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Currently, ETH is fluctuating around $2680, and my short position average price is $2727. This pullback has already proven that the directional judgment was correct. First, looking at the market: ETH clearly faced resistance after surging above 2700, and it has never been able to effectively hold above the 2750 level, with repeated attempts to push higher being suppressed by selling pressure. In the short term, the 2700–2750 range has become a key pressure zone contested by bulls and bears. Next, looking at the capital side, the market is not as unanimously bullish as imagined. Although ETH recently surged above $2740, the latest data shows that the US spot ETH ETF has still seen strong capital inflows over the past few trading days, totaling about $747 million over 5 days, indicating that institutional funds have not fully withdrawn. Meanwhile, the ETH staking yield is currently about 2.62%, significantly lower than the US 10-year Treasury yield, and this yield gap puts some pressure on ETH's institutional allocation logic. So what really deserves attention here is not "institutions all running away," but: Can the capital inflow keep up as the price continues to rise? Now looking at BTC. A few days ago, BTC once broke through $87,000, during which there was a large-scale short squeeze, with daily crypto market short liquidations reaching about $648 million; meanwhile, the open interest in derivatives contracts once rose to about $156 billion, indicating that leverage remains very high. However, the market has now seen a very interesting change: BTC ETFs have not stoppedBitcoin at 84,000, Ethereum at 2,600, Solana at 121. Another day of sideways movement, with these three coins barely moving. Some might find it boring, but I'm increasingly convinced: this quiet is a buildup. Look at the structure, Bitcoin has been oscillating between 83,000 and 85,000 for almost a week now. The fact it can't drop means there are buyers below; the fact it can't rise means it's just waiting for a catalyst. The longer the sideways consolidation, the more energy accumulates, and once the direction is chosen, the market often moves fiercely. At this stage, the most important thing is not to stare at the charts guessing the direction, but to review your plan again: what to do if it rises, what to do if it falls, are your orders placed properly, do you have enough bullets left. My three-tier buy orders remain in place at 82,500, 80,000, and 78,000, not moving a bit. If the market offers a price, I take it; if not, I watch. In trading, in the end, it's not about who predicts better, but who endures longer. Those who can stick to discipline and stay calm during silent sideways movement are the ones qualified to wait for the day the market kicks off. Tonight, keep doing what you should, the market watches for you, the plan executes for you. The reason is simple: the directional logic hasn't changed. This ETH short position was opened near 2640, currently showing an unrealized loss close to 800U. However, previous partial profit-taking has already secured 544U, so the net drawdown after calculation is just over 200U. Of course, the profits made earlier can only buffer the drawdown and cannot be considered a "get-out-of-jail-free card" for the current position. Therefore, my stop loss remains clearly set at 2800; if this level is effectively broken, the strategy must be reassessed. Currently, ETH is oscillating around 2690, with short-term moving averages on the 1-hour chart gradually converging. The previous one-sided downward momentum has clearly weakened, and the short-term market has entered a phase of renewed competition between bulls and bears. The focus now is on two key levels: 🔻 2680: the first critical short-term support; if broken, continue to watch the 2650–2640 area 🔺 2800: the risk boundary for the short position; as long as it is not truly broken, I will patiently observe according to the original plan. Meanwhile, BTC's funding situation is actually not weak. The US spot BTC ETF has seen net inflows for 6 consecutive trading days, totaling over $2.8 billion, but the latest daily inflow has dropped to about $191 million, significantly cooling compared to the highest single-day inflow of about $999 million in this round. This means institutional funds are still buying, but short-term momentum for chasing gains is weakening. The macro side is also worth monitoring. Long-term US Treasury yields remain high; on September 24, the US 30-year Treasury yield briefly rose to 5.48%, and the 10-year yield reached about OKB shares some private thoughts: the enthusiastic wave at 126.5 over the weekend was completely missed.
Yesterday opened at 119.8, peaked at 121.2, bottomed at 118.9, closed at 119.9, with a volume of 11.85 million. Today opened at 119.9, peaked at 122.1, bottomed at 119.9, current price around 121.0. Volume is 6.88 million, halved over the weekend.
Resistance remains at 121.0–122.1 above, with heavier pressure at 126.5. On the downside, watch 119.9 first; if broken, 118.9 is likely.
Don't chase 122.1 in the short term. For those already holding, watch if 119.9 support holds; if not, reduce a bit. The volume contraction over the weekend can be seen as digestion; wait for volume to return Monday to see if it can hold above 121 again. $OKB ZEC's volume this weekend was directly halved; after touching 1565, no one played anymore, and the high point at 1680 has now become just decoration.
Yesterday's low was 1501, the high was 1625, and it closed at 1546. Today it opened around 1545, with a high of 1565 and a low of 1515, current price about 1542. Volume dropped from 85.89 million to just over 24 million, a typical weekend low-volume sideways consolidation.
The resistance in the past two days is between 1565 and 1625; above that is 1680. If it breaks below 1515, it’s likely to test 1501 first; if that level can't hold, the short term may look for space down to 1457.
In the short term, watch if the current price around 1542 can hold. If it can't hold, consider it as still digesting the drop from 1680, and don't chase at this price. For those already holding, watch if the low at 1515 today can hold; if not, reduce some positions. For those looking to buy, wait for a pullback and consider only if it can't break through 1625; don't catch a falling knife in midair. $ZEC $100M is sitting in DeFi—and doing two jobs at once.
Galaxy placed $100M of sUSDS on its own balance sheet, then approved the same yield-bearing asset as collateral across a $1.4B institutional loan book. Clients can keep earning the Sky Savings Rate while borrowing against it.
$SKY is now $0.07897 on OKX, +6.22%/24h. Idle collateral is becoming an expensive habit.$SOL has new capital signals again!
Circle has just issued two consecutive USDC increases on Solana, each worth $250 million, totaling $500 million.
What does this mean?
Simply put, the dollar liquidity on the Solana chain has increased again. $BTC
USDC itself is not meant for speculation, but after entering the Solana ecosystem, it can be used for trading, DeFi, lending, and various on-chain capital turnovers.
So what the market really needs to watch is not how big the "$500 million" number is, but whether this batch of USDC will flow into exchanges, DeFi, and market makers. $ETH
If a large amount starts entering the market later, it means the available liquidity in the Solana ecosystem will further increase, which is a positive signal for SOL and the entire Solana ecosystem.
Of course, issuance does not mean the funds have directly bought SOL yet. Circle also has a mechanism for pre-minting USDC on Solana, so simply seeing "issuance" cannot be directly equated with new capital entering.
But one point worth noting:
Stablecoins are increasingly concentrating on Solana, and dollar liquidity is continuously being replenished.
So next, I will focus on two things:
Where USDC flows + whether SOL can follow with volume.
If funds really start entering trading and DeFi, this wave of SOL might not just simply follow the broader market.
Liquidity is coming; the worst thing is not that there is no market, but that you are not ready yet. 9/26 21:13 84000 Spent the whole day, three lines simultaneously stuck between MA5 and MA10, waiting for direction
$BTC 84,060 (+0.31%): The rate hike was priced in early, so it's not a negative surprise; the real pressure is on the long end — 10Y broke 5%, 30Y once hit 5.5%, Brent crude oil fluctuates near $100.
$HYPE 91.94 (+1.09%): 97% fee income buyback is real; but unlocks on 9/29 and 10/6, protocol revenue down year-on-year → buybacks are shrinking. 90 is the watershed, MA10 is temporarily holding.
$SNDK 1,776 (+0.44%): Driven by NAND price increases + AI long-term contracts, not earnings season (reported on 8/5). 1,800 is a dual threshold of MA5 and a round number, only above counts.
Commonality of the three lines: all pressed below MA5, standing above MA10 — short-term weak, mid-term not broken. Money flows within the range to places with income; breaking below 83,000 means fundamentals will cause a sharper drop.
Personal record, not investment advice.
#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
#特朗普据悉拒绝7天方案，霍尔木兹重开再生变 HYPE's spike to 92.88 today surged briefly, but no one dared to follow the wave at 94.80.
Yesterday's low was 90.39, high was 94.80, closing at 90.93. Today opened around 90.94, peaked at 92.88 without breaking through, dipped to 90.77, current price about 92.17. Volume ratio shrank significantly compared to yesterday, after the upward surge it’s still fluctuating.
Resistance remains between 92.88 and 94.80, with 98.04 above that. If it breaks below 90.77, it’s likely to test 90.39 first; if that support fails, short-term price may drop to 89.89 to find space.
Short-term focus is whether the current price around 92.17 can hold. If it can’t, treat it as still digesting the drop from 98.04, don’t chase at this price. For holders, watch if the low at 90.77 today can hold; if not, consider reducing positions. For those looking to buy, wait for a pullback and reconsider if it can’t break through 94.80, don’t catch a falling knife mid-air. $HYPE Does a bullish moving average alignment mean the trend is healthy?
Not necessarily. A truly healthy trend is when the price moves upward along the short-term moving average, pulls back without breaking the mid-term moving average, and momentum indicators show no divergence. Taking $BABY as an example: current price is 0.01413, MA5=0.014034 has crossed above MA20=0.0135835, indicating a bullish moving average structure; however, RSI has reached 71, entering the overbought zone, and the upper Bollinger Band at 0.0142484 is just overhead, indicating that the cost-effectiveness of chasing a short-term rally is declining. Meanwhile, the funding rate is +0.0050%, meaning longs must pay to hold positions, showing overheated sentiment; the Fear and Greed Index is 74, indicating the market is overall in a greedy state. Under this combination, the trend direction remains upward, but the rhythm is more likely to pull back first before advancing.
Operationally, maintain a bullish view but do not chase highs. Entry reference is 0.01380–0.01400, near MA5 and the pullback zone above the Bollinger middle band, because the bullish moving average alignment provides support, and the MACD histogram is still positive with momentum not weakening. Take profit 1 is at 0.01425, corresponding to resistance at the upper Bollinger Band; take profit 2 is at 0.01460, an extended target after breaking the upper band. Stop loss is set at 0.01345; if it falls below MA20, the bullish structure is broken and exit is necessary.
Also watch: $CRCLB, $AMP.SOL recently had a major upgrade, launching on the mainnet on September 28.
Simply put: the transfer confirmation speed was reduced from 13 seconds to 0.15 seconds, much faster.
But note: the official said this 0.15 seconds is based on simulation tests; the real mainnet hasn't been verified yet, so it might not be that fast in practice.
On the funding side: SOL's ETF recently saw an inflow of $26 million, with institutions buying.
The upgrade is truly positive news, but prices often "pull back after good news is priced in" $SOL $BTC $ETH $AKE family, let's talk about this new coin AKE.
When it just launched, the hype was intense, shooting straight above 0.16. Many people were envious, thinking they caught a new coin to ride a big wave.
But the hype was short-lived; after peaking, it kept falling, nearly halving in seven days. Many chased at the peak and are now stuck tight.
This is the biggest pitfall of new coins: the explosive power during the pump looks scary, but once the main funds withdraw, the drop has no bottom. A large chunk of trapped holders remain stuck above, and even a slight rise triggers many to rush out, making rebounds heavily resisted.
Many friends see the big drop and feel itchy, thinking it must have bottomed out after such a fall, rushing to catch the bottom. Honestly, new coins don’t have the “big drop means safe” rule; after falling, they can keep falling.
Never try to catch the bottom of such newly launched coins based on feeling; the uncertainty is too high. Even playing with small money requires caution, let alone betting heavily on a reversal.*Bitcoin Latest September 27 Early Morning Chinese*
*Current Price $84,132 | $83,174-$84,715 Fluctuation | +0.03%*
*1. ETF $2.84 Billion Shift*
$2.84 billion inflow in 6 days, this year shifted from -$5.8 billion to +$800 million, IBIT $1.16 billion. Yesterday paused at -$11.8 million, $87,399 not broken
*2. $15.9 Billion Options Expire Today at 8 AM*
Max pain point $85K, every 1% drop has a $142 million buy wall, $84K can't fall further. After expiration, looking up to $90K shorts $2B, down to $80K longs $5.2B
*3. US Treasury 5.22% Nineteen-Year High*
US 10-year 5.22%, Japan 30-year 4.223%, borrowing is most expensive, but BTC holds MA10 $82,963
*Resistance $84,650 Support $82,963 Strong Support $80,172, reclaiming $84,650 targets $90K*Today's crypto market did not move in complete sync: $BTC is more like consolidating at a high level, $ETH is testing risk appetite, and $SOL maintains stronger resilience. 📌 $BTC: High-level digestion, waiting for new catalysts $BTC is currently fluctuating around $84.2K, with a slight 0.4% decline in 24 hours, still maintaining about a 2.8% gain over the past 7 days. Previously, BTC surged to $87.4K, then pulled back to the $83K area, and now has returned to around $84K. Structurally, this looks more like a high-level consolidation after a rise rather than a simple trend reversal. In the short term, what really needs to be observed is whether the $83K–$84K support zone can hold and whether it can challenge above $87K again. There are also some changes in the capital flow: 🇺🇸 The US spot BTC ETF has recently maintained continuous net inflows, but the single-day fund scale has clearly cooled down compared to previous peaks. Funds have not obviously withdrawn, but the chasing enthusiasm is weakening. This means the market is gradually shifting from "fast accumulation" to "waiting for confirmation." 📌 $ETH: The battle around $2.7K remains key $ETH is currently hovering around $2.72K, having pulled back after testing $2.8K earlier. In the short term, $2.70K is an important observation area; if it can stabilize again between $2.75K–$2.80K, the market may refocus on the $3K area. Conversely, if it fails to holdHashrate showdown! When “Core Fundamentalism” meets a hard fork, which one is the real Bitcoin? ⚠️ This article is only an on-chain ideological review and does not constitute any investment advice. The BTCFi sector has always had a highly confusing narrative: CORE is born relying on Bitcoin’s hashrate, inheriting Satoshi Nakamoto’s spirit, and is the “true evolutionary version of Bitcoin.” After the hard fork event on 8.31, this narrative faces its ultimate test. When CORE’s “BTC hashrate fundamentalism” clashes with the underlying beliefs of the native Bitcoin community, a debate about “who is the real Bitcoin” unfolds. First, clarify the concepts: here, CORE refers to the CORE public chain with Satoshi Plus hybrid consensus; Bitcoin Core is the Bitcoin mainnet client development team—these two are completely different. The so-called “Core Fundamentalism” is the belief held by some supporters in the CORE community: Bitcoin hashrate = Bitcoin security, as long as BTC hashrate is used for endorsement, it inherits Bitcoin’s spirit and is an extension of Bitcoin. 1. The core claim of Core Fundamentalism The underlying logic of this belief is simple: 1. Bitcoin’s strongest moat is its massive POW hashrate; 2. CORE’s Satoshi Plus consensus allows Bitcoin miners to delegate hashrate to guard this chain, effectively transplanting Bitcoin’s security capabilities; 3. The native Bitcoin mainnet lacks smart contracts and cannot do BTCFi; CORIn the last bull market, the four major Ethereum L2 champions, $ARB, after Robinhood Chain made the list, experienced a trend rally, and STRK, riding the anonymous privacy track, also rose significantly from the bottom.
Now only $OP and $ZK are still hovering in the bottom range.
OP seems to have a partnership with BASE. If BASE launches its chain later and adopts OP's technology like Robinhood Chain uses ARB technology, OP might also experience a trend rally.
ZK is a project even praised by Vitalik. If ETH transforms into a privacy public chain in the future, ZK, as a technical bridge, could directly benefit.
The four major L2 champions opened high and fell low in the last bull market, dropping close to zero, and most people were probably washed out.
I still hold the view:
The L2 track is still worth attention in this bull market; it depends on whether OP and ZK can find their new narratives going forward. $DASH
DASH taught me one thing: occasionally making money by shorting can easily create the illusion of "I understand it." Then you keep shorting and keep losing. If you can't beat it, join it. Starting today, I respect the trend.📈When Wall Street's interest rate hammer strikes the crypto world, some tremble while others quietly buy the dip
$BTC: Oscillating near $84,000, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising above 5.2% posing major pressure. However, BTC spot ETFs have reversed a previous $5.8 billion loss in net inflows this year, with institutional funds continuously providing support. Facing macro headwinds and institutional backing, treat the short term as range-bound, watching the $83,000 support level for effectiveness; avoid chasing highs
$ETH: $2,691, up 2.39% this week, with institutional funds continuously flowing in via ETFs. On-chain data shows exchange ETH holdings account for only 3.49%, indicating limited selling pressure. The ecosystem fundamentals are solid; if BTC stabilizes, ETH is likely to follow upward. Watch for support near $2,660
$SOL: Current price around $121, with the Alpenglow upgrade already running on the testnet, aiming to reduce final confirmation time from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds. Nasdaq-listed Forward Industries plans to raise $25 million to increase SOL holdings. Technical upgrades and corporate accumulation form a dual positive; consider accumulating in batches on pullbacks below $120
$ZEC: Current price around $1,545, with a 587% increase over the past 180 days. Highly controversial, with one side accusing whales of controlling 200,000 coins ready to dump anytime, while the other believes it is capturing Bitcoin's overflow funds focused on privacy and anti-quantum narratives. Recommendation: extremely volatile and high-risk speculative asset, suitable only for small position probing with strict stop-loss settingsDuring the altcoin frenzy, the years five or six ago should be remembered most
BTC has stabilized around $84,000, but altcoins are blooming everywhere. Many immediately translate this as: the bull is here, the altcoin season has arrived. The logic seems straightforward—BTC is too expensive, doubling is difficult; altcoins are cheap, so there's the imagination of financial freedom. So retail investors rush in, turning "bottom fishing" into "chasing highs."
But what the market loves to exploit most is precisely this consensus. In the last bull market, altcoins also gave people illusions early on, but most coins followed the decline rather than the rise, with only a very few breaking out, and most left with a long, slow downtrend. Money flowing into altcoins is not necessarily due to value discovery; it could also be because the BTC ticket is too expensive and new stories are needed to sustain sentiment.
I believed this a few years ago too. Someone at home held a handful of altcoin spot for five or six years, unwilling in heart, stubborn in thought, and in the end could only be slaughtered. The financial world kills not only in crashes but also by giving you hope and then slowly taking it away.
Now BTC spot ETFs have attracted over $2.8 billion in six consecutive days, with institutional funds buying BTC, while the altcoin frenzy looks more like retail investors fighting among themselves. Will we be fooled again? Time will tell. The excitement can be watched, but positions must be clear: don’t bet all your dreams on a place where "most will be disappointed."
#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #特朗普据悉拒绝7天方案，霍尔木兹重开再生变 $BTC $ETH #Trump reportedly rejects 7-day plan, Hormuz reopening faces new changes
The recent US-Iran situation remains deadlocked, with the US directly rejecting Iran's ceasefire proposal and signaling expectations for subsequent military actions. However, the market has grown fatigued; crude oil surged then retreated, and the geopolitical conflict premium is rapidly weakening. Essentially, this is a prolonged game of attrition between both sides, with no clear short-term winner.
Currently, the entire macro transmission chain is very clear: Middle East risks underpin oil prices, oil prices stabilize inflation expectations, which directly pushes long-term US Treasury yields to multi-year highs. Ultra-high risk-free yields suppress the overall market, significantly raising the cost of holding currency, which is the core reason BTC continues to face pressure.
From the market perspective, $BTC is grinding intensely in the 84,000–88,000 range, with balanced long and short liquidations and active leverage withdrawal, no panic selling pressure—this is purely a balance of macro suppression and institutional support.
Two common misconceptions to note: the crypto market reacts with a lag to crude oil and gold, so do not use short-term commodity fluctuations to predict crypto prices; the narrative of a sharp oil price surge circulating online is outdated, with the latest institutional reports having revised this view, making it of very limited reference value.
At this stage, there is no need to worry about whether the geopolitical conflict will escalate; the focus should be on whether oil prices and US Treasury yields can ease. As long as inflation expectations remain high, the market will struggle to form a clear one-sided trend.
Currently, the range for game-playing is very narrow with low win rates. The situation is highly uncertain, so avoid blindly guessing tops or bottoms. The best approach in the current market is to watch more, act less, and patiently wait for a clear direction. Every few days, I review BTC's market trends over the past few years to optimize my system, only to find that no matter what I do, it's wrong. I review until I feel overwhelmed. Looking back, since I am examining my trades from a god's-eye view, of course, everything seems wrong. The more I review, the more sensitive I become to my system. From this god's-eye perspective, all I see are shadows of my losses; the profitable trades are ignored by myself. Today might be an important turning point. The market is basically either trending, oscillating, or in a wide channel. Different backgrounds require different trading methods. Maybe! Perhaps! Hmm! Let's aim to double in October first! $BTC #*Bitcoin Latest September 27 Chinese Express*
*Current Price $84,132 | Range $83,174-$84,715*
*1. ETF $2.84B Inflow, Full Year Turns Positive*
$2.84B inflow in 6 days, pulling from -$5.8B to +$800M, IBIT leads with $1.16B. Yesterday paused at -$11.8M, so $87,399 was not broken
*2. $15.9B Options Expire Today*
Max pain point $85K, every 1% drop equals $142M buy wall, $84,132 resists falling. After expiration, choose direction: bulls target $90K shorts $2B, bears target $80K longs $5.2B
*3. US Treasury 5.22% Nineteen-Year High*
Borrowing costs most expensive, but BTC holds MA10 $82,963, strong
*Above $84,650 targets $90K, below $82,963 targets $80,172. Don't wait for $79K, institutional cost is between $80K-$84K.*On-chain major alert🔥$BTC unrealized profit rate hits a new high since December 2024! The bull market is not over; a round of correction and reset is on the way
Many people only focus on K-line price fluctuations but overlook that on-chain data is the real trump card of capital.
Currently, Bitcoin's unrealized profit rate has surged to 33%, reaching the highest level since December 2024.
Along with the soaring floating profits, the market has seen the largest single profit-taking sell-off in 2026: 25,700 BTC sold in a concentrated manner.
This is a textbook market signal: the momentum of this rally is weakening.
Core logic to understand the current market
1. The entire market's on-paper profits have piled up too high, with a large number of positions ready to be realized and exited at any time;
2. Massive sell orders are flooding out, but the newly added buy orders and fresh capital in the market are insufficient to fully absorb this selling pressure;
3. Historical comparison: the last time the unrealized profit rate reached this level was December 2024, after which the market experienced a prolonged correction lasting several months.
This rally has been impressive enough, but on-chain data has already given a clear signal:
Before starting the next higher main upward wave, the market needs a correction and reset.
⚠️ Important to distinguish: a correction within a bull market does not mean the bull market is over.
This kind of pullback essentially cleans out floating positions and digests profit-taking, reloading momentum for the subsequent rally.
Every deep correction in a bull market paves the way for higher prices later, but short-term volatility and sharp declines must not be ignored.
Weekend market liquidity is naturally weak, with frequent false breakouts and spike moves, combined with pressure from on-chain profit-taking; be sure to stay alert before the weekend, reduce positions, and avoid heavy chasing of highs.
Trading advice
The current market is a typical long-term bullish trend with rising short-term risks.
Do not blindly hold full positions just because the bull market is still ongoing; nor should you turn bearish on the long cycle just because of short-term correction signals.
In a volatile market, strictly control leverage, always use stop-losses, patiently wait for boundary signals, and avoid opening random trades in between.
Patiently wait for the market to complete this profit reset; that is the starting point for the next opportunity. *Bitcoin Latest News September 27, 3 AM Chinese*
*Current Price $84,132 | 24H Range $83,174 - $84,715 | +0.03% Narrow Volatility*
*1. ETF $2.84B Turnaround*
Net inflow of $2.84B in the past 6 days, turning from -$5.8B this year to +$800M, one of the strongest ever
This week $2.39B, BlackRock IBIT $1.16B, Fidelity FBTC $700M
But yesterday -$11.8M, breaking a 4-day winning streak, so $87,399 can't be reached
*2. $15.9B Options Expiring Today, Deciding Between $90K or $80K*
Max pain point at $85K, with a $142M buy wall supporting for every 1% drop, which is why $84,132 won't fall further
After expiration, $2B shorts between $87K-$90K await liquidation above, and $5.2B longs between $80K-$85K await liquidation below, one of the two will prevail
*3. US Treasury 5.22% Nineteen-Year High, But BTC Didn't Crash*
US 10-year at 5.22%, Japan 30-year at 4.223%, global highs, borrowing costs at their most expensive
BTC still holding above MA10 $82,963, indicating real institutional buying
*4. Technicals*
After a surge from $74,955 to $87,399, volume shrank to 1.0k during the pullback, which is healthy
Resistance at MA5 $84,650, support at MA10 $82,963, 📊 Individuals added 107K BTC in Q3 so far
While funds and ETFs cut 39K BTC, governments trimmed 11K and businesses dropped 2K $BTC
That's a full reversal from earlier this year, when individuals were the ones selling
River says retail is now accumulating at its fastest pace in years
Everyone's been watching ETF flows — but the wallets moving the other way might be the real story here
If this keeps up, the supply picture starts to look different
Watching what Q4 brings
$ETH 【Dissection #4b｜AAPL: Main Score No. 4, Why I Still Watch It】
Main Score 73.0｜Tag ❄️ Weekly Only
① How the Main Score is Derived
The main score is normalized from four layers of factors into a 0–100 scale; sub-items and weights are not disclosed.
Four layers of relative strength:
Trend ████████████
Momentum ███
Volume ███████
Fuel ███
(The bars compare the four layers relative to each other, not absolute scores.)
② Who's Next to It
USELESS Main Score 78.0｜🔥 Strong · Blind
RAY Main Score 77.0｜📈 Trend Hold
A high main score does not equal buyability: position determines odds, odds determine whether to act.
③ Can It Be Bought?
Passed. High score + acceptable position means it enters the "Doable" list.
Next Dissection: AERO, name it in the comments.
———
Data comes from a self-built mechanical scanning system: over two hundred mainstream contracts, confirmed on daily and weekly cycles,
four-layer factor scoring → phase classification → odds gate → position filtering. All outputs are programmatic, no subjective judgment involved.
Parameters and weights are undisclosed. Not investment advice, no guarantee of returns,
crypto assets are highly volatile, please assess your risk tolerance independently.
#OKX星球 #QuantitativeTrading #Dissection "Liquidity Exhaustion in Lightning Network Channels: The Micro Dilemma of High-Frequency Small Payments"
The Lightning Network is often regarded as the ultimate solution to Bitcoin's scalability, but in practical engineering deployment, liquidity rebalancing of routing nodes constitutes the core bottleneck for its large-scale expansion. $BTC
Micro Mechanisms of Liquidity in State Channels:
1. Bidirectional Locking of Channel Capacity: In state channels, funds can only flow bidirectionally within the fixed amount deposited at channel establishment. Once one side makes too many one-way payments, that side's liquidity is completely exhausted, making it impossible to continue supporting subsequent transfers.
2. High Friction in Node Rebalancing: Large routing nodes must frequently initiate on-chain transactions on the mainnet or use circular submarine swaps to maintain bidirectional channel flow, incurring extremely high Gas costs during mainnet congestion.
3. Intensified Centralized Hub Trend: To reduce settlement friction, network transactions gradually concentrate toward a very small number of highly capitalized centralized nodes, objectively posing new challenges to the network's decentralization and censorship resistance.
Only by understanding the capital lock-up costs behind layer-two channels can one objectively assess the real pace of the Lightning Network's daily commercial deployment. $ETH $SOL #BTC spot ETF has attracted over $2.8 billion in inflows for 6 consecutive days
After the Federal Reserve resumed rate hikes, Bitcoin did not experience the market's feared continuous crash; instead, it quickly absorbed selling pressure nearby afterward, showing resilience worth noting.
Currently, Ethereum is generally in a volatile recovery pattern. Keep an eye on $2700, because whether it can rise depends on if ETH can break through with volume. After an earlier peak and pullback, several consecutive candlesticks have been moving sideways at a low level.
If US Treasury yields continue to rise and the dollar strengthens simultaneously, BTC will remain under pressure. However, if Bitcoin still repeatedly holds firm under such macro conditions, the market is trading not just on rate cut expectations but on BTC's own scarcity and institutional demand.
#Trump reportedly rejects 7-day plan, Hormuz reopening faces new changes #US long-term Treasury yields continue to climb, financing pressure intensifies $BTC $ETH $SOL #Stablecoin new regulations advance, payment and settlement accelerate landing
The leader has something to say
The Federal Reserve is going to issue licenses for stablecoins. On September 24, the GENIUS Act will publicly solicit opinions, proposing specific requirements for reserve assets, capital, and risk management, and clarifying the process for banks to apply for issuing payment stablecoins. SoFi has already used SoFiUSD and Mastercard for card settlement and plans to migrate $25 billion of card business over.
I believe stablecoins are transforming from crypto tools into traditional financial infrastructure.
The basis is straightforward. Regulatory rules are clear, banks can apply for issuance, and payment settlement is truly landing. This is not a concept; it is happening. Cross-border payments and demand for dollar assets will be affected.
For the crypto market, this is a long-term positive, but it does not directly boost coin prices in the short term.
After Bitcoin surged to 87,000 and then pulled back, I missed this wave and won’t chase the high. I will wait for a pullback to see if 84,000 to 85,000 can hold, then consider light positions. The Federal Reserve just raised rates, 5-year US Treasury yields broke 5%, and the high interest rate environment remains unchanged, so I won’t heavily bet on direction. $BTC $ETH $SOL
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop-loss set. Good luck.$SOL currently has multiple interpretations. One scenario suggests that the bottom was reached in June, and the worst phase is over. However, the bearish alternative I am watching is an expanded-flat correction pattern for $ETH—where wave C has either already completed or is about to end within the shadowed resistance area you marked.
If we can get a clean five-wave reversal pattern from that area, it would strengthen the argument for a sharp decline pointing to a possible Q4 low. This is the current setup. Unless we see confirmation of that reversal structure completing, this remains just a possibility on the table—not a locked-in outcome.
Be patient. Let the structure "show its cards" before making commitments. Key price levels will tell us which count is actually unfolding. $BTC #BTC spot ETF has attracted over $2.8 billion in inflows for 6 consecutive days BTC spot ETF has attracted over $2.8 billion in inflows for 6 consecutive days. Currently, the US spot BTC ETF has seen net inflows for 6 consecutive trading days, totaling $2.84 billion.
JPMorgan pointed out that IBIT short positions remain close to the highest level of the year, with the put-to-call option ratio significantly higher than that of gold ETFs. Institutions are buying spot while hedging on the derivatives side.
The most critical change is that this wave of inflows has reversed BTC ETF's year-to-date fund flow from a $5.8 billion deficit in mid-July to nearly $800 million in net inflows. The rebound may exceed expectations; if inflows continue to decline, there will be short-term pressure.
#US long-term Treasury yields continue to rise, financing pressure intensifies #Trump reportedly rejects 7-day plan, Hormuz reopening faces new changes $BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC BTC spot ETF has attracted over $2.8 billion in inflows for 6 consecutive days
BTC spot ETFs have seen sustained institutional buying, with cumulative net inflows exceeding $2.8 billion over 6 consecutive trading days. The capital flow has strongly rebounded, becoming the most important support force in this round of crypto market movement. This round of inflows is no longer short-term speculative funds; more traditional institutions are replenishing low allocation positions. Leading products like BlackRock continue to contribute the main incremental funds, continuously absorbing selling pressure during price fluctuations and stabilizing the market bottom. However, it is important to distinguish cause and effect: ETF capital inflows are a result of risk appetite recovery and not the sole driver of the market rise. The Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations still loom over the market, and U.S. Treasury yields and dollar volatility can disrupt institutional allocation willingness at any time. After continuous large inflows, market greed sentiment rises, and once inflows slow or reverse, BTC is prone to concentrated profit-taking. Going forward, the key focus is whether ETF inflows can continue; if inflows stop, the high-level consolidation pattern may be broken. This article is for market opinion sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. #BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 🐋 After the Bitget security incident, I finally told my fans this hard truth: Don't confuse "platform security" with "asset security"
This week, after the Bitget security incident, the official said the cold wallet is secure and some funds are being tracked, but the market has already voted with its feet: funds are moving to self-custody wallets, and retail investors have just started searching "how to export mnemonic phrases."
In the years I've been running the community, the thing I say most often isn't "which coin to buy," but three pieces of common sense:
Exchanges are tools, not safes
Don't screenshot your mnemonic phrase, don't upload it to cloud storage, don't send it to customer service
The worst loss you suffer is often not from picking the wrong coin, but from trusting the wrong person or putting it in the wrong place
When the crypto KOLs are full of "100x/insider/trade signals," you need to stay calm:
No matter how attractive platform tokens are, there is platform risk
No matter how high on-chain yields are, there is contract risk
No matter how familiar the KOL is, they can't bear your liquidation for you
It's Saturday today, don't rush to find the next Alpha.
First ask yourself: If a major exchange announces something tomorrow, where are your coins, can you withdraw them, who holds the private keys?
Personal experience sharing, not investment advice. DYOR, self-custody is not a slogan, it's a survival necessity. The biggest feature of this round of Btc's rise is the very fast speed. BTC rebounded from around $75,000 to around $87,000 in less than a week, with a cumulative increase of over 10%. On September 21, the single-day increase once reached about 6%, setting a stage high. This rise was driven by factors such as inflows into the US spot Bitcoin ETF and short covering.
However, since the beginning of this week, the market has started to show obvious changes.
BTC encountered resistance near $87,000 and then gradually fell back to around $84,000. From a technical structure perspective, the short-term upward momentum has cooled down. The latest market analysis shows there is significant selling pressure around $85,000 to $85,800, and BTC is currently trading below this pressure zone.
ETF funds still provide support, but marginal momentum is weakening.
A very important driving factor for this round of rise is the continuous inflow of funds into the US spot BTC ETF.
On September 21, the US spot BTC ETF had a single-day net inflow of about $999 million, and funds continued to flow in afterward. By September 25, the ETF had maintained net inflows for multiple consecutive trading days, with a cumulative scale reaching tens of billions of dollars.
However, it should be noted that although ETF funds are still flowing in, the daily inflow amount has significantly decreased. It was close to $1 billion on September 21, while the single-day inflow around September 25 dropped to about $190 million.
This means:
Funds have not completely withdrawn, but the marginal force driving the price to continue rising rapidly is weakening.
At the same time, BTC falling back from above $87,000 to around $84,000 also indicates that profit-taking at high levels has become quite obvious.
The most critical thing in the market now is not chasing the rise, but observing the strength of the pullback.
From the current price structure, around $85,000 has become an important short-term resistance area.
If BTC cannot retake $85,000 to $85,800 and form an effective breakout, the profit-taking from the previous rapid rise may continue to be released.
On the downside, the $81,000 to $82,000 area needs to be closely watched.
Recent market analysis also regards this area as a potentially important support zone. If the price pulls back here and quickly sees buying, it indicates that this round of market movement is more of a normal correction after a rise; if this area is also clearly broken, then the pullback structure may further expand.$BTC still going to drop? Trump is causing trouble again
#特朗普据悉拒绝7天方案，霍尔木兹重开再生变
On Friday, crude oil fell about 2% due to progress in negotiations, and the market is still hoping that the Strait of Hormuz can reopen within 7 days. Then news came out that Trump reportedly rejected Iran's proposal.
The report cites anonymous U.S. officials, and Iran is still waiting for an official response from the U.S. But for $BTC, there is one more unresolved issue.
The Strait of Hormuz controls the oil route. If the reopening continues to be delayed and oil prices keep rising, the market will start worrying again about inflation and interest rates. At that point, BTC may not be able to hide behind the label of a “safe-haven asset,” and short-term funds might sell coins first.
Coincidentally, it’s the weekend now, with U.S. stocks and crude oil markets closed, but BTC is still trading. Funds wanting to express concern can easily act first in the crypto space. Currently, BTC is still around $84,000 and hasn’t been directly scared down by this news.
Let’s wait and see if BTC can hold steady after oil prices open next week. If it can really withstand this wave of bad news, the subsequent rebound will be even more promising.$ETH is currently still fluctuating around 2680, entering a clear short-term directional selection phase.
From the structure perspective, the price repeatedly tests the upper resistance but has not yet formed an effective breakout; on the downside, there is continuous buying support.
If it continues to consolidate over the weekend, focus on two areas:
🔹 2700–2740: Upper resistance zone
A breakout and stabilization here is needed to have a chance to test higher levels.
🔹 2650–2625: Lower support zone
If broken, the short-term structure may weaken further.
What needs to be avoided now is chasing gains or selling off in the middle of the range.
My short position has been held for nearly a week, with an average price of 2562, currently floating at a loss of over 5,000U. Rather than adding more positions, it’s better to wait for the price to truly choose a direction before managing the position.
The most dangerous place in the market right now is not the lack of opportunity, but that volatility appears calm yet may suddenly amplify.
Over the weekend, focus on the two key levels: 2625 / 2700.
#ETH #BTC #Crypto #OKX #Trading📊 $BTC Inflows of 2.8 Billion Over 6 Days: ETF Has Recovered the First Half's Deficit
Over 6 trading days, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of about $2.8 billion.
The same group of products was still down $5.5 billion at the end of June.
This is not just a slogan; it's a fact confirmed by Farside and SoSoValue.
1. Where the money came from
From September 17 to 24, there were net subscriptions for 6 consecutive trading days.
On September 21, a single-day peak of $999 million was reached, marking the largest single-day inflow in 2026.
BlackRock's IBIT alone took in about $1.35 billion, nearly half of the total for these 6 days. Fidelity's FBTC followed closely.
2. How the ledger turned around
In the first half of this year, the spot ETF once had a net outflow exceeding $5 billion.
Near the mid-July low point, the cumulative loss for the year was still about $5.7 billion.
After pouring in $2.8 billion over these 6 days, the annual net inflow returned to a range of about $780 million to $880 million.
August saw an inflow of about $3.5 billion for the whole month, and by the time of writing in September, it has exceeded $2.5 billion. Institutions are not just shouting slogans; they are replenishing positions through compliant channels.
3. Price did not keep pace
On the day with the strongest inflow, BTC touched $87,000 intraday.
In the following 3 trading days, inflows dropped from $715 million and $347 million to $191 million, a decline of over 80%.
The coin price also fell from the high to around $83,000 to $84,000.
Continuous inflows remain, but the momentum has clearly slowed.
One pitfall to clarify:
Continuous net inflows over 6 days do not mean another $1 billion will come tomorrow.
ETF is an institutional allocation tool, not a perpetual motion machine. The drop from $999 million to $191 million in a single day shows the pulse buying is fading. Translating "continuous inflows" directly as "imminent new highs" is mistaking a weather vane for an accelerator.
When the fisherman looks at this kind of data, he only remembers three things:
How long the inflows last, whether the main force is still concentrated in IBIT, and whether the daily numbers are continuously shrinking.
The first two are still true this round; the third has changed.
$2.8 billion can cover the first half's deficit, indicating that money in compliant channels still recognizes BTC.
Recognition aside, positions should still be managed according to one's own risk tolerance, not leveraged based on news headlines.
In these 6 days, do you believe institutions are accumulating or is this the last wave before selling off?
#BTC #BitcoinSpotETF #IBIT #InstitutionalFunds #CryptoMarket
#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元
$BTC SNDK made a quick spike to 1787 today, and no one dared to follow the wave at 1814.
Yesterday's low was 1727, the high was 1814, and it closed at 1768. Today it opened near 1768, peaked at 1787 but didn't break through, the low was 1761, and the current price is about 1772. The volume ratio shrank again compared to yesterday, after the upward surge it is still fluctuating.
There is still resistance between 1787 and 1814 above; only above that is 1906. If it breaks below 1761, it’s likely to see 1727 first; if that level can't hold either, the short term may look for space down to 1618.
In the short term, watch if the current price around 1772 can hold. If it can't hold, treat it as a digestion phase coming down from 1906, and don't chase at this price. For those already holding, watch if the low of 1761 today can support; if not, consider reducing positions. For those looking to buy the dip, wait for a pullback and reconsider if it can't break through 1814; don't catch a falling knife in midair. $SNDK 🎙️ BTC ETF attracted nearly 3 billion in seven days, yet the price fell below 84,000 — this question isn't over
The most counterintuitive scene today:
The US BTC spot ETF has had net inflows for 7 consecutive days, totaling about 2.98 billion USD over the week; but BTC instead dropped back to 83,900, ETH is hovering around 2688, and the fear and greed index remains at 74 (greed).
Money is flowing in, but the price isn't rising. What does this mean?
It's not that there are no buyers, but long-term interest rates are too harsh: 10Y US Treasury at 5.18%, 30Y at 5.47%, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
ETF inflows represent institutional base positions, not retail chasing rallies.
On-chain and contracts are deleveraging, options skew turned defensive this week, smart money is buying protection.
Having created content for years, I fear this kind of "fundamentals look good, price looks weak" market the most.
Greed index 74 + US Treasury yields breaking 5% = not suitable for high leverage, better to do your homework.
The true value of KOLs is not to urge you to rush in, but to remind you:
A bull market doesn't mean rising every day, but that you survive until liquidity truly returns.
Personal opinion, not investment advice. DYOR, don't put your living expenses into contracts. You really hit the nail on the head with that soul-searching question — *what if $79K never comes back?*
Right now, 80% of the market is waiting for $79K, $75K, or even $66K. Peter Brandt even said he wants to get back in at $65K-$66K. But you're right, BTC went from $74,955.5 to $87,399 without giving a second chance.
*From the options market perspective, you're right about $90K, and there's data to back it up:*
1. *Today, $15.9 billion in options expire, with $85K as the biggest pain point* — for every 1% drop below, there's a $142 million buy wall, so $84,132 is being defended tightly. After expiration, the short sellers' suppression will be lifted.
2. *Above $90K is a vacuum zone + a short sellers' graveyard* — you previously said there was only $2B in liquidations between $87K-$90K, but on options, $90K has a $226 million sell wall plus a large amount of Calls. Prices tend to target areas with the least liquidity but the most stop losses. Going to $90K to trigger the stop losses of $90K Call sellers and shorts is easier than going down to trigger $5.2B below.
3. *$2.84 billion ETF inflows over 6 days have changed the game* — for the whole of July, it was still -$5.8 billion, now it's +$800 million. BlackRock IBIT is still buying $1.16 billion per week; $79K is their cost zone, and they won't let you get in easily at $79K. They are the ones who pulled it up from $79K. I am the mid-term intelligence guy.
This wave of $ETH intelligence shows fundamentals are "institution + regulation" both favorable, but there are undercurrents in the capital flow.
Positive aspects: ETFs have accumulated 3.1 billion in three months, with BlackRock leading; SEC clearly states that staked tokens are not securities, LST sees major easing. ARK and JPMorgan accelerate RWA tokenization, over half of stablecoins settle on ETH, plus consensus speed increased 4-8 times, the long-term base is very solid.
Challenges: There are significant concerns. $XRP has grabbed the second largest market cap, Hyperliquid's revenue has surpassed, on-chain stablecoins have zero growth in a year. More severe is Bitfinex shorts surged 80 times in two weeks, 2 billion options expiring combined with a single-day spot outflow of 250 million, short-term selling pressure is heavy.
Intelligence guy's perspective: The long-term ecosystem is unbeatable, but short-term is suppressed by macro and shorts. Mid-term recommendation is to hold the base position, add in batches after the pullback stabilizes, and avoid clashing hard with macro liquidity.
$BTC
#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 XAU today had a spike at 4296, then surged briefly, but no one dared to follow the wave at 4311.
Yesterday's low was 4256, the high was 4311, and it closed at 4288. Today it opened near 4288, peaked at 4296 without breaking through, bottomed at 4278, and the current price is about 4282. The volume ratio shrank again compared to yesterday; after the upward surge, it slid back down.
There is still resistance between 4296 and 4311, and only above that is 4369 to 4429. If 4278 breaks again on the downside, it’s likely to test 4256 first; if that level also fails to hold, the short term may look for space around 4248.
In the short term, watch if the current price around 4282 can hold. If it can’t hold, consider it as still digesting the drop from 4429 and don’t chase at this price. For those already holding, watch if the low at 4278 today can support; if not, consider reducing positions. For those looking to buy the dip, wait for a pullback and see if 4311 can be broken before considering, don’t catch a falling knife in mid-air. $XAU 🕶️ MARKET CHECK The market feels like a pond with barely any waves right now... But my $BTC position is still sitting at **~85x profit**, while $ETH is around **~18x** — and the gains are still secured in the account. 💰 The bigger trend hasn’t given a clear breakdown yet, so I’m letting the positions breathe instead of rushing for the exit. Meanwhile, $DOGE and $ONE shorts are becoming increasingly stressful. Margin is getting tighter, and every small altcoin bounce can squeeze shorts aggressiDogecoin in September turned a phrase into reality: ETFs will die, but coins won't.
On September 10, Bitwise announced the liquidation of its Dogecoin ETF (BWOW), a product that had been listed for less than ten months, with net assets remaining only $687,000 and continuous net outflows. Eleven days later, DOGE surged from $0.087 to above $0.10, rising about 14% in a single day, with trading volume expanding to $3.2 billion, roughly three times the usual.
This scenario is hard to imagine happening with Bitcoin. BTC's pricing power hangs on institutional channels, and ETF subscription and redemption data can rewrite the market; whereas all DOGE spot ETFs combined have only attracted about $10 million cumulatively, so whether they liquidate or not has no weight on the market. The spark on September 21 was not from Wall Street either—Platform X launched cashtag trading functionality, community sentiment warmed up, and spot ETFs saw net inflows of about $900,000 that day, not even a fraction.
$DOGE's value anchor is not in institutional hands. Its foundation consists of three things: a community built over twelve years, liquidity depth on mainstream exchanges, and Elon Musk as a fuse that can ignite at any time. Institutional channels are a bonus for it, not a lifeline. A coin that can self-sustain through community and liquidity, without relying on institutions, is not at risk but resilient.Another altcoin ETF is just one step away.
The NYSE Arca segment has approved Bitwise's NEAR spot ETF listing. This asset management company completed its share registration on September 24, leaving only the final step before the official launch. If successfully launched, it will be the first spot ETF linked to NEAR in the United States.
The ETF trend is replicating from Bitcoin and Ethereum to smaller market cap public chains. For capital, it means an additional compliant entry channel; for NEAR, the real test is whether the approval benefit can turn into sustained buying pressure. The approval is just a ticket; a ticket does not equal buying pressure, which depends on subscription data in the first few weeks after listing. $CL Post｜Understanding the US approach to dealing with Middle Eastern adversaries through a major Syrian criminal case, and also understanding the US-Iran game. The Los Angeles Federal Court sentenced Alsheikh from Syria to 60 years in prison. The most special aspect of this case is not the length of the sentence, but the way the arrest and trial were conducted. There was no Syrian extradition, no international special tribunal. This person stumbled simply because he lied on the US immigration naturalization form. The US prosecutor seized this immigration fraud to directly initiate the trial and impose a heavy sentence. This logic applies not only to Syria but also to individuals related to Iran. This is the US's long-arm jurisdiction: no need for war, no need for negotiation, as long as individuals related to the Iranian camp want to apply for US visas, green cards, or citizenship and conceal their past records, they will leave criminal liabilities. The biggest difficulty in US-Iran negotiations has never been a single event but structural contradictions. Nuclear issues, regional proxy confrontations, and huge differences in demands between the two sides. Besides economic sanctions, the US now adds personal judicial accountability as a card. Continuous targeted deterrence constantly raises the risks of overseas activities for individuals related to Iran, further compressing the space for mutual trust. This means: the probability of US-Iran talks failing remains high. The Middle East geopolitical risk premium will continue to exist, and as long as subsequent frictions escalate, oil prices have potential upward pressure. Individual cases will not immediately trigger conflict, but they clearly show that besides war and sanctions, the US also has the weapon of law for long-term strategic competition. #Trump reportedly rejects the 7-day plan, Hormuz reopening again 🏦 $BTC | FOLLOW THE FLOW
ETF demand is still positive — but the momentum is slowing.
$999M → $715M → $347M → $191M
Four straight sessions of declining inflows.
That doesn’t mean buyers are gone.
It means the next move needs fresh liquidity to keep expanding.
If flows accelerate again → 🔥
If they keep fading → ⚠️
Price gets the headline.
Flows reveal the fuel.
#BTC #Bitcoin #DailyOrbit #OKXOrbit Keep the noise coming — I’ve already held through $2,800. If you’re long, there’s no need to mock those who are short. Everyone has their own positioning. The market is still overheated, and at some point, it needs to cool down. My $ETH short from $2,640 remains open, with ETH now back around $2,680. The toughest part of the move has already passed for now. On the 1H chart, MA5, MA10 and MA20 are gradually converging near $2,690. ETH keeps testing $2,700, but hasn’t been able to establish a cleaCrypto assets stolen? Which exchange is the safest?
The most common reason revealed in public post-mortems is the compromise of hot wallet private keys or signing permissions. Coincheck lost about $530 million in 2018, KuCoin about $280 million in 2020, and Bitmart about $150 million in 2021, all pointing to the compromise of online hot wallet keys.
Another category involves bypassing multisig and signing interfaces: Bitfinex in 2016 was related to the multisig scheme at the time; WazirX in 2024 experienced multisig control being altered; Bybit was hacked in February 2025, among others. Additionally, there are breaches in supply chain and operations, such as compromised signer devices, wallet service providers, or internal permissions being exploited.a16z: 86% of RWA perpetual contract volume has been completed on-chain. The latest data from a16z gives an interesting signal for RWA: in August, the trading volume of RWA perpetual contracts reached $117.3 billion, a 44-fold year-on-year increase, of which 86% has already moved on-chain, about $101 billion; open interest also reached $4.8 billion.
Personally, I think the truly important part of this news is not the $117.3 billion, but the "86% on-chain".
This means RWA is moving from simple asset tokenization to real on-chain trading. Previously, discussions about RWA focused more on tokenizing government bonds, gold, and stocks; now the market is beginning to directly trade on-chain derivatives of these assets.
The transmission logic is: traditional assets tokenized on-chain → perpetual contracts emerge → trading demand grows → liquidity migrates on-chain → demand for on-chain derivatives infrastructure increases → DEXs, public chains, oracles, and stablecoins gain incremental growth.
More notably, early RWA perpetual contracts were mainly concentrated on CEXs, but by August this year, on-chain platforms accounted for 86% of the trading volume. a16z believes this shift corresponds clearly in timing with infrastructure upgrades like Hyperliquid's HIP-3.
My personal judgment is that the real second phase of RWA may not be "more assets tokenized on-chain," but "assets being traded, staked, and composited after being tokenized." This is the key step for RWA to move from asset digitization to financial infrastructure.
In trading, I will focus on: RWA trading volume → on-chain ratio → open interest → DEX flow