Why do people who made big profits in one market cycle tend to lose more easily in the next? When I first entered the crypto space, I thought those who made big money had more experience and would only earn more in the next cycle. Later, I realized that success in the previous cycle can sometimes be more dangerous than failure. In a bull market, everything goes up, making it easy to mistake market gains for personal skill. After the account multiplies several times, positions get larger, stop losses get farther, and even ordinary returns feel unworthy. Having made tenfold gains last cycle, a 30% rise next cycle feels too little. I have also experienced this kind of inflation. After hitting the main trend in a certain cycle, I mistakenly thought I understood the market, then tried to replicate the same method in another phase. But chasing gains works in a bull market, while in a sideways market it leads to repeated losses; diversifying holdings works when altcoins rise broadly, but after liquidity shrinks, you’re left with a bunch of tokens no one wants to buy. The hardest thing to admit is: making money depends both on skill and the cycle’s favor. When the market environment changes, previously correct experience can become the most costly obsession. Before each market cycle starts, you should treat yourself as someone who needs to prove themselves again: re-examine liquidity, reassess position size, and accept that "this time it might not be so easy to make money." Remember: the real danger is not having never made big money, but after making it, writing luck into your personal skill manual.

Next week: This round of pullback may not be over yet; it depends on where support is found! My judgment: Within a week, the probability of first dipping then recovering is higher, with overall weak volatility; there are currently no conditions to directly restart the main upward trend. Previously, $BTC surged into the $80,000 resistance zone. I do not recommend chasing the rally. Now the price has fallen about 6% from $81,500, retesting $75,000–$76,000, indicating that the overhead relief and profit-taking pressure is indeed heavy. Technically, it has shifted from offense to repair. Daily MACD shows a high-level death cross, histogram turning green, with a clear weakening of upward momentum, but the KDJ J value has already dropped below zero, indicating short-term selling pressure is releasing quickly. Continuing to short now is also not cost-effective. From $57,800 to $81,500, the 38.2% retracement level is about $72,400, and the 50% retracement level is about $69,600. Key levels to watch next: $74,000–$75,500: Holding here could lead to a rebound above $78,000 $72,000–$73,000: Quick recovery still counts as normal repair $69,000–$70,000: Losing daily support indicates the strong rebound structure is broken This pullback is the first pressure test after the rebound. The most important thing in the coming week is to observe whether ETFs, U.S. stocks, and spot buying are willing to re-enter between $72,000 and $75,000. #BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验

WTI has risen from about $68 in July to a higher low, currently breaking through the long-term downtrend line and reaching around $88. Technically, it has strengthened, but the $88 to $92 range remains a dense resistance zone. How high it can rise next depends not on demand but on whether geopolitical risks cause actual supply disruptions. This round of increase is mainly driven by US-Iran clashes, attacks on oil tankers, and restricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is again at its lowest level since 1982, and the market is repricing supply risks. OPEC+ plans to increase production by about 188,000 barrels per day in September, but war and transport restrictions may keep some of this increase only on paper, merely capping oil prices and making it difficult to immediately eliminate geopolitical premiums. If WTI holds above $90, inflation and rate hike expectations may rebound, US Treasury yields will also face upward pressure, benefiting energy stocks relatively, while technology, consumer, aviation, and BTC sectors need to guard against a stronger dollar and tightening liquidity. I tend to think Trump will continue to use military pressure as leverage for negotiations in September while pushing for increased production to control oil prices. He needs to suppress Iran and does not want high oil prices to backfire on inflation. The baseline range for September is expected to be $82–$95. If it holds above $92 and conflicts escalate, it could reach $95 to $100; if negotiations resume and shipping routes improve, it may fall back to $80–$83. This is not the time to chase highs or rush to test the top. Wait for geopolitical premiums to cool down and for technical structures to weaken before judging the turning point.

#OKX Million Planner｜After 1 million U, the most valuable thing is not the rate of return, but the right of choice. If I had 1 million U, in the next 30 days I would trade according to a script: BTC will most likely fluctuate widely between 70,000 and 83,000, and only reprice after breaking out of this range. So I won’t bet on a direction all at once. 400,000 core position: BTC + ETH Start buying BTC in batches around 75,000, the closer to 70,000, the heavier the position. The core position is not for guessing the lowest point, but to ensure I’m on board when the real start happens. 200,000 strategy position: Grid + Dual Currency Win As long as the 70,000–83,000 range is not effectively broken, let the oscillation make money for me. But the grid is not a money printer, and dual currency win is not a deposit. Once a one-sided trend forms, the strategy immediately exits. 100,000 offensive position: Futures + Options No bottom fishing, no top guessing, only right-side trades after confirmation, with single trade risk controlled within 1% of total assets. Options mainly serve as hedges. Relying on high leverage to double 1 million is essentially booking the next zero. 300,000 cash position: This is the soul of the whole allocation If volume stands firm above 83,000, take some funds to follow the breakout; if it effectively breaks below 70,000, don’t rush to bottom fish, wait for leverage cleanup and panic release before buying truly cheap chips. My million-dollar account has only one principle: When rising, I hold positions; when oscillating, I collect rent; when crashing, I have cash; if I’m wrong, I admit it. The real advantage of 1 million is never about buying more, but that when the market doesn’t offer good prices, I can completely choose not to buy.

Why do trading methods with very high win rates end up more likely to blow up? When I first started trading, I was especially superstitious about win rates. Making a profit eight out of ten times seemed much more reliable than only four out of ten. Later, I realized that win rate is just surface-level; the profit and loss structure determines whether you can survive. Grid trading, holding losing positions, and continuously adding to positions often create very attractive win rates. In a ranging market, every pullback can unlock losses, and after several months with almost no losses, confidence grows and position sizes increase. Until the market experiences a true one-sided trend, and all the small profits from dozens of trades are wiped out in one go. I used to have a "rarely stop loss" method. The account curve looked stable, and friends thought I had found the holy grail. But it wasn’t about accurate judgment; it was about postponing loss realization. Eventually, when extreme market conditions hit, small losses turned into big losses, and big losses became unmanageable positions. A strategy can’t be judged only by how many times it wins; you also have to consider how much you lose when you’re wrong once, and whether you can survive consecutive mistakes. Winning nine times, earning 1% each time, but losing 30% on the tenth time — a high win rate is just a slow path to sudden bankruptcy. Trading isn’t a test scored by the number of correct answers. Remember: win rate makes you feel smart, but the profit-loss ratio and risk limits determine whether you can stay in the market long term.

The Nasdaq is currently fluctuating around 30,000, and what really needs caution is that several attempts to break through the 30,000 mark have not been supported by significant incremental funds. From the trend perspective, the highs continue to move lower, and the price is once again being suppressed by the descending trendline of the rounded top. The rounded top has not fully formed yet, but the market has already shifted from a one-sided rise to high-level rotation. September is likely to determine the medium-term direction going forward. The September interest rate decision is not about a rate cut, but whether to raise rates or keep them unchanged. After Wash's hawkish stance, expectations for a rate hike have clearly intensified. If employment data is strong, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar may continue to rise, putting further pressure on tech stock valuations. If employment cools moderately and inflation falls in tandem, the Federal Reserve will hold steady, giving the market room to recover. If employment suddenly deteriorates, the rate hike benefits may not support the stock market, and funds might shift to trading recession risks. Therefore, my baseline judgment for the Nasdaq in September is a weak consolidation. The main resistance zone is between 29,700 and 30,100 points. Without volume to reclaim this area, any rebound here is more suitable for reducing positions rather than chasing gains. If it breaks below 29,000 points, the next target is 28,500 points. A daily volume-supported break below 28,500 points would further confirm the rounded top, with downside targets near 28,000 and 27,200 points. Conversely, only by firmly reclaiming 30,100 points will the top risk ease, and the index will have a chance to challenge 30,900 points again. In September, defense should be the priority, but there is no need to prematurely bet on a crash. The shape resembling a top is not important; a rebound without volume and support breakdowns are the true signals of a bearish turn.

Why is it that prices often immediately rebound after a stop loss, and why is this the easiest way to ruin a trader? Over the years of trading, I've found that the hardest thing isn't the stop loss itself, but that right after hitting the stop loss, the market moves back in the original direction. After experiencing this several times, a trader starts to doubt their discipline. The next time the price hits the stop loss level, the thought is: "Wait a bit longer, last time I was just shaken out." But this time, the market doesn't pull back, and the position goes from a manageable small loss to a deep trap. I used to be tormented by this kind of "stop loss missed opportunity". Twice in a row, I cut my position only to see a rebound, and the third time I simply canceled the stop loss and even added to the position. The small profits missed in the first two times were never recovered, and when the trend truly broke on the third time, I ended up doubling my losses to the market at once. Stop loss is not a forecasting tool; it only limits losses from expanding further after the buying logic fails. A rebound after a stop loss only means the exit wasn't executed perfectly, but it doesn't prove that risk management was wrong. The most dangerous thing in trading is to reject a long-term effective rule based on a single random outcome. The market occasionally rewards mistakes and punishes correctness, but over time, unlimited losses will eventually encounter that irreversible big bearish candle. Remember: missing out on profits after a stop loss is just missing one trade; but giving up on stop losses out of fear of missing out might mean missing the next opportunity to stay at the table.

Always remember: Being flashy is destined to be short-lived, whether it's wealth, business, or life itself. Develop quietly and steadily, don't be reckless; being flashy and reckless always involves a scheme! Wealth fears showing off the most, business fears expansion the most, trading fears getting carried away the most, and people fear overestimating themselves in favorable conditions. Especially in trading over the years, I've seen too many people not die in a bear market, but die from the confidence given by the previous bull market. That's why I increasingly like an old saying: The best warriors have no glorious achievements. Truly mature people don't need to prove themselves in every battle. Don't act when you don't understand; wait when the opportunity isn't good enough; when you earn money beyond your ability, first put some in your pocket; know when to play the fool and when to admit defeat. Living is more important than face. Principal is more important than stories. Time is more important than momentary wins or losses. The real big winners in life are often not the fastest runners, but those who, after others build tall towers, host banquets, and the towers collapse, look back—and they are still at the table. So now I increasingly believe: small money relies on courage, big money relies on fate, but guarding big money relies on restraint. Life is long, and the market will not close. Not every opportunity belongs to you, and you don't need to be part of every excitement. Hide your edge, keep it simple, speak less, do more. Only those who survive the cycles have the right to talk about compound interest in the end.

Why does it seem like most people's accounts are in a bear market even though BTC is clearly in a bull run? I used to think that as long as BTC went up, altcoins would eventually catch up. But after several market cycles, I realized that a bull market is never a universal rally; it's about liquidity distribution. Institutional funds buy BTC because it has ETFs, depth, and exit channels; ecosystem funds chase ETH and SOL because there are still users and trading volume there. The remaining tens of thousands of altcoin projects are competing for increasingly limited attention. When BTC rises 10%, they might only go up 3%; when BTC pulls back 5%, they fall 20% first. I used to convince myself to hold long-term by saying "it rose dozens of times in the last bull market," but the project narratives are outdated, tokens are still unlocking continuously, and teams and early investors sell chips every month, while truly new buying interest is dwindling. What comes is not a catch-up rally, but a slow death of liquidity. To judge whether it's a bull market, you can't just look at BTC, nor assume your coins are benefiting just because the overall market is up. You have to see where the funds are flowing, whether the assets are strengthening relative to BTC, and if there is real spot buying support during the rise. The market entering a bull run doesn't mean your holdings have entered a bull run. Remember: the bull market determines if there is money in the market; the flow of funds determines who can make money. Altcoins without liquidity support may never see spring no matter how long they wait.

Above $80,000, who will take the profit chips? After returning to $80,000, the market has entered a new phase. The first half of the rise was mainly driven by improved macro liquidity, ETF inflows, and short covering. How much higher it can go in the second half depends on whether spot funds are willing to continue taking over. From $57,800 to $81,500, $BTC has rebounded nearly 40%. The trend turning stronger is no longer much disputed. The current question is how heavy the selling pressure is above. The two red circles in the chart correspond to the same chip concentration area. Funds that bought here in May are finally close to breaking even, and chips entered near $60,000 have also gained considerable profits. With both break-even and profit-taking chips being realized, it’s not surprising that BTC is stuck around $78,000. Essentially, this is a high-level turnover. Currently, the upward momentum has begun to weaken. If BTC repeatedly tests $80,000 but volume fails to expand, beware of a false breakout followed by a quick pullback, which would also clear high-level leverage. If there is volume-supported buying between $72,000 and $74,000 and the price quickly recovers, it indicates effective turnover, and there may be opportunities to push toward $85,000 later. Conversely, if ETF inflows resume, U.S. stocks stabilize, and BTC continuously closes above $82,000, it means these trapped chips are being digested, and the next target could be $88,000 to $92,000. No need to rush to guess the top next week; first, watch the chips around $80,000 to see if the market can hold them.