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Last year's #1011 was a devastating blow for many people—a collective collapse of altcoins that looked like a massive exit scam scene.
Afterwards, many people quit the space outright, and among those who stayed, a large number vowed never to touch altcoins again.
But looking back now, those strong coins that held on have fully recovered their losses, some rising 5 to 6 times from the bottom.
What’s most worth pondering here isn’t "how much was missed," but how panic is priced:
During the crash, everyone sold off using the same logic, and the price was filled with emotion rather than value. So the same coin can be tagged with completely different prices in fear versus calm.
The word "crisis" itself holds the answer—there is opportunity within danger.
Of course, the premise is that you have to survive until that day, not be forced out at the lowest point. 🙏AAVE broke through the 153 historical platform, how to trade this position
Today we discuss AAVE strategy, starting with the structure
Current price is 156, the upper boundary of the 60-period range is 156, today's daily K candle directly hit the ceiling
Volume is the key signal, 4-hour volume rose from 7852 to 19684, nearly 1.5 times increase
Don't chase on volume surge without price increase, only consider when volume breaks the platform
So my judgment is this wave is a volume breakout, not a pump and dump
Enter after confirmation, do not trade the first candle
Lightly test long near 153 on pullback, 10% position, stop loss below 149
If it breaks, it means the breakout is fake
Target first look at 165, risk-reward ratio about 1 to 2.5
If volume surges and directly breaks through 156.65 resistance, don't chase on pullback, wait for stabilization and confirmation
Keep position under 30%, this asset's fee rate is capped at 0.0077%, bulls are already paying
Breakouts are for testing and error, not for heavy positions
$AAVE $BTC #DeFi #strategy#USDT.D confirmed a bullish divergence on the daily chart.
This usually means capital is flowing back into stablecoins, and the market may face a broader correction.
But don't expect a new low.I've been holding a short position on big coin $BTC for two days now,
let me share my feelings.
First, when big coin dropped below 83000,
the market was quite pessimistic,
including me.
Some even expected a pullback to 72000,
so I originally planned to short on a rebound at 85000,
I posted about this earlier.
Because I was anxious, I entered the short at 84000.
This caused a poor entry point.
I held the position yesterday, and last night it rebounded to 85250,
while second coin $ETH rebounded even more ridiculously to 2745.
At that moment, my heart was really bleeding,
fortunately, it soon crashed down.
Last night the crash bottomed at 83100,
I had my hand on the close position button at this level,
after thinking for a while,
I decided to hold on.
For this pullback,
my target is at least around 80000,
and further down I can see 76000.
What do you guys think? Check my pinned post. The profits of long-term Bitcoin holders have dropped from nearly 350% in December 2024 to about 72% $BTC
This indicates that at the end of 2024, long-term holders saw Bitcoin rise very high and sold in large quantities, earning nearly 3.5 times (350%) on average when selling, with heavy distribution, like "chip distribution" $ETH
But now, when they sell, they only earn a little over 70% (72%) on average, with much smaller profits, and the enthusiasm for selling has clearly cooled down
This level is more like the situation in previous bear markets, rather than the frenzy of cashing out at the peak of a bull market
This shift is important because it shows the market is no longer experiencing the same degree of profit-taking seen in the stronger distribution phase of the last cycle, and it also indicates the market environment has moved far away from peak distribution intensity $SOL
Long-term Bitcoin holders have moved out of the "crazy high-level selling" phase, and selling pressure is not as strong
They are more willing to hold on and wait to sell at higher prices, rather than rushing to cash out Policy-wise, "negative factors fully priced in" instead act as a catalyst: The CLARITY Act failed to reach the 60-vote threshold on September 16, but the market interpreted this as "short-term release of regulatory uncertainty," leading to a rebound in risk appetite. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Hougan declared the "crypto winter" over and the beginning of a "crypto spring." Fed rate hike fully priced in: After the Fed raised rates by 25bp on September 17, the market shifted from "fear and uncertainty" to "pricing in a known environment," with BTC as a risk asset being repriced. Improved liquidity: The spot BTC ETF saw net inflows for 8 consecutive trading days totaling $2.8 billion; open interest in futures contracts increased 8.8% over the past 7 days to $55.7 billion (92nd percentile over 90 days), indicating traders are actively leveraging in rather than being passively squeezed. Technical signals turn bullish: BTC closed above the 50-week moving average on the weekly chart for the first time in about 10 months. CoinMarketCap's head of research believes this "changes the narrative"—market focus shifts from "where is the bottom" to "whether a new bull market has begun." The Fear & Greed Index rose to 77, entering the "greed" zone. $BTC #ETH short positions surged 8,300% in two weeks, hitting the highest level since June 2022, which is indeed astonishing.
However, large short positions on Bitfinex are not necessarily directional bets.
They could be hedges, arbitrage, or market makers' neutral positions.
Interpreting these positions directly as "someone knows insider information" overlooks the composition and motives of exchange users.
Large short positions do not necessarily mean a price drop, nor do they necessarily mean a short squeeze; it depends on which way the price moves first.Rate hikes haven't crashed BTC; Micron is the key to the market
In this round of Federal Reserve rate hikes, BTC did not weaken, rising to 87,000 before pulling back, currently oscillating between 84,000 and 85,000.
The core reason is that negative factors were fully priced in advance, combined with nearly $1 billion net inflow into BTC ETFs in a single day, with institutions providing long-term support. The market resilience is very strong and is no longer dominated by retail sentiment.
US consumer data remains strong, inflation cooling is difficult, and the Fed still holds hawkish expectations. What truly influences the market direction now is not the rate hike, but Micron's earnings report.
Whether AI storage demand can translate into profits directly determines the sentiment of tech stocks and the crypto market. If earnings exceed expectations, the market will warm up; if performance disappoints, it will likely trigger a correlated pullback.
Trading strategy: Do not chase highs, hold the 83,000–84,000 support, wait quietly for Micron's earnings report to land, then decide the next direction.
⚠️ Market review only, not investment advice #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ 🔥Narrow-range tug-of-war is the most patience-testing; a real breakout is actually cleaner.
Mainstream coins have been consolidating sideways for the sixth day, with bulls and bears both holding their cards close. $ETH oscillates around 2635, facing selling pressure at 2672 above and support at 2608 below. I hold a long position at 2648, reducing half on the rally and adding back on the pullback to the moving average, continuing to hold.
BTC fluctuates between 84000 and 86000, with both long chasers and short sellers getting hit. SOL is running an independent trend, up 3% to 117; the quick rise carries high pullback risk, so I’m just watching, not trading.
Frequent direction changes are the worst during consolidation; back-and-forth trades easily get eaten by slippage. At this stage, no new positions are added; existing longs are held. Until the range breaks, intraday moves are just tests.
👉 Do you predict a breakout upwards or downwards first?
⚠️ Market observation only, not investment advice #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ Don't treat Ethereum as just a speculative trading asset. At its core, it is a settlement layer. The price may surge and plunge, but the L2 ecosystem is continuously encroaching on traditional finance's territory. Market trends are just the surface; the real battle is in infrastructure competition. $ETH 最後來從消息面，還有後續要觀察哪些，來跟大家做個結尾。 資金面：這一週美國現貨 ETF 的買盤其實很強。週一到週四，比特幣、以太、Solana、XRP、Zcash 這幾類現貨 ETF 加起來大約吸了 30.4 億美元，其中比特幣大約 22.5 億、以太大約 6 億。比特幣 ETF 到 9 月 24 日連續六個交易日流入，但每天的金額已經連三天在降，從週一大約 9.99 億，降到週四大約 1.9 億。9 月 25 日（週五）的數字目前還沒完整落定：比特幣跟以太都還有貝萊德那檔沒回報；Solana 初步約 8,670 萬，也還有一檔沒回報。這些都先當參考，不硬湊。 合約面：截至昨晚 9 點半的 24 小時，全網爆倉大約 3 億美元，多單 1.21 億、空單 1.8 億，這次是空單被爆的比較多，跟山寨往上軋空有關。OKX 永續資金費率，比特幣、以太、Solana 小幅偏正，狗狗、瑞波在 0.01% 的基本水位，整體沒有過熱。Solana 的未平倉量一天多增加約八趴，是這幾個幣裡面槓桿堆最快的。 總經面：昨晚美股收紅，道瓊漲大約 0.9%、標普漲大約 0.5%，主要是伊朗提出結束戰爭的方案，油A surge right after closing a position—Is this market movement just bizarre, or is the position too crowded? Have you ever experienced the moment of "selling at the lowest point"? When I saw the complaints about $AKE $ZEC $ONE, my first reaction wasn’t laughter but alertness. When someone closes a position and the price immediately rallies, it might seem like a matter of luck on the surface, but it often indicates one thing: chips have been exchanged within an extremely narrow range, selling pressure has been absorbed, and the trigger point came very suddenly. What’s truly worth noting in this post isn’t the grievance but the three assets mentioned alongside three macro tags: the Federal Reserve restarting rate hike discussions, BTC still showing resilience, and rising long-term US Treasury yields. The simultaneous occurrence of these three factors is itself a live event of repricing. Let’s first look at the transmission path. When long-term yields rise, it usually means financing costs become more expensive and risk appetite is suppressed. But BTC didn’t crash immediately, indicating the market isn’t trading on the old logic of "rate hikes equal bearishness" but rather on "who can withstand pressure better." When US Treasury yields rise, some funds actually seek non-sovereign, non-credit assets for hedging. This is the bullish line. But don’t get excited too soon. If the rate increase is due to inflation expectations rising again rather than strong growth, altcoins will be hit first. The rebound of assets like $AKE $ZEC $ONE is likely just short covering and pulses under low liquidity, not the start of a trend. ZEC has a privacy narrative, ONE has a scaling concept, and AKE leans more toward small-cap elasticity; their common point is: light market caps $QNT suddenly surged 39%, what exactly is the market rushing for this time?
QNT really has something going on this round. On September 24, it surged to $90.9, with a single-day trading volume of about $29 million, significantly higher than the previous day's $10.6 million. The price jumped from around $70 to above $90 in just two days.
The catalyst is indeed solid: The Clearing House selected Quant as the interoperability layer for the US banks' tokenized deposit network, connecting traditional payment systems like RTP and CHIPS, expected to open in the first half of 2027.
But there is a key detail here. From September 16 to 23, QNT's on-chain active addresses had already noticeably increased, reaching 2,064 on the 24th, indicating that the capital and attention were not entirely spontaneous. Meanwhile, Binance had previously delisted the QNT/USDC spot and margin trading pairs, making the market liquidity structure somewhat twisted.
I think this is the "institutional tokenization narrative starting to be priced in early." Whether it can hold above $90 is the key. If the trading volume continues to expand and on-chain activity persists, this story might shift from speculation on expectations to speculation on actual implementation.From the perspective of an ordinary user, the threshold for "running your own Ethereum node" is visibly lowering.
Vitalik said: now it can sync in half a day, and with aggressive configuration, disk usage is compressed to under 0.5TB.
A few years ago, the reality was that syncing took several days and hard drives had to start at TB scale, causing most people to try once and give up.
Two things are driving this change: one is EIP-4444, which allows nodes to no longer carry the entire historical data, and the other is the client teams' continuous refinement of snapshot syncing, with further optimizations coming in Glamsterdam.
Why does this matter: when the cost of "validation" is low enough for ordinary people to bear, only then do you have the right not to entrust your asset security entirely to third parties.
Technological progress will ultimately transform the way trust is established.$BTC The 30-minute chart resumed an upward trend after the pullback on the 16th, confirming the end of last week's trend after September 24 (the trend ended perfectly; due to too many strokes in the chart, the upward trend is described directly with line segments, and the red straight line roughly depicts the price range of the central zone). This ID has mentioned in previous posts that after the end of the 30-minute upward trend, it entered a consolidation phase that will form a larger daily-level central zone. In the daily candlesticks, it is very clear that the bars for the following four consecutive days are all contained within the 21-day range. In fact, even a daily-level top fractal has not yet formed. Therefore, it is uncertain whether the move starting from 75,000 will continue to break the high of 87,395.67 or directly enter a pullback phase. Based on the above analysis, the possibilities are:
First, continue the daily-level upward stroke, with resistance at the previous high.
Second, enter a daily-level pullback phase, with key support at 82,874.93. If this level is broken, attention will be paid to the appearance of a daily-level minor divergence (entry point).This is my brother's heartfelt confession! Got beaten up
Started with 100 USD, target 100,000. Worked hard for a month, account number: -30.
Here's how the script collapsed — shorted ZEC, got hit; shorted ETH, got hit; shorted some altcoins, kept getting hit. At the worst, holding more than a dozen short positions, bulls kept crushing wave after wave, all I could do was keep hitting stop loss.
At first, I was stubborn: "This is just a pullback, hold on and it will come down." Only at the end did I realize, it’s not that the market gives no way out, but that I was using the wrong script — applying bear market thinking in a bull market, everything went wrong.
This month's highest return hit 80%, now that number makes my eyes hurt. Three months of profits wiped out in a week, the principal is starting to show red alerts. Especially that ZEC trade, if I had admitted my mistake earlier, it wouldn’t have hurt this badly. Later, I made a little money going long, but all went to fill the holes from the short positions, robbing Peter to pay Paul.
What’s worse, I didn’t learn my lesson and went to short ONE again.
The market gave the harshest lesson: you think it should fall, but it stubbornly rises to show you.
But I’m still here, the table is still on. The challenge from 100 to 100,000 is not canceled, just changing tactics — survive first, then talk about making money. In crazy markets, staying at the table itself is a skill. $ETH #OKX星球话题来啦 My biggest change as a crypto trader:
I stopped judging myself by one trade.
A winner can be badly managed.
A loser can be perfectly executed.
Now I judge the process:
Did I follow my plan?
Did I manage risk?
Did I let emotions take over?
That's what I review after BTC or SOL trades.
What do you look at when reviewing a trade?I learned this from trading SOL:
When I feel like I MUST enter, that's usually when I should slow down.
FOMO makes every candle look important.
So now I step back and ask:
Would I still take this trade if price hadn't just moved?
If the answer is no, I wait.
How do you catch yourself before FOMO takes over?Something BTC taught me:
A trade can be technically correct and still be a bad trade if the risk is too big.
I care less about being right on every move now.
I care more about making sure one wrong trade can't damage my whole week.
Risk first. Trade second.
What changed your view on risk?Let's take a look at Solana. The current price is about 121.4. Waking up, it looks pretty much the same as last night, and the outlook hasn't changed much. On the 1-hour chart, the highest point reached around 122.4 early this morning, still close to this week's high, no further surge upward, and no obvious drop yet. The operation remains the same: at this position, Solana can be considered for a short test. The stop loss remains at 140, because around 140 is the resistance we've been talking about; yesterday I mentioned 180 as a wider approach, but that K-line chart looks really bad, so I still focus on 140. To be clear, a short test means a small position trial, not firing all your bullets at once. The replenishment points have been shared before, as usual, no need to add new points on the fly; if the price hasn't reached your set position, don't add randomly. As for taking profit, it depends on the individual. Some want to take a small portion and exit, others want to hold longer, both are fine, but the stop loss must be set first and strictly enforced. Don't move the stop loss up just because you see it bounce again; that's the easiest way to get into trouble. For long positions, the bottom of the range near 100 is just a reference; this current position is not a place to go long. On the capital side, the latest ETF settlement is still September 24; the US spot Solana ETF net inflow is about 32.8 million USD, and from Monday to Thursday this week, it totaled about 100 million USD. September 25My trading journal taught me something charts never did:
A lot of my bad trades weren't bad setups.
They were good setups taken at the wrong time.
FOMO.
Impatience.
Trying to make back a loss.
Now I review my decisions, not just my P&L.
Do you keep a trading journal?Let's take a look at the Ethereum part. The current price is about 2,684. After sleeping, Ethereum looks similar to Bitcoin, roughly ranging between 2,670 and 2,740 in the past 24 hours, without breaking out in any new direction. The outlook hasn't changed. We're still observing Ethereum here, so don't act rashly. The pre-set long order points have been shared before, which is around 2,400 to 2,500. If the price returns there, the pre-set orders will execute by themselves; set your stop loss accordingly; if it doesn't return, just wait, no need to rush or chase. It is highly correlated with Bitcoin; when the market doesn't show a clear trend, Ethereum usually won't move independently. The biggest risk at times like this is impatience—seeing altcoins moving and wanting to do something with Ethereum as well. If the position isn't right, entering is just guessing the direction. Weekend liquidity is poor, with many spikes, so it's even less suitable to open positions randomly in the middle. Take profits according to your own strategy, but always set your stop loss properly; don't get emotional. On the fundamentals side, the latest ETF confirmation was on September 24. The US spot Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of about 66 million USD, marking the fifth consecutive trading day of inflows. From Monday to Thursday this week, Ethereum ETFs collectively attracted about 600 million USD, so the support is actually not bad. The numbers for September 25 are not fully out yet; BlackRock's fund hasn't reported, so let's not force conclusions. Regarding contracts, on OKX, the Ethereum perpetual funding rate is slightly positive, a normal level; open interest is slightly less than last night, and leverage has slightly decreased. As of last night's 24 hours, Ethereum short positions wereCostco's Q4 revenue reached $95.7 billion, up 11% year-over-year, with profits exceeding expectations. Comparable sales increased by 6.7%, membership fee income rose 7%, and the renewal rate remains the highest globally. However, the stock price first rose 2.4% then fell back, as growth mainly relied on gasoline and travel, while home goods and electronics were average, and paid membership growth was below expectations. Membership lock-in is the core story; the slowdown in membership growth is more noteworthy than revenue exceeding expectations.
Next, watch Micron $MU, which will report earnings in the early hours of October 1 Beijing time. AI servers are competing for HBM, DRAM contract prices are still rising, and Goldman Sachs expects revenue of $51.9 billion and EPS of $32.54, both above consensus. But the stock price has already risen 280% this year, with expectations extremely high, so any slight miss could trigger a sell-off. China's ChangXin Memory has mass-produced its fifth-generation process, with LPDDR5X reaching world-class levels, changing the long-term supply landscape.
For $BTC, Costco's earnings report has no direct impact, but it is a thermometer of U.S. consumer sentiment—consumption hasn't collapsed, inflation is unlikely to fall quickly, and the Federal Reserve's expectation of a rate hike in October remains. BTC is stuck near 84,000, surged to 87,000 last week but fell back; without easing macro conditions, it is hard for BTC to have an independent rally. First, see if Micron can support the AI hardware sector.
#财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 Let's take a look at Bitcoin. The current price is about 83,850. Waking up, Bitcoin looks about the same as yesterday, fluctuating in a small range between 83,700 and 84,100 at night, still some distance from this week's high near 87,000. The outlook hasn't changed much. On the Bitcoin side, we are still observing and should not act rashly. Without any special signals, don't open positions just for the sake of having trades. The big picture remains the same: to say this rally is over, we need to see a real break below 74,000. Before that, I won't easily turn bearish; don't chase shorts recklessly. For longs, the pre-set entry points have been shared before, which are around 78,000 or 80,000. If the price returns there, the pre-set orders will execute by themselves, and stop losses should be set accordingly; if it doesn't return, just stay out and wait, don't chase. The advantage of pre-set orders is that you don't have to constantly watch the market and won't impulsively trade just because of a single candlestick. Weekend liquidity is poorer, and the chance of spikes is higher, so it's even less suitable to open trades randomly in the middle. Take profits according to your own strategy, but always set stop losses properly and don't get greedy. On the chip front, the latest ETF settlement date is September 24. The US spot Bitcoin ETF net inflow is about 190 million USD, marking the sixth consecutive trading day of inflows, totaling about 2.8 billion USD over six days. However, the daily inflow amount has been declining for three consecutive days, dropping from about 999 million on Monday to 190 million on Thursday, indicating a cooling buying interest. September ETH surged from 2700 to 2742 but then dropped back to 2683, with volume unable to keep up, indicating that the bulls lack genuine buying support. It looks more like a holiday liquidity-driven pump to lure buyers. Once it breaks down, 2700 will turn from support into resistance, with dense trapped positions above, causing any rebound to be crushed—this is a classic bull trap structure.
The impact on the crypto market has three layers:
First, on the sentiment level, holiday liquidity is naturally thin, and such fake breakouts severely damage short-term confidence, easily triggering chain stop-losses and amplifying volatility.
Second, on the structural level, 2650-2660 is a key support zone below; if it holds, there is still room for a rebound and position reduction. But if it breaks down effectively, the short-term trend worsens, and one should stop hoping for a V-shaped recovery.
Third, on the capital level, ETH weakness often drags down altcoins, especially those relying on the ETH ecosystem narrative, increasing the risk of catch-up declines. Conversely, if BTC can hold steady and ETH stabilizes above 2650, capital may continue rotating into utility tokens with real use cases rather than returning to pure sentiment-driven speculation.
In terms of trading: before firmly holding above 2700, treat all rebounds as potential traps; those trapped at high levels should neither hold nor add positions; if it breaks below 2650, stop losses should be executed. The market is brutal, but survival means there will be a next round. Happy Mid-Autumn Festival, and may you exit your positions soon.BTC is now fluctuating around 84,000. My response is very simple:
1. If it falls below 80,000 again, it means this rebound might fail. I will start closing long positions and turn bearish, not fighting the market.
2. If it doesn’t give enough chance to switch and quickly surges to 90,000 in a short time, I will consider placing some defensive short positions between 89,000 and 95,000 to hedge against pullback risk. If it effectively holds above 100,000, the short logic fails, and I will admit my mistake and exit.
3. If BTC doesn’t rise straight up but oscillates fully and repeatedly between 80,000 and 100,000, washing out chips thoroughly, then the defensive position can be moved up to 105,000–115,000.
I don’t predict exactly how BTC will move, just prepare three scenarios in advance. When the price hits the point, I execute; if conditions fail, I retreat. I can play small trades in between, opening small positions for fun, but large positions must be controlled well. The market can be guessed wrong, but position size must not get out of control. Always losing money, what to do?_0926 8:46
Losing money is normal; it depends on how you lose, which determines whether you can make money in the future.
No one in this world can make money from the trading market without paying a penny in tuition fees, not even geniuses.
💌 Always losing, never made a profit
If you haven't even doubled your principal and have already lost everything,
a. It means your trading system has problems and needs to be completely overhauled;
b. Temporarily do not open positions, if you must, open at most 1u without leverage, observe and learn first;
c. Learn to read candlesticks first, do not look at any indicators.
If you haven't made money for several months, half a year, or a year, this market might not be suitable for you, and you should consider quitting.
If you really encounter this situation, the only investment advice is: regularly invest in S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 stop-loss funds. This is the only way you can make money, no other options.
💌 Mostly making money, occasionally liquidated
You have made profits before, even multiplied several times, but eventually got liquidated. This means the trading system is generally fine, the problem lies in position management, requiring more rationality and restraint.
a. Cut margin at least by half, or even more
Previously, a position opened with 20x leverage and 100u, now open at most 50u;
b. Stop loss earlier
Set stop loss closer, for example, if previously set at -100u loss, now change to -50u; and avoid buying impulsively.
💌 Never gamble on luck at any time, it's a guaranteed loss!Bears interpret the worst news as good news
Bulls interpret the best news as bad news
From September to December 2025, there were three consecutive interest rate cuts, Trump issued currency, and everyone expected an era of massive liquidity injection,
That's the peak
This round's MSTR almost blew up, the last round's FTX blew up, 3AC blew up, that's the bottom
On the contrary, those events in the middle of the market that are not so bullish or bearish only have limited impact on short-term fluctuations.
What about the election, Japan's rate hike causing carry trade rewind, Europe's rate hike, Germany selling $BTC, BTC, Mt. Gox's stolen BTC returned to users $ETH,
All irrelevant noise.
Similar statements say to avoid risk ahead of this midterm election, but risk was already avoided in advance, and prices had long been priced in.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？
#稳定币新规推进，支付结算加速落地 The longer you stay on-chain, the more you realize one thing: regularly changing wallets and properly saving your mnemonic phrases are not redundant actions, but the most basic protection for yourself. Many assets are still stuck in old addresses. Some people have used wallets like Magic Eden, Xverse, etc., and still have their mnemonic phrases, but many platforms no longer support ordinals assets, and the assets haven't been moved. At this point, batch organization becomes very important. UniSat's UTXO management tool can be used to batch transfer assets in wallets, currently supporting Runes, Alkanes, and others (rare satoshis are not supported yet). The general operation path is: import the old wallet's mnemonic phrase into UniSat, then transfer the assets to a new address. When the market is hot, everyone is busy trading; when it's cold, it's even more important to organize your underlying assets properly. #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒
Costco's earnings report proves consumption hasn't collapsed, but it's not booming either. The real highlight is next week’s Micron—another "beat expectations," but possibly a completely different story.
Costco Q4 revenue was $95.7 billion, up 11.1% year-over-year, beating expectations; EPS was $6.75, also beating expectations. Same-store sales rose 9.4%, and digital sales increased 19.5%. The stock price rose slightly by 0.26% during trading, hovering around $898.
Micron takes the baton after market close on September 30. The market expects Q4 revenue of about $51.2 billion, a staggering 352% year-over-year increase; Non-GAAP EPS around $31. The company’s own guidance is $49-51 billion, with market expectations already above the guidance.
But the real risk lies in the guidance. If Q4 revenue only hits the midpoint of $50 billion, it will be below recent expectations. The market focus has shifted to the outlook for Q1 of fiscal 2027—whether HBM4 customer validation can convert into orders, and how long the high prices for server DRAM can hold, are the key factors determining the stock price.
Costco uses consumer data to prove the U.S. economy hasn’t collapsed; Micron needs to prove whether the high prices for AI storage can continue. The same "beat expectations," one is on defense, the other on offense. Watch Micron’s next quarter guidance—that’s the next chapter in the AI hardware story.First, clarify a premise: the essence of rebalancing is "disciplined selling high and buying low".
The biggest risk in a crypto asset portfolio is not choosing the wrong assets, but forgetting to reduce positions when greedy and being afraid to add when fearful. The value of rebalancing rules is to turn these two actions from "subjective judgment" into "mechanical execution." Once the rules are set, do not change the thresholds temporarily due to short-term market fluctuations. $ETH is around $2,685, $SOL is around $118, and the total crypto market cap has returned above $3 trillion. The fear and greed index is at 71, in the "greedy" zone. This environment of "late-stage rally with leverage buildup" is exactly when constraint triggers are most needed.
Re-trigger mechanism: When to rebalance
1. Threshold trigger (core mechanism)
Rebalance is triggered when the actual weight of any single asset deviates from the target weight by more than the set range:
Conservative: deviation ±5 percentage points
Moderate: deviation ±5 percentage points (SOL relaxed to ±7)
Aggressive: deviation ±7 percentage points (SOL relaxed to ±10)
Assets with higher elasticity have wider trigger bands to avoid frequent "face slaps" from intraday volatility.
2. Time trigger (routine check)
A comprehensive review is done at the end of each quarter. Even if no asset hits the threshold, a forced check is done to see if target weights need adjustment due to market structure changes. One quarter is enough for narrative shifts in the crypto market.
3. Event trigger (ad hoc review)
Immediate portfolio review is triggered without waiting for quarter-end if any of the following occur:
Major macro/regulatory events: e.g., procedural vote on the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" on September 16 failing to reach 60 votes, Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points on September 17
Single asset weekly price change exceeding 20% (e.g., BTC rose over 6% in one day on September 21, with over 10 billion yuan liquidations across the network)
Single asset experiencing abnormal same-direction ETF fund flows for 5 consecutive trading days (e.g., recent BTC spot ETF net inflows for 6 consecutive days, ETH net inflows for 5 consecutive days)
3. Tiered rebalancing rules: differentiated treatment for three asset types
$BTC — only reduce, never lighten; priority to maintain weight as ballast
BTC acts as a safety buffer, so its rebalancing logic is the most conservative: only slightly reduce when weight exceeds the upper limit (each reduction keeps weight within 1.1 times the target), and prioritize replenishing with stablecoins when it falls below the lower limit. It is not recommended to reduce BTC weight below target due to short-term bearish views, as that means actively giving up the portfolio's ballast role.
ETH — dynamically adjust based on staking yield narrative
ETH's long-term growth logic currently has a variable to track: Ethereum staking yield has dropped from 5.06% in June 2023 to about 2.6% (staking rate reached a historical high of 34%). More importantly, EIP-8361 proposes to further reduce the annual consensus yield to 1.2% within 18 months.
This means ETH's "yield-bearing asset" narrative is weakening. Operational rule: if staking yield falls below 2%, under the backdrop of sustained high US Treasury yields, ETH target weight should be lowered by 5 percentage points, shifting to BTC or stablecoins; if yield stabilizes and rises, restore original weight. This rule is more important than simply watching price—it corresponds to a fundamental change in ETH institutional allocation logic.
$SOL — flexible position with hard stop profit and stop loss
SOL is the most volatile part of the portfolio and must have independent hard discipline outside of rebalancing:
Take profit: when cumulative gains exceed 100%, reduce half of the flexible position to lock in profits
Stop loss: when drawdown from a stage high exceeds 40%, unconditionally reduce to the lower limit of target weight
Migration signal: if on-chain high-frequency trading and Meme ecosystem activity indicators (daily active addresses, DEX trading volume) decline for two consecutive months, indicating weakening demand migration logic, proactively reduce weight.
Execution details: how to rebalance without losses
Use stablecoins as a buffer: do not directly sell asset A to buy asset B; first sell over-allocated assets to stablecoins, then buy under-allocated assets in batches to avoid mistiming
Batch execution: split a single rebalance into 2–3 trades over 3–5 trading days to avoid extreme intraday spikes
Control transaction costs: prioritize operations during periods of best liquidity, pay attention to Gas costs for on-chain transfers, small adjustments can be deferred to the next routine check
Record keeping: document the trigger reason (threshold/time/event) and price at each rebalance to facilitate rule effectiveness review.
#SOL延续涨势，资金与链上需求共振 #Strategy wants to change the dividend payment of the four preferred stocks ($STRF, $STRC, $STRK, $STRD) to be accumulated by calendar days, including weekends and holidays, and paid on the next trading day.
On the surface, this is a technical adjustment to the payment frequency, but in essence, it targets "price stability and liquidity":
Dividends accumulated daily effectively turn preferred stocks into cash flow instruments similar to currency, so holders don't have to wait until the end of the quarter to settle, and the pricing anchor in the secondary market will be tighter.
For the #Strategy model, preferred stocks are financing tools for buying Bitcoin; the lower the financing cost and the more stable the price, the larger the BTC position that can be leveraged.
Therefore, this is not a financial detail but a link in the leverage chain—of course, the plan still awaits shareholder voting on October 28.#霍尔木兹重开现转机，油价风险溢价会降吗？ Quick Insight | Trump Rejects Iran's Seven-Day Ceasefire: A War Scheduled by the Election Calendar
Key Points: During the UN General Assembly, Iran proposed a seven-day ceasefire conditioned on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but Trump explicitly rejected it and informed aides that bombing would resume after the midterm elections in November. Behind this decision lies a blatant exchange of interests between U.S. domestic politics and the Middle East battlefield.
1. Iran's "Seven-Day Ceasefire": What Does the Proposal Look Like?
On September 25, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi revealed to the media at the UN General Assembly in New York that Iran had submitted a seven-day ceasefire proposal to the U.S. through intermediaries. The core content includes: halting all hostilities in the Middle East (including Lebanon) within seven days; the U.S. unfreezing about $12 billion of Iranian assets, lifting sanctions on Iranian oil and maritime blockades; reopening the Strait of Hormuz on the seventh day, followed immediately by comprehensive negotiations on Iran's nuclear program.
Araghchi clearly stated that it would be best to reach an agreement before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. This statement is no coincidence—the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused U.S. gasoline prices to soar, and this unpopular war has become a significant drag on the Republican Party's election prospects.
2. Trump's Response: Rejection and Plans to "Settle the Score" After the Election
According to The Wall Street Journal citing U.S. officials, Trump has rejected Iran's seven-day ceasefire proposal and told aides he expects to resume bombing Iran after the November midterm elections.
This decision was not made on a whim. Reuters reported in early September that Trump's senior aides were trying to avoid escalating the war before the midterms to minimize the impact on Republican election prospects. A White House official bluntly said, "We are continuing to pressure Iran, but the November election is the priority."
Meanwhile, there is a clear split within the White House regarding the war. The Washington Post reported that U.S. officials privately hope to end the war soon, contrasting with Trump's public tough stance. Vice President Pence and Secretary of State Rubio reportedly support maintaining relative "calm" before November.
3. How Election Politics "Hijacked" War Decisions?
The rhythm of this war is being precisely "calibrated" by the U.S. domestic political calendar.
Polling data reveals the reason. An August late Reuters/Ipsos poll showed only 31% of Americans support the war, about 63% oppose it, with voters especially unhappy about high gasoline prices. Since the conflict began, Trump's approval rating has dropped from 40% to 33%.
Republicans are "fleeing" the war. As the midterms approach, more Republican candidates are distancing themselves from Trump's Iran policy. CNN reported this "flight" is occurring in many districts where Trump once led by large margins, with defections on the Iran war issue particularly notable. The Senate recently narrowly rejected a war powers resolution 49-50, with four Republicans defecting to support ending the war, highlighting deepening party divisions.
The election calendar and war tempo are highly synchronized. Analysts note that the timing of the Trump administration's handling of Iran has changed, with the midterm election schedule directly influencing Iran policy. An official said bluntly that the White House might consider increasing military strikes on Iran after the midterms.
4. The Dangerous "Time Bomb": What Does Post-Election Escalation Mean?
Deeply linking war decisions to the election cycle is creating a highly dangerous "time bomb."
On one hand, military resources continue to be consumed during the "tactical pause." Sources reveal that the so-called restraint strategy partly aims to give the U.S. military time to replenish severely depleted ammunition stocks. The military has exhausted most of its high-precision long-range missile inventory, and top leaders of the Army, Navy, and Air Force warn that prolonging the war will be unsustainable.
On the other hand, Iran is using this "window period" to strengthen its bargaining chips. Analysts point out that after months of Iran continuously affecting Strait of Hormuz shipping without significant domestic unrest, Iranian leadership confidence has increased, and they are expected to continue attacking U.S. and allied targets. Whether the Trump administration wants it or not, it will face retaliatory pressure, potentially leading to a spiral escalation.
The greater risk is that Trump himself threatened to "annihilate Iran" in his UN speech and hinted at possibly striking Iran's Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility. Some analysts even warn that Trump might be close to "breaking the nuclear taboo," considering using nuclear weapons against Iran to end this unpopular war.
When the start, pause, and escalation of a war depend not on battlefield conditions or diplomatic negotiations but on dates on the election calendar—that itself is the greatest irony of the concept of "national security decision-making."
Iran's seven-day ceasefire proposal is essentially an opportunity window to exchange economic concessions for strategic breathing room. Trump chose to reject it, not because the proposal was inadequate, but because the timing was wrong. After November 3, "everything can be negotiated"—or "everything can be bombed."
But Tehran may not follow Washington's script. This war scheduled by the election calendar may ultimately spiral out of control in an unpredictable way before the votes are even counted. $BTC $ETH $CL #创作者激励 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 9.26｜BTC and ETH Early Session Thoughts
Today's trading idea is very clear: thin liquidity over the weekend, mainly short at high levels, no chasing longs without incremental positive news.
$BTC is currently consolidating around 84,000. After pushing up to 87,300 this week, it has continuously pulled back. The quarterly options expiry on Friday (about $14 billion in Bitcoin contracts) didn't break the market. The low held around 83,100, but the price just can't surpass 85,000-85,300. The issue isn't the candlestick itself, but the 10-year US Treasury yield approaching 5.2% and the 30-year hitting a new high since 2004, putting a lid on risk assets. Options positions have just been unwound, and with thin weekend liquidity, any short sellers sweeping liquidity could easily trigger a drop.
$ETH is around 2,690 now, moving basically in sync with BTC, repeatedly pushed back near 2,740.
The real weekend variable isn't macro data, but thin markets plus high US Treasury yields hanging overhead. Before liquidity returns on Monday, anyone chasing highs is likely to get hit. If the Asian session can't push past 85,000, BTC could retest 83,100 or even see 82,000.
Current trading plan:
BTC: Short between 84,800-85,800, target near 83,100-82,000
ETH: Short between 2,730-2,780, target near 2,660-2,580
If BTC breaks out with volume above 87,300, all shorts are invalidated; never stubbornly hold against the trend.
What do you think about this weekend's move? Will BTC first drop to 82,000 or directly break through 85,800? $GRASS surged 38% in two days, and this K-line doesn't look like an emotional impulse.
Starting from the afternoon of September 25, GRASS has been increasing volume every hour — starting at 0.50, by 20:00 that evening the hourly candle shot up +6.3% to 0.552, with trading volume three times that of the previous day. The 24h trading volume reached 37 million USD, which is solid for the AI+meme sector.
GRASS is the node token of Neural Internet, essentially a DePIN project — users contribute bandwidth and IP, and the protocol rewards tokens. The sector logic hasn't changed: as long as there is demand for AI training data, the low-cost data source logic of DePIN remains. Recently, the AI sector has warmed up overall, with $WLD and $FET both moving. GRASS, as a relatively liquid token in this sector, being rotated into by capital is not surprising.
But there is a problem here: I haven't seen a significant increase in GRASS contract holdings. The daily MACD golden cross has appeared, but that's more of a short-term signal. Whether the fundamental narrative can support this price increase is the key to holding on.
What do you think about $GRASS this time — is it sector rotation, or is there a substantial catalyst behind it?Money has come in, coins have been withdrawn, so why hasn't $BTC taken off yet?
In the past six trading days, the net subscription for the US spot Bitcoin ETF has exceeded $2.8 billion. On the other hand, Binance saw over 13,800 BTC withdrawn in one day, setting the largest single-day outflow record since 2023.
On the surface, this looks like a double positive: "institutional buying + fewer exchange-held coins." But the price hasn't cooperated: BTC remains around $84,400, about 3.4% below the September 21 high of $87,392.
Where is the misconception?
Net inflow to ETFs is real new demand; exchange outflows just mean assets have changed custody locations and cannot automatically be equated with market purchases. Withdrawals do not equal buying, nor do they mean an immediate breakout.
What the data shows now is that the potential sellable supply is decreasing, and spot demand remains. But this is not enough to declare a "breakout confirmation." What really matters is not how much BTC flows out again, but whether the price can reclaim the $86,700–$87,400 range.
If ETFs continue to attract funds and BTC recovers this range, then the capital structure can be confirmed by the price; if money keeps coming in but the price still can't break through, then the supply pressure at high levels needs to be reassessed.
In short: the bullish factors are real, but the market hasn't concluded yet. BTC doesn't lack stories; it's stuck at the "price confirmation" stage. #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ Lately, I've been a bit off in my market focus. I used to keep my eyes on $BTC all the time, but today I actually think $CL crude oil is more worth watching.
There's an interesting development on the US-Iran front: Iran has proposed that if the US reduces military pressure and lifts the blockade, the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within 7 days; the market has already started pricing in this expectation. $WTI has fallen from nearly $96 a few days ago down to around $92 on Friday. But on the other hand, the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia mean supply risks haven't truly disappeared.
This is actually very critical for BTC.
If oil continues to fall, the market's worries about "energy shock → inflation → higher interest rates" will ease a bit, and risk assets will naturally feel more comfortable; but if the Strait of Hormuz runs into trouble again and oil prices get pushed back up, high-volatility assets like BTC will likely face another round of pressure.
BTC dropped from around 87,200 to about 82,900 a few days ago, then recovered yesterday, and is still hovering around 84,000. At this level, going long or short is easy to get slapped.
I've now set a very simple observation for myself: first see if CL can continue to hold down, then see if BTC can stabilize above 84,000.
If oil falls and BTC holds steady, risk appetite can be said to have truly returned; if oil suddenly rallies again while BTC is still grinding near 84,000, I'd rather trade less than take positions to bet on the next piece of news.
My biggest takeaway these days is: when trading news, don't just look at the headlines; see if the headlines actually move the price. #US Treasury long-term yields continue to rise, financing pressure heats up
US Treasury yields are skyrocketing, should BTC really be cautious this time?
Don't get distracted by the small ups and downs in the crypto market; the real big money is now focused on US Treasuries.
The 10-year yield once surged to 5.2%, the 30-year yield is approaching 5.46%, hitting a 22-year high; the US 30-year mortgage rate also surged to 7.45%.
What does this mean? Dollar funding is getting more expensive.
The Fed's rate hike expectations haven't disappeared, the government keeps issuing debt, and companies are competing for funds, so it's not easy for long-term yields to drop quickly.
Here’s the problem: with risk-free returns over 5%, why would institutions take bigger risks chasing BTC or ETH?
With high interest rates persisting, real estate, corporate financing, stock and crypto asset valuations will all be under pressure. If liquidity continues to tighten, the crypto market will find it hard to stay unaffected.
So I'm not in a hurry to go heavy now. You can miss the market, but there's no need to hand over your principal just to try to catch the bottom. When the US Treasury yield curve relaxes, that might be the real key to whether the next round of risk assets perform well.
$BTC $ETH 【Pre-market Must-Read #4｜09-26】
Market breadth 1.86, temperature is spring.
There aren't many opportunities, I'm picking selectively.
Today I scanned 200 coins. Only 15 passed the gate.
Temperature is spring, BTC weekly is still bullish, breadth 1.86.
Here are the 5 coins with the highest probability (the main score is on another list, for midday breakdown):
AAPL｜Probability 81.8｜Main score 73｜🅱️ wait for pullback｜Entry 331.0｜Distance from 26-week high +1.0%
BNB｜Probability 73.4｜Main score 59｜🅾️ wait for breakout｜Entry 781.9｜Distance from 26-week high +0.6%
POL｜Probability 72.2｜Main score -｜🚀 chase on the spot｜Entry 0.117｜Distance from 26-week high +9.6%
LIT｜Probability 71.4｜Main score 58｜🚀 chase on the spot｜Entry 4.855｜Distance from 26-week high +9.7%
ETHFI｜Probability 70.3｜Main score 64｜🚀 chase on the spot｜Entry 0.7195｜Distance from 26-week high +8.2%
Entry points are given by the system, verified one by one afterward.
Stop loss is a matter of position management — will break down separately next time.
Who to break down tomorrow? USELESS, RAY, ZEC — comment the name, the one with the most votes.
(Parameters and weights are not disclosed, not investment advice.)#霍尔木兹重开现转机，油价风险溢价会降吗？ Secret talks between the US and Iran in New York aim for a phased ceasefire, with hopes to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to fall in response. As of now, $BZ (Brent) is around $97.67, $CL (WTI) is about $92.69, and supply risks have not been fully resolved. 👉🏻Short-term impact: Negotiation news directly reduces panic sentiment, with both major crude oils showing significant pullbacks on Friday. BZ and CL are under pressure simultaneously, short-term volatility is likely to increase, and the market is first digesting the expectation that "the situation may cool down." 👉🏻Long-term impact: Even if the Strait reopens and the blockade is lifted, shipping recovery and inventory replenishment will take time. Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities continue, so physical supply tightness has not immediately disappeared. Similar agreements have collapsed before, so before a full recovery, oil prices are unlikely to crash significantly and will still have support in the medium term. 👉🏻Overall judgment: Undoubtedly, the overall bias is bearish📉. Negotiation expectations fuel the bears, increasing short-term downward pressure on oil prices; however, supply risks are not fully cleared, limiting the decline, and the tug-of-war between bulls and bears will continue. 👉🏻Advice for beginners: Don't just short based on "good negotiation news," nor buy the dip immediately after a drop. Geopolitical news comes and goes quickly; combine real-time quotes, inventory data, and actual shipping flows to avoid being misled by a single news item. 👉🏻Is it suitable to enter the market now: Currently, blind shorting or bottom-fishing is not recommended. Although prices have fallen from highs, volatility remains high; wait for substantial progress in negotiations or supply[9/26 Crypto Morning Post · Leverage Cleansing Perspective] It's not a "positive catalyst," but a "bull deleveraging day." 🌐 Macroeconomic valuation pressure: tariffs, inflation, and rate cut expectations tug back and forth. → Risk assets hit valuations first, turning BTC from "leader in risk assets" to "macro sentiment thermometer." Goldman Sachs traders called Monday's flash crash a leading signal: it's not the crypto world's own issue, but the entire risk appetite is slowing down. ₿ Mainstream Coins: BTC Defends Moving Average, ETH Worse - BTC: Fluctuating near 109,000, 110,000 is a psychological level, below the 200-day moving average is "not fun" - ETH: After falling below 4000, the technical bear market narrative begins, institutional inflows cool, and Treasury companies' cost lines are being tested - SOL / AVAX / DOGE: 7-day decline is even worse than ETH, SOL -21%, DOGE -19% → This round is not a "coin drop," but a "high-β wipe out." 💥 Liquidation: Bullish sacrifice 24-hour liquidations ~26–290,000 people, amount 880–1.2 billion dollars; ETH, SOL, XPL lead the list, Hyperliquid has recorded the largest single ETH liquidation. Conclusion: Leveraged bulls are being washed down, and short positions actually get little profit. 🏛 Regulators: China has also included RWA Latest multi-departmental approach targeting "real-world asset tokenization" and Chinese-funded overseas services: - Domestic RWA issuance/intermediary/IT services ≈ illegal financial activities$BTC BTC has been like stagnant water this week, don't give me sideways instead of a drop, what I need is a crash. 85000 is a resistance, tested three times, highest at 85255, each time it gets close it gets pushed back to around 84000. 83183 is support, but below that there are 82800 and 82000. Now at 83812, stuck in the middle, can't go up or down.
Conditions to go up: volume increase and break above 85000, then look towards 86800. Signal to go down: break below 83000 and fall straight down, 82000 might not even hold. Hurry up and crash, big brother, bring zec down with it.$ZHIPU This isn't a rebound; it's like CPR for my short account, right? Dodged a fake breakout, and now it's real money—finally cashing in on the short position.
Last night at dawn, I was watching ZHIPU, heavily suppressed above, every rally just short of breath, volume didn't keep up, heavy false bullish signals. I signaled to short around 117.96 with one logic: no one is there to catch the rise.
The market waits to be played, profits come from holding. Risk control is being rational upfront; cutting losses later is called decisive action.
Just checked again, price has already dropped to 81.12, short position floating profit +624.78%, feeling good brothers, this meat tastes really good. After some hesitation earlier, this move is truly sweet.
Take profit on 80% now, lock it in; keep 20% at cost price as protection. If it continues to drop, let profits run; if it rebounds, don't give profits back. Now is not the time to chase highs, easy to get stuck at the peak. I'll signal the next comfortable entry point immediately.
$DOGE $LAB Under the US dollar system 2.0 framework, the binding of stablecoins and tokenized gold is reconstructing the underlying logic of the crypto circle. In 2025, the total market capitalization of the crypto market will decline by 10.4% to $3 trillion, but the market value of stablecoins will surge by 48.9% to $311 billion. During the same period, gold will rise by 62.6%, while Bitcoin will fall by 6.4%. This divergence reflects the market's re-anchoring on credit carriers. As the world's largest stablecoin issuer, Tether's gold holdings reached 146 tons in Q2 2026, with a market value of about $18.8 billion, ranking among the top 30 gold-holding institutions globally. Its issued XAUT gold token has a market value exceeding $3.3 billion, accounting for more than 50% of the global gold-backed stablecoin market. Each XAUT is backed 1:1 by physical gold that meets LBMA standards. This "stablecoin + gold" dual endorsement model injects a credit foundation into crypto assets. For the crypto circle, this transformation brings structural impacts: first, capital flow reconstruction, with traditional gold investors entering the crypto market through tokenized gold, and crypto investors using it as a volatility hedging tool. In Q1 2026, tokenized gold spot trading volume reached $90.7 billion, surpassing the 2025 full-year record of $84.6 billion, accounting for about one-fifth of the total RWA market value; second, market structure reshaping, with crypto exchanges and DeFi ecosystems accelerating the integration of gold tokens, making XAUT and others important underlying assets in on-chain finance; third, compliance logic reconstruction, as tokenized gold, with its auditable underlying assets, becomes an important breakthrough for the compliance of crypto assets. $BTC PHA current price is 0.085, the 4-hour level has already pierced through the upper Bollinger Band, MACD red bars continue to expand, RSI is approaching the overbought zone. On the CoinGlass liquidation map, there is a large cluster of short forced liquidations between 0.086 and 0.088. If the price pushes up a bit more at this level, shorts will be forced to cover, causing a stampede-style surge. But with RSI overbought and breaking the upper band, a short-term pullback is possible at any time, so don't chase the highs.
Just opened the security booth window for some fresh air, a car downstairs is blocking the fire lane, I called out a couple of times on the walkie-talkie. Back to watching the market.
The direction favors longs, but wait for a pullback. Enter gradually between 0.082 and 0.0835, set stop loss below 0.079, defense is clear. First take profit at 0.088, second target at 0.092. If it breaks through 0.088 with volume and doesn't look back, you can lightly add a position, take profit at 0.095, stop loss at 0.086. Keep position size light, the risk-reward ratio here isn't optimal, pullbacks are the comfortable entry points. The short liquidation zone is fuel, but before the fuel burns out, survival comes first.
$PHA
#Muse加速扩张，MetaAI投入或迎来变现
@OKX星球 Muse reached 2.8 million downloads in 12 days
$META's AI investment is finally starting to pay off!
Meta's current AI market rally is coming faster than expected.
Since Muse launched on September 8, it has already hit 2.8 million downloads in 12 days, climbing to the top ranks of the App Store. More importantly, it is not a completely free traffic product but directly offers $20 and $100 subscription tiers.
The market has begun to reprice this development. Since Muse's release, Meta's stock price has risen over 20%, and Wall Street's focus has shifted from "how much money Meta burns annually on AI" to "how much new revenue AI can actually bring to Meta."
Meta's biggest advantage in the past was its billions of users. Now, if Muse can further convert these users into AI subscriptions, transactions, and enterprise API revenue, the business model will no longer rely solely on advertising.
AI truly entering a large-scale monetization phase may happen faster than many expect.
#Muse加速扩张，MetaAI投入或迎来变现 关键点位： · 阻力：2710，2744，2783 · 支撑：2660，2620 日内操作建议： 1. 反抽空 · 入场：2710-2718夺不回 · 止损：2722 · 目标：2665 → 2658 2. 回踩多 · 入场：2665-2658止跌 · 止损：2648 · 目标：2700附近 3. 放量多（激进） · 入场：放量站回2710、回踩不破 · 止损：2696 · 目标：2744附近 昨晚老美开盘不给力，没学欧盘上冲一波，反倒没守住2710。2744差一脚没推开，缩仓磨回2690，现在卡在4小时中轨上、2710门下。 看法不变：2710夺回来才算修复，夺不回接着磨。 点位跟昨天几乎一样，不是照抄——是这个箱体压根没走出去：昨天最猛那一小时，量柱6亿、持仓冲到16.9亿，2744都没推开，留了根长上影就缩了回来。 典型的假突破，不是被砸的，是钱自己撤的——获利盘了结。所以下面塌不深：2626和2665两针都被买回来过，有承接也是真的。 可上面断了粮——再冲2744得有新钱，而持仓两天躺平在低位，费率也归零了，大户还减到了空的那边。 周六没美股也没CME，量本来就薄，破位真假都得$ONE going up is called value discovery, going down is called shakeout and accumulation, sideways is called gathering momentum, going to zero is called paying tuition; positive news pumps the price, negative news dumps it, everything is controlled by the market maker, don't ask, just have faith, keep a steady mindset. $BTC is a bit "out of breath" today, as the US 10-year Treasury yield soared to 5.18%, hitting a new high since 2007. Funds are flowing into bonds, and Bitcoin is struggling around $84,000. Worse still, the exchange Bitget was hacked, losing about $350 million in crypto assets, marking the largest hack incident so far in 2026. Market sentiment is clearly shaken, but JPMorgan believes that if Bitcoin can hold above the $85,000 production cost line, miners' pressure will ease significantly.
$ETH slightly rose near $2,688, breaking out of a year-long downtrend, which is a positive signal. However, the $2,800 level was rejected twice within a week, indicating considerable selling pressure above.
$SOL is the star of the day, with its price surging to around $122, a near six-month high. The Fed's public consultation on new stablecoin regulations added fuel to SOL, and in September, SOL staking increased by nearly $300 million with 2.83 million tokens, showing continuous capital inflow.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 BlackRock's portfolio is officially on-chain
$ONDO is not just hyping the RWA concept this time!
Ondo just launched three Intelligent Portfolios, all based on investment strategies developed exclusively for Ondo by BlackRock.
Simply put, previously what was on-chain was a single US stock, an ETF, or a government bond; now what's on-chain is "an entire portfolio."
The three products cover high yield, diversified growth, and high growth strategies respectively. Users holding one Token can gain exposure to the entire portfolio, and subsequent rebalancing can be automatically executed according to rules.
This development has a direct significance for RWA: tokenization is evolving from "putting assets on-chain" to "putting traditional asset management products on-chain."
So regarding $ONDO's recent price increase, what I care about more is not how much it rose in one day, but that a traditional asset management institution of BlackRock's caliber has started directly providing investment strategies for on-chain products.
$ONDO #Ondo推出基于贝莱德策略的代币化投资组合