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BTC is still around $75,500 in the afternoon. The drop after last night's bill vote has not been largely recovered during the day.
Two observation points were noted this morning: whether BTC can recover half of last night's drop, and whether ETH and SOL can stop underperforming. OKX spot data shows that SOL's drop in the past 24 hours is still more than twice that of BTC, and ETH is also weaker than BTC. SOL has slightly lifted from the morning low, but this extent is not enough to support the judgment that "risk appetite has returned."
For now, I am keeping small coins on the watchlist and not rushing to buy just because they have fallen more. If BTC can regain the range lost last night, then we will see if ETH and SOL can catch up; if it continues to hover at low levels, the morning rebound conditions are considered not met. Before the Federal Reserve's results come out, this current calm should not be overinterpreted.
Data: OKX spot. Personal observation, not investment advice. $BTC Be aware of the risks
On September 16, according to SlowMist monitoring, BonfireSwap on BSC was attacked, resulting in a total loss of about $50,000 in assets for token holders. The cause was the lack of access control in the transfer function of its router contract. The function did not check if msg.sender == from, nor did it verify the caller's authorized allowance for from, allowing anyone to set the victim as from and themselves as to. The attacker exploited the pre-approved allowance to drain the victim's tokens and forwarded funds through the same token pool exchange. A total of 41 token holders who authorized the router contract were affected in this incident.$CAP To be honest, I myself thought it was risky for this trade to last this long; luck played a big part.
Last night at dawn, I was watching CAP. It pulled back and held steady, with buyers stepping in below. I judged it was stabilizing, so I lightly opened a long position. I didn’t go all in, just advised to hold as long as it didn’t break the level, and not to get shaken out by small fluctuations.
From 0.04696 to 0.05958, a floating profit of +268.73%, it delivered the results. The earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is truly rewarding.
I took profit on 70%, keeping the remaining 30% at cost price as protection. Risk control is done upfront—that’s called being rational; cutting losses later is called making a tough decision. Let profits run when pushing forward, but don’t let gains turn uncomfortable on a pullback. Don’t be greedy for the last bit; take profits when you should.
The market waits for the right moment, and profits come from holding. For those who haven’t entered yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush. Wait for the next signal before moving; there will be more opportunities, so don’t be anxious.
$BTC $ADA 现在更像洗筹和博弈的夹缝期，不是追涨阶段。 BTC和ETH一起走弱，小币却反弹，这算真扩散吗？ 昨晚盯盘有种很微妙的感觉，大饼二饼同步往下压，BTC跌到75800附近创出新低，ETH也卡在2400下方抬不起头，两个权重像商量好了一样。但另一边，ZEC完全不理大盘，1040的底没破，一分钟K线像老奶奶爬楼梯，慢但稳，一路磨到1150上方。UNI也在悄悄回血，USELESS从0.033连续拉升，今天还涨了12%，逆着大方向走。 这里真正要看的，不是某个币涨了多少，而是跨市场联动有没有松动。美国加密法案没通过，本来是压制风险偏好的事，可小币却集体反攻，说明有一部分资金在赌坏消息已经出尽。这种走法通常出现在两种情境：一是聪明钱提前埋伏17号的利率预期，二是有人刻意拉高为后续出货做情绪铺垫。两者盘面很像，区别在于量能能不能持续，以及BTC能不能止住新低。 偏多的路径是，小币独立走强慢慢把情绪拉回来，BTC在75800附近横住，ETH重新站上2400，风险偏好从收缩转向局部扩散，山寨季的苗头就出来了。偏空的风险是，权重继续破位，小币的逆势只是短命反弹，等流动性一收，涨得最猛的反而回吐最快。跨市场联MARKET RESET — TWO SHOCKS AT ONCE
$BTC $75.68K, $ETH $2.40K, $SOL $97.13.
This looks like more than a simple pullback. The CLARITY Act failed to advance in a Senate procedural vote, while markets are also focused on the FOMC decision on September 16.
With the regulatory catalyst losing momentum and the Fed becoming the key variable, capital could remain cautious.
The question now isn’t “where is the bottom?”
It’s “when will liquidity return?”
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek
#CLARITYVoteFails50-49 As the FOMC approaches, funds tend to favor short-term speculation, with external strength and internal weakness coexisting. This divergence is often used to create false breakouts. If $BTC pushes up, there is dense trapped volume around 82500, making the probability of a false breakout relatively high; on a pullback, first watch 76000, with an extreme scenario at 73500. $ETH struggles to hold around 2700, with a risk of a spike at 2430; if it breaks down, look towards 2100. $SOL is likely to pull back after surging to 210-220, with support at 185 and a break below 165. $LINK faces resistance between 24 and 25, with a pullback to 20.5 and a breakdown below 18. $TON may retract to 6.6 after rising to 7.2-7.5, with a break below 6.0. If BTC first fakes a new high, major altcoins may simultaneously surge, and after follow-up funds enter, the main players may use the opportunity to distribute, making late buyers prone to being trapped at local tops. The risk lies in policy wording leaning hawkish, which would amplify the above pullbacks and deepen spikes due to liquidity tightening; the key observation is whether BTC can hold above 76000 with volume rebound after the meeting. If volume and price do not align, the rebound is more likely a bull trap. It is not advisable to hold heavy one-sided positions before the policy meeting; wait for trend confirmation. The above is personal speculation and does not constitute investment advice. Please control your position size and risk.It's been fifteen days since listing, bro, and you haven't even formed a decent moving average yet. $CP, how do you even have the nerve? If it really can't manage, just draw one yourself to comfort everyone!!
No wonder you became a negative example; bottom-fishers keep coming wave after wave, only to find each wave has no bottom...
User numbers are rising, prices keep falling. The protocol reports wallet connections and app deployments are still going up normally, but the market side gets cheaper day by day.
Everyone talks about $CP's technology, yet no one is willing to pay for it. Seems like everyone's really scared of getting cut...
So I don't think its bottom lies in the candlestick chart. A chart that hasn't even formed a complete moving average yet, talking about support is just self-deception. Especially with how pathetic it looks now, even I have lost judgment on the candlestick analysis. Let's just see if the Fed can say something tonight—whether it's a one-time tightening or continuous tightening.
If it's the former, it gets a breather; if the latter, it still has to look for a bottom. This is the worst part about small-cap coins—their fate isn't decided by themselves!
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ After finishing the designated driver run, I slumped on the sofa and opened the app. ETH lost another 2400, now at 2391. The trend was obvious—weak decline, no argument.
Continue holding short positions, targeting 2300. But honestly, tonight's mood watching the market has nothing to do with the orders.
At 2:15 a.m., 60 senators decided whether ETH could transform from a "virtual token" into a "digital commodity" over the issue of raising their hands. I was so nervous about this that my palms were sweating.
This year, I haven't mentioned it to anyone, but I'm still trading cryptocurrencies. When neighbors ask, I said I quit early. Someone in the classmates' group chat posted their earnings, but I scrolled over and pretended not to notice. No one knew there was an OKX hidden in their phone, and even less that it contained an ordinary person's obsession to turn things around.
If ETH really gets official status tonight—whether commodities or securities—I won't add to my position. I just want it to stand tall for a moment, so everyone seriously calls its name.
As for shorting, where do you see it? Share your thoughts in the comments. #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 The most important thing for $BTC in the next three months is not to fantasize that the bull market will return immediately, but to verify whether 58,000 is truly the bottom of this bear market.
This indicates one thing: 58,000 might be the bottom, but 82,000 has not yet proven that the bear market is over.
From 58,000 to 82,800, the increase is nearly 43%, which looks more like the first strong recovery after a deep bear market drop. Now, with the pullback from 82,000, I am more inclined to define it as a stage top rather than a normal shakeout in a bull market.
But ETFs are not perpetual motion machines. With capital outflows reappearing in mid-September and derivatives leverage not fully cleared, I don't believe that 76,000 can directly start the second main rise.
My main path for the next three months is: first a drop, then consolidation, and finally choosing a direction.
72,000 is the first support
68,000 to 70,000 is the most important observation zone
64,000 to 66,000 is the last defensive line of the bottom structure
Later, there will be another challenge to 80,000 to 82,000. Only a real breakthrough of 83,000 to 86,000 will make me start discussing a trend reversal. Conversely, if 64,000 is effectively broken, 58,000 will likely be tested again, and in extreme cases, watch out for 52,000 to 55,000.
In short: the most intense phase of the bear market may be over, but the bear market has not been proven to be over. 82,000 looks more like a stage top. The real opportunity in the next three months is not chasing the rise, but waiting for the market to complete a second verification of the 58,000 bottom.Someone in the group bluntly said: "If you dare to pump, I dare to dump!"
And the person who said this is the producer of this coin, the miner. The price curve of $FIL has indeed been confirming this statement.
This week it dropped nearly 10%, making it one of the worst performers among mainstream coins. The reason seems macroeconomic, but the deeper layer is hidden in that sentence above.
It has a repeatedly mentioned price pattern called an inverted V: a spike up quickly gets hammered back down, many times back and forth. Because its supply comes from mining output, miners have to sell a portion daily to cover electricity and equipment costs. When the price rises, they sell more eagerly—finally able to recover more capital. So every time it rises, there’s a group of people who must sell standing overhead.
$FIL is currently still above the 20-day moving average at 0.79, but the 5-day and 10-day moving averages have already turned downward; the thickest resistance above is the spike at 1.03 from the day before yesterday, and the support below is the 60-day low at 0.611. Trading volume in the past two days has increased to 1.4 times the monthly average, and this volume is pushing downward.
On the other hand, its issuance also has a schedule: the lock-up period ends in mid-October, and the new issuance for the whole year is expected to be cut by three-quarters. The supply side is tightening, but the demand side line is still so thin it’s almost invisible.
I believe in its supply reduction, but I don’t believe in its demand.🔷 Crypto buys Farage: $97M for tax cuts
• Two crypto billionaires (Delo, Harborne) gave Reform UK Farage £36M = $97M
• The largest donation in UK history
• Reform promises: to cut taxes for crypto firms, limit regulation, lobby the Bank of England
🧠 Crypto is buying a party for the first time, not lobbying an existing one. $97M is a bet on Reform's victory and rewriting the tax code.
⚠️ One scandal — and crypto loses Farage, and Farage loses crypto.
$BTC $ZEC is privacy + momentum. After a vertical run it is a crowded trade, not a cheap hedge. Respect both the trend and the wipeout.
$DOGE is pure liquidity and social volume. Useful as meme-beta, poor as a thesis.
$LINK is oracle infra priced like a risk asset.
Real usage will not bid it if DeFi volume and $ETH beta roll over.
They only correlate in one way markets. Strategy did not continue buying BTC but instead used about $139 million to repurchase STRC. This move indicates that the Bitcoin treasury company is also starting to seriously manage its liabilities.
STRC is a type of preferred stock with a fixed dividend target. Strategy previously stated that when STRC falls below $100, it would repurchase based on price and liquidity. This time, it bought back about 1.42 million shares, which means the company considers it more cost-effective to repurchase its financing instrument at a discount than to immediately buy more BTC.
The logic is not complicated. Repurchasing STRC can reduce future dividend expenses, support the price of credit products, and also demonstrate to the market that the company will not only focus on expanding the number of BTC but also care about holders of financing instruments. For a treasury company relying on capital market cycles, the confidence of creditors and preferred stock investors is as important as the BTC price.
I actually think this is a sign of Strategy's maturity. True capital allocation cannot rely on just one button. Buy BTC when it’s cheap, repurchase liabilities when they are discounted, and hold cash when liquidity is tight.
Faith can be singular, but the balance sheet cannot. A company that only buys coins is a trading tool; a company that knows when to repair its capital structure is a real enterprise.
#Strategy回购约1.39亿美元STRC $ZEC The sword over privacy coins is still hanging, but suddenly it has come alive these past two days
Trading volume has surged to an unprecedented level, and the community is starting to shout that privacy coins are back. I know this story well, but this time I dare not get carried away.
The logic behind privacy coins has always been solid; it's natural for people to want to hide their money. But the sword has always been hanging, as countries have never softened their gaze on anonymous transfers.
My judgment: This wave of ZEC is funds betting on regulatory compliance expectations, not a fundamental change. You can cautiously position a small spot holding to follow the narrative, but don't go heavy; a single regulatory statement can kill this sector. A single-day trading volume breaking $1.3 billion is fierce, but the sharper the blade, the faster it wears out.
Think carefully before acting, don't get hooked by a single line. Focus on spot trading, and keep your position under 20%.From Liquidation to Stable Profit: The Comeback of a 44% Win Rate Strategy
Three years ago, I was liquidated.
I clearly remember that night, Bitcoin had a big bullish candle, and my short position instantly went to zero. Staring at the words "Forced Liquidation" on the screen, I smoked an entire pack of cigarettes. That was my third liquidation, and I had less than 200U left in my account.
I refused to accept it. I started studying frantically, looking at indicators, drawing trend lines, and watching the market until dawn. But what was the result? Still small wins and big losses, occasionally making a little profit, only to lose it all in one impulsive trade.
Until one day, during a review, I noticed a strange phenomenon.
I turned this logic into a simple strategy:
After a signal appears, don’t enter immediately, but wait for a breakout!
If the price doesn’t break out, just wait; if no trade occurs after more than 5 candles, cancel the entry.
Once the price exceeds the entry price, I cancel the stop loss and let the profits run.
Only when a reverse signal appears do I close the position.
Sounds simple, right?
But when I backtested it on historical data, I was shocked.
895 trades, with a win rate of only 44.13%.
That means more than half of the trades were losing trades. I almost gave up. But then I looked at another number: the profit-loss ratio of 2.02.
This means that when I lose, I lose 1 unit on average, but when I win, I earn 2 units on average. With a 44% win rate!
I know many people would scroll past when they see a 44% win rate. But I want to tell you, those who truly survive in the market are never the ones who show off winning trades every day, but those who can control losses and let profits run.#中东能源风险推高油价
Middle East Energy Situation Intensifies: Current Status, Transmission Paths, and Global Market Impact
1. Current Core Conflict: Two Major Energy Channels Under Pressure Simultaneously
1. Strait of Hormuz: Responsible for about 25% of global seaborne crude oil and 19% of LNG trade. Recently, tanker traffic has sharply declined, insurance premiums have surged, many shipowners are rerouting, increasing transportation time and costs.
2. Bab el-Mandeb Strait - Red Sea Route: Houthi forces continue to attack Saudi refineries and east-west oil pipelines. Key Saudi oil pipelines have been temporarily shut down, Red Sea exports are obstructed, and the route originally serving as an alternative to Hormuz is also at risk, directly shrinking global crude oil supply.
Both export channels are under attack simultaneously, and alternative pipeline capacity is insufficient to fully compensate for the shortfall, leading the market to price in significant geopolitical risk premiums. Brent crude once approached $110/barrel, WTI stabilized above $100, and diesel prices rose more than crude oil, reaching new highs for the period.
1. Scenario 1: Stalemate Continues (Baseline Scenario)
Strait traffic remains low, energy facilities face intermittent attacks. Brent holds at $95-105/barrel, high oil prices continue to push up global inflation expectations.
2. Scenario 2: Conflict Eases
A temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran is reached, shipping resumes, geopolitical premiums quickly retreat, and oil prices fall back to the $80-90 range.
3. Scenario 3: Conflict Spills Over (Risk Scenario)
More oil and gas facilities are damaged, the strait is nearly blocked, Brent is expected to challenge around $120, and global stagflation risks rise rapidly. Tonight's FOMC meeting could be the most critical night for this round of crypto market decline.
Right now, the market is almost entirely betting on a 25 basis point rate hike.
But I actually think—
Tonight's real big shock might not be a rate hike, but rather "no rate hike."
It sounds a bit counterintuitive.
Normally, a rate hike is bearish for crypto, and no rate hike is bullish. But if a rate hike has already become a widely agreed-upon market expectation, then this bearish factor might already be priced in.
So if tonight there really is a 25 basis point hike, and $BTC holds up or even starts to rebound, I wouldn’t be surprised at all.
What’s truly interesting is the other scenario:
If the Fed suddenly doesn’t hike rates, will BTC definitely go up?
I don’t think so.
If a theoretically positive event happens but BTC still can’t rally, that actually indicates the crypto market’s weakness might be more severe than we imagine.
Especially since CLARITY was just blocked earlier, the whole crypto market has already dropped once, and now the FOMC is about to take over, which perfectly tests whether this decline is purely panic from news or if the market itself is really starting to weaken.
So tonight, I’m not going to guess what the Fed will do.
I’m only watching how BTC responds.
If there’s a rate hike and BTC doesn’t fall, that’s strength.
If there’s no rate hike and BTC still doesn’t rise, that’s true weakness.
The most important thing tonight might not be what answer the Fed gives, but how the crypto market moves after getting that answer.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#When I first entered the circle, I thought rate hikes meant all bad news was priced in, but that year my account taught me what a chain reaction really means.
If the Federal Reserve truly shifts from rate cuts to rate hikes, the first link isn't the coin price, but the rise in dollar financing costs. Leveraged funds withdraw first, then risk assets come under pressure.
The relationship between Walsh and Trump being called out indicates political constraints are loosening. So far, this is all that can be confirmed; there is no direct evidence yet on who will concede first.
Don't rush to conclusions. Watch the dot plot in the next rate decision statement; as long as the majority still points to rate cuts, this rate hike chain hasn't connected yet.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#10年期美债收益率突破5% #贝森特听证释放多重信号 $ETH $USDT Moved the Money, Not the Risk
A $230M Venezuelan oil deal reportedly used $USDT to move funds despite banking restrictions.
But only ~$28.8M of the contracted cargo was delivered, while total losses were estimated at ~$424M.
Key lesson: Stablecoins can speed up settlement, but they can’t remove counterparty risk.
Fast payment ≠ guaranteed delivery. ⚠️
#USDT #Crypto #Stablecoin #BitcoinClarity Act dies in the Senate, and the market gives back the “regulation hope” rally.
$BTC dropped from around $79.6K to $75.6–76.8K.
$ETH ~$2.4K
$SOL ~$100
$CAP ~$2.6–2.7T
Futures volume is rising while OI is falling — suggesting traders are reducing risk rather than chasing the move.
At the same time, oil is around $103, yields are higher, and the Fed is pricing roughly an 85% chance of a 25bp hike today. The bill isn’t the only pressure on the market
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek . This round of decline cannot be blamed solely on the FOMC; the market is re-evaluating two types of risks.
The CLARITY Act procedural vote failed 49 to 50, still far from the 60-vote threshold. It doesn't affect buying on the day but signals continued regulatory delays and increased risk compensation demanded by institutions.
Tomorrow early morning, the Federal Reserve decision will impact interest rates, dollar liquidity, and leverage costs. One factor raises long-term risk premiums, while another compresses short-term liquidity, applying dual pressure simultaneously.
$BTC fell 1.29%, $ETH fell 1.38%, $SOL fell 2.72%; $XRP dropped 7.76%, but $ZEC rose 4.94%. This is not a single macro sell-off but an overall risk reduction, weak coins being devalued, and strong narratives clustering happening at the same time.
My strategy has two layers:
BTC holding at 74,956, ETH holding at 2,358 — systemic deleveraging is not yet confirmed; BTC reclaiming 76,500, ETH reclaiming 2,425 — only then can mainstream recovery be considered.
If the market doesn't fall but a certain coin still hits new lows, that's a single-coin risk and should not be averaged down more as it falls. If BTC and ETH both break previous lows, altcoins should be reduced first.
Don't attribute all declines to the same reason. First distinguish whether the risk borne is macro risk, regulatory risk, or if the coins in hand truly have no buyers.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ CLARITY hasn't progressed, BTC took a hit first, now it's the Fed's turn.
The Senate procedural vote failed 49-50, BTC briefly dropped below 76000. The regulatory negative news has been partially priced in by the market.
The key focus tonight is just one thing: the Federal Reserve decision.
The 25bp rate hike is basically priced in; the real impact on the trend depends on Powell's wording and the dot plot—whether the hike stops after this or if there are more to come.
The 10-year US Treasury yield previously touched 5%, liquidity pressure hasn't been fully relieved. So tonight, it's not just about whether they hike, but how the market reacts afterward.
Short-term outlook:
Support is seen around 75000; if it holds, there could be emotional recovery; resistance is first at 78000-80000, only breaking above 80000 would open up space.
If support breaks or recovery doesn't materialize, no rush to act. $BTC $ETH #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ Willy Woo: Bitcoin has a 90% probability of having bottomed out, with an early bull market structure forming.
Long-term investors' liquidity is returning, and the liquidity structure indicates a high probability of a bottom. However, historical cycle patterns are gradually losing effectiveness, making the duration of the bull market uncertain.
Cycle theorists estimate a 40% probability of bottoming, while Willy Woo sees 90%. The disagreement lies in: cycle patterns vs liquidity structure.The compliance boundary starts before an announcement reaches the market.
New York federal prosecutors allege two former tech employees used nonpublic business information to trade derivatives for profit. The defendants are presumed innocent unless proven guilty. My read: employee access and trading controls deserve as much attention as transaction monitoring.
#DigitalAssetCompliance $LIT Now I don't dare to speak, afraid that if I say something, it will go back again, so I'll quietly watch first.
This trade is not a guess. Last night before sleeping, I glanced at LIT, the trading volume was low, the upward momentum was weak, so I reminded to short, placed an order at 4.5543, the position is average, but the direction is correct.
Just finished lunch and checked the market, 4.2730, +306.08%, those on board should be waking up laughing.
Have a strategy before the market, discipline during the market, and reflection after the market.
Put the big portion into the pocket first, close 80%, keep 20% at cost price for protection. Those who haven't gotten on board yet, don't rush, wait for the next signal to move.
$LAB $SOL Don't just focus on AI! Goldman Sachs and Nomura have laid their cards on the table: crude oil and US Treasuries breaking 5% are the real big players
Everyone is still debating whether AI can support high valuations, but Wall Street's top trading desks have already revealed their cards: the real market friction right now isn't AI, it's crude oil. Goldman Sachs and Nomura have surprisingly consistent conclusions—crude oil anchors US Treasuries, and Treasuries are choking risk assets. In the eyes of Goldman Sachs traders, energy plus interest rates are the only main theme currently; Nomura is more direct, calling crude oil the straw stirring global risk. As long as oil prices don't cool down, all valuation narratives are just downstream variables.
The chain reaction is brutal. The Persian Gulf is producing 6.7 million fewer barrels of oil daily, and when diesel prices rise, freight and PPI immediately spill over comprehensively, forcibly pushing long-term US Treasury yields above 5% to new highs. Nomura has even detected institutions frantically buying VIX call options, secretly guarding against extreme crashes. High oil prices combined with US Treasuries breaking 5% essentially form a stagflation poison that drains liquidity.
Both institutions clearly understand that war alone won't resolve the situation; the breakthrough depends entirely on diplomacy. The biggest focus next week is the high-level China-US meeting, and the US energy export ban is also a potential hidden obstacle. Before the situation cools down, the logic is ironclad: unstable energy means interest rates won't come down; if interest rates don't come down, risk assets can't breathe normally.
Don't think crude oil is far from the crypto world; once the tap is turned off, no matter how sexy the narrative, it has to bow.
#中东能源风险推高油价 The moment a pawn steps onto the seventh rank, the ticking of the clock is already counting down for the opponent.
Those who truly make a living from chess never ask "what happens next," only "if he is the strongest opponent, how would he respond." Cutting losses is never about conceding defeat, but about sacrificing a piece—provided you've already factored the compensation into that variation. Most people go wrong by treating cutting losses as running away, so every sacrifice is a giveaway; but positional sacrifices are meant to regain structure, initiative, and the lead in tempo.
Position management is not a numbers game; it’s about pawn structure. Once the pawn structure is loose, every move in the middlegame feels awkward; once the pawn structure is solid, even if you’re down half a piece, you can still grind out a passed pawn in the endgame. Those who frequently change their pawn structure never reach the endgame—they don’t even survive to the twentieth move of the middlegame, having already lost initiative due to their own hesitation.
Now this chessboard carries an additional identity: the shadow of a U.S. stock is placed on the blockchain chess table, meaning you’re effectively playing a blindfold game simultaneously. Your left hand holds the Nasdaq opening clock, your right hand the all-day, non-stop liquidity breathing. The time controls differ, the rules differ, but they share one heart. The linkage is no coincidence; it’s the same opponent making moves on two boards at once—he sacrifices a piece over there, and you lose half a pawn line here first. Those who don’t understand this layer only watch one screen counting rises and falls—that’s watching the game without seeing the momentum.
I’ve asked many peers: the biggest losses often aren’t from miscalculations, but from calculating correctly yet hesitating to move, or miscalculating but unwilling to admit it. Both types share one trait: they treat each move as an isolated decision, not as the nineteenth step in a twenty-move plan. Experience is valuable because it compresses similar mistakes into an instinctive intuition, allowing you to avoid re-deriving everything under time pressure. Others talk theory, about "what should be done"; true players talk about how they were once checkmated, and how they painstakingly clawed back point by point in the endgame.
The market doesn’t care if your answer looks good; it only asks one thing: when the opponent makes the strongest response, does your answer still hold?
The position never lies. It quietly leaves every miscalculator on this side of the seventh rank. #okxtradervoicesA few hours before Powell speaks, two knives are already at the neck of the crypto circle: one is regulation, the other is liquidity. BTC took the first hit, hitting 75,000. 😮💨
$BTC
The bill not passing is just the appetizer; the real thing shaking the market is Powell. BTC was once pushed down near 75,000 USD. I'm closely watching this level: if it holds, panic selling hasn't destroyed the structure; if it breaks down with volume, it will continue to look for lower support.
$ETH
I'm watching 2400. Once this round number breaks, sentiment will become more fragile.
$SOL
I'm watching 100. This level is the short-term confidence line.
I'm not rushing to short. After all the bad news is out, whether the price falls or not is the real signal. If Powell leans hawkish but BTC can't break below 75,000 and slowly recovers, the bears will actually be the ones to panic.
In short: don't guess, first see how 75,000 holds. I haven't changed my position, neither cutting nor adding. Don't follow me, don't go heavy, don't bottom fish.
#ThisWeekFOMCReveal, will the rate hike land? The current market pricing probability for the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points in September has exceeded 90%, which is almost certain. However, the real trading logic is not in the rate hike itself, but in the policy wording after the decision is announced at midnight. As long as the dot plot does not suggest a path of continuous rate hikes—that is, this rate hike plus a downward revision of future expectations—it will constitute a short-term positive for risk assets, and Bitcoin is expected to see a rebound window.ETH at $2390, do you dare to bet tonight?
First, look at the market: current price 2390, stuck above last night's low of 2358, short moving averages all pressing overhead. Daily MACD death cross, RSI 33-50, not extremely oversold, but not strong enough to buy blindly. Short-term bearish, mid-term not dead yet, tonight is a variable.
First thing: If the bill fails, $570 million longs get buried.
On September 15, the CLARITY bill failed to advance 49-50. The market voted with its feet, ETH dropped from above 2500 to 2358, $570 million longs liquidated.
Regulatory expectations disappointed, what got liquidated was leverage, not faith.
On the same day, ETH spot ETFs still saw net inflows.
Second thing: Fundamentals haven't collapsed, what collapsed is your sentiment.
On-chain data shows:
Q2 average TPS about 25.9, a record high
Staking ratio 32%-34%, exchange balances continuously declining
BitMine holdings close to 4.9% of circulating supply, about 5.96 million coins, still accumulating and staking
Glamsterdam upgrade, gas limit increase, mid-term bullish factors unchanged
ETH is still ETH, DeFi, RWA, stablecoin settlement layers, none lost.
Third thing: Technicals tell you, now is not the time to go all in.
Daily: failed to break 2667, volume dropped below 2500 and the lower edge of the ascending channel. Short MAs 5/10/20 bearish alignment, MACD death cross, momentum turning bearish.
4H: 2390 stuck in 2358-2408 range, resistance at 2420-2465, support at 2358-2380.
Supports: 2358-2380 → 2340 → 2300 → 2250-2274 (EMA50)
Resistances: 2420-2465 → 2500 → 2540-2567 → 2600-2667
2358 is last night's low and your psychological defense line.
Tonight's FOMC is the real killer move.
Market pricing for 25bp rate hike is 85%-93%, mostly priced in. What can really hammer it down further is rate hike + hawkish dot plot + Warsh press conference.
If just a rate hike with neutral wording → possibly all bad news priced in, quick rebound to 2460
If rate hike + hawkish → 2358 likely broken, next stops 2300 or even 2250
If unexpectedly no rate hike → immediate surge, but very low probability
You are not waiting for FOMC, you are waiting for a reason—to either convince yourself to add positions or to cut losses.
Bull vs bear, you decide.
On one side:
ETH ETF still seeing net inflows, institutions not withdrawing
BitMine hoarding 4.9% of circulating supply, staking locked
Staking rate 32%-34%, exchange balances dropping
Strong support at 2358-2380, multiple tests without break
On the other side:
CLARITY bill failed, regulatory expectations cooling
FOMC rate hike probability 90%, macro pressure
MACD death cross, short MAs bearish alignment
BTC weakening at 75,000-77,000, risk appetite shrinking
Trading strategy
Scenario A (highest probability): consolidation or dip
Rebound to 2460-2500, weak momentum (upper shadow, volume stagnation) → light short positions, stop loss 2540-2560, target 2380→2300.
Break below 2350 and fail to recover → follow trend light short, stop loss 2390-2410, target 2300/2250.
Scenario B: 2358-2380 holds, quick rally after decision
Light long in batches at 2360-2390, stop loss below 2330.
First target 2460-2480, second target 2540. Reduce positions at 2460, don't expect a direct return to 2667.
Scenario C: rate hike + hawkish dot plot
Possible spike. Do not add or average down, wait for 15-minute/1-hour close to decide.
Daily close below 2300, short-term clear downtrend wave, short first then watch for rebound.
Mid-term view: weekly not breaking 2200-2250 still seen as a bull market correction washout. To retarget 3000, must first reclaim and hold 2560-2667.
$570 million longs buried not because they were wrong on direction, but because they bet on the wrong timing.
Institutions are picking up chips below 2400, you are asking "to cut or not" above 2400.
Rate hikes are not scary, what’s scary is being fully invested waiting for the hike.
Tonight's FOMC, are you watching empty-handed or have you already bet on a direction?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ I am standing at the construction site of this cycle, with a one million dollar load-bearing slab beneath my feet. The Federal Reserve's September rate decision will be poured next week; this is not ordinary concrete pouring, this is a recalculation of the entire building's seismic coefficient. I won't put the entire million on a single column—that would be a code violation.
Let's start with the foundation. Crypto spot is the pile foundation and must be driven deep. I allocate 30% of funds to spot as the base position, selecting only mainstream assets with dense soil layers. Why? Because pile foundations can't be constantly pulled out for inspection; those who day trade are essentially drilling holes in the load-bearing columns.
The second layer is tokenized US stocks like $xEWY. This is a prefabricated modular structure—sounds great, modular and scalable—but I have to ask: who is handling the connection nodes? Cross-market linkage means an additional load transfer path; when the wind blows, stresses from two directions converge here. I allocate 20% to it as secondary beams to absorb the horizontal shear caused by the Fed's decision. Not a heavy position because the installation errors of prefabricated parts haven't been verified yet.
The third layer is regular fixed-amount investments. This is layered backfilling, compacting layer by layer, not aiming for one-time compaction. It takes 20% to counteract my own arrogance about market direction. The biggest enemy of an architect is not the client, but confidence.
The fourth layer is grid trading. This acts as expansion joints and dampers, dissipating energy through volatility. I allocate 15% to it. It works during sideways markets but will tear itself apart in trending markets—so boundaries must be set. A grid without boundaries is like building a skyscraper on soft soil.
The final 5% is reserved for options. This is structural insurance—not for profit, but to prevent collapse if I misjudge the earthquake's intensity. When I buy it, I treat it as a total loss; this is called redundant design.
Now, about structural judgment. What truly determines how tall this building can be built is never the renderings. The whitepaper is the blueprint, at best a conceptual plan. I look at the reinforcement ratio of the underlying architecture, the construction qualifications of the development team, and the reserved load capacity for long-term scalability. Old structures like ZER0 are being reinforced, while new structures like HYPE are doing grassroots promotion for first-time buyers in Japan—one is a renovation project, the other a new site development; the risks are not comparable.
The market on the day of the September decision is a structural load test. I don't predict whether it will rise or fall; I predict whose columns will crack under vibration and whose nodes will fail first. The decoupling of crypto and Nasdaq essentially depends on whether the connecting corridor between the two buildings still holds. If the corridor breaks, they resist earthquakes independently; if it remains, one side collapsing will pull the other down.
The goal of my allocation is not the highest yield. It is that when the vibration wave from the September decision passes through, the entire building only shows controllable cracks, not continuous collapse. I have reserved safety factors and redundancy; the only thing I haven't reserved is a gentle fantasy about the market. #okx1millionstrategistAll 9 fixed coins fell, trading volume expanded 3.57 times
Mainstream coins shifted from divergence to synchronized pressure in the short term. Between 15:00 and 16:00, all 9 fixed coin samples closed lower, whereas the previous hour had 6 rising and 3 falling; total spot trading volume increased from 32.3877 million to 115.76 million USDT, expanding 3.57 times.
XRP and ADA each fell about 0.97%, UNI fell 0.77%, OKB fell 0.74%; BTC and ETH fell 0.34% and 0.41% respectively, with trading volumes expanding 3.12 times and 4.25 times. If the next closed 1H still has at least 6 coins closing lower and sample trading volume not less than 115.76 million, the weakness continues; if at least 6 coins rise, this is invalidated. How much recovery in the rising side is needed to overturn this round of synchronized weakening?
#BTC #ETH #XRP #OKB$SKHYNIX suddenly takes off! Korean stocks +4%, U.S. pre-market +3%! But the real show hasn't started yet!
A single announcement from SK Hynix directly ignited the market: they plan to use Intel's U.S. factory to manufacture chips, causing Hynix to rise and Intel to follow suit.
Why is the capital so excited? There's one key word: tariffs!
The U.S. previously warned that chips not produced domestically could face up to 100% tariffs. Hynix moving production capacity to the U.S. is essentially preemptively avoiding this risk, so short-term funds are rushing in first.
But don't get ahead of yourself. Making chips in the U.S. is expensive! Higher costs mean profits will be squeezed. More importantly, whether the South Korean government will approve this and how the core HBM technology will be transferred are all variables ahead.
So this wave is driven by sentiment for now; don't rush to see it as a fundamental reversal.
Trading advice: 1260 is the key support/resistance line, 1280 is the first resistance. If it holds above 1260, consider light long positions; if it fails to break 1280 and falls below 1250, it means funds are starting to take profits, so don't get stubborn.
News sparks the fire, profits determine how long it burns.
#中东能源风险推高油价 #OpenAI拟IPO前融资，估值目标达1.2万亿美元
The boss has something to say
OpenAI is raising funds again before its IPO, targeting a valuation of 1.2 trillion USD. This is a 40% increase from the 852 billion in March. Altman just said last week that they wouldn't go public in 2026, but this week they started raising money—saying no with words but yes with actions.
What is this round of funding for? Investing in model training, inference infrastructure, and the enterprise market. Last week, OpenAI's model expenses surpassed Anthropic's for the first time, with Astra contributing 19%. In short, they are burning money to capture the market, and the valuation is fully supported by growth expectations.
What does this mean for me? AI giants continue to attract capital, which will draw liquidity away from the market. But currently, the crypto market follows macro trends, so AI funding has only an indirect impact on the crypto space. Tonight's FOMC decision, with a 90% chance of a rate hike, is the biggest variable. $BTC $ETH $SOL
I am currently out of position today. I stopped losses on long positions yesterday when the price fell below 75,000. I'm not rushing to enter now; I'll wait for tonight's FOMC outcome to see how the market digests the rate hike expectations. If the hike happens and the statement is hawkish, there may be further pullbacks. If they hold steady or lean dovish, I'll look for opportunities to go long again.
Being out of position and waiting for the market is part of trading. When things are unclear, don't force trades; patience is more important than direction.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop losses on your trades. Good luck.Currently, the market has almost no disagreement about a rate hike in September, with a 90% probability of an increase, assuming it will happen.
In other words, the news hasn't been released yet, but the price has already moved ahead.
A 25 basis point hike is normal; not hiking would be the real surprise.
But don't just focus on this one time.
What Powell says after the meeting and the subsequent path are the main events.
If he doesn't mention continuous hikes and only says to watch the data, the market will guess: this round will have at most one or two hikes.
And two hikes within the year are already expected.
So bad news might actually become a reason for prices to rise.
At present, the possibility of directly entering a cycle of consecutive hikes is low.
And once it falls within expectations, crypto might use the interest rate factor to launch a strong rebound or even a V-shaped recovery.
But before the results come out, funds dare not sell heavily nor chase.
So the market is hesitant.
We can first short to hedge risk and wait for the news to land before looking for buying opportunities.
$BTC $ETH #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ $IOST 又开始上涨了。 我们看一下它的K线图。 如果单单只看趋势的话，你会发现它有一种要大反弹的感觉。 但是，从数据上看，这个时间点并不太适合做多，因为它没有什么做多资金进来。 —————————————————— 我们看一下它的合约数据。 我们可以发现，它的合约持仓量在今天的这轮上涨中是在增高的，对应的合约多空比是在下降的。 这说明，现在市场是有很多资金进来做空的。 我们再看长一点时间的数据。 我们可以发现，它的合约多空比在之前的一段时间是有上涨的，但是对应的合约持仓量是在下跌的。 也就是说，在它下跌的期间，并没有什么资金进来做多，只是有很多的空头在止盈离场。 在之前，$LAB 之类的币反弹时候，也是同样的情况。 如果按之前的情况，这轮$IOST 上涨大概率是比较虚的。 —————————————————— 我个人认为，这是一轮诱多。 现在这个时间节点，并不是很适合去做多，我的想法是等再高一点做空。 如果它能插针的话，那插完针之后，我大概率就要空进去了。$CL
Today's crude oil movement is a typical "stepping down in a shake" pattern.
Starting from the high near 100.59 this morning, the price has been steadily declining with fluctuations. Several small rebounds in between failed to turn positive, indicating weak bullish strength and bears firmly controlling the situation.
Although the price once dropped to a low of 99.07 in the afternoon, it quickly pulled back and is currently hovering around 99.90.
In other words, the overall trend is bearish, but there is obvious bottom-fishing capital intervention near 99.07, currently seeking support at this level in the short term.
Now 99.90 is a critical dividing line between bulls and bears, so don't rush!
The key is whether it can stand back above. If it can hold with volume, it indicates a temporary successful bottom test and a short-term long position could be considered.
If it continues to weaken and breaks below, be cautious of another test of the low support.
#原油供应扰动反复，油价高位波动 #中东能源风险推高油价 05 Female College Evening Review 🌙
The evening market slightly retreated, with $HYPE unrealized profits falling back to +537.30U.
Looking at the whale data, the nominal long-short ratio is 219.41%, with bulls still dominant, but the price has started to weaken. Paper profits can shrink instantly due to a pullback; unrealized profits are never truly your money.
On the other hand, $BICO shows a loss of -1660.09U, still deeply trapped.
On the whale side, bears hold the upper hand, with 95.87% of short traders in profit, while bulls are struggling to hold their positions.
The data is clearly in front of them, yet they are reluctant to cut losses, always hoping for a rebound to break even.
The two most tormenting things in trading are:
Not wanting to take profits when in profit, watching gains evaporate;
Not wanting to cut losses when losing, allowing losses to keep growing.
Whale data can only be used as a reference, not as a protective talisman for entry. The market will never move as expected; always respect the market.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议
#AI发展焦虑升温，监管讨论升级 ETF withdrew $592.7 million in one day, BTC fell below 75,000, so who is still buying??
On September 15, BTC spot ETF net outflow was $450.4 million, and ETH also saw an outflow of $142.3 million.
Looking closely at the details, FBTC outflow was $214.8 million, IBIT outflow was $161.7 million, and GBTC outflow was $44.1 million. Selling pressure appeared simultaneously in several major products, making it hard to consider this as a mere occasional reduction by a single fund.
The market also looks uncomfortable.
The procedural vote to advance the CLARITY Act failed 49 to 50, BTC dipped to a low of 74,955, and ETH touched a low of 2,358.
But when the data was just verified, BTC bounced back near 75,500; 75,000 has not been completely suppressed yet.
Money is withdrawing, news is bearish, yet the price has not continued to drop with volume.
After the Federal Reserve's rate hike is implemented at midnight, if BTC can still hold 75,000 and reclaim 76,500, I will consider that this batch of bad news has begun to be digested by the market.
If 75,000 is lost again and cannot be recovered for several hours, the ETF selling pressure may not be over yet.
The same goes for Ethereum; if 2,400 to 2,425 cannot be reclaimed, BTC alone holding up is hard to reassure me.
So at 75,000, is there really someone buying, or is everyone just waiting for another cut at midnight?
$BTC $ETH
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ BTC's movement from $79.6K → $76.8K → ~$77.5K looks more like a volatility reset rather than a straight sell-off.
Three main factors driving the market:
→ FOMC uncertainty keeps traders cautious.
→ $79.5K–$82K remains a strong resistance zone.
→ A strong dollar and elevated Treasury yields continue to pressure risk assets.
But there are also positive details:
$76K support is still effective, and BTC has already rebounded above the short-term moving averages.
So I wouldn’t rush to label this as a trend reversal I shorted $MET all the way down from around 0.2279, and now the price has dropped to about 0.195, with an unrealized profit of 287.84%. This profit wasn't made by chasing the dip; the key was to enter the short position early after the structure weakened.
The 4-hour chart still shows a standard bearish setup, with the price consistently running below MA5, MA10, and MA20, and each rebound lower than the last. The MACD lines remain below the zero line, indicating ongoing bearish momentum, though the price is approaching the recent low of 0.1931, and the KDJ has been staying low for a long time.
Therefore, I won't add to the short position here; I'll hold the existing shorts and start protecting profits. If 0.193 breaks down effectively, there is room for further downside; if the price suddenly recovers above 0.202, be cautious of a potential oversold rebound. $BTC $ETH #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ US spot Bitcoin ETF single-day net outflow of about 450 million
The largest channel outflow since late June
On Tuesday, thirteen US-listed spot Bitcoin funds had a combined net outflow of about 450 million USD, the largest single-day outflow since the approximately 469 million on June 24. Fidelity's FBTC saw about 215 million outflow, BlackRock's IBIT about 162 million, Grayscale's GBTC about 44 million, which had a net inflow of about 160 million on Monday but flipped to selling the next day.
Bitcoin is still hovering around 75,710. The clear bill procedure vote has been posted, the rate hike decision has not yet landed, and channel funds are withdrawing first. The next few candlesticks will simultaneously trade the interest rate tone and whether the inflow can stop. The round number level is still fluctuating, and institutional channels have already made the first move.The Clarity Act failed, the FOMC took over, and the crypto world is facing a stress test.
The 60-vote threshold was not crossed, and the legislation failed. BTC responded to the decline, with the $75,000 mark repeatedly tested. But what truly held the market's breath was not the voting result, but the Federal Reserve's statement tonight.
Regulatory failures are just the first punch; interest rates and liquidity are the second punch. How Powell sets the tone will determine the short-term direction of risk assets.
Keep a close eye on three key coordinates:
BTC 75,000;
ETH 2400；
SOL 100。
If BTC loses and volume increases, the downside potential may open; If it can hold, or even slowly recover under negative news, it indicates that selling pressure has been traded in advance. At this point, there's no need to rush to be bearish; first observe how the market digests the bad news.
Hawks aren't scary; what's scary is that after the hawks, they still can't fall. If the Fed is tight but BTC can't break through 75,000, it actually indicates stronger support. Tonight, not guessing bull or bear, just looking at the reaction to 75,000.
#本周FOMC揭晓, can rate hikes be implemented? This trend is as smooth as if someone designed it specifically for me. When the screen is full of green, I know no one is catching $FLOCK on this rise; the trading volume is low, and it smells like a bull trap.
During the intraday plunge, I signaled a short at 0.08365, but the volume didn’t follow; each rebound was weaker than the last. Right after reading the negative news, while others were still panicking, I actually felt more composed.
Looking back now, at 0.06453, +457.62%, those on board must be waking up smiling.
First, take profit on 70%, securing gains. Keep the remaining 30% at cost price as protection; if it continues to drop, let the profits run.
Now is not the time to rush in; wait for a new structure to emerge.
Being out of the market isn’t a sin; recklessly opening positions is the real mistake.
Don’t feel bad if you missed this wave; move when the next signal appears.
$BNB $DOGE #AI development anxiety heats up, regulatory discussions escalate
The drama in the AI circle is getting more interesting; the government finally can't sit still and is preparing to call all the tech giants' bosses to the White House for a "chat."
So what impact does this have on the crypto world? I'll break it down into two layers for everyone.
First layer, short-term sentiment transmission. On September 14, as related discussions heated up, chip stocks like Nvidia, AMD, and Intel collectively weakened. The market worries that a slowdown in large model development will drag down GPU demand and computing power investment. When tech stocks catch a cold, Nasdaq sneezes, and as a high-beta asset, the crypto market's short-term sentiment will definitely be pushed down. The big coin stuck at 74,000 is partly due to this.
Second layer, the AI concept coins in the crypto world will undergo a major reshuffle. Traditional giants now face third-party evaluations, regulatory reviews, and antitrust disputes. Those "AI concept" projects in our crypto world that only write white papers and don't even have products will only die faster. Funds will concentrate on places with real revenue and closed business loops.
Here's my view.
Don't listen to what the big shots say; real capital expenditure doesn't lie. This so-called "security anxiety" is essentially a political-business game and valuation management. The computing power arms race simply can't stop; whoever stops first will be eliminated in the next era. For us retail investors, now is not the time to chase those purely speculative concept coins. Holding mainstream assets is better than anything.
What do you think?
$BTC $ETH Standard Chartered calls $ARB to $10, but there's a bomb you need to know about today!!!
The market crashed sharply, but ARB rose 3% against the trend, reaching a high of 0.1593. Many people are confused, so I’ll help you clarify the logic.
Bullish logic (from Standard Chartered’s report today):
Standard Chartered Bank covers ARB for the first time, with a 2030 target price of $10, implying 70x upside from the current price. The core logic is that Arbitrum’s business model has changed—Robinhood Chain runs on Arbitrum Orbit and is expected to contribute $5 million in revenue in September, 5 times that of July. Arbitrum has transformed from an "L2 issuing tokens" to "infrastructure collecting tolls from TradFi."
Bearish logic (the bomb happening today):
On September 16, 92.63 million ARB tokens unlock, worth about $12 million, accounting for 1.4% of the circulating supply. The linear release by the team and investors will continue until 2027.
My judgment:
Standard Chartered’s report is a long-term narrative, but the unlock is today’s real selling pressure. ARB is currently in a game of "narrative improving but chips increasing." At the 0.159 level, some of Standard Chartered’s bullish factors are priced in, but the selling pressure from the unlock has not been fully released yet.
👇 Do you hold ARB? Do you think Standard Chartered’s $10 target will come first, or will the selling pressure from the unlock push it back to 0.13 first?
$ARB $BTC Bill fails to pass, 120,000 liquidations, market awaits FOMC
BTC: Lost key support, ETF still receiving
$BTC fell below 76,000, with over 115,000 liquidations in 24 hours. But on September 15, spot ETFs still saw a net inflow of about $147 million, with institutional buying continuing. Price is falling, but funds are buying — this divergence needs attention.
$ETH dropped even deeper, with the highest 24-hour liquidation amount, mostly long positions. The long-term logic of declining exchange balances on-chain remains unchanged, but leveraged longs are being liquidated.
$XRP: Leading the mainstream decline, but whales are buying
XRP once plunged over 10%, with a sharp 7.5% drop in 4 hours. However, dense buy orders appeared in the 1.38-1.39 range, with shorts liquidated over $2.02 million in one hour. The biggest drop attracted the strongest bottom-fishing funds.
Tonight's FOMC rate decision is the real verdict. The bill's short-term positive impact has fallen through, and rate hike expectations are fully priced in. Clarity Act dies in the Senate. Market gives back the “regulation hope” bid.
$BTC slid from ~$79.6k to $75.6–76.8k.
$ETH ~$2.4k,
$SOL ~$100.
$Cap ~$2.6–2.7T.
Futures volume up, OI down money is closing risk, not chasing.
Same day: oil ~$103, yields up, Fed today prices an 85% chance of a 25bp hike. The bill isn’t the only seller.
Take: $76k has been tested all month. Don’t long headlines. Size down, wait for the FOMC reaction.
Not financial advice. Your risk$ETH View ETH liquidation map
The 890 million long liquidation below is too eye-catching.
A large amount of long liquidation is piled up near 2288 below; once broken down, it will trigger a chain stampede of longs;
Above 2550, there is still a 1.5 billion short liquidation volume. If the price surges upward, shorts will be concentratedly liquidated, which will reverse and boost the market.
At 2 AM Beijing time on Thursday, the Federal Reserve interest rate decision will be announced. The market probability of a 25 basis point rate hike has exceeded 90%. Oil prices have risen above $100, and US Treasury yields have broken through 5%. Tonight is destined to be a fierce battle.
The key is not just whether to raise rates, but also to watch the statements at the Powell press conference and the dot plot. Once the news lands, it is easy to break through one side's liquidation pool, with the risk of two-way harvesting right in front of us. Positions must be tightened at such moments.
Tonight is so scary…😭 Now everyone is starting to get nervous… frightening👻 $SOL $BTC
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 I just don't believe you can still pump
A meme coin
If you have the guts, keep pumping, don't pull back
Blow up all the shorts
I went short and saw 0.23 0.22
This trade situation
Shorted USELESS
Entry average price 0.239
Small position
700 units
10x leverage
Target 0.23016
USELESS pumped 17% today
Rushed from 0.197 to 0.242
Pumped over 20% in one day
Typical meme coin hype
No fundamental support
Purely driven by sentiment
These coins rise fast
And fall even faster
MA5(0.23347) and MA10(0.22642) have caught up
But MA20(0.21892) is far away
The deviation is too large
Needs a pullback
Meme coins fear short squeezes the most
The more you short, the more it pumps
Blow up all the shorts then drop
So position size must be small
Stop loss must be set
Don't fight it head-on
Target 0.23
When it reaches, take half off first
Watch the rest at 0.22
If it keeps pumping
Stop loss at 0.2482 triggers exit
Don't hold the position
Don't fall in love with meme coins
Shorting meme coins
Is a short-term game
$USELESS $BTC $ETH
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到