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🌅 A new day is underway!
$ETH pushed up to the $2,700 area, while $BTC fell just short of $85,000.
🌙 Overnight volatility was elevated, but the overall move leaned bullish.
I kept 1/5 of the position open. I considered closing everything, but decided to sleep without monitoring the chart — and that turned out well. The position is now back at break-even and in profit.
For now, I’m looking to hold this position as long as the market continues to support the longer-term setup.
#DailyOrbit BTC fell below 83000, ETH lost 2650, SOL dropped to 118!
In the afternoon when opening the market, BTC has already dropped from 85199 to 82952, with a low of 82716. ETH fell to 2648, SOL was even more severe, retreating all the way from around 125 to 118. Yesterday we were still discussing a breakout, but today the bulls have been beaten down with no fight left.
However, I noticed a detail: the 15-minute MACD green bars of the three coins have all started to shrink, and BTC and ETH even show signs of short-term momentum recovery. Note, this only indicates that the decline speed has temporarily slowed down, and it cannot be confirmed that the bottom has appeared yet.
BTC's MA20 is now at 83154, MA10 at 83011, and the price is still below the moving averages. I plan to observe support around 82700; if it breaks again, I will continue to watch 82500 and 82000. Only if it recovers above 83150 will I consider trying short-term long positions, with a rebound target first at 83550.
ETH has already touched 2635, currently at 2648, with MA20 near 2650. Whether it can stabilize above 2650 next is critical; if it holds, then look at 2670; if 2635 is lost, be cautious of further decline to 2600.
SOL is currently at 118.34, very close to the intraday low of 117.89. MA20 is at 118.94, and MACD has just shown a slight recovery. If it climbs back above 119, I will watch for resistance near 120; if it breaks below 117.89, I will not enter for now.
US stock futures are weakening, and gold has also shown a significant pullback.导语 资金流入放缓与短线止盈交易此消彼长。 本文所提及市场、项目、币种等资讯、观点及判断，仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 撰文 0xWeilan @ eMerge IS 上半周资金继续猛攻，下半周资金流入放缓，抛售加剧，BTC周内呈现先涨后跌走势。 本周市场的核心矛盾，在于利率继续加码与现货资金流入和持仓收缩同时发生。美国两年期与十年期国债收益率共同上行，ETF通道则维持净申购。在这一背景下，$BTC BTC价格周回落2.52%，市场正在检验新增需求能否持续承接卖压。 虽然宏观金融环境依然在恶化，但依据价格上涨后持仓各方的表现，EMC Labs判断，周期视角中BTC先于以往周期，进入修复期的置信度仍在提升。 宏观金融 美联储9月16日将联邦基金利率目标区间上调25bp至3.75—4.00%，并在声明中强调经济活动稳健、通胀仍然偏高。9月23日公布的美国9月综合PMI初值升至58.4，服务业活动与制造业产出同步扩张。增长韧性与成本压力并存，意味着市场仍需面对进一步政策收紧的风险。FedWatch数据显示，年内再增两次加息的概率已经超过50%。 国债市场则呈现长短端共同上行、长端升幅更大的温The rotation trade is quietly rewriting what "altcoin season" means. As capital leaks out of meme coins, three public chains are being repriced not on hype but on whether they have a new story to tell: $ADA, $SUI and $OP. Each is running a different playbook. $ADA's core is technical upgrade plus governance. Leios, zero-knowledge work, scaling and on-chain governance are being pushed continuously, and the market's attention is shifting from "long-standing public chain" to a sharper question — caThe four characters "trading system" are often understood by many as a set of indicators plus a set of parameters.
That's not the case. What the system truly manages are three other things: when to enter the market, how much to trade at once, and when to admit a mistake and exit. By fixing these three things in advance, during trading there's only execution left, no need to repeatedly negotiate with yourself each time.
And a system that can run long-term has an extremely uneven profit distribution. Most trades contribute little or even lose money; all profits are concentrated in a very few trades. Yet no one knows in advance when those few trades will appear.
So the cost of holding onto a system is having to accept long boring periods with no gains. Skipping over these dull periods means skipping the tail end of the profits as well.
My approach is simple: the rules are written down, and when triggered, I act according to the rules without extra judgment on whether the trade is worth it—because that layer of judgment itself lies outside the system.
——————————————
I am Sunspot, an independent trader, MIX indicator developer, same name across the web, thank you for following.Greed index at 74, funding rate turns positive, is the $PUMP long position continuing the rally or just taking over the losses?
Here's the answer first: short-term bias is bullish, but this is a contrarian trade against the MACD, not a trend trade. The reason lies in the funding side. $PUMP surged 9.80% in 24h with a trading volume of 77.4M, funding rate +0.0050% — longs have started paying to hold positions, indicating that active buyers are willing to pay a premium for leverage, and funds are siding with the bulls. However, structurally there are hidden risks: MA5=0.005029 has crossed above MA20=0.004999, but the price is stuck at 0.004885, meaning the price has pulled back below the moving average cluster; RSI is only 50.1, exactly mid-level between bulls and bears, and MACD histogram -4.214e-05 still shows bearish momentum. This means the rise is driven by capital rather than indicator resonance; if the funding rate continues to rise and longs become crowded, the probability of a stop-loss spike increases simultaneously.
In terms of operation, buying on a pullback near the lower Bollinger Band at around 0.004689 is safer, but the current price is already some distance from the lower band. Enter gradually in the 0.00482–0.00489 range, close to MA20 support. Take profit 1 is at the middle Bollinger Band 0.0050 round number (also the dense area of MA5/MA20), take profit 2 is at the upper Bollinger Band 0.00531 previous high resistance. Stop loss is set at 0.00466; breaking below the lower Bollinger Band indicates the moving average golden cross has failed and the bullish structure is broken. The fear and greed index at 74 is in the greed zone, so positions chasing highs must be kept small. Sigh, sisters, is this really the end of this wave? I checked my phone and saw $BTC, $ETH, $ZEC all dropping, the entire crypto market is red today.
Look at the account in my screenshot, ZEC current price 1551, my short opened at 909, floating loss -706%, lost 128U, margin left only 31U, liquidation price stuck tightly at 1914. But honestly, it's much better than a few days ago at -826%, at least it hasn't worsened.
But what I want to say today is not to hold on stubbornly, but to advise everyone — don't blindly chase shorts.
Why? ZEC rose from 800 to 1698, more than doubled, now it has only pulled back about 100 dollars, less than 10%. This drop is nothing in this rally. Also, the long-short ratio shows longs still account for 73%, retail investors are still desperately going long, shorts are not completely hopeless. Chasing shorts at this time can easily get caught by a rebound.
What you can really do is scalp.
Resistance above is at 1600-1650, short when the rebound meets resistance, targets at 1570, 1500. Support below is at 1500-1570, go long when it pulls back and stabilizes, targets at 1600, 1650. Whether long or short, enter at the position, take a bite and run, never heavy positions, never fight to the end.
I used to die by the words "hold on stubbornly," holding from 800 to 1600, turning scalping into a one-sided trade. Now I understand, for a strong manipulative coin like ZEC, only scalping can survive.
Sisters, do you think ZEC will continue to fall or rebound next? Let's chat in the comments about how to scalp. 🧋💀#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 If you ask me about the most critical support level for BTC right now, I can only say it's 82,000.
It has been fluctuating for the past few days, and this morning it also surged to 85,000 but was resisted and fell back. The current price is around 83,000.
82,000 was a resistance level that kept pressing the price during the previous rally. After breaking through, now it depends on whether it can turn the previous resistance into support.
If 82,000 holds, BTC will continue to fluctuate; if it doesn't hold, a pullback is expected.#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件
Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi just proposed a "7-day reopening plan": if the US meets the conditions, the Strait will resume navigation within seven days. Trump's immediate response was: "I refused."
In plain terms, Iran wants to ease sanctions first, then open the gate — lifting the maritime blockade and unfreezing assets, all of which were promised by the US in the June memorandum. The US stance is: I hold the chips, no rush. Nearly 40 million barrels of oil passed under US escort in the past 48 hours, with Trump claiming "full control."
What does this mean for traders?
1️⃣ Short-term oil price volatility intensifies: negotiation news fluctuates, each update can move prices by several points. Brent crude once fell below $98, down nearly 11% from this month's high.
2️⃣ The key variable is "patience": Iran's economic pressure is rising, and the US has motivation to suppress oil prices before the midterm elections. UBS judges: the negotiations themselves suppress oil prices; if a substantive breakthrough occurs, Brent could quickly return to the $80 range.
3️⃣ Don't bet on one-sided moves: core disputes (sanctions, assets, Strait control) remain unresolved short-term; "fighting while negotiating" is the main theme.
🎯 My judgment: stalemate probability is greater than breakthrough. In trading, managing position size is more important than betting on direction. After losing my parents, I kept telling myself I had to build a better life instead of accepting the circumstances I was given. I put my limited savings into crypto, believing I could change my future through trading. But the market taught me another lesson. $BTC and $SOL positions were liquidated again, and watching the liquidation levels move closer was brutal. To rebuild the margin, I went back to physical work—lifting boxes, carrying materials, doing whatever honest work I could find. The moSpot ETF data is showing meaningful buying pressure across the major assets: 🟠 $BTC: +$142M 🔵 $ETH: +$91M 🟢 $SOL: +$79M ⚫ $XRP: +$25M That’s a sizeable amount of capital entering the market, yet price action remains relatively weak. Why? ETF inflows don’t automatically mean an immediate price breakout. Existing selling pressure, profit-taking, derivatives positioning, leverage and macro uncertainty can absorb fresh demand. Right now, the key levels I’m watching are: $BTC → $82K–$83K support |Bitcoin repeatedly faces resistance around 85,000 amid rising macro risk aversion; bulls need to hold the 82,600-81,689 range to stabilize their position. In terms of operations, pay attention to the effectiveness of resistance near 83,600 during rebounds; it is not recommended to blindly chase longs at the current level. If volume-driven drops break below 81,689, be cautious of further declines toward 78,590 (the 200-day moving average). This week's PCE inflation data and non-farm payroll report will be key variables determining the short-term direction. Maintain light positions and wait for signal confirmation before making decisions.BTC inflows continue, but crowding risk is worth watching
The capital side is not entirely pessimistic. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows for six consecutive trading days, with a single-day inflow of $190.7 million on September 24 and a cumulative net inflow of about $2.84 billion over six days. However, it should be noted that when BTC previously hit an eight-month high, open interest contracts once reached the 100th percentile over 90 days, and the funding rate was at the 97.8th percentile, indicating a high market leverage crowding. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidations amounted to about $192 million, with long and short liquidation sizes roughly equal. BTC long liquidations were about $12.4 million, and no large-scale long liquidations have occurred yet, but if key support is broken, the risk of a chain deleveraging cannot be ignored.Here’s the key question now: Will $BTC lose the $82K area? If that support fails, the next major zone could be around $79K–$80K. A deeper correction could open the door toward $75K–$77K. But if BTC stabilizes around $82K–$85K and buyers step back in, we could see another push toward $87K–$90K. 🚀 I’m personally expecting a little more downside first, so I’m keeping my take-profit around $81.8K rather than chasing every move. The last few sessions have been exhausting, and I’d rather protect capi🚨BREAKING: Global money supply just hit a RECORD $103.4 TRILLION.
The 4 largest economies (US, China, Euro Zone, and Japan) added roughly $1 TRILLION in August alone, the 10th straight monthly increase.
Historically, rising global liquidity has been a major tailwind for Bitcoin and risk assets.
$ZEC $QNT $OKB Finally, the waterfall has arrived; enduring the ordeal is the only way to see the turning point.
At last, this wave of pullback has come, and I'm grateful I didn't compromise halfway.
Many around me advised me to cut losses and exit, facing a floating loss of over 9,000 U, the pressure was overwhelming, but I chose to hold firm and didn't easily give up my chips. Now, breaking even is no longer just an empty phrase.
But I still remain clear-headed; in my view, this rise is still just a bear market rebound. The more intense the rally, the more it seems to be creating opportunities for the bears.
Market signals have already changed; the short-term cycle shows consecutive lower lows, and the price has fallen back below the moving average.
Currently, 2640 is a critical support level; if it breaks down effectively, the next target is 2600; if volume increases on the dip, look further down to 2550, and even down to my entry position at 2506.
On the upside, 2660 has turned into the first resistance level; only by firmly reclaiming 2700 will the bears' structure weaken.
The hardest part of trading is not making profits, but enduring the torment of floating losses and not being swayed by others' opinions.
👉 Do you think this pullback will deepen further or quickly recover lost ground?
(This is only a personal review record and does not constitute investment advice) #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 🔥 $93M+ IN LEVERAGED LONGS — BROTHER MAJI’S ACCOUNT UNDER PRESSURE
On-chain tracking shows Brother Maji’s leveraged portfolio remains a major point of interest, with approximately $93.4M in exposure concentrated across three perpetual long positions.
The positions are showing different levels of risk as volatility continues to challenge the market.
📊 POSITION BREAKDOWN
🟢 $ETH — 25,000 ETH | 25x Leverage Currently the only position showing unrealized gains. However, the narrow liquidation buffer and accumulating funding costs could quickly reduce profitability if ETH experiences another pullback.
🔴 $BTC — 200 BTC | 40x Leverage Losses are increasing, while the elevated leverage leaves limited room for adverse price movements. A sharp decline could bring liquidation risk significantly closer.
🔴 $HYPE — 136,000 HYPE | 10x Leverage Unrealized losses continue to build. With altcoins generally more sensitive to liquidity shifts and sentiment changes, volatility remains an important risk factor.
🌐 THE BIGGER MARKET PICTURE
Bitcoin ETF demand, rising long-term Treasury yields, and upcoming Micron earnings are creating competing forces across risk assets.
• BTC ETF inflows have reportedly approached $3B over seven consecutive sessions, highlighting institutional demand. • Rising U.S. Treasury yields are increasing financing pressure and keeping liquidity conditions in focus. • Micron’s upcoming earnings report could provide fresh insight into AI-related memory demand and technology-sector sentiment.
⚠️ TRADER’S PERSPECTIVE
A bullish market outlook does not automatically make an aggressively leveraged portfolio safe.
Leverage magnifies both directions. Even when the broader trend remains positive, a sudden liquidation cascade or sharp bearish candle can erase unrealized gains and rapidly increase account risk.
The real challenge isn't simply predicting direction — it's maintaining enough margin to survive volatility.
#BTC #ETH #HYPE #BitcoinETF #TreasuryYields #Micron #CryptoTrading #OnChainData #LeverageRisk The flue has already experienced flashover, and the load-bearing walls of the entire building are cracking. This is not a bottom-fishing opportunity at all; this is a classic sign of imminent fire collapse!
Alarms are blaring, and the pressure gauge on the air respirator is going crazy. Watching a bunch of people in the market desperately rushing in, I can only feel incredulous. Thick smoke is pouring out from all the ventilation openings of $BCH, heat waves are hitting hard, and some are even shouting about bullish news and a reversal?
As the first team entering the fire scene, my first reaction is always to check the door handle temperature and find an escape route, not blindly play the hero.
The current market temperature is out of control; the RSI has directly crashed into the extreme oversold zone at 20.2, and the lower Bollinger band at 303.7 is like a fire door warped by the blaze, teetering on the edge. Although there are signs of a heatwave rebound and rekindling in the short term, before establishing a proper firebreak, any attempt to rush in to save others is a death sentence.
The miners and their old crew have long put on their gas masks. Based on the current network energy consumption and shutdown electricity costs, the 300 integer mark is their firewall baseline. Once this defense line is completely consumed by the fire, no one can contain the chain liquidation blaze.
I only try to spray a dry powder extinguisher at the extreme edge where the water hose can cover and the safety rope is secured. If the fire situation worsens even slightly, the safety rope is immediately retracted, and I evacuate without hesitation.
- Target: $BCH 🟢
- Entry: 303.0 - 307.0
- TP1: 325.0
- TP2: 346.0
- SL: 295.0
The safety guide rope is fixed, and the oxygen tank has only one bar of pressure left. Once it falls below the 295 firebreak, the entire building is completely abandoned, and everyone evacuates the fire scene immediately.🧑🚒🧯
#StrategyPlaybook🚨 $93.4M IN LEVERAGED LONGS AT RISK
Big Brother Maji is carrying some huge leveraged positions:
🟠 $BTC — $38.64M at 50x
🔵 $ETH — $35.28M at 30x
🟣 $SOL — $19.49M at 20x
The portfolio is currently sitting on around $5.83M in unrealized profit. 💰
But there’s a major risk: all three positions share the same margin.
One sharp market-wide move lower could quickly put significant pressure on the entire portfolio. ⚠️
Leverage amplifies both gains and losses.
#DailyOrbit $BTC fell below $83,000, with high-volatility assets retreating first.
According to the current OKX spot market, $BTC is quoted at $82,897, down 2.18% in 24 hours; $ETH down 2.70%, $SOL down 4.88%, $SUI down 7.05%, $ZEC down 6.39%.
The decline is progressively larger from mainstream coins to high-volatility assets, as funds are cutting positions with higher volatility first.
BTC perpetual positions are about $2.408 billion, with funding rates slightly negative; ETH funding rates are also negative, and long positions chasing the rally have not quickly rebuilt during the pullback.
The spot side is not completely without support.
In the past 7 days, the exchange's daily average net outflow was about 16,100 BTC; the US spot ETF still had a net inflow of about $2.39 billion last week, but short-term holders' MVRV is about 1.15, with an average unrealized profit of 15%, leaving room for profit-taking during the pullback.
If BTC continues to trade below $83,000, high-volatility assets will face position reductions first; if the price returns above that level and volume shrinks, it currently looks more like position clearing rather than a full withdrawal of spot buying.
The total market capitalization fell about 2.35% over the same period; this round is not a correction of a single coin but a synchronized contraction of risk positions.The first time I encountered $BTC
was when a friend shouted in the group
saying just buy with your eyes closed
I got impulsive and rushed in
The night I bought it was pretty good
But the next morning when I woke up
It was so red that I put less seasoning in my instant noodles
Later I messed with $ETH
Spent half a day on the wallet
Got stuck transferring funds
After the fee was deducted
I stared at the screen dumbfounded
Felt like a big sucker
Then I heard people hyping $SOL
Saying it’s ridiculously fast
I tried a little money
The speed is really fast
But the drops don’t negotiate
I couldn’t sleep all night
Since then I’ve learned my lesson
Only play with spare money
Don’t borrow money
Don’t go all in
Don’t stay up late watching the market
Take group tips as jokes
No matter how hyped a project is
I first ask myself if I can afford the loss
Don’t rush to buy the dip
Don’t rush to chase the rise
If it flies away, it flies away
If stuck, then stuck
Getting the mindset right
Is more useful than any indicator
This circle changes every day
Today it’s hot, tomorrow it’s cold
Chasing back and forth
Only tires yourself out
Earned little money
Lost a lot of hair
Paid tuition
Stepped into traps
Now I don’t seek to get rich quick
Just hope not to go to zero
Being able to sleep at night
Is better than anything
That’s about it
All just my own ramblings#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 $SNDK dropped sharply from 1786.7 to 1712.6 within 15 minutes, then slightly rebounded before falling again, currently priced at 1713.8. The short-term bears continue to exert pressure, with current short positions having a breakeven price of 1725.3, take profit at 1705, and stop loss at 1740.8.
The key now is whether the 1712.6 low can hold. The price has revisited the previous low area, bearish momentum persists, and the resistance on the rebound is obvious. The high point of 1786.7 is difficult to reach in the short term.
The levels are clear. The first resistance overhead is between 1725.3 and 1740.8, with 1786.7 as the high of this round; failure to break through means maintaining a weak downward trend. The critical support below is 1712.6; a smooth break below will target the take profit level at 1705.
Positions will not be closed casually just because the price nears the low, nor will there be a reversal to go long here. Whether this decline can deepen depends on whether the 1712.6 support can be broken. Short positions should focus on 1712.6; if it holds, consider taking partial profits; if broken, continue holding and target 1705.
$SNDK is currently in the second bottoming phase within a downtrend, with the short-term bearish structure intact.$BTC fell below 84,000, where is the real "surprise" in the market?
📌 PCE expectations: 3.7%, core 3.3% trending upward.
📌 The key is the month-over-month core PCE: only 0.2%, the Federal Reserve says to wait. If it jumps above 0.3%, an October rate hike is basically locked in. The market currently prices the probability of an October rate hike at about 66% to 70%.
📊 【Nonfarm payrolls are more troublesome: a game of huge divergence】
August came out at 162,000, expected only 55,000, a threefold difference. This time expectations range from 60,000 to 100,000, a huge divergence. If strong, rate hike expectations ramp up; if weak, the market actually breathes a sigh of relief.
📉 【Current market situation: BTC and ETH have already dropped】
Bitcoin fell below 84,000, $ETH dropped below 2,650. This September rally from 76,000 to 87,000 relied on sentiment recovery after the rate hike was implemented, not on improved fundamentals. When the bond market fluctuates, Bitcoin fell from 87,000 to 83,000, dropping faster than anyone else.
💡 If PCE starts to ease, even by just 1 point, that would be the real surprise! The market's tolerance for hawkishness may be higher than imagined.
(Source: OKX Planet 09/28 )
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 $GRT $GRT 0.0315, up 11.83%. It doubled from 0.012 with a very violent trend. But RSI is 88.58, extremely overbought, and the price is seriously detached from EMA7 (0.027). Such a vertical surge could be followed by a big bearish candle washout at any time. Those on board should take profits in batches on rallies; those not on board should definitely not catch the falling knife, wait for a pullback near 0.027 before watching.
$HBAR 0.105, up 12.48%. L1 sector, pulled from 0.064 to 0.11 then retreated. RSI is 72.43, already overbought, EMA7 (0.095) is short-term support. The resistance at 0.11 is the previous high, currently stuck in the middle. Light positions can be considered near 0.095 on pullbacks; if it breaks below 0.084, exit first, don’t chase hard at 0.10.
$CASHCAT 0.198, up 17.25%. New coin, dropped from 0.317 to 0.15, now pulled back to 0.2. EMA30 hasn’t appeared yet, RSI 45 looks not high, but new coins have extremely severe upper and lower wicks, purely capital wash trading. This kind of new coin is just a casino; never touch contracts, spot trading is recommended to just watch, don’t gamble on size.
Summary: GRT and HBAR are both overbought, watch for profit-taking; CASHCAT new coin is just for watching. Don’t chase highs, protect your principal.
#GRT #HBAR #CASHCAT #MarketAnalysis $BTC $ETH Looking at the 4-hour K-line, the price has truly broken below the lower Bollinger Band. This drop was quite sharp, with the price moving far away from the lower band. The bearish sentiment has basically been fully vented, and the market is now in an oversold state. Such an overextended decline is hard to sustain; technically, there is a need for a rebound and correction, and the price has the momentum to return to the middle Bollinger Band. Although a large bearish candle just closed, the K-line has a long lower shadow. It can be seen that when the price hit the low, there was considerable buying support, and the bears hit a hard resistance here. After sufficient chip exchange at the low, the selling pressure in the market will significantly ease, which is a bullish signal after a shakeout. At this point, do not impulsively chase shorts; wait for the market to stabilize and for the bulls to counterattack. #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
BTC: Long in the 82800–82500 range, target near 84100
ETH: Long in the 2630–2610 range, target near 2700 $BTC $ETH weekly K failed to close above 850, daily K touched 850 twice and dropped, price hit 830 and dropped for the third time, this segment did not meet expectations
Since it was wrong, retreat in time. If this position breaks and accelerates,
there is a certain probability it will reach around 80,000
In the first half of 2026, two waves of bulls were killed, and in the second half, two waves of bears will be killed. So far, only one wave has been killed, so personally, I still see an upward trend later
SanDisk 1900 not moving means expecting a breakout acceleration
Now it’s not going well, down to 1720, all positions exited
Still the same saying, wealth lies in patience and yielding, poverty lies in stubbornness and confrontation
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $NEAR short position has entered, 50x leverage with small capital for speculation.
The asset ranked 17th by market cap is considered safe by many, but I am bearish instead. No matter how big the market cap in crypto, once funds withdraw, the downtrend is unstoppable.
Now the price has slightly pulled back, the short position has gained some floating profit. High leverage trading should never bet on going to zero; small positions for trial and error, strictly managing stop loss and take profit.
The market never lacks opportunities, but once the principal is lost, there is no longer the right to speculate. Respect the market, do not blindly hold heavy positions. $NEAR This time, the market taught me a lesson
ZEC fell, I should have been happy. But staring at the screen, I couldn’t smile at all—the short position is still there, the trap not yet cleared.
This is probably the most ironic scene in trading: the direction was right, but no money was made.
Shorting altcoins was wrong from the start. Not wrong to be bearish, but wrong in the choice of tool. The volatility of altcoins is like an uncontrollable beast, with spikes up and down and violent rebounds, the risk-reward ratio is ridiculously bad. Winning ten times isn’t enough to cover one liquidation; this isn’t trading, it’s gambling with your life.
“Bearish but don’t short” is a life-saving maxim in front of these monster coins.
I finally understand why veterans only touch BTC, ETH, and US stocks. It’s not that they’re conservative, it’s that they’ve figured out how to survive. Liquidity is deep enough, trends are relatively rational, you can cut losses when wrong, and hold on when right. The candlesticks of altcoins depict human emotions and cut into obsession.
After this, I won’t touch altcoins anymore.
The market is the best teacher, but it’s never gentle. It won’t reason with you, it will only force you to remember one thing at the cost of real money: lessons teach people, once is enough.
Fortunately, I still have the chance to remember this time. Next time? Not necessarily so lucky.
BTC, ETH, and US stocks are the boundaries I set for myself. Beyond these boundaries, no matter the stories, I won’t be tempted.
$ZEC $BTC $ETH
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 $HBAR is biased towards the long side. Open interest surged 41% in one day, and it expanded in the same direction as the price, indicating that this batch of new leverage is driven by long buyers chasing prices. Short liquidations amounted to only $140,000, which is negligible compared to the $100 million trading volume. This rally is not a short squeeze but rather new longs actively absorbing sell orders. The fee rate remains steady at the 0.0100% benchmark, indicating that longs have not yet paid a premium, so it does not provide directional reasoning. What really needs attention is the cost basis of these new longs. They chased in between 0.09284 and 0.10708, with stop losses naturally stacked below. As long as the pullback does not break the previous high, this layer of stop losses will not be triggered and will instead act as support. The RSI at 76 is in a strong zone; it can be dulled within the trend and does not mean a top has been reached. Acceleration signal: breaking above 0.10775 with open interest continuing to increase. Bearish reversal condition: price falls back while open interest does not decrease and drops below 0.09284. New long stop losses will trigger in a chain reaction, turning this 41% increase into selling pressure.🚨 GOLD & SILVER BREAKDOWN
Gold has confirmed a head-and-shoulders setup, with the neckline breaking around $3,943 — roughly 5.2% below the current price.
If that level is reached, another ~$1.5T could potentially be wiped from the metals market.
Silver has also lost the $54.51 level, leaving another ~11% downside in focus.
Gold and silver may be viewed as defensive assets, but they still react heavily to macro conditions.
Real yields, the U.S. dollar, and Fed policy.
#DailyOrbit Most memecoins die after the initial narrative pump. Cash Cat didn’t.
$CASHCAT launched on Robinhood Chain as pure lore, a revival of the company’s early “Cash Cat” mascot that never made it to the final brand. No utility promises. No roadmap theater. Just a fixed 1B supply, burned LP, and a story that actually has historical roots.It ripped to ~$0.31, dumped hard, and is now sitting around $0.18 with ~$180M mcap. What’s interesting isn’t the chart , it’s the staying power. Gold has lost all its gains, $ETH holds steady at 2644.75, I lean bullish
Gold has given back all its gains, $ETH only slightly down: current price 2644.75, 24h -2.596%. I'm clearly bullish: falling less than gold means relative strength.
ETF is buying real gold and silver; Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of $690 million last week, with BlackRock's ETHA taking $326 million. Fees are near zero, spot-led, not leveraged hype.
After the news of gold giving back gains hit, ETH only dropped from 2653.51 to 2645.68, just -0.3%, with no volume surge: volume ratio compared to 30-day average is only 0.794.
Technically no breakdown, daily RSI at 63.1 in the strong zone, open interest barely changed by 0.01%, long-short account ratio 2.8153, bulls more eager.
High-level divergence pullback, no reckless rush, only 14/75 in the whole market are up, median change -4.772%, breadth is terrible, which is my biggest counter-evidence to being bullish.
Resistance above at 2685 (1h SAR pressure here)
Support below at 2539 (daily MA30 holding)
Bullish stance unchanged, enter at current price, cut losses if it breaks 2539, hold if it doesn't and target 2685.
Like and follow, I'll alert you first when the market moves.
$ETH $BTCThe first time I bought $BTC
was because the convenience store owner downstairs told me about it.
He said this thing could be used as retirement money in the future.
I went back and transferred 500 yuan.
The next day after buying, it dropped.
It dropped so much that I even switched to cheaper cigarettes.
Later, I tried $ETH.
I fiddled with the wallet for a long time.
The transfer got stuck.
Once the fee was deducted,
I stared at the screen in a daze,
feeling like a big sucker.
Then someone talked about $SOL,
saying it’s as fast as riding a rocket.
I tried a small amount.
It’s really fast,
but it also drops without warning.
I didn’t sleep well all night.
Since then, I’ve been honest.
Only play with spare money,
no borrowing,
no going all in,
no staying up late watching the market.
I treat group chat trade calls like comedy.
No matter how hyped a project is,
I first ask myself if I can afford the loss.
No rushing to buy when it drops,
no chasing when it rises.
If it flies away, it flies away.
If stuck, then stuck.
Getting the mindset right
is more useful than any indicator.
This circle changes every day.
Today it’s hot,
tomorrow it’s cold.
Chasing back and forth,
only tiring myself out.
Not making much money,
losing a lot of hair.
Paid my tuition,
stumbled into traps.
Now I don’t seek to get rich quick,
just don’t want to go to zero.
Being able to sleep at night
is better than anything.
That’s about it.
All just my own random thoughts#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 $BTC average price ~$83,650, 24h decline about -1.2%, range $82,722-$85,247. Analysis output below:
▍📉 BTC Quick Report: 84K tug-of-war on the third day, quarter-end funds tight
Currently at $83,650, down 1.2% in 24h, has been grinding in the 82,800-85,200 range for three consecutive days. Quarter-end + US Treasury yield at 5.11% hitting a 19-year high + October rate hike probability rising to 64.8%, multiple pressures suppress bulls. But last week ETF net inflow was $2.39B (strongest since last October), exchange BTC weekly net outflow 31,800 coins, institutional base holdings remain firm.
▍📍 Key Levels
Resistance: 85,247 (7-day high) / 85,000-85,300 (dense lock-in zone) / 87,000 (previous high retest).
Support: 83,300-84,000 (core support zone, break indicates short-term weakness) / 82,832 (7-day low) / 81,500-82,000 (post-break retest zone, last defense line for bulls).
Funds: Volume expanded 77% but price sideways, both longs and shorts exploded at $70K level, strong manipulation signs obvious.
▍🎯 Operation Plan
Entry: Take two positions between 83,800-84,200, first position no more than 30%; conservative wait for 82,800-83,000 second dip to add; aggressive wait for volume breakout above 85,300 and hold to chase. $XAG Brothers, today's market is quite thrilling! Both gold and silver are plunging, with silver crashing more than 3 points, currently dropping to around 61.8.
But the most dramatic part is here! Two huge whales actually dumped nearly $29 million today to bottom-fish silver! Now their combined long positions total over $47 million.
Highlight for everyone: these two whales opened their positions at an average price between 63.1 and 63.4. Now with the continuous decline, they are floating a loss of over $900,000. Even more intense, the liquidation prices for these two long positions are astonishingly identical, both at 60.18! That's less than a 3% drop from the current 62.
And it’s not over yet. Between 59.68 and 59.74, another big player has placed limit orders worth over $4 million ready to catch the dip. It seems many still see this as bloodied chips and are preparing for a big move.
Gold has also dropped nearly 2%, but the bottom-fishing funds are only a bit over $2 million, clearly the battle in silver is fiercer.
Now the concentration of large holders is terrifying, with the Top 10 addresses holding nearly 66.5% of the open interest contracts. The chips are highly concentrated, with open interest close to $290 million, indicating both bulls and bears are aggressively adding positions. It's a battle of the gods! $XAU I continue holding a short position on ZEC, bearish in the long term
My current thinking hasn't changed. ZEC is a veteran privacy coin, and with increasing regulatory pressure, its survival space and narrative capability are being squeezed.
From my average entry price to the current price around 1556, the account has some unrealized losses, but still within a tolerable range. The position is 2x low leverage, with a liquidation price at 3230
There is still more than a 100% gap from the current price, so no liquidation in the short term, giving me enough time to wait for the long-term logic to play out.
Regarding the overall market, I think BTC and ETH will pull back in the short term. The earlier sentiment has mostly been released, incremental funds haven't followed, and technically a shakeout is needed. So for now, just hold the ZEC short position and patiently wait for ETH to fall into the “golden pit”
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Damn brothers, went all in shorting $ZEC!
All in with 400k short on $ZEC!
The whales look like they want to keep crashing it.
Hurry up and crash! The short position is already open!
I entered $ZEC around 1536.
Currently marked near 1556.
Temporarily floating a loss of over 5000 U.
10x leverage, full position.
Contract value about 400k U.
Liquidation still around 2023.
So with this small fluctuation now,
I’m not rushing to make moves.
The key is whether it can continue to break through above.
The previous high already reached 1683.
Even touched 1695 at a higher point before.
But twice near 1700,
it never really held steady.
Now it’s pushed back down near 1550 again.
This is starting to get interesting.
It went from a few hundred to over 1600.
The weekly chart is almost a straight line up.
What’s most feared in this kind of market?
That everyone thinks,
it’s just a pullback and will continue rising.
But when it really turns down,
it won’t give you time to react slowly.
So I’m watching two levels now:
1700 above,
1535 below.
If it can’t break 1700 again,
and 1535 gets smashed through,
then I’ll really see if it has a chance to accelerate downward.
And today it’s not just $ZEC loosening up.
$NEAR has started going down.
Now near 5.11,
down over 5 points intraday.
Previous high was 5.581.
It’s already dropped quite a bit from the high.
I opened a short at 5.164.
Finally from floating loss to a small floating profit now.
Though not much gain,
at least it shows
that the previous blind upward push rhythm
has started to change.
Looking at $SUI,
today even more direct.
Near 1.18,
down over 6 points intraday.
Previous high 1.295.
Now also pushed down from the high.
So I’m increasingly thinking
this altcoin wave might be starting to cool off collectively.
Before, each was pumped like there was no cost.
Now if one breaks support first,
the sentiment behind will easily loosen together.
But still,
this $ZEC position is big,
and the previous trend was indeed strong.
I can shout loudly,
but risk control can’t be ignored.
If it really holds above 1700 and accelerates up again,
then it still needs to be handled.
But at this position now,
I just want to wait for it to give one more drop.
Whales, you’ve pumped it enough before.
Now let the shorts catch a breath!!
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 Love is a beam of light, so green it makes you anxious~ The large A-share market has been continuously pulling back recently~ Can we still enjoy the National Day holiday properly?
But I think this is just a normal bubble squeeze. In the first half of the year, chip and AI themes pushed stock prices too high, but the market can't celebrate every day. By the second half, as the Shanghai Composite Index dipped to around 3880 points in late September, funds are now broadly retreating, trading volume has shrunk, and the market is undergoing a fierce correction.
This kind of volatile adjustment is expected to continue for a while because the current trading volume is clearly shrinking, and funds are shifting from blindly speculating on concepts to focusing on solid financial performance.
I feel it's hard for the market to return to the previous stage where blindly buying tech stocks guaranteed big gains. Next, we will enter a strict profit verification period, and those pseudo-tech stocks relying solely on hype will be continuously eliminated.
True hard tech with core technology and tangible performance, as well as quality sectors benefiting from policy-driven domestic demand recovery, will be the main focus for funds to regroup. Short-term pain is for long-term gains; maintaining a steady mindset is most important now.
DYOR The familiar storyline is back:
Crude oil rises
Stock market falls
Gold falls
Bitcoin falls[Environment Section] First check the current weather, then decide whether to go out
I guess no one ignores the weather when they want to go out and have fun,
I personally take it quite seriously.
Is the first step of technical analysis drawing lines?
I don't think so,
it's about assessing the environment.
A golden cross,
in an uptrend is a signal to accelerate,
but what about in a sideways range?
Look at the environment,
three questions:
1. Is the major trend up, down, or sideways?
2. Is the trading volume expanding or shrinking?
3. Is the volatility at a high or low level?
In a trending market, follow the trend;
In a ranging market, buy high and sell low;
In an extremely volatile market, reduce positions or even stay out and observe.
Many losses are not due to bad strategies,
the root cause is applying trend strategies in a ranging environment.
The environment determines the applicable boundaries of a strategy; check the weather first, then decide what clothes to wear.The storage trio collectively plunged pre-market, where is the promised super cycle?
Tonight before the US market opens, storage stocks are leading the decline: $SNDK down over 3%, $SKHYNIX down over 3%, $MU and Western Digital down over 2%.
Let's clarify the reason for the drop first: it's not that the storage logic is broken, but the overall market is dragging down. US stock futures are all down, US Treasury yields remain high, oil prices are rising, and high valuation sectors are taking the hit first. Plus, these three had large gains recently, so profit-taking is heavy and any slight disturbance triggers selling.
But the news is actually not bearish at all:
• The shortage is still escalating, both DRAM and NAND are in short supply, Q4 price increases are basically set, spot prices are expected to rise another 10%-20% in September;
• SK Hynix's Solidigm is about to IPO, aiming to raise 15 billion with a possible valuation of 150 billion, and plans to build the first NAND factory in the US. If this materializes, it will be a major revaluation for SK Hynix;
• Micron's first batch of India-made memory modules have been delivered to Dell, with production capacity exceeding demand.
Separately: Micron is the most stable, with price hikes and India capacity coming online, the pullback looks more like a buying opportunity; SK Hynix has the Solidigm event driving it, but the valuation restructuring is unclear in the short term whether it's positive or negative; SanDisk is the most volatile, up 1800% in 12 months, and when it falls, it’s ruthless. Those wanting to bottom-fish should first weigh their positions carefully.
The storage bull market is still ongoing, but even a bull market can't stop corrections. Tonight, watch the overall market mood first, don't rush to catch a falling knife.
This is just my personal market view and does not constitute investment advice On September 28, according to on-chain analyst "Ai Auntie," the address casualpig.eth resumed building a position in Ethereum (ETH) after a year. A few hours ago, this address withdrew 1,754 Ethereum from the cryptocurrency exchange Bybit, valued at approximately 4.65 million USD.
The last Ethereum transaction record for this address was between August and October 2025, when it bought at a high price of about 4,751.74 USD and recharged back to the exchange when the price dropped to 4,433.10 USD, with an estimated final loss of about 449,000 USD.ZEC at $1550: Are you chasing privacy or just taking the bag?
Grayscale's ZEC spot ETF has launched, NU7 vote passed, price surged from 400 to 1697—but your $1550 is right in the middle of a retracement. Is this wave really the "privacy bull market just starting," or the last push by institutions to offload via the ETF?
Let's look at the surface: all good news stacked up, yet price dips first as a sign of respect.
Just last Saturday, it hit a high of 1697, then dropped to 1536-1615 on Monday. Your $1550 is exactly at the midpoint of the retracement. Market cap is 26 billion, ranking near the top ten. This isn’t a low-level breakout just starting; it’s a high-level consolidation after the main uptrend.
Daily chart shows overbought pullback, 4-hour forms a high-level box, volume contracts compared to the peak day—momentum is stalling, digesting.
First: The ETF is here, but it buys a "crippled version" of ZEC.
Grayscale converted the old Zcash Trust into the NYSE Arca spot ETF (ZCSH), launched August 25 with a $300 million start, and DCG-related parties made a $100 million physical subscription. Institutions can now buy ZEC through brokerage accounts without self-custody of shielded addresses.
Sounds like great news? Here’s a harsh truth:
The ETF only holds transparent address ZEC per its prospectus—it buys price, not privacy.
In plain terms: Wall Street wants ZEC’s beta, not its soul. The anonymous payments and shielded transactions you believe in, the ETF doesn’t touch a penny of.
You buy the privacy narrative; institutions buy another packageable token. These two things have never been the same.
Second: NU7 vote passed, but this is a "futures bullish" event.
Holder vote passed overwhelmingly at 98.9%, retaining Bitcoin-style halving, block time changing from 75 to 25 seconds. Testnet around October 6, mainnet target November 5.
Sounds exciting? Calm down:
Mainnet isn’t live yet, features unverified.
From "old privacy coin" to "faster private settlement layer," this is a narrative upgrade, not yet realized.
Market has already priced in the November upgrade.
The day the upgrade is realized is often the day the good news is fully priced in. Think about the last time you chased "upgrade expectations"—what was the result?
Third: The May vulnerability was the real starting point of this rally.
In May, the Orchard circuit old vulnerability was found; on July 28, the Ironwood upgrade closed the old pool and rebuilt the shielded pool from zero. The market panicked and dumped first, then realized "supply integrity fixed," and price started the main rise from that low.
This is a "crisis reversal." But note the timeline—from late July to now, price has nearly quadrupled. The benefit of the fix was long priced in; now it’s emotion and FOMO driving the rise.
Shielded transactions account for 29%, anonymous sets are expanding—this is real data and deserves respect. But fundamentals are much healthier than a year ago ≠ price is cheap now.
Bull vs. Bear, you decide:
On the bullish side:
- US spot ETF launched, institutional access opened
- NU7 vote passed, November mainnet upgrade
- Paradigm disclosed holdings, Cypherpunk Technologies keeps accumulating
- Shielded transactions at 29%, real usage growing
- Monthly chart still strong, weekly chart holding above 1500, main uptrend just resting
On the bearish side:
- ETF doesn’t hold shielded coins; Wall Street wants beta, not privacy
- EU privacy coin regulatory pressure remains on schedule (restrictions by 2027)
- Equihash has relatively thin hash power vs. market cap, security budget mismatched
- Realized price far below current price, heavy floating profit, quick retracement pressure
- Perpetual contract volume and open interest crowded, high leverage, flash crashes cause liquidations
Key level 1550 is the retracement midpoint, not a bargain.
Upside: 1600 round number → 1690-1700 (this round’s supply zone, dense profit-taking and trapped longs) → only a firm break above 1700 signals new highs
Downside: 1530-1540 (today’s low zone) → 1500 (psychological and dense zone) → 1450-1460 (September 24 low) → 1320-1380 (pre-breakout acceleration platform)
What is 1550? It’s the first pullback level after a price rise. Not the floor, but mid-mountain.
Trading strategy
Aggressive:
Light long at 1550, stop loss below 1490-1500. First target 1600 to take half profit, second target 1680-1700. Exit at 1600 first, don’t be greedy.
Conservative:
Wait for 1480-1520 to consider long, stop loss at 1420. Better entry is 1320-1380—if not reached, stay out, not missing out. Heavy buying at 1550 is the real miss.
Breakout:
Only consider chasing the second leg if volume confirms a firm break above 1700 and pullback holds above 1650. Fake breakouts, abandon immediately, don’t be a hero.
Bearish:
Current quiet shorting has mediocre risk-reward, easily squeezed by NU7/ETF inflows. Only consider reversing if daily closes below 1450 with volume, targets 1380, 1320.
Positioning rules:
Single trade risk no more than 2% of total capital
Leverage 3-5x; above 10x is like gambling on a flash crash
If BTC breaks below 82,000 and accelerates down, ZEC likely follows, reduce positions first
Watch ZCSH for sustained net inflows—if inflows stop and premium disappears, narrative fades
This ZEC wave has "regulatory packageable privacy" well told.
Price already priced in November upgrade and institutional allocation. But remember:
ETF buys price, not privacy. Institutions want beta; you want faith.
These two things have never been the same.
1550 is for defensive rebounds, not all-in faith. Staying alive until 1500 breaks or 1700 confirms is more important than being a hero mid-mountain.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #ThisWeekNonFarmAndPCEKeyData An in-depth article: Buyback and burn altcoins, which ones are worth holding long-term?
Recently, I saw a "undervalued tokens" list based on DeFiLlama data, where many altcoins are buyback and burn types.
I briefly reviewed the profitability of these projects, focusing on their buyback and value capture capabilities.
Of course, such rankings can only serve as screening tools and cannot be taken as direct investment advice. Low PE, low PS, high revenue, and high growth are important, but you also need to consider unlock dilution, revenue sustainability, and whether the project itself has a moat.
For example, ARB, ETHFI, and LDO all have solid fundamentals, but their token value capture and buyback strength are not exactly the same; ETHFI's recent actual buybacks are even significantly lower than before.
On the other hand, $HYPE holders earned about $58.7 million in the last 30 days, with most protocol fees used to buy back HYPE, showing very strong value capture.
Personally, I pay more attention to $RAY, $AERO, and PUMP.
What really matters is not "whether there is a buyback," but:
Where does the revenue come from → Can it be sustained → How much returns to the token → Can buybacks outpace dilution.
Buyback is just a mechanism; long-term value ultimately depends on whether the protocol can keep making money.#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 $BTC Today's market: The key support was broken twice consecutively, first at 83800, then at 83400, both supports failed.
Volume increased during the decline and shrank during the rebound: indicating that the decline had active selling pressure, while the rebound was just a brief respite for trapped positions without real buying power entering the market.
👉Short-term outlook:
The original support has now turned into resistance:
First resistance: 83400‑83600
If the rebound reaches this range but still cannot break through and volume does not increase, the bears may continue. The short position target is first 82500‑82800, then further down to 82000-82300.
Many friends are still relying on the experience of the recent days' consolidation, thinking there will be a rebound at support and rushing to buy low.
But this time the market did not reverse to pick up buyers; instead, it directly turned support into resistance. Consolidation can numb intuition; when you think you are seizing an opportunity, it is often the start of risk. Respect every breakout and manage your position size carefully The first time I bought $BTC
was when a friend casually mentioned it during dinner.
He said just hold on and don’t move it.
I transferred the money that very night.
The next day after buying, it dropped.
It dropped so much that I only had steamed buns for lunch.
Later, I tried $ETH.
I fiddled with the wallet for a long time.
The transfer got stuck.
The fee was deducted.
I stared at the screen in a daze,
feeling like a rookie sucker.
Then I heard people talking about $SOL,
saying it’s ridiculously fast.
I put in a little money to follow.
It’s really fast,
but it also drops without warning.
I couldn’t sleep all night feeling uneasy.
Since then, I’ve learned my lesson.
I only play with spare money,
don’t borrow money,
don’t go all in,
don’t stay up late watching the market.
I treat group chat trade calls as jokes.
No matter how hyped a project is,
I first ask myself if I can afford the loss.
If it drops, I don’t rush to buy more.
If it rises, I don’t rush to chase.
If I miss selling at a high, so be it.
If I get stuck, I get stuck.
Getting the right mindset is more useful than any indicator.
This space changes every day.
Today it’s hot,
tomorrow it’s cold.
Chasing after trends
only tires yourself out.
You don’t make much money,
and lose a lot of hair.
I’ve paid my tuition fees,
and stepped into traps.
Now I don’t seek to get rich quick,
just to not go to zero.
Being able to sleep at night
is better than anything.
That’s about it.
These are all just my own random thoughts#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 Oh my! A fake public chain stole 766 $ETH in two hours
In the early hours of September 27, someone impersonated the not-yet-launched GIWA mainnet chain ID 9134 to set up a fake L2, complete with a bridge and batcher. After launching 39 blocks, it began submitting batches to the Ethereum mainnet. About 767.65 ETH was transferred into the bridge from 1335 addresses, and ultimately 766.25 ETH was siphoned off. DYORSWAP declared on September 28 that their own contract was not attacked and has compensated over 200 ETH out of pocket.
The scam has escalated. Now the fraud methods are getting more sophisticated; it used to be fake websites, now it's fake public chains, with browsers that look real.
The lesson is very profound; even when the project team says "the mainnet is live," you still have to verify it yourself. L1 transformation proposal combined with short squeeze, ONE surged 22.58% in a single day to reach $0.002644
The L1 transformation proposal combined with a short squeeze caused ONE to surge 22.58% in 24 hours, touching $0.002644. For those holding positions, today first watch the turnover around the $0.002644 level on OKX.
I checked the actions on Harmony this afternoon. The team proposed a plan in early September to shut down the original L1 network and pivot to AI video direction, migrating tokens via snapshot to Ethereum as ERC-20. The community has been discussing node shutdown and token mapping details these days, with spot daily trading volume pushed directly by buy orders to 18,558,000 USDT.
I browsed the OKX contract page this afternoon. Altcoin contract total open interest stopped at $3.019 billion, with the overall market greed index at 74 (greedy). ONE-USDT perpetual open interest reached $3.338 million, and the funding rate was hit at -0.332%, meaning shorts pay interest to longs every period. I don't hold spot base positions myself; such deep negative funding rate assets tend to be squeezed from both sides around settlement. I won't open long positions in contracts now; I'll wait for the funding rate to return to neutral before considering.🪙 BTC
On BTC, we're seeing a break out of the structure ✔️
It's unlikely we'll manage to get back into the structure and hold there on the current candle, so I'm personally preparing to catch a bounce from the nearest support zone at 81,650–80,740.
That said, I'm not marking a new resistance zone yet either. It's better to wait on that, so I'll come back with an update later 🤝 $BTC 【Crypto Water Cooler · Duty Notes】
BTC today is like an old cadre wearing a fitness tracker: price holding at 83,000, RSI slightly strong, moving averages in a bullish arrangement, health check almost all green, yet firmly refusing to run a marathon. About $187 million worth of liquidations occurred across the network in the past 24 hours — the market isn't very exciting, but leveraged players are already starring in an action movie.
ETH is around 2,670, with sentiment reading "slightly tired." The good news is ETF funds are still flowing in, and the upgrade story continues; the bad news is the short-term spotlight has been stolen by BTC, like year-end bonuses not fully distributed yet, first pulled aside for review. Don’t keep asking "when will it take off" every day — it needs time, not urging.
DOGE is the most worry-free, dozing around 0.097. When Musk drops a meme, it can surge with a limit-up momentum; without memes, it just shouts "to the moon" with the community. Today lacks strong catalysts, so using it as a sentiment thermometer is just right.
Water cooler summary: Big brother steady, little sister enduring, little brother noisy. The market isn’t short on drama, it’s short on patience to avoid liquidation.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点