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Many people see a positive funding rate and assume that longs are paying shorts, and that the market is definitely bullish. This misconception is most dangerous in extreme market conditions. $GLMR is a typical example now: current price 0.010784, a 24h surge of 60%, yet the funding rate reports +0.0000%, indicating that there are almost no leveraged longs willing to chase and pay on the perpetual side. This rally looks more like it is driven by spot or low-position chips rather than contract funds clustering.
From a technical perspective, MA5=0.008754 is already far above MA20=0.00744445, so the trend is indeed upward, but RSI=91.7 has entered severe overbought territory. The price 0.010784 has broken out above the Bollinger upper band at 0.00934266, with a 30-candle amplitude as high as 45.44%, increasing the risk of spikes and liquidations simultaneously. The MACD histogram +0.00032 is still bullish, but volume is only 5.1M USDT, typical of a low-liquidity pump structure. The Fear and Greed Index at 70 (Greed) also indicates overheated sentiment. A neutral funding rate means longs and shorts are not yet in extreme opposition; once the price surges and then falls back, leveraged longs are likely to be targeted for stop-outs.
My stance remains to follow the trend and be bullish, but I will not chase the current price; I will wait for a pullback near the Bollinger upper band to confirm support. I am the mid-term intelligence guy.
Just saw the news that Strategy (846,000 coins) and Strive together increased their holdings by 2,305 $BTC this week, with total holdings of listed companies reaching 1,273,000 coins.
Saylor firmly holds the top spot, Strive enters the top five, combined with the recent single-week ETF inflow of 3 billion, the treasury of listed companies plus traditional finance are working together, making the mid-term base positions very solid.
But the intelligence guy reminds you not to get carried away. The short-term selling pressure of 84,000-85,000 has not disappeared, the high pressure of US Treasury yields remains, and the giant whales’ profit-taking can hit at any time. Although 2,305 coins are firm, it is only a slight adjustment relative to the 840,000 stronghold.
Conclusion: Long-term chip lock supports a slow bull market, the trend is not broken; short-term macro and profit-taking resonate, hold the base positions, add more if the pullback does not break through!
$ETH
$ZEC
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 AI capital expenditure could reach $1.2 trillion by 2027. Seeing this number, my first reaction is no longer excitement but depreciation.
After data centers are built, chips, servers, network equipment, and power supply assets will start to depreciate. Companies are frantically purchasing this year, but in the coming years, they must cover these costs with real revenue. No matter how fast model call volumes grow, if the price per inference drops faster, there may still be a difficult gap between revenue and computing power investment.
On Reddit, u/Far_Base_1147 described this round of frenzy as “collective psychosis,” while u/Solidplum101 directly focused on “token cost.” The words are a bit harsh but hit the market’s unease. The $1.2 trillion will create winners in power, cooling, fiber optics, and financing, but will also leave many underutilized data centers. Capital expenditure can create prosperity, but whether it can generate returns depends on when the depreciation schedules start to speak.
#高盛预估2027年AI相关资本开支约1.2万亿美元 A couple of days ago, it was said that the neighboring $BNB had listed $HYPE spot, which meant the support for $ASTER weakened, but today Aster's OI actually hit a new high.
The monopoly of Hyperliquid's market is being genuinely challenged for the first time.
Fortunately, HYPE's buyback has always been strong and hasn't slowed down at all: yesterday alone, 10,400 tokens were burned (about $957,000), and the protocol revenue in the past 30 days is close to $60 million, the buyback engine keeps running as usual.
This is the ballast stone of its fundamentals; even with competitors coming, it won't stop. Everyone dares to hold on continuously.
This week, HYPE has been hovering near the previous high of 97.24 for a week, RSI at 62.6 is healthy—volume shrinking at the top, the direction choice will be in the next few days, everyone please pay close attention Sunday afternoon ledger review — $BTC is grinding near the daily high, and the US spot Bitcoin ETF just recorded the largest net inflow of the year last week.
According to public data, the US spot Bitcoin ETF absorbed about 2.4 billion USD in the week ending the 25th, turning the full-year 2026 net inflow from negative to positive, roughly a bit over 900 million; however, nearly 1 billion on Monday and only about 130 million left on Friday, daily momentum is waning. Weekend trading is thin, so don’t assume the weekly inflow is fully priced in before tomorrow’s open. Next week still has PCE and employment data, macro remains the main theme before the October rate decision.
OKX spot is around 84,700 now, 24-hour high 84,739, low 83,818, opening price near Beijing time 84,156. Short term I’m watching if 84,740 / 85,000 can hold, with pullbacks at 84,150 and 83,800; $ETH is about 2,715, don’t just focus on Bitcoin.
$BTC $ETH #BTC #Bitcoin #ETH #Macro #ETFInflow #FederalReserve #RiskWarning
The above is personal observation only and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks, decisions should be made cautiously. Shorting against the trend, how I "exhausted" my grid bot
Family, sharing my "bankruptcy diary."
I thought I was a grid genius at buying low and selling high, choosing "ETHUSDT perpetual 10x short," investing a huge 25U, enduring 8 days and 17 hours of hard struggle...
🤖Bot's perspective: I arbitraged crazily 70 times a day, totaling 612 times! Grid profit fiercely earned +2.51U (+10.05%)! Boss, praise me!
👨💼My perspective: total profit -3.25U (-12.98%) 😇
Unpaired profit -5.76U (-23.03%), tightly clinging to my principal.
Current price 2,711, my liquidation price is 3,054.89. Now the first thing I do every morning is pray the pumpers don’t push the price up again, or I’ll be lining up on the rooftop.
Look at the BTC order next door, 100U principal also smoothly lost 11.58%.
Summary: The bot is working hard to arbitrage every day, I’m working hard to lose money. This isn’t quantitative trading, it’s a charity donation! 😭
Are there any friends also shorting? Let me see if I’m fighting alone! 👊The three faces of Meme coins: $DOGE, $SHIB, $PEPE
In the crypto world, Meme coins are like a separate track: their prices are often not driven by cash flow or traditional valuation, but are jointly priced by community enthusiasm, cultural resonance, liquidity, and attention.
$DOGE is the most established card. It wins with brand recognition and a huge community, acting as a symbol of internet-native currency. But its long-term value still depends on whether the community remains active and adoption expands; inflationary supply and extreme volatility remain a looming threat.
$SHIB started as a joke and gradually built up ecosystems like DeFi. It is no longer just a pure Meme, yet it still cannot escape the influence of sentiment and speculation on its market cap.
PEPE is even more pure: internet culture is the fuel, and community participation and attention determine its momentum. It has strong explosive power when rising, and emotions reverse quickly when the tide recedes. Liquidity, volatility, and lack of traditional fundamentals make risk control the first lesson.
Though their paths differ, the underlying logic is similar: community demand drives price. The insight from Meme coins is that attention and sentiment can become the main engine, but can also turn instantly.
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 "Pause Before the Key Level"
Bitcoin is tugging back and forth around the 84000 mark, with the price seemingly pinned within a narrow range, repeatedly tested but reluctant to give a clear direction. The short-term focus naturally shifts upward to 85000: this is not just a round number but more like a dividing line between bulls and bears. A mere touch has limited significance; only a valid breakout and a stable hold above it can open new upward space, otherwise the consolidation will continue.
Ethereum is oscillating around 2700, with a noticeably slower rhythm. Compared to previous advances, the current upward momentum has contracted, buyers are no longer rushing to chase highs, and the market seems to be waiting for new catalysts. OKB has returned near 120; although the position has recovered, it has not shown independent strength either.
Looking at the three together, BTC, ETH, and OKB have not formed a strong one-sided trend. They seem to be digesting gains after earlier rises at key price levels: testing support on one side and observing breakout willingness on the other. At this moment, price action speaks louder than predictions. Whether 85000 can hold, whether 2700 can regain momentum, and whether support near 120 is solid will determine if the next phase continues consolidation or chooses a new direction.
The market is not short of volatility, but it lacks confirmation. Pauses before key levels often carry more information than chasing rallies or selling off.
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 $ZEC is around $1,660 and only +0.41%, but the displayed volume is much larger than the earlier snapshot. That makes $1,650 a key decision area for me. I’d look for a sweep below $1,650, then a reclaim with stronger buying volume. Entry: $1,650–1,670. SL: $1,615. TP1: $1,710, TP2: $1,760, TP3: $1,820, TP4: $1,900. R:R reaches roughly 1:5+. If $1,615 fails, I’m out. Without the reclaim, I won’t force a long. I want to see buyers actually absorb the sell-side liquidity first.On DOGE's market, the strongest support and resistance are not moving averages or Fibonacci retracements, but integers like 0.10, 0.20, and 1.00. In behavioral finance, there is a concept called "integer preference": the human brain processes numbers by treating integers as natural categorical boundaries. The price difference between 0.097 and 0.103 is only 6%, but in retail investors' minds, they belong to two different worlds: "below one dime" and "above one dime." Since DOGE holders are mainly retail investors, this psychological trait is amplified enough to rewrite the market.
Opening DOGE's order book reveals this phenomenon: the order density near integer prices like 0.10 and 0.50 is much higher than at adjacent price levels. Many buy orders wait just below the integer price to be filled, while many sell orders press just above the integer price waiting to exit. These orders are not placed based on candlestick patterns but stem from a simple decision habit—"I'll add more if it drops to one dime" or "I'll sell if it rises to one dollar." When enough people act on the same logic, the integer price becomes a real supply and demand boundary: when the price falls near 0.10, dense buy orders support it; when it rises near 1.00, accumulated profit-taking orders push it back down. Support and resistance thus self-fulfill without any technical indicator endorsement.
This also explains the recurring scenario in $DOGE's market: when the price approaches an integer threshold, trading volume expands and volatility narrows, with bulls and bears exchanging positions here until one side is exhausted.500U Challenge to 1 Million | Day 15
Initial Capital: 500U
Current Net Value: 589.31U
Profit/Loss: +89.31U (Total) | -1.82U (Today)
Profit Rate: +17.86% (Total) | -0.31% (Today)
----------------------------------
In the past two days, trading unfamiliar tokens caused me to lose over 40U, bringing the account back down to just over 500U. Originally, seeing the mainstream market was stable over the weekend, I tried trading some unfamiliar altcoins, but instead of making U, I lost some. To summarize, MSTR hit a stop loss of 12.48U, AVAX 6.88U, AVNT 3.24U, ZEC 16.39U, and DOT 8.05U. These five trades alone lost 47.04U, which mainly caused the profit to be given back. These tokens are rarely traded by me, so the poor results are understandable unless blessed by good luck. Moving forward, I will stick to familiar tokens and prefer to wait rather than trade recklessly when there is no clear market trend.
SOL has been strong recently, but unfortunately, I took profit at 119 during the rise, while it surged past 122 afterward, causing me to miss out on some gains. Fortunately, I managed to recover some by buying back during the pullback. BTC is currently consolidating with no profits yet, so I will just wait.
The above is my personal trading record and insights, not investment advice! $BTC $ETH $SOL 🚨 ONCHAIN ALERT — $NEAR
Enjoy the pump, but don’t get too carried away. 👀
Wintermute just deposited 300K $NEAR to an exchange within the past few hours.
Notably, in previous instances, this MM’s flows appeared when the price was already elevated and were often followed by pullbacks. I’ve seen people compare CORE directly with DOGE and calculate a target price of around ¥48.25. The math looks convincing at first glance, but there’s a major problem: token price cannot be determined by dividing some target market value by total supply alone. The bullish argument usually goes like this: 🐕 $DOGE has a huge supply and ongoing issuance. ⛏️ $CORE has a capped supply of 2.1B tokens. 🔒 Staking locks tokens and reduces immediate circulating supply. 📈 Therefore, relatively little caOn September 26, SingularityNET suffered another security incident—2.3 billion tokens were minted without authorization, and the attacker cashed out approximately $2.29 million in a short period. This occurred just 7 days after Fetch.ai was attacked using the same method on September 19 (8.7 million FET stolen + 408.5 million NTX minted). The AI token sector was hit twice in one week. The SingularityNET attack began at 8:21 PM on September 19. The attacker first transferred about 8.7 million FET, converting all to ETH within 2 minutes and 24 seconds. Twenty-nine minutes later, they used NuNet's minting privileges to create 408.5 million NTX out of thin air. Starting early the next day, they continuously minted AGIX and WMTX in batches of 10 million tokens each, and CGV experienced 50 minting calls within 4 minutes. Over nearly 9 hours, 2.3 billion tokens were created out of thin air, but due to insufficient liquidity, only $2.29 million was realized. SingularityNET's cross-chain bridge conversionIn() function has two critical flaws: first, it relies solely on a single external account signature as the only authorization check, rather than a multi-signature mechanism; second, it has no minting limits set. In contrast, conversionOut() has strict limits, but conversionIn() is completely ignored. The same applies to Fetch.ai—the cross-chain bridge uses a single-signature authorization mechanism, and once the attacker obtains the key of the authorized party, they can directly call the minting function without any additional verification. Security company BlThis wave of positive news is not the kind of "when all the good news is exhausted, it turns into negative news"—it's a solid foundational support. $BTC $ETH $ZEC First, Xinhua News Agency just released that the two heads of state thoroughly discussed the constructive strategic stability of China-U.S. relations and major international and regional issues, and even finalized an eight-point consensus. The signals from the two most important global economies, through the cross-institutional coordination platform, are clear: high-level communication must not be broken, bilateral relations must be stabilized, and economic cooperation must be pushed forward. Simply put, in such a chaotic global situation, reaching a consensus on what China and the U.S. each needs now is essentially a stabilization anchor for the market. How long it can last is uncertain, but at least in the next few months, as long as relations remain intact, it will be a hard support for risk assets. The crypto sector, which is most sensitive to liquidity, will definitely be the first to benefit. Second, the variable currently weighing on the crypto world that cannot fully explode is oil prices and inflation expectations driven by the US-Iran situation. This meeting specifically discussed the Iranian nuclear issue and international waterway access, which matched my previous judgment: even if there is a short-term correction and volatility, it definitely does not mean the market is over. As long as risks in the Middle East gradually ease and oil and inflation pressures ease, Bitcoin could surge another 100,000 at any time. Third, the most worthwhile thing to wait for this round is not the stock capital cutting each other or sectors draining each other, but the broad rally driven by incremental funds. There are three core logics: US stocks going on-chain, US policy support, traditional finance moving on-chain, and opening the reservoir between traditional finance and crypto. Previously, the crypto world closed its doors and played; in the future, traditional finance will be the water flowing out#财报观察员: Micron's earnings report is approaching, AI storage demand becomes the focus
The leader has something to say
Micron will release its earnings report after market close on September 30, Beijing time early morning October 1. This is a key validation point for AI storage demand.
Last quarter's revenue hit a record, and the company itself guided Q4 to around 50 billion, with a gross margin of about 86%. Others are still increasing their bets, expecting next quarter's revenue to reach 58 to 59 billion. DRAM average prices are very likely still rising this quarter; the price hike is not over.
Goldman Sachs expects the top five tech companies to have capital expenditures of 1.2 trillion by 2027, and Anthropic is also expanding computing power. AI infrastructure investment is still accelerating. Whether demand for HBM, DRAM, and NAND can continue to convert into revenue and profit will be answered by Micron's earnings report.
For crypto, this is an indirect signal. If AI storage market conditions continue to exceed expectations, funds will continue to stay in hardware and cloud infrastructure, drawing liquidity away from Bitcoin and altcoins. If Micron's guidance misses, the storage sector will pull back, and risk appetite contraction will also transmit.
After Bitcoin surged to 87,000 and then fell back, this wave was missed, so no chasing the high. Wait for a pullback to see if 84,000 to 85,000 can hold, then consider light buying. The Fed just raised rates, 5-year US Treasury yields broke 5%, the high interest rate environment remains unchanged, so no heavy directional bets. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop-losses set. Good luck.$BTC LIQUIDATION MAP 👀
$87,904 → roughly $636M in shorts liquidated
$80,508 → roughly $636M in longs liquidated
When I first started trading, I used to think liquidation maps were basically a weather forecast.
Now the interesting part is how evenly the two sides are positioned. Is it coincidence, or does it suggest liquidity is sitting on both sides?
The trap for retail is getting locked into one direction. BTC can squeeze either way and punish excessive leverage.
#BTCETF7DayInflows3B $TON — around $1.56–$1.59.
Ripped $1.40 → $1.63. Cooling.
Support: $1.44 then $1.39. Lose $1.39 and the rip is done.
Resistance: $1.63.
ATH ~$1.84. That’s the magnet if $1.63 holds.
Telegram beta. Already ran.
Don’t chase $1.59 into Sunday. $1.63 close or $1.44 retest.#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元
Many people are still watching the candlestick charts guessing:
"Can BTC still rise?"
But I think what really deserves attention now is not how much BTC has risen today, but who is continuously buying BTC.
For 7 consecutive days.
Nearly 3 billion USD.
This indicates an increasingly obvious change:
BTC is transforming from a "trading asset" into an "allocation asset."
In the past, when Bitcoin rose, everyone's first reaction was:
Retail investors were FOMOing.
Now?
Traditional capital can allocate BTC directly through ETFs.
No need to study wallets, manage private keys, or actually enter crypto exchanges.
Funds just need to buy ETFs.
Behind the ETF is real BTC demand.
Many are still waiting for BTC to crash, while institutions may be slowly accumulating during the fluctuations.
This is what I think is the most easily overlooked aspect of the current market.
If more and more capital treats BTC as a long-term asset allocation in the future, then the market logic will change:
Before:
Rise → FOMO → Surge → Bubble → Crash
In the future, it may gradually become:
Capital allocation → Continuous buying → Reduced circulating supply → Price increase → More capital allocation
Currently, the entire crypto market is in the early stage of formalization. Hold your spot and enjoy the new round of dividends. Three-year whale takes $300 million ETH profit in one week, OKX spot steady turnover at $2,709.44
A three-year large holder took $300 million ETH profit in one week, with OKX spot fluctuating narrowly around $2,709.44. For those holding ETH spot, watch for turnover near $2,700 today.
At noon, I checked the on-chain data captured by Residue. This large holder withdrew 130,592 ETH from exchanges in 2023 at an average price of $2,026 and held it in their wallet for nearly three years. In the past seven days, they deposited 112,053 ETH back to exchanges in batches at an average price of $2,676, realizing a paper profit of $72.83 million; this morning, they transferred another 30,825 ETH, valued at $83.03 million.
Looking at the OKX market, the spot price rose slightly by 0.86% in 24 hours, steady at $2,709.44, with the perpetual funding rate maintained at 0.01%, and contract open interest at $1.784 billion. Despite the concentrated cash-out of $300 million, the market did not experience a sharp plunge; spot buy orders absorbed the selling pressure between $2,676 and $2,709.
For friends holding Ethereum spot, seeing early large holders who held for three years taking profits in batches above $2,670, are you planning to reduce some positions or hold on until next month? 🏠 Two Miami townhouses are about to be priced in $KAS
Bayit Development just announced it will accept KAS for two homes in the Shenandoah area — each around 2,600 sq ft with a private pool and garage
Not a gimmick, real square feet for crypto
John Murch says Kaspa's network speed and the team's belief that digital assets will play a bigger role in real estate made this happen
$BTC #BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元
Many people are still watching the candlestick charts guessing:
"Can BTC still rise?"
But I think what really deserves attention now is not how much BTC has risen today, but who is continuously buying BTC.
For 7 consecutive days.
Nearly 3 billion USD.
This indicates an increasingly obvious change:
BTC is transforming from a "trading asset" into an "allocation asset."
In the past, when Bitcoin rose, everyone's first reaction was:
Retail investors were FOMOing.
Now?
Traditional capital can allocate BTC directly through ETFs.
No need to study wallets, manage private keys, or actually enter crypto exchanges.
Funds just need to buy ETFs.
Behind the ETF is real BTC demand.
Many are still waiting for BTC to crash, while institutions may be slowly accumulating during the fluctuations.
This is what I think is the most easily overlooked aspect of the current market.
If more and more capital treats BTC as a long-term asset allocation in the future, then the market logic will change:
Before:
Rise → FOMO → Surge → Bubble → Crash
In the future, it may gradually become:
Capital allocation → Continuous buying → Reduced circulating supply → Price increase → More capital allocation
Currently, the entire crypto market is in the early stage of formalization. Hold your spot and enjoy the new round of dividends. Finally, let's wrap up with the news and what to watch next. To sum up: my view is the same as yesterday. Weekend liquidity is low, prices are consolidating around here, and the direction is left to next week's data. Liquidity: US spot ETFs don't trade this weekend, so the latest figures are still September 25 (Friday), and they've all been settled. Bitcoin saw a net inflow of about $135 million, marking the seventh consecutive trading day; Ethereum was about $87 million, marking the sixth consecutive day; Solana was about $86.7 million, the highest single-day single-day for a Solana ETF on Farside's record; XRP was about $22.6 million according to SoSoValue. From Monday to Friday, Bitcoin was about $2.39 billion, Ethereum about $690 million, and Solana about $188 million. On the enterprise side, Strategy and Strive combined increased holdings by about 2,305 Bitcoins this week. However, there's one signal to watch for: Coinglass's Coinbase Premium Index has been negative for four consecutive days as of last night, indicating that buying interest in the US is cooling down. Whether ETFs can continue to flow in next Monday will be a test. Futures Front: As of 9:30 a.m. this morning, in the 24 hours, there were about $114 million in net liquidations, with 63.1 million long positions and 50.8 million short positions, a significant comparison3000 USD is not a "new high." 3000 USD is a "recovery."
The second barrier: Grayscale's ETF puts ZEC into brokerage accounts
This is the most fundamental pricing change in this ZEC rally.
On August 25, Grayscale's Zcash spot ETF (ZCSH) was listed on NYSE Arca, becoming the first privacy coin spot ETF in the US. As of mid-September, ZCSH has had net inflows for 16 consecutive days, accumulating over 500 million USD in inflows, with net assets approaching 980 million USD, accounting for 3.59% of ZEC's total market cap.
On September 22, 21Shares launched Europe's first physical Zcash ETP in Paris and Amsterdam. On September 8, DCG exchanged about 100 million USD worth of ZCSH ETF shares for ZEC.
What does this mean? The buyer base of ZEC has expanded from "a small group of crypto-native players" to "the entire traditional financial system." Investors with brokerage accounts do not need to understand private keys or use Ethereum wallets to directly allocate ZEC.
Grayscale research head Zach Pandl provided a pricing framework: if ZEC captures 2% of Bitcoin's market share, the target price is 1622 USD; if it captures 10%, the target price is 8109 USD. $BTC $ZEC $ETH #BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 Regarding options, most exchanges in the crypto space—whether CEXs or DEXs—treat options services more like subsidiaries of existing exchange operations, rather than being built according to the logic of an independent financial market. From my own hands-on experience, I feel there are still several obvious issues with options products in the crypto world: Product design: Expiry date, strike price, contract selection, and combination strategies are all not user-friendly, making them hard for new users to understand. Liquidity: Besides BTC/ETH, many order openings for expiration and strike prices are very thin, and slippage directly kills the trading experience. Pricing transparency: Ordinary users see the option price, but it's hard to directly see core information like implied volatility, term structure, or Skew. Strategy tools: selling bulls, protective puts, straddles, wide strangles, spread combinations, etc., many platforms are still not as convenient as traditional options trading terminals. Capital efficiency: margin, portfolio margin, and collateral systems still have significant room for optimization. User education: Many exchanges have turned options into "professional user zones," rather than letting ordinary traders gradually learn how to use them. The same applies between on-chain and centralized exchanges; DEX options, perpetual, and prediction markets are all developing, but the liquidity and market-making mechanisms of options themselves have yet to form a mature unified paradigm. So I actually think this could be a huge opportunity. Options don't necessarily need to have the largest user base first; instead, they can first have the most professional and active user base. ThisIn the previous public note, I set 84,700 and 83,600 as the arbitration levels for $BTC; the public market price is about 84,597, still between the two, and neither the previous breakout nor breakdown conditions have been met. This result only indicates that waiting is still valid and cannot be packaged as a confirmed direction.
The original judgment was: after a breakout, look for a pullback to support; after a breakdown, look for a rebound pressure. Now I will continue to prioritize transaction volume and closing price over price fluctuations. If it is just a short-term spike that retracts, I will not consider it an effective breakout; only if the key level is defended or lost with volume will I adjust the rhythm.
Currently, without clear catalysts verified from public sources, I do not force writing specific projects or target prices. My approach remains to avoid guessing intermediate price levels and leave the risk to the confirmed right side. Would you wait for 84,700 to hold first, or observe the defense at 83,600 first? This is for information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.Let's take a look at Ripple. The current price is about 1.528. A bit lower than yesterday, still in the pullback after being blocked at 1.63. Liquidity is low on holidays, so prices are consolidating around here. The direction depends on next week's data. My view hasn't changed: Ripple 1.7 stop-loss. From this level to 1.7, if you want to add shorts, you can go short. To put it simply, you can short a small position now; if it rebounds, you can buy short positions in batches before 1.7; 1.7 is a stop loss; if it breaks, you must exit and don't hold positions. I'm bullish on Bitcoin and Ethereum, but short on Ripple for the same reason: each coin has its own resistance level. Ripple hit around 1.63 this week and then pulled back, with obvious selling pressure there. Take profit depends on the individual; stop losses according to discipline, manage positions well, and don't get carried away. Be cautious of spikes and false breakouts during holidays; don't panic if it rebounds, follow the plan to buy shorts; If it really reaches 1.7, follow the plan to cut losses. On the chip side, ETFs are not traded over the weekend. The latest is Friday, September 25: According to SoSoValue, the US spot XRP ETF saw a single-day net inflow of about $22.6 million, totaling about $1.79 billion, with funds still flowing in slightly. On the futures side, OKX Ripple Perpetual has about 75.1 million unclosed shares, nearly two percent higher than last night; The funding rate is about 0.007%, down a bit from last night's 0.01%. OKX's long-short ratio is about 2.67, so the ratio is about 2.67🔥Sideways trading is the scariest! $BTC 84,500, $ETH 2700, $DOGE 0.09, only use "conditional orders" without guessing the direction!
Today $BTC fluctuated between 84,300 and 84,500, with a volatility of less than 1%, a typical "digest after rise, no clear direction" scenario. In this kind of market, the worst is chasing daily ups and downs: BTC support at 84,000, only consider extending to 85,000–86,000 if it breaks above 85,000 with volume; if it can't hold 85,000, treat it as a range-bound box, reduce positions on volume-less rallies, and buy on dips without breaking lows. $ETH stuck at 2,700, with support at 2,626 and resistance at 2,787; don't assume "must break 2800" before volume increases, consider reducing positions only if it breaks 2,626. $DOGE around 0.093–0.097, no independent logic itself, it bounces with BTC stability and drops harder when BTC falls, so only suitable for conditional orders: small positions near 0.09, no chasing above 0.097, stop loss if it breaks 0.09.
Why not guess subjectively? Fear and greed index at 70 indicates greed bias, but the average 24h gain of 100 mainstream coins is only 0.07%, with 41 coins sideways; money hasn't fully entered the market, only $BTC ETF weekly inflow of 2.39 billion supports it. The correct action during low volatility is "place orders and wait for triggers": place small long orders if $BTC dips to 84,000 without breaking, reduce on volume-less break above 86,000; place trend-following orders at $ETH 2,700, watch if it breaks 2,626; $DOGE only trades the range, no breakout dreams.Woke up after a deep sleep and checked the account… The market basically handed me a 1 million RMB paycheck. 😂 This time, I finally understood something: The dangerous part of an insane trend isn't chasing the top. It's trying to convince yourself that the trend must make sense. When the market keeps moving in a direction you didn't expect, don't fight it just because your original analysis says otherwise. Look at $NEAR. I entered long around $4.497. Now it's trading near $5.09, with 10x levera$ZEC was previously found to have an issue where it could be infinitely duplicated, causing a crash. Is there still a possibility that a large portion of these duplicated coins remain in the hands of the manipulators? Let's take a look at Dogecoin. The current price is about 0.0974. Similar to yesterday, still stuck below 0.1, with small fluctuations. Liquidity is low on holidays, so prices are consolidating around here. The direction depends on next week's data. My view hasn't changed; the same routine: short near 0.1, add at 0.1, stop loss at 0.12. There is still a short distance to 0.1, no need to chase below early. Rushing to short below before the price is reached only lowers your own costs. Place pre-orders first, then talk when the price hits; no need to keep watching the market on holidays. Testing short positions means trying out small positions. I tend to be bullish on Bitcoin and Ethereum, while Dog remains short. The reason is the same as Solana: each coin has its own resistance level. Dog Dog briefly held above 0.1 from Monday to Wednesday, then fell back again. Everyone can see the selling pressure at 0.1. But when the overall trend is bullish, sentiment coins like Dog Dog are easily pulled up together, so you must hold the 0.12 stop-loss price. If it breaks, exit immediately. Don't hold tight or push your stop loss upward. Taking profit depends on the individual. On holidays, Dog is the easiest to stab in. It might prick 0.1 and then come back immediately. Just follow your plan and don't get carried away. In terms of chips, Dog doesn't have daily ETF inflows to chase like Bitcoin; it mainly depends on contract and altcoin sentiment. OKX Dog Perpetual funding rate is 0.01%, which is normal; Open interest is about 1.05 billion, about 3% higher than last night, and leverage is gradually recovering. What is particularly noteworthy is OKX Bitcoin can attract institutional money and still face pressure from rising bond yields. Why? Higher Treasury yields can make traditional fixed-income assets more attractive and tighten financial conditions. My view: don't analyze BTC in isolation. I'm watching three signals: 🔹 US 10-year Treasury yield 🔹 Dollar strength 🔹 BTC spot demand versus leveraged positioning If yields rise while BTC struggles at resistance, I'm staying cautious. If BTC absorbs that pressure and holds support, that te#BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负
In the past 7 days, CEX had a net outflow of 31,782 BTC, with Binance alone seeing an outflow of 19,500 BTC, a scale even larger than the week of last December.
Looking at the market, BTC is currently at 84,515, with almost no movement in 24 hours, only 0.61% volatility, and a trading volume just over 2 billion USDT.
The MACD across several cycles is quite split: the daily chart still shows a golden cross, DIF is above DEA, the red bars have shortened but haven't died, the 4-hour chart shows a death cross, and the 1-hour chart just formed a golden cross again. The major trend is intact, the mid-term cycle is adjusting, and the short-term cycle is rebounding.
Resistance above is at 84,860, which has been tested several times without breaking through; support below is at 82,960, and further down is the 4-hour level support at 77,876.
Interestingly, BTC has been continuously flowing out of exchanges, but the price hasn't dropped much. What does this indicate? The coins are moving from exchanges to cold wallets, reducing selling pressure. In the short term, no one is rushing to sell or buy; everyone is waiting.
This is my personal review and does not constitute investment advice!
#BTC财库优先股融资升温 $BTC I don't follow orders, I read expectations. The big players are short, might switch to long
Or maybe they just don't want to get squeezed again. Actions are actions, answers? That's another story
Two signals: Weekly chart stands above the 50-week moving average
Price stabilizes in the 78000-82000 big holder cost zone
Sounds tough, but don't shout "bullish rebound speed" just yet, shouting too early can lead to social death.
Copy the levels:
BTC support at 85000, 82000-82500; resistance at 86000-86600, 88000.
ETH support at 2700, 2630-2660; resistance at 2750-2800, 3000.
SOL support at 115-116, 110-113; resistance at 120, 123-126.
I only buy at support, don't chase before resistance. Let's take a look at Solana. The current price is about 121.9. It's about the same as yesterday, still just below this week's high and grinding. Liquidity is low during the holiday, so the price is consolidating around here. The direction depends on next week's data. My view hasn't changed: Solana can be shorted, and the 140 point remains the same. Some might wonder, I'm bullish on Bitcoin and Ethereum, so why short Solana? Let me explain the reason again. For Bitcoin and Ethereum, I'm looking at a healthy pullback after returning from the high; For Solana, I've always felt resistance near 140. Every coin has its own position; going long is about the big picture, not about going long on all coins at once. So these two views aren't actually contradictory; they're just trading according to their own positions. Operationally: Short Solana testing, 140 is resistance and also a stop loss. As mentioned before, add positions as usual, no need to add new ones at the last minute. Because the overall trend is bullish, there is a chance that counterfeit positions will be pushed up together, so short positions must be small, exit at 140, and don't hold too much. Take profit depends on the individual; stop loss according to discipline and don't get carried away. On holidays, insert many needles; place pre-orders and set stop-losses properly. Don't be scared by a single needle into selling randomly, nor be tricked into adding positions by a single needle. In terms of chips, ETFs are not traded over the weekend. The latest is Friday, September 25: the US spot Solana ETF saw a net inflow of about $86.7 million, the highest single-day inflow in Farside's history#财报观察员: Micron's earnings report is approaching, with AI storage demand as the focus. Micron's earnings come out the day after tomorrow; today let's discuss a key point: market expectation differences.
Wall Street has already priced Micron's expectations to the extreme, with revenue, profit, and gross margin all set according to the most optimistic scenario. The implied volatility in the options market is also very high, indicating traders are betting this earnings report will trigger a big move.
But the more this is the case, the more dangerous it becomes. If Micron's performance beats expectations but the stock price falls instead of rising, it means the market has already priced in all the good news, and from then on, the positive factors are exhausted. If the performance misses expectations, it will be a direct blow, causing tech stocks to collectively devalue.
For our crypto circle, Micron is not isolated. It is a barometer of the AI hardware chain. The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq has been very high recently; if tech stocks collapse due to Micron's earnings, Bitcoin will be dragged down as well. Conversely, if Micron beats expectations but funds only chase chip stocks, Bitcoin will instead be drained.
So my view is simple. This earnings report is a touchstone for risk appetite. Don't bet on the direction; wait for the results. If the market uses the earnings report to sell off, it is actually an opportunity to pick up cheap spot assets. $MU $xMU $BTC @OKX星球 Let's take a look at Ethereum. Current price is about 2,708. It rose slightly today, then returned to 2,700, but overall it remains consolidated. Liquidity was low during the holiday, so the price was grinding around here. Mainly, wait for next week's data to come out. My view is the same as yesterday, unchanged. This week, it rebounded from around 2,800. I think it's a healthy pullback with a bullish direction, so you can slowly build a bottom here. The price points remain the same: add positions near 2,500, stop loss and pressure around 2,300. Taking profit depends on the individual; everyone's cost is different, so think carefully. The key to bottoming is slowness. Buy in batches; don't buy heavily all at once; keep some and wait for 2,500. Once stop-loss is set, strictly execute it; don't remove stop-loss just because you see a spike. Weekend volume is low, so prices often drop repeatedly. Keep your pre-orders in check, don't keep watching, don't get carried away. In terms of chips, ETFs don't trade on weekends. The latest is Friday, September 25: Ethereum spot ETF saw a net inflow of about $87 million, marking the sixth consecutive day of inflows. This week, the total is about $690 million, with Farside's cumulative total around $14 billion. On the futures side, OKX's Ethereum perpetual funding rate is about 0.0042%, slightly positive; Open interest is about 601,000 tokens, slightly more than last night. Gradually, some are building positions but not overheated. OKX's long-short ratio is about 1.3, similar to Bitcoin, very healthy. On the liquidation map, the price is breaking upward Person in the Tree: A Monologue of an ETH Short Position
An ETH short position, placed at 2562, has been hanging there for almost a week. The price keeps hovering around 2685. The unrealized loss is over 3,000 U. Not too much, but enough to wake someone up in the middle of the night.
The hardest part isn’t that it’s rising. If it rises, at least you know whether to cut losses or hold on. What really tortures is this in-between state: giving a little hope every day, then pulling back again. If it continues sideways over the weekend, it actually makes me more anxious—afraid that Monday will bring a big move that wipes out the last bit of hope.
On the other hand, 2Z is strong, up more than twenty points today, reaching as high as 0.07. Small coins are still rotating upward, so it doesn’t look like the momentum is completely gone. Crude oil is also strengthening around 94. Several markets are holding firm, except this short position is getting weaker and weaker.
I really don’t want to add to the position now. Adding would feel like admitting I was wrong; not adding feels like leaving my fate to Monday. So I’ll just leave it hanging. It’s been almost a week; the shorts deserve a chance to get off the tree.
But the market never shows mercy. It only makes the wait longer and lets the feeling of helplessness slowly consume you.
#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 $ETH Don't blindly chase either the long or the short. ⚠️ The structure still looks weak on the surface, but every attempt to break support is being met with aggressive buying. Sellers push it down, large players defend the lower levels, and suddenly ZEC gets pulled back up again. That's why the current price action is so frustrating. My current ZEC short is sitting around: • Average entry: $1,472 • Current price: ~$1,548 • Unrealized loss: roughly 14% • Margin: ~$90 • Liquidation: ~$2,115 ZEC has onBrothers, Trump has once again rejected Iran's proposal. On September 26, Trump made it clear outside the White House: Iran wants to reach an agreement through a plan to "reopen the Strait of Hormuz in seven days," but "I rejected their proposal." He added—the U.S. has complete control over the strait, large amounts of oil are flowing out, and "they've lost badly." Let's first look at the specifics of Iran's plan. Iranian Foreign Minister Alagazi conveyed this plan to the U.S. through Qatar. Three core conditions: a complete halt to hostilities in the Middle East for seven days (including Lebanon), at least $12 billion in Iranian assets unfrozen in assets, and lifting oil sanctions and maritime blockades. Alagazi emphasized that these are not new conditions, but rather the content already promised by the U.S. in the June U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding. But the U.S. demands have now changed. Insiders revealed that the Trump administration has no intention of returning to the June memorandum but wants a comprehensive agreement covering strait navigation and Iran's nuclear issue. In other words, Iran wants to "restore old contracts," while the U.S. wants to "sign new contracts." Where does Trump's confidence in refusing come from? The Wall Street Journal quoted U.S. officials as saying bluntly: U.S.-led escort operations have opened a southern alternative route on the Oman side, "reducing the urgency of reaching an agreement." Meanwhile, the U.S. naval blockade continues to severely damage Iran's economy, with Iranian oil exports cut to just below pre-war levels. From the U.S. side's perspective, time is on their side. Even more ruthless, Trump's private$UNI has reached 10.
$HYPE is heading towards 100.
$ZEC is repeatedly tugging around 1500.
So everyone is asking the same question: Is it a bull or bear market now?
The answer is not in the overall market, but in your holdings.
If you bet on the right direction, every day is a bull market; a drop is just a pullback to pick up more.
If you bet on the wrong direction, every day is a bear market; a rise is just a bull trap to sell off.
The same market, the same candlestick chart, some see opportunity, others see traps.
The difference lies in what you hold in your hands.ZEC is starting again, it really never ends
Just saw this big bullish candle, funny and helpless. From 1576 to 1690, a single candle pulled back, the recent market has this temperament, same with BTC and ETH, whenever it dips slightly, someone supports it, afraid you'll get a bit more cheap chips.
Is ZEC without a top? The bulls have been comfortable lately, blindly going long can fill bags with money; the bears are miserable, forced to cover short every day, complaining nonstop.
I still can't understand: do institutions really have so much money that they only dare to buy at high levels? They don't accumulate at previous lows, but wait for clear signals in the mid to late stages? Are they chasing trends or just showing the market? I don't get it.
Maybe the market has never been about logic, but about chips and sentiment. No one believes at lows, all the logic is at highs. By the time you understand the institutions' intentions, the price is no longer there.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #特朗普拒绝伊朗7天方案，霍尔木兹重开受阻 $SUI continues to strengthen today to $1.20 (+4%), surging 38% in a week and +56% in 30 days, making it the strongest catch-up leader in the L1 sector with both fundamentals and market performance resonating, maintaining a solid main upward structure. The current price is about $1.20, still more than 4 times below the 2025 high of $5.35. Although the RSI has reached 75, entering overbought territory, strong coins being overbought does not mean a top is reached; the trend remains under bullish control.
Four market points:
① Technicals are fully bullish: price stands above all moving averages (50-day $0.78, 200-day $0.90), golden cross alignment, MACD bullish, ADX trend strong, KDJ and StochRSI continue upward; overbought is the only flaw.
② Ecosystem continues to deliver: Mysten Labs launched testnet v1.80.1, mainnet migrated GraphQL subscriptions, DeepBook Alpha launched, stablecoin payments and confidential finance features advancing, developer activity high.
③ Real capital inflow: yesterday’s volume surged 14.4%, nearly 4 times the average volume, single-day transaction volume reached $1.7 billion, on-chain usage is genuine, not fake pump; AlphaFi minor incident fully covered by the foundation, confidence remains intact.
④ Institutional narrative present: AI Agent + DeFi + compliant payments multi-line layout, capturing L1 rotation funds.
Operation reference:
Support: $1.15 → $1.02 → $0.93
Resistance: $1.22 → $1.28 → break targets $1.37, $1.64 On the twenty-eighth day, a single-day loss of 24,136.16 yuan, with cumulative losses falling to -24,136.16 yuan. BTC ETH
From the market perspective, BTC is hovering around 83,900, ETH holding around 2680, the candlesticks look like they are sleeping, but funding rates and underwater orders are cutting each other. The 10-year US Treasury yield surged above 5.2%, making money more expensive on a macro level, which is continuous pressure on zero-coupon assets; the Fed's dot plot and hawkish officials cause repeated short-term expectations, CME pricing moves again, and risk appetite dares not be too reckless.
The aftermath of exchange incidents is also ongoing: when words like security/freeze/transfer review appear, stablecoins and platform credit will be repriced, and short-term volatility is not only technical. 24h liquidations are still releasing, both longs and shorts are being washed out. I added to my long position near 83,500, but was taught a lesson by a spike, losing another 24,136 in a single day.
Now I don't guess the bottom, nor do I bet on reversals based on news. Resistance above is seen at 86,000-88,000, with support lines at 82,800/80,100; ETH support is at 2,630-2,700, resistance at 2,750-2,800. Leverage is reduced, stop-losses are fixed, waiting for a pullback confirmation and synchronization with ETF/US Treasury rhythm before proceeding. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Today $BTC peaked at $84,638,
$ETH touched $2,711,
This weekend's rebound looks quite encouraging,
but it also seems like "false hope."
Last week, Bitcoin ETFs attracted $2.4 billion in a single week,
marking the strongest inflow this year,
but this mostly filled the large net outflows before September.
Moreover, U.S. Treasury yields surged to 5.2% (a 20-year high),
which suppresses non-yielding Bitcoin,
so the price has been hovering around $84,000, unable to rise or fall significantly.
Next, watch two signals closely:
1) ETF fund flows.
If net inflows can stabilize or even expand over the next two weeks,
the rebound can continue;
if funds flow out again, this rebound will be another dead cat bounce.
2) Key resistance levels.
Strong resistance for Bitcoin is at $85,000 above,
for Ethereum, watch if it can hold above $2,700; if not, a pullback is likely Can ETH surge again tonight? First, let's understand the recent drama.
At midnight, it plunged to 2662.22, but buying pressure held firm, bouncing back to 2711.70. Now at 2706.69, the -15 minute Supertrend support at 2694.72 is being trampled underfoot, so the short-term bears are effectively suppressed. Today's deep shakeout was cleanly absorbed, with 24-hour volume at 2.493 billion, so the money hasn't gone idle.
The short-term key level is the intraday high at 2711: only if it holds can the bulls dare to push higher; repeated attempts failing to break it will lead to a range between 2690-2710, grinding sideways.
Don't get dazzled by the bounce; the mid-term outlook is actually not weak—up 9.54% over 30 days and 71.38% over 90 days, the trend is bullish, but right now it's a choppy rebound, not a one-sided bull run. Tonight, focus on BTC's performance; all major altcoins are tied to BTC, and if it weakens, ETH will quickly retest lower levels.
$BTC $ETH Nonfarm payrolls, PCE, Micron earnings—all three are packed into next week.
First, a detail.
On Wednesday at 8:30 PM, the core PCE and the final GDP figures will be released together.
Usually, these data come out separately, but this time they overlap, so the market will likely be unsettled during that half hour.
To be clear, the Fed watches this PCE to gauge inflation.
If it remains stubborn, expectations for rate cuts will have to be pushed back.
In crypto, this is the biggest fear—money isn’t cheap, and no one dares to rush in recklessly.
But what I care more about is Cook’s speech early Thursday morning.
Data is static, but people’s words are dynamic.
If she leans hawkish, that little rebound earlier will basically be explained away.
As an old retail investor, what I fear most is the data initially dropping to shake me out before rallying again.
So my stance is simple.
I won’t make moves in the first half of next week.
I’ll wait until that half hour on Wednesday night is over, see if $BTC holds or breaks, then decide whether to follow.
Guessing direction now is just adding drama for myself.
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 $BTC After pushing toward $122, it has slipped back to around $120, and now the key question is whether sellers can actually break and hold below $120. 👀 Lately, the narrative everywhere has been about Solana upgrades and how they could drive the next leg higher. But honestly, upgrades alone don't explain the entire move. SOL spent a long time consolidating around the $80 area. The real change came when broader crypto momentum returned and capital started rotating back into major altcoins. ETF-relat$UNI breaks 10
$HYPE surges to 100
$ZEC holds at 1500
So is this market a bull or bear market?
It depends on what you bought.
If you bought right, it's a bull market every day, and pullbacks are just opportunities to get in.
If you bought wrong, it's a bear market every day, and rallies are just windows to escape. This morning I said to focus on one thing: whether the explosive volume spike on ZEC could continue. Six hours later, the answer is out.
At 08:00, the volume shrank to 147,000 lots, and the price dropped from 1652 back to 1637, looking like it was going to rest.
At 12:00, the volume pulled back to 1661, with 157,000 lots—didn't shrink back, it continued.
The invalidation level I wrote this morning was 1550; in these six hours, the lowest was only 1631, 81 points away, not touched.
Now at 1662, up 8.3% in 24 hours. $BTC also hit a new high at 84654. Open interest is still decreasing, at 94,171 contracts.
Screenshots of $ZEC short positions in the square are still increasing. It's not that it shouldn't rise, but the shorts haven't admitted defeat yet.
What to watch: the previous high at 1698.
This is just a market breakdown, not a recommendation. Those who shorted ZEC this morning, how are you doing?