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The current market is a mix of bulls and bears, with institutional buying still fierce, but an undercurrent of old holders cashing out is also stirring. A key battle over $BTC pricing power is unfolding.
📊 Bull camp: Institutions and ecosystem flourishing comprehensively
▶ ETF frenzy: US spot BTC ETFs saw a single-day net inflow of as much as $999 million, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing over $380 million. Strong inflows in Q3 directly offset 92% of outflows from the first half of the year, showing clear institutional accumulation intent.
▶ Treasury strategy ramp-up: Strategy bought another 950 BTC, pushing total holdings to 846,000 BTC, becoming a steadfast spot lock-up party.
▶ Financial integration: Coinbase launched a 5.1% fixed-rate USDC loan, Moscow Exchange also introduced perpetual contracts, post-quantum security is advancing, and traditional finance is accelerating integration with on-chain ecosystems.
⚠️ Bear resistance: Old holders cashing out and hash rate decline
But potential challenges cannot be ignored. Glassnode shows weekly ETF net outflows of about $300 million; short-term holders sold 47,600 BTC near 88,000 for profit; a 14-year-old wallet liquidated 4,427 BTC (about $342 million); real hash rate has dropped 18.3% from its peak.
(Source: OKX Planet 09/23 09:13)
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 Continue holding short positions on $SKHYNIX, watching if the short-term previous low can be broken; if it breaks, it means the mid-downtrend channel will be formed. The upper limit of this rebound's amplitude is already insufficient, so the odds favor short positions.
$SNDK has also reached a short-term resistance area. After breaking through the consolidation box and continuing upward to hit the resistance, a divergence is formed, so the odds for short positions arise here as well.
Yesterday, the Nasdaq index broke to a new high, which will drive some aggressive funds to participate wildly. At this position, be cautious of chasing highs.
There are again a bunch of positive news releases: a six-nation meeting, US-Iran negotiations, which could further support the short-term upward trend and help it form. Let's watch and analyze. News is lagging behind the market, so the short-term operation plan will be adjusted based on the market situation.
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ 100,000 TPS is a long-term capacity, not a promotional figure for tomorrow's mainnet.
Ethereum's roadmap materials describe full Danksharding as pushing overall scalability to over 100,000 transactions per second. But this number depends on multi-phase upgrades, L2 execution, and data availability working together; it is not a single-chain throughput that will directly appear on the block explorer after the next mainnet upgrade.
Treating a long-term goal as a current feature creates false expectations. Ethereum chooses layered scaling: the mainnet provides security and data, while L2 executes a large volume of transactions. End users see the capability of the entire system, not all transactions crammed into one huge block.
The cost of this approach is that the experience can easily become fragmented, with assets and users scattered across different L2s. After capacity increases, interoperability, wallets, and unified settlement must keep pace; otherwise, even with high numbers, usage remains troublesome. Scaling is not just about throughput.
Whether $ETH benefits from the 100,000 TPS target depends on whether these transactions continue to use Ethereum's data, security, and settlement. The long-term figure can guide the way, but real valuation still depends on whether each step creates verifiable demand. Capacity without users is an empty lane; users without settlement connections may not necessarily benefit ETH.
Breaking down overall throughput helps avoid masking liquidity and experience fragmentation with a nice total number.The price of $HYPE has reached around $97, just a step away from $100
Seeing the hype price reminds me of the post about hype on June 5, 2026, where sentiment and capital drove hype to potentially reach $100
Hype has surged significantly, so from the current perspective, it seems "hype" was sold "early"
But personally, I think it was still a relatively good trade to close 🤔 At that time, due to Hayes' public sell-off, it triggered a decline and market downturn; hype far exceeded previous historical highs, all factors for selling
More importantly, $ETH and $BTC are at relatively low levels, and ETH and SOL are more attractive, with "cyclical" and certain characteristics 🤔 So selling "hype" to exchange for liquid capital is a relatively reasonable trade
If funds are willing to flow in later, and hype liquid buyback efforts increase, with more channels for capital inflow, it is expected to promote further hype price increases. If the momentum is strong, selling pressure is low, and buyback and burn continue, triple-digit hype might become the "norm" 🤔
#波动雷达：币种异动观察
@OKX星球 @米妮Minnie_OKX $ADA
Rising about 2.2% in a single day, is ADA catching up or is the trend changing?
While BTC consolidates at a high level, ADA outperforms some major coins, which looks more like capital seeking low-level elasticity. Catch-up rallies can be quick but may not have long-term fundamental support.
If the price raises its lows, and spot trading and on-chain activity increase simultaneously, the trend quality will improve.
If it only rises when major coins pause, and BTC weakens quickly once it pulls back, this is still high Beta rotation. Catch-up rallies can be traded, but sustainability must be verified by new demand.#BTC surged to $87000, and the total crypto market cap returned to 3 trillion
Last night's move was driven by news, not by adding positions.
Once the news broke, the price moved first, sentiment followed, and leverage pushed it further. It looked lively, but spot volume might not be able to keep up, and ETF and treasury buying didn't expand simultaneously. This kind of rally is fast but shallow: front-running before the news lands, and after it lands, the positive effect often fades, leaving those chasing the move as liquidity providers.
Adding positions is most risky at times like this. The rise is sharp, making stop-losses hard to set; when a pullback comes, leverage gets liquidated first. What you think is a chance to get in is actually paying for the news.
Strategy: don't chase overnight sharp rallies, wait for a pullback to confirm; consider scaling in only if key support holds; hold spot positions firmly, keep leverage in check, and continue to avoid data windows. The market is negotiated, and positions must be supported by structure. Without structure, don't act hastily. $MUBARAK current price 0.07586, 24h +62.93%, trading volume 96.2M USDT, 30 K-line amplitude 58.37%; horizontally within the same sector, $TUT 24h +14.86%, trading volume only 10.1M, $XRP 24h +5.44%, amplitude 7.26% — all with bullish moving average alignment (MA5>MA20), MUBARAK's increase and volume are several times that of the others, and the funding rate +0.0375% is also the highest among the three, indicating that leveraged bulls are actively adding positions rather than passively following the rise. This is the strongest relative performer in this round of small-cap sectors.
Technical aspect: MA5=0.076484 crossing above MA20=0.073092 maintaining a golden cross, price standing above the short-term moving average; but MACD histogram -0.001138 is still negative, RSI 63.5 has not entered the overbought zone, indicating a high-level consolidation after a volume breakout rather than exhaustion. Bollinger upper band 0.088299 is the first resistance above, lower band 0.057885 corresponds to the breakout starting point. Fear and Greed Index at 71 is in the greed zone, risk of chasing highs exists, it is advisable to wait for a pullback that does not break the moving average before entering.
The direction is bullish. The recent trend of UNI has left many people stunned. From $3.16 at the end of August, it surged all the way to $10.85 today, a 145% increase in 30 days and a 270% increase in 90 days. It rose another 15% in 24 hours, directly breaking the previous high. How did this veteran DeFi blue chip suddenly become the leading driver of this market rally? Many only see the price increase but don't understand the real logic behind it. Today, I will break down UNI's recent surge, and after reading this, you'll know how to respond going forward. 1. Core catalyst: The SEC opened a door, and Uniswap is the only one with a license. On September 17, the U.S. SEC issued an "Innovation Exemption" statement, establishing a five-year temporary regulatory framework that allows qualified tokenized U.S. stocks to be traded on-chain through permissioned AMMs (Automated Market Makers). In plain language, this means Wall Street stocks can now be compliantly moved onto the blockchain for trading. After this news came out, UNI jumped directly from $6.63 to $8.49, a 28% increase in a single day. Why was the market's first reaction to buy UNI? Because Uniswap v4 launched the Permissioned Pools feature in July this year, specifically designed to connect with compliant institutions, and has already partnered with RWA companies like Superstate, Securitize, and Dowgo. Essentially, the SEC's framework is issuing a "compliance pass" for Uniswap v4's permissioned pool model. Note one detail: U BTC specializes in dealing with all kinds of dissatisfaction—don't be led by candlesticks anymore
At 82,000, how many people confidently entered the market without confidence? The previous few times it fell here, and retail investors developed muscle memory, thinking history would simply repeat itself. But what happened? The main force pulled back and pushed it straight to 87,000, causing the short sellers to collectively blow up their positions. This isn't a market rally; it's psychological warfare.
Institutions understand human nature: first let you taste a few sweet gains, then turn your "experience" into a trap. When you finally believe 82,000 is the iron top, it insists on breaking through; When you buy from 75,000 to the bottom, it insists on breaking through. K-lines are a script drawn for retail investors; every "support" and "pressure" could be bait to lure you in.
I've figured it out: don't place orders in crowded places. If there really is a pullback next time, 75,000 looks like a bottom, but most chances are a trap set for you. The real ones worth buying in batches are actually around 70,000—the place most people despair and don't dare to reach out.
This time I lost big, but I was completely clear-headed: the market isn't short of opportunities, but what it lacks is a brain that doesn't follow trends. I'll never recklessly place orders again. I'd rather miss out than make mistakes.
$BTC What taught me was not just about stopping losses, but also about not believing in the "consensus" of candlestick charts.
#BTC冲高 $87,000, crypto market cap returns to 3 trillion #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号? #美联储官员密集发声, how much longer will the rate hikes last? 1 million UNI tokens were withdrawn from Coinbase two hours ago.
At 10.07 each, that's just over ten million dollars.
Just after breaking the year's high, someone moved a large amount out of the exchange in one go.
This scene is very familiar to me.
Every time the price rises and people start shouting "bullish comeback," someone quietly moves their coins.
Do you think they are putting them into a cold wallet for safekeeping?
Or are they moving them out first, waiting for a better price to move them back in?
I don't know.
But to be honest, at this time and volume, this is not something retail investors would do.
What frustrates me is that such moves often speak before the candlestick chart does.
Money is moving, which means someone is already preparing for the next step.
As for where it’s going, keep an eye on whether there are similar withdrawals afterward.
If it’s just this one, it might be a portfolio reshuffle.
If a second or third withdrawal follows, then it gets interesting.
#CME拟推BCH与UNI期货 $UNI Brothers really have money: they just spent 10 million USD
Today $UNI broke through $10, hitting a new high for the year.
Just saw an address that directly withdrew 1 million UNI to a wallet. The withdrawal price was $10.07, worth 10.07 million USD.
But what's really interesting is the operation track of this wallet:
One day ago: first withdrew $80 worth of ETH for gas
Then: withdrew 1 UNI as a test
9 hours ago: maybe he forgot, withdrew 10 UNI as another test
3 hours ago: suddenly withdrew 1 million UNI
From testing 1 UNI to entering with 1 million, less than a day passed.
What does this mean?
First, this is a new wallet. No history, no other assets, directly holding 10 million UNI. This kind of "clean" position building usually means someone is making a clear allocation.
Second, tested twice before acting. 1 UNI, 10 UNI, both small probes. After confirming no issues, directly moved 1 million UNI. This is not impulsive, it’s a prepared move.
Third, withdrawn from an exchange. Chips flow from exchange to self-custody, reducing short-term selling pressure.
Combined with UNI’s recent narrative: SEC tokenized stock exemption landing, Uniswap’s permission pool being named, the market is repricing UNI’s role in tokenized securities.
This brother is ready to hold long!The Federal Reserve previously raised interest rates by 25 basis points, but the subsequent rate path was not as hawkish as the market had feared. CryptoTicker believes this actually pushed risk assets higher, with Bitcoin strengthening accordingly; at that time, over $445 million in crypto shorts were liquidated, including more than $230 million in Bitcoin shorts. The most important point here is not "why a rate hike is actually bullish for Bitcoin," but the expectation gap. The market never trades just on the rate hike itself, but on "whether the actual policy is more hawkish or more dovish than previously priced in." When investors had already prepared for a more aggressive tightening path, and the final policy signals were not as strong, risk appetite was restored instead. Bitcoin thus returned above $80,000. But macro factors can only explain why buying began to recover. They cannot explain why BTC was then able to consecutively break through $82,000, $84,000, and even $87,000 within a few hours. What truly caused the market to "accelerate upward" was the derivatives market. #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC 9.23 Has the bull market arrived?
1. I do not think a new bull market has started at all. If weaker, it is a mid-bear market rebound, ending around 94000; if stronger, it is the last extension of this bull market, similar to the 2021 pattern where 64000 was halved to 30000 before reaching a new high of 69000 again;
2. $BTC 94000-98000 is the watershed. If it can break through 98000, it has the potential to follow the 2021 pattern; if it cannot break through, the rebound is over. Some short positions might be able to be relieved, just wait. #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 Previously, funds were all rushing into $BTC, but now things are starting to look a bit different.
On September 22, spot ETFs continued to see inflows:
$BTC +364.4 million
$ETH +71.34 million
$SOL +28.87 million
The cumulative inflows have reached $56.52 billion for BTC, $13.59 billion for ETH, and $1.47 billion for SOL.
The big brother still takes the largest share, but ETH and SOL are clearly starting to attract capital attention as well.
This is actually more interesting than just seeing large inflows into BTC alone.
Because when funds no longer focus on just one direction, the market's trading space begins to slowly open up.
If ETH and SOL can continue to absorb funds, and BTC does not show obvious deceleration, then the market structure might be richer than a simple BTC-only rally.
But we shouldn't be too optimistic here.
The biggest risk in capital rotation is that it looks lively but is actually just short-term switching.
So what I want to watch next is:
Whether BTC is stable, whether ETH can follow, and whether the highly elastic strongman $SOL can hold the funds.
Only if these three signals appear simultaneously will the market really be interesting.
The above is just my personal market record and does not constitute trading advice.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC There are no significant large sell orders above until $90K.
There are also no significant large buy orders below until $81K.
This means that whichever direction it breaks through, it could move very quickly.
If it goes up first, resistance before $90K is light, making acceleration easier. Brothers, recently researching income in the crypto space, I found something outrageous.
The ones that can truly make sustainable profits might not be the coins we watch daily on the K-line, but the underlying crypto infrastructure.
As long as it can continuously generate cash flow, this thing is basically a money printing machine.
The most extreme example is Tether, with $183.3 billion in user funds, heavily allocated to short-term government bonds and reverse repos, earning $491 million directly in one month. This is no longer storytelling; it's real cash flow.
Circle is also strong, making $200 million a month, mainly from government bond interest and cross-chain business.
Hyperliquid earns $60.6 million a month, and even more impressively, about 99% of the fees are used to buy back and burn HYPE.
Pump.fun also makes $54.4 million a month, continuously earning from token issuance fees and matching fees.
These four projects have completely different ways of making money, but they all point to the same thing: cash flow.
In the past, the market liked to hear stories; whoever had the sexiest narrative was easier to follow.
Now more and more people are starting to ask:
Are you actually making money?
So now when I trade coins,
I no longer dare to just look at the K-line.
The K-line tells you the price,
but income tells you whether the project has the ability to sustain itself.
Brothers, when choosing projects,
do you care more about the story or how much money it can make every month?
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ 🚨 ETF funds are redefining the supply and demand structure of the crypto market
On September 22, spot crypto ETFs continued to show net inflows: approximately $364 million for BTC, about $71.34 million for ETH, and around $28.87 million for SOL. The cumulative inflows have reached approximately $56.52 billion, $13.59 billion, and $1.47 billion respectively.
From the capital diffusion from BTC → ETH → SOL, it seems the market focus is gradually extending from a single leading asset to more mainstream assets. If this trend continues, it may indicate that the scope of market capital participation is expanding, and liquidity is showing more obvious diffusion.
Meanwhile, as ETFs continue to absorb spot supply, the real question for the market is: as tradable chips keep decreasing, how much new capital will the next price discovery need to push the market to break through new ranges?
📊 Capital flows are changing, and the market structure deserves ongoing observation.
#BTC #ETH #SOL #CryptoETF #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Solana #CryptoMarketThe three major mainstream coins have shifted from weak recovery to short covering + ETF capital inflow. What needs more caution now is not an immediate major pullback, but the market misinterpreting the short squeeze as a new trend, chasing and adding positions around 86,000, 2,760, and 119.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
BTC: Reclaimed the long-term moving average, the strongest structure repair in nearly 300 days. Supports at 85,200, 84,000, 83,000; resistances at 86,800, 87,400, 88,000-90,000. The original short concentration zone from 83,000-86,000 has turned into short-term support. Medium-term bias is bullish, but the current price is better suited for waiting for a pullback rather than chasing highs.
ETH: On-chain and institutional funds continue to accumulate. Supports at 2,700, 2,640-2,560; resistances at 2,800, 2,890, 3,000. 2,700 is a key dividing line: if held, 2,800-3,000 can still be tested; if broken, look for support around 2,640.
SOL: ETF inflows present, contract positions proportionally high. Supports at 114, 110-107; resistances at 120, 123-125. Maintaining strength above 114; a break below requires caution for a pullback. Leverage heating up faster than spot demand.
Crypto total market cap returns to 3 trillion.
Today's focus: US PMI data, and the meeting window between Trump and Xi Jinping.
Personal opinion, not investment advice.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 The altcoin season is getting closer.
The OTHERS/BTC exchange rate has once again reached that long-standing descending trendline, which has been suppressing altcoins since 2022.
Now it’s at a critical point:
Break through and hold → Altcoins will take off directly
Rejected → Continue sideways consolidation at the bottom
Note, the breakout has not happened yet.
But after so many years of sideways movement, once the weekly candle cleanly closes above this trendline, the strength of altcoins will completely reverse.
A breakout wave will directly change the landscape.人是好赌的。 一旦用赌的逻辑来决策，方式就完全不一样 你告诉一个人，订阅费10美金 他会比功能、比竞品，思来想去要不要开通。 但是你告诉他，付100美金进一场抽奖，只要参与就送会员，箱子里有可能是150，也可能是80。 他愿意赌一把。 包在里面的那10美金订阅，眼都不眨。 币圈很多产品，其实都在用这套逻辑。 1/ 我们常常不是拒绝付钱 而是会拒绝确定性支出 赌的钱和正儿八经花的钱是两种账户。 如果把产品费用包进一个赌的入场券，转化逻辑立刻就变了。 大家计算的是能不能赚到5倍，10倍，有亏损风险？那我-20%止损，要抽点水？只要有10倍机会尽管抽。 2/ @UsePaid 你告诉我直接打钱给名人，不存在的。 但是机制换成——发一个币，一定的交易手续费给某个X帐号，这个币叙事好，有高倍可能，那抽就抽呗。 付款这个事情还在，只是被写成了“顺便的、还能参与一场流动” 钱从打赏变成了下注。 名人从收款方，变成了叙事锚点。 3/ 慈善也是，你告诉我这个三天饿九顿的兄弟向Giggle Academy捐点钱，疯了吧。 但是有10倍机会就不一样了。 公益是外壳，投机是引擎，外壳让付款变得正当，引擎让付款FLNC plummeted 15.36% in a single day on September 17, closing at $7.66, and further dropped to $7.27 by September 22. The main reasons are threefold:
① Cliff-like downgrade of earnings guidance: The company sharply lowered its full-year revenue forecast for fiscal 2026 from about $3 billion to about $2.4 billion, a reduction of approximately $600 million; adjusted EBITDA deteriorated drastically from an original loss of about $10 million to a loss of about $200 million, a worsening of $190 million.
② SEC officially intervenes with investigation: The company disclosed that the SEC is investigating its revenue recognition methods and internal control reporting. Regulatory investigation is the "upstream" issue among all problems because it directly determines the credibility of the $2.4 billion revenue figure and $200 million EBITDA data.
③ Delay in capacity ramp-up at Houston factory: Management blamed the delay on the capacity ramp-up at the Houston contract manufacturing plant and did not provide a revised timeline for full production.
---
🏦 Institutional ratings: Intensive downgrades, huge divergence in target prices
After the plunge, multiple institutions acted quickly, with astonishing rating and target price adjustments:
Institution Rating Change New Target Price
Baird Hold → Sell $3.00
RBC Capital Maintain Sector Perform $4.00
Piper Sandler Maintain Underweight $5.00
BNP Paribas Maintain Underperform $5.00
Mizuho Maintain Underperform $6.00
Jefferies Buy → Hold $7.00
Goldman Sachs Buy → Neutral $9.00
J.P. Morgan Maintain Neutral $8.00
Among 22 analysts, the consensus rating is "Hold," with an average target price of about $10.84, but the lowest target price is only $3.00 and the highest is $23, a rare divergence in recent years.
From a technical perspective, the 52-week low is $3.46, which is the most important current psychological and technical support level. The RSI(6) has dropped to 34.00, close to the oversold range, indicating a possibility of a short-term technical rebound. The daily candlestick chart shows short-term support near $7.01.
However, caution is warranted:
· Baird’s target price is exactly set at $3.00, below the 52-week low, implying some institutions believe the stock price may hit new lows
· Jefferies’ report points out that FLNC faces "execution risk and liquidity pressure," and if the Houston factory delay continues and the SEC investigation escalates, the probability of the stock price approaching the $3-4 range will significantly increase
· The current stock price of $7.27 still has about 52% downside to $3.46; given FLNC’s Beta and high volatility characteristics, this is not out of reach
Currently, I personally choose to gradually buy a small amount with low leverage and low position during this divergence. $FLNC Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $1 billion yesterday, and together with Ethereum, the total inflow is nearly $1.3 billion!
This data reveals that the core market driving force has undergone a phase shift:
Previously, the price rose from 76 to around 82, mainly driven by the liquidation of on-exchange derivatives causing a short squeeze, with the price increase triggered by passive buying from short stop-losses being hit.
Looking at last Friday's inflow data, $2 billion has flowed in within just two working days...
This confirms that real off-exchange funds are forcefully pushing up the bottom, not purely leverage-driven. Such inflow volume is quite rare compared to the past two years.
The only concern now is whether the buying pressure will be overextended in the coming days, making a slowdown in inflows more likely, but currently, no top structure has appeared.$BTC This is what a real bull market should look like.
BTC's intraday high reached 87,350, the highest since January 29. It started September with a gain of over 10%, the strongest September since 2012. The trading volume is backed by real money.
On Monday, the US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $999 million, the largest single-day inflow in 2026. IBIT alone took in $381 million, ARKB $289 million, and FBTC $239 million, with these three products accounting for 91% of the day's volume. The cumulative net inflow over three weeks is about $3.8 billion, the strongest three weeks this year. Leverage is also clean, with about $1.03 billion liquidated across the network, of which $840 million were short positions. BTC shorts were liquidated by $536 million, a typical market turnover after short sellers are cleared.
But don't get carried away. On-chain MVRV has just climbed back above the 365-day moving average, a signal that only appeared at the bull market starts in 2019 and 2023. CryptoQuant says holding above 1.62 could see $126,200. However, the Fed just raised rates by 25 basis points, which is macroeconomically unfavorable.
Technically, watch if 86,000 can hold as support; if it holds, challenge 88,000 to 90,000. If it breaks 85,000, don't chase the highs. Going forward, keep an eye on whether ETF inflows continue; if there is a single-day net outflow, the sentiment will change.
The narrative is real, liquidity is strong, but don't fight hard before 90,000 in the short term. 凌晨刷盘的时候，CORE又悄悄往下探了一截，群里几个人同时冒泡问同一句话。 为什么跌成这样还不走？ 其实这个问题我自己也答过很多遍。不是不想动，是动完不知道去哪。换仓怕刚卖就反弹，死拿又每天被K线折磨，最后变成一种奇怪的麻木，链上该stake就stake，涨了算运气，不涨就继续熬。听起来很摆烂，但这背后其实藏着一个很多人没细想的信号。 CORE这类老叙事币的疲软，不只是它自己的问题。它更像一面镜子，照出跨市场联动里最尴尬的那一档资产。BTC稳在高位的时候，资金优先抱紧确定性，ETH和主流Layer2吸走的是有叙事、有ETF预期、有机构故事的那部分钱。再往下，才是CORE这种既有社区执念、又缺新增买盘的中间层。它跌，不是因为出了什么大事，而是因为没人愿意在这个位置给它定价。 这就是跨市场联动最残酷的地方。当美股风险偏好回暖、BTC守住关键区间，照理说山寨应该跟着喘口气。但现实是，钱先流向最安全的地方，再流向最有想象力的地方，中间那批"曾经有故事、现在没催化"的币，被夹在两边，既吃不到避险溢价，也吃不到投机溢价。CORE现在就在这个夹缝里。 偏多的路径也不是没有。如果BTC能继续稳住、ETWhen others panic and you dare to go long, you deserve to make money this week.
A week ago, the Fear and Greed Index was stuck at 44, the market was lying in the neutral zone, with widespread selling pressure; no one dared to touch long positions, and short positions kept piling up. On September 22, the index surged to 78, jumping into extreme greed territory. Dogecoin rose 12% in a single day, and $5.66 million worth of short positions were liquidated that day, not a single one left.
The ones who recorded this turnaround in their ledgers were four giant whale wallets. Before the breakout happened, they had already placed $5.59 million in long positions; as the market turned up, unrealized profits followed into their accounts. They didn’t guess the bottom, nor did they wait for confirmation; they just reached out while others were staring blankly at loss screenshots.
The $DOGE line has never been prepared for by bystanders. Those who build positions in the panic zone don’t earn luck, but the segment others dare not catch. The market never gives a heads-up before paying out rewards; it only recognizes positions.$NEAR is currently the weakest among the three, with a short-term bearish bias, but it is close to the lower Bollinger Band support, making it suitable to wait for a rebound rather than chase the downside.
A horizontal comparison makes it very clear: $XRP is up 5.33% in 24h, with MA5 crossing above MA20, RSI at 64.8, making it the only strong bullish arrangement among the three; $PHA, although down 10.83% in 24h, still maintains a bullish moving average structure, with a positive MACD histogram, indicating a sharp drop without breaking support; meanwhile, $NEAR is down 2.91% in 24h, with MA5=4.3606 having crossed below MA20=4.4161, RSI at 48.5 below the bullish-bearish dividing line, and MACD histogram at -0.01881 clearly bearish, making it the only coin among the three with both "moving average + momentum" weakness, confirming relative weakness.
However, bears should not be overly excited. The current price of 4.332 is close to the lower Bollinger Band at 4.2474, with a 30-candle amplitude of 12.53%, indicating a compressed volatility range and limited room for further downside; meanwhile, the funding rate remains at +0.0100%, meaning long positions' cost has not been wiped out, and the fear and greed index at 71 is in the greed zone, with sentiment not yet turning to panic, implying a rebound could happen at any time. The better strategy is to wait for a rebound near the MA5 area around 4.36 before shorting again, rather than chasing the drop at 4.33. While others are still watching whether BTC breaks 87,000, $XRP quietly rose over 20% this week, breaking 1.6.
This coin has won all it could this year: the SEC lawsuit is completely resolved, seven US spot ETFs have been launched one after another, and Ripple has also obtained conditional approval from the National Trust Bank. Institutions are genuinely entering; cumulative XRP ETF inflows have nearly reached 1.7 billion USD.
But Ripple releases 100 million from custody every month, with 200 to 300 million actually entering circulation, at a speed two to three times that of ETF inflows. This Damocles sword is always hanging; don’t forget it just because the price is happily rising.
My own strategy: I hold a base position but won’t fully load up. I won’t chase above 1.5; I’ll wait until the logic of custody selling pressure smooths out. For now, I’m just going along with the market trend; I’ll consider adding positions only after a true breakout above the previous high. After $BTC price broke through the dense short zone of 82,000 to 86,000 USD, liquidations were triggered:
· Liquidation scale: Over 1 billion USD worth of shorts were liquidated within 24 hours; earlier, when breaking through 85,000 USD, the daily short liquidation ratio reached as high as 86% (648 million USD).
· Typical cases: Address 0xc3ed was liquidated 4 times consecutively within 14 hours, losing about 32.55 million USD, and after each liquidation, it re-shorted and was liquidated again. Another address 0xec0b had its 122.88 BTC short position fully liquidated.
· Market maker activity: Wintermute reduced shorts by 738 BTC net during this period, recording a loss of about 2.09 million USD, but after 10:30, it re-added small short positions, indicating ongoing high-frequency exposure adjustments.
Capital pattern: Shorts still slightly dominant
· The overall 24-hour long-short ratio is 0.972, meaning the value of short positions still slightly exceeds that of long positions.
· Mainstream exchanges are consistently bearish: Binance 0.9099, Bybit 0.9857, Hyperliquid 0.994.
After the squeeze, some traders began actively establishing new short positions, betting on a rebound top:
· Analyst Killa plans to establish short positions in the 89,000 to 94,000 USD range, hedging about 50% of BTC exposure, with stop-loss set above 97,000 USD. Recently, the big names in the crypto circle have started collectively turning bullish again. Saylor said "Just buy Bitcoin," CZ posted a cryptic tweet, and Musk shared a Bitcoin-related meme.
Many people saw the big names speaking up and rushed in with full positions. But let me tell you, $BTC is now at 86478, with resistance at 86800 right ahead. Is chasing long at this level really worth the risk-reward?
When I used to lose 200,000 U, I loved following the big names' trade calls. If they said buy, I bought; if they said go all in, I went all in. In the end, they made money and I lost because their cost basis was much lower than mine.
Now I've learned my lesson. I open positions with 5000 U, listen to the big names but trade according to my own system. Short at resistance around 86800, go long if it stabilizes at 86078, set stop losses properly, and don't hold losing positions. The big names' signals are references, not orders.
Remember, trading is your own business; if you lose money, no one will bear it for you. $BTC #6 weeks until the 2026 midterm elections. If we take the closing price on midterm election day as the starting point, how do the returns look for holding the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 for one year?
◦ S&P 500: Since 1950, 19 times up, 0 times down, average gain +15.4%
◦ Nasdaq 100: Since 1985, 10 times up, 0 times down, average gain +33.8%
Why do midterm elections have such magic?
Mainly because before the election, the market discounts uncertainty around taxes, regulation, and control of Congress. After the results, the policy path becomes clearer, risk premiums decline, and valuations begin to recover.
Of course, historical patterns do not guarantee the future, but the repeated validation over several decades at least suggests that the 12 months following midterm elections may be the most important window in the U.S. four-year political cycle for stocks.
Let's also take a look at BTC's situation —
◦ Bitcoin: Since 2009, 4 times up, 0 times down, median gain +68.6%
BTC is a bit more special. The bear markets in the four-year halving cycle coincided with midterm elections: 2018 overlapped with the bear market after the 2017 bull run; 2022 coincided with rate hikes and the bear market bottom amid Luna and FTX crashes. The 2022 election day happened to coincide with the FTX crisis outbreak, causing BTC to drop 10% that day with an unusually low starting point, which further amplified the gains in the following year Above $BTC 86k: Nearly $1 billion inflow in a single day for ETFs, but don't overlook these three contradictory signals
First, the bulls are strong:
On September 21, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $998.95 million in one day, the largest since October 2025, with IBIT at $381 million, ARKB at $289 million, and FBTC at $239 million.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) bought 950 coins in the week of September 20, at an average price of $79,670, holding 846,000 coins.
Bloomberg's Seyffart estimates the average cost for ETF holders is about $81,722 — after the price surpassed this, holders are overall profitable for the first time since January this year, temporarily removing the wall of selling pressure from break-even.
But these three points are rarely mentioned:
1. Short squeeze contribution is too large. About $612 million was liquidated in the past 24 hours, with shorts accounting for 87% (about $535 million). Passive buybacks will be exhausted, and who takes over afterward is the real question.
2. Overheated sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index is at 78, in the "Extreme Greed" zone. At the same level, entering at 50 and entering at 78 have completely different tolerance levels.
3. Net outflow for the entire 2026 remains. Although nearly $1 billion in a single day is impressive, as of September 21, the cumulative net outflow for US spot BTC ETFs in 2026 is still about $450 million. Single-day data is insufficient to confirm a trend reversal.
My approach: no leverage, no chasing breakouts; watch the $81,722 cost line closely, hold if it holds.September Summary:
22 days in September, with 17 days of profit-taking and 5 days of stop-loss so far.
Last night, the US stock market was lively again, but the excitement was theirs, and the divergence is real.
The Nasdaq hit a new all-time high, up 0.45%, the Dow fell 0.36%, and the S&P was basically flat. Among the seven major tech stocks, three rose and four fell. Apple's market cap briefly surpassed $5 trillion intraday but couldn't hold by close. Storage chips showed strength, with SanDisk up 6.81% and Micron up 5.00%.
On the crypto side, BTC is around 86443, up slightly 0.64% in 24 hours; ETH is at 2760, up 0.21%. Gold futures at 4395, Brent crude oil retreated to 99.12.
SanDisk received a buy rating from Rosenblatt with a target price of $2400, a strong boost for the storage sector. Apple's intraday surge to $5 trillion shows investors still have confidence in tech giants, but the close below that level indicates significant profit-taking pressure.
UBS's view is worth noting: the AI theme still has support from application growth, commercialization, and capital expenditure, but the market now demands actual revenue, profit, and cash flow realization; storytelling alone is no longer enough. In the short term, watch tonight's PMI and tomorrow's summit between Trump and Xi Jinping, as these two events will impact interest rates, tech stocks, and risk appetite.
Do you think Apple can hold above $5 trillion? #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 $BTC $ETH $ZEC #闪迪纳入标普100，焦点转向AI需求 Unrealized profits are just numbers; only when funds arrive is it a real gain.
Withdrawing funds is often more challenging than opening a position.
I once saw a seasoned trader who wasn’t defeated by the market but got caught offline: he transferred U, and the next day his card was frozen, losing all his money.
Since then, I only believe in one thing: making profits is a skill, but safely securing them is a win.
A few withdrawal rules:
1. Use official channels
Prioritize major exchanges' C2C; fees may not be the lowest, but there’s platform protection and appeal channels.
Private trades risk losing contact if something goes wrong.
2. Choose merchants by data
Check transaction count, registration time, and positive feedback rate; if any are poor, switch.
Avoid new accounts and abnormally high prices.
3. Withdraw large amounts in batches
Don’t withdraw 100,000 U at once; splitting into several transactions is safer and helps explain fund sources.
Inconvenience is a cost; frozen cards are the price.
4. Keep records throughout
Screenshot and save every order in and out.
When the bank asks, provide evidence directly to save time explaining.
A friend who kept records in advance had the bank verify and release funds immediately.
It’s not luck; it’s proactive risk control.
Remember:
Use official channels, withdraw in batches, keep proof. Withdraw when appropriate, don’t rush, don’t gamble privately. #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 First, look at $1INCH, current price 0.10383, slightly up 1.61%. DeFi has actually been quite stable this round, slowly climbing from the 0.06 bottom without any particularly exaggerated violent spikes. RSI is 69.57, not yet extremely overbought, EMA7 (0.099) provides good bottom support. This pattern suits patient holding, but the current price is a bit far from the moving average, so those who haven't entered yet are not advised to chase directly; it's safer to wait for a pullback near 0.10 to stabilize before buying in batches.
Next, $0G, current price 0.2436, up 3.35%. It's in the AI sector, with news pushing an "AI computing power financial layer Compute Finance." The trend is a typical deep drop followed by a rebound, slowly grinding up from 0.13. There is a lot of trapped volume in the 0.35-0.40 range above, and now at 0.24 it's stuck awkwardly in the middle. Those holding should hold along EMA7 (0.226), sell if it breaks down; those without positions should wait and watch, waiting for a breakout above the previous high or a confirmed pullback.
Finally, a key reminder about $ONE, current price 0.0048, plummeted 14.51%. According to news, since the beginning of the month when the mainnet shutdown was announced, it has been continuously crashing. Previously it surged from 0.0005 to 0.006 in a speculative run, but now it has completely returned to its original state. Daily RSI is 80.91, extremely distorted. For coins with fundamental problems like this, never think that a big drop is a "bottom-fishing opportunity." Catching this kind of move is like catching a flying knife; the whales are unloading without limits. Absolutely do not touch it Here's some data for everyone: $BTC current price is 86478, 24-hour high is 86800, low is 85070, with a volatility exceeding 2000 points. But do you know that most of the trading volume within these 2000 points is concentrated in the 600-point range between 86100 and 86700?
What does this mean? It means most people are trading back and forth within this range, chasing highs and cutting losses, paying a lot in fees, but barely making any money. The real winners are those who trade at the edges of the range—shorting near 86800, going long near 86078, and then waiting.
When I used to lose 200,000U, I was one of the majority, busy trading in the middle of the range, effectively working for the exchange. Now I've learned my lesson: I open positions with 5000U only at the edges, set stop losses properly, don't hold losing positions, and firmly avoid the middle range.
Data doesn't lie; what lies is your emotion. $BTC #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 This wave of ZEC, the idea from the day before yesterday still stands.
Around 1450, I gave an early signal to go long,
this morning the highest already reached 1652.
Now around 1616.
In two days, from 1450 to 1650.
This is what I have always said:
Hindsight is meaningless.
What really matters is whether you publicly disclosed your position before the market rose.
I mentioned 1450,
I also waited early around 1410–1430.
If the market doesn't reach 1410, then lightly enter at 1450.
Looking back now, isn't position more important than opinion?
I don't need to make up a story after the market moves.
What I thought at the time, what I did at the time, I lay it out directly.
The rest, let the candlesticks speak for themselves.$BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ #ZEC巨鲸3.8万枚空单平仓，亏损超3500万美元 The three major cryptocurrencies have recovered from a slow decline, shifting towards short covering and ETF inflow resonance. The main risk now is not an immediate pullback, but mistaking the short squeeze for a new trend and continuing to chase longs at 86,000, 2,760, and 119.
Today's focus is on the US PMI and the follow-up developments of the Trump-Xi meeting window.
$BTC has reclaimed the long-term moving average, marking the most substantial structural strengthening in nearly 300 days.
Support: 85,200, 84,000, 83,000
Resistance: 86,800, 87,400, 88,000–90,000
View: The 83,000–86,000 range was previously a dense short zone, now turned into short-term support. Medium-term bias is bullish, but better to wait for a pullback rather than chase highs.
$ETH On-chain chips and institutional buying are still consolidating.
Support: 2,700, 2,640–2,560
Resistance: 2,800, 2,890, 3,000
View: 2,700 is a key watershed. Holding above it allows repeated tests of 2,800–3,000; breaking below calls for attention to support near 2,640.
$SOL ETF funds are entering, but contract positions are relatively crowded.
Support: 114, 110–107
Resistance: 120, 123–125
View: Maintaining a strong structure above 114; breaking below risks deeper pullbacks. Leverage heating up faster than spot demand is the main hidden risk.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 Iran's Bitcoin settlement dream was shattered by a sanction decree 🧊
The U.S. Treasury has added Iran's BitBank to the sanctions list. The reason is straightforward: assisting the Revolutionary Guard in transferring hundreds of millions of dollars in Bitcoin.
Last week, Iran just started using BTC for foreign trade settlements, and many were shouting "global adoption has arrived." I said then, don't rush; the real issue is whether USDT will be frozen. Now the answer is out—not freezing, but directly sanctioning the channels.
Bessent's remark is worth pondering: "Bitcoin payment channels are not exempt from oversight by the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control." To translate: if you use BTC to circumvent, I will sanction those who help you circumvent.
Iran is being forced. The dollar channels are blocked, making it increasingly difficult to receive money and buy goods, so they have to bring BTC to the foreign trade table. But BTC is not an invisibility cloak; its ledger is public. The U.S. can precisely target BitBank, indicating that on-chain tracking has matured enough to follow the trail. This is not settlement freedom; it's a higher-dimensional cat-and-mouse game.
Next, Iran will either switch platforms, go underground, or return to the negotiation table. Meanwhile, Trump is sanctioning exchanges on one hand and negotiating ceasefire terms in the Gulf on the other, playing both hard and soft tactics.
BTC is now at 86,265, and the price hasn't reacted to this. But the real question is not whether it falls today, but whether using BTC for cross-border settlements in the future will be more convenient or more dangerous?
When transparency becomes a weapon, privacy becomes a necessity. ZEC, NEAR, and others might be the next chapter.
$BTC $ETH #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ $FLOCK unlocks in one week, $5.65 million is not a dump warning
At midnight on September 30, a batch of $FLOCK tokens will unlock.
The amount is 168.04 million tokens, which is about $5.65 million at the current price.
How this number is calculated:
5.65 million divided by 168.04 million, back-calculating the unit price to about $0.0336.
Unlocking does not mean selling; it just means these tokens change from locked to liquid.
At the moment of unlocking:
Liquid means holders can place orders at any time.
Whether they place orders or how many, we will only see on that day.
What truly increases after one week is the amount available to sell, not the amount sold.
If the price doesn’t move on the unlock day, it means no one is in a hurry to leave.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #欧洲央行上线代币化结算平台 $FLOCK Yesterday, the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a single-day net inflow of approximately $999 million
- Historical ranking: 9th largest single-day inflow since listing in January 2024
- Last time ≥ $1 billion: October 6, 2025
- BTC price reaction: surged intraday to approximately $87,300 (highest since January this year)
- Consecutive inflows: 9/17 ($160 million) + 9/18 ($433 million) + 9/22 ($999 million)
- September cumulative: approximately $1.31 billion (August full month $3.54 billion)
2. Capital structure
- IBIT (BlackRock): $381 million, absolute leader
- ARKB (ARK + 21Shares): $289 million
- FBTC (Fidelity): $239 million
- MSBT (Morgan Stanley): $61.7 million
- BITB (Bitwise): $21.6 million
- On the day: zero net outflow, sentiment slightly strong
My personal understanding of the above data is:
1. Institutional capital returning: IBIT + FBTC + ARKB together took the vast majority of the flow, indicating it’s not retail chasing the rally but allocation-type funds increasing positions.
2. Macro window alignment: Usually, ETF inflows of this scale are driven by "rate cut expectations / risk asset repricing / US dollar weakening." Here's a counterintuitive thought: At the $BTC position of 86478, those without positions are more anxious than those holding.
Why? Because holders are already on the train; they’re happy when prices rise and add more when prices fall, so their mindset is steadier. Those without positions are different—they see the price rise from 86078 to 86478 and feel that itch, afraid of missing out, afraid of being left behind, and then impulsively chase the high, only to see a pullback afterward.
I used to be this kind of anxious non-holder; half of my 200,000 U losses came from this. Now I’ve learned my lesson: I open a position with 5,000 U and don’t chase unless it reaches the right level. I short near 86800 resistance, go long near 86078 support, and stay out of the market in between, scratching the itch by going to drink water.
Remember, the market never lacks opportunities; it lacks patience. You won’t lose money by staying out, but if you impulsively chase highs, you’ll get taught a lesson in no time. $BTC #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 #BTC started replicating the movement from 85k to 126k down to 60k. This judgment is very bold, but the problem is: the background of the last drop is not the same as now.
The leverage structure, macro environment, and capital flow at that time all differ from the current situation.
Directly applying the pattern of one crash to another position easily overlooks intermediate variables.
It's fine to be bearish, but the absolute statement "can't see the possibility of a bull market" itself excludes another possible path.
You can wait, but don't just wait for one direction. Brothers, altcoins are all about the thrill, and it really is a thrill—my heart is scared almost to the point of stopping. Yesterday, I went short and got blown up after just a few hours, luckily I had set a stop loss. Damn it, I won’t short today either; I’ll go long and see if I can lose more money.
$MUBARAK current price 0.061908, 24-hour increase 36.52%, order book B 59% vs S 41%, buy orders are dominant again. I entered at 0.06206 and got stuck; now the mark price is 0.061885, a small loss I’ll hold for now.
Why does it keep rising?
First, Bitcoin returned to $85,000, causing capital rotation in the Meme sector. The strong rally in BTC has driven the entire altcoin market, with funds flowing out of top assets into the Meme sector. MUBARAK, as a veteran Meme in the BSC ecosystem, has benefited from this sector’s dividend.
Second, the main force is accelerating buying at 19x leverage, the short squeeze continues. Capital inflow ratio is 92%, acceleration 19.51x, the main players are buying frantically. The initial short squeeze is done; now it’s pumping and shaking, using the short squeeze to lure retail investors to chase highs and take the bag.
Third, chips are highly concentrated, making the cost of pumping extremely low. The top two holders control over 65% of supply combined, cold wallets account for 66.70%. The actual tradable circulating supply is limited, so marginal buy orders can push the price up.
What’s next? Since I can’t short, I won’t. I’m going long with a stop loss below 0.058, target first at 0.068, if broken then 0.075. This kind of speculative coin is known for wild ups and downs; if chasing longs, set take profit properly and don’t be greedy.
Brothers, how many more days do you think MUBARAK can bounce? Let’s chat in the comments!
$BTC
$ETH
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 The largest short is being roasted on the fire: losing 11.5 million, waking up every day to lose 160,000 first
Look at this chart, a short is being repeatedly crushed by the market.
$CXMT Largest short position:
- Direction: Short
- Quantity: 2,900,600 tokens
- Opening price: $6.5
- Current value: $25.26 million
- Unrealized loss: $6.39 million
- Funding fees paid: $5.21 million
- Liquidation price: $14.60
This short opened at $6.505, already has an unrealized loss of 6.39 million, and has to pay 5.21 million in funding fees. Altogether, the loss exceeds 11.5 million.
The harshest part is the funding fees
CXMT funding rate has turned negative again, shorts have to pay longs. This address pays about $6,825 per hour, approximately $164,000 per day.
Doing nothing, waking up every day to lose $160,000 first. #欧洲央行上线代币化结算平台
The euro is now settled on-chain
On September 21, the European Central Bank launched Pontes, a tokenized asset trading platform integrated into the euro system's settlement infrastructure
Institutions can settle using central bank money without relying on stablecoins
The first batch includes 13 banks, with 4 DLT operators also connected
The US SEC just granted a five-year exemption for tokenized stocks on September 17, coinciding in timing
But this is more like a pilot; full capabilities are expected by 2028
The real passive impact is on private stablecoins, as the official minting tax on institutional settlement will be reclaimed
So my judgment is, don’t see this as incremental good news for BTC; watch the second batch of participants and actual settlement scale
$BTC $ETH #欧洲央行上线代币化结算平台 #RWAEthereum is at 2780, is 2800 a breakout or a fakeout?
Ethereum has been fluctuating around $2770 today, with a trading volume of $21.9 billion, and a cumulative gain of 74.6% in Q3.
But one detail is worth noting: short positions on Ethereum on Binance account for nearly 50%, with many short positions accumulated around $2800. Meanwhile, the total open interest for Ethereum contracts across the network has risen to $16 billion.
What does this mean? In the 2780 to 2800 range, both bulls and bears are increasing their stakes. If the price breaks above 2800 with volume, shorts will be forced to cover, potentially driving a rapid upward move; but if it pushes up and then gets pushed back, this is a classic bull trap.
My approach: don’t guess the direction, wait for the price to decide. If it breaks above 2800 with volume support, follow the trend; if it spikes up then falls back with a long upper wick, that could be an opportunity to short.
The reason key levels are key is not because the line itself has magic, but because enough people are betting there. The greater the disagreement at a level, the greater the volatility.ETH just checked the 4-hour chart, current price around $2,753
✨✨✨✨✨
📈【Resistance Above】
📍 First resistance $2,770 - $2,805 (This is the highest zone in the past 7 days, it was pushed down after hitting 2804)
📍 Second resistance near $2,850, requires volume support to hold
📉【Support Below】
📍 First support $2,715 - $2,730 (recently repeatedly held this level)
📍 Second support $2,645 - $2,660 (breaking below here indicates weakness)
📍 Iron bottom $2,568, if broken, structural reassessment is needed【Market Quick Notes】Market Confusion? 3 Points to Understand the Current Underlying Logic of the Crypto Space
Brothers, have you recently felt the market is full of spikes and extremely torturous? Here's a simple summary of a few core thoughts:
1. Farewell to broad rallies, liquidity is extremely competitive
On-exchange funds are insufficient to drive a full rally; big money is basically locked in core assets like BTC. Altcoins only have localized rotations, liquidity in old coins is dried up, so don’t expect “altcoins to rally broadly after BTC rises.”
2. Narrative shifts to “real cash flow”
Funds now prefer sectors with practical use cases and compliant closed loops (such as stablecoin payments, RWA). Governance tokens that rely purely on hype have no bottom once unlocking pressure hits.
3. Contract two-way shakeout, leverage is basically free money
The liquidation heatmap harvests on both sides daily. In a choppy market, volatility seems small but spikes are frequent; leverage over 10x can easily get wiped out overnight.
Current practical trading advice:
Core spot holdings lie low, never stubbornly hold altcoins
Don’t chase breakouts at resistance; only act at box edges or key support signals
Keep at least 30% U in hand; bull markets are never achieved overnight
How much of your position do you currently hold? Are you watching for a breakout or expecting more shakeouts? Let’s discuss in the comments!Whale Long Positions: Substantial Unrealized Gains, But Represent Early Stage Positioning
Well-known whales hold long positions with considerable profits, but their entry costs are far below the current price, indicating early accumulation rather than recent chasing of the rally:
· “Set 10 big goals first”: Holding about 2,206 BTC long positions, with unrealized gains exceeding $12.26 million (approximately 26% return), average entry price around $79,471.
· Garrett Jin: Opened about 1,330 BTC long positions near $78,057 (worth approximately $107 million), representing the most concentrated bullish bet in the current market.
· Brother Machi: Holds 495 BTC long positions (liquidation price $73,501), but ETH accounts for a larger share of his holdings.
Funding Rates and Sentiment: Bulls "Pay to Hold," But Not Overheated
Glassnode points out that this rally is driven mainly by spot and perpetual buy orders; funding rates remain below neutral levels, and the put/call ratio for options is rising but far from overheated. However, data shows Hyperliquid's BTC annualized funding rate once reached +20%, indicating high holding costs for longs; if prices stagnate, this leverage segment will face pressure first.
In brief: Long positions have not been massively added at recent highs; existing large long positions are generally deeply profitable. The bearish bias in the long-short ratio is due to shorts dominating in volume, while the price rebound is forcing shorts to cover, creating passive buying pressure. #BTC surges to $87000, total crypto market cap returns to 3 trillion
BTC has rallied from 78k to 87k recently, feeling like it rose too fast, with almost all short liquidations above cleared out. Now it has been consolidating around 86k for a day, liquidation data is straightforward: if it goes up 10k, short liquidations are about 440 million; if it drops 10k, long liquidations are about 1.663 billion. If you were the market maker, which side would you take?
My guess is the script: first surge up to around 87.5k, knocking out the shorts' stop losses above the previous high, also baiting longs; then reverse and crash down below 79k, triggering the biggest long liquidation zone below, taking the biggest bite.
So, now is not suitable for high leverage chasing longs. Conservative traders can wait for a pullback before acting.
$ETH $DOGE $BTC