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Evening position ramblings.
The market continues to diverge tonight, with one side in heaven and the other in hell.
$BTC BTC 100x long, ETH 20x long, continuing to reap dividends, the profits of large long positions are still climbing. When the market gives, hold on.
The short positions on $DOGE and $ONE are really suffering. The margin ratio has been squeezed very low, and the spike during the small coin rebound is terrifyingly damaging. Holding against the trend is very exhausting.
This is how high leverage works. Explosive returns when winning, instant pressure when losing. Don’t get cocky when winning, don’t stubbornly hold when losing, always watch out for forced liquidation risks. Opportunities are always there, risk control always comes first.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 Sisters, although I also opened a long position on $ZEC at around 1500, I actually hope it drops because my short position is still open. The long position is just to recover some losses. It dropped yesterday but then pulled back to over 1500 today, almost 1600 now. Actually, it makes sense—yesterday in the dynamic group everyone was shouting that a waterfall drop was coming, so more uninformed people rushed in headfirst. That short squeeze fuel just came .$BTC #FedHikesBTCResilience $APR I originally just wanted to grab a quick breakfast, but the market ended up handing me half a year's worth of dumplings.😅
Yesterday at dawn, APR repeatedly surged at a high level, but the volume didn't keep up, and the resistance above was clear. I was watching APR's order book and saw that every surge was just short of breath, so I signaled bearish: high-level pressure, don't chase.
Later, I shorted from 0.2422 down to 0.1491, +769.61%, giving a direct answer. The earlier hesitation turned out to be really rewarding.
The market cures all kinds of arrogance, especially from those who think they're the smartest. Risk control done upfront is called rational; cutting losses later is called decisive.
I first closed 80%, keeping the remaining 20% at cost price for protection. If it continues to drop, let the profits run; if it rebounds, don't give the profits back. Don't be greedy for the last bit.
For friends who haven't gotten on board yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush in. Chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. Wait for the next signal before moving. Stay tuned for good news.
$XRP $ADA Brothers, I really can't hold on anymore.
Originally, I planned to turn 100 dollars into 100,000 dollars, working hard for a month, but ended up losing 30 dollars.
What's worse is this week. Shorting has completely knocked me back to square one.
Shorted $ZEC, got hit.
Shorted Ethereum, got hit.
Shorted altcoins, still got hit.
At most, I had a dozen short positions open at the same time, but the bulls kept pushing prices up wave after wave, and all I could do was keep cutting losses.
At first, I thought it was just a pullback, that if I held on, it would come down eventually. Now I realize the problem isn't that the market doesn't give opportunities, but that I've been using bear market thinking in a bull market.
This week I lost all the profits from the past three months, and even started losing principal.
The monthly return rate once reached 80%, and now looking at that number, I really want to cry.
Especially $ZEC. If I had admitted my mistake earlier, I wouldn't have lost so much. The little money I made going long later all went into margin for the previous short positions.
But I didn't learn my lesson and went to short $ONE again.
I have to admit, the bull market is really here.
I used to think that after such a strong rise, it must fall. You think it should fall, but it just keeps going up.
Looking back now, not losing money might already be considered good.
In such a crazy market, staying alive and at the table is more important than anything.
The challenge of turning 100 dollars into 100,000 dollars is not over yet.
The first thing next is not to make money, but to learn to protect the principal. Seeing recent news about XRP, some whales bought up about 470 million XRP in five days, worth approximately $724 million, and the daily chart even formed a technical pattern similar to a "head and shoulders bottom." With such a concentrated stream of positive news, I naturally hope to catch this wave and steadily see $2 first. But looking closely at this candlestick, it has fallen from the previous high of $3.38 all the way down to $0.98, and is now slowly oscillating around $1.54. There are relatively thick trapped positions in the $1.80–$2.00 range above. To truly break through $2, whales alone accumulating shares is not enough. More importantly, new off-exchange funds must enter the market, using real money to absorb the selling pressure above. If I had seen this kind of news before, I might have already rushed inSOL has risen this much already, is it at the top?
I'm not worried at all. I glanced at the Fear and Greed Index, and it's just a bit over 70. During the last real frenzy, this index stayed above 80 for more than a month, with people shouting 'top' every day, but it kept rising until no one dared to speak.
At this stage, frankly: the price is running fast, but the sentiment is still catching up. Most people's positions are still the bottom positions scared $BTC #FedHikesBTCResilience 最後來從消息面，還有後續要觀察哪些，來跟大家做個結尾。 資金面：ETF 最新落定的還是 9 月 24 日（美東）。美國現貨比特幣 ETF 約淨流入 1.9 億美元，連續六個交易日；以太幣約 6,600 萬，連續五個交易日；Solana 約 3,280 萬，主要是 Bitwise 的 BSOL；XRP 約 1,490 萬。9 月 25 日美東的交易日還沒結束，數字還沒出來，先不硬湊。 合約面：OKX 永續資金費率，比特幣、以太小幅偏正，Solana、狗狗、瑞波都在 0.01% 的基本水位，整體正常。Solana 的未平倉量從今天早上約 289 萬顆，增加到晚上約 299 萬顆；瑞波約 7,500 萬顆、狗狗約 10.2 億顆，也都比早上多一些。山寨漲的同時槓桿也在回來，回落的時候速度也會比較快。 總經面：10 年期美債殖利率大概 5.17%，30 年期約 5.46%，2 年期約 4.90%，都還在高檔；美元準備收連兩週週線上漲，是三個多月來第一次。Fed 理事巴爾這週說後面還會有「進一步的政策調整」，市場的升息預期沒散。今天美國沒有 PCE，8 月 PCE 在 9 月 30 日美東早上 #美元稳定币或加速出海
The U.S. government is personally stepping in to promote the overseas expansion of dollar stablecoins. This is not a positive development for the crypto industry; it is the extension of dollar hegemony in the digital age. Using private stablecoins to counter the digital renminbi and digital euro is smarter and more dangerous than pushing CBDCs.
On September 24, according to insiders, the Trump administration is considering an initiative to promote the use of dollar-denominated stablecoins overseas by establishing joint ventures with private companies, involving the Treasury Department, the State Department, and the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC). The core goal is to boost demand for U.S. debt—stablecoin issuers are required to hold cash and short-term U.S. Treasuries as reserves. Since 2022, Tether and Circle have increased their holdings of short-term U.S. Treasuries by about $70 billion.
BIS data reveals the trump card: dollar stablecoins account for 99.4% of the global $320 billion market. In non-dollar regions, transactions using dollar stablecoins to purchase local currencies make up over 70% of recent trading activity. Sachs and Bessent have long identified stablecoins as tools to "expand dollar dominance."
This is the dollar system's "proxy war" strategy in the CBDC race. Not relying on central banks, but on private enterprises. For the crypto market, this means regulation on stablecoins will tighten faster, but it also means the global penetration of dollar stablecoins will deepen. In the short term, this benefits leading compliant issuers; in the long term, it squeezes the survival space of non-dollar stablecoins. Apple stock can now be used as collateral to borrow $USDC
Collateral cap is 29 million, supply cap is 32 million.
The data looks like this: 7 US stock tokens, collateral ratios from 65% to 79%.
Working backward, the maximum loanable amount is 21 million.
What is the bet here: Coinbase puts stocks on-chain, Aave acts as the channel.
From a market maker’s perspective, this is a new leg.
But 29 million is just a drop in the bucket compared to the US stock market.
Simply put, the pool is too shallow; big money can’t get in.
I’ll consider reallocating when the cap reaches hundreds of millions.
At this depth now, even someone like me with minimal holdings finds it crowded.
Just watching for now, no rush to move.
#美股探索代币化与全天候交易
#Ondo推出基于贝莱德策略的代币化投资组合 #稳定币新规推进，支付结算加速落地 $USDC $ZEC AT $29.40: THE SILENT SUPPLY CRUNCH
On-Chain: Record ZEC migrating into Shielded Pools, draining liquid spot orderbooks
🏛️ Inflows: Regulated European ETPs & Grayscale demand validate Zero-Knowledge settlement
Shielded storage functions like dark cold storage—coins exit visible circulation. Privacy is rapidly turning into an aggressive scarcity driver
Supply squeeze breakout, or will compliance friction stall the run?$BTC #FedHikesBTCResilience The US spot BTC ETF has seen net inflows for six consecutive trading days, totaling over $2.8 billion.
At the same time, Binance experienced a single-day net outflow exceeding 13,800 BTC, the largest since 2023.
According to common narratives, this should be a strong combination of "institutional buying + exchange supply decline."
However, BTC is still only around $84,400, about 3.4% below the September 21 high of $87,392.
There is a key distinction here:
ETF inflows represent real demand; exchange outflows are merely fund transfers and cannot be directly defined as buying.
Current data more strongly supports "a potential decline in sellable supply and sustained spot demand," but it is not yet enough to confirm a breakout.
The next step to verify is not to continue counting how much BTC flows out, but whether the price can reclaim the $86,700–$87,400 range.
If the ETF continues net inflows and this range is retaken, the capital structure gains price confirmation; if inflows persist but the breakout fails, then the supply pressure at the high level needs to be re-evaluated. ETH pulled from 1900 to 2800 then dropped back to 2678, is it stalling?
Seems like those who bought haven't left.
Something strange happened on-chain:
Priority fees +26.74% in one day, about $464,000, gas usage only +0.26%, block count 7147, almost unchanged.
The network isn't busier, but more money was spent.
Only one explanation: someone is bidding up to jump the queue, competing for the same block capacity.
Let me explain what priority fee means: how much more users are willing to pay to get faster processing.
CryptoQuant analysts: gas usage hasn't dropped significantly, indicating that even with the price pullback, demand for Ethereum block space hasn't materially weakened.
Price fell, but no one stopped rushing to get on-chain.
Investing now is really headache-inducing, there's so much to learn, that's the pain of short-term waves.
Supply is even tighter on this side.
On-chain data analytics firm Santiment: only 3.49% of ETH remains on exchanges, down another 1.16% since June 1, summer levels once dropped to what Ethereum saw in its early years.
35% of what's left is staked, DeFi still locks up 53 billion, BitMine alone holds 5.98 million coins, 85% also staked.
The spot available to grab is less than you think.
But there are still bullets and loopholes.
Binance ERC-20 stablecoins rose from the August low of 42 billion back to 43.8 billion (still below this year's high of 49 billion). BTC and ETH are becoming new financial collateral
A large Russian bank recently announced
plans to accept BTC and ETH as loan collateral
under regulatory approval
Many people see such news
and their first reaction is short-term bullishness
But the real significance
is not how much buying it immediately brings
but that the financial identity of digital assets is changing
In the past, BTC and ETH were mostly seen as investment products
Traditional financial institutions were willing to observe
but rarely truly integrated them into lending processes
Now banks are discussing custody
collateral ratios
margin calls and liquidation mechanisms
This indicates the market is moving from whether they can be traded
to whether they can be used by the financial system
BTC has stronger reserve attributes
and its market depth and consensus foundation are more mature
ETH has a more complex ecological value
It is not only related to price
but also connected to staking networks and on-chain applications
Of course, becoming collateral does not mean there is no risk
BTC and ETH prices still fluctuate greatly
Banks cannot lend at full market value
In the future, they are more likely to adopt lower collateral ratios
dynamic margin calls
and strict liquidation rules
Investors should no longer only watch whether funds buy $BTC and $ETH
but also pay attention to whether they enter lending
settlement and asset management systems
When digital assets can be used as collateral
can obtain credit
and participate in financial pricing
they truly begin to approach financial infrastructure
Price increases are only surface changes
The expansion of financial functions is a deeper signalLet's take a look at the Ripple section. The current price is about 1.585. Today, Ripple rose more than three percent, with the daily high reaching 1.63, making it one of the few gainers today. But looking at the daily chart, it seems more like a correction after a breakout and a further upward test, without giving any special signals yet. So for Ripple, I won't specifically call for new short positions this round; I'll just keep observing and avoid trading lightly. If you previously had short positions, just follow the original take-profit and stop-loss orders: for the remaining half, if the stop-loss was set near the opening price of 1.61, and today it hit 1.63, it broke even and exited—that's discipline; And for those holding positions, the final line of defense is still 1.72. If it breaks through, you must exit—never hold in positions. For long positions, it's best to consider only at the range bottom near 1.35; if it doesn't hit the spot, just go short. As for taking profits, it's really hard for me to give advice—it's up to your own luck. The previous points I've given are almost all here. Today is the time to make your own decisions and do it well. In terms of chips, the latest US spot XRP ETF was settled on September 24, with a net inflow of about $14.9 million—the third best day this month—institutional inflows are still ongoing. On the futures side, on OKX, Ripple's perpetual funding rate is around 0.01%, which is normal. Open interest is a bit higher than this morning, about 75 million lots, and leverage has returned with the price. When prices rise, leverage builds up, and pullbacks tend to be more sudden. On the news side, on September 30, It's not that there's no fear of tightening, but rather a bet on a policy turning point
The Fed remains on hold, but hawkish signals have not ceased. Several officials have consecutively sent tightening signals, and the market's bet on another rate hike before the end of the year has risen to over 50%. However, BTC still holds steady around 86,000, with the capital game not about risk aversion but about "peak interest rates."
But resistance to decline does not mean immunity. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields are approaching 5%, and mortgage rates remain high. If tightening is implemented again, rising real interest rates will first suppress risk assets; if 86,000 is breached, liquidity support will be tested. Conversely, if the pause button is pressed, the dollar will fall, shorts will cover, and BTC may directly challenge previous highs.
The key is not a single action, but whether tightening becomes the norm. One instance can be digested, but continuous tightening kills valuations. Currently, BTC is running ahead on "limited tightening" rather than "permanent easing."
If there is another move in October, the current rebound is an early overdraft; if the choice is to wait and see, off-market funds will be forced to chase higher. The direction is not in the candlesticks but in the Fed's wording.
Are you betting on a move in October or not?
#美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ $BTC $ETH $SOL Last winter, I was pulled into a group by an old friend. He kept posting screenshots every day, some green, some red. I kept watching and got hooked. I first bought some $BTC. After buying, it dropped. Those days, I even skipped breakfast. Tossing and turning at night, I kept wanting to check the market on my phone. Later, after holding on for quite a while, I quickly sold on the day I broke even. Made enough for a barbecue meal. I became more sensible. Now I only use spare money to buy $ETH. If it drops, I don't add more. If it rises, I don't chase. The calls in the group, I just take them as jokes. If they were really that accurate, they'd have quietly gotten rich themselves. I also tried $SOL. It’s really fast, but my heart couldn't keep up. Sold after holding for two days. Slept soundly at night. This stuff, playing with spare money is fine. Borrowing money to rush in is a trap. Don't always think about getting rich overnight. First, think about what to do if you lose it all. I rarely check the market now. Work when I should work, sleep when I should sleep. Profits are luck, losses are tuition fees. Living steadily is better than anything else. #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
#Muse加速扩张，MetaAI投入或迎来变现 LINK stands at 13.79 USDT
$LINK is currently at 13.79 USDT, up 10.1% in 24h. Outside, CoinMarketCap has acquired CoinGlass to expand derivatives data. On the exchange, it’s still moving as it should.
The intraday high reached 14.22 USDT, and the current price is not far from that level. The 24h trading volume is 26.8 million USDT, showing significant volume on the chart. The chips in hand are turning over quite frequently.
Nearby, $SUI rose +11.0%, and $ZEC also gained +4.2%. It roughly moves up together with this batch of popular coins, not a one-sided move. The pace is basically consistent.
I see it has accumulated +13.4% this week, with most of the gains happening in the past day. The short-term rise is indeed very sharp, with a much faster rhythm than the previous days.
I’m watching the support near the previous high closely. Since the short-term rise is so steep, I don’t plan to rush in; better to watch more and act less to avoid getting stuck. I’ll wait for this momentum to ease before making a move. Let's take a look at Dogecoin. The current price is about 0.0979. Today, following the altcoin, it jumped more than two percentages. The daily high is around 0.099, very close to the position we want, but hasn't actually touched it yet. The dog's approach is simple: once it reaches 0.1, we short, stop-loss at 0.12. It's still just a little short of 0.098, so don't chase short at the bottom; wait until it reaches 0.1 before acting. Open when the price is right; wait if not. There's no reason to hesitate. As for taking profit, just like Solana, it's really hard for me to give advice—it's up to your own luck. The key is to set your stop loss at 0.12 first. Once it breaks, cut down, don't wait until 0.15 to wake up. I previously opened short positions near 0.101, but today's high hasn't touched that area yet. Just keep the remaining half with your original take-profit and stop-loss options. For long positions, it's best to consider only when it falls back to the range bottom near 0.08. In terms of chips, Dogecoin doesn't have the daily flow numbers of ETFs like Bitcoin; it mainly follows altcoin sentiment and contract leverage. On OKX, Dogecoin's perpetual funding rate is around 0.01%, which is normal; Open interest is slightly higher than this morning, about 1.02 billion, and leverage is slowly recovering. Sentiment coins surge, and fall quickly, so don't hold too heavy positions when you go short. On the news side, Dogecoin is highly linked to the market and altcoin sentiment. Today's wave rebounded alongside Solana and Ripple,$ONE looks increasingly abandoned.
After the August exploit that reportedly forged ~3T ONE and forced a 140K+ block rollback, trust in the chain took another major hit following the 2022 Horizon bridge hack.
TVL has collapsed from around $1B to roughly $150K, while on-chain activity and fees have nearly disappeared.
With the migration to Ethereum, shrinking market cap, and validators exiting, the L1 economy looks severely weakened.
For now, the fundamentals offer little reason for optimism. BTC pulled back after surging to $87,400: a shakeout or a failed breakout?
The daily trend remains bullish, with the 4-hour chart currently testing support. The $88,000 resistance is strong, but it’s too early to conclude the rebound is over.
This rally was driven by ETF spot buying and short stop-losses, not just contract spikes. Open interest declined during the pullback, funding rates briefly turned negative, and high-leverage longs were cleared; ETFs still saw net inflows, and exchange balances did not increase significantly. This looks more like profit-taking and high-level rotation rather than a concentrated institutional exit.
Technically, the daily chart remains above short-term moving averages, and the uptrend structure is intact; however, the 4-hour highs are lower, volume hasn’t expanded, and bulls have shifted from offense to defense.
Key zones to watch:
$83,000–$84,000 is the first support; holding here could lead to a rebound to $86,000 and then retesting $87,400–$88,000;
$80,000–$82,000 is the lifeline; a break here is normal for a shakeout, but if it breaks and fails to recover on a rebound, weakness will set in;
Only a volume-backed hold above $88,000 can open the $90,000–$92,000 range.
On the macro side, US stock risk appetite hasn’t fully deteriorated yet, but the 10-year US Treasury yield has risen above 5%, and high interest rates continue to limit BTC’s upside.
In the coming days, expect consolidation first, then a directional choice. Watch $82,000 for support; if missed, wait for a pullback confirmation; the bias is bullish but that doesn’t mean every level is a buy.
$ETH $SOL $BTC $AKE No big picture, can't hold on, this wave of profit is as thin as paper, but I love it to death.😎
When the market was just crushed in the early session, AKE had strong sell orders, low trading volume, and obvious resistance above, a typical sign of a continued decline. When others were running, I suggested following the trend to short, opened a short position at 0.05149, not perfect but good enough.
Then the answer came directly: 0.03637, short position +587.29% profit in hand, worth the wait, really satisfying. The earlier hesitation, the drop was ruthless, big gains.
The premise of compounding is survival; the shortcut to getting rich is often going to zero.
Hold as long as the trend is intact, run when it breaks, don't fall in love with the market.
Position management: first close 80%, keep 20% at cost price for protection, don't let profits become uncomfortable if it rebounds. Now is not the time to rush, chasing shorts easily gets stuck halfway, wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, opportunities remain, don't be anxious.💥
$ETH $LAB A reminder of a signal many overlook but that can overturn risk assets: the Japanese yen.
Tonight, the USD/JPY briefly fell below 157, dropping over 1% intraday. Behind the yen's sharp rise is often a carry trade unwind—money borrowed cheaply in yen to buy global risk assets starts to pull back. The global stock crash in August last year was triggered by a yen carry unwind.
High-beta assets like $BTC are always the first to be thrown off in such deleveraging. I'm not saying there will be a crash tonight, but this tension must be kept taut. Don't just focus on the Federal Reserve; moves from the Bank of Japan can equally decide the fate of your positions. Are you watching the yen?🚨 $ETH — $1.154B LIQUIDATION INTENSITY ≠ $1.154B LOST! 👀
That $1.154B represents positions at risk—not realized losses or guaranteed sell orders.
📊 ETH range: $2,576 ↔ $2,822
⚠️ Large leveraged positions are stacked across the zone.
📉 If ETH approaches $2,576, forced liquidations could increase selling pressure and potentially trigger further liquidations below.
🧠 Key takeaway:
Liquidation intensity = potential positions at risk, not money already lost.
#FedHikesBTCResilience A reminder of a signal many overlook but that can overturn risk assets: the Japanese yen.
Tonight, the USD/JPY briefly fell below 157, dropping over 1% intraday. Behind the yen's sharp rise is often a carry trade unwind—money borrowed cheaply in yen to buy global risk assets starts to pull back. The global stock crash in August last year was triggered by a yen carry unwind.
High-beta assets like $BTC are always the first to be thrown off in such deleveraging. I'm not saying there will be a crash tonight, but this tension must be kept taut. Don't just focus on the Federal Reserve; moves from the Bank of Japan can equally decide the fate of your positions. Are you watching the yen?One key point: the $API3 50M figure looks more like an estimate than an exact amount. Based on the entry prices and quantities provided, the combined entry notional comes to approximately $312.6M, before accounting for current mark prices, margin requirements, trading fees, or funding costs. Key levels to monitor: - ETH: Short entry around $2,337, with liquidation near $4,000 — approximately +71% above the entry level. - BTC: Short entry around $74,443, with liquidation near $146,000 — roughly +CORE's Twitter scoop on the evening of 9.25: all positive news remains at the expectation stage
On the evening of September 25, after browsing CORE's official X, there was no major announcement that shook the scene; it was all reposted content, basically continuing the momentum from the overseas roadshow.
The official account reposted a partner's post, saying that communication with US banks is still ongoing, mainly discussing BTC-Fi compliance integration and institutional custody solutions. Note that these are just negotiations, with no signing or implementation announcements yet.
On the developer side, the DApp has version updates; native BTC staking can participate in a new round of testing, which is laying groundwork for SatPay, still in the testing phase.
Community admins in the comments were chased by overseas users asking about token unlocks and mainnet performance, only saying the roadmap won't change, but still cannot give a clear launch date for SatPay.
Now the overseas community is split in two, with completely opposing views.
The bulls' logic is straightforward: business talks in the US haven't stopped, the BTC-Fi story is still alive. The market retraced to the 0.02335 SuperTrend support on the 15-minute chart, price held, and they believe it's just a consolidation phase waiting for news to trigger a move.
⚠️ All news is still in the expectation fermentation stage, with no concrete results yet, combined with token unlock selling pressure, the narrative-driven market has high uncertainty. $BTC #OKX星球话题来啦 Let's take a look at Ethereum. Current price is about 2,694. It rose slightly today, and after a 24-hour high around 2,740, it bounced back. Looking at the daily chart, like Bitcoin, it's still in the correction after the previous breakout and hasn't shown a clear direction. There are no special signals here. My advice is to keep observing and not trade lightly. The overall framework hasn't changed. Long positions should wait for the bottom of the range, around 2,400 to 2,500, then consider. Only enter when the price returns to the opening space, and set stop-loss together; If it doesn't come back, just wait—no need to rush. It's highly interconnected with Bitcoin; when the market is correcting and pulling back, it follows the correction. At times like this, it's easiest to want to do something, but if the position isn't there, entering is just betting on direction. If you can wait, you have a chance to get in at a good position; Today, the altcoins are rotating around, and Ethereum is only a small increase, so there's no need to rush just because others are rising. On the chip side, the latest US spot Ethereum ETF was settled on September 24, with a net inflow of about $66 million, marking the fifth consecutive trading day of inflows; The numbers for September 25 have not yet been released. On the contract side, the Ethereum perpetual funding rate on OKX is slightly positive, within a normal range, not overheated. Buying is still ongoing, but the capital situation is relatively high and whether orders can be opened at the current price are two different matters. Don't rush to chase just because you see inflows. On the news side, US Treasury yields and the dollar remain high, and market expectations for Fed rate hikes have not faded, which will weigh on risk assets. Also, Bitget was stolenDon't just focus on the crypto circle, look up and check out the neighboring AI and storage sectors.
Tonight, the US stock storage sector broadly rose, with Micron, SanDisk, and SK Hynix all soaring. Bank of America also raised AMD's target price from 620 to 720. Hot money is getting more and more hyped in the AI narrative, and this is like grasshoppers on the same rope as $BTC — the same batch of risk appetite money, rising together and falling together.
What I fear most when playing cards is everyone at the table going All in on the same hand. The more aggressively AI stacks up, once funding costs can't hold, the sharper the pullback will be. This isn't a call to short, but a reminder not to treat this wave as risk-free. Are you adding or reducing your AI stocks?PMI surged to 58.4, directly wiping out rate cut expectations. The 10-year bond yield topped around 5.11, and BTC, as a non-yielding asset, is being drained. After breaking below 85,000, the massive long liquidation cluster above 86,184 has been pierced, and the liquidation map clearly leans bearish.
Just turned into a backstreet and parked the car sideways, a collection SMS popped up again, I pressed the screen off and continued watching the market.
The MACD green bars shortening only indicates deceleration, RSI is still in the neutral zone, so it’s not oversold at all, meaning limited rebound space. Current price is around 83,307; a rebound to 84,200–84,800 is a short entry zone. Place stop-loss defense above 86,200; if it effectively stands back above the liquidation cluster, admit the mistake and exit.
Take profit first looks at 81,000; if broken, then 79,500. After breaking below 82,500, don’t chase shorts; wait for a rebound to enter again.
$BTC
#稳定币新规推进，支付结算加速落地
@OKX星球 Something worth watching today if you're trading SOL:
A significant portion of Solana options open interest is expiring.
Reported key strike areas include $90, $105 and $125.
SOL is currently around $118.
That puts the $125 area particularly close to the current market.
Don't treat options expiry as a guaranteed directional signal.
Instead, watch how price behaves as liquidity around these levels changes.Tonight's group teaching process post sharing.
This time, the Bitcoin $BTC trend is judged through the resistance of the trading system and the large structure. Many people can't find a basis for making trades here, and there are various opinions on where the resistance is. I hope this article will be helpful to you.
This method has traces of Chan theory, considered a kind of Chan theory, along with some classical retracement analysis.
(This type of analysis often merges trends and better follows the large structure, which is also the reason for the analysis below.)
First, let's look at the main resistance zone, see Figure 3. My current target is to try an extremely small entry range around 81800, with a stop loss of about 400.
Let's look at the large structure for the reason. We can see that we merge small trends into a large trend, which fits the situation from both the 4-hour level and the daily chart (Figures 1 and 2). At this time, the front of the blue line is the highest point, and then the market progresses on the large structure, only reaching the second highest point. In the recent days' large structure, the bulls are in a slightly weak phase.
This also fits pure naked K analysis. After the initial large bullish candle on the 4-hour chart in Figure 1, several bullish candles successively shorten, then the bears test, bulls counterattack, then the pullback is still resisted, followed by bears gaining strength.
Note that currently, the weekly large structure and the daily overall still favor the bulls, so this is viewed as a retracement to find a reliable support for going long.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ $XAU
The market slightly lifted but lacked follow-through, shorted midway at 4295, stopped at 75, 20 points, 4000-dollar support zone! Last fall, an old classmate pulled me into a group chat.
Every day someone posted screenshots,
saying how much they earned today.
I kept watching and got itchy hands,
secretly bought some $BTC.
Right after buying, it started to drop.
During that time, I even smoked less.
At night, lying in bed, I kept wanting to check my phone.
After nearly three months of endurance,
I finally broke even.
Quickly sold it,
made enough for a hotpot meal.
I became more sensible.
Now I only use spare money to buy $ETH.
If it drops, I don’t add more.
If it rises, I don’t chase.
The calls in the group,
I treat them like comedy.
If they were really that accurate,
I’d be quietly making money myself.
I also tried $SOL,
it’s really fast,
my heart couldn’t keep up.
Held it for two days and sold.
Sleep well at night.
This stuff,
playing with spare money is fine.
Borrowing money to rush in is a trap.
Don’t always think about getting rich overnight.
First, think about what to do if you lose everything.
I rarely check the market now.
Work when I should work,
sleep when I should sleep.
Earnings are luck,
losses are tuition fees.
Living steadily is better than anything else.#财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
#Muse加速扩张，MetaAI投入或迎来变现 Let's take a look at Bitcoin. The current price is about 83,890. Overall, there were mixed gains and losses today, while Bitcoin dropped slightly, and in the past 24 hours, it fluctuated between 83,400 and 85,300. Looking at the daily chart, it's still a pullback and correction after a previous rally, without a new direction. There are no significant signals here, so my advice is to keep observing and avoid trading lightly. The overall direction framework hasn't changed: to say this rally is over, you should look for a real break below 74,000. Before that, don't go short; For long positions, keep ambushing around 78,000 or 80,000, enter when the price returns there, and set your stop loss together. The current price is in the middle, so don't chase long or rush to short. A pullback itself isn't scary; what's scary is constantly going in and out where there's no signal, getting repeatedly washed out until your mindset collapses. No signal, staying still is also a form of operation. Today, the market performed better with altcoins—Solana, Ripple, and Dogecoin all rebounded, while Bitcoin was actually taking a break. This doesn't mean Bitcoin is weakening; it's more like capital is rotating; But it doesn't mean it will catch up soon. Just watch the position and don't rush to chase the big pie just because the altcoins are rising. On the chip side, the latest US spot Bitcoin ETF was finalized on September 24, with a net inflow of about $190 million, marking the sixth consecutive trading day of inflows; On September 25, the US East Asian market hasn't finished closing yet, so the numbers aren't out yet, so let's not force it for now. On the contract side, OKX is listing Bitcoin YongWhen looking at the rebound, don't just focus on how many points it has risen; first see who is leading the rally and whether volume is supporting it.
Today $SOL led the rebound with over a 4% gain, $ETH followed with a 1% rise, but $BTC basically moved sideways — this is not a healthy broad rally, it's capital searching for elasticity in altcoins while the leaders haven't taken over. Be especially cautious with rebounds on low volume; a rebound without volume support is mostly just bears catching their breath, not a trend reversal.
My principle is simple: if the rebound structure isn't confirmed, I don't change direction. Wait for it to gain volume and hold steady before talking about a reversal. Do you think this wave is a rebound grab or a catch of a falling knife?This wave of $SOL is rising a bit slowly, moving a small step each day, just like clocking in for work. I checked this morning, it was green, but just a tiny bit green.
Many people dislike the slow pace and grumble while switching to chase coins with explosive gains. I’m not switching. When it’s really time to sell, the market won’t look like this; there will be volume spikes, sharp rallies, screens full of profit-taking posts, and retail investors lining up to buy. This slow grind means chips are slowly changing hands, from those who can’t hold to those who can. No one is dumping large amounts downward, which is a good thing.
A few years ago, I used to chase the sharp rallies, feeling pumped like I was on a rocket. But I always ended up standing on the peak, getting cut right before dawn. Later, I learned to be smarter and only go for these slow grinds. The rise is slow, but every bit of profit is kept.
Grinding markets test patience more than vision. The candlestick charts look boring, but chips are changing hands daily, making the base stronger and stronger. Those eager to make quick money have mostly left; those remaining plan to hold for a while. Selling pressure is getting lighter, making the subsequent rise easier.
For those itching to do T trading, a word of advice: in grinding markets, nine times out of ten, you’ll lose chips on the wrong trade, gaining a little but losing a big position.
$SOL is currently in this kind of grinding phase. When the day comes with volume surges and big bullish candles, and screens are full of profit posts, then it’s not too late to talk about selling. For now, holding is better than anything else.$ENA missed out! Frustrating!! I studied it a while ago and even mentioned in a post that $ENA might perform well later, but I still couldn't make up my mind to go long and missed this rapid surge. Looking back now, it has already risen 300% from the bottom, and the bullish momentum is still strong. The outlook remains optimistic, but the current cost-performance ratio isn't as good, and chasing the high risks getting stuck. The key factor for whether it can continue to rise will depend on whether there is any positive news soon, but being stuck in this awkward position of neither high nor low is really a bit uncomfortable! WAY Tracking｜Yesterday observed support at 1,500, ZEC has returned to 1,590 today: Is it time to chase now?
Yesterday I mentioned that although the news around ZEC is mostly positive, the real key is not to rush in but to see if anyone is willing to support around 1,500 on the pullback.
The lowest point today was about 1,491, without a direct collapse, then it rebounded back to around 1,590. This indicates initial buying interest around 1,500 and confirms the direction observed yesterday.
But this does not mean it’s safe to chase longs now.
ZEC’s intraday volatility remains high, with resistance in the short term around 1,600–1,620. If it breaks above but cannot hold, it’s easy to see another spike and drop; plus, BTC is still consolidating around 83,800, so even if ZEC is strong, it’s hard to be completely unaffected by the overall market.
I will be watching two scenarios next:
🟢 After a pullback to 1,530–1,550, it holds and then strengthens again.
🟡 Breaks through 1,620 and does not immediately fall back, confirming resistance has turned into support.
If it falls below 1,500 and the rebound is weak, be cautious that yesterday’s support was just a short-term bounce.
Tonight at 20:30 there is the US durable goods orders report, and at 22:00 consumer confidence and inflation expectations data. Before the data release, rather than chasing prices in the middle of the range, it’s better to wait for the market to show a clear direction.
Will you wait for a pullback, wait for a breakout, or want to chase now?
The above is market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
#ZEC #BTC #WAY追蹤 #交易風控 #OKXToday's market is honestly a bit chaotic, with small market caps rising fiercely each time, but whether you can catch it is another matter. $QI 24h +201.2%, doubling in one day. I don't follow this trend; it's a typical capital market rhythm. Entering is just a sedan chair for those ahead and just watching the show. $PHA 24h +45.0%. The privacy track has been resurfaced for speculation again, rising quite quickly. But these old coins suddenly rioting are mostly news-driven, so be cautious when chasing highs. $ARK 24h +25.2%. This stock has been dormant for a long time. Suddenly pulling like this seems like oversold rebound and riding the hot topic. Sustainability questionable, don't get carried away. $XPL 24h +19.8%, new faces are starting to attract capital, the rise isn't exaggerated, can be kept under observation, but don't rush in. $QNT 24h +17.5%, established cross-chain concept, relatively steady, this kind of rally is more solid, worth checking on on pullbacks. $CHIP 24h +16.8%, small coins follow the trend, volume is average, typical sector rotation final stock, I won't touch it. $NEAR It's on the CoinGecko trend leaderboard. The public chain veteran has been active quite recently, the hype is back but the price hasn't moved much, worth watching. $EDEL Also on the trend leaderboard, new projects are surging in popularity. For those just starting out, beware of selling first-hand or not be a buyer. $ONDO Trending leaderboards are regulars; RWA narratives have always had buyers, fundamentals are decent, pullbacks are opportunities, not risks $BPTonight, the USD/JPY fell below 157, and the three major US stock indices opened higher. The comment section is once again shouting "risk-on is back, $BTC is about to take off." For those who play cards, they are most wary of such a one-day tailwind.
My bearish foundation these past two days has never been a certain candlestick, but the interest rate environment: the 10-year US Treasury yield is still above 5%, and money is flowing into the "risk-free 5%". A one-day dollar pullback and stock market rally cannot change this underlying level.
What really needs attention is not whether it rose today, but when interest rates will truly turn around. Until then, I only regard the rebound as a rebound. What do you think, is this a reversal or just a breather? At 4 PM today (UTC 08:00), $15.9 billion worth of Bitcoin options on Deribit have officially settled (articles 96, 99, 101 have detailed analyses of the pre-expiry structure). The real question now is: after options expiry, how does BTC usually move? First, historical data provides clear statistical patterns. The official knowledge base entry "Impact of Bitcoin Options Settlement Day on Price" offers key data: after settlement, hedging pressure is released, the market experiences "Gamma release," and prices revert to their original trend or fundamental drivers, with short-term disturbances typically absorbed within 3-5 trading days. More importantly, there is a directional pattern: when call options dominate, the probability of a post-settlement rise is about 63%; when put options dominate, the probability of a decline is about 58%. In a bull market, large settlements tend to continue the upward trend, while during consolidation or correction phases, short-term declines may occur but rarely change the medium- to long-term trend. The structure of this expiry is: call/put ratio 0.69 (call dominant), 55% of call options are in-the-money, and the max pain point at 75,000 is far below the current price of 84,000+ — according to historical patterns, the probability of a post-settlement rise is about 63%. But there is an important premise: "in a bull market." What stage is BTC currently in? It has rebounded from the June low of 58,525 to 87,381 (+49%), just broke above the 50-week moving average (confirmed by Galaxy Research), and Tom Lee declared "the bull market has arrived" (article 99) — if the market accepts the "bull market" characterization, then 63%If only every trade could be profitable… Three trades. Three completely different outcomes: One took profit. One is being held stubbornly. And one is still sitting deep in the abyss. $ETH short: I admit defeat. Entered at 2696, closed at 2676, locking in +67% / +18U. After three consecutive short trades, this time I finally chose to take the profit. With 100x full position, the profit isn’t huge—barely enough for a hotpot meal. 😂 But profit that’s actually in your pocket is still profit. Then I already rehearsed with this 1099-DA thing last year in advance.
At the time, I was quite optimistic: the exchange reports income, I just fill in the cost basis on my side, and the profit and loss would automatically come out, saving a lot of trouble.
But the result was, the form only showed the sale amount, and the cost column was left blank.
I spent the whole night going through hundreds of transaction records—gas fees, cross-chain, airdrops, swaps—I had to reconcile everything myself, one by one.
The IRS said brokers won’t report cost basis until 2026, which means for the next two tax seasons, retail investors still have to act as their own market makers and do their own bookkeeping.
The lesson is: don’t expect the platform to calculate everything clearly for you; in the end, you have to handle all the on-chain stuff yourself.
Let’s see if next year’s form really adds a cost column.
#美股探索代币化与全天候交易 $HYPE Last summer, my cousin pulled me into a group chat.
Every day, someone was posting profit screenshots.
I kept watching and got itchy hands.
Secretly bought some $BTC.
After buying, it started to drop.
During that time, I even quit milk tea.
Lying in bed at night, I kept wanting to check my phone.
Later, after almost two months of endurance,
I finally broke even.
Quickly sold it off,
made enough for a spicy hot pot meal.
I became clear-headed.
Now I only use spare money to buy $ETH.
If it drops, I don’t add more.
If it rises, I don’t chase.
The calls in the group,
I treat them like comedy.
If they were really that accurate,
I’d have quietly made a fortune myself.
I also tried $SOL,
it’s really fast,
my heart couldn’t keep up.
Held it for two days and sold.
Sleep well at night.
This stuff,
playing with spare money is fine.
Borrowing money to rush in is a trap.
Don’t always think about getting rich overnight.
First, think about what to do if you lose it all.
I rarely check the market now.
Work when I should work,
sleep when I should sleep.
Profits are luck,
losses are tuition fees.
Living steadily is better than anything else.#财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
#Muse加速扩张，MetaAI投入或迎来变现 One important distinction: the $API3 50M figure appears to be rounded/estimated. Using the entry prices × quantities you provided gives roughly $312.6M of entry notional, before considering current mark price, margin, fees, or funding.
What I would watch
ETH: $2Z ,337 short → liquidation around $4,000. That's roughly +71% from entry.
BTC: $74,443 short → liquidation around $146,000. That's roughly +96% from entry.#FedHikesBTCResilience #CostcoBeatsMicronNext #USTreasuryYieldsRise Early this morning, an event even more significant than BTC option expiration was unfolding in the bond market—but it was barely noticed by the crypto community. First, the yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury hit 5.446%, the highest level since June 2004. Today's headlines reprinted the global market report confirming this data: the 20-year yield rose to 5.560% (+0.71%), the 10-year to 5.195% (+0.62%), and the 5-year to 5.066% (+0.78%). The entire U.S. Treasury yield curve is simultaneously rising to levels not seen in 20 years. What is even more concerning is that Philadelphia Fed President Paulson publicly stated today (September 25) that "if the economy moves as expected, the Fed may need to raise rates further to push inflation back to the 2% target." "This is the second FOMC member to clearly signal a rate hike within a week, following Williams (Section 93). Paulson, a voting FOMC member for 2026, supports last week's 25 basis point rate hike and believes "the risk balance has shifted against the backdrop of persistently high inflation and limited progress in the decline." CME FedWatch now shows a nearly 75% probability of a rate hike in October. Second, Japan's government bond market is simultaneously "collapsing." 21 Economic Net reported today: Japan's 10-year government bond yield once rose to 3.115%, hitting a 30-year and one-month high since August 1996. Japan's Kyodo News pointed out that this was due to rising yields on long-term U.S. government bonds, which has led to market concernsDuring last year's bull market, I lost over 50,000 trading SOL. My wife couldn't stand the endless daily arguments, and in the end, we got divorced. Today, looking at my holdings again: IP: loss of 8,000 CORE: loss of 8,000 CFX: loss of 10,000 SOL: lost another 58,500 Staying up late every night watching the market, the only two words on my mind were: break even. But unexpectedly, the hole in my losses just kept getting bigger. I once thought I was trading, but in reality, I was gambling with my life. Because I was unwilling to accept the losses that had already happened, trapped by sunk costs, I ended up ruining my own life. Brothers, please don't follow my old path! High leverage and stubbornly holding losing positions will only drag you step by step into the abyss. Now, I just want to find a stable night shift job, earn money steadily, and slowly pay off the debts I owe. Money lost can be earned back slowly, and life can start over. Living is more important than anything. $BTC $SOL #EarningsObserver: Costco's Q4 earnings report is about to be released9.25 $BTC Data Overview
Long and short positions both suffer! Before the $15.6 billion options expiration, the 84,000 defense line repeatedly changed hands.
Current price around 84,600-85,200 USDT, 24h increase about +0.3%~+2.0%, intraday dipped to 82,945 before a V-shaped rebound, with a high point reaching 85,239. 24h total network liquidations about $335 million, bulls account for 63% ($213 million), shorts liquidated $122 million, both sides suffered large-scale liquidations, with 82,597 people liquidated.
Macro pressure continues to intensify. The 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 5.207%, the 30-year touched 5.47%, both hitting multi-year highs, with the October rate hike probability rising to 67.5%-75%. Multiple Federal Reserve officials collectively hawkish overnight.
ETF net inflows for 6 consecutive days. On September 24, net inflow was $190.7 million, IBIT led with $162.6 million, totaling about $2.84 billion over 6 days. Binance single-day net outflow exceeded 13,800 BTC, platform reserves dropped from 705,000 to 685,000 BTC in 4 days.
Today's focus: $15.6 billion options expiration. About 182,000 contracts settle today at 8:00 UTC, put/call ratio 0.71, maximum pain point at 76,000. Coinglass shows that breaking above 88,267 triggers short liquidation intensity of $1.401 billion; falling below 80,259 triggers long liquidation intensity of $1.345 billion.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #Muse accelerates expansion, MetaAI investment may usher in monetization. Folks, Meta's moves at the Connect conference are no longer just about hyping the AI concept; they are genuinely paving the way to monetize AI.
Let's first look at what they've done. They launched the standalone AI device Muse Charm, integrated Muse into smart glasses, and added service connections with retail giants like Walmart, Best Buy, and Gap. JPMorgan directly stated that Muse has the potential to become the most widely used consumer AI application after ChatGPT. Driven by this expectation, Meta's stock price has strengthened significantly since September, with its market value approaching $2 trillion.
Let me translate the core logic behind this for you. Previously, people worried that Meta's AI efforts were a bottomless money pit. Now, by combining hardware and services, they've turned the AI Agent into an entry point that helps you shop. You say a command to the glasses or small device, and it places an order for you at Walmart. This is no longer just a chat tool; it directly links traffic and transactions.
But don't just look at the thief eating the meat and ignore the thief getting hit. The market has already priced in very high expectations for Meta's AI investment returns, so the risk of overvaluation is right in front of us. The most critical next step is whether the Muse ecosystem can truly generate solid revenue through subscription fees or transaction commissions. Selling hardware alone cannot support a $2 trillion valuation.
This also reflects on our crypto circle. The deep integration of AI and consumer hardwareEarnings Observer: Walmart's Results Released, Oracle Takes Over
Walmart's earnings report laid out the resilience of U.S. retail on the table. Total revenue reached 172 billion, up 6.8%, e-commerce business grew by 22%, and gross margin also improved. People are still spending, just more selectively; inflation stickiness won't dissipate quickly, so the Fed's rate cut pace will be delayed, and BTC will remain trapped in the interest rate expectations cage in the short term.
Next week is Oracle's turn. It tests another line: whether cloud infrastructure and AI orders can continue to translate into revenue. Last quarter, Oracle grew by 4%, Microsoft Cloud by 3%, and the cloud computing sector has already priced in optimistic sentiment. If Oracle's earnings exceed expectations and the AI infrastructure narrative continues to heat up, the computing power and electricity logic behind BTC will also benefit. If it falls short, tech stocks will be pressured, and BTC won't escape the correlation.
Currently, BTC is tugging around 92,000, with dense selling pressure between 95,000 and 96,000 above, and 90,000 as a short-term defense line below. Walmart proved consumption hasn't collapsed, implying a high probability the Fed will hold steady in November, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains pressured above 4.8%. In this environment, it's difficult for BTC to break out into a one-sided trend. Oracle's earnings report is the next trigger point, but don't rush to bet before the data lands. Wait for the direction to become clear before making a move. $BTC $ETH $SOL
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒