亿美元，不及一致预期的111.6亿美元，财报后股价一度跌8%。市场在为下修的指引定价。闪迪推进NBM长协模式，以低价换长期订单，代价是盈利上限受限，这个害无数人爆仓的玩意儿👿👿👿👿Fundamental Research Report $DYDX / dYdX (DeFi) $3.20
One-sentence conclusion: dYdX ($DYDX) overall score 51/100, rating. Narrative emphasizes practicality. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented.
Let's look at the project first: dYdX (token $DYDX), DeFi track. Focusing on decentralized perpetual contracts. Benchmarked against SNX and GMX. Traditional centralized platforms charge commissions of 15-40%, and user data is not autonomous. On-chain trustless transaction fees are lower, and token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average order value is $50-500/month, with settlement required in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven tracks, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioning the end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: The protocol layer is officially operational, and the on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
At the user level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24-hour transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users of natural persons; large large addresses holding concentrated positions tend to overestimate the actual number of users. On the revenue side, user fees are not disclosed. Supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (attributed to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $2.00M, token holders buy back and burn at an annualized rate, with no burn mechanism. 24-hour transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. A company making money does not mean the protocol makes money, and protocol profits do not equal token holders making money. On the code side, 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look to PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, use whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlocked contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level and do not represent long-term holdings of tech VCs; for technical integration, look to API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. The use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equate to NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not equal strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock is 2026-Q4 (+3.50% circulating), burn buyback annualized rate, no explicit buyback burn. Do you have to buy coins to use the product? Some require medium-value capture (staking/discounting/governance). Looking at it together with peers (unified caliber, no cross-sector random comparison): In terms of circulating market capitalization, dYdX $3.00B, SNX undisclosed, GMX undisclosed. For FDV, dYdX $4.20B, SNX undisclosed, GMX undisclosed. In terms of annualized revenue, dYdX $2.00M, SNX undisclosed, GMX undisclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, dYdX has not disclosed this, SNX has not disclosed, GMX has not disclosed it. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% off, oscillating within a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubling, burns landing, enterprise clients coming in, FDV corresponding to P/S, aligning with the top companies. In the end: solid fundamentals (score 51/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively high relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Risk warning: Short-term large-scale unlocking and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue wiping out, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives break off, usage collapses). Key points to look at next: protocol fee cycles, burn amounts, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, and GitHub version releases. Data is sourced from public sources and is for reference only, not constituting investment advice. If the indicator deviation exceeds 30%, a reassessment is required.
After the research report is finished, take a closer look.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbitThere has been new progress in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran and Oman have reached a phased agreement on new route arrangements. Although the final details have not yet been fully released, the market has already begun trading an expectation:
Global energy transportation has a chance to further return to normal.
My first reaction was not BTC.
It was crude oil.
If transportation risks in Hormuz continue to decline, oil prices are most likely to lose their previous safe-haven premium, which is likely to be bearish for crude oil in the short term. Conversely, gold may also weaken safe-haven buying as geological risks cool.
What about $BTC and $ETH?
I think the impact is actually quite positive.
As local risk eases, capital usually raises risk appetite again. As long as US stocks do not weaken significantly, BTC has a better chance of sustaining high volatility, while ETH, due to its greater liquidity flexibility, still has the potential to outperform BTC.
However, now is not the time to chase the highs.
What truly deserves attention is whether the agreement can ultimately be smoothly implemented and whether crude oil prices will continue to fall.
If oil prices fall, gold remains stable, and the Nasdaq continues to strengthen, the environment for risk assets will be much more comfortable.
I'd rather wait for a pullback to set up a position than rush in when emotions are at their hottest. #伊朗阿曼达成霍尔木兹航线协议 #原油 #bitcoin #Ethereum [Abstract] Using drawdowns, time, MVRV, NUPL, realized price, miner pressure, and ETF capital flows, the current cycles of 2018, 2022, and 2026 are compared. Key conclusion: Deep bearish characteristics have appeared, but the classic bottom signal is not yet complete. [Main Text] To get to the bottom line: Bitcoin in 2026 will already look like a bear market! Historical Data: In October 2025, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of about $126,000. By the end of June 2026, the lowest was close to $57,800, with a maximum drawdown of about 54%; As of August 7, the price was about $64,900, still about 48.6% below the peak. This decline is enough to create deep fear, but it is noticeably shallower than the roughly 83.6% in 2018 and about 77.5% in 2022. The timing is becoming more and more similar. In 2018 and 2022, the cycle rose from its peak to its final low for about 363 days and 376 days, respectively; The current cycle has been about 305 days since the peak in October 2025. In other words, the time window is approaching the historical bottom, but price and on-chain data are not yet fully in place. The most critical difference lies in on-chain costs. There are three common combinations at historical bear market bottoms: MVRV falling below 1, NUPL falling below 0, and spot prices falling below the realized price across the entire market. They do not simply represent poor sentiment, but rather the "average loss for holders as a whole." At the end of June 2026, MVRV was around 1.11, NUPL about 0.10; in late July, it returned to about 1.22 and 0.18. Reality$SOL **SOL Bearish on the sidelines, $72.8**
Down 2.4% in 24 hours, $72.7-74.5 fluctuated. MACD death cross -0.129, RSI 45.6 below the midline, 20-day and 50-day moving averages at $75.8 and 50-day at $76.3 both holding down overhead. A 10% drop over 30 days, this trend is hard to watch.
But don't rush to sentence him to death.
This week, whales secretly absorbed $17.4 million in SOL and withdrew from Kraken to release cold wallets. Western Union just launched its Solana payment system, covering 175 million Visa merchants across 37 countries—this is a real step in traditional finance. Weekly transaction volume just broke a record high of 1 billion, and it's not that there's no one using it on-chain.
Technically, a symmetrical triangle has converged since the beginning of the year, with $113 as the breakout target. But the premise is that you must first break through the $75-78 barrier.
**Vital Gate: $72**. If it breaks, it will slide directly to $68→$64. Only after breaking above $75 can you catch your breath; only after breaking through $78 can you claim a reversal.
Right now, it's just waiting to see the show—the fundamentals are improving, but the technical aspects are still being refined. Don't rush to copy; wait for the direction to emerge.Gold returns to 4200, why not follow $BTC? I choose to wait and see
It was truly outrageous. Gold surged back to 4200, while $BTC was lying on the floor, dropping only 0.63% in 24 hours, reaching a high of 65,000 and a low of 64,172, like a dead fish.
This wave of betrayal actually made me a bit uneasy 📰
I haven't opened a position at this level, just watching. The reason is simple—entering when the direction is unclear means paying fees to the exchange.
Gold and $BTC have always been somewhat interconnected, but this time the logic has completely changed. Gold is feeding on safe havens and expectations of rate cuts, $BTC is now about its own liquidity story.
🔴 Look at the transaction volume: in 24 hours, it was only 195.57M, a 52% decrease compared to the previous 24-hour period.
Without volume, any rebound is just a myth. And don't just look at the fact that prices haven't dropped much—they're already below the MA7 and MA30, and the short to medium term is bearish territory.
The Bollinger Bands have narrowed to 1.27% bandwidth, indicating the market is about to lose patience and choose a direction. RSI 36.48 is still in neutral territory, not oversold, so the real low may not be here.
#黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC risen in line with the rise? $BICO From last night to early this morning, there was a major surge. Yesterday morning, I wrote an article saying that I don't recommend shorting $BICO at that price yesterday. However, I don't know why I failed to control myself and shorted $BICO. If the margin hadn't been added in time, I might have been exposed. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. It can be seen that at 1 a.m. today, its open interest reached a peak, and the corresponding contract long-short ratio also hit a low point. After that, open interest declined and the long-short ratio increased. We can see that open interest has now dropped to a level similar to last night, and the long-short ratio has also risen to a similar level. Logically, this shouldn't be considered a short signal. But if we look at it in terms of price, we find something different. The price hasn't dropped to nearly the same level as last night, and after 1 a.m. today, it has been gradually rising. During the gradual rise, its contract long-short ratio has been steadily increasing, which is somewhat strange. My personal guess is that some shorts may have been liquidated. Short liquidation actually means the coin is about to reach its peak, because the purpose of a rally is to blow up the short position. With short positions liquidated, the market makers achieve their goal. —————————————————— I started work early yesterday and didn't know what was happening at the timeRecently, international oil prices have continued to rise, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has once again become a focal point for global capital markets. Many investors believe that rising oil prices are only positive for the energy sector, but in reality, every rapid increase in oil prices affects overall financial market liquidity, risk appetite, and Federal Reserve policy expectations. For the current market, oil prices are no longer just commodity prices; they have become a key variable determining global capital allocation. Why does rising oil prices affect the entire market? Crude oil is one of the most fundamental production factors in the global economy. When oil prices continue to rise, costs in transportation, manufacturing, aviation, logistics, and chemicals will increase simultaneously, squeezing corporate profit margins and potentially driving commodity prices up again. If this cost pressure continues to be transmitted, it means there is a risk of inflation rising again. For the Federal Reserve, the last thing they want to see is inflation rebounding. If energy prices continue to rise, the Fed may maintain its "high interest rates, longer duration" policy stance, or even delay the pace of rate cuts that the market expects. Therefore, the market is trading not only about oil prices, but also about future changes in global liquidity. What changes will liquidity be? The core of liquidity comes from two aspects: funding costs and risk appetite. If rising oil prices drive inflation expectations higher, US Treasury yields tend to rise in tandem, and the US dollar index may continue to strengthen. In this environment, global funds typically prioritize flowing into safe-haven assets such as the US dollar, U.S. Treasury bonds, and cash, rather than high-risk assets. That's all#黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC risen in line with the rise?
Gold rose to $4,200, while BTC was still hovering around $64,000, unable to keep up. The main reason is that the two are no longer considered the same asset class—BTC is now closer to US tech stocks, while gold is a true safe-haven asset, backed by central banks worldwide. On top of that, US institutional funds have been absent, ETF inflows are insufficient, and the market lacks a "big buyer" to break the deadlock.
$65,000 is the key level; only when volume breaks through can the market pick up; if not, keep grinding. Gold rising is gold's own business; BTC wants to keep up with the rise and is a catalyst in the crypto world.近期，美股三大指数在连续刷新历史新高后，开始进入震荡整理阶段。标普500指数和纳斯达克指数均出现一定幅度的技术性回调，不少投资者开始担心：这一轮牛市是否已经结束？ 从目前市场表现来看，答案或许是否定的。 这轮调整更像是上涨过程中的一次正常获利了结，而不是趋势反转。真正值得关注的，不是指数跌了多少，而是资金是否仍愿意在回调时重新进场。 为什么美股开始调整？ 任何一轮上涨行情，都不会一路直线上升。 经历连续数月上涨后，美股整体估值已经处于历史较高水平，部分科技龙头累计涨幅较大，市场自然存在兑现利润的需求。因此，近期回调更多属于资金主动降低仓位，而不是市场出现系统性风险。 除此之外，本轮调整还受到几个因素共同影响。 首先，国际油价反弹，市场开始重新关注能源价格上涨可能带来的通胀压力。 其次，美债收益率再次走高。债券收益率上涨意味着市场重新调整对美联储政策的预期，高估值成长股因此承受一定估值压力。 另外，财报季进入尾声后，市场开始从“看业绩”转向“看未来”。即使部分科技公司交出不错的财报，只要未来业绩指引略低于市场预期，股价依然可能出现调整。这说明资金对于估值的要求已经明显提高。 当前调整，更Is it really going to pull the market or not!
I've been carrying this order for a week now
Is there anyone around 1928 getting stuck?
50 ETH long positions are still available
Right now, all that's left is a decent bullish candlestick to save the day
Looking at today's Asian handicap,
South Korea's KOSPI nearly rises 1%
The Nikkei is also rising
Risk sentiment has indeed improved
But a rise in the stock market doesn't mean ETH will immediately follow
What truly decided the direction of tonight
Still the US non-farm payroll release at 20:30
The market currently expects about 88,000 new jobs
Unemployment rate remains at 4.2%
The data is weak
Expectations for rate hikes have cooled
ETH will have a chance to directly break through 1928
Strong data or continued hot salaries
US Treasury yields have risen
Or maybe it hits 1880 first.
ETH is not without positive news either
On August 5, the net inflow of US spot ETH ETFs was about $60.86 million
Of this, BlackRock's ETHA inflow was about $50.34 million
This indicates that institutional funds are still taking in near 1900
The problem now isn't that no one buys it
Instead, all the funds are waiting for the nonfarm payrolls to provide direction.
1880 to 1900 is short-term support
1928 happened to be my cost line
It was also the first layer of pressure
Regaining the footing of 1950
Only then would you be qualified to keep watching 2000
If the needle drops below 1880 tonight and then quickly pulls back,
On the contrary, it might be the last time the dog farm washes the bulls
But even after falling below 1850, it can't be recovered
This alone cannot be carried out by faith alone
——
$SNDK
SanDisk's financial report this time is not poor
It's that market expectations are simply too outrageous
Quarterly revenue and profit both exceeded expectations
Data center revenue grew by more than 100% year-on-year
However, the guidance for the next quarter did not meet the market's most optimistic expectations
The stock price once fell more than 10% in pre-market trading.
It ultimately closed down nearly 7%.
For the short term, let's see if it can hold around 1200
Holding it still gives you a chance to counterattack 1300
Climbing back above 1350
Only then can the gap left after the financial report be recovered
SanDisk's long-term logic hasn't completely broken down
But the previous price had risen too sharply
Now we've entered a stage where even the best performance has to find faults
——
$BEAT
BEAT is now clearly weaker than ETH
On August 1st, there was just a major round of token releases
The release scale accounted for about 6.9% of the market value at that time
In the following days, the largest drop exceeded 40%
The price also rose from around $4.59 on August 1
It fell back above $2.
2.3 Nearby is a short-term defensive position
If it can't hold, it's easy to continue searching for $2 support
Returning to 2.6 is just a stabilization
Only after breaking through $3 does it count as a true strengthening
What this coin fears most right now is not BTC falling
It's that trading volume can't keep up during rebounds
Continued decline to wear down the bulls
——
ETH is not completely unmovable
It feels more like waiting for the non-farm payroll to be fired tonight
1928: Once it breaks through and holds firm
With this trade, I have the chance to turn a breakeven into a profit
But the biggest risk of this trade is no longer bullish or bearish
Instead, 100x leverage leaves no room for error
Dog Village
I've been with you for a whole week
Tonight, either lift me back to the cost line
Or don't blame me for fighting you to the end
#闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added
#Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC experience new growth? Lurking in the mire of minus three degrees for twelve hours, frost on the eyelashes froze into ice, but the anemometer in the optical sight never lies—the airflow in the entire position was deflected violently in an instant. In a real hunting ground, the deadliest thing is never the roaring gunfire, but the moment when top hunters silently change magazines in the shadows. Italy's largest financial armored cluster—Intesa Sanpaolo—completed an extremely ruthless muzzle transfer after its second quarter position bunker.
Reviewing their ammo inventory list from the past quarter, the withdrawal from the BTC defensive line was nothing short of decisive. IBIT's spot holdings were cut from 646,809 shares to 40,723 shares, instantly draining 93.7% of their heavy firepower. This was an unconventional tactical dumping but a ruthless withdrawal of bombs. Even more chilling was their defensive deployment on the derivatives flank: 2.5 million IBIT call options were cut down to a meager 18,000 shares, while 500,000 put options were quickly loaded with air defense ammunition. In their wind gauges and ballistic calculators, the drag and downward pressure faced by BTC's high positions had reached critical levels; they would rather spend heavily to apply air defense put insurance than act as a human shield for high-level bulls.
The huge withdrawn funds have not yet been replenished; the barrels have quietly locked onto new targets. Their holdings in BlackRock's ETH staked spot ETF have nearly tripled from 116,200 shares to 349,600 shares. This is a heavy armor-piercing round with the attribute of "staking yields." For a positional sniper of this level, simply staking asset prices to surge is a rookie's move; During long-term ambushes, continuously replenishing ammo through staking, sustaining war through battle, is the top-tier disguise to maintain survival and strangulation power in the brutal hunting ground. They abandoned the false fire of BTC's high-level fluctuations and completely locked their position in ETH's yield fortress.
Once you see the trajectory of this heavily armored giant, the market linkage of US stock token $XAVGO becomes fully visible. As a sideways observation point for capital migration on the main battlefield, the $XAVGO chip fluctuations are exactly the flanking shocks triggered by the army's misappropriation of ammunition. When the main funds withdraw their heavy cannons from the BTC position and fully load ETH, the elastic range between derivatives and linked targets has been redrawn.
There is no perfect profit-loss ratio, and the trigger must never be pulled; When the large-caliber sniper rifle in the shadows has been calibrated for precision, the prey on the position remains completely unaware of the danger.
Pull the trigger down the first stroke, and the coldest wind before the bullet leaves the chamber blows.Copper prices have once again hit nominal all-time highs, backed by two hands: the US is strategically absorbing reserves, global concentrate shortages persist, and supply chains are being dredged out. Why should the crypto world take a look at copper? Because it's the most honest thermometer of inflation and industrial demand—copper prices usually mean real inflationary pressures exist, and this is precisely the way the Fed is being told not to rush to cut rates. So copper's new highs aren't entirely good news for risk assets in the short term; they reinforce the logic that interest rates will remain high over the long term. $BTC Assets that rely on liquidity must first digest this layer of macro pressure. Commodity signals often speak the truth before candlesticks. Those who know, understand.1. 美股高位休整：指数小幅回落，今晚非农决定利率交易方向 美东 8月6日，美股在连续创高后转入观望。道指下跌 0.85%至53,885.10点，标普500下跌 0.18%至7,709.96点，纳指小跌 0.06%至26,348.35点。市场核心并不是企业盈利突然恶化，而是投资者在今晚美国非农前降低风险敞口，同时霍尔木兹谈判不确定性推高油价和美债收益率。 机会与趋势： AI和科技股仍保持相对韧性，说明资金并未全面撤离成长资产。若今晚就业和工资同步降温、长债收益率回落，纳指和AI产业链仍可能成为最直接受益方向。 风险与预警： 软件股内部出现新的估值压力，市场开始担忧AI Agent可能侵蚀传统SaaS商业模式；HubSpot单日大跌约19%，意味着AI主题正在从“所有科技股受益”转向“谁被AI替代、谁利用AI扩大护城河”的结构性分化。 关键数据变化： * 标普500：7,709.96，-0.18% * 纳指：26,348.35，-0.06% * 道指：53,885.10，-0.85% * 初请失业金：19.9万人，仍处历史低位附近。 ⸻ 2. AI／Agent：Meta也出现越权行为，AThe Middle East issue is heating up again: Trump ordered a thorough investigation into Pentagon ammunition leaks, Saudi intelligence claims the Houthis and Iran's Revolutionary Guard are coordinating attacks, and Iran pushes for a bill to ban US and Israeli ships from passing through Hormuz. Oil prices jump, US stocks and Treasuries are also being withdrawn. A reminder of the old rule: in this round of war, the risk market is not pricing in safe-haven assets, but pricing in 'inflation → rate hikes.' So don't assume war is always good $BTC—when oil rises and rate hike expectations arise, gold and crypto are likely to be squeezed together. The first reaction to geopolitics is to look at crude oil and two-year US Treasuries, not who is shouting loudly. Watch as you walk, protect your bullets.$SNDK $SKHY $MU Analysis of the U.S. stock market closing on August 6
1. Index close
The Dow closed at 53,885.1 points, down 0.85%, opening high and continuing strong before retreating on increased volume; The S&P 500 fell 0.18%, fluctuating in a narrow range; The Nasdaq only edged down 0.06%, hedged by leading tech stocks.
2. Sector performance
Memory chips plunged across the board, with Western Digital plunging 13.03%, SanDisk and SK Hynix both weakening in sync, mainly because their earnings met targets, but growth guidance for next quarter fell short of market expectations, with funds concentrated after previous surges.
Tech leaders diverged, with Microsoft and Apple closing higher, while Nvidia and Google saw slight pullbacks; Energy and healthcare bucked the trend and strengthened, while industrial and real estate sectors weakened.
3. Market Logic
The storage sector's previous gains overdrawn valuations, leading to capital retreating from favorable policies; Risk-averse sentiment in the market is intensifying, with funds shifting from high-end growth stocks to defensive sectors; The Nasdaq has stabilized its market share through heavyweight stocks, with index performance diverging.
4. Market outlook
High-level technology and storage sectors continue to face short-term pullback pressure, market funds rotate into low-valuation defense sectors, and the technology sector has entered a phase of volatile digestion.📊 $ETH contract liquidation express (August 7)
According to liquidation data, this wave of short positions was frantically crushed by the Dog Traders...
In the past hour, liquidation amounted to about $277,700
Long positions were liquidated at about $242,600
Short positions were liquidated by about $35,000
The liquidation amount in the past 4 hours was approximately $440,200
Long positions were liquidated at about $66,500
Short positions were liquidated by about $373,700
The liquidation amount in the past 12 hours was approximately $6.9259 million
Long positions were liquidated by about $2.96 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $3.9659 million
The liquidation amount in the past 24 hours was approximately $15.212 million
Long positions were liquidated by about $8.643 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $6.569 million
From $ETH liquidation data, within 1 hour, short liquidations crushed the bulls, with bears nearly 7 times the number of bulls, and the short squeeze was fierce right from the start; The 4-hour short advantage persisted, with a ratio of about 5.6 times, indicating a full burst of short squeezes; the 12-hour short advantage narrowed to about 1.34 times, with marginal weakening of short squeeze momentum; the 24-hour direction completely reversed, with long liquidations crushing the bears, with bulls at 1.32 times the bears. Dog Maker completed a fierce turnaround from short squeezing to long selling on ETH—short-term short chases were targeted and destroyed, long-term long chasers were wiped out all at once, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $15.21 million. Everyone should control their positions and avoid being recovered and cut off.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 7
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a stage of "not only good, but flawlessly"—"exceeding expectations" is just an entry ticket; any flaw will be magnified.
💾 SanDisk: 372% growth + 14 billion buybacks, still knocked down by "not impressive enough."
SanDisk delivers explosive financial report: Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Adjusted EPS reached $39.25, 135 times that of a year ago; The board approved a $14 billion stock buyback plan. Full-year revenue was $20.25 billion, up 175% year-on-year.
However, the after-hours stock price plunged nearly 8% at one point. The culprit is the next quarter guidance — median revenue of $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The 83%-85% gross margin guidance suggests that high gross margins may be entering a plateau period. 372% growth is insufficient, 14 billion yuan in buybacks is insufficient—the market wants "perfection."
💳 Circle: USDC grows steadily, Arc takes on a new narrative
Before the market opened on August 5, stablecoin giant Circle delivered its Q2 results: total revenue of $701 million, up 7% year-on-year; net profit of $48 million, turning profitable compared to the same period last year. USDC circulating supply reached $73.3 billion, up 19% year-on-year; on-chain trading volume reached $14.8 trillion, a year-on-year surge of 151%.
The biggest highlight is Arc—the company has significantly raised its full-year guidance for other revenue to $310–330 million, mainly reflecting the $242 million Arc token presale revenue recognized in Q2. USDC is the foundation; Arc is the future the market is betting on. Against the backdrop of rising crypto payment penetration, Circle is attempting to upgrade from a "stablecoin issuer" to a "crypto financial infrastructure platform."
🚀 SpaceX: Revenue doubles, and the real storm is the unlocking flood peak
After the market closed on August 4, SpaceX's first earnings report was released: Q2 revenue was $7.814 billion, up 92% year-on-year, far exceeding the expected $6.9 billion; Adjusted EBITDA reached $3.5 billion.
In after-hours trading, the stock price once plunged more than 9%. Capital expenditure soared to $18.4 billion, 6.5 times the same period last year—the market rewards spending efficiency, not burn money. An even bigger storm came on August 6: about 912 million restricted shares were unlocked, with a market value of $114 billion, equivalent to 1.4 times the current tradable share. Less than two months after listing, the stock price had nearly halved from its peak.
💎 Summary
SanDisk's 372% growth led to the after-hours plunge, while SpaceX's 92% revenue growth earned the market's vote with its feet—"better" has become the passing line; only "perfection" can satisfy investors.
As the AI track moves from "storytelling" to "delivering the answer sheet," every deviation in guidance and every dollar spent on capital will be repeatedly scrutinized under the spotlight. Old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming—and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #闪迪财报双超预期, $14 billion new buyback authorizations were added
#Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC experience new growth?
#财报观察员: Mixed results, the lifting of restrictions is approaching! What do you think about SpaceX's future? DeepSeek is about to raise API pricing. Don't underestimate this news—the main theme of AI over the past two years has been 'price wars': whoever offers the cheapest is grabbing users; Now that leaders are daring to raise prices, the signal has changed: from competing for territory to rent-collecting stages. Raising prices shows real demand and high replacement costs—this is the first solid proof that the business model is working. This is a bonus for the entire AI narrative, but it also means the industry is starting to stratify—those with pricing power and those without, valuations will be widened. Retail investors are still chasing concepts, while institutions are already watching who will actually get paid. The ones who will have the last laugh in this wave of AI will definitely be those who can collect rent. Those who know, know.A look before the 8/7 market open:
Yesterday, the A-share market was quite interesting. The Shanghai Composite managed to break above 3900, but both the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and ChiNext were in the red. The index rose, and individual stocks were evenly split between gains and losses. 2789 rose vs. 2590 fell, not a broad-based rally.
79 stocks hit the daily limit, with 22 stocks hitting the daily limit up; sentiment is still heating up. The strongest in communications (13 hit the daily limit), and chips and AI applications are also decent. Interestingly, coal suddenly moved in the afternoon, with 7 stocks hitting the daily limit. Is this trying to cut between high and low prices?
US stocks saw little movement last night; the Dow fell 0.85%, a bit more, and the S&P and Nasdaq closed basically flat. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose. The key is tonight's US CPI; before the July data is released, the market definitely won't dare to move recklessly.
Today is Friday, with CPI as the finale. The Shanghai Composite just touched 3900 yesterday, and today it will most likely be confirmed back and forth. Whether growth directions (communications, AI) can be performed depends on funds moving into low-level coal. The opening will reveal some meaning.
If 3900 becomes a withstanding water level, then next week there will be a chance to do it.Look carefully, everyone, when I shake open this ADP labor data white handkerchief printed with "44,000" with my left hand, your eyes have already been stolen by me 🎩🕊️🃏
Retail investors in the audience were staring at the sign reading "the weakest new additions in six months," frantically cheering, thinking the Fed's heavy rate hike blade was finally about to turn into a fragrant plastic rose. They pointed at the cooling labor market and screamed: "Pigeons! The doves cutting rates are about to fly out!" ”
But this is the classic stage misdirection.
In the law of fraud magic, the more flawless the "good news," the more it conceals the hidden traps. That ADP small card far below the expected 75,000 is just a flash of powder I tossed into the air to catch your eye. When you focus all your attention on the illusion of "the Fed's rate hike stance wavering," my right hand is already hidden in the shadow of a black cloak, completing a crisp bottom deal.
The old Fed bureaucrats still keep the shadow of inflation hidden in their tongues, keeping the suspense alive with ambiguous warnings. You think the hawks have exited? Look at the real money the CME is betting on—the probability of another 25 basis point rate hike in September has not collapsed, but has quietly exceeded 50%! This is not a celebration of pausing rate hikes, but a classic "forced card"—the bookmaker makes you think you hold the dove chips, but in reality, every card you pick is in their hands.
The capital chain in the crypto world has never existed in isolation; it is merely a suspended thread in the hands of a macro liquidity puppet. Especially for a stock like $XCH, which is extremely sensitive to the US stock market, it is currently suspended on a tightrope suspended in midair. Its market pulse seems to twitch slightly as ADP cools, but this is merely a visual error caused by the backstage prop master's pulling the rope.
Retail investors cheer for the cooling labor force, ignoring the shadow of rate hikes lurking in the shadows. Friday's nonfarm payroll report and next week's CPI data are the two linked crossbows hanging over the stage. As soon as inflation data rebounds slightly, the so-called "rate-cutting doves" instantly become pincers that strain liquidity.
On the Magician's stage, what you see is always just the reflection I want you to see. In the $XCH and the overall macro market's linked chess game, those who try to charge long based on just one ADP data are just dancing on the rig floor.
The truly fatal card-cutting always happens at the moment when the audience thinks the drama has ended.One of the most noteworthy stories today: SpaceX plans to expand storage for Texas chip factories' self-built natural gas power plants, and Tesla TeraFab claims to produce over 1 terawatt of computing power annually. Do you understand? The computing power race has shifted from 'how many cards to buy' to 'how much power you generate yourself.' Electricity and energy storage are becoming the true hard constraints of the AI era; whoever controls the energy has the right to talk about scale. Extending downward, the beneficiaries are not just chips, but also power, energy storage, and even storage—the entire AI hardware supply chain is being repriced. $BTC The energy infrastructure accumulated over the years of mining might one day find a new place in this narrative. Those who know, know—let's see for ourselves.Trump now calls the Fed Chair every day, and Washes has basically become the president's 'economic advisor.' So what was the trend—insiders say that as long as inflation data is strong enough, Washi is prepared to raise rates in September. You read that right—interest rate hikes. The market was still hoping for a rate cut recently, but now it needs to weigh whether it might be proven wrong again. My consistent view is: don't gamble your own position on the central bank's goodwill. The louder the hype about rate cut expectations, the harder they are trampled on when those expectations fall through. Tonight, the first hurdle is the nonfarm payrolls. With strong data, rate hike pricing is set back immediately. $BTC Don't expect liquidity easing to save the day; first weather this round of macro headwinds before discussing the market.📊 $DOGE Contract Liquidation Express (August 7)
According to liquidation data, short-term bulls are being pinned down and rubbed wildly, but long-term bears are starting to fight back...
The liquidation amount in the past hour was approximately $449.33
Long positions liquidated at about $423.45
Short positions were liquidated at about $25.88
The liquidation amount in the past 4 hours was approximately $3,429.05
Long positions liquidated at about $3,403.16
Short positions were liquidated at about $25.88
The liquidation amount in the past 12 hours was approximately $1.1826 million
Long positions were liquidated at about $638,000
Short positions were liquidated by about $544,700
The liquidation amount in the past 24 hours was approximately $2.7892 million
Long positions were liquidated at about $2.2381 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $551,100
From $DOGE liquidation data, 1-hour and 4-hour long liquidations crushed short positions, with long liquidations being 16 times and 131 times longer than shorts, respectively. The long selling trend unfolded fiercely during the short cycle; The 12-hour bullish advantage narrowed sharply, dropping to 1.17 times, with short squeezing significantly strengthened; 24-hour bulls overtook at about 4.06 times. Dog Zhuang completed a pattern of short-term long selling, medium-term long and short tug-of-war, and long-term long selling on DOGE, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $2.78 million. Everyone should control their positions well and don't be forced to buy back.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 7
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a stage of "not only good, but flawlessly"—"exceeding expectations" is just an entry ticket; any flaw will be magnified.
💾 SanDisk: 372% growth + 14 billion buybacks, still knocked down by "not impressive enough."
SanDisk delivers explosive financial report: Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Adjusted EPS reached $39.25, 135 times that of a year ago; The board approved a $14 billion stock buyback plan. Full-year revenue was $20.25 billion, up 175% year-on-year.
However, the after-hours stock price plunged nearly 8% at one point. The culprit is the next quarter guidance — median revenue of $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The 83%-85% gross margin guidance suggests that high gross margins may be entering a plateau period. 372% growth is insufficient, 14 billion yuan in buybacks is insufficient—the market wants "perfection."
💳 Circle: USDC grows steadily, Arc takes on a new narrative
Before the market opened on August 5, stablecoin giant Circle delivered its Q2 results: total revenue of $701 million, up 7% year-on-year; net profit of $48 million, turning profitable compared to the same period last year. USDC circulating supply reached $73.3 billion, up 19% year-on-year; on-chain trading volume reached $14.8 trillion, a year-on-year surge of 151%.
The biggest highlight is Arc—the company has significantly raised its full-year guidance for other revenue to $310–330 million, mainly reflecting the $242 million Arc token presale revenue recognized in Q2. USDC is the foundation; Arc is the future the market is betting on. Against the backdrop of rising crypto payment penetration, Circle is attempting to upgrade from a "stablecoin issuer" to a "crypto financial infrastructure platform."
🚀 SpaceX: Revenue doubles, and the real storm is the unlocking flood peak
After the market closed on August 4, SpaceX's first earnings report was released: Q2 revenue was $7.814 billion, up 92% year-on-year, far exceeding the expected $6.9 billion; Adjusted EBITDA reached $3.5 billion.
In after-hours trading, the stock price once plunged more than 9%. Capital expenditure soared to $18.4 billion, 6.5 times the same period last year—the market rewards spending efficiency, not burn money. An even bigger storm came on August 6: about 912 million restricted shares were unlocked, with a market value of $114 billion, equivalent to 1.4 times the current tradable share. Less than two months after listing, the stock price had nearly halved from its peak.
💎 Summary
SanDisk's 372% growth led to the after-hours plunge, while SpaceX's 92% revenue growth earned the market's vote with its feet—"better" has become the passing line; only "perfection" can satisfy investors.
As the AI track moves from "storytelling" to "delivering the answer sheet," every deviation in guidance and every dollar spent on capital will be repeatedly scrutinized under the spotlight. Old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming—and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #闪迪财报双超预期, $14 billion new buyback authorizations were added
#Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC experience new growth?
#财报观察员: Mixed results, the lifting of restrictions is approaching! What do you think about SpaceX's future? The darkest part of a dead market isn't a crash, but even the biggest policy variables of the year are ignored—this kind of 'laziness to fear' is often the last quiet before the market changes.
This week, two swords hang overhead: The U.S. Senate said it will "without a doubt" vote on the CLARITY crypto bill (the most significant legislation of the year) this week, and the PMI data once again raised a "stagflation" warning, causing BTC to shrink coils below 65,000.
Market view: BTC solder 64,338 (-0.51%), volume -93.3%, slashed to scraps, OI 105,500 BTC frozen, fee rate +0.0006%, soft as if suffocated, fear greed 25 welded dead, breadth 5:10. The whole market is waiting, no one dares to move first.
Translate the term stagflation: growth has stopped, inflation remains sticky, the Fed can't reach both ends → liquidity tightening expectations→ BTC is the first to be treated as a high-beta risk asset in this narrative. Don't believe in the "digital gold hedging" scheme; real hedging is waiting for interest rate expectations to ease, not to hold out now.
Here's a set of "three macro tops to watch" for everyone:(1) PMI stagflation signal = liquidity tightening expectations, BTC sells first then diverges; (2) CLARITY Pass = certainty premium, Too Much = hanging sword; current zero pricing means the market treats it as noise; (3) Shrinkage Welding Dead = Waiting for macro + regulatory boots to land; it's not that there's no chance, but no one dares to take it.
My two trades, GRVT short -0.91%, ADA up -0.54%, still soldering underwater—the contrarian indicator cap is firmly worn. If I do the opposite, remember to do the opposite.
This week, do you bet BTC will break below 6.3 first or push to 6.6 first? A. Break and lie flat B. Fake breakout C. Reverse go short, comment with a letter.
Crypto assets carry high risk. This article does not constitute investment advice and reflects purely personal opinions.
$BTC $ETH #滞胀 #宏观悬顶 #CLARITY法案 #风控策略 #新手科普 #行情分析 #OKX星球On the morning of August 7, the sentiment index finally climbed back from extreme fear to Fear, but the market did not celebrate accordingly. BTC: $64,264, approximately -0.49% in 24H ETH: $1,901.02, approximately -0.42% in 24H SOL: $72.61, approximately -1.92% in 24H Today's strength ranking is: ETH > BTC > SOL. ETH barely holds above $1,900, BTC is close to 64K again, but SOL fell the most. The Fear and Greed Index rose from 25 to 29, indicating sentiment is recovering; the total market cap dropped about 0.50%, and volume shrank by 13.28%, meaning money has not followed the sentiment back. The external environment is also not helping. On August 6, the 10-year US Treasury yield rebounded about 5.3 basis points, the US dollar index rose about 0.28%, the S&P 500 dipped slightly, and the Nasdaq was nearly flat with a slight weakness. Liquidity has not suddenly tightened, but it is enough to cause the most fragile high Beta assets to fall behind first. In summary: sentiment is recovering, prices are retreating, and volume is shrinking — this is not a panic sell-off, but a failure of the rebound to gain momentum. 1) BTC: 65K failed to break through again, 64K becomes the defense line BTC is reported at $64,264, 24H volume about $18.52B, market cap about $1.290T, 24H range $64,114-$64,916. Recalculated by price and USD change, it dropped about 0.49% in 24H. Yesterday BTC was just one step away from 65K, today the high was still only $64,916, then returned to Challenger's layoff report has a detail: AI has been the main reason for layoffs for five consecutive months. It sounds surreal—AI companies are still burning cash themselves, most don't even have positive cash flow, yet they are helping other companies lay off people first. The market interprets this as a positive sign of 'cost reduction and efficiency improvement,' but I want to ask: what about demand? The profits supported by layoffs and cost cuts and real cash revenue growth are two different qualities. The biggest risk of AI narratives now isn't technology, but valuations that price all the productivity that hasn't been realized in advance. $BTC These high-beta assets, when the narrative is proven to be true, they won't reason with you when they fall. Take it one step at a time, don't treat it like faith is a top-up.Seeing the news that BlackRock's ETHA is about to merge 3 shares into 1, many people have already started imagining a big positive for Ethereum, but I can only say don't get carried away.
To put it bluntly, this is just an "appearance project" by institutions, with the total assets in the account neither more nor less, simply raising the unit price. Ethereum continues to decline, the ETF price looks low and unattractive, so they do a merge to beautify the price and also reduce transaction fees. Grayscale has long tried this tactic.
This operation has nothing directly to do with market rises or falls and cannot be considered a bullish signal. Don't be led by hype from the news, and don't rely solely on this kind of capital-packaged news to bet on direction. The capital market has too many tricks, and we retail investors must see clearly the real underlying capital movements.#闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added
For meme players: only take the bottom chips and firmly follow the theory of using small bets to win big. Never chase highs, so they didn't die. Also, honestly play primary levels, don't understand US stocks or secondary altcoins, so never touch them.
For level 2 players: didn't use the lever, just spot trading, so didn't die. Knew liquidity was exhausted, so didn't go all-in on single altcoins. Knew the inside info was unreliable, so never went into the palace twice, grabbed the first wave and then left. Just make a small profit, not obsessed with catching demon coins.
US stock traders: haven't chased storage at high prices or kept bottom-fishing hynix. This is the first wave of early profits from storage, but it didn't sell at the peak. Currently, it's a huge profit drawdown, so I haven't made much or lost big, so it's fine. I haven't bought many altcoins in the crypto world because I know innovation in crypto is lacking, altcoins don't have real breakout effects, mostly short-term forced liquidations.
$ZBT @OKX Growth Academy
Do you think the crypto world can change the fate of ordinary people?
Yes, but very rarely.
$CHIP A structural check-up of the market: $BTC rates have mildly turned positive, OI is at a low level, Coinbase has slightly discounted Binance, and 24-hour liquidations are still mostly forced by bears. On the surface, it looks like a formula for a short squeeze and rebound, but trading volume is extremely shrinking—a rebound without volume essentially lacks support and squeezing, not a trend. More importantly, this week crypto failed to keep up with US stock highs and gold surges, continuing the divergence of 'following the drop but not the rise.' The derivatives structure tells you: neither bulls nor bears have confidence, waiting for a catalyst. At times like this, chasing bulls or shorts is easy to get targeted. Look at your position.📊 $BTC Contract Liquidation Express (August 7)
According to liquidation data, this bull market was frantically rubbed by the bull market...
The liquidation amount in the past hour was approximately $1.5498 million
Long positions were liquidated at about $1.4773 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $72,500
The liquidation amount in the past 4 hours was approximately $1.6966 million
Long positions were liquidated at about $1.5816 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $115,000
The liquidation amount in the past 12 hours was approximately $11.08 million
Long positions were liquidated by about $6.8402 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $4.2406 million
The liquidation amount in the past 24 hours was approximately $17.8123 million
Long positions were liquidated by about $8.5071 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $9.3052 million
From $BTC liquidation data, 1-hour and 4-hour long liquidations crushed short positions, with long liquidations 20 times and 13.7 times the short positions' volume. The long selling rally unfolded with nuclear explosion-level intensity in the short cycle; the 12-hour bullish advantage persisted but narrowed sharply, dropping to 1.6 times, significantly strengthening short selling power; the 24-hour direction completely reversed, with short liquidations crushing the bulls, with short positions 1.09 times the longs. Dog Zhuang completed a fierce turnaround from long selling to short squeezing on BTC—short-term long sellers were targeted and destroyed, long-term short sellers were wiped out in one go, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $17.81 million. Everyone should control their positions to avoid being bought back and cut off.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 7
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a stage of "not only good, but flawlessly"—"exceeding expectations" is just an entry ticket; any flaw will be magnified.
💾 SanDisk: 372% growth + 14 billion buybacks, still knocked down by "not impressive enough."
SanDisk delivers explosive financial report: Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Adjusted EPS reached $39.25, 135 times that of a year ago; The board approved a $14 billion stock buyback plan. Full-year revenue was $20.25 billion, up 175% year-on-year.
However, the after-hours stock price plunged nearly 8% at one point. The culprit is the next quarter guidance — median revenue of $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The 83%-85% gross margin guidance suggests that high gross margins may be entering a plateau period. 372% growth is insufficient, 14 billion yuan in buybacks is insufficient—the market wants "perfection."
💳 Circle: USDC grows steadily, Arc takes on a new narrative
Before the market opened on August 5, stablecoin giant Circle delivered its Q2 results: total revenue of $701 million, up 7% year-on-year; net profit of $48 million, turning profitable compared to the same period last year. USDC circulating supply reached $73.3 billion, up 19% year-on-year; on-chain trading volume reached $14.8 trillion, a year-on-year surge of 151%.
The biggest highlight is Arc—the company has significantly raised its full-year guidance for other revenue to $310–330 million, mainly reflecting the $242 million Arc token presale revenue recognized in Q2. USDC is the foundation; Arc is the future the market is betting on. Against the backdrop of rising crypto payment penetration, Circle is attempting to upgrade from a "stablecoin issuer" to a "crypto financial infrastructure platform."
🚀 SpaceX: Revenue doubles, and the real storm is the unlocking flood peak
After the market closed on August 4, SpaceX's first earnings report was released: Q2 revenue was $7.814 billion, up 92% year-on-year, far exceeding the expected $6.9 billion; Adjusted EBITDA reached $3.5 billion.
In after-hours trading, the stock price once plunged more than 9%. Capital expenditure soared to $18.4 billion, 6.5 times the same period last year—the market rewards spending efficiency, not burn money. An even bigger storm came on August 6: about 912 million restricted shares were unlocked, with a market value of $114 billion, equivalent to 1.4 times the current tradable share. Less than two months after listing, the stock price had nearly halved from its peak.
💎 Summary
SanDisk's 372% growth led to the after-hours plunge, while SpaceX's 92% revenue growth earned the market's vote with its feet—"better" has become the passing line; only "perfection" can satisfy investors.
As the AI track moves from "storytelling" to "delivering the answer sheet," every deviation in guidance and every dollar spent on capital will be repeatedly scrutinized under the spotlight. Old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming—and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #闪迪财报双超预期, $14 billion new buyback authorizations were added
#Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC experience new growth?
#财报观察员: Mixed results, the lifting of restrictions is approaching! What do you think about SpaceX's future? The moves of safe-haven funds are worth noting: SPDR gold ETF holdings continued to grow, and the world's largest silver ETF added 42 tons in a single day. At the same time, the World Gold Council offered a counterintuitive view—a second wave of high inflation similar to the late 1970s could be ruled out, but this itself does not necessarily push gold prices higher. To put it simply: inflation expectations and gold are not simply positively correlated; there is a variable of real interest rates in between. If Wash's turn to rate hikes in September, rising real interest rates will actually suppress non-yielding assets. For gold and $BTC as 'anti-inflation narrative' targets, the next test is not inflation itself, but how central banks respond. Data won't play along with you.$ETH **ETH, $1,907, with a wait-and-see bias. BlackRock is secretly swapping positions, swapping BTC for ETH—this is the biggest event today. **
Current price $1,907, 24 hours barely changed. But beneath the surface, currents are surging.
**BlackRock Position Rotation Confirmed:** Since July 1, BlackRock's IBIT Bitcoin holdings have decreased by 3,710 BTC, while ETHA and Ethereum holdings surged by 196,000 ETH during the same period. Ethereum holdings soared from $4.46 billion to $5.54 billion, an increase of $1.08 billion in 37 days. This is not retail investors; BlackRock investors are systematically switching from BTC to ETH.
The ETH/BTC exchange rate has risen 5%+ since early July, breaking through 0.02958. Analysts say that if this trend continues, it could reach 0.0312. ETH is leading, not following.
**But the technical side is stuck:** $1,920 is a wall. The 100-day SMA is just holding up here; since mid-July, I've tried three times but failed. RSI 55.5, although still in the bullish range, each rally pushes the RSI high downward — momentum can't keep up with the price. The 200-day SMA is at $2,070, still far away.
**ETFs inflow $115 million in three days:** Yesterday, another $60.86 million was inflowed, with BlackRock ETHA alone swallowing $50.34 million. ETH ETFs have seen net inflows for three consecutive days and not a single outflow. Institutional confidence in ETH is even more stable than BTC.
**MVRV Indicator Greenlights:** Ali Martinez's MVRV framework shows ETH entering a strong valuation range after breaking above the $1,800 0.8 price zone. The next target is $2,300 (realized price), and the ultimate target is $3,000. Historically, MVRV has shown a golden cross of momentum four times, with gains ranging from 50% to 166%.
**Key Level:** Above $1,920→ $2,000→ $2,070 (200-day SMA). Below $1,870, there is triple support (0.236 Fibonacci + upper band of the descending channel + lower band of the ascending channel). A break below would target $1,840→ $1,790-1,800 (50-day SMA).
**Direction: Slightly bullish. ** BlackRock position rotation is an institutional-level signal; the ETH/BTC exchange rate has broken through and ETFs continue to flow in. But the US-Iran conflict +$1,920 three times, but don't get carried away. Chase above $1,920; hold on if it doesn't break $1,870.Tonight, the US released three consecutive July nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, and hourly earnings data — the biggest single variable for risk assets this week. The logic is straightforward: strong data → reinforces long-term high interest rates→ a stronger dollar strengthens → pressure on risk assets; weak data means the opposite. In recent days, the market has already priced in a more hawkish Fed path, with both US stocks and bonds pulling back, and crypto currencies weakening simultaneously. So don't treat tonight as ordinary data; it determines the discount rate environment for the next two weeks. $BTC currently stuck in structural volatility, waiting for confirmation of this direction. Before the data comes out, position size matters more than views. Position size speaks for itself.The AI computing power narrative driven by US tech stock earnings is now being transmitted to the decentralized AI sector. After $TAO surged to 580, it faces a pullback and support test. The core contradiction lies in the tightening liquidity of the market and the strength of sector consolidation.
The market showed clear capital stratification. Against the backdrop of $BTC maintaining high fluctuations around the 68,200 level, the AI sector held the main trading share. $TAO Volume surged through the 520 resistance zone and briefly touched 580, while sentiment sectors experienced stagnation with increased volume and net capital outflows.
The main themes driving capital concentration are, in order: the spillover effect of AI performance in the US stock market, decentralized computing power clustering, and the penetration of traditional capital into compliant RWA sectors. This capital stratification concentrates chips in leading stocks with logical support.
The trigger for the upside scenario is for $TAO to successfully confirm a second pullback in the 550 to 555 range, while $BTC stabilize above 68,000. Under these conditions, funds will continue to cluster around the decentralized AI narrative, driving $TAO further toward the 650 target level.
The trigger for a downside scenario is that the US tech sector surges and pulls back, causing overall risk appetite to shrink, or the market $BTC breaking below the key liquidity support level of 66,000. If $TAO breaks below the 525 support level with increased volume, it indicates that sector sentiment has completely cooled, and prices will move down toward the 480 to 490 defense range.
The threshold for bullish logic failure is set at $TAO breaking below 455 or $BTC falling below 65,000, meaning the market's systemic correction has disrupted the independent market momentum of the on-chain AI sector. Conversely, if the price breaks through the 580 resistance and trading volume remains above 800 million, the downside prediction is voided.
In the next 7 days, focus should be on whether $BTC can hold above the 66,000 level and the shrinking trading volume of $TAO in the 550 to 555 pullback range.
#谷歌AI高层重组, the loss of core talent draws attention. #CLARITY法案推进受阻, the Senate divide has widenedTSMC's latest N2 process capacity is actually sufficient; the real bottleneck is DRAM—the shortage has started to spread to consumers, and even Apple's iPhone 18 stocking is under pressure. This isn't a one-time price hike; it's a structural gap caused by capacity not keeping up with demand. Storage has always been the most typical cyclical product: once supply is confirmed, price elasticity is often steeper than most people expect. Just a few days ago, the market was panicking about a pullback in US storage stocks, but when you put supply and demand on the surface, a correction and fundamentals are two different things. Data won't play with you. Beyond $BTC, the position of storage in this round of AI hardware deserves a special attention. What do you think about this round of DRAM gaps?📊 $RE Contract Liquidation Express (August 7)
According to liquidation data, short-term shorts were crushed hard, but mid-to-long-term longs suffered a massive bloodbath...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $615.01
Long liquidations about $615.01
Short liquidations about $0
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $17,000
Long liquidations about $16,300
Short liquidations about $677.32
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $70,600
Long liquidations about $19,200
Short liquidations about $51,400
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $108,800
Long liquidations about $52,200
Short liquidations about $56,600
From $RE liquidation data, long liquidations in 1-hour and 4-hour periods crushed shorts, with long liquidations tens of thousands and 24 times that of shorts respectively, indicating a fierce short-term long squeeze; the 12-hour direction suddenly reversed, with short liquidations crushing longs, shorts 2.7 times longs, triggering a full short squeeze; the 24-hour long-short balance tends to be even, shorts leading by a slight margin, and long resistance significantly rising—long liquidations surged from $615 in 1 hour to $52,200. The whale on RE completed a rhythm evolution of short-term long kills, mid-term short squeezes, and long-term long-short tug-of-war, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $100,000. Everyone control your positions well, don’t get harvested back and forth.
🔥 Market Barometer | August 7
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a stage of "not only good, but flawlessly good"—"exceeding expectations" is just the entry ticket, any flaw will be magnified.
💾 SanDisk: 372% growth + $14B buyback, still knocked down by "not impressive enough"
SanDisk delivered explosive earnings: Q4 revenue $8.97B, up 372% YoY; adjusted EPS $39.25, 135 times that of a year ago; board approved $14B stock buyback plan. Full-year revenue $20.25B, up 175% YoY.
However, after-hours stock price once plunged nearly 8%. The culprit was next quarter guidance—revenue midpoint $10.55B, below market expectation of $10.82B. Gross margin guidance of 83%-85% implies high margins may plateau. 372% growth is not enough, $14B buyback is not enough—the market demands "perfection."
💳 Circle: USDC steady growth, Arc becomes new narrative
Before market on August 5, stablecoin giant Circle released Q2 results: total revenue $701M, up 7% YoY; net profit $48M, turning profitable from loss last year. USDC circulation reached $73.3B, up 19% YoY; on-chain transaction volume $14.8T, soaring 151% YoY.
The biggest highlight is Arc—the company significantly raised full-year other income guidance to $310M-$330M, mainly reflecting $242M Arc token presale revenue confirmed in Q2. USDC is the base, Arc is the future the market bets on. With crypto payment penetration continuously rising, Circle is trying to upgrade from "stablecoin issuer" to "crypto financial infrastructure platform."
🚀 SpaceX: Revenue doubled, lock-up peak is the real storm
After market on August 4, SpaceX released its first earnings report: Q2 revenue $7.814B, up 92% YoY, far exceeding expected $6.9B; adjusted EBITDA $3.5B.
After-hours stock price once plunged over 9%. Capital expenditure soared to $18.4B, 6.5 times that of the same period last year—the market rewards spending efficiency, not speed of burning cash. The bigger storm is on August 6: about 912 million restricted shares unlocked, with a market value of $114B, equivalent to 1.4 times the current float. Less than two months after listing, the stock price has nearly halved from its peak.
💎 Summary
SanDisk exchanged 372% growth for an after-hours plunge, SpaceX exchanged 92% revenue growth for the market voting with its feet—"exceeding expectations" has become the passing line, only "perfection" can satisfy investors.
As the AI track moves from "storytelling" to "delivering results," every deviation in guidance and every dollar of capital expenditure will be scrutinized under the spotlight. Old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming—and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
#Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ 闪迪涨了32倍之后的几点思考
数据挺惊人的——过去一年涨了32倍，今年到现在涨了5倍。7月份回调过一波，据说是杠杆资金出清。最新财报营收90亿美元，同比增3.7倍，净利润69亿，去年同期还是亏的。毛利率84.6%，涨价贡献了大部分增长，销量贡献了大概三分之一。
华尔街给的平均目标价在2000美元以上，最乐观的看到3000多。
但我想聊的不是这些数字本身，而是看完之后的几个感受。
第一个感受是，这个位置很微妙。
涨了这么多，基本面确实强，但市场已经把"强"这件事充分消化了。之前行情的核心逻辑是科技巨头不断上调AI相关的资本开支，存储跟着受益。到了现在，这个预期已经被计入价格，后面再超预期的难度变大了。不是说公司不好，是说股价已经把好的一面基本反映完了。
第二个感受是，后面大概率是震荡。
基本面目前没有明显恶化，短期跌多了可能反弹，但想复制之前的暴涨，概率不大。更可能的情况是涨一段、歇一段，用时间换空间。对这种涨了30多倍的票来说，横盘整理本身就是一种相对强势的表现。
说几点实在的：
· 如果现在想进，仓位要控制。上涨空间和下跌空间不对等，性价比需要考虑。
· 盯着科技巨头的资本开支计划，这个是最核心的变量。他们一收缩，存储最先受影响。
· 如果有浮盈，可以考虑用期权做个保护，成本不高，买个心安。
好公司、好赛道，和好价格是三件不同的事。闪迪目前占了前两样，第三样见仁见智。
以上是个人看法，不构成建议。错的地方欢迎指正。$ETH **BTC, $64,432, bearish on the sidelines. Last night, the US and Iran made a move, don't pretend you didn't see it. **
On Wednesday, U.S. warships launched attacks on Iran in retaliation for three ships shot down in the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamabad agreement is on the verge of tearing. Brent crude surged to $75. Geopolitical bomb, BTC will not be immune.
**Data Speaks:** 24H down 0.3%, 24h high $64,916, low $64,114. RSI 48, lying below the midline, playing dead. MACD golden cross still exists, but the bars have shrunk significantly. Most importantly—BTC has already topped the bearish downtrend line since last October's ATH, but the 4-hour chart shows prices squeezed below the trendline, unable to climb higher.
**The 50-day EMA at $65,581 is a wall. ** Last night, I touched it and it was bought back. The 200-day EMA at $75,459 is far from the horizon. If this structure doesn't break through, anything you say is just self-indulgence.
**ETF inflows plunge sharply:** $626 million surged in the first three days, then plummeted to $29.2 million yesterday (8/6). From $244 million to $29 million, a shrunk of 88%. South Korea already suspects that the inflows a few days ago were basis arbitrage—ETF buying + futures selling, not real money bullishness. IBIT alone monopolized 76%, further indicating high inflow concentration and not a broad rally signal.
**Fear index 25, extreme fear. ** Retail investors are running, but the price is holding up thanks to passive position switching caused by the Coldcard hack—119,000 BTC were withdrawn, only one-tenth went into exchanges, most went into ETFs. This isn't active buying, it's forced to move.
** Vital gate: $64,360. ** This 4-hour support and trendline intersection point; if broken, target $62,662→ $60,000. A breakout above $65,600 is needed to indicate a reversal; otherwise, it will be a bear market relay.
**Direction: Bearish. ** US-Iran conflict + ETF inflow collapse + trendline suppression, triple pressure. Don't rush to buy, wait for signals.$GRAM interest is so high, the interest dog whale wants your principal.A brief explanation of $AAOI yields:
Its hyperscale data center customers are expected to complete full certification for their 1.6T products within the coming weeks.
(The second plan to help boost revenue, timeline)
- AOI is still believed to have the largest AI DC transceiver production capacity in the United States.
(Reaffirming his ambitions when competitors might be suspended)
The facility for InP capacity is expected to be operational in early 2027.
(The timeline for future capacity increases is for reference only)
Total capacity approaches 200,000 units per month, and will reach 650,000 units per month (800 g/1.6 tons) by the end of 2027. It is expected that by the end of 2027, capacity will reach 930,000 units per month.
(This is the slope I wanted to see)
- "Increase production capacity for our external light sources or ELSFP (co-packaged optical components or CPO)." We expect to gradually increase production later this year and begin in 2027, ultimately reaching about 400,000 units per month by 2028.
(It takes some time to convert it into income)
"As we mentioned earlier, we have been producing lasers ourselves for many years. This has enabled us to avoid some of the shortages faced by other companies in the industry. ”
(Vertical integration bull market case during the continuous wave/electromagnetic laser shortage)
We believe that CPO will continue to drive demand growth for high-power lasers in the future.
(Verification of papers on the CPO industry)
- "Achieving our long-term goal of restoring non-GAAP gross margin to around 40%"
"At the end of the second quarter, our total cash equivalents stood at $508.8 million."
I need to double-check whether the ATM has completed the withdrawal.
"Our current capacity limits our overall revenue capacity, especially in 800G products." "If we can increase capacity, we can ship more now."
Demand > Supply verification.
"Most of the new capacity will be located in the United States. Even so, I want to emphasize that, as I have always emphasized, this is far from meeting customer demand. Customer demand still needs to increase by 20% to 40%. ”
Evil photonics requires industry-wide validation; reading through $LITE, $SIVE/$JBL, and more is truly astonishing.
"It's unlikely in the next two or three years, especially given such huge demand. Got it? Even if you combine technologies like artificial intelligence, $LITE, $COHR, and $AVGO, it's still difficult to meet customer needs in the coming years. ”
More verification of optical industry demands.
- CPO timeline: "If you mean truly high-volume manufacturers (targeting the CPO market), I think it's more likely by the end of the third quarter next year" and "We have been working closely with at least five customers."
If you care about current earnings (which I actually don't particularly focus on),
Revenue: $191 million, compared to $190 million in the same period last year
Earnings per share: $0.06 vs. $0.02
In short: demand in the laser and optical sectors is exceptionally strong. This somewhat confirms the Lumentum CEO's statement that the laser shortage is more severe than the memory shortage.
The 2027 capacity ramp-up plan is proceeding as scheduled. According to their previous earnings call, the capacity inflection point is expected around early next year.
AAOI currently has customers. The limiting factor is the production of lasers and transceivers. #闪迪财报双超预期, $14 billion in new buyback authorizations #Circle财报后押注Arc Can USDC see new growth? #财报观察员: Mixed results, the unlocking is imminent! What is SpaceX's outlook going forward? “沙特拉响警报：伊朗支持武装或发动多线攻击，能源设施成潜在目标”。结合当前市场背景，该事件对黄金和原油的影响可从以下三个维度分析：
对黄金的影响
- 短期避险情绪推升金价：地缘冲突爆发初期，市场避险情绪集中爆发，资金会迅速流向黄金等避险资产。例如2026年2月美以对伊朗发动军事打击后，现货黄金一度触及5409美元/盎司。当前沙特拉响警报，若冲突升级为实质性军事对抗，黄金价格有望再次冲高。
- 中期通胀与利率预期的博弈：中东局势升级常伴随霍尔木兹海峡封锁风险，推升国际油价，进而引发通胀担忧。若通胀预期上行导致美联储降息预期后移、高利率维持时间拉长，黄金作为不生息资产的机会成本上升，可能压制金价；但若市场将冲突理解为“滞胀”风险，黄金抗通胀属性将支撑价格。
- 长期配置价值支撑：全球央行持续购金、去美元化趋势深化及地缘冲突常态化，为黄金提供长期配置价值。若冲突导致全球信用收缩或经济放缓，黄金的避险与抗通胀双重属性将进一步强化。
对原油的影响
- 短期供应中断预期推高油价：沙特是全球最大石油出口国之一，其能源设施（如炼油厂、港口）若遭袭击，将直接导致原油供应中断。历史数据显示，2026年3月拉斯塔努拉炼油厂遇袭后，布伦特原油单日飙升超10%；2026年7月吉赞及延布炼油厂遇袭后，国际油价瞬间冲破每桶100美元。当前沙特拉响警报，市场已提前计入供应风险溢价，油价有望继续上行。
- 中期运输瓶颈放大价格波动：霍尔木兹海峡是全球约20%海运石油贸易的咽喉，若冲突导致海峡封锁或航运受阻，全球原油运输将面临严重瓶颈。例如2026年7月红海航线关闭迫使油轮绕行非洲好望角，单程增加10至14天航程，全球可用船只总量锐减，运价飙升，进一步推高油价。
- 长期供需格局重塑风险：若冲突持续升级，沙特可能被迫长期降低原油出口量，全球原油供需格局将被重塑。高盛警告，若航运中断持续，布伦特原油价格可能在2026年第四季度突破每桶120美元，极端情况下达140美元。
风险提示
- 冲突规模可控则金价或回落：历史规律显示，若冲突为有限军事打击，金价可能在冲高后回落；若冲突持续升级，避险情绪造成的溢价水平将进一步扩大。
- 美联储政策是关键变量：若通胀压力迫使美联储维持高利率或推迟降息，实际收益率上行将压制金价；若冲突引发“类滞胀”或经济放缓，迫使美联储转向宽松，则黄金将获避险与抗通胀双重驱动。
- 国际社会调解努力影响局势走向：需关注美国、俄罗斯等大国的调解努力，以及各国政府的应对措施，这些关键变量将直接影响冲突的规模与范围。 太巧合了吧
每次加密货币牛市都开始这两个信号。
- ISM制造业指数高于55
- 罗素2000指数突破
2016年当两者同时发生时，加密货币迎来了第一次牛市。
同样的格局在2020年再次出现，将市场从4000亿美元推升至超过2.5万亿美元。
2025年，这从未发生，因为ISM一直低于50。
现在它回来了。
- ISM刚刚达到55.6
- 罗素2000刚刚创下历史新高
如果历史重演，我们距离一次重大牛市只有几个月的时间。 Recently, I discussed with friends the business prospects of "C2C (Person-to-Person) + Blockchain Consensus," discussing the fundamental logic of the generational evolution of major industries throughout history (transistors replacing vacuum tubes, cars replacing carriages), and distilling some profound business insights to share with everyone: 1️⃣ Why is "C2C + Blockchain Consensus" disruptive? The traditional internet is essentially a "B2C intermediary model"—although both ends are individuals (C2C), there is a centralized platform in the middle that takes a 10%–30% commission. The combination of "C2C + blockchain" hits the core intention of crypto technology: demediation and trustless collaboration. Replacing 'intermediary extraction' with code/algorithms: transaction value flows directly between buyers and sellers, minimizing transaction friction; From a "trusted platform" to a "trusted code": using decentralized custody (Escrow), multisig, and smart contracts to ensure contract fulfillment without third-party guarantees; Data and credit return to users: With DID (Decentralized Identity), credit assets are no longer tied to a single platform but "follow the person." 2️⃣ Disruptive Innovation: Why does every industry experience a "boom and decline" at its peak? Throughout business history, every industry and technology has its S-curve. When an industry reaches its peak and has a huge user base, it inevitably accumulates ultimate pain points that its own model cannot solve. And the new era is always born when old pain points are brutally broken