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Luckily I got out early, otherwise I would have gone back again.
Damn, you really can't be greedy going long now. Yesterday $CNPY even bounced back to around 0.47, it was fluctuating all day, I thought it was going to break a new high since it was still quite far from the previous peak. But after waking up, it dropped back down again. If I hadn't closed my position yesterday, it would have been a free profit.
The same goes for $USELESS and $AKE, they bounce up easily but then fall back down, and even more so. Useless is now around 0.28 again, and AKE was close to 0.05 at its highest yesterday. How much is left now?JPMorgan says Bitcoin has reached a production cost of 85,000, and miners finally don't have to sell at a loss.
I've been staring at this number for a long time.
280 days. The last time was in 2018, 224 days, then high-cost miners collectively shut down, hash rate dropped, difficulty dropped.
What about this time? The scale of miners has grown, industrialized, but the accounting is still the same — electricity costs won't be discounted just because your factory is bigger.
The problem is, 85,000 is JPMorgan's "estimated" cost. It's not reported by the miners themselves. Electricity fees, machine depreciation, financing costs — each calculates differently. Some survive well at 60,000, some are still struggling at 100,000.
So don't rush to believe the phrase "alleviate selling pressure" just yet.
Crossing the cost line only means changing from "must sell" to "can choose not to sell." But whether to sell still depends on what they think about the future.
The real question is: what if this price can't hold?
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 #美债收益率全面走高，高利率为何难降？ $BTC #美债收益率全面走高，高利率为何难降？
US stock market analysis: Bond market storm sweeps in, AI credit cracks begin to show, funds flee to two safe havens
Brothers, tonight's market can be summed up in one word: pressure. The 30-year US Treasury yield surged to the highest since 2004, the 10-year broke 5.2%, the first time since 2007. The money market is directly pricing in a 70% chance of a rate hike in October and 80% in December. Oil prices are on a roller coaster, Brent steadied at 107, and the Hormuz agreement rumors were denied by Iran within an hour. The dollar strengthened, gold retreated, Bitcoin sideways at 84,000.
But the index closed flat, the internal structure tells you where the money went. On the NYSE, there have been more new lows than new highs for 8 consecutive days, 13 out of 14 days like this. The money hasn't fled, it's contracted—hiding in healthcare, with Eli Lilly up 2.68% after approval of new insulin; hiding in AI application ends with real profits, Meta up 4.5% hitting a near one-year high.
The real thunder is on the AI credit side. Oracle's New Mexico data center declared force majeure, CDS spreads soared to historic highs, stock price dropped 3.5%. Next year AI capital expenditure is 1.3 trillion, half relying on debt, with financing costs this high, even giants can't bear it. Storage chain Western Digital fell nearly 5%, ARM down 8%, this is the signal.
In summary: yields won't turn down, so don't talk about attacking risk assets. Now is not the time to bottom fish, it's time to see who has strong cash flow and who doesn't rely on borrowing to get by. Keep an eye on oil prices and US Treasuries; once these two stabilize, the next round can come.$PUMP SHORT Setup | 1H
Price is retracing within the established bearish trend.
Entry zone: 0.003853–0.003866
Stop loss: 0.003906
Targets: TP1 0.003806 (1.13R) / TP2 0.003748 (2.36R) / TP3 0.003691 (3.57R)
Partial take profit: 20% / 30% / 50%
Notes: Direction conflicts with BTC 4H filter; expected EV is -0.68R, below the current threshold.
Status: Watchlist only — waiting for confirmation before considering this setup. $BTC $XAU $BZ Whether Europe and Japan are willing to acknowledge it or not, there are no permanent friends, only permanent interests. Judging by the momentum of development in the AI sector and the scale of the reception held by the American leader for the Chinese leader today, bilateral relations are largely unfolding along the lines of the G2 concept advanced by Fred Bergsten. Those who are capable should, as far as possible, live in or allocate their assets across these two major powers.$ONDO ONDO's current price is about $0.52, up over 25% in 24 hours, reaching a new six-month high, catalyzed by the on-chain investment portfolio launched in cooperation with BlackRock.
Short-term conditions support a relatively independent market: BTC holding steady at $84,000 without suppression, and the RWA compliance narrative continues to attract capital.
However, it cannot truly decouple from BTC: ONDO's correlation with BTC is about 0.70–0.85, making it a high-beta asset; when BTC falls, ONDO usually falls at 1.5–2.5 times the rate. The so-called "independence" essentially means structural excess returns under the premise that BTC does not fall, rather than the disappearance of gravitational pull.
Core variables in the medium to long term:
· Massive unlock in January 2027: about 1.71 billion tokens (worth approximately $600 million), which may create mechanical downward pressure
· Fee-switch governance vote: expected in the second half of 2026; if passed, it will change the value capture logic of ONDO as a pure governance token
Conclusion: ONDO can develop an independent trend when BTC is flat or moderately rising; if BTC undergoes a deep correction, ONDO will still follow with high beta.$STRK No vision, can't hold on, the profit this time is as thin as paper, but I love it to death.
During the intraday plunge, the screen was full of green, with wails all around. While others were running, I was staring at STRK. The rebound was weak, volume didn't keep up, and selling pressure was heavy. I suggested a bearish view; short positions could be tried.
Entered at 0.04700, the middle was so frustrating it made people want to curse, but I still held on. Just checked, 0.03917, +834.04%, the earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is really sweet 👏
Take profit on 80% first, don't be greedy for the last bit.
Panic comes from lack of planning, losses come from overthinking.
Keep the remaining 20% at cost price as protection; if it rebounds, don't give back the profits.
Being out of position is not a sin; opening positions recklessly is the mistake.
For friends who haven't gotten on board yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush, wait for a more comfortable position in the next round. The market is not short of opportunities, it lacks patience. Move when the next signal comes.
$BNB $XRP #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布
Costco is very likely to deliver a quarterly report with "stable revenue but some profit flaws." The stock price has dropped 18% from its May peak; a 43x PE ratio is inherently fragile in a 5% interest rate environment. The real variables are gross margin and membership fee growth.
What is the basis? The earnings report after the market close on September 24 is expected to show revenue of about $94.8 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase; adjusted EPS around $6.55, up 12% year-over-year. Comparable sales are expected to grow 6.5%, with the U.S. at 6.9%, continuing to accelerate from last quarter's 6.8%. But BofA forecasts EPS at only $6.52, reasoning that rising transportation and merchandise costs will compress gross margin by about 10 basis points. Oppenheimer is more cautious, considering $6.55 the "best case," with core profits possibly falling short of expectations after tariff refunds are deducted.
The options market has already priced in large volatility. Implied volatility is 35%, far above the historical average of 17%. The stock price has fallen from $1093 to $895, breaking the $905 support; RSI is below 50, with the next support at $875. $HYPE is a "strong consolidation at a high level during the main upward wave," not a peak — the mid-to-long-term trend remains intact, and pullbacks are opportunities to buy the dip.
Current market situation:
- Current price around $92, only 6% below the ATH of $97.98 on 9/23, +15% in 30 days, +43% in 90 days, still one of the strongest assets in the entire market
- RSI about 61, falling back from the overbought zone but still above 50, no top divergence, a healthy pause after a strong rise
- Price still above the 20-day EMA ($85-87), all mid-to-long-term moving averages are bullishly aligned, the upward structure (higher highs and higher lows) remains unbroken
Key levels:
- Support: $90 (psychological level) → $86-87 (20-day EMA, strong support) → $84; these levels are zones for phased entries
- Resistance: $98 (ATH) → $100 round number; if the daily candle closes below $98, it opens the price discovery space toward $100+
Short-term disturbances to watch: unlocking on 9/29, about $90 million unstaking arriving on 10/1, core contributor unlocking on 10/6, which may cause a sharp dip to create a trap — but historically it has been able to absorb unlocking pressure through buybacks. Real cash revenue of $429 million plus continuous burns is the floor preventing deep drops.
Strategy: Do not chase above $98, test small positions near $90, heavy buying at $86-87, exit if it breaks below $84. Many holders of $CORE hope that by enduring three to five years, they will eventually see a major market rally.
But this directly applies Bitcoin's growth cycle, and the underlying logic of the two cannot be equated.
Assets with a genuine long-term narrative will show K-lines continuously lifting the bottom. Even when facing a major drop, there is always active capital at low levels to support, forming a spiral upward structure.
Tokens that exhaust their hype all at once often have their opening price as the peak of capital selling. Each short-term rally is mostly a bull trap rebound, making it difficult to recover previous losses, with new lows following new lows.
Looking back at CORE, the launch hype was maximized, early mining chips continuously unlocked and released, with selling pressure lingering above for a long time. Without a sustained new narrative to absorb the massive chips, relying solely on believers holding on stubbornly will only repeatedly play out "rebound → dump → new low."
Hoping to trade time for a rally essentially bets on the long-term story digesting massive selling pressure. The market will not provide a safety net for prolonged waiting, and selling pressure will not vanish out of thin air. The core of a market reversal is new capital and new narratives, not stubbornly holding positions. In a zero-sum game environment, prolonged endurance most likely ends in continuous decline.
⚠️This is only a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile and carries significant risk. Major coins all closed in the green today, with $BTC reported at $84,598, up 0.28%, and $ETH and $SOL also slightly up. However, the total market cap fell by 2.03%, dropping to 2.9 trillion. This is not a capital exit, but a bleeding in the long tail: AKE down 17.13%, CARDS down 10.41%, BTW down 8.66%.
BTW is the most worrisome — price is falling, but the funding rate remains at +0.15%, with bulls holding on and paying fees despite the drop. This kind of structure usually requires another drop to clear out.
The only sector absorbing this is the tokenization sector: $ONDO up 26.3%, turnover rate 42.45%, with daily trading exceeding 1 billion USD; QNT up 26.71%. The main themes on X these days are stablecoins and tokenization regulation, with capital voting through trading volume.
In the next 72 hours, BTC’s dominance remains above 58.58%, with money continuing to concentrate on BTC and tokenization, while other altcoins continue to bleed; only if dominance falls below this line and total market cap recovers today’s 2.03% drop will altcoin rotation be considered restarted. $BTC $ETH | Today is the quarterly options expiration, discussing market and news separately.
📌 News (Key Events)
The biggest event in the crypto market today: Deribit platform has about $15.9 billion in $BTC options and $2.1 billion in $ETH options expiring simultaneously, with $BTC options accounting for 37% of its total open interest. The put/call ratio is only 0.70, indicating a clear bullish sentiment. About $9.4 billion in Calls, 55% are in-the-money, with the most concentrated strike prices at 85,000, 90,000, and 100,000 USD. However, the biggest pain point currently lies in the 76,000-75,000 USD range, about 9,000 USD away from the current price.
In simple terms, market makers have an incentive to push the price toward the pain point before expiration, but the current Call positions are too heavy. Once it breaks through 85,000 USD, Gamma squeeze could trigger a sharp rally. Caroline Moron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, also mentioned that hedging activity before expiration may suppress prices, but once the rollover is complete, the suppressed upward momentum could explode again.
Additionally, Bitget's hot wallet suffered an unauthorized withdrawal of about $350 million; the platform stated that the protection fund can cover the loss. This incident may increase market risk aversion in the short term.
⚠️ Market (Technical + Funding)
$BTC is currently around 84,400 USD, down slightly 0.06% in 24H. $ETH pulled back slightly to around 2,688 after breaking 2,700. The first resistance above is at 84,670-84,930 USD, and the core support below is at 83,400-83,600 USD (EMA30 area).
From the funding perspective, $BTC futures annualized funding rate is about 8%, not extreme, with leverage sentiment leaning neutral. But U.S. Treasury yields continue to pressure—10-year yield once hit 5.145%, 30-year soared to 5.444%, the highest since 2004. Oil prices remain above 100 USD, and global macro pressure is transmitting to the crypto market. The good news is spot ETFs are still attracting funds, with BTC ETF net inflow about $347 million in a single day, marking five consecutive trading days of net inflows.
💡 Trading Tips
Avoid chasing highs or selling lows today. Options expiration day often amplifies short-term volatility, with a high probability of spikes up and down. Focus on 85,000 USD—this level is both a dense Call zone and a key battleground between bulls and bears. A breakout and hold could trigger a squeeze rally; repeated rejection calls for caution on a pullback to 83,400 support. After expiration settlement (usually after UTC 08:00), the direction will become clearer.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 #AI模型集体降价，竞争转向成本
US Stock Market Close Summary: Meta nears $2 trillion, AI infrastructure triggers sudden "delay" alert
Top 20 by trading volume: Meta surged 4.5% leading with 26.4 billion; AMD hit new highs, up 2.38%, Intel rose nearly 4%; Oracle and Bloom Energy fell over 3%, SanDisk dropped 3.47%.
Price changes: Most large tech stocks weakened, Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft, Apple closed slightly down, Google rose against the trend by 1.34%.
News: Meta receives strong support from JPMorgan, AI assistant monetization model upgrade opens new growth curve. Oracle issued a "force majeure" notice for the Stargate core data center Project Jupiter, market worries about a $300 billion computing power project delay. Micron's earnings release is imminent, with HBM demand as a focus.
AI narrative shows cracks, infrastructure delay signals warrant caution, storage and computing power divergence intensifies, short-term volatility may increase#21Shares launches Europe's first ZcashETP
This week, 21Shares listed Europe's first Zcash ETP on Euronext Paris and Amsterdam, ticker ZCASH, physically backed. ZEC now has its first compliant asset management entry point in Europe.
Background: Grayscale's ZEC ETF has long been available in the US. Now Europe is catching up, meaning ZEC is officially transitioning from a "privacy coin traded by retail investors" to an "asset accessible to institutions." Large European pension funds and wealth management capital, which previously could only watch, now have a compliant channel.
ZEC has indeed surged this round. At the end of June, it was just over $400; on September 22, it broke through $1600, hitting a new high since 2016—coincidentally, the same day 21Shares was listed. It nearly quadrupled in three months.
But I have to pour cold water: half of this rise is due to the compliance narrative, the other half is a short squeeze. There were too many shorts before; as the price rose, shorts had to cover, pushing the price higher. After nearly three months of continuous gains, the short-term increase is already huge.
The ETP launch is a long-term positive, but in the short term, be cautious of a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario. The market had already rallied ahead of the announcement; when the listing actually happens, it might be a time for profit-taking. ZEC's recent drop from 1600 to around 1500 reflects this.
If you hold ZEC, don't treat the ETP as rocket fuel. In the long run, privacy coins entering the mainstream is a trend; in the short term, such a sharp rise means a pullback is the normal script.
⚠️ Personal opinion, for discussion only. $ZEC 昨天我们讲了方向反转：位置整体交换，账户状态保留，三层结构的作用对象自动转移到新的承压一边。文章结尾留了一个连接点——反转之后新承压一边的路径如何展开、速度如何被控制，今天就把它展开：放大执行空间的机制（顺势而为）和控制风险增长速度的机制（防瀑布），怎样在同一套结构里分工协作。 先给结论：放大执行空间的同时，要限制风险增长速度。一个管幅度，一个管速度，两者方向不同、动作不同，但守的是同一段行情的两头。 本文讨论的是两个机制的分工与配合关系，不代表建议普通用户自行设置或修改平台参数。顺势条件与防瀑布条件都属于平台预设规则的一部分，普通用户按默认参数运行即可，通常只需根据自身账户条件调整首单和杠杆。 一、先分清：两个机制各自管什么 顺势而为，管的是顺势一边的参与幅度。行情连续单边运行时，系统按规则加大顺势一边单子的倍数，最多放大到 5 倍；触发条件和上限都写在预设规则里，由系统执行。它当前在聚合止盈的配置下默认关闭——这一点前面讲过，开关由结构配合决定。 防瀑布，管的是追加的速度。行情在短时间内向不利方向急速运行时，它暂停补仓等追加动作，让仓位的展开先慢下来；触发后继续观察，恢复也有条件。The Federal Reserve has issued detailed rules on the GENIUS Act: the stablecoins it regulates must be 100% backed by high-grade reserves, such as short-term Treasury bills.
A strict rule — stablecoin reserves can only be compliant assets, with T-bills as the main component.
This effectively gives stablecoins a "true identity":
They will no longer be wild on-chain dollars, but compliant shadow currencies tied to U.S. debt.
In the short term, this is a regulatory cost; in the long term, it integrates stablecoins into the core of the dollar system, also providing a liquidity foundation for the BTC ecosystem.9.25 Morning Express📝
$BTC current price 84400
Early week surged to 87400, PMI plunged below 85000 on Wednesday, lowest at 82800 on Thursday, slight rebound in Asia, ETH 2680.
The previous upward structure at 87,000 was completely lost, and this round of short covering rally is basically over.
Macro Market
5-year US Treasury yield breaks 5% for the first time in 18 years, TSMC foundry price hike of 3%-6%, diesel ban rumors debunked.
US PMI data exceeded expectations, inflation pressure rising, rate hike expectations heating up, USD steady at 101, US Treasury yields continue to rise.
US stocks fell for three consecutive days, no substantive results from US-Iran ceasefire talks, tense situation in the Strait.
Oil prices rise again, Brent at 106, WTI at 95, geopolitical risks continue to support oil prices.
Core Logic in Crypto
High interest rates + high oil prices, dual pressure on risk assets
Clear legislation not yet implemented, no regulatory benefits
Previous rise was just a short squeeze rebound, not a new trend
Short-term Key Points
84500 is the core resistance level
If broken, expect 83000→81000
Oil and US Treasury yields remain high, subsequent market is weak
Strictly avoid heavy positions on Friday
For review reference only, not investment advice 📌 【ZEC Volume-Reduced Rebound, Whale Sell-Off Alert Triggered】
Current Price: $1,556｜24H Change: +2.65%｜24H Trading Volume: $76.62M
After the daily chart fell from the $1,680 high and stabilized at $1,456, it formed a V-shaped recovery, but volume has clearly shrunk. On-chain alerts are frequent: a whale holding for over two years transferred 22,800 ZEC (about $23.11M) to Binance, taking profits at roughly 20x; another suspected Bitkub co-founder related wallet cluster lifted privacy protection, transferred to Hyperliquid and sold, then rotated into 238 BTC. Today's forced liquidation of Kraken users in the UAE also deserves attention, with liquidity shocks gradually fading.
In the mid-to-long term, privacy sector inflows total about $30B. After the SEC ended its investigation, the first ZEC spot ETP has been approved for listing, maintaining fundamental support.
Key levels: Resistance above at $1,680, support below at $1,456.
$ZEC #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ Even though there were several sharp sell-offs during this pullback week, the price was able to rebound after each sell-off?
Reasons:
1. Tether has confirmed that USDT will launch on Bitcoin through the RGB protocol and Lightning Network. It is reported that Morgan Stanley is discussing the adoption of USDT on Bitcoin across Europe and globally.
2. Researchers have proposed the Shielded Bitcoin framework, which enables private transfers directly on Bitcoin L1 without a soft fork, using zero-knowledge proofs to hide the sender, receiver, and amount.
3. The spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $347 million on September 23, achieving five consecutive days of capital inflow, while strategies increased holdings by 950 BTC, bringing total reserves to about 846,000 BTC.
3. AI-assisted coding has reduced the estimated GPU cost for preparing quantum-resistant Bitcoin transactions from about $320 to $66 within a week, operating under existing Bitcoin rules without requiring a network upgrade.
4. For the first time in a bear market, Bitcoin never closed below its realized price, making June's low the shallowest in the past three cycles, while wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC have accumulated 113,950 BTC since mid-July.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ #美股探索代币化与全天候交易 15,100 people viewed, only 6 likes
15,100 views, 6 likes. This data is more exciting than the market.
Is a sharp drop good news?:
There are many sharp drops in a bull market, that's true. But when a sharp drop really comes, your hands will shake.
Who is impulsive?:
Analytical ability is not the barrier; fear of missing out is. When panic hits, rationality is suppressed by emotion.
Who is getting cut in this wave?:
Those chasing highs are most likely handing chips to the calm ones. Adding and subtracting, those hit on both sharp rises and falls are the same batch of quick hands.
So I’m not chasing now. I’ll wait for it to drop thoroughly, wait until I understand it before moving.
Did you rush in this wave, or are you like me watching from the sidelines?
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 #CME拟推BCH与UNI期货 $ETH The $ZEC institutional gateway has opened, and continuous buying requires AUM proof.
On the morning of September 25, OKX spot $ZEC was quoted at $1,554.69, up 3.24% in 24 hours, and approximately 97% up in the past 30 days.
Perpetual positions are about $168 million, and the funding rate remains positive.
In the past week, it only rose about 4.9%, with the price entering high volatility turnover after falling back from the September 23 high of $1,680.
On September 22, 21Shares listed a physically-backed Zcash ETP on Euronext Paris and Amsterdam, with a 2.5% annual fee, and the underlying ZEC is held by a custodian.
This adds a compliant gateway for European brokerage accounts, but product listing only means it can be bought.
Subsequent changes in AUM and shares will show whether there is real incremental demand.
Ledger has also natively integrated shielded balances into its desktop wallet, lowering the usage threshold for private assets.
On-chain data:
Last week, shielded transactions increased to 62,379, with the shielded pool holding about 4.91 million ZEC.
The visible circulating supply of these coins has decreased.
If the ETP scale does not grow but the price surges again amid rising positions, the main drivers may be high-leverage long holders, and a pullback would trigger concentrated liquidations.
If AUM, shielded transactions, and spot trading increase simultaneously, the institutional gateway truly converts into buying pressure. Macroeconomic headwinds: Is the altcoin season a real signal or just a pump-and-dump?
Interest rates have risen, wiping out a large amount of leverage, but the funds haven't completely exited; it's just that decent opportunities have become scarce.
PMI data exceeded expectations, the 10-year US Treasury yield broke through 5.12%, the dollar strengthened, and the market is pricing in a 70% chance of a rate hike in October. Taking on risk assets now comes at an increasingly high cost. BTC was pushed down twice after hitting 87,300; in 24 hours, long positions liquidated $444 million. Simply put, leverage was forcibly closed, not that funds voluntarily left.
The short-term watershed for $BTC is at 83,500, where chips concentrate and turnover occurs. If it holds, there's a chance to retest 87,300 and challenge 90,000; if it breaks down effectively, first look at 80,000, with strong support around 76,000 below.
Many indicators suggest altcoin season is coming, but market enthusiasm hasn't really spread. The $ZEC story is hyped, with the rise mixed with short squeezes; NEAR doubled in the short term, but the underlying buying power is actually weak.
Indicators are signaling, but don't get carried away rushing into altcoins. Currently, it's just range-bound back and forth; watch $BTC's turnover at 83,500, wait for the trend to clarify before choosing an opportunity, and don't bet on direction prematurely. $ETH
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ This guy's trading logic boils down to one sentence: he shorts when it rises, and runs when it falls.
Just saw this whale's update, long position cost at 78,000, now watching the 79,000 line.
If it breaks below, he'll gradually close longs; if it quickly surges near 100,000, he's actually preparing to place defensive short orders between 98,000 and 105,000.
Interestingly, he was bullish all the way from 58,000 to 100,000, but failed to time the top midway and didn't fully take profits.
So this time, I'm just here to watch the show.
He's not calling trades, he's drawing a roadmap for himself.
The only number really worth watching is 79,000. If it breaks, it means even he doesn't want to hold anymore.
As for that short zone above, it seems more like a conflicted move, afraid of missing out but also afraid of a pullback.
My prediction is simple: this kind of play blocking both ends will most likely get hit from both sides in the end.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 #CME拟推BCH与UNI期货 $ETH Currently, DEX aggregators can handle about one-third of the entire DEX market volume.
But prediction market aggregators may not be able to directly apply this formula — these two sectors have different structures.
The "small stakes, big wins" attribute is stronger in prediction markets; the density of event arbitrage and combination betting opportunities is much higher than in spot markets, and it is naturally more suitable for AI agents to operate:
Clear rules, verifiable outcomes, and machines are faster than humans at exploiting arbitrage opportunities.
My judgment is that prediction market aggregators are not competing on "how many trades they handle," but on who can turn event combinations and hedging into products. AI will enter this space earlier than in DEX.现在更像洗筹后的博弈期，不是追涨期。 山寨到底是在等BTC发令，还是已经偷偷掉队了？ 这两天看盘有个很明显的感觉：BTC还在台上领舞，ETF持续吸筹，价格贴在85K到86K附近晃，90K是那个大家嘴上不说、心里都盯着的门槛。ETH越过2.66K之后没掉链子，只要2.56K到2.65K这个带子不破，结构就还算体面。SOL在117附近磨，120是它能不能重新拿到高beta入场券的确认线。 但真正让我在意的不是价格，是衍生品那边的表情。 - 持仓量没有跟着价格一起兴奋，说明杠杆还没全面压上来，这既是好事也是隐患。 - 资金费率偏中性，没有极端贪婪，意味着挤压的燃料还在，但引信没点着。 - BTC稳、ETH撑、SOL如果放量跟上，山寨才有机会从轮动变成扩散。 - 反过来，如果SOL冲120失败、ETH丢了2.65K，那所谓山寨季只是BTC一个人的独角戏。 我现在的判断是：市场在交易"确认"，不是交易"想象"。90K对BTC是情绪开关，2.65K对ETH是结构底线，120对SOL是风险偏好回归的证明。三个条件同时成立，山寨才有资格谈扩张；缺一个，就还是存量博弈，追高的人容易变成别人的退出流动性。$ETH 100U Quantitative Bot Operation Record Day 36 (08:15)
Yesterday I said 2706 is a barrier, 2630 is the lifeline — and both were tested: it was pushed back after touching 2706 above, and after hitting 2626 below it immediately pulled back without holding. Currently around 2680. This is the third time; I tend to think it will still hold.
Key levels:
· Resistance: 2706, 2744, 2783
· Support: 2658, 2620, 2600
Intraday trading suggestions:
1. Short on rebound
· Entry: near 2706 when price stalls
· Stop loss: 2718
· Target: 2658 → 2620
2. Long on pullback
· Entry: near 2658 when price stops falling
· Stop loss: 2648
· Target: around 2700
3. Volume-based long (aggressive)
· Entry: near 2710 if pullback does not break
· Stop loss: 2696
· Target: around 2744
The Bot was swept from both sides again yesterday: it bought in batches at relatively low levels during the decline, the position was right but this batch was not held, some were sold before the rebound; the short position placed on the high-level wall overnight was profitable. This morning, another short was placed on this rise and is still held. Adjusted the average position price.
The third time reaching the 2706 wall, will it break through or be pushed back again?
⚠️ The above content is personal opinion only and does not constitute investment advice.
Be flexible with key levels, watch your position size, take profits and stop losses timely, and pay attention to data timeliness. $BTC is oscillating narrowly around 84,500, with ETFs seeing a net inflow totaling about $715 million over four consecutive days. Bitwise surveyed 15 large institutions; during a roughly 50% drawdown from Q4 2025 to Q2 2026, none reduced holdings, and some even increased them. Institutions do not consider price a reason to sell.
$ETH is holding above 2690, with ETFs experiencing net inflows of about $162 million over three consecutive days. However, institutions are more cautious with ETH allocations, maintaining smaller positions, shorter cycles, and setting exit conditions. If growth in stablecoins and others falls short of expectations, some institutions may exit in the coming years.
$SOL rose over 2% against the trend. The foundation appointed former top platform executives as Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Payments to promote institutional adoption. This year, stablecoin trading volume exceeded $5 trillion, and RWA surpassed $4.5 billion. Treasury companies are also raising funds to increase holdings.
BTC and ETH are stabilized by ETFs, while SOL relies on its independent ecosystem. The market is under pressure, but institutions have not withdrawn; they are merely reallocating.Why did Bitcoin lose the 85k level? Has the plan changed?
Yesterday I said 85k was the most important support level.
After breaking 85k, the price fell below 84k within an hour.
At that time, $237 million long positions were liquidated.
The drop was sharp, but the proportion of large holders' long positions remained the same as yesterday.
Why?
The answer is in the data, and the reason the plan hasn't changed is also in the data.
The pressure to break 85k came from the United States.
A Federal Reserve official said inflation risks are rising, and a new round of rate hikes is very likely needed.
On the same day, the US 10-year Treasury yield exceeded 5%, the highest since 2007.
Leverage amplified the decline.
In the past 24 hours, the three major futures exchanges liquidated 11,000 Bitcoin positions, worth over $900 million.
The market overall saw $360 million in long position liquidations over 12 hours.
Among large holders' positions, longs account for 66%.
In other words, leveraged longs were washed out, and the big players held steady.
Today, the 85k level changed hands on the chart.
Yesterday it was a buy wall below the price; today it is a sell wall above.
Every 1% rise there brings a net sell of $101 million, about 1,200 Bitcoin.
There is also 84k on the way, with a net sell of $48 million for every 1% rise.
The strongest buy orders below are at 82k, with a net buy of $45 million for every 1% drop.
The price is caught between attacks from both sides between 82k and 85k. Brothers, BTC and ETH have dropped from their eight-month highs, but the bulls haven't been buried this time.
$BTC $84,600 | $ETH $2,693
Bitcoin retraced from the $87,385 high to around $84,600, and Ethereum simultaneously fell to $2,693. In the past 24 hours, about $234 million worth of liquidations occurred across the network, with longs accounting for $108 million and shorts $126 million — longs and shorts are almost balanced, with no one-sided slaughter.
Interest rate storm overhead, but ETF funds are still flowing in
The real bearish factor comes from the bond market. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose above 5.148%, and the 30-year surged to 5.444%, the highest since 2004. The dollar strengthened, risk assets collectively came under pressure, and BTC fell about 4% from its high.
But there is support on the funding side. The Bitcoin spot ETF saw nearly $1 billion inflow in a single day on Monday, marking the largest single-day inflow in 2026, with holders’ average cost around $81,722, currently still about 5% above the cost line. Ethereum spot ETFs have had net inflows for four consecutive days, with BlackRock’s ETHA contributing $50.8 million in a single day.
Technically, $84,000 is a key level to watch. Coinglass data shows that if BTC falls below $80,259, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on major exchanges will reach $1.345 billion; if it breaks above $88,267, short liquidation intensity will reach $1.401 billion.
Let's discuss in the comments: with the interest rate storm and ETF buying, which will break first?👇
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ Day 26, single-day profit of ¥18,005.37. The account's cumulative profit and loss turned positive to +¥18,005.37, with three consecutive days of profit, finally climbing out of the deep pit after four consecutive days of sharp declines. $BTC $ETH
The crypto market on September 23 was a meat grinder for both bulls and bears.
Bitcoin oscillated at a high level between $86,000 and $87,000, once breaking above $87,000 intraday, then quickly falling back to $84,015. Ethereum sharply dropped from above $2,800 to $2,651, a 24-hour decline of 3.22%. The entire network saw liquidations of $389 million in the past 12 hours, with long positions liquidated at $352 million, while shorts were almost unscathed. Altcoins like UNI and ARB plunged over 11% in a single day, and the market was full of wails.
Why such a fierce drop? The US Treasury yields became the knife hanging overhead.
The US 10-year Treasury yield broke through 5.11%, marking the highest closing level since 2007, and the 30-year yield once rose to 5.444%, the highest since 2004. S&P Global data showed the US September composite PMI surged to 58.4, a 62-month high, with the input price index jumping from 59.9 to 66.4, signaling renewed inflationary pressure. Fed Governor Barr clearly stated that due to "risks to achieving the inflation target having increased," further rate hikes might be necessary. The market's probability expectation for a rate hike in October quickly rose from 55% to nearly 70%. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil climbed back above $103 due to the stalemate in US-Iran negotiations, casting the shadow of energy inflation over the market again.
And I had already prepared before all this happened.
The loss of ¥8,175 on September 22 woke me up completely. That night, I closed all long positions and reduced leverage to the minimum. After the market opened on September 23, I did not rush in but observed quietly—when Bitcoin repeatedly tugged above $86,000, I did not chase longs; when Bitcoin broke below $85,000, I did not panic. I lightly tested longs near $83,500 and decisively closed positions at resistance around $84,500, capturing my small segment within the oscillation range. The ¥18,005 is the first profit in these 26 days where I stayed calm amid intense volatility and strictly followed the plan.
It's been twenty-six days. From -¥8,487 to +¥43,281, from four consecutive days of huge losses to today's +¥18,005, spot returns remain a cold ¥0.00—I have never truly held a single Bitcoin or Ethereum; these 26 days have been a battle in the contract meat grinder. This ¥18,005 taught me not how to predict direction, but how to control my hands in the face of $86,000 oscillations, 5.11% US Treasury yields, and 70% rate hike probability. In a macro storm, less action is better than wrong action; staying alive is more important than anything."Altcoin Contracts, Don't Use Your Principal as a Touchstone"
On a whim early in the morning, I opened a short position on PEPE, just to test the waters. Ten minutes later, everything was calm; half an hour later, my account had already lost a tenth. It’s not that I didn’t consider the risks, but I didn’t expect altcoins to behave like this: no trend, no support, only sudden pumps and dumps.
Using 10x leverage on mainstream coins is already aggressive; using it on altcoin contracts is like bringing a lighter into a gas station. You think you’re trading candlesticks, but you’re actually gambling against liquidity, sentiment, and the market makers’ rhythm. PEPE looks like it’s going to dip further, and the earlier gains haven’t fully retraced, but a single sharp move can force shorts out early. The direction might be right, but your position size and leverage will knock you out first.
Looking at BTC’s rise and fall, market rotation has begun, with funds flying around like migratory birds. Mainstream coins still have logic behind them, but altcoins are more about emotional pulses. When greed kicks in, risk is automatically downplayed, and losses make you realize that "you can’t guard against everything."
This loss wasn’t undeserved; it’s tuition paid for greed. It’s best to avoid altcoin contracts; if you must trade them, keep positions small, leverage low, and use stop losses—don’t turn a test into an accident. The market always has opportunities, but once your principal is gone, that’s the real exit.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ The whale's long position cost is actually lower than the current price
An account called "Set 10 Big Goals First" updated the $BTC operation plan.
His average long position price is around $78,000.
Where did this money come from:
This round, he has been bullish from $58,000 all the way to $100,000.
He misjudged the top midway and didn't take full profits.
How this number is calculated:
78,000 is the average entry price, not the transaction price of a single order.
He started to gradually close longs once it dropped below 79,000.
In other words, he only left himself a $1,000 buffer.
When it surged to the 98,000 to 105,000 range, he reversed to place defensive short orders.
If the daily candle holds above 108,000, this short logic becomes invalid.
Seeing others write every step clearly, I haven't even figured out my stop loss yet.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 #CME拟推BCH与UNI期货 $BTC 9.25 BTC and ETH strategy reference: Mid-Autumn Festival is Mid-Autumn Festival, but K-lines don’t take holidays.
Yesterday’s lower shadow was quite intimidating, dropping to 82,800 before pulling back, but once the US session started, the bulls completely gave up, and the rebound was just a fakeout. The short-term cycle is still weak and oscillating, and the key is that there’s still a large group of bulls waiting to be liquidated above. The most likely scenario ahead is: drop → liquidation → further drop, and this cycle is hard to break before the election.
Today is Friday, and volatility will only increase. The strategy remains unchanged: rebounds are opportunities, don’t chase longs, only look for short positions at the right levels.
BTC short at 85,200-85,600, target first at 83,800, if broken continue downward. The long-term ultimate target I’m still watching is 73,800.
ETH short at 2,710-2,730, target first at 2,650, if broken continue downward, ultimate target at 2,300. $BTC $ETH Is the US stock market going on-chain?
Wall Street is finally starting to change its trading rules!
The US SEC recently granted temporary, conditional exemptions to qualified tokenized stock trading platforms, allowing them to trade tokenized stocks through on-chain liquidity pools under a specific regulatory framework.
This is different from crypto platforms issuing their own "US stock mapping tokens." Regulators are exploring rules for on-chain trading that truly represent stock ownership, and Nasdaq is also advancing its own stock tokenization plan.
In the past, US stocks were limited by trading hours, clearing, and cross-border access. Now, traditional markets are seriously studying longer trading hours and on-chain settlement.
#美股探索代币化与全天候交易 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Crypto Market Brief: High-Level Pullback and Consolidation, Direction Awaiting Options Expiry
Market Overview: BTC has pulled back from the 87,000 high, oscillating around 84,000 for digestion. Total market cap is about 2.85 trillion USD, with no clear single trend.
• BTC: As of September 25, 08:03, priced at $83,630, down 1.14% in 24 hours, with $444 million long liquidations; 84,000-85,000 is the core zone for bulls and bears, support at 83,500/82,000 below, strong resistance at 87,300 above.
• ETH: Priced at $2,555, up 4.41% in 24 hours, relatively resilient, showing a recovery trend.
• Altcoins: Highly divergent; BNB leads with a breakout above $800; DOGE down nearly 8%, XRP, ZEC, HYPE down over 5%. Glassnode signals shift favoring altcoins but diffusion remains unstable.
Key Influencing Factors:
✅ BTC ETF net inflow of 2,186 units (about $243 million), funds have not exited.
⚠️ PMI rose to 58.4, 10-year US Treasury yield broke 5%, tightening pressure.
⚠️ Approximately $16 billion worth of BTC quarterly options expire today, volatility may increase.
Short-term View: Monitor ETF fund flows and post-options expiry direction; if inflows weaken causing 82,000 to break, deeper correction likely; holding 84,000 with risk appetite warming, rotation and diffusion may present opportunities.
Currently, this is a high-level leverage liquidation market, not a trend reversal market.
⚠️ This article does not constitute any investment advice. The exam paper is full of open cards, the suspense lies outside the paper
#财报观察员：Costco's Q4 earnings report is about to be released
Costco's test paper, the answers have been released in advance.
As of 08:03 on September 25, Q4 net sales reached $93.9 billion, up 11.3% year-on-year, with comparable sales up 9.4%, already disclosed at the beginning of the month. The real suspense lies deep in the income statement: membership fees contribute about half of the operating profit for fiscal year 2025, and the bonus from the US and Canada membership fee increase has been fully exhausted this quarter. The market is still eyeing a possible special dividend.
The contradiction is this: the more impressive the sales, the more it shows the resilience of US consumption, the harder it is for inflation to ease, and the further away the rate cut expectations are — good results are actually bad news. The stock price has only risen about 5% this year and fallen nearly 18% from its historical high; the market has already priced this in.
Don't rush to read this as retail news; this earnings report is like the water meter on the Federal Reserve's faucet, measuring not sales volume but the water pressure of rate cuts.
In the short term, focus on the wording about renewal rates and profit margins during the post-market call; in the long term, see how long this membership well can be tapped. The open card test is the question outside the paper.
$COST $BTC
The above is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.Today's approximately $16.5 billion BTC+ETH options expiration is more important than the candlestick chart.
BTC has about $14.4 billion nominal value, with a put/call ratio around 0.84, and the max pain point is at 78,000.
Spot price is hovering around 84,400, still some distance from the pain point.
The settlement window is around 4 PM Beijing time, followed by durable goods data and CME contract settlement.
Simply put: hedging before expiration suppresses volatility; after expiration, the buffer is removed, and the real buy and sell orders emerge.
My view: don’t rush to interpret the rise and fall as the end of the trend.
I’m more interested to see if it can hold above 84,000 after settlement and whether ETF buying picks up.
Clear invalidation condition: if it quickly breaks below about 83,000 after settlement, treat it as a range pullback and do not add positions.
Are you more worried about a drop after expiration, or more hopeful for a continued surge to 90,000 after volatility releases?
$BTC $ETH $IBIT
#BTC rise and fall, has market rotation begun? #US-Iran resume contact, will risk premium decrease?Extending an olive branch while holding a trump card
#美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升
Oil prices have been like an elevator these past three days.
As of 08:03 on September 25, the US and Iran had an indirect contact lasting about 3 hours on September 22 in New York, mediated by Qatar and others. Trump called it productive. Brent briefly fell below $100, and on September 23 intraday it was near $98; but Iran did not withdraw its original conditions, and Pezeshkian reiterated no surrender, so Brent bounced back near $103.
First down then up, the market is not pricing in a ceasefire, but pricing in rumors of a ceasefire. Strait of Hormuz navigation, maritime blockade, asset freezes—none of these have eased.
To put it plainly, the current oil price is buying a trailer, not the main feature; the trailer can be pulled at any time.
Don’t rush to zero out the geopolitical premium; the two sides can’t even agree on the agenda at the negotiation starting point.
In the short term, oil prices will fluctuate with headlines; in the long term, watch for substantive moves on navigation and asset unfreezing. Whether the premium drops or not, don’t ask the headlines, ask the list of conditions.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
The above is personal opinion only and does not constitute investment advice.Here's a common mistake after a winning streak: getting carried away and increasing your bet, trying to prove you're right.
In the past few days, I called the direction correctly several times; $BTC has dropped all the way from 86,000. The comment section is full of "Bear God YYDS," and some even advise me to "go all in short while the trend lasts, don't hesitate." But after playing poker for so many years, I know very well—winning several hands in a row is actually the most dangerous time. People start betting to "prove" themselves rather than for the "odds."
Tonight, the market bounced back from deeply oversold levels above 84,000, and $SOL led the gains by over two points. I believe the macro factors (interest rates, oil prices, the dollar) are not done yet, but a sharp spike could come at any time, wiping out both naked longs and shorts. At this point, I'd rather stay on the sidelines than catch a falling knife just for the sake of pride.
Don't be results-oriented. Being right about the direction doesn't mean entering the market at this very second is correct. Losing one less trade is often more valuable than winning one more.Signal calls for altcoin season, the market is pulling the plug on altcoins
#BTC surged then fell, has market rotation begun?
This situation is a bit twisted.
As of September 25th 08:03, BTC has dropped from 87,000 to around 84,000. Glassnode signals have shifted to "altcoins dominant," with 72.5% of tracked assets outperforming BTC in the past week; but on the other hand, BTC only fell 2%, DOGE dropped nearly 8%, XRP, ZEC, HYPE fell over 5%, and $444 million long positions liquidated in 24 hours.
The paradox is this: indicators say money is flowing out, but the market says money just has nowhere to go. Early altcoin gains rely heavily on sentiment and contracts pushing; when BTC turns back, no one is there to catch below.
Simply put, this "altcoin season" is like BTC borrowing speakers for a party; once BTC cuts the power, the whole venue goes silent first.
Don't rush to treat "altcoin season" as a relay starting gun; today's roughly $16 billion options expiry volatility has yet to settle.
In the short term, watch if BTC can hold 84,000; in the long term, see if the diffusion is a real recovery or a false signal. Indicators turning bullish are not entry signals; capital holding ground is.
$BTC $DOGE $ZEC
The above is personal opinion only and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC 9.25 Friday BTC Market In-Depth Analysis
First, let's review yesterday's (Thursday 9.24) market. BTC was in a weak oscillation throughout the day, repeatedly testing support around 83500. After the recent surge to 87000 met resistance, the bulls' momentum has been continuously weakening, with a large amount of trapped positions accumulated above. Any rebound triggers selling pressure. There were multiple small rebounds during the session, but volume couldn't keep up, typical of a weak rebound without volume. With US Treasury yields rising, the market's expectations for Fed policy remain cautious, and capital inflow willingness is weak. Overall, this is a pullback and shakeout after a big rally, with bulls and bears tugging between 83500-85500, setting the stage for today's options expiry battle.
Today is Friday, a key day for quarterly options expiry and the most important time node this week. Massive options contracts settle today, so intraday spikes and rapid sweeps will be more frequent than on normal trading days. Market makers need to constantly adjust hedge positions, which can easily cause instant up-and-down spikes that specifically target stop losses on both sides. Do not let short-term rapid fluctuations mislead your judgment.
After the morning open, BTC continued yesterday's range-bound oscillation without breaking into a one-sided trend.
If the price tests upward, there is a large accumulation of call option strike positions at 85000-85500, acting like a pressure wall. As the price approaches, market makers' hedging selling pressure will suppress the rise, making it difficult to break through in one go;
If the price pulls back downward, there is bottom-fishing capital and put option defensive positions around 83500-84000.Teaching you how to read a piece of geopolitical news, don’t be led by surface emotions.
Tonight Netanyahu declared at the UN General Assembly, "Attacking Iran was the easiest decision I've ever made," while in Saudi Arabia, Jizan just sounded and then lifted a threat alarm—the Middle East is heating up again. Many people have a reflex: war means risk aversion, so $BTC should rise.
Hold on. Over the past six months, what has truly weighed down risk assets is never "whether there is a war," but the chain behind the war: geopolitical tension → oil prices stepping up → inflation rising again → the Federal Reserve unable to pivot → interest rates so high that risk assets have to suffer. Geopolitics just adds fuel to this inflation machine; it doesn’t hand BTC safe-haven funds.
So don’t shout bullish every time you see a missile. First ask: in the end, will this affect oil prices and interest rates going up or down? Think this through before talking about risk aversion.Don't just look at how many points the rebound gained; look at how it rose.
Tonight $BTC bounced back from deep oversold to 84,000, which looks encouraging on the surface. But two details make me frown: first, the leader in the rally is a high beta altcoin like $SOL, while BTC itself is just moving sideways; second, the entire rebound happened with almost no volume, volume ratio shrank to near zero.
A volume-less rebound led by the weakest leg—in my view, this looks more like a bull trap than real capital returning. A true reversal requires seeing BTC itself increase volume, hold steady, and lead the charge, not altcoins jumping first with the big brother just pretending behind.
So this bullish candle, I see it as a technical correction after oversold conditions, not a trend reversal. Wait for volume to confirm before discussing direction. Are you trusting this move and entering, or like me, just watching for now? $ZEC Is it about to take over $BTC's market share?
Bankless co-founder David Hoffman directly compared ZEC in 2026 to ETH in 2021: back then, ETH was absorbing funds overflowing from BTC, and now ZEC is also absorbing that money. ZEC's market cap has surged from about $200 million to $26 billion, and it has risen about 93% in the past month alone. This story is indeed crazy.
But I think what’s really worth watching is not whether "ZEC can replicate ETH," but whether BTC's money has actually started to flow out. Currently, ZEC spot ETFs still have a single-day net inflow of $32.8 million, with a cumulative net inflow of about $306 million, which at least shows that the buying pressure is not purely driven by contract hype.
The problem is: ZEC's price has recently pulled back from around $1,646 to $1,480, while derivatives open interest remains at the billion-dollar level, indicating heavy leverage.
So I agree with the direction of "BTC wealth spillover," but it does not directly mean ZEC can replicate ETH in 2021. If BTC remains sideways and ZEC can continue to attract spot funds, then this story is real; if only open interest and sentiment are carrying it, then the $26 billion market cap is already starting to scare itself.Account Position Divergence Radar
$DOGE top accounts are more long-biased, but position distribution is short-biased: top accounts long-short ratio is 1.630, top positions long-short ratio is 0.779; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 3.236; price increased by 0.30%, position value changed by +0.06%. The side with the majority of accounts is opposite to the side with the majority of positions, indicating divergence between account structure and position distribution.
$PEPE top accounts and top positions are both short-biased: top accounts long-short ratio is 0.980, top positions long-short ratio is 0.794; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 2.602; price increased by 0.48%, position value changed by +0.66%.
$WLD top accounts and top positions are both short-biased: top accounts long-short ratio is 0.763, top positions long-short ratio is 0.892; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 2.281; price increased by 0.18%, position value changed by -0.16%.
DOGE, PEPE, WLD: overall market account structure is long-biased, which also differs from the top position bias.
PEPE, WLD: the account number structure and position distribution of the top groups are aligned.Confirming the candle close above the EMA200 on D1 along with a spike in Volume is a clear technical signal of a trend reversal.
However, the real strength of $SAGA lies in its shift towards the AI Consumer Platform:
🔹 An ideal infrastructure for AI Agents to execute thousands of micro-transactions with low latency
🔹 A Value Capture model B2B / Dev-pays Model
Stake SAGA to both secure the network and receive ecosystem Airdrops
If Saga AI Labs truly attracts the flow of AI Agents, this will be a sustainable growth driver$BTC $ETH
A few days ago, it was still pushing around $87,000, but in the blink of an eye, it has returned to around $84,000. Coincidentally, today also hits the quarterly options expiry, with nearly $16 billion nominal value of options expiring on Bitcoin alone, and Bitcoin and Ethereum combined close to $18 billion. At this level, a bit of volatility is really not surprising.
What's more troublesome is that U.S. Treasury yields are also pushing higher. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly exceeded 5%, meaning holding dollar assets can yield higher returns, so risk assets naturally come under pressure.
But the strange thing is—Bitcoin did not crash directly.
There are repeated buyers around $84,000, indicating the market is not without buyers. The chips that rose earlier are being reshuffled, with both bulls and bears waiting for the other side to make a mistake first.
So I’m not in a hurry to call a bull market, nor am I rushing to call a bear market.
$84,000 is the level I’m most focused on right now.
If it holds, it means this round of pullback is mostly profit-taking digestion, and it wouldn’t be surprising to challenge $85,000 or even $87,000 again later.
But if $84,000 is continuously broken, and U.S. Treasury yields keep rising, then caution is needed; the market may continue to look for lower support.
In today’s market, the easiest mistake is to mistake a big bullish candle for a reversal, or a big bearish candle for a crash.
First, watch who is buying and who is selling.Here's a common mistake after a winning streak: getting carried away and increasing your bet, trying to prove you're right.
In the past few days, I called the direction correctly several times; $BTC has dropped all the way from 86,000. The comment section is full of "Bear God YYDS," and some even advise me to "go all in short while the trend lasts, don't hesitate." But after playing poker for so many years, I know very well—winning several hands in a row is actually the most dangerous time. People start betting to "prove" themselves rather than for the "odds."
Tonight, the market bounced back from deeply oversold levels above 84,000, and $SOL led the gains by over two points. I believe the macro factors (interest rates, oil prices, the dollar) are not done yet, but a sharp spike could come at any time, wiping out both naked longs and shorts. At this point, I'd rather stay on the sidelines than catch a falling knife just for the sake of pride.
Don't be results-oriented. Being right about the direction doesn't mean entering the market at this very second is correct. Losing one less trade is often more valuable than winning one more.#USStockExplorationTokenizationAndAllWeatherTrading
Four US stock derivatives launched on the same day, but the easiest thing to overlook is not the direction, but that they do not open at the same time.
OKX announced that the four Equity X-Perp contracts IONQUSD, SKDDUSD, ASTSUSD, and SMCIUSD will be launched in batches today. Converted to Beijing time, the opening times are 17:00, 17:15, 17:30, and 17:45 respectively. Although they appear to be the same batch of products, in reality, only one opens every 15 minutes.
Under this arrangement, I would not use the opening performance of the previous contract to infer the next one. Quantum computing, satellite communication, and AI servers are inherently sectors with high narrative elasticity. When a new contract just opens, the market depth and transaction continuity have not yet been tested, and a few chasing orders can amplify volatility.
What is truly worth watching is whether the spread narrows quickly after opening, whether trading continues, and whether there is any abnormal deviation between the price and the corresponding stock reference market. One contract rising first does not mean the entire theme group has received the same strength of buying.
Launching just adds another trading channel, not an additional layer of liquidity guarantee. The more familiar the stock name, the easier it is to forget that you are trading a newly opened leveraged derivative. $IONQ $ASTS $SMCI SanDisk received a buy rating from Rosenblatt with a target price of $2400, and sentiment in the storage sector has spilled over to the computing power concept. CL, as a related target, has attracted short-term attention, but I judge this wave of linkage to be more emotional and not suitable for chasing highs. Looking at the market, it rose 2% in 24h to 93.82, with a turnover of 16.725 million, a funding rate of 0, and open interest of 444,000, with bulls and bears in a stalemate. Both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts are trending downward, down 3.43% and 7.59% from the highs respectively. Sell orders slightly dominate at 59,000. Resistance is at 96.72 above, and support at 91.24 below. Strategy-wise, lightly go long on a pullback to 91.85, stop loss at 90.35, target 95.65; if it rallies to around 96.35 and is resisted, short for a quick trade, stop loss at 97.55, target 92.85. Total position should not exceed 20%, with strict stop loss.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading.——
$CL#闪迪获Rosenblatt买入评级，目标价2400美元
#闪迪获Rosenblatt买入评级，目标价2400美元 $CL