Tonight at 8:30, the non-farm payrolls will be released. This time, I actually think the market should focus not on whether the "data is good or bad," but on whether employment has started to show a continuous weakening. The chart shows the market expects August non-farm payrolls to increase by 56,000, with the previous value still at -23,000; the unemployment rate is expected to be 4.1%, basically unchanged. If the non-farm payrolls are just slightly better than expected, I don't necessarily think it's bearish for BTC. Because the core of market trading has gradually shifted from "whether the economy is strong or not" to "whether employment can still hold up." Data too strong → rate cut expectations cool down, BTC under pressure. Data too weak → recession concerns rise, BTC may not immediately rise either. So tonight I’m more focused on one thing: How U.S. Treasury yields move after the non-farm payrolls are announced. If employment is weak but yields fall simultaneously, it might actually give risk assets some breathing room. Tonight, I won’t guess the numbers; I’ll wait for the market to give the answer itself. Will this non-farm payrolls report become the real turning point for the September market? #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $BTC $ETH $USELESS

Trump mentioned Iran again, but what BTC should really fear might not be war. Trump's latest statement says the Iranian regime is collapsing and is preparing to strike again in the future, while emphasizing that the U.S. has full control over the Strait of Hormuz. Many people's first reaction is: geopolitical conflict escalates, BTC will drop. But I actually think what really needs attention is the chain of oil prices → inflation → the Federal Reserve. If the Strait of Hormuz experiences sustained disruption, it will affect not only crude oil prices. Energy costs rise, inflation expectations may rise again. And the market is already trading on a Federal Reserve policy shift. If inflation becomes "unfavorable" again, the Fed's room to cut rates will be squeezed, or it may even release hawkish signals again, putting more pressure on risk assets than the war news itself. So now when I look at BTC, I don't just focus on war news. War is just the first layer, oil prices are the second layer, and the Federal Reserve is the third layer. If oil prices spike and then quickly fall back, I think the market may soon trade away the war premium. But if oil prices continue to rise, then it's a completely different matter. This is also what worries me most now: The real risk for BTC may not be risk-off sentiment, but inflation returning. Will this Iran situation eventually evolve into the next round of macro pressure on BTC? $BTC $ETH $SOL #霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注

$BTC rebounded to 79K, but I'm not in a hurry to be bullish Now BTC has climbed back near 79,000, and the 4-hour chart does look stronger than a few days ago. But I'm more concerned about one detail: the price has touched the upper Bollinger Band, yet the volume hasn't increased accordingly. So in my view, this is more like a rebound correction within a consolidation range, and can't yet be defined as a new upward rally. The first resistance is between 79,200 and 79,500; only with a real volume-backed break and hold above this can we consider targeting 80,000 or even the previous high of 81,520. Conversely, if the area around 79K repeatedly fails to break through, and 78,800 is lost, the market will likely seek support near 77,800 again. My current thinking is simple: Don't guess the top, and don't chase breakouts. Only when BTC turns resistance into support will I change the word "rebound" to "trend continuation". #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强