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Regarding $BCH, why is it so strong right now? Could it become like $ZEC?
Currently, the positive news about BCH is all about ETF applications. It's similar to how after the big $BTC ETF succeeded, the market started looking for the next PoW asset that might get approved! Plus, the big $BTC ETF has seen continuous large net inflows, driving the entire sector! Also, as long as institutions or large funds keep buying, the price elasticity is very high. This is very, very similar to ZEC! But its business sector is peer-to-peer electronic cash, and its real-world adoption hasn't exploded. So the recent rise is more about ETF and capital logic. Moving forward, we need to watch whether $BTC falls below or holds above 80,000 and whether ETF applications continue to progress. In summary, so far only $BTC, $ETH, and ZEC have successfully applied for ETFs, which is enough to see the changes in volume. The market is looking for the next target, so everyone can pay attention to products like BCH, NEAR, etc., because they have all submitted ETF applications!🎯 $ZEC is consolidating below 1590 with shrinking volume, waiting for a directional choice
Current price 1545, 4-hour range 1536-1563, volume significantly contracted.
Daily candle closed up 2%, one of the few resilient picks in the privacy sector.
Positive catalyst: 21Shares will launch Europe's first Zcash spot ETP, opening an entry channel for institutional funds, but the price has not yet reflected this positive news.
Resistance above at 1556–1561 is strong; two consecutive attempts to break through were rejected.
Support at 1533, 1536; if broken, the next target is 1501.
Funding rate 0.0049%, longs paying slightly, no short squeeze currently.
Currently not weakening, but a stalemate between bulls and bears, with volume continuously shrinking; neither side willing to make the first move.
Conclusion: Before the ETP launch or sector rally begins, it will likely continue to grind with low volume; chasing highs at this level is risky. $BTC $ETH 1️⃣ Why did this breakout happen?
1. BTC leading: Bitcoin surged to 84,000–85,000, risk appetite returned, ETH/BTC bottomed and rebounded
2. Macro pressure eased: oil prices fell → inflation worries decreased, despite the Fed raising rates by 25bp and the CLARITY Act being rejected, the market still priced in the "bad news"
3. ETF capital inflow: US spot ETH ETFs saw continuous net inflows from 9/21 to 9/24
4. Short covering + whale withdrawals: exchange ETH reserves declined, short liquidations drove a short-term surge
2️⃣ Key price levels
Support: 2680 / 2650 / 2626 (if 2600 breaks, the breakout structure weakens)
Resistance: 2760–2786 → 2800 → 2894 → 3000
Holding above 2700 and not breaking on pullback → target 2800, 3000; surging with volume but stalling → likely to retrace
3️⃣ Risks to watch
RSI near overbought, Stochastic high, short-term profit-taking pressure; mainnet active addresses/transactions have not fully kept pace with price, indicating this move is driven by "macro + derivatives + ETF," not purely on-chain fundamentals.$CORE saw a post today that analyzed this very well. Every day, CORE and BTC holders provide security for the Core network through staking. But what really deserves attention might not be the "staking" itself, but the security model behind it. The security of traditional PoS networks largely depends on the native token. Core is trying to build another path: CORE + BTC → multi-asset economic security. Why is this important? Because the consensus security of a single asset is naturally affected by its own price and market size. When different types of assets jointly participate in network security, theoretically it can: 🔹 Diversify single-asset risk 🔹 Increase the economic cost of attacking the network 🔹 Expand the capital base participating in consensus 🔹 Introduce BTC's huge economic value into the on-chain security system And this is exactly a very worthwhile long-term direction for BTCFi: BTC is not just "used," it can also be used to provide network security. From this perspective, what Core wants to do may not just be a BTCFi application ecosystem. It seems more like exploring a bigger question: Can Bitcoin's huge capital pool become the economic security layer for other blockchains? If the answer is ultimately yes, then BTC's role may expand from: Store of Value further to: Financial Asset → DeFi CoIn the next phase, most people will sell their altcoins too early.
During altcoin season, the more hacker incidents and negative news there are, the stronger the altcoins tend to rise.
Look at this BTC.D chart.A few days ago, after the news that Binance invested in Circle came out, many people said the market hadn't yet reacted to this big positive news, and the price hadn't reflected it yet. At that time, everyone was saying $80 was Binance's buying price, and now it's $95, which means it's basically on the same starting line as Binance.
However, in the past two days, CRCL has already dropped to $88, and today there are rumors that its CFO has resigned. I have always believed that you shouldn't trade based on news or chase highs just because of positive news. The crypto world today is no longer the simple model it used to be; it has become a difficult mode.
Countless institutions and teams are watching the news, and the moment positive news comes out, they instantly buy in. When ordinary people chase the price higher afterward, they are just providing liquidity for those institutions to exit. So I never do short-term news trading. I understand that I don't have the skills, and as an ordinary person, why would I chase highs and take over the position after positive news and still be able to make money and walk away unscathed?
News trading is essentially short-term trading and speculation. I believe more in long-term strategy. CRCL, as the first stablecoin stock, the leader in compliant stablecoins, and the cornerstone stablecoin of DeFi, its fundamentals haven't changed. I will only add to my position on dips. Be a friend of time and gradually become wealthy.US Treasury yields soar, BTC under pressure!
The US 10-year Treasury yield surged to 5.18%, a new high since 2007, with funds continuously flowing into the bond market. $BTC struggles around $84,000. Coupled with the massive $350 million Bitget hack, market sentiment is shaken. Institutional view: Only by holding above $85,000 will miner pressure ease.
$ETH slightly rises, breaking a year-long downtrend line, but faces resistance twice at the $2,800 level, with heavy selling pressure above.
The spotlight is on $SOL, surging to $122, a six-month high. Stablecoin regulations are favorable; in September, SOL staking increased by 2.83 million tokens (about $300 million), with funds continuously entering.
#US long-term Treasury yields continue to climb, financing pressure intensifies Yesterday, Bitcoin opened at 84,300 and closed at 85,000, rising more than 10% within a week. Ethereum also rose nearly 10% during the same period. What's interesting is not the increase itself, but a subtle piece of news: The U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency has required Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to include cryptocurrencies in the asset scope for mortgage loans. In other words, from now on, the coins you hold can count as collateral for your down payment when buying a house. This is the most straightforward implementation of RWA—not just a concept diagram in a whitepaper, but a real loan approval form with actual money. I often say that many positive developments in the crypto world are like the early stages of a romance—full of romantic words. Mortgages are different; banks are the most pragmatic. They only put your coins into contracts if they recognize their value. This time, it’s truly written into the contract. Wall Street is also buzzing. Some fund managers are shouting that Bitcoin will hit $250,000, while others say the crypto winter has just ended and caution against premature optimism. I think both sides are right; they just have different time horizons. In the short term, it depends on whether the Fed cuts interest rates. In the long term, this kind of collateral recognition is what will slowly rewrite the rules of the game. Everyone loves you when the market takes off; when the market is sideways, you see who the true supporters are. I’m not giving any trading advice this time, just a reminder: don’t just focus on the candlestick charts. Changes quietly happening in policy gaps are often more worth noting than the trading calls shouted on Twitter. peace #Bitcoin #RWA #Cryptocurrency #FederalReserve #MortgageCollateral #CryptoDaily $CORE 一句话总览 BTC‑Fi赛道故事讲得最完美，但落地严重滞后的独立L1公链。 优点：EVM兼容、代币21亿硬顶、叙事完整；致命短板：底层出过重大合约漏洞被迫紧急硬分叉，机构信任受损，两大王牌产品lstBTC、SatPay进展不及预期，流动性逐步收缩，抛压长期存在，行情大多属于大盘带动下的博弈反弹。 核心数据速览 - 代币硬顶：21亿枚（代码锁定） - 流通量：约15亿枚，剩余为国库、团队、节点质押，持续解锁释放 - 现价区间：0.023‑0.024美元附近震荡 - 技术位置：反弹压力0.027‑0.028**；第一支撑**0.022‑0.023；生命线0.018‑0.019$ 现状三句话 1. 链上网络：硬分叉修复后出块正常，但完整第三方审计报告至今未公开，机构心里仍有顾虑；比特币算力只能防51%攻击，解决不了合约逻辑漏洞。 2. 产品飞轮停滞 lstBTC仅对机构开放，新增铸造量几乎停滞；SatPay比特币借记卡持续延期，没有确切上线日期，只有预约名单，没有实际业务。原本设想的“手续费回购CORE”目前还没有实现。 3. 交易所与筹码 头部交易所现货保Last year's #1011 was a devastating blow for many people—a collective collapse of altcoins that looked like a massive exit scam scene.
Afterwards, many people quit the space outright, and among those who stayed, a large number vowed never to touch altcoins again.
But looking back now, those strong coins that held on have fully recovered their losses, some rising 5 to 6 times from the bottom.
What’s most worth pondering here isn’t "how much was missed," but how panic is priced:
During the crash, everyone sold off using the same logic, and the price was filled with emotion rather than value. So the same coin can be tagged with completely different prices in fear versus calm.
The word "crisis" itself holds the answer—there is opportunity within danger.
Of course, the premise is that you have to survive until that day, not be forced out at the lowest point. 🙏AAVE broke through the 153 historical platform, how to trade this position
Today we discuss AAVE strategy, starting with the structure
Current price is 156, the upper boundary of the 60-period range is 156, today's daily K candle directly hit the ceiling
Volume is the key signal, 4-hour volume rose from 7852 to 19684, nearly 1.5 times increase
Don't chase on volume surge without price increase, only consider when volume breaks the platform
So my judgment is this wave is a volume breakout, not a pump and dump
Enter after confirmation, do not trade the first candle
Lightly test long near 153 on pullback, 10% position, stop loss below 149
If it breaks, it means the breakout is fake
Target first look at 165, risk-reward ratio about 1 to 2.5
If volume surges and directly breaks through 156.65 resistance, don't chase on pullback, wait for stabilization and confirmation
Keep position under 30%, this asset's fee rate is capped at 0.0077%, bulls are already paying
Breakouts are for testing and error, not for heavy positions
$AAVE $BTC #DeFi #strategy#USDT.D confirmed a bullish divergence on the daily chart.
This usually means capital is flowing back into stablecoins, and the market may face a broader correction.
But don't expect a new low.I've been holding a short position on big coin $BTC for two days now,
let me share my feelings.
First, when big coin dropped below 83000,
the market was quite pessimistic,
including me.
Some even expected a pullback to 72000,
so I originally planned to short on a rebound at 85000,
I posted about this earlier.
Because I was anxious, I entered the short at 84000.
This caused a poor entry point.
I held the position yesterday, and last night it rebounded to 85250,
while second coin $ETH rebounded even more ridiculously to 2745.
At that moment, my heart was really bleeding,
fortunately, it soon crashed down.
Last night the crash bottomed at 83100,
I had my hand on the close position button at this level,
after thinking for a while,
I decided to hold on.
For this pullback,
my target is at least around 80000,
and further down I can see 76000.
What do you guys think? Check my pinned post. The profits of long-term Bitcoin holders have dropped from nearly 350% in December 2024 to about 72% $BTC
This indicates that at the end of 2024, long-term holders saw Bitcoin rise very high and sold in large quantities, earning nearly 3.5 times (350%) on average when selling, with heavy distribution, like "chip distribution" $ETH
But now, when they sell, they only earn a little over 70% (72%) on average, with much smaller profits, and the enthusiasm for selling has clearly cooled down
This level is more like the situation in previous bear markets, rather than the frenzy of cashing out at the peak of a bull market
This shift is important because it shows the market is no longer experiencing the same degree of profit-taking seen in the stronger distribution phase of the last cycle, and it also indicates the market environment has moved far away from peak distribution intensity $SOL
Long-term Bitcoin holders have moved out of the "crazy high-level selling" phase, and selling pressure is not as strong
They are more willing to hold on and wait to sell at higher prices, rather than rushing to cash out 政策面"利空出尽"反而成催化：CLARITY法案9月16日未获60票门槛，但市场解读为"监管不确定性短期释放"，风险偏好反而回升。Bitwise首席投资官Hougan宣称"加密寒冬"结束，进入"加密春天"。 美联储加息落地消化：9月17日美联储加息25bp落地后，市场从"恐惧不确定性"转向"定价已知环境"，BTC作为风险资产获得重新定价。 资金面改善：现货BTC ETF此前连续8个交易日净流入累计28亿美元；未平仓合约过去7天增加8.8%至557亿美元（90天第92百分位），表明交易员主动加杠杆入场，而非被动逼空。 技术信号转多：BTC首次在约10个月内周线收于50周均线上方，CoinMarketCap研究主管认为这"改变了讨论方向"——市场焦点从"底部在哪"转向"是否新牛市开启"。恐惧贪婪指数升至77，进入"贪婪"区间。 $BTC #ETH short positions surged 8,300% in two weeks, hitting the highest level since June 2022, which is indeed astonishing.
However, large short positions on Bitfinex are not necessarily directional bets.
They could be hedges, arbitrage, or market makers' neutral positions.
Interpreting these positions directly as "someone knows insider information" overlooks the composition and motives of exchange users.
Large short positions do not necessarily mean a price drop, nor do they necessarily mean a short squeeze; it depends on which way the price moves first.Rate hikes haven't crashed BTC; Micron is the key to the market
In this round of Federal Reserve rate hikes, BTC did not weaken, rising to 87,000 before pulling back, currently oscillating between 84,000 and 85,000.
The core reason is that negative factors were fully priced in advance, combined with nearly $1 billion net inflow into BTC ETFs in a single day, with institutions providing long-term support. The market resilience is very strong and is no longer dominated by retail sentiment.
US consumer data remains strong, inflation cooling is difficult, and the Fed still holds hawkish expectations. What truly influences the market direction now is not the rate hike, but Micron's earnings report.
Whether AI storage demand can translate into profits directly determines the sentiment of tech stocks and the crypto market. If earnings exceed expectations, the market will warm up; if performance disappoints, it will likely trigger a correlated pullback.
Trading strategy: Do not chase highs, hold the 83,000–84,000 support, wait quietly for Micron's earnings report to land, then decide the next direction.
⚠️ Market review only, not investment advice #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ 🔥Narrow-range tug-of-war is the most patience-testing; a real breakout is actually cleaner.
Mainstream coins have been consolidating sideways for the sixth day, with bulls and bears both holding their cards close. $ETH oscillates around 2635, facing selling pressure at 2672 above and support at 2608 below. I hold a long position at 2648, reducing half on the rally and adding back on the pullback to the moving average, continuing to hold.
BTC fluctuates between 84000 and 86000, with both long chasers and short sellers getting hit. SOL is running an independent trend, up 3% to 117; the quick rise carries high pullback risk, so I’m just watching, not trading.
Frequent direction changes are the worst during consolidation; back-and-forth trades easily get eaten by slippage. At this stage, no new positions are added; existing longs are held. Until the range breaks, intraday moves are just tests.
👉 Do you predict a breakout upwards or downwards first?
⚠️ Market observation only, not investment advice #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ Don't treat Ethereum as just a speculative trading asset. At its core, it is a settlement layer. The price may surge and plunge, but the L2 ecosystem is continuously encroaching on traditional finance's territory. Market trends are just the surface; the real battle is in infrastructure competition. $ETH Finally, let's wrap up with the news and what to watch next. Capital flow: Buying interest in US spot ETFs was actually very strong this week. From Monday to Thursday, spot ETFs like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and Zcash combined absorbed about $3.04 billion, with Bitcoin at about $2.25 billion and Ethereum about $600 million. Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows for six consecutive trading days through September 24, but the daily amount has been declining for three consecutive days, from about $999 million on Monday to about $190 million on Thursday. The figures for Friday, September 25 are still not finalized: both Bitcoin and Ethereum still have BlackRock's stock without returns; Solana has an initial price of about $86.7 million, and there's another stock that hasn't returned. These should be taken as references for now, not forced to compile. Futures side: As of 9:30 last night, in the 24 hours, there were about $300 million in net liquidation, with 121 million long positions and 180 million short positions. This time, the short positions were more heavily exposed, related to the upward short squeeze from altcoin markets. OKX's perpetual funding rate showed that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana were slightly positive, while Dogecoin and Ripple were at 0.01% basic levels, showing no overheating overall. Solana's open interest increased by about 8% in a day, making it the most leveraged among these coins. Macroeconomic Report: Last night, US stocks closed higher, with the Dow up about 0.9% and the S&P up about 0.5%, mainly due to Iran's proposal to end the war, oil一平仓就暴涨，这到底是行情太邪门，还是仓位太拥挤？ 你也有过"卖在最低点"的瞬间吗？ 我看到那条 $AKE $ZEC $ONE 的吐槽时，第一反应不是笑，而是警觉。一个人平仓后价格立刻拉升，表面像运气问题，背后往往说明一件事：筹码在极窄区间里完成了换手，卖压被吃掉了，而触发点来得非常突然。 这条帖子里真正值得看的，不是他喊冤，而是他提到的三个标的和三条宏观标签放在一起：美联储重启加息讨论、BTC 仍有韧性、美债长端利率攀升。这三件事同时出现，本身就是一个事件重定价的现场。 先看传导路径。 长端利率往上走，通常意味着融资成本变贵，风险偏好会被压。但 BTC 没有立刻崩，说明市场这次交易的不是"加息等于利空"这条老逻辑，而是在交易"谁更抗压"。当美债收益率抬升，部分资金反而会去找非主权、非信用的资产做对冲。这是偏多的那条线。 但别急着兴奋。 如果利率上行是因为通胀预期重新抬头，而不是增长强劲，那山寨会先受伤。$AKE $ZEC $ONE 这类标的的反弹，很可能只是空头回补和低流动性下的脉冲，不是趋势启动。ZEC 有隐私叙事，ONE 有扩容概念，AKE 更偏小市值弹性，它们的共同点是：盘子轻$QNT suddenly surged 39%, what exactly is the market rushing for this time?
QNT really has something going on this round. On September 24, it surged to $90.9, with a single-day trading volume of about $29 million, significantly higher than the previous day's $10.6 million. The price jumped from around $70 to above $90 in just two days.
The catalyst is indeed solid: The Clearing House selected Quant as the interoperability layer for the US banks' tokenized deposit network, connecting traditional payment systems like RTP and CHIPS, expected to open in the first half of 2027.
But there is a key detail here. From September 16 to 23, QNT's on-chain active addresses had already noticeably increased, reaching 2,064 on the 24th, indicating that the capital and attention were not entirely spontaneous. Meanwhile, Binance had previously delisted the QNT/USDC spot and margin trading pairs, making the market liquidity structure somewhat twisted.
I think this is the "institutional tokenization narrative starting to be priced in early." Whether it can hold above $90 is the key. If the trading volume continues to expand and on-chain activity persists, this story might shift from speculation on expectations to speculation on actual implementation.From the perspective of an ordinary user, the threshold for "running your own Ethereum node" is visibly lowering.
Vitalik said: now it can sync in half a day, and with aggressive configuration, disk usage is compressed to under 0.5TB.
A few years ago, the reality was that syncing took several days and hard drives had to start at TB scale, causing most people to try once and give up.
Two things are driving this change: one is EIP-4444, which allows nodes to no longer carry the entire historical data, and the other is the client teams' continuous refinement of snapshot syncing, with further optimizations coming in Glamsterdam.
Why does this matter: when the cost of "validation" is low enough for ordinary people to bear, only then do you have the right not to entrust your asset security entirely to third parties.
Technological progress will ultimately transform the way trust is established.$BTC The 30-minute chart resumed an upward trend after the pullback on the 16th, confirming the end of last week's trend after September 24 (the trend ended perfectly; due to too many strokes in the chart, the upward trend is described directly with line segments, and the red straight line roughly depicts the price range of the central zone). This ID has mentioned in previous posts that after the end of the 30-minute upward trend, it entered a consolidation phase that will form a larger daily-level central zone. In the daily candlesticks, it is very clear that the bars for the following four consecutive days are all contained within the 21-day range. In fact, even a daily-level top fractal has not yet formed. Therefore, it is uncertain whether the move starting from 75,000 will continue to break the high of 87,395.67 or directly enter a pullback phase. Based on the above analysis, the possibilities are:
First, continue the daily-level upward stroke, with resistance at the previous high.
Second, enter a daily-level pullback phase, with key support at 82,874.93. If this level is broken, attention will be paid to the appearance of a daily-level minor divergence (entry point).This is my brother's heartfelt confession! Got beaten up
Started with 100 USD, target 100,000. Worked hard for a month, account number: -30.
Here's how the script collapsed — shorted ZEC, got hit; shorted ETH, got hit; shorted some altcoins, kept getting hit. At the worst, holding more than a dozen short positions, bulls kept crushing wave after wave, all I could do was keep hitting stop loss.
At first, I was stubborn: "This is just a pullback, hold on and it will come down." Only at the end did I realize, it’s not that the market gives no way out, but that I was using the wrong script — applying bear market thinking in a bull market, everything went wrong.
This month's highest return hit 80%, now that number makes my eyes hurt. Three months of profits wiped out in a week, the principal is starting to show red alerts. Especially that ZEC trade, if I had admitted my mistake earlier, it wouldn’t have hurt this badly. Later, I made a little money going long, but all went to fill the holes from the short positions, robbing Peter to pay Paul.
What’s worse, I didn’t learn my lesson and went to short ONE again.
The market gave the harshest lesson: you think it should fall, but it stubbornly rises to show you.
But I’m still here, the table is still on. The challenge from 100 to 100,000 is not canceled, just changing tactics — survive first, then talk about making money. In crazy markets, staying at the table itself is a skill. $ETH #OKX星球话题来啦 My biggest change as a crypto trader:
I stopped judging myself by one trade.
A winner can be badly managed.
A loser can be perfectly executed.
Now I judge the process:
Did I follow my plan?
Did I manage risk?
Did I let emotions take over?
That's what I review after BTC or SOL trades.
What do you look at when reviewing a trade?I learned this from trading SOL:
When I feel like I MUST enter, that's usually when I should slow down.
FOMO makes every candle look important.
So now I step back and ask:
Would I still take this trade if price hadn't just moved?
If the answer is no, I wait.
How do you catch yourself before FOMO takes over?Something BTC taught me:
A trade can be technically correct and still be a bad trade if the risk is too big.
I care less about being right on every move now.
I care more about making sure one wrong trade can't damage my whole week.
Risk first. Trade second.
What changed your view on risk?我們來看一下 Solana 的部分。 現價約 121.4。一覺醒來，看起來跟昨天晚上差不多，看法也沒有太大改變。1 小時線上，今天凌晨最高碰到 122.4 左右，還是貼在這週高點附近，沒有再往上噴，也還沒有明顯掉下來。 操作上還是一樣：Solana 這個位置可以考慮去試空。止損照舊放在 140，因為 140 附近就是我們一直在講的壓力；昨天有提到 180 是比較寬的做法，但那樣 K 線圖真的很難看，我自己還是以 140 為主。 要特別講清楚，試空就是小倉位試單，不是一次把子彈全部打出去。補倉的點位之前已經跟大家說過了，照舊，不用臨時再加新的點；價格沒到你設定的位置，就不要自己亂加。 止盈的部分還是那句話，看個人。有人想吃一小段就走，有人想抱久一點，都可以，但止損一定要先掛好，而且要嚴格執行。不要因為看到它又彈一下就上頭，把止損往上拉，這是最容易出事的。 多單的部分，區間底 100 附近只是參考，現在這個位置不是做多的地方。 籌碼面上，ETF 最新落定的還是 9 月 24 日，美國現貨 Solana ETF 淨流入大約 3,280 萬美元，這週一到週四加起來大約 1 億美元。9 月 25My trading journal taught me something charts never did:
A lot of my bad trades weren't bad setups.
They were good setups taken at the wrong time.
FOMO.
Impatience.
Trying to make back a loss.
Now I review my decisions, not just my P&L.
Do you keep a trading journal?我們來看一下以太幣的部分。 現價約 2,684。睡一覺起來，以太跟比特幣一樣，看起來差不多，過去 24 小時大概在 2,670 到 2,740 之間，沒有走出新的方向。看法沒有改變。 以太這邊一樣在觀察，先不要輕舉妄動。多單預掛的點位之前已經分享過了，就是 2,400 到 2,500 這一帶。價格回到那邊，預掛單自己成交，止損跟著帶好；沒回去就等，不用急，也不要追。 它跟比特幣連動很高，大盤沒表態，以太通常也不會自己走出來。這種時候最怕的是手癢，看到山寨在動，就想在以太這邊也做點什麼。位置沒到，進去就只是在猜方向。 週末流動性差，插針多，更不適合在中間亂開。止盈看個人，止損一定掛好，不要上頭。 籌碼面上，ETF 最新落定的是 9 月 24 日，美國現貨以太幣 ETF 淨流入大約 6,600 萬美元，連續第五個交易日流入。這週一到週四，以太 ETF 加起來大約吸了 6 億美元，承接其實不差。9 月 25 日的數字還沒完整出來，貝萊德那檔還沒回報，先不硬湊。合約這邊，OKX 上以太永續資金費率小幅偏正，正常水位；未平倉量比昨天晚上少一些，槓桿有稍微退。截至昨天晚上的 24 小時，以太空單被Costco's Q4 revenue reached $95.7 billion, up 11% year-over-year, with profits exceeding expectations. Comparable sales increased by 6.7%, membership fee income rose 7%, and the renewal rate remains the highest globally. However, the stock price first rose 2.4% then fell back, as growth mainly relied on gasoline and travel, while home goods and electronics were average, and paid membership growth was below expectations. Membership lock-in is the core story; the slowdown in membership growth is more noteworthy than revenue exceeding expectations.
Next, watch Micron $MU, which will report earnings in the early hours of October 1 Beijing time. AI servers are competing for HBM, DRAM contract prices are still rising, and Goldman Sachs expects revenue of $51.9 billion and EPS of $32.54, both above consensus. But the stock price has already risen 280% this year, with expectations extremely high, so any slight miss could trigger a sell-off. China's ChangXin Memory has mass-produced its fifth-generation process, with LPDDR5X reaching world-class levels, changing the long-term supply landscape.
For $BTC, Costco's earnings report has no direct impact, but it is a thermometer of U.S. consumer sentiment—consumption hasn't collapsed, inflation is unlikely to fall quickly, and the Federal Reserve's expectation of a rate hike in October remains. BTC is stuck near 84,000, surged to 87,000 last week but fell back; without easing macro conditions, it is hard for BTC to have an independent rally. First, see if Micron can support the AI hardware sector.
#财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 我們來看一下比特幣的部分。 現價約 83,850。一覺醒來，比特幣看起來跟昨天差不多，晚上大概就在 83,700 到 84,100 這個小區間裡面晃，離這週 87,000 附近的高點還有一段距離。看法沒有太大改變。 比特幣這邊還是在觀察，先不要輕舉妄動。沒有特別的訊號出來，就不要為了有單而開單。 大框架照舊：這波上漲要說結束，還是要看真正跌破 74,000，在那之前我不會輕易看空，空單不要亂追。多單的部分，預掛的點位之前也跟大家分享過了，就是 78,000 或 80,000 附近埋伏。價格回到那邊，預掛單自己成交，止損一起帶好；沒回去，就繼續空手等，不要追。 預掛的好處就是，你不用一直盯盤，也不會因為看到一根 K 棒就衝動下單。週末流動性比較差，插針的機率也比較高，更不適合在中間亂開。 止盈看個人，止損一定要掛好，不要上頭。 籌碼面上，ETF 最新落定的是 9 月 24 日，美國現貨比特幣 ETF 淨流入大約 1.9 億美元，連續第六個交易日流入，六天加起來大約 28 億美元。不過每天的流入金額已經連三天在降，從週一大約 9.99 億，一路降到週四的 1.9 億，買盤有在降溫。9 月 ETH surged from 2700 to 2742 but then dropped back to 2683, with volume unable to keep up, indicating that the bulls lack genuine buying support. It looks more like a holiday liquidity-driven pump to lure buyers. Once it breaks down, 2700 will turn from support into resistance, with dense trapped positions above, causing any rebound to be crushed—this is a classic bull trap structure.
The impact on the crypto market has three layers:
First, on the sentiment level, holiday liquidity is naturally thin, and such fake breakouts severely damage short-term confidence, easily triggering chain stop-losses and amplifying volatility.
Second, on the structural level, 2650-2660 is a key support zone below; if it holds, there is still room for a rebound and position reduction. But if it breaks down effectively, the short-term trend worsens, and one should stop hoping for a V-shaped recovery.
Third, on the capital level, ETH weakness often drags down altcoins, especially those relying on the ETH ecosystem narrative, increasing the risk of catch-up declines. Conversely, if BTC can hold steady and ETH stabilizes above 2650, capital may continue rotating into utility tokens with real use cases rather than returning to pure sentiment-driven speculation.
In terms of trading: before firmly holding above 2700, treat all rebounds as potential traps; those trapped at high levels should neither hold nor add positions; if it breaks below 2650, stop losses should be executed. The market is brutal, but survival means there will be a next round. Happy Mid-Autumn Festival, and may you exit your positions soon.BTC is now fluctuating around 84,000. My response is very simple:
1. If it falls below 80,000 again, it means this rebound might fail. I will start closing long positions and turn bearish, not fighting the market.
2. If it doesn’t give enough chance to switch and quickly surges to 90,000 in a short time, I will consider placing some defensive short positions between 89,000 and 95,000 to hedge against pullback risk. If it effectively holds above 100,000, the short logic fails, and I will admit my mistake and exit.
3. If BTC doesn’t rise straight up but oscillates fully and repeatedly between 80,000 and 100,000, washing out chips thoroughly, then the defensive position can be moved up to 105,000–115,000.
I don’t predict exactly how BTC will move, just prepare three scenarios in advance. When the price hits the point, I execute; if conditions fail, I retreat. I can play small trades in between, opening small positions for fun, but large positions must be controlled well. The market can be guessed wrong, but position size must not get out of control. Always losing money, what to do?_0926 8:46
Losing money is normal; it depends on how you lose, which determines whether you can make money in the future.
No one in this world can make money from the trading market without paying a penny in tuition fees, not even geniuses.
💌 Always losing, never made a profit
If you haven't even doubled your principal and have already lost everything,
a. It means your trading system has problems and needs to be completely overhauled;
b. Temporarily do not open positions, if you must, open at most 1u without leverage, observe and learn first;
c. Learn to read candlesticks first, do not look at any indicators.
If you haven't made money for several months, half a year, or a year, this market might not be suitable for you, and you should consider quitting.
If you really encounter this situation, the only investment advice is: regularly invest in S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 stop-loss funds. This is the only way you can make money, no other options.
💌 Mostly making money, occasionally liquidated
You have made profits before, even multiplied several times, but eventually got liquidated. This means the trading system is generally fine, the problem lies in position management, requiring more rationality and restraint.
a. Cut margin at least by half, or even more
Previously, a position opened with 20x leverage and 100u, now open at most 50u;
b. Stop loss earlier
Set stop loss closer, for example, if previously set at -100u loss, now change to -50u; and avoid buying impulsively.
💌 Never gamble on luck at any time, it's a guaranteed loss!Bears interpret the worst news as good news
Bulls interpret the best news as bad news
From September to December 2025, there were three consecutive interest rate cuts, Trump issued currency, and everyone expected an era of massive liquidity injection,
That's the peak
This round's MSTR almost blew up, the last round's FTX blew up, 3AC blew up, that's the bottom
On the contrary, those events in the middle of the market that are not so bullish or bearish only have limited impact on short-term fluctuations.
What about the election, Japan's rate hike causing carry trade rewind, Europe's rate hike, Germany selling $BTC, BTC, Mt. Gox's stolen BTC returned to users $ETH,
All irrelevant noise.
Similar statements say to avoid risk ahead of this midterm election, but risk was already avoided in advance, and prices had long been priced in.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？
#稳定币新规推进，支付结算加速落地 The longer you stay on-chain, the more you realize one thing: regularly changing wallets and properly saving your mnemonic phrases are not redundant actions, but the most basic protection for yourself. Many assets are still stuck in old addresses. Some people have used wallets like Magic Eden, Xverse, etc., and still have their mnemonic phrases, but many platforms no longer support ordinals assets, and the assets haven't been moved. At this point, batch organization becomes very important. UniSat's UTXO management tool can be used to batch transfer assets in wallets, currently supporting Runes, Alkanes, and others (rare satoshis are not supported yet). The general operation path is: import the old wallet's mnemonic phrase into UniSat, then transfer the assets to a new address. When the market is hot, everyone is busy trading; when it's cold, it's even more important to organize your underlying assets properly. #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒
Costco's earnings report proves consumption hasn't collapsed, but it's not booming either. The real highlight is next week’s Micron—another "beat expectations," but possibly a completely different story.
Costco Q4 revenue was $95.7 billion, up 11.1% year-over-year, beating expectations; EPS was $6.75, also beating expectations. Same-store sales rose 9.4%, and digital sales increased 19.5%. The stock price rose slightly by 0.26% during trading, hovering around $898.
Micron takes the baton after market close on September 30. The market expects Q4 revenue of about $51.2 billion, a staggering 352% year-over-year increase; Non-GAAP EPS around $31. The company’s own guidance is $49-51 billion, with market expectations already above the guidance.
But the real risk lies in the guidance. If Q4 revenue only hits the midpoint of $50 billion, it will be below recent expectations. The market focus has shifted to the outlook for Q1 of fiscal 2027—whether HBM4 customer validation can convert into orders, and how long the high prices for server DRAM can hold, are the key factors determining the stock price.
Costco uses consumer data to prove the U.S. economy hasn’t collapsed; Micron needs to prove whether the high prices for AI storage can continue. The same "beat expectations," one is on defense, the other on offense. Watch Micron’s next quarter guidance—that’s the next chapter in the AI hardware story.First, clarify a premise: the essence of rebalancing is "disciplined selling high and buying low".
The biggest risk in a crypto asset portfolio is not choosing the wrong assets, but forgetting to reduce positions when greedy and being afraid to add when fearful. The value of rebalancing rules is to turn these two actions from "subjective judgment" into "mechanical execution." Once the rules are set, do not change the thresholds temporarily due to short-term market fluctuations. $ETH is around $2,685, $SOL is around $118, and the total crypto market cap has returned above $3 trillion. The fear and greed index is at 71, in the "greedy" zone. This environment of "late-stage rally with leverage buildup" is exactly when constraint triggers are most needed.
Re-trigger mechanism: When to rebalance
1. Threshold trigger (core mechanism)
Rebalance is triggered when the actual weight of any single asset deviates from the target weight by more than the set range:
Conservative: deviation ±5 percentage points
Moderate: deviation ±5 percentage points (SOL relaxed to ±7)
Aggressive: deviation ±7 percentage points (SOL relaxed to ±10)
Assets with higher elasticity have wider trigger bands to avoid frequent "face slaps" from intraday volatility.
2. Time trigger (routine check)
A comprehensive review is done at the end of each quarter. Even if no asset hits the threshold, a forced check is done to see if target weights need adjustment due to market structure changes. One quarter is enough for narrative shifts in the crypto market.
3. Event trigger (ad hoc review)
Immediate portfolio review is triggered without waiting for quarter-end if any of the following occur:
Major macro/regulatory events: e.g., procedural vote on the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" on September 16 failing to reach 60 votes, Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points on September 17
Single asset weekly price change exceeding 20% (e.g., BTC rose over 6% in one day on September 21, with over 10 billion yuan liquidations across the network)
Single asset experiencing abnormal same-direction ETF fund flows for 5 consecutive trading days (e.g., recent BTC spot ETF net inflows for 6 consecutive days, ETH net inflows for 5 consecutive days)
3. Tiered rebalancing rules: differentiated treatment for three asset types
$BTC — only reduce, never lighten; priority to maintain weight as ballast
BTC acts as a safety buffer, so its rebalancing logic is the most conservative: only slightly reduce when weight exceeds the upper limit (each reduction keeps weight within 1.1 times the target), and prioritize replenishing with stablecoins when it falls below the lower limit. It is not recommended to reduce BTC weight below target due to short-term bearish views, as that means actively giving up the portfolio's ballast role.
ETH — dynamically adjust based on staking yield narrative
ETH's long-term growth logic currently has a variable to track: Ethereum staking yield has dropped from 5.06% in June 2023 to about 2.6% (staking rate reached a historical high of 34%). More importantly, EIP-8361 proposes to further reduce the annual consensus yield to 1.2% within 18 months.
This means ETH's "yield-bearing asset" narrative is weakening. Operational rule: if staking yield falls below 2%, under the backdrop of sustained high US Treasury yields, ETH target weight should be lowered by 5 percentage points, shifting to BTC or stablecoins; if yield stabilizes and rises, restore original weight. This rule is more important than simply watching price—it corresponds to a fundamental change in ETH institutional allocation logic.
$SOL — flexible position with hard stop profit and stop loss
SOL is the most volatile part of the portfolio and must have independent hard discipline outside of rebalancing:
Take profit: when cumulative gains exceed 100%, reduce half of the flexible position to lock in profits
Stop loss: when drawdown from a stage high exceeds 40%, unconditionally reduce to the lower limit of target weight
Migration signal: if on-chain high-frequency trading and Meme ecosystem activity indicators (daily active addresses, DEX trading volume) decline for two consecutive months, indicating weakening demand migration logic, proactively reduce weight.
Execution details: how to rebalance without losses
Use stablecoins as a buffer: do not directly sell asset A to buy asset B; first sell over-allocated assets to stablecoins, then buy under-allocated assets in batches to avoid mistiming
Batch execution: split a single rebalance into 2–3 trades over 3–5 trading days to avoid extreme intraday spikes
Control transaction costs: prioritize operations during periods of best liquidity, pay attention to Gas costs for on-chain transfers, small adjustments can be deferred to the next routine check
Record keeping: document the trigger reason (threshold/time/event) and price at each rebalance to facilitate rule effectiveness review.
#SOL延续涨势，资金与链上需求共振 #Strategy wants to change the dividend payment of the four preferred stocks ($STRF, $STRC, $STRK, $STRD) to be accumulated by calendar days, including weekends and holidays, and paid on the next trading day.
On the surface, this is a technical adjustment to the payment frequency, but in essence, it targets "price stability and liquidity":
Dividends accumulated daily effectively turn preferred stocks into cash flow instruments similar to currency, so holders don't have to wait until the end of the quarter to settle, and the pricing anchor in the secondary market will be tighter.
For the #Strategy model, preferred stocks are financing tools for buying Bitcoin; the lower the financing cost and the more stable the price, the larger the BTC position that can be leveraged.
Therefore, this is not a financial detail but a link in the leverage chain—of course, the plan still awaits shareholder voting on October 28.#霍尔木兹重开现转机，油价风险溢价会降吗？ Quick Insight | Trump Rejects Iran's Seven-Day Ceasefire: A War Scheduled by the Election Calendar
Key Points: During the UN General Assembly, Iran proposed a seven-day ceasefire conditioned on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but Trump explicitly rejected it and informed aides that bombing would resume after the midterm elections in November. Behind this decision lies a blatant exchange of interests between U.S. domestic politics and the Middle East battlefield.
1. Iran's "Seven-Day Ceasefire": What Does the Proposal Look Like?
On September 25, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi revealed to the media at the UN General Assembly in New York that Iran had submitted a seven-day ceasefire proposal to the U.S. through intermediaries. The core content includes: halting all hostilities in the Middle East (including Lebanon) within seven days; the U.S. unfreezing about $12 billion of Iranian assets, lifting sanctions on Iranian oil and maritime blockades; reopening the Strait of Hormuz on the seventh day, followed immediately by comprehensive negotiations on Iran's nuclear program.
Araghchi clearly stated that it would be best to reach an agreement before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. This statement is no coincidence—the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused U.S. gasoline prices to soar, and this unpopular war has become a significant drag on the Republican Party's election prospects.
2. Trump's Response: Rejection and Plans to "Settle the Score" After the Election
According to The Wall Street Journal citing U.S. officials, Trump has rejected Iran's seven-day ceasefire proposal and told aides he expects to resume bombing Iran after the November midterm elections.
This decision was not made on a whim. Reuters reported in early September that Trump's senior aides were trying to avoid escalating the war before the midterms to minimize the impact on Republican election prospects. A White House official bluntly said, "We are continuing to pressure Iran, but the November election is the priority."
Meanwhile, there is a clear split within the White House regarding the war. The Washington Post reported that U.S. officials privately hope to end the war soon, contrasting with Trump's public tough stance. Vice President Pence and Secretary of State Rubio reportedly support maintaining relative "calm" before November.
3. How Election Politics "Hijacked" War Decisions?
The rhythm of this war is being precisely "calibrated" by the U.S. domestic political calendar.
Polling data reveals the reason. An August late Reuters/Ipsos poll showed only 31% of Americans support the war, about 63% oppose it, with voters especially unhappy about high gasoline prices. Since the conflict began, Trump's approval rating has dropped from 40% to 33%.
Republicans are "fleeing" the war. As the midterms approach, more Republican candidates are distancing themselves from Trump's Iran policy. CNN reported this "flight" is occurring in many districts where Trump once led by large margins, with defections on the Iran war issue particularly notable. The Senate recently narrowly rejected a war powers resolution 49-50, with four Republicans defecting to support ending the war, highlighting deepening party divisions.
The election calendar and war tempo are highly synchronized. Analysts note that the timing of the Trump administration's handling of Iran has changed, with the midterm election schedule directly influencing Iran policy. An official said bluntly that the White House might consider increasing military strikes on Iran after the midterms.
4. The Dangerous "Time Bomb": What Does Post-Election Escalation Mean?
Deeply linking war decisions to the election cycle is creating a highly dangerous "time bomb."
On one hand, military resources continue to be consumed during the "tactical pause." Sources reveal that the so-called restraint strategy partly aims to give the U.S. military time to replenish severely depleted ammunition stocks. The military has exhausted most of its high-precision long-range missile inventory, and top leaders of the Army, Navy, and Air Force warn that prolonging the war will be unsustainable.
On the other hand, Iran is using this "window period" to strengthen its bargaining chips. Analysts point out that after months of Iran continuously affecting Strait of Hormuz shipping without significant domestic unrest, Iranian leadership confidence has increased, and they are expected to continue attacking U.S. and allied targets. Whether the Trump administration wants it or not, it will face retaliatory pressure, potentially leading to a spiral escalation.
The greater risk is that Trump himself threatened to "annihilate Iran" in his UN speech and hinted at possibly striking Iran's Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility. Some analysts even warn that Trump might be close to "breaking the nuclear taboo," considering using nuclear weapons against Iran to end this unpopular war.
When the start, pause, and escalation of a war depend not on battlefield conditions or diplomatic negotiations but on dates on the election calendar—that itself is the greatest irony of the concept of "national security decision-making."
Iran's seven-day ceasefire proposal is essentially an opportunity window to exchange economic concessions for strategic breathing room. Trump chose to reject it, not because the proposal was inadequate, but because the timing was wrong. After November 3, "everything can be negotiated"—or "everything can be bombed."
But Tehran may not follow Washington's script. This war scheduled by the election calendar may ultimately spiral out of control in an unpredictable way before the votes are even counted. $BTC $ETH $CL #创作者激励 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 9.26｜BTC and ETH Early Session Thoughts
Today's trading idea is very clear: thin liquidity over the weekend, mainly short at high levels, no chasing longs without incremental positive news.
$BTC is currently consolidating around 84,000. After pushing up to 87,300 this week, it has continuously pulled back. The quarterly options expiry on Friday (about $14 billion in Bitcoin contracts) didn't break the market. The low held around 83,100, but the price just can't surpass 85,000-85,300. The issue isn't the candlestick itself, but the 10-year US Treasury yield approaching 5.2% and the 30-year hitting a new high since 2004, putting a lid on risk assets. Options positions have just been unwound, and with thin weekend liquidity, any short sellers sweeping liquidity could easily trigger a drop.
$ETH is around 2,690 now, moving basically in sync with BTC, repeatedly pushed back near 2,740.
The real weekend variable isn't macro data, but thin markets plus high US Treasury yields hanging overhead. Before liquidity returns on Monday, anyone chasing highs is likely to get hit. If the Asian session can't push past 85,000, BTC could retest 83,100 or even see 82,000.
Current trading plan:
BTC: Short between 84,800-85,800, target near 83,100-82,000
ETH: Short between 2,730-2,780, target near 2,660-2,580
If BTC breaks out with volume above 87,300, all shorts are invalidated; never stubbornly hold against the trend.
What do you think about this weekend's move? Will BTC first drop to 82,000 or directly break through 85,800? $GRASS surged 38% in two days, and this K-line doesn't look like an emotional impulse.
Starting from the afternoon of September 25, GRASS has been increasing volume every hour — starting at 0.50, by 20:00 that evening the hourly candle shot up +6.3% to 0.552, with trading volume three times that of the previous day. The 24h trading volume reached 37 million USD, which is solid for the AI+meme sector.
GRASS is the node token of Neural Internet, essentially a DePIN project — users contribute bandwidth and IP, and the protocol rewards tokens. The sector logic hasn't changed: as long as there is demand for AI training data, the low-cost data source logic of DePIN remains. Recently, the AI sector has warmed up overall, with $WLD and $FET both moving. GRASS, as a relatively liquid token in this sector, being rotated into by capital is not surprising.
But there is a problem here: I haven't seen a significant increase in GRASS contract holdings. The daily MACD golden cross has appeared, but that's more of a short-term signal. Whether the fundamental narrative can support this price increase is the key to holding on.
What do you think about $GRASS this time — is it sector rotation, or is there a substantial catalyst behind it?Money has come in, coins have been withdrawn, so why hasn't $BTC taken off yet?
In the past six trading days, the net subscription for the US spot Bitcoin ETF has exceeded $2.8 billion. On the other hand, Binance saw over 13,800 BTC withdrawn in one day, setting the largest single-day outflow record since 2023.
On the surface, this looks like a double positive: "institutional buying + fewer exchange-held coins." But the price hasn't cooperated: BTC remains around $84,400, about 3.4% below the September 21 high of $87,392.
Where is the misconception?
Net inflow to ETFs is real new demand; exchange outflows just mean assets have changed custody locations and cannot automatically be equated with market purchases. Withdrawals do not equal buying, nor do they mean an immediate breakout.
What the data shows now is that the potential sellable supply is decreasing, and spot demand remains. But this is not enough to declare a "breakout confirmation." What really matters is not how much BTC flows out again, but whether the price can reclaim the $86,700–$87,400 range.
If ETFs continue to attract funds and BTC recovers this range, then the capital structure can be confirmed by the price; if money keeps coming in but the price still can't break through, then the supply pressure at high levels needs to be reassessed.
In short: the bullish factors are real, but the market hasn't concluded yet. BTC doesn't lack stories; it's stuck at the "price confirmation" stage. #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ Lately, I've been a bit off in my market focus. I used to keep my eyes on $BTC all the time, but today I actually think $CL crude oil is more worth watching.
There's an interesting development on the US-Iran front: Iran has proposed that if the US reduces military pressure and lifts the blockade, the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within 7 days; the market has already started pricing in this expectation. $WTI has fallen from nearly $96 a few days ago down to around $92 on Friday. But on the other hand, the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia mean supply risks haven't truly disappeared.
This is actually very critical for BTC.
If oil continues to fall, the market's worries about "energy shock → inflation → higher interest rates" will ease a bit, and risk assets will naturally feel more comfortable; but if the Strait of Hormuz runs into trouble again and oil prices get pushed back up, high-volatility assets like BTC will likely face another round of pressure.
BTC dropped from around 87,200 to about 82,900 a few days ago, then recovered yesterday, and is still hovering around 84,000. At this level, going long or short is easy to get slapped.
I've now set a very simple observation for myself: first see if CL can continue to hold down, then see if BTC can stabilize above 84,000.
If oil falls and BTC holds steady, risk appetite can be said to have truly returned; if oil suddenly rallies again while BTC is still grinding near 84,000, I'd rather trade less than take positions to bet on the next piece of news.
My biggest takeaway these days is: when trading news, don't just look at the headlines; see if the headlines actually move the price. #US Treasury long-term yields continue to rise, financing pressure heats up
US Treasury yields are skyrocketing, should BTC really be cautious this time?
Don't get distracted by the small ups and downs in the crypto market; the real big money is now focused on US Treasuries.
The 10-year yield once surged to 5.2%, the 30-year yield is approaching 5.46%, hitting a 22-year high; the US 30-year mortgage rate also surged to 7.45%.
What does this mean? Dollar funding is getting more expensive.
The Fed's rate hike expectations haven't disappeared, the government keeps issuing debt, and companies are competing for funds, so it's not easy for long-term yields to drop quickly.
Here’s the problem: with risk-free returns over 5%, why would institutions take bigger risks chasing BTC or ETH?
With high interest rates persisting, real estate, corporate financing, stock and crypto asset valuations will all be under pressure. If liquidity continues to tighten, the crypto market will find it hard to stay unaffected.
So I'm not in a hurry to go heavy now. You can miss the market, but there's no need to hand over your principal just to try to catch the bottom. When the US Treasury yield curve relaxes, that might be the real key to whether the next round of risk assets perform well.
$BTC $ETH 【Pre-market Must-Read #4｜09-26】
Market breadth 1.86, temperature is spring.
There aren't many opportunities, I'm picking selectively.
Today I scanned 200 coins. Only 15 passed the gate.
Temperature is spring, BTC weekly is still bullish, breadth 1.86.
Here are the 5 coins with the highest probability (the main score is on another list, for midday breakdown):
AAPL｜Probability 81.8｜Main score 73｜🅱️ wait for pullback｜Entry 331.0｜Distance from 26-week high +1.0%
BNB｜Probability 73.4｜Main score 59｜🅾️ wait for breakout｜Entry 781.9｜Distance from 26-week high +0.6%
POL｜Probability 72.2｜Main score -｜🚀 chase on the spot｜Entry 0.117｜Distance from 26-week high +9.6%
LIT｜Probability 71.4｜Main score 58｜🚀 chase on the spot｜Entry 4.855｜Distance from 26-week high +9.7%
ETHFI｜Probability 70.3｜Main score 64｜🚀 chase on the spot｜Entry 0.7195｜Distance from 26-week high +8.2%
Entry points are given by the system, verified one by one afterward.
Stop loss is a matter of position management — will break down separately next time.
Who to break down tomorrow? USELESS, RAY, ZEC — comment the name, the one with the most votes.
(Parameters and weights are not disclosed, not investment advice.)#霍尔木兹重开现转机, will oil price risk premiums decrease? The US and Iran are in close talks in New York about a phased ceasefire, and the Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen, causing oil prices to fall accordingly. As of now, $BZ (Brent) is at about $97.67, $CL (WTI) at about $92.69, and supply risks have not been fully resolved. 👉🏻 Short-term impact: Negotiation news directly dampened panic, with both major crude oil markets showing significant corrections on Friday. BZ and CL are under pressure simultaneously, with short-term volatility likely to increase, and the market is first digesting 👉🏻 expectations of "possible cooling." Long-term impact: Even if the strait reopening and blockade are lifted, shipping recovery and inventory replenishment will take time. The Houthis' attacks on Saudi facilities continue, and the tight physical supply has not immediately disappeared. Similar agreements have collapsed before, so before a full recovery, oil prices are unlikely to crash sharply, and there will be support in the medium term. 👉🏻 Overall judgment: Undoubtedly, the overall trend is bearish 📉. Negotiation expectations are short fuel, which will put greater short-term downward pressure on oil prices; But supply risks have not been fully cleared, so declines will be limited, and the tug-of-war between bulls and bears will continue. 👉🏻 Beginner's Advice: Don't just short because of good negotiation news, or buy the dip every time it drops. Geopolitical news comes quickly and leaves quickly. Combine real-time quotes, inventory data, and actual shipping traffic—don't let single news sway the pace. 👉🏻 Is now a good time to enter: Currently, blindly short or bottom-fishing is not recommended. Although prices have retreated from their highs, volatility remains high, and they are waiting for substantial progress or supply in negotiations[9/26 Crypto Morning Post · Leverage Cleansing Perspective] It's not a "positive catalyst," but a "bull deleveraging day." 🌐 Macroeconomic valuation pressure: tariffs, inflation, and rate cut expectations tug back and forth. → Risk assets hit valuations first, turning BTC from "leader in risk assets" to "macro sentiment thermometer." Goldman Sachs traders called Monday's flash crash a leading signal: it's not the crypto world's own issue, but the entire risk appetite is slowing down. ₿ Mainstream Coins: BTC Defends Moving Average, ETH Worse - BTC: Fluctuating near 109,000, 110,000 is a psychological level, below the 200-day moving average is "not fun" - ETH: After falling below 4000, the technical bear market narrative begins, institutional inflows cool, and Treasury companies' cost lines are being tested - SOL / AVAX / DOGE: 7-day decline is even worse than ETH, SOL -21%, DOGE -19% → This round is not a "coin drop," but a "high-β wipe out." 💥 Liquidation: Bullish sacrifice 24-hour liquidations ~26–290,000 people, amount 880–1.2 billion dollars; ETH, SOL, XPL lead the list, Hyperliquid has recorded the largest single ETH liquidation. Conclusion: Leveraged bulls are being washed down, and short positions actually get little profit. 🏛 Regulators: China has also included RWA Latest multi-departmental approach targeting "real-world asset tokenization" and Chinese-funded overseas services: - Domestic RWA issuance/intermediary/IT services ≈ illegal financial activities