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Anthropic continues to ramp up computing power procurement; before the IPO, the story to watch is not revenue, but cost.
AI companies are best at telling growth stories: stronger models, more customers, bigger scenarios. But the truly scary numbers lie elsewhere—training costs money, inference costs money, chip leasing and cloud contracts also cost money. The closer to going public, the more the market will ask a very practical question: are these revenues largely eaten up by computing power costs?
I think if Anthropic's prospectus is made public, its most valuable aspect won't be the valuation, but whether it can let outsiders clearly see its unit economics model.
AI companies are not lacking faith now; what they lack is a profit roadmap that reassures people. Without this roadmap, no matter how impressive the growth curve is, it will make people uneasy.
#Anthropic算力采购加码，IPO成本受关注 🚨 $CORE Collapse Countdown: Is the Hard Fork the Final Straw?
Core DAO’s emergency hard fork, triggered by validator reward issues, looks less like an upgrade and more like a patch for deeper consensus problems.
The bigger concern: excess $CORE won’t be burned, leaving the added supply in circulation.
No strong buying pressure, limited liquidity, and exchange suspensions could make the next supply release painful#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue 1. Tonight's initial claims are just a warm-up with limited volatility, no need to heavily speculate; the real high volatility window is tomorrow night at 20:30 with the non-farm payrolls.
2. When the data is released, watch the sequence of three items: average hourly earnings → new jobs added + previous value revisions → unemployment rate. Don't just focus on the headline new numbers.
3. In the first 15-30 minutes after release, there is a high probability of two-way spikes and explosive bilateral leverage; many algorithmic fake moves, so don't chase the first wave, wait for secondary confirmation.
4. The current range itself is oscillating between 76k-80k; the non-farm payrolls are more likely to amplify the range volatility rather than directly trigger a one-sided big trend; the real trend-changing expectations depend on the subsequent CPI.
Therefore, for short-term operations from now until tomorrow night, a prudent approach is to stay out and observe. If you must trade, you can short near 79,000 and go long near 76,000, always with light positions, strictly set stop losses, and manage risk well! #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $BTC $ETH Take it, first see when 75600 arrives.
The stop loss is near 79600, and there is an opportunity to add positions near 79000.
Around 75500, you can consider a short-term long, but ideally, the 71800 Fibonacci retracement level is still the best pattern choice.
Oil price is 90+, long-term interest rates remain high, employment is cooling down, but inflation as the highest priority will still suppress risk assets.
Currently, only $BTC short positions and one $SKHYNIX long position.
The trend logic of crypto and storage is not quite the same; while liquidity is sensitive, the positive earnings outlook for storage remains unchanged.
Recently, not paying attention to SanDisk.
Focus on DRAM, the logic is actually stronger. Wait a bit longer for NAND.
The tactical position can be exited first, waiting quietly for the non-farm payroll.
#FOMC last set of data before Friday's non-farm payroll Net outflow has finally stopped!
113 days, watching stablecoins flow out every day
People are numb to it
On September 1st, the reading turned positive
Over ten million USD
Sounds like a lot
But it was cut in half the next day
This is not inflow
This is just the outflow stopping
SSR has fallen from the high point
Purchasing power has recovered a bit
But still far from normal
I don't believe this is the start of a rise
At most, it means no more bleeding
The real money hasn't come back yet
Wait until it turns positive for several consecutive weeks
If you rush in now
You're just feeding the market makers again
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 $BTC Why did both of these assets first form two consistent horizontal high points, then on the third attempt, useless directly broke through, and the daily chart has risen 110% so far, while mubark just touched the high point and dropped immediately? 1. For useless, at the high point, there is a four-timeframe resonance across 15-minute, 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily charts. The daily close is a bullish candle at this level, and at the corresponding time, the 4-hour, 1-hour, and 15-minute charts also closed bullish at this resistance line. For mubarak, only the 10:00 1-hour and 15-minute charts resonate with bullish closes at the resistance point. There is no 4-hour or daily resonance. 2. Structure. Useless formed a horizontal consolidation structure very close to the resistance area. Mubarak did not form a horizontal consolidation, only a gradual bearish rise pattern. However, it is important to note that mubarak's failure to break through this time does not mean it is doomed. We need to see if it will continue horizontal consolidation and then break upward. That upward breakout would also be a very good entry point. Another characteristic is that during useless's horizontal consolidation, it formed a W pattern where the right bottom is higher than the left bottom.Core Insights Summary of the Bull Market
80% of the bull market phase is a struggle; truly easy profits are rare.
April 2025 was the darkest moment for Ethereum. While Bitcoin only dropped 30%, Ethereum plummeted 60% to complete its bottoming. In early May, Ethereum rebounded with three consecutive large bullish candles to 2800 points, then entered a two-month sideways phase. However, the market generally regarded this as a normal rebound, with no one optimistic about a trend reversal.
At the end of the consolidation, Ethereum briefly faked a breakdown to 2100 points, pushing market pessimism to the max. Most believed the bear market was returning. Yet the price immediately reversed against the trend, rising to 3900 points, with market divergence still huge. Throughout this rally, caution prevailed; bears continuously opened short positions against the trend, never stopping even after repeated liquidations. In early August, Ethereum corrected to 3400 points, and combined with past experience of topping at 4000 points, many investors panicked and exited.
Now Bitcoin has risen from 60,000 to 80,000 but is stuck in a frustrating consolidation. Market sentiment is scattered: some await a deep correction, some hold firm to buy the dip, others watch for the cycle bottom. Even small price fluctuations trigger collective panic, which is the norm in a bull market.
Bull markets are always accompanied by divergence and noise, with bulls and bears battling, news causing volatile ups and downs, and sudden positive or negative events quickly losing impact. Yet these constantly disrupt investors’ judgment, causing frequent swing trades and premature exits.
Bull market launches never follow logic. In October 2023, the macro environment was extremely poor and did not meet bull market conditions, yet the rally quietly began. Therefore, during the mid-stage of a bull market, frequent trading is unnecessary; the best strategy is to settle in, stay low-profile, and control your impulses Brothers! Let's talk about this Friday's non-farm payrolls. Before the Fed's next meeting (FOMC), this is the last hardcore data release, so the whole market is watching it even more closely than usual. Non-farm payrolls are basically a health check report on the U.S. employment market, released on the first Friday evening of every month (at 8:30 or 9:30 PM Beijing time, depending on daylight saving). It mainly looks at three numbers: new non-farm employment, unemployment rate, and average hourly wage growth. Once these three numbers come out, the market immediately goes into a frenzy.
Why is this non-farm payrolls so critical? Because the Fed right now is like a hesitant driver, foot hovering between the brake and the gas pedal, unsure which to press. Inflation data has been sticky lately—not falling but not surging either; if employment data remains strong, the Fed has no reason to rush rate cuts and might even turn more hawkish; if employment suddenly cools off, rate cut expectations heat up, and the market can rally. So this non-farm payrolls release is the last puzzle piece for the Fed to decide which way to steer.
So how will the market react after Friday's non-farm payrolls? Let's break it down into three scenarios.
First, if the data greatly exceeds expectations, for example, new jobs exceed 200,000, unemployment rate drops, and wages rise sharply. Then it's over: the dollar index will definitely surge, U.S. Treasury yields will jump, gold will take a hit first, U.S. stocks might open lower because "good economy = Fed not rushing to ease = higher rates stay longer." In the crypto space, $BTC will most likely pull back along with risk assets, altcoins will suffer even more because liquidity... I'm dumbfounded!
I'm dumbfounded!
I'm dumbfounded, brothers!
One long position and one short position, both sides are losing.
The long at 2415 is floating with nearly a 50-point loss, and the short at 2350 hasn't made much profit either.
Honestly, I don't even know how I got into this situation. Looking at the account, I want to laugh at myself.
Long on the left hand, short on the right, getting hit from both sides, like a fool being rubbed back and forth around the 2400 level.
But I haven't closed out.
It's not that I don't want to exit, I just feel something's off.
Think about it, bad news keeps coming one after another: Fed hawkish speeches, US-Iran conflicts, whales dumping, institutions clearing altcoins—weren't these all previously enough to crash the market?
But $ETH only dropped to 2356 at the lowest, never even touched 2350, then bounced back near 2400.
Why can't it be pushed down?
I stared at the market all day thinking.
Either big money is accumulating below, or the shorts no longer dare to push it down further.
A position that even $400 million can't move—if they try a fourth time, can they still push it down?
Moreover, the data: if ETH falls below 2294, long liquidations are only 627 million.
But if ETH breaks 2531, short liquidations reach 1.277 billion, double the amount.
Once shorts get squeezed, the stampede will be much fiercer than expected.
Bad news can't push it down, yet shorts keep piling up.
So even though both sides are losing, I don't plan to move.
The direction hasn't changed, the logic hasn't changed, all that's left is to wait.
Tonight's non-farm payrolls are the final test. Once the bad news is exhausted, only upward movement remains.
$BTC
$DOGE
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 ETH's streak of 12 consecutive days of ETF inflows has ended, and XRP's 11-day continuous inflow also stopped on the same day. More unusually, BTC ETF turned to net inflows on that day.
On September 2, the US spot ETH ETF had a net outflow of about $48.08 million, ending a 12-day streak of cumulative inflows totaling approximately $1.62 billion. The XRP ETF also saw a net outflow of about $7.2 million on the same day, ending 11 consecutive trading days of inflows.
However, the BTC ETF had a net inflow of about $101.2 million, exactly reversing the previous day's net outflow of $236.5 million. This looks like funds moving from altcoin ETFs back to BTC, but one day's data is not enough to confirm rotation.
Not all funds within the same asset class are withdrawing. BlackRock's ETHA had a net outflow of about $53.4 million, while its staked ETH ETF ETHB had a net inflow of about $53 million. The "ETH fund outflow" in the headline masks portfolio rebalancing between products.
What to watch next is not just the red or green of a single day, but whether the second and third trading days continue to show the combination of BTC inflows and ETH and XRP outflows. If it quickly reverses, it's just rebalancing; if it continues, it more likely indicates institutional preference is contracting.
Open $BTC and $ETH to check real-time trading volume. Do you think this is just a single-day rebalancing, or that institutional funds are starting to shift back toward BTC? Wall Street delivered a lesson this week that every AI investor should sit with: being part of the AI trade isn't enough anymore. The market wants proof that growth is speeding up, not just showing up. $AVGO: A Monster Quarter That Still Wasn't Monster Enough Broadcom's numbers were, by almost any measure, extraordinary. Total revenue jumped 86% year-over-year to $29.6 billion, topping Wall Street's forecast. AI semiconductor sales more than tripled, up 221% to $16.7 billion. Adjusted earnings oBrothers, looking again at the US stock market pre-market tonight, this market is actually quite conflicted 😂
Currently, US stock futures are generally stable, Nasdaq futures are slightly up, mainly because tech stocks have recovered in the past couple of days, with Nvidia once again becoming the emotional engine of the AI sector. Recently, market confidence in Nvidia's AI customer expansion and AI computing power demand is returning, so the AI theme hasn't deteriorated for now.
But here I have to pour cold water: although Broadcom's earnings report was good, its guidance did not fully meet the market's expectation that "AI must continue to explode," and its pre-market stock price was under pressure. This shows that the AI sector is no longer "just talk AI and it rises," but is starting to truly test orders, capital expenditures, and future guidance.
So tonight, I won't be too pessimistic, but I also won't blindly chase highs. If Nvidia, AI, and semiconductors continue to be strong, Nasdaq has a chance to continue its recovery; but once tech stocks surge and then fall back, risk assets like $BTC and $ETH are also likely to be dragged down.
The most critical is tomorrow's US August nonfarm payrolls; the market is now waiting for this big test. Recent employment data has clearly been weak, and the Fed's September rate hike expectations have been pushed back up to about 60%.
So my judgment tonight is simple: US stocks are biased bullish on AI recovery, but don't get carried away; BTC/ETH continue to look for consolidation, and the real big direction awaits the nonfarm payrolls for an answer. In this market, no one should pretend they can predict precisely, even the big players might not know where the next candlestick will go 😂 $SNDK $NVDA #Last data before FOMC: this Friday's nonfarm payrolls. $BTC has pulled back, but has the capital really exited?
BTC has fallen back to around $77,000, with market sentiment clearly cooling down. The fear and greed index has dropped to 58, still in the greed zone. But one detail is worth noting: while BTC ETFs have recently seen net outflows, ETH ETFs have maintained inflows for several consecutive days, with BlackRock's ETHA net inflow exceeding $71 million last week.
This looks more like a rotation of funds rather than a full retreat.
Previously, $BTC pushed from around $70,000 to above $80,000, so profit-taking is normal. What’s truly worth watching is whether BTC outflows continue and whether ETH can keep absorbing this liquidity. If funds remain in the crypto market but just switch the main focus, then the market is likely just taking a mid-game break rather than ending.
Data shows Ethereum's inflation rate dropped to 0.45% in July, with network activity remaining active. Once ETH effectively holds above the 2400 level, it could be a technical signal attracting capital rotation.
Is this a sign of reduced risk or the start of a main trend switch? The answer might lie in the capital flow after the non-farm payroll release. Stay closely tuned and remain flexible.
#BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 Friday 20:30, the real big shock is coming: BTC at 77,000, waiting for the non-farm payroll to decide life or death
The most critical employment report before the FOMC is about to be revealed, and the current contradiction is very extreme:
Employment is cooling down, but inflation refuses to drop.
August ADP added only 38,000 jobs, below the expected 48,000, showing a clear slowdown in hiring; but July core PCE remains as high as 3.3%, and Walsh further pointed out that 54% of the items in the PCE basket have year-on-year increases exceeding 3%, indicating price pressures are far from relieved.
Therefore, the market still assigns about a 60%—63% probability of a rate hike in September.
On Friday, there are three scenarios to watch:
**Non-farm payroll significantly stronger than 58,000:** Hawkish logic strengthens, BTC defends 75,000 or even 72,000;
**Close to expectations:** Rate hike uncertainty continues, 76,000—80,000 range sees repeated tug-of-war;
**Significantly below expectations and wage cooling:** Rate hike bets may quickly fade, giving BTC a chance to challenge 80,000 again.
What truly determines the market is not whether the non-farm payroll is good or bad, but whether it can overturn the rate hike scenario the market has already priced in. $BTC #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 In one sentence: Today is TRIA's scheduled unlock day (releasing about 90.17 million tokens, accounting for 0.9% of total supply and about 4% of circulation) — so what happened? The price hovered above 0.0036 all day, currently at 0.00374, but daily trading volume shrank by about 73% compared to yesterday. The expected bearish pressure arrived, yet the market "couldn't be pushed down": the $0.00357-0.00362 range has been tested three times without breaking (on 9/1, 9/2, and 9/3), and the bears failed to push new lows on the unlock day. But don't rush to call the bottom — the rebound is equally weak. TRIA seems to have fallen into a liquidity no-man's land where no one is dumping or buying aggressively. Today's review: The "calm" on unlock day is news itself. Let's break down the past three days (OKX perpetual daily chart): • 9/1: Inertial decline of -4%, intraday touched $0.003618, setting a historical low at the time; • 9/2: Continued grinding, lowest at **0.003571** (a new record low), closed at 0.003715, down 4.2%; • 9/3 (today, unlock day): low of 0.00361 again unbroken, high touched 0.00386 but was pushed back, currently at $0.00374 — basically treading water. Three details worth noting: 1. **Three tests of the 0.0036 area, bears failed each time**: 9/1 touched 0.003618, 9/2 had a wick down to 0.003571 (intraday record low) but closedEarlier, people were shouting that the US was finally going to set rules for the crypto market. Now, the prediction market has poured a bucket of cold water on that. The probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law by 2026 has dropped to about 15% $BTC $ETH. So what exactly is this act? Simply put, it's the market structure bill that the US crypto community has been hoping for a long time. The core is to clearly define the responsibilities between the SEC and the CFTC— which coins fall under SEC jurisdiction and which digital assets fall under CFTC jurisdiction—providing exchanges and DeFi with a set of federal-level rules of the game. The House of Representatives passed it early on, but it got stuck in the Senate. Why the sharp drop in probability? Because the Senate needs 60 votes, and the Republicans don't have enough votes; they need some Democrats to defect. Both sides are stuck on several deadlocks: whether public officials can trade crypto, stablecoin reward clauses, banking interests conflicts—these issues can't be resolved. Congress has very little working time left, and the voting window is especially narrow. Isn't this just a joke? Not long ago, everyone thought it was done. Now you hit the brakes, like going to the civil affairs bureau to get a marriage certificate—rings bought, banquet booked, social media posts done—and the staff says, "Don't rush, we still need internal discussions." The market had already priced in clear regulatory expectations. If it keeps dragging on or fails outright this year, projects that rely on regulatory implementation to tell their story will probably have to recalculate. The 15% is the probability from the prediction market, not a total death sentence—just that the hope for implementation by 2026 is slim. The act can be amended and brought back for debate by the new Congress next year. #FOMC last batch beforeHistorically, BTC averages -3% in September, known as Rektember.
This year's script is more complete:
August first rallies 25% to give hope,
September then takes that hope away with geopolitical issues + treasury sell-offs + small ETF outflows.
Currently stuck at 76.3k–77.8k, as if waiting for the nonfarm payrolls and FOMC to deliver their verdict together.#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
Dell's big bullish candle hasn't even been digested yet, and Broadcom and Snowflake have already reported.
These two earnings reports point in the same direction—AI demand is spreading downstream from the hardware layer. Dell sells servers, Broadcom sells network chips, Snowflake sells data cloud. From computing power to data, the entire chain is growing.
The impact on the crypto space is twofold. The narrative is spreading; AI demand extending to servers and data cloud is an indirect positive for AI tracks and DePIN projects in crypto. Risk appetite is stabilizing, the profitability quality of tech stocks is being continuously validated, and crypto, as a high-beta asset, will not lack its own narrative space as long as the macro environment doesn't collapse.
Here’s my view. Broadcom's guidance missing expectations and being hit indicates the market's pricing of AI has moved from "whether there is demand" to "whether the realization speed is fast enough." Snowflake's 21% rise shows AI revenue on the software side is accelerating. For projects with real business support, the direction is clearer.
What do you think?
$BTC $ETH High oil prices, high interest rates. The Fed's stance remains focused on the 2% inflation target. The pricing of risk assets should face sustained pressure. However, it seems Americans have now gotten used to the high yields on U.S. Treasuries. It's unclear when the market will refocus its attention on U.S. Treasury yields. $BTC Yesterday, the third-ranking official of the Federal Reserve and President of the New York Fed, Williams, unexpectedly appeared in an exclusive CNBC interview, cooling down the U.S. Treasury market a bit. His core message conveyed several points: recent inflation data shows encouraging signs of decline, overall still in a slow downward trend; the current interest rate level is in a "good position," balancing employment and prices; as for whether to raise rates in September, it depends on upcoming data, and no conclusion has been made yet. Why was this unexpected? Because normally, official speeches by Federal Reserve officials are posted 3-7 days in advance on the respective Fed's official website schedule, with clear details on time, place, and topic, as prearranged official duties that ordinary retail investors can check ahead of time. But tonight's event was a live TV interview, not part of the official speech series. Such interviews are usually scheduled only 1-3 days in advance and only briefly announced on professional paid financial terminals, not appearing on the Fed's public calendar. Retail investors who usually check free financial schedules generally cannot find it, so it feels like a "sudden, last-minute speech." Williams' remarks this time were clearly aimed at the U.S. Treasury market because the New York Fed he oversees is responsible for Treasury market operations and is the FOMC official most focused on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries. After his speech, the 10-year Treasury yield fell from 4.83% to 4.76% at one point. However, Williams' remarks were typical hedging language, neither promising interest rate commitments nor ruling out rate hikes if inflation does not follow expectations. Such speeches are generally used to moderate extreme market moves.Everyone is waiting for 8:30 PM tomorrow night, but I always feel that the real focus of this non-farm payroll report isn't just the headline number.
In the past, everyone rushed to look at the new jobs added, but now I just want to wait for the data to come out and pay attention to the often overlooked "revisions" section. The last time already revealed a lot: July's new jobs were directly revised down to negative, and May and June combined were cut by more than 100,000. In other words, the initial numbers from the statistics bureau were just guesses, and they quietly revised them later. This kind of after-the-fact adjustment is much more honest than the cold initial figures on the day.
So even if the new jobs number looks pretty good tomorrow night, don't get too excited too quickly. If the previous two months get revised down again, it means the US labor market isn't as strong as the initial data suggests. Jumping in just by looking at the headline can easily lead to getting the direction wrong.
For BTC, this matter isn't that simple either. If employment cools down, the rate hike pressure can ease, which should be good for risk assets. But if it cools too much and the market starts worrying about a recession, highly volatile assets like Bitcoin are often the first to be sold off. Whether it's bullish or bearish really depends on which story the market chooses to tell at that moment.
I will also take a look at wage growth. Only if wage increases cool down along with employment does it indicate that inflation is truly retreating; otherwise, just looking at employment numbers doesn't tell the whole story.
And don't forget, this is just the last non-farm payroll report before the rate decision, with CPI still waiting in line. Even if the direction tomorrow night is right, don't rush to go all in and lie flat; there are still many uncertainties ahead. $BTC #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 The start of September has somewhat diluted the good mood from August. At the beginning of the month, geopolitical tensions suddenly escalated, pushing oil prices above $90, U.S. Treasury yields rose to 4.81%, and Bitcoin subsequently retreated from its highs, briefly falling below $77,000. Historical statistics from CoinGlass show that September typically sees an average decline of about 3%, with only five positive closes, leading the community to nickname it "Rektember." With macro pressures combined with seasonal weakness, market sentiment naturally leans toward caution. 📉 However, looking closely at the structure, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. The $73,000 to $75,000 range is widely regarded as a strong support zone. As long as spot ETF funds do not experience sustained large outflows, after some consolidation, there is still hope to advance toward the $92,000 to $100,000 range. The real key point is the interest rate meeting on September 15, where the current probability of a rate hike is about 66%. This outcome will directly determine the direction of liquidity logic. If rates remain unchanged, the long-suppressed buying pressure may quickly rebound. Sector differentiation is also worth noting. SOL rose more than 40% in August, with a deflation proposal passed and an upgrade imminent. If it can hold the $98 to $100 range, the next target may be $117. HYPE has performed even stronger, rising 4% against the trend during Bitcoin's pullback, with a cumulative gain of 230% year-to-date. After being included in the Nasdaq index, whale accounts continue to buy, and its buyback and burn mechanism provides some price support. ETH is awaiting a bill vote, with valuation still relatively low. ✨ The market always breeds reversals amid extreme emotions, so remain patient The world's largest gold ETF increased its holdings by nearly 10 tons in one go yesterday, bringing its position back above 1,056 tons. A single-day inflow of 9.984 tons—the last time we saw such a large volume was during the July surge of gold $XAU to 4600. Behind this is the weaker-than-expected August ADP employment data, which slightly eased rate hike expectations, allowing gold to rebound. The Dutch central bank also made moves. From March to August this year, they moved 86 tons of gold froIran has started directly attacking the US military base in Kuwait,
Has the conflict crossed another line?
Iran recently claimed that missiles and drones have targeted
the Ali Al Salem US Air Force base in Kuwait.
Kuwait's air defense system activated interceptions for the second consecutive night, and a US-related residential area was also hit by a drone and caught fire.
Here it is important to distinguish: Iran claims to have hit the base and caused US military losses, but the US's preliminary assessment so far is that there are no casualties, and the exact damage to the base has not yet been fully confirmed.
What the market should really be wary of is the scope of the attacks.
Previously, the main conflict was the US striking Iran and Iran threatening the Strait of Hormuz; now Iran is expanding its retaliation to countries hosting US troops such as Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, and Iraq.
This means the risk is spreading from a "war on Iranian soil" to the entire Gulf military base network.
However, crude oil prices slightly retreated today, with Brent around $95.2 and WTI around $90.8.
The reason is simple: while the market is pricing in regional war risk premiums, it has also seen no confirmed new large-scale US-Iran clashes in the past few hours, and Trump has said the new round of actions will not last long.
So there are now two completely different scenarios:
If Iran continues to attack US military bases, even affecting refineries, ports, and energy export facilities, the risk of oil prices breaking $100 will significantly increase, and inflation and Federal Reserve pressure will continue to transmit to BTC.
#OKX预言家：欧洲豪门交锋，F1意大利站预测进行中 The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note intraday reached a high of 4.814%, marking a new peak since November 2023. The market is repricing the prolonged cycle of high interest rates and the long-term fiscal risks of the United States.
There are three main drivers behind the recent rise in long-term rates: first, Middle East tensions have disturbed oil prices, increasing the risk of inflation rebound and limiting the Federal Reserve's room for future rate cuts; second, the US fiscal deficit remains high with ample long-term debt supply, prompting the market to demand a higher term risk premium; third, economic divergence with weakness supports easing, but high inflation and high debt constrain easing space, causing long-term rates to rise first.
The impact on capital markets is clear: US Treasury yields are the global core valuation anchor, and rising rates directly increase funding costs. In the US stock market, high-valuation growth stocks such as AI chips, cloud computing, and software are under significant pressure, with future earnings discounted more heavily, increasing valuation compression.
Gold's trend shows a complex divergence: traditionally, rising rates suppress gold prices, but the current market focuses more on US Treasury debt risk and geopolitical safe-haven attributes, offsetting the negative impact of rates. Therefore, gold prices remain relatively resilient and have not weakened.
Overall, the world has entered a phase of repricing high interest rates, and valuation pressure on risk assets persists. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 The interesting part isn’t the bounce. It’s what each coin is fighting underneath it. $ACE /USDT is the highest-risk setup. ACE has an unlock scheduled for September 3, while another larger monthly release is scheduled for September 18. That makes chasing a spike dangerous. At $0.18456, I’d watch $0.185–$0.19 first. Reclaim and hold → momentum can continue. Lose $0.175 → I’d step aside. $XRP /USDT looks different. XRP ETF demand has stayed surprisingly strong, with 11 consecutive sessions of inMacro Background: Dual Impact of US-Iran Conflict + Interest Rate Hike Expectations
US-Iran conflict continues to escalate — the greatest geopolitical risk
After the US military expanded strikes against Iran on September 1, BTC quickly dropped from above $79,000 to $77,200, a decline of up to 2.1%. Direct clashes between the US and Iran resumed, pushing Brent crude oil above $90.50, while the 10-year US Treasury yield surged above 4.8%.
Interest rate hike expectations loom — the biggest macroeconomic headwind
Following the Jackson Hole speech, the probability of a rate hike in September surged from 35% to nearly 60%-65%. Traders generally believe that a slowdown in employment is insufficient to change the main expectation of a September rate hike; if employment performs better than expected, a September hike will be almost certain.
Friday's nonfarm payroll data — the biggest variable this week
ADP employment data weakened, but inflation remains the Federal Reserve's primary concern. Even if nonfarm payrolls weaken, a rate hike cannot be completely ruled out. Polymarket contracts still reflect a considerable probability of a September rate hike. The downside risk protection range is between $68,000 and $75,000. $BTC $ETH $SOL #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 BTC holding near $77,837 while ETH and SOL lag its daily gain suggests this is still a selective risk bid, not a broad crypto breakout. I would treat the move as cautious positioning into the last NFP before the FOMC, with macro sensitivity still in control.
Gold ETF inflows and weak crude add to the defensive backdrop. Until participation widens beyond BTC, durability matters more than headline momentum, and stronger #LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue TRON recently had some impressive data.
In one month, on-chain USDT directly increased by about $4 billion, bringing the total to $94.27 billion, even surpassing Ethereum.
But interestingly, TRON’s growth isn’t necessarily because its “ecosystem is more prosperous.”
Many people use TRON not to play DeFi.
They just transfer USDT, for cross-border remittances, fund settlements, exchange deposits and withdrawals—simple, cheap, and sufficient.
This actually gives us a very interesting perspective:
The true value of a public chain isn’t necessarily reflected by how many people hype its narrative,
but by how much money is willing to flow through it every day.
ETH is more like a financial application layer.
TRON is increasingly like a highway for stablecoins.
Who can keep the money isn’t important.
Who can keep the money flowing continuously might be more important.
$TRX $USDT $ETH BTC holding near $77,837 while ETH and SOL lag its daily gain suggests this is still a selective risk bid, not a broad crypto breakout. I would treat the move as cautious positioning into the last NFP before the FOMC, with macro sensitivity still in control.
Gold ETF inflows and weak crude add to the defensive backdrop. Until participation widens beyond BTC, durability matters more than headline momentum, and stronger balance sheets should command the premium.
Just my read, not advice.Nonfarm Preview: The Last Trump Card Before the FOMC
Tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls report is the last trump card before the September FOMC.
Currently, the market's expectation for a September rate hike hovers around 60%—ADP data beating expectations pushes it up, initial jobless claims rising pulls it down, data conflicts leave the market numb. US stocks are consolidating at high levels; tech stocks neither rise nor fall sharply; BTC has been stuck between 77,000 and 79,000 for a week, ETH can't even hold above 2,400, all existing funds are just waiting for news.
Taking sides early is just giving up your head. It's very normal for nonfarm expectations and actuals to differ by hundreds of thousands. The Fed is purely data-driven; if the data is strong, they are hawkish; if the data is weak, they turn dovish. Chasing news back and forth only leads to getting hit.
Two possible outcomes:
Strong data: A rate hike is nailed down, the Nasdaq drops at least 1%, BTC directly seeks support below 75,000, and small altcoins generally start with gains of 5-6%.
Weak data: The market plays dovish, the Nasdaq rallies, BTC bounces back near 80,000. But don't expect a direct bull run; the FOMC is still ahead.
Wait for the landing before making moves; don't bet on direction.Summary conclusion: Hardware is "exploding this quarter, slightly soft next quarter, and even crazier in the long term"; software is "accelerating growth again, directly raising the full-year forecast."
Broadcom: Revenue 29.59 billion (+86%), adjusted EPS 3.32, both beating expectations.
But the earnings call extended the story: AI revenue this fiscal year reached 58 billion, and they expect to double and double again over the next two years. The market is no longer debating "whether AI exists," but rather "whether the slope this quarter is sufficient, and how supply and customer concentration will affect pricing."
Snowflake: Revenue 1.55 billion versus expected 1.48 billion; product revenue 1.49 billion, EPS 0.62 versus 0.45. Full-year product revenue raised from 5.84 billion to 6.07 billion, and profit margin guidance also upgraded.
AI products contribute roughly half of the acceleration, with shares surging directly after hours. This is a rare case on the software side where "growth and profit margin are both delivered."
The implication for trading is straightforward: AI capital expenditure narrative remains intact, but pricing has shifted from "whether it exists" to "how many points difference there are."
Broadcom is watched for how short-term guidance and long-term targets are traded separately; Snowflake is watched to see if consumption can sustain the 36% full-year growth. Don't read the two earnings reports as the same story.
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 The yen exchange rate has once again returned to 160
It has only been a month since the joint US-Japan market rescue at the end of July, which involved dumping 154 trillion yen, and not only was the money wasted, but the US-Japan joint intervention was also proven ineffective. Neither Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo nor US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has any solution now. The most expensive joint market rescue in history ultimately ended in failure because they simply did not apply the right remedy.
This US-Japan joint market rescue was actually aimed at suppressing carry trades, and the core of carry trades is the US-Japan interest rate differential. Recently, the new Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, at the Jackson Hole conference, directly pushed the market's rate hike expectations higher and higher, widening the US-Japan interest rate gap and increasing carry trades. The only two ultimate solutions are: US rate cuts or Japan rate hikes.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has recently seen through this logic and simply refuses to intervene in the market rescue, instead directly pressuring Japan to raise rates. In a recent interview, Yellen said she believes Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo will do the right thing. She said she has known Ueda for 15 years and that he is an outstanding economist, and the market probably underestimates his sensitivity. No matter how much you praise Ueda, behind this is a subtle push for him to raise rates quickly. The market now prices a 90% probability of a BOJ rate hike in September.
So if the problem is so easy to solve, why is Japan dragging its feet on raising rates? Actually, you are really misunderstanding the Bank of Japan; they have already raised rates twice this year. For the BOJ, every rate hike comes with a heavy cost, which has three layers:
The most obvious is Japan's debt pressure. Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio is 240%, the highest among developed countries worldwide. Even a 0.25% (25 basis points) increase in interest rates means the Japanese government must pay an additional 3 trillion yen in interest annually, nearly 3% of fiscal revenue, which is unbearable. This is also the main reason why Kono Sanae keeps pressuring the BOJ not to raise rates.
Second, rate hikes increase economic pressure. Everyone knows global central banks raise rates to suppress inflation, but Japan's inflation has never been demand-driven; it is supply-driven due to high import prices. Because the Strait of Hormuz conflict has been ongoing for years, global oil prices remain high, causing domestic energy prices in Japan, which imports 90% of its energy, to soar. High import prices cannot be suppressed by rate hikes; instead, rate hikes accelerate economic contraction. In other words, the economy is blocked at both ends, and Japan's economy may be suffocated by continuous rate hikes.
The third point is the valuation hit to the Japanese stock market. The Japanese stock market has recently enjoyed a two-year bull run, mainly thanks to the ultra-low interest rate environment that created favorable conditions for corporate valuations. But once the rate hike channel opens, rising Japanese bond yields will narrow the gap between stock and bond yields, reducing the stock market's attractiveness and causing capital to slowly withdraw from Japanese stocks.
Does the US, Japan's big brother, know about these difficulties? Of course, it does. Treasury Secretary Yellen on the other side has long been aware. But the US simply does not want to consider these difficulties for Ueda Kazuo. The US demand is only one thing—to protect the US Treasury market. Yellen's rare agreement to jointly intervene in the forex market with Japan was because Japan sold US Treasuries twice in April and July, buying back yen to rescue the exchange rate market. As the largest single buyer of US Treasuries, Japan's selling would cause turmoil in the US Treasury market. The current 10-year US Treasury yield has reached a high of 4.77%, the highest since the rate cut cycle began. If Japan is left unchecked and continues to dump US Treasuries, the 10-year yield could break 5%, and the 30-year yield could break 7%, which the US government cannot tolerate. Essentially, Japan is shifting its debt pressure onto the US, so Yellen is determined to force the BOJ to raise rates at all costs.
At the just-concluded G20 global central bank meeting, Yellen told reporters she knows some BOJ ongoing developments that the market is unaware of, and the BOJ will take action soon—meaning a rate hike.
Actually, there is no need to worry about a BOJ rate hike in September because the market has already priced it in. Look at the two BOJ rate hikes this year; after each hike, the yen did not rise but fell. I believe September will likely be the same. Then Yellen will probably have to step in again to rescue the yen.
Now the global financial markets of the US dollar and US Treasuries, yen and Japanese bonds are in chaos, coupled with the continuous issuance of AI bonds totaling 1.2 trillion annually, the global financial market is fiercely competing for liquidity. This is also why the global tech sector has recently underperformed and gold has declined. So when will this liquidity crisis end? It depends on when US Treasury yields fall from their highs back below 4.5%.
The above is just a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Please be aware of the risks. This discussion revolves around multiple hot topics in the investment market, covering strategic judgments and trend analyses in areas such as crypto assets, US stocks, gold, Chinese concept stocks, and sector rotation. The speaker provided specific operational advice based on macro background and technical signals.
Crypto Asset Trends and Dollar-Cost Averaging Strategy
Correlation Between Crypto and US Stocks
Crypto assets have recently risen again in sync with US stocks. If US stocks rise, crypto can follow; if US stocks fall, crypto also has room to decline. Currently, around 8, there is a bidirectional volatility space.
It is expected that from the end of this year to early next year, both crypto and US stocks may experience a downturn. However, if US stocks rise, crypto can also move upward accordingly, which does not affect the dollar-cost averaging rhythm.
Probability of Crypto Pullback and Operations
It is believed that crypto still has the possibility of a pullback but does not change the dollar-cost averaging plan.
Currently, daily dollar-cost averaging is done on three assets: the second largest, Solana, and Hyper.
View on Hyper Unlock
No particularly optimistic expectations for Hyper unlocking on September 16; hoping for a significant drop to create a buying opportunity at a low level.
Judgment on US and A-Share Market Linkage
Characteristics of the Current US Stock Trend
US stocks overall show a high-level oscillation pattern with a decent structure, but long-term valuations are relatively high, though short-term support remains.
The only issue is the long-term overvaluation, but short-term is not expensive, representing a structural contradiction.
Impact of US Stock Decline on A-Shares
If US stocks start a major decline, it may synchronously bring A-shares into a bear market, with timing possibly echoing each other.
If US stocks fall more than 30%, it is an extreme case; historically, this has happened only twice in 25 years (the 2000 internet bubble and the 2008 financial crisis). Other declines mostly stabilize between 10%-30%.
Fall 10%: No pressure on dollar-cost averaging
Fall 20%: Increase buying
Fall 30%: Go all out, "sell everything you have"
Possibility of Nasdaq New High
The S&P has made new highs in August-September; although the Nasdaq has not broken through, if it wants to make new highs, "it will go up in a few days."
Whether it makes new highs is no longer the focus; there are already contingency plans.
Gold and Dividend Asset Strategies
Gold Trend Judgment
Around 40 is a mid-to-low area; it has been repeatedly indicated that this position has allocation value.
There may be one more dip opportunity; falling below 40 to below 39 is even better. The previous high was 60, forming a contrast.
If there is no liquidity crisis, gold may fall less and even stabilize before US stocks, possessing some safe-haven potential.
Dividend Asset Operation Suggestions
If the dividend index is above 1.21, gradually reduce positions; the higher it rises, the more one should exit.
If it falls back to around 1.15, consider buying back some positions.
This strategy also applies to banking assets.
Semiconductor and ChiNext Operation Views
Triple Semiconductor Volatility Decline Phenomenon
Currently in a "volatility decline" phase, meaning implied volatility is decreasing, candlestick movements are flattening, and upper and lower shadows are shortening, showing continuous small amplitude fluctuations.
Similar to the previous gold volatility decline and bottoming process, there may be a rebound later, but breaking new highs will be difficult.
Whether to Participate in ChiNext
Can "try a bit," meaning short-term speculation on rebounds, but must exit promptly regardless of profit or loss.
If ChiNext dips again and then rebounds, there is upward potential, but the speaker does not participate due to personal preference.
Chinese Concept Stocks Attention Analysis
Reason for Frequent Questions on Chinese Concepts in the Circle
About 20% of members in the circle work at large tech companies (such as Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, Bilibili, Zhihu, etc.) and hold company stock options, so they must pay attention to Chinese concept stock trends.
If Chinese concept stocks truly fall to a certain low, dollar-cost averaging can be done gradually, but it is clearly reminded not to use leverage.
Japanese Economy and Exchange Rate Policy
Purpose of Japan's Interest Rate Hike
Mainly to alleviate yen depreciation pressure. In recent years, the yen has depreciated from 100 to around 160, and 1 RMB can exchange for yen from 100 to 160.
Exchange rate changes have greatly increased RMB's overseas purchasing power, explaining the large capital flows to Japan in recent years.
Long-Term View on Japanese Economy
Still believes Japan's economy itself has no major problems, but the relationship between the University of Tokyo and Japan will harden over the long term, with geopolitical struggles unlikely to improve.
From a five-year perspective, the relationship is unlikely to improve, with mutual "chokehold" risks.
Other Sectors and Asset Q&A
Stage of IGV
Clearly judged that IGV has entered the latter half.
US and Hong Kong Stock Power Issues
Not followed, unable to answer.
Attitude Toward Adding Positions During Micro Market Pullback
Clearly stated no intention to add positions.
Can Oil Price Reach 100?
Yesterday's quote was 90; believes oil price will come down but uncertain whether it will fall directly or first rise to 100 then fall; currently path is unclear.
Short Position on 7.7 Options
Suggest closing the position; the 7.7 short options can be exited.
Sectors to Invest in During September Rebound
If tech rebounds or dividends fall, tech may have rebound opportunities, but the correlation has weakened, and funds may not flow in as before.
The expected tech rebound height is not as fierce as before due to deteriorated chip structure.
Current Theme Speculation
Funds are currently concentrated in military, food, and other thematic concepts; theme speculation is normal in A-shares.
Can pay attention to the "recent multi-board" indicator; its strengthening indicates theme market activation, but currently themes are considered mostly played out.
Outlook for Nasdaq New High
S&P has made new highs in August-September; if Nasdaq wants to break through, it will be quick, but recent movement is sluggish; whether new highs occur is no longer a core concern.
Dollar-Cost Averaging Position and Community Operation Explanation
Current Dollar-Cost Averaging Position Level
Currently near 53%-54%, previously 50%, slowed due to recent market rise.
Community Renewal Attitude
Says "If you want to renew, renew; if not, forget it." Some user contracts expire at year-end; emphasizes fate is limited, no forcing.
AI Insights
The speaker uses technical terms like "volatility decline" and "synchronization" to build a market cognition framework, enhancing listeners' ability to identify trend turning points.
Repeatedly emphasizes risk control principles such as "no leverage" and "sell more as prices rise," reflecting a defensive counterattack strategy in a high-volatility environment.
Interpretation of the correlation between geopolitical issues and capital flows shows the speaker's habit of incorporating macro narratives into asset allocation logic. $BTC $XAU $SOXL BTC is barely moving. ETH is barely moving. Yet some alts are making violent moves. That can feel like altseason, but I’m not convinced. The easy detail to miss: broad altseason confirmation still isn’t there. Recent market data showed the Altcoin Season Index around 39, far below the 75 level typically used to confirm a broad altcoin rotation, while BTC dominance remained elevated. So I’m treating moves like $CHIP and $CP differently. $CHIP can give repeated swings that look predictable befor#30-year US Treasury yield stays above 5% for 41 consecutive days
"Steadily earning 5.2% interest for 41 days straight, the long-term bond pump has welded the ceiling on the market rebound"
The 30-year US Treasury yield has stayed above 5% for 41 consecutive days, and the risk-free interest has completely welded shut the ceiling on the secondary market rebound.
In the past, large funds had to heavily invest in tech stocks or on-chain assets to pursue returns, but now, lying in ultra-long government bonds with a stable 5.2% high interest annually, naturally no one is willing to take the risk and charge in.
The rebound in energy prices combined with massive fiscal deficits has flooded the market with ultra-long-term IOUs, forcing buyers to demand higher risk compensation before they are willing to pay.
Although the Treasury has used reserve funds to initiate cash buybacks of old debt, it simply cannot fill the huge supply gap in the face of hundreds of billions of new IOUs issued each quarter.
As long as this interest pump keeps roaring at full speed, large off-market funds will not stop their transfer and lock-up actions. $BTC Brothers, this market situation is giving me goosebumps
In August, BTC surged violently by 25%, marking its best performance since 2017. Just when we thought the bull run was cooling off quickly, on the first day of September it dropped straight from 79,000 to 76,500. Historical data shows September is BTC's weakest month, with an average return of -3% to -4% — the nickname "Rektember" is well deserved #FOMC last set of data before Friday's nonfarm payrolls
What's even more twisted is that the Fed's probability of a rate hike in September has already hit 64%, US Treasury yields have soared to 4.8%, and oil prices have broken $90. Macro bears are hammering down, saying liquidity will tighten and risk assets are doomed. #Robinhood chain volume surges, ARB revenue narrative heats up
But the price just hasn't crashed. $ETH $BTC
Because on the other side, institutional bulls are buying the dip despite the bad news — last week BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $924 million, and Strategy bought another 4,603 BTC at an average price of $80,318. You read that right, higher than the current market price. Institutions are putting real money down to draw a bottom line.
Looking at altcoins, BTC dominance is approaching 60%, the alt season index is only 29, far below the 75 threshold — funds are simply not flowing into small coins. SOL fell below 100, ETH dropped to 2400. Most altcoins are bleeding, only a few like HYPE rose 4% against the trend. #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 Eve of Nonfarm Payrolls — I'm waiting, but not betting
Tomorrow night at 20:30, the August nonfarm payroll data will be released. This is the biggest variable this week.
Market expectations are very divided: Reuters says 58,000, Wells Fargo says 80,000. July's data was -23,000 — the market expects a "violent rebound."
The probability of a rate hike is now about 66%. If the nonfarm payrolls exceed expectations, the rate hike probability may jump, and 76,000 may not hold. If the nonfarm payrolls fall significantly below 30,000, the rate hike expectation will loosen, and suppressed buying could instantly surge.
But the most subtle case is "meeting expectations" — between 50,000 and 80,000. The market has already priced in quite a bit of "hawkishness." If the data lands right in the middle, the rate hike probability won't drop — because Wash has already said inflation is the dominant variable.
My plan is simple: no adding or reducing positions before the data release, wait for the first 15-minute candlestick to form before making a move. Nonfarm payrolls are just an appetizer; the CPI on September 11 is the main course. In this market, surviving longer is more important than making quick profits. $BTC #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #日本长债收益率升至高位 $SPCX
Although this commercial aerospace company, registered in Wuxi and jointly built with Lianyungang, is most likely due to the north-south industrial support pairing between the two cities, and Wuxi itself has Blue Arrow, a leading company in China's commercial aerospace sector,
Lianyungang itself is not really a suitable place for launch site construction. There are many places in China currently building various aerospace industrial parks and launch sites, which is a very typical case of everyone rushing in.
Of course, many people facing this situation will cite examples like the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic industries, believing that even if there is overinvestment, it still promotes industry development. But different industries cannot be compared in parallel. The new energy and photovoltaic industries themselves have a deep "user pool," as well as considerable overseas users, and these industries also had much more generous fiscal subsidies during their development.
Domestic commercial aerospace is completely different. On one hand, due to the Wolf effect, the international market is almost non-existent; on the other hand, it still needs to compete with the strong national teams within the already limited domestic market.
Under these circumstances, repeating construction is most likely just a mess.Bro, the AI sector is back again.📦
After last night's market close, Dell and GitLab both released earnings reports, one rose 9%, the other surged 20%. The market is telling you with money—the AI story is far from over.
Dell's Q2 revenue was 46.97 billion, a year-on-year surge of 58%. AI server quarterly confirmed revenue reached 16.4 billion, doubling year-on-year, new orders hit a record high of 60.9 billion, and backlog orders reached 95 billion. The full-year AI server revenue guidance was raised to 74 billion.
GitLab's revenue was 286.3 million, up 21% year-on-year, earnings per share beat expectations by $0.06, and full-year revenue guidance was raised. AI programming tools haven't taken jobs away; instead, they've expanded the DevSecOps market.
For the crypto world, AI hardware demand hasn't collapsed, and the fundamental logic of coins supported by AI narratives remains intact. Dell has 60.9 billion in orders on hand, and GitLab's ARR is still accelerating—this is not the script of a bear market.👇🔥$OKB Don't mistake "platform coin" for a "Bitcoin clone," four things are more useful than just shouting deflation
The news talks about 21 million, X Layer, Pay, RWA, and people just blindly rush in. On September 3rd, it was still fluctuating between 104–106, down 7% in 7 days. First, laugh at these three counterintuitive facts before deciding your position:
First, fixed total supply ≠ daily appreciation. 21 million is a hard cap, but there is no longer manual buyback and burn; value depends on real usage like X Layer transaction fees, Exchange OS, OKX Pay, and ecosystem staking; whether the mainnet is busy and how much Gas is consumed is more important than the "Bitcoin benchmark" PPT.
Second, platform coin = exchange shadow stock. OKB valuation is tied to OKX spot/futures volume, coin listings, reserve proofs, MiCA/local compliance, AML audits; only with large trading volume and real income feeding back into the ecosystem does it have a foundation. When facing regulatory or security negatives, it falls more sentimentally than public chain coins.
Third, don't be fooled by thin liquidity. Circulating 21 million looks scarce, but some platforms only have 20 to 30 million in 24h trading volume, causing large slippage on big orders; from 80+ in August to 115, then back to 105 in September, this is "expectation maxed out—data verification" digestion, not a crash nor a continued straight rise.
Fourth, macro matters more than the boss's words. US Treasury yields at 4.81%, oil prices rising due to Hormuz Strait, over 60% expectation of a September FOMC rate hike, high beta assets like OKB get slammed first. $OKB #Gold ETF increased holdings by nearly 10 tons, options volatility draws attention
#Gold ETF increased holdings by nearly 10 tons, options volatility draws attention
Latest data
Top global gold ETFs increased holdings by nearly 10 tons in a single day, spot gold steadied around $4430, gold options implied volatility rose, with funds speculating on the non-farm payroll results. On the market, $BTC and gold correlation increased, overall maintaining a range-bound oscillation.
Market consensus
Some institutions believe that risk-averse funds continue to flow in, and the strengthening of precious metals will boost risk asset sentiment; others warn that this increase is a short-term portfolio adjustment, and if the non-farm data exceeds expectations, US Treasury yields will rebound, putting simultaneous pressure on gold and $BTC.
Underlying logic analysis
Large inflows into gold ETFs indicate institutions are hedging against macro uncertainty. Gold and crypto currently share the same arbitrage rate expectation logic; gold strength will provide sentiment support for $BTC but cannot change the market itself. Ultimately, it depends on interest rate pricing after the non-farm data release. Rising options volatility suggests market fluctuations will amplify around the weekend.
Personal view (personally leaning towards a gradual return of the bull market, just a personal opinion, not investment advice)
Do not take ETF increases directly as a buy signal. Approaching major data releases, control position sizes and avoid severe volatility during the data window. The world's largest gold ETF increased its holdings by nearly 10 tons in one go yesterday, bringing its position back above 1,056 tons. A single-day inflow of 9.984 tons—the last time we saw such a large volume was during the July surge of gold $XAU to 4600. Behind this is the weaker-than-expected August ADP employment data, which slightly eased rate hike expectations, allowing gold to rebound.
The Dutch central bank also made moves. From March to August this year, they moved 86 tons of gold from New York and Ottawa to London. The reason is straightforward—"rising geopolitical uncertainty," and London is the world's most liquid gold market, able to convert to cash fastest in times of crisis. France had already withdrawn all its gold from New York last year; the Netherlands is following suit, not leading.
Goldman Sachs added another point. The report says that the hedging behavior of gold options market makers may amplify gold price volatility—when the price rises, market makers are forced to chase buys, buying more as it rises; when it falls, these hedges turn into selling pressure, accelerating the decline. In short, options amplify the magnitude of gold price fluctuations.
Back to Bitcoin $BTC, the gold ETF inflow indicates that macro funds are still interested in the "devaluation hedge" narrative. Like BTC, both assets are watching Friday's nonfarm payrolls—if the data is soft, rate hike expectations continue to ease, and both can catch a breather. If the data is strong, the dollar will push up, and both gold and BTC will have to take a hit first. #黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 September 4 Nonfarm Payrolls, 11 CPI, 15 FOMC triple hit—can the crypto market withstand it?
Don’t just look at the market’s red and green; the real bomb in September is the calendar: Nonfarm Payrolls on the 4th, CPI on the 11th, and FOMC on the 15th—each more intense than the last.
Let’s break down the macro risks. First, on September 4 (Friday), the August Nonfarm Payrolls—July actually decreased by 23,000 (expected +80,000), unemployment rate at 4.1%. If this report is soft again, rate hike expectations will collapse, and BTC might actually rise; if strong, the probability of a September rate hike (currently 53%) will break 60%, and risk assets will take a hit. Then on the 11th, CPI—core PCE is still stuck at 3.3%, far from the 2% target. If inflation rebounds, US Treasury yields will continue to surge, breaking the discounted valuation logic for $BTC.
The grand finale is the FOMC on the 15th-16th, with the interest rate anchored at 3.50-3.75% unchanged for five meetings, and the new chair Warsh leaning hawkish. Don’t forget September is also the quarterly options expiration month (Triple Witching), which will amplify derivatives volatility.
My conclusion: don’t go all-in betting on direction in this half month; use events for swing trading and wait until after the 15th when the situation becomes clearer. Cash is also a position. Nonfarm Payrolls Approaching｜Coca-Cola $KO, an Overlooked Equity Safe Haven Choice🔥
This Friday's nonfarm payrolls are about to be released; the strength of employment figures will directly reshape market sentiment.
Most people's first reaction to risk aversion is gold, but institutions have another option: the consumer staples leader Coca-Cola.
Two nonfarm scenarios:
✅ Employment data overheats, employment continues to expand
Inflation risks rise, rate hike expectations rekindle, high-valuation AI growth stocks come under pressure.
Funds will flee high-volatility sectors and flow into certainty assets. Coca-Cola has solid cash flow, consistently raises dividends annually, and essential consumer demand is less affected by economic cycles, making it a risk buffer in the stock pool.
✅ Employment data cools significantly, economic slowdown expected
Risk assets broadly fall in panic, gold benefits first. But Coca-Cola's history of resilience through multiple crises and stable dividend cash flow will also attract safe-haven funds.
Gold trades on panic and interest rates; Coca-Cola trades on operational certainty.
When institutions don't want to fully exit the stock market, they allocate to these low-beta leaders to hedge portfolio risk.
But be realistic: it earns money from volatility defense, not explosive rallies. It already carries a certainty premium, so don't blindly chase highs.
Next, focus on Friday's nonfarm results; employment data will determine where funds switch. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $KO Luckily, I shorted cap for a bit and recovered the losses from shorting use in the middle of the night.
Actually, if I had held the short on use for another ten minutes, I could have made another 100u. But I still exited with a 20u loss. I saw the trend was off and was afraid it wouldn't drop. Today, use continues its upward structure, and it probably needs to return to 0.13 to establish a downtrend.
To be honest, the loss on the short use trade was due to my own greed. If I had taken a small profit of 15u, I could have done it within 5 minutes of opening the position, but I was hoping to wake up and make 200u, so I didn't set a take-profit price. (I judged the downtrend would hold stubbornly between 0.102-0.105)
But I woke up in the middle of the night feeling uneasy and realized the direction was wrong. So I just closed the position. Honestly, it's still a discipline issue. For altcoins, take a small profit and run, especially when the daily upward structure hasn't broken yet. Never hold for long. Don't dream of getting rich; beating the exchange interest is already a win.📰 【Serenity: Sivers Expands Indium Phosphide Production Capacity, AI Optical Communication Market May See Potential Space Worth Billions of Dollars.】
BlockBeats reports that on September 3, Serenity posted that Sivers Semiconductor (SIVE) announced plans to expand its indium phosphide manufacturing capacity in Glasgow, Scotland, targeting an annual production capacity of about 100 million continuous wave distributed feedback lasers, expected to be operational by Q4 2027. This expansion plan was officially disclosed by Sivers. Serenity estimates, based on Sivers' historical pricing of about $50-100 per 8-laser array, that the potential annual revenue from the new capacity could reach approximately $625 million to $1.25 billion (model projection only)...
Just saw this news, my first reaction wasn’t whether the capacity is enough, but whether players in this sector are starting to position themselves early. Now the AI narrative is shifting from computing power to upstream optical modules. Indium Phosphide is considered a core material in lasers. Expanding production by 100 million units is indeed impressive, but actual implementation depends on yield rates and validation cycles. The capital market tends to hype the story first.
What’s really worth noting is that this kind of upstream hard technology is increasingly like "selling shovels to the gold miners"; once volume scales, it might be even more stable than making the end devices. However, ordinary retail investors chasing these deep-water stocks need to first consider whether they are holding a promise or an actual stake. Do you think this wave marks the start of a new hardware cycle, or is it just a concept hype riding on the AI name?
$BTC $ETH $BNB BTC holding near $77,837 while ETH and SOL lag its daily gain suggests this is still a selective risk bid, not a broad crypto breakout. I would treat the move as cautious positioning into the last NFP before the FOMC, with macro sensitivity still in control.
Gold ETF inflows and weak crude add to the defensive backdrop. Until participation widens beyond BTC, durability matters more than headline momentum, and stronger balance sheets should command the premium.
Just my read, not advice.NVIDIA $NVDA Risks
Memory costs continue to rise with poor pass-through; supply bottlenecks causing delivery delays; insufficient power capacity limiting data center construction; AI capital expenditure cycle peaking; geopolitical and export controls.
Certainty: AWS $270 billion large order, demand visibility already extended to the end of 2027; while supply gaps for CoWoS, HBM, and glass substrates may not be filled until 2028. This means that at least until the end of 2027, NVIDIA's performance is "supported by supply constraints," with a still relatively high probability of earnings beating expectations each quarter. Risk points focus on gross margin (memory cost pass-through) and growth baseline after 2027. For the AI industry chain, NVIDIA's supply constraints = continued scarcity of computing power = sustained prosperity upstream (CoWoS, HBM, power), which is a transmission chain more worth tracking than the stock price itself. $CORE repeatedly delays deposits, overextending not only the market but also the project's own confidence
$CORE's deposit times have been postponed twice in a row, with the recovery window pushed back again and again.
On the surface, it looks like just exchange wallet maintenance, but the damage to the project itself is continuously accumulating.
The controversy over the token issuance bug has not yet settled, with maintenance end times being changed one after another. The first thing to be depleted is community trust.
The public chain has always touted security and decentralization externally, but in reality, the token issuance has fatal vulnerabilities, and the deposit channels repeatedly fail to function properly. No matter how grand the ecological narrative is, it will be greatly undermined by these recurring real-world issues.
Delays will not eliminate the abnormal tokens issued on-chain; they only postpone the timing of selling pressure.
Risks will not vanish into thin air; they just leave the storm for the next time window.
Continuous uncertainty will also keep external funds and potential partners on high alert.
The institutional entry stories repeatedly mentioned by the community will only grow more distant from reality.
Tomorrow at 11 AM is another new deadline. The credibility eroded by repeated delays will be extremely costly to regain.
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