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Exchanges officially delisting $CORE due to this vulnerability incident:
KuCoin Exchange: Suspended CORE deposits and trading pairs
Phemex: Delisted CORE/USDT spot trading pair and suspended deposits and withdrawals.
TEBBIT Exchange: Delisted CORE
CoinEx Exchange: Delisted CORE
okx Exchange: Delisted on-chain earning
Exchanges suspending services due to the emergency
In early September 2026, Core DAO conducted an emergency hard fork due to the vulnerability, and multiple exchanges temporarily restricted deposits and withdrawals:
okx: Suspended sending and receiving on the Core network
· Coinbase: Suspended sending and receiving on the Core network.
· Bithumb, Coinone: Suspended deposits and withdrawals.
· Bitget: Suspended deposits and withdrawals citing wallet maintenance.
· LBank: Suspended deposits. In August, non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 56,000, with the actual figure nearly three times the forecast. Previously, ADP data signaled weakening employment, but this strong reversal in non-farm payrolls directly overturned the market's earlier optimistic judgment.
The impressive employment data provides new support for Powell to keep the option of a rate hike in September, and funds have begun to reprice the Fed's future interest rate path. Short-term market volatility will noticeably intensify.
However, a single employment data point cannot ultimately determine monetary policy; subsequent inflation indicators will be the decisive factor, and the final market direction still requires further data verification. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $HYPE hasn't finished this wave yet, right? Honestly, I'm still a bit hopeful.
If BTC doesn't continue to push down, and HYPE can get back near 85.5—86, then there's a chance to test around 88 again. At least this rebound idea has some basis on the chart.
Conversely, if it breaks below around 83.2 and can't recover, this optimism needs to be discounted. Right now, the expectation for $HYPE is that it can hold relatively well and form a rebound; it's not yet time to blindly call for new highs.
I'm quite looking forward to $HYPE making a comeback. But if it loses the 83.2 area and can't recover for a long time, then this optimism needs to be reconsidered; you can't just rely on wishful holding.$BTC The big bearish candle on the 15-minute chart at 8:30 had a trading volume of 1.445 billion U, with a volatility of 2.38%.
$ETH Similarly, for ETH on the 15-minute chart at 8:30, the trading volume was directly 1.538 billion U, with a volatility of 3.79%.
This wick went straight down to the bottom with a very short lower shadow. At that time, I thought it might continue to drift down, so I didn’t take a long position, and later I found out I was right!!!
I had placed an order at 1380 but didn’t get filled; I can only say I was too cautious.
Afterwards, the CPI will also be released, which is another key variable for whether there will be a rate hike in September. We will see later, but tonight’s nonfarm payrolls already exploded, and rate hike bets are heating up! #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温
#CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 🚨 Why did US stocks, bonds, gold, silver, Bitcoin and Ethereum suddenly pump at the same time?
It’s not random — the Fed just gave the market a reason to breathe.
The probability of a rate hike at the September 16 Fed meeting dropped from nearly 70% yesterday to just over 50%.
So what changed?
Fed Governor Chris Waller basically sent a more dovish message.#WesternUnionStablecoin #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC HOOD at $122, do you dare to buy in?
First, look at the surface: normal digestion after a massive bullish candle.
Yesterday, the spot price surged 16.57% in a single day, with a trading volume exceeding 51 million shares. The intraday high was 124.88, and after touching 126 on perpetual contracts, it pulled back. Today it retraced to around 122, narrowing the 24-hour gain to about 11%. But from the March low of 64 to now, it has nearly doubled. All moving averages are in a bullish alignment, the mid-term trend is clearly upward, but RSI is already overbought, so short-term digestion is needed.
First point: Wall Street is collectively bullish, but this is not the same as 2021.
Morgan Stanley upgraded to Overweight with a target of 150; Piper Sandler target 145; Scotiabank initiated coverage with a Buy rating and target 136; Deutsche Bank specifically emphasized that the prediction market is the next breakout point.
Sounds like the 2021 ARK hype around Coinbase? Look closely—this time they are not betting on retail investors to catch the falling knife, but on enterprise-level KPI contracts, with the market size expected to exceed $1 trillion by 2028.
Second point: fundamentals are solid beyond criticism.
Q2 data:
Revenue $1.31 billion, +32% YoY
EPS 0.62, +48% YoY, beating expectations
Platform assets $369 billion
Gold subscription users 4.8 million, +39% YoY
Net inflow of $75 billion over the past 12 months, annualized growth 25-28%
13 business lines with annualized revenue over $100 million—from crypto trading to prediction markets, from credit cards to tokenized stocks. It’s no longer the Robinhood that relied solely on retail options commissions.
Third point: macro cooling, short-term sentiment dampened.
Today’s August nonfarm payrolls at 162,000 far exceeded the expected 56,000, with labor participation rate rising. Fed funds futures show the probability of a September FOMC rate hike jumped from 55% to 62%.
What does this mean for HOOD?
High-valuation growth stocks face short-term pressure
But rate hikes also benefit net interest income (the company has plenty of client funds earning interest)
Overall, the market shifts from a "rate cut party" to "data-dependent volatility"
September 9 Goldman Sachs conference, September 10 monthly operating data, next week CPI/PPI—intense event window, volatility will only increase.
Resistance above: 124.7-125 → 130-135 → 145-150 (analyst target zones)
Support below: 120 (psychological level) → 113-116 (previous platform + moving averages) → 105-110 (demand zone)
Bull vs. bear, you decide.
On one side:
Wall Street collectively raising target prices, highest at 150
Prediction market revenue expected to grow 10x, enterprise KPI contracts are the next trillion-dollar market
Robinhood Chain DEX trading volume 34.6 billion in two months, on-chain ecosystem exploding
Q2 revenue +32%, EPS +48%, successful transformation
Technicals bullish alignment, volume breakout effective
On the other side:
From 64 to 124, nearly doubled, huge profit-taking pressure
RSI overbought, short-term pullback needed
Rising rate hike expectations, pressure on high-valuation stocks
PE 45-55x not cheap, even the best story is partly priced in
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Light long positions at 122-120, stop loss below 118. Target first to retest 125, then breakout to 130-135.
Swing traders:
Wait for a stable rebound in the 116-113 area (confirmed by lower shadow or volume bullish candle) before entering, target 125-135, stop loss below 110.
With next week’s CPI/PPI data coming, it’s recommended to reduce leverage or set stop-loss orders before the data.
If it breaks below 113 with volume, the bullish thesis weakens, exit and wait.
This HOOD rally is essentially the same as Coinbase in 2020 and MicroStrategy in 2023—
The market finally realizes: "Oh, it’s not the company I thought it was."
When analysts collectively raise target prices, it’s often not the end of the rally but the start of market repricing.
At 122, do you dare to get on board?
This retracement, do you think it’s a dip to buy or a trend reversal?
$HOOD $UNI $ARB #HOOD收涨创年内新高，链上收入居公链第一 The broad surge in memory chip stocks this time is mainly fueled by strong industry fundamentals and better-than-expected macroeconomic data.
Specifically, there are several key driving factors behind this:
Strong industry fundamentals: According to CFM data, the global DRAM market size reached $147.024 billion in Q2 2026, a quarter-on-quarter surge of 55.9%, hitting a record high. Driven by AI server demand, manufacturers have achieved "growth in both volume and price." Meanwhile, Kioxia executives stated that "NAND Flash demand is growing at an unprecedented speed" and announced plans for factory construction and capacity expansion; Micron also warned that NAND and DRAM supply tightness will persist beyond 2027.
Better-than-expected macro data: Data released on September 4 showed that U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, far exceeding expectations. Strong employment data reinforced expectations of an economic "soft landing," boosting market risk appetite. After the data release, market bets on a Fed rate hike in September rose from 49.4% to 60.2%.
Market sentiment and sector effect: Stimulated by positive macro factors, capital flowed heavily into the semiconductor sector. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 3.35%. Notably, SanDisk had no specific company news that day; its 8% gain was largely driven by the overall sector strength.
This surge is a resonance of strong industry fundamentals (AI demand, supply tightness) and better-than-expected macroeconomic data, jointly igniting market enthusiasm for going long on memory chip stocks. BTC returns to $80,000, the real signal is not the rise, but the start of capital diffusion
An important change is happening in the crypto market:
This rebound is no longer just BTC pulling up alone; capital is beginning to spread to ETH and high-elasticity altcoins.
BTC has climbed back above $80,000, reaching around $82,000 intraday, with a 24-hour increase of over 5%; ETH simultaneously broke through $2,500, and the total market capitalization is approaching $2.8 trillion again.
This means market sentiment is shifting from "risk aversion and waiting" to "seeking returns."
Historically, in bull markets, not all coins rise simultaneously, but rather:
Phase one: BTC absorbs liquidity and confirms market direction;
Phase two: ETH catches up, capital seeks higher returns;
Phase three: altcoins and narrative sectors begin to diffuse.
The market is currently attempting to enter phase two.
However, the biggest short-term variable remains tonight's non-farm payrolls.
If employment data cools down, the market will reprice rate cut expectations, and capital may continue flowing into risk assets;
If employment remains strong, Fed rate hike expectations will intensify, and the recently restored risk appetite may be suppressed again.
So the most important thing now is not chasing the rally, but observing:
Whether BTC can hold $80,000 and whether ETH can stabilize above $2,500.
Breakouts require capital confirmation, and the market needs time to ferment.
The real big move is not how much it rises in one day, but whether capital begins to form sustained rotation. $BTC #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 #特斯拉股价走强，无人出租车成焦点
The boss has something to say
The Bank of Japan is going to raise interest rates. Bloomberg, citing insiders, said the September 18 meeting is inclined to raise rates by 25 basis points, increasing the policy rate from 1% to 1.25%.
The yen has strengthened from 160.39 to around 155 within a week. JPMorgan warned that if it breaks below 155, about $102.6 billion in yen shorts may be forced to cover, further amplifying yen appreciation.
Yen strengthens, dollar weakens, US Treasury yields rise. The unwinding of carry trades means global liquidity is tightening, generally bearish for risk assets. Bitcoin fell below 80,000 tonight, directly related to this background.
Profits from two short positions at 81,000 have been secured.. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on positions. Good luck.162,000 Nonfarm Payrolls Wake Up the Market: Rate Cut Trades Fade, BTC's Next Card Is Only CPI
August Nonfarm Payrolls Gave the Market a Lesson
New jobs added: 162,000, while market expectations were only about 55,000, nearly 3 times the forecast; meanwhile, June and July employment data were revised upward by a total of 55,000, directly breaking the market's previous logic of "rapid deterioration in US employment."
What really deserves attention is the capital reaction after the data release
US Treasury yields rose rapidly, with the 10-year yield once approaching 4.82%, the US dollar strengthened, and gold sharply retreated. The interest rate market raised September rate hike expectations again, with CME data showing the probability of a rate hike rising from about 50% to over 60%.
But this does not mean the bull market is over
The core of this decline is not capital withdrawal, but the market restarting trading:
High interest rates will last longer.
Previously, BTC's rise was largely driven by short covering after more dovish comments from Waller, rather than purely spot buying. After strong nonfarm data, interest rate pressure has returned to the forefront.
The real decisive point now is the September CPI.
If inflation continues to cool, rate hike expectations may quickly fall, giving BTC a chance to challenge above $80,000 again;
If CPI again exceeds expectations, the high interest rate logic will be reinforced, and the $80,000 support will face greater tests.
Nonfarm payrolls are just the first round of confrontation; CPI is the final judge.
The direction hasn't changed, but the market is repricing the rhythm of this rally. $BTC #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 $BTC $ETH Nonfarm payrolls exploded to 162,000, much higher than expected. Is the rate cut dream really shattered?
US August nonfarm payrolls recorded 162,000, far exceeding the expected 56,000 and the previous 21,000; unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%. Upon release, gold and silver came under pressure, and mainstream currencies like BTC and ETH all plunged waterfall-style.
The probability of a rate hike dropped sharply from nearly 70% to an even split. Fed Governor Waller personally "dove": if inflation continues to cool, he tends to hold steady in September.
Steel Brother's view is clear: strong nonfarm ≠ necessarily a rate hike. Waller's condition is "watch inflation," while nonfarm reflects employment resilience; the two are not contradictory. The market is truly pricing in that the Fed won't rashly act amid data divergence. The ultimate judge is the CPI on September 11.
For the crypto market: short-term decline is normal, but the big picture remains unchanged. After $460 million in short liquidations, bullish sentiment has just been ignited. Players are closely defending highs and lows before the CPI, so don't be led by the data's nose. #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ $SNDK $ZEC ZEC rising to 1000 is because ETFs have packaged privacy coins as compliant assets; buyers don't really care about the privacy features, they just need a “new story” to hedge Bitcoin risk.
UNI is rising due to a surge in RWA trading volume, but the protocol's fee buyback and burn speed can never keep up with the market sentiment cooling off.
SOL rising from 70 to 110 is because institutions are FOMO chasing highs; once macro data turns bad, it will be the first to get liquidated.
BTC rising from 60,000 to 80,000 does have ETF money coming in, but once rate hike expectations tighten, it fell back from 81,500 to 76,000.
The script hasn't changed: more money means prices go up, less money means prices go down. This round just swapped in a batch of “more prestigious” actors. 😏$BTC $ETH #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 #Polymarket plans to raise $1 billion, valued at $21 billion
The prediction market folks have directly pushed the valuation to $21 billion.
A prediction market that was under regulatory scrutiny just a few years ago is now being fought over by Wall Street and the Trump family simultaneously. From $9 billion to $21 billion, it nearly increased by 1.4 times in one year. This story is very familiar in the crypto world—a project suppressed by regulators for years suddenly becomes a hot commodity in a funding round, with its valuation skyrocketing.
What does it mean that little Donald is personally involved? It means political capital and crypto capital are converging; this is not just a financial investment, but a strategic positioning. Prediction markets essentially turn real-world events into tradable assets. Whoever controls the rules and liquidity of the prediction market holds the power to price events.
Polymarket's valuation has confirmed a logic—it's possible to achieve annual revenues in the billions of dollars and a valuation over $20 billion without issuing tokens. What truly holds value is not issuing tokens, but the business itself that generates cash flow.
For the crypto world, Polymarket's fundraising is not directly related to the price of $BTC, but the direction it points to is very clear—the commercial value of compliant crypto infrastructure is being re-evaluated by traditional capital. When a non-token-issuing prediction market platform can achieve annual revenues in the billions and a valuation over $20 billion, projects still relying on storytelling to raise funds need to rethink their business models.
What do you think? $BTC 1.9 million, tokenized stocks are accelerating into mainstream financial markets.
The number of on-chain tokenized equity holders has reached a record 1.9 million, a month-on-month increase of 134%, and a year-to-date surge of 1360%.
What truly deserves attention is not just this number, but the acceleration of traditional assets entering the blockchain.
Platforms like Robinhood Chain continue to promote stock tokenization, with on-chain trading activity significantly increasing; 24-hour DEX trading volume once reached $1.89 billion.
Meanwhile, institutional funds are also beginning to genuinely enter the market.
Standard Chartered Bank has launched BTC and ETH spot trading for institutional clients in the UAE; HashKey has joined the DTCC tokenized assets working group, further deepening the connection between traditional finance and blockchain.
This means the logic of RWA is changing.
In the past, the market speculated on the concept of "assets going on-chain," but now it is entering the stage of "financial infrastructure going on-chain."
$BTC is responsible for attracting institutional funds, $ETH carries on-chain finance, and RWA brings traditional assets like stocks and bonds onto the blockchain.
If this trend continues, the next truly noteworthy focus may not be a single RWA token, but the value re-evaluation of the entire on-chain financial infrastructure.
Of course, a surge in trading volume does not necessarily mean the related tokens will rise; after short-term overheating of funds, the risk of a pullback cannot be ignored either. #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ The waves of Honghu Lake roll on, each generation stronger than the last. Among coins, there are even stronger players; I've positioned in three coins, two are profiting, one is hanging on the tree, but do I accept that? I don't accept it!
$MUBARAK short position opened at 0.031999, now at 0.02934
$FIL short position opened at 0.8096, now at 0.772,
As for $ZEC, entered short at 868.79, brutally pulled up to 977.63, hanging on the tree. Still holding the BTC short position, floating profit is expanding. Three coins: two green, one red.
How absurd is this ZEC rally?
From 450 straight up to 970, doubling in just two weeks. On September 4th, Zcash price hit an intraday high of $970, an 8-year high. ZEC rose over 60% in the past 7 days, and over 1800% in the past year. The reason behind this is the team fixing the Orchard shielded pool supply vulnerability, plus Grayscale's Zcash ETF starting trading on the NYSE. But the core driver is a short squeeze—over the past 12 hours, ZEC's entire network liquidations exceeded $68 million, with short liquidations over $66 million, shorts being squeezed out causing the rebound.
MUBARAK and FIL are very stable here.
MUBARAK fell steadily from around 0.032, profit-taking continues, short position floating profits keep expanding. FIL violently surged from 0.65 to 0.80, then the 200-day moving average at 0.81 capped it, profit-taking piled up, a pullback is inevitable.
This ZEC monster, I'll wait for it to retrace; I don't believe 970 can hold. Floating loss, I can endure!
Brothers, what do you think about this move?
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 Getting ready to rock n' roll.
Almost zero chance Fed hikes in Sept.
Soft payrolls tomorrow and we see cut before yr end.
Cpi at 2 or 3 irrelevant.
Usd/yen move epic top with long way to drop.
US short rates lower support btc break up.
85k break gets us to 100k pronto.
$BTC
$SOL
$DOGE Cybercab发布会内容不及预期，特斯拉盘中大跌超6% 9月4日，特斯拉盘中最大跌幅达6.3%，直接原因是周四晚间备受期待的Cybercab发布会内容远不及华尔街预期。发布会前股价曾上涨5.4%，市场原本希望一场强劲的发布能为股价注入新动能，但结果落空引发明显抛压。 据行情数据，特斯拉股价在周四盘中一度下跌至6.3%的跌幅，波动幅度显著放大。此前在活动开始前，特斯拉股价曾上涨5.4%，显示市场对这场发布会寄予厚望。多位分析师在活动前表示，一场内容充实、路径清晰的发布会，可能扭转该股此前的上行动能，甚至成为新一轮上涨的催化剂。然而发布会实际内容被认为远不如华尔街所期望的那样充实，缺乏足够细节和超预期亮点，导致资金选择兑现离场。这场发布会之所以分量极重，是因为特斯拉已将公司的未来押注于向物理AI领域的转型，核心包括自动驾驶和机器人技术。Cybercab作为其无人驾驶出租车战略的关键载体，承载着市场对特斯拉从汽车制造商向AI与机器人公司估值切换的期待。当前特斯拉的估值中包含大量对未来自动驾驶和机器人业务的预期，一旦这一叙事的进展不及预期，估值压力会迅速反映在股价上。6.3%的单日跌幅表明，Nonfarm payrolls completely explode! 162,000 crush expectations, recession fears slapped awake
Holding tightly to the US August nonfarm payroll data release, the entire market was shocked.
162,000, while the market expected only 55,000: this is not just beating expectations, it directly breaks through all forecast ceilings.
What really made me gasp was the big reversal in the previous two months' data:
July flipped from -23,000 directly to +21,000, June was revised up from 20,000 to 31,000, gaining a total of 55,000 jobs in three months for free. Last month the whole market panicked "recession is coming," but last night this data set left them lost.
The market is repricing, with September rate hike expectations sharply rising:
But here is a contradiction—rising rate hike expectations = stronger dollar = pressure on risk assets, which is opposite to last night’s $BTC breaking $81K.
My interpretation is: last night’s rally was an emotional release after recession expectations were disproved, not driven by rate hike expectations. The real test is next week’s CPI—if inflation sticks above 3%, that will be the true stress test for risk assets.
Short term, I remain optimistic about the rebound, but don’t chase the highs; wait for a pullback to buy in. Layoffs in the information industry are the hidden risk to watch over the next 6 to 12 months—once AI replacement becomes a trend, consumption will be slowly eroded, and then strong employment won’t be enough to support it.
💸 Money-losing people remind yourselves: the best data is the most dangerous time, because everyone forgets the risks amid the cheers.
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 Surging to $1025: The real fire of $ZEC is in the ecosystem.
Recently, $ZEC's rally is forming a rare resonance.
On-chain data shows that "BTC OG whale" Garrett shorted about 32,760 ZEC at an average price of $444. Now the price is approaching $1025, with an unrealized loss of about $19.03 million.
Although his BTC long position has an unrealized profit of $5.38 million, it still cannot cover the loss from the ZEC short.
Such a huge contrarian short position may become fuel for a short squeeze as the price continues to rise.
The funding side is also heating up: ZEC has returned to the top five in 24-hour trading volume on Hyperliquid.
In the lending market, the bear market re-borrow rate has risen to 65.1%, and the proportion of ZEC collateral from high-net-worth users has increased to 24.2%, indicating holders prefer to collateralize rather than sell at low prices #AugPayrollsBeat #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC Hormuz Strait just reopened and was bombed again, Saudi exports hit a 9-year low, oil prices stubbornly holding above $90
Brent at $95, WTI at $91, consolidating at high levels.
Three bullish cards: Saudi exports dropped to 3 million barrels/day, the lowest since 2017; US military directly attacked Iranian oil tankers, geopolitical risk premium continues to accumulate; IEA estimates a global supply deficit of 1.8 million barrels/day in Q3.
Bears also have cards: Hormuz passage is recovering, US military escorts about 18 million barrels per day; OPEC+ is still increasing production, with a daily increase of 188,000 barrels in September.
My judgment: Oil prices will fluctuate at high levels in the short term, repeatedly testing the 95-100 range. The geopolitical premium is not over, but once the situation eases, it will quickly retreat.
For BTC, oil price rise → inflation heats up → rate hike expectations strengthen → risk assets under pressure, the transmission chain is intact. To go long on crude oil, watch Hormuz; to go long on $BTC, watch CPI.
$BZ $CL
#原油供应扰动反复，油价高位波动
Do you think oil prices can break 100?On Thursday, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a substantial net inflow of $731 million, fully offsetting the $236 million outflow on Tuesday, marking the highest single-day capital inflow since January this year. Driven by this, the total net assets of Bitcoin ETFs surpassed $103.34 billion, accounting for over 6% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization, with cumulative net inflows reaching $55.44 billion since the product launch.
However, the strong buying momentum quickly reversed. The August nonfarm payroll data significantly exceeded market expectations, causing the market to close with a large bearish candlestick. The data reflected robust employment resilience in the U.S. economy, leading the market to delay expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, postponing liquidity easing expectations and dampening the current rebound.
The combination of these two signals fully reflects the fragmented state of market chip competition. The massive ETF capital fluctuations exhibit clear short-term trading characteristics; whether the previous large outflows or the record inflows this time, the main channel for capital movement has been BlackRock IBIT. The rapid reversal of capital flow within just four trading days likely indicates that leading trading institutions or large hedge funds are quickly adjusting large positions. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Today’s NFP could heavily impact $BTC and $ETH. Three scenarios: 1) Above 100K: bearish for crypto, as a strong economy may keep the Fed hawkish. 2) 30K–80K: the market’s most expected range, likely causing limited volatility. 3) Negative again: potentially bullish, but only a much weaker-than-expected result could trigger a major rally. The biggest risk today isn’t weak NFP—it’s an unexpectedly strong number.#AugPayrollsBeat #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC $RE As soon as the non-farm payroll data came out tonight, the market was stunned—162,000 new jobs were added in August, far exceeding the expected 55,000, marking the highest since March, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. The resilience of the job market is tougher than anyone imagined.
Once the data was released, the previous expectations of a rate cut were immediately reversed, and the probability of a short-term Fed rate cut was directly knocked down. The US economy is clearly not weak enough to warrant a rate cut; the high interest rate cycle is very likely to continue. For us crypto traders, this is a solid bearish signal.
ETH reacted the fastest, plunging sharply right after the data release, with the market being heavily suppressed. Funds rushed to exit for safety, long positions in the futures market were collectively stopped out, causing intense short-term volatility. The market manipulators took advantage of this bearish wave to repeatedly spike prices, and those chasing longs probably got cleaned out again.
In the end, crypto assets are extremely sensitive to US dollar interest rates. Such strong employment means high rates will be maintained for a while longer, naturally suppressing the space for price rebounds. When this kind of macro bearish news hits, don’t rush to bottom-fish. Watch first, wait for the sentiment to digest and the direction to become clear before making a move. It’s much better than rushing in now and getting chopped up repeatedly.
$BTC $ETH A slap from the non-farm payrolls shatters the bull market dream
Waller hinted at a dovish stance, BTC surged to 81K, ETH retreated to 2530, everyone stood up shouting bull comeback.
Non-farm data released — 162,000, expected 58,000. A slap.
BTC crashed from 81,000 through 79,000, now oscillating around 77,000. $200 million liquidated in one hour, longs held $186 million. Those chasing highs during the day all got stopped out at the peak by night.
Stable employment = no rate cuts = keep enduring.
---$ETH
But the real issue isn’t the data, it’s what the market is betting on.
In the past month, all bulls have been betting on one logic: economic weakening → Fed forced to cut rates → liquidity flooding → BTC soaring. This narrative is very appealing, but it has a fatal flaw — it requires the economy to actually weaken.
And the non-farm payrolls tell you only one thing: the economy isn’t weak, employment is very stable.
When your trading logic is based on "economic recession" but reality is "economic strength," all long positions built on that logic have only one outcome — start over.
That’s why it only took an hour to drop from 81K to 77K. It’s not that the bears are too fierce, but the bulls’ foundation collapsed.
---#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
What’s the point of BTC to gold ratio hitting 18.17? Long-term resistance to fiat depreciation, short-term can’t withstand macro flips. 75K-78K is the last defense line; if it doesn’t hold, forget about the bull market.
The bull isn’t dead, but tonight it’s on life support.
Remember: news ignites, data fuels, but the ones who always get burned are the late buyers. The real big money always waits to pick up chips after others get liquidated.
---#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #August Nonfarm Payrolls at 162K Far Exceed Expectations, Rate Hike Bets Heat Up
Nonfarm payrolls are not a positive signal; expectations for a September rate cut have been dashed.
The market originally bet on weak employment, but August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs, nearly three times the expected 56,000, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%.
What this truly affects is not "whether the U.S. economy is good or not," but whether the Fed really needs to cut rates in September. After the data release, the probability of a September rate hike briefly rose to about 65%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to around 4.8%.
$BTC's reaction was also very direct: it quickly fell below $80K from above $81K, at one point approaching $79.5K during the session.
The issue is that BTC had already risen nearly 25% in August, with spot ETFs seeing a net inflow of about $3.52 billion that month; bulls had effectively priced in a round of easing expectations in advance.
Tonight marks an expectation adjustment: the stronger the nonfarm payrolls, the harder it is to argue the rate cut story, making it more difficult for BTC to break through $82K–$83K in the short term. What will truly decide the direction next is whether the CPI can reinterpret this "strong employment" as "non-inflationary."Nonfarm payrolls seriously exceeded expectations! Catering and computing power support employment, while AI actually eliminates IT positions
The just-released August US nonfarm payroll data was a huge surprise!
The market expected an increase of only 55,000 jobs, but the actual August US new jobs added were 162,000, reflecting that the job market is not just balanced but very hot. This has raised market expectations for interest rate hikes again.
But let's look at the specific sectors: the largest increase in August was surprisingly in the catering industry, with the food and beverage sector adding 59,000 jobs, whereas in the past 12 months this sector only added 12,000 jobs per month. After the World Cup, why did the catering industry suddenly increase? Could it be that Long restaurants have become popular in the US?
The second largest increase was in local government education, adding 42,000 jobs, possibly to prepare for the new school season by recruiting new education personnel. The third largest sector was construction, which is building the US computing power centers, adding 13,000 jobs. These three major sectors supported the largest new employment this month.
What about the sectors with significant decreases? It was programmers and the IT information industry, which decreased by 23,000 jobs. In other words, AI is currently booming, but the boom is in AI infrastructure, which instead has a substitutive effect on the information industry.
Overall, the US added 162,000 jobs, raising the three-month average employment from about 60,000 to 70,000, showing that the US job market is still very strong.
However, let's comfort everyone a bit: although after today's data release, we saw a widespread sell-off in major assets, gold dropped about $80, and US stocks also fell in pre-market trading, the concern is that this strong data might turn the US September rate hike expectation from no hike to a hike.
But I quote a statement from yesterday by Fed Governor Waller, who said the Fed is not so focused on US employment data now because there is no sign that the US job market is causing a wage-inflation spiral; these two are independent. That is, good employment has not led to inflation increases, and whether the Fed hikes rates now entirely depends on the inflation data on the 11th.
So today is a short-term, one-off negative factor. I believe after this negative impact, the market will refocus on the US inflation data next Friday.
This is also not very good news for our big A market next Monday, which may continue to be under pressure. Everyone must pay attention to risks.
The above is only a personal opinion and does not represent investment advice. Please be cautious of risks. Non-farm payroll data has been released, with the probability of a rate hike returning to 60%. The recent challenges are not yet over.
There are still two tail risks ahead, combined with the rising expectations of a rate hike in September. Once these risks erupt, they will not be friendly to risk assets.
Although I do not believe there will be a rate hike in September, before the September 15 monetary policy meeting, as the probability of a rate hike increases, the market will inevitably start pricing it in advance. Therefore, we need to consider other tail risks in an environment of tightening interest rates.
Rising probability of a September rate hike + yen rate hike = liquidity tightening caused by the narrowing US-Japan interest rate differential. Pay attention to whether the yen continues to appreciate and breaks below 155. Once it breaks below, be cautious of risk volatility caused by forced liquidations.
Rising probability of a September rate hike + international crude oil at $95 or even higher = crude oil raises future inflation expectations, further stimulating the probability and pricing of a September rate hike. Once the market locks in a September rate hike, it is very likely to increase the space for more subsequent rate hikes. You can refer to the current market expectations for the yen rate hike.
Of course, as I said before, the only factor that can currently save the market is the price of crude oil. If crude oil prices can quickly fall below 90 or even return to 85 in the next few days, market pressure will be greatly alleviated. #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 New jobs added: 162,000 (expected 55,000), July's "negative growth" revised to +21,000, labor market resilience exceeded expectations, September rate hike probability rose from 52% to 60%-73%. Under high interest rate expectations, funds flowed from risk assets to USD/US Treasuries, BTC briefly dropped from 81,000 to 79,200 USD. $BTC August non-farm payroll data far exceeded expectations (162,000 vs expected 56,000)
Completely reversed previous easing expectations
Triggered intense volatility in the crypto market:
$BTC plunged from 81,340 to 79,197. Over $200 million in liquidations occurred across the $BTC network within one hour, with long liquidations reaching as high as $186 million; total liquidations in the past 24 hours reached $768 million. U.S. Treasury yields surged sharply — the 10-year jumped to 4.792%, the 2-year soared to 4.406%, and the rise in risk-free rates suppressed valuations of zero-yield assets. The $80,000 level has now become an important psychological barrier.
$ETH at the 2,500 whole number mark dropped from 2,435, with a 3.12% decline within 15 minutes and a 3.73% amplitude. Order book data shows a buy-sell depth ratio of only 0.12, with sell orders heavily dominating; the top 5 sell orders total 13.56 $ETH while buy orders are only 1.65 $ETH. The 24-hour decline is about 3.5%. As the leading altcoin, ETH is highly sensitive to macro liquidity, and selling pressure is more pronounced when macro expectations reverse.
$SOL at 101. Previous dovish signals had driven a sharp rebound in SOL, but the stronger-than-expected non-farm data directly reversed easing expectations. Over a 7-day period, SOL and TRON have both fallen nearly 3%. On-chain data shows clear capital flow back from altcoins to Bitcoin. If subsequent non-farm/CPI data remain hot and rate hike pricing continues to rise, SOL will face further pressure. $ETH's violent surge yesterday made many think it was just a pump by retail traders, but it turned out to be institutional buyers openly scooping up, no bluffing.
BTC spot ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $731 million, with BlackRock's IBIT alone contributing $454 million; ETH spot ETF simultaneously attracted $141 million, with BlackRock's ETHA contributing $72.06 million. Together, these compliant buy orders totaling $872 million directly pushed BTC from 76,900 to 81,300 and ETH from 2,368 back up to 2,518. Those shorting altcoins probably suffered heavy losses.
This is not a sentiment game; it's a real flood of capital. IBIT's $454 million single-day inflow hit a near one-month high, indicating that traditional US funds are systematically positioning BTC as a base holding, not for short-term speculation. ETH has finally caught up, with ETHA inflows breaking the previous continuous net outflow trend, though still weaker than BTC, showing institutions remain cautious about Ethereum. Whales and mining companies are also increasing positions simultaneously; large holders like BitMine continue to accumulate, on-chain large address counts are rising, and selling pressure is fully absorbed.
In short, pricing power is now in the hands of institutions, and the stop-loss line for shorts is the acceleration of ETF inflows. However, if inflows slow down next, the market will naturally correct. Don't think that just because prices rose they won't fall; although retail traders are no longer front and center, volatility will still exist.$ETH massive buy orders crush shorts, institutions lead the rally with real capital, altcoin short sellers suffer total losses.
Yesterday's anticipated "dog pump" was actually institutions openly scooping up — Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a single-day net inflow of $731 million, with BlackRock's IBIT alone attracting $454 million; Ethereum spot ETFs simultaneously netted $141 million inflow, with BlackRock's ETHA contributing $72.06 million. The combined $872 million compliant buy orders directly hit the market, forcefully pushing BTC from 76,900 to 81,300 and ETH from 2,368 back up to 2,518.
This is not a sentiment game, but a flood of capital:
① IBIT's single-day inflow of $454 million marks a near one-month peak, indicating that traditional US funds are systematically incorporating BTC into their core holdings rather than engaging in short-term speculation.
② ETH finally keeps pace, with ETHA inflow of $72.06 million breaking the previous continuous net outflow trend, though still weaker than BTC; institutions remain cautious about Ethereum.
③ Whales and mining companies enter simultaneously, major holders like BitMine continue accumulating, on-chain data shows a slight rebound in addresses holding 1,000+ BTC, effectively absorbing selling pressure.
Institutions have fully taken over market pricing power; the stop-loss line for shorts is the acceleration of ETF inflows. If inflows slow down next, the market will naturally correct; Japanese listed company Remixpoint recently made a rather interesting adjustment.
The company sold off all its ETH, SOL, XRP, and DOGE holdings in one go, cashing out approximately ¥879 million and realizing a profit of about ¥118 million. After the sale, the company's crypto assets only consist of about 1,506 BTC, valued at roughly $115 million.
What’s more noteworthy is that in these transactions, ETH, SOL, and XRP were sold at a profit.
Only DOGE was sold at a loss, with a loss of about ¥3.26 million.
So this doesn’t necessarily mean "altcoins are no good."
It’s more like the corporate treasury is starting to make selective choices.
When asset allocation needs to consider risk, liquidity, and capital efficiency, BTC clearly becomes the option that remains.
This is also one of the biggest differences between corporate funds and retail funds.
Retail investors like to look for the next ten-bagger.
Corporations care more about:
Will this money still be safely on the books in a few years?
$BTC $ETH $SOL 3. Four warning signals triggering a downtrend (the more appear, the higher the probability of a pullback)
1. BTC repeatedly hits resistance above 82500 but fails to hold
2. BTC and ETH spot ETFs show net outflows for two consecutive days (signal of institutional withdrawal)
3. ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to decline, with Ethereum weakening relative to Bitcoin
4. US inflation data exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations heat up again, US Treasury yields rebound
4. Summary comparison of BTC and ETH downtrend rhythms
1. BTC: Long-term whales continuously accumulate coins providing bottom support; shallow pullbacks are the most likely scenario, deep crashes require macroeconomic negative factors to coincide; three defensive lines at 78000, 75000, and 72000 progressively.
2. ETH: No independent buying pressure, short-term whale selling pressure persists; similarly, during market pullbacks, ETH's retracement is usually greater than BTC's; the 2360 level is a short-term strength/weakness dividing line, and risk significantly increases if breached. 盘面有个瞬间，特别像暴风雨前的安静——BTC 在 81300 附近来回蹭，像一只刚跳过墙的猫，回头看看有没有人追上来。 你觉得今晚的非农数据，是会把它推回 78000 的坑里，还是直接顶破 83000 的天空？ 昨天从 77000 一路冲到 82300，价格是回来了，可总感觉哪里不对劲。真正的问题不是那根阳线有多长，而是 Waller 放完鸽声之后，抛售方收手太快，价格被卡在上周高点这个位置，像一颗还没落地的靴子。资金费率翻正了，追多的单子又开始堆起来，这种结构下，如果非农数据偏强，高位反而最容易成为空头出击的靶子。 ETH 现在在 2510 附近，节奏跟 BTC 几乎是一个模子刻出来的，联动性太强，暂时看不出独立行情的苗头。 今晚真正的变量，是八月非农这份答卷。如果就业数字明显回暖，薪资也没降温，市场对加息的预期会重新抬头，BTC 很可能先回踩 80000，甚至去试探 78000 的支撑带。但反过来想，如果数据不及预期，美元走弱，风险资产反而可能借机再冲一波。 我现在的想法比较直接： - BTC 在 81800 到 82800 这个区间，我倾向于轻仓试空，目标看 78000 到 80#NvidiaHuggingFaceDeal Nvidia has agreed to acquire Hugging Face for approximately $12.93 billion, bringing one of the world’s most influential open AI communities into the leading AI-chip company. Hugging Face provides access to more than three million models, hundreds of thousands of datasets, and a large developer ecosystem. Nvidia says the platform will remain open and developers will not be required to use Nvidia computing products.
Strategically, the deal expands Nvidia’s position beyond hardware and deeper into the software, model-distribution, and developer layers of artificial intelligence. The opportunity is significant: combining Nvidia’s infrastructure with Hugging Face’s community could simplify AI development and accelerate deployment. The main concern is neutrality. Hugging Face became valuable partly because developers viewed it as an open hub supporting many frameworks and hardware providers. Nvidia must preserve that trust while integrating the business. Regulators may also examine whether the acquisition gives Nvidia excessive influence over the full AI stack.BTC ETF data hits a new high since January. Referring to the ETF peak and shift on January 14, is this another opportunity for a short-term pullback?
Waller's speech stimulated #Bitcoin to rise further. Now let's look at yesterday's ETF data to see if it provides a secondary confirmation for the price and supports continued price rebound!
On Thursday, BTC ETF net inflow reached as high as 731 million, the largest single-day volume since January 14, 2026, second only to the 843 million net inflow on January 14.
Among them, IBIT net inflow accounted for 62.1%, with a slightly more dispersed net inflow compared to recent times, indicating an expansion of market sentiment.
Crypto market data:
During the market rebound, the market cap share of altcoins actually increased, spreading short-term optimistic sentiment to altcoins.
Trading volume increased, but the overall increase was only 40%, not an extreme short-term surge. Obviously, yesterday's pullback did not trigger much selling pressure or turnover.
Total funds increased by 1 billion, with USDC net inflow of 632 million. US funds continue to maintain net inflow, while Asian funds only had a net inflow of 39 million.
Today's data summary:
ETF shows strong short-term growth, combined with net inflow of crypto funds. Looking at market data alone, the short-term outlook is indeed optimistic. However, there is a question: Thursday's ETF was the peak since January 14, and January 14 was the last peak. After that peak, #Bitcoin experienced a pullback.
If Friday's ETF net inflow weakens, will the market replicate the consolidation pullback after January 14? Does the single-day ETF net inflow surge indicate a short-term phase turning point?
From the crypto market trading volume perspective, yesterday's spike and pullback did not trigger much selling pressure, so it is clear that the short term has not yet reached a critical selling pressure level! $BTC After $ZEC rallies, will the privacy sector rotate to $ZEN?
Recently, $ZEC has indeed been extremely strong.
So I started focusing on one thing:
If ZEC enters a high-level consolidation, will funds in the privacy sector continue to rotate to targets like $ZEN and $DASH?
In past similar market conditions, there is often a pattern:
The leader rallies first → the leader peaks → the sector catches up → finally, the undervalued targets experience the main rise.
Of course, this doesn't mean $ZEN will definitely rise.
What I value more is that its narrative is somewhat different.
ZEN is not simply a "mixer."
It shares the same origin as Zcash, inherits zk-SNARKs, and later migrated privacy capabilities to the application layer to do private swaps, cross-chain settlements, selective disclosure, and such.
Simply put:
ZEC is more about "privacy payments."
ZEN is more like betting on "privacy infrastructure."
These two stories are not exactly the same.
Of course, ZEN's biggest problem is also obvious:
Its liquidity is far less than BTC and ZEC.
So if a fund rotation really happens, small-cap coins might have greater elasticity but also suffer harsher pullbacks.
I won't chase it directly now.
First, observe how ZEC behaves at high levels, whether funds in the privacy sector are spreading, and if ZEN breaks out with volume.
If funds really start to spread from the leader to undervalued targets,
then $ZEN might be one I focus on closely.
Sector rotation can be studied in advance, but trading must wait for the funds to give the answer.
$ZEC $ZEN $DASH
⟡ Follow the trend
⟡ Know when to stop trading
⟡ Trade without attachment$SNDK Historically, every divergence in interest rate growth stocks eventually mostly returns to a negative correlation, just with a lag window.Today's crypto market fully played out the term "macro market." $BTC surged above $82,000 in early trading but quickly plunged after the US nonfarm payrolls release, currently around $79,000 tonight, down about 1.9% in 24 hours; $ETH returned near $2,446, down about 1.7%; $SOL around $101.6, down about 3.1%. Bulls were still popping champagne in the morning, but the US Labor Department came to check for drunk driving at night.
The culprit is the August nonfarm payrolls: 162,000 new jobs added, while market expectations were only about 53,000–56,000, with unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. Once the data came out, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged back near **4.80%**, and the market's probability of a September rate hike rose to about 65%. Yesterday Waller just put down the rate hike baton, and today the nonfarm data helped him pick it back up.
The good news is institutional funds remain quite strong. On September 3, US $BTC spot ETF net inflows reached as high as $730.8 million, the best single day since January; $ETH ETF net inflows were $141.4 million, and $SOL ETF also recorded about $6.4 million net inflows. Prices were hammered down by macro factors, but institutions did not simultaneously flee.
Derivatives were very exciting: the previous rally triggered about $469 million in liquidations, of which 87% were shorts, indicating that the $82K surge largely had a short squeeze characteristic; now with the nonfarm data counterattack, leveraged longs are starting to get schooled by the market again.#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温
After the non-farm payrolls data exploded, crypto assets came under pressure across the board. Employment increased by 162,000, far exceeding expectations, and the probability of a rate hike bounced back from 50% to 60%, causing Bitcoin to drop below 80,000.
So here’s the question: ETFs had a net inflow of 277 million yesterday but didn’t push the price up. Is it time to short now?
My view is, don’t rush in the short term. Yesterday BTC briefly broke through 82,000, mainly due to Waller’s dovish stance and the rate hike expectation dropping sharply from 63% to 50%. But the non-farm data reversed that logic; whether there will be a rate hike in September depends entirely on next week’s CPI, and the market is still betting.
Why didn’t ETF inflows drive the price up? Because this rally from 63,000 to 80,000 was mainly driven by a short squeeze and spot buying, clearing out 3 billion USD in shorts. The short squeeze momentum has largely been exhausted, and now we’re in a dense supply zone between 81,000 and 86,000. To push higher requires sustained real money buying, but ETFs actually had net outflows in the past three days of September. This is a typical "price breakout attempt without spot demand following," a divergence worth watching.
In terms of direction, the odds for shorting are indeed there, but wait for the signal. Jiang Zhuoer has already fully cleared at 82,050, reasoning that the consolidation time is too short and the resistance at 83,000-84,000 is hard to break through in one go. The first support line below is at 78,000; breaking that would confirm the end of this rebound, then look at 75,000-76,000, with the most critical support at 71,800-72,000. $BTC 🇺🇸 August Nonfarm Payrolls came in at +162K, dramatically above the roughly 55K–56K consensus. Unemployment stayed at 4.1%, while July was revised from a 23K decline to a 21K increase. This is important because the jobs data is strong enough to keep the Fed's September decision uncertain. Waller had signaled that a policy hold could make sense if inflation continues improving, but today's employment strength gives the hawkish side more ammunition. For Bitcoin, I'm watching the reaction around $BTC BTC will drop to 76000: When the fireworks of the short squeeze fade, those caught naked should surface
Bitcoin's stay above $80,000 is getting shorter each time. The first breakout lasted nearly a day, the second only a few hours, and the third couldn't even hold the closing price. This is not "repeatedly testing resistance"; every effort by the bulls near $80,000 is being mercilessly devoured. I judge that $76,000 is not the end, but it will be the next step tested. Here are the reasons.
1. K33 data has already sentenced this rebound to death
K33 Research clearly states: the rally from around $75,000 to $81,000 was driven primarily by the largest single-day short squeeze since their statistics began. Note, it was not a continuous influx of spot buying, nor explosive growth in ETF funds, but shorts forced to cover. There is a fundamental difference between these.
Short covering buying is one-time. Once short positions are liquidated, the buying disappears. Another key point from K33 data is that futures open interest dropped quickly after the price surged. This indicates leveraged funds are retreating, not new longs entering. What sustains $80,000 without new leveraged long support?
The answer is nothing. So the price will fall and continue to fall.
2. ETF money is "stable," not "fierce"
Last week, US spot BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion, which seems large. But broken down, it's less than $300 million daily. Bitcoin's daily trading volume ranges from $30 billion to $50 billion, so $300 million net inflow has very limited price impact. It acts more as "support" than "push-up."
More importantly, the sustainability of ETF funds is questionable. Last week's inflows may include front-running funds ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting due to improved macro expectations, or short-term allocations by some institutions before the breakout. Once the price repeatedly stalls at $80,000, these funds may choose to wait and see. If ETF buying turns from daily net inflows to net outflows, even $76,000 may not hold.
3. Options expiration approaching, market makers' hedging will amplify downside volatility
On August 28, about $6.44 billion in BTC options expire, with many positions concentrated between $75,000 and $80,000. Market makers' hedging in this range will create "gamma squeeze" — the closer the price is to key levels, the more market makers need to sell futures to hedge risk, amplifying price oscillations and downward pressure in this range.
When the price falls from $80,000 to around $79,000, market makers' hedging may accelerate the decline because they need to readjust the delta of many call options sold near $80,000. This technical selling pressure does not depend on any fundamental changes; it is the market structure itself pushing the price down.
4. Dual selling pressure from profit-taking and trapped positions
After the sharp rise, a large amount of short-term profit-taking has accumulated at high levels. Funds that built positions between $75,000 and $77,000 have a strong urge to cash out near $80,000. Meanwhile, funds trapped above $80,000 since early August are also waiting to exit. These two forces converge at the $80,000 line, forming a huge supply wall.
Bulls need several times the usual buying power to break through this wall. The current incremental market funds are far from enough. So the script we see is: every time the price touches above $80,000, sell orders flood out like a tide, and the price quickly falls back. One or two times can be tolerated, but three or four times will completely drain bulls' confidence.
5. Macro: Rate cut expectations are being repriced
Last week, initial jobless claims were 206,000, exceeding expectations. If tonight's nonfarm payroll data continues strong, market bets on a September rate cut will further shrink. Bitcoin is highly sensitive to liquidity expectations; delayed rate cuts mean funding costs remain high, and risk assets overall are under pressure.
Waller's speech at Jackson Hole poured cold water on the market: policy adjustments will be "decided meeting by meeting," refusing to provide a clear path. This ambiguity itself is bearish — the market needs certainty of easing to support risk appetite, which the Fed cannot provide.
6. 76000 is just the first stop
Technically, BTC's 20-day moving average is trending down, and the price struggles repeatedly below it. The hourly MACD has multiple bearish divergences and returned below the zero line, indicating weakening rebound momentum. If the price effectively breaks below the previous low near $78,000, $76,000 will be the next technical target. This is the platform area before the sharp rise in July, offering some support, but under the resonance of bearish structure and macro headwinds, support is often just a pause in the decline, not the end.
Don't mistake a rebound for a reversal
The rebound from $75,000 to $81,000 will soon be proven just a short squeeze in a bear market. When the squeeze ends, buying dries up, options expiration amplifies volatility, profit-taking escapes, and macro expectations turn cold, all forces point in the same direction.
$76,000 is not doomsday, but it is a sobering number. It reminds everyone: before liquidity truly loosens, before ETF funds form sustained net inflows, before the price firmly holds above $80,000, every sharp rise in Bitcoin is just a breather on the way down.
Shorts' patience is never in a single-day plunge but slowly realized in every detail of a rebound failing to reverse the trend. After the non-farm payroll data significantly exceeded expectations, Trump publicly spoke out, praising the strong employment data while directly urging the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as soon as possible. His core logic is: the U.S. economy's fundamentals are strong, credit conditions have improved, so it should have lower interest rates. He even proposed that if rates are not cut, it would restrict trade with countries that have a trade deficit with the U.S. His words are very direct, hoping the Fed will abandon its anti-inflation goal and shift to easing stimulus. However, the market is not buying it. The employment data itself is very hot, implying inflation still has a risk of rebounding. From the Fed's institutional design perspective, monetary policy remains independent and will not directly follow administrative orders. Once the non-farm payroll data is released, the probability of a rate hike in September actually rises, U.S. Treasury yields go up, and risk assets like Bitcoin respond by falling. Here, an interesting divergence appears: politicians want rate cuts to boost the economy, but the Fed's primary goal is to suppress inflation. Even if Trump publicly pressures, as long as CPI, wages, and other inflation indicators remain high, the Fed is unlikely to rashly shift to easing. From the crypto market perspective, this is just a short-term episode. The real inflation data still determines the market trend, not the rhetoric. Politicians' rhetoric can cause emotional disturbances but is unlikely to immediately change the Fed's policy path. In the short term, the market still needs to focus on subsequent inflation reports and the duration of high interest rates, which are the key factors influencing Bitcoin's mid-term trend. As of 22:50 on September 4, nearly 1 hour of fund flow ranking: 1-hour fund outflow ranking: 1. $BTC, net outflow of 130 million 2. $ETH, net outflow of 33.11 million On the eve of the non-farm payrolls, no one dares to blink first.
Last night at 8:30, the August non-farm payroll data was released—the final piece before the FOMC, finally in place.
ADP had already given a preview: 38,000, the weakest since January. The Beige Book also said that 10 out of 12 districts showed only moderate growth, employment is indeed cooling down. Yet the CME shows a 62.3% probability of a rate hike in September.
This is quite contradictory.
Employment is cooling, but inflation hasn't retreated. Core PCE is still at 3.3%, with 54% of 178 subcomponents rising over 3% year-over-year, compared to 47% a year ago. The market wants to breathe a sigh of relief but doesn't dare to relax completely.
Expectations are all over the place. Reuters expects 58,000, Deutsche Bank 65,000, Wells Fargo and NBC 80,000. Nearly double the difference—expectation gaps are the source of volatility; no matter which side it lands on, someone will get hit.
Right now, there are two paths:
Non-farm below 58,000, rate hike expectations extinguished, BTC rebounds to test 80,000.
Non-farm above 80,000, rate hike expectations confirmed, BTC under pressure to fall back to 75,000 or even 72,000.
Don't guess; if you're right, it's luck; if wrong, it's liquidation. Wait for the data to land and let the candlesticks speak for themselves.
The direction hasn't changed, only the rhythm. Brother Ci has spoken, savor it carefully.
#LastDataBeforeFOMC: This Friday's Non-Farm
$BTC $ETH $SOL咱接着唠。$BTC 兑黄金比率又冲到1月以来最高了，好多人跑来问：“这波强势还能不能续上？”顺便还想知道最近币圈是不是又要搞大动作。咱就掰开揉碎了聊聊，全是人话，不绕弯子。 --- 一、BTC兑黄金，这波强势到底能不能续？ 先说结论：短期有戏，但别指望一路平推。 为啥这么说？因为现在BTC能压着黄金打，主要靠三股劲儿： 1. 现货ETF天天吸筹，机构进场不像散户那样一惊一乍，他们买完就囤着，抛压小。 2. 减半后矿工产出少了，每天新增的币不够卖，供需关系偏紧。 3. 全球乱糟糟，有人把BTC当“数字黄金”避险，地缘一紧张，资金就往里躲。 但问题也来了——黄金自己也在高位，如果金价突然飙一波，那这个比率可能就涨不动了，甚至回落。再加上现在美联储态度暧昧，非农刚超预期，加息预期又抬头了，美元一走强，BTC想跑赢黄金就更费劲。 所以我的判断是：趋势没坏，但节奏得踩准。别一看创新高就无脑冲，等回踩到关键位置（比如BTC兑黄金比率缩一缩）再上车，安全垫更厚。 --- 二、币圈最近有啥大动荡？说出来你可能不信 最近币圈表面上BTC挺稳，但暗地里已经波涛汹涌，我说几件你就能感觉到： 1. 非农16.August payrolls jumped 162K, far above the roughly 56K market expectation, while unemployment held at 4.1%. July was also revised higher to +21K. This changes the short-term BTC setup. A stronger labor market gives the Fed more room to keep policy restrictive, while Treasury yields have moved higher after the release. Bitcoin initially struggled around the $80K region, showing that the jobs surprise is creating two-way volatility. Now my focus is on the reaction rather than the headline: 🔹 AbovNonfarm payroll shock! 162,000 far exceeds expectations, BTC dives! Is the market script completely disrupted?
Tonight's nonfarm data dealt the market a sudden blow.
US August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, while the market expected only 53,000, more than triple the forecast, marking the highest since March. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, and the employment data for the previous two months was revised upward by a total of 55,000.
At the moment the data was released, $BTC plunged below $81,000 in the short term, and risk assets collectively weakened.
The market's first reaction was straightforward: stronger-than-expected employment = persistent inflation pressure = more confidence for the Fed to raise rates. The probability of a September rate hike had been hovering around 50%, but this nonfarm data directly pushed the rate hike expectations up a notch.
But don't rush to call a crash. The headline number of this nonfarm report is explosive, but looking into the details, it's not a cause for market panic.
1. Employment strength is misleading: 60% of the increase comes from just two sectors
The 162,000 new jobs are extremely unevenly distributed and do not reflect broad industry strength.
• Food and beverage bars added 59,000 jobs
• Local government education added 42,000 jobs
These two sectors alone contributed over 60% of the employment increase.
On the other hand, the information sector continued to lose 23,000 jobs, manufacturing only added 16,000, and healthcare growth noticeably slowed.
Essentially, growth is driven by localized service industries and government positions, raising questions about sustainability and far from indicating broad employment overheating.
2. Key signal: moderate wage growth, no inflationary spiral
More importantly, many in the market overlooked this: employment rose, but wages did not follow.
Average hourly earnings increased only 3.1% year-over-year, maintaining a moderate pace.
This means employment growth has not translated into wage growth, and the market's biggest concern—the "wage-inflation spiral"—has not appeared. For the Fed, this is far from a strong reason to immediately raise rates.
The real decisive factor remains CPI
Citigroup economists' judgment is representative: this nonfarm data leans more toward "stable" and is insufficient to trigger a major policy shift.
Fed Chair Powell has also clearly stated that compared to inflation data, employment data has limited influence on policy decisions.
In plain terms:
Nonfarm payrolls are just an appetizer; the CPI on September 11 will be the final determinant of whether rates rise in September.
This nonfarm data at most raises rate hike expectations and amplifies market volatility but does not decide the final outcome.
Reminders for traders
1. Don't turn fully bearish just because of one red candle, nor rush to bottom-fish betting on a reversal; the event window is not over, and volatility will continue;
2. Avoid heavy bets on rate hikes or no hikes; all expectations before data release are fluid and can reverse at any time;
3. Manage position sizes and patiently wait for the CPI release; act when certainty is higher, which is much safer than gambling on data outcomes.
The biggest trading mistake is being led by a single data point or one candlestick.
The nonfarm shock is just the beginning; the real test is still ahead.
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 Reasons for OKX Removing CORE On-Chain Earning Feature
Risk Warning: Virtual currencies are not protected by domestic laws. The following is only an industry information review and does not constitute investment advice.
The exchange has not issued a separate long qualitative announcement specifically for CORE. Based on industry rules, product mechanisms, and community information, there are four layers of real reasons:
1. Protocol-level risks: CORE staking has a long unlocking period and high technical uncertainty
CORE on-chain staking has an unlocking waiting period; after delegated staking, immediate redemption is not possible. In case of mainnet upgrades, validator failures, or protocol bugs, the exchange cannot quickly retrieve user assets.
On-chain earning means the exchange stakes on behalf of users on the public chain. If the network experiences anomalies, the exchange must bear the redemption pressure from users. Core DAO’s early validator reward mechanism had abnormal incidents, amplifying platform risk concerns.
Note: This does not mean CORE is worthless; the exchange simply no longer provides the staking entry. Users can still withdraw CORE to the official wallet and stake on-chain themselves.
2. Exchange’s overall contraction of on-chain earning products
OKX is not only removing CORE but has gradually delisted on-chain staking products for multiple public chains (Avalanche, OKT, etc.).
Overseas regulations (such as the EU’s MiCA) impose increasingly strict compliance requirements on centralized platforms proxying DeFi staking: platforms must bear compliance responsibility for risks, returns, and lock-up consequences of staking. Many exchanges proactively reduce third-party public chain delegated staking earning services to lessen compliance burdens.
The on-chain earning protocol itself allows platforms to pause or remove staking products at any time, as stated in the user agreement.
3. Mismatch between returns and operational costs
- CORE staking rewards come from block inflation rewards, which fluctuate greatly; inflation release schedules may change;
- The exchange must maintain nodes, collect rewards, pay on-chain gas fees, and manage user redemption scheduling;
- If the coin price continues to bottom out, staking returns become less attractive, the platform bears technical and redemption risks, but the commercial value generated is limited, so this product is prioritized for removal.
4. Clarification of market misconceptions
❌ Misconception 1: Removing earning means delisting CORE trading
→ Incorrect, only the "on-chain earning/staking finance" is removed; spot trading and deposits/withdrawals remain normal.
❌ Misconception 2: The project had a major security breach and ran away
→ No official announcement disclosing major security incidents; the mainnet is operating normally.
❌ Misconception 3: The exchange is bearish on this project
→ Removing finance products ≠ denying the coin narrative; finance products are independent and have separate review logic from coin trading pairs.
Practical tips for users
1. For CORE already in on-chain earning: the exchange will execute redemption and return funds to the account; pay attention to platform redemption cycle notifications;
2. For those who still want to participate in CORE staking: withdraw CORE from the exchange to the official Core wallet and delegate stake directly on the Core DAO official website, bearing lock-up and network risks yourself;
3. Distinguish between exchange-custodied staking vs. user self-custodied on-chain staking; the risks are completely different.MEME coin surged then fell back, dropping below a $70 million market cap, as leading members of the fomo community joined in selling. On September 4, despite the Robinhood co-founder tweeting support for stock tokenization, MEME's price surged then retreated, with its market cap falling below $70 million again, currently at $67.41 million, marking the lowest level since its $150 million peak. Several prominent members of the fomo community, known for their steady long-term holding, also sold large orders worth tens of thousands of dollars, signaling a possible pause in the MEME narrative. According to GMGN market data, on September 4, MEME exhibited a typical bullish news but no price increase pattern: the Robinhood co-founder publicly supported stock tokenization, which should have been a significant sentiment catalyst for the meme sector. The coin price briefly surged on the news but then fell back, with the market cap dropping below the $70 million threshold again, currently at $67.41 million, the lowest since the $150 million historical peak, representing a retracement of over 55% from the high. An even more notable signal comes from changes in the token holding structure. The fomo community is known for its steady long-term holding style and is the core force supporting the coin's stable holdings. However, this time several leading members also joined the selling, dumping large orders worth tens of thousands of dollars. When core holders, known for holding firmly, start cashing out, it usually means the community's confidence in the subsequent narrative has clearly weakened. Positive news landed but failed to support the price.今天这份非农，把刚刚还很热的加密市场直接泼了一盆冷水。 美国8月新增非农就业16.2万人，市场预期只有6.5万人左右，直接接近预期的2.5倍。 数据出来以后，美元和美债收益率往上走，$BTC 一度跌破$8万。 但我反而觉得，这次回踩非常有价值。 因为前两天我们一直在讨论一个问题： $BTC冲上$8.2万，到底是真突破，还是一轮空头回补？ 现在答案开始变得清楚。 如果一个币只有在宏观环境友好的时候才能上涨，那它更多是流动性交易。 但如果美联储重新面临更高的利率压力，市场突然转鹰，它依然能守住关键位置——这种币才值得继续盯。 所以接下来我不会简单看“谁跌得少”。 我更关注的是谁能最快重新夺回高点。 比如$LINK。 昨天我们刚聊过$LINK，价格已经来到$12附近。现在面对强非农，如果$LINK能够守住$11附近，甚至重新挑战$12—$12.5，那么它的强势就有点不一样了。 因为它最近同时叠加了传统金融、跨链、稳定币储备证明、代币化资产这些叙事。 再看$XRP、$SOL、$BNB。 这些币前几天已经开始明显跟随$BTC之外的资金轮动。 如果今天宏观冲击之后，它们没有把前几天的涨幅全部吐回去