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AAVE bullish news lands but reverses back to 144.14, I'm bullish
$AAVE added as collateral on Coin, yet the price retraced: current price 149.23, pressured down from 156.19 to 144.14 — bullish news moving opposite, I'm bullish.
Coinbase's stock assets have truly entered the Aave collateral pool, Base chain launched, after the event price moved from 145.7 to 149.13, +2.35% — real money voted.
Daily RSI 66.2 is relatively strong, MA7 above MA30 for the 8th day; 7d +2.21%, 30d +17.66%, 30-day percentile 0.813, no high-level exhaustion.
Open Interest 408,168.30, down 3.6% from record, long-short account ratio 1.7747; market risk_off, only 17 of 76 coins rose — retracement is broad-based.
Resistance above: 150, then 155.48
Support below: 133.5 (daily MA30)
Watershed level: 144.01, intraday low is right here, breaking this escalates retracement
My judgment: bullish. Enter at current price 149.23, stop loss 133.5, if not broken target 150 for profit-taking. Like and follow, I'll alert you first when ready.
$AAVE $BTC$BTC is currently experiencing a situation of "strong capital inflow but also strong macro pressure." Both bulls and bears are engaged in an intense tug-of-war.
📊 【Data Breakdown: Clear Capital Inflow】
▶ Last week, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $2.4 billion, one of the largest weekly inflows in nearly a year.
▶ On September 21, the single-day inflow was about $999 million, the largest single-day inflow this year.
▶ There have been capital inflows for 7 consecutive trading days, totaling about $3 billion.
👉 Simply put: institutional funds are re-entering BTC. But ETF inflows ≠ BTC will immediately rise; it only indicates a clear improvement on the demand side.
💡 【Industry Deep Dive: Why is the price not rising smoothly?】
BTC has fallen from above $86K to around $84K, while the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to about 5.17%, and market expectations for further rate hikes in October have clearly intensified.
🟢 ETF funds → provide support for BTC price increases
🔴 But high US Treasury yields + tighter rate hike expectations → put pressure on BTC prices
So now there is a pull: buying is increasing, but macro levels are also rising sharply.
(Source: OKX Planet 09/29)
$ETH #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 The IPO prospectus of AI companies is a rare truth-revealing mirror for traders.
Anthropic's IPO materials are out: fiscal year 2025 revenue is $4.59 billion, more than a tenfold increase year-over-year, a very impressive figure. But flipping to the back — after deducting one-time impacts, the operating level still lost over $8 billion; in the next year alone, they plan to invest 518 billion in cloud computing and computing power; nearly a quarter of the revenue comes from two clients, and most major clients have not signed long-term contracts and can cut off anytime.
Retail investors only focus on the top-line growth in financial reports, while professional players first check the risk factors. No matter how fierce the growth is, one must ask: which runs faster, the burn rate or the certainty of revenue?
AI is a real trend, but a trend does not mean you can blindly buy at any price. The recent collective pullback in chip and AI stocks shows the market is starting to seriously calculate this account.PONS has recently experienced a sharp pullback, with the core trigger being the Pons V2 vulnerability incident exposed on-chain.
Some analysts found that 10 projects on the platform used whitelists to bypass the anti-sniping tax, and internal wallets pre-accumulated the vast majority of tokens, involving a total of 18.4 million USD. The news directly crushed PONS sentiment.
Previously, it surged ten-thousand-fold from the bottom, accumulating a large amount of profit-taking positions. Once the narrative breaks down, selling pressure is released all at once.
Question: Do you think this is a short-term emotional sell-off, or has the Robinhood chain's Meme narrative peaked?
#Pons #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #闪迪获Rosenblatt买入评级，目标价2400美元# This news brings SNDK back into focus, but the target price of 2400 is far from the current price, so the short-term sentiment boost is limited. I tend to view it as a consolidation recovery rather than the start of a reversal.
The 4-hour level still shows an upward structure, with a 12.63% distance from the low point indicating that the medium-term bulls are intact; however, the 1-hour chart has turned bearish, down 4.53% from the high, and the current price of 1716.4 has fallen below the 24h high of 1777.3, down 3.3% in 24h. The order book's top 10 bid-ask ratio is 0.90, with selling pressure slightly dominant, and the turnover of 431,000 is relatively light. The funding rate of 0.0235% remains positive, with open interest at 46,000, indicating that bulls have not collapsed but there is no new inflow.
Under macro linkage, the overall crypto market is under pressure, and SNDK is unlikely to strengthen independently. Strategically, lightly short near 1745 on the rebound, stop loss at 1763, target 1668; if it pulls back and stabilizes near 1662, consider a short-term long, stop loss at 1649, target 1712. Keep position control within 20%, exit immediately if broken.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading.——
$SNDK#闪迪获Rosenblatt买入评级，目标价2400美元
#闪迪获Rosenblatt买入评级，目标价2400美元 $SNDK Franklin Templeton has directly made tokenized money market funds collateral on Bybit.
Institutional clients can now use fund shares to borrow USDT/USDC without selling assets or moving positions.
The asset management giant with $1.83 trillion AUM is personally involved; the focus is not on this single product, but on "RWA as collateral" turning from a concept into a usable tool:
The liquidity of traditional assets has been brought into the crypto lending market.sndk Strategy Analysis (Morning 9.29)
Combining technical chart patterns with the latest fundamental events, the current price level (1,718.5) offers a slightly favorable risk-reward ratio for short positions, but short-term faces oversold rebound pressure, so chasing shorts requires caution. The core market conflict lies between the long-term demand logic for AI storage (institutional target price $2,400) and the interplay of the Federal Reserve's rate hikes, executive share sell-offs, and the overall pullback in the storage sector, with short-term bearish forces clearly dominant.
I. Comprehensive Technical Analysis
Daily Level: Price has continuously fallen from the high of 1,908, breaking below the Bollinger Band middle line (1,699.7) and then slightly rebounding. KDJ's J value is 6.7, RSI6 is 43.95, STOCHRSI is 41.8, momentum continues to weaken, and the overall bearish structure remains unchanged. The upper Bollinger Band (1,899.8) forms a strong medium-term resistance.
4-Hour Level: KDJ three lines (K:37.4, D:36.7, J:38.8) flatten at low levels, RSI6 is 34.51, STOCHRSI is 22.6, indicating initial oversold signals and short-term technical rebound demand, but resistance at 1,757.8 (Bollinger middle line) is obvious.
1-Hour Level: KDJ's J value is 95.2, RSI6 is 54.59, STOCHRSI is as high as 97.5, showing an extremely overbought state after short-term oversold recovery, with signs of rebound momentum exhaustion. Resistance at 1,740.6 (Bollinger upper band) forms short-term resistance.
15-Minute Level: KDJ's J value reaches 98.4, RSI6 is 69.12, STOCHRSI is 93.8, also in an extremely overbought zone, with significant short-term pullback pressure.
Core Conflict: The extreme overbought signals on 15-minute and 1-hour charts point to a short-term pullback, but the 4-hour oversold suggests limited downside space. The market is in a secondary pressure phase after an oversold rebound.
Key Levels:
· Resistance above: 1,740 (1-hour Bollinger upper band), 1,758 (4-hour Bollinger middle line), 1,778 (24-hour high)
· Support below: 1,693 (1-hour Bollinger lower band), 1,661 (24-hour low), 1,600 (previous high-volume area)
II. Fundamentals and Macro Environment
Intensive Negative Factors:
· US Storage Sector Plummets: On September 28 Eastern Time, most storage stocks declined; SK Hynix fell over 5%, SanDisk over 3%, Micron Technology over 2%, Western Digital 0.78%. SanDisk closed down 3.65% at $1,712.89, continuing to fall to $1,711.50 after hours.
· Fed Hawkish Tightening: On September 16, the Fed unanimously raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%. The dot plot median shows one more 25 basis point hike this year, with terminal rates at 4.1% for 2026 and 2027. The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed above 5.2%, and the 30-year broke 5.5%, both near multi-year highs, continuously pressuring risk assets.
· CEO Consecutive Sell-offs: Chairman and CEO David Goeckeler sold 33,841 shares in 15 transactions on September 17, cashing out about $53.27 million, following a 10b5-1 plan established in May.
· Pre-earnings Risk Aversion for Micron: Micron Technology will report Q4 earnings on September 30. Ahead of this key event in the storage sector, the market tends to reduce risk exposure, with investors locking in profits from prior gains.
Potential Positive Factors:
· Strong Institutional Bullishness: Rosenblatt Securities initiated coverage on SanDisk on September 21 with a "Buy" rating and a $2,400 target price, believing AI computing platforms are repositioning NAND from commoditized storage media to a key component of AI infrastructure.
· NAND Contract Prices Continue Rising: TrendForce expects Q4 2026 enterprise SSD contract prices to surge 23-28% QoQ, overall NAND Flash up 15-20% QoQ, with CSP demand continuously supporting prices. Apple has accepted Samsung's storage quotes for Q1 next year, with NAND flash near $0.33/Gb, up 30%-40% from Q3 this year.
III. Trading Strategy Recommendations
Short Strategy (Recommended, profit probability about 55%-60%)
· Entry Range: 1,730-1,750 (wait for a rebound near the 1-hour Bollinger upper band for light entry; if it rallies to 1,760-1,780, add positions)
· Stop Loss: 1,800 (above 24-hour high; if broken effectively, bearish structure is invalidated)
· Take Profit Targets:
· First target: 1,660 (near 24-hour low, reduce 50% position)
· Second target: 1,600 (previous high-volume area, close remaining positions)
Core Logic: The Fed rate hike cycle restart combined with soaring US Treasury yields continuously suppress tech stocks. The storage sector faces rising risk aversion ahead of Micron's earnings, and the CEO's consecutive sell-offs send a warning signal. The 15-minute and 1-hour extreme overbought technicals point to a short-term pullback.
Long Strategy (Only for ultra-short-term trading, higher risk)
If a clear stop and stabilization signal appears in the 1,690-1,700 range, light long positions can be tried:
· Entry: 1,692-1,700
· Stop Loss: 1,680 (exit if below 1-hour Bollinger lower band)
· Take Profit: 1,740-1,755 (from 1-hour Bollinger upper band to near 4-hour Bollinger middle line, quick in and out)
Risk Warning: Long positions are only for counter-trend short-term plays after oversold conditions and should not be heavily held. Market volatility may increase before Micron's earnings release; controlling position size before the event is advised.
Summary: The long-term demand logic for AI storage (institutional target $2,400, rising NAND contract prices) provides fundamental support, but short-term negative factors dominate — Fed hawkish tightening, soaring US Treasury yields, CEO sell-offs exceeding $53 million, overall storage sector pullback, and pre-earnings risk aversion for Micron. The 15-minute and 1-hour extreme overbought technicals indicate a short-term pullback. Shorting is a higher-probability short-term trend trade but requires caution as 4-hour charts show oversold signals; waiting for a rebound to resistance levels before scaling in with strict stops is recommended. Long trades are only for ultra-short-term plays and require clear stabilization signals.#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
$HYPE finally started to drop
It seems like nearly 10 million tokens were unlocked again yesterday
With these large unlocks happening several times
Tens of billions of dollars worth of HYPE are flooding the market
If the project team sells off, can the market handle it?
$ZEC Yesterday, the green guy said he got it below 1000
I also want to get it below 1000
But when I woke up this morning, I saw he had already sold more than half
Wasn't it agreed to hold long-term?$BTC ｜ Saylor calls on banks to custody BTC, don’t expect a short-term pump 🚀
Michael Saylor’s latest proposal pushes for banks to enter Bitcoin custody, integrating BTC into an insured traditional banking custody system.
Simply put: in the future, Bitcoin can be directly deposited in banks, allowing holders to pledge and borrow against their coins without being forced to sell for cash.
From a long-term perspective, this is indeed a highly promising positive development. Once realized, it will alleviate the entry concerns of many conservative traditional institutional funds, with risks like lost private keys and asset theft covered by bank insurance, opening a gateway for crypto assets into traditional finance.
But here’s the key point ⚠️ this is currently just a verbal proposal, still very far from implementation. Regulatory battles, compliance legislation, and banking infrastructure all need to be advanced step by step, a lengthy process that won’t be realized just by a statement.
This positive news is a long-term narrative, not a short-term catalyst for price spikes. Don’t get carried away and chase high positions just because of the news. The short-term market will still be driven by macroeconomic data.
This week’s non-farm payrolls and PCE inflation data are the real short-term market drivers; combined with BTC spot ETF weekly inflows hitting a near one-year high and overseas stablecoin plans emerging, the market is mixed with bullish and bearish news, leading to increasing volatility. News should only be considered as seasoning, not a basis for opening positions. Short-term trading should prioritize market conditions and data, and not be misled by narratives. $ETH $SOL ARK tokenizes a $1.3 billion venture capital fund, with KAITO directly benefiting as its ecological information layer target, but the positive news hasn't changed the short-term weakness. Although the 4-hour chart shows an increase, the 1-hour chart has turned downward, with a weak rebound. Current price is 0.3335, down 7.7% in 24h, high 0.3638 low 0.3255, volume 26.77 million. It is only 1.55% above the 1-hour low, approaching support at 0.3253 and resistance at 0.3467. The buy-sell ratio for the top 10 levels is 0.97, with slightly stronger selling pressure. Funding rate is 0.0042%, longs still pay a premium, open interest is 11.284 million, sentiment not yet cleared. You may lightly go long at 0.3253 with a stop loss at 0.3186 and a target of 0.3461; or short on a rebound at 0.3449 with a stop loss at 0.3523 and a target of 0.3269. Position size should not exceed 5%, exit immediately if broken.
— For personal opinion only, not investment advice, wishing you smooth trading. —
$KAITO #Ondo launches tokenized investment portfolio based on BlackRock strategy
#ARK将13亿美元风投基金代币化 $KAITO Many people ask me why I dare to hold short positions overnight. Let me show you the structure; it's not about courage.
First, the 10-year US Treasury yield once surged to 5.27%, a 19-year high, and the 30-year broke 5.5%—with interest rates this high, valuations of all risk assets are being pushed down, and $BTC is no exception. On the macro front, the current stance favors the bears.
Second, the current perpetual funding rate is still mildly positive. A positive funding rate means longs are paying shorts—so by holding a short position, I actually receive some interest in my account every few hours. The direction is favorable, and I earn rent while holding; that's why I can sleep well.
I'm not telling you to follow my trades, but to make you understand one thing: holding positions overnight relies on structure and logic, not on heartbeat and gambling.ARK tokenizes a $1.3 billion venture capital fund, the RWA narrative heating up is a potential positive for the SOL ecosystem, but short-term sentiment has yet to catch up. I judge the news to be moderately positive, the market weak, and divergence is increasing. Although the 1-hour and 4-hour trends are upward, the price has fallen from 122.87 to 118.72, down 2.7%, with short-term momentum clearly conflicting with the mid-term structure. The 24h low of 117.11 is the current key support, with resistance at 122.87. The order book buy/sell ratio of 0.77 shows sellers dominate, funding rate is only 0.0020%, open interest is 2.963 million, and bullish sentiment is cautious. Strategically, lightly buy on a dip to 117.35, stop loss at 115.85, target 121.65; if a rebound to 122.35 is resisted, short for a quick trade, stop loss at 123.85, target 118.45. Single position size should not exceed 20%, exit immediately if broken, do not hold the position.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$SOL#ARK将13亿美元风投基金代币化
#ARK将13亿美元风投基金代币化 $SOL In spot trading volume, altcoins have nearly reached 4 times that of Bitcoin, the highest since September 2025.
This number has two sides:
On one hand, it shows that funds are indeed rotating into high-risk assets, and sentiment has returned;
On the other hand, historically, such a "surge in altcoin trading share" often appears near BTC's cyclical peaks.
Before chasing altcoins, think carefully whether you're riding the rotation or catching the last baton.🤔Goldman Sachs estimates AI-related capital expenditures to be about $1.2 trillion by 2027, fueling the risk asset narrative again, but SLX has not kept up. I judge it to be caught between macro tailwinds and its own selling pressure, showing short-term weakness. Currently at 0.0654, down 8.6% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of 4.879 million, funding rate only 0.005%, and open interest at 27.846 million, neither bulls nor bears are willing to increase positions. The one-hour downtrend is clear, with a slight buying advantage at 1.04 supporting above the 0.06421 low, while the four-hour uptrend structure remains intact. 0.06401 is the short-term critical line; if broken, look to 0.06287. It is recommended to lightly go long at 0.06485 with a stop loss at 0.06372 and a target of 0.06893; if volume breaks below 0.06401, reverse to short with a stop loss at 0.06518 and a target of 0.06176. Position size should not exceed 5%, only short-term trades before macro tailwinds materialize.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading.——
$SLX#高盛预估2027年AI相关资本开支约1.2万亿美元
#高盛预估2027年AI相关资本开支约1.2万亿美元 $SLX Dow Jones 51482, down 347 points, down 0.7%. S&P 7684, down 60 points, down 0.8%, 1.5% below the August high, also the lowest close since September 18. Nasdaq 26820, down 248 points, down 0.9%. Russell 2000 down 0.7%. Year-to-date, S&P up about 12%, Nasdaq about 15%, Dow about 7%. VIX bounced to 16. Pricing order is very firm. Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, oil prices reversed. WTI closed at 93.37, up about 1%, Brent reclaimed 100 and briefly surged higher. The 10-year US Treasury yield hit 5.23%, the highest since 2007. The probability of another 25 basis point hike in October returned to around 70%. Gold dropped over 4%, with the dollar and yields draining its safe-haven function. Communications and discretionary consumption were the worst, essentials still holding up. This is not a stock-specific incident; interest rates have pushed risk appetite back down. Nvidia couldn't hold the index. The company added another $150 billion in buybacks, raising the quota to $235 billion, launched another set of security software, stock price up about 1.7%. The other "Big Seven" all closed down, Meta down nearly 5%. Storage and semiconductors were softer, Philadelphia Semiconductor down about 2%. AI can still buy one company, but can't buy back the 5.2% 10-year yield. Boeing down nearly 7%, FAA must first investigate the software fault of the 737 Max 10 before certification.Between empty promises and running away, the market is dancing
Just as the good news surfaces, whales pour cold water. The Fed talks dovish but then dumps 5,000 BTC — this market is like a flaky lover in the ambiguous phase, saying "baby, I'm here" while already riding someone else's car. $BTC hovers around 84,000; a rebound? Don't rush to call it a reversal, chasing highs easily turns into a donation event.
On the $ETH side, the Cancun upgrade debuted and immediately bowed out, layer2 fees dropped, but the coin price stayed flat. No matter how lively the ecosystem is, without capital inflow it's just self-entertainment. The story sounds good, wallets are honest, even following the rise is tough, don't fall in love with it.
$SOL's meme season is still smoking, some altcoins multiply a hundredfold in a day, but big wallets quietly slim down. The casino is open; winning is a process, but running fast is the real skill.
In short: bulls and bears slap each other, the chart slaps your face. If you're itchy-handed, go small; don't gamble your living expenses on tomorrow. Heavy positions? That's not investing, that's charity donation.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 THE RISE AND FALL OF TELEGRAM GAMING
The summer of 2024 was the golden era of Telegram tap-to-earn games.
Notcoin kicked things off, followed by Hamster Kombat, Catizen, Major, MemeFi and dozens of others.
Millions jumped in, tapping and completing tasks, hoping their points would become valuable crypto.
But once the tokens launched, reality hit. Heavy selling, disappointing airdrops, falling prices and fading interest quickly killed the hype.
By 2025, the Telegram gaming craze had faded. #Strategy提议为优先股发放每日股息# This ongoing dividend narrative will divert risk appetite funds within the market, with high-volatility assets like WLD bearing the brunt of the pressure. I tend to remain defensive. Currently at 0.4912, down 10.1% in 24 hours, with a high of 0.5515 and a low of 0.4759, trading volume 391 million, funding rate 0.01% slightly neutral, open interest 69.449 million coins, order book buy/sell ratio 0.99 with sellers slightly dominant. Although short-term cycles are rising, they are still 15.06% below the high, indicating limited rebound strength. Operationally, I prefer to lightly short around 0.5148 with a stop loss at 0.5302 and a target of 0.4621; if it pulls back to 0.4763 and stabilizes, I may add a small long position with a stop loss at 0.4608 and a target of 0.5096. Single position size should not exceed 2% of total funds; exit immediately on a breakout, do not hold the position.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading.——
$WLD#Strategy提议为优先股发放每日股息
#Strategy提议为优先股发放每日股息 $WLD #Strategy提议为优先股发放每日股息, this approach of treating Bitcoin reserves as a cash flow engine shows that institutions are still trying to leverage to accumulate coins, and BTC's medium-term confidence remains intact. However, the short-term market is not convinced, and the weak consolidation pattern remains unchanged.
Down 1.2% in 24h, the price retreated to 82501 after surging to 84973.6 before stopping, currently at 83457.1 close to the 1-hour descending channel, only 0.98% above the low, while 4-hour is already -3.70% from the high, showing clear short-term pressure. The turnover of 8.289 million is slightly bearish, but the top 10 order book shows 787 buy orders against 497 sell orders, with a strength ratio of 1.58, indicating stronger buyer support; the funding rate is a mild 0.0055%, with 28,000 coin-margined positions, no extreme bets on either side, more like a buildup before a breakout.
Strategically, if the pullback to 82930 holds, one can lightly go long with a stop loss at 82380 and a target of 84220; if volume breaks below 82501, then reverse to short at 82360 with a stop loss at 83120 and a target of 81380. Position size should be controlled within 20%, exit immediately if broken, do not hold the position.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you smooth trading. —
$BTC#Strategy提议为优先股发放每日股息
#Strategy提议为优先股发放每日股息 $BTC $SUI unlocked 380,000 tokens and closed the positionFirst thing after waking up, I checked the futures drawer — $ETH spot is around 2690, the funding rate is slightly positive at +0.006%, and the open interest is still holding around 1.52 billion.
During the night, the low point hit around 2636 but was pulled back, the 24-hour high is still hanging near 2721, basically moving sideways all day with almost no change in price. The bulls are paying a little interest, not much money, and leverage hasn’t obviously increased.
For the short term, I’m watching whether it can firmly hold above 2700 again, and the two support levels at 2680 / 2670. Don’t stubbornly hold if it breaks below; $BTC is around 83560, if Bitcoin shakes, I’ll let go here first.
The above is just my personal observation, not investment advice, trade at your own risk.
$ETH $BTC #ETH #Ethereum #BTC #FuturesMarket #FundingRate #MorningSession #RiskWarning Brothers, I'm really panicking right now.
$ETH ETH is currently around 2690, and suddenly at 1 AM yesterday it surged, reaching as high as 2720.
The most ridiculous thing is, yesterday afternoon it had clearly dropped to 2633.8!
At that time, I was thinking: this time it should break 2600, right?
But no, not only did it not break, it directly V-shaped back up.
Now it's back to high-level sideways consolidation.
Brothers, I really don't dare to make a move now.
If I cut losses, what if it starts crashing right after?
If I don't cut, what if it hits a new high again this week?
Also, $BTC BTC is rebounding too, climbing from 82561 to 83424.
The macro news isn't exactly easy either: oil at 105, US bonds breaking 5%, and the rate hike probability even at 75%. But the market just doesn't make sense.
Spot ETFs had a net inflow of 2.4 billion last week, Strategy even bought 95 BTC, institutions are holding strong with money, so ETH just won't drop.
I originally thought I could make some profit at the 2633.8 dip, but now it's worse—the profit slipped away and my short position is almost eating me alive.
Will ETH hit a new high again this week?
I really don't want to keep holding this position.
Brothers, do you think my short position still has a chance? 😭
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 #Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC The first truth: The $360 billion “supply wall” is the real ceiling
First, understand the peculiarity of the 2700-2800 range.
13.3 million ETH were traded in this range. What does this mean?
A large number of holders are trapped in this range. They may have bought near the end of the 2025 bull market or chased the rebound in early 2026. Their cost basis is between 2722 and 2822. Once the price returns to this range, the impulse to “break even” turns into actual sell orders.
Data from September 27 confirms this. ETH touched $2742 earlier this week, immediately triggering a rejection that liquidated over $96 million in long positions, dragging the price back near $2635.
Every time it pushes toward 2750, there’s a group of people “waiting months just to break even” who sell. Market makers know this wall exists. They won’t rush in aggressively. They will probe repeatedly near 2750, letting bulls and bears wear each other down. $ETH $BTC $SOL #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 ETF buying continuously, but failing to lift the market, indicates heavy selling pressure above. Overall, entering garbage time, controlling your hands is most important. $BTC：83,598.6 +0.27%。 Resistance above is 85,000/86,000, and support below is at 82,000/80,000. Slight gains and flat trading volume, average volume, ETF consecutive buying without a rally, indicating significant selling pressure; wait for confirmation on pullback. $ETH：2,691.96 +0.53%。 Resistance is at 2,750/2,800 above, and support below is at 2,650/2,600. Following the broader market with a slight rebound, the trend is weak, with no independent market for now; the main approach is to wait and see. $OKB：118.96 +1.21%。 Resistance above is 122/125, and support below is at 115/112. Platform coins have slightly rebounded with little volatility, making it suitable for careful observation. $SOL：118.78 +0.06%。 Resistance above is 125/130, and support below is at 115/112. Strong resilience, with trading volume exceeding 100 million and ecosystem activity remaining. A pullback near 115 is considered support. $DOGE：0.09386 +0.55%。 Resistance is at 0.10/0.105 above, and support at 0.09/0.085 below. The Meme sector is consolidating sideways, sentiment is fading, and for now, it's just a spectacle. $XRP：1.4952 +0.02%。 Resistance is at 1.55/1.60 above, and support below is at 1.45/1.40. The trend is lukewarm, lacking capital attention; wait until the direction becomes clearer $BCH：31The real decisive level is moving up: $BTC is not about whether it will rebound, but whether it can turn the upper edge of the 82–86K range into support. Current market prices are approximately $BTC 83,536, $ETH 2,689.6, $SOL 118.9, still weak over the past 24 hours; 85–87K remains the first obvious resistance, and if there is no close confirmation after a rally, the range logic remains unchanged.
I will break down the conditions: only if the weekly close stands above 85K and holds on a pullback will I consider extending above 87K; if it falls back to 82K again, treat it as consolidation before the monthly close. The larger 65–68K invalidation zone can only serve as a risk boundary, not as a substitute for the current entry signal.
So my market view is very simple: first watch the close, then the volume, and finally decide whether to follow. I will not chase prices just because intraday resistance is pierced, nor will I guess the direction in the middle of the range. Are you more focused on the breakout confirmation at 85K or the defense at 82K? For information sharing only, not investment advice.【100U Challenge 10000U】Day 5
Date: 2026.09.29
Principal: 100U
Total Assets: 97.73U (No Position)
Today's P&L: +0.73U
Cumulative Profit: -2.27U (-2.27%)
Target Progress: 97.73/10000U, 9902.27U remaining
Operation: Morning flash NMR/USDT 20x short grid. Invested 7U, ran for 52 minutes, grid profit +0.76U, total profit +0.73U (+10.45%), arbitraged 171 times, manually took profit.
SOL 116 limit buy order not filled, order canceled.
Review: NMR has good liquidity and high volatility, grid arbitrage efficiency is excellent. Quick in and out, no greed or attachment, precisely executed the "flash" tactic. Geopolitical and macro risks remain, market direction unclear, maintaining light positions for testing.
Plan: Continue to focus on defense today, no blind orders. Pay attention to tonight's US stock market open and this week's PCE/non-farm data, waiting for definite opportunities.
#100UChallenge10000U #Day5 #GridArbitrage Japan's two-year government bond yield surged to 1.975%, the highest since 1995.
It overturns a three-decade-old common belief—that Japan's interest rates have long hovered near zero, making it the source of the world's cheapest money.
Arbitrage trades rely on this cheap yen: borrowing inexpensive yen to buy higher-yielding overseas assets.
Once domestic Japanese interest rates rise, the cost of this funding chain must be reassessed, and part of the liquidity in global risk assets is withdrawn in this way.Bitcoin's weekly chart and its daily chart are telling two different stories, and that contradiction is the real trade this week. $BTC slipped toward 83.4K on Monday, repeatedly losing the 84K shelf and testing 83.2K, while $ETH traded near 2,653 after surrendering 2.70K and probing 2.64K. The higher timeframe still looks strong. The daily looks heavy. Same asset, opposite answers. That divergence is not noise. It is a positioning clue. Trend followers anchored to the weekly structure have littlPrecise top escape at 1695.5! $ZEC short position achieved 108% profit technical breakdown📊
Today is our "Technical Dry Goods Day."🌞
My short position entered at 1662.18 gained a floating profit of 108.91% (earned 43.44U)! Pure technical content today, explaining why I was able to hold this position.
——————
📊 Why was this short position able to hold the profit? (Referencing Chart 2 daily line, Chart 1 four-hour line)
1. Daily level top signal: ZEC surged from 385 to 1695.5, more than quadrupling. On the daily chart, several consecutive long upper shadows indicate extremely heavy selling pressure above, and the bullish momentum is severely exhausted.
2. Key support break: After breaking below the 1600 round number, panic selling was triggered immediately.
3. Moving averages all in bearish alignment: On the four-hour chart, MA5, MA13, and MA21 all turned downward and diverged; MACD formed a death cross below the zero line, and the green momentum bars continued to expand. This pattern supports trend-following shorting.
4. KDJ's J line dropped to 1.25 (Chart 1), extremely oversold, indicating the short-selling pressure has been released to an extreme in the short term, with a possible rebound at any time.
——————
📉 Negative example, look at my positions (Chart 1):
$AAVE short position (floating loss -17.14%) and crude oil CL short position (floating loss -24.53%).
This is the clearest contrast! Following the trend to short $ZEC yielded profits, while going against the trend to top other assets led to deep losses.
Where technicals do not support, stubbornly holding on only leads to deeper trouble.
——————
💡 Technical dry goods summary:
When trading contracts, never catch a falling knife when moving averages are diverging downward.
$ZEC is currently near 1483, with a very low J value; do not blindly chase shorts at this level.
I plan to set trailing take-profits in batches between 1450-1400 to secure gains.
(Disclaimer: The above is only a personal trading review record and does not constitute any investment advice. Contract trading carries very high risk; please pay close attention to risk control.)
💬 Brothers, from a technical perspective, with $ZEC's current dip, where is the next strong support level?
Which indicators do you mainly use for trading? Moving averages, MACD, or KDJ?
Let's discuss technicals in the comments and learn from each other!👇
#ZEC #AAVE #CrudeOilCL #OKEX #TradingExperience #Cryptocurrency #TechnicalAnalysis Morning roundup｜One trade earned 300%, another is on the verge of liquidation, the harsh reality of contracts is all in these two orders
✅$HYPE
Current price 87.44, retraced 4.63%, nominal long-short ratio as high as 409.26%, 971 whales holding long positions, large holders' average entry at 82.91, main force's base position intact.
My 20x full position long order, entry at 73.897, floating profit +2032.5U, return rate +309.90%.
Following the trend, the retracement is just a shakeout, follow the capital flow direction, patiently holding will yield big profits.
❌$BICO
Current price 0.02063, plunged 9.68%, continuously hitting new lows. Smart money data is very clear: 248 long traders collectively losing, short funds continuously controlling the market.
8x full position long order, entry at 0.03495, floating loss expanded to -1446.13U, return rate -555.65%, margin left only 4.30%.
Many people fall in contracts because of the obsession with "holding on to break even."
The market shows no mercy to those trapped.
A downtrend with the trend is a shakeout; a downtrend against the trend is a bottomless pit. Under leverage, one spike and all waiting goes straight to zero.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 $ZEC finally dropped for me, finally got some profit
The first time I shorted, I got stuck, but I didn't run.
The second time, I actually kept adding to my short position.
At the worst moment, ZEC surged all the way to 1694, I almost doubted if I shorted wrong 😂
Now it's 1485.
The short position profit finally hit 48%.
The more stubborn I was before, the more satisfying it is now.
But it's not over yet.
I'm still watching this trade. 83,000, I last caught the dip at this level too
Staring at two report cards, the price just won't move.
What I did:
Before the Nonfarm and PCE, I added to my position, betting on soft data.
But the data didn't come out, and I first got worn down by sideways trading, losing half my position.
The lesson is here:
The ETF locked up over a million coins, while miners only release about 400 coins daily.
With such tight supply, the price still stays flat.
This shows that short-term pricing power isn't in scarcity, but in that piece of paper called the dollar.
Core PCE was 3.3% last time, Nonfarm was 160,000 last month.
This time the market estimates 100,000; if either number is strong, $BTC will have to dip again.
Being fully invested before data is an old mistake I've made.
Wednesday at 8:30 PM, first watch the PCE.
This time I'm waiting empty-handed, not rushing in.
Even Wall Street dogs have to learn to wait.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $BTC Greed index at 74, yet the funding rate is positive—Is this drop in ZEC a shakeout or a trend reversal?
Here's the answer: $ZEC is bearish in the short term but has entered an oversold battleground zone. Chasing shorts is not cost-effective; shorting on rebounds is safer. Current price is 1483.61, down 6.90% in 24h, with a trading volume of 320.7M USDT, volume is not shrinking. Moving averages show MA5=1467.65 below MA20=1528.91, a clear bearish alignment; RSI is only 35.0, near oversold but not extreme; MACD histogram at -5.706 remains negative, momentum still bearish. The key contradiction lies in the funding: price dropped nearly 7%, but funding rate is +0.0100%, indicating longs are still paying to hold positions, shorts have not been squeezed yet. This "price down with positive funding" combination often means there is room for a lower wick; the lower Bollinger band at 1448.71 is the first test level. The fear and greed index at 74 remains in the greed zone, sentiment is not cleared, rebounds are easily sold into.
Strategy-wise, short in batches on rebounds to the 1495–1510 range, which is close to MA5 and near the lower edge of the Bollinger middle band; take profit 1 at 1448 (Bollinger lower band support), take profit 2 at the 1400 round number (oversold continuation target); stop loss set above 1540 (if price effectively recovers near MA20, the bearish logic is invalidated). Also watch: $ETH showing relatively strong consolidation, $ALGO strengthening with volume, both stronger than ZEC, with funds favoring stronger assets.Uptrend loosens, beware of deeper pullback After continuous rallies, the market finally shows signs of fatigue. $ZEC peaked at 1683, 1695, but never broke through 1700, now retreating to around 1551, down nearly 2% intraday. The price is hugging the MA5 at 1545, with 1535 as the intraday low; if it breaks further, it may trigger concentrated exits from chasing buyers. $ETH also weakens. After topping at 2724, it has been continuously pressured down, currently at 2644, down 1.6%. The 4-hour MA5, The same resistance being tested repeatedly increases the probability of it being broken — because each probe consumes the sell orders above.8.2 billion USD, all stock, to buy a company that was founded only two years ago.
Fei-Fei Li brought the entire World Labs team into AMD, reporting directly to Lisa Su.
The first thing that popped into my mind when I saw this number wasn’t AI, but computing power.
World Labs is working on spatial intelligence, basically enabling machines to understand the 3D world.
This sounds far removed from the crypto space.
But think about it, the deeper AI goes into the physical world, the more outrageous the computing power it needs.
Computing power costs money, and where does the money come from? Ultimately, it circles back to the capital markets.
This move by AMD is filling the biggest missing piece in its AI narrative.
The deal won’t close until the end of 2026, and there are still many uncertainties.
In the short term, it has nothing to do with the coins we hold.
But if this level of money is still being poured into AI infrastructure, then the lines of computing power, DePIN, and AI concepts are far from being unwanted.
The question is, are the AI coins you hold truly valuable, or are they just riding the name?
#OpenAI与Anthropic调查数万起AI安全事件
#高盛预估2027年AI相关资本开支约1.2万亿美元 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 $AMD NMR surged 43 points this round, I smell smart money.
The 1h candlestick directly broke through, volume 3.2M, not retail investors.
$NMR token symbol appeared, old wallets started moving.
These guys pump at meal times, sneaky. CARDS rose 15 points, volume only 843K.
Small pool, don’t chase.
No big moves on the NFT blue chips side, funds are hiding in old DeFi leaders.
New tokens minting cold, no takers. JUP dropped 12 points, volume 5.7M.
Some are withdrawing, don’t catch the falling knife.
I’m watching NMR on-chain transfers, whales haven’t finished moving yet.
If you want to follow, wait for a pullback, don’t FOMO. The NFT track is about endurance now.
I’ll shout if there’s any abnormal movement.#ZEC再创本轮新高，逼近1700美元 Coinbase has obtained approval from the CFTC and registered Coinbase Clearing LLC as its own derivatives clearinghouse.
With the three pieces of the puzzle—futures commission merchant, designated contract market, and clearinghouse—all in place, it means the entire chain from matching to clearing can be run independently without relying on third parties.
The profit logic of exchanges is shifting from "collecting fees" to capturing every layer of the infrastructure, which is also the moat strategy of leading platforms.$PUMP can be shorted in the range of 0.0055 to 0.0053
👇 Here's the key point:
Don't associate the crypto market with the stock market of any particular country; there is almost no correlation.
If you insist on a connection, it's about capital flow and sector rotation. For example, we can consider cryptocurrencies, gold, and US stocks as three major sectors.
Some also say a certain coin rises or falls during a specific time period, but such a simple trend is unlikely. It only means you often trade during that time frame.
For the virtual currency market, if you want to see the trend, look at $BTC; it is the only true indicator.
❣ Looking at any indicators or news is not as effective as long-term observation of the candlestick chart. The more you see, the more you naturally know when it is highly likely to reverse.Decision-to-Action Lag $xNVDA After the news of Nvidia's buyback at 7 PM, the market immediately surged and then pulled back. The pullback did not break the pre-surge level, and with the US stock market opening approaching, seeing the trend hold, I quickly made a very short-term trade. Later, seeing other US stocks like SanDisk $xSNDK gap up then fall, I followed the trend and retreated during the weak stretch of the long upper shadow, making a nice short-term trade. Seeing correctly is just the🌄 Morning glance: HYPE, ZEC, BNB — who’s the most promising today?
$HYPE near 92, watch 90 today. In the DEX sector, it’s absolutely the leader now. The on-chain contract fee revenue is real, with daily trading volume in the tens of billions of USD. 97% of the revenue is used to buy back tokens, meaning the platform directly shares profits with token holders. The product line is expanding from derivatives to spot and options, making the ecosystem increasingly complete. Holding the 90 level means strong consolidation; if it breaks below, avoid short-term positions — with real income as a floor, buyers will naturally step in after a drop.
$ZEC near 1595, watch 1600 today. After breaking through the 1500 to 1560 range with volume, the pullbacks haven’t broken previous highs, indicating selling pressure has mostly been absorbed. This is a typical sign of a strong breakout. The 1600 round number is the next test; holding above it means a new level. Short-term sharp rises may see corrections, but the trend is bullish. Don’t sell hastily if it holds above 1550 on pullbacks.
$BNB near 775, watch 770 today. Binance has been active in the stablecoin sector recently. Once overseas stablecoin plans advance, it will be the biggest direct beneficiary among major exchanges. Trading volume is light but the position is stable; the 770 level has been tested multiple times without breaking, showing strong defense. If the market chooses a direction, BNB has fallen the least and will rise steadily.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 Avoid heavy positions before the non-farm payrolls; watch these first before the data lands.U.S. stocks fell across the board, with gold and bonds also declining
Wall Street performed poorly today, with stocks, bonds, and gold all dropping.
Due to ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, oil prices remain above $100, and traders have increased bets on another Federal Reserve rate hike.
The S&P 500 index fell 0.8%, nearly erasing September's gains, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.9%. $BTC
Bond prices fell, pushing yields to multi-year highs: the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.23%, the highest since 2007; the 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.55%; and the 5-year Treasury yield rose to 5.07%.
Gold prices dropped nearly 4%, reaching the lowest level since early August. The dollar, oil prices, and Treasury yields all rose. $ETH
Traders now expect about a 70% chance of a rate hike in October, compared to less than 9% at the end of August.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Single Coin Capital Movement Ranking
$NMR price declined, with trading on both sides relatively close: in three sets of 5-minute statistics, active buying accounted for 51.7%, active selling accounted for 48.3%; the current 15-minute K-line dropped by 0.34%; open interest decreased by 1.38%, open interest value changed by -1.21%, indicating a real contraction in open interest, with quantity and value changes moving in the same direction. The price shows a downward trend, and active trading does not show a clear one-sided bias; the current weakness is mainly reflected in the price performance.I'm betting BTC can break 84000 this round! Current price is 83552.9, less than 500 points from the resistance level. The 83000 support has been tested twice without breaking, bullish momentum is building. My 5000U small position was opened long at 83200, stop loss at 82900, target 84500. Never hold a position without a stop loss; recovering from a 200,000U loss, this time I'm bullish. If it breaks 83000, I'll immediately reverse position, never fight the market. $BTC #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 QNT is currently priced at 235, having surged 340% in 7 days. This rally is strongly supported by The Clearing House's on-chain currency program. The SEC has opened a temporary channel for tokenized stocks, the CFTC's rule draft has been submitted to the White House, and regulation is accelerating. Uniswap V4 and V3 have captured 60% of the DEX tokenized stock market share, so the sector logic is sound.
Looking at the chart, QNT is undergoing a high-level pullback and consolidation. The 0.5 Fibonacci support is at 221.20, moving averages are in a bullish alignment but the deviation is too large, so a short-term correction is necessary. On the liquidation map, there are many short positions stacked between 250 and 280 above, while the long liquidation momentum below is weak. This is a typical phase of long-short battle and cleansing.
Just finished changing the registration book at the checkpoint, glanced up at the monitor, the market looks as calm as the road outside the gate, but underneath there are cars everywhere.
In terms of operation, go light and try going long. Enter if it stabilizes around 221, set stop loss below 215, first target 250, if broken then look at 280 for a short squeeze. Exit immediately if it falls below 221, do not hold the position. The current price of 235 is not a good entry point, wait for a pullback.
$QNT
#ZEC再创本轮新高，逼近1700美元
@OKX星球 $ETH
2688 is stuck in the middle, neither up nor down, but the bulls have already squeezed up to 72.4%🤣 The fee rate is 0.007%, indicating that the buyers are more aggressive than the liquidators. As long as 2663 holds, this setup is a short squeeze in the making. By the time it touches 2720, it'll be too late for you to react. A pullback is the perfect opportunity to go long🔥$ZEC has finally dropped.
For this short position, from the first time I was stuck, to the second time I added more shorts, the profit has now reached 48%.
After the first short on ZEC, it not only didn’t fall, but actually kept surging upward.
The most frustrating part at that time was that $BTC had already started to weaken, but ZEC didn’t follow at all, even rallying to around $1694.
But my judgment didn’t change then.
So after being stuck the first time, I added another short.
Looking now, ZEC has fallen from around $1694 back to $1485, down nearly 7% in 24 hours.
The previous strong state of “BTC falls, but ZEC just doesn’t” has finally started to loosen.
However, I’m still not ready to say the ZEC trend is over.
The daily price is still above the 20-day moving average, and around $1400 is the real level I will focus on next.
If it holds, this might just be a high-level pullback after a surge.
If it doesn’t hold, then the nature of the $1694 level will be completely different.
The most interesting part of this trade isn’t that I’ve made 48% now.
It’s why I dared to add more shorts after being stuck the first time.
The market is just beginning to verify this judgment; the conclusion hasn’t come yet. Looking back more than 4 years later at ZB's suspension of deposits and withdrawals: a friend still has the app on his phone, but it won't open
In August 2022, ZB suspended deposits and withdrawals. Looking back, more than 4 years have passed.
A month before the suspension, someone warned a friend: the platform was showing a lot of abnormal coin transfers and sales, so withdraw as much as possible if you can. At the time, he thought, such a big platform wouldn't let his hundred thousand in spot assets have problems, so he didn't act.
Until August 2022, when he logged in to withdraw coins, the page only showed "System maintenance, deposits and withdrawals suspended." By September, more and more news came out, and customer service was unreachable. He slowly accepted that this asset might be very hard to get back.
Now he still has the ZB app on his phone, but opening it doesn't load any content, like an old drawer that won't open.
Have any friends experienced that wave with ZB? How much asset did you have stuck inside? Chat in the comments, and also give a heads-up to those who come later: platform size is not risk control; assets for which you hold your own private keys are more secure.
Just sharing a friend's experience, not investment advice, and not targeting any platform. $BTC $ETH $ZEC These past two days, I still placed a BTC long order at 81800, but it hasn't been filled yet.
Yesterday, the lowest actually hit 82501, just a bit away from my position, but it just didn't go down further. Now it's back around 83500, and I can only watch this order.
What concerns me more is that the market turnover has clearly increased; the 24-hour turnover has reached 1.55 trillion USD, much larger than before. The market isn't just slowly declining; there are buyers around 82500, and if it falls, it quickly gets pulled back.
But I won't chase longs just because I missed the 81800 fill.
From the 1-hour chart, around 83300 is the short-term boundary between bulls and bears, pressure starts near 84000, and above 85000-85100 is still a dense previous trading zone. If it really wants to be strong, it needs to hold above 84000 first; if it returns to around 82500 again, my 81800 order is still there.
Sometimes trading is just this frustrating:
You want to wait for a cheaper price, but the market doesn't give it to you; you don't want to chase highs, but you're afraid it will just run away.
But I'd rather earn less than to change my plan temporarily just because I "have to get in."
Not getting filled isn't scary; chasing recklessly is what really causes problems. Many people ask me why I always open orders near whole number thresholds? BTC current price is 83552.9, support at 83000, resistance at 84000. Because whole number thresholds are psychological levels in the market, a large number of orders are placed here, so the price will definitely react when it reaches these points. I placed a small 5000U long order at 83000, with a stop loss at 82700; if it breaks, I exit. Those who lost 200,000U understand best: never hold a position without a stop loss. Only with proper awareness can you make money. $BTC #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点