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Anthropic filed an S-1.
Revenue is expected to grow to about $4.6 billion in 2025, 12 times that of the previous year, but operating losses expanded from $2.98 billion to $8.06 billion; just computing power and infrastructure cost $7.33 billion, three times the previous year and accounting for more than half of total costs.
Of the approximately $42 billion net loss, $34 billion is an accounting provision from the increase in convertible bond valuation, not actual cash spent.
The real risk lies in the revenue side: only two customers contribute nearly a quarter of the revenue, and most major customers have not signed long-term contracts.
The committed cloud and computing power expenditures over the next few years total $518 billion, and underwriters are rumored to value the company at over $2 trillion.When load-bearing walls develop cracks, no matter how beautiful the curtain wall is, it’s just psychological comfort.
$UMA This building’s short-term RSI has already surged to 68.0, leaving only a 2% margin before hitting the overbought red line. The Bollinger Bands are more honest—the price has been pushed to 118% of the short-term upper band, with only a 0.3% paint layer thickness left before the upper band. The entire structure is cantilevering outward, but the foundation rebar—long-term RSI at 45.8—has not kept up at all. This disconnect between top and bottom has only one annotation on my blueprint: dangerous building warning.
The 1.96% gain in 24H is like a false topping ceremony on the construction schedule. The real load test hasn’t started yet: the price still has 2.0% settlement space before the short-term lower band, and 3.1% buffer before the mid-term lower band. Yet the signal is already flashing red—SELL.
My approach is never to wait until cracks spread visibly before exiting. The current $0.36 is not my working level; I will pre-place short positions at $0.38—that’s a 3.2% cantilever beam above the current price, waiting for the bulls to push the structural load up themselves. Profit-taking will be removed in two stages: first target $0.34, corresponding to a 5.4% settlement; second target $0.35, corresponding to a 3.0% fine-tuning. Why is the second target closer? Because the main load-bearing area’s repair usually truly begins in the second phase—first pocket a floor slab, then let the wind take care of the rest.
Stop loss is set at $0.42, a 15.2% redundancy height above. This is not cowardice; it’s leaving ductile deformation space for the structure—but if it really breaks through, it means the entire building’s design logic is flawed, and patching won’t solve the problem.
📉 Short:
Entry: 0.38 (current price +3.2%)
Take Profit 1: 0.34 (-5.4%)
Take Profit 2: 0.35 (-3.0%)
Stop Loss: 0.42 (+15.2%)
I’ve seen too many projects that rushed to top off without properly laying the long-term foundation; none have passed inspection.🔥$BTC near 83000, the biggest taboo right now is getting emotionally overwhelmed.
On one side, there's a wave of liquidations; on the other, institutional capital is flowing in. BTC is currently engaged in a very typical tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
📉 The macro pressure is indeed significant: the 10-year US Treasury yield once reached 5.27%, the highest since 2007; oil prices and geopolitical risks have reignited market concerns about inflation and interest rates.
🧐 However, on the other side, the US spot BTC ETF still attracted about $2.4 billion in net inflows last week, indicating that capital has not fully withdrawn.
So, I'm not rushing to call a bull market, nor am I rushing to call a bear market.
🧱 First, let's see if 83000 can hold.
If it continues to break down, focus on preventing the liquidation chain from expanding; if it stabilizes again, then watch if the bulls can regain control.
💰 The real danger is not market volatility, but opening your position to the maximum during the biggest swings.
Surviving is more important than guessing the next candlestick correctly.
Are you currently siding with the bulls, the bears, or preparing to be a spectator? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% $PUMP Short zone: $0.0053–$0.0055 One thing I’ve learned: don’t force a connection between crypto and the stock market of a specific country. The relationship is much more about capital flows and sector rotation. You can think of crypto, gold, and U.S. equities as three major capital destinations. Money rotates between them depending on liquidity, risk appetite, and market conditions. I also wouldn’t rely too much on simple time-based patterns like “this coin usually pumps or dumps during this pIs there anyone like me? I chase when BTC rises and cut losses when it falls, only to get slapped in the face repeatedly?
I used to be like this and lost 200,000 U. Now BTC is at 84029, with resistance at 84346 and support at 84000, another frustrating position. When it rises a bit, I want to chase; when it falls a bit, I want to cut losses. This mindset is the easiest way to lose money.
Later I realized: trading is not about who reacts faster, but who has more patience. Waiting for a clear signal before acting is a hundred times better than tossing around in a choppy market.
My plan is simple: if it breaks through and holds above 84346, go long with 5000 U, stop loss at 84000, target 84800; if it breaks below 84000, go short with 5000 U, stop loss at 84346, target 83500. Never hold a position without a stop loss.
If you are also a retail trader, remember: trade less, wait more, preserving your principal is more important than anything. $BTC #美伊继续谈判，核问题与制裁成新焦点 BTC has already rebounded, so why do so many people still not believe it? I actually find it a bit interesting! Brothers, first take a look at the funding rates; the market is not as excited as you think.
In the screenshot, Binance's BTC funding rate is only 0.0065%, OKX's is even lower at 0.0019%, Bybit's is just 0.0042%, and some platforms have even started showing negative rates.
The price is going up, but contract traders are still hesitating. Shorts are reluctant to exit, and longs don't dare to add positions aggressively. This kind of market actually makes me want to keep observing.
Right now, I’m expecting two possible trends.
One is BTC continuing to rally, forcing shorts to cover, and the price rising to the point where more people can’t hold on. The other is more frustrating: a rebound lacking volume, price surging then falling back, and the longs who just chased in getting cut again.
For BTC, I’m watching 84000 first, then after breaking 84300, observing 85000. Although most platforms keep ETH funding rates around 0.01%, we still need to see if 2720 can be held. SOL is even more awkward, with funding rates clearly diverging; if it can’t hold around 120, I won’t chase for now.
One more detail: funding rates only reflect one aspect of current long and short position costs; you can’t judge who’s quietly accumulating just based on them. Next, I’ll focus on spot trading volume and changes in open interest.
Personally, I still lean bullish, but I won’t rush in with high leverage just because of one bullish candle. The market just shook out a batch of people; who knows who will get cut next?
I’d rather wait for a confirmed breakout and take smaller losses than pay tuition repeatedly at this level Kanye sent money to Binance again after 11 months😇 According to Ai Auntie's monitoring, Kanye West withdrew 1445 ETH (about 3.91 million USD) from Aave to recharge the exchange. The last time he did this was at the bull market peak in October 2025. Currently, there are still 26.7 million USD assets on-chain.
In my opinion, this rhythm is much more punctual than his new album🤣 After finishing the mountain top, he’s back to restock. Is he preparing to cash out, or does he find the market not exciting enough?
$BTC $ETH $AAVEAlthough the price has dropped, the market remains healthy. Will $4Stock target the posts about single kills? Let's take a look at the data!
Data changes of the top 40 $4Stock holders as of 2026.9.29
Alpha: Inflow of 4.6 million tokens
gate1: Outflow of 4.87 million tokens
kucoin2: Outflow of 1.44 million tokens
Burn address: 100,000 tokens burned
New entries in top 40: 1 person, entered by increasing position
Dropped out of top 40: 1 person, fully exited
Top 40 increased positions: 2 people, 1 transferred in, 1 increased position
Top 40 decreased positions: 2 people, both decreased positions
$4Stock Daily Key Summary:
The new address entering the top 40 did so by increasing their position. The address that dropped out of the top 40 chose to fully exit. The number of addresses increasing or decreasing positions in the top 40 is small. Notably, the previous data was around 10 million. Single kill detection showed that gate and kucoin addresses stopped selling, but this data shows that the two exchanges continue to have small outflows, proving that selling has not stopped. Although these two exchanges keep outflowing tokens, the token price has hovered above their cost line and has not broken below the cost price monitored by single kill for these two exchanges' price support. The overall change is only in price; the market situation has not changed much. That's roughly the situation. Single kill will update immediately if there are new developments!!Staring at this market for a long time really creates an illusion that not clicking the order button means losing money. Clearly, all indicators show the whole market is on the sidelines, yet my hand stubbornly stays on the mouse, repeatedly hovering over those few low points, as if the market would betray my years of professional experience if I don't act.
Actually, I know deep down that entering in this low-volume, sluggish market is just feeding the market. The hardest part of trading isn't the strategy; it's watching opportunities slip away without feeling regret, it's the pain of understanding clearly but forcing yourself to control your desires. At times like this, the real skill is being able to sit tight, and the rest is up to fate.
$BTC $SOL $SUI "When the tide recedes, there are no isolated islands"
$BTC 83400, $ZEC 1454, $XAU 4125, all fell on the same day. ZEC plunged 9.37%, and gold also dropped 3.71%. This is not a separate pullback for each, but capital retreating through the same door.
With PCE on September 30 and Nonfarm Payrolls on October 2 looming overhead, and the interest rate path unclear, big money is unwilling to bet before the answers are revealed, so they reduce positions and convert to cash first. U.S. Treasury yields are high, tightening expectations are rising again, and both risk assets and safe-haven assets are being sold together, indicating the market is trading liquidity rather than safety.
Don't take gold's decline as proof of BTC's safe-haven status. Both falling together precisely shows they are both under pressure from "too much money fearing inflation, expensive money fearing tightening." 4140 may not be the bottom for gold, and 83000 may not be the bottom for BTC. In the face of macro data, technical support often feels fragile.
Don't catch a falling knife in the short term. If you have a position, set stop losses; if you don't, wait for panic. After data is released and sentiment clears, then talk about opportunities. For now, cash is also a position.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% BTC slightly up 0.21%, don’t be fooled by the 54% bullish sentiment.
Current price around 83500, seemingly calm on the surface, but beneath it’s a battlefield. ETF weekly inflow is 2.39 billion, a certain strategy increased holdings to 847,000 coins, looking like a bottom support. But once the market touches 83000, over 250 million long positions explode, with total liquidations close to 490 million. Short-term holders cut 23,000 coins, and a major holder from the 2015 “Satoshi era” also dumped 380 million.
The macro situation is even more worrying: oil prices, US Treasury yields, and geopolitical tensions all pressuring, risk assets are down. Altcoin spot volume surged to four times that of BTC, a signal that often appears around local tops.
So don’t stubbornly hold on, exit once the support breaks, wait for signals before moving again. A slight rise is not safety, it’s a bull trap.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 BTC has rebounded, but not many people dare to chase in the contract market; this market situation is quite interesting!
I just checked the funding rates on major exchanges. Although BTC has seen a slight rebound, the bulls are clearly not excited yet.
Binance's BTC funding rate is only 0.0065%, OKX is even lower at 0.0019%, Bybit is at 0.0042%, and WhiteBIT even shows a negative rate. Looking at these platforms together, market sentiment remains cautious, and the bears are not rushing to retreat.
ETH is interesting though, with most platforms maintaining funding rates around 0.01%, while SOL shows obvious divergence. After such a sharp drop earlier, now with a few rebound candles, some are already shouting that the bull market is back, but I really don't dare to be so optimistic.
However, low funding rates have another side. If spot buying continues to enter the market and prices keep rising, those bears unwilling to retreat might actually fuel the upward movement.
Next, I will keep watching BTC at 84000; if it holds, then look at 84300 and 85000; for ETH, focus on 2720 and observe 2740 after a breakout. For SOL, first see if it can reclaim 120; if it can't hold, don't rush to chase.
Right now, I want to see the spot market leading the rise, not contract funds suddenly flooding in to force a pull-up. Low funding rates don't necessarily mean a rise, and negative rates don't mean an immediate crash; you have to consider open interest and volume together.
We just went through a round of shakeout yesterday, so there's no need to rush to max out leverage today. The direction can be bullish, but you still need to leave some room in your position. $BTC They were not the same... The structure before and during the move matters. Were all three bearish engulfing candles? Yes. But look at the structure surrounding each occurrence. The third came after a breakout from a 2+ month range, liquidating $6B in shorts. That's very different from the two previous instances, where price kept targeting the shorts while leaving almost all the wick lows unswept, making participants feel safe in longs. The context matters. This is a clear indication that $ATOM Look at one data point: $22.7 million nominal open interest surged 13.36% in one day, yet the price remained completely still. This is not calm; it is a compressed spring. At the $1.74 level, smart money is holding firm—Binance Futures top traders currently have a long ratio of 59.8%, shorts 40.2%, with a long-short ratio pulled up to 1.49. The order book is sparse but trades are dense, a typical high-control probing action by market makers.
But the truth often lies in contradictions. Smart money is accumulating longs, yet the buy-to-sell ratio in the past hour is 0.8537—sell orders executed nearly 1.12 million contracts, buys only 957,000 contracts. The funding rate is even negative at -0.0349%, meaning the market is pricing in downside risk despite longs outnumbering shorts. Whales are absorbing or defending key price levels, while active sellers are taking profits from recent gains or betting on a failed rebound. This divergence is a typical feature of the accumulation phase, not a breakout fingerprint.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓
#OKX.ai：一个人就是一家世界级公司 Most people use a DEX like a CEX: pick a pair, hit swap, hope the fill is fine.
That is expensive.
A DEX is not just the quoted price. It is the route, the depth, and the impact. If the asset is on another chain, you are the bridge.
Learn APY, impermanent loss, and the difference between multi-chain and cross-chain before you size the swap. Isolated liquidity looks fine until you try to exit. Starting from 100U, what has happened to my contract account in this past month or so? I hesitated for a moment about sharing this picture, but I decided to post it anyway. It's not to prove how good I am. Anyone who has done contracts knows that profits over a period don't say much. You might earn a lot today, but lose it all back later. But from August 2nd to September 28th, during this time starting from 100U, gradually building up the account, it’s definitely worth recording for me. The screenshot shows: Total profit and loss: +3774.83U Total profit and loss rate: +1233.23% Win rate: 87.93% At the very beginning, my account actually only had 100U. ⸻ When I had 100U, my mindset was actually very simple. At first, I didn’t think about compounding or reaching thousands of U. It was just 100U. If I lost it all, I would just consider it tuition fees. So my thought at the time was simple: first use a small amount of capital to run through my trading method. When I used to trade, I had many bad habits. When I saw prices rising, I was afraid of missing out and chased in. After entering, if there was a pullback, I thought it was just a shakeout. If it continued to fall, I started thinking about averaging down. Eventually, my position got heavier and heavier, and my mindset got worse and worse. The real pain often isn’t losing once. It’s knowing you made a mistake but refusing to get out. So this time starting from 100U, I wasn’t in such a hurry. ⸻ In the earlier period, the profits were actually very slow. Looking back at this curve now, the beginning was basically just little by littleSeptember 29 Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis
Bitcoin is in a phase of volume contraction and price pullback, with price and volume declining in sync, mainly dragged down by external factors — the probability of an interest rate hike in October exceeds 70%, and gold has already broken down. However, the actual decline in BTC is limited, supported by internal demand and buy orders. There is a large-scale divergence that needs to be gradually digested through oscillation; trapped short sellers above form passive buy orders, creating a short-term dilemma. If it subsequently breaks below 82k and slides toward the 80,000 integer level, it remains a good buying opportunity. Intraday it has already dropped below 83k; buying can continue around 80K/82.5K, with a target above 84K.
Ethereum shows a narrow oscillation pattern, with overall performance weaker than Bitcoin.
Key focus: This week’s upcoming data releases include JOLTS (today), PCE (Wednesday), and September Nonfarm Payrolls (Friday)Avoid blind optimism on a single-day bullish candle
BTC, ETH, and SOL collectively rebound, with OKB surging strongly. This is mostly short-covering ahead of the PCE and non-farm payroll releases, representing a brief emotional pulse rather than a trend reversal. U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and Federal Reserve officials have recently leaned hawkish; if inflation data exceeds expectations, the rebound could quickly fade.
Pay special attention to ZEC. Despite its remarkable gains this year and ETF-driven inflows, the development team has disbanded, code vulnerabilities remain, and whales have been consistently selling at highs recently. Liquidity is weak, so this rebound is more suitable for exiting positions rather than chasing entries.
The current market anticipates a high probability of a rate hike in October, with tightening capital conditions. Spot holdings can be maintained, avoid short-term leverage, and wait for key data releases before seeking clear opportunities. Do not recklessly add positions during the rebound.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $BTC $ETH "1.6 Billion Liquidation Bureau: ETH Short-term Survival Rules"
The ETH liquidation chart looks like a fully drawn bow: 856 million long positions liquidated below, 749 million short positions liquidated above, nearly 1.6 billion chips facing off across the air. Yet the price is driven by news, surging to 2720 but falling back before touching 2800, leaving those chasing longs trapped and those chasing shorts uneasy. Recently, the mid-to-long term has become a "profit retracement device," the bigger the pattern, the more painful the pullback.
The main force seems to always bypass your take-profit points, first creating disappointment, then amplifying volatility. Non-farm payrolls, PCE, US Treasury yields hitting new highs since 2007, gold dropping over 3%, all stirring risk appetite. Amid the double kill of longs and shorts, short-term is more practical than faith.
If there is a surge tonight, no need to cling to the battle; reduce positions in batches and secure profits. Tomorrow's PCE is the big test, and volatility could be terrifying. $ETH $BTC It's not about who sees further now, but who survives longer.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $DOGE Deviation of the lower boundary of the internal range will be used to look for a reversal pattern inside the POI and open a long position
$DOGE
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek
#MicronEarningsAhead
Dyor$ATOM ATOM suddenly shows increased volume at a low level, with only two possible scenarios: the last shakeout before a launch, or a bull trap followed by a sharp sell-off. In either case, volatility will be maximized.
Why focus on this level? Because ATOM's open interest contracts surged over 13% in one day, with a notional value reaching $22.7 million, while the price remained almost unchanged. This is not calm; it's a compressed spring. The price discovery phase has begun, and directional shocks could erupt at any moment.
On the fundamentals side, the 1.227 million ATOM recovered from the Neutron attack are still locked in a 4/6 multisig address, awaiting governance voting to decide their fate. This itself is a governance event that could ignite market sentiment at any time. On the macro level, the Ledger wallet outage lasted four days, during which users couldn't check balances or submit transactions. The concentrated sell pressure after recovery hangs like a sword overhead.
I'm not betting on direction. But at the 1.514 level, once the direction is confirmed, whether you can keep up depends on your reaction speed.
Watch the order book, watch the volume, watch if $1.70 can hold. Act once the structure forms; it's more sustainable than guessing direction.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 Someone is dumping ETH OG, but new addresses are hoarding by withdrawing from Binance.
According to ChainCatcher/PANews citing Lookonchain on 9/29: a newly created address withdrew 9,132 ETH from Binance in the past 3 hours, about $24.37 million. Compared to around 12:00 today when ETH OG sold about 1,000 ETH again and at 14:00 when SharpLink re-staked, these are different entities; CEX withdrawals are consolidating NEW.
Withdrawal ≠ position established or fully bought; new address ≠ entity confirmed; monitoring tags ≠ guaranteed continued hoarding. At the time of writing, OKX ETH is about 2716. Not investment advice.
$ETH 🚨 After $BTC retraced, key levels are being contested again!
Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $84,000. Previously, BTC rebounded from about $74,955 to $87,399, then took some profit, and is now testing short-term support.
📊 Key levels: ➤ Current: around $84,025 ➤ Near-term support: $82,000–$83,000 ➤ 20-day moving average: around $81,000 ➤ Key resistance: $86,500–$87,400 ➤ If a valid breakout occurs: watch $89,000–$90,000+
💰 Funding highlights remain:
US spot BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of about $2.4B last week, indicating institutional demand still exists. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields remain high, with the 10-year yield around 5.25%, and the high interest rate environment may still limit the upside for risk assets.
This week will also see PCE inflation data + nonfarm payroll reports, with macro data potentially becoming an important catalyst for BTC's next move.
🔑 Trading logic:
Hold above $83K–$84K → structure may have a chance to retest $87.4K
Break and close above $87.4K → next target $90K
Break below $81K → beware of deeper pullback
Prioritize structure, confirm with data, do not chase the rally.
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #BGRASS rose nearly 25%, contract open interest increased by about 65%, but the funding rate barely warmed up.
As of 18:58 Beijing time, OKX spot price is about $0.6901, with a 24-hour trading volume of approximately $6.7 million; the intraday high was $0.7472, and the current price has retraced about 7.6% from the peak.
The changes on the contract side are more obvious. OKX hourly statistics show that the nominal value of open interest rose from about $4.89 million 24 hours ago to about $8.06 million, an increase of approximately 64.8%; the current funding rate is only 0.005%, and the perpetual premium is close to zero. Positions are growing rapidly, but longs are not paying more in funding fees.
My judgment is that this rally has indeed attracted leveraged funds, but it does not yet look like a one-sided long squeeze. The easiest misjudgment is to equate increased open interest directly with new longs; open interest only indicates more open positions, not the direction.
Next, watch around $0.65 and changes in open interest. If the price retakes $0.7472 and the growth rate of open interest slows, it indicates turnover may be digesting; if it breaks below $0.65 and open interest remains high, new leverage is more likely to amplify the pullback.
$GRASS Folks, what does Nvidia's 235 billion buyback authorization mean?
First, it means the management doesn't believe the AI boom is over. Last quarter's revenue doubled to 96.2 billion, with free cash flow reaching 70 billion. Jensen Huang is paying shareholders with real money. This isn't just a slogan; it's solid cash flow, indicating the computing power dividend will last a long time.
Second, it means the market's pricing logic for Nvidia has changed. Previously, everyone only asked how much it would spend on R&D; now they look at how much profit it can make and how much it can return to shareholders. Moving from burning cash for expansion to generating profits and returns is a sign of a mature company.
But you must separate this logic from the crypto world. Nvidia's money flows back to US stock shareholders; it won't automatically flow into our pools. Currently, macro conditions are tight, with US Treasury yields at a high of 5.27%, and a 70% chance of a rate hike in October. Bitcoin is still fluctuating around 83,000, and gold has fallen back to 4144. Funds willing to return to US stocks don't mean they're willing to take risks in crypto.
So don't blindly rush into altcoins just because of Nvidia's buyback. When watching the market, focus on one core thing: whether Bitcoin can hold the 80,700 to 82,800 range. If it holds, it proves market sentiment can absorb macro pressure. If it doesn't, Nvidia's buyback story won't save your night session leverage.
$NVDA $BTC #Strategy再购BTC, multiple corporate treasuries simultaneously increase holdings. Strategy has once again increased its BTC holdings, purchasing 1,665 coins this round at a cost of about $143 million, bringing its total holdings to over 847,000 coins. Meanwhile, several publicly listed companies' treasuries, including Strive, have also started increasing their positions, creating a collective corporate treasury accumulation phenomenon that provides structural buying support for BTC.
From the underlying logic, these treasury companies operate by issuing additional shares to raise funds, which are then used to continuously buy Bitcoin. This is a long-term asset allocation strategy, not short-term speculation. The renewed confidence of corporate capital in BTC's long-term store of value, combined with inflows from spot ETFs, resonates to further strengthen the institutional entry narrative.
However, it is important to distinguish that this is a medium- to long-term capital signal and does not mean an immediate and sustained short-term price surge. This treasury model inherently carries leverage risk: when the coin price drops sharply, the company's stock price comes under pressure, reducing its financing ability. In extreme cases, it may be forced to sell BTC to repay debt, amplifying the downtrend. Moreover, Strategy's purchase price this time is higher than its own long-term holding cost, indicating accumulation at a relatively high level rather than bottom-fishing.
On the macro level, constraints remain: US Treasury yields are high, the dollar is relatively strong, and liquidity conditions are not loose. Treasury accumulation is an incremental positive factor but is unlikely to independently reverse macro-driven volatility. Going forward, two key points to monitor are: first, whether these companies can continue to secure financing to maintain purchases; second, whether ETF inflows can continue. If the funding relay breaks, the coin price is likely to enter a volatile correction. $BTC $ETH $NMR 12.93, up 18.8%. The AI sector surged directly from 7.27, reaching a high of 15.46. Focus on the RSI, which has soared to 86.45, indicating extreme overbought conditions, and the price has completely detached from EMA7 (10.67). Such a vertical surge reflects emotions pushed to the extreme, and a large bearish candle could appear anytime to shake out positions. In terms of strategy, those holding should take profits gradually on rallies; those not yet in should absolutely not chase, wait for a pullback near 10.6 before reconsidering.
$CRV 0.3952, up 20.12%. It rallied from 0.169 all the way to near the previous high of 0.405. Although it also rose 20%, the RSI is only 63.3, indicating prior consolidation and a relatively healthy rise. EMA7 (0.355) is providing support, with resistance at 0.405 above. A light position can be tried on a pullback near 0.355; if it breaks below 0.338 (EMA30), exit first and avoid forcing a breakout at 0.40.
Summary: NMR is a pure short squeeze with very high risk; CRV is technically more stable but has reached previous resistance. The market is hot, don’t get carried away, control your trades.
#NMR #CRV #MarketAnalysis I dare say, BTC is very likely to break below 84000 next!
Why do I say this? Look at the current position of 84029, which is just a little above the 84000 support level. This kind of position is most prone to a false breakout followed by a sharp drop. Also, the 24-hour high of 84346 has been tested twice without breaking through, indicating strong resistance above.
I previously lost 200,000 U because I didn't believe this and always thought it would rise, but I ended up trapped at the peak. Now I've learned my lesson and follow the trend.
My trading plan: If it breaks below 84000, immediately open a 5000 U short position, stop loss at 84346, target 83500, with a risk-reward ratio above 2:1. If it breaks through and holds above 84346, reverse to a 5000 U long position, stop loss at 84000, target 84800. No holding positions without stop loss.
Of course, this is just my judgment; the market is always right. If wrong, stop loss. $BTC #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% ZEC Retreat Signal: Whale Discount, Regulatory Encirclement
On Hyperliquid, Lee Goon Wang placed a limit sell order of 15,000 ZEC yesterday, nominally about $23 million, quoted $30 below market price, a discount of about 2%. Today, the position was liquidated with 1,740 transactions, cashing out about $22.96 million, with a single loss of $540,000. Spot holders with tens of millions prefer to sell at a discount to exit, which is more alarming than the candlestick chart.
The market is also cooperating: ZEC fell from 1599 to 1412, moving averages show bearish divergence, MACD formed a death cross and the green bars lengthened. I opened a 30x short at 1549, with a floating profit of 275%. But the real driver is regulation: EU AMLR effective July 2027 prohibits regulated exchanges and custodians from providing privacy coin services, with ZEC privacy transfers specifically named; Dubai has already banned licensed institutions from using Zcash. European compliant liquidity will be cut off, and large funds are withdrawing early.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC. Beyond price changes, first look at why funds are fleeing.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
#ZEC再创本轮新高，逼近1700美元 Why do I expect a pullback in October?
At 20:30 on September 30 (Beijing time), the US will release the August core PCE price index. This data is very important: if it exceeds expectations, the market may start trading on rising inflation again, or even speculate on rate hikes; if it falls short of expectations, inflation pressure eases, and the market's reaction could be completely different. Doesn't this scenario feel very familiar?
Looking further ahead, November 3 is the US midterm election voting day. This time point needs attention, but whether related policies can be implemented is still uncertain.
My scenario remains unchanged: [Wave 2 pullback in October, then see if Wave 3 can start in mid-November]. If Wave 3 really emerges, I will look toward around 98,000.
So even if it rises to around 87,000 now, I will still wait for a right-side signal to look for shorting opportunities. The previous consolidation period was too short, and I believe the chip support is still insufficient.
The above content is only my personal market analysis and trading thought record, and does not constitute any investment advice. Please control your position and risk according to your own situation.$ATOM ATOM order book is sparse, yet trades are unusually frequent. Suddenly, volume surged at the low end, with OI spiking 13% in one day—this isn't something retail investors can pull off. The price is tightly suppressed within the ridiculously narrow range of $1.68-$1.79, appearing stagnant on the surface while hidden currents churn beneath.
Even stranger is the chip structure: top traders hold 59.8% long positions, but active sell orders exceed buy orders by nearly 170,000 contracts. Smart money is holding firm while active sellers are dumping. This divergence has only one explanation—someone is using time to gain space, accumulating quietly.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% Reality gave me a lesson
This HUMA trade, I admit defeat.
When I entered the short position, I thought my logic was airtight—technicals, sentiment, and capital flow all looked bearish. But the market reversed sharply, and my floating loss hit -30.65%. It’s not that I didn’t set a stop loss; it was just triggered and then the price V-shaped back, as if it was targeting my position specifically.
Honestly, it’s not that the market was so wild, I just trusted my own judgment too much. I kept thinking "this time is different," "it’s dropped so much it must bottom," "no one will chase the highs anymore," but the market taught me with a single bullish candle: in a leveraged market, subjective judgment is the most expensive tuition.
What you think is the top might be someone else’s starting line; the panic you see might be the main force accumulating. The market never follows your script; it only exists to eliminate those who are too certain.
I’ve already cut this position, and the lost money is the lesson: don’t fight the trend, don’t fight liquidity, and especially don’t trade on "I think" in a leveraged market.
Staying alive is more important than making quick money.
The market is always right; the only one wrong is me. Next time, admit the mistake first, then act. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 Repeatedly tested $84,374 but not surpassed｜$BTC still stuck in a consolidation range
Current market shows BTC at $84,044, up 1.24% in 24 hours.
Highs and lows remain between $82,557 and $84,374.
The Asian session high of $84,374 was tested multiple times in the afternoon, at 16:00, 17:00, and 18:00, but no sustained break above was achieved.
Currently reported back near $84,000, it looks more like the upper supply is being absorbed.
On-chain data shows $84,000-$85,000 is the densest range of long-term holder positions.
Price is still grinding near the lower edge of this dense zone; breaking out requires passing this hurdle first.
The latest full day for the US spot BTC ETF shows only +$31.1 million, daily pace remains $999 million → $31.1 million.
Weekly buying continues, daily buying is thin, unable to support acceleration beyond the upper edge.
Funding rates are near neutral; during the 17:00 push, contract open interest rose, but price then fell back and open interest did not continue expanding.
Spot continues to trade within the $82,557-$84,374 consolidation range.
Watch for sustained transaction relay above $84,374.
If it’s just an upper wick poke and then pullback, treat it as a false breakout test first.⚖️ The SEC just said token buybacks might not count as securities
It published 9 new FAQs on crypto assets, following its March guidance with the CFTC and the August Regulation Crypto Assets proposal $BTC
The interesting part: for tokens that aren't securities and sit on a live network, announcing a buyback program doesn't count as a promise of "essential managerial efforts" — same read for network upgrade commitments or promoting current utility
$ETH Open the market software, and the screen is full of good news. ETFs are seeing net inflows into $SOL, on-chain activity is hitting new highs, and upgrades are lining up one after another.
Turn around and look at the price—it's sideways.
There’s a bunch of good news, but the price doesn’t acknowledge it. Most people see this contradiction as the main force suppressing the price, but I see it differently: the expectations have already been fully priced in. News spreads along the chain; expectations don’t queue up. The money was already invested before the official announcement. When the news comes out, the positions that were set up are just waiting for others to lift them.
So veterans read the news differently from beginners. Beginners rush in when they see good news, thinking the story is just starting; veterans first ask, "Has this story already been told?" The day it hits the headlines is the day to settle accounts. You think it’s the opening, but others have already left the scene.
There’s a rough way to judge if it’s expensive: don’t look at the price, look at the reaction. The same good news causes a first surge, then a smaller rise the second time, and by the third time, it opens high but closes low. The market tells you in three rounds that the money for this story has already been collected.
The hardest part is this phase: fundamentals are all good, but the price just doesn’t move. Those who can’t endure grumble and leave; the money circles around outside, finds everywhere expensive, and then comes back to endure again.
SOL is stuck at such a threshold. Good news only lasts a few days; the price responds to the next story that no one has talked about yet. The market where a few make big money always appears when everyone thinks there’s no story. The difficulty lies exactly here.Today's snapshot: Tariffs implemented, gold plunges, investment banks collectively turn bullish on risk assets
Trade front: The US and China have reached an agreement to reduce $60 billion in tariffs on goods, further weakening the safe-haven logic; spot gold plunged nearly 4% intraday, with funds clearly withdrawing from safe-haven assets.
Macro divergence emerges — a Federal Reserve governor believes the labor market is strong enough to handle rate hikes, so expectations for rate increases remain unchanged; however, JPMorgan's trading desk ended its tactical neutral stance on US stocks and turned bullish, focusing on technology and banking sectors, citing stronger-than-expected economic activity, resilient consumers, solid corporate earnings, and stable bond yields.
In summary: geopolitical tensions are cooling, safe-haven assets are falling, investment banks are raising risk appetite, while the interest rate outlook remains uncertain. Friday's nonfarm payroll data is the next key pricing event. $BTC $GOLDVolume Frozen! Retail Investors Buy More as Prices Fall, Is There Really a Counterattack for BTC and ETH?
1. Market Overview: Weak and Grinding, a Turning Point Approaching
On the 4-hour chart, BTC and ETH are still suppressed by the upper trendline, with weak and soft rebounds. The candlesticks maintain a typical weak consolidation. KDJ is dulled at low levels, active buy and sell volumes shrink simultaneously, and trading is as light as water. The market is stuck before a suppressed turning window.
2. Capital: Leverage Cleared, Retail Investors Catching the Knife
Open interest has dropped sharply, funding rates are near zero, and previously crowded long leverage positions have been liquidated in a chain reaction. The danger signal is that the long-short ratio rises during the decline instead of falling, indicating retail longs are continuously entering against the trend. This often means the main players may use the last drop to break through retail investors' psychological defenses.
3. Sentiment: Freezing Point Torment, Waiting for Clearance
No new funds, only existing capital fighting to clear floating chips. Any rebound is easily cut short. Panic and greed intertwine, sentiment drops to freezing point—this is the inevitable pain of a mid-bull market pause.
Core Summary:
Short-term correction is not over, but long-term bulls are not dead. Institutions watch quietly in the shadows, whales cash out at highs, retail investors blindly bottom fish. Please put away greedy bottom-fishing, strictly control positions, and respect the market with light holdings. Endure this bloody chip cleansing; only after the main players complete the washout will the true desperate counterattack come.
$BTC $ETH [Old Chive Observation]
$SEI had a rather interesting reaction today.
REX Shares and Osprey updated the SEI staking ETF related documents, listing October 23 as the new effective date.
However, after the news came out, SEI actually fell back from the nearly $0.08 level of the past few days, with a 24-hour drop exceeding 10% at one point.
This indicates that the market has already priced in part of the ETF expectations in advance.
What we really need to watch now is not "whether the ETF is positive," but whether funds are still willing to pay a premium for this expectation before October 23.
Entry: $0.069–0.074
Take profit: $0.077 / $0.082 / $0.088 / $0.096 / $0.105
Stop loss: $0.065 4.63 billion USD liquidated in an hour, with long positions accounting for 370 million, nearly 80%. The 12-hour and 4-hour data are similar, indicating that the bulls were too crowded earlier, triggering a chain of stop-loss forced liquidations during the decline.
Last Sunday saw over 500 million USD liquidated on shorts, and this Monday started liquidating longs, which counts as deleveraging. There’s no particularly big negative news; it’s more that leverage is cleaning itself up.
But don’t rush to be optimistic. On the macro side, the 10-year US Treasury yield is still high, pressuring no-yield assets. Last week, spot ETFs saw inflows of 2.39 billion USD, the strongest this year, but the funds were mainly concentrated in the first two days and then declined daily afterward, so sustainability is questionable.
Whether the market can recover after deleveraging depends on two things: whether 83,000 can hold and whether ETF funds can continue to flow in.
I’ve been trading T from 86,000 down to 83,000, lowering my cost basis. Now I shouldn’t get stuck anymore. Stay steady and keep observing. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Do you know why most retail traders lose money in a choppy market?
Because they always think "the next candlestick will break out," then frequently open positions, only to get stopped out repeatedly. BTC is currently at 84029, with resistance at 84346 and support at 84000—this is a typical consolidation range.
What do real experts do in this kind of market? The answer is: nothing. Waiting is more important than trading. I once lost 200,000 U because I couldn't stand the boredom and kept trying to do something.
The correct approach is: wait for a breakout above 84346 and then go long with 5000 U, stop loss at 84000, target 84800; or wait for a break below 84000 and then go short with 5000 U, stop loss at 84346, target 83500. Never hold a position without a stop loss.
Remember: trading is not about who trades more, but who makes fewer mistakes. $BTC #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% $BTC stands at 83,986.9, up 1.25% in 24 hours. During this rise, short liquidations reached $19.9 million, significantly higher than long liquidations of $12.29 million, indicating that short covering is driving the price. Poland's debt forecast is a slow variable in European fiscal expansion, pointing to normalized sovereign borrowing, which is favorable for the narrative of scarce assets in the long term, but its transmission is quarterly and will not change capital flows in a single day. Our data is slightly bullish: funding rates for three periods are 0.0065%, 0.0038%, and 0.0068%, with no overheating in leveraged longs; contract open interest is $7.83 billion, stablecoin supply is $313 billion, and on-exchange funds are ample. Notably, the options put/call ratio is 1.29, higher than the open interest ratio of 0.94, indicating some are buying protection amid the rally; DVOL at 35.5 is low, meaning protection costs are cheap and the market is not panicking. Judgment: short-term bias is toward testing above 84,350. Bearish conditions: price falls back below 82,500.1 and funding rates turn negative, which would mark the end of this short covering and invalidate the bullish bias.$ENA
When yields rise, will ENA's stablecoin model become stronger or more fragile?
Reserve yields may improve, but hedging costs and liquidity risks will also increase. If supply expands and yields remain stable, the model is more robust.
If funding rates reverse, redemptions increase, or collateral becomes concentrated, I would downgrade my assessment.9.29 $QNT Analysis
$QNT's recent rally has been very strong. I mentioned it would continue to rise, but I guessed the start correctly and missed the end! This round of rally is mainly driven by positive news, chip structure, and contract funds together. Institutional cooperation news brings narrative expectations for tokenized deposits, attracting off-exchange funds to enter concentratedly.
The coin itself has a relatively small circulating supply, so it doesn't require huge capital to leverage a significant market move. After the price started, a large number of short positions were liquidated one after another, and the forced buy orders from these liquidations further pushed the price, accelerating the upward movement.
After the surge, it pulled back and consolidated with fluctuations, currently holding above the Bollinger middle band, with short-term funds maintaining net inflows. However, a considerable amount of profitable positions have accumulated in the short term, and the selling pressure at previous highs above should not be underestimated. Even though bullish sentiment dominates, avoid chasing the price directly; in this game-like market, controlling position size and risk management to prevent pullback risks are essential.
Trading suggestion: Buy around 200-220, target 250-310.
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 🧭 BTC MARKET LEVELS TO WATCH
BTC is around $82.9K, with the market testing the lower end of the recent range. The key near-term battle is between $82.5K support and $84.4K resistance.
➤ $BTC: $84.4K resistance | $82.5K support | $81.3K if weakness continues
➤ Reclaim: $84.4K → $85.5K–$86K
➤ Breakdown: Below $82.5K → $81.3K, then $80K
📉 Momentum remains fragile, with higher Treasury yields and upcoming U.S. inflation data keeping pressure on risk assets.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead 一句话：你不是在选币，你是在选你以为自己知道的东西。 加密市场最大的风险，从来不来自某个项目跑路。它来自你脑子里那些未经检验的“我以为”。 以下五种币，碰之前先把认知陷阱搞懂。 第一种：Meme币——你以为在“早期参与”，其实在给KOL做退出流动性 Meme币最大的认知陷阱是：你以为你买的早。 数据不撒谎。FOMO平台375,740名用户中，95.2%亏损或盈利不足100美元，只有229人盈利超过1万美元，占比0.06%。Solana链上Meme币交易者，90天内仅6.25%盈利，整体净亏损12.6亿美元。 TRUMP迷因币更典型。近988,905名散户买入后合计损失38.1亿美元，价格从高点下跌97%，每3名买家中就有2名以亏损收场。 你看到的是KOL的盈利截图，看不到的是95%沉默的亏损者。你以为你在早期埋伏，实际上你在为早期地址和机器人接盘。 一个精致的App不会让诈骗代币变得合法，KOL的进场行为也无法告诉你，你的买入是否正在成为他们的退出流动性。 第二种：高FDV低流通币——你以为在“价值投资”，其实在给内部人解锁买单 这类币的认知陷阱最隐蔽：你以为流通量20%是“稀缺”。 $XRP 24h +1.2%, the bullish direction is set: focus on 1.532 and 1.417
$XRP is currently at 1.5082, 24h +1.2%, I am directly bullish — this morning at 10:12, the SPAC filing submitted to the SEC was named, the market only moved from 1.5094 to 1.5058, -0.24%, the market ignored it, but I did not.
First, the daily RSI is 56.6, slightly strong, MACD golden cross above zero line formed for the 7th day, the bullish structure remains intact.
Second, the long-short account ratio is 2.4072, funding rate 0.0001, leverage has not taken over this rise.
Third, the market shows high-level divergence pullback, BTC 84038 stands above ma30 80340, US stock crypto concept stocks average -2.05%.
Moving averages are the main anchor, MA7 crossed above MA30 for the 6th day, the bullish arrangement was not broken by the 7d -4.25% pullback.
Resistance above: 1.532 (24h high)
Support below: 1.417 (daily MA30)
So I am bullish, the action is direct — if 1.532 is not broken, enter at the current price 1.5082; if it breaks below 1.417, cut losses and exit, if it does not break, hold until 1.532 before discussing taking profits.
Like and follow, I will alert you as soon as the market moves.
$XRP $BTCThe high Beta that dared to rise the most a few days ago continues to pay back today: HYPE has dropped from the historical high of 98 back to around 88, FET has been pressed down from 0.26 to 0.224, and SUI has fallen from 1.29 all the way back to 1.15. All three have experienced acceleration; now what really matters is not elasticity, but who stops hitting lower lows first in each round.
#HighBetaCoolingDown
#FundsStartEliminatingWeakDirections
$HYPE is currently around 87.8, with today's low near 88, and yesterday's low of 86.78 has become the most important short-term defense line; only after holding this and retaking 89.7–90 can there be a chance to continue repairing up to 92. Until it truly reclaims 94, it cannot be said to have restored its previous strength.
$FET is currently around 0.224, with today's low at 0.2237; 0.222–0.224 is the first support; looking upward, 0.234–0.235 is the initial target, and only after firmly standing above 0.24 can the recent continuous weakening structure be considered reversed. The previous high of 0.26 has clearly left trapped positions.
$SUI is currently around 1.15, with today's low at 1.141 and high at 1.181; 1.14 is the first defense; only after reclaiming 1.18 can we look toward 1.20–1.22, while breaking below 1.14 may easily test 1.10–1.13.
This lineup: HYPE defends 86.8, FET defends 0.222, SUI waits for 1.18. The most important thing in the high Beta downtrend phase is not to catch the lowest point, but to wait for it to stop continuously making new lows first. BlackRock Redefines the Value Chain of AI × Crypto
In September, BlackRock released a report that makes the relationship between AI and digital assets more concrete: when AI Agents can independently complete tasks, they not only generate text and call models but also continuously purchase data, call APIs, rent GPUs, subscribe to software, and conduct a large number of small-amount, high-frequency, around-the-clock transactions.
In other words, the next wave of crypto users may not be humans but machines. This scenario requires at least five layers of infrastructure: the intelligence layer (LLM, Agent, MCP, A2A), the payment layer (stablecoins, x402, etc.), the settlement layer (public chains or dedicated payment networks), the asset layer (tokenized RWA, stablecoins, on-chain collateral, and computing power certificates), and the resource layer (GPUs, data centers, electricity, and bandwidth).
The most insightful point in the report is: LLMs break language into Tokens, blockchains break value into Tokens, and both share the same underlying structure—transforming complex reality into machine-readable standardized representations. So the focus is not on finding an "AI token" but on whether there is a true closed loop of value transmission among these five layers. $BTC $ETHKanye West recharged $ETH to the exchange again after 11 months 😂
1 hour ago, he withdrew 1445 ETH from Aave and then deposited it into the exchange, worth 3.91 million USD. This is the first recharge operation since 2025.10 (the peak of the last bull market).
Currently, he still holds crypto assets worth 26.7 million USD on-chain, wallet address 0xaF184b4cBc73A9Ca2F51c4a4d80eD67a2578E9F4#财报观察员：Micron's earnings report is approaching, AI storage demand becomes the focus
Ci Ge's thoughts on Micron are as follows:
Micron will release its earnings report after the market closes tonight, which is a major test for AI storage demand.
The company's own guidance is revenue around $50 billion plus or minus $1 billion, EPS $31 plus or minus $1, and a gross margin of 86%. The market expectation is slightly higher, with revenue between $50.8 and $50.9 billion, EPS 31.5. Last quarter was $41.46 billion, which means a quarter-over-quarter growth of about 20%. This number is not low, so the market expectations are already quite full.
The key is not how much was earned last quarter, but the subsequent guidance for HBM and DRAM. Micron's HBM4 has already been shipped in batches to major customers and has sent certified samples to multiple end customers. Demand from AI data centers is still pushing forward; the question is whether this momentum can continue into fiscal year 2027. The earnings report will need to be watched for HBM demand, price trends for DRAM and NAND, whether the gross margin can hold at 86%, and guidance for the next quarter.
Currently, BTC is fluctuating around 83,500, with 85,000 as short-term resistance and 82,000 as support. Micron's earnings report is another variable this week besides PCE and non-farm payrolls. In terms of operations, avoid heavy positions betting on direction before the earnings report; wait for the results to land, see how the market prices the AI narrative, then decide whether to enter. $BTC $ETH $MU