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The more BTC falls, the more he buys: a mysterious whale has spent nearly $200 million in 20 days, with a cost basis at $78,966
On September 24, BTC continued to decline, but an interesting operation by a large on-chain holder caught attention: while others sell to escape the drop, he keeps buying.
According to monitoring, the whale marked as bc1qdp bought another 536.93 BTC about 6 hours ago, worth approximately $45.28 million. More importantly, this is not a spontaneous bottom-fishing move. Over the past 20 days, this address has accumulated 2,460 BTC, investing about $194.3 million, with an average purchase cost around $78,966.
In other words, the whale’s recent strategy is very simple: when BTC pulls back, he continues to add to his position. The nearly $200 million cumulative buying power at least indicates that this address has not changed its position direction due to short-term declines.
The bullish logic here is worth noting. If BTC later climbs back to around the whale’s average cost basis near $78,966, it means this nearly $200 million worth of chips returns to profitability. Meanwhile, if similar large addresses continue to accumulate on dips on-chain, market selling pressure will weaken again, making this pullback easier to interpret as chip rotation rather than a complete trend reversal to bearish. Especially with sustained large spot buying support, the price floor will be more strongly supported.OKXOrbitTopics#NasdaqHitsRecordHigh
When I use my hand shovel to peel away the latest layer of sedimented dust on the strata, what is revealed is nothing but the same bone relic that had rotted and stunk two hundred years ago.
Before me, $TSLA is undergoing violent shocks triggered by the so-called orbital topics, and there is no need to use carbon-14 dating to verify it; the anxiety and greed permeating the air perfectly match the stratigraphic profile just before the collapse of the Panama Canal boom in late 19th century France.
Back then, Ferdinand de Lesseps used the grand industrial vision of connecting two oceans to sweep up all the savings of the Parisian middle class. The fervent crowd queued overnight in front of the stock exchange, firmly believing they were buying a ticket to a new era with money. However, yellow fever in the tropical jungle, bottomless engineering budgets, and the bubble of political-business collusion ultimately turned what was hailed as humanity's greatest technological expedition into a historic landslide burying hundreds of thousands.
Under the sun, there is nothing new; the first law of stratigraphy is the law of superposition—layers of rapid rises and falls always cycle and cover each other in the same periods.
Today, the collective frenzy around cutting-edge technological visions and $TSLA once again blurs the fault line between a true industrial revolution and classic herd speculative mania. The market treats grand narratives about the future as chips that can be bet and cashed in at any time, and retail investors blindly flock to every concept pit exquisitely packaged by public opinion, just like those commoners who pawned their assets to buy canal bonds back then.
The human weaknesses in capital markets are more stubborn and harder to weather than any ancient Egyptian pharaoh's tomb. When the realization curve of technological concepts lags far behind the leverage slope of speculation, the formation of a fault zone is only a matter of time.
Every gold rush frenzy ultimately leaves behind in historical records only a few cold casualty numbers and a ground full of unclaimed broken pottery shards.
That high wall built with greed has long been riddled with structurally weathered cracks at its foundation; its collapse is merely waiting for the first breeze to blow.🔍The first time I bought $BTC was waiting outside a convenience store for oden.
The phone screen reflected, and I squinted to tap confirm.
My hands were sweating after buying.
On the way home, I kept feeling like people were watching me.
But who cares, really?
That night I tossed and turned, unable to sleep.
It went up five dollars and I wanted to laugh.
It dropped two dollars and I cursed my own greed.
Later at work, I was distracted.
Secretly checking my phone during meetings.
When the boss asked what I was doing,
I said checking the time,
but I was actually watching the market.
That period was really crazy.
Then I got some $ETH.
Heard people say it’s stable.
I never really understood where the stability was.
The sideways market was the hardest.
Like water that never boils.
Selling felt like missing out.
Holding felt like risking a drop.
Paid quite a bit in fees.
People in the group kept shouting trade calls every day.
I followed a few times,
only to buy high or sell low.
Slowly I got tired of following.
There was also $SOL that left a deep impression.
It rose so fast it was scary.
It dropped without reason.
That time I lost painfully.
Lying in bed staring at the ceiling,
thinking for a long time.
Finally, I turned off leverage.
Only play with spare money.
No borrowing, no all-in.
Smaller positions.
Be more normal.
Now when others shout trade calls, I just watch.
When the group shows profits, I just smile.
Use cold wallets when needed.
Write down seed phrases on paper and hide them well.
When family asks if I made money,
I say I’m still learning.
Don’t get cocky when winning.
Don’t borrow when losing.
No more staring at the market all day.
Just dollar-cost average and leave it there.
Check news when free.
If busy, just play dead.
No magic in this game.
Surviving is already good.
Holding on is a skill.
Being empty-handed is also a skill.
Don’t always think about turning it all around in one shot.
First think about not getting wiped out in one wave.
Treat lost money as tuition.
Don’t waste what you earn.
That’s roughly the lesson learned. #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布
#美债收益率全面走高，高利率为何难降？ The noisiest topic in the prediction market window isn't the transaction volume, but the valuation benchmark being redrawn: Fortune cited a lengthy initial report from PitchBook, which estimates Kalshi's enterprise value at about $30.4 billion in the baseline scenario, with a weak-to-strong range roughly between $22.8 billion and $42.1 billion; compared to its May funding valuation of about $22 billion, the market is debating "which bracket to watch next." The same report projects 2030 revenue and adjusted profit at approximately $6.4 billion and $3.7 billion respectively, but also plainly states the biggest variable—the sports-related event fees account for about 69.9%, and including multi-leg/combination products could reach about 82.4%, while state lawsuits and Supreme Court paths remain unresolved. The optimistic interpretation sees this as "a two-headed pattern established, with third parties only picking up scraps"; the cautious view reminds us that valuation models rely on assumptions, not realized cash flows. Volume ≠ pricing power. It might also be that this is just a narrative anchor amplified when research institutions initiate coverage, and it's still uncertain whether the next window will focus more on regulatory rulings or continue revolving around the IPO timetable. For now, note "PitchBook, $30.4 billion baseline, sports fee proportion risk." If subsequent financial disclosures or named regulatory conclusions emerge, comparing against this will be more grounded.US spot Bitcoin ETFs are rapidly repairing the previous yearly funding gap of about $5.7 billion. Recently, institutional funds have clearly flowed back, with net inflows exceeding $1.7 billion on September 21 and 22, with a single-day peak close to $1 billion. But there is another side worth noting: as BTC rebounded sharply from its August low, some early holders began to cash in profits. Data shows that after BTC briefly broke through $87,000, it pulled back, while about 47,600 BTC were transferred to exchanges, indicating that profit-taking is hedged against ETF buying. So the current issue is not "whether there is capital entering the market," but rather: 💰 Can new ETF demand continue to absorb selling pressure? 📈 Can institutional inflows maintain continuity? ⚠️ Will profit-taking positions increase further? Capital inflows are improving, but whether prices can continue to rise still depends on the balance between net ETF inflows + spot selling pressure + leveraged positions. #BTC #Bitcoin #BitcoinETF #CryptoMarket #BTCFlow #CryptoNews NFA. DYOR.BTC's pullback is a technical correction under macro pressure, not the end of the story.
The rotation signal light is indeed on, but the engine hasn't fully ignited yet.
The two things to really watch next are:
→ Whether ETH and SOL can take over from BTC to form a synchronized breakout
→ When the knife hanging over our heads—the US Treasury yield—will be pulled back
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ $ONE continues to short! The average cost for the bulls is around 0.0028505, while the current price has been suppressed near 0.0022. The long positions worth 4.21 million U are directly facing an unrealized loss of over 810,000 U, with the profit ratio plummeting to only 27.6%.
This means there is already a massive amount of trapped positions overhead. Even if the 'dog whales' kindly push the price up a bit, what they will face is not chasing funds but a group of holders eagerly waiting to break even and dump their chips. The closer to the bulls' cost zone, the heavier the selling pressure, like a mountain pressing down.
Seeing such a huge trapped position hanging overhead, going long now is pure suicide. The resistance to lifting the price up is far greater than the momentum to smash it down. The short positions are already set; let's follow the path of least resistance and see when these trapped holders can't hold on and start cutting losses!9.24｜BTC & ETH Market Notes 📊 My current market framework remains cautious in the short run, while the broader structure is still being monitored from a longer-term perspective. The recent weakness appears to have come alongside pressure across risk assets, with movements in energy markets and technology stocks adding to the volatility. At the same time, ETF flows have not yet shown the kind of persistent acceleration that would provide a strong fresh catalyst. For BTC, I’m watching the $84,200Doubao layoffs? Don't rush to criticize.
I have three questions.
First, was half the staff really cut? No. The entire team is less than 50 people, and this adjustment involved 11, of which 3 left. The remaining 8 just switched teams and are still working on the conversational experience.
Second, why did the rumors spread so wildly? Because the phrase "Doubao marginalized" is much more sensational than "organizational adjustment."
Third, what does this have to do with the crypto world? Honestly, not much. But emotions are contagious; whenever there's a stir in AI narratives, related concepts tend to shake first.
My anger isn't at Doubao, but at how a simple internal adjustment can be twisted into the whole team disappearing.
In the short term, such news basically has no direct impact on the market—it's pure emotional noise.
If you want to wait for signals, watch for solid model updates or product moves later. If none come, just pretend it never happened.
#AI模型集体降价，竞争转向成本
#特朗普改称超级智能，AI监管分歧升级 $HYPE Wang Yi has already sacrificed pieces and made his move, while the opponent is still counting pieces — this is betting the entire calculation load of the game.
On September 22, GPT-6’s Gemini and Claude’s new queen debuted simultaneously, announcing a shift from "who has more material" to "who has cheaper moves." Prices halved, costs cut by another 40%, this isn’t a sale; it’s pushing the time cost per move to a level the opponent can’t bear in the endgame. Whoever understands this first gains the initiative.
What I fear most on the board isn’t a fierce attack, but the opponent calculating every move cheaper than me. When reasoning costs are halved, it’s like all the costs of moving rooks, knights, and bishops are reduced — what used to take three minutes per move now takes one and a half. The rhythm of the game changes; you can open more games, play with more people simultaneously, and maintain more agents calculating variations for you. Before the blockade lines close, the cost is the first sharp blade to cut through.
An even sharper move lies behind: turning computing power itself into transferable rights, settling with stablecoins, linking data, services, and computing power into a complete token exchange chain. This isn’t buying pieces; it’s buying the copyright to the game’s opening theory. What you want isn’t just winning one more game today, but having your variation library indispensable in all openings three years from now.
Thus, a brutal exchange appears in the midgame: prices drop, usage rises, and demand for chips, storage, cloud, and data centers is actually fed more. On the surface, it looks like giving away pieces, but in reality, it’s replacing the opponent’s defensive structure. True masters never fear giving up pieces — what they fear is giving up pieces without gaining any space.
But don’t rush to cheer. Cheaper moves bring a flood of low-quality plays; noise drowns out the signal. When everyone can move in the same second, the winning move depends on who can filter out bad moves and who can maintain pawn structure. The real killer move is never the price war itself, but who remains standing after the price war and who still holds that pawn in the endgame that can promote.
This game has now entered the most dangerous midgame piece exchange phase: seemingly calm, but every diagonal hides exchanges. The apparent explosion in calculation only truly depends on one thing — whether your formation can maintain structure amid the flood of collapsing costs.
Those still counting pieces will be judged lost before the endgame arrives. #aimodelscutcostsBitcoin has risen for three consecutive months, breaking the bear market record. In previous bear markets (2014/2018/2022), Bitcoin only had 3 months with positive gains in the first 9 months, but this year it has risen for 5 months and only 4 months had negative gains. This hardly seems like a bear market anymore.$BTC $ETH $SOL
The largest options contract expiration of 2026 is approaching (9/25), about $15B in $BTC options at Max pain ~>$75K. Call positions dominate with ~$9B (Put ~$6B) with Call strikes at $85K -> $100K. Major resistance for $BTC is around ~>$87K, good support at ~>$83,800 - $84,100. If this level holds after expiration, $BTC will move straight up to $90K with significantly reduced resistance volume compared to before.
☆ THERE IS NO BASIS FOR A $BTC <$80K SCENARIO WHEN EXPIRATION OCCURS
#BTCPullbackAltRotation #OKXTraderVoices $BTC is slightly bearish in the short term; I expect a pullback to around 80000 in the next 7 days.
Legend has it that in 1929, when old Kennedy was shining shoes, even the shoeshine boys were recommending stocks to him. He went home and liquidated all his holdings, avoiding the big crash. This is the "shoeshine boy theory": when even those least concerned about the market are shouting for a rise, the new money to take over is almost exhausted.
Look at the current temperature: nearly a 40% increase over the past 90 days, from just over 60,000 three months ago; the fear and greed index is at 71, and a couple of days ago it reached an extreme greed level of 78. Within 24 hours, the price has already fallen from 86800 to 84150.
But the funding rate is only 0.0077%, and leverage is not overheated, so I see this as a pullback, not a crash.
Observation point: can 80000 hold?
Bullish condition: volume surge and reclaiming 87400 (90-day high).
Has the shoeshine boy appeared around you?$SOL SOL Market Brief
Intraday retraced to 112.78 to find support, briefly broke through 116.08 before pulling back, currently priced at 115.50, representing a recovery rebound after a sharp drop. There is a significant accumulation of previous trapped positions above, so any upward surge will trigger selling pressure.
The previous high of 119.69 is a strong resistance, with the first short-term hurdle at 116.08. The support tested today is at 112.78, with a critical defense level at 110. Only by holding above 115 can it continue to test higher levels; if it falls below 112.78 again, it will return to a correction and consolidation phase.
This rebound is driven by low-level bottom-fishing capital entering the market. The recent sharp drop cleared many high-leverage positions, but market bullish confidence has not fully recovered. Altcoin trends depend on Bitcoin's overall market; without strength in the main market, it is difficult for altcoins to stage an independent major rebound. Currently, it remains in a phase of position exchange.
In practice, do not rush to chase highs just because of a rebound. Observe several candlesticks to assess the selling pressure above. Recently, the market has been volatile with frequent spikes. Keep leverage low, set stop-loss points in advance, and avoid stubbornly holding losing positions. I just slammed a set of construction drawings for a seven-story steel structure core tube onto the table—not because the drawings were wrong, but because the foundation's curing period hasn't ended yet, and the client is already pushing to cap the building. This is the real situation of tokenized US stocks right now: the CFTC chairman is calling to prepare for large-scale tokenization, the NYSE immediately signed a letter of intent with a digital asset platform to study on-chain mapping of US stocks and ETFs, aiming for 24/7 all-year-round trading. The construction site is bustling with noise, but the concrete grade of the load-bearing columns, the seismic resistance level, and whether fire evacuation routes are reserved—all remain undisclosed.
Let's first talk about this "24/7 nonstop trading" demand. As someone who deals with building codes daily, I tell you, a building is habitable not because its doors are always open, but because its structural system has undergone full verification for static load, dynamic load, wind load, and seismic load. The traditional exchange's opening and closing essentially provide the market with intervals for settlement and collateral management. Removing this interval is like eliminating all expansion joints and dampers in a supertall building, forcing it to endure full wind pressure at all times. Without a supporting instant settlement layer and on-chain collateral management framework, this "never-closing" trading hall is like a plain concrete column without stirrups—looks straight but breaks with a single cut.
Next, consider asset classification. The chairman said crypto and precious metals suit continuous trading, but rules must vary by asset. Translated into building terms: residential, commercial, and industrial buildings cannot share the same foundation depth and fire zoning plans. Tokenizing US equity certificates involves dividends, voting rights, corporate actions, and securities law jurisdiction—this is the load path of the main structure; turning them into divisible, collateralizable, and combinable on-chain modules is the curtain wall system's play. You can't replace beam-column connection details with curtain wall node samples—that's a matter of life and death.
The linkage of tokenized US stocks like $xNFLX currently looks more like a model room—lighting is beautiful, soft furnishings are in place, but whether the plumbing and electrical lines are connected and property rights can be transferred depends on subsequent construction approvals. The cooperation between the New York Stock Exchange and the digital asset platform is currently only at the "exploration" and "research" stage, i.e., the scheme design phase, not even preliminary design. Product, regulatory framework, and timeline are all undisclosed, meaning this building hasn't even obtained a land use planning permit.
What truly determines whether tokenized stocks can stand up is never the trading hours brochure but three things: the load-bearing capacity of the settlement layer, the compliant foundation across jurisdictions, and the shear strength of collateral under extreme market conditions. Any corner cut, and the whole building becomes unsafe.
I've seen too many projects with stunning renderings but sloppy structural drawings. This time, the tokenization of US stocks has grand drawings, but I'm still waiting for the geotechnical survey report. #tokenizedstocks24/7NIL current price is 0.14253, entering a consolidation zone after a rally. RSI is approaching overbought, MACD bearish divergence has appeared, moving averages are still supporting the price, but bullish momentum is weakening. The liquidation map is clear: a large amount of long liquidations are stacked above 0.1443, while short liquidations below 0.1378 are pitifully few. This means the upside is a minefield, and the downside is thin ice.
Just finished my shift, the tea in my thermos is still hot, so I'll focus on the market and sort out my positions first.
Key resistance is at 0.1443; a breakout requires volume, otherwise it's a false move. The short-term defense line is at 0.1378; if broken, profit-taking will accelerate, possibly pushing directly to 0.133.
In terms of operation, do not chase longs at the current price. Wait for a pullback to the 0.1385 to 0.1395 range to lightly buy longs, with a stop loss at 0.1368, first take-profit target at 0.1440, second target at 0.1475. If volume breaks below 0.1378 directly, reverse to short, enter at 0.1375, stop loss at 0.1402, take profit at 0.1320.
BTC is hovering around 83000, 82500 is strong support; if BTC is unstable, altcoins can't expect to be safe. Shorts covered on XRP pulled a rally, but sustainability is questionable. Control overall position size well, don't get carried away.
For this NIL trade, reduce positions near resistance; if broken, accept it and don't hold the position.
$NIL
#美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？
@OKX星球 Brief Market Review of ZEC
Intraday dipped to 1477 to find support, then rebounded sharply to 1540, current price 1530. After a big drop, it has entered a recovery phase, but there is still considerable selling pressure from trapped positions above, so selling pressure occasionally emerges on the rebound.
The previous high of 1680 remains a strong resistance, with the first short-term hurdle at 1560. The 1477 level is the newly tested support today, and the critical lifeline is at 1430. Only by holding above 1530 can it continue to test higher; if it falls below 1477 again, it will re-enter a correction phase.
This wave is a rebound fueled by capital replenishment after a sharp drop. The recent plunge wiped out a large batch of chasing positions, but whales holding spot assets may sell at any time, so the market foundation is not stable. The order book is shallow, and the price movement is entirely dependent on Bitcoin's overall market sentiment; if the market weakens, it can easily plunge again. Currently, it is in a phase of choppy consolidation with bulls and bears tugging back and forth.
In practice, never rush to chase the rebound. Watch several candlesticks and observe whether the selling pressure above is heavy. This coin experiences very violent fluctuations, and spikes are common. Keep leverage as low as possible, plan stop-loss points in advance, and avoid stubbornly holding losing positions. $PONS Many people see the news about Robinhood CEO liquidating his shares and assume the founder is cashing out and selling the company, but in fact, he still holds
• Class B: 48,035,406 shares
• Class A: directly holds 0 shares
• Additionally, indirectly holds 6,907 Class A shares through a Living Trust
Major disclosed sales in the past year:
2025/10/1: 750,000 shares
2026/1/5: 375,000 shares
2026/4/6: 375,000 shares
2026/7/6: 375,000 shares
2026/9/21: 259,166 shares
Total: 2,134,166 shares.
After the latest transaction, he still holds about **48.035 million Class B shares**.
So, the statement "Robinhood CEO has basically sold off all his shares" is not accurate.
A more accurate statement is:
**He has basically cleared out his directly held Class A shares but still holds about 48 million Class B shares.** In other words, out of over 40 million shares, only a little over 2 million shares have been sold, which is a small fraction of the total shares.
At a rough estimate of $125/share, this portion of shares corresponds to a market value of about **6 billion USD**.The first time I bought $BTC was while scrolling on my phone on the subway.
A friend messaged me urgently to check it out.
I bought it standing right there.
My palms were sweaty after buying.
I even forgot to get off at my stop.
When it went up a bit, I felt like a genius.
When it dropped a bit, I felt like the whole world was deceiving me.
During that time, I couldn't enjoy my meals.
I had to check it even when going to the bathroom.
Later I realized,
this thing fears impatience the most.
The more impatient you are, the more chaotic it gets.
The more chaotic, the more you lose.
I also held some $ETH in between.
There were people shouting directions in the group chat every day.
I followed their moves a few times.
Buying was nerve-wracking, selling was nerve-wracking too.
The sideways market was the hardest to endure.
Like water that won't boil.
Neither going nor staying felt right.
But I did pay quite a bit in fees.
There was also $SOL that I still remember.
It rose ridiculously fast.
And dropped without warning.
After that, I turned off leverage.
Only played with spare money.
No borrowing, no all-in.
Smaller positions let me sleep peacefully.
When others shout trade calls, I just watch.
When they show off profits, I just smile.
Use cold wallets when needed.
Write down seed phrases on paper and hide them well.
When family asks if I made money,
I just say I'm still learning.
Don't get cocky when winning.
Don't borrow when losing.
Now I don't watch the market every day.
I just dollar-cost average a bit and leave it there.
Check the news when I have time.
If not, just play dead.
There are no wizards in this field.
Surviving is already good.
Holding on is a skill.
Being empty-handed is also a skill.
Don't always think about turning it all around in one shot.
First think about not getting wiped out in one wave.
Consider lost money as tuition.
Don't spend winnings recklessly.
That's roughly the lesson I learned. #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布
#美债收益率全面走高，高利率为何难降？ Yesterday I said to short, and all the brothers were chasing me in the comments to curse.
Today, there's no sound at all.
Old Deng isn't mocking you today either; the brothers who went long at the high point are probably blowing cold wind at the mountain top.
I said before, these altcoins, if they don't have substantial applications, their final destination is zero.
And the news: "$USELESS's KOL shouted: the recent rebound is mainly promoted by influencers...".
In A-shares, this is called "major shareholders issuing good news to cover up selling".
In the crypto world, this is KOL shouting orders to find people to take the plate.
The rebound relies on a big V's mouth, no real money.
Looking at the candlestick chart, the highest touched 0.35879, leaving a long upper shadow and then directly dropping down, this is the most classic "lightning rod" pattern in A-shares.
Now MA5 and MA10 have formed a death cross, and all moving averages are arranged bearish and diverging downward.
More importantly, the 0.32 position was originally a support level, but after breaking down, it has now become an iron ceiling.
As long as the price rebounds to this position, the previously trapped positions will rush out crazily.
A rebound without volume, not even touching the moving averages, what can it charge with?
Looking at my position, I entered a short at 0.325, with a floating profit of +52.49%.
The reason I dare to be so confident is because I paid the most expensive tuition in A-shares and learned one thing: control position size, strictly stop loss.
The current decline is just the beginning; the big one is coming soon!
$BTC
$ETH #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ BTC Market Brief
Today, the price dipped to 83700 and found support, then rebounded and surged to 84600. After a sharp drop, a recovery rally began, but the upward momentum was moderate, and selling pressure above remains.
The previous high of 87245 is still a strong resistance, with the first short-term barrier at 84600. 83700 is the newly tested short-term support today, and the core defense level is 82600. Only if the price breaks and holds above 84600 with volume will the rebound space open; if it falls below 83700 again, it will retest the lows.
This wave is a recovery rebound brought by capital bottom-fishing after a deep drop. After several days of sharp declines, many leveraged positions have been liquidated, but market confidence in going long has not fully returned. Every upward move will see profit-taking. Currently, it is a phase of consolidation and chip accumulation, with the market repeatedly pulling back and altcoins fluctuating accordingly.
In practice, do not blindly chase highs just because of a rebound. Rebound rallies often surge and then fall back, so observe several candlesticks and volume conditions. At this stage, market fluctuations are significant, and spikes are common. Keep leverage low and set stop-losses before entering; do not stubbornly hold onto floating losses. $META
Still up about 1.1% after a big surge, why can META go against the trend?
On a trading day when the Nasdaq dropped 1.1%, META still rose, indicating the market continues to raise expectations for AI agents, advertising efficiency, and business cooperation.
This relative strength is very informative but also means the earnings report bar is higher.
If user engagement, ad conversion rates, and revenue per user improve simultaneously, the strength has profit support; if product popularity does not translate into revenue, but costs rise rapidly, the high valuation will amplify the adjustment after disappointment.🟠 $BTC / $ETH — The Ratio Can Signal When BTC’s Edge Is Fading 👀
📊 BTC can keep climbing while quietly losing relative ground to ETH.
🧠 If BTC/ETH starts making lower highs, ETH is narrowing the performance gap even without a BTC breakdown.
⚡ Trader takeaway: Watch whether the ratio keeps weakening while BTC remains firm. That’s stronger evidence than one isolated ETH spike.
🔥 Leadership can fade before price reveals it.
#BTCPullbackAltRotation
#USIranRiskPremium To judge the authenticity of this wave, I usually first look at ETFs—that's where institutions vote with real money, more honest than candlestick charts.
This week, the three targets are completely different: SOL has had net purchases for 12 consecutive weeks, with funds continuously increasing; BTC only returned 6.21 million for the whole week, basically standing still; ETH had a net redemption of 140 million, BlackRock is buying, but it can't cover the overall share shrinkage. The money hasn't left the market, it's just moving places—ZEC in, ETH out. Institutions are making choices, not entering the market together.
So why is the market still rising? BTC surpassed 85,000, SOL surged even more fiercely, relying on 747 million worth of shorts being forcibly liquidated and pushed up. Short liquidations mean the opposing positions disappear, not new money coming in. Once the liquidations are mostly done, the push will stop.
One side is quietly adjusting positions, the other is passively liquidating; these two forces are not working together at all. Chasing now likely means buying right at the end of the cover.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 This Friday (September 25), about $16 billion worth of BTC options will expire on Deribit, with about $9.6 billion in call options and $6.4 billion in put options. Such a large-scale quarterly expiration may continue to influence price structure before market makers hedge funds mature, and after contract settlement, readjusting hedged positions could amplify short-term volatility. More notably, after Friday's options settlement, US durable goods orders, University of Michigan consumer confidence data, and CME Bitcoin futures settlement will appear one after another, potentially causing the market to face both derivatives rebalancing and macro data shocks. Recent strong US economic data has also pushed US Treasury yields higher, causing BTC to fall from its highs. So the focus now is not just on whether BTC will rise or fall, but on controlling positions and leverage. Before options expire: Watch price reactions in the $85K–$87K range. After maturity: Observe whether the market experiences more pronounced directional fluctuations after hedge funds withdraw. Core principle: Reduce excessive leverage before data releases and wait for confirmation from price and volume. A major market rally may not happen immediately, but a $16 billion maturity combined with macro data is worth prioritizing risk management ⚠️ #BTC #Bitcoin #BTCOptions #CryptoMarket #BTCPullback #CryptoTrading #MarketVolatility🔥"Rallied high then got slammed down" — this script has been replaying these past few days.
📊 【Epic ETF Inflows Can't Stop Profit-Taking】
$BTC surged to an eight-month high of $87,000-$87,300 on 9/21-9/22, accompanied by epic ETF capital inflows: $999 million on 9/21 alone, followed by another $715 million on 9/22, totaling $2.31 billion over four days.
💥 But the rally failed to sustain; today BTC dropped below $85,000, bottoming just above $83,500. This is intense selling pressure, not a "healthy consolidation" — profit-taking after the rally came faster than expected.
🎯 $ETH held up relatively well, hovering around $2,725-$2,730, supported by a $270 million ETF net inflow on 9/21.
⚠️ 【Derivatives Insight: Short Squeeze, Not Genuine Buying】
In the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the network reached $1.06 billion, with $844 million from short positions being forcibly closed — indicating this sharp rally was essentially a short squeeze, not pure buying accumulation. Once the shorts are cleared, upward momentum will quickly fade.
(Source: OKX Planet 09/24)
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 $ETH ETH Market Brief
Just now, it surged to test 2703 but failed to hold, retreating to the current price of 2689. Last night, the low dipped to 2633, a level that has completed a round of chip absorption and is considered an important low point in this correction.
The previous high of 2787 remains a significant resistance, with the first short-term barrier at 2703. 2633 is a key support, and the mid-term defense level is at 2600. Only by firmly standing above 2703 will the rebound space further open; if it breaks below 2633 again, this adjustment will continue downward.
This recent surge followed by resistance and pullback is a corrective rebound after a major drop. The overall Bitcoin market trend is weak, restraining Ethereum's upward momentum. The previous deep drop washed out many high-level bulls, but confidence in going long has not fully recovered yet. Selling pressure will occasionally emerge during the rebound phase, indicating a consolidation and shakeout stage.
In practice, do not rush to chase new highs. The biggest taboo in a rebound market is chasing highs; it's better to observe several candlesticks to see if selling pressure above is heavy. Recently, frequent spikes have occurred, so leverage must be lowered, and stop-loss positions should be planned before entering. Do not stubbornly hold onto floating losses. #美伊谈判推进，油价跌破80美元 #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #美债收益率全面走高，高利率为何难降？
After grinding all day, the price hovered at a high level, neither falling nor breaking through. This kind of stalemate is more exhausting than sharp rises and falls. Bulls dare not add positions, bears don’t dare to heavily short; the more it drags on like this, the more likely the night session will suddenly hit hard.
$BTC is currently around 86000, barely turning green. On the surface, it looks supported, but active buying is sparse, volume keeps shrinking, and turnover at the high level is insufficient. This kind of “false stability” is the easiest to lure people in, only to reverse sharply.
$ETH is around 2730, moving along with BTC. It has no independent narrative; its rise and fall depend entirely on BTC’s mood. When BTC weakens, $ETH’s drop is never subtle. Don’t be fooled by this small follow-up gain.
$OKB’s volatility has narrowed, moving sideways. It has no rhythm of its own; it’s stable only when the market is stable, and softens first when the market wavers. Completely passive.
Tonight, the main risk is a fake breakout followed by a sharp pullback. After a day of sideways movement at a high level without pushing higher, hesitation is clear. The short-term chips accumulated during the day can easily trigger a stampede with a little panic at night.
At this position, don’t chase the rise or heavily bet on one side. It’s better to miss out in the evening than to make a mistake. Capital is more important than opportunity. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $MUBARAK Around 0.052 there are a lot of bottom-fishers, why would the manipulative whales pump the price? After finally selling off, will they pull it back again? Use your brain, when others pump the price upfront, it's to make money, not to do charity.The old mainstream coins have all rebounded strongly; first there was $BCH, now there's $LTC. When trading contracts, you realize it's still best to play the mainstream ones, as their trends are much more reliable. Those with small market caps and newly listed coins are hard to trade—either the manipulation is too obvious or there is rarely a smooth trend.Mid-Autumn Festival is coming soon, and $BTC is also on discount promotion today 😂
After surging to 87399 on the 22nd, it started to go down, just in time before the holiday. The current price is 84275, with a 24-hour high close to 87000 and a low already touching 83500.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the 5-day moving average dropped to 84224, and the price is grinding close to it. The 10-day and 20-day moving averages are still above, but the moving averages are starting to bend downward. Volume has also shrunk; there was volume expansion during the surge, but these days no one wants to move.
MACD green bars have dropped to -910, with a strong death cross signal. The short-term is indeed weak.
I personally believe in the pattern of a drop before the holiday; funds often need to be cashed out before the holiday, and liquidity tightens, making it easy to crash. Although it has risen nearly 10% in 7 days and almost 40% in 90 days, the big trend is intact, but in the next few days, it will most likely first give back some pre-holiday profits.
If 83500 can't hold, I estimate it will first look for support around 82000 or even near 80000. My position is not heavy now, and I don't plan to add in these days before the holiday. I'll just watch the 4-hour close. After the holiday, when the green bars shrink and volume picks up again, I'll consider whether to buy in.
In the mid-term, I still think it can rise, but during these holiday days, I tend to stay on the sidelines first. The first time I bought $BTC, it was a midnight impulse order while scrolling on my phone.
After buying, I put the phone under my pillow.
My heart was pounding.
The first thing I did when I woke up the next day was to check if the price went up.
If it went up, I grinned.
If it dropped, my face fell long.
During that time, I was distracted at work.
When the boss spoke, my mind was full of charts.
Later, I got some $ETH.
Every day in the group, someone was shouting directions.
I followed a few times.
Buying was nerve-wracking, selling was nerve-wracking.
The sideways market was the hardest to endure.
Like water that wouldn’t boil.
Neither going nor staying.
But I paid plenty in fees.
There was also $SOL, which I still remember.
It rose ridiculously fast.
It dropped without warning.
After that, I turned off leverage.
Only played with spare money.
No borrowing, no all-in.
Smaller positions let me sleep soundly.
When others shout trade signals, I just watch.
When they show off profits, I just smile.
Use cold wallets when needed.
Write down mnemonic phrases on paper and hide them well.
When family asks if I made money,
I say I’m still learning.
If I earn, I don’t get cocky.
If I lose, I don’t borrow.
Now I don’t watch the market every day.
I just dollar-cost average a bit and leave it there.
If I have time, I read the news.
If not, I pretend to be dead.
There are no wizards in this field.
Surviving is already good.
Holding on is a skill.
Being empty-handed is also a skill.
Don’t always think about turning it all around in one shot.
First think about not getting wiped out in one wave.
Money lost is tuition.
Money earned is not spent recklessly.
That’s roughly the lesson I’ve learned. #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布
#美债收益率全面走高，高利率为何难降？ 📰 【A certain HYPE whale cut over 16.4 million long positions, only retaining some spot holdings for defense】
BlockBeats reports that on September 24, according to TradingBeats monitoring, the Hyperliquid address 0x4e23 gradually closed all 178,800 HYPE long positions this morning, equivalent to about 16.45 million USD, with a loss of approximately 250,000 USD. After liquidation, the address only retains about 375 spot HYPE and 10,100 staked HYPE for defense, temporarily removing leveraged exposure. Currently, it still holds about 6.38 million USD buy orders at the 87-89 USD range below, and about 13.71 million USD sell orders at the 98-101 USD range above. Previously, the address went long on HYPE last night and fully exited this morning; recently, there were two rounds...
The whale chased longs last night and cut them this morning, losing 250,000 USD is nothing significant. What’s really interesting is the heavy buy orders of over six million USD at 87-89 below, and thick sell orders above. This kind of defense looks more like waiting for sentiment to crash again to pick up bargains, so don’t rush to follow.
Do you think it’s a vacuum position or fishing below? 👇👇👇
$BTC $ETH $XAG ONE RED CANDLE CHANGED THE WHOLE $ARKM CHART.
Price wicked down to 0.11780, then went quiet. Tight candles, now a green one at 0.12276. Still +20.43% on 7D.
I watch the calm after the flush, not the flush. What do you need to see before trusting this bounce?
#BTCPullbackAltRotation #USIranRiskPremium #TokenizedStocks24/7 Positive news piles up but the overall market drags behind! SOL institutional channels fully open, pullback actually plants event-driven opportunities
Recently, SOL institutional access channels have been launched one after another, with multiple fundamental catalysts concentrated for realization. Unfortunately, it coincides with a collective market pullback, so the positive news is temporarily suppressed by the market, a typical case of news leading and price action lagging.
On September 24, a series of news releases: Exchange CEO Teng revealed that a SOL structured ETF is about to be launched; Abu Dhabi's Layer 1 launched SOL staking, opening the Middle East sovereign capital entrance; Latin America's Felix Exchange raised $12 million, stablecoin infrastructure landing in the Solana ecosystem. The financing enthusiasm has not diminished, just overshadowed by the market downturn.
From a technical perspective, RSI at 64.1 has not entered the overbought zone, with a 7-day increase of 13.67%, showing strong performance among mainstream coins. The Alpenglow event window is approaching this weekend, and the pullback caused by the market drag actually provides a layout window. If the price breaks below 104 points, decisively admit the mistake and exit.
Fundamentals have already prepared the ammunition, just waiting for market sentiment to reignite. $BTC $ETH You just made a few dollars and rushed to run, only to see the market keep moving forward; When you were losing, you stubbornly held on, and in the end, $ONE forced you out, losing $200 just like that. The hardest part isn't losing money, but knowing your own problems but repeating them over and over. When making money, you fear losing profits and don't want to cut losses; When you see $ONE suddenly fluctuate big, you want to chase it, only to realize that if you hadn't left last night's order early, the outcome might have been completely different. Now both $BTC and $ETH have shown obvious drawdowns, and the earlier gains feel like the market has taken them away again. The biggest lesson this time isn't "misreading the market," but rather: running when making small gains and enduring big losses is where the real damage to the account is what really wears down the account. What matters more going forward is controlling position positions and setting stop-loss and take-profit in advance, rather than relying on emotions to decide when to exit. On the market side, the U.S. and Iran have recently resumed contacts, and positive diplomatic signals have eased sentiment toward some risk assets, but negotiations still have disagreements, and oil prices and geopolitical risks remain worth watching. Additionally, market funds are showing more obvious signs of sector rotation. After BTC pullback, some funds are seeking highly volatile counterfeit opportunities. $ONE itself has also recently undergone major narrative shifts, with the Harmony community discussing shifting its ecosystem toward AI video-related areas, which naturally causes very sharp volatility. Another noteworthy event tonight: Costco will announce its fourth-quarter earnings, and the market is awaiting the impact of the earnings report on consumer and U.S. stock sentiment #B$BTC $ETH 📊 Market Analysis on September 24, 2026: BTC and ETH enter daily retracement, short-term oscillation leans weak. BTC still holds near MA7, ETH has fallen below MA3 and MA7, showing relatively weaker performance.
1. Latest News
1) ETF data has been updated, but the latest trading day’s full disclosure is still pending. On September 22, US BTC spot ETF net inflow was about $714.7 million, ETH spot ETF net inflow about $162.2 million. Partial disclosures on September 23 show estimated net inflows of $32.4 million and $2.5 million respectively, but major products like BlackRock and Fidelity still lack data, so it’s not possible to conclude a sharp drop or outflow of funds for the whole day.
2) US economic data strengthens, interest rate pressure rises again, leaning bearish. The preliminary composite PMI for September rose to 58.4, higher than August’s 56.0; the US 10-year Treasury yield briefly rose to about 5.05%, with market pricing for a Fed rate hike in October rising to about 70%. The Nasdaq fell about 1.1% overnight, oil prices rose nearly 4%, risk assets under pressure. Although oil prices have somewhat retreated, the US dollar index remains near 101.14.
3) Positive signals emerge on the extension of the US-China trade truce, leaning bullish. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated both sides agreed to extend the trade truce until January next year, helping ease trade uncertainties; further outcomes depend on formal talks and disclosures from both sides.
Overall news judgment: short-term bearish. 🏛️ The Federal Reserve just moved to make FedNow work for cross-border payments
Not domestic transfers anymore — 24/7, near-instant money across borders
Most people will read this as a payments story
It isn't just that $BTC
If the rails that settle value between countries start running around the clock, the case for 24/7 settlement assets gets a lot louder — and that's a lane crypto has been occupying alone
No timeline yet, no full details on which corridors come first
$ETH ⚡ CFTC ALERT ON KALSHI? FALSE RUMOR! 🛑
📌 The exchange denies any investigation over $5B in ETH perps; they attribute the pattern to liquidity incentive programs and not to wash trading.
📌 No contact from regulators so far; Kalshi points to noise generated by competitors.
$ETH $BTC
💬 Do you think the regulated US perps market will face more regulatory pressure this month? I’m reading your comments! 👇The 10-year US Treasury yield has risen above 5%, and Bitcoin fell first as a sign of respect.
The logic is straightforward: risk-free returns over 5%, $BTC generates no cash flow, so the opportunity cost is instantly magnified.
Funds are withdrawn from risk assets, BTC fell from 87k, with 84k becoming a key support level, and bulls suffered a brutal washout.
In the short term, US Treasuries are the strongest headwind for BTC; in the long term, the "digital gold" narrative will come into play.
Don't go against interest rates now.Big Brother Maji started trading
$ETH is his absolute main position, going long with 25x leverage on about 36,500 ETH, with an average entry price around $2,658. Currently, the unrealized profit is about $1.02 million, making it the most profitable trade in his account. Although he reduced some positions last night, ETH remains the heaviest and most profit-contributing coin in his portfolio.
$BTC position was cut significantly; after reducing last night, only 108 BTC remain, with 40x leverage and an average entry price of $84,064. The unrealized profit is only $24,000, which feels like a "small change" compared to the million-dollar profit from ETH. He used to have a large BTC position but is clearly shrinking it now.
HYPE is currently his only losing position, going long with 10x leverage on 217,000 tokens, with an average entry price of $93.95, and an unrealized loss of $270,000. Interestingly, his action last night was to "increase HYPE holdings," meaning he added to the position despite losing money, which fits his style of high-volatility speculation.
New move on PUMP today. He opened a new 10x leveraged long position on PUMP this morning, with a position size of about $600,000, holding 150 million tokens, currently with an unrealized profit of only $4,700. PUMP is a meme coin; he put in $600k to test the waters. The position isn't large, but the signal is clear—using profits from ETH to try a short-term play in the meme sector.As I warned yesterday, after a rapid rally driven by positive news, the market is prone to profit-taking and short-term cooldowns. I've already reduced most of my $BTC and $ETH positions, locking in some profits and waiting for a clearer opportunity next time. This isn't hindsight, but an adjustment made in advance based on the current market structure. Meanwhile, I'm starting to pay attention to $OKB. OKB's recent strong performance has lagged behind BTC and ETH, currently around $119, down about 3.5% in 24 hours. If the market completes this shakeout and funds rotate back into relatively stagnant sectors, whether OKB will catch up is worth watching. The key is still to look at trading volume and market capital direction—don't chase highs, just wait for confirmation 👀 #BTC #ETH #OKB #CryptoMarket #Altcoin #CryptoRecovery #BTCPullback#美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？
With the US and Iran resuming contact, will the risk premium on oil prices decrease? The market has already started trading on expectations of easing, but the real test is just beginning.
US and Iranian representatives have engaged in indirect contact through intermediaries during the UN General Assembly, reactivating diplomatic channels. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's east-west oil pipeline has resumed operation, relieving some pressure on crude oil exports and prompting the market to reassess the risk of supply disruptions in the Middle East.
However, contact does not equal agreement. Iran's conditions involve military pressure, port blockades, and sanction arrangements, and differences remain between the parties. As long as there is uncertainty about navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil will find it difficult to completely shed the geopolitical risk premium.
For $BTC, $ETH, and gold $XAU tech stocks, a decline in oil prices may ease inflation and interest rate pressures, but this is not an automatic signal for a rise; it also depends on the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and actual capital flows.
Gold faces another kind of game: easing tensions may weaken safe-haven buying, but if inflation expectations also decline simultaneously, it could reduce real interest rate pressure.
The focus going forward is on three things: whether the US and Iran continue negotiations, the actual navigation volume through the Strait of Hormuz, and the speed of Saudi export recovery. The market can trade hope in advance, but for the risk premium to continue falling, visible actions are still needed.#BTC surged then pulled back, has the market rotation started? #If the big coin wants to rebound, it must close above 847 on the hourly chart to confirm a short-term bottom and enter a connecting consolidation; if it stays below 844, the consolidation leans bearish.
Last night was a short-term oversell, the probability of continuous sharp drops is low, it may oscillate between 837-844 before continuing a 4-hour level correction down to 818~795. The short-term correction does not change the overall bullish outlook before the mid-term selection.
Some altcoins have already experienced a round of overbought distribution and reached target levels, so reduce positions in batches, do not hold full positions stubbornly. These coins tend to behave like this: they slightly rise when the market rises a little, but fall sharply when the market drops, with pullbacks of 20%-30% being normal.
Remember: the premise of a good setup is having a sufficiently low cost basis. Chips held at mid-mountain or mountain top levels, blindly holding on, can easily lose all profits. Other people's low-cost setups may not suit you.$TRUMP This long position has taught me a lesson. Entered with 50x leverage, opening average price at 2.143, now the floating loss has reached -312.64%. Looking at the 4-hour candlestick, after a surge there was a sharp drop, the price fell back to around 2.0, just stepping on the long-term moving average support level. KDJ has entered the oversold area, seemingly offering a chance for a rebound, but the MACD bearish momentum hasn't eased yet.
The Meme coin market is all about sentiment; when it rises, it's booming, but when it falls, it retreats mercilessly. High leverage has extremely low tolerance for errors, any slight pullback will infinitely amplify losses. Now I can only quietly observe whether the support holds. Even if a rebound comes later, I dare not have too high expectations. This lesson has firmly ingrained the harsh reality of leverage and MEME coins.After BTC surged and then pulled back, funds have clearly started flowing into altcoins. More than 70% of assets have outperformed BTC, which is a typical case of overflow when the water level is full.
This doesn't mean BTC is failing; it's called the capital overflow effect. BTC heated up the market first, and now that it's taking a breather at a high level, the money in the market naturally looks for new lowlands. Mainstream tokens like $ETH and $SOL are catching up, while NEAR, UNI, and ZEC, which have independent narratives, are also rising, and even some old Memes are becoming active.
Why can this rotation happen now? The core reason is that ETFs and corporate treasuries have changed the capital structure. Previously, after BTC pumped, it would crash sharply. Now BTC can't fall much because institutions are supporting it from below, so funds can only spread outward. The traditional four-year BTC cycle is likely being smoothed out by institutional capital, leaving a window for altcoins to perform.
But I want to remind you, rotation definitely does not mean a universal rally. Now it's a test of insight, not speed. Find tokens with narratives and capital attention, hold the spot positions firmly, and don't chase pumps or dumps in the short term. This rotation has just begun, so don't get on the wrong train before the doors close. #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ $ETH
$162 million inflow, why does ETH still need to prove relative strength?
ETH spot ETFs saw a net inflow of about $162 million in a single day, accumulating approximately $432 million over two consecutive days, and no ETH fund recorded a net outflow on that day.
This indicates that institutional allocation is genuine, but the independent trend still depends on ETH/BTC.
If funds continue to flow in and ETH/BTC strengthens simultaneously, the rotation is confirmed; if ETF inflows are strong but ETH continues to lag behind BTC, it indicates heavier existing sell pressure. Capital flow provides direction, price feedback determines the conclusion.Has it started? Over the past three months, BTC has risen from around $58,000 all the way up to above $87,000, while some altcoins like UNI and ZEC have also seen significant gains. During rallies, the market is always optimistic, but the real question to consider is: when will the profits on paper truly become your own? There is only one ZEC, and UNI is not the same as ZEC. Looking back at 2021, when BTC rose from about $30,000 to around $64,000, AAVE peaked after rising from about $580 to around $660. So my approach has always been simple: when some altcoins surge too much in the short term, prioritize getting back your principal, converting part of it into BTC and ETH, and keep the remaining positions without setting rigid sell prices in advance. After all, unrealized gains are just numbers in your account; the real profits you pocket belong to you. 📉 Let's look at BTC's current trend. BTC once surged to around $87,399, then fell back to around $84,178. This recent rapid rise was largely accompanied by short stop-losses and liquidations. Data shows that on September 21, the single-day liquidation exceeded $10 billion. But in less than two days, the price climbed back above $84,000. This also shows that current market leverage is not low. When open interest remains high,#美股探索代币化与全天候交易
"NYSE Ventures into Tokenization, Proposes 24/7 Trading for US Stocks"
The NYSE has just partnered with a digital platform to tokenize US stocks and is considering extending trading hours to a full 24/7 schedule.
Traditional stock markets go quiet for 65 hours after closing on Friday. When big news hits, market makers holding hundreds of billions can only watch helplessly overnight as prices gap, while on-chain transactions settle in seconds, allowing instant buying and selling.
Traditional exchanges can no longer sit still; their fee base is being siphoned off on-chain. Next, it depends on which core assets get approved under the clearing licenses. $BTC ETH is scheduled to launch the Glamsterdam upgrade on October 6th, with the Gas limit raised to 200 million. Will this cause a surge?
Short-term bias is bullish but it is not advisable to equate the upgrade directly with a surge. ETH is currently quoted at 2,696 USDT, down 2.663% in 24 hours; the daily chart still maintains a bullish structure, but the 1h/4h charts are undergoing correction. Glamsterdam's increase in Gas limit mainly improves throughput. Whether it can boost ETH depends on actual transaction demand, fees, and whether ETH burn volume increases in sync.
Currently, reports are closer to the Sepolia/public test scheduled for October 6th, rather than a confirmed mainnet launch; the testnet once pushed the per-block workload limit to about 200 million Gas, but developers also warned that the test process could be disrupted by malicious or fake builders. According to CoinDesk, if Glamsterdam's capacity increase succeeds, it will be beneficial for Ethereum scaling in the long term, but test stability and mainnet deployment remain critical verification steps.
CoinDesk also reported that developers faced a short review time before testing and warned that the testnet might be interfered with; therefore, the market may first hype the "capacity increase" expectation and then reprice based on test results.