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Binance 的 BTC 储备今年以来持续走高。9 月 1 日的储备证明数据显示，钱包中的 BTC 约 68.34 万枚，用户净余额约 68.24 万枚，储备率仍在 100% 以上。 于是市场上又出现一种声音： “这么多 BTC 往交易所走，是不是意味着大户准备砸盘？” 这个逻辑不能说完全没道理。交易所 BTC 储备增加，确实意味着市场上有更多筹码处于随时可以交易的位置，尤其是在 BTC 接近前期压力区域的时候，短线抛压值得警惕。 但问题是——交易所余额增加 ≠ 这些 BTC 一定马上要卖。 资金可能来自用户充值、托管调整、做市商调仓、抵押品移动等多种因素。近期链上数据也显示，Binance BTC 储备从 4 月底约 61.7 万枚一路升至 8 月底约 68.5 万枚，但这本身并不能证明这些币已经进入卖出流程。 另外，SAFU 也不能简单理解成“卖压”。 Binance 今年 2 月已经完成约 1.5 万枚 BTC、约 10 亿美元规模的 SAFU 配置，平均成本约 7 万美元。这笔资金本质上是用户保护基金的储备配置，而不是准备抛售 BTC 的资金。 ETF 方面，资金也没有出现单【ETH · Pre-CPI Release Strategy】
Based on recent marginal trends in oil prices, housing rents, medical services, and other components, my personal judgment is that this CPI may exceed market expectations.
If the data comes in hotter than expected, risk assets are likely to face a rapid emotional shock, and ETH may experience a sharp dip.
2330 is a key strong support level to watch right now:
• If a dip reaches this range and a clear rebound signal appears, consider a small position to try going long;
• If the price does not firmly recover above 2400, remain on the sidelines and avoid increasing exposure.
Volatility around the data window will be sharply amplified, with a high probability of spikes and false breakouts. Everything should be based on actual market signals after the data release; avoid heavy positions in advance. Oracle’s latest earnings show the market is starting to reward real AI execution, not just hype. AI cloud revenue jumped 121% YoY, while RPO climbed to $664B and guidance improved. Adobe also beat estimates, yet shares fell as investors demand stronger AI monetization and cash flow. For BTC, massive AI capex keeps liquidity expansion relevant, but near-term direction still depends on inflation, rates, and tonight’s CPI. Execution matters #PPIHotCPINext #OracleAICloudUp121% #BTCSpotETFOutflows 私信炸了，都在问法老，10年期美债收益率都快干到5%了，贝森特那60亿回购砸下去，怎么连个水花都没溅起来？ 法老直接说，贝森特这波操作，就好比在沙漠里拿个小水壶去浇灭一场大火，心意到了，火苗还在窜。 10年期美债收益率周五亚市直接冲到4.974%，30年期更是站上5.37%，双双刷新多年纪录。 回购为啥没用？ 9月10日财政部说要买最多60亿，结果实际只买了51.87亿，连自己定的上限都没够着，这信号比买了多少更吓人。分析师直接开嘲——“拿豌豆射手打坦克战”，60亿扔进40万亿的美债市场里，跟法老往金字塔顶上撒把沙子没区别。 真正把收益率往上推的是三件事： 油价飙到107美元推着通胀预期往上拱；8月PPI同比干到5.4%超预期；特朗普又承诺要发5000美元支票，赤字账单还得往上翻。9月加息概率已经飙到72%，债市摆明了不信贝森特那张嘴。 对大饼来说，5%的无风险收益率就是一把悬在头顶的刀。 拿着国债躺赚5%，谁还愿意去赌波动资产？大饼短期被压在78000附近不是没道理的。好单子是等出来的，债市这把火不灭，大饼就只能在夹缝里找机会。 $BTC $ETH $ZEC #10年期美债逼近5%关Oracle’s latest earnings show the market is starting to reward real AI execution, not just hype. AI cloud revenue jumped 121% YoY, while RPO climbed to $664B and guidance improved. Adobe also beat estimates, yet shares fell as investors demand stronger AI monetization and cash flow. For BTC, massive AI capex keeps liquidity expansion relevant, but near-term direction still depends on inflation, rates, and tonight’s CPI. Execution matters more than promises.#PPIHotCPINext #OracleAICloudUp121% The most stunning tonight is definitely $ETH, damn resilient to the drop. On the $BTC side, after a large inflow of spot ETF turned into a net outflow, coupled with PPI data exceeding expectations, the big coin was directly smashed through 77,000, dragging $SOL and a bunch of altcoins down to the floor #BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负 But $ETH actually held firm around 2,400, not following the big crash. Usually, the second coin tends to fall with the market and not rise, acting like a weakling, but tonight it$BTC Bitcoin Falls Below $77,000: PPI Surpasses Expectations Triggering Rate Hike Panic
$BTC fell below the $77,000 mark under the combined pressure of multiple macroeconomic negatives, with a 24-hour drop of 3.165%. The core trigger for this decline was the U.S. August Producer Price Index (PPI) soaring 5.4% year-over-year, far exceeding the market expectation of 5.1%, while the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 5.353%, the highest level in 19 years.
Rate hike expectations have sharply intensified. CME data shows the market's pricing probability for a 25 basis point Fed rate hike on September 16 has risen to about 70%. For Bitcoin, which generates no cash flow, when the risk-free rate exceeds 5%, the opportunity cost of holding it rises significantly, accelerating capital flow into yield-bearing assets.
A deeper issue is that the foundation of this recent rally is not solid. Previously, Bitcoin rebounded from a low to $81,500 mainly driven by leveraged funds, with no significant expansion in stablecoin market capitalization. After the PPI data release, over $190 million in long positions were forcibly liquidated within 60 minutes, creating a negative feedback loop of "decline—liquidation—further decline." Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows totaling more than $147 million over two consecutive days, further weakening buying power.
Technically, whether the support zone between $76,000 and $77,000 can hold is critical. If broken, a rapid drop to $74,000–$75,000 may follow, with a more crucial support level near $72,000. $BTC If the CPI is cooler than expected, there won't be a rush to short US stocks.
Because the market already priced in part of the worst-case scenario yesterday: "hot PPI + Fed rate hikes + 10Y at 5%."
Once the CPI breaks this expectation, high Beta assets like TSLA / ORCL / BTC / ETH, which have been heavily suppressed, might actually become the fastest to rebound.
After the 8:30 PM release tonight, the first things you should watch are: CPI →#PPIHotCPINext #OracleAICloudUp121% #BTCSpotETFOutflows CORE: Is the 2.1 Billion Total Supply a Talisman? A Flaw Exposes the Biggest Misconception in BTCFi
⚠️ This article is based on publicly available on-chain information and does not constitute any investment advice.
During the bull market, the BTCFi sector remained highly popular, and CORE was once the most favored token among retail investors in this space. With Satoshi-Plus hybrid consensus, Bitcoin hash power protection, and a hard cap of 2.1 billion tokens, a complete narrative convinced many investors that as long as the total supply was locked, the project had underlying security guarantees. It wasn’t until the validator reward vulnerability was exposed on August 31 that the market faced a harsh reality: a total supply cap does not equal token release security.
According to official disclosures, this vulnerability stemmed from a flaw in the reward calculation logic, allowing malicious validator nodes to claim block rewards repeatedly. The incident did not exceed the 2.1 billion maximum supply and did not mint new tokens out of thin air, but it caused a large amount of rewards, which were supposed to be gradually released over decades, to be released prematurely in a short period—typical of an overdraft issuance. The total supply number remained unchanged, but the token release schedule was completely out of control.
After the crisis, the project initiated a v1.0.26 hard fork without rolling back historical transactions, so ordinary users’ assets were not affected. The protocol burned 150 million abnormal tokens, bringing the ledger total back to 2.1 billion. However, the hard fork could only fix the ledger and could not resolve the lingering risks. About 69 million tokens released prematurely had already left the reward pool and could not be recovered through the fork, becoming a long-term potential selling pressure on the market.
To this day, the full technical post-mortem report, the duration of the vulnerability, the list of involved nodes, and the flow path of excess tokens have not been fully disclosed publicly. This information black box is the risk most feared by institutional investors. Many people have a misconception that Bitcoin hash power protects the entire chain. The fact is, Bitcoin hash power only secures the hashing layer; upper-layer reward distribution and node governance code can still have fatal vulnerabilities. Hash power endorsement does not mean foolproof security.
CORE’s roadmap is very promising, planning to generate real protocol revenue through LST liquid staking, SatPay payments, and AMP asset management protocols, using business profits to buy back tokens and create a positive value flywheel. But in reality, the current ecosystem’s fee scale is very small and insufficient to offset the selling pressure caused by token releases. The main driving force in the market still comes from staking incentives rather than real business profits.
After the incident, exchanges tightened risk controls and removed CORE’s on-chain earning features, reflecting the market’s straightforward stance. The community often compares CORE with Radar Coin; objectively, CORE’s code is open source, on-chain data is verifiable, and it does not have hierarchical referral rebates, fundamentally different from closed-source Ponzi schemes. But not being a Ponzi scheme does not mean it is risk-free; consensus layer vulnerabilities, insufficient information disclosure, and leftover selling pressure are objective realities.
The BTCFi sector remains hot, with STX, MERL, and BABY continuously diverting incremental funds. Bull market capital is pragmatic, prioritizing tokens without security stains and with transparent governance. CORE’s mainnet is still running, and the ecosystem is iterating, but market consensus has already fractured.
The hard fork only fixed the numbers on the ledger; shattered market trust is difficult to restore through technical upgrades alone. To regain investor trust, a full public security review, continuous ecosystem business implementation, and transparent node governance are required.
This incident also serves as a wake-up call to all BTCFi participants: when evaluating public chain value, do not blindly trust the total supply cap stated in the whitepaper. Token release schedules, code security, and information transparency equally determine a project’s fate. Paper scarcity is easy to maintain; rebuilding consensus among people is the toughest challenge.$CORE: Don't mistake "overseas voting approval" for an official announcement
Let's separate two matters first.
✅ Confirmed: v1.0.26 hard fork completed, chain upgraded, vulnerability entry closed, additional excess rewards cut off. This is a node consensus upgrade, not equivalent to post-incident governance voting.
⚠️ Unconfirmed: How to handle abnormal tokens, whether to recover or destroy them, and coordination with exchanges remain unclear. There is no official vote counting page, no formal announcement, and no stamped conclusion of "vote passed." Overseas KOLs and nodes expressing opinions on social platforms are just statements of position and cannot replace on-chain governance results.
The community is currently divided into two camps:
Optimists believe nodes have reached a tacit understanding, voting is just a formality; vulnerabilities are blocked, consensus is established, and once exchange risk controls end and deposits/withdrawals resume, liquidity will return.
Pessimists believe without a complete and verifiable vote and review, risks remain unresolved; abnormal tokens already leaked may still impact the market, and "approval" is just an emotional expectation.
The conclusion remains unchanged: rumors, screenshots, and node statements do not equal facts. The only real signals are two—official announcement + liquidity recovery. If the plan is officially approved and implemented, the official X will announce it; until then, don't treat overseas bloggers' words as set in stone. $CORE is currently a game of expectations, not an official landing.$SNDK current price is 1707. Why can't this rebound hold? Mainly three points.
First, the funds are not right. Last Friday, the expectation of entering the S&P 100 pulled the underlying stock up by 11.9%, and the contract surged to 1814, but it was mainly driven by passive funds, not sustained active buying. After the rehearsal ended, the premium naturally had to be given back.
Second, the volume is insufficient. When the price was hammered around 1666, volume clearly increased, indicating active selling; the rebound to 1707, however, showed a clear decrease in volume, more like a technical rebound caused by short covering rather than bulls re-entering. Without volume, the sustainability of the rise is questionable.
Third, the external environment is weak. BTC fell from 79737 to 76400, combined with a hot PPI and CPI not yet settled, high-leverage products find it hard to have an independent rally.
So the short-term focus is on 1760 and 1666: failing to hold above 1760 means the rebound remains weak; breaking below 1666 confirms the next downtrend.
The fundamentals are not bad, but short-term trading is about funds, leverage, and sentiment.
The above is just personal thinking and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC $ETH #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121% #BTC现货ETF连续流出 Oracle surged while Adobe slipped, sending a clear message: the AI bull market isn’t dead, but the “add AI and watch the stock rise” era is over. Investors now want proof that AI can generate real revenue and profits. Watch four things: AI-driven orders and sales, pricing power and margins, manageable capex, and stronger cash flow. AI exposure alone isn’t enough anymore—execution and monetization are what the market rewards.#PPIHotCPINext Just shared with you yesterday about $POPMART
The long-term view remains unchanged, the relatively cheap safety cushion is sufficient
Hold long-term, build positions slowly
The company's fundamentals have not deteriorated essentially, the actual controller + management team and long-term funds together lock up over 55% of the shares, the real free float is not large, the probability of large-scale chip stampede is relatively low, this is what I first look at for long-term holding.
Also, the 122‑150 HKD range (about 15.56‑19.13 USDT) is the cost concentration area for long-term funds, and the support here is considerable.
But in the short term, it may still be a volatile market, requiring catalysts
Above 175‑190 HKD (about 22.31‑24.23 USDT) there is a large amount of trapped positions, a rebound to this range will face considerable selling pressure from those trying to break even.
At the same time, short selling accounts for 8‑11% of the total shares, corresponding to a relatively small free float, the short interest ratio is high, theoretically there is short squeeze potential
In a word, the company's physical asset-based safety floor determines its long-term odds Iran's recent move to allow BTC and USDT for foreign trade settlements shouldn't be seen as too romantic. This is not some "victory of decentralized faith"; it's purely a survival instinct forced by sanctions—since SWIFT won't play along and the dollar channels are cut off, they have no choice but to find their own way.
First, let's address the initial two questions. Will this model become a trend? Yes, but only within certain circles. As long as there are sanctions and foreign exchange controls, cryptocurrency's "shadow settlements" will always have a market. But the biggest challenge has never been how fast on-chain transfers are; it's the "last mile": you receive USDT, but how do you legally convert it into real money to buy food or chips? The AML (anti-money laundering) crackdown in various countries can block off-the-books cash-out channels at any time.
As for which has the advantage between BTC and USDT, the answer is harsh: definitely stablecoins, and USDT, which carries a slightly "gray" pedigree, will be more favored. Foreign trade requires locking in profits—who can tolerate BTC being worth full price in the morning and only 80% by the evening? Stablecoins are the real "cross-border hard currency."
In fact, what truly drives cryptocurrency toward real-world application is never the grand narratives in whitepapers, but the "urgent needs" of the real world. When a country or a business is strangled by the traditional financial system, crypto assets become the lifeline.
Only these bloodied, real pain points can truly make technology and policy bow down.
$BTC #伊朗允许BTC与USDT外贸结算 An address used 40x leverage to bet on $BTC, with a paper profit of over 14 million USD in one month. Newcomers seeing such numbers often react by thinking the higher the leverage, the faster the profits.
The mechanism is actually the opposite. 40x means if the price moves 2.5% against you, the principal is wiped out. The reason he can get this paper profit is that the direction happened to be right, not because the leverage itself is safe.
What’s more important is that he simultaneously holds a 20x $ETH position, stacking two directions in the same way. This looks more like a concentrated bet on the overall market trend rather than a diversified allocation.
You can watch whether this address reduces its position later. If the position doesn’t move when the profit retraces, it means he’s betting on the trend continuing; once he starts to gradually close positions, it means he himself no longer believes in it.
#BTC现货ETF连续流出
#伊朗允许BTC与USDT外贸结算 #加密财库分化：买币还是回购？ $BTC $ETH Is inflation heating up again? 🤔 Oil is climbing, energy costs are rising, and that creates a nasty chain reaction: Higher oil → higher prices → stickier inflation → fewer rate cuts → more pressure on risk assets. Yesterday’s U.S. PPI showed wholesale prices rising 5.4% YoY, with energy costs playing a major role. If oil stays elevated, inflation could remain stubborn for longer than the market wants. And tonight is the real test. 👀 🇺🇸 8:30 PM — U.S. CPI 🇺🇸 10:00 PM — Consumer sentiment/inBitwise will liquidate the Dogecoin ETF BWOW, planning to stop trading on October 14 and distribute cash to holders based on net asset value on October 22. This once again shows that not all Alt ETFs can meet institutional demand. Although $DOGE has brand recognition, the asset size and continuous inflows of the ETF are the key factors for issuers to continue operating; they cannot rely solely on community sentiment. Of course, the closure of an ETF does not mean the DOGE network or token disappears; it simply indicates that a certain product form did not succeed $ETH guys say the vote on the Clear Act, which can start on September 15, is the vote to end the lengthy debate, requiring 60 votes (this is also the most critical). After that, a full chamber vote is needed (a simple majority, only 51 votes required), then the Senate and House versions of the bill must be reconciled (another vote is needed here), and only then can it be sent to the President.
Don't be misled by the news into thinking it will definitely pass on September 15.$ETH is showing a weak volatile trend today, with around 2400 as the key level. As of now, ETH is about $2466, with an intraday low reaching $2411. Compared to the previous high near $2564, it is still in a consolidation phase after a high-level pullback. I am currently focusing on 4 levels: * $2500: Short-term first resistance; only a firm break above signals strength #PPIHotCPINext #OracleAICloudUp121% #BTCSpotETFOutflows #PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI sets the direction The "hard asset" rift between oil, Bitcoin, and gold: PPI exceeding expectations combined with Brent crude oil breaking through $100 has pushed market pricing for a Fed rate hike next week to over 70%. The 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching the 5% threshold, clearly suppressing non-yielding assets: cash and government bonds become more attractive, while gold and Bitcoin pay no dividends.
However, the pressure on the two is different. The 90-day correlation coefficient between gold and the 10-year US Treasury yield is -0.41, showing a more direct reaction to rising interest rates; last night spot gold fell over 1%, reflecting this. Bitcoin shows "insensitivity"—its correlation coefficient with Treasury yields is only -0.17, almost unrelated. The funding side confirms this divergence: over $300 million in liquidations occurred in the crypto market within 24 hours, 86% of which were long positions, yet $BTC's intraday decline remains relatively restrained.
More notably, their correlation is strengthening. The 90-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold has climbed to +0.59, the highest since 2020, indicating they are being grouped together under the macro narrative of "fiscal deterioration and currency depreciation." But gold is currently more suppressed by real US Treasury yields, while Bitcoin's pricing anchor leans more toward long-term scarcity.
Tonight's CPI is the decisive variable for the short-term direction. If inflation is hotter than expected, rate hike expectations will solidify, and gold's interest rate sensitivity disadvantage may cause it to face more pressure; if CPI is lower than expected, both are likely to rebound in sync, but Bitcoin's "insensitivity" to rates may make its elasticity slightly weaker. If the CPI is cooler than expected, there won't be a rush to short US stocks.
Because the market already priced in part of the worst-case scenario yesterday: "hot PPI + Fed rate hikes + 10Y at 5%."
Once the CPI breaks this expectation, high Beta assets like TSLA / ORCL / BTC / ETH, which have been heavily suppressed, might actually become the fastest to rebound.
After the 8:30 PM release tonight, the first things you should watch are: CPI → 10Y → Nasdaq → BTC/ZEC.$BTC cannot have interest rate hikes; the US already has 40 trillion in debt. The annual fiscal revenue is only 5 trillion. Now, just the interest alone requires 1 trillion a year to be paid. After an interest rate hike, the annual interest payment will be 2 trillion! What does that mean? It's equivalent to two-fifths of the fiscal revenue. Can you see such an obvious fact?#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Multiple assets may seem diversified, but most of the time it's just the same Bitcoin Beta split into five different names.
Let me acknowledge one thing first. When the market is trending smoothly, coins can move independently; but when it crashes hard, correlations tend to approach 1. So what you need to control is not the usual correlation matrix, but whether extreme weeks cause simultaneous crashes. Five altcoins each taking 10% position may look like 50% exposure on the surface, but in reality, it could be close to a full position in crypto risk.
The approach is simple. First identify the factor, then the name. Is this position betting on liquidity, interest rate cuts, ETFs, or the narrative of a specific chain? For coins under the same factor, the total position caps the risk, and diversification is not counted by "how many coins I hold." BTC, ETH, and high Beta altcoins stacked together count as one risk exposure, with altcoins multiplied by a coefficient. Assets like gold, oil, and US bonds that may conflict with crypto can hedge part of the risk; you cannot treat them and altcoins as decorations in the same basket.
Before opening a new position, ask: when it falls, will my other holdings fall together? If yes, it’s not a new position, it’s an add-on. Either reduce old positions to free up quota, or recalculate the new position based on portfolio risk, not just by looking at the single coin’s size.
Correlations change. In a bull market it might be 0.4, but during a sharp drop it can rise to 0.9. So limits should be set based on the worst week, not last month’s backtest. To truly control drawdown, reduce factor exposure, not just swap A for B that looks like A.A big bearish candlestick turned 'reversing to catch people' into 'reversing and crushing people.' I stared at the liquidation data for a long time. Guess who got liquidated the most this time—bulls or bears? A few days ago, I almost believed that saying, 'A pullback is a chance to get in.' BTC, BCH, ZEC were all named together. Someone in the group shouted 'reverse to catch someone,' but I hesitated for two seconds and didn't move. That car didn't even plan to stop—it was in reverse gear. Later, after looking at the derivatives data, I realized this wasn't just a regular drawdown—the leverage structure had been torn down from the inside out. Let me start with the signals I saw. When prices were dropping, the open interest didn't shrink sharply in sync, which meant many people weren't taking profits actively but were being pushed by forced liquidations. The funding rate quickly shifted from positive to flat or even negative, erasing the bullish premium. This means the previous group of chasing highs and leveraging are now paying the price for the narrative of "catching people in reverse." More importantly, during the decline, spot trading volume was not amplified enough to withstand selling pressure, indicating buyers were hesitant, not rushing to buy shares. What is actually trading here is not the positive or negative of a single coin, but "how much leverage has yet to be cleared." When the crowding of bulls is too high, any downward test will trigger a chain of events. BTC, as collateral and sentiment anchor, once it breaks below a key level, ETH and altcoins will passively reduce risk, making highly volatile targets like BCH and ZEC more likely to be used as cash machines. This is the second layer of transmission: it's not that funds flow from sector A to sector B, but that the entire risk budget is being compressed—everyone should go firstBrothers, the market is entering a sensitive macro window. Central-bank policy, oil-driven inflation, and the yen carry trade are all creating fresh pressure on risk assets. 🇯🇵 Japan: Carry-trade risk is back in the spotlight Markets are pricing a high probability of another BOJ rate increase, with expectations pointing toward a move from 1.0% to 1.25%. If the yen strengthens sharply, leveraged carry trades could face pressure as traders unwind positions. The key risk is not just the rate hikeThe latest U.S. data gave the market a mixed signal, but traders clearly focused on the bearish side. $BTC suddenly slipped toward $76K, while $ETH, which had been holding relatively well, finally lost the $2.4K area. Altcoins followed with even sharper declines. So what triggered the aggressive selling? The market is now positioning for a potentially hotter CPI print, which could keep inflation concerns elevated and push rate expectations higher. That’s why leverage is getting punished so quick> 报告周期：2026-09-10（最近完整交易日）至 2026-09-18（未来7天窗口） > 生成时间：2026-09-11 15:05 +08:00 > 定位：短期风险雷达，帮助读者识别最近一个交易日到未来 3-7 天的黄金市场重要变量。 > 本文为公开信息整理与情景分析，不构成任何投资建议或交易依据。 --- ## 核心摘要 最近完整交易日（9月10日）国际金价大幅回落： - COMEX 12月活跃合约收 4,358.50 美元/盎司，跌约 2%； - 现货纽约尾盘收 4,314.82 美元/盎司（-1.91%）； - 上海金交所 Au99.99 日盘收 952.99 元/克（+0.13%，当日国际大跌发生在国内日盘收盘后的纽约时段）。 今日最重要变量是北京时间今晚 20:30 发布的美国 8 月 CPI（FOMC 前最后通胀读数，共识同比 3.4% 为预期值）。未来 7 天还需关注 9/15-16 FOMC（决议北京时间 9/17 02:00、附带点阵图）与 9/17-18 日本央行会议。 --- ## 1. 今日信息优先级 | 优先级 | 重点信息 $ETH Yesterday, mid-term positioning for Erbing long position reached 65 points!
Nearly 20,000 yuan of oil was sold
ETH is more than three times what we suggest
2415 long trades, target 2480, one order yielded 65 points
Clear planning helps us block out emotional distractions.
Strictly following the plan is the only way to steadily accumulate returns over the long term.September 11 Evening CPI Forecast and Its Impact on the Crypto Market
Tonight at 20:30 (Beijing Time), the US August CPI will be released. Market consensus expects overall month-on-month +0.4%, year-on-year 3.4%, core month-on-month +0.2%, year-on-year 2.4%, showing an "externally hot, internally warm" pattern — oil prices breaking 100 push up the overall figure, while core services remain moderate. The crypto market has already been under pressure in advance, with $BTC fluctuating between 76500 and 77500, down about 5.1% for the week, highly correlated with the 10-year US Treasury yield (4.94%). $ETH weekly decline is 0.2%, showing strong performance.
Outlook forecast:
If CPI exceeds expectations (core >0.2%), it will confirm the Fed's rate hike expectations, US Treasury yields may break 5%, the dollar will strengthen, and BTC will likely test 73000–75000 to find support, with altcoins experiencing larger declines; if it meets expectations, sentiment will only slightly recover, and BTC will maintain a range-bound movement between 75500–78500; if below expectations, rate hike concerns will ease, crypto is expected to rebound, and BTC will challenge 80000.
The core transmission chain is "CPI → interest rate expectations → dollar liquidity → crypto and other risk assets." The main variable this time is the energy component; if high oil prices transmitting to core inflation are confirmed by the data, it will further strengthen hawkish pricing.PPI has already poured cold water on the market, and tonight's CPI will determine the direction of this macro battle
US August PPI exceeded market expectations, production-side price pressure still exists, the market is again worried that the pace of inflation cooling is insufficient, and interest rate expectations have also heated up
Simply put:
Corporate costs have not significantly decreased, and prices of goods and services may still be affected in the future.
So what the market is really focusing on now is not the PPI itself, but:
Whether this pressure will be transmitted to the consumer side.
If tonight's CPI continues to be strong:
Inflation concerns rise → rate cut expectations fall → US Treasury yields rise → risk assets come under pressure.
BTC may continue to test support near $77,000 in the short term
But if core CPI remains moderate:
The market may reprice policy easing expectations, reducing pressure on the dollar and yields, giving BTC a chance for a technical rebound.
The biggest problem in the current market:
It's not the lack of buying, but too much uncertainty.
Funds are all waiting for the final answer before the Fed's September meeting.
BTC and ETH have been weak recently, essentially waiting for liquidity direction confirmation.
So tonight, don't simply interpret:
Good CPI = rise, bad CPI = fall.
PPI is the prelude, CPI is the key chapter that determines market sentiment.
The real big move often doesn't start at the moment data is released, but gradually forms after the market digests the data. $BTC #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 OpenAI联手三星研发下一代AI芯片，AI芯片格局要变了？
OpenAI和三星这次的合作，我觉得不能只看成一条普通的产业新闻。
真正值得关注的是：OpenAI正在越来越认真地往“自己掌握芯片”这条路走。
目前OpenAI已经和Broadcom合作开发自研AI芯片Jalapeño，而且这颗芯片已经进入量产阶段，台积电负责制造。现在又进一步和三星推进下一代芯片的研发和生产，这背后的信号其实很明显：OpenAI未来对算力的需求，可能已经大到不能完全依赖单一供应链了。
以前大家聊AI芯片，第一反应就是英伟达。
但现在越来越多大厂开始考虑一个问题：如果自己拥有巨大的AI算力需求，为什么不能自己设计专用芯片？
这就是OpenAI现在正在做的事情。
自己设计芯片，不一定意味着马上取代英伟达。
恰恰相反，短期内英伟达依然是AI算力市场的绝对核心。
但长期来看，OpenAI如果能够把芯片设计、制造、HBM、数据中心这些环节慢慢整合起来，那么AI产业链的利润分配可能会发生变化。
简单理解就是：
以前是“AI公司买芯片”。
以后可能变成“AI公司自己定义芯片，再让不同供应商来生产”。
这对于三星来说同样是Brothers, looking at today's news and market together is more important than just focusing on price ups and downs.
Yesterday's PPI data was hotter than expected, with August PPI month-on-month +0.4% and year-on-year 5.4%, higher than July's 4.8%, indicating upstream inflation pressure is clearly heating up, which also makes the market more cautious about the Fed's future policies.
Comparing with last month, July's CPI month-on-month was only +0.1%, but the market currently worries that rising energy prices in August will push inflation to rebound. So today's CPI is very critical; the focus is not simply on the number going up or down, but on whether inflation is heating up again.
This is also why after $BTC dropped to around 76400 last night, it recovered above 77000 today, and $ETH also returned to around 2460, but the market still doesn't dare to be fully optimistic. There is indeed buying support at low levels, but macro pressure has not disappeared.
📈 CPI below expectations: recovery has a chance to continue expanding.
📊 Meets expectations: likely to fluctuate first, watch the reactions of US bonds and stocks.
📉 Above expectations: yesterday's PPI negative impact may continue to ferment, be cautious of being crushed even during recovery.
So now don't blindly short, but also don't chase longs just because of the rebound. The real direction today still depends on how the market digests the CPI release.
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #BTC现货ETF连续流出 #10年期美债逼近5%关口，回购难阻收益率上行 The market is heading into another major inflation event, and $BTC is once again sitting at a critical decision zone. After the previous few U.S. CPI releases, Bitcoin showed a tendency to recover and push higher over the following sessions. That historical behavior gives the bulls a reason to stay alert—but this time, the setup is different. $BTC is currently trading around $76K–$77K, after losing the $78K area following hotter-than-expected PPI data. The immediate battle is now around $76K. 🔹Oracle and Adobe's earnings reports mark a watershed: the market no longer pays for AI stories, only rewarding companies that can turn AI into money.
Oracle Q1 revenue was 19.3 billion, up 30% year-over-year, cloud infrastructure up 121% to 7.4 billion, RPO at 664 billion, with 30 billion in new AI contracts added in a single quarter, delivering 300,000 GPUs, and shares rose 7% after hours. There are orders, revenue, and delivery; AI is contracts and cash flow.
Adobe Q3 revenue was 6.76 billion, up 13% year-over-year, AI ARR increased 150%, but shares fell 2% after hours. The problem lies in the scissors gap: AI is booming, but total revenue growth is still 13%. AI-native tools like Canva and Runway are eroding the moat; Adobe is maintaining subscriptions while adding AI, diluting growth quality.
The watershed: from "whether there is AI" to "whether AI has turned into money." Goldman Sachs says the era of "buying all AI" is over. Look at four points: whether orders can be fulfilled, whether AI revenue can drive overall growth, capital expenditure returns, and whether the moat is being eroded.
Oracle proves AI infrastructure monetization works; Adobe shows that AI alone is not enough. The winners are companies that can turn AI into orders, revenue, and profit.
$xORCL $xADBE
#财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121% $BTC is holding around $77K, but the market has no reason to rush yet. Friday's CPI could become the catalyst for the next big move. If the core CPI cools down around 0.2% MoM, pressure on BTC may ease and open the door for a recovery phase. Conversely, a 0.4% reading would signal hotter inflation than expected, potentially driving yields and the USD higher, while causing strong selling pressure on BTC. For now, patience in waiting for the data and price reaction remains a reasonable strategy.Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates next week? Tonight's 8:30 PM CPI report: possibly the most closely watched U.S. economic report in years. Federal Reserve policymakers—especially Governor Waller—have clearly signaled that the decision at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting will entirely depend on evidence of whether inflation continues to ease.
The median forecast shows that U.S. August CPI is expected to rise 0.4% month-over-month, higher than July's 0.1%; the year-over-year increase is expected to hold steady at 3.4%.
Core CPI for August, excluding food and energy, is expected to rise 0.2% month-over-month, with the year-over-year increase likely to decrease from 2.5% to 2.4%.
Due to the sharp rise in energy prices in August, an overall month-over-month increase in CPI is almost certain. Therefore, tonight the market's focus will likely remain on core CPI—especially on whether the impact of rising energy prices is spreading to more sectors.
If August core CPI month-over-month growth is 0.1% or lower, the Federal Reserve will most likely hold steady; if the increase reaches 0.3% or higher, a rate hike is almost certain. If core CPI rises by the expected 0.2%, uncertainty may persist.
The biggest tail risk is core inflation significantly exceeding expectations. If that happens, rate hike expectations for October and December, currently about 27% and 54% respectively, will be rapidly repriced, which would exert substantial pressure on the stock market.
Continuous investment
$BTC
$SPCX Tonight at 20:30, the US August CPI is the last macroeconomic data before the FOMC decision (at 02:00 Beijing time on 9/17) that could potentially rewrite the pricing of the September rate hike. The short-term core contradiction focuses on the "inflation reading—rate hike probability—real interest rate" chain, rather than a single narrative of risk aversion or supply and demand. September 11 Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis
Tonight is the last key inflation data before the September FOMC. The core CPI has a higher weight than the overall CPI and will directly price in the rate cut path and the real yield of U.S. Treasuries. Unless there is a significant surprise, BTC is unlikely to effectively break the 74–75k support, with 82–83k as strong resistance above. The final direction awaits FOMC confirmation. If CPI meets or slightly exceeds expectations, the impact will be limited. Given high oil prices, the probability of low expectations is relatively low, limiting downside space and making a rebound likely. 🥇 $XAU is falling with $BTC — nowhere to hide before CPI
• XAU −1.8%, around $4,300
• From the peak of $5,600 the metal is down 24%
• War, oil > $100 — classic “buy gold”
• But gold is falling with crypto
• Below MA7/MA25 on the daily — downtrend
🧠 The market fears not inflation, but the Fed’s reaction. Rate up → yields rise → gold loses to bonds. The same logic hits BTC. Metal and crypto fall together — on the same side of the rate. CPI will decide, rebound or drop.
⚠️ Gold in 2026 — a risky asset, just quieter. Hedge — cash$VVV: Momentum looks fragile — testing a small short Selling pressure is starting to show. Recent on-chain activity suggests roughly 68K VVV has been moved toward exchanges, with realized profits estimated around $510K. One large wallet still holds more than $620K in unrealized gains, so another wave of profit-taking could appear if liquidity dries up. I’m not interested in chasing longs here. Prefer opening a small short position first, then waiting for a deeper pullback before making the next Robinhood earned 4 billion in one month, while crypto people are still waiting to break even
28.6 million accounts, 384 billion USD in assets, this is a brokerage.
The data looks like this: In August, crypto trading volume rose 61% month-over-month, with net deposits of 4 billion.
Backing out the numbers, the annualized rate is equivalent to 14% of total assets, money is really flowing in.
Even more absurd: accounts only increased by 120,000 in one month, but year-over-year increased by 1.9 million.
This shows that old users are adding funds, not new retail investors rushing in.
Outsiders buy stocks and casually buy some crypto, that's how the money comes in.
We watch K-lines every day, but they treat it as small change allocation.
This wave of growth has nothing to do with crypto prices, it’s related to the brokerage app.
Next month, I will focus on one number: whether crypto trading volume can maintain a 61% month-over-month increase.
If it falls back to single digits, it means this wave is just a spillover from the stock market.
Long-term holders are still holding positions, while others are dollar-cost averaging.
#Robinhood首次担任IPO承销商 $ZEC After 90,000 people were liquidated, has the leverage washout for BTC, XRP, and DOGE finished?
#PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI will set the direction
In the past 24 hours, over 90,000 people across the network were liquidated, with long positions collapsing in waves — the question is, has this round of leverage been fully cleaned out?
#BTC spot ETF continuous outflows
$BTC fluctuated around 77,000, $XRP dropped to about 1.35, down about 4.7% in 24 hours, and $DOGE was even worse, falling over 6% close to 0.08. Among these three, the higher the leverage concentration and the sharper the previous rise, the harsher the forced liquidations, with DOGE and XRP taking the brunt.
Liquidation essentially helps the market deleverage: forced liquidation of long positions means the weakest hands are passively exiting. To confirm the washout, look for two signs — funding rates falling close to zero, with no one willing to pay to chase longs; and no volume increase on further dips, indicating all forced liquidations have occurred. Currently, BTC funding rate has dropped to about +0.005%, and XRP and DOGE have also triggered panic volumes, bringing the washout closer, just waiting for tonight's CPI final twitch.
If tonight's CPI is hotter than expected, BTC, XRP, and $DOGE may face another wave of forced liquidations, which would be the true bottom volume; if it cools down, the rebound after leverage clearing will be mild, as there will be no forced liquidation pressure overhead. Liquidation is not a bad thing; it's the incomplete washout that is painful.LAPTOP's initial launch plummeted nearly 99%, with the project team attributing the cause to sniper bots and overly thin initial liquidity. This explanation might be correct, but it also exposes the most absurd scene in Meme issuance: the market cap displayed on the screen is often just a mathematical illusion.
LAPTOP once showed a market cap of about $110 billion, which does not mean that much capital was actually bought in. When the liquidity pool is too shallow, a small amount of trading can push the marginal price extremely high, and multiplying this price by the total token quantity creates a frightening "valuation." When the first batch of sell orders comes in, the price naturally falls like an elevator cable snapping.
So the problem cannot be blamed solely on bots. Who decided to open with such a thin pool? Who knows the initial token distribution? Why is the project willing to let an easily distorted price become promotional material? These all belong to issuance design.
The Meme market hasn't suddenly worsened because of this crash; it just laid bare a long-existing truth: attention can instantly create price, but it cannot create support.
Next time you see a launch myth with a hundred-billion market cap, don't get excited first. Look at how much money is actually in the pool—that's the real thing willing to catch you.
#LAPTOP首发跌近99%，Meme市场争议升温 Today marks the 98th day of holding $OKB long-term.
The August PPI was just released, and they said they will raise interest rates again, but the old view remains that there will be no rate hike at least in September and October this time.
Using rate hikes to fight inflation is like treating a headache by curing the foot, or treating foot pain by curing the head. You say your athlete's foot itches so much it can make your head dizzy, but making your head dizzy won't stop the athlete's foot from itching.
However, if your athlete's foot keeps getting worse, shouldn't you treat the foot instead of just making your head dizzy and killing the whole person? What is the remedy for athlete's foot?
The supply is blocked, stuck at Hormuz. The plan is to clear Hormuz, and Trump should ideally finish this before the election, which officially starts on November 3rd. If it really can't be cleared, and the report can't be submitted, then the election results will be a bit worse, but you say the foot itches too much, it's unbearable, so I want to make the head dizzy directly, of course, that's possible.
But should it be done? If your inflation is severe, should the supply shortage problem be solved by raising interest rates? Rate hikes suppress demand-side problems, should supply-side problems be solved through the demand side?
You say oil prices have risen, and to solve the price increase problem, you tell everyone not to eat# so the price can come down. Is that how it works? If everyone eats less and demand drops, of course prices can come down, but is that right? So at least I think there will be no rate hike in September and October this time. One is that the wrong prescription was given, treating the headache by curing the foot. The other is the upcoming election; we'll see about later. $BTC $ETH #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #CLARITY法案9月15日闯关，60票成关键
September 15 is not the "passage day" for the CLARITY Act, but the "deadline." However, what really blocks it is not the 60-vote threshold, but Trump's $1.4 billion crypto income.
What is the basis? The Republicans have 53 seats, but Galaxy Research analyzes that Rand Paul and Josh Hawley might abstain for procedural reasons, meaning up to 9 Democrats need to cross party lines to support it. Currently, only Gallego and Alsobrooks publicly support it, which is far from enough.
Where is it stuck? Ethics provisions. The new 630-page text is still enforced by the Department of Justice's ethics restrictions. Democrats demand that state attorneys general share enforcement power and want to extend the sunset clause beyond 2029. Alsobrooks declared: without stricter wording, she will not vote in favor. Trump earned over $1.4 billion from crypto business last year, and having his DOJ enforce the clause "prohibiting the president from profiting from crypto" is unacceptable to Democrats.
Prediction markets have already set the passage probability at 10%-14%. Coinbase CEO said that regardless of the vote outcome, the SEC and CFTC will continue to advance rulemaking. If it doesn't pass on September 15, crypto regulation won't stop; it will just shift from "Congressional legislation" to "agency rules"—the latter easier for the next administration to overturn. Keep an eye on September 15, but don't bet on it passing. What was really worth watching in the market last night wasn't how much BTC fell, but that the cost of capital went up again.
Brent crude surged 6.3% to $107.63, the 10-year US Treasury yield neared 5%, and the probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 49% to 71.3%. Meanwhile, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $282.7 million.
Many people's first reaction: institutions are running away.
I don't see it that way.
#PPIHotCPINext #OracleAICloudUp121% #BTCSpotETFOutflows At first, there was absolute conviction. Then came the market pressure, hesitation, and eventually getting chopped up by one “technical expert” after another. The more I look at it, the more I realize that charts, patterns, structures, and trend lines can only explain so much. Sometimes, one sentence from Trump can completely destroy hours of technical analysis. A lot of these so-called analysts talk about support, resistance, market structure, and trend reversals, but when the market suddenly cPONS at $0.65, do you dare to chase?
First, look at the surface: ATH retraced 33%, range-bound consolidation, explosive volume, leveraged funds rushing in wildly.
On September 5th, it surged to 0.97, then crashed all the way down to 0.53, now bounced back to 0.65. 24-hour trading volume is $170 million, turnover rate ridiculously high. OK perpetual and Binance perpetual contracts launched one after another, OI reached 183 million, longs and shorts nearly balanced with a slight bearish bias.
First thing: The business is really strong, but the price has already overdrawn the "strongest" in advance.
PONS is not air. It is the leading token issuance platform on Robinhood Chain; anyone can issue tokens for 0.0005 ETH, with a 1% trading fee, 80% of which the protocol uses to buy back and burn PONS. The original supply of 1 billion has already burned 30%, leaving only 695-712 million in circulation.
Daily fees once reached $5.9 million, with Uniswap Labs personally buying in.
Good business does not mean the current buying price is good. 0.65 is only a 33% retracement from ATH.
Second thing: Uniswap buying in is not a talisman, but a temporary measure of "opponent turning teammate."
Uniswap Labs bought PONS, officially stating "long-term alignment." But previously, Uniswap launched a zero-fee competitor Pools.trade on the same chain, clearly aiming to snatch the token issuance platform business.
Now buying chips the other way around, what does it mean? If you can't beat them, join them, or bind you first then slowly erode.
PONS's moat is only one: real fees → buyback and burn → supply contraction. But this flywheel depends on a two-month-old new L2; any variable change in gas policy, competing issuance platforms, or Meme hype can cause fees to collapse.
Third thing: September 29th is PONS's "earnings day."
The current on-chain activity is largely built on "free Gas + token issuance carnival." Robinhood Wallet's Gas subsidy ends on September 29th.
Once the subsidy stops, token issuance density, fees, and buyback strength will be truly tested.
If daily fees can still maintain at million-dollar level → buybacks continue, 0.50-0.60 is a mid-term opportunity
If daily token issuance halves → flywheel slows, price re-prices
Long-short showdown, you decide.
On one side:
Real revenue, real burn, 30% supply burned
Uniswap buying in, Binance/OKX perpetuals launched
Daily fees once reached $5.9 million, weekly fees surpassing Pump.fun
Institutional addresses continuously accumulating
On the other side:
September 29th Gas subsidy expires, the biggest fundamental countdown
Token has almost no governance rights, buyback is not an immutable contract rule
OI 183 million, long-short balanced with slight bearish bias, liquidations mainly on longs
Macro PPI hot, oil at 100, US bonds at 5%, risk appetite suppressed
Trading strategy
Plan A: High sell low buy within range
Range 0.53-0.67
Sell/try short at 0.65-0.67, targets 0.60/0.55, stop loss above 0.73
Light buy at 0.53-0.56, stop loss below 0.50
Plan B: Wait for structure, no direction guessing
Long condition: 4H holds above 0.67 and recovers 0.73, BTC holds 76k → targets 0.80/0.97
Short condition: 4H close below 0.625, failed pullback then short → targets 0.55→0.38
Before conditions appear, stay out or hold minimal position; that's professionalism, not cowardice
Plan C: Mid-term thematic position
Open mid-term long at 0.65, average odds
More reasonable: stagger buys at 0.58/0.52/0.40 instead of all-in at once
The real mid-term buy point likely comes after the subsidy ends and a second sell-off
Today's CPI: if hot, altcoins continue to kill valuations; if cold, it extends the life of the 0.65 rebound
September 15-16 FOMC: after rate hike, watch if risk appetite clears out at once
September 29 Gas subsidy ends: this is PONS's earnings day; if daily fees halve, re-pricing occurs; only if it holds can $1 be discussed
PONS's business is real, but your buying point might be false—
99% of people rush in seeing "Uniswap buying + Binance perpetuals," resulting in 0.65 becoming a short-term ceiling.
The day 0.625 breaks, you'll realize:
It's not that PONS is bad, but you mistook "the story is still alive" for "the price is cheap."
At 0.65, do you dare to chase?
$BTC $ETH $PONS #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 $CL Crude oil's rally has peaked
Short positions have been liquidated, bulls are starting to take profits and exit, short-term pullback.
Nearly 25 million U of short positions liquidated in 24 hours, the rise was indeed fierce.
But now funds are withdrawing, net outflows from 5 minutes to 8 hours.
In the last hour, long positions have started to be liquidated, indicating bulls can't hold.
After the surge, those who needed to exit are exiting.
Short-term outlook is a pullback, don't chase longs. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 The market is now focused not on whether CPI is high or low, but on whether core inflation can hold that line.
After PPI, CPI becomes the last key test before the Fed's decision in September. The market is still trading the possibility of a rate hike, with the probability hovering around 60%, but this precisely indicates that neither bulls nor bears have absolute confidence.
What really matters is the month-on-month core CPI.
If core CPI ≤ 0.1%:
It indicates that inflationary pressure continues to ease, the market may lower rate hike expectations, the dollar and US Treasury yields will be under pressure, and BTC has a chance to rebound.
If core CPI reaches 0.3% or higher:
It means price pressures are heating up again, rate hike expectations may further strengthen, and risk assets will face pressure.
The market expectation value of 0.2% is actually the most critical battleground.
Currently, BTC has returned to around $78,000, repeatedly failing to break through $80,000, and the market is waiting for macro catalysts.
Strong inflation data may have already been priced in;
Weak data releases may also trigger profit-taking.
So CPI truly determines not just BTC's rise or fall.
It determines whether the market will trade "liquidity improvement" or continue to trade "high interest rate pressure" in the coming months.
The best strategy now is not to bet on the answer in advance.
But to wait for the data release and see which direction the funds choose.
Because in macro trading, news is only a catalyst; capital flow is the final answer.$BTC #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向